1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM, 5 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 1: the King of Sports Books. I'm your host today, Brendan Lashi, 6 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: joined by Billy Ward and Brian Vonseca. Today we're talking 7 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: UFC UFC betting preview. We make our way to UFC 8 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: Fight Night at the Apex down in Las Vegas. Looking 9 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: forward to this one. No Shanzarilo today, I'm gonna spend 10 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: a quick second on this Shonzilo's birthday. 11 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 3: Today, Happy birthday. 12 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: I haven't spoke to Zillo since Tuesday. Wednesday we did 13 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: a baseball pod. I love Shonzarillo works as ass off, 14 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: one of the best contributors at Action Network. I thoroughly 15 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: enjoy Shonzillo, his analysis, all of it. He asked our 16 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: producer for the day off for his birthday. 17 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 3: Just asking for the day off and of itself is deserved. 18 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: But now we all know it's Shanzrello's birthday, which is 19 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:16,199 Speaker 1: great for Sean. 20 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:18,199 Speaker 3: I hope he has a great day. Has nothing to do. 21 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 1: With the day, but the fact is it was put 22 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: in our rundown, which now kind of our producer's fault 23 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: in the way. 24 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 3: Now I have to go out of. 25 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 1: My way to tech Zarrillo happy birthday because he's now 26 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: brought it to our attention by taking the day off. 27 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 4: I just wanted to say happy birthday. 28 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 1: It's not about taking the day off. That's fine, but 29 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: just take the day off. 30 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 3: So I don't know. I get it. 31 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: I do, And he's going to be back next week 32 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: because and we'll get We're going to get back to 33 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: the birthday thing. 34 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 3: It's just kind of I don't know what it is. 35 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 3: It just irks me. 36 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: That's just my that's my for the day that no 37 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: one cares about. I come on here normally te up 38 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: Billy and Sean. Brian's here today and I just get. 39 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 3: Out of the way. The birthday thing just I don't 40 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 3: know what it is. It just goes right up my bum. 41 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 3: I don't get it. 42 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 4: I hate birthdays, you know that, right. 43 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: Zarella will be back though next week because Payoff Pitch 44 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: returns Action Network's MLB betting podcast. 45 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 3: He's back next week for some more division. 46 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: Previews are regular Payoff Pitch regular shows throughout the week Mondays, Tuesdays, 47 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: and Fridays. That starts back up very soon because you 48 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: have the Korea series that starts next week, so regularly 49 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: scheduled payoff. 50 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 3: Pitch programming returns. 51 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 1: Also, if you're interested, Big Bets on Campus has you 52 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: covered from March Madness Selection Sunday is coming up this 53 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,839 Speaker 1: coming Sunday. They'll have a ton of stuff getting out 54 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 1: for brackets and also BBOC will have you covered each 55 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 1: day of the tournament, so Thursday through Sunday, those first 56 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: couple of weekends. And of course Billy and Brian are 57 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 1: here this week for the UFC Betting preview. Quick heads up, 58 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: The great State of North Carolina officially launched sports betting 59 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: this week, so if you're in the tar Heel State, 60 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: take advantage of the best sign up offers across every 61 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 1: sports book. You can find a link to every one 62 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: of those offers in the description of this episode. All 63 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: the North Carolina offers all in one place. Just check 64 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: out the link in the episode description. I'll take it 65 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: to Billy first because actually it all ties in because 66 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 1: one of the fighters in the main event this week, 67 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: it's his birthday this weekend too, and that's all It's 68 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: gonna get all juiced up for the weekend because he 69 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: leans into the extra curriculars. Who might that be, Billy 70 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,239 Speaker 1: and does that factor into your luck ratings? With a 71 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:26,679 Speaker 1: thirty first birthday celebration. 72 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, happy birthday tie to Ivasa. 73 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 5: You know, as a gift, the UFC stuck him in 74 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 5: the apex in front of zero fans and no one 75 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 5: to hand him shoes filled with beer. So a little 76 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 5: bit sad about that. You know, the man deserves a 77 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 5: pact arena with people going crazy. Here is silly walk 78 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 5: out songs all that, But no, it doesn't really affect 79 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 5: my analysis too much. 80 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 4: Don't think it should matter. 81 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 5: I do hope someone gives him like a cupcake and 82 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 5: a shoe, or maybe a cake in the shape of 83 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 5: a shoe, something along those lines, just to mark the occasion. 84 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 4: And he's taken on Marcy and Tiber. 85 00:03:57,520 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 5: You know, Tui Vasa's kind of fallen on hard times lately, 86 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 5: lost his last three in a row, all finishes. I 87 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 5: think at this point in his career, we know he's 88 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 5: not a title contender. He's not going to be a 89 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 5: guy who's in the top three, top five of the division. 90 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 5: But he can still put on fun fights and he 91 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 5: can kind of be a gatekeeper to the top ten. 92 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 4: He's you know, he's rank number nine right now. Tiber 93 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 4: is right behind him at ten. 94 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 5: I think that's about what we should expect from tu've 95 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 5: Asto moving forward, even though at thirty one is still 96 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 5: pretty young for the division. Anyone who's watched him knows 97 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:26,559 Speaker 5: what he does. You know, big power in both hands, 98 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 5: mixes in good elbows and knees, almost zero interest in defense, 99 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:32,280 Speaker 5: and he had a granite chin for a long time. 100 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 5: You know, took the best shots from Derek Lewis. Serro 101 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 5: Ghan was unloading on him to the head, couldn't really 102 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 5: put him down with head shots. Finally went to the 103 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 5: body before he could put him down. We've seen that 104 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 5: crack a little bit though. You know, he's been knocked 105 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 5: out in two of his last three. Pavlovitch dropped him 106 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 5: real bad twice and under a minute Volkov knocked him down. 107 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 5: It looks like if he watched the replay, that might 108 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 5: have been more of a headbutt. So I'm not as 109 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 5: worried about that one. And it just really comes down 110 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 5: to the chin here. You know, Tiber is not a 111 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 5: big power puncher. A lot of decisions by heavyweight standards, 112 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 5: Tiber is kind of just okay at everything. He doesn't 113 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 5: really have one thing he's awesome at nothing. He's you know, 114 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 5: horribly bad at either. So it just it depends on 115 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 5: whether to tuiy Vasa can just land a big shot 116 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 5: before he gets taken down or sat on the ground. 117 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 5: The interesting thing here for twey Vasa, this is his 118 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 5: first fight in the UFC APEX cage and his whole 119 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 5: UFC cur He's only fought in big cages. He's also 120 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 5: pretty short with a limited reach for heavyweight. Also not 121 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 5: a great grappler, so there's kind of two angles on that, 122 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 5: you know, if you think this is going to turn 123 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 5: into a grappling match. The smaller cage helps Tibura, but 124 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 5: on the tuey Vasa side, he doesn't have as much 125 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 5: ground recovery, doesn't have to chase down a bigger, taller fighter. 126 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 5: I actually think that favors him. If you watch most 127 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 5: of his fights, he's always coming forward, always stalking his opponents, 128 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 5: always trying to close the gap. That's going to be 129 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 5: easier in this small cage. So that's, you know, that's 130 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 5: really what puts me over to his side here. As 131 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 5: well as being seven and a half years younger than Tibera, 132 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 5: so ty Toyvasa minus one ten. Brian's going to explain 133 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 5: why you could get a little bit better price on 134 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 5: the knockout odds. That's overwhelmingly likely way he is going 135 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 5: to win. The price difference just isn't enough for me, 136 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 5: but I can certainly see it so well that Brian 137 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 5: set me up on why that's the way to play 138 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 5: this one. 139 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:12,720 Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, Tuviasa has come down, his numbers come down 140 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: in that minus one ten minus one fifteen range after 141 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 1: three straight knockout losses. 142 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 3: How would you like to bet this, Brian? This main 143 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 3: event UFC Fight Night eighty eight, I. 144 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 6: Mean generally tied to Ivasa has won one way throughout 145 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 6: his VMA career, and that's by finishing off people knockout 146 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:34,159 Speaker 6: or technical knockout. This is a ridiculously potentially explosive fight 147 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 6: on paper because he's involved. I got him at plus 148 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,039 Speaker 6: one ten to win by knockout or TKO. We'll see 149 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:43,480 Speaker 6: where that is around opening bottle time. But you know, 150 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 6: he's got thirteen of his fourteen wins by knockout, eleven 151 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 6: of those in the first round, and I think you know, 152 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 6: we'll get into more later on the best best portion 153 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 6: of this why I like this fight even more for him, 154 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 6: even though in combat sports betting, I do not love 155 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 6: betting on somebody who has three losses going into a fight, 156 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 6: this being an exception, because like Billy just said, Typerrows 157 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 6: is kind of okay at everything, even though you know 158 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 6: jiu jitsu black belt, like, let's let's not take that 159 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 6: away from him, right, Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt also 160 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 6: has some explosiveness in his arsenal as well, but Taitu 161 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 6: Avasa is just like this is this is pretty much 162 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 6: a fight in my opinion, that's set up for him 163 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 6: to sort of get back on track, get back start 164 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 6: building back up a winning streak again where his opponent 165 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 6: is dangerous but not as dangerous as he is. He's 166 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 6: going to push the action right away as he often does. 167 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 6: Typeeruro has also been stopped five times in his career 168 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 6: by knockout or technical knockouts, so I think that's something 169 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 6: to keep in mind, like once that happens several different 170 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 6: times in combat sports, like yeah, you get chinny and 171 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:51,679 Speaker 6: his chin will be tested like pretty much from the opening, 172 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 6: and I think that you know, you mix that with 173 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 6: his age thirty eight years old, to Avasa is one 174 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 6: of these dudes who he's not here for a long time. 175 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 6: He's here for a good time. So I think he's 176 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 6: going to win by knockout in emphatic fashion. And I'm 177 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 6: actually disappointed that his fight is at the Apex. I 178 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 6: don't know why we're still doing cards at the Apex 179 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 6: quite frankly, but you know, because I feel like this 180 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 6: is something that could delight a crowd on a card 181 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 6: that's probably not one of the strongest of the year, 182 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 6: I would say, but the main event could be explosive, 183 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 6: and I think Tied to a Vasa is going to 184 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 6: be a big reason for that. 185 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 5: What I say is, you know, not exceptionally good at anything. 186 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 5: I do mean relative to other guys in the UFC. Yeah, right, 187 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 5: Like he walks into and jiu jitsu jim, you know, 188 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:36,199 Speaker 5: across the country, he's going to dominate it as a 189 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,199 Speaker 5: black belt, But if you look at how he's performed 190 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 5: against other UFC fighters, he's not dominating people on the ground. 191 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 5: His knockdown rate is actually lower than the UFC average 192 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 5: for any weight class, and he's a heavyweight, so that 193 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,719 Speaker 5: includes one hundred and fifteen pound women flyweights, all that 194 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 5: his knockdown rate is lower than that total average, which is, 195 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 5: you know, by heavyweight standards, real low, which just makes 196 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 5: this a huge step down in competition for tui Vasa. 197 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 5: We're concerned, you know, Brian's cancerned about Tibera's chin. We're 198 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 5: both concerned about to Vasa's chin. Tibert has never really 199 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 5: given us a reason to suspect that he's got big 200 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 5: powers going to test that chan or two e Vasa. 201 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 5: On the other side, to Avasa has tested everyone's chin. So, 202 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 5: you know, just to clarify, when I say that, like, 203 00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 5: I feel bad being one of those guys, it's like 204 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 5: talking bad about people who could obviously beat me up. 205 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 4: I do mean relative to other us. 206 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: I did that at the start of the show, you know, 207 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,679 Speaker 1: kind of right. I think Sorilla could beat me up. 208 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 3: Possibly. 209 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: I didn't realize how Tlly was when I met in 210 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: last July. But yeah, I should feel bad too in 211 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 1: that regard. Either of you have a follow up thought 212 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:37,679 Speaker 1: on the birthday thing. I should let you guys weigh 213 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 1: in on that, but you don't. You don't have to 214 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 1: have a take. I just just it's just something. It 215 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 1: has nothing to do with Sean, has to do with 216 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: just the thing. It's the birthday thing. 217 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 6: I mean that took I took my birthday off earlier 218 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 6: this year. 219 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 3: Okay, I didn't. I didn't. 220 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 4: I didn't. 221 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:52,320 Speaker 6: I didn't make that like the reason like I didn't 222 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 6: tell a bunch of people. I did tell my editor. 223 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 6: I was like, listen, I'm doing shit on Tuesday, just 224 00:09:56,760 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 6: my birthday. So I'm just letting you know. She was 225 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 6: cool with it. 226 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 4: See I was. 227 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 3: He did tell someone who was in charge of you 228 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 3: about it. 229 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 6: I had let him know. I had a little because 230 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 6: we have meetings on Tuesdays for the NBA side Network. 231 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 6: So I was like, listen, I just you know, I'm 232 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 6: a I'm a I'm literally gonna make myself a nice 233 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:16,319 Speaker 6: breakfast and play video games all day. 234 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,080 Speaker 4: That's that's what I did. 235 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 5: I'm fairly certain I recorded this very podcast on my birthday, 236 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 5: but I'd have to go back and check the dates 237 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 5: to see see if that's true. I know I have 238 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 5: at least one year. It might not have been last year. 239 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 4: All right, all. 240 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 3: Right, we can move on. 241 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: But again, just to clarify for the audience, we have 242 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: a show doc and I didn't even have the doc 243 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: open yet. And it's in the first paragraph of our 244 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: I script my tea up and it's today's Shan Zrella's birthday, 245 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:49,319 Speaker 1: and happy birthday. 246 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 3: I'm not saying you shouldn't enjoy the day. It's just. 247 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 6: Baseball seasons coming, yes, and it's it's about to kick 248 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 6: your ass, so enjoy the day off. 249 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: Zarrella last year at the end of the baseball season. 250 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: And I'm not This is not to say like I'm 251 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 1: just using Sean as an example. Sean took a vacation 252 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 1: because he worked his butt off. He did UFC pods 253 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: every Friday. He had this, Uh take the time. 254 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 3: I get it. It's just it's just it's just a 255 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 3: birthday thing. I just don't like, oh, like it's it's 256 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 3: and it's not even him. 257 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: It's just it's just it's making me think of people 258 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:23,719 Speaker 1: that bring up the birthday. It's like, oh, it's my 259 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 1: and they go out of their way to tell people, 260 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: and that's like that's a very minor reason. But they're 261 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: like in the workplace, in the office, we're remote when 262 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 1: we do a lot of these shows, so it's not. 263 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 3: The same effect. But it just makes me think of 264 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 3: people like that. It just bugs me. Sorry, I had 265 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 3: to scratch that itch. 266 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: And maybe it's because it's Friday, and maybe it's because 267 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: I'm ready to just. 268 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 3: To wind down because the weekend's here. But happy birthday, Sean, 269 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 3: have a great day, he seems. 270 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: Let's go to the Fight of the night. We have 271 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:54,839 Speaker 1: Brian Battle opposing Ange Losa this week. Where are we 272 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: on this one? Billy as far as uh any and 273 00:11:57,679 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: Billy's got his luck ratings up. His luck ratings not 274 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 1: rankings different from the NFL breakdowns from Nick Giffen and 275 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: Chan Kurter they do during the football season. But right 276 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: now you can get Losa plus one forty four on 277 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: the money line and Battle is the favorite. 278 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, this one's kind of almost Fight of 279 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 5: the Night by default. There's not a lot of big names, 280 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 5: not a lot of what I would deem important fights 281 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 5: for divisional standings or anything like that. But this is 282 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 5: the co main event. You know, Ryan Battle won the 283 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 5: Ultimate Fighter season twenty nine. Wow, can't believe you know, 284 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 5: been doing that forever. Now that doesn't mean as much 285 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 5: as it used to. You know, we used to see 286 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 5: a big push for these guys coming off Ultimate Fighters, but. 287 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 4: It's still a thing. 288 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 5: Five and one in the UFC has stoppages, and four 289 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,719 Speaker 5: of those taking on one Losa. Losa is kind of 290 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 5: a cool story. The UFC seems interested in him, but 291 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 5: this is a massive step up in competition for Losa. 292 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 4: I wrote it down. 293 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 5: His opponents are combined three and eight in the UFC 294 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 5: coming in Those are Losa's opponents, and the guys he 295 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,960 Speaker 5: beat are combined one in six before this fight. So 296 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 5: you know, he's looked good so far, but he's been 297 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 5: fighting guys that, you know, basically triple A level in 298 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 5: terms of MMA fighters, and this is the first, like 299 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 5: real test he's had against like a really established tough 300 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 5: UFC fighter. Don't have a great read relative to the 301 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 5: money line. I think that's about right. You know, definitely 302 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,079 Speaker 5: make Battle a favorite. I was pretty surprised though you 303 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,199 Speaker 5: can get Brian Battle inside the distance at plus two 304 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 5: to fifty. I thought that would be a lot closer 305 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 5: to the money line than it is. You know, Battles 306 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 5: a guy has finished all but one of his UFC wins. 307 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,839 Speaker 5: If you look across his career entiretyes ten and two, 308 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:29,080 Speaker 5: only two of those wins are decisions great grappler. You 309 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 5: know he submitted some guys big power in his hands. 310 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 5: I believe he's also a BJJ black belt. Could be 311 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:36,959 Speaker 5: wrong there, even if he isn't. He's submitted Andre Petrowski 312 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 5: on the show. Petrowsky is a high level grappler known 313 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 5: for that, and Battle submitted him. So just he's got 314 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 5: a bunch of outs here. This is not something where 315 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 5: he just needs to land a big shot or he 316 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 5: needs it to be a grappling match. 317 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 4: Kind of has ways to stop this no matter where 318 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 4: it goes. 319 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 5: I just believe that those lines should be a lot 320 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 5: closer to each other than they are. So plus two 321 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 5: to fifty on the inside the distance if you shop 322 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 5: around anywhere on this side, a plus two hundred or 323 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 5: so feels too low based on where we have his 324 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 5: money line and how he usually wins. 325 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: Brian, you have interest in the favorite at that price 326 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: on the money line. 327 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:12,839 Speaker 6: Uh yeah, But like I like inside the biness better. 328 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 4: Money line. 329 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 6: The best you can find it right now is minus 330 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 6: one seven or whatever. And I do definitively think Brian 331 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 6: Battles did win this fight against Angelosa because Losa is 332 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 6: probably I mean shorter arms, shorter legs, like shorter reach. 333 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 6: He's going to try and push the pace early, which 334 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 6: Gabe Green infamously made that same mistake. Like, I just 335 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 6: like for a second, because Brian Battle had one of 336 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 6: the knockouts of the year last year actually at MMA, 337 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 6: and it was because his opponent Gave Green sort of 338 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 6: just backed them up into the cage and just like 339 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 6: had no regard for defense at all. It was one 340 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 6: of the stupidest things I've seen in octagon where it's 341 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 6: like immediately and I don't mean to come at dudes 342 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 6: like this, so, like you know, in fighting, if you're 343 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 6: going to back somebody up into the cage or at 344 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 6: the corner like from the start of the fight and 345 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 6: not defend yourself at all, like not keep a hand 346 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 6: up by your chin, like yes, you're gonna get caught. 347 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 6: And if you're a South Paul, guess what's the punch 348 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 6: that's gonna find you. It's gonna be a straight right 349 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 6: hand or a right hook. Brian Battle caught him with 350 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 6: a right hook and decapitated. 351 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 4: It was nasty. 352 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 6: I think Angelosa like he's gonna come out. I don't 353 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 6: know if I'm gonna say similarly aggressive, but I do 354 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 6: think he's going to try and win that first round, 355 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 6: and he could potentially burn himself out there. Brian Battle 356 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 6: is somebody who's a skilled counter striker with his legs 357 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 6: and his hands. He's going to try to leg kick him. 358 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 6: He's gonna, you know, kick him in the mid mid 359 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 6: section area as well, can switch stances with a level 360 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 6: of fluidity that's actually, I think really nice. He could 361 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 6: land straight left hand, straight right hands. I think he's 362 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 6: going to box him a little bit well as well. 363 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 6: And Brian Battle is somebody who I think as the 364 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 6: fight goes on, he's going to get better. Maybe it's 365 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 6: late finish, but I do think he probably finishes him 366 00:15:58,040 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 6: in some way. I'm not sure if it's knock. I'm 367 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 6: not sure if it's just a submission, but I do 368 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 6: feel confident that he's going to win this fight and 369 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 6: I have him. I'll take him on the money line, 370 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 6: but I'm also I could rock with Billy here and 371 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 6: take him inside the distance because Angelos's level of competition, 372 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 6: as you mentioned, Billy like it gives you reason to 373 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 6: think he might not survive in this fight that long. 374 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 6: Because Brian Battle's such a step up and competition for 375 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 6: him compared to what we've seen elsewhere. So I also 376 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 6: would entertain live betting after round one because Angelos could 377 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 6: start off well and then people could be like, hey, 378 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 6: talk themselves into this, but then Brian battle like he 379 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 6: has really good cardio, and I think he starts he 380 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 6: start to take over the fight in round two after 381 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 6: sort of downloading information as we call it in round one, 382 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 6: and then really take a stranglehold on this fight. So 383 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 6: I would entertain live betting him after round one in 384 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 6: the event that he looks just okay, I think he'll 385 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 6: pick it up after that. 386 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: Thirteen fights total on the card, set prelim fights, six 387 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 1: on the main card, all available on ESPN plus Consensus Underdog, 388 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 1: It appears a good week for dogs, Billy. 389 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 3: And which one did you land on? 390 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, so this is kind of a it's not about 391 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 5: her specifically, but I actually like all three female or 392 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 5: women's fighters underdogs here. They're all fights that we think 393 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 5: are more likely than not to go to a decision. 394 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:25,879 Speaker 5: They're all gonna be fights I think that are tricky 395 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 5: for the judges, and I always say, if we're flipping 396 00:17:28,040 --> 00:17:29,880 Speaker 5: a coin, you want the side that pays out more 397 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 5: than the other side. My favorite of those is Jacqueline 398 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,400 Speaker 5: and morem She's a round plus one forty five. It's 399 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 5: actually gotten a little bit you know, better odds on 400 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 5: her throughout the week. I thought it would go the 401 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 5: other way. One of the big reasons, and I'm sure 402 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 5: Brian's gonna mention this, but I'm a Steelers thunder a 403 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 5: little bit. She has a one foot reach advantage like 404 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,679 Speaker 5: you almost never see that. Corey McKenna should really be 405 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:51,199 Speaker 5: fighting down a weight class, but the UFC doesn't have 406 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 5: anything lower than one fifteen, so she's kind of stuck here. 407 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 5: But she would really be better suited to one oh five. 408 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 5: And that's fine. You know, it's not boxing. You can 409 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 5: overcome that normally. The way you overcome that is by 410 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,160 Speaker 5: getting in the clinch and taking fights to the ground. Well, 411 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 5: Amran is a high level BJJ black belt competed in 412 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 5: all kinds of high level jiu jitsu competitions. But Kinna 413 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 5: can grapple a little bit, but you know, she's a 414 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 5: brown belt. It's a world of difference even you know, 415 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 5: lower level black belts versus people competing in you know, 416 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 5: IBJJF worlds and stuff like that is a big difference 417 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 5: much less when you're not even a black belt yet. 418 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 5: So don't really see how McKenna gets this done here 419 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 5: because she has a whole foot of reach to overcome, 420 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 5: which you never see that Like, that's huge. And then 421 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 5: if she gets in close then it's a grappling match, 422 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 5: which also doesn't favor her. So Brian's gonna give you 423 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,959 Speaker 5: another play on this one. But like all the women's underdogs, 424 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 5: a Moran is definitely my favorite. 425 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: And Brian, why do you agree with Billy on a 426 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: morem for an underdog play? 427 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:52,200 Speaker 6: Yeah, because I think I'm a little surprised to the line 428 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 6: is where it is. I think people would say, like, hey, 429 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,719 Speaker 6: Corey McKenna is not as one dimensional, right like with 430 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:02,719 Speaker 6: Jacqueline Warm. You know it's going to be she's going 431 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 6: to try to get you on the ground use her 432 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 6: jiu jitsu. Basically Corey McKenna likes to do that as well. 433 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 6: I would say that Jacqueline Morram is better at it 434 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 6: and it'll play right into her hands. This is where 435 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,439 Speaker 6: she wants to fight to be. She wanted to be 436 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,640 Speaker 6: on the ground in the clinch. She's one with a variety, 437 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 6: like she's a creative submission artist, like she's one with 438 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 6: real naked chokes, arm bars, knee bars, arm triangle, and 439 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 6: I think in taking this fight to the ground, like 440 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:35,200 Speaker 6: that's just going to benefit her. Interestingly enough, if you're 441 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 6: looking at her past victories, a lot of them by submission, 442 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 6: you can find it right now, plus five hundred to 443 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 6: win by submission, which I think is actually probably worth 444 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 6: a sprinkle. Actually might put that. 445 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 4: On our no. 446 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 6: Plus five hundred by decision and plus three thirty by submission. 447 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 6: Actually might put one of those in our prop squad 448 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 6: file this week now that I'm looking at that, because 449 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 6: I feel like it was a long enough ot. This 450 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,120 Speaker 6: fight may go to the cards, but I think Jacqueline 451 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 6: morm is going to have moments, mission attempts when this 452 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 6: fight does go to the ground. I would lean on 453 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 6: her just sort of edging this out also because like 454 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 6: I don't I don't think plus one forty five is 455 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 6: is right. I feel like this should be almost even, 456 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 6: and I know why people think the McKenna's going to 457 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 6: should be the favorite for this fight, But I just 458 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 6: think this fight is going to go to the ground, 459 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 6: Like it feels inevitable that's going to happen. When it 460 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 6: does happen, I think a Morm's going to get the 461 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:25,919 Speaker 6: better hand because of what we were talking about with 462 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 6: her submission abilities, and also. 463 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 3: Just her jiu jitsu is high level. 464 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 6: So I think I think the fight's going to play 465 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 6: into her hands and she's going to take advantage of it. 466 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 5: And Moran has all the stoppage upside here, right, she's 467 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,440 Speaker 5: never wont to fight by decision in her career. McKenna 468 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 5: has in her career half of her wins are by decision, 469 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 5: but in the UFC all but one of them, three 470 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 5: out of four, four out of five, kind of in 471 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 5: connected series. You know, she doesn't really have a way 472 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 5: to end this fight, where Morgan has probably multiple ways. 473 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,199 Speaker 5: You know, she's got ground and pound victories. Probably the 474 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,040 Speaker 5: more powerful striker, I would say, less technically adapt on 475 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 5: the feet, but in terms of you know, shot for shot, 476 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,879 Speaker 5: who's got one power that one who's got bigger power 477 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 5: than's definitely and Warren as well. 478 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:07,640 Speaker 4: So yeah, just a classic look. 479 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 5: These are the kind of underdogs we like to take, right, 480 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 5: they have the stoppage up side, they have the grappling upside. 481 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 5: The line suggests it's probably gonna go to the judges. 482 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 5: We never trust judges to get it right in MMA, 483 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,920 Speaker 5: So all those things point in the same direction here. 484 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 6: Yeah, And if you and if you're telling me this 485 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,160 Speaker 6: fight is going to wind up on the ground, I'm 486 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 6: going to take. 487 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 4: The person who's just start to trust more. 488 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: This podcast is proudly presented by BETTMGM. Used bonus code 489 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: action when signing up to get up to one hundred 490 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,120 Speaker 1: and fifty eight dollars in bonus bets when you bet 491 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: five dollars for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 492 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 493 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older. 494 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. Okay, how about 495 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,800 Speaker 1: props and Billy. This relates to one of the fights 496 00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: on the main card. And you wrote up on Christian 497 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 1: Rodriguez in your luck ratings right up, an undervalued fighter. 498 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,560 Speaker 1: But of course we're talking props, so you're not taking 499 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 1: a side here necessarily, but you do think there's value 500 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,120 Speaker 1: on the Rodriguez money line side. But what's another approach 501 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:13,920 Speaker 1: to Christian Rodriguez this weekend. 502 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, I ended up doing the full breakdown on this 503 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 5: one just as a bonus piece on it and go 504 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 5: over actionnetwork dot com and check that out or in 505 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 5: the award winning Action Network happ But yeah, I really 506 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 5: like Christian Rodriguez. As I was researching this fight, I 507 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 5: think I kind of talked myself into a better way 508 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,239 Speaker 5: to play at a better price. And that's you know, 509 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 5: any kind of late angle you have, this depends on 510 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,280 Speaker 5: the book. As of this morning, BETMGM and not posted 511 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 5: round props for this fight, so keep an eye on 512 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,440 Speaker 5: that could be better priced if you have books where 513 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 5: you can do a same game parlay, you know, fight 514 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 5: to start round two or over four and a half minutes, 515 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 5: anything like that with Rodriguez is a little bit better 516 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 5: than plus two hundred books where you can do the 517 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 5: split rounds, you know, round three or by decision, even 518 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 5: a little bit better price than that. But all this 519 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:59,639 Speaker 5: guy does is take on undefeated prospects, survive the first round, 520 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 5: and then takeover. He's coming off wins over both Cameron 521 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 5: Samon Andro Roses. Both of those fights he missed way 522 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 5: at one thirty five, which is why this is at 523 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 5: one forty five. Roses dominated him in the first round, 524 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,920 Speaker 5: took him down a bunch of times. Rodriguez was able 525 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 5: to get up every time. Rounds two to three, Rodriguez 526 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,120 Speaker 5: takes over. Next fight, Cameron Samon, known for his striking. 527 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 5: Saman wins the first round on a couple judges scorecards. 528 00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,919 Speaker 5: One of them still gave it to Rodriguez. Rounds two 529 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 5: and three unanimous to Rodriguez. Same story. Now he's fighting 530 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 5: Isaac Dulgarian six and zero, former D two wrestler, former 531 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 5: state champion in high school, all stoppage wins, all first 532 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 5: round wins, never been out of the first round. It's 533 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 5: the same story, right, undefeated prospect likes to finish people 534 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 5: in the first round. Have no idea how he does 535 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 5: beyond that. Even looking at his amateur record, Dulgarians never 536 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 5: made it out of the first round. I'm just I 537 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 5: was really heartened by the grappling performance of Sea Rod 538 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 5: against guys like Simon and Roses. He defended thirteen of 539 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,960 Speaker 5: sixteen takedowns from Robuel. Roses got up from two of 540 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 5: the three that did land one of them. 541 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 4: The round ended, and. 542 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 5: Then he I believe when UH defended all five or 543 00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 5: all six from Cameron Samon and then also beat Cameron 544 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 5: Samon at his game on his feet. I don't love 545 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:11,399 Speaker 5: that he's going up to one forty five for this, 546 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 5: but he's just twenty six years old, still filling out, 547 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 5: still getting some of that man strength. 548 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,199 Speaker 4: If anything, I think he's going to be better at 549 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 4: one forty five. 550 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,439 Speaker 5: You know, the weight class is why this line is 551 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 5: what it is, because he does have a loss. His 552 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,639 Speaker 5: only career losses at one forty five. Also took that 553 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 5: one on like two weeks notice, so we can write 554 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 5: that one off and look pretty good all things considered. 555 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 5: So yeah, you know, everything is favoring him. The guy 556 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,639 Speaker 5: who's coming in at one thirty nine when he was 557 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 5: supposed to fight one thirty five. Don't think he's going 558 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 5: to be too small for the division. He's had some 559 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 5: time to put some size and strength on, and you 560 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 5: know in your mid twenties is when that strength and 561 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,399 Speaker 5: muscle really tends to come on. So everything is pointing 562 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 5: me towards Roder. You guys like the money line, but 563 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,440 Speaker 5: I'd much rather get the better price. And then, obviously 564 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 5: with all these angles I've laid out perfect live opportunity 565 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 5: to after round one, Dulgarian's gonna come out hard, look 566 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 5: for some takedowns, might find one or two, don't he 567 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 5: keeps it up into two or three. So the best 568 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 5: way to play it is live. Don't want to assume 569 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 5: that anyone's watching this pretty low level fight night on 570 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 5: there Saturday evening though, So you know, if you want 571 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:11,880 Speaker 5: a pre fight, angle any kind of light prop. 572 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 1: Brian favorite prop for UFC Fight Night, Vegas eighty eight. 573 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,360 Speaker 6: Going back to ty to Vasa. If you're taking him 574 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 6: to win this fight, one of the things you have 575 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,439 Speaker 6: to sprinkle on is him to knock out Martine Tyberier 576 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 6: amount of round one, Like it's one of those things 577 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 6: where he has the knockout resume, which is largely in 578 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 6: the first round. He is thirteen of US fourteen wins 579 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 6: by knockout, eleven of those are in the first round, 580 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 6: and right now is plus two seventy five for him 581 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 6: to get the stoppage in the first round, which is 582 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:44,879 Speaker 6: a tasty number to me that you just have to 583 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 6: sort of put a small amount like I wouldn't go 584 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,679 Speaker 6: crazy and put like you know, I'm not a one 585 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 6: hundred dollars better myself. So I wouldn't even put that 586 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,400 Speaker 6: like on the money line straight up, but I would 587 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,399 Speaker 6: put something small on that because the resume is there. 588 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 6: It's what he's going to be looking to ultimately do, 589 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,879 Speaker 6: because that sense of urgency, you know, when you're at 590 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 6: this crossroads portion of his career. He's thirty years old, 591 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 6: he has three straight losses, You're looking to build back 592 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,680 Speaker 6: up a winning streak. You're the A side and the 593 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 6: main event. Still even after all that, like, yeah, you're 594 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 6: trying to come out guns blazing and immediately test Tiberia's 595 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 6: chin who's been knocked out again five times in his 596 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 6: MMA career. So I think you have all the recipe 597 00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,679 Speaker 6: for this plus two to seventy five bets to cash. 598 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,400 Speaker 6: Not calling it a guarantee. Nothing em betting is a guarantee, 599 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,199 Speaker 6: but I do think that this is something that I 600 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 6: would look at. It's one of my favorite props on 601 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:37,919 Speaker 6: the board and also for him to just if you 602 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 6: want to stretch it between. 603 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:40,880 Speaker 3: Rounds one and two, which is where all his. 604 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,679 Speaker 6: Knockouts have come through, because he has multiple knockouts in 605 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 6: round two, you could get that plus one seventy ish 606 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 6: I believe right now at one prominent book, and I 607 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 6: think plus one sixty at another. Obviously you'd rather have 608 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 6: the plus one seventy knockout or TKO between rounds one 609 00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 6: and two. I think both of those numbers are very, 610 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 6: very tantalizing and likely I would say, all. 611 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,640 Speaker 1: Right, we'll wrap this up with a best bet from 612 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,120 Speaker 1: Billy and Brian and then we'll get on out of here. 613 00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: Billy going back to the prelim card for a side. 614 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, the. 615 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,440 Speaker 5: Line movement on this one has turned it from a 616 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 5: final bet to a best bet, just because we're getting 617 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,119 Speaker 5: a little bit of better price than I expected to. 618 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 5: And that's Jafelle Filo in a flyweight fight against Ody Osbourne. 619 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 5: I just think this fight is kind of tailor made 620 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 5: for Filo. He made his UFCA debut on less than 621 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:32,679 Speaker 5: a week notice against Mohammed and Mokay. Have you know 622 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:36,879 Speaker 5: undefeated elite grappler had Mokay have fully extended in a 623 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,719 Speaker 5: knee bar that Makai have kind of gutted through. Philo 624 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,159 Speaker 5: had sold out trying to finish that submission, didn't get it, 625 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,360 Speaker 5: ended up submitting himself, but like huge stock up performance 626 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,160 Speaker 5: for him, even in a loss against the guy who's 627 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 5: now top ten or probably top five, I haven't checked 628 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,439 Speaker 5: the flyweight rankings, and then comes back and does exactly 629 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 5: what we expected him to do, which is submit his 630 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 5: next opponent. He's fighting Odie Osbourne, kind of a longer, 631 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 5: skinnier striker in a small cage where Odi is not 632 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,199 Speaker 5: going to be able to find the distance to use 633 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 5: this four or five inch each advantage, and Filo is 634 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 5: going to be able to close the distance and grapple 635 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 5: with him. Odi has four losses in the UFC, two 636 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 5: overm Are by submission, including the last one. You know, 637 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:16,879 Speaker 5: longer skinnier guy. As someone who's done a lot of 638 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,400 Speaker 5: grappling myself, I love trying to take down those tall, 639 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,919 Speaker 5: skinny guys, you know, higher center of gravity. It just 640 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 5: gives you more opportunities to get inside and do those things. 641 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,080 Speaker 5: They got longer limbs, which gives you more option to 642 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 5: submit him long skinny next for you to choke. It's 643 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 5: just this feels like a fight that the UFC knows 644 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,199 Speaker 5: what they have in Odie Osbourne, and that's a guy 645 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 5: who's going to be about five hundred. Hang around, have 646 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 5: a fun fight every once in a while, and Filo 647 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 5: could be a contender and a division that really needs 648 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 5: some young contenders because the current champ has already beat 649 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 5: the top two or three guys, so there's not a 650 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 5: lot going on at the top. I think this is 651 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 5: set up as a showcase fight for Filo. The matchmaking 652 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,720 Speaker 5: knows what they're doing. They gave him, you know, a 653 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 5: matchup against the guy who people know and has had 654 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 5: some success, but as a massive weakness in the area 655 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 5: that he's good, and then they put it in a 656 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 5: small cage. It makes it even easier to do that. 657 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,840 Speaker 5: So all of those things. Time you fell Filo thinking 658 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 5: good as good as minus one fifty five. Now I 659 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,000 Speaker 5: took him in a little bit longer odds earlier in 660 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 5: the week, kind of regretting it. But I play this one, 661 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 5: you know, minus one eighty minus one ninety is about 662 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 5: where I'd stop playing. So maybe we get even better price. 663 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 5: I don't think there's any rush on this one. You 664 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 5: could wait, wait till closer to fight time. 665 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 3: And Brian, let's you wrap us up. 666 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, that price has come down about you know, 667 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 1: twenty five cents on a Philo. 668 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 6: Yeah, everyone in the world is expecting ovin Sanfru to 669 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:40,760 Speaker 6: be destroyed by Kennedy. Kennedy and as a check, I 670 00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 6: do think like there's some tricky bets in this fight. 671 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:45,479 Speaker 6: I don't feel like you're getting enough value. And as 672 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,640 Speaker 6: a check with and obviously because we all have them, 673 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 6: so win this fight. But he's like, you're finding him 674 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 6: a minus two twenty five to win within the first 675 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 6: couple of rounds. The over unders like one and a half, 676 00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,360 Speaker 6: which that's that's a stay away from me because I 677 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 6: could see this lingering on a little bit, Like I 678 00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 6: understand same per seventeen losses, none of them have gone distance. 679 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:11,320 Speaker 6: But ultimately, like this is the biggest favorite on the card. 680 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,800 Speaker 6: As the check who is like minus seven hundred, I 681 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 6: think if he's available as shorter than two hundred minus 682 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:23,240 Speaker 6: two hundred odds to win by knockout or TKO, like, yeah, 683 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 6: I would take him to win that fight. One book 684 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,600 Speaker 6: has at minus one ninety. I saw minus one eighty 685 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 6: earlier this week, and that should be ultimately the outcome, 686 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 6: Like that's what we should see. I would probably stop 687 00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 6: at around two hundred, and I would probably even wait 688 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:39,120 Speaker 6: because the line is not great and maybe there will 689 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,120 Speaker 6: be some underdog money that comes in that tilts it 690 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,640 Speaker 6: a little bit more in your favor at the last minute, 691 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,240 Speaker 6: because you know, people love themselves some underdogs, especially on 692 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 6: MMA cards. But yeah, as a check, we should get 693 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 6: this done, and he should really get this done in 694 00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 6: emphatic fashion, like this is the showcase fights of all 695 00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 6: showcase fight and he, you know, could use a victory 696 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:01,240 Speaker 6: right now allowed one as well. I also would look 697 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 6: at just for him to probably went within the first 698 00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,480 Speaker 6: couple of rounds in the fight, but again, anything larger 699 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:10,400 Speaker 6: than like minus two hundred and even then, I'm a 700 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,720 Speaker 6: little skeptical of it because like, it's not it's not 701 00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 6: something I have like one hundred percent confidence in that. 702 00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 6: It's that it's going to happen. But it should happen. 703 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 6: It's what should be the outcome. And I do think 704 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,600 Speaker 6: that if he doesn't, then we should be talking about, like, yo, 705 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 6: what are you really doing here in the UFC, Like 706 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 6: this is one of those type of fights like I 707 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 6: said this about Anthony Joshua and Francis a Gondo last week, 708 00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,720 Speaker 6: Like in one of the videos for here, I'm like, 709 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,000 Speaker 6: Anthony Joshua, you got to retire if you lose to 710 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 6: Francis and Gando, and he treated him like a novice, 711 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,040 Speaker 6: got him out of there in two rounds, as he 712 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 6: should have as Tyson Fury probably you know, could have 713 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 6: if he didn't, if he actually trained for the fight. 714 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,720 Speaker 6: But yeah, it's a similar situation to me here, like 715 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 6: you have to get done, which you have to get 716 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,680 Speaker 6: done and then move along because this is not a 717 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,240 Speaker 6: I'm not even sure how this fight got made. Also, 718 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 6: like that's one of the other interesting things to me here, 719 00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:58,720 Speaker 6: like I'm not even like, I don't even know what 720 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,800 Speaker 6: we're doing here with this, but you know, Kennedy does 721 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 6: a check, will please, like just get the stoppage to 722 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,680 Speaker 6: move it along, and they should not linger on for 723 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 6: more than a couple of rounds. 724 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 4: To speak to that real quick. 725 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 5: I believe this one came together within the last week 726 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:14,239 Speaker 5: or two, Like there were some shake ups to the car. 727 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,800 Speaker 5: They were trying to make stuff happen. So to your point, 728 00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,960 Speaker 5: I don't think this was a fight that anyone was 729 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 5: really dying to see so much as they needed to 730 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 5: fill out the card. And that probably helps the under 731 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,800 Speaker 5: you know, it probably helps stoppage, you know, quick stuff 732 00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 5: like that, because I don't think either of these guys 733 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 5: can really trust their Cardio at this point. There are 734 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 5: some big, strong dudes. Cardio doesn't tend to hold up 735 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,680 Speaker 5: well even under the best of circumstances. Now you make 736 00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 5: them fight on a week or two notice, probably only 737 00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 5: helps your case here as just the smaller cage because 738 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,880 Speaker 5: you got nowhere to hide from the massive Kennedy as 739 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 5: a chuck Wu with his eighty three entre each, which 740 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 5: is just insane how little this cage is. It's going 741 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 5: to look like, you know, a toddler's playpen in there 742 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 5: with these two big boys. 743 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, and speaking of birthdays, osp turns forty one next month, 744 00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:57,200 Speaker 6: so like. 745 00:32:57,240 --> 00:32:59,360 Speaker 3: Come well, he's got his whole plan mapped out now, 746 00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 3: you know. 747 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,600 Speaker 6: Like this may be a fight where he puts his 748 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,240 Speaker 6: gloves down at the end of the cage if it 749 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:06,400 Speaker 6: ends that, Like I. 750 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 5: Just but it is his birthday month. You're right, Brandon, 751 00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,640 Speaker 5: It's a whole month of extravagance for Ovin. Saint Crew 752 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 5: gonna have a big party in the octagon. 753 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 4: It'll be great. I can't wait to see it. 754 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 6: Not a lot of guys putting together forty four career 755 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 6: MMA fights. This will be his forty four. 756 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 3: Wow, all right, fellas we did it. 757 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:29,600 Speaker 1: UFC Vegas eighty eight goes down on Saturday, Thirteen fights, 758 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 1: seven prelimbs, six on the main card, all on ESPN Plus. 759 00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, Please rate, review and subscribe on 760 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:42,400 Speaker 1: the audio side. Also, if you found us on Action 761 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 1: Network YouTube, great, please subscribe to the channel like the video. 762 00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 3: If you are so inclined. 763 00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 1: And yeah, as I mentioned off the top of the show, 764 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,080 Speaker 1: ton's going on. We have Payoff Pitch returning on a 765 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,720 Speaker 1: regular basis very soon. We also have Big Bets on 766 00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 1: campus for the March Madness stuff coming up as well 767 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,640 Speaker 1: as Selection Sunday. They'll have a special breakdown episode when 768 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 1: the bracket is released, and are UFC betting previews every Friday. 769 00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:11,319 Speaker 1: And welcome North Carolina just got legalized and active this 770 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,719 Speaker 1: past Monday, so very. 771 00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 3: Good for Brian and Billy. You can find them in 772 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:16,960 Speaker 3: the Action App. 773 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 1: I'm also certain everything I said at the top of 774 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,840 Speaker 1: the show, Zilla will be in the app and giving 775 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,760 Speaker 1: picks and he'll be on top of his stuff for 776 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:29,440 Speaker 1: this fight this fight card, so find Shan Zarrillo in 777 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,319 Speaker 1: the Action App as well. Follow those guys if you 778 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,960 Speaker 1: haven't already downloaded the free award winning Action Network app 779 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:40,319 Speaker 1: and Happy Birthday Shanzillo. I genuinely, I genuinely mean that. 780 00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,279 Speaker 1: I know it sounds like I don't genuinely mean it. 781 00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 3: I genuinely mean that. Yeah, I want to be very clear. 782 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,239 Speaker 3: This was not about Sean. It's just the birthday thing. 783 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,840 Speaker 3: It just got me. It just got me on a 784 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:51,520 Speaker 3: Friday morning. 785 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:56,160 Speaker 1: So, Brian Vonseca, Billy Ward, Brendan Glasheen, thanks for listening 786 00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,360 Speaker 1: to the Action Network podcast our UFC betting previews in 787 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,719 Speaker 1: the books we are presented by BETMGM, the King of 788 00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,640 Speaker 1: sports books. You all have a fantastic weekend and we'll 789 00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 1: talk to you next week. Action Network reminds you please 790 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,920 Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has 791 00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:18,040 Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven 792 00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 1: at one eight hundred gambler