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Speaker 1: Let's get to Ken Jong, who is chief Asian FX

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Speaker 1: strategist at Mizzouho Bank. Ken, we've seen a lot of

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Speaker 1: dollar weakness here of late. We've seen dolly yen go

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Speaker 1: from one forty eight to one thirty six, the Euro

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Speaker 1: from ninety seven US cents to a dollar four, the

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Speaker 1: Aussie from sixty three to sixty eight cents, and the

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Speaker 1: c NH from seven thirty five to seven oh three.

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Speaker 1: So you've got four there, Yen, Euro, Aussie and CNH.

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Speaker 1: Which one would be best for me? If I believe

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Speaker 1: in this reopening of China and rates moderating in the US. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: if d C said the turn the runt of China,

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Speaker 1: COVID polisy, of course I think Reman ber w will

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Speaker 1: be the best performer because the I think the ming

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Speaker 1: two driver for the market right now, he is about

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Speaker 1: at the fast tightening and now that is that's trying

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Speaker 1: to be opening. Because those kai of policy change we

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Speaker 1: will be UH will be the key driver for the

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Speaker 1: global growth outlook the next year. So but they in

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Speaker 1: my dad's women by has been very worritile because there

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Speaker 1: would be still quite a lot of uncertainties over the

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Speaker 1: policy and we may see the road to China reopening

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Speaker 1: could be quite bompy. So I think it's a good

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Speaker 1: time to rush in to chase the rally in the

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Speaker 1: women by because there could be any better movement on

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Speaker 1: the women by when there is some policy surprise or

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Speaker 1: the unexpected development in the social unrest. Yeah, we did

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Speaker 1: see a few games to your point for the US

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Speaker 1: dollar of the past few days. So in an ongoing

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Speaker 1: environment of global uncertainty, could we see a few more

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Speaker 1: rallies here and there on the green back. I think

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Speaker 1: in the beginning with the recession, we really hit the

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Speaker 1: market UH the and the inmediate response that will be

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Speaker 1: UH sailing the US solar because a weakening US or

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Speaker 1: the or the data could drive the fair to slow down.

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Speaker 1: Is a rateap path. But if you look at next year,

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Speaker 1: I think there could be some investor looking for some

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Speaker 1: safe haven, Say there's UH fundsing for the US dollar

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Speaker 1: and they may try to be built at the US

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Speaker 1: dollar LNG position next year. And because they can enjoy

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Speaker 1: the safe haven status against the acbal recession risk and

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Speaker 1: on the other hand, the U s solar you advantage,

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Speaker 1: I think will be still a quite a chesting pond

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Speaker 1: for some investor and they can't. As we've been discussing

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Speaker 1: the end, one of the big beneficiaries of dollar weakness

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Speaker 1: today higher against all of the g turn currencies. Um.

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Speaker 1: But I'm just wondering longer term, what in your view

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Speaker 1: does the future hold for the end. We do have

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Speaker 1: Governor Corona stepping down in April. Do you anticipate any

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Speaker 1: shift in berj policy and what's the kind of mean

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Speaker 1: for the Japanese n Yeah, this is a very important

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Speaker 1: tam point that the market is looking at because the

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Speaker 1: Coroner sun is the the supporter of is an ultra

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Speaker 1: loosening policy. So if market is a wondering if there

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Speaker 1: is a leadership change in Bilj with they make a

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Speaker 1: big changes in the policy as well. Uh. But but

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Speaker 1: I think that the invasion, I think is so in

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Speaker 1: quite encouraging development in Japan, and uh, next spring I

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Speaker 1: think will be still quite good tim point for any

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Speaker 1: small suferin or moderate moderation in the BOJS policy, because

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Speaker 1: they we will have a summervation negotiation, uh in Japan

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Speaker 1: and also with the leadership changer in bo j in

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Speaker 1: an example, so uh so yeah, So any I think

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Speaker 1: just a small modification in the BLJ policy will already

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Speaker 1: big changes in the thorah yen. But I think market

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Speaker 1: right now has been pricing in such a fatter so

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Speaker 1: that's why the yen has been rebanquet a lot of Yeah, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned from one eight to one thirty six

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Speaker 1: and just a month so the dollar weaker. And Doug

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Speaker 1: Christner just mentioned a few moments ago the loosening of

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Speaker 1: financial conditions that we've seen from the comments by j Powell.

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Speaker 1: And the presumption is that Powell and the FED might

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Speaker 1: not like that. But what if the FED is a

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Speaker 1: little worried that it has overtightened as many have accused it. Uh,

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Speaker 1: this looseness in financial conditions could help offset that and

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Speaker 1: perhaps be a good thing. Yeah. Obviously we saw that

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Speaker 1: there was a some softening data side in us UH,

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Speaker 1: in us A housing market, as we always ad the

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Speaker 1: consumer sentiment, So I think that's trustify why the FED

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Speaker 1: is a planning to moderate is a y tipe pace

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Speaker 1: at this moment, but in the longer term, we believe

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Speaker 1: THETA they will still continuous a rat high cycle because

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Speaker 1: invasion remains too high and such kind of a very

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Speaker 1: stiffen invasion was quite sticky in US, So that's why

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Speaker 1: Powell continues to warn the market that said they will

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Speaker 1: be still a long way to go for the rat

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Speaker 1: high cycle. I want to get your view as well

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Speaker 1: on the future of the Hong Kong dollar. The PEG

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Speaker 1: has been questioned again. Bill Ackman's shorting that the architecture.

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Speaker 1: John Greenwood says this dollar PEG is still relevant, So

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Speaker 1: what's your view. We expected dollar Hong Kong dollar PET

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Speaker 1: that will remain in TAT because I think it's the

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Speaker 1: best UH foreign exchange system for Hong Kong suggests a

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Speaker 1: small economy. And on the week side, we believe that

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong still hold a huge ethics. We serve the

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Speaker 1: ethics we serve to m c O RAC, so it's

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Speaker 1: still standing around one point seven. Therefore, it means that

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong physical UH ethics we serve could fully beat

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Speaker 1: up the Hong Kong money supply so to maintain such

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Speaker 1: craft for currency. But it would be okay if Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong government still a limit the money supplies in Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong dollar. And that's the case in Hong Kong. So

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Speaker 1: that's why we believed at Hong kokola pad changed UH

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Speaker 1: well remain very intended in in the future. Okay, what's

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Speaker 1: your best pick then on any currency, say over the

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Speaker 1: next six months. Yeah, in the near term, we see

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Speaker 1: that Korean one, so it is shown WEBA momentum because

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Speaker 1: the UH was the benefactory currency from China reopening. We

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Speaker 1: know that UH the Korean whole quais big exploit ex

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Speaker 1: posure to China economy and also it is quite sensitive

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Speaker 1: the Google UH sentiment. So as long as we saw

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Speaker 1: US equities, we bun alongside the first modeling pace. So

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Speaker 1: we believe that's a Korean one, we'll be outperforming in

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Speaker 1: the Yeah, in the in coming months, alright, Ken Cheung,

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Speaker 1: we will have to leave it there. Thanks for joining

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Speaker 1: us on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. Ken Chung is a Chief

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Speaker 1: Asian IFFEC strategist at Mizzouho Bank