Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites podcast, part of the Action Network.
Speaker 1: Your Favorite Trio is back. I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz,
Speaker 1: joined by the wonderfully insightful and talented Stucky and Kendrick Middleton.
Speaker 1: On today's episode, We've got our plant the flag, game
Speaker 1: of the week for week three, some picks that have
Speaker 1: us in a pickle, and of course the main event
Speaker 1: evans Tuesday Primer guys, sort of a weird week for me.
Speaker 1: Tomorrow night, I'm headed to the Sleep Token concert. I
Speaker 1: don't know if you've ever heard of this band. I
Speaker 1: sent a picture of the lead singer in our group
Speaker 1: chat slightly frightening. It's members in the band remain anonymous
Speaker 1: because they all wear masks, so you can kind of
Speaker 1: get an idea, like think old school wrestling. Demolition is
Speaker 1: kind of what I'm going to here any words of them,
Speaker 1: because I feel like a complete fish out of water,
Speaker 1: like Irock Khaki's on a regular basis, I feel like
Speaker 1: I don't fit it.
Speaker 2: Square black that would be, I think the best thing
Speaker 2: you can do. I know that you have a pair
Speaker 2: of black pants, I know you have a black T shirt.
Speaker 3: Just wear black.
Speaker 2: I went to see Red Hot Chili Peppers or in
Speaker 2: Atlanta a couple of years ago and they had some
Speaker 2: like K pop scream o band come out and apparently
Speaker 2: they're huge, and I had no idea and half of
Speaker 2: the crowd was there to see them, and it was
Speaker 2: the It was like little girls screaming with like heavy
Speaker 2: metal in the back. Oh, there's some One of their
Speaker 2: songs is like something chocolate. I know somebody who's gonna
Speaker 2: watch this on YouTube is gonna know exactly what I'm
Speaker 2: talking about.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to send it to you guys later.
Speaker 2: But I'm sitting there just watching their opener and these
Speaker 2: little girls come out in these scary like death metal
Speaker 2: costumes and just start screaming. And it was the weirdest
Speaker 2: experience I've ever felt in my life. I was not
Speaker 2: dressed in enough black just when end out black it out?
Speaker 1: All right? No eyeliner, skip the eyeliner, just go or
Speaker 1: like should I go football EyeBlack under.
Speaker 3: The Derek Carr.
Speaker 4: Yes, I have no advice. I haven't been to a
Speaker 4: concert since college sports. From my life, I have not. Literally,
Speaker 4: I think the last concert I went to was so
Speaker 4: I went to school in DC. I honestly think it
Speaker 4: was like Kanye West came for some college fest thing
Speaker 4: and that was the last concert.
Speaker 1: Wow, you get to see him before he went absolutely bananas.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was like college dropout albums. So yeah, that
Speaker 4: was when.
Speaker 1: That's a vibrant See that's and that's my style. Like
Speaker 1: I'm more of a catch a Kanye in his prime.
Speaker 1: Maybe some Bruno mars. I'm going, I don't know how
Speaker 1: my wife got into this group, but you know, she's
Speaker 1: she's much more hardcore than I am. And I'm just
Speaker 1: going to be a supportive husband. But I got to
Speaker 1: get into it. Otherwise I'm gonna be that I'll be
Speaker 1: the you know, the Jewish husband that's like, all right,
Speaker 1: when's this thing gonna end? So I at least you
Speaker 1: want to I at least want to do my part.
Speaker 1: I just I don't know what I'm getting myself into.
Speaker 1: A Yeah, well, like you know, like hip hop pop,
Speaker 1: that's usually more my vibe.
Speaker 3: Isn't he in trouble for gambling?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 1: This is our kind of guy. We should get Bruno
Speaker 1: on the on the Favorites podcast.
Speaker 2: I think he owes Vegas like a million dollars or something,
Speaker 2: so he has to like perform his way out of it.
Speaker 1: Oait, Yeah, I that's why I'm hosting this podcast. Also,
Speaker 1: it's well behind the scenes for all of you.
Speaker 4: No, it's remember I did read that that.
Speaker 1: He I'm reading allegedly is the is the proper phrasing
Speaker 1: on Bruno and his gambling exploits.
Speaker 4: From anywhere from seven million to fifty million.
Speaker 3: That's a big number.
Speaker 1: You got really suck at this. That's like some Drake
Speaker 1: stats right.
Speaker 2: There, the guy who screwed the Jaguars over on FanDuel
Speaker 2: or whatever.
Speaker 4: I gotta look at it this more. We'll put you
Speaker 4: on the spot. What if i'd put you if I
Speaker 4: dropped you on a stage? What what?
Speaker 5: What?
Speaker 4: And you you had to do something? It was a
Speaker 4: talent show and I just dropped you there and there
Speaker 4: was one hundred thousand people in the crowd. What would
Speaker 4: your talent pay? Do you have any talent?
Speaker 1: So I did a talent show when I was in
Speaker 1: high school. This is one of the most embarrassing stories
Speaker 1: I can tell. I have a hoodie on right now
Speaker 1: so I can actually reenact this. My headphones are on,
Speaker 1: but I don't have any talents. This is about what
Speaker 1: we're doing right now. Is about the extent of what
Speaker 1: I would consider talent for me. So I was helping
Speaker 1: someone out in high school that put on a talent
Speaker 1: show and they said, I need more participants, will you
Speaker 1: do something? And so I was pretty big into working
Speaker 1: out at the time, so I said, I'll do a
Speaker 1: hundred push ups. So that was gonna be my talent.
Speaker 1: And I came out to Eminem's Lose Yourself with a
Speaker 1: zip up hoodie on. I unzip the hoodie, I throw
Speaker 1: the jacket off. We're going like Chippendale style, and I
Speaker 1: stopped hard at seventy four. It was very embarrassing. Did
Speaker 1: you go to a hundred? I don't know if anybody else,
Speaker 1: but I definitely just sort of collapsed onto the stage.
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm definitely afraid of talent shows now. So
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit nervous even just answering that.
Speaker 2: I think I would probably this sounds really weird and
Speaker 2: it's not really a talent. But I can crack a
Speaker 2: lot of really random bones in my body, like repeatedly,
Speaker 2: Like I can pop my hips repeatedly, my back repeatedly,
Speaker 2: my fingers, like I can do all of that, So
Speaker 2: that might be my talent is I can just crack
Speaker 2: weird bones in my body. I can't think of anything else.
Speaker 2: I'm actually a talentless loser.
Speaker 1: I think that's how we all got into this stucky
Speaker 1: What about you?
Speaker 4: I mean, I've done, I've done, I do karaoke, and
Speaker 4: I do like, how will I know about Whitney Houston?
Speaker 1: But you go Whitney Houston? This bold, my friend, You'd be.
Speaker 4: Sports I mean, my only talents are like sports trivia.
Speaker 4: I can if you in twenty minutes, I can name
Speaker 4: every country and capital of the world A one hundred
Speaker 4: and nineties.
Speaker 1: No, that's phenom. That's really I.
Speaker 4: Would be like super boring, like sitting up there for
Speaker 4: twenty minutes naming every capital and country.
Speaker 1: Now, could you imagine us standing on a stage as
Speaker 1: the Favorites trio doing all three of these things like
Speaker 1: I'm trying to crank out one hundred push ups unsuccessfully
Speaker 1: and stuck. He's trying to name capitals around the world,
Speaker 1: and Kendri just just over here kracking knuckles. That would
Speaker 1: be I think if we did that as a triumvirent,
Speaker 1: we'd actually have some that'd be unique. You could get
Speaker 1: us on America's got talent.
Speaker 4: That is my bar play whatever. I'm at a bar,
Speaker 4: and I'll just bet people all the time that I
Speaker 4: can name every world capital and people will just start
Speaker 4: They'll never they never believe that I can in able
Speaker 4: to start firing countries. And then I've done this talland.
Speaker 1: How did that start?
Speaker 4: Ah? I just wanted to learn it one debt one time.
Speaker 4: I like learning random things. It was useful to qualify
Speaker 4: for Jeopardy, Like if you know every world capital, you
Speaker 4: can get soon you would. You're like you're a base
Speaker 4: for like Jeopardy questions. Just when a country comes up,
Speaker 4: you just learn like all that you learn, like certain cities.
Speaker 4: And so I don't know, I'm weird, but yeah, I
Speaker 4: don't really have any other talents. Like I can't juggle.
Speaker 4: I can't even whistle, like I'm still this day. I
Speaker 4: can't whistle. I can only do the just one. I
Speaker 4: don't know how people like whistle a tune can't do that.
Speaker 1: I'm pretty good at rock paper Scissors? Does that count
Speaker 1: me too?
Speaker 3: Because I know the cheat code? Do you know the
Speaker 3: cheat code?
Speaker 4: Everyone thinks are good at rock? Paer, there's actually a formula.
Speaker 2: There's a formula of rock paper scissors. There actually is,
Speaker 2: do you guys, Let's play.
Speaker 4: First, let's sick. I don't have a formula, let's play.
Speaker 2: Oh okay, I go rock papers. Wait, now we're backwards
Speaker 2: not at the same time. We're gonna have to do
Speaker 2: this in person because we're not at the same time
Speaker 2: streaming leg Yeah, we we will do. There actually is
Speaker 2: a formula. Do you guys know who Live Morgan is
Speaker 2: in WWE?
Speaker 1: Hell? Yeah, we had.
Speaker 2: We did a rock paper scissors battle when I did
Speaker 2: like their netfl thing here, and her and I both
Speaker 2: knew the formula and it took twenty minutes for us
Speaker 2: to get a winner out of it because we both
Speaker 2: knew the formula of how to beat someone at rock
Speaker 2: paper scitors.
Speaker 3: I have a video of it. It was actually so intense.
Speaker 1: I didn't know that there was a formula to it.
Speaker 1: I just am just really good at reading minds when
Speaker 1: it comes to those.
Speaker 2: There's actually a formula to beat someone in rock paper scissors.
Speaker 2: But I can maybe do like some karate stuff. I
Speaker 2: did martial arts for my entire childhood, so maybe whenever
Speaker 2: I'm drunk, I like to like have people put cans
Speaker 2: on stuff and I'll Roundhouse it, so maybe that would
Speaker 2: be my talent.
Speaker 3: I don't know, I'm not very comented.
Speaker 1: Well that's better than cracking up.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I really am talentless, Like I have no artistic
Speaker 4: ability zero. I can't I can draw it the sun,
Speaker 4: and I can't sing, can't dance, So yeah, I might
Speaker 4: just have to have people ask me questions stuff. So yeah,
Speaker 4: I would lose the talent show.
Speaker 1: But anyway, Lisa, I just wanted to set I'm glad
Speaker 1: that we were able to springboard into our talentless lives.
Speaker 1: But I want to give you guys an update on
Speaker 1: Thursday's episode as to how this the concerts tomorrow night.
Speaker 1: So this today is more about my anxiety surrounding it,
Speaker 1: and then Thursday. I can't wait. The one thing I'm
Speaker 1: really excited about is the people watching is going to
Speaker 1: be tremendous. So I'll give you guys the full breakdown
Speaker 1: of all of that. But before we get to the sides,
Speaker 1: let's get to our main dish of the day. Some
Speaker 1: news across the league. Baker Mayfield leads the charge to
Speaker 1: snatch a win on the road against Houston, a gutsy
Speaker 1: fourth down conversion on their final drive, breaking Stucky's heart
Speaker 1: sitting there with the Texans mine. It's two and a
Speaker 1: half ticket and the Chargers absolutely dominated the Raiders. The
Speaker 1: Raiders might just be a bad football team, Stucky. Outside
Speaker 1: of the heartbreaking l you took ats any big takeaways
Speaker 1: from last night?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I always say your NFL weeks are all about
Speaker 4: how much fun you had, and just those like the
Speaker 4: games are always gonna be tight, markets are efficient. How
Speaker 4: how those like final minutes of get your bets come
Speaker 4: down to? And yeah, that was one that was zero fun.
Speaker 4: And it was two weeks in a row. I had
Speaker 4: the Falcons against the Bucks last week, so I've had
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield go down and score a touchdown and back
Speaker 4: to back week so I alsow the Ravens against the Bills,
Speaker 4: which was fun, Chiefs against the I've had a bunch
Speaker 4: of bad No, I've had no fun through two weeks,
Speaker 4: so hopefully that changes. But yeah, that was brutal. I
Speaker 4: mean the Bucks ran it better than the Texans. The
Speaker 4: Texas play calling still left a lot to be desired.
Speaker 4: I thought they were going to really take a step,
Speaker 4: Like the goal at the second and goal at the one,
Speaker 4: those three plays were really they were confusing like the rollout,
Speaker 4: and but they can't run the ball. It's still some
Speaker 4: offensive line issues. I don't think the play calling was
Speaker 4: that improved from I mean a lot of a lot
Speaker 4: of the things I saw were like is Bobby Slogs
Speaker 4: still there? So yeah, it was a good win for
Speaker 4: the Bucks. But they, I mean they got a bit fortunate. Again.
Speaker 4: I mean even in the first quarter, you had their
Speaker 4: touchdown came off of and illegal hands to the face
Speaker 4: on a third and long, which was not a made
Speaker 4: up call, and then there was a tripping that they
Speaker 4: didn't call. So then that those two touchdowns, the other
Speaker 4: touchdown drive they had to drop pick. That was the
Speaker 4: only time they scored until the last minute. But that's
Speaker 4: what Baker Mayfield does in the last minute. All the
Speaker 4: Texans had to do is come with a just compose
Speaker 4: yourself on your your blitz and they would to tell
Speaker 4: fourth and ten. I think they had like an eighty
Speaker 4: five percent win probability on that play, but credit to
Speaker 4: the Bucks probably deserved to win. Texans had some special
Speaker 4: teams play go other way. But yeah, it was an
Speaker 4: impressive last minute drive by Mayfield and company. And yeah,
Speaker 4: Broke mart I had the Texans two in a round robin.
Speaker 4: To close that around robin, I bet the Texans money
Speaker 4: line live. I had the Texans minus two and a
Speaker 4: half and in my big survivor pools ones that like
Speaker 4: hay out millions of dollars. I get risky earlier on
Speaker 4: I used the Texans, So.
Speaker 1: H that's brutal.
Speaker 4: And then yeah, the Chargers just were completely dominant that
Speaker 4: defense so well schemed and Mintor put chip Kelly in
Speaker 4: a blender. It was impressed performance and like Greg Roman,
Speaker 4: like this, he's letting Herbert let it fly. And that's
Speaker 4: like I was. I was very fearful and thought that
Speaker 4: the Chargers like they did that because it was the Chiefs.
Speaker 4: It was game one and they were going to go
Speaker 4: back to being their old conservative selves. But yeah, they
Speaker 4: look really good and they're obvious. They're the favorites to
Speaker 4: win that division for a reason.
Speaker 1: I like how they just casually mentioned that Tom Brady
Speaker 1: is working with Chip Kelly on offense with the Raiders,
Speaker 1: and then they go and score nine points. Gino has
Speaker 1: three picks. Kendrick. If the Raiders were good, people would
Speaker 1: be pissed, and they might be. They might be anyway,
Speaker 1: you can tell me. I know that people in your
Speaker 1: area of the country get all fired up about Tom Brady,
Speaker 1: But is that a big deal or is that something
Speaker 1: because the Raiders aren't very good, No one's going to
Speaker 1: give a shit.
Speaker 3: I think that it is a big deal.
Speaker 2: Do I think that Tom Brady being involved in any way,
Speaker 2: shape or form in the NFL is awesome? Yes, But
Speaker 2: here's the thing, and so many of those pregame production meetings,
Speaker 2: there's so much information given away about their schemes and
Speaker 2: if guys are healthy and what their game plan is
Speaker 2: and YadA YadA. So it's like, it's not a Tom
Speaker 2: Brady issue. If I were Tom and I was allowed
Speaker 2: to have, you know, like a five percent ownership and
Speaker 2: a team and also be on the broadcast to make
Speaker 2: almost forty million dollars a year, it's not a Tom
Speaker 2: Brady problem. It's the fact that the league and Fox
Speaker 2: are letting.
Speaker 3: Him do this.
Speaker 2: So do I think that it's a bad thing for
Speaker 2: the league? Weirdly yes, But it's not a Tom issue.
Speaker 2: At some point, somebody's got a step in and be like, Hey,
Speaker 2: if you're going to be on the broadcast.
Speaker 3: We change the rules for you.
Speaker 2: You can't you can't have the headset on in the booth,
Speaker 2: so I think that that's an issue. Do I think
Speaker 2: it's the biggest issue that the Raiders are facing right now?
Speaker 3: No, obviously not.
Speaker 2: I I'm not sure if this game says but the
Speaker 2: Raiders are bad or the Chargers or that really that
Speaker 2: really that good. I'm just I'm kind of in the
Speaker 2: middle of the Chargers being the best team in that division,
Speaker 2: but also the Raiders not being as bad as this
Speaker 2: game showed. Really, honestly, I think Gino Smith was just
Speaker 2: throwing some terrible, fuck it balls inaccurate uugh, just terrible
Speaker 2: at certain points in this game, and it just it
Speaker 2: got boring quickly. I think mostly I put it on Gino,
Speaker 2: to be honest, like the fact that you held the
Speaker 2: Chargers to twenty points, I don't.
Speaker 3: I don't think that that's I don't.
Speaker 2: I think the Raiders are better than what we watched
Speaker 2: last night. If you look at the box score, it's like, okay, yeah, whatever.
Speaker 2: I'm not about a box score mouth breather watcher, So
Speaker 2: that's not my vibe. I think that it's somewhere in
Speaker 2: the middle of the Chargers being a top team right
Speaker 2: now and the Raiders being a little bit better than
Speaker 2: they were potentially climbing that ladder a little bit. They
Speaker 2: didn't look good last night. I think people are looking
Speaker 2: into it a little bit too much. The Tom Brady thing.
Speaker 2: I think that there's definitely something there, but it's not
Speaker 2: a Tom Brady issue.
Speaker 3: It's a league and a Fox Sports issue.
Speaker 2: As far as the Bucks Texans game goes, Baker Mayfield's
Speaker 2: balls just do not fit in his pants. It's actually
Speaker 2: so impressive, like absolutely beyond impressive. He I love the
Speaker 2: kind of like character arc that his career has had.
Speaker 2: But I think my biggest takeaway from everything last night
Speaker 2: is that I hate the Monday night doubleheader.
Speaker 3: I hate it so much.
Speaker 4: Oh well, I also would say I don't mind it done.
Speaker 1: Less shitty one pm game. Give it to me every week.
Speaker 1: They should do this every week, shave one off of
Speaker 1: the one pm slate, throw it on Monday.
Speaker 4: No, it does maybe less productive because I gotta start
Speaker 4: getting into I get into start just diving into the
Speaker 4: week hard right after the last Monday Night game, so
Speaker 4: when there's two that it's a couple hours later. But
Speaker 4: I don't like when they're staggered Monday Night I've watched
Speaker 4: football in multiple games all weekend. I'd like to just
Speaker 4: have one and then if you're gonna get another one,
Speaker 4: give it to me after. But look, kad gin know
Speaker 4: it was just a He was inaccurate. But the Chargers
Speaker 4: defense was amazing. Darwin James was amazing. There wasn't much separation,
Speaker 4: but Gino was inaccurate, and usually that's one of his strengths,
Speaker 4: especially indoors were usually thrives. So I think the Raiders
Speaker 4: offense will be better. Bowers wasn't one hundred percent. They
Speaker 4: were missing their right guard, so I think their offense
Speaker 4: will be better. But that's another black eye on the
Speaker 4: Patriots defense, who really needs Gonzales back, because look, they
Speaker 4: at the score board didn't show it as far as points,
Speaker 4: but they moved up and down the field Against the Patriots,
Speaker 4: Gino threw for what three point fifty in that game
Speaker 4: or something something along those lines, so they were moving
Speaker 4: the ball will And then they couldn't move the ball
Speaker 4: at all against the Chargers. And then we saw the Dolphins,
Speaker 4: who their entire offensive line is depleted. They basically couldn't
Speaker 4: score a point until garbage against the Colts, and we
Speaker 4: saw what the Dolphins did against the Patriots, putting up
Speaker 4: nearly four hundred yards, So the Patriots defense definitely has
Speaker 4: some issues. Christian Gonzales will help a lot when he
Speaker 4: comes back.
Speaker 1: AFC West. The public the dollars all in on the
Speaker 1: Chargers minus won ten right now over at DraftKings to
Speaker 1: win the division the Chiefs. You want to buy a
Speaker 1: low opportunity. How about the Chiefs at nearly three to
Speaker 1: one there plus two seventy to win the AFC West
Speaker 1: quarterbacks going down fast and furious. That's one of the
Speaker 1: big storylines this week. JJ McCarthy is out with an
Speaker 1: ankle injury. Joe Burrow out several months. So we have
Speaker 1: Jake Browning versus Carson Wentz. Kendra, are you still in
Speaker 1: You were in Sunday Night Early Reads you wanted to
Speaker 1: take the Minnesota Vikings. I don't know if you pulled
Speaker 1: the trigger on that yet, but I did not take
Speaker 1: God Okay, So are you off of that with this nonsense?
Speaker 3: Okay?
Speaker 2: Is it bad that I kind of like the Vikings
Speaker 2: more than I did a couple of nights ago? Because
Speaker 2: if you're gonna give me all right, let's say you
Speaker 2: need to go out and win one game right now,
Speaker 2: and you have, you know, a backyard pick them, Jake
Speaker 2: Browning or Carson Wentz. I'm gonna take Carson Wentz every
Speaker 2: single time.
Speaker 1: Yeah about seven years ago.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but Jeeke, I mean Jake brown up.
Speaker 1: And down the field of the Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't
Speaker 1: know that.
Speaker 4: Browning beat her Jags.
Speaker 2: No, no, no, Jake Browning has always beat the Jags
Speaker 2: anytime he's ever played them. Like, I don't know what
Speaker 2: it is about Jake Browning being the Jaguars kryptonite. The
Speaker 2: one thing you guys have got to learn about me
Speaker 2: quickly is that I'm a realist about the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 2: I have them winning nine games this year. I am
Speaker 2: not one of these super fan girls that is unrealistic
Speaker 2: about the team. They've hurt me for far too long,
Speaker 2: for far too many years. I know where to keep
Speaker 2: them so that they cannot hurt me anymore. I know
Speaker 2: that Jake Browning is their kryptonite. X y Z. I
Speaker 2: just truly and deeply believe that the Vikings have a
Speaker 2: better offensive line. They're gonna give Carson Wentz more time
Speaker 2: to throw the ball. Jamar Chase has not looked like
Speaker 2: himself through the first couple of weeks of the season
Speaker 2: as far as what he's actually capable of doing.
Speaker 3: And I like the Vikings defense better.
Speaker 4: Well, I'll say I don't mind. I don't mind the
Speaker 4: looking at the Viks especially two and a half three,
Speaker 4: because here's how I look at it like going into
Speaker 4: that game, Going into the Sunday night game, I had
Speaker 4: the Vikings as like a one point favorite over the
Speaker 4: Bengals at home, and the Vikings have one of the
Speaker 4: best home field advantages in the NFL. But the Vikings
Speaker 4: look horrendous and they got dominated. Downgraded. The Vikings basically
Speaker 4: now would have made that game a pick close to
Speaker 4: a pick at full strength, So I would have had
Speaker 4: I think bro is worth like five points now, but
Speaker 4: Browning has been pretty good when he's played, so you
Speaker 4: could tell me that it's four and I would buy that.
Speaker 4: But so, all right, so let's adjust the spread out
Speaker 4: of four four and a half. But then McCarthy is out.
Speaker 4: Here's my thing is McCarthy is Wentz worse than McCarthy.
Speaker 4: I don't know, maybe not.
Speaker 1: I don't think we know. I don't think we know
Speaker 1: what the gas between McCarthy.
Speaker 4: We don't know what I'm saying, like there's a chance
Speaker 4: that Wentz is better like McCarthy's body of work. No,
Speaker 4: granted he had offensive line injuries, but it was seven
Speaker 4: of eight quarters were horrendous. I mean, his his pressure
Speaker 4: to sack ratio is the worst in the league. He's
Speaker 4: on he was on pace to break David Carr's unbreakable
Speaker 4: sack single season in sack record of seventy six. He's
Speaker 4: on pace I think for seven. He's on pace for
Speaker 4: seventy six and a half. But obvious he's gonna miss
Speaker 4: time so probably won't break it. But he only get
Speaker 4: he only could throw it to one side of the field.
Speaker 4: He was super inaccurate. Like it was bad. He had
Speaker 4: one quarter and by the way, the Bears did you
Speaker 4: see with the lines into them without their corners. He
Speaker 4: was playing the Bears without their corners. Aj Terrell missed
Speaker 4: the second half their only lockdown corners, so they hadn't
Speaker 4: like play more. They still couldn't move the ball. So
Speaker 4: but I will say you the injuries for the Vikings
Speaker 4: are worth watching. That's like, what's gonna make or break
Speaker 4: this for me? You have Garrisol their left tackle. They
Speaker 4: need him back Kelly, their center went out, even their
Speaker 4: backup left tackle went out. Like their offensive line was
Speaker 4: a disaster. And then on the defensive side, they've already
Speaker 4: lost Cashman Van Yinkle missed last week, Harrison Smith missed
Speaker 4: last week, Akuda missed last week. So there's a lot
Speaker 4: of key injuries. But if they're healthier on the defensive
Speaker 4: side and on the offensive line, I can get behind
Speaker 4: the Vikings at three or better because I McCarthy might
Speaker 4: just be bad.
Speaker 3: Now I think he is.
Speaker 4: Maybe he's two games, just just two games, but what
Speaker 4: we have so far, just the sample, that game against
Speaker 4: Atlanta from an EPA per play perspective, was worse than
Speaker 4: Jaron Hall against the Packers like two years ago. For
Speaker 4: the Vikings, who came in, threw a pick that led
Speaker 4: to points, fumbled led to points, they got blown out,
Speaker 4: and he got benched. That that game was so bad,
Speaker 4: that was the one of the words. And I don't
Speaker 4: think I think that O'Connell knows it. Like they weren't
Speaker 4: being aggressive. He punted on that fourth and one basically
Speaker 4: like surrender punt. So yeah, there might just not be
Speaker 4: a drop off from McCarthy to Wentz. But I gotta
Speaker 4: monitor some of these injuries because if their defense is healthy,
Speaker 4: they're gonna bring pressure, and that Bengals offensive line is
Speaker 4: not gonna be able to hold up. Then Brown is
Speaker 4: probably gonna make a couple of mistakes.
Speaker 3: He's made so many mistakes this weekend.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but I mean he's not the worst backup. He's
Speaker 4: pretty serious, but he's done well.
Speaker 1: But he'd be like to Minnesota, the top five backup.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but in Minnesota, if that defense is healthy, there's
Speaker 4: probably gonna be some key mistakes. But interesting game two backups.
Speaker 4: It's not a game I don't think anyone is really
Speaker 4: gonna love. But that's the key to it. How much
Speaker 4: do you think of a drop off? Number one is
Speaker 4: Burrow to Browning, Like some people have seen that, I
Speaker 4: respect say it's like three and a half points three
Speaker 4: three and a half. I think it's more than that.
Speaker 4: And how much of a drop off from from McCarthy
Speaker 4: to Wentz, Like someone could say it's two points, someone
Speaker 4: could say it's nothing, someone could say McCarthy's so bad
Speaker 4: that it's an.
Speaker 3: Improvement, like s I'm in that camp.
Speaker 4: So that's that's like where this is gonna come down to.
Speaker 4: And then Obviously, the line's at three, and whatever the
Speaker 4: market thinks is what those margins is probably going to
Speaker 4: decide whether this closes three and a half, four or
Speaker 4: three two and a half.
Speaker 1: I think the Bengals, you kick that up to plus nine.
Speaker 1: I think that's a great teaser leg just with how
Speaker 1: ugly this game is likely to be. The totals really
Speaker 1: low forty one, and like I think we've laid it
Speaker 1: out nicely here, there's a lot of unknown with how
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks, how much we should be adjusting these lines
Speaker 1: based on the drop off of these quarterbacks. The Bengals
Speaker 1: are also they were fifty or they are now fifty
Speaker 1: to one to win the Super Bowl. I don't know
Speaker 1: anybody that's trying to place that bet right now. They
Speaker 1: opened at twenty to one, they're two and oh yet
Speaker 1: plus nine point fifty to win the Division. One other
Speaker 1: quarterback injury. I want to get to. Jayden Daniels is
Speaker 1: day to day with the knee injury. The Commanders get
Speaker 1: the Raiders on Sunday. The line went from the Commanders
Speaker 1: minus six and a half, that was the line that
Speaker 1: opened up before the game's wrapped up on Sunday, to
Speaker 1: the Commander's minus three and a half, So it seems
Speaker 1: like there is some market sentiment that he might miss
Speaker 1: this one that would explain that drastic of a line move.
Speaker 1: Anyone willing to take the plunge on a Mariota revenge game?
Speaker 1: And how about this, before you scream no into the microphone,
Speaker 1: Mariota is two and oh straight up. The last two
Speaker 1: times he had to take the majority of snaps at quarterback,
Speaker 1: both last season, both with the Commanders.
Speaker 4: I get catch you got anything?
Speaker 2: No, I don't think I want anything to do with
Speaker 2: this game. To be honest, I'd probably lean the Raiders
Speaker 2: to cover the number, but I just it's too yucky
Speaker 2: for me.
Speaker 3: I can't get there.
Speaker 4: It's a it's a tough spot for the Raiders, just
Speaker 4: on the surface. Right, divisional game Monday night, they were
Speaker 4: in New England and they came across the country. Now
Speaker 4: there to kind of come across the country again, Washington
Speaker 4: is going to be much more well rested, right they're
Speaker 4: coming they have They played on Thursday night, the Raiders
Speaker 4: played on Monday night. Now coming back across the country.
Speaker 4: So not ideal in that sense. I don't know on
Speaker 4: Daniels like because last year he was he was supposed
Speaker 4: to miss time, but he ended up playing right, remember
Speaker 4: with his the rib injury, so I could see him
Speaker 4: giving it a go, and with the with the way
Speaker 4: the Raiders play the play defense just trying to prevent
Speaker 4: the explosive play like Daniels could end up picking them apart,
Speaker 4: even if he isn't as mobile. But Mariota's fine as
Speaker 4: a backup, and he did well last year when he
Speaker 4: came in. You know, obviously it's a drop off there still,
Speaker 4: but uh, that's when we're going to have to monitor.
Speaker 4: But yeah, they're the market's basically saying like we think
Speaker 4: he's gonna miss, but not fully. So it's kind of
Speaker 4: like in wait and see mode, so we'll see. I
Speaker 4: have just a gut feeling that he's gonna play. But
Speaker 4: circling back to Bengals Vikings, I don't mind your thought
Speaker 4: process on the tees with the low total going across
Speaker 4: up above a touchdown, but I will say I don't
Speaker 4: generally like the teas games with we just talked about
Speaker 4: how much so much uncertainty, so we just because of
Speaker 4: that uncertainty, it kind of devalues a teaser a bit.
Speaker 4: So like I like when I know, okay, I got
Speaker 4: two bad quarterbacks, it's gonna be low scoring and there's
Speaker 4: more certainty, where as opposed to this game where it's like,
Speaker 4: well I don't know the drop off or I don't
Speaker 4: know the injuries, I don't know how bad McCarthy is,
Speaker 4: blah blah blah. So that will be my only hesitation there.
Speaker 4: But Raiders Washington bad spot for the Raiders. But obviously
Speaker 4: the injury is the big thing there. So I got
Speaker 4: nothing there.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 4: I will say if you got plus six and a
Speaker 4: half is a good bet. But I've done that. I've
Speaker 4: done that so many times, get ahead of quarterback injury
Speaker 4: news and then the backup will come in and they'll
Speaker 4: win by ten. But I have gotten there.
Speaker 2: I also kind of had the same idea that you did,
Speaker 2: and thank god I didn't get to the window on it.
Speaker 2: But I was thinking in the Patriots Dolphins game last
Speaker 2: week and I was like, Okay, two bad quarterbacks, maybe
Speaker 2: this could be an under scenario, and they just went.
Speaker 3: It was the first time the Patriots put up more
Speaker 3: than thirty points in like three or four years.
Speaker 2: I just I think that that might have gotten me
Speaker 2: off of betting a total like this also, I wanted
Speaker 2: to circle back to this. I got schooled in my
Speaker 2: own betting strategy the other day about the Vikings game
Speaker 2: and new dads.
Speaker 3: I forgot that the key part of this.
Speaker 2: And one of the girls that like religiously listens to
Speaker 2: my shows DMed me and said that I fucked up
Speaker 2: because I am religious about only betting on new girl
Speaker 2: dads and not boy dads. I didn't know JJ McCarthy
Speaker 2: had a boy, but it has always been the girl
Speaker 2: dad's strategy.
Speaker 4: You're going to keep filtering this every time something happens.
Speaker 4: So it's only girl.
Speaker 3: I'm seeing this on now. Girl Dad's only girl Dad's.
Speaker 1: Girls that girls with names that start with the letter M.
Speaker 1: You know, we just we'll continue to see. We just
Speaker 1: need this tract, Evan, if you could get on this,
Speaker 1: we want that in the primer.
Speaker 2: I'll take I'll take Owen one for now, but as
Speaker 2: we know, moving forward, it's only girls.
Speaker 1: I don't even I think maybe the thing to add
Speaker 1: to the as a caveat to this is that JJ
Speaker 1: McCarthy's like twelve years old, and maybe that's the reason,
Speaker 1: you know, he doesn't have like, he doesn't have real
Speaker 1: like dad energy. You know, JJ McCarthy looks like he's
Speaker 1: still sophomore in college.
Speaker 3: He's a child having a child exactly.
Speaker 1: So I feel like that that I can throw that
Speaker 1: one out for that reason. This is something I wanted
Speaker 1: to update folks on and maybe we'll do this on
Speaker 1: Tuesdays shows moving forward. If people like it enough, who's
Speaker 1: printing money for us? Who we need to be a
Speaker 1: little bit weary about. It's too early to really gleam
Speaker 1: anything legitimate from this, but I like to look at
Speaker 1: this throughout the course of the season. Evan, feel free
Speaker 1: to pop in the chat and verify any of these
Speaker 1: if I misspeak. In terms of these numbers against the
Speaker 1: spread standings, there are seven teams right now that are
Speaker 1: two and zero against the closing number, Green Bay, Tampa, Indianapolis,
Speaker 1: the La rams La Chargers, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco forty
Speaker 1: nine ers. Do any of those stand out as I
Speaker 1: want to fade them so quickly at the soonest opportunity,
Speaker 1: I guess is the best way to ask this, because
Speaker 1: you can't go undefeated against the spread.
Speaker 4: Well, Number one, you don't overreact generally. Week three, you know,
Speaker 4: for for example, I'll win two against the spread underdogs
Speaker 4: in week three or since two thousand and three, or
Speaker 4: seventy two to fifty one and one against the spread,
Speaker 4: about fifty eight and a half percent. That would apply
Speaker 4: this week to the Dolphins, Saints, Texans, and Broncos. But
Speaker 4: one of the teams I might want to face, I
Speaker 4: think they might have been up I upgraded the Colts
Speaker 4: a lot. The problem is it requires me to beout
Speaker 4: the Titans, which I'll probably do anyway, so great.
Speaker 1: I wish they were playing anyone but the Titans. I
Speaker 1: would be in on the other team this week. I
Speaker 1: just hear it. I can't get it.
Speaker 4: Here's where like the Colts, I think they've I make
Speaker 4: that two and a half, it's three and a half,
Speaker 4: which means I probably have to take it. But I'll
Speaker 4: just give you a crazy stat which illustrates, like, hey,
Speaker 4: you don't want to overreact to small sample sizes and
Speaker 4: what you just saw too much, so in weeks two
Speaker 4: through five, so early in the season, when you might
Speaker 4: end up overreacting to to a team winning as an underdog,
Speaker 4: so a home underdog that one outright, which was the
Speaker 4: Colts last week. That then when that goat then goes
Speaker 4: on the road and is a favorite since two thousand
Speaker 4: and three. Those teams are seventeen thirty nine and one
Speaker 4: against the spread thirty percent, failing to cover by about
Speaker 4: six points per game when they're fair by more than
Speaker 4: a field goal six and sixteen against the spread when
Speaker 4: that team that they're playing has a losing record eleven
Speaker 4: twenty nine and one against the spread twenty seven and
Speaker 4: a half percent. I will say on that game, So
Speaker 4: it will be the Colts for me. The Titans last week.
Speaker 4: I mean, the Titans were right there with the Ms
Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter. What ended up happening, what ended
Speaker 4: up burning them. There was a fumble like it was
Speaker 4: like a three point game in the fourth quarter, and
Speaker 4: then cam Wood got stripsacked and then the game was
Speaker 4: over at his own twenty. But they didn't have sweat
Speaker 4: in the interior defensive line, and that ended up being
Speaker 4: huge because they were doubling Simmons and he wore down
Speaker 4: and he had nothing left in the fourth quarter, and
Speaker 4: they didn't have Latham. His backup was horrendous. And then
Speaker 4: they lost Zeitler, one of the better guards in the country.
Speaker 4: He went out and then their offensive line fell apart.
Speaker 4: So I need to see that. They need to get
Speaker 4: Zeitler and laith them back, and then they need Sweat
Speaker 4: on the defensive line because then you just double Simmons.
Speaker 4: If you have sweat and Simmons, you can't double one
Speaker 4: or the other, and then they're in tier. Defense of
Speaker 4: line becomes scary. So it might be the Titans for me,
Speaker 4: like that just home dog won't win, go on the
Speaker 4: road in a divisional game now favored by over a field goal.
Speaker 4: I think it's a little too much, So that would
Speaker 4: be the one for me.
Speaker 2: MAYA first thought was to look at it's crazy that
Speaker 2: you're asking me this question. As I scroll through the schedule,
Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, the Bucks are playing the Jets, the
Speaker 2: Colts are playing the tight Ends, the forty nine ers
Speaker 2: are playing the Cardinals, because those would have been my
Speaker 2: first kind of thoughts of places to look, especially because.
Speaker 3: The forty nine ers are playing Mac Jones. But he
Speaker 3: bawled out last week.
Speaker 2: I think we should probably stop talking shit about him
Speaker 2: because it worked. But like I just I don't think
Speaker 2: any of these teams this week or in a place
Speaker 2: where I want to fade them. But it wouldn't be
Speaker 2: the Colds for me. The spread's not big enough for
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3: Is Biger hurt? Do we think?
Speaker 2: Because it might be the bucks for me if he
Speaker 2: actually is just one of these guys where if he
Speaker 2: gets injured and people are talking shit to him, then
Speaker 2: he comes up and performs like nothing we've ever seen,
Speaker 2: which I do think might be the case, but it
Speaker 2: might be the I think that the best maybe value
Speaker 2: on the.
Speaker 3: Board, if that's what you're looking for, is got to
Speaker 3: be the box.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Jets are Jets.
Speaker 1: Why you start Tyrod Taylor too? That's another quarterback injury
Speaker 1: we didn't miss.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but that is that much of Is that a
Speaker 4: drop off from Fields? I don't like we saw like
Speaker 4: we kind of know Fields is bad. I bought him.
Speaker 1: I think Tyrod Taylor is justin fields, but with he
Speaker 1: doesn't he's just not as successful a runner at least
Speaker 1: justin fields.
Speaker 4: Has that in his fields, will make mistakes like Taylor
Speaker 4: never makes mistakes. So that's a good thing that you
Speaker 4: want with an underdog like not to win the game,
Speaker 4: but they're like stay in it and cover seven with
Speaker 4: a low total like Tyre Taylor was like top five
Speaker 4: all time among qualified quarterbacks and the interception rate, so
Speaker 4: he's not gonna make mistakes. He can run the offense.
Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean I faded the Bucks the first
Speaker 4: two weeks. I probably would again, but.
Speaker 1: They won Week one.
Speaker 4: They should have lost week too. They usially lost it.
Speaker 4: They could easily be going to and this would be
Speaker 4: a much different discussion. And you have to keep in
Speaker 4: mind they're banged up, so their receivers are still all
Speaker 4: banged up. And you got to saus Gardner too for
Speaker 4: Mike Evans. Their offensive line is a mess. So it
Speaker 4: might be the what's that?
Speaker 3: I think it might be the Bucks.
Speaker 4: They lost their rights, they lost get a key, they
Speaker 4: already were without worfs, So yeah, the Bucks don't seem
Speaker 4: like a team that is as of right now, is
Speaker 4: built to really win by margin. They're kind of eking
Speaker 4: out these games and they're getting a lot of breaks,
Speaker 4: like they got another drop pick yesterday, a fumble that
Speaker 4: didn't get recovered. Although they're special teams were they were
Speaker 4: a bit unlucky, but the refs helped them out a
Speaker 4: bunch early. So yeah, the Jets, that line is probably
Speaker 4: gonna go up when Tyrod Taylor, Yeah, probably did.
Speaker 3: It's a touchdown, right, now.
Speaker 4: Seven yeah and a half, which I wouldn't like, but
Speaker 4: it's even seven and a half.
Speaker 3: I think I get there.
Speaker 1: The juice on the game is telling a story that
Speaker 1: early money's coming in on Tampa. The I bought it
Speaker 1: at minus one oh five on Sunday after the Justin
Speaker 1: Fields injury. It's now sitting at minus one fifteen in
Speaker 1: most places. So it's probably going to get to seven
Speaker 1: and a half, especially with the Taylor news and yeah, man,
Speaker 1: at that point, especially if it kicks any higher. Tyrod
Speaker 1: Taylor is in my opinion, a downgrade from Justin Fields,
Speaker 1: even though Fields had a one point one quarterback rating
Speaker 1: last week. But it's not that drastic. In terms of
Speaker 1: the luck rankings, those are out there Action Network dot Com.
Speaker 1: Keep updated with that. After Week one, the Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: Buccaneers were number one. I imagine that the latest luck
Speaker 1: ranking is going to have them right towards the top
Speaker 1: of the list as well, So keep that in mind.
Speaker 1: Yeah exactly. As far as the seven teams yet to
Speaker 1: cover a spread Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Kansas City, Miami,
Speaker 1: and New Orleans, and maybe one of those teams pops
Speaker 1: up as we play our flag it is time to
Speaker 1: go around the horn here one game that you are
Speaker 1: pot committed on. Here on Tuesday will lay out our
Speaker 1: official picks. We'll do our three Musketeers, all for one,
Speaker 1: one for all, and all for one Farlay on Thursday.
Speaker 1: But right now, one pick that's already in the back pocket, Kendra,
Speaker 1: what you got.
Speaker 3: I already put it down.
Speaker 2: My entire existence this year is just going to be
Speaker 2: fading the Patriots. This is going to be three weeks
Speaker 2: in a row.
Speaker 3: I'm one in one, but I'm going.
Speaker 2: To fade the Patriots this week against the Steelers, Mike
Speaker 2: tom And I believe is five hundred in his career
Speaker 2: against the Patriots obviously did not do so hot against
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick.
Speaker 3: I want to say he was.
Speaker 2: Three and eight against Bill Belichick. Evan, please feel free
Speaker 2: to check that. I believe that that is what I
Speaker 2: wrote down in my notes, which I accidentally closed. But
Speaker 2: I had just once again coaching thing. Their defense is
Speaker 2: a lot better, Drake May is not impressing me. The
Speaker 2: Patriots defense and special teams looked like crap this week.
Speaker 2: I think that they're going to have a lot of energy,
Speaker 2: a lot of hype, but you could just be the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: I think that they need a crash course back to reality,
Speaker 2: and that's going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.
Speaker 3: I get that they didn't look like a world beater.
Speaker 2: I didn't expect them to this season, but they're a
Speaker 2: much better team on paper and on the field. I
Speaker 2: don't see how people are on the Patriots this week.
Speaker 4: Sound sounds like Kendrick's going to try to fade the
Speaker 4: Patriots every single week. We'll see what she brings on Thursday.
Speaker 4: Do you have any update on Gonzales?
Speaker 2: So that was the thing that I was thinking about
Speaker 2: last week, is so I think I told you guys
Speaker 2: that on his Instagram story he was posting like a
Speaker 2: bunch of cryptic stuff that sounded like he was going
Speaker 2: to be back and going to be ready to play,
Speaker 2: and then it came out later in the week. I
Speaker 2: want to say, like Thursday Friday, that there was really
Speaker 2: not a chance that he was going to play. So
Speaker 2: I for me, it feels almost like they're holding him
Speaker 2: out even though there is always has been that question
Speaker 2: around his toughness as a player.
Speaker 3: We talked about on Sunday that that's potentially.
Speaker 2: Why he fell in the draft. I think that he
Speaker 2: has to be back this week. You cannot nurse a
Speaker 2: hamstring for two months. I'm sorry, you just you cannot
Speaker 2: do that, especially when your team needs you. They dk
Speaker 2: metcalfet Friarmooth like they've got weapons on this team. They
Speaker 2: need Gonzalez back otherwise there's not even a ship shot
Speaker 2: in hell that this is gonna happen.
Speaker 4: Yeah, two defenses that are struggle. I mean, the Steelers
Speaker 4: defense looks horrendous, and their special teams looks bad too,
Speaker 4: I mean Aleb Johnson. But the Steers are a bunch
Speaker 4: of defensive injuries also that are are worth monitoring very
Speaker 4: every I don't know what means, but.
Speaker 1: So defense is so bad as it is. I'm on
Speaker 1: the Patriots this week.
Speaker 2: Can't go with you, I got now, but I'll go
Speaker 2: got to break the tie, Stucky, you gotta do it.
Speaker 3: Pick a side.
Speaker 1: I will on.
Speaker 4: Thursday, I gotta. I gotta look into some injuries some more,
Speaker 4: but I'll.
Speaker 1: We don't break ties on Tuesdays.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna come up with some head to heads like bets.
Speaker 4: So like yet someone has to pay it off. What
Speaker 4: you have to do, but I'm gonna. I'm I'm still
Speaker 4: brainstorming on that to make make it a little fun.
Speaker 4: But I'll play my flag on the Rams plus three
Speaker 4: and a half. The Eagles right now can't beat anybody
Speaker 4: by margin like they are now. Granted, part of this
Speaker 4: is because the tush play. I mean they're twelve percent
Speaker 4: of their plays were the tush push. Last week. They're
Speaker 4: averaging four point three yards per play. And they played
Speaker 4: the Cowboys defense, which gave up seven hundred points to
Speaker 4: the Giants and who couldn't score against Washington. And then
Speaker 4: they played the Chiefs defense, who got shredded by the
Speaker 4: Chargers but had issues on the back end. They couldn't
Speaker 4: take their play. Calll is so bad. If Goddard's out again,
Speaker 4: like it's it's a mess. They can't throw it. How
Speaker 4: is his Eagles team getting margin to anyone? It's like
Speaker 4: they're worse than last year. The Rams almost beat them
Speaker 4: in Philly in the playoffs. It was a dead even
Speaker 4: game statistically, and the Rams had two turnovers and didn't
Speaker 4: convert on two four downs. Rams are playing really well.
Speaker 4: They've obviously had this game circled. McVeigh does really well
Speaker 4: on these East Coast trips. He is and by way
Speaker 4: phase eighteen eleven and two against the spread of the
Speaker 4: dog of three plus fourteen to seven and one against
Speaker 4: the spread in the Eastern time zone, covering by five
Speaker 4: points per game, so it's covering two out of three
Speaker 4: sixty seven percent. I think the reps gonna be right
Speaker 4: there that this Eagles team just can't get margin than anyone.
Speaker 4: Their defense is in as good, play calling is so bad,
Speaker 4: and there's I don't know if Brown is hurt, if
Speaker 4: they're stuck in the mud, but I'm sure they'll end
Speaker 4: up winning by like three because I mean, think about
Speaker 4: last week. They easily lose that game. If Kelsey catches
Speaker 4: a free touchdown, that play was worth negative seven and
Speaker 4: a half points free touchdown into an interception. They also
Speaker 4: were gifted three when the Chiefs couldn't get one yard
Speaker 4: they made a fifty yard They easily could have lost
Speaker 4: that game. We've had a different conversation about how bad
Speaker 4: their offense is, but because they're two to zero, no
Speaker 4: one's really talking about it. I think anything over three
Speaker 4: you have to take here. This Eagles offense is a
Speaker 4: mess right now. They just there. They have two completions
Speaker 4: over twelve yards all year, and they play and on
Speaker 4: one of the gains of the Cowboys. I think Russ
Speaker 4: had like seventeen in one game against the Cowboys defense.
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm taking the Rams plus three and a half.
Speaker 4: I think that game probably goes down to the wire
Speaker 4: and a little. I just have a sneaky suspicion. McVeigh
Speaker 4: inquired with the league office today about the tush bush.
Speaker 4: He was one that was against it. He was like,
Speaker 4: you used to be on the rules committee. I have
Speaker 4: a sneaky fision. You're gonna see fall starts or off
Speaker 4: sides on the offense called this week when they do
Speaker 4: it all this, yeah about it and how they I
Speaker 4: mean the Eagles went off sides on them, like they
Speaker 4: fall started like on three of them last week. Oh yeah,
Speaker 4: so and they lined up illegal. You're gonna get flags
Speaker 4: on that play. And that is so big, Like you
Speaker 4: just get a flag on one of those plays, Like
Speaker 4: if you just take the Eagles from fourth and one
Speaker 4: or to fourth and six, well that's a punt or
Speaker 4: third to one to third and six, well then they
Speaker 4: actually have to throw it downfield. That is huge for
Speaker 4: the entire game. So if there's like a couple of
Speaker 4: flags on those plays, just watch out for that. I
Speaker 4: like the Rams plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: H I like that pick Bears minus one is my
Speaker 1: plant the flag pick off a blowout loss, taking on
Speaker 1: a Cowboys team off of five quarters of football. They
Speaker 1: almost played until the bone on that one. Chicago at
Speaker 1: home the last five seasons have been nearly three points
Speaker 1: better in terms of their home and road splits. That
Speaker 1: ranks top ten in the NFL over that time. Early
Speaker 1: action also tilting in that direction. I already grabbed the
Speaker 1: minus one zho five on them minus one. We're seeing
Speaker 1: that line tick up to minus one and a half
Speaker 1: in some places. But I like Chicago in the bounce back.
Speaker 1: And now for the main event. No betting week can
Speaker 1: be complete without it, or can you even start without it?
Speaker 1: The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome to the show.
Speaker 1: What are we looking at this week as far as
Speaker 1: our primer stats that we need to know before we
Speaker 1: place these bets.
Speaker 5: What's going on everybody? I mean, it's just impossible not
Speaker 5: to talk about favorites at the moment. I too this
Speaker 5: out there. They don't lose anymore, It's insane. I just
Speaker 5: these numbers feel fake. It's video game like, but right now,
Speaker 5: closing favorites four points or more twelve and oh straight
Speaker 5: up this year, there's sixty four and seven ninety percent
Speaker 5: Since Week thirteen of last season in that same league
Speaker 5: I love in that listen, in that same span, favorites
Speaker 5: is six plus points, forty seven and four. Again, all
Speaker 5: fields just very dumb at this point, and even last night,
Speaker 5: so Chargers went on the road. Road favorites ninety and
Speaker 5: thirty two just since the start of last season, So
Speaker 5: even road chalk, I think the home field advantage thing stuck.
Speaker 5: You were talking about it with Minnesota kind of having
Speaker 5: one of the best in the NFL. Aside from that, like,
Speaker 5: I just think road favorites are becoming more valuable and
Speaker 5: probably just price just the same other things. I'll be
Speaker 5: looking at this week. Backup quarterback, So I have a
Speaker 5: database myself with every backup quarterback over the last like
Speaker 5: fifteen years, so I want to dig a little bit
Speaker 5: into this many backups as early in the season. I'll
Speaker 5: say this in terms of our data. So you guys
Speaker 5: are talking about Pittsburgh and the Patriots right now. The
Speaker 5: Patriots are the biggest public side on Tuesday morning, ninety
Speaker 5: one percent of tickets, so nobody wants to bet the
Speaker 5: zero to two ats Steelers getting nine percent right now
Speaker 5: as a road favorite, which also isn't great for Tomlin.
Speaker 5: I'll say this as well. Teams with sixty percent of
Speaker 5: tickets are more two and thirteen against the spread according
Speaker 5: to our data this year. So the real chalk getting
Speaker 5: absolutely hammered. I mean, there's a lot of stuff, but
Speaker 5: there's a great Monday night football game. And I'll leave
Speaker 5: you with this. John Harbaugh twenty three and four straight
Speaker 5: up at home and night games with the Ravens. Stuck
Speaker 5: knows this even early in the season, nineteen and one
Speaker 5: in that spot. So pretty tough one for Detroit. I
Speaker 5: think the spread five and a half six for a reason,
Speaker 5: and Detroit off of a big win, that's going to
Speaker 5: be a lot of tickets on that game.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I will Ravens one thing you want to watch.
Speaker 4: Likely does he come back, But more importantly, it looks
Speaker 4: like Van Neyt's probably gonna be out. Humphrey is key.
Speaker 4: You need him in the slot, especially against Detroit. Jaya
Speaker 4: Alexander is he gonna be back, But the Humphrey's out,
Speaker 4: like in their corner. Depth is not great right now,
Speaker 4: but he's so key to that defense. If he's in,
Speaker 4: I think Ravens went by seven plus. If he's not,
Speaker 4: gets a little diceier, But the Ravens are gonna score.
Speaker 4: Probably I will against Detroit. I will also go back
Speaker 4: to your Bears point one. I almost always play this
Speaker 4: team after a team after losing by thirty points the
Speaker 4: week before. If you go back to two thousand and three,
Speaker 4: after a loss of thirty plus, teams are one forty
Speaker 4: nine ten against the spread, outs over fifty five percent
Speaker 4: when they're an underdog or favored by less than three
Speaker 4: sixty percent against the spread. And Johnson owns eebra flus.
Speaker 4: My only concern is the Bears. The Bears defensive injuries,
Speaker 4: Like it looks like Jalen Johnson's going to miss the year,
Speaker 4: which is huge. They're all pro corner Kyler Gordon. I
Speaker 4: think he's probably gonna be out again throughout the really
Speaker 4: good corner. So their corner room is horrendous right now.
Speaker 4: So like, how are they stopping Dak and those receivers.
Speaker 4: I don't know. I really don't know, because it's not
Speaker 4: like they can get a ton of pressure. So I'm
Speaker 4: trying to decide if I want to bet the Bears
Speaker 4: or if I just want to bet the Bears team
Speaker 4: total over like twenty five or whatever it's going to be.
Speaker 4: But I don't mind your Bears. Look there after an
Speaker 4: embarrassing loss and the Cowboys who should have lost to
Speaker 4: the Giants. The other thing that worries me, though, is
Speaker 4: the kick. We have the new kickoff rules. This is
Speaker 4: the biggest kicker mismatch in NFL history. You got a
Speaker 4: kicker who could make it from seventy and then you
Speaker 4: got Santo's who is his like range? Is his max
Speaker 4: range is like forty two?
Speaker 1: So need the Windy City to show up in this one?
Speaker 2: Well, put some respect on Cam Little, the only man
Speaker 2: to kick a seventy yarder.
Speaker 4: Well it's not not officially, sorry, oh my god, not officially.
Speaker 1: Evan, before we cut you loose. By the time we
Speaker 1: get most people listen to the Thursday episode, they will
Speaker 1: over either already made up their minds for Bills Dolphins,
Speaker 1: or we'll be past that point. Is there anything for
Speaker 1: Thursday Night, whether it's big double digit favorites on Thursdays,
Speaker 1: the Bills at home, the Bills at home against Miami,
Speaker 1: Is there anything you've looked at as far as that
Speaker 1: matchup goes.
Speaker 5: I mean, I guess if you want to take Miami
Speaker 5: the one end, so you can look at as the
Speaker 5: fact that Dogs are six and two in night games
Speaker 5: this year, so it's a decent start. But anything you
Speaker 5: look at when it comes to two against Buffalo is
Speaker 5: just gross. It's let's see Miami two and thirteen straight
Speaker 5: up versus Josh Allen win eight straight up in Buffalo
Speaker 5: one and eight with TUA, and then the two a
Speaker 5: stat that really scares me and probably scares most people.
Speaker 5: Two and thirteen straight up four ten and one against
Speaker 5: the spread away from home versus winning teams in his career,
Speaker 5: and I believe he's lost ten great in that spot.
Speaker 5: So just a real, real, real bad one.
Speaker 4: But the only thing I'll add though, is that it's
Speaker 4: the spread is twelve and a half correct, Like this
Speaker 4: is different than now, is worse than.
Speaker 5: You second second biggest of his career he was plus
Speaker 5: fifteen against Buffalo in twenty one, so yeah, this number
Speaker 5: is massive, So.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is it's a huge number. Like if you
Speaker 4: look back, I think the biggest like McDermott is zero
Speaker 4: to three against the spread against the Dolphins when he's
Speaker 4: favored by more than a field goal, and he's never
Speaker 4: been favored by more than seven. Last year in this
Speaker 4: game in Buffalo in November, and Miami was not good.
Speaker 4: The Bills closed six and a half, they won by three,
Speaker 4: and they probably should have lost. So this is a
Speaker 4: big adjustment. But Miami's obviously way worse. You got to
Speaker 4: decide how much worse. I mean, I make this like
Speaker 4: ten point seven. The other thing is, I mean they're
Speaker 4: offensive line semester's injuries. Their secondary is the mess. The
Speaker 4: Bills have injuries too that are worth watching, like Toron Johnson,
Speaker 4: Milano Oliver like those are three of their best defenders,
Speaker 4: so it's worth watching there. But and I will say
Speaker 4: I having divisional double digit divisional dogs are usually a
Speaker 4: good bet I think over the last forty years or
Speaker 4: like fifty five percent. But you gotta bet the Dolphins
Speaker 4: have a ton of injuries too. But you gotta bet this.
Speaker 4: This Miami team, I mean, this Miami team is it.
Speaker 4: Did you see the operation in the last minute against
Speaker 4: the Patriots. They went first and ten at the forty
Speaker 4: to go to win the game, They got a delay
Speaker 4: of game and then they got a. I think they
Speaker 4: got another delay of game and then.
Speaker 3: There's gonna twist a knife on me right now.
Speaker 4: Didn't they have two delay of games in a row.
Speaker 3: It was, you're just what you can you know what?
Speaker 3: You want to pull the knife out of my back
Speaker 3: right now? Please, thank you.
Speaker 4: It was and then they had to rush to play
Speaker 4: the next play. Some you gotta go back and watch it.
Speaker 5: It was.
Speaker 3: It was I'm gonna do after this. I'm gonna go
Speaker 3: rewatch the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and then and then it takes the sack
Speaker 1: and boom boom goes to the dynamite and the like.
Speaker 4: Think about this. It's first and ten and at the
Speaker 4: New England forty four the minute fifteen, and they completed
Speaker 4: for eighteen yards first and ten at the twenty six
Speaker 4: minute nine. You're in perfect position to win this game, sorry, Kendrew.
Speaker 4: Delay of game, uh, first and fifteen. Delayed game again,
Speaker 4: first and twenty and then they they have to they
Speaker 4: rush the snap with like one second. Everyone was confused
Speaker 4: three plays in a row, and then you get sacked
Speaker 4: and then sacked.
Speaker 3: And I was sitting at the bar trying to drink
Speaker 3: my pickled beer.
Speaker 2: In peace with a bunch of Patriots fans feeling really good,
Speaker 2: and then you know.
Speaker 4: The thing, keep paying eventually get one.
Speaker 2: I got, I got the Raiders. What I faded the Patriots?
Speaker 2: Week one one with the Raiders plus one thirty one?
Speaker 4: Oh gotcha? Okay, last week one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly last week. I should have won last week
Speaker 3: And now you know what, I'm rocking with my Ayahuasca
Speaker 3: King and Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 4: Are you committed to doing this all eighteen already?
Speaker 3: I already did it. It's already tracked in the action app.
Speaker 3: We're good to go.
Speaker 4: No, I'm saying, are you committed to doing this every week?
Speaker 4: You're gonna fait the Patriots.
Speaker 2: Give me until week's live to make a decision. But
Speaker 2: for the most part, they ruined my life in twenty seventeen,
Speaker 2: so probably.
Speaker 4: Oh you know what. Next week the Patriots host your Panthers.
Speaker 3: My sadcuts are back.
Speaker 4: I will say no Panthers, the injury news, Hunt and
Speaker 4: Corbett they're starting too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm already on the Panthers.
Speaker 4: Not good. Yeah, that's gonna be your biggest bet of
Speaker 4: the year. Panthers at Patriots.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I love the few words.
Speaker 1: Evan, Thank you, you're a gentleman and a scholar, and
Speaker 1: that'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our
Speaker 1: producers Matt Mitchell, the Icon and Gifford Gould on video.
Speaker 1: The Favorites will return on Thursday right here on the
Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page when we talk Week three bets
Speaker 1: and we get our official parlay in there. Good luck
Speaker 1: with all your bets. We'll see you next time right
Speaker 1: here on the Favorites. Cash these tickets cheers.
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