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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites podcast, part of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Your Favorite Trio is back. I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz,

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Speaker 1: joined by the wonderfully insightful and talented Stucky and Kendrick Middleton.

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Speaker 1: On today's episode, We've got our plant the flag, game

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Speaker 1: of the week for week three, some picks that have

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Speaker 1: us in a pickle, and of course the main event

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Speaker 1: evans Tuesday Primer guys, sort of a weird week for me.

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Speaker 1: Tomorrow night, I'm headed to the Sleep Token concert. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you've ever heard of this band. I

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Speaker 1: sent a picture of the lead singer in our group

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Speaker 1: chat slightly frightening. It's members in the band remain anonymous

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Speaker 1: because they all wear masks, so you can kind of

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Speaker 1: get an idea, like think old school wrestling. Demolition is

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Speaker 1: kind of what I'm going to here any words of them,

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Speaker 1: because I feel like a complete fish out of water,

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Speaker 1: like Irock Khaki's on a regular basis, I feel like

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Speaker 1: I don't fit it.

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Speaker 2: Square black that would be, I think the best thing

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Speaker 2: you can do. I know that you have a pair

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Speaker 2: of black pants, I know you have a black T shirt.

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Speaker 3: Just wear black.

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Speaker 2: I went to see Red Hot Chili Peppers or in

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Speaker 2: Atlanta a couple of years ago and they had some

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Speaker 2: like K pop scream o band come out and apparently

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Speaker 2: they're huge, and I had no idea and half of

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Speaker 2: the crowd was there to see them, and it was

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Speaker 2: the It was like little girls screaming with like heavy

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Speaker 2: metal in the back. Oh, there's some One of their

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Speaker 2: songs is like something chocolate. I know somebody who's gonna

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Speaker 2: watch this on YouTube is gonna know exactly what I'm

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Speaker 2: talking about.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna have to send it to you guys later.

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Speaker 2: But I'm sitting there just watching their opener and these

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Speaker 2: little girls come out in these scary like death metal

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Speaker 2: costumes and just start screaming. And it was the weirdest

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Speaker 2: experience I've ever felt in my life. I was not

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Speaker 2: dressed in enough black just when end out black it out?

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Speaker 1: All right? No eyeliner, skip the eyeliner, just go or

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Speaker 1: like should I go football EyeBlack under.

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Speaker 3: The Derek Carr.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I have no advice. I haven't been to a

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Speaker 4: concert since college sports. From my life, I have not. Literally,

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Speaker 4: I think the last concert I went to was so

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Speaker 4: I went to school in DC. I honestly think it

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Speaker 4: was like Kanye West came for some college fest thing

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Speaker 4: and that was the last concert.

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Speaker 1: Wow, you get to see him before he went absolutely bananas.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it was like college dropout albums. So yeah, that

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Speaker 4: was when.

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Speaker 1: That's a vibrant See that's and that's my style. Like

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Speaker 1: I'm more of a catch a Kanye in his prime.

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Speaker 1: Maybe some Bruno mars. I'm going, I don't know how

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Speaker 1: my wife got into this group, but you know, she's

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Speaker 1: she's much more hardcore than I am. And I'm just

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Speaker 1: going to be a supportive husband. But I got to

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Speaker 1: get into it. Otherwise I'm gonna be that I'll be

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Speaker 1: the you know, the Jewish husband that's like, all right,

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Speaker 1: when's this thing gonna end? So I at least you

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Speaker 1: want to I at least want to do my part.

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Speaker 1: I just I don't know what I'm getting myself into.

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Speaker 1: A Yeah, well, like you know, like hip hop pop,

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Speaker 1: that's usually more my vibe.

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Speaker 3: Isn't he in trouble for gambling?

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Speaker 5: Oh?

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Speaker 1: This is our kind of guy. We should get Bruno

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Speaker 1: on the on the Favorites podcast.

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Speaker 2: I think he owes Vegas like a million dollars or something,

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Speaker 2: so he has to like perform his way out of it.

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Speaker 1: Oait, Yeah, I that's why I'm hosting this podcast. Also,

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Speaker 1: it's well behind the scenes for all of you.

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Speaker 4: No, it's remember I did read that that.

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Speaker 1: He I'm reading allegedly is the is the proper phrasing

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Speaker 1: on Bruno and his gambling exploits.

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Speaker 4: From anywhere from seven million to fifty million.

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Speaker 3: That's a big number.

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Speaker 1: You got really suck at this. That's like some Drake

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Speaker 1: stats right.

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Speaker 2: There, the guy who screwed the Jaguars over on FanDuel

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Speaker 2: or whatever.

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Speaker 4: I gotta look at it this more. We'll put you

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Speaker 4: on the spot. What if i'd put you if I

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Speaker 4: dropped you on a stage? What what?

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Speaker 5: What?

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Speaker 4: And you you had to do something? It was a

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Speaker 4: talent show and I just dropped you there and there

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Speaker 4: was one hundred thousand people in the crowd. What would

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Speaker 4: your talent pay? Do you have any talent?

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Speaker 1: So I did a talent show when I was in

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Speaker 1: high school. This is one of the most embarrassing stories

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Speaker 1: I can tell. I have a hoodie on right now

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Speaker 1: so I can actually reenact this. My headphones are on,

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Speaker 1: but I don't have any talents. This is about what

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Speaker 1: we're doing right now. Is about the extent of what

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Speaker 1: I would consider talent for me. So I was helping

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Speaker 1: someone out in high school that put on a talent

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Speaker 1: show and they said, I need more participants, will you

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Speaker 1: do something? And so I was pretty big into working

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Speaker 1: out at the time, so I said, I'll do a

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Speaker 1: hundred push ups. So that was gonna be my talent.

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Speaker 1: And I came out to Eminem's Lose Yourself with a

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Speaker 1: zip up hoodie on. I unzip the hoodie, I throw

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Speaker 1: the jacket off. We're going like Chippendale style, and I

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Speaker 1: stopped hard at seventy four. It was very embarrassing. Did

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Speaker 1: you go to a hundred? I don't know if anybody else,

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Speaker 1: but I definitely just sort of collapsed onto the stage.

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Speaker 1: So I'm I'm definitely afraid of talent shows now. So

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Speaker 1: I'm a little bit nervous even just answering that.

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Speaker 2: I think I would probably this sounds really weird and

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Speaker 2: it's not really a talent. But I can crack a

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Speaker 2: lot of really random bones in my body, like repeatedly,

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Speaker 2: Like I can pop my hips repeatedly, my back repeatedly,

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Speaker 2: my fingers, like I can do all of that, So

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Speaker 2: that might be my talent is I can just crack

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Speaker 2: weird bones in my body. I can't think of anything else.

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Speaker 2: I'm actually a talentless loser.

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Speaker 1: I think that's how we all got into this stucky

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Speaker 1: What about you?

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Speaker 4: I mean, I've done, I've done, I do karaoke, and

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Speaker 4: I do like, how will I know about Whitney Houston?

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Speaker 1: But you go Whitney Houston? This bold, my friend, You'd be.

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Speaker 4: Sports I mean, my only talents are like sports trivia.

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Speaker 4: I can if you in twenty minutes, I can name

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Speaker 4: every country and capital of the world A one hundred

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Speaker 4: and nineties.

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Speaker 1: No, that's phenom. That's really I.

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Speaker 4: Would be like super boring, like sitting up there for

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Speaker 4: twenty minutes naming every capital and country.

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Speaker 1: Now, could you imagine us standing on a stage as

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Speaker 1: the Favorites trio doing all three of these things like

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to crank out one hundred push ups unsuccessfully

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Speaker 1: and stuck. He's trying to name capitals around the world,

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Speaker 1: and Kendri just just over here kracking knuckles. That would

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Speaker 1: be I think if we did that as a triumvirent,

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Speaker 1: we'd actually have some that'd be unique. You could get

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Speaker 1: us on America's got talent.

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Speaker 4: That is my bar play whatever. I'm at a bar,

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Speaker 4: and I'll just bet people all the time that I

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Speaker 4: can name every world capital and people will just start

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Speaker 4: They'll never they never believe that I can in able

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Speaker 4: to start firing countries. And then I've done this talland.

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Speaker 1: How did that start?

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Speaker 4: Ah? I just wanted to learn it one debt one time.

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Speaker 4: I like learning random things. It was useful to qualify

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Speaker 4: for Jeopardy, Like if you know every world capital, you

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Speaker 4: can get soon you would. You're like you're a base

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Speaker 4: for like Jeopardy questions. Just when a country comes up,

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Speaker 4: you just learn like all that you learn, like certain cities.

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Speaker 4: And so I don't know, I'm weird, but yeah, I

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Speaker 4: don't really have any other talents. Like I can't juggle.

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Speaker 4: I can't even whistle, like I'm still this day. I

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Speaker 4: can't whistle. I can only do the just one. I

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Speaker 4: don't know how people like whistle a tune can't do that.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty good at rock paper Scissors? Does that count

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Speaker 1: me too?

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Speaker 3: Because I know the cheat code? Do you know the

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Speaker 3: cheat code?

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Speaker 4: Everyone thinks are good at rock? Paer, there's actually a formula.

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Speaker 2: There's a formula of rock paper scissors. There actually is,

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Speaker 2: do you guys, Let's play.

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Speaker 4: First, let's sick. I don't have a formula, let's play.

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Speaker 2: Oh okay, I go rock papers. Wait, now we're backwards

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Speaker 2: not at the same time. We're gonna have to do

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Speaker 2: this in person because we're not at the same time

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Speaker 2: streaming leg Yeah, we we will do. There actually is

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Speaker 2: a formula. Do you guys know who Live Morgan is

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Speaker 2: in WWE?

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Speaker 1: Hell? Yeah, we had.

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Speaker 2: We did a rock paper scissors battle when I did

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Speaker 2: like their netfl thing here, and her and I both

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Speaker 2: knew the formula and it took twenty minutes for us

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Speaker 2: to get a winner out of it because we both

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Speaker 2: knew the formula of how to beat someone at rock

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Speaker 2: paper scitors.

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Speaker 3: I have a video of it. It was actually so intense.

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Speaker 1: I didn't know that there was a formula to it.

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Speaker 1: I just am just really good at reading minds when

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Speaker 1: it comes to those.

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Speaker 2: There's actually a formula to beat someone in rock paper scissors.

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Speaker 2: But I can maybe do like some karate stuff. I

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Speaker 2: did martial arts for my entire childhood, so maybe whenever

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Speaker 2: I'm drunk, I like to like have people put cans

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Speaker 2: on stuff and I'll Roundhouse it, so maybe that would

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Speaker 2: be my talent.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, I'm not very comented.

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Speaker 1: Well that's better than cracking up.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I really am talentless, Like I have no artistic

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Speaker 4: ability zero. I can't I can draw it the sun,

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Speaker 4: and I can't sing, can't dance, So yeah, I might

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Speaker 4: just have to have people ask me questions stuff. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: I would lose the talent show.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, Lisa, I just wanted to set I'm glad

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Speaker 1: that we were able to springboard into our talentless lives.

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Speaker 1: But I want to give you guys an update on

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Speaker 1: Thursday's episode as to how this the concerts tomorrow night.

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Speaker 1: So this today is more about my anxiety surrounding it,

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Speaker 1: and then Thursday. I can't wait. The one thing I'm

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Speaker 1: really excited about is the people watching is going to

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Speaker 1: be tremendous. So I'll give you guys the full breakdown

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Speaker 1: of all of that. But before we get to the sides,

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Speaker 1: let's get to our main dish of the day. Some

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Speaker 1: news across the league. Baker Mayfield leads the charge to

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Speaker 1: snatch a win on the road against Houston, a gutsy

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Speaker 1: fourth down conversion on their final drive, breaking Stucky's heart

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Speaker 1: sitting there with the Texans mine. It's two and a

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Speaker 1: half ticket and the Chargers absolutely dominated the Raiders. The

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Speaker 1: Raiders might just be a bad football team, Stucky. Outside

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Speaker 1: of the heartbreaking l you took ats any big takeaways

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Speaker 1: from last night?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I always say your NFL weeks are all about

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Speaker 4: how much fun you had, and just those like the

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Speaker 4: games are always gonna be tight, markets are efficient. How

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Speaker 4: how those like final minutes of get your bets come

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Speaker 4: down to? And yeah, that was one that was zero fun.

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Speaker 4: And it was two weeks in a row. I had

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Speaker 4: the Falcons against the Bucks last week, so I've had

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Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield go down and score a touchdown and back

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Speaker 4: to back week so I alsow the Ravens against the Bills,

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Speaker 4: which was fun, Chiefs against the I've had a bunch

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Speaker 4: of bad No, I've had no fun through two weeks,

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Speaker 4: so hopefully that changes. But yeah, that was brutal. I

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Speaker 4: mean the Bucks ran it better than the Texans. The

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Speaker 4: Texas play calling still left a lot to be desired.

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Speaker 4: I thought they were going to really take a step,

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Speaker 4: Like the goal at the second and goal at the one,

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Speaker 4: those three plays were really they were confusing like the rollout,

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Speaker 4: and but they can't run the ball. It's still some

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Speaker 4: offensive line issues. I don't think the play calling was

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Speaker 4: that improved from I mean a lot of a lot

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Speaker 4: of the things I saw were like is Bobby Slogs

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Speaker 4: still there? So yeah, it was a good win for

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Speaker 4: the Bucks. But they, I mean they got a bit fortunate. Again.

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Speaker 4: I mean even in the first quarter, you had their

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Speaker 4: touchdown came off of and illegal hands to the face

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Speaker 4: on a third and long, which was not a made

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Speaker 4: up call, and then there was a tripping that they

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Speaker 4: didn't call. So then that those two touchdowns, the other

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Speaker 4: touchdown drive they had to drop pick. That was the

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Speaker 4: only time they scored until the last minute. But that's

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Speaker 4: what Baker Mayfield does in the last minute. All the

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Speaker 4: Texans had to do is come with a just compose

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Speaker 4: yourself on your your blitz and they would to tell

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Speaker 4: fourth and ten. I think they had like an eighty

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Speaker 4: five percent win probability on that play, but credit to

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Speaker 4: the Bucks probably deserved to win. Texans had some special

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Speaker 4: teams play go other way. But yeah, it was an

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Speaker 4: impressive last minute drive by Mayfield and company. And yeah,

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Speaker 4: Broke mart I had the Texans two in a round robin.

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Speaker 4: To close that around robin, I bet the Texans money

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Speaker 4: line live. I had the Texans minus two and a

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Speaker 4: half and in my big survivor pools ones that like

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Speaker 4: hay out millions of dollars. I get risky earlier on

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Speaker 4: I used the Texans, So.

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Speaker 1: H that's brutal.

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Speaker 4: And then yeah, the Chargers just were completely dominant that

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Speaker 4: defense so well schemed and Mintor put chip Kelly in

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Speaker 4: a blender. It was impressed performance and like Greg Roman,

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Speaker 4: like this, he's letting Herbert let it fly. And that's

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Speaker 4: like I was. I was very fearful and thought that

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Speaker 4: the Chargers like they did that because it was the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: It was game one and they were going to go

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Speaker 4: back to being their old conservative selves. But yeah, they

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Speaker 4: look really good and they're obvious. They're the favorites to

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Speaker 4: win that division for a reason.

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Speaker 1: I like how they just casually mentioned that Tom Brady

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Speaker 1: is working with Chip Kelly on offense with the Raiders,

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Speaker 1: and then they go and score nine points. Gino has

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Speaker 1: three picks. Kendrick. If the Raiders were good, people would

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Speaker 1: be pissed, and they might be. They might be anyway,

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Speaker 1: you can tell me. I know that people in your

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Speaker 1: area of the country get all fired up about Tom Brady,

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Speaker 1: But is that a big deal or is that something

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Speaker 1: because the Raiders aren't very good, No one's going to

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Speaker 1: give a shit.

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Speaker 3: I think that it is a big deal.

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Speaker 2: Do I think that Tom Brady being involved in any way,

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Speaker 2: shape or form in the NFL is awesome? Yes, But

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Speaker 2: here's the thing, and so many of those pregame production meetings,

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Speaker 2: there's so much information given away about their schemes and

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Speaker 2: if guys are healthy and what their game plan is

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Speaker 2: and YadA YadA. So it's like, it's not a Tom

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Speaker 2: Brady issue. If I were Tom and I was allowed

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Speaker 2: to have, you know, like a five percent ownership and

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Speaker 2: a team and also be on the broadcast to make

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Speaker 2: almost forty million dollars a year, it's not a Tom

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Speaker 2: Brady problem. It's the fact that the league and Fox

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Speaker 2: are letting.

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Speaker 3: Him do this.

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Speaker 2: So do I think that it's a bad thing for

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Speaker 2: the league? Weirdly yes, But it's not a Tom issue.

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Speaker 2: At some point, somebody's got a step in and be like, Hey,

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Speaker 2: if you're going to be on the broadcast.

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Speaker 3: We change the rules for you.

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Speaker 2: You can't you can't have the headset on in the booth,

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Speaker 2: so I think that that's an issue. Do I think

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Speaker 2: it's the biggest issue that the Raiders are facing right now?

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Speaker 3: No, obviously not.

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Speaker 2: I I'm not sure if this game says but the

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Speaker 2: Raiders are bad or the Chargers or that really that

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Speaker 2: really that good. I'm just I'm kind of in the

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Speaker 2: middle of the Chargers being the best team in that division,

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Speaker 2: but also the Raiders not being as bad as this

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Speaker 2: game showed. Really, honestly, I think Gino Smith was just

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Speaker 2: throwing some terrible, fuck it balls inaccurate uugh, just terrible

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Speaker 2: at certain points in this game, and it just it

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Speaker 2: got boring quickly. I think mostly I put it on Gino,

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Speaker 2: to be honest, like the fact that you held the

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Speaker 2: Chargers to twenty points, I don't.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that that's I don't.

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Speaker 2: I think the Raiders are better than what we watched

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Speaker 2: last night. If you look at the box score, it's like, okay, yeah, whatever.

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Speaker 2: I'm not about a box score mouth breather watcher, So

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Speaker 2: that's not my vibe. I think that it's somewhere in

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Speaker 2: the middle of the Chargers being a top team right

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Speaker 2: now and the Raiders being a little bit better than

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Speaker 2: they were potentially climbing that ladder a little bit. They

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Speaker 2: didn't look good last night. I think people are looking

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Speaker 2: into it a little bit too much. The Tom Brady thing.

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Speaker 2: I think that there's definitely something there, but it's not

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Speaker 2: a Tom Brady issue.

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Speaker 3: It's a league and a Fox Sports issue.

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Speaker 2: As far as the Bucks Texans game goes, Baker Mayfield's

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Speaker 2: balls just do not fit in his pants. It's actually

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Speaker 2: so impressive, like absolutely beyond impressive. He I love the

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Speaker 2: kind of like character arc that his career has had.

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Speaker 2: But I think my biggest takeaway from everything last night

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Speaker 2: is that I hate the Monday night doubleheader.

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Speaker 3: I hate it so much.

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Speaker 4: Oh well, I also would say I don't mind it done.

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Speaker 1: Less shitty one pm game. Give it to me every week.

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Speaker 1: They should do this every week, shave one off of

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Speaker 1: the one pm slate, throw it on Monday.

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Speaker 4: No, it does maybe less productive because I gotta start

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Speaker 4: getting into I get into start just diving into the

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Speaker 4: week hard right after the last Monday Night game, so

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Speaker 4: when there's two that it's a couple hours later. But

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Speaker 4: I don't like when they're staggered Monday Night I've watched

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Speaker 4: football in multiple games all weekend. I'd like to just

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Speaker 4: have one and then if you're gonna get another one,

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Speaker 4: give it to me after. But look, kad gin know

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Speaker 4: it was just a He was inaccurate. But the Chargers

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Speaker 4: defense was amazing. Darwin James was amazing. There wasn't much separation,

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Speaker 4: but Gino was inaccurate, and usually that's one of his strengths,

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Speaker 4: especially indoors were usually thrives. So I think the Raiders

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Speaker 4: offense will be better. Bowers wasn't one hundred percent. They

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Speaker 4: were missing their right guard, so I think their offense

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Speaker 4: will be better. But that's another black eye on the

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Speaker 4: Patriots defense, who really needs Gonzales back, because look, they

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Speaker 4: at the score board didn't show it as far as points,

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Speaker 4: but they moved up and down the field Against the Patriots,

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Speaker 4: Gino threw for what three point fifty in that game

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Speaker 4: or something something along those lines, so they were moving

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Speaker 4: the ball will And then they couldn't move the ball

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Speaker 4: at all against the Chargers. And then we saw the Dolphins,

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Speaker 4: who their entire offensive line is depleted. They basically couldn't

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Speaker 4: score a point until garbage against the Colts, and we

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Speaker 4: saw what the Dolphins did against the Patriots, putting up

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Speaker 4: nearly four hundred yards, So the Patriots defense definitely has

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Speaker 4: some issues. Christian Gonzales will help a lot when he

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Speaker 4: comes back.

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Speaker 1: AFC West. The public the dollars all in on the

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Speaker 1: Chargers minus won ten right now over at DraftKings to

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Speaker 1: win the division the Chiefs. You want to buy a

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Speaker 1: low opportunity. How about the Chiefs at nearly three to

364
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Speaker 1: one there plus two seventy to win the AFC West

365
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Speaker 1: quarterbacks going down fast and furious. That's one of the

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Speaker 1: big storylines this week. JJ McCarthy is out with an

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Speaker 1: ankle injury. Joe Burrow out several months. So we have

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Speaker 1: Jake Browning versus Carson Wentz. Kendra, are you still in

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Speaker 1: You were in Sunday Night Early Reads you wanted to

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Speaker 1: take the Minnesota Vikings. I don't know if you pulled

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Speaker 1: the trigger on that yet, but I did not take

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Speaker 1: God Okay, So are you off of that with this nonsense?

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Speaker 3: Okay?

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Speaker 2: Is it bad that I kind of like the Vikings

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Speaker 2: more than I did a couple of nights ago? Because

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Speaker 2: if you're gonna give me all right, let's say you

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Speaker 2: need to go out and win one game right now,

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Speaker 2: and you have, you know, a backyard pick them, Jake

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Speaker 2: Browning or Carson Wentz. I'm gonna take Carson Wentz every

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Speaker 2: single time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah about seven years ago.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but Jeeke, I mean Jake brown up.

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Speaker 1: And down the field of the Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't

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Speaker 1: know that.

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Speaker 4: Browning beat her Jags.

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Speaker 2: No, no, no, Jake Browning has always beat the Jags

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Speaker 2: anytime he's ever played them. Like, I don't know what

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Speaker 2: it is about Jake Browning being the Jaguars kryptonite. The

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Speaker 2: one thing you guys have got to learn about me

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Speaker 2: quickly is that I'm a realist about the Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Speaker 2: I have them winning nine games this year. I am

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Speaker 2: not one of these super fan girls that is unrealistic

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Speaker 2: about the team. They've hurt me for far too long,

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Speaker 2: for far too many years. I know where to keep

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Speaker 2: them so that they cannot hurt me anymore. I know

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Speaker 2: that Jake Browning is their kryptonite. X y Z. I

397
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Speaker 2: just truly and deeply believe that the Vikings have a

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Speaker 2: better offensive line. They're gonna give Carson Wentz more time

399
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Speaker 2: to throw the ball. Jamar Chase has not looked like

400
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Speaker 2: himself through the first couple of weeks of the season

401
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Speaker 2: as far as what he's actually capable of doing.

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Speaker 3: And I like the Vikings defense better.

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Speaker 4: Well, I'll say I don't mind. I don't mind the

404
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Speaker 4: looking at the Viks especially two and a half three,

405
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Speaker 4: because here's how I look at it like going into

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Speaker 4: that game, Going into the Sunday night game, I had

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Speaker 4: the Vikings as like a one point favorite over the

408
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Speaker 4: Bengals at home, and the Vikings have one of the

409
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Speaker 4: best home field advantages in the NFL. But the Vikings

410
00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,919
Speaker 4: look horrendous and they got dominated. Downgraded. The Vikings basically

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Speaker 4: now would have made that game a pick close to

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Speaker 4: a pick at full strength, So I would have had

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Speaker 4: I think bro is worth like five points now, but

414
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 4: Browning has been pretty good when he's played, so you

415
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Speaker 4: could tell me that it's four and I would buy that.

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Speaker 4: But so, all right, so let's adjust the spread out

417
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Speaker 4: of four four and a half. But then McCarthy is out.

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Speaker 4: Here's my thing is McCarthy is Wentz worse than McCarthy.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, maybe not.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we know. I don't think we know

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Speaker 1: what the gas between McCarthy.

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Speaker 4: We don't know what I'm saying, like there's a chance

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Speaker 4: that Wentz is better like McCarthy's body of work. No,

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Speaker 4: granted he had offensive line injuries, but it was seven

425
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Speaker 4: of eight quarters were horrendous. I mean, his his pressure

426
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Speaker 4: to sack ratio is the worst in the league. He's

427
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Speaker 4: on he was on pace to break David Carr's unbreakable

428
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Speaker 4: sack single season in sack record of seventy six. He's

429
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Speaker 4: on pace I think for seven. He's on pace for

430
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Speaker 4: seventy six and a half. But obvious he's gonna miss

431
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Speaker 4: time so probably won't break it. But he only get

432
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Speaker 4: he only could throw it to one side of the field.

433
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Speaker 4: He was super inaccurate. Like it was bad. He had

434
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Speaker 4: one quarter and by the way, the Bears did you

435
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Speaker 4: see with the lines into them without their corners. He

436
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Speaker 4: was playing the Bears without their corners. Aj Terrell missed

437
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 4: the second half their only lockdown corners, so they hadn't

438
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 4: like play more. They still couldn't move the ball. So

439
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 4: but I will say you the injuries for the Vikings

440
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 4: are worth watching. That's like, what's gonna make or break

441
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 4: this for me? You have Garrisol their left tackle. They

442
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 4: need him back Kelly, their center went out, even their

443
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 4: backup left tackle went out. Like their offensive line was

444
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 4: a disaster. And then on the defensive side, they've already

445
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 4: lost Cashman Van Yinkle missed last week, Harrison Smith missed

446
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 4: last week, Akuda missed last week. So there's a lot

447
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 4: of key injuries. But if they're healthier on the defensive

448
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 4: side and on the offensive line, I can get behind

449
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 4: the Vikings at three or better because I McCarthy might

450
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 4: just be bad.

451
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 3: Now I think he is.

452
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 4: Maybe he's two games, just just two games, but what

453
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 4: we have so far, just the sample, that game against

454
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 4: Atlanta from an EPA per play perspective, was worse than

455
00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 4: Jaron Hall against the Packers like two years ago. For

456
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 4: the Vikings, who came in, threw a pick that led

457
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 4: to points, fumbled led to points, they got blown out,

458
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 4: and he got benched. That that game was so bad,

459
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 4: that was the one of the words. And I don't

460
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 4: think I think that O'Connell knows it. Like they weren't

461
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 4: being aggressive. He punted on that fourth and one basically

462
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 4: like surrender punt. So yeah, there might just not be

463
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 4: a drop off from McCarthy to Wentz. But I gotta

464
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 4: monitor some of these injuries because if their defense is healthy,

465
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 4: they're gonna bring pressure, and that Bengals offensive line is

466
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 4: not gonna be able to hold up. Then Brown is

467
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 4: probably gonna make a couple of mistakes.

468
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 3: He's made so many mistakes this weekend.

469
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, but I mean he's not the worst backup. He's

470
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 4: pretty serious, but he's done well.

471
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 1: But he'd be like to Minnesota, the top five backup.

472
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, but in Minnesota, if that defense is healthy, there's

473
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 4: probably gonna be some key mistakes. But interesting game two backups.

474
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 4: It's not a game I don't think anyone is really

475
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 4: gonna love. But that's the key to it. How much

476
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 4: do you think of a drop off? Number one is

477
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 4: Burrow to Browning, Like some people have seen that, I

478
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,480
Speaker 4: respect say it's like three and a half points three

479
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 4: three and a half. I think it's more than that.

480
00:22:55,240 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 4: And how much of a drop off from from McCarthy

481
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 4: to Wentz, Like someone could say it's two points, someone

482
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 4: could say it's nothing, someone could say McCarthy's so bad

483
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 4: that it's an.

484
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 3: Improvement, like s I'm in that camp.

485
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 4: So that's that's like where this is gonna come down to.

486
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 4: And then Obviously, the line's at three, and whatever the

487
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 4: market thinks is what those margins is probably going to

488
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 4: decide whether this closes three and a half, four or

489
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 4: three two and a half.

490
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 1: I think the Bengals, you kick that up to plus nine.

491
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 1: I think that's a great teaser leg just with how

492
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: ugly this game is likely to be. The totals really

493
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 1: low forty one, and like I think we've laid it

494
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 1: out nicely here, there's a lot of unknown with how

495
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks, how much we should be adjusting these lines

496
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: based on the drop off of these quarterbacks. The Bengals

497
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 1: are also they were fifty or they are now fifty

498
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 1: to one to win the Super Bowl. I don't know

499
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:02,719
Speaker 1: anybody that's trying to place that bet right now. They

500
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: opened at twenty to one, they're two and oh yet

501
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 1: plus nine point fifty to win the Division. One other

502
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 1: quarterback injury. I want to get to. Jayden Daniels is

503
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: day to day with the knee injury. The Commanders get

504
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 1: the Raiders on Sunday. The line went from the Commanders

505
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 1: minus six and a half, that was the line that

506
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 1: opened up before the game's wrapped up on Sunday, to

507
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: the Commander's minus three and a half, So it seems

508
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 1: like there is some market sentiment that he might miss

509
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 1: this one that would explain that drastic of a line move.

510
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 1: Anyone willing to take the plunge on a Mariota revenge game?

511
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: And how about this, before you scream no into the microphone,

512
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 1: Mariota is two and oh straight up. The last two

513
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: times he had to take the majority of snaps at quarterback,

514
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 1: both last season, both with the Commanders.

515
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,199
Speaker 4: I get catch you got anything?

516
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 2: No, I don't think I want anything to do with

517
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 2: this game. To be honest, I'd probably lean the Raiders

518
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 2: to cover the number, but I just it's too yucky

519
00:24:58,880 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 2: for me.

520
00:24:59,160 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 3: I can't get there.

521
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 4: It's a it's a tough spot for the Raiders, just

522
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 4: on the surface. Right, divisional game Monday night, they were

523
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 4: in New England and they came across the country. Now

524
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 4: there to kind of come across the country again, Washington

525
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 4: is going to be much more well rested, right they're

526
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 4: coming they have They played on Thursday night, the Raiders

527
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 4: played on Monday night. Now coming back across the country.

528
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 4: So not ideal in that sense. I don't know on

529
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 4: Daniels like because last year he was he was supposed

530
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 4: to miss time, but he ended up playing right, remember

531
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 4: with his the rib injury, so I could see him

532
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 4: giving it a go, and with the with the way

533
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 4: the Raiders play the play defense just trying to prevent

534
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 4: the explosive play like Daniels could end up picking them apart,

535
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 4: even if he isn't as mobile. But Mariota's fine as

536
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 4: a backup, and he did well last year when he

537
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 4: came in. You know, obviously it's a drop off there still,

538
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 4: but uh, that's when we're going to have to monitor.

539
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 4: But yeah, they're the market's basically saying like we think

540
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 4: he's gonna miss, but not fully. So it's kind of

541
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 4: like in wait and see mode, so we'll see. I

542
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 4: have just a gut feeling that he's gonna play. But

543
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 4: circling back to Bengals Vikings, I don't mind your thought

544
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 4: process on the tees with the low total going across

545
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 4: up above a touchdown, but I will say I don't

546
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 4: generally like the teas games with we just talked about

547
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 4: how much so much uncertainty, so we just because of

548
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 4: that uncertainty, it kind of devalues a teaser a bit.

549
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 4: So like I like when I know, okay, I got

550
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 4: two bad quarterbacks, it's gonna be low scoring and there's

551
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 4: more certainty, where as opposed to this game where it's like,

552
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 4: well I don't know the drop off or I don't

553
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 4: know the injuries, I don't know how bad McCarthy is,

554
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,640
Speaker 4: blah blah blah. So that will be my only hesitation there.

555
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 4: But Raiders Washington bad spot for the Raiders. But obviously

556
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 4: the injury is the big thing there. So I got

557
00:26:59,520 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 4: nothing there.

558
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: Now.

559
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 4: I will say if you got plus six and a

560
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 4: half is a good bet. But I've done that. I've

561
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 4: done that so many times, get ahead of quarterback injury

562
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 4: news and then the backup will come in and they'll

563
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 4: win by ten. But I have gotten there.

564
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 2: I also kind of had the same idea that you did,

565
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 2: and thank god I didn't get to the window on it.

566
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 2: But I was thinking in the Patriots Dolphins game last

567
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 2: week and I was like, Okay, two bad quarterbacks, maybe

568
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 2: this could be an under scenario, and they just went.

569
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 3: It was the first time the Patriots put up more

570
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 3: than thirty points in like three or four years.

571
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 2: I just I think that that might have gotten me

572
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: off of betting a total like this also, I wanted

573
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,919
Speaker 2: to circle back to this. I got schooled in my

574
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 2: own betting strategy the other day about the Vikings game

575
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 2: and new dads.

576
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 3: I forgot that the key part of this.

577
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 2: And one of the girls that like religiously listens to

578
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 2: my shows DMed me and said that I fucked up

579
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 2: because I am religious about only betting on new girl

580
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 2: dads and not boy dads. I didn't know JJ McCarthy

581
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 2: had a boy, but it has always been the girl

582
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 2: dad's strategy.

583
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 4: You're going to keep filtering this every time something happens.

584
00:27:59,000 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 4: So it's only girl.

585
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 3: I'm seeing this on now. Girl Dad's only girl Dad's.

586
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 1: Girls that girls with names that start with the letter M.

587
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 1: You know, we just we'll continue to see. We just

588
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 1: need this tract, Evan, if you could get on this,

589
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 1: we want that in the primer.

590
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 2: I'll take I'll take Owen one for now, but as

591
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 2: we know, moving forward, it's only girls.

592
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: I don't even I think maybe the thing to add

593
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: to the as a caveat to this is that JJ

594
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 1: McCarthy's like twelve years old, and maybe that's the reason,

595
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,400
Speaker 1: you know, he doesn't have like, he doesn't have real

596
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: like dad energy. You know, JJ McCarthy looks like he's

597
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 1: still sophomore in college.

598
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 3: He's a child having a child exactly.

599
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 1: So I feel like that that I can throw that

600
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: one out for that reason. This is something I wanted

601
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:45,600
Speaker 1: to update folks on and maybe we'll do this on

602
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: Tuesdays shows moving forward. If people like it enough, who's

603
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: printing money for us? Who we need to be a

604
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 1: little bit weary about. It's too early to really gleam

605
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 1: anything legitimate from this, but I like to look at

606
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 1: this throughout the course of the season. Evan, feel free

607
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 1: to pop in the chat and verify any of these

608
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: if I misspeak. In terms of these numbers against the

609
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 1: spread standings, there are seven teams right now that are

610
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 1: two and zero against the closing number, Green Bay, Tampa, Indianapolis,

611
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 1: the La rams La Chargers, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco forty

612
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 1: nine ers. Do any of those stand out as I

613
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 1: want to fade them so quickly at the soonest opportunity,

614
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 1: I guess is the best way to ask this, because

615
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:28,479
Speaker 1: you can't go undefeated against the spread.

616
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 4: Well, Number one, you don't overreact generally. Week three, you know,

617
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 4: for for example, I'll win two against the spread underdogs

618
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 4: in week three or since two thousand and three, or

619
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 4: seventy two to fifty one and one against the spread,

620
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 4: about fifty eight and a half percent. That would apply

621
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 4: this week to the Dolphins, Saints, Texans, and Broncos. But

622
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 4: one of the teams I might want to face, I

623
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 4: think they might have been up I upgraded the Colts

624
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 4: a lot. The problem is it requires me to beout

625
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 4: the Titans, which I'll probably do anyway, so great.

626
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 1: I wish they were playing anyone but the Titans. I

627
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 1: would be in on the other team this week. I

628
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: just hear it. I can't get it.

629
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 4: Here's where like the Colts, I think they've I make

630
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: that two and a half, it's three and a half,

631
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 4: which means I probably have to take it. But I'll

632
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 4: just give you a crazy stat which illustrates, like, hey,

633
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 4: you don't want to overreact to small sample sizes and

634
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 4: what you just saw too much, so in weeks two

635
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 4: through five, so early in the season, when you might

636
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 4: end up overreacting to to a team winning as an underdog,

637
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 4: so a home underdog that one outright, which was the

638
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 4: Colts last week. That then when that goat then goes

639
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 4: on the road and is a favorite since two thousand

640
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 4: and three. Those teams are seventeen thirty nine and one

641
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 4: against the spread thirty percent, failing to cover by about

642
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 4: six points per game when they're fair by more than

643
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 4: a field goal six and sixteen against the spread when

644
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 4: that team that they're playing has a losing record eleven

645
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 4: twenty nine and one against the spread twenty seven and

646
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 4: a half percent. I will say on that game, So

647
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 4: it will be the Colts for me. The Titans last week.

648
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 4: I mean, the Titans were right there with the Ms

649
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter. What ended up happening, what ended

650
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 4: up burning them. There was a fumble like it was

651
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 4: like a three point game in the fourth quarter, and

652
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 4: then cam Wood got stripsacked and then the game was

653
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 4: over at his own twenty. But they didn't have sweat

654
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 4: in the interior defensive line, and that ended up being

655
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 4: huge because they were doubling Simmons and he wore down

656
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 4: and he had nothing left in the fourth quarter, and

657
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,959
Speaker 4: they didn't have Latham. His backup was horrendous. And then

658
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 4: they lost Zeitler, one of the better guards in the country.

659
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 4: He went out and then their offensive line fell apart.

660
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 4: So I need to see that. They need to get

661
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 4: Zeitler and laith them back, and then they need Sweat

662
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 4: on the defensive line because then you just double Simmons.

663
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 4: If you have sweat and Simmons, you can't double one

664
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 4: or the other, and then they're in tier. Defense of

665
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 4: line becomes scary. So it might be the Titans for me,

666
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 4: like that just home dog won't win, go on the

667
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 4: road in a divisional game now favored by over a field goal.

668
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 4: I think it's a little too much, So that would

669
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 4: be the one for me.

670
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 2: MAYA first thought was to look at it's crazy that

671
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 2: you're asking me this question. As I scroll through the schedule,

672
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, the Bucks are playing the Jets, the

673
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 2: Colts are playing the tight Ends, the forty nine ers

674
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 2: are playing the Cardinals, because those would have been my

675
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 2: first kind of thoughts of places to look, especially because.

676
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 3: The forty nine ers are playing Mac Jones. But he

677
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 3: bawled out last week.

678
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 2: I think we should probably stop talking shit about him

679
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 2: because it worked. But like I just I don't think

680
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 2: any of these teams this week or in a place

681
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 2: where I want to fade them. But it wouldn't be

682
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 2: the Colds for me. The spread's not big enough for

683
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers.

684
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 3: Is Biger hurt? Do we think?

685
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 2: Because it might be the bucks for me if he

686
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 2: actually is just one of these guys where if he

687
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 2: gets injured and people are talking shit to him, then

688
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 2: he comes up and performs like nothing we've ever seen,

689
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: which I do think might be the case, but it

690
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: might be the I think that the best maybe value

691
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 2: on the.

692
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 3: Board, if that's what you're looking for, is got to

693
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 3: be the box.

694
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Jets are Jets.

695
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: Why you start Tyrod Taylor too? That's another quarterback injury

696
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 1: we didn't miss.

697
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, but that is that much of Is that a

698
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 4: drop off from Fields? I don't like we saw like

699
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 4: we kind of know Fields is bad. I bought him.

700
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 1: I think Tyrod Taylor is justin fields, but with he

701
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 1: doesn't he's just not as successful a runner at least

702
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: justin fields.

703
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 4: Has that in his fields, will make mistakes like Taylor

704
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 4: never makes mistakes. So that's a good thing that you

705
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 4: want with an underdog like not to win the game,

706
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 4: but they're like stay in it and cover seven with

707
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 4: a low total like Tyre Taylor was like top five

708
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 4: all time among qualified quarterbacks and the interception rate, so

709
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 4: he's not gonna make mistakes. He can run the offense.

710
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean I faded the Bucks the first

711
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 4: two weeks. I probably would again, but.

712
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:00,719
Speaker 1: They won Week one.

713
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 4: They should have lost week too. They usially lost it.

714
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 4: They could easily be going to and this would be

715
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 4: a much different discussion. And you have to keep in

716
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 4: mind they're banged up, so their receivers are still all

717
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 4: banged up. And you got to saus Gardner too for

718
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 4: Mike Evans. Their offensive line is a mess. So it

719
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 4: might be the what's that?

720
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 3: I think it might be the Bucks.

721
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 4: They lost their rights, they lost get a key, they

722
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:31,879
Speaker 4: already were without worfs, So yeah, the Bucks don't seem

723
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 4: like a team that is as of right now, is

724
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,959
Speaker 4: built to really win by margin. They're kind of eking

725
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 4: out these games and they're getting a lot of breaks,

726
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 4: like they got another drop pick yesterday, a fumble that

727
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 4: didn't get recovered. Although they're special teams were they were

728
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 4: a bit unlucky, but the refs helped them out a

729
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 4: bunch early. So yeah, the Jets, that line is probably

730
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 4: gonna go up when Tyrod Taylor, Yeah, probably did.

731
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 3: It's a touchdown, right, now.

732
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 4: Seven yeah and a half, which I wouldn't like, but

733
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 4: it's even seven and a half.

734
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 3: I think I get there.

735
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: The juice on the game is telling a story that

736
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 1: early money's coming in on Tampa. The I bought it

737
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:14,919
Speaker 1: at minus one oh five on Sunday after the Justin

738
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 1: Fields injury. It's now sitting at minus one fifteen in

739
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 1: most places. So it's probably going to get to seven

740
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 1: and a half, especially with the Taylor news and yeah, man,

741
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: at that point, especially if it kicks any higher. Tyrod

742
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,240
Speaker 1: Taylor is in my opinion, a downgrade from Justin Fields,

743
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 1: even though Fields had a one point one quarterback rating

744
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 1: last week. But it's not that drastic. In terms of

745
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 1: the luck rankings, those are out there Action Network dot Com.

746
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 1: Keep updated with that. After Week one, the Tampa Bay

747
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 1: Buccaneers were number one. I imagine that the latest luck

748
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 1: ranking is going to have them right towards the top

749
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:48,479
Speaker 1: of the list as well, So keep that in mind.

750
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: Yeah exactly. As far as the seven teams yet to

751
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 1: cover a spread Pittsburgh, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Kansas City, Miami,

752
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,760
Speaker 1: and New Orleans, and maybe one of those teams pops

753
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 1: up as we play our flag it is time to

754
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: go around the horn here one game that you are

755
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: pot committed on. Here on Tuesday will lay out our

756
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 1: official picks. We'll do our three Musketeers, all for one,

757
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 1: one for all, and all for one Farlay on Thursday.

758
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 1: But right now, one pick that's already in the back pocket, Kendra,

759
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 1: what you got.

760
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 3: I already put it down.

761
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 2: My entire existence this year is just going to be

762
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 2: fading the Patriots. This is going to be three weeks

763
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 2: in a row.

764
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:29,720
Speaker 3: I'm one in one, but I'm going.

765
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 2: To fade the Patriots this week against the Steelers, Mike

766
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 2: tom And I believe is five hundred in his career

767
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: against the Patriots obviously did not do so hot against

768
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick.

769
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 3: I want to say he was.

770
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: Three and eight against Bill Belichick. Evan, please feel free

771
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 2: to check that. I believe that that is what I

772
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 2: wrote down in my notes, which I accidentally closed. But

773
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 2: I had just once again coaching thing. Their defense is

774
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 2: a lot better, Drake May is not impressing me. The

775
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 2: Patriots defense and special teams looked like crap this week.

776
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 2: I think that they're going to have a lot of energy,

777
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 2: a lot of hype, but you could just be the Dolphins.

778
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 2: I think that they need a crash course back to reality,

779
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 2: and that's going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

780
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 3: I get that they didn't look like a world beater.

781
00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 2: I didn't expect them to this season, but they're a

782
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 2: much better team on paper and on the field. I

783
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 2: don't see how people are on the Patriots this week.

784
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:17,280
Speaker 4: Sound sounds like Kendrick's going to try to fade the

785
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 4: Patriots every single week. We'll see what she brings on Thursday.

786
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 4: Do you have any update on Gonzales?

787
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 2: So that was the thing that I was thinking about

788
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 2: last week, is so I think I told you guys

789
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 2: that on his Instagram story he was posting like a

790
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,919
Speaker 2: bunch of cryptic stuff that sounded like he was going

791
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 2: to be back and going to be ready to play,

792
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 2: and then it came out later in the week. I

793
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 2: want to say, like Thursday Friday, that there was really

794
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 2: not a chance that he was going to play. So

795
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 2: I for me, it feels almost like they're holding him

796
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 2: out even though there is always has been that question

797
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 2: around his toughness as a player.

798
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 3: We talked about on Sunday that that's potentially.

799
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:51,759
Speaker 2: Why he fell in the draft. I think that he

800
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 2: has to be back this week. You cannot nurse a

801
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 2: hamstring for two months. I'm sorry, you just you cannot

802
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 2: do that, especially when your team needs you. They dk

803
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 2: metcalfet Friarmooth like they've got weapons on this team. They

804
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 2: need Gonzalez back otherwise there's not even a ship shot

805
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:07,760
Speaker 2: in hell that this is gonna happen.

806
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:11,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, two defenses that are struggle. I mean, the Steelers

807
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 4: defense looks horrendous, and their special teams looks bad too,

808
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 4: I mean Aleb Johnson. But the Steers are a bunch

809
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 4: of defensive injuries also that are are worth monitoring very

810
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 4: every I don't know what means, but.

811
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 1: So defense is so bad as it is. I'm on

812
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 1: the Patriots this week.

813
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 2: Can't go with you, I got now, but I'll go

814
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 2: got to break the tie, Stucky, you gotta do it.

815
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 3: Pick a side.

816
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 1: I will on.

817
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,359
Speaker 4: Thursday, I gotta. I gotta look into some injuries some more,

818
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 4: but I'll.

819
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:45,760
Speaker 1: We don't break ties on Tuesdays.

820
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 4: I'm gonna come up with some head to heads like bets.

821
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 4: So like yet someone has to pay it off. What

822
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 4: you have to do, but I'm gonna. I'm I'm still

823
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 4: brainstorming on that to make make it a little fun.

824
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 4: But I'll play my flag on the Rams plus three

825
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 4: and a half. The Eagles right now can't beat anybody

826
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 4: by margin like they are now. Granted, part of this

827
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 4: is because the tush play. I mean they're twelve percent

828
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 4: of their plays were the tush push. Last week. They're

829
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,879
Speaker 4: averaging four point three yards per play. And they played

830
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 4: the Cowboys defense, which gave up seven hundred points to

831
00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 4: the Giants and who couldn't score against Washington. And then

832
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 4: they played the Chiefs defense, who got shredded by the

833
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,720
Speaker 4: Chargers but had issues on the back end. They couldn't

834
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 4: take their play. Calll is so bad. If Goddard's out again,

835
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 4: like it's it's a mess. They can't throw it. How

836
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 4: is his Eagles team getting margin to anyone? It's like

837
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 4: they're worse than last year. The Rams almost beat them

838
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 4: in Philly in the playoffs. It was a dead even

839
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 4: game statistically, and the Rams had two turnovers and didn't

840
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,720
Speaker 4: convert on two four downs. Rams are playing really well.

841
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 4: They've obviously had this game circled. McVeigh does really well

842
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 4: on these East Coast trips. He is and by way

843
00:39:58,080 --> 00:39:59,800
Speaker 4: phase eighteen eleven and two against the spread of the

844
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 4: dog of three plus fourteen to seven and one against

845
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,439
Speaker 4: the spread in the Eastern time zone, covering by five

846
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 4: points per game, so it's covering two out of three

847
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 4: sixty seven percent. I think the reps gonna be right

848
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 4: there that this Eagles team just can't get margin than anyone.

849
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 4: Their defense is in as good, play calling is so bad,

850
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 4: and there's I don't know if Brown is hurt, if

851
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 4: they're stuck in the mud, but I'm sure they'll end

852
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 4: up winning by like three because I mean, think about

853
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 4: last week. They easily lose that game. If Kelsey catches

854
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 4: a free touchdown, that play was worth negative seven and

855
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 4: a half points free touchdown into an interception. They also

856
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 4: were gifted three when the Chiefs couldn't get one yard

857
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 4: they made a fifty yard They easily could have lost

858
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 4: that game. We've had a different conversation about how bad

859
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 4: their offense is, but because they're two to zero, no

860
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:44,839
Speaker 4: one's really talking about it. I think anything over three

861
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 4: you have to take here. This Eagles offense is a

862
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 4: mess right now. They just there. They have two completions

863
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 4: over twelve yards all year, and they play and on

864
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:55,479
Speaker 4: one of the gains of the Cowboys. I think Russ

865
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 4: had like seventeen in one game against the Cowboys defense.

866
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm taking the Rams plus three and a half.

867
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,479
Speaker 4: I think that game probably goes down to the wire

868
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:09,880
Speaker 4: and a little. I just have a sneaky suspicion. McVeigh

869
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 4: inquired with the league office today about the tush bush.

870
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 4: He was one that was against it. He was like,

871
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 4: you used to be on the rules committee. I have

872
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:25,399
Speaker 4: a sneaky fision. You're gonna see fall starts or off

873
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 4: sides on the offense called this week when they do

874
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 4: it all this, yeah about it and how they I

875
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 4: mean the Eagles went off sides on them, like they

876
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,359
Speaker 4: fall started like on three of them last week. Oh yeah,

877
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,720
Speaker 4: so and they lined up illegal. You're gonna get flags

878
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 4: on that play. And that is so big, Like you

879
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 4: just get a flag on one of those plays, Like

880
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:43,319
Speaker 4: if you just take the Eagles from fourth and one

881
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 4: or to fourth and six, well that's a punt or

882
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:47,960
Speaker 4: third to one to third and six, well then they

883
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 4: actually have to throw it downfield. That is huge for

884
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 4: the entire game. So if there's like a couple of

885
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 4: flags on those plays, just watch out for that. I

886
00:41:58,000 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 4: like the Rams plus three and a half.

887
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: H I like that pick Bears minus one is my

888
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 1: plant the flag pick off a blowout loss, taking on

889
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 1: a Cowboys team off of five quarters of football. They

890
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 1: almost played until the bone on that one. Chicago at

891
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: home the last five seasons have been nearly three points

892
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,799
Speaker 1: better in terms of their home and road splits. That

893
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 1: ranks top ten in the NFL over that time. Early

894
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: action also tilting in that direction. I already grabbed the

895
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,760
Speaker 1: minus one zho five on them minus one. We're seeing

896
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,919
Speaker 1: that line tick up to minus one and a half

897
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,879
Speaker 1: in some places. But I like Chicago in the bounce back.

898
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,839
Speaker 1: And now for the main event. No betting week can

899
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:38,880
Speaker 1: be complete without it, or can you even start without it?

900
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:44,280
Speaker 1: The primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome to the show.

901
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 1: What are we looking at this week as far as

902
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 1: our primer stats that we need to know before we

903
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:53,399
Speaker 1: place these bets.

904
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 5: What's going on everybody? I mean, it's just impossible not

905
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 5: to talk about favorites at the moment. I too this

906
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 5: out there. They don't lose anymore, It's insane. I just

907
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 5: these numbers feel fake. It's video game like, but right now,

908
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:09,439
Speaker 5: closing favorites four points or more twelve and oh straight

909
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 5: up this year, there's sixty four and seven ninety percent

910
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:16,719
Speaker 5: Since Week thirteen of last season in that same league

911
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 5: I love in that listen, in that same span, favorites

912
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:24,399
Speaker 5: is six plus points, forty seven and four. Again, all

913
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 5: fields just very dumb at this point, and even last night,

914
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 5: so Chargers went on the road. Road favorites ninety and

915
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 5: thirty two just since the start of last season, So

916
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 5: even road chalk, I think the home field advantage thing stuck.

917
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,319
Speaker 5: You were talking about it with Minnesota kind of having

918
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 5: one of the best in the NFL. Aside from that, like,

919
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:46,439
Speaker 5: I just think road favorites are becoming more valuable and

920
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 5: probably just price just the same other things. I'll be

921
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 5: looking at this week. Backup quarterback, So I have a

922
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 5: database myself with every backup quarterback over the last like

923
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 5: fifteen years, so I want to dig a little bit

924
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 5: into this many backups as early in the season. I'll

925
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:03,439
Speaker 5: say this in terms of our data. So you guys

926
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 5: are talking about Pittsburgh and the Patriots right now. The

927
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 5: Patriots are the biggest public side on Tuesday morning, ninety

928
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 5: one percent of tickets, so nobody wants to bet the

929
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 5: zero to two ats Steelers getting nine percent right now

930
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 5: as a road favorite, which also isn't great for Tomlin.

931
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 5: I'll say this as well. Teams with sixty percent of

932
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 5: tickets are more two and thirteen against the spread according

933
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,280
Speaker 5: to our data this year. So the real chalk getting

934
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 5: absolutely hammered. I mean, there's a lot of stuff, but

935
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 5: there's a great Monday night football game. And I'll leave

936
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 5: you with this. John Harbaugh twenty three and four straight

937
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:46,360
Speaker 5: up at home and night games with the Ravens. Stuck

938
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:49,240
Speaker 5: knows this even early in the season, nineteen and one

939
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 5: in that spot. So pretty tough one for Detroit. I

940
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 5: think the spread five and a half six for a reason,

941
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 5: and Detroit off of a big win, that's going to

942
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 5: be a lot of tickets on that game.

943
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I will Ravens one thing you want to watch.

944
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 4: Likely does he come back, But more importantly, it looks

945
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:10,360
Speaker 4: like Van Neyt's probably gonna be out. Humphrey is key.

946
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 4: You need him in the slot, especially against Detroit. Jaya

947
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 4: Alexander is he gonna be back, But the Humphrey's out,

948
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 4: like in their corner. Depth is not great right now,

949
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 4: but he's so key to that defense. If he's in,

950
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,000
Speaker 4: I think Ravens went by seven plus. If he's not,

951
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,359
Speaker 4: gets a little diceier, But the Ravens are gonna score.

952
00:45:28,360 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 4: Probably I will against Detroit. I will also go back

953
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 4: to your Bears point one. I almost always play this

954
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 4: team after a team after losing by thirty points the

955
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 4: week before. If you go back to two thousand and three,

956
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 4: after a loss of thirty plus, teams are one forty

957
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 4: nine ten against the spread, outs over fifty five percent

958
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 4: when they're an underdog or favored by less than three

959
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:53,800
Speaker 4: sixty percent against the spread. And Johnson owns eebra flus.

960
00:45:54,160 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 4: My only concern is the Bears. The Bears defensive injuries,

961
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 4: Like it looks like Jalen Johnson's going to miss the year,

962
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 4: which is huge. They're all pro corner Kyler Gordon. I

963
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 4: think he's probably gonna be out again throughout the really

964
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 4: good corner. So their corner room is horrendous right now.

965
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 4: So like, how are they stopping Dak and those receivers.

966
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 4: I don't know. I really don't know, because it's not

967
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 4: like they can get a ton of pressure. So I'm

968
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 4: trying to decide if I want to bet the Bears

969
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 4: or if I just want to bet the Bears team

970
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 4: total over like twenty five or whatever it's going to be.

971
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 4: But I don't mind your Bears. Look there after an

972
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 4: embarrassing loss and the Cowboys who should have lost to

973
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 4: the Giants. The other thing that worries me, though, is

974
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 4: the kick. We have the new kickoff rules. This is

975
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 4: the biggest kicker mismatch in NFL history. You got a

976
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 4: kicker who could make it from seventy and then you

977
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:47,959
Speaker 4: got Santo's who is his like range? Is his max

978
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 4: range is like forty two?

979
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,360
Speaker 1: So need the Windy City to show up in this one?

980
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,839
Speaker 2: Well, put some respect on Cam Little, the only man

981
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:57,240
Speaker 2: to kick a seventy yarder.

982
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 4: Well it's not not officially, sorry, oh my god, not officially.

983
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 1: Evan, before we cut you loose. By the time we

984
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 1: get most people listen to the Thursday episode, they will

985
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:12,360
Speaker 1: over either already made up their minds for Bills Dolphins,

986
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:15,239
Speaker 1: or we'll be past that point. Is there anything for

987
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 1: Thursday Night, whether it's big double digit favorites on Thursdays,

988
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 1: the Bills at home, the Bills at home against Miami,

989
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:25,319
Speaker 1: Is there anything you've looked at as far as that

990
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 1: matchup goes.

991
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 5: I mean, I guess if you want to take Miami

992
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 5: the one end, so you can look at as the

993
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 5: fact that Dogs are six and two in night games

994
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 5: this year, so it's a decent start. But anything you

995
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 5: look at when it comes to two against Buffalo is

996
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 5: just gross. It's let's see Miami two and thirteen straight

997
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:46,360
Speaker 5: up versus Josh Allen win eight straight up in Buffalo

998
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:49,360
Speaker 5: one and eight with TUA, and then the two a

999
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 5: stat that really scares me and probably scares most people.

1000
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,720
Speaker 5: Two and thirteen straight up four ten and one against

1001
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 5: the spread away from home versus winning teams in his career,

1002
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 5: and I believe he's lost ten great in that spot.

1003
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 5: So just a real, real, real bad one.

1004
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:05,879
Speaker 4: But the only thing I'll add though, is that it's

1005
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,879
Speaker 4: the spread is twelve and a half correct, Like this

1006
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 4: is different than now, is worse than.

1007
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,320
Speaker 5: You second second biggest of his career he was plus

1008
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 5: fifteen against Buffalo in twenty one, so yeah, this number

1009
00:48:18,160 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 5: is massive, So.

1010
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:22,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is it's a huge number. Like if you

1011
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 4: look back, I think the biggest like McDermott is zero

1012
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 4: to three against the spread against the Dolphins when he's

1013
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:31,279
Speaker 4: favored by more than a field goal, and he's never

1014
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:34,319
Speaker 4: been favored by more than seven. Last year in this

1015
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 4: game in Buffalo in November, and Miami was not good.

1016
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 4: The Bills closed six and a half, they won by three,

1017
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:44,839
Speaker 4: and they probably should have lost. So this is a

1018
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 4: big adjustment. But Miami's obviously way worse. You got to

1019
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 4: decide how much worse. I mean, I make this like

1020
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 4: ten point seven. The other thing is, I mean they're

1021
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:55,920
Speaker 4: offensive line semester's injuries. Their secondary is the mess. The

1022
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:58,400
Speaker 4: Bills have injuries too that are worth watching, like Toron Johnson,

1023
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 4: Milano Oliver like those are three of their best defenders,

1024
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 4: so it's worth watching there. But and I will say

1025
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 4: I having divisional double digit divisional dogs are usually a

1026
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 4: good bet I think over the last forty years or

1027
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 4: like fifty five percent. But you gotta bet the Dolphins

1028
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 4: have a ton of injuries too. But you gotta bet this.

1029
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 4: This Miami team, I mean, this Miami team is it.

1030
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,479
Speaker 4: Did you see the operation in the last minute against

1031
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 4: the Patriots. They went first and ten at the forty

1032
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 4: to go to win the game, They got a delay

1033
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,759
Speaker 4: of game and then they got a. I think they

1034
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:37,800
Speaker 4: got another delay of game and then.

1035
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 3: There's gonna twist a knife on me right now.

1036
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 4: Didn't they have two delay of games in a row.

1037
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 3: It was, you're just what you can you know what?

1038
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 3: You want to pull the knife out of my back

1039
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 3: right now? Please, thank you.

1040
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 4: It was and then they had to rush to play

1041
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 4: the next play. Some you gotta go back and watch it.

1042
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:53,399
Speaker 5: It was.

1043
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:57,319
Speaker 3: It was I'm gonna do after this. I'm gonna go

1044
00:49:57,400 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 3: rewatch the Patriots.

1045
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:00,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and then and then it takes the sack

1046
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 1: and boom boom goes to the dynamite and the like.

1047
00:50:04,920 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 4: Think about this. It's first and ten and at the

1048
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 4: New England forty four the minute fifteen, and they completed

1049
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 4: for eighteen yards first and ten at the twenty six

1050
00:50:14,680 --> 00:50:18,360
Speaker 4: minute nine. You're in perfect position to win this game, sorry, Kendrew.

1051
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:25,360
Speaker 4: Delay of game, uh, first and fifteen. Delayed game again,

1052
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 4: first and twenty and then they they have to they

1053
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 4: rush the snap with like one second. Everyone was confused

1054
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:34,760
Speaker 4: three plays in a row, and then you get sacked

1055
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 4: and then sacked.

1056
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:38,680
Speaker 3: And I was sitting at the bar trying to drink

1057
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 3: my pickled beer.

1058
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 2: In peace with a bunch of Patriots fans feeling really good,

1059
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:46,359
Speaker 2: and then you know.

1060
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:48,480
Speaker 4: The thing, keep paying eventually get one.

1061
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 2: I got, I got the Raiders. What I faded the Patriots?

1062
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 2: Week one one with the Raiders plus one thirty one?

1063
00:50:57,200 --> 00:50:58,839
Speaker 4: Oh gotcha? Okay, last week one?

1064
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly last week. I should have won last week

1065
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:05,919
Speaker 3: And now you know what, I'm rocking with my Ayahuasca

1066
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 3: King and Mike Tomlin.

1067
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:10,360
Speaker 4: Are you committed to doing this all eighteen already?

1068
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 3: I already did it. It's already tracked in the action app.

1069
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 3: We're good to go.

1070
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:15,879
Speaker 4: No, I'm saying, are you committed to doing this every week?

1071
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 4: You're gonna fait the Patriots.

1072
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 2: Give me until week's live to make a decision. But

1073
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:24,840
Speaker 2: for the most part, they ruined my life in twenty seventeen,

1074
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 2: so probably.

1075
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 4: Oh you know what. Next week the Patriots host your Panthers.

1076
00:51:32,239 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 3: My sadcuts are back.

1077
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 4: I will say no Panthers, the injury news, Hunt and

1078
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,839
Speaker 4: Corbett they're starting too.

1079
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:42,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm already on the Panthers.

1080
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,800
Speaker 4: Not good. Yeah, that's gonna be your biggest bet of

1081
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:47,280
Speaker 4: the year. Panthers at Patriots.

1082
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 3: Yeah. I love the few words.

1083
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:53,920
Speaker 1: Evan, Thank you, you're a gentleman and a scholar, and

1084
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:56,640
Speaker 1: that'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our

1085
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Speaker 1: producers Matt Mitchell, the Icon and Gifford Gould on video.

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Speaker 1: The Favorites will return on Thursday right here on the

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Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page when we talk Week three bets

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Speaker 1: and we get our official parlay in there. Good luck

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Speaker 1: with all your bets. We'll see you next time right

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Speaker 1: here on the Favorites. Cash these tickets cheers.

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Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler