1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: Is Bloomberg surveillance. I don't want to be completely There 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:08,960 Speaker 1: are things the world should be worrying about, but it's 3 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:11,720 Speaker 1: just not as bad a world if some people are saying. 4 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 1: For what most families care about, it's not GDP growth 5 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: or the size of the economy as a whole, it's 6 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: how they're doing. Real capital investment is gray below average. 7 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: Why because businesspeople are very uncertain about the future. Bloomberg 8 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance, and 9 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 1: investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good Morning, Michael McKee along with 10 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,920 Speaker 1: Tom Keene. It is seven am on Wall Street, seven 11 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: am in Washington, d C. Where we find ourselves this 12 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: morning watching the whaling and gnashing of teeth among Republicans 13 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: the day after Super Tuesday, tom a big night for 14 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Ted Cruises. Chris Kliza of The Washington 15 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: Post says, the man the Party fears, and the man 16 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: and the Party loaves. I was transfixed by all the 17 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: different political coverage, including Bloomberg Politics last evening between about 18 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: seven thirty and really into the eleven o'clock hour. I 19 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: can honestly say, Mike, I've never seen it before. Beginning 20 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 1: for Hillary Clinton, as well. We'll talk a lot about 21 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 1: politics today. Al Hunt, Jared Bernstein, Libby Cantrill from Pimco, 22 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:21,479 Speaker 1: and Lonnie Chin from the Rubio campaign will be joining us. 23 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 1: As for the markets this morning, one step forward, one 24 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 1: step back, Not the primary campaign, it's the markets these days. Uh. 25 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: This morning, Asia and Europe are higher, the U, S 26 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 1: and UK lower, Shanghai finishing up four point three percent, 27 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: Tokyo four percent. That carried over into the European markets, 28 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 1: but the UK and US not so much. Right now. 29 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 1: The stock six D is up by a point a 30 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,639 Speaker 1: quarter of a percentage point and the decks by thirty 31 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 1: eight points four tents, but the FUNZ is down twenty 32 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: points right now, three tents of eight percent. And in 33 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: the US there hasn't made much movement in futures all morning. 34 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: S ANDP features down about five points, about two tents 35 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: of a percent. Dal eveni's off by two tents as well. 36 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: It's thirty five points on that index today and the 37 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: NASAC on minies five points lower, just over a tenth 38 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 1: of a percent. Now. The bond market is lower today. 39 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 1: Strong economic date well, strong GIR economic data yesterday and 40 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 1: a big day in the economy ahead with the ADP 41 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,959 Speaker 1: numbers coming out at eight fifteen Wall Street Time ten. 42 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 1: Your note yield one point eight four percent, the five 43 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,160 Speaker 1: year one point three three and the two year is 44 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 1: up to eighty five basis points this morning. So that 45 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 1: is something we're gonna in a job's Day on Friday. 46 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: We forgot today, we're Fridlasses. We're starting the long slide 47 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,760 Speaker 1: into job's Day in the Super Friday, Super Super Friday. 48 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: We'll see how many delegates were hired in the US 49 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: this past Monday. Absolutely Bloomberg Surveillance from Washington this morning. 50 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:51,239 Speaker 1: Good morning to f M in Washington. In Baltimore. Uh, 51 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 1: we're brought to buy. Investco. Factor based strategies can help 52 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: investors focus on a high quality, low volatility and more. 53 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 1: Learn more and investco dot com slash high conviction. Brian 54 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: Miowski is the chief investment strategist at BMO Capital and 55 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: he is Joinius from our New York studios. He he 56 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: went there when he heard we were coming here. You 57 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 1: were telling Tom earlier, Brian, this is the largest stealth 58 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: bull market of our collective careers. But is it still that? 59 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: How would you characterize where we are after the big 60 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: sell off and clawing back somewhat. That would exactly call 61 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: it clawing back. And we think that clearly it was 62 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 1: a tough January. You know, January itself kind of felt 63 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: like a whole year, and most of my clients around 64 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 1: the world are pretty tired and pretty stressed out after 65 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 1: what happened in January. So we had a nice little 66 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 1: snap back. And now everybody seems to be be believing, 67 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: uh that emerging markets are coming back and commandities they're 68 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:48,839 Speaker 1: coming back, and so I think that's why you've seen 69 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 1: a bit of rerating of equities from from the stealth commentary. 70 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 1: You know, people still don't believe it because we're still 71 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: kind of in the bunker that we're playing the rope 72 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: adope strategy with respect equities were just waiting to take 73 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: a punch from a longer term perspective, and until we 74 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: get some clarity with respect to GDP growth and earnings 75 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: growth and and from a from a at least near 76 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: term perspective's gonna happen politically here in America. It's gonna 77 00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: take some time to build credibility again for this whole 78 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: notion of investing. So two thousand sixteen is your reset 79 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: year within our twenty year Bowl market thesis, which we've 80 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: been talking about, uh since late two thousand and eight 81 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: to early two thousand nine, and uh, you know, we 82 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 1: think equities from a longer term perspective are still the 83 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: place to be, but we're gonna see some volatility heading 84 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: into the summer and into the fall. So one step 85 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 1: forward and yeah, I think so. But the other thing, 86 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: you've got to be careful with some of that, because 87 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: it's pretty consensus now that you read all the blogs 88 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: and the Twitter machines and things like that in terms 89 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: of this is the biggest biggest sell the rally market 90 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: that we've seen. Remember, the majority of institutional investors have 91 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 1: not been around, uh post are pre pre two thousand, 92 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: so they really don't know what a quote unquote real 93 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: cycle is. A real cycle is learning to go up. Uh, 94 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 1: the economy goes up, interest rates go up. Uh, And 95 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: so we haven't seen that in a while. Nobody believes 96 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:07,559 Speaker 1: that stocks can go up if the dollar and interest 97 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: rates go up, because again, we haven't seen any investors 98 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: at around in the eighties and nineties, So we think 99 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 1: we're involved with the investor base that lack perspective. Unfortunately, 100 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,359 Speaker 1: Brian there's proof that Michael McKee and I went to 101 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: the Washington Capitals Pittsburgh Penguins game last night, maybe the 102 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 1: most extraordinary set of talent I've ever seen on the ice. 103 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:33,600 Speaker 1: How do you construct a portfolio around your strategy like 104 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: the Washington Capitals. How do you do that? You find 105 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: good athletes, you find good stocks, and you stick with them. 106 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 1: And that's really the era of active investing. And I 107 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: know a lot of my competitors and Patriots have talked 108 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 1: about this, but let me try to explain it. If 109 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: your portfolio manager, you want to own less names, you 110 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: want to own thirty five to forty names, and a 111 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,720 Speaker 1: concentrated portfolio, you want to be overweight at four percent 112 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 1: in a core position at two and a half three percent, 113 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 1: and you want to initiate position that one percent with 114 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 1: respect to stocks, and as the market rallies, you peel 115 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: off a little bit and and the market rolls over, 116 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: you want to buy a little bit more. And that's 117 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 1: what that's what you should be doing in stocks like 118 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 1: Apple and Comcast and twenty century Fox and and Costco 119 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 1: and these names that continue to be we believed for 120 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: positions from a longer term perspective, and Mike, I thought 121 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: that was brilliant what you just heard from Mr Belski. 122 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: I would also suggest, Mike that within the mathiness of it, 123 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 1: to be diversified across sectors. Within that portfolio discussion is 124 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 1: far more important than worrying about individual stock diversification. It's 125 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 1: critical what groups you're in as you construct thirty five 126 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: to forty stocks. So you don't worry about having Alexander Ovechkin. 127 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: You've gotta have three or four good life. He's no 128 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 1: good without those guys that t j Oshi Good morning St. 129 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: Louis Sirius XM Channel one nineteen. Without t j Oshie, 130 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: your portfolio doesn't go up. If we're we're not going 131 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: to mention the Canadians, Brian when we won't make you 132 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: feel bad this morning. Instead, let's ask about the political world. 133 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: When does Wall Street take account of the outlook for 134 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: the election? On surveillance this morning, we were outlining some 135 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 1: of the candidate's economic plans. You've got Hillary Clinton, who 136 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: wants to take on the financial sector, UH, extend regulation. There, 137 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: You've got Donald Trump, who wants to spend more money 138 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: than the US has according to the calculations of his portfolio. 139 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: What do people take this seriously? We'll tell me something 140 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: I already don't know, right. I mean, the the issue 141 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 1: with respect to financials has been a bulmarket and compliance 142 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: in two thousand one. Many people think that this whole 143 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: compliance situation and regulation really started in two thousand and eight, 144 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 1: two thousand nine, post the crisis. Now that's been going 145 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: on since since two thousand, two thousand one, post the 146 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: tech bubble, and so picking on financials I think is 147 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: a is a headline type of thing because people still 148 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,679 Speaker 1: have a general distress for financials. We've been on record 149 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 1: by saying we think it's a generational opportunity to buy 150 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 1: big financials here in America and Canada because we think 151 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: they're exquisitely well run, that under God's massive structural change 152 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: since two thousand seven two eight, and we think they're 153 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: appropriately positioned to take on more of a wealth management 154 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: type feel and a big asset type bundling feel, especially 155 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: considering that the economy isn't proving, interest rates are going 156 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: to go up and as we start to see yields 157 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: put pressure with respective performance in principle on bond, something 158 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: that that Tom talks about a lot we are going 159 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: to finally see this great rotation that nobody's talking about again, 160 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 1: because it clearly hasn't happened. I must do a quick 161 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 1: shameless plug here Tom for John Michael Thwaite and his 162 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: marvelous interview with Jamie Diamond, which is out on the 163 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 1: Bluebird today. You can you can read that at length 164 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: Jamie Diamond at length on his business model and his 165 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: business plans. Yeah, and on the strategy that Mr Diamond 166 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: has forward is he tries to set up I guess 167 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 1: reset up Fortress Diamond from where it was seven or 168 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: eight years ago. Brian Belski, we hear from so many 169 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: guests that they're wedded to quote unquote blue chips. Do 170 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: you find the same or you wedded to mid caps 171 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 1: and small caps? I would tell you this time that 172 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: if you're looking at small, medium large companies, we would 173 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: rank large number one, small number two, in mid number 174 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: three principally because evaluation perspective, UH in the earning growth 175 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: side of the mid cap world is is a bit 176 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: worriesome large cap stocks. We think again on the for 177 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: the record, we think we're heading into an eighties and 178 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: nineties type environment where it's a Warren Buffet slash Peter 179 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: Lynch type world where you buy good companies and you 180 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: stick with them, and again, per my prior comment, you 181 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 1: buy more on pullbacks and you trem on on on rallies. 182 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 1: But there I believe that this is going to be 183 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: in an interesting period for small cap managers, as small 184 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: caps in general underperformed. But this is where you, as 185 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: a small cap manager, is actually easier for you to 186 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: outperform if the if the asset class is declining. Ryan 187 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: Gimbowski thank you so much with Demo capital Markets on 188 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:57,559 Speaker 1: the equity markets and his important research note of an 189 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: unloved uh bull market. It was not a I love 190 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 1: politics last night, Mike. I've never seen anything like it. 191 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 1: What was your observation as you and I gazed at 192 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: eleven o'clock? What we saw? Well, it's uh. It seems 193 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: to be moving more quickly than party professionals thought. Bernie 194 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:15,959 Speaker 1: Sanders not putting up as much of a fight when 195 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 1: you start counting delegates. Hillary Clinton with a big commanding lead, 196 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,559 Speaker 1: and Donald Trump right now at least has the momentum. 197 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 1: It's gonna be hard for him to be stopped, but 198 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: he still can be The nuances here between Mr Cruise 199 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: and Mr Rubio and moving out to Michigan in one week, 200 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,199 Speaker 1: and a number of guests this morning, making clear Florida 201 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 1: is more important. But it'll be interesting to see where 202 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: we are and you get to the winner take all 203 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: primaries like Florida, and that will really matter. Yeah, Michael McKain, 204 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:46,600 Speaker 1: Tom Kenyon, Washington. Futures at negative six down futures negative 205 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 1: forty three, the yield one eight four. Now let's bring 206 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 1: in Michael Barr. He has the latest world of national headlines. 207 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: Michael by time, thank you very much. Republican Donald Trump 208 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: and Democrat Hillary Clinton had big nights after Super Tuesday. 209 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: Trump and Clinton each one seven states. Ted Cruz and 210 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 1: Marco Ruby, you are not giving up in their fight 211 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 1: for the Republican presidential nomination. CRUs won his home state 212 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 1: of Texas, as well as Oklahoma and Alaska. Marco Ruby 213 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,839 Speaker 1: not his first victory in Minnesota. Democrat Bernie Sanders is 214 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 1: indicating that he is in it for the long haul. 215 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: Sanders picked up victories in his home state of Vermont, 216 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 1: as well as Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Colorado. Authorities say a 217 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 1: freight train with hazardous liquids has derailed in southwestern New York. 218 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: State Governor Andrew Cuomo says the train was traveling on 219 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: the Norfolk South Southern Line through Ripley when about fifteen 220 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 1: cars derailed last night. Three of the cars carrying at 221 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 1: least ethanol, are leaking. About forty five homes have been evacuated. 222 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: Global to the twenty four hours a day, powered by 223 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 1: our two hundred journalists and more than a hundred fifty 224 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: news bureaus from around the world. I'm Michael Barn, Mike Tom, 225 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 1: Michael Barr, Thank you so much. Coming up. E J. 226 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: Dione of the Washington Should post on the perspective of 227 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: super Wednesday. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance brought to 228 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: you by NYCB asked about their my community interest checking 229 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: with free NYCB online and mobile banking. Earn more, get more. 230 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 1: Visit NYCB family dot com for details. Global business news 231 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the 232 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: radio plus mobile lapp and on your radio. This is 233 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. This updates 234 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 1: Bronze You buy osener amper or an Entrepreneurs face challenges 235 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: like choosing a business structure or access to capital. They 236 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: call the accountants and advisors at osder Amper connect with 237 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: them osner Amper dot com. Slash tech sports authority filing 238 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 1: for bankruptcy after failing to exploit the fitness boom that's 239 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:52,559 Speaker 1: been a rare bright spot in retail. Future is lower 240 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 1: this morning with SNP eveny Future is down five points. 241 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 1: Dow EVENI futures down thirty eight nasdac Emuni futures down 242 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,199 Speaker 1: six and a half. That acts in Germany's up to 243 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 1: tens percent ten Your treasury down four thirty seconds, the 244 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: yield one point eight three percent. Nim x screwed oil 245 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,439 Speaker 1: down one pot nine percent or sixty six cents to 246 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 1: thirty three seventy four a barrel comex s called up 247 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: a tenth of upper cent or a dollar thirty to 248 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,440 Speaker 1: twelve thirty two twenty announced the euro another oh eight 249 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 1: fifty four. The end one fourteen point three seven. That's 250 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike Karen, thank you 251 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 1: so much. About four days ago, I said to my 252 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 1: wonderful team, and particularly Rachel Worstban, I said, get me 253 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: e J, get me e J, get me e J. 254 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 1: They thought I was talking about a hockey player up 255 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: in Minnesota. E J. Deone owns the Analysis of Politics 256 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: in Washington, his must read book for the right and 257 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 1: the left coming out. I love the title Why Why 258 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: the Right Went Wrong? Conservatism from Goldwater to the Tea 259 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 1: Party and beyond with the Brookings Institution University fellow professor 260 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: rather at Georgetown, and of course with the Washington Post. 261 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,599 Speaker 1: E J. Deon joins a sign this super Wednesday. E J. 262 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: Wonderful to speak to you for the half hour. Um, 263 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:08,439 Speaker 1: it's a long way from Portsmouth Abbey, through your path 264 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: with your Vatican coverage to the religion that American politics 265 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 1: is in. Now what is our American political religion as 266 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: we pick up the dust from last night? Well, first 267 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 1: of all, thanks for that wonderful introduction. And I think 268 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 1: the part of my past that I might most think 269 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 1: about are the months I spent covering the Civil War 270 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: in Beirut. I mean it is going in Lebanon. I 271 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 1: mean that is the kind of thing that's happening, uh 272 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 1: inside the Republican Party. I love, by the way, to 273 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 1: lead on New York Times story UH this Morning by 274 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 1: Jonathan Martin and Michael Barbero Democrats are falling in line, 275 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: Republicans are falling apart. Uh, it's really remarkable what's happening 276 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 1: to the Republican Party. And in a funny way, last 277 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: night sent to I think contradictory signals. On the one hand, Uh, 278 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 1: if you didn't take Trump seriously before last night, you 279 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: got to now with those victories in all but four 280 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: states last night. But there was another message that was striking, 281 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: which is he only broke in Alabama and Massachusetts. He 282 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: came close in Tennessee, UH, and Georgia. And so what 283 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 1: you're looking at is a Republican party in which Trump 284 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: has a clear plurality but can't hit the majority anywhere. 285 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 1: And I think that spells real chaos going forward. Now, 286 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: none of the alternatives, not Cruise, not Ruby, or not Casik, 287 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 1: has been strong enough to force the other candidates out UM. 288 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: And so now you have talk in the Republican Party 289 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: that the only way to stop Trump UM is almost 290 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 1: a favorite Sun strategy that goes back, you know, almost 291 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: a hundred years in our politics, or at least maybe 292 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: eighty years in our politics, where you're trying to use 293 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 1: Rubio to brock him in Florida. The way Cruz brocked 294 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: him in trum and Texas he has terday, uh and 295 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: Casak in Ohio and just try to keep him under 296 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: a majority. But boy, that spells problems if Trump emerges 297 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 1: with the most delegates and is denied the nomination, which 298 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 1: is the strategy of the well, where does it leave 299 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 1: the Republican Party? In your book, you trace what's you 300 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: called the decline of of the party. Where does it 301 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 1: leave them if he becomes the nominee? Do they put 302 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: themselves back together? Or is this, uh, something we haven't 303 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: seen since the eighteen fifties. I think they split in three. Um, 304 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 1: there's the Trump part of the party and some parts 305 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: some elected officials will go with Trump. And the hope 306 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: of people who are willing to support Trump in the 307 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 1: Republican Party is that his appeal to working class voters, 308 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: you know, with a strong economic angie trade nationalism, will 309 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 1: make them competitive in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. 310 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: Then you're going to have a lot of more moderate 311 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:08,719 Speaker 1: Republicans or moderate Conservatives, particularly elected officials in suburbs, are 312 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 1: gonna say we can't go with this. Then I'm going 313 00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 1: to form a third party, which you already have people 314 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,440 Speaker 1: like Christine Todd Whitman in UH, New Jersey saying that 315 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 1: they could vote for Hillary Clinton against Trump. And then 316 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 1: you're gonna have staunch conservatives and neo CON's on foreign 317 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 1: policy in particular, who are going to say, no, we 318 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: need a real conservative party on the ballot um and 319 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: and so they could actually cut into Trump's vote from 320 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: the right. I think that's the most likely outcome, you know. 321 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: And in my book, I argue that the first sentence 322 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: of my book is the history of contemporary American Conservatism 323 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:50,359 Speaker 1: is the story of disappointment in betrayal. Uh. And I 324 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: think the Trump vote comes from two sources. One is 325 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,159 Speaker 1: staunch conservatives to say I'm tired of the Republicans making 326 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 1: promise after promise and not keeping it. And the other 327 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 1: is from working class Republicans who have been voting for 328 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,879 Speaker 1: this party for decades. White working class Republicans, that should 329 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: be said, who've been voting Republican for decades and don't 330 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: have anything to show for it. And once again yesterday 331 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: Trump drove a class wedge right through the party. Well 332 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 1: that's where I wanted to go to, the class wedge. 333 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 1: Where does the establishment, which is the elite. Where do 334 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:26,679 Speaker 1: they meet to recalibrate and restructure. They're gonna go to 335 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,399 Speaker 1: the hay Adams Hotel or the Willard or you know, 336 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:31,920 Speaker 1: you know, you know the venues. Is there a place 337 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 1: where they meet or is it all done by email? Now, 338 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: you know, it's funny of the book, I talked about 339 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:42,239 Speaker 1: a meeting, a dinner in the Caucus room, which is 340 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 1: a popular watering hole in restaurant, the day the President 341 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:50,639 Speaker 1: Obama was inaugurated, where the House leadership decided, you know, 342 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:53,679 Speaker 1: we're gonna go all in on opposition to Obama. And 343 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 1: that was his first day in offense. And it was 344 00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:00,399 Speaker 1: a lot easier to night in opposition to Obama the 345 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 1: outside enemy. If you will, the Democrat, then it will 346 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:06,360 Speaker 1: be to pull this party together against Trump, because you've 347 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: already had kind of defections or partial defections in the 348 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 1: so well establishment saying maybe we could do business with Trump. Um, 349 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: And I think that you do have a congressional leadership 350 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: that's very afraid that Trump could in danger, certainly their 351 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: Senate majority and prisibly even their House uh majority. And 352 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 1: so they're also signaling each other from the outside. Book 353 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell and UH Paul Ryan have sort of suggested 354 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 1: you're almost ready to join an anti Trump operation. Well interesting, 355 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: e J don with us with the Washington Post of 356 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,119 Speaker 1: Brookings Institution coming up. I'm really looking forward to this 357 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 1: in support of FM in Washington. E J. Deone on 358 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 1: his Washington He's the author of the new book Why 359 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 1: the Right Went Wrong. Michael McKee and Tom keenan Washington 360 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 1: worldwide Burg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance has brought you by Flushing Bank. 361 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 1: Open a complete business checking account with fifteen thousand dollars 362 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,359 Speaker 1: or more and get a free sixteen gig WiFi tablet. 363 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: Visit Flushing bank dot com for details. Member f D 364 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 1: i C Equal Housing lender. I want. The video is 365 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 1: broadcasting live to New York Gloomberg eleventh Yo to Washington, 366 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco, 367 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to the country series XM channel one ninety and 368 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: around the globe. The Bloomberg Radio Plus happened. Bloomberg dot com. 369 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning. It is a seventh 370 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: thirty on Wall Street seven thirty in Washington, d C. 371 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 1: Where Tom Keene and Michael McKee are this morning after 372 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 1: Super Tuesday. Lot going on in the financial world. Here's 373 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: where the corporate headlines were following sports authority filing for 374 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,720 Speaker 1: a cokruptcy this morning after failing to exploit the fitness boom, 375 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: Germany's antitrust regulator opening a probe into whether Facebook abused 376 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 1: its power in the social network market by forcing customers 377 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,919 Speaker 1: to agree to terms allowing use of their data. And 378 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,959 Speaker 1: Anadarko Petroleum rising after announcing plans to sell three billion 379 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 1: dollars in assets this year while cutting spending on new 380 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 1: wells and other projects by almost fifty per six. Now 381 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 1: I'll check in with Michael Barr and get the latest 382 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: world in national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, thank you very much. 383 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have taga Massachusetts primaries, with 384 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 1: both candidates also widening their leads nationally. In Super Tuesday contests, 385 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 1: Trump out distance his Republican challengers. Clinton got a narrow 386 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,120 Speaker 1: win over Bernie Sanders in the state and answer Super 387 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 1: Tuesday overall, Trump and Clinton each one seven states. Meanwhile, 388 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is catching some heat in 389 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 1: his home state after endorsing Donald Trump. Six New Jersey 390 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 1: newspapers have called on the former presidential candidate to resign 391 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: as governor. Cruise in southwestern New York State are working 392 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: to contain a leak on an ethanol tanker that derailed 393 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 1: early this morning. The tanker was among sixteen cars on 394 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: a freight train that derailed in the town of Ripley, 395 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 1: about sixty miles southwest of Buffalo. Shaff Joseph Gerassie. We've 396 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 1: evacuated forty five houses. Thirty people are in shelter right now. 397 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: Others found family and friends to stay with. Grossi says 398 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: the clean up could take days. The Royal Caribbean cruise 399 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 1: ship that was battered in a storm last month in 400 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 1: the Atlantic as we returned to port early, cutting short 401 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: and other cruise because of weather issues. The Anthem of 402 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 1: the Seas docked in Beyond New Jersey early this morning. 403 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:42,120 Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by our 404 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 1: twenty four hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news 405 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 1: bureaus from around the world. On MICHAELA. Bar Mike Tom, 406 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: thank you Mill Time now for the Bloomberg NBC sports update. 407 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: Here's Jones does all right? Thanks Mike. It was the 408 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 1: outbreak of domestic violence cases in the NFL that led 409 00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: Baseball with the Union to agree last summer to a 410 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,639 Speaker 1: new policy. The first players suspended under it is new 411 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 1: Yankees reliever A roll This Chapman, who was involved in 412 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 1: the incident last fall in Florida with his girlfriend. Though 413 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: no charges were brought, he was alleged to have choked 414 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: her and then taking a handgun and fired eight shots 415 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: in his garage. Baseball has suspended Chapman for the first 416 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: thirty games of the upcoming season. Busy night for the 417 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 1: Locals only. The Islanders won three two at Vancouver on 418 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 1: a Thomas Hicky goal in the third period. The Isles 419 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 1: of one eight of their last eleven. The Devils of 420 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 1: lost six of seven playoff hopes for fading Carolina with 421 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,439 Speaker 1: two late goals to win three one at the Garden, 422 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: two teams going opposite ways. Portland beat the Knicks one 423 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: oh four eight five. Blazers have won fourteen of their 424 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 1: last sixteen. Knicks have lost fifteen of eighteen. At one point, 425 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 1: Carmelo Anthony was heckled by a courtside fan, so he 426 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 1: pointed the owner, James Dolan, and told the fan to 427 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: ask Dolan for his money back was to be the 428 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,520 Speaker 1: last time. The next whatever faced Kobe Bryant, but he 429 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 1: didn't play source shoulder. Rookie D'Angelo Russell scored thirty nine 430 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 1: points Lakers into their eight game losing Strake beating Brooklyn 431 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 1: one oh seven, one on one with Bloomberg NBC Sports upthing, 432 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 1: I'm down Stashi, Thank you John Well. We did not 433 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 1: stay up late to watch the Islanders. We were watching politics. 434 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 1: Will continue our discussion on that with E. J. Deon 435 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:16,480 Speaker 1: of the Brookings Institution and the Washington Post coming up 436 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: in just a moment about ten o'clock when the game 437 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 1: was getting underway out in Vancouver. The Super Tuesday primaries 438 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 1: were for the most part, wrapping up a big night 439 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 1: for Hillary Clinton, a big night for Donald Trump. What 440 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,199 Speaker 1: happens next? That's our subject for most of today on 441 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:41,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg surveillance worldwide. Welcome back to Bloomberg Surveillance. It is 442 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,880 Speaker 1: a down day, at least in the futures markets right now. 443 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 1: S and P futures are off by four points down, 444 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: EMUNI features down by twenty eight. Nasdaq features are five 445 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 1: points lower. Up in Europe, however, with the stock six 446 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 1: up a point that's three tenths of eight percent. The 447 00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg n j I T STEM Report is brought to 448 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 1: you by New Jersey Institute of Technology, partnering with government 449 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 1: and industry to apply the university's world class research assets 450 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 1: to innovate and spur economic growth. Learn more at n 451 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,159 Speaker 1: j I T dot e d U. Here's Bob My 452 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: Good Morning, coming up on seven thirty five on Wall Street, 453 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 1: and here's what's making news and science, technology, engineering and math. 454 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 1: The future of Facebook and other Internet services that make 455 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:24,359 Speaker 1: money advertising things to you may hinge on your personal information. 456 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 1: Germany's antitrust regulator opened a probe into whether Facebook abused 457 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 1: its power in the social network market by forcing customers 458 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 1: to agree to take it or leave it terms allowing 459 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,159 Speaker 1: the use of their data. The Federal Cartel Office is 460 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,400 Speaker 1: examining whether the terms breached data protection laws and whether 461 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: imposing them is an antitrust violation, even as the authority 462 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: acknowledge that information about users is hugely important for advertising 463 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:50,120 Speaker 1: financed internet services. Facebook set an emailed statement that it's 464 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: confident in complies with the law and looks forward to 465 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 1: working with the investigators to answer their questions. The social 466 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 1: network is facing mounting pressure from the European Union's twenty 467 00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,920 Speaker 1: eight privacy watchdogs over how it uses the treasure trove 468 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,919 Speaker 1: of customer data, a half dozen countries of open separate 469 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: national investigations. One concern. Can users really understand and assess 470 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 1: the scope of the agreement they're accepting and exactly what 471 00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 1: they're giving up? And that's this morning's Bloomberg n j 472 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 1: I t STEM report. Mike. I'm presuming you've read every 473 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: one of the roughly three thousand words that make up 474 00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:24,639 Speaker 1: Facebook's terms of service about two thousand nine. I got 475 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 1: a little more work to do. I'm thinking about e 476 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,880 Speaker 1: j D on out on Facebook and Twitter, and on Facebook. 477 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 1: I guess I can't get there. Bob Moon, thank you 478 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:33,920 Speaker 1: uh so much with us. E j D one of 479 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 1: the Brookings Institution, Georgetown University, and of course writing not 480 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: often enough in the Washington Post his new book, Why 481 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 1: the Right Went Wrong. I love the subtitle Conservatism. Uh. 482 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 1: And he goes on to talk about from Goldwater to 483 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 1: the Tea Party and beyond. E j D. And let's 484 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 1: talk about Washington. We're thrilled to be with FM Washington. Uh. 485 00:26:55,880 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 1: It's it's such an interesting and historical capital. We are 486 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 1: nestled against the New York Avenue Presbyterian Church over three 487 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: blocks is St. John's Episcopal Church, the Church of the Presidents, 488 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,680 Speaker 1: and that with a lovely Catholic heritage here as well. 489 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 1: Does religion matter to Washington and to this election? What 490 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 1: religion does matter a lot to this election at the moment, 491 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,399 Speaker 1: particularly on the Republican side. If you look by the 492 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:27,400 Speaker 1: way at Ted Cruise's victory and Oklahoma. Obviously a lot 493 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 1: of it has to do with his being next door 494 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:34,680 Speaker 1: in Texas, but that this is one place where evangelical 495 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 1: evangelicals board against who have been split actually delivered for Cruise. 496 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,439 Speaker 1: Crews carried the evangelical vote, which is about three quarters 497 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,720 Speaker 1: of the Republican vote in Oklahoma, and Trump beat him 498 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 1: badly among those who aren't evangelical. But what you've seen 499 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,480 Speaker 1: in this primary is a real split in that vote, 500 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 1: the white evangelical vote, between those who are voting on 501 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 1: the old issues that Cruiz talks a lot about abortion, 502 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:05,640 Speaker 1: same sex marriage now religious liberty, uh and those who 503 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,439 Speaker 1: are just so angry that the culture has gotten away 504 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:13,960 Speaker 1: from them. We see the country changing in horrible ways. Uh, 505 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 1: from their point of view that they are voting for 506 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:20,880 Speaker 1: the angry candidate Donald Trump to stop them. Uh. And 507 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: so we're gonna have a real reckoning at the end 508 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,160 Speaker 1: of this election or in where we're having it right now, 509 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 1: about what the religious conservative movement actually is on the 510 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 1: Democratic side. I'm struck that Hilary is speaking more and 511 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 1: more in religious terms. You know, she is a good Methodist, 512 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 1: She is actually a religious person. I've thought for a 513 00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,560 Speaker 1: long time, uh that you know, if her problem is 514 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 1: that some people don't think she's authentic, this isn't part 515 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 1: of herself that's real, uh, and that she can speak 516 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 1: to And I think you've heard it last night. You 517 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 1: heard it after her victory in South Carolina when she 518 00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 1: quoted St. Paul on love. And she's even using the 519 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 1: term love and saying we need more of that in 520 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 1: our public life. I think it's gonna be an interesting 521 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 1: turn on her part. We've got about a minute and 522 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 1: a half or so left. Give us a quick cliff 523 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 1: notes on the book and the path from Goldwater to 524 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 1: the Tea party, because very Goldwater was very much isolated, 525 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,080 Speaker 1: shall we say character I'm not saying isolationists, but um, 526 00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 1: he would rather lose on principle than win by compromising. 527 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,960 Speaker 1: But then Ronald Reagan took that to the party's apatheisist. 528 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,880 Speaker 1: He was willing to compromise with Tip O'Neil and others. 529 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 1: Party diet great, and now look, how did we get 530 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 1: from there to here? What the core Goldwater promises? Go 531 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,200 Speaker 1: Waterer was a lovely man in so many ways. By 532 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,640 Speaker 1: the way, I'm very critical of his ideas in nineteen 533 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 1: sixty four, but he was a very decent man. But 534 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 1: remember it was Barry Goldwater who said in nineteen sixty 535 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:57,480 Speaker 1: four extremism in defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation 536 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 1: in pursuit of justice is no to UH, and that 537 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 1: Reagan did indeed compromise. There are kind of I argue, 538 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 1: there are two Reagans. The Reagan that ideologues referred to, 539 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 1: who really was a movement guy UH, and the Reagan 540 00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: who governed, who was willing to compromise when he had 541 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 1: to deal with Democrats, which he did both as president 542 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 1: as governor of California. UM. But the goal of his 543 00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:25,240 Speaker 1: promises couldn't be kept. Their party radicalized, and I think 544 00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 1: that it's a leadership today when they can't stop Trump 545 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 1: is really paying a price because they played footsie with Trump. 546 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 1: Romney is trying to beat him now, welcomed his endorsements, 547 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:40,400 Speaker 1: giving him really falsome praise at the time. Um and 548 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 1: the one he keeps coming back to me as John 549 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 1: Kennedy's line that he who foolishly writes to power on 550 00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 1: the back of the tiger ends up inside the Republican 551 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: leadership road. The forces that are now giving us Donald Trump, 552 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,320 Speaker 1: and they're paying a price. Okay, e J don't thank you. 553 00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:03,840 Speaker 1: So years ago, Why Americans Hate Politics, it was a classic. 554 00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: The new book Why the Right Went Rang. Mr Diono, 555 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 1: Georgetown Brookings and The Washington Post. We say good morning 556 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,160 Speaker 1: to all of you u FM in Washington and coast 557 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 1: to coast on this Super Wednesday. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. 558 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance is brought to by the New York Chamber 559 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: of Commerce. Mining agriculture opportunities abound in Nigeria. Learn about 560 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 1: protective investments in Africa's most active markets. Thursday March three, 561 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 1: Breakfast eight am, twenty West Street. Breakfast is free global 562 00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,520 Speaker 1: business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com. 563 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,040 Speaker 1: The Radio plus Mobile and on your radio. This is 564 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm Karin Moscow. This updates 565 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,120 Speaker 1: brought to you by marks Pan at l LP, ranked 566 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 1: among the top three forensic accounting firms in New York 567 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 1: by the New York Law Journal for the six year 568 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 1: in a row. Visit marks panet dot com ubs groups 569 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 1: of executive Sergio or Matty says negative interest rates are 570 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:07,480 Speaker 1: encouraging risky lending practices among some banks, potentially posing a 571 00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 1: threat to the water financial system. He spoke earlier today 572 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Francine Laqua. I think in 573 00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 1: general the European banking system is clearly as a huge 574 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 1: over capacity. The problem is really to create an environment 575 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,160 Speaker 1: in which we learned from the mistakes of the of 576 00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,800 Speaker 1: the past, is that not every bank should try to 577 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,920 Speaker 1: copy the other bad Thank us to find his own 578 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,280 Speaker 1: ways to to to leave through the next at the 579 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,640 Speaker 1: next phase. And as UVS Group CEO Sergio or Maddi 580 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,480 Speaker 1: has heard earlier on Bloomberg Television. US DOT index futures, meanwhile, 581 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 1: are lower this morning after a surgeon Shares sent the 582 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,240 Speaker 1: SNP five hundred two and almost two month high We 583 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,840 Speaker 1: checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day 584 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg snp Emedy futures down two and a half 585 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,320 Speaker 1: points now in Many futures down nineteen and as dak 586 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,040 Speaker 1: Emny futures down two and a half dacts in Germany's 587 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 1: up six tenths verset an tend your treasury down five 588 00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,960 Speaker 1: thirty seconds. They yield one point a four percent. Nim 589 00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 1: Max screwed oil down one point four cent or forty 590 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 1: eight cents to thirty three nine two a barrel Gomex 591 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 1: school this it'll change down forty cents to twelve thirty 592 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,240 Speaker 1: forty announced the euro at dollar O A five three, 593 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,920 Speaker 1: the N one fourteen point four zero. And that's a 594 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike, thank you, Karen so 595 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,800 Speaker 1: much greatly appreciated. A trip to Washington for Super Tuesday 596 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 1: and Super Wednesday means you need to speak to people 597 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 1: without hysteria. We just did that with E. J. Deone 598 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,640 Speaker 1: of the Brookings Institution and of course the Washington Post. 599 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 1: To top Mr Deone, there's only one person in Washington 600 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 1: to speak to. Out of wake Forest. He has carved 601 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 1: a career in journalism, including plastered on the back wall 602 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 1: of a Palm restaurant, his effort with the Capital Gang 603 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 1: on CNN for ages, and of course with Bloomberg for 604 00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 1: a continued age. Albert our Hunt joins us right now. 605 00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 1: Wonderful to have you here, sir, Tom. It's great to 606 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 1: be here with all those years of experience that you have. 607 00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:05,200 Speaker 1: Yesterday Judd Gregg gave us a view and Vin Webber 608 00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:09,200 Speaker 1: gave us. Is it their Republican party, No, it's not. 609 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,880 Speaker 1: It is a party and revolver party that's angry, if 610 00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:16,839 Speaker 1: party rank and file that's full of anxiety. The establishment 611 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,920 Speaker 1: is in a panic mode. They want to stop Donald Trump. 612 00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,000 Speaker 1: They're not going to be able to in all likelyhood. 613 00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,319 Speaker 1: Do you so? Mike's got so much good perspective on this? 614 00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:29,480 Speaker 1: One more question? Do you assume that the establishment Republicans 615 00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:33,200 Speaker 1: will migrate to Secretary Clinton or do they just sit out? 616 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,680 Speaker 1: What's your experience on that. It'll divide, some will set out, 617 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,240 Speaker 1: some few will migrate to her if you will find 618 00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,520 Speaker 1: some fig leaf of independent party, frivolous candidate of sorts. 619 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,240 Speaker 1: But let me say one thing yesterday about about about yesterday, Tom, 620 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,640 Speaker 1: I learned politics from a great Speaker of the House, 621 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:55,839 Speaker 1: Thomas P. O'Neil, who one time said all politics are local. Well, 622 00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,399 Speaker 1: in journalism, it's if you're looking for the great story. Now, 623 00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,520 Speaker 1: the country matters in the long run. But the great 624 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:04,160 Speaker 1: story occurred yesterday. Both Trump and Clinton one, but they 625 00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:08,160 Speaker 1: didn't win decisively enough to brush aside their challengers. Ted 626 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:11,880 Speaker 1: Cruz won three contests yesterday, Marco Rubio one his first. 627 00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,280 Speaker 1: We got a good contest for another two or three weeks, 628 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,400 Speaker 1: and the Democratic side burning one four out of eleven. Well, 629 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,479 Speaker 1: you're saying we have a good contest for the next 630 00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:23,080 Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Let's talk about the tactics and the 631 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 1: strategy we move into. We start to move into the 632 00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:30,120 Speaker 1: winner take all primaries, and that could change the delegate 633 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,720 Speaker 1: accounts significantly. But will it. Is there a place where 634 00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:38,400 Speaker 1: you can see Marco Rubio winning, breaking through and taking 635 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 1: the momentum away from Trump. I think it's very difficult. 636 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,360 Speaker 1: I think the greatest hope for those anti chump factions 637 00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,040 Speaker 1: really is that you have a broker convention where Donald 638 00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:50,240 Speaker 1: Trump comes in with and UH and the like. Because 639 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: their their winner take All begins on the fifteenth of March. Mind, 640 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,359 Speaker 1: but not all states a winner take all. So uh 641 00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,880 Speaker 1: and and where Mitch McKell made a huge miscapsulation was 642 00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,319 Speaker 1: everybody got to get out so someone could take on 643 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,400 Speaker 1: Trump one on one. No, because if that happens, Trump's 644 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,799 Speaker 1: gonna win Ohio off case he gets out, If if 645 00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,239 Speaker 1: Marco gets out, Trump wins Florida. You want to have 646 00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,319 Speaker 1: those three or four people in the field right now 647 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,160 Speaker 1: at some point you want to take him on one 648 00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:15,799 Speaker 1: on one, but it's gonna be hard for any of them. 649 00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:19,320 Speaker 1: Where's the money right now? The door to the party, 650 00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:23,759 Speaker 1: the people who will keep the the other candidates running. Well. 651 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,440 Speaker 1: Cruz has a lot of money. Cruiz has this guy Mercer, 652 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,040 Speaker 1: Robert Mercer, and he's got others who kicked in big. 653 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,600 Speaker 1: He's got a couple of super pacts. Rubio really needed 654 00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 1: to win the Minnesota caucuses. I know that seems kind 655 00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,680 Speaker 1: of funny right now, but he needed one win and 656 00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:39,640 Speaker 1: then if he wins Floridy, he'll get the money. There's 657 00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,200 Speaker 1: also outside money coming in. The Ricketts families now spending 658 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,640 Speaker 1: money just to take on Donald Trump. Excuse me, what 659 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 1: is the biggest smoke filled room you've ever been in? 660 00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:52,240 Speaker 1: How smokey was a classic l hunt. It was venty 661 00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:56,200 Speaker 1: six Republican convention when Ford and Reagan went in dead 662 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,200 Speaker 1: tide and uh, Ford beat him, but it was a 663 00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 1: smoke filled him and it was rooms and it was fabulous. 664 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,880 Speaker 1: It was a lot of fun. You had a lot 665 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:08,680 Speaker 1: of power brokers. Drew Lewis back to that, Drew, No, 666 00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,600 Speaker 1: we won't. I kind of wish we would, but we won't. 667 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,000 Speaker 1: Drew Lewis, who just died a week or so ago, 668 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,040 Speaker 1: was the guy that delivered that convention to Gerald Ford. 669 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:19,719 Speaker 1: I know there is no Drew Lewis today in the 670 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,520 Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan squirming up in that belcony. It was like 671 00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:29,200 Speaker 1: being a Pittsburgh Penguins fan watching the Washington Capitals. Tom 672 00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:32,080 Speaker 1: suffered through the game last night. It wasn't it wasn't 673 00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 1: the outcome he was hoping for. Uh. We watch the 674 00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,640 Speaker 1: Florida primary, particularly because Rubyo is staking his hopes on it. 675 00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:42,439 Speaker 1: He's twenty points behind right now in the polls there. 676 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:46,840 Speaker 1: We take those polls seriously, as Trump really that strong. Uh, 677 00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,520 Speaker 1: how does Florida play up? What Rubio would say? As 678 00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 1: he was twenty points down in Virginia and lost by two. 679 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:55,640 Speaker 1: It's his home state. Uh, he hopes to get Jeb 680 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 1: Bush's endorsement. I'm not sure he will, and I endorsements 681 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,319 Speaker 1: matter all that my but he looks it's Stewart die 682 00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,319 Speaker 1: for in there and don't forget Ohio is the same 683 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:08,360 Speaker 1: day John Casey has to beat Trump in Ohio. In 684 00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,880 Speaker 1: terms of the way we campaign, Trump has upended all 685 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:15,239 Speaker 1: the rules. He has drops in that makes a few appearances, 686 00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,160 Speaker 1: flies back home to New York almost every night. Has 687 00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:22,080 Speaker 1: he permanently changed the way your campaign the retail uh, 688 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,840 Speaker 1: you know, connection with the voters, or is this just 689 00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,960 Speaker 1: kind of a one off Donald Trump as a celebrity campaign. 690 00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,360 Speaker 1: I hope it's one off, because I think retail politics 691 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:34,400 Speaker 1: make people at least more aware presidents and more aware candidates. 692 00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,600 Speaker 1: I thought New Hampshire voters did themselves a big disservice 693 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,040 Speaker 1: by voting for Donald Trump. You know, not not because 694 00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,480 Speaker 1: I'm so much against Trump, Lamb, because I thought exactly 695 00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,160 Speaker 1: the point you made, you really want retail politics. You 696 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:49,320 Speaker 1: have taught it, Penn that there's a habit of people 697 00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,160 Speaker 1: moving to the middle when they get to the general election. 698 00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,680 Speaker 1: I think Secretary Clinton's school that I'm making a bet 699 00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,880 Speaker 1: there is Mr Trump or whoever takes the Republican not 700 00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:02,680 Speaker 1: have any ability to move to the middle. Very limited. 701 00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,640 Speaker 1: I mean, there's no proof that Donald Trump's appeal is. 702 00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,360 Speaker 1: He tells it like it is, and he has views 703 00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,480 Speaker 1: which I consider outrageous. I don't think you can deport 704 00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,279 Speaker 1: eleven million people. I don't think you can start a 705 00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:17,200 Speaker 1: trade war against Mexico and China. I don't think you 706 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,160 Speaker 1: can build a wall which the Mexicans will pay for. 707 00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:22,240 Speaker 1: But if he backtracks on those times, then he loses, 708 00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,160 Speaker 1: you know, he loses all his credentials. But those angry, 709 00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,440 Speaker 1: alienated people I ain't trying will have a very hard 710 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,520 Speaker 1: time moving in the center. There are people on both 711 00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:31,960 Speaker 1: sides and both parties that say this is what they 712 00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,319 Speaker 1: call a base election more than they moved to the 713 00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,160 Speaker 1: center election. Get your base voters out yesterday the South 714 00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,720 Speaker 1: carry the day for Donald Trump and for Hillary Clinton. 715 00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,120 Speaker 1: And those Southern voters who voted for Clinton had nothing 716 00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,040 Speaker 1: in common with those Southern voters have voted for Trump. 717 00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,000 Speaker 1: Like a question to you to start with your twenty 718 00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:50,600 Speaker 1: years of experience in Washington on like else one hundred 719 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,640 Speaker 1: years in Washington, But basic, are we moving to our 720 00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:57,399 Speaker 1: version of a parliamentary system. Is there some chaos here 721 00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,400 Speaker 1: that will make us like the British Republican Party, that 722 00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,280 Speaker 1: would give you the possibility of having a number of parties. 723 00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,000 Speaker 1: But the two party system is so entrenched in American 724 00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,520 Speaker 1: politics that it's hard to imagine you could have three 725 00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:12,200 Speaker 1: or four viable parties election after election. You could have 726 00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,479 Speaker 1: a lot of soul searching in the Republican Party about 727 00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,040 Speaker 1: what party they're gonna be. Yeah, I basically agree with 728 00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,920 Speaker 1: Mike tom but I don't rule out the fact Republican 729 00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,399 Speaker 1: Party could totally fracture after this election. I really think 730 00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,840 Speaker 1: it's possible because I think that that Trump faction is 731 00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:29,120 Speaker 1: not going to go away. And I don't think that 732 00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:31,560 Speaker 1: can be a comment. This is critical. What do you 733 00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,799 Speaker 1: went to wake forest the land of the Whigs? What 734 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,879 Speaker 1: do you Chuck Todd mentioning the Whigs all the time? Now, 735 00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:42,239 Speaker 1: what do you foresee is the offshoot of a Republican 736 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,640 Speaker 1: party of what a hundred and fifty years, Well, it 737 00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,560 Speaker 1: would be two. It would be two Republican parties could 738 00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:49,720 Speaker 1: be the Party of Paul Ryan, the Party of John Kick, 739 00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,920 Speaker 1: the Party of Marco Rubio even and the Party of 740 00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,680 Speaker 1: Donald Trump And the party of Ben Carr is the 741 00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:59,440 Speaker 1: angry outsiders. Uh, and I'm I'm not I'm not forecasting 742 00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:01,879 Speaker 1: that time to saying that. I think, unlike in the past, 743 00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:03,920 Speaker 1: you have said, well, that's a ludicrous proposition, it's not 744 00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:06,359 Speaker 1: gonna happen. I don't think it's I don't think it's 745 00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:08,839 Speaker 1: far out anymore. It's such a small base it would 746 00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,520 Speaker 1: be hard, it seems to sustain a movement like that. 747 00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,600 Speaker 1: The UK Party in England can't get above ten or 748 00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,080 Speaker 1: fift in the polls. But I want to ask you 749 00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:23,319 Speaker 1: quickly before we go here. Uh. Traditional politics would have 750 00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,280 Speaker 1: us starting to speculate about who if vice presidential choice 751 00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:28,480 Speaker 1: would be, because how they're going to help a ticket 752 00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,080 Speaker 1: down the road. In Trump's case, it's sort of probably 753 00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,720 Speaker 1: gonna be anybody who will take the job, right, Lady Gaga, 754 00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,080 Speaker 1: that's the leading candidate right now. But does it matter 755 00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:42,040 Speaker 1: who Hillary picks less so than um. Look, if Bernie 756 00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,840 Speaker 1: really gave her a contest all the way until June, 757 00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,560 Speaker 1: I really was convinced there was a good chance she 758 00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,800 Speaker 1: had pick Elizabeth Warren just to energize that base. Two women, 759 00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:53,600 Speaker 1: all that, I think, since that's not gonna seems that's 760 00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:55,759 Speaker 1: not going to occur now. I think she'll move more 761 00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,759 Speaker 1: to something very conventional, like Tim Caine or maybe the 762 00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:02,120 Speaker 1: Hudge secretary. Who in twenty seconds, who in the Republican 763 00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:07,000 Speaker 1: establishment are you most focused on? Paul Paul And what 764 00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,640 Speaker 1: do you like what he did yesterday? Yeah? That well, 765 00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,680 Speaker 1: he's horrified. He is a Jack Camp Republican. If my 766 00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:14,920 Speaker 1: dear friend Jack Camp were alive today, he would be 767 00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,279 Speaker 1: mortified by Donald Trump and there's no way in the 768 00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,839 Speaker 1: world he could support Donald Trumph. Thank you so much 769 00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:23,200 Speaker 1: for joining us this morning. Al Hunt, of course, writing 770 00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:25,960 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg View, I featured one of his columns, uh 771 00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:30,439 Speaker 1: today the Republican model is good for Mr Trump. El Hunt, 772 00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:34,399 Speaker 1: of course with Bloomberg View. In Bloomberg News, we need 773 00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,400 Speaker 1: to do a data check. Did you know their markets 774 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:40,160 Speaker 1: going on even as we handle Super Wednesday here in Washington? 775 00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:44,040 Speaker 1: Futures negative three down, futures negative seventeen. Michael McKee and 776 00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:48,600 Speaker 1: Tom keenan support of FM Washington. This is Bloomberg surveillance