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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: It is officially Week five of the NFL season. Here

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Speaker 1: Monday Night football has come and gone, and we are

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Speaker 1: officially kind of a quarterway through the season now due

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Speaker 1: to the of course seventeen game schedule that I still vehemently,

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Speaker 1: vehemently Hey, this is my number one festivus grievance every

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Speaker 1: year is with the NFL for adding this extra game.

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Speaker 1: But here today to not hear me gripe, but to

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Speaker 1: actually talk about what we've seen through a quarterway of

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Speaker 1: the season and what we're looking forward to this week

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Speaker 1: and beyond. Of course the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman with

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Speaker 1: me as always, and today we've hooked a whale. It's

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Speaker 1: wail Capper himself, Drew Dinsik joining us. Drew, how are

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Speaker 1: you doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm well.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate you guys having me. Week five is a

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Speaker 3: fun one to kind of connect with some new voices

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Speaker 3: and kind of get some more perspective because.

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Speaker 2: The easy ish part of the season is over.

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Speaker 3: If you had good priors, you did well early in

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Speaker 3: the season, and now the market is caught up. Like

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Speaker 3: if you had like some thesis that the Eagles were

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Speaker 3: going to be great this year.

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Speaker 2: Well guess what.

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Speaker 3: Now they're five point favorites on the road to a

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Speaker 3: team that was squarely in the playoff on the one

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Speaker 3: seed conversation last year, So you know, presumably.

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Speaker 2: No more betting value there.

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Speaker 3: That kind of goes for a lot of sort of

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Speaker 3: kind of macro thoughts against you across across the league

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Speaker 3: team wise, So you can't really lean on having a

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Speaker 3: prior that was better than the market at the start

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Speaker 3: of the season, and you need to start now finding

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Speaker 3: other actionable angles to to suss out an edge against

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Speaker 3: probably the most the most liquid, and most difficult market

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Speaker 3: to beat in the world.

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Speaker 1: And let's start out talking a little bit about that,

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Speaker 1: because it is a great point I feel like a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are going to default to. And even

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Speaker 1: I for a second was like, wow, really, this is

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Speaker 1: the easiest part of the season when we know nothing.

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Speaker 1: But you make a really great point. If your priors

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Speaker 1: were right, you probably had a really good first four

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Speaker 1: weeks of the year. So where do you go from here?

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Speaker 1: What are the things that you think people should be

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Speaker 1: looking at as they try make their new opinions here

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Speaker 1: with a four game sample.

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Speaker 3: Size, Yeah, so there were some parts of priors for

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Speaker 3: every single team, even ones you had a really solid

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Speaker 3: read on that you needed, you know, a little.

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Speaker 2: Bit of confirmation on.

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Speaker 3: And I think you have to now use the Ford

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Speaker 3: game sample you have and start to kind of crystallize

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Speaker 3: the ones where you feel like you've gotten enough, you know,

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Speaker 3: you've gotten enough of a read to say, sincerely that

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Speaker 3: team x's, uh, you know, is a solid defensive unit

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Speaker 3: at least through passing. Passing defenses an A plus and

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Speaker 3: run defenses is a B. Therefore, this is a good defense, right,

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Speaker 3: So you know, kind of going through team by team

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Speaker 3: and making those sort of qualitative assessments based on what

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Speaker 3: you have is pretty important at this stage. And then

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Speaker 3: from there pivoting into you know, who are some teams

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Speaker 3: that underperformed? Why did they underperform expectation? Are they going

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Speaker 3: to ultimately grow into their prior as you kind of

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Speaker 3: get through this next portion of the season, or are

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Speaker 3: they or are they just they are who they are

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Speaker 3: and we can now kind of grade them as you know,

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Speaker 3: not as good or a lot better. Those are kind

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Speaker 3: of the key decisions that I think really helped inform

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Speaker 3: betting for this next phase. The other kind of weird

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Speaker 3: thing that always manifests this time of year, and it

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Speaker 3: was a week earlier this year, motivations start to become

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Speaker 3: an issue. It is pretty i at least look at

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Speaker 3: some of the sort of the standout sides that performed

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Speaker 3: well in Week four, and you can point to the

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Speaker 3: Niners last night on Monday Night football. You can point to,

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Speaker 3: you know, the Raiders against the against the Broncos on

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Speaker 3: Sunday afternoon. The Raiders were facing an.

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Speaker 2: Own four start.

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Speaker 3: Every adjustment that they had in their pocket to possibly

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Speaker 3: try to, you know, try to get themselves a win,

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Speaker 3: they deployed, you know. The Broncos on the other hand,

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Speaker 3: coming in sitting two and one, even though they you know,

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Speaker 3: they clearly have some answers to, you know, the questions

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Speaker 3: they need to answer themselves, still like just it wasn't

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Speaker 3: quite as much, the intensity, wasn't as much sharpness, wasn't

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Speaker 3: quite as a motivated unit, and so they spot the

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Speaker 3: Raiders a hefty lead and the Raiders put it away,

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Speaker 3: and you can kind of say the same thing for

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Speaker 3: Rams Niners. In my opinion, it's just felt like the

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Speaker 3: Niners walked into that game with a little bit of

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Speaker 3: an Axtra grind because they lose the NFT Championship game

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Speaker 3: last year. They're one and two facing a one in

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Speaker 3: three start, whereas the Rams were like, you know, we're

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Speaker 3: two and one, we're Super Bowl champions.

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Speaker 2: You know, we don't need as much urgency in this spot.

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Speaker 3: And I feel like really the discrepancy and just the

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Speaker 3: intensity and what they brought to the table ended up

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Speaker 3: mattering in those two games. And you're going to find

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Speaker 3: a lot of examples of that over this next week,

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Speaker 3: where situational kind of just speculating on some of the

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Speaker 3: qualitative parts of things ultimately are going to you know,

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Speaker 3: make for avoiding losers or finding winners.

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Speaker 4: A number of things to say here. One I gotta

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Speaker 4: say Tom congratulations on managing not to look smug while

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Speaker 4: also look keen smug over there because he's he's very happy.

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Speaker 4: He was on the show last week talking about how

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Speaker 4: guaranteed Stone Cold Lock the Raiders were going to beat

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Speaker 4: the Broncos, and I was a little dubious, and Tom

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Speaker 4: over there was absolutely correct. So shout out Tom Drue.

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Speaker 4: You you mentioned a couple of things that I have

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Speaker 4: I have questions about it. I want to get your

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Speaker 4: thoughts on So you mentioned earlier, you know, Eagles Cardinals

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Speaker 4: five and a half point favorites here, and so I'm

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Speaker 4: you know, I kind of won a question of like,

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Speaker 4: if we look at the preseason market on this, the

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Speaker 4: Cardinals were favored by two and a half points, So

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Speaker 4: talk about some market movement here, you know, massive, massive movement.

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Speaker 4: And so you know, one question in this is like

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Speaker 4: has this moved too far? And then this also gets

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Speaker 4: to the second question about, you know, like priors and

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Speaker 4: how strongly do you hold on to some of your priors.

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Speaker 4: So I've been very quick to adjust my priors for

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Speaker 4: the Eagles, Like I already liked the Eagles entering the season,

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Speaker 4: but I knew I would want to be quick to

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Speaker 4: adjust up or down based on what we saw, because

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Speaker 4: you know, a lot of sensitivity, wide range of outcomes

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Speaker 4: with that team, and so I would say for them,

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Speaker 4: I've adjusted very quickly upward. For the Cardinals, though, I've

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Speaker 4: actually been stronger on holding on to the prior of

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Speaker 4: them being a solidly mediocre team that still maybe has

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Speaker 4: a wide range of outcomes. But I don't know if

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Speaker 4: I've seen anything to this point to make me move

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Speaker 4: them drastically down. I still think of them as like

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Speaker 4: you are about average and do so. I guess multiple

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Speaker 4: questions here, But what is it that you see that

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Speaker 4: compels you to get off of your priors quickly versus

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Speaker 4: sticking more strongly to the priors.

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Speaker 3: I would say that each team is a snowflake. It

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Speaker 3: has a specific kind of way you need to approach it.

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Speaker 2: They're a little bit kind of unique.

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Speaker 3: And you know, certainly teams where you have a bona

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Speaker 3: fide quarterback that you have a relt because at the

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Speaker 3: end of any kind of a quantitative approach, your most

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Speaker 3: significant contributing variable is going to be your quarterback rating,

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Speaker 3: even if you're doing a team rating, like the team

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Speaker 3: data you've got is because of the quarterback in an

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Speaker 3: offensive side. And so if you have a quarterback who

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Speaker 3: you have relatively high confidence in your rating on, like

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Speaker 3: a Malmes or a Josh Allen, like, they can put

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Speaker 3: up a couple of weeks of stinkers and you're still

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Speaker 3: going to be like, yeah, they're still good. Like this

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Speaker 3: was the chief story last year, right, you know they were.

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Speaker 3: They had some horrific performances in the first half of

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Speaker 3: the season, and you know, people that will get up

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Speaker 3: and be like, wow, are the cheaps even the top

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Speaker 3: ten team? Yeah, they have Pat Homes stop like just

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Speaker 3: like stop like they're going to be fine. Pat Mahomes,

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Speaker 3: Andy Reid Bona FIDE's long long track record, Like, don't

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Speaker 3: overthink this, and so I think experience is a huge

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Speaker 3: factor in hanging on to a prior. And for your

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Speaker 3: Cardinals example, because you have Kyler Murray and Cliff Kingsbury.

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Speaker 3: Now you may not like either of those players or

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Speaker 3: coaches just because their style doesn't you know, fit what

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Speaker 3: you would you know, would you know choose as your

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Speaker 3: first choice for how you want to build a roster

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Speaker 3: or staff a coaching staff. But the fact is, like

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Speaker 3: they have won games in the NFL as a pair.

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Speaker 2: They've done it.

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Speaker 3: Kyler Murray is a top ten quarterback. His prior is

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Speaker 3: relatively strong, like he could slip into the teams if

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Speaker 3: you know. But it's mostly almost everything we have on

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Speaker 3: Kyler Murray through this portion of the career tells you

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Speaker 3: that when healthy, he's a top ten guy. Like, don't

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Speaker 3: overthink it, and so I think holding onto a stronger

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Speaker 3: prior for you know, the offense for the Cardinals and

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Speaker 3: just kind of expecting that they ultimately get to where

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Speaker 3: you you know, you had kind of lined them early

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Speaker 3: in the season. That makes total sense to me. And

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Speaker 3: you have other teams though, where you have you know,

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Speaker 3: wide range of outcomes is the right way to say it.

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Speaker 3: Or a team like the Eagles, where you're like, are

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Speaker 3: they going to take a meaningful step forward? Is Jalen

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Speaker 3: Hurt's going to take a meaningful step forward? Team like

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Speaker 3: the Jaguars, what is Peterson plus Lawrence going to even

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Speaker 3: look like?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 3: Like, you know those kind of questions. You have to

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Speaker 3: be much more nimble in terms of making big time adjustments.

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Speaker 3: And I think you know, just in general, looking for

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Speaker 3: synergy between coach and quarterback is the first most important

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Speaker 3: and then second looking at sort of ancillary pieces around

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Speaker 3: there are there other player level tweaks that are that

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Speaker 3: would kind of give you good reason to come off

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Speaker 3: your prior. This offensive line is playing way better. This

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Speaker 3: wide receiver took a huge step forward between year two

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Speaker 3: and year three. You know, right this this running game

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden isn't a problem. It's adding to

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Speaker 3: the offensive efficiency, right Like those types of smaller things,

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Speaker 3: I think you know, you know, compel me to kind

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Speaker 3: of be a little bit more aggressive coming off of

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Speaker 3: a prior, Whereas you know, any coach in quarterback combo

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Speaker 3: that has a relatively long history, I'm going to stick

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Speaker 3: to my numbers on them for maybe the whole season.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 1: One team that immediately comes to mind for me when

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Speaker 1: you mentioned priors quarterbacks, quarterbacks especially, and teams that, how

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Speaker 1: did you rate them previously? What is your experience with them?

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Speaker 1: And how long is how long are you going to

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Speaker 1: hold onto those priors before moving on from them. The

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Speaker 1: team that I feel like is all of those questions

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Speaker 1: rapped into one by now is none other than the

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Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks with Geno Montana Smith at quarterback right now

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Speaker 1: and the synergy that he seems to have with Pete Carroll,

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Speaker 1: who finally has the gunslinger aerial attack guy that he

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Speaker 1: always wanted so that he can actually blow out this

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Speaker 1: offense and be the passing attack he couldn't be with

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. It is absolutely wild. No one could have

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Speaker 1: predicted this. I was certainly all aboard the Seahawks or

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Speaker 1: trash train, and then hear their third and offensive DVOA

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Speaker 1: and they it works. It apparently is working for this

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Speaker 1: team right now. But then we also like we've seen

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Speaker 1: Geno Smith before and we've seen this Seahawks team before.

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Speaker 1: How soon do you move off these priors and say, hey,

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Speaker 1: maybe this team is actually pretty good because now they're

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Speaker 1: taking on the Saints, who are another team that you

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Speaker 1: very much still have to figure out. Because I feel

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Speaker 1: like everyone's priors are blown out of the water right now.

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Speaker 1: If you thought the Saints were good to start the season,

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Speaker 1: there are games you can point to and say you're right.

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Speaker 1: And if you thought they were bad, there are games

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Speaker 1: you can point to and say, hey, I was right.

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Speaker 1: And so these teams are coming together now. This line

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Speaker 1: has moved all over the place from opening four or

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Speaker 1: five to going to six to back to five. You

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Speaker 1: can find it at a bunch of different places around

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Speaker 1: town right now. Where are you going on both of them?

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Speaker 1: And would you even bet this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I'm ultimately going to have a big old bet on

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Speaker 3: the Seahawks this week based on the way the market

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Speaker 3: is moving. It's been one way action in Saints so far.

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Speaker 3: Best of luck to the Saints. Beckers. A lot of

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Speaker 3: red flags around that team and that organization and this

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Speaker 3: spot in particular, the Seahawks are the great great team

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Speaker 3: to bring up for specifically this type of discussion, because

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Speaker 3: four weeks is still a small sample size. But Geno

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Speaker 3: Smith is performing at a top five level Geno Smith period,

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Speaker 3: and you brought it up. There is there is synergy

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Speaker 3: with what Shane Waldron is trying to do in terms

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Speaker 3: of what he's asking, you know, what the menu of

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Speaker 3: options he is laying out there for Geno Smith. Gino

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Speaker 3: Smith is absolutely nailing it. And you can through four weeks,

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Speaker 3: through small sample size, find plenty of examples of you know,

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Speaker 3: they haven't played anyone or like you know, like they

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Speaker 3: are like they look good because they their defenses, they

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Speaker 3: faced their X, Y and Z. Well can't really say

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Speaker 3: that with Seattle, Like they've gone up against the healthy

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Speaker 3: Broncos defense, who is good. They got you know, a

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Speaker 3: predictable kind of letdown against the Niners, which you know

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Speaker 3: after a Monday night kind of you win your Super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: not a surprise, and then they were very very live

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Speaker 3: at home against the Falcons. And so the question really

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Speaker 3: came last week. You know, we were going to break

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Speaker 3: one way or the other on the Seahawks depending on

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Speaker 3: how they looked in that game because you know, there

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Speaker 3: were some pieces, some younger players that were really starting

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Speaker 3: to step up for the Lions defensively, and if the

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Speaker 3: Lions all of a sudden put it together a solid

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Speaker 3: defensive effort, it won that game on defense. Then you're like, okay, well,

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Speaker 3: Gino Smith is only a guy I could really trust

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Speaker 3: in Seattle, and this offense is still limited and same old,

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Speaker 3: same old. Pete Carroll's you know, tacking into his minus

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Speaker 3: TV tendencies all that stuff have held. Instead, it very

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Speaker 3: much tacked the other way, and it was like they

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Speaker 3: got whatever they wanted whenever they wanted it. It was

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Speaker 3: on the road. It was not a great spot for them,

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Speaker 3: And you know, I think that is enough of a

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Speaker 3: positive signal for me to at least take them much

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Speaker 3: more seriously than I did going into week four. And

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Speaker 3: it's a tough turnaround here because it's another road game,

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Speaker 3: right and in a completely neutral in a vacuum, like

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Speaker 3: oh yeah, going from Seattle to Detroit and then Seattle

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Speaker 3: to New Orleans. Those aren't like especially crazy trips, but

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Speaker 3: they're not trivial. And you know, two back to back

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Speaker 3: road trips like that early in the season can have

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Speaker 3: a negative impact on a team that's trying to come together.

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Speaker 3: But it's not like the Saints are in a good

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Speaker 3: spot themselves. They're coming off of a trip to London.

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Speaker 3: They spent the full week there in exactly the same

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Speaker 3: sort of mentality we were describing the Raiders effort and

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Speaker 3: the Niners effort. Feel like you got that from the

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Speaker 3: Saints too. Like the Saints left it all out there.

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Speaker 3: They got a ninety fifth percentile performance out of Andy Dalton,

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Speaker 3: Crystal Lave, you know, played his most complete game as

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Speaker 3: a pro through his young career. Not a lot of

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Speaker 3: other contributing factory had mark Ingram getting the ball and

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Speaker 3: you know, Latavious Murray and they were still like you know,

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Speaker 3: everybody was playing their heart out in London, and they

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Speaker 3: were still not you know, sixty yard field goal away

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Speaker 3: from you know, going to overtime. You know, the Vikings

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Speaker 3: I think gave you about a C C minus and

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Speaker 3: they still win by three and cover the early number there.

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Speaker 3: So to expect that the Saints can rally the troops

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Speaker 3: in the same sort of way and give you as

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Speaker 3: as solid a qualitative performance this week, I take exception

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Speaker 3: to the defense has talented players, but they're going to

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Speaker 3: be showing somewhere and tear after what they went through

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Speaker 3: this last week. And you know, the travel is non

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Speaker 3: trivial surely, although going from east to west is somewhat

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Speaker 3: less just less troublesome in terms of body effects. So

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Speaker 3: maybe ultimately they're fine and this is a competitive game.

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Speaker 3: But if this is, you know, this is trended towards

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Speaker 3: six all week. I think some of the market makers

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Speaker 3: are still a five and a half ish, but I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna let this find its level here, hopefully at six,

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Speaker 3: and I think I'm going to come in on the

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Speaker 3: Seahawks at that point.

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Speaker 1: Guys, football season is here, and if you want to

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Speaker 1: cash some tickets together. Now back to the show.

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Speaker 2: A follow up on this.

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Speaker 4: So it's it's always interesting to see where the market

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Speaker 4: movement is from preseason to now. It's also interesting, maybe

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Speaker 4: informative to see where there isn't really any movement. And

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Speaker 4: we saw this line at five and a half in

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Speaker 4: the preseason and it's still, you know, right around five

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Speaker 4: and a half, you know, starting to move towards six ish,

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00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 4: but really five and a half. And so you think about,

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Speaker 4: as you mentioned, the way it feels that so much

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Speaker 4: has changed and how we perceive these teams from then

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Speaker 4: to now, and yet the market really hasn't changed, and

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Speaker 4: so why, like why do you think that is? I mean,

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Speaker 4: I'm just kind of looking at this and thinking that,

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Speaker 4: you know, maybe there's not that much of a move

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Speaker 4: from Jameis Winston to Andy Dalton. Maybe there's more volatility

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Speaker 4: with Winston, but maybe there's this idea that Dalton he

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Speaker 4: looked decent in London. He gives you a kind of

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Speaker 4: higher floor, like he maybe have a better sense week

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Speaker 4: to week of what you're getting out of Andy Dalton

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Speaker 4: than Jameis Winston. Maybe that's right, maybe that's wrong. I

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Speaker 4: don't know, but that might be something that is impacting

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Speaker 4: the market here. And then even as good as Seattle

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Speaker 4: has looked on offense, their defense, especially their past defense,

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Speaker 4: is still I mean, it's basically dead last in league.

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Speaker 4: If it's not last, it's bottom three for sure. And

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Speaker 4: so I'm just wondering, why is it that you think

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Speaker 4: even though it feels like these teams are different than

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Speaker 4: they were a month ago or perception of them, but

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Speaker 4: the number still right where it was.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the market is propping this up to a degree

361
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Speaker 3: because I think there were at least I'm trying to

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Speaker 3: read between the lines here a little bit.

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Speaker 2: There was a very very.

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Speaker 3: Non trivial professional move on Seattle last week, and some

365
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Speaker 3: people interpreted that as you know, mostly being cool on

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Speaker 3: the Lions line's dealing with some pretty important injuries, and

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Speaker 3: people are like, oh wow, holy holy smokes, we get

368
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Speaker 3: to sell on the Lions as six point favorites, Like

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Speaker 3: this is too good to be true. I don't care

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Speaker 3: if it's Seahawks. And so there was a pretty one

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Speaker 3: way action there, uh, in favor of Seattle. Now those

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Speaker 3: folks coming back right back to the window and trying

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Speaker 3: to sell high on Seattle. That feels like what's going

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Speaker 3: on right now? Why this has been you know, largely

375
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Speaker 3: Saints support. There may be a little bit people thinking

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00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 3: Saints are looking at this like their season is on

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Speaker 3: the line and they're going to give one hundred percent.

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Speaker 3: But like I said, I think they left a lot

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Speaker 3: on the field in that London game, So this could

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Speaker 3: be a little bit of you know, even more of

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Speaker 3: a letdown, you know, for that for that matter, and

382
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 3: you know there is enough, There was enough of a

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Speaker 3: there was a strong enough prior that Gino Smith was

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00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,880
Speaker 3: not good and that a top five rating is completely

385
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 3: unsustainable that people are going to bet against that just

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Speaker 3: because they're like regression is coming. May not be this week,

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Speaker 3: may not be next week, but I'm gonna be there

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Speaker 3: and I'm gonna bet on it and I'm gonna win

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Speaker 3: when it comes. And you know, he's going up against

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Speaker 3: a tougher defense in terms of past defense this week

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Speaker 3: than he did last week. And the way I kind

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Speaker 3: of read this is I think people are trying to

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Speaker 3: sell high a little bit on Seattle, sell high on

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Speaker 3: Gino Smith, and they're doing it because they believe in

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Speaker 3: the Saints' pass defense.

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Speaker 2: But I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I think Seattle matches up pretty well. I think their

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Speaker 3: offensive line is better than people give them credit for.

399
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Speaker 3: But I know their wide receiver room is you know,

400
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 3: top half of the NFL, if not top ten. So

401
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:28,919
Speaker 3: this is I don't see the type of success that

402
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:34,639
Speaker 3: they've had being somewhat small, you know, short, short order like,

403
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,719
Speaker 3: I don't think it's only going to work against the

404
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:38,880
Speaker 3: Detroit Lions of the world. That should very well work

405
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:42,920
Speaker 3: against this Saints defense. And you know, at the same time,

406
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Speaker 3: if this was under a field goal, I'm staying well

407
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Speaker 3: away from it. But it's out at six. So there's

408
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 3: not a ton of value on the board this week.

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Speaker 3: That one, though, it does look like a good bed

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00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 3: for me in my mind, at least looking at Seattle.

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Speaker 1: Now, how about another game here involving a couple of

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Speaker 1: really volatile quarterback situations. Maybe not so much volatile on

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00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:03,959
Speaker 1: the one side, but the quarterback himself is pretty volatile.

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Speaker 1: The Jets and the Dolphins this week, Zach Wilson, it

415
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 1: was very up and down. He looked pretty good on

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Speaker 1: the first drive, then not so good for most of

417
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,919
Speaker 1: that game and then flawless in the fourth quarter. And

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Speaker 1: then on the other side again, you were also playing

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Speaker 1: the Steelers who didn't have TJ.

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Speaker 2: Watt.

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Speaker 1: But on the other side, you've got the Dolphins. Now

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00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 1: it's going to be Teddy Bridgewater due to the scrambled

423
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Speaker 1: eggs of Tuatagovailoa right now, and you've got the extra

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00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 1: rest here, you've got the Jets at home. What do

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00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 1: you think about these two quarterback situations, because I feel

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Speaker 1: like Miami's offense is still going to be able to

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Speaker 1: make those plays with Teddy Bridgewater, maybe not to the

428
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Speaker 1: same level. But what would your reed be on this

429
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Speaker 1: game that's at three and a half and really has

430
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Speaker 1: not moved from right around that three to three and

431
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 1: a two and a half in some places when it opened.

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Speaker 3: But still, yeah, I think the Dolphins are pretty clearly

433
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Speaker 3: the right side here. This is entirely a matchup based

434
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 3: handicap for me, more so than even really trying to

435
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Speaker 3: nail down what you have at quarterback, I guess, although

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Speaker 3: I will qualify that you know, the skill position players

437
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 3: and the quality of offensive line play from Miami to

438
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 3: this point in the season should make the transition from

439
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 3: to Teddy pretty seamless, particularly with ten days to prepare

440
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 3: for this, they made the decision early. We're going with

441
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 3: Teddy week five. Mike McDaniel has done nothing but kind

442
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 3: of confirmed the high end of his preseason prior in

443
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 3: terms of just the concepts he's bringing. Certainly, maybe not

444
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,680
Speaker 3: other aspects of being a head coach, but in terms

445
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 3: of the offensive vision and game planning, it's been superlative.

446
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 3: And they have played some tough teams and they've done well,

447
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 3: so a lot of respect to the Dolphins, you know, overall.

448
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,600
Speaker 3: You know that the major angle betting against the Dolphins

449
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 3: last week was expecting their defense to be gassed after

450
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,239
Speaker 3: such a hillacious Week three, and I think ultimately that

451
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 3: didn't maybe matter in the late stages of that game.

452
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 3: But now with ten days to get right and the

453
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 3: fact that they have gone against Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen

454
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 3: two and Teddy and Tyreek Hill like, they have faced

455
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 3: some monsters on offense, and now they get to go

456
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 3: against the Jets. Their scheming and what they want to do,

457
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 3: particularly with the kind of their up ticket you know,

458
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 3: an upticket man coverage, a little bit of emphasis on

459
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 3: blitzing to generate pressure. With the depleted a line for

460
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 3: the Jets, and with the young quarterback and Zach Wilson,

461
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 3: who struggled mightily against Man both last season and so

462
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 3: far what we've seen from him this year, this looks

463
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 3: like the perfect recipe for like a twenty seven to three,

464
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 3: twenty seven to ten kind of win. I don't think

465
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 3: I can get anywhere close to a fair price of

466
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 3: three here, even though Miami is on the road. The

467
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 3: Dolphins and the Dolphins and the Ravens not a ton

468
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 3: of separation in my mind. The Dolphins and the Bengals

469
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 3: not a ton of separation in my mind. The Bengals

470
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 3: were six point favorites on the road of the Jets.

471
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 3: The Ravens were six point favorites on the road against

472
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,360
Speaker 3: the Jets. Why in the world aren't the Dolphins.

473
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 1: I also have a flawless betting system to use here

474
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: that helps you determine these games.

475
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:20,919
Speaker 2: It's very simple.

476
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 1: No good things can happen to the Jets twice in

477
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: a row, So anytime you have the chance to bet

478
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 1: against that, always count on it. Viauz the Jets will

479
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 1: manage to take any momentum you think they have and

480
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 1: ruin it. So I'm with you on that, Matt.

481
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 2: What do you think?

482
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:41,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, your betting system flawless obviously, And you know, I

483
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 4: have a question for Drew here on a couple of

484
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 4: things I want in this game specifically, but then two

485
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 4: larger picture thinking about bets that are around the key

486
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 4: number of three.

487
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 2: So this game, I have it.

488
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 4: I have it close to three, but that's also taking

489
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 4: into a count what I think might be too much

490
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 4: of a deduction from Teddy Bridgewater, from Tua to Teddy Bridgewater,

491
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 4: And so I'm leaning that direction of going towards Miami.

492
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,439
Speaker 4: And so one, like, what do you think the drop

493
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 4: off is if there is any drop off from TUA

494
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 4: to Teddy? And then two, when you are around the

495
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,479
Speaker 4: key number three, how much of an edge do you

496
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,959
Speaker 4: have to see in your number in order for something

497
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 4: to be betable for you? So you know, like, if

498
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 4: it's the difference between like four and four and a half,

499
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,399
Speaker 4: like that might not be that big. If it's the

500
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 4: difference between three and three and a half like that

501
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 4: might be big enough for someone to bet. Just kind

502
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 4: of depending on the range that you normally see in

503
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 4: your numbers. So how do you navigate around the key

504
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 4: number three.

505
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 2: I agree with you.

506
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 3: In general, the market is making too much of the

507
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 3: downgrade from Tua to Teddy that I'm clearly on record there.

508
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 2: I agree with you.

509
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,680
Speaker 3: Navigating three is the that's the name of the game.

510
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 3: If you're to bet NFL week by week, you are

511
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,200
Speaker 3: going to be faced with this decision fifty times this season,

512
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 3: and you need to make your correct decision in twenty

513
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 3: eight of those fifty. The general rule of thumb, if

514
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 3: you're coming up with the number quantitatively is you lay

515
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 3: the three.

516
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: If you have a.

517
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 3: Long tail to the favorite, you take the three. If

518
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: you have your most two most common expectations are home

519
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,160
Speaker 3: or dog. You know, a favorite or dog winning by three,

520
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:36,199
Speaker 3: right like, there's fundamentally, if you have two teams of

521
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 3: relative equal strength, it's taking place in the dogs the stadium.

522
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 3: Then presumably the most common outcome is the favorite winning

523
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 3: by three. Second most common would be the dog winning

524
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 3: by three. And if your numbers back that up. If

525
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 3: you're kind of simulating how you think a game will

526
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 3: go and you're seeing that, then taking the plus three

527
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 3: or you know, taking them oneyline completely reasonable approaches a

528
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 3: game like this. I do see a long tail to

529
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 3: the Dolphins winning with margin, and a ton of that

530
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 3: kind of comes down to game state. Right, a three

531
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 3: point game, two relatively evenly matched teams, you're expecting to

532
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 3: be kind of in the balance all game trading scores. Right,

533
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 3: maybe one team is coming back, but for the most part,

534
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 3: it's going to be, you know, pretty neutral game state

535
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 3: the whole way. And in that situation, taking the dog

536
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 3: plus three, if you think that's how it goes, is

537
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,919
Speaker 3: slam dunk. I think this is much more likely to

538
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 3: play to Dolphins gaining a lead, and I say long

539
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 3: tail to the Dolphins winning by margin because basically, in

540
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 3: any game state where you take the Jets rushing attack

541
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 3: out of it and this becomes now, you know, not

542
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,199
Speaker 3: unlike last week where he was successful, but this becomes

543
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 3: Zach Wilson, you must now operate in comeback mode in

544
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:02,719
Speaker 3: must pass situations. I find that the Dolphins defense has

545
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 3: a huge advantage in that sort of setup. Right, So basically,

546
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 3: any type of game state where we get to Dolphins

547
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 3: are up by two scores in the second half of

548
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 3: this game, I'm feeling very very good holding a three

549
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 3: or even a three and a half really, because I

550
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 3: think you're heading towards that comfortable margin victory the the

551
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 3: you know, the a team with a more experienced quarterback,

552
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 3: with you know, a better offensive line, a better run defense.

553
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 3: Now now I'm thinking, okay, comeback mode is real. This

554
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 3: team's going to be able to come in the back door.

555
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 3: They're going to be able to close this margin, and

556
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 3: I think that wipes out some of the long tail

557
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 3: favorite winning by margin. So for me, a lot of

558
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 3: kind of choosing what to do around three, beyond just price,

559
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 3: which is obviously kind of number one, is sort of

560
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 3: trying to facilitate what does the distribution outcomes look like?

561
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 3: Is there a tail either way? Or are we talking

562
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 3: about a true fifty to fifty type of game where

563
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 3: it makes sense to just kind of grab some of

564
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 3: the value of the second most likely outcome being dog

565
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 3: wins by three.

566
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: Now talking about another big quarterback disparity here, the cheat

567
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: not the Chiefs. The Buccaneers this week are taken on

568
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: the Falcons that numbers currently hanging around nine. And would

569
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 1: you say, how would you navigate something like that kind

570
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 1: of a large spread, especially with Tampa coming off a

571
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 1: loss right now, And also, I don't know, maybe the

572
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: recent Tom Brady news that we've heard today playing a

573
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: potential factor.

574
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 3: I think that news is old news from everything that

575
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 3: I kind of read between the lines there. You know,

576
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 3: we have friends in Costa Rica who are like, that's

577
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 3: a long, long, long story. But I think that this

578
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 3: has been in the works for quite a while, so

579
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 3: would be surprised if Tom Brady's personal life impacts his

580
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 3: performance on Sunday. But the matchup against the Falcons is

581
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 3: an interesting one for a lot of reasons because the

582
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 3: Falcons offense is very unique and they're now matching up

583
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 3: against a Tampa defense that is ninety eight percentile in

584
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 3: the NFL, if not ninety ninth, And really only have

585
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 3: issues with them going up against what they went up

586
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 3: against on Sunday, which was an elite quarterback and on

587
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 3: a good day. Right, there's a tendency for Todd Bowles

588
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 3: to tack into being very aggressive at all costs, and

589
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 3: if he's not getting home, if he's not affecting the

590
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 3: quarterback's performance by the pressure he's generating by being aggressive,

591
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 3: then they can get carved. I would expect that Mariota

592
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 3: carving them is low likelihood, in which case, basically the

593
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 3: way that their roster defensively should keep the Falcons into

594
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 3: a relatively low total. Falcons run the ball a heck

595
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 3: of a lot. They're you know, they're a little bit

596
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 3: on the slower side in terms of team. They're now

597
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 3: without Corderyl Patterson, who has been sort of one of

598
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 3: their surprise positives for the whole season. Don't know what

599
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: they're doing with London and Pits in terms of deployment

600
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 3: in the passing game, and so all of a sudden,

601
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,880
Speaker 3: this first glance is, how are the Falcons going to score?

602
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: The flip side of the coin. Tampa is getting healthier, surely,

603
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 3: but they still have big issues with that offensive line.

604
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 3: Offensive line is getting beat regularly. And you know, so

605
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 3: for those you know, for anything material to develop down

606
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 3: the field, or for anything to get going on the ground,

607
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 3: you're asking for a huge improvement in a week, in

608
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:47,239
Speaker 3: a one week sample. So you know, I think in

609
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 3: a vacuum, this under looks extremely appealing. Actually, I'm sorry

610
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 3: I played this under.

611
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 2: Like under forty eight here a lot.

612
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 3: I don't think I could get involved with laying the

613
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 3: points because it's just an awful lot of points. The

614
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 3: way you're going to need some turnovers, You're going to

615
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 3: need something to spark offensively for Tampa, and I think

616
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 3: you know, both offensively and defensively. Is the market correctly

617
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 3: rating the Falcons. I'd say they're a little light on both,

618
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 3: so not a unit that I'm like dying to go

619
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 3: to war with, surely, But right now market has the

620
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 3: Falcons at about nineteenth offensively on its seventeenth Falcons thirtieth defensively,

621
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 3: I'm about twenty sixth, so a little bit higher on

622
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 3: the Falcons than the market, and I think it's still

623
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 3: way too early to keep the Buccaneers offense in some sort.

624
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 2: Of rarefied air where they're going to get to thirty points.

625
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 3: In this week.

626
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper.

627
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,120
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628
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629
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: My friends and I changed over this year and I

630
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631
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632
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633
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: First in any sport, choose two or more players that

634
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 1: you like and pick the over under. For example, rushing

635
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: yards in a football game or number of points in

636
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: a basketball game. Then choose the amount of money you

637
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,920
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638
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,440
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639
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640
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641
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642
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643
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644
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645
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,920
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646
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647
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650
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652
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Speaker 1: get your read on here for being a little higher

654
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 1: or lower on right now, because well, I don't think

655
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: anyone really expected it last week for the Packers to

656
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 1: go to overtime against new rookie sensation Bailey Zappi. But

657
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 1: that's indeed what we got and made. I'm sure plenty

658
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 1: of survivor contestants have to sweat it out to the

659
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: bitter end. What is the deal with this Packers team?

660
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 3: To me?

661
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,280
Speaker 1: I think that it's pretty clear that no DeVante Adams

662
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 1: means this offense is a lot less dynamic. I think

663
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: that you have a chance for that to improve as

664
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: the season goes on. Romeo Dobbs is already starting to

665
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 1: come into his own as a potential target for Aaron Rodgers.

666
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 1: But they can't put up the points the same way

667
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: that they could against some of these better offenses in

668
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 1: previous years, and I'm worried about what that's going to

669
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 1: mean for them when it comes time to play a Chiefs,

670
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 1: to play a Tampa, to play even a Rams on

671
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 1: some days where you're going to get into a shootout

672
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 1: and you need to be able to fire back. I'm

673
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: more worried about that than I've been in the past

674
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 1: with the Packers. Are you higher or lower on them

675
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 1: right now? It's another large spread this week nine and

676
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: a half with the Giants. But you want to talk

677
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 1: about uncertainty, at quarterback. We don't know who's going to

678
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 1: be playing in that game. I'm here for Saquon in

679
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 1: the wildcatle game.

680
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 3: That would be fun. I don't think they're going to

681
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 3: do it. I think they're going to try to limited

682
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones out there, so take away his mobility and

683
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 3: best of luck to him. Sick one Barklay matches up

684
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 3: well against the Packers defense. This Packers defense is more

685
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 3: difficult for me to figure out than their offense. I

686
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 3: think their offense is solved. Aaron Rodgers is good enough

687
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:38,799
Speaker 3: to win a close game. We all know that he's

688
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 3: good enough to kind of make the plays that need

689
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 3: to be made in a game winning drive situation, particularly

690
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 3: if he's going up against a defense that's you know,

691
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,280
Speaker 3: average or a little even a little better than average,

692
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 3: Like that's you know, he's experienced, he's got the tools

693
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 3: in his toolbox. Surely he does not have a ton

694
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 3: of chemistry or trust in the wide receiver group that's

695
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 3: out there not taking chances, certainly not early in the game. Right,

696
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 3: He's running a lot of vanilla stuff. But I think

697
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 3: in the scripted portion, particularly like what we saw against Tampa,

698
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 3: he looked great and I think in those spots where

699
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:14,879
Speaker 3: he knows what everybody's going to be doing because they've

700
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 3: gone through it ten times, and you know, when they're

701
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 3: installing the plays and everybody's kind of doing their job

702
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 3: correctly and you know, catching the balls that are thrown,

703
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 3: then they look functional. And I would expect that you

704
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 3: see generally good scripted portion of an offense from the

705
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 3: Packers as we continue to matriculate through the season. But

706
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 3: when the going gets tough and they face teams that

707
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 3: are score an answer or putting pressure on them scoreboard wise,

708
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 3: they are going to look bad. And I think that's

709
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 3: basically what you saw in the Vikings game. I don't

710
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 3: think I don't think that's the only time you're going

711
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 3: to see that this year. There'll be other examples where

712
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 3: you're like, oh man, where, oh yeah, this is what

713
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 3: happened when they were playing the Vikings like a team

714
00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, like ball bounces against them and

715
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:00,439
Speaker 3: they're down for team.

716
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 2: What do they do?

717
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,960
Speaker 3: You know that may be game over for them. So

718
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 3: it's it's your general thesis, great reason not to get

719
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 3: involved in any kind of Packers futures. They had trouble

720
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 3: scoring answering with the elite teams, even with Devonte Adams.

721
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 3: So now they're gonna all of a sudden find just

722
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 3: awesome chemistry and do it without them. It seems like

723
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 3: they want to be a more balanced team that runs

724
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 3: pretty aggressively with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

725
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 2: Not not my.

726
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 3: Preferred way to watch football, But if that's what they

727
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:39,760
Speaker 3: want to do and they can actually get to being

728
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 3: good and efficient doing that, then more power to them.

729
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 3: But yeah, this is a weird offense, but kind of

730
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 3: again like super soft defense, teams are going to run

731
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 3: on these guys. If the Giants and Sakuon are kind

732
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 3: of having a good day and they're getting the push

733
00:37:57,560 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: in the run game, they're going to make this an

734
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 3: interesting one for sure.

735
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 4: I have a follow up on specifically this defense, and

736
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 4: so I think, and you mentioned this defense kind of

737
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 4: hard to figure out the Packers. I think they're the

738
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 4: kind of team that will get better as the season

739
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 4: goes along. I think probably both sides of the ball.

740
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 4: As you know, Aaron Rodgers has more of a connection

741
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 4: with the wide receivers, and you know there are some

742
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 4: important rookies in that defensive unit, and you know presumably

743
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 4: as they get more action, that unit coalesces and they

744
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 4: will improve there. But I mean, I've got to say

745
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 4: I thought this was going to be very good defense.

746
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 4: They are number thirty two and Dvoa allowed to number

747
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 4: one wide receivers. That's concerning when jay R Alexander feels

748
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:46,920
Speaker 4: like the kind of guy who could shut down a

749
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 4: number one wide receiver. But we saw what Justin Jefferson

750
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 4: did to them in week one when they didn't really

751
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 4: let Alexander man him up, and then Alexander now is

752
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 4: dealing with injury issues, so he's not at his best.

753
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 4: So you know, if you can't stop the opposing team's

754
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 4: number one wide receiver, that seems like a problem, especially

755
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 4: when you're also number thirty two in rush success rate

756
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,399
Speaker 4: on the defensive side of the ball. So, I mean,

757
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:15,919
Speaker 4: I feel like this Packers team will be good at

758
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 4: some point this season, Like you can see the path

759
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,600
Speaker 4: to how they improve, and they have the players, But

760
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 4: I don't know if I'm there yet. I mean, where

761
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 4: what do you make of this defense and do you

762
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 4: think it actually will improve as this team? Do you

763
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 4: think this team will improve?

764
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 2: I am disappointed by the defense so far.

765
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 3: So some teams, you come in with high expectations and

766
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:44,439
Speaker 3: you downgrade them back four weeks. That's kind of where

767
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,720
Speaker 3: I am with these guys. Some of it is injury related,

768
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:51,240
Speaker 3: as you mentioned. Some of it is just the scheme

769
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 3: itself has not the you know, the scheme itself was

770
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,840
Speaker 3: going to rely on a lot of younger players taking

771
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 3: meaningful steps forwardarticularly in the run game.

772
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 2: Run fit.

773
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 3: It's part of their scheme and it just hasn't happened.

774
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,439
Speaker 3: The questions about their covering wide receiver ones is very

775
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 3: real and I don't think it gets solved anytime soon.

776
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 3: They play a lot of outdoor games. Obviously they played

777
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 3: cold Weather, have a decent home field advantage. So if

778
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 3: I was going to lay Packers, I'm probably waiting until

779
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 3: you know, November, December, January to do it, and I'm

780
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 3: probably only doing it in Lambeau. And some of that

781
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 3: is even even that, like if they face the wrong

782
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 3: team in that stretch who's out physicaling them and is

783
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 3: getting whatever they want in the run game, then they

784
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 3: could lose some of those I am right now kind

785
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 3: of seeing the Packers as the number two in the

786
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 3: NFC North. I think the schedule is so much easier

787
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 3: for the Vikings than they already have the one head

788
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 3: to head victory that they ought to be favored in

789
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:54,760
Speaker 3: that division.

790
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 2: And then you know, I.

791
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 3: Think we have in the same way that you kind

792
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,400
Speaker 3: of Packers will get better over the balance of this season.

793
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 3: I agree they ought to, but I think the Vikings

794
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,720
Speaker 3: will too. Kevin O'Connell gets more comfortable with the system

795
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 3: and the players that he's got and what Kirk Cousins

796
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 3: Cannon can't do, that offense should get more efficient, and

797
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 3: you know, I think Packers are probably ought to be

798
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 3: priced like they're playing for a wild card spot, but

799
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 3: the NFC is so weak then they probably will get one.

800
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 3: So at that point they go on the road, they

801
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:33,839
Speaker 3: face the likes of the Bucks and Eagles and Niners

802
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 3: on the road in January, then they're probably wouldn't have

803
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:37,439
Speaker 3: done in my mind.

804
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 4: All right, on one question here before we get to

805
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:44,879
Speaker 4: Thursday night football. So final question when thinking about sort

806
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 4: of how how teams have changed in our estimations of

807
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 4: them since the season started Jacksonville, I will call anyone

808
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:54,879
Speaker 4: a liar who doesn't say that that is the team

809
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 4: that they have adjusted the most in their power ratings

810
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 4: since the season started, you know, like like no way

811
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 4: that someone was like, oh yeah, Jacksonville. I assumed that

812
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 4: they were going to be what we've seen so far.

813
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 4: Like I thought that they were going to be a

814
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:13,399
Speaker 4: team that improved but was still probably bottom five. And

815
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 4: I mean they at this point, I think are If

816
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 4: they're not average in your rankings, you know, they're very

817
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 4: close to it. I was really impressed by how they

818
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 4: started out that game against the Eagles last week, you know,

819
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 4: like up by two touchdowns, and I was just thinking like,

820
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 4: oh man, like this team actually might be for real

821
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 4: and then reality set in. But you know, Trevor Lawrence

822
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 4: is looking like a top ten quarterback with what we've

823
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 4: seen so far. He has a competent head coach, like,

824
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 4: at a minimum, a competent head coach. That defensive line

825
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,359
Speaker 4: has I think really flashed. They've been strong against the run.

826
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:54,720
Speaker 4: It's not like the most important thing for a defense,

827
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 4: but it's it's something. I'm just kind of impressed by

828
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:01,919
Speaker 4: the infusion of talent that they've had there and then

829
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 4: how they how quickly they have coalesced that into a

830
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 4: functional organization. What do you think the actual ceiling is

831
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 4: for this team?

832
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:18,439
Speaker 3: You're asking the wrong person because I am wearing keal

833
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 3: colored glasses. I bet Jaguars to win the Super Bowl

834
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,760
Speaker 3: at one hundred and fifty five to one for the season.

835
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 3: I squinted real hard, and I was like, guys.

836
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 2: Look kind of like the Bengals last year.

837
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,839
Speaker 3: They're in a winnable division. They have a second year

838
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,919
Speaker 3: quarterback who could take a meaningful step forward. They've made

839
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,479
Speaker 3: an upgrade a head coach more than the Bengals, did,

840
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 3: you know. And so the Bengals didn't make an upgrade

841
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:44,880
Speaker 3: at all, but their coach just kind of coached a

842
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 3: better season. And yeah, so I was definitely, you know,

843
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 3: I'm I'm bullish Jags at being real, and you know,

844
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,399
Speaker 3: I was watching that Eagles game with the same sort

845
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 3: of mindset of these guys are for real. They're going

846
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 3: to win this game. They're going to be three to one,

847
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:05,280
Speaker 3: and people are going to have to start paying attention

848
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 3: to them. And then the wheels fell off with all

849
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 3: the fumbles because of the conditions and because the offensive

850
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 3: line still has some room to grow. When they go

851
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:18,399
Speaker 3: up against real deal big boys on the d line

852
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 3: on the other side of the football, you probably need

853
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 3: to have a little bit of a lower ceiling for

854
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,959
Speaker 3: the Jags on any given day. But I do think

855
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 3: that there are plenty of positive signs to take away

856
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 3: from the first four weeks of the season that this

857
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 3: team is going to ultimately be in the playoff picture

858
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 3: in the AFC this year. I don't know that there's

859
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:40,959
Speaker 3: anyone else in the AFC that really fits the same

860
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 3: mold as who the Eagles are right now that would

861
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:46,359
Speaker 3: give them a tough time in the playoffs. Though a

862
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 3: lot of later kind of faster offense, you know, oriented

863
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 3: teams in the AFC broadly, not a lot of you know,

864
00:44:54,080 --> 00:45:00,040
Speaker 3: just trench warfare maulers. So they're maybe still live to

865
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 3: get to the super Bowl. It's not crazy. We know,

866
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 3: Lawrence has you know, the pedigree guy won a national

867
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 3: championship going now, well, it'd be a very good team

868
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 3: in doing so. And I think, you know, overall, they've

869
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 3: ovoided the early season injury curse, which not a lot

870
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 3: of other teams can say, so that's positive for them.

871
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 3: Their schedule is pretty easy because they're in the ANFC South,

872
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:32,720
Speaker 3: of course, and I think, again, I'm team Teel here,

873
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 3: so take this with a grain of salt, But even

874
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 3: after losing to the Eagles and not even covering the

875
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 3: number I had, I was like.

876
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:43,439
Speaker 2: That was a good thing. That was good.

877
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 3: Like if they got you know, if they got wins

878
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 3: against the Charges and the Eagles back to back, real

879
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 3: young team like that, they start.

880
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 2: Reading their own clippings, they lose a little bit of focus.

881
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 3: Maybe, you know, the season gets they lose to the

882
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 3: Texans the next week and things get derailed. But you know,

883
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 3: I think a tough, hard fought loss like that and

884
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 3: a lot of learning, you know, a lot of lessons

885
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 3: they can take away from that and take into this

886
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 3: middle portion of the season is ultimately going to be

887
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 3: a good thing. And I would expect that great things

888
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 3: will come from this Peterson Lawrence marriage. Just knowing that

889
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 3: Peterson has done it before with less and the fact

890
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 3: that Lawrence was by everyone who has an opinion that matters.

891
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 3: I can't miss Prospect so excited for what they're building

892
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 3: downe there.

893
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:27,800
Speaker 2: For sure.

894
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 1: I really want to see a Josh Allen Josh Allen

895
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 1: MVP Defensive Player of the Year quickly. Season's That's what

896
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 1: I'm waking for.

897
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 2: That'd be cool, pretty awesome.

898
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 1: I'm even here sitting now like looking at the Nasty

899
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 1: Survivor slate for this week, going what else am I

900
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,960
Speaker 1: going to use Jacksonville with this spot? Like this feels

901
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:45,879
Speaker 1: like the spot for them.

902
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:48,720
Speaker 2: It's not crazy.

903
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 3: I haven't gotten involved betting wise in this market yet,

904
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 3: but I see it's ticked from seven to seven and

905
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 3: a half or juicy seven, I guess.

906
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:01,799
Speaker 2: Not.

907
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, not ready to say to anything positive about the

908
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 3: Texans so far. Davis Mills is an absolute absolutely over

909
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:11,360
Speaker 3: his head and he's getting no help.

910
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:13,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

911
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 3: I think the Texans are getting what they want out

912
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 3: of this season, which is a chance to evaluate all

913
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 3: of the very young, inexperienced players on their roster. And

914
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 3: I think they know they have some guys. Damian Pearce

915
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:30,239
Speaker 3: is the guy you want to you want to keep

916
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:34,320
Speaker 3: around and give a healthy load to, you know. Jalen

917
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:37,439
Speaker 3: Petrie is a guy that you know you can build

918
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 3: a defense round. Surely Stingley looks good, but other than that,

919
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 3: this is a very a talent a team devoid of talent,

920
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 3: and jack should beat them on that alone.

921
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 1: We will see. It's going to be interesting. But let's

922
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 1: focus on one more game here before we let you go.

923
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football coming up this week. The Indianapolis Colts

924
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 1: dealing with a lot right now. The the authorities are

925
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 1: investigating them for elder abuse due to their treatment of

926
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:07,840
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan as their quarterback.

927
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 2: Every week right now.

928
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 1: But they head into Denver now is three point dogs.

929
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 1: No Jonathan Taylor. As much as I think Denver is

930
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 1: not good, and you've got a quarterback who possibly everybody

931
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 1: on his team hates, and honestly, oh man, I'm still

932
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 1: having nightmares over that sandwich commercial. But Russell Wilson did

933
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 1: not look bad against the Raiders. That was definitely the

934
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 1: best game that he's had so far this season. And

935
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 1: everybody was ready to chuck Nathaniel Hackett overboard after the

936
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 1: first two games, and I don't know, maybe he's settling

937
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 1: into the role a little more. I'm not about to

938
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 1: go out there and say we got the next Bill

939
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 1: Belichick on our hands, but maybe this Denver team is

940
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 1: now finally starting to settle down after a couple of weeks.

941
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 1: It is a new quarterback, new offense, new coach. Entirely,

942
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:58,280
Speaker 1: where are you going in this one? Three honestly doesn't

943
00:48:58,280 --> 00:48:59,080
Speaker 1: feel like enough to me.

944
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 3: I thought you were going to make a joke off

945
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:06,000
Speaker 3: off the top about Matt Ryan was being investigated for

946
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:08,879
Speaker 3: stealing sixty million dollars from the Colts between this year

947
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 3: and the.

948
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:11,839
Speaker 1: Next year, earning every penny contract.

949
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 3: This is, this has gone sideways, very very Both of

950
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:20,800
Speaker 3: these experience has gone so was very quickly. And I think,

951
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 3: you know, back to sort of the priors discussion, a

952
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 3: lot of folks in the bedding community, who I have

953
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 3: tons of respect for because they have long term winning

954
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 3: records in the NFL, were high on the Colts and

955
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 3: or high on the Broncos or both, and I was

956
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 3: hesitant to put them in sort of the rare air

957
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:45,399
Speaker 3: of the AFC, just because it takes time, teams time

958
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 3: to kind of come together, the synergy, the growth, the company, know,

959
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 3: the you know, it's the Brady going to Tampa and

960
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 3: having success in year one is the exception, not the

961
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,919
Speaker 3: role in these types of late quarter back arcs where

962
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 3: you really, you know, you change a team and I

963
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 3: don't hold either Matt Ryan or Russell Wilson in the

964
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:09,239
Speaker 3: same conversation as Brady, So it's easy to kind of

965
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 3: be a little skeptical about how these were going to

966
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 3: work in year one. And to this point, the re

967
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 3: terms have been poor I think in terms of what

968
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:20,240
Speaker 3: was expected in both cases, and some of the blame

969
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 3: I think goes to the coaching staff, general manager, and

970
00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:30,319
Speaker 3: the quarterback in both for both sides. Here, Indianapolis is

971
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 3: the tougher question to answer about whether this is fixable,

972
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:37,839
Speaker 3: because what used to be the strength and the core

973
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 3: of this team in their offensive line is playing very

974
00:50:40,719 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 3: poorly right now. And if you're not even getting enough

975
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:47,440
Speaker 3: push to get a complimentary run game to go along

976
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 3: with a quarterback who's aged, then you are all of

977
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:56,560
Speaker 3: a sudden a really inefficient offense. And that's their reality

978
00:50:56,560 --> 00:51:01,799
Speaker 3: through four weeks. And even all of that said, there

979
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 3: were moments against the Titans in that late in that

980
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 3: first half where I was like, okay, starting to see

981
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 3: some of the pieces come together about coaching, quarterback and

982
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 3: what they ought to be doing right now. It didn't

983
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 3: ultimately land in a win, So you know, congratulations on

984
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 3: a little bit of growth that got you nowhere, but

985
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 3: there's some building blocks starting to show up there. And

986
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 3: I think you can say the same thing for Russell

987
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:31,239
Speaker 3: Wilson in the Denver broncos on that you know, with

988
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, his cleanest performance of the year so far,

989
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 3: but it was against a really, really bad defense. But

990
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 3: maybe the culture are really bad. I worry without Leonard

991
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 3: that this and with Gus Bradley calling, you know, calling

992
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 3: the shots there and really just not a ton of

993
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:54,839
Speaker 3: talent outside of Gilmour and Buckner, who's also hurt. By

994
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:59,359
Speaker 3: the way, you know that this might be a real,

995
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,960
Speaker 3: real week defense that Russell Wilson gets to go up against.

996
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 3: And you know, for whatever it's worth, the Denver defense

997
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:10,800
Speaker 3: couldn't get off the field against you know, against Josh Jacobs,

998
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,000
Speaker 3: who hasn't been lighting the world on fire lately. So

999
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 3: Denver defense may be a hair over rated considering who's healthy.

1000
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:20,719
Speaker 3: Definitely think that, yeah, I mean I think that injuries

1001
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 3: to me as I look at them, people are focusing

1002
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 3: on the fantasy side of things, which is running backs, right,

1003
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 3: but the defensive injuries I think are going to matter

1004
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 3: more in this game. You've seen the total tick up

1005
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 3: from forty three to forty three and a half. I

1006
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 3: would look over or pass because I think, again, you're

1007
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 3: kind of buying low on two offenses that we're expected

1008
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 3: to at least be league average, and you're selling on

1009
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 3: some defenses that are missing some important pieces. I'm surprised

1010
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:53,319
Speaker 3: that there has been some real Colts money that showed up,

1011
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 3: but it may be similar to what I'm seeing, and

1012
00:52:56,080 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 3: that people are expecting that that offense is starting to

1013
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 3: find a little form.

1014
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:02,400
Speaker 2: Interesting.

1015
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 1: I'm kind of s I'm just as surprised with you

1016
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 1: on that Colt's money showing up here via is my

1017
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 1: first glance, especially from everything we just talked about, would

1018
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 1: definitely be the lean Denver in the spot. But we're

1019
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 1: going back, bringing it full circle to the beginning of

1020
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:17,920
Speaker 1: the show here. This is kind of where the Colts

1021
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 1: you need to say, Okay, it's either get up or

1022
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:21,560
Speaker 1: shut up.

1023
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:27,600
Speaker 2: Now. Yeah, this is their season. They didn't let They

1024
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 2: gave you a.

1025
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:32,279
Speaker 3: Full, full heart perform against the Chiefs at zero to two,

1026
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 3: first home game trying to save their season. They got

1027
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:37,960
Speaker 3: a very lucky win because of some bad special teams

1028
00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 3: by the Chiefs. They were lackluster last week, but almost

1029
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:44,839
Speaker 3: fought their way back into that game. And I think, yeah,

1030
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:47,879
Speaker 3: the cycle would tell you that, like they can get

1031
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 3: up for the spot and maybe at least get.

1032
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 2: Twenty one points. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

1033
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 3: But there's probably a little, you know, kind of interest

1034
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:03,200
Speaker 3: in fading Hackett in his first Thursday Night appearance. Hackett

1035
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 3: has not shown an ability to handle the head coaching

1036
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 3: and offensive coordinating duties in tandem. And you know, Thursday

1037
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 3: night football is where you tend to see that manifest

1038
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:16,319
Speaker 3: most severely. But again, they're going up against a bad

1039
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:19,080
Speaker 3: defense with the Colts, So I don't know.

1040
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:23,880
Speaker 4: I look at this and I think, you know, okay,

1041
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 4: so a couple of things and I'm going to have

1042
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:29,920
Speaker 4: a final question here that is related to Thursday Night Football,

1043
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 4: but kind of bigger picture. I look at this and

1044
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 4: I think, you know what, my life will be happier

1045
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:37,399
Speaker 4: if I don't bet this, and maybe if I don't

1046
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 4: even watch this game. You know, as sacrilegious as that

1047
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:44,719
Speaker 4: might sound, not watching Thursday night football, you know, not

1048
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 4: every game needs to be watched. It feels like this

1049
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 4: might be in that category, though, I'm yeah, you know,

1050
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 4: but I'm probably going to stay away. I will probably

1051
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 4: be staying away from from aspects of this game. But

1052
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:59,360
Speaker 4: the question, you know, I and you mentioned the Daniel Hackett.

1053
00:54:59,840 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 4: I I look at some of the decisions that these

1054
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 4: coaches make, and you know, I have a quote unquote model,

1055
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:09,919
Speaker 4: it's a spreadsheet. I don't know what I'm doing. Let's

1056
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:11,919
Speaker 4: just be honest, you know, I like, I'm a self

1057
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 4: taught hack when it comes to like the things that

1058
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:15,360
Speaker 4: I'm putting in the models and how it is that

1059
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 4: I wait things. But decision making for coaches, it is,

1060
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:24,080
Speaker 4: I think pretty hard to incorporate things like that into

1061
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 4: a model. And so I have, you know, like a

1062
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 4: column within my spreadsheet that has like notes about like

1063
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:33,879
Speaker 4: the various dumb decisions that coaches will make. And I'll

1064
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:36,440
Speaker 4: try to kind of think about this, like is this

1065
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:37,839
Speaker 4: really the team I want to back?

1066
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:38,000
Speaker 2: Like?

1067
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:41,399
Speaker 4: Do I really want to back Nathaniel Hackett when he

1068
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,399
Speaker 4: does this? This and this and so? How is it

1069
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:49,839
Speaker 4: if you are incorporating decision making into your handicapping or

1070
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 4: your model, How is it that you're doing it? And

1071
00:55:54,200 --> 00:55:56,479
Speaker 4: how much are you waiting it? How do you take

1072
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:58,799
Speaker 4: all of that into account when you're thinking about what

1073
00:55:58,960 --> 00:55:59,840
Speaker 4: you're going to bet?

1074
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, it definitely is. It definitely matters.

1075
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 3: But I also think that, uh, there are enough NFL

1076
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 3: games and enough edges to find out there that making

1077
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 3: a bet solely based on some qualitative opinion of a

1078
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 3: coach good or bad is not enough, right, Yeah, if

1079
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 3: if you have an edge on a game, if you're

1080
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:29,359
Speaker 3: making a game three and a half and it's three,

1081
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 3: or you're making it four and it's three even, and

1082
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:33,839
Speaker 3: you're like, okay, I'm gonna fire of the favorite here,

1083
00:56:34,320 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 3: and then you look at your spreadsheet and you're like,

1084
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:40,479
Speaker 3: this coach is a you know, it's a numb nuts

1085
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 3: or whatever. Then you know, all of a sudden, maybe

1086
00:56:44,200 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 3: I don't make that bet right or vice versa. It's like,

1087
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:49,960
Speaker 3: I've seen an edge on this four and oh, by

1088
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 3: the way, I get to fade this guy that I

1089
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 3: don't like. Yeah, it's a little more ammo in the

1090
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,320
Speaker 3: little more ammo in the chamber. Maybe like helps you

1091
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:01,120
Speaker 3: shade like what would be on aotative edge a little

1092
00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:03,279
Speaker 3: bit more towards, you know, towards the side that you

1093
00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 3: think you already see value on.

1094
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:06,759
Speaker 2: So I think.

1095
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:12,640
Speaker 3: Using it as sort of a secondary layer beyond putting

1096
00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:14,759
Speaker 3: together a number is the right approach. And I think

1097
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 3: there are beyond coaching, there are a lot of those

1098
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 3: sort of things, player level injuries stuff. If you're not

1099
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 3: incorporating a player level injury, you know, if you're not

1100
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:28,200
Speaker 3: if you're going top down, which is basically a team rating,

1101
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:30,040
Speaker 3: to come up to a number or power rate and

1102
00:57:30,080 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 3: come up with a number you're it's a good starting point.

1103
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 3: I would advise anyone to at least try that. If

1104
00:57:34,760 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 3: you don't know what I'm talking about. There's plenty of

1105
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:38,680
Speaker 3: resources out there. How do you come up with a

1106
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 3: power number? And what do you do with that? But

1107
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:47,320
Speaker 3: if you're ignoring the impact of certain player level stuff, right, so,

1108
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 3: you see an injury report and you know that it

1109
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 3: hasn't been vet into the market yet because it's just

1110
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:57,480
Speaker 3: breaking news, like this player is out, and you see

1111
00:57:57,520 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 3: the number move a point, and you kind of do

1112
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 3: a quot aitative, Well.

1113
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:03,400
Speaker 2: Is he worth that much? How do we figure out

1114
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:04,200
Speaker 2: if he's worth that much?

1115
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 3: Let's look at the splits with and with that, let's

1116
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:07,920
Speaker 3: look at you know, like how he matched how did

1117
00:58:07,920 --> 00:58:10,760
Speaker 3: he match up his personnel packages against the defense he

1118
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 3: was up against. Who's his replacement? Is his replacement maybe

1119
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 3: better than we think than the market thinks, right?

1120
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 2: You know?

1121
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 3: So, kind of using like a player level availability, a

1122
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 3: coaching decision making, you know, rubric or or situational you

1123
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 3: know factors, using any of that sort of stuff as

1124
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 3: sort of a layer beyond however, you're coming up with

1125
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 3: a fair price is a useful way to get off

1126
00:58:33,200 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 3: of bad bets or to find good bets in my mind,

1127
00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 3: And you know, I think once you get through enough

1128
00:58:39,680 --> 00:58:43,480
Speaker 3: cycles of betting using power numbers even and have just

1129
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:45,919
Speaker 3: a good feel for what the market power numbers are

1130
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:49,840
Speaker 3: or implied market power numbers ought to be, you know,

1131
00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:52,440
Speaker 3: then that becomes sort of your mental model for making

1132
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:55,840
Speaker 3: bets anyway, and then that's effectively your just you know,

1133
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 3: your decision tree is kind of firing based on that

1134
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:01,440
Speaker 3: information implicitly, which is where you ultimately want to get to.

1135
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:05,600
Speaker 3: So I think keeping track of it is important though

1136
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 3: otherwise you're just gonna have biases based on say you

1137
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:10,439
Speaker 3: lost a bet or one to bet because a coach

1138
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:12,520
Speaker 3: did something stupid at the end of the game, or

1139
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 3: maybe he did something right and you've decided it was

1140
00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:17,040
Speaker 3: stupid because you lost a bet on it, right, and

1141
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:19,320
Speaker 3: then the next time out you're determined to bet against

1142
00:59:19,360 --> 00:59:23,360
Speaker 3: that guy, like you know, you bet the Raven's money line.

1143
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:25,360
Speaker 3: You're pissed at harb off or not kicking the field goal,

1144
00:59:25,400 --> 00:59:27,080
Speaker 3: even though it was the right decision. To go for

1145
00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:29,440
Speaker 3: the touchdown, you know, and the next time, well, I'm

1146
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:31,480
Speaker 3: gonna bet the Bengals this week because you know, screw

1147
00:59:31,520 --> 00:59:34,560
Speaker 3: our ball. You know, obviously that's a that's a bad bet.

1148
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, you don't. You don't give the Bills the ball

1149
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:40,200
Speaker 1: back down three in that situation, you just you just don't.

1150
00:59:41,080 --> 00:59:43,960
Speaker 1: I'm fully in agreement with you there. But Drew on

1151
00:59:44,040 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 1: this note, that is going to do it for us

1152
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:49,080
Speaker 1: here on the Betting Pros Podcast today one more time,

1153
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:52,200
Speaker 1: Drew Dinsik, where can people find you and the great

1154
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 1: work you're doing, especially your Bet the Edge podcast.

1155
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:57,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, Bet the Edge podcast is available on the

1156
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 3: NBC YouTube channel Sports YouTube. I mean, we're we're on

1157
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:06,240
Speaker 3: the Big Boys stream now. They combined our Bet the Edge,

1158
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:10,919
Speaker 3: our NBC Sports Edge with the main NBC Sports stream,

1159
01:00:10,960 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 3: which is as cool as can be.

1160
01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:13,240
Speaker 2: Presumably it's going.

1161
01:00:13,200 --> 01:00:15,280
Speaker 3: Up on Peacock sometime soon as well, which will be

1162
01:00:15,360 --> 01:00:18,040
Speaker 3: neat but for now, at least I tweet about it

1163
01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:19,080
Speaker 3: every day when it goes up.

1164
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 2: And then same with the deep dive that I do

1165
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 2: with and Andy.

1166
01:00:21,520 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 3: We go wrong for him, like you're interested in a

1167
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 3: fifteen minute you know snapshot that's bet the Edge. If

1168
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:30,960
Speaker 3: you want a little bit more longer form anddy capping

1169
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:34,360
Speaker 3: process oriented stuff, peep dive is your bag. But those

1170
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 3: go up Sunday and Wednesday, and then all of my

1171
01:00:36,320 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 3: stuff was treeted out via my Twitter at Whale Underscore Capper.

1172
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:42,240
Speaker 1: All right, once again, that's Whale Underscore Capper. If you

1173
01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 1: want to follow Dru and seriously give his stuff a listen.

1174
01:00:45,280 --> 01:00:48,400
Speaker 1: It is fascinating and great work. But for Matt f

1175
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 1: the Oracle and myself, guys, that is going to do

1176
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:54,480
Speaker 1: it for us here today. Tune back in on Thursday.

1177
01:00:54,760 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 1: I promise this time we're going to have Peter Jennings

1178
01:00:57,040 --> 01:01:00,240
Speaker 1: on to talk about the weeks later ahead. Guys, have

1179
01:01:00,320 --> 01:01:02,400
Speaker 1: a good one and let's cash those tickets.