1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,960 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 2: Not a bad way to start the week here. 7 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 3: Everybody's going to forget that sell off day after Nvidia 8 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 3: earnings pretty quickly, and of course in Vidia has a 9 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 3: lot to do with China at the moment. We discussed 10 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 3: this a little while ago with comments today from Howard 11 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 3: Lutnik speaking on Bloomberg's surveillance today about the decision facing 12 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 3: President Trump when it comes to selling China high end 13 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 3: in Vidia made AI chips, not the Blackwell, but the 14 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 3: H two hundred. That's the current deliberation happening inside the 15 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 3: White House. And maybe the phone call helped. If you're 16 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 3: just joining us. They did talk today, Trump and she 17 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 3: on the line. We've been waiting a couple of hours 18 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 3: now for a readout on this. It was just a 19 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 3: stray headline. What do you mean they talked this morning. 20 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 3: Usually there's a big drum beat leading up to a 21 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 3: meeting like that. There was nothing this time except word 22 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 3: that they had spoken. Well, here we go, look no 23 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 3: further than truth social I just had a very good 24 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 3: telephone call with President She of China, President Trump writing, 25 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 3: we discussed many topics, including Ukraine, Russia, fentanyl, soybeans, and 26 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 3: other farm products. We have done a good and very 27 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:32,759 Speaker 3: important deal for our great farmers, and it will only 28 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 3: get better, he says. The call was a follow up, 29 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,639 Speaker 3: he writes, to our highly successful meeting in South Korea 30 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 3: three weeks ago. Since then, there's been significant progress on 31 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 3: both sides and keeping our agreements curt and inaccurate. Now 32 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 3: we can set our sights on the big picture. All Right, 33 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 3: We're about two thirds of the way through the post, 34 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 3: and this is where we get to the news. President 35 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 3: She invited me to visit Beijing in April, which I 36 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 3: accepted and I reciprocated where he will be my guest 37 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 3: for a state visit in the US later in the year. 38 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 3: We agree that it is important to we communicate often, 39 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 3: which I look forward to doing. Thank you for your 40 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 3: attention to this matter. Okay, hold this thought, because this 41 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 3: is what happens here in the noontime hour on balance 42 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 3: of power, every story for the day, all breaks at 43 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 3: the same time. Producer James working overtime in the control room, 44 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 3: feeding me the headlines. Judge has just dismissed the case 45 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 3: against James Comy and Letisha James. 46 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 2: We're read now. Look at that read on the terminal. 47 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 2: AP news alert. 48 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 3: Judge dismissing cases against James Comy. Of course, the former 49 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 3: FBI director who the President directed his attorney general to 50 00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:52,679 Speaker 3: investigate an indict les James. The New York State Attorney 51 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 3: General after finding the prosecutor was illegally appointed that indeed 52 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 3: was the case here. Quite remarkable. So what we got 53 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 3: three breakers all in one here? What's the panel supposed 54 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 3: to do with this? I don't even know where to start. 55 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 3: Let's just bring him in. Good thing. Jeanie Shanzano is 56 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 3: with us Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard 57 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 3: Kennedy School's Ash Centered. Of course, our democratic analyst, and 58 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 3: Lonnie Chen is with us today. I love this Republican strategist. 59 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 3: Fellow in American Public Policy Studies at the Hoover Institution 60 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 3: at Stanford University, former candidate California State Controller, former advisor 61 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 3: to Mitt Romney. Great to see you both here, Jennie. 62 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 3: I feel like it should be Taster's choice what to do. 63 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 3: I think I need to start with the judge here. 64 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 3: With the speed with which this has turned around. You 65 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 3: remember the post on truth social that was actually it 66 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 3: was a DM that he inadvertently posted publicly. It said Pam, 67 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 3: and he told her to go after James. Comey, Letitia. 68 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 3: James was already in the crosshairs. Only weeks later the 69 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 3: case is dismissed. What's your read? 70 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 4: You know? 71 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,839 Speaker 5: I think it is a reflection of the fact that 72 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 5: this administration, the president in particular, they have prized a 73 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:16,920 Speaker 5: fealty to the president versus expertise. And of course what 74 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 5: we had here was the appointment of somebody to this 75 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 5: office in Lindsay Halligan who didn't have the experience, A 76 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 5: smart woman, a woman very capable, but hadn't had this 77 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 5: experience before a grand jury, and the number of missteps 78 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 5: that by all accounts occurred in that grand jury. I 79 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,479 Speaker 5: don't think this is a surprise, but again, I think 80 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 5: it's reflective of a larger problem with this Trump White House, 81 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 5: which is that when you are going to focus on 82 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 5: somebody who is abiding by and most concerned of appealing 83 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 5: to this president versus somebody who has expertise in their position. 84 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 5: This is what you come to get. And so I 85 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 5: don't think it's a surprise statue of limitation has run out. 86 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,600 Speaker 5: And I think James Comy has got to be celebrating 87 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,840 Speaker 5: very big after this. And of course my own state 88 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:08,479 Speaker 5: Attorney General l Titia James. 89 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 2: Wow, Lonnie Chen, welcome back. It's great to have you. 90 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 3: You know the old line that you can indict a 91 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:17,919 Speaker 3: ham sandwich, that's apparently not the case. 92 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 6: Well, I mean you you can indict a ham sandwhich 93 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 6: whether that ham sandwich is guilty of poor taste is 94 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 6: a different question. I mean, look, this is I you know, 95 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 6: I don't know that a whole lot of people are 96 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 6: shocked by the outcome. I mean, I think the Comy 97 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 6: and James cases probably were a little different substantively. You know, 98 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 6: the James case arguably had a little bit more than 99 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 6: the than the Komy case did. But I don't I 100 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 6: don't know that anybody's surprised by the outcome here. And 101 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 6: and frankly, I think in the long run, the big 102 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 6: question is, does this chase in the Trump White House 103 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,400 Speaker 6: has this chasing the president in how he approaches these questions, 104 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 6: And my guess is going to be absolutely not. I 105 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 6: think the President's going to continue to be aggressive, both 106 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,279 Speaker 6: in his policy agenda as well as his personal agenda. 107 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 6: So I know it's one of those things. Again, outcome 108 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,720 Speaker 6: not surprising. The bigger question I think we ought to 109 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 6: be thinking about is what the impact will be politically 110 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:17,119 Speaker 6: and otherwise on the White House. 111 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 3: Well, it's really remarkable here, Genie. What happens to Lindsey 112 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,040 Speaker 3: Halligan after getting roped up in all of this. 113 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 2: Is her job here done? 114 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 3: Or does she come back around with some new role 115 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 3: or new indictment. 116 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 5: You know, I suspect she may keep on in the 117 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 5: Trump circles. But I think this speaks volume to what 118 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 5: a misstep this appointment, or attempt to make an appointment 119 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 5: like this, when all of the experts in the department 120 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 5: said that this was a non starter, particularly the case 121 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 5: against Komi. And I think if anybody has any sort 122 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 5: of fancy idea that Donald Trump is going to be 123 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,840 Speaker 5: chased in at all, the answer is no. I mean, 124 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 5: just look at how they are going out against Senator 125 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 5: Mark Kelly in the last few minutes accusing him of misconduct. 126 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 5: And this is the Trump Pentagon. So you know, I 127 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 5: think the reality remains for Donald Trump. If you cross him, 128 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 5: he is going to take every step he can to 129 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 5: hit back against you. And so I think he will continue. 130 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 5: But anybody else would be chased in by the fact 131 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 5: as to how this has come out. And this is 132 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 5: a big win for James Comey, somebody who was not 133 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 5: liked on by the Democrats or Republicans as we all remember, 134 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 5: and who has come out of this. And I think, 135 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 5: you know, he owes a lot to his attorneys. He 136 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 5: had some of the best in the business. 137 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you what what does this mean for 138 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 3: James Comy, Lonnie. They are two different cases and two 139 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 3: different people here. He's been writing books. What does this 140 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:58,880 Speaker 3: do to his story and his ability to operate in Washington? 141 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 6: I mean, I you know, look, I think he has 142 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 6: has made a brand for himself in a lot of ways, 143 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 6: and I think that that will continue. And you know, 144 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 6: this is this is one of those things where it 145 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 6: will test the axiom, uh that that all there's no 146 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 6: such thing as bad news, that the only thing that 147 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 6: really we care about in this political environment now is 148 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 6: exposure and more news. And you know, I think Komi 149 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 6: will be will be testing that theory going forward. But 150 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 6: I think he's largely got the same audience he's got, 151 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 6: and you know, those folks are going to probably find 152 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 6: him more appealing now that he's been exonerated in some ways. 153 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 2: So you know, we'll see where it goes. 154 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,559 Speaker 3: All right, before we learned of this, if you were 155 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 3: with us, we were talking about China because we just 156 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 3: got the closest thing we'll get to a readout, and 157 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 3: that is a true social post from President Trump. He 158 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 3: talked to President she this morning, Genie, and it looks 159 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,439 Speaker 3: like Donald Trump's going to be heading to China in April. 160 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 3: He reciprocated the invitation with one to She for a 161 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 3: full state visit in the US later in the year. 162 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 3: He talks about a good and very important deal for 163 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 3: our great farmers, a successful meeting in South Korea. Now 164 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 3: we set our sights on the big picture. What's that 165 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 3: big picture? 166 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 5: I think this is a critically important development, particularly for 167 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 5: the president now, given how he is being viewed in 168 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 5: terms of the economy and so as you mentioned the 169 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 5: farmer's issue, the issue of soybeans that they talked about 170 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 5: these visits, which I think are important in a continued 171 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 5: conversation what the bigger picture looks like, though to your question, 172 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 5: I'm not sure we know. And I would just add 173 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 5: to that what we heard from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, 174 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 5: which had to do with the President of China talking 175 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 5: about Taiwan and the fact that they would like to 176 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 5: bring Taiwan, as we know, back into the fold the 177 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 5: Chinese mainland. And this comes not long after the Japanese 178 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 5: Prime Minister said Japan could get involved militarily should China 179 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 5: try to take action against Taiwan. So you know, on 180 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 5: the one hand, we have the important economic aspects of this, 181 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 5: and on the other hand we have the important security 182 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 5: and military aspects of this. And for myself, I'm not 183 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 5: sure I'm clear as to where President Trump stands on 184 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 5: the ladder, which is arguably in some ways more important. 185 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:34,359 Speaker 3: Howard Lutnik this morning Lonnie on Bloomberg's TV and Radio 186 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 3: made the point the President's got all the information he 187 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 3: needs to make a decision on high end AI chips 188 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 3: GPUs made by Nvidia. The H two hundred is apparently 189 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 3: the model or the version they're looking at here, not 190 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 3: the Blackwell but if these talks continue to progress on 191 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 3: trade and our economic relationship, isn't that inevitable that Beijing 192 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 3: gets its hands on this technology. 193 00:10:57,640 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 2: Yeah. 194 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 6: And I think if you look at how the administrations 195 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 6: approach issues like export controls, inbound investment controls, all of 196 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 6: these issues that have been really tricky in the last 197 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 6: couple of administrations, it's pretty clear that the president's focus 198 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 6: and his priority is on reaching an economic accommodation with China. 199 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 6: And I think the recent de escalation, and in fact 200 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 6: the recent dialogue that we've seen between the two governments, 201 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 6: suggests that that is the president's ultimate priority. What he's 202 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 6: willing to trade off, so to speak, what he's willing 203 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 6: to put to the side, in order to reach. 204 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 2: That economic accommodation. 205 00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 6: I think that's the big question people are asking you 206 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,599 Speaker 6: raise the issue of Taiwan, which is existential for the 207 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 6: Chinese Communist Party, the fact that the president has not 208 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,040 Speaker 6: pressed as hard on some of the issues that we 209 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 6: know the Chinese are concerned about other countries pressing them 210 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 6: on issues like the internal governance of the CCP, democratic potential, 211 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 6: promotion of democratic norms in China. These are all issues 212 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 6: that this administration has not introduced into the conversation, and. 213 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 2: I think deliberately so. 214 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 6: The focus has been on reaching an economic accommodation. And 215 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 6: I think if you'd ask people before President Trump took office, 216 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 6: this would have been a relatively surprising place to be 217 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 6: one year, almost a year into his presidency, that we 218 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 6: would have this sort of economic accommodation with China, that 219 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,559 Speaker 6: we'd be de escalating. Remember how high the tensions were 220 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 6: with China when he first took office. So it is 221 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 6: a remarkable turn of events in a lot of ways. 222 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:32,200 Speaker 3: This is going to be like a state visit for 223 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 3: President She at the White House later in the year, 224 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 3: I believe was the language that he used later in 225 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 3: the year. So presumably at some point the second half 226 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 3: of next year. Genie, we've got about a minute left. 227 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 3: What will the optics be as they're building the President's 228 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 3: new ballroom and President She rolls up the driveway. 229 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:54,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, is the. 230 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 5: Ballroom going to be done by that point, Joe, I 231 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 5: expect they're in a try. 232 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 7: I believe, so, oh. 233 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 5: No, okay, then they won't be there, but it's going 234 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,959 Speaker 5: to bump right up to a midterm So a visit 235 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 5: like this, you know, it can play both ways in 236 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 5: terms of domestic politics. But I do think it speaks 237 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 5: to a continuation in Donald Trump's approach to foreign policy, 238 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 5: which very much, Toilani's point, is not about addressing issues 239 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 5: of small de democracy, human rights and those kinds of things, 240 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 5: but about making deals. And he doesn't care who he 241 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 5: makes those with, whether it is MBS or Jijinping. He 242 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 5: is there to make deals and he feels comfortable doing that. 243 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 3: Well, there's no shortage of news today. If you're with us, 244 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 3: stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 245 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:39,720 Speaker 3: more coming up after this. 246 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 247 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 248 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,559 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 249 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 250 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 251 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 3: We talked politics in Washington with the breaker from the 252 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 3: White House, the President himself on truth Social not only 253 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 3: confirming the call earlier today with President She, but also 254 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 3: at least putting his own stamp on what happened, calling 255 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 3: it a very good telephone call with President She of China, 256 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 3: one that included many topics, he says, including Ukraine, Russia, fentanyl, soybeans, 257 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 3: and other farm products. He talked about their successful meeting 258 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 3: in South Korea of a couple of weeks ago, and 259 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 3: made clear that he will be going to China. President 260 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 3: Trump says he's accepted an invitation to visit Beijing in April, 261 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 3: after which he reciprocated that President She will be a 262 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 3: guest for a state visit here in the US later 263 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 3: on this year. There are questions, though about what else 264 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 3: was discussed, because China's version of that call is quite 265 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 3: different than what President Trump mentioned here, and there is 266 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 3: of course room for all of these to be true. 267 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 3: But we've had a number of breaking stories over the 268 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 3: past half hour or so, with the Associate Seated Press 269 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 3: first reporting that a judge has dismissed cases against James 270 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 3: Comy and Letitia James after finding that the prosecutor was 271 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:12,800 Speaker 3: illegally appointed. We're also tracking, of course, the latest on 272 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 3: a Ukraine peace plan. A twenty eight point plan we 273 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 3: discussed last week has now apparently been whittled down to 274 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,240 Speaker 3: below twenty points, with revisions coming from the Secretary of 275 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 3: State Marco Rubio to help favor Ukraine in the hopes 276 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 3: of ending the war with Russia, maybe even by Thanksgiving 277 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 3: of this week. We'll find out as we make our 278 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 3: way through the next couple of days, but we start 279 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 3: with what we know and a conversation with Jenny Welch 280 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 3: from Bloomberg Economics, our chief geoeconomics analyst is with us 281 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 3: in Washington, and Jenny, it's great to see you. China 282 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 3: had some other ideas that it said came up on 283 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 3: this call, namely Taiwan. When the President describes this as 284 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:55,359 Speaker 3: productive and very good, how do we think the Chinese 285 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 3: are describing it? 286 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,160 Speaker 8: It sounds from Beijing's reached out to the call that 287 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 8: they framed it in positive terms, that they felt that 288 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 8: President she gave them respect on the matter, essentially recognizing 289 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 8: that Taiwan is an issue that matters a lot to 290 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 8: Beijing and one that is not to be trifled with. 291 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 8: Is I think how Beijing would frame that call. Now, 292 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 8: what I think when they say Taiwan, what they're really 293 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 8: referring to is this ongoing feud with Tokyo over statements 294 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 8: that the Prime minister there made about Taiwan soon after 295 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 8: coming to power. And my bet is that this call 296 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 8: was really about Beijing saying to Washington, let this play out. 297 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 8: Don't get involved, don't get it behind your ally on this. 298 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 8: Just let us play this out. 299 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 3: The anatomy of a phone call between two world leaders 300 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 3: like this can be complex. We don't assume that President 301 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 3: she just picked up the phone, or do we knowing 302 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 3: that there would typically be days of preparations and a 303 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 3: drum beat in the media leading up to that meeting. 304 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 8: Well, normally when things like this come together, it takes 305 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 8: some advanced scheduling. These are two leaders, obviously with pretty 306 00:16:57,080 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 8: busy agendas, so you have to work that out. You 307 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:01,320 Speaker 8: have to work out the time. So I'm sure there 308 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,120 Speaker 8: was something that had to be put in the works 309 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 8: a few days ago. But this doesn't look like a 310 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 8: planned call. This wasn't, for example, a planned check in 311 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 8: on status after the Busan meeting on how things are 312 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 8: going with implementing the trade deal. This seems to be 313 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 8: something that came out more organically, I think, in response 314 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 8: to this ongoing feud between Beijing and Tokyo and statements 315 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 8: that US representatives in the region made recently in support 316 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,640 Speaker 8: of Tokyo that might have led Beijing to think, let's 317 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 8: say something preemptively now before Washington gets involved any further. 318 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 2: Really interesting. 319 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,199 Speaker 3: I want to ask you about one of the issues 320 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 3: that they reportedly discussed on this call, which is Russia 321 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,159 Speaker 3: and Ukraine. You heard me mention the peace plan that is, 322 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 3: as Marco Rubio describes, a living, breathing document, and it's 323 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 3: one that's still being changed. The Secretary of State talked 324 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 3: about this as he showed up in Geneva over the 325 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,400 Speaker 3: weekend for meetings with Ukrainian officials. 326 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 9: Listen, it is probably the most productive day we have 327 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 9: had on this issue, maybe in the entirety of our engagement, 328 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 9: but certainly in a very long time. But work remains, 329 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 9: and because this continues to be a working process, I 330 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 9: don't want to declare victory or finality. 331 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 3: US officials say the draft agreement has been revised, but 332 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,560 Speaker 3: we don't know exactly what has come out or what 333 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 3: has gone in, suggesting that the Secretary of State is 334 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 3: doing something at least more favorable for Ukraine, which had 335 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,199 Speaker 3: a non starter reaction when it saw this draft that 336 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 3: included input from Russia, apparently not from Kiev. 337 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,160 Speaker 2: What do we think is changing, Yeah, and not just input. 338 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 8: It sounds like it was co drafted with Russia, and 339 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:40,439 Speaker 8: you can see that in some of the terms, like 340 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 8: limiting the size of Ukraine's military, that's no go. 341 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 6: For Kiev. 342 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 8: Forcing Ukraine to turn over territories that Russia doesn't currently control, 343 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 8: that's another no go. It's already hard for Ukraine to 344 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 8: potentially accept the idea of seating over territories that Russia 345 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 8: does currently occupy, and I think that continues to be 346 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 8: a real sticking point in these negotiations. But ultimately, I 347 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:05,440 Speaker 8: think we've seen this movie before. Washington talks to Moscow, 348 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,399 Speaker 8: comes out with a set of terms that Moscow agrees with, 349 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 8: and the US, wanting to get peace finally done, brings 350 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 8: them to Ukraine. Ukraine and the Europeans pushback, We come 351 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 8: up with a new deal that Moscow won't accept, and 352 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 8: the war just continues to grind on. So my prediction 353 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 8: here is not an incredibly optimistic one, and that I 354 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 8: don't think we're likely to see a peace deal come 355 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 8: out of it. But I do think whatever we do 356 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 8: get is likely to be more favorable to Ukraine, and 357 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,159 Speaker 8: so there's a crisis averted that they're not going to 358 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 8: be pushed into an unfavorable deal. 359 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 2: Doesn't sound like you see this ending by Thanksgiving. 360 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 8: Though not the war for sure, Maybe the negotiations, because 361 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 8: I think Moscow will very quickly say no, what do 362 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:45,399 Speaker 8: you make. 363 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 2: Of before you leave us? 364 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 3: The three voices the President's hearing from on this, at 365 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 3: least in the most recent throws of negotiations Steve Whitkoff, 366 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 3: Jared Kushner, his son in law, and Marco Rubio, the 367 00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,440 Speaker 3: Secretary of State, who's being framed in the media as. 368 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,159 Speaker 2: The angel on it. And I'm not sure what the 369 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 2: other two are, Jenny. 370 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 8: I think this is what you might refer to as 371 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,879 Speaker 8: kind of a process foul, where there have been people 372 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:10,440 Speaker 8: having negotiations with Moscow and maybe not a full principles 373 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 8: or cabinet level alignment on the ultimate peace plan that 374 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,719 Speaker 8: would be produced and negotiated out of that, and what 375 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 8: we see here is sort of Rubio getting back involved 376 00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 8: not only a Secretary of Seat but also the National 377 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 8: Security Advisor and trying to structure this process a little 378 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 8: bit more. But this is not atypical for this administration 379 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:30,680 Speaker 8: or the Trump team in general. It's something we saw 380 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 8: a lot in the first term, and I think it's 381 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,440 Speaker 8: something more likely to continue to see on this and 382 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 8: other issues. 383 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 2: Really great to talk this out with you. Jenny, Thank 384 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 2: you so much. 385 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:42,479 Speaker 3: Jennifer Welsh Bloomberg Economics are chief geoeconomist with us here 386 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 3: on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with 387 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 3: another breaker. It's just been one after the other today 388 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 3: on this Monday in the Capitol. The White House now 389 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 3: set to delay the healthcare proposal that we were told 390 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 3: to anticipate. That's coming from I guess what we now 391 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 3: call now the old MSNBC, which was ahead on this 392 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:06,919 Speaker 3: story about a two year extension with limitations when it 393 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 3: comes to Obamacare subsidies, not a full repeal and replace 394 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 3: as we've seen in the past. This would allow the 395 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 3: government from shutting down presumably at the end of January, 396 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 3: and would have two years on the clock here, get 397 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 3: through the midterms and give lawmakers an opportunity to negotiate things. 398 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,399 Speaker 3: Apparently now that's not going to be the case, and 399 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 3: it's a good opportunity to bring in. Chuck Fleischman, the 400 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 3: Republican congressman from Tennessee, is back with us today on 401 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV and Radio. 402 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 2: It's good to see you, Congressman. 403 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,719 Speaker 3: You're on the Appropriations Committee and you've got your eyes 404 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 3: obviously on the future healthcare negotiations that were promised coming 405 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 3: out of the government shutdown. Does this make you worry 406 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 3: that another shutdown maybe around the corner. 407 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 4: No, not at all. The original shutdown. And thank you 408 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 4: Joe for talking about me being on appropriations. I'm actually 409 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 4: a chairman on appropriations. I cheer the Inner Water Subcommittee. 410 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 4: So I have been involved in the appropriations process. 411 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 7: Very very closely. 412 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 4: And that's why I was so disheartened by the Democratic 413 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:15,160 Speaker 4: shutdown over this tangential issue, the healthcare subsidies, that has 414 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:19,199 Speaker 4: nothing to do with the appropriations process. And since the 415 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,199 Speaker 4: Democrats caved on that because they couldn't stand on that, 416 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 4: they're going to have to try to find another issue. 417 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 4: They lost the shutdown because they hurt the American people. 418 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 4: I'm going to focus on either before January thirtieth or 419 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:38,880 Speaker 4: by January thirtieth, us conferencing the remaining nine bills. We've 420 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 4: done three that are passed into law, Milconva, ag approches 421 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 4: and legislative branch appropes to our credit. That has done. 422 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,959 Speaker 4: We've got nine more to go. I'm an optimist. I 423 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 4: think we will get it done. I do think the 424 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:56,359 Speaker 4: Democrats hurt themselves on the ACA issues with the subsidies 425 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 4: by bringing that in extraneously to a process that had 426 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 4: nothing to do with it. They were making more progress 427 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:05,639 Speaker 4: before this. They hurt themselves with a lot of folks, 428 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 4: particularly on the right. 429 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 3: Well, I know that you see it that way, Congressmen, 430 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 3: but we're six weeks out from Obamacare subsidies expiring, and 431 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,400 Speaker 3: you've got John Thune promising next door a vote on this. 432 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 3: And I know there are even some Republican members I 433 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 3: won't say the name Marjorie Taylor Green out loud, but 434 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 3: some Republican members who've actually made quite a fuss about 435 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,720 Speaker 3: rising premiums. At some point, something needs to be done, right, 436 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 3: you either extend this or you replace it with something. 437 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 2: What do you think it should be. 438 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 4: Well, bear this in mind. These were COVID Area A 439 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:43,960 Speaker 4: COVID era policies that were actually put in place. So 440 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 4: this is not from the original Affordable Care Act, from 441 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,239 Speaker 4: the original Obamacare. And I would agree we need as 442 00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 4: a nation to have comprehensive healthcare reform. But this just 443 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 4: shows the achilles heel of Obamacare, of the frailties it 444 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 4: was doomed from the inception. 445 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 7: Many parts of it have fallen apart. 446 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 4: It's not been what it was promised to be by 447 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:10,360 Speaker 4: President Obama and the Democrats back then. We need as Americans, 448 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:14,200 Speaker 4: Republicans and Democrats, senators, members of the House to really 449 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 4: look at where we can actually fix the healthcare situation. 450 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,240 Speaker 4: The left has gone crazy. They want Medicare for all, 451 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 4: they want these subsidies. But again, this was a non issue. 452 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 4: This was totally outside the process. Everybody in the Beltway 453 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,959 Speaker 4: knew this. That's why when the Democrats caved in, they 454 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:33,920 Speaker 4: had nothing to stand on. That's why so many in 455 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 4: their base are upset. As for Miss Green, I respect 456 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,200 Speaker 4: her opinions and the like. As you see, she's going 457 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 4: to be leaving the House, vacating her seat. She's my 458 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 4: neighbor right to the south, right across the Georgia line. 459 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 4: She's in my media market. I wish her well and 460 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,639 Speaker 4: we look forward to the next special election, which a 461 00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 4: Republican will win. 462 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 3: With these in March, I suspect that that's true based 463 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 3: on the makeup of that district. The White House plan 464 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,720 Speaker 3: that's just been delayed Congressman apparently includes a two year 465 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 3: extension of the Obamacare subsidies and new limits on eligibility. 466 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 3: There'll be some for instance, income caps for enrollees to 467 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:18,440 Speaker 3: qualify for ACA tax credits, as well as minimum premium payments. 468 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,200 Speaker 3: Is that something that you could get your arms around 469 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 3: to keep premium? 470 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 7: What comes out? 471 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 4: Excellent question. I was willing all along to discuss this issue. 472 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 4: If you recall when the Democrats shut the government down 473 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 4: and finally now they admit they did for whatever reason 474 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 4: they say over these subsidies. They hurt people on snap, 475 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 4: they hurt women, infants in children, they hurt poor people, 476 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 4: they hurt working people, they hurt the country. The issue 477 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:50,160 Speaker 4: of these subsidies is an important issue, but as you recall, 478 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 4: I think we need to look at the overall system 479 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 4: for reforms. As I understand these subsidies as they exist now, 480 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,879 Speaker 4: they're giving it to people who are sometimes four hundred 481 00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 4: times the poverty level. So if we're going to help people, 482 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,400 Speaker 4: let's help people who are truly needy, and not those 483 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 4: who are not in need just for some hypothetical political 484 00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,879 Speaker 4: win for the Democrats. But I still go back to 485 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 4: the fact Democrats hurt themselves on a tangible issue that 486 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 4: was outside the appropriation process. If they'd have continued to 487 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 4: negotiate with our speaker. With Republicans, you would have found 488 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 4: a lot of Republicans coming to the table to talk 489 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 4: about that issue, but in its proper lane, outside. 490 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 7: The appropriation process where it's always been. 491 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:39,919 Speaker 3: Well, i'll tell you what, when everybody comes back at 492 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 3: some point, there's going to need to be a funding mechanism. 493 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 3: And as the appropriations man yourself, you just ticked through 494 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,879 Speaker 3: some of these spending bills. Do we really believe that 495 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,360 Speaker 3: you can get twelve spending bills passed and a government 496 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 3: funded before January thirty? Or do we need another cr 497 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 3: in there somewhere, because whether it's now January thirty February thirty, 498 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 3: it would be the first time in a generation I 499 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 3: think that happened. 500 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 2: Congressman. 501 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,440 Speaker 4: Well, Joe, you raised an excellent point. Let me take 502 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,879 Speaker 4: it backwards. So far as we do not need a 503 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 4: government shutdown, it is always wrong to shut the government down. 504 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 4: That's why I'm still furious with Chuck Schumer for this 505 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,959 Speaker 4: blatant lie, this myth that he perpetrated on the American people. 506 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 4: Everybody in Washington, d C. Democrats and Republicans knew what 507 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,399 Speaker 4: was wrong. They did it for whatever reason. So we 508 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 4: need to keep it open now. The best way to 509 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,639 Speaker 4: keep it open is with a budget of the twelve bills. 510 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,840 Speaker 4: We've got three of the bills done, so we've got 511 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 4: nine left. The reality is I think we can probably 512 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:42,440 Speaker 4: get another six don maybe seven, and then those balance 513 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 4: of bills that perhaps are going to be harder to conference. 514 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,160 Speaker 7: I'll be specific, State and. 515 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 4: Foreign ops, Homeland security, those are harder bills. My bill, 516 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 4: the Energy and Water Bill, is a very non controversial 517 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,120 Speaker 4: build tremendous bipartisan and bi cameral support. 518 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 7: The Senate is supposed to have their version out today. 519 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 4: My version has been out and actually passed in the 520 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,240 Speaker 4: House for months. What I think we'll do is past 521 00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,480 Speaker 4: maybe seven of the twelve, maybe eight of the twelve, 522 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 4: and then the balance of those bills work on a 523 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 4: CR so some type of what we call in DC 524 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:17,119 Speaker 4: a crominabus part continuing resolution. On those field bills we can't, 525 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 4: but let's try to go four all twelve. 526 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 7: And see how many we can do. We've got three down, 527 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 7: nine to go. I'm hopeful. 528 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 2: From all right, fantastic. 529 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 3: I need to ask you about the election that is looming, 530 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 3: a special in your state of Tennessee. December second, to 531 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 3: fill former Representative Mark Green's seat. Democrats are putting a 532 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,280 Speaker 3: lot of money into this, and you might have seen 533 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,120 Speaker 3: some writing at punch Bowl this morning. They're crunching numbers 534 00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 3: here in a world in which Democrats flip that seat 535 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 3: and get a couple of others here, keep Mikey Cheryl's 536 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 3: seat in New Jersey, not to mention the one in Houston, 537 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 3: the late Representative Sylvester Turner's seat. Republicans could have something 538 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 3: like a who seat margin. If this does not go 539 00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,160 Speaker 3: your way, will Tennessee in our remaining moment keep that 540 00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 3: from happening. 541 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,960 Speaker 7: Yes, you're absolutely right looking at that. 542 00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 4: Chad Pergram had a very good article on the entire 543 00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,719 Speaker 4: situation today. Punch Bowl did as well. Let me explain 544 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 4: pretty much where this is. You're absolutely right. 545 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 3: That's gonna be quick, so sorry, sir, sir, just got 546 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 3: to be quick. Sorry, we only have about thirty seconds. 547 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 4: Dam will win in Uston, Van Ips will win in Tennessee, 548 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 4: maybe not by twenty points, he'll beat Afton Baine with ease. 549 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 4: The New Jersey seat will be Democratic, and the Marjorie 550 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 4: Taylor Green will be Republican will be up by probably 551 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 4: two to four narrow margins, but we can govern with 552 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 4: narrow margins. 553 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 2: Political analysis from Chuck Fleischman. I love this. 554 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 3: The Republican Congressman from Tennessee with his take. Thank you Congressman. 555 00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 3: As always, we never even got to nuclear It's a 556 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 3: Monday in Washington. Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg. 557 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 558 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 3: more coming up after this. 559 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 560 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 561 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 562 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 563 00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 1: New York station. 564 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 2: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty. 565 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 3: The Secretary of State describes the peace plan for Ukraine 566 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 3: as a living, breathing document. Every day, with input, he says, 567 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,560 Speaker 3: it changes, and that, of course, was the story. Over 568 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 3: the course of the weekend, the Secretary of State dispatched 569 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,720 Speaker 3: to Geneva to meet with Ukrainian officials about this peace 570 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 3: plan that is still evolving. 571 00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,160 Speaker 2: In fact, revisions were made following. 572 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 3: The Secretary's meeting with Ukraine to make this more favorable, 573 00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 3: more palatable to Kiev a week. Of course, the President 574 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:05,400 Speaker 3: Trump said he wanted this done, putting forth a Thanksgiving deadline. 575 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:08,160 Speaker 3: The Secretary of State walking that back a bit as well, 576 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 3: saying the deadline is that we want to get this 577 00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 3: done as soon as possible. 578 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 2: We'd love it to be Thursday. 579 00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 3: The important point today is that we have made substantial progress. 580 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 3: Progress was the word that came out of this meeting, 581 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:22,880 Speaker 3: with questions remaining about the source of this twenty eight 582 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 3: point plan. Was it in fact drafted with the help 583 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 3: of the Russians. In a tweet on Sunday, the Prime 584 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 3: Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk brought this to the four 585 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 3: saying that he and other leaders are ready to negotiate quote, However, 586 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 3: before we start our work, he wrote, it would be 587 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 3: good to know for sure who is the author of 588 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 3: the plan and where it was created unquote. Much of 589 00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 3: this rides on security guarantees, whether Ukraine must give up 590 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 3: territory or not, and we still need to see exactly 591 00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:58,200 Speaker 3: where this plan stands now following the revisions, the security 592 00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:02,280 Speaker 3: guarantees by the US and by our European allies will 593 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 3: be key to anything moving forward here. With the White 594 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,240 Speaker 3: House invoking at least privately, something along the lines of 595 00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 3: an Article five violation if Ukraine were attacked. It's not 596 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 3: just the polls who are weighing in here, the Lithuanians 597 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 3: as well. Speaking with Bloomberg's Oliver Crook this morning, Lithuania's 598 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 3: Foreign minister, his studius Buttrius, speaking about the prospect of 599 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 3: a security guarantee. 600 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 2: Let's listen together. 601 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 10: We cannot build our security on the hope that Russia 602 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,840 Speaker 10: will keep the promises. They never did, and they do 603 00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:40,920 Speaker 10: not respect the international well what they should you know 604 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,720 Speaker 10: in the upcoming five, ten or twenty years they won't. 605 00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,520 Speaker 10: So that's why we need the credible, working De Turan 606 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 10: system and that it is building the European security with Ukraine, 607 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 10: and it's for us to decide how we will do it. 608 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 10: It's not for the others, and especially not. 609 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 3: For Russia, especially not for Russia, he says, even though 610 00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,800 Speaker 3: Russian fingerprints are all over this peace plan. It's where 611 00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 3: we start our conversation with Angela Stent, senior fellow at 612 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:08,320 Speaker 3: AEI and author of Putin's World, Russia against the West, 613 00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 3: and with the rest Angela, it's great to see you. 614 00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:13,000 Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us. 615 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 3: Could these revisions be made enough that Ukraine in fact 616 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:18,720 Speaker 3: accepts this peace plan. 617 00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 11: Well, there's a lot of noise and confusion about all 618 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,760 Speaker 11: of this, but I mean, I think Ukraine there are 619 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 11: several red lines. It's not going to give up territory 620 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 11: to Russia that Russia doesn't control. And that's why you know, 621 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 11: when you read the draft of the treaty, some of 622 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,280 Speaker 11: it was clearly drafted in Moscow. We can argue about 623 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,080 Speaker 11: how much was and then that it will never be 624 00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:47,280 Speaker 11: able to join NATO. That's really up to NATO, as 625 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 11: the Europeans have pointed out, not to Russia or really 626 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:55,320 Speaker 11: to the United States. It has to reduce the size 627 00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 11: of its armed forces, which are about nine hundred thousand 628 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:04,040 Speaker 11: now two six hundred thousand. And I'm sure there's some 629 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 11: bargaining room there in the European plan, the counterplan to 630 00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,400 Speaker 11: the US Russian one says that this is something that 631 00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,600 Speaker 11: can be discussed. Know that there would be amnesty for 632 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,840 Speaker 11: everyone in this war. Again, from the Ukrainian point of view, 633 00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 11: the devastation that Russia has caused, the loss of life, 634 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,680 Speaker 11: the terror of the assassinations putin anyway has been declared 635 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 11: a war criminal by the international criminal courts. So there 636 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 11: are a number of red lines I think here for Ukraine. 637 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 11: But clearly this is a bargaining process that's going on. 638 00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:38,160 Speaker 11: It's obviously not going to be completed by Thanksgiving. And 639 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,480 Speaker 11: the question, one of the questions for me, is is 640 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 11: Russia going to drag this out now and say it's 641 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:47,160 Speaker 11: interested in the serious negotiation so that it can continue 642 00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 11: to make some advances along the battle lines in the 643 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 11: hope that next year Ukraine will be in a weaker 644 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 11: position than it is now. 645 00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,800 Speaker 3: Well, that would be right out of the Putin playbook. 646 00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,239 Speaker 3: What do you think, Angela about the individuals who have 647 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:03,640 Speaker 3: brought us to this point? We of course know Steve 648 00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:07,719 Speaker 3: Whitcoff has been deeply involved, apparently Jared Kushner, the President's 649 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,920 Speaker 3: son in law as well. But then to see the 650 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,480 Speaker 3: Secretary of State come in with changes in Geneva, are 651 00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:15,239 Speaker 3: they all on the same page or not? 652 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 11: Well, clearly this was drafted by Kirol Dimitriev, who's the 653 00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:24,800 Speaker 11: head of the Sovereign Wealth Fund in Russia, and Stephen Whitcoff. 654 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:28,440 Speaker 11: He visited, he Dimitriev came to the United States. We 655 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,759 Speaker 11: made an exception to grant him a visa even though 656 00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,200 Speaker 11: he's actually not supposed to get one. And he met 657 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:38,799 Speaker 11: in Miami with mister Whitcoff, apparently with Jared Krishna. They 658 00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 11: and they drafted this. But you know, as far as 659 00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:48,240 Speaker 11: we can see, Secretary Rubio was not involved in that drafting. 660 00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 11: And there was this curious thing over the weekend where 661 00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,920 Speaker 11: he had a call where the bipartisan group of senators 662 00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:58,360 Speaker 11: at the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada, saying that 663 00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,279 Speaker 11: he hadn't seen this before, that came from Russia and 664 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,400 Speaker 11: this wasn't an American plan. Then he reversed himself a 665 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,399 Speaker 11: couple of hours later and said it was an American plan. 666 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,120 Speaker 11: He was there yesterday in Geneva. But I think the 667 00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:14,840 Speaker 11: impression one gets is of lack of coordination within the 668 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:19,399 Speaker 11: administration about this agreement and who really wrote it. 669 00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,759 Speaker 3: Not so much on the same page, Angela Stent, I 670 00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:27,000 Speaker 3: saw you in the New York Times yesterday experts seven 671 00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,480 Speaker 3: experts on how to actually end the war in Ukraine, 672 00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:33,600 Speaker 3: and you brought your prescription, which is fascinating to read. 673 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:33,879 Speaker 2: Here. 674 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,320 Speaker 3: Sanctions are not enough, you say Ukraine needs to be 675 00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,560 Speaker 3: able to purchase more weapons to convince Putin. He will 676 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,000 Speaker 3: not win on the battlefield, and you go along to say, 677 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,280 Speaker 3: even if the Europeans were able to provide a stabilization 678 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:49,960 Speaker 3: force without US backup, that force would be constrained in 679 00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:53,680 Speaker 3: what it can do. So what is the credible security 680 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,400 Speaker 3: guarantee in your eyes? 681 00:36:56,719 --> 00:37:00,120 Speaker 11: So a credible security guarantee would be, if the US 682 00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:04,120 Speaker 11: is serious about it, an Article five type guarantee. But 683 00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,440 Speaker 11: that of course begs the question, well, if you're going 684 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,520 Speaker 11: to give it the same guarantee that you give NATO, 685 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,680 Speaker 11: why not admit Ukraine to NATO. But obviously that's off 686 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:13,680 Speaker 11: the cards at the moment. But it would have to 687 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:17,279 Speaker 11: be credible and the way, we don't know how this 688 00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:20,080 Speaker 11: is being formulated from the US side in this current 689 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 11: peace agreement. But you know previous guarantees didn't work. We 690 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:28,120 Speaker 11: all signed a memorandum in nineteen ninety four when Ukraine 691 00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:31,040 Speaker 11: gave up its nuclear weapons to come to its assistance 692 00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,799 Speaker 11: if it were again invaded, and nobody did so. I 693 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 11: think you really have to have a guarantee where you 694 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,359 Speaker 11: can really believe that the US would back up its 695 00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:46,520 Speaker 11: European allies and if Russia were to reinvade, would use 696 00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:51,280 Speaker 11: military force to get Russia to go back into Russia 697 00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,120 Speaker 11: and leave Ukraine. 698 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 3: What do you make of the language from the Secretary 699 00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,600 Speaker 3: of State that now this must be seen, the revisions 700 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:03,960 Speaker 3: must be seen and reviewed by Moscow. I think the 701 00:38:04,000 --> 00:38:07,920 Speaker 3: line was that, of course Moscow, that of course Russia 702 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:12,840 Speaker 3: gets a vote. Why are we so careful in dealing 703 00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:16,920 Speaker 3: with the invading country in this case because we. 704 00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,000 Speaker 11: Have a president who really wants to improve ties to Russia, 705 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:24,440 Speaker 11: wants to reset relations with Russia once this war to end. 706 00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,240 Speaker 11: He believes it wouldn't have started had he been president 707 00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,480 Speaker 11: in twenty twenty two, and wants to get on with 708 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:36,320 Speaker 11: business deals with Russia, with maybe another nuclear arms control 709 00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:39,640 Speaker 11: agreement with Russia. And this is I think, why we're 710 00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:44,080 Speaker 11: taking Russia into account. But we're treating the aggressor somehow 711 00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:47,760 Speaker 11: better than we're treating the victim. 712 00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:51,359 Speaker 3: I've got the Army secretary in Kiev. Why is Dan 713 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:54,520 Speaker 3: Briskoll part of this, but the Secretary of Defense Pete 714 00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:56,040 Speaker 3: Hegseth is nowhere to be found. 715 00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:01,640 Speaker 11: Well, here we get into maybe the internal politics of 716 00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:05,640 Speaker 11: what's happening in this administration. Apparently General Driscoll is quite 717 00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,799 Speaker 11: close to the Vice President J. D. Vance, who is 718 00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:15,400 Speaker 11: advancing his potential candidacy, maybe to be the next Secretary 719 00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:18,520 Speaker 11: of War. That's one explanation for it. 720 00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:24,960 Speaker 3: Okay, interesting, So what are the odds that President Trump 721 00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:29,080 Speaker 3: and Vladimir Putin get together with Victor Orbon and Hungary 722 00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:32,439 Speaker 3: for a summit. If they hammer out a peace plan 723 00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:36,760 Speaker 3: here that Moscow feels is acceptable, is that the next step? 724 00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:40,520 Speaker 7: I think that would have been one of them. 725 00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,839 Speaker 11: I think what we now have to see is, as 726 00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:45,640 Speaker 11: the Secretary of State said, this is a living document. 727 00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:51,600 Speaker 11: They're still making revisions to it. And if you know, 728 00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,640 Speaker 11: they believe that they this is the best offer they 729 00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,799 Speaker 11: can make. And if the Russians are willing to sign on, 730 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,960 Speaker 11: because the Russians will have to make some compromises too, 731 00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,680 Speaker 11: which has to do with the use of their frozen assets, 732 00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:08,120 Speaker 11: then I think we could see a summit in Budapest. 733 00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,600 Speaker 11: I wouldn't want to give a timetable to it, but 734 00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:11,640 Speaker 11: that's a possibility. 735 00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,960 Speaker 3: Wow, we could see I guess President Zelenski here in 736 00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:17,120 Speaker 3: Washington first. 737 00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:19,040 Speaker 2: The reporting is he could make a. 738 00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,480 Speaker 3: Visit as soon as this week if this comes together. 739 00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:22,799 Speaker 2: Is that a smart move for him? 740 00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:23,120 Speaker 7: Now? 741 00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:26,080 Speaker 3: Angela, it seems to be what one out of four 742 00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:29,080 Speaker 3: visits go pretty well for him. At the White House, 743 00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:31,080 Speaker 3: he found himself on the other side of the Cabinet 744 00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:34,680 Speaker 3: room table last time he was here with reporters crowding 745 00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,960 Speaker 3: behind him, and didn't exactly get the treatment that Victor 746 00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:38,640 Speaker 3: Orbon got. 747 00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:43,919 Speaker 11: Why come to Washington, because, I mean Ukraine, Ukraine really 748 00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,040 Speaker 11: doesn't want to lose what is left of US support, 749 00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:50,279 Speaker 11: and we're not really giving them financial support anymore, but 750 00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:53,440 Speaker 11: we're still allowing Europeans to buy weapons from US that 751 00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,600 Speaker 11: they then give to Ukraine. It's called the Pearl program. 752 00:40:56,640 --> 00:41:00,160 Speaker 11: He wants that, and he doesn't. I don't think he 753 00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,680 Speaker 11: wants to antagonize President Trump any further. But you know, 754 00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,640 Speaker 11: the last time we were here, he was there, as 755 00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:09,359 Speaker 11: you said, there were he was asked tough questions. But 756 00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:11,799 Speaker 11: on the other hand, you know, you can see the 757 00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:16,360 Speaker 11: those of the two leaders, the two presidents smiling. And 758 00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:19,760 Speaker 11: then we have this complete reversal from President Trump tweeting 759 00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,839 Speaker 11: out yesterday that Ukraine was ungrateful, using really the same 760 00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,320 Speaker 11: words that he used during that disastrous Oval Office meeting 761 00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,680 Speaker 11: in February. So if Siansky did come here, it would 762 00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:33,560 Speaker 11: be really to re enforce the fact that Ukraine is 763 00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:37,160 Speaker 11: willing to sign a PECE steel to have an immediate 764 00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:41,240 Speaker 11: cease fire along the current lines of contact, in other words, 765 00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:44,799 Speaker 11: not seeding territory to Russia that Russia doesn't control. And 766 00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:46,719 Speaker 11: that's why he would come here. But I'm not sure 767 00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:49,200 Speaker 11: that it would be that advisable at the moment. I'm 768 00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,879 Speaker 11: sure that he would wait and see how this now 769 00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:57,760 Speaker 11: plays out. With the meeting yesterday between the United States Ukraine, 770 00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:00,879 Speaker 11: and then there were some Europeans there, and there's also 771 00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:05,160 Speaker 11: a European plan which Secretary Rubiossity hasn't read yet, but 772 00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:07,600 Speaker 11: maybe taking some of that into account too. 773 00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, it does seem interesting how we always get back 774 00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,719 Speaker 3: to square one on the rhetoric here. It looks like 775 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,520 Speaker 3: the gears are turning once again on Russia, sanctions on 776 00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,200 Speaker 3: Capitol Hill, angelusten and our remaining moment or is so 777 00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:24,360 Speaker 3: I wonder if you see that hastening the acceptance of 778 00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:28,320 Speaker 3: a peace plan. Is that motivating Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin? 779 00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:33,399 Speaker 7: So I'm afraid you just cut out. 780 00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:34,600 Speaker 11: I didn't hear your question. 781 00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:38,279 Speaker 3: The prospect of sanctions in our remaining moment, will that 782 00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:39,399 Speaker 3: hasten a piece deal? 783 00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:45,920 Speaker 11: Yeah? I think, I mean that's the intention of it, certainly, 784 00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:48,919 Speaker 11: to put more pressure on the Russians. There is that yeah, 785 00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:52,200 Speaker 11: Senate bill that could be signed any moment in President 786 00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,719 Speaker 11: Trump could sign it too, as to get the Russians 787 00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,759 Speaker 11: to seriously sit at the table. I don't know how 788 00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:01,359 Speaker 11: effective that will be, but set me the intent of it. 789 00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:04,799 Speaker 3: Well, we'll see if it goes anywhere. Angela, thank you 790 00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:07,160 Speaker 3: for joining us. It's been some time since we had 791 00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,160 Speaker 3: a chance to speak with Angela Stent. The book is 792 00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,840 Speaker 3: Putin's world, Russia against the West and with the rest 793 00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:16,440 Speaker 3: senior fellow at AEI. We'll keep tabs on this story 794 00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,560 Speaker 3: that could develop again today with the Secretary of State 795 00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:22,200 Speaker 3: back in the United States following his trip to Geneva 796 00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:26,120 Speaker 3: and revisions that are actively being made to the Peace Plan. 797 00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:31,320 Speaker 3: Breaking news as well, James call me Letitia, James charges drop, 798 00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,319 Speaker 3: the indictments have been thrown out against both of them, 799 00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:38,400 Speaker 3: and a story that we're still getting our heads around here. 800 00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:41,880 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 801 00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,600 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 802 00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:48,279 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 803 00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,600 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at New Timeeastern 804 00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:53,400 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.