1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 2: Riccardo Housman is definitive on his Venezuela. Riccardo, I want 3 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 2: to go back before your acclaim at Harvard, before your 4 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: public service decades ago, to your Venezuela. How did the 5 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 2: Houseman family get from a World War two Europe over 6 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 2: to Venezuela. How did your family emigrate to Venezuela a 7 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: lifetime ago. 8 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: Well, a Jewish family, my father, they both went through 9 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: the Holocaust. My father lost both his parents. He arrived 10 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: at Venezuela at age seventeen with some He managed to 11 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: get himself to Spain, and then everybody in Spain thought 12 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: that Hitler was going to take over Spain, so he 13 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: ended up with another relative in Venezuela. And my mother 14 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: lived through the the German occupation in Belgium and she 15 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: was freed by the USGIS in September nineteen forty four. 16 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 1: She was living with a Catholic family in a village 17 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: in the south of Belgium until they were liberated. She 18 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: lived for over a year thereafter after, as you know, 19 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: they got the papers to go to the train station 20 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 1: in nineteen forty two, So that's That's how they ended 21 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: up in Venezuela. And in Venezuela they had a you know, 22 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 1: they created a really really nice life for themselves. And 23 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: so when I grew up, Venezuela was this heaven and 24 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: well I had this image of Europe as this horrible 25 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: place where my parents had covered from right, I. 26 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: Look Professor Housman and against this is part of the story, 27 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 2: folks from Venezuela's at the tip of oargin China. Your 28 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 2: economist essay written yesterday for Zeniment is absolutely scathing. You 29 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 2: say the President of the United States is quote delusional. 30 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 2: What does President Trump get wrong? 31 00:02:11,600 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 1: Well, he thinks that extracting oil from the ground is 32 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: a technical issue. But extracting oil from the ground, if 33 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 1: it was a technical issue and as well, would be 34 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: a powerhouse. But the reason why oil production in Venezuela collapsed, 35 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: that so many other things collapsed, is because oil is 36 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: a long term investment proposition. You have to part with 37 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 1: a lot of money and wait until you know you 38 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: get a cash flow to recover that money over a 39 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 1: very long period of time. And in that long period 40 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: of time, you have to be assured that you have 41 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:51,639 Speaker 1: some property rights that are going to be respected. And 42 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: if he thinks that right now, he's going to recover 43 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: oil production because he's going to tell us major companies 44 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 1: to go out and part with billions of dollars in 45 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: Venezuela in the context of an illegitimate government because Madula 46 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 1: stole an election. But this woman who's now president of Venezuela, 47 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: she didn't even win a pretend to win an election. 48 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: She was appointed by a guy who stole an election. 49 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 1: And he's going to get concessions that have no approval 50 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: in law by any any national assembly that was elected 51 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: by anybody. And you would expect at the moment they 52 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: will go back to democracy, that any of those conditions 53 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: are going to be respected by a new by a 54 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: new political majority. So I think that there is the 55 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: Democracy is not a goal to be put after economic recovery. 56 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: Democracy is an instrument of economic recovery. It's the way 57 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: of telling Venezuelans your rights will be protected. Go back 58 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 1: and and and and you know, dream go. 59 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 2: Back to You knew as a kid RICARDA Houston with 60 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 2: us of Carver University. Folks were thrilled that he could 61 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: be with the Shannon O'Neil coming up We welcome all 62 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 2: of you around the world. Please subscribe YouTube Paul and 63 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 2: I humbled by the digital success this year. Paul Sweeney 64 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 2: with Ricardo Housman, Professor. 65 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 3: Do we know or what can you tell us about 66 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 3: what the average Venezuelan really on the ground once from 67 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 3: this government going forward or from any government? 68 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 1: Well, I mean Venezuelans voted massively in favor of a 69 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: change of direction. Right they when they were allowed to 70 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,839 Speaker 1: have a primary that the government tried to prevent. Well, 71 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 1: Maria Corina Machalo won with ninety plus percent of the 72 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 1: vote when she was not allowed to run and she 73 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: anointed somebody to run instead. They voted. This guy won 74 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: with a margin of forty points, and he didn't want 75 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,840 Speaker 1: buy more because they didn't not let us Venizuant's abroad 76 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: vote and they did not let three million young Venezuelans 77 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 1: to register. Had that happened, we would have won with 78 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: an even larger margin. So Venezuelans are unified politically in 79 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: a new direction. If you allowed Venezuelants to choose, they 80 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: would choose a very competitive legal framework for oil, and 81 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 1: they would engineer on oil boom. We don't need a 82 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: you know, American help to engineer an oil boom, because 83 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 1: the world is full of oil companies that would want 84 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: to create back into Venezuela under the right conditions, and 85 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 1: we have a political majority to create the right conditions. 86 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 1: But this system that they have described right now, it's 87 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: not workable. It's something that works on one on a 88 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: day to day basis. That they're saying, well, we leave 89 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: the same bad guys that were in power before, the 90 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: guys who are indicted. I mean the guys who are 91 00:05:56,040 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 1: in the same indictment as Nicolas Maluru is the Minister 92 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: of Defense and the other one is the Minister of 93 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: the Internal Police. So it's the same guys. We're there 94 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,640 Speaker 1: and they pretend to say, well, we are going to 95 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:12,600 Speaker 1: tell them what to do and they're going to do 96 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: our bidding. But when they say our bidding, they think 97 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 1: that they can get a recovery of Venezuela without empowering 98 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 1: Venezuelan citizens with rights. That's not going to work. 99 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 3: Professor Issert, do you think if there's a scenario where 100 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 3: the Trump administration can in fact exert control over this 101 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,600 Speaker 3: government like I think they think they can. 102 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,839 Speaker 1: Well, I mean what they think they can is to 103 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 1: say either you do what I tell you, or I 104 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 1: kill you because I have drones. I don't want to 105 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: put boots on the ground. I have drones, I have missiles. 106 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: I can kill you. So you better do what we want. 107 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 2: But when they interrupt Ricardo, but Paul nailed it with 108 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 2: that question. What this is about is in is direct 109 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 2: community violence, whether it's Cuba or Venezuela. I mean President 110 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 2: Trump in his advocates have to decide if they want 111 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 2: to participate with people who are violent. How do you 112 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 2: want in your Venezuela? How do we move forward to 113 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 2: a constructive end? What's the Houseman process? In January, February, 114 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 2: in March of this year. 115 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: Well, you want to empower the people who have strategic 116 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 1: interests that are aligned with you, and that is all 117 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 1: the Venezuela Democrats. So this idea that you can do 118 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: your thing without having to deal with the organized Venezuelan 119 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: opposition that, under enormously difficult situations, was able to win 120 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: an election. You want, you want to you want to 121 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 1: empower them to help you. Do you want the strategic 122 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 1: aligance with them? But you don't want to hear this 123 00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:03,560 Speaker 1: dismissive description of my Akorina Machau as somebody who's not 124 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: respected in Venezuela. I challenge you to mention somebody in 125 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: the world who's more respected than Manrie Akorina Machau. Obviously, 126 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 1: she's super respected in Venezuela. That's why she can win 127 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 1: elections in Venezuela. Now that's different from saying she has 128 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: the command over troops. 129 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 2: We're gonna have share O'Neill with this, Professor Hausman. But 130 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 2: let me ask you this Viscal. This came up, Paul 131 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 2: outside of the dining room table. Where does the military 132 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 2: of Venezuela fit in? I mean, if I look at 133 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:34,679 Speaker 2: the Philippines and the shift from du Terte to the 134 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 2: younger Marcos, the military played a part there. Instability is 135 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 2: the military of your Venezuela stable or unstable? 136 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: The military of Venezuela is led by a narco terrorist 137 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: organization and they're still in power. But below that, there's 138 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 1: a lot of people who would be willing, who would 139 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: want to go back to a more democratic regime under 140 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: civilian rule, but they cannot. They are not allowed to organize, 141 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: they're being spied by the military secret police, and they're 142 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 1: being put in prison. They're being tortured. So what we need, 143 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: if if Trump is going to demand something from from 144 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: Delci Rodriguez, is that she she delivered Geosdalo Cabago, the 145 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: head of the police, Vladimir Padrino, the Minister of Defense. 146 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: Those are the heads of the Cartel of the Sons, 147 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,439 Speaker 1: the Cartel de los Soles. They are the narco traffickers. 148 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: They are now in charge of the country and they 149 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 1: are the ones who yesterday put in prison twelve journalists, 150 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: so that the number of political prisoners in Venezuela is 151 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: going up, not down. Okay, So you want you want 152 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 1: to fix the country, you need to get rid of 153 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: these leaders, this corrupt, criminal leadership that is in control 154 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:10,319 Speaker 1: of army and to empower the public of the army 155 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 1: to go back to civilian rules. 156 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:14,959 Speaker 2: Paul get one more question from professor. 157 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 3: Professor, is a scenario where the people of Venezuela rise 158 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 3: up and force change. 159 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 1: I think that you know, everybody now is willing to 160 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,319 Speaker 1: give a line of credit because you know, we've tried 161 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:30,679 Speaker 1: so hard to get rid of Maluro and we weren't 162 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,559 Speaker 1: able to do it on our own. So everybody is 163 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: very happy that that the US was able to get 164 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:42,839 Speaker 1: rid of Maluro. But and and they're hoping that this 165 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 1: is the beginning of a good process. But you know, 166 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: the statements of Trump after you know, at Madlago and 167 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 1: afterwards were extremely disempowering and concerning. They described a vision 168 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 1: for the future that I do not think it's going 169 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: to work, and I don't think that Venezuelans are going 170 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 1: to feel that that is there is the right prime. 171 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 2: Professor Hausman, thank you so much for leading our coverage 172 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 2: this morning. Ricarda houseman with the Kennedy School, Harvard, and 173 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 2: of course looked to his piercing essay and the economist