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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game?

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough?

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Speaker 3: There were running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smooth, so sweet, sidsisting just glorious extatution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent.

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Speaker 2: Of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop of mind of buddy?

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Speaker 2: And that's why you see yours beautiful tiers. Look at

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Speaker 2: his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying the one.

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Speaker 1: It's left to one, the wide eyed drill pibus how

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Speaker 1: old earth pick that happens? Hello, everyone, Welcome back to

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Speaker 1: Wonder Goal, the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: My name is Michael Liba. In just a moment, I'll

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Speaker 1: be joined by my friends colleagues, co hosts, my betting

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Speaker 1: best friends, BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. But before I

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Speaker 1: bring in those two gentlemen, a reminder that Wonder Goal

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Speaker 1: is presented to you by Bet three six five, the

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Speaker 1: world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign Up with promo code Action

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Speaker 1: to get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar in any game,

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Speaker 1: get two hundred dollars free Anthony BJ the Premier League

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Speaker 1: came back, felt like everything was kind of just as

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Speaker 1: is ever, Dinners still terrible city and Arsenal.

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Speaker 2: Every game went over. It was great, exactly fun Yeah, fun.

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Speaker 1: It was like the World Cup never happened. Yeah. So

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Speaker 1: maybe this is the weekend of chaos, and we'll start

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Speaker 1: potentially this weekend of chaos with a delicious matchup twelve

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Speaker 1: thirty on Saturday, a title six pointer between Brighton plus

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Speaker 1: two fifty and Arsenal plus one ten. Here is plus

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Speaker 1: to sixty, this game taking place on the South coast VJA,

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Speaker 1: your Arsenal Gunners. They'll be traveling as a favorite. But

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Speaker 1: I think that this number is a little too short

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Speaker 1: on Arsenal. I like, I like Brighton here, what about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I look, I'm not gonna bet against Arsenal. I

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Speaker 2: generally do believe that Arsenal is a tad over valued,

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Speaker 2: maybe not as much as maybe you two think, but

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Speaker 2: I actually like both team to score no and plus

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Speaker 2: one twenty five. Arsenal once again put in a fantastic

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Speaker 2: defensive performance against west Ham. There was a very very

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Speaker 2: questionable penalty. He actually wasn't even question but it was

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Speaker 2: never a penalty. There was never any contact, so west

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Speaker 2: Ham goes up one nothing. It kind of changes how

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Speaker 2: the match played out. West Ham only created point twenty

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Speaker 2: five non penalty expected goals throughout the match, so Arsenal

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Speaker 2: is once again, you know, number one in expected goals

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Speaker 2: allowed around zero point seventy five per ninety and the

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Speaker 2: biggest thing in this match and if you want to

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Speaker 2: bet Brighton in this match, Desserbe has been very very aggressive.

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Speaker 2: He's obviously plays a very similar style to Potter, but

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Speaker 2: the counter pressing, the way they possessed the ball, it's

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Speaker 2: very very aggressive trying to move the ball the pitch,

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Speaker 2: which would concern me with losing the ball to a

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Speaker 2: good pressing team like Arsenal. Now, Brighton has been running

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Speaker 2: pretty hot offensively, like their last six matches their twelve

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Speaker 2: goals of a five point six expected. Against Southampton they

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Speaker 2: scored three goals. I understand one was an own goal,

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Speaker 2: but only off of point six expected. And the flip

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Speaker 2: side of that coin is though Brighton has been very

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Speaker 2: very good defensively, like they're a point nine to one

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Speaker 2: non penalty expected goal is allowed per ninety. Their third

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Speaker 2: big scoring chances expected threat allowed and touches in the

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Speaker 2: penalty alert, touches in the penalty area allowed, So this

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Speaker 2: is an absolutely legit defense that can hold Arsenal in check.

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Speaker 2: Game stay truly doesn't matter though, Like I, if Brighton's

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Speaker 2: able to score first, then Arsenal has played more aggressive

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Speaker 2: of the match opens up a little more with how

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Speaker 2: deserve he wants to play. But generally Arsenal when they

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Speaker 2: do have a lead, they are able to kill games

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Speaker 2: like they're only allowing around one expected goal for niney

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Speaker 2: when playing with the leads. So I think of Arsenal,

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Speaker 2: I think this is a good match potentially for maybe

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Speaker 2: Arsenal to win nil. They've Arsenal. What the funny part

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Speaker 2: about this is playing both teams to score Noel. Arsenal

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Speaker 2: has scored in every single Premier League match this season.

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Speaker 2: But again I think the price is just a little

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Speaker 2: bit too low on this, so I haven't projected at

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Speaker 2: minus one oh six, so like both teams to score

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Speaker 2: NOLL plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Arsenal did look great. I had the distinct pleasure of

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Speaker 1: watching a couple of big tickets in Brentford and west

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Speaker 1: Ham blow leads, but that west Ham game always felt

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Speaker 1: like it felt like Arsenal was up three to one

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Speaker 1: even though they were down one nil. So I do

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Speaker 1: tip my cap to Arsenal. I thought they were really

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Speaker 1: good out of the break, and they're they've been awesome

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Speaker 1: all season. But bright look really good. This is a

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Speaker 1: really good team, but they're are big. We're very set

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Speaker 1: home and like you said that, I made this argument

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Speaker 1: for west Ham last week about just the defense being

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Speaker 1: able to contain Arsenal and kind of turn the game

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Speaker 1: into a coin flip book. The same can be said

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Speaker 1: applied to Brighton, and Brighton's better than west Ham going forward.

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Speaker 1: So I know the numbers not nearly as big, but

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Speaker 1: they're at home deserve He's best manager in the world,

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Speaker 1: So how can you not back the Seagulls here. It's

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Speaker 1: just a bloated price on Arsenal Anthony your boys, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I agree. I mean I think if you follow me

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Speaker 3: the app. I actually bet this game before Arsenal and

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Speaker 3: Brighton even played on Boxing Day because I thought that

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Speaker 3: was number was wrong and I was waiting for the

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Speaker 3: right spot to fade Arsenal. I thought that the Hammers

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Speaker 3: weren't a great matchup. Arsenal has dominated that and I

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Speaker 3: didn't think the Hammers would do enough to disrupt Arsenal's

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Speaker 3: possession and ended up being the case. I mean, they

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Speaker 3: just gave out of guard way too much time on

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Speaker 3: the back and he eventually destroyed them. Even though you

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Speaker 3: know the first goal comes off of like a fluke,

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Speaker 3: Arsenal was clearly the better team and deserved to win

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Speaker 3: and dominate the possession of the chances. I disagree on

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Speaker 3: the penalty. I did think it was a penalty he

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Speaker 3: never made. It's a classic example players players get normally

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Speaker 3: not rewarded when they don't dive. If he just goes

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Speaker 3: over after the first contact, everybody says, oh, yeah, he

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Speaker 3: clipped them, penalty, But because he tried to stay up,

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Speaker 3: it makes it look like it was less contact. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't matter. Deserved to win for Arsenal. But I

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Speaker 3: do think if you go back, the first half of

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Speaker 3: that game did show kind of the impact of not

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Speaker 3: having Gabrielle Jesus and how he is so much better

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Speaker 3: at linking to play and coming short and connecting than

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Speaker 3: Nikatya is. Nikatya is much more of a poacher type

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Speaker 3: striker than he is a passer, and so I think

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Speaker 3: you get less build up ability there, and I think

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Speaker 3: Brighton can do a much better job of kind of

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Speaker 3: disrupting Oda Garden, disrupting the time on the ball for

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Speaker 3: the for the midfield players of Arsenal. Arsenal third and

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Speaker 3: expected threat differential, it's pretty impressive. Second is Liverpool first,

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Speaker 3: of course, the city you think they dominate that, Brighton's fourth,

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Speaker 3: they're right behind them, so they've been just as dominant

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Speaker 3: and tilting the field on their opponents and and being competitive.

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Speaker 3: And the Gunners have only been about a half goal

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Speaker 3: better than Brighton this season, so you know, you factor

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Speaker 3: in the home field advantage that's come with the prem

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Speaker 3: and it's been the strongest home field advantage in the

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Speaker 3: last decade across the league. Brighton is clearly undervalued here

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Speaker 3: my view. The one thing that does concern me. Arsenal

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Speaker 3: really good on set pieces. They're one of the best

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Speaker 3: teams that created the most expected goals off of set pieces.

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Speaker 3: Brighton has struggled in the last you know, four months

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Speaker 3: on set pieces and really since Potter left it's gone

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Speaker 3: down a little bit, so that's been a vulnerability for them.

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Speaker 3: But I still like to be the seagulls at home.

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Speaker 3: I like the Bees later too, but at home team

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Speaker 3: and it's something we do as.

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Speaker 1: There's there's also a pair of game of to hear.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. We'll start with the Liverpool match,

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Speaker 1: even though it's the three pm kickoff, because I got

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Speaker 1: to say, how quick until Jurgen Klopp complains about to

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Speaker 1: fix your pile up here as if they're the only

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Speaker 1: team dealing with it. They're playing three pm on Friday

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Speaker 1: minus three thirty four home to Leicester City, who are

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Speaker 1: eight to one on the money line coming off just

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Speaker 1: a no show effort against Newcastle. The draw is five

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Speaker 1: to one here at Bet three six five. I could

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Speaker 1: see an argument that you should just set it and

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Speaker 1: forget it with Liverpool on like a spread because I

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Speaker 1: see goals in this match, and I don't see many

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Speaker 1: of them coming from Leicester, but the price just seems

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Speaker 1: a little crazy. And had Lesser not just gotten walked

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Speaker 1: by Newcastle, like if you just kind of flipped those

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Speaker 1: these these games, you might get a better opportunity. You

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Speaker 1: would have got a better opportunity to go against the

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Speaker 1: Foxes with Liverpool, but you know that's not what's happening here.

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Speaker 1: So I think this one's a pass for me, it

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Speaker 1: would be Liverpool like kind of spread or nothing. BJ

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Speaker 1: you think we might see some bushels of goals though.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do, like over three and a half goals

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Speaker 2: at plus one ten. You know, Liverpool struggles this season

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Speaker 2: like has really put a damper on how good their

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Speaker 2: offense truly has been. Like they're averaging one point seventy

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Speaker 2: nine non penalty expected goals for ninety that's point zero

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Speaker 2: one behind Manchester City. They have created the most big

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Speaker 2: scoring chances in eighteen in their last nine matches, and

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Speaker 2: they're averaging almost forty touches in the penalty area. Like

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Speaker 2: this is an absolute legit offense that yes doesn't have

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Speaker 2: diego Jo, it's they're probably not gonna have Femino. They're

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Speaker 2: obviously without Luis ds for a while, but they have

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Speaker 2: plenty of attackers and then Cody gap posts coming in January.

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Speaker 2: But Leicester defensively has been really really bad. I mean

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Speaker 2: they were very bad against Newcastle there seventeenth overall and

185
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Speaker 2: expected goals allowed. Like Danny Ward, Yeah, he had a

186
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Speaker 2: little bit of a positive regression come back, but let's

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Speaker 2: be honest, he's still one of the worst goalkeepers in

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Speaker 2: the Premier League and Lester. The big thing about that

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Speaker 2: is we saw some positive aggression for them defensively, and

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Speaker 2: I think the reason for that is because they stopped

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Speaker 2: playing really really good teams, Like if you look through

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Speaker 2: their their schedule, they played a lot of the Big

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Speaker 2: six up in the first part of the season and

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Speaker 2: then they played the board myths, the Crystal Palaces and

195
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Speaker 2: those type of teams in the bottom half so far

196
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Speaker 2: the season against the top half the table, Lester's allowing

197
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Speaker 2: one point eight expected goals per ninety against the top half.

198
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Speaker 2: And I mentioned this last episode, but Lester, you know,

199
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Speaker 2: you look at their offensive passes per defensive action numbers

200
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Speaker 2: and you'll see their third right now, and they're like, oh,

201
00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,120
Speaker 2: that's very impressive. But when they have to face good

202
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Speaker 2: pressing teams like they tend to struggle. And it happened

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Speaker 2: against Newcastle. The penalty to open the match came off

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Speaker 2: of a high turnover. Newcastle forced eleven of those in

205
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Speaker 2: that match. Liverpool's high press doesn't really have the same

206
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Speaker 2: bite that it's had in years past, but I mean

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Speaker 2: they're still top six and high turnovers and I mean lesser.

208
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Speaker 2: You know, if this if Liverpool scores first and Lester

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Speaker 2: it's going to get out of hand for them because

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Speaker 2: they are allowing close to one point seven expected goals

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Speaker 2: when playing from behind. And the flip side of that

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Speaker 2: coin is Liverpool's defense just really hasn't been that good.

213
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Speaker 2: Like they're allowing one point twenty five non pillage spectacles

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Speaker 2: for ninety that's that's tenth in the Premier League. Like

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Speaker 2: they've allowed seventeen big scoring chances. And one thing to

216
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Speaker 2: look out for is Allison is running ridiculously hot in net,

217
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Speaker 2: like he's at a plus eight point three post shot

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Speaker 2: XG plus minus. So I think this match has a

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Speaker 2: ton of goals in it. I have three point four

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Speaker 2: goals projected, so I like the price for three and

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Speaker 2: a half at plus one ten.

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Speaker 1: The other Friday kickoff, west Ham are plus one oh

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Speaker 1: five at home the Bees Brentford plus two fifty, the

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Speaker 1: draws plus two sixty. It looks like a classic Brentford spout.

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Speaker 1: The price maybe not big enough, but it would be

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Speaker 1: Bees or nothing for me here, Anthony, anything for you

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Speaker 1: west Ham and Brentford.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't have a ton here either. Brentford. I

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Speaker 3: thought we're very impressive against Spurs but I thought that

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Speaker 3: had more to do with Spurs being poor than Brentford

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Speaker 3: being really good. I don't have much between these two

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Speaker 3: teams in my power ratings. I think that the Hammers

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Speaker 3: do rely a lot on set pieces to create chances,

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Speaker 3: and their attack has still not been good this season,

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Speaker 3: Like there is positive regression coming, but they've still been poor.

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Speaker 3: And the Bees don't concede big scoring chances and they

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Speaker 3: don't concede much off of set pieces, and so I

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Speaker 3: don't know that the Hammers get enough shots. There's not

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Speaker 3: enough shots in this lineup right now for me to

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Speaker 3: trust them to get margin his favorite, So this will

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Speaker 3: stay away from me better.

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Speaker 1: Spot, Yeah, exactly. Well, we'll save Rerentford for a little later.

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Speaker 1: At seven thirty am on Saturday, Wolverhampton hosting Manchester United

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Speaker 1: Wolves plus three twenty at pat three sixty five United

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Speaker 1: odds on on the road minus went eighteen. The draw

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Speaker 1: is plus two sixty Wolves coming off famous victory on

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Speaker 1: the road at Goudison Park in the ninety fifth minute.

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Speaker 1: Not fun for me at all, Fun for Anthony, who

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Speaker 1: backed up the brink struck put the house on Wolverhampton

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Speaker 1: in that game and got bailed out on the money line.

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Speaker 1: Who's lucky. That was a lucky win for Wolves. Little

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Speaker 1: Potagy though he looked great in his tight I don't

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Speaker 1: know what like turtleneck and tight pants. It's nice to

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Speaker 1: have another manager, like a handsome manager in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: And he really looked great in his get up. Can't

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Speaker 1: wait to see what he wears in his home debut.

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Speaker 1: But from a betting standpoint, BJA, it's really kind of

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Speaker 1: hard to get involved here because it'll take I think

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Speaker 1: it'll just take some time for Wolves to sort out there,

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Speaker 1: sort out going forward. They didn't look too dangerous against Everton.

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Speaker 1: It was more of Everden shooting themselves on the foot

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Speaker 1: than Wolverhampton creating.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I think the price here on United

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Speaker 2: is finally I think the market's finally appropriately pricing them.

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Speaker 2: You know, this is the type of price we were

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Speaker 2: seeing earlier on in the season when they went to

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Speaker 2: Brentford and when they were actually you know, the Manchester

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Speaker 2: United team that was struggling well, now they're starting reserved,

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Speaker 2: they're starting to play better. I know, you know, I've

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Speaker 2: said a lot of bad things about Manchester United. I'm

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Speaker 2: starting to change my tune a little bit. But they

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Speaker 2: looked good against Dottingham for us like they were.

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Speaker 1: That's all times.

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Speaker 2: There will be times to fany fade Manchester United. I

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Speaker 2: really don't think, uh this is the spot here. I

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Speaker 2: think I think it's honestly appropriately priced, like I have

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Speaker 2: United projected at plus twenty eighteen, So I mean, if

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Speaker 2: they get steamed hard, then yeah, I'll take a look

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Speaker 2: at Wolves. But it's just so hard to get involved

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Speaker 2: with the Wolves. I know Anthony loves them. I only

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Speaker 2: thinks they're the best offense in the world, but I mean,

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Speaker 2: they just take so many shots, are outside of the box,

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Speaker 2: and it's just that they're going to try to cross

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Speaker 2: United to death and it's just not going to work

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Speaker 2: and it's just going to be a very sluggish match.

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Speaker 2: So I am passing. I'll United. I'll probably win to

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Speaker 2: nothing and I'll be happy I stayed away. But no,

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Speaker 2: this is a pass for me.

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Speaker 3: Teny am.

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Speaker 1: Now we'll start.

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Speaker 3: I want to I want to weigh in all right,

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Speaker 3: way in, way in.

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Speaker 1: I want to.

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Speaker 3: I want to take a victory lap because uh, you know,

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Speaker 3: I was slandered for my Wolves attack Hate Love and

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Speaker 3: we scored two goals, we catch the first half team total,

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Speaker 3: and I should have had some money line but didn't

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Speaker 3: actually have any because I'm a coward. But that was

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Speaker 3: just a beautiful, beautiful end to the match. Michael, I'm

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Speaker 3: sorry about your toffees, but I thought Wolves actually looked better.

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Speaker 3: They looked more competent going forward. They seem like they

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Speaker 3: had like a plan and like, yes, it's probably just

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Speaker 3: results bias, Like they had created like one expected goal

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Speaker 3: and scored twice and finally like finished a couple of chances,

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Speaker 3: and so now we all pretend that they're good. But

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Speaker 3: I also think the biggest difference for Man United has

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Speaker 3: been Marcus Rashford. I mean he's finally fit. Like the

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Speaker 3: last year he barely played and when he did play

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Speaker 3: he was extremely ineffective. And Ronaldo was kind of, we'll say,

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Speaker 3: a net negative striker for them. Yeah, so it was

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Speaker 3: a problem. And now they have a bunch of dudes

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Speaker 3: who can who can run cover ground and run at defenders.

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Speaker 3: I mean Rashford and Marshia all just running at people,

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Speaker 3: with Anthony doing good pressing work and creating from the

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Speaker 3: right as well. I mean, they're just like a good

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Speaker 3: team and it kind of shows you how fast things

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Speaker 3: change in the prem I've got them rated better than

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Speaker 3: Todden and better than Chelsea, and I know Michael, I

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Speaker 3: know BJ is very upset to hear that, but uh

321
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Speaker 3: United has really turned it around since uh November which

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Speaker 3: is now a completely arbitrary date that I made up

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Speaker 3: as relevant. November. First, they're actually plus point five extra

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Speaker 3: difference per ninety, so you know, you give ten dogs

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Speaker 3: some time. You get Castamiro in there, upgrade the midfield

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Speaker 3: a little bit, upgrade the defense with Martinez even though

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Speaker 3: he didn't play against Forrest. There's a clear trend line

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Speaker 3: for United. I think there is a ceiling because they

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Speaker 3: still are limited at striker and I'm still a little

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Speaker 3: skeptical of how many shots they're really going to get

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Speaker 3: from these players, Like can they truly be a top

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Speaker 3: four team? Probably not, because I still have them worse

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Speaker 3: than Liverpool and Newcastle. But I think that there's real

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Speaker 3: upward trajectory here for for United. I'm scared that BJ

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Speaker 3: say that, you know, no, I said at the beginning

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Speaker 3: of the season, and then but we're going to bet

337
00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,280
Speaker 3: against them, and then and then I said, it's time

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00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 3: to stop betting against them, and BJ didn't listen.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about some ten am games and

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Speaker 1: games that all three of us actually like. Here, all

341
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Speaker 1: three of us on the same side for a ten

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Speaker 1: am kickoff between Fulham even money favorites against Southampton. They're

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Speaker 1: at home. Southampton's bottom of the table, but Saints plus

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Speaker 1: two sixty draw plus two sixty.

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Speaker 3: I think this is.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely a spot to back Nathan Jones and Southampton. BJ.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Southampton over the second half of the

349
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Speaker 2: season's gonna be the biggest positive aggression candidate pretty much

350
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Speaker 2: in the Premier League. I mean, they did not have

351
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Speaker 2: a good showing. It's Brighton, you know, they lost three

352
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Speaker 2: one they can, but they did what Nathan Jones loves

353
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Speaker 2: to do. He concedes a ton of possession, likes to

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Speaker 2: be very direct. They did end up winning the expected

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Speaker 2: goals battle. But I'm hitting the brakes on that because

356
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,199
Speaker 2: you know, they created one point nine one point four

357
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Speaker 2: to five of it was the penalty that was missed

358
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Speaker 2: and then the rebound. So but again they held Brighten

359
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 2: the point six expected goals, which is very impressive. Now, Southampton,

360
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:09,920
Speaker 2: all of that positive regression, they're hopefully going to get

361
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 2: over the second half season is gonna have to come defensively,

362
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 2: because they're right now twenty eight goals allowed off of

363
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 2: twenty point eight expected. In their last six matches, they've

364
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:20,040
Speaker 2: allowed ten goals off of six point three expected. And

365
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,800
Speaker 2: the main problem it's the goalkeeper. It's Banazoo. I mean,

366
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,480
Speaker 2: he has a minus point five to two post shot

367
00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 2: actually plus minus per match, which I looked. If he

368
00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,440
Speaker 2: keeps that up over the second half season, that would

369
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 2: be by far the worst post shot actually plus minus

370
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,399
Speaker 2: in Premier League history since they started tracking it in

371
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,640
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen. So the point is is he cannot continue

372
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,399
Speaker 2: to be this bet, or maybe he will and we'll

373
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,119
Speaker 2: just continue losing money. But Fulham is absolutely overvalued in

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Speaker 2: the spot. Yeah, they beat Palace for nothing. Palace was

375
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Speaker 2: down two men for sixty five minutes of that match.

376
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Speaker 2: And let's not forget I mean, Fulham's still the worst

377
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Speaker 2: defense in the Premier League. Like they're allowing over one

378
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,320
Speaker 2: point six non penalty expected goals for match. Theyve allowed

379
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 2: thirty one big scoring chances. But the thing is, stylistically,

380
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:01,400
Speaker 2: these are gonna be two of the more direct teams

381
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 2: in the Premier League. So it'll I'll be very interesting

382
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 2: to see who controls more possession, who's able to be

383
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:07,639
Speaker 2: more threatening on the counter. But yeah, this is a

384
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 2: perfect spot here for Southampton. Goodbye low on them and

385
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,879
Speaker 2: sell high on Fulham. So like Southampton plus half a

386
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 2: goal at minus one twenty.

387
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be playing the money line here in Southampton.

388
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:21,359
Speaker 1: It's just that Bullham's coming off a big win against

389
00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace, win where it basically they played against nine

390
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 1: players and a very uninterested Palace side. So I think

391
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,760
Speaker 1: that we're seeing a little bit of inflation here. Pretty

392
00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,360
Speaker 1: simple on the Cottagers. And I mean, what better time

393
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,440
Speaker 1: to buy on Saints than now with them at the

394
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,200
Speaker 1: bottom of the table and not getting a new manager.

395
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 1: Bounce in Nathan Jones's debut Anthony, Yeah, I agree.

396
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Speaker 3: I'll make it three for three Wall ride the Saints

397
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,200
Speaker 3: when the Saints go marching in. They're a better team

398
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 3: in my power ratings, even though they're sitting in twentieth.

399
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,679
Speaker 3: You know, the same thing we said last week with Wolves.

400
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 3: You know, Wolves, despite being in twentieth, are actually better

401
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 3: than I thought they'd be this season. I won't say

402
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 3: Saints are better than I thought they would be this season,

403
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 3: but I'd say they're better than the market, and the

404
00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 3: current table would indicate they're not at all the worst

405
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 3: team in the league. And Fulham sitting in eighth, I

406
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 3: mean it is a unreal run by Mitrovitch. Mitrovich is

407
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 3: actually third in the league in xg P ninety right now,

408
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:25,200
Speaker 3: behind only Earling Holland and Darwin Uniaz, So that just

409
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 3: shows you how good Metro has been. And both teams

410
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,919
Speaker 3: do have advantages here and crossing. Either team stops crosses,

411
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,639
Speaker 3: both teams get a lot of chances from crossing, so

412
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,880
Speaker 3: there is a path that both teams scoring in this matchup.

413
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 3: But really, I just think this is classic sell high

414
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 3: by low, with Fulham and Southampton at complete ends of

415
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 3: the table where they shouldn't be. Necessarily, both teams shoul

416
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 3: probably be right around fifteenth, and you've got Saints sitting

417
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 3: down in twentieth and Fulham sitting up in eighth, and

418
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,679
Speaker 3: it's really not representative of where they really have played

419
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 3: to be or should be right now. So I'll take

420
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 3: the Saints plus a half.

421
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 1: We ride, Yeah, that that's that'll definitely end well.

422
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 3: Somety did move too, like Fulham was plus one twenty

423
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 3: plus one fifteen on the look aheads and now they're

424
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 3: down to even money. So you're getting it's a pretty

425
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 3: big move off of one game where like you said,

426
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 3: Southampton I thought played pretty well in that game, Like

427
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 3: they gave up a couple of great goals to Brighton,

428
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,200
Speaker 3: but on the balance, weren't weren't terrible.

429
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 1: Uh do we want to talk about City and Everton

430
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,119
Speaker 1: or do you want to just skip right through this one?

431
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 2: Well, I mean I was thinking if I had to

432
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 2: do if I had to do anything, I would be

433
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 2: with you, Michael on Everton. But I mean, I I'll

434
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 2: be honest, Michael, I still don't know what to make

435
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: of Everton. I mean, maybe you can enlighten our listeners,

436
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:44,920
Speaker 2: but like they're obviously they're going down, they're obviously overperforming

437
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 2: defensively because of Pickford. Now that the other's rumors that

438
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:53,239
Speaker 2: some teams may want him in January, Yeah, it's uh,

439
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 2: it's it's bleak and you know, I mean City probably

440
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 2: will run up the score here, So if you want

441
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 2: to take City, go ahead. But yeah, I think this

442
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 2: is just one of the easiest passes on the board.

443
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 1: City's minus eight hundred. Evert in twenty to one on the.

444
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 2: Ever You know what, I might throw a cute few

445
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 2: bucks on the Everton reverse puck line. Michael, there you go, yeah,

446
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 2: or probably like what twenty two.

447
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 3: To one or something, which is minus one and a half.

448
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 3: For those of us who don't know hockey, do you

449
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 3: know what's you know, what's nuts?

450
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 1: It like?

451
00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 3: How bad Everton is?

452
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 1: Well, no, that's not not saying. We saw what happened

453
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: last year. They barely escaped relegation, but.

454
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 3: They weren't that bad when they did it. This year

455
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 3: they're actually worst. They're worse this year than they were

456
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:32,239
Speaker 3: last year.

457
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: It's still too early to say, Okay, we'll find out.

458
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 1: I know I haven't seen enough of again, have not

459
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 1: played City yet.

460
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,720
Speaker 2: Albert Lewin and Mopey playing up top to make a.

461
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, Anthny Gordon had a good game, I think. So

462
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 3: I looked and I was like, all right, first Fred,

463
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 3: not even looking at the market yet. I want I

464
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 3: want City team total overs because we talked about this

465
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 3: last week and we said this Everton defense is going

466
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 3: to regress, and what a perfect opportunity went on the

467
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 3: road against the best team in the league and just

468
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 3: destroy them. I looked and it was minus one fiftyeth

469
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 3: over two and a half. I was like, oh, yeah, no,

470
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 3: we can't do that. And I looked at my numbers

471
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: and I was like, I can't even get there. If

472
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 3: you really want to get crazy, maybe like a sprinkle

473
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 3: on like an over three and a half team total,

474
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 3: because I think this is going to be a route.

475
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 3: I think City has a chance to kind of run

476
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 3: it up here at home the welcome back from the

477
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,639
Speaker 3: World Cup break game. They looked really good today. I

478
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 3: thought they dominated leads, created a bunch of chances and

479
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 3: it's a very different task going up against Everton because

480
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 3: they play a lot more passively. But I don't really

481
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 3: think it matters. I mean, Everyton who conceded two point

482
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 3: two to Spurs, one point nine to Fulham, two point

483
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 3: four to Born with one point five to Newcastle. That

484
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 3: was their last four away matches in the prem So

485
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,120
Speaker 3: City also really good at creating like cutbacks, some width

486
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 3: and using wid the you know, move defenders. Everton doesn't

487
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 3: stop crosses. So it's hard to make the case from

488
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 3: the old topees.

489
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: The case is that it's twenty to one, Like that's it, right,

490
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 1: that's the only case, Yes, is that you think about

491
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: these We've we've already seen City lose to a team

492
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 1: that was nineteen to one and Brentford is miles better

493
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 1: than ever Did. I think it's pretty fair to say

494
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 1: so that the Bee shouldn't have been up at that price.

495
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 2: Correct me if I'm wrong, Michael. But there has been

496
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 2: a few matches where Ever since held City in check

497
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 2: right in the past.

498
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 1: Yeah. Last year they got an unlucky vur call against

499
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 1: the exactly and they lost one on a penalty. They

500
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 1: can do. I mean, look, I think that here's the

501
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: argument for Everden. Here is they're twenty to one and

502
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: if you look at their lineup, there's enough talent in

503
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: the lineup to be like, this team shouldn't be twenty

504
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 1: to one against anybody. But that's an indictment on everything

505
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 1: else that ever did. I'll be betting Everyden on the

506
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,959
Speaker 1: money line of twenty one. I do not encourage anybody

507
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 1: else to do so. Bournemuth Palace. Bournemouth is plus one

508
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 1: eighty Crystal Palace plus one fifty on the road. The

509
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 1: draw is plus two thirty. Palace is breaking They're breaking

510
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 1: my heart a little bit. I still think that this

511
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 1: number is good enough though on vier side on the

512
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 1: road against bournemth a team that they're just punching above

513
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,880
Speaker 1: their weight, Like I get what they're They've they've done

514
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 1: through the first portion of season before the World Cup

515
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: was impressive in the way that they got results. They

516
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 1: made everything look like fools twice in a week, which

517
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: was you know, now we know it's not a something

518
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: to be celebrated. I just I just almost refused to

519
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: I'll go down with the ship with pasas. I refuse

520
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 1: to believe that they're not better than what we've seen

521
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 1: out of them. So I'll be on palace here plus

522
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 1: one fifty. Bja, you were on Bourne myth against.

523
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 3: The Yeah, yeah, your favorite team.

524
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, shame on me. They did nothing against Chelsea half

525
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 2: an expected goal, didn't didn't attempt a shot inside the

526
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 2: box until the seventy eighth minute when the match just

527
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 2: got completely stretched. So shame on me for thinking the

528
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 2: worst team in the Premier League cold cover a one

529
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,959
Speaker 2: and a half spread against a Chelsea team that was very,

530
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 2: very bad for the break. But hey, it happens. Born.

531
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 2: I mean, these are literally the two worst offenses in

532
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 2: the Premier League. Like this is nineteenth and twentieth on

533
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 2: the XCHI chart. Bournemouth is at you know, zero point

534
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 2: seventy five non penalty xtal per ninety they're at They're

535
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 2: averaging eight shots per match, only sixteen touches in the

536
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 2: penalty area, Like this is this is just a really

537
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 2: bad offense and they've been they've been running pretty hot,

538
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,199
Speaker 2: twelve goals off of eight point four expected in their

539
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 2: last eight. But Crystal Palace I did some digging into

540
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 2: their defense because I was like, you know, this was

541
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 2: the top five defense by XCH last Year's like what

542
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 2: on earth has happened? Because they are by every metric

543
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 2: you look at, like the fifteenth defense in the Premier League.

544
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 2: And really what it boils down to is they've just

545
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,439
Speaker 2: gotten routed by good offenses. Then obviously when they were

546
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 2: down nine men against Fulham, so against City, Liverpool and

547
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 2: Newcastle and then obviously Fulham when they were down to

548
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 2: nine men, they allowed over two expected goals in all

549
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 2: of those matches. In every other match so far of

550
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 2: the season, they're only allowing one point zero four expected

551
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 2: goals per ninety minutes. So it's really just been a

552
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 2: few bad matches against really really good offenses or obviously

553
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 2: being down two men to Fulham, so I don't really

554
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 2: see a path where Bournemouth is going to create over

555
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 2: one expected goal in this match if Palace continues to

556
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 2: play like they have been against mediocre offenses. In the

557
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 2: flip side of this, Palace offensively already mentioned it. They're

558
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 2: nineteenth in non penalty expected goals like they are truly, truly,

559
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 2: quite terrible at trying to actually create those big scoring

560
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 2: chances in the final third. They've only created nine of

561
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 2: them on the season, their bottom five in every single

562
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: offensive category. I like both team to score no at

563
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 2: even money. I think it's kind of crazy that this

564
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,159
Speaker 2: price is sitting there at even money, so I have

565
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,360
Speaker 2: that projected at minus one forty seven. So both teams

566
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 2: to score no even money.

567
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 3: For me, I've lost so many unders betting these bad

568
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 3: teams that continue to score goals out of nothing. Yeah,

569
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 3: from this league this year and it's really been the

570
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 3: story of the league. Oibers are hitting at sixty almost

571
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 3: sixty percent, which is absurd based on our bet Labs data.

572
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 3: They went eight one and one in the first ten

573
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 3: matches coming out of the break. P Days very unhappy

574
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 3: about it. I am too, because I bet mostly unders,

575
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 3: but I love the under here. Perry's defense has actually

576
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 3: been decent at home. They've conceded nine expectacles in eight matches,

577
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 3: right around the middle of the league, and they have

578
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 3: played a couple of the bigger sides at home, so

579
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 3: it's not like they've only played the cupcakes at home.

580
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 3: But neither of these attacks can consistently get the ball

581
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 3: into the penalty area. Even the Palace Fulham game that

582
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 3: ended three zero, there's only four shots in the first

583
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 3: half hour when the game was eleven on eleven, and

584
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 3: that kind of gets to the point here, like Palace

585
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 3: is just not effectively breaking teams down. They've ever been

586
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 3: great at that, even last year when they were good,

587
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 3: and now they've just really fallen off going forward, and

588
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 3: I think the price is about right here. I've downgraded Palace.

589
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 3: Their defense has fallen off a cliff, but the Bournemouth

590
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 3: attack is not the one that's going to take advantage

591
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,680
Speaker 3: of that. Yeah, Palace getting dominated the good teams is

592
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 3: not something that happened last year, and it is something

593
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 3: that's happened a couple of times this season. So I'm

594
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 3: a little bit down on Palace. I'm definitely down on Bournemouth,

595
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 3: who is starting to regress now they're down to fourteen

596
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 3: in the table. They'll be in the relegation fight. If

597
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 3: you just look at their goal difference, you see where

598
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 3: they are as a team, and that gives you a

599
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 3: good indication that they're one of the three worst teams.

600
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 3: I think they're the worst team in the league. So

601
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 3: this screams one nil one one kind of match. So

602
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 3: I'm laying some juice here. Minus one thirty one thirty

603
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 3: five's are out there as well, under two and a

604
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 3: half for me.

605
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: Newcastle in Leeds next, Newcastle's minus two twenty three at

606
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 1: home Leeds United six to one. The draw is plus

607
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: three fifty.

608
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 3: Boyd.

609
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: Newcastle looked great against Leicester. They were in second place

610
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 1: on the table before the City match. It's now I

611
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: think it's fair to say that this season right now,

612
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: like they're the third best team in the league. When

613
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 1: you're just looking at this team at this season in

614
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: a vacuum, right you can you could say Liverpool are

615
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 1: more talented and Chelsea are more talented, United, whatever. But

616
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 1: just in terms of how things are going, I don't

617
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: think that the Newcastle being in third place is unfair,

618
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 1: have about put it that way. That said, the market

619
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: is getting a little crazy here, and Leads are a

620
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,719
Speaker 1: team that they're dangerous, like they can, they can punch up,

621
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: they've they can yep. If you're not on, if you're

622
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 1: not on your game, and Leads catches you, you know,

623
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: off kilter just a little bit, you're in trouble and

624
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 1: that makes them dangerous. Six to one I think is

625
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 1: a good enough price here. H Going against Palace not

626
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 1: gonna be fun. They are the third biggest favorite on

627
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 1: the board behind uh City and Liverpool this week, so

628
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 1: it's just I don't feel good about it generally, but

629
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: I just think it's it's hard. If you had told

630
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: me for five weeks before the World Cup you're gonna

631
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: have a chance to bet Leeds United at six to

632
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 1: one against Newcastle, I think we all be like, it's

633
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: probably a little insane. So I'll take Leads here at

634
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 1: six to one. Big price, Anthony, your boys, your peacocks.

635
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just pulling it up. I've now bet

636
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 3: on Leads in their last one, two, three, four, five

637
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 3: six matches in the prem You.

638
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 2: Love yourself, Jesse Marsh.

639
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 3: I do love Jesse and I like this leads team.

640
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 3: I still like them. They are dealing with some injuries

641
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 3: up front. They looked a little bit short going forward

642
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 3: today and it definitely played a role in that match.

643
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 3: I thought the decision to start Aaronson up top with

644
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 3: Rodrigo didn't really work, and then they moved them out

645
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 3: wide and I didn't really work either. The defense didn't

646
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 3: do well. I mean, it wasn't a great performance, but

647
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 3: it was Manchester City right, So yes Leeds will be

648
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 3: getting downgraded. The question for this matchup is whether or

649
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 3: not Leads can really disrupt me Necastle because Newcastle have

650
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 3: compared to the traditional top four top six teams, they

651
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 3: tend to be more pragmatic, whereas Newcastle wants to move

652
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 3: the ball quickly and kind of make faster possessions. So

653
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 3: can Leeds disrupt that? I would I like betting Leads

654
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 3: at home in those situations more than a way, but

655
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 3: it would be lead to nothing again for me here,

656
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 3: I still just think the market is too low on

657
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: this leads team that continues to put up excellent underlying

658
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 3: numbers that suggests they're right around tenth in the league.

659
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: Spurs, you know, I was alluding to this that basically

660
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: everything remains status quo. It was like the World Cup

661
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 1: never even happened, and Spurs are the perfect metaphor for that.

662
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 1: Nine straight games Spurs have fallen behind where you can

663
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: see it first in the Premier League. They look terrible

664
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 1: in the first half. It's just like this. I think

665
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: this is just incredibly strange trait where they almost like

666
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 1: need to be incentivized to play in a match, and

667
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, Antonio content takes his handbreaks

668
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 1: off and Spurs look like world beaters. Uh able to

669
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 1: nab a two two draw against Brentford despite falling behind

670
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:12,240
Speaker 1: their minus one fifty Tottenham are at home against Unaiaimori's

671
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 1: Aston Villa, who are four to one. To draw is

672
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: three to one. This is Sunday morning kickoff. I don't

673
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 1: know how anyone could trust Spurs at this price at

674
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 1: this time right now, Anthony, this is a team that

675
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: looks confusing, I guess is the best way to put it.

676
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 1: They are Jekyll and Hide literally jackal in the first half,

677
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 1: hide in the second half. Do you just sit back

678
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 1: and say, okay, I'll just wait for Villa to score

679
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: and then I'm gonna lie bet Spurs.

680
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 3: No, uh, I think by the way, you know who

681
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 3: the first the last team Spurs scored first against Everton.

682
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's got to be. Do you know the Wolves?

683
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 3: Fifteenth Wolves has two.

684
00:33:56,520 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 1: Away wins in the calendar year and they both goodness

685
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 1: in Park. There you go. Yeah, the answers always.

686
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 3: Ever did Spurs are starting to remind me of a

687
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 3: certain team in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one that

688
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 3: cost me a ton of money because coming out actually

689
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 3: going into COVID and then coming out of COVID, this

690
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 3: was a team who would consistently be overrated in the

691
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 3: betting market. They would consistently fall behind their opponents, they

692
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 3: would make a magical comeback and then seem to always

693
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 3: score in stoppage time every game off of a fluke

694
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 3: or a transition or a weird play, and they would

695
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 3: win these games. And it was bizarre. And this team

696
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 3: finished second in the prem despite being like the sixth

697
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 3: best team in the league that year. They were the

698
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 3: closest challengers to man City, and then they went into

699
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 3: a period of turntmoil right after that, and then they

700
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 3: had to reboot everything. And they're a team that BJ

701
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 3: has bet against repeatedly this season and now they're finally

702
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 3: on the upswing. That's where I feel like we're out

703
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 3: on the cycle with toddam they it reminded me so

704
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 3: much of the Ola Man United teams that it's kind

705
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 3: of remarkable. And I shouldn't say Ole and Kante. I

706
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 3: shouldn't put them in the same sentence because obviously there's

707
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 3: a huge managerial difference there. But Spurs have been incredibly fortunate.

708
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,240
Speaker 3: They have rescued a ton of points. They were totally

709
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 3: outplayed the first hour against Brentford. The only thing that

710
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 3: worked was just hoofing the ball up to the forwards,

711
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 3: winning every aerial duel completely bypassing the midfield. The defense

712
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 3: was leaving a lot to be desired Eric Dyer, you know,

713
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 3: conceding a stupid corner that leads to the goal. Long Lay.

714
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 3: I actually thought had a pretty strong performance. But you know,

715
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 3: Davidson Sanchez first guy off the bench, Like, there's just

716
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 3: a lot of you know, Jeffe teng Ganga getting starts,

717
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 3: Romero still celebrating the World Cup. There's just a lot

718
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 3: of staleness at Tome right now, it feels like, and

719
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 3: they haven't taken a step forward they've claken multiple multiple

720
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 3: steps back. They were doubled up on expected goals. I

721
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 3: was pretty encouraged by the Villa performance. Now the number

722
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 3: isn't it quite there for me right now, but I

723
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 3: do think we're going to get a plus one and

724
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 3: then it's going to be hammer time on Aston Villa,

725
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 3: because that is this Tottenam team just continues to run

726
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 3: really good. The only thing that's scary Villa's bad defending

727
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 3: set pieces, and that's the one thing where Tottenham has

728
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 3: lived and survived and been incredibly fortunate. I guess it's

729
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: the one key difference because those United teams weren't good

730
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 3: at set pieces either, but you know, Spurs have been

731
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 3: great on set pieces. It has saved them. But somebody

732
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 3: asked me today, is going down all the time and

733
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,280
Speaker 3: coming back a Conte thing? Like there's a problem with Conte,

734
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 3: you know, whether it's tactically in the first half or

735
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 3: is it just that they're bad? And I will always

736
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:43,800
Speaker 3: say that it's probably random invariance that teams keep falling

737
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 3: behind like that. The games don't play out a little

738
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 3: differently where they go up and then concede, but it's

739
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 3: just the sign of an inconsistent and not very good

740
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 3: team if you continuously keep conceding chances early in games

741
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 3: and falling behind. And remember there was another team that

742
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 3: had the same problem in the spring, Liverpool and started

743
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 3: and look at what happened to them, you know this

744
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 3: early season here where they've been getting uh you know,

745
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,399
Speaker 3: beat repeatedly. So it's a harbinger of bad things to come.

746
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 3: And I'm very I'm about as parish as I've been

747
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 3: on Tottenham probably a year and a half, two years

748
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 3: after that match on after that match on Monday.

749
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on Villa. Four to one is a good

750
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: enough number to go against the Spurs team that just

751
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: they look incredibly vulnerable. But even eye test, if you

752
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: just watch them, we're not.

753
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 3: Getting superhuman numbers out of Sun anymore either, Like he

754
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 3: just regressed back to we got to get the mass

755
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 3: stead of instead of incredible.

756
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: Also, like you you ran through the starters and Parisitch

757
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 1: was out there, which I was like, whoa, This poor

758
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: guy just you know, led his heart out for Croatia

759
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 1: and Qatar and he's like back out there already, So

760
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 1: just for I thought that was crazy. Yeah, it's just

761
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 1: you watch a Spurs game and that those both those

762
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 1: Brentford goals were coming. I know that the Dier the

763
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 1: goal up, that the corner from Diers Shin was fortunate,

764
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 1: but it was still coming like that. The Spurs were

765
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 1: like playing with fire for thirty minutes, the first thirty

766
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 1: minutes of the game. Uh, Villa, I think that four

767
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 1: to one is it's such a good number. It's not

768
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 1: Stephen Gerrard's field anymore. PJ. This this this team should

769
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 1: be more formidable. Uh and show me the person that

770
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 1: wants to bet Tottenham at minus one fifty.

771
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 2: Let me see, not me, not me that fifty. But

772
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 2: what I will say, it's something I've been saying quite

773
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 2: a bit, is that I think the market's gonna go

774
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 2: against Tottenham based on you know what, we've seen them

775
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 2: just consistently going behind, like it's already come down a

776
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 2: little bit. You can find a Tottenham minus one forty

777
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 2: out there, and if this thing hits minus one twenty,

778
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 2: I will be firing on Spurs because they yes, the

779
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 2: eye test, they haven't looked that bad. But they're gonna

780
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 2: get bent to Care back. They're gonna get Ramero back

781
00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 2: probably for this match. They'll be a little bit better defensively,

782
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 2: a little bit better in the midfield. And the biggest thing,

783
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,240
Speaker 2: and I understand game state is because it's because aston

784
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 2: Villa was behind against Liverpool, but they were really really

785
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,359
Speaker 2: bad in transition defense. So if Toddam's able to sit

786
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 2: deep and just play in transition against Villa like a

787
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: better finisher than Darwin nunia Is, then Liverpool could have

788
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 2: had four or five goals in that match. So I'm

789
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 2: very hesitant to just start fading Spurs again because, like

790
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 2: Anthony said, like going behind nine times in a row

791
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 2: is just it. It truly is variant. It's like unless

792
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 2: you're just really really bad, like over one of the

793
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 2: worst teams in the Premier League, like okay, you can

794
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 2: just say, all right, they're bad. But like a team

795
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 2: like Toddham who's in the top four, who is still

796
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 2: at around a plus seven, expect a gold differential, Like

797
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 2: this team isn't as bad as I think everybody is

798
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 2: making out to be. I think they will start to

799
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 2: veer the other way as they start to get some

800
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 2: of their attack. Obviously they got cool with Sevsky back,

801
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 2: that'll obviously help them going forward. But I think you're

802
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 2: going to see a better more inspired Todden to performance

803
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 2: this weekend. If Toddam hits minus one twenty, I'll be

804
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 2: firing on them. But if they don't hit get there, well,

805
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 2: I'll just wait for them to concede and then I

806
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:09,240
Speaker 2: will bet them live.

807
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 1: Good luck, thank you. Not in force?

808
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 3: What does Villa to score first? I'm kind of I'm

809
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 3: kind of curious. I don't minus five hundred in my model.

810
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,879
Speaker 1: The other Sunday game is BJ's adding of Forrest their

811
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 1: plus four twenty five hosting Chelsea minus one fifty same

812
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 1: crisis Spurs. The draw is plus two eighty at the

813
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 1: City Ground. Looked like Grand Potter's tutelage is starting to

814
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 1: pay off a little bit. Of Chelsea some some brighton

815
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 1: goals out of them against Bourne. Myth of a team stuff,

816
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 1: So read into it what you what you will. But uh,

817
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 1: they did look good. That said, it's it's a pass

818
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 1: for me. I'm not laying this number with Chelsea and

819
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 1: I've got no interest in Forced. I've got some other

820
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 1: underdogs that I'll be losing money on instead. What do

821
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:05,840
Speaker 1: you got, Anthony?

822
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 3: When do we when do we start criticizing Steve Cooper?

823
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 3: We have to do that on the show. No, no, no,

824
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 3: they look terrible defensively, they look like a mess. I

825
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 3: mean it's like every time they.

826
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: Lose the the first game out of the World Cup.

827
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 2: Every time new guys like they're still the guy.

828
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 1: Give the guy a break. And you want to judge

829
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:29,879
Speaker 1: Steve Cooper off his first twenty games in the Premier League, Yeah,

830
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 1: the guy.

831
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 3: There's only going to be about nineteen the guy out

832
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 3: of the Premier League. But yeah, I mean this is

833
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 3: in theory a good forest spot. If we got over

834
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 3: plus one, I think I would think I would hop

835
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 3: on Bjay's boys. They just like they have improved defensively,

836
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 3: like in the sense that they haven't been sased many

837
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 3: goals because teams haven't finished as well and there was

838
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 3: regression coming positively for this defense. But and they have

839
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 3: been better at home. But I mean, it's just hard

840
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,800
Speaker 3: to make the case. I'm not laying it with Chelsea

841
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 3: because I do think it was just one game at

842
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 3: home against the worst team in the league. So I'm

843
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:03,560
Speaker 3: not going to all of a sudden go buy my

844
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 3: Chelsea stock and think that they solved everything. Although I

845
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 3: was encouraged my Mount's performance, I thought that was the

846
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 3: best game of the year, but again it was Bournemuth

847
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 3: at home. Now they go on the road to Forrest

848
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:17,239
Speaker 3: and I still think they're a little bit inflated. But yeah,

849
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 3: this is a pass for me. I would lean toward

850
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 3: the under as well, because I'm still not really buying

851
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 3: this Chelsea attack and at all, So I will will

852
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 3: lean toward the under, but I will I will leave

853
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 3: it to Bjay who will try to sell our listeners.

854
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 3: I'm betting on these bums again at this.

855
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 2: Number, I'm trying to sell Bourne myth Nottingham Forrest, Like

856
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 2: I am just true.

857
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: You won't go to your Everted. You won't go to

858
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 1: your Everted.

859
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 2: I won't, No, I really won't. Yeah, I mean Chelsea

860
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 2: won two, nothing like it was very comfortable. But that

861
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 2: was the first time this season. This is kind of remarkable.

862
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 2: First time this season Chelsea has scored two goals in

863
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 2: the first half and it's also the first time in

864
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 2: six matches that they've created over one and a half

865
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 2: expected goals and they were still only able to tilt

866
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 2: the field fifty three percent against the biggest field tilt

867
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 2: defense in the Premier League. And I agree with the

868
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 2: anthy like the problems still exists upfront for Chelsea, Like

869
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 2: I don't think that just because Kai Havevertz finished off

870
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 2: a goal that goalkeeper probably should have came out and

871
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 2: punched away, that they're suddenly now going to create all

872
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 2: these big scoring chances, because I mean, let's not forget

873
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 2: Chelsea has taken the fewest shots in the Premier League

874
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,720
Speaker 2: inside the six yard box, Like, they are still around

875
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 2: a little over one non penalty expected goal per ninety minutes.

876
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 2: So listen. And the thing is is, like if I

877
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 2: were somebody smarter, I would probably say, hey, maybe I'll

878
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 2: just wait and try to fade Chelsea at a different

879
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 2: point than against the two worst teams in the Premier League.

880
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 2: But I'm not that smart, So I mean, the reality

881
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 2: is is that Nottingham Forest is a big home home

882
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 2: road split team. Like they're minus nine point six expected

883
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 2: gold the French on the road and they're minus one

884
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 2: at home. They're also due for a ton of positive

885
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 2: regression defensively thirty three allowed off of twenty six point

886
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 2: six expected Like offensively they have Offensively they have created

887
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 2: the ninth most big scoring chances like Chelsea's in the

888
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 2: bottom ten, and big scoring chances allowed, like this is

889
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 2: one of those spots that it's advantageous to fit. Continue

890
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 2: to fait a Chelsea team that is still at a

891
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 2: minus expectable differential on the season. So it'll probably end horribly.

892
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 2: But I like Forest plus half a goal at plus

893
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 2: one thirty. I may wait, like Anthony mentioned, to see

894
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 2: if I can get them at plus one, see if

895
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 2: people buy into Chelsea or not. But yeah, I still

896
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 2: don't think Chelsea just solved other problems after a one

897
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:40,439
Speaker 2: point eight expectacle showing against Bourne.

898
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 3: Myth Chelsea hosts man City. There you go just after

899
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 3: New Year's and we might get a plus one, so

900
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 3: we'll see. Might might have bet the blue on city, right, yeah, yeah,

901
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 3: the city?

902
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 1: Yes plus one?

903
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, city plus one.

904
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:57,359
Speaker 1: Yep, they should They should do that once.

905
00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 3: Once Chelsea beats Forrest by seven, it might be they

906
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:02,840
Speaker 3: might the market might have to move that far.

907
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 2: And city of one point to expect it. It's going

908
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 2: to be a lot of fun.

909
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 1: All right.

910
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 3: Anderson will be back in goal, by the way. Big

911
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 3: part is good. Wayne Hennessey.

912
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 2: Hopefully he wears the hat.

913
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 1: We'll see exactly. We'll see if his hat is on.

914
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 3: Uh, it's it's December and London. I don't see the hat.

915
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 1: We gotta we gotta flip the match week page very

916
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 1: briefly here we'll talk about a Monday kickoff. That way,

917
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 1: you dear listener, have a chance to hear our thoughts

918
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 1: on on Monday night football between Brentford and Liverpool. This

919
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 1: is what I was alluding to earlier when I said

920
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 1: that you know that Urigen Klopp is he's going to

921
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 1: be a grumpy man when when when he gets a

922
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 1: chance to complain about the fact that Liverpool have to

923
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 1: play Friday Monday. Brentford's plus four fifty at home, Liverpool's

924
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:51,720
Speaker 1: minus one seventy five. The draw is plus three hundred.

925
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:55,240
Speaker 1: I think you, dear listener, know exactly where this conversation

926
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 1: is going if you've been listening to the show for

927
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 1: a long time. Brentford is a big underdog, Brentford is

928
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,839
Speaker 1: at home, Brentford is playing a top six side. Those

929
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: are always the ingredients that we like to look for

930
00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 1: to lose money and heartbreaking fashion on a Brentford money

931
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: line bet. At least on my side of the coin.

932
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: I watched them you know, lose, draw, draw to to

933
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 1: a in a brilliant display one of those one of

934
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: those games where you feel proud to have bet them,

935
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 1: but sad not to have won the bet. But I'll

936
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 1: be on the Brentford money line plus four fifty. Uh

937
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:28,240
Speaker 1: these Bees, baby, this this could be it for Ivan Tony.

938
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 2: You think they'll do the guard of honor for d

939
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 2: office style?

940
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 1: I would? I mean, god, he was here, he was

941
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 1: I had spurs of that first half too.

942
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 3: Anytime goalscorer?

943
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm on Brentford and I'm pretty sure this

944
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 1: conversation will probably follow that scene. Uh line of thinking.

945
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 1: It's a twelve thirty kickoff, Anthony noon Eastern time. Will

946
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 1: you be spending your lunch hours rooting on the Bees?

947
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 2: I will.

948
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 3: I am not playing Liverpool against Leicester because I think

949
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 3: Lester is like a slow and intricate team and I

950
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:09,400
Speaker 3: don't love the matchup. I don't love the Foxes. I

951
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 3: was going back through the data today. The only team

952
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 3: in the league that I have not bet on at

953
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 3: any point this season is the Foxes. So I will

954
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 3: be passing there, but I will be fading Liverpool in

955
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:23,520
Speaker 3: the Monday night match at Brentford. Liverpool's eleventh and expected

956
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 3: goals allowed, they conceded one point four to Villa and

957
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 3: I tweeted this during the match. It felt like it

958
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:29,799
Speaker 3: could have been a lot more. I mean, Villa had

959
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 3: constant pressure, constant breaking through. Liverpool's defense under Clop the

960
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:37,759
Speaker 3: last four years had consistently held one of the two

961
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 3: highest defensive lines and was top two and passes for

962
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 3: defensive action usually first. It was one year I think

963
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 3: Leeds had them during peaked b Elsa Ball, but they

964
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 3: were an incredible pressing team and they're just not anymore.

965
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,399
Speaker 3: I mean they're outside the top three in defensive line height.

966
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 3: That's per our guy Mark the Mark Statspot, great follow

967
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:00,800
Speaker 3: on Twitter. It's considerably lower. It's just a sign that

968
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 3: they're having less control of games than they did in

969
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:06,719
Speaker 3: years past. And Fabinho and Virgil van Dyke aka Virgil

970
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,480
Speaker 3: van Disney as I've been calling him, have shown some

971
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 3: regression in their performances. I mean they look like they've

972
00:48:11,880 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 3: lost a step or two as well, and it's hurt

973
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,720
Speaker 3: Liverpool's transition defense a lot. I think it's the biggest

974
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 3: difference between this year and last year in years past.

975
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:22,759
Speaker 3: Darwin Umias will be fine. The attack is still really good,

976
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 3: but I'm taking some Brentford first half team total over

977
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:28,759
Speaker 3: plus one fifty, so Brentford to scored in the first half,

978
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 3: and then I like some Brentford plus one as well.

979
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 3: I'll be firing on the Bees. I think they're very

980
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:36,320
Speaker 3: live here. You need the Reds to be like a

981
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 3: going a quarter better to bet this number on Liverpool,

982
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,919
Speaker 3: and I just don't see that against the Brentford team

983
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:43,839
Speaker 3: that remains average in the league.

984
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 1: BJ what about you.

985
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be on Brentford. I think this is a

986
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:51,920
Speaker 2: good spot to wait though before betting Brentford because if

987
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 2: you think about it, Liverpool, as we believe, is going

988
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 2: to beat Lesser pretty badly. And then obviously Brentford is

989
00:48:58,160 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 2: an underdog against West Ham's potentially if Brentford loses to

990
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 2: west Ham Liverpool pounds last year, you could potentially get

991
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: a better price on Brentford. But one of the best

992
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,719
Speaker 2: teams against the Big six at home, I haven Tony

993
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:13,240
Speaker 2: send off. Yeah, just a perfect spot here for Brentford.

994
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 2: And like I already mentioned, with Liverpool's defense, like Allison's

995
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 2: been running ridiculously hot, like Liverpool has allowed a ton

996
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 2: of big scoring chances. Brentford had two big scoring chances

997
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 2: against Toddam both of their goals, so I have no

998
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 2: doubt in my mind they'll be able to create one year.

999
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 2: And they played a pretty chaotic match against Liverpool last year.

1000
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,399
Speaker 2: It was a three to three thriller with a ton

1001
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 2: of big scoring chances at both ends. So and that

1002
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 2: was the Liverpool team that was coming off and that

1003
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 2: was in pretty much one of their heights really over

1004
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:43,840
Speaker 2: the second half last season. And then so this is

1005
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 2: another just Brentford at home against the Big six. You

1006
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 2: almost always have to do it.

1007
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,400
Speaker 3: Brentford plus one in that game too, So it kind

1008
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 3: of gets to the point like Liverpool's clearly worse, Brentford's

1009
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:55,880
Speaker 3: probably marginally worse than last year, but not significantly so,

1010
00:49:56,480 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 3: and so plus one is definitely a good for me.

1011
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 1: Bien Benito, welcome back to La Liga, and what a

1012
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 1: way to welcome back Spain's top division. Then a bet

1013
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 1: on the boys from bill Bao Los Leones plus what

1014
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 1: sixty two right now at better sixty five against Real Batis.

1015
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 1: Bill Bao went into the break as one of the

1016
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 1: best defensive sides in La Liga. Don't expect that form

1017
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 1: to really drop off. This is a really good team

1018
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: even on the road, think that they should be able

1019
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 1: to get the job done as a slight road favorite

1020
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 1: for my favorite bet in Spain as a Thursday kickoff.

1021
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 1: By the way, so if you're listening to this early, get.

1022
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:42,680
Speaker 2: In on that BJ Real Validalide and Real Madrid over

1023
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 2: three goals at minus one O.

1024
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 3: Five Aalga over Baby Laiga over.

1025
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna sit here and tell you that valid

1026
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:51,719
Speaker 2: lead is some amazing offense, because they're not. But Real

1027
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 2: Madrid's defense, what we've said over and over and over again,

1028
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,840
Speaker 2: they just haven't been that great. Like they've they're allowing

1029
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:01,240
Speaker 2: around one expectacle for match and they've conceded in every

1030
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 2: single league match except for two against Catafe and LJ,

1031
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 2: two of the worst offenses in the league. Plus, I

1032
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:09,879
Speaker 2: don't really know at the time of taking this if

1033
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 2: too Many or Kivi Vinger are going to play in

1034
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 2: this match. Obviously they went to the final of the

1035
00:51:14,480 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 2: World Cup. I don't know if Angelotti is gonna give

1036
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,720
Speaker 2: them some rest. If they don't play, then that, obviously

1037
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:22,120
Speaker 2: Real Madrid becomes a lot more vulnerable. In transition defense,

1038
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,359
Speaker 2: Baldlee is a bottom five defense next year, allowed from

1039
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 2: open play and set pieces. They're allowing around two expected

1040
00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:30,840
Speaker 2: goles p nine been playing from behind, while Real Madrid

1041
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 2: is creating over two expecta goles for ninety when playing

1042
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:36,359
Speaker 2: with the leads. So if Madrid scores first, I think

1043
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 2: this one's gonna ge out of hands. So I like

1044
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 2: over his three goals, that might as well five.

1045
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 1: Anthony anything for us in Spain.

1046
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,600
Speaker 3: Europe's top five leagues combined, bill Bao is the best

1047
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 3: defense in Europe this season. Of course, there's no weight

1048
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 3: supplied to that for league strength, but the best defense

1049
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:56,840
Speaker 3: in Europe is pretty impressive. The tenth best defense in

1050
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:59,680
Speaker 3: Europe by expected goal is allowed this season is Valencia,

1051
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 3: who is plus a half on the road at Viial,

1052
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 3: who is twelve in extually allowed this season. These two

1053
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:09,360
Speaker 3: teams are actually remarkably similar. You look at their underlying

1054
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:12,240
Speaker 3: satistical profiles, they're right around each other, and they expected

1055
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 3: goals difference Valencia just a notch better vi Real. Losing

1056
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:17,759
Speaker 3: Emory I think is a pretty big loss for them,

1057
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:20,279
Speaker 3: and I do expect some regression coming for this team,

1058
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:22,879
Speaker 3: which when you look at the talent like punched way

1059
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:25,879
Speaker 3: above their talent level under Emory. Finishing near the top

1060
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 3: four in Spain, finishing you know, of course in the

1061
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 3: semi finals for the Champions League, and all the credit

1062
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:33,720
Speaker 3: to them for that. But these teams are very similar

1063
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:35,719
Speaker 3: and so I just don't see a huge gap and

1064
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 3: thus I'm going to take the plus a half on

1065
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:39,319
Speaker 3: the road. So give me Valencia a plus a half

1066
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:41,240
Speaker 3: at Virial.

1067
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 1: League also in action along with Leliga in the Premier

1068
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 1: League BJ what do you have for us in France?

1069
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:53,400
Speaker 2: I like Angeers Strano bett plus one o five against Lorient.

1070
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 2: Lorient's actually in fifth place in legond but they don't

1071
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:59,360
Speaker 2: have a minus two point four expected goal diffrenchal Onngier's

1072
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 2: loss to is Xo on Wednesday, but they created almost

1073
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 2: two expected goals and a Joxio had a penalty. You know,

1074
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 2: there's two guys on on Jais that were pretty influential

1075
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:15,479
Speaker 2: for Morocco going to the semifinals. Alani and Boofall both

1076
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:17,839
Speaker 2: got the got the match off against the Joxio. I'm

1077
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,239
Speaker 2: assuming that they will be back for this match. And

1078
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 2: on jars is a really really big positive aggression candidate.

1079
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:26,239
Speaker 2: Over the second half of the season, they're sitting in

1080
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:31,239
Speaker 2: last place in league on but they do have a

1081
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 2: They have a minus nineteen actual goal differential and only

1082
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,280
Speaker 2: about a six point minus six point nine expected goal differential,

1083
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 2: so the gap between these two teams is pretty similar

1084
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 2: when you factor in home field advantage. So I'll take

1085
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 2: the plus money with on jais a Toronto Bett plus five.

1086
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 1: Antony. You also have a little sprinkle for us in France.

1087
00:53:56,040 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 3: We bencier I like a Jaxxio plus have on the

1088
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 3: road at Toulouse. Now to Louse has not played yet,

1089
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 3: They're going to play on Thursday, so we don't have

1090
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 3: the result for Toulouse coming off of the World Cup break,

1091
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 3: but they have not been a very good attack, and

1092
00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:12,759
Speaker 3: they've both these teams have their leading goal scorer with

1093
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,800
Speaker 3: three total goals this season, so it's been a struggle

1094
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 3: for both of these attacks. But the Jackson's defense has

1095
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:20,360
Speaker 3: actually been excellent in their top ten in every defensive

1096
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 3: category that I care about when it comes to stopping

1097
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 3: the ball, stopping teams from getting into your penalty area,

1098
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:28,360
Speaker 3: preventing big scoring chances, they've been of good defense and

1099
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,920
Speaker 3: they've been an average team overall coming in from league

1100
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 3: to they right around even and expect a goal difference.

1101
00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:36,919
Speaker 3: They've been unfortunate to be as low in the table

1102
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 3: as they are in the regression. In the relegation fight,

1103
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 3: Toulouse is creating just over one point one next seaper match,

1104
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 3: So I just find it hard to see to Louse

1105
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:47,960
Speaker 3: getting margin and separation here even at home. Again, another

1106
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,000
Speaker 3: situation like my best bet in La Liga, where I

1107
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:52,319
Speaker 3: just think these two teams are very comparable. You could

1108
00:54:52,320 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 3: actually make the case that Jacksonville has been better both

1109
00:54:54,200 --> 00:54:56,480
Speaker 3: coming up from last season where Toulouse was slightly better

1110
00:54:56,560 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 3: but not much better. So these teams are just kind

1111
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 3: of right around each other, and I'm going to take

1112
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:03,320
Speaker 3: the dog and the plus a half every time in

1113
00:55:03,440 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 3: that situation.

1114
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 1: Right, speaking of dogs, speaking of a Jack SiO, our

1115
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:12,279
Speaker 1: underdog three leg parlay will start there.

1116
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny. When Brentford was up to nil, I

1117
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 3: went and had to go pull up like what was

1118
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:19,359
Speaker 3: Michael's underdog? I was beat his underdog, like we're gonna

1119
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:20,960
Speaker 3: hit it again because that was the first bet.

1120
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 2: I was like, oh, never say that.

1121
00:55:22,560 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 3: Brentford's got it. It's a winner. And then we didn't

1122
00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:30,080
Speaker 3: even win the first leg, so we're back. We're due

1123
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:33,480
Speaker 3: again to hit the big underdog parlay officially once again,

1124
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 3: and I'm gonna get it started with a Jackson Oh

1125
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 3: plus three hundred this weekend. I just think that for

1126
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:41,720
Speaker 3: the same reason I think they're undervalued in the matchup.

1127
00:55:41,719 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 3: I think plus three hundred on a coin flip game

1128
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 3: is a pretty good bet. So I'm gonna take them

1129
00:55:46,000 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 3: plus three hundred for the same reasons that I'm taking

1130
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:48,640
Speaker 3: them plus a half.

1131
00:55:49,680 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 1: I was going back at forth here and I went

1132
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:57,279
Speaker 1: with the price. I will reveal the other team after

1133
00:55:57,400 --> 00:56:00,160
Speaker 1: I say through. The team I bet on was like

1134
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:02,920
Speaker 1: Leads at six to one against Newcastle. I think it's

1135
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 1: just a classic cell high spot on a team Newcastle.

1136
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:10,799
Speaker 1: They're really good. Nobody can deny it anymore. We tried

1137
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 1: our best, but we can't. But the price is too

1138
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 1: big and Leads is always going to be a dangerous underdog.

1139
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:18,919
Speaker 1: They can disrupt any team in the league if they're

1140
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 1: on and if you're off just a little bit. Newcastle's

1141
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 1: lost once this entire year. I think the price is

1142
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:29,719
Speaker 1: big enough on Leeds United to make it two for

1143
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:32,320
Speaker 1: the Magpies. And the other team that I was signing

1144
00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:34,839
Speaker 1: between was Villa at four to one, so we'll see

1145
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 1: what happens. Here is you can pretty much pencil in

1146
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:39,959
Speaker 1: a Villa win and Elites loss.

1147
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:45,760
Speaker 2: Bij you're al Miria plus two twenty five against Kadiz.

1148
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 2: I don't get this price whatsoever. I basically factory in

1149
00:56:50,800 --> 00:56:53,360
Speaker 2: home field advantage. I have this match projected dead on

1150
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 2: at a pick. I mean Kadiz. They're terrible, like they're

1151
00:56:57,200 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 2: at a minus fifteen point nine expected gold different different

1152
00:57:00,239 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 2: in only fourteen matches. They've created ten point two expected

1153
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:07,120
Speaker 2: goals in fourteen matches. They are one of the worst

1154
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 2: offenses in all of Europe. Al Maria is only sitting

1155
00:57:10,080 --> 00:57:11,840
Speaker 2: again a minus seven point nine expected goal of the

1156
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:14,399
Speaker 2: French one. You look right before the break al Maria

1157
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 2: they got completely pasted by Barcelona allowed four expected goals,

1158
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 2: but the other three matches before that they played via Real,

1159
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 2: Souta Vigo and Gatape the only allowed a total of

1160
00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:26,280
Speaker 2: one point seven expected goals in those three matches. So

1161
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:29,440
Speaker 2: this is one of those matches that I just do

1162
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 2: not get this price, and I do not get why

1163
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 2: Kadiz is actually a slight favorite. I think it should

1164
00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:36,640
Speaker 2: be a dead on pick them. So al Maria plus

1165
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:37,680
Speaker 2: two twenty five for me.

1166
00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 1: That three leg money line parlay piece out a nice

1167
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,880
Speaker 1: ninety to one. Good way to go into the new year.

1168
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 1: Feel good about this one, Yeah, this one, this one,

1169
00:57:48,880 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 1: This is probably the week. Actually this is the weak

1170
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 1: all right, Well, let's close this one out as we

1171
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:56,720
Speaker 1: always do with our favorite bets in the Premier League

1172
00:57:56,760 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 1: for the upcoming match week. Anthony and I are on

1173
00:58:00,440 --> 00:58:02,440
Speaker 1: the same side in different bets. I think we were

1174
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 1: the same way last week as well. I like Brighton

1175
00:58:06,560 --> 00:58:08,439
Speaker 1: on the money line. I think it's a good sell

1176
00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:15,480
Speaker 1: high spot on Arsenal, Brighton's at home, Brighton's dangerous, Arsenal's

1177
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 1: really good. BJ Arsenal's really really.

1178
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 2: Good, really good.

1179
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:21,120
Speaker 3: Try to tell them.

1180
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 1: But Brighton, they're not that much worse, and they're at home,

1181
00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:31,040
Speaker 1: and they've got the better manager. So I'll take Brighton

1182
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:34,280
Speaker 1: and hole Balve beyond on the money line plus two fifty.

1183
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:38,200
Speaker 3: Anthony, you can pretty much pencil in what all of

1184
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 3: us are going to do is our best bets. I'm

1185
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:42,760
Speaker 3: gonna take an underdog plus a half, Michael's gonna take

1186
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 3: the big money line underdog, and then bj is always

1187
00:58:44,840 --> 00:58:46,520
Speaker 3: going to have a both teams to score. No although

1188
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 3: days going be just going a little off script this week.

1189
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:51,520
Speaker 3: I like Brighton plus a half minus one twenty five.

1190
00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:53,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be the coward. I'm gonna take the half

1191
00:58:53,640 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 3: a goal because I could very well see this match

1192
00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 3: ending in a draw. But Brighton has been based onderline

1193
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:01,240
Speaker 3: numbers the four the fifth best team in the league.

1194
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:03,080
Speaker 3: And while I do have Arsenal as the second best

1195
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 3: team right now, you can't tell me that the Gunners

1196
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:08,600
Speaker 3: aren't a little bit at the top of their market

1197
00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 3: right here. Everybody's talking about them winning the league. Everybody's

1198
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 3: talking about how dominant they've been Oda Guard and Socca

1199
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:17,000
Speaker 3: and Martinelli. But I think there was a clear drop

1200
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 3: off in that first half. We saw it where jay

1201
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 3: Zu's not being there hurts this attack, and it didn't

1202
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:24,600
Speaker 3: matter in that game again because Odagard had so much

1203
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:26,360
Speaker 3: time on the ball to eventually figure out how to

1204
00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 3: break down this defense. But I don't think we'll get

1205
00:59:28,640 --> 00:59:32,040
Speaker 3: that against Brighton. I think Brighton's a much better disrupting team.

1206
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:34,600
Speaker 3: They're a better pressing team, they're better on the ball.

1207
00:59:35,120 --> 00:59:38,360
Speaker 3: They're gonna cause problems in this matchup. Just not that

1208
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:41,520
Speaker 3: long ago. Arsenal was right around the same price at Brentford.

1209
00:59:41,880 --> 00:59:44,080
Speaker 3: Now they're at Brighton and the same number. So I

1210
00:59:44,240 --> 00:59:46,800
Speaker 3: like the Seagulls, who are clearly better than Brentford at

1211
00:59:46,880 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 3: home plus a half best bet.

1212
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:50,920
Speaker 1: All right, BJ take us one.

1213
00:59:51,560 --> 00:59:53,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like south Hampton plus half a goal in

1214
00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:56,960
Speaker 2: Miocene twenty at Fulham. You know, Southampton's first match under

1215
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 2: Nathan joneson not go according to plan three to one

1216
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 2: loss to but they did hold Brighton to just point

1217
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:05,440
Speaker 2: six expected goals and five penalty box shots. And Southampton

1218
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:07,600
Speaker 2: is one of the biggest positive regression candidates over the

1219
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:10,000
Speaker 2: second half of the season. They're currently sitting with a

1220
01:00:10,080 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 2: minus sixteen actual goal differential and a minus three point

1221
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:16,480
Speaker 2: six expected goal differential. All of that positive regression is

1222
01:00:16,520 --> 01:00:19,280
Speaker 2: probably going to become defensively because they have allowed twenty

1223
01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:22,400
Speaker 2: eight goals off of twenty point eight expected. Their goalkeeper,

1224
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:25,760
Speaker 2: Gavin be Benezou, he's been really, really bad. He's had

1225
01:00:25,760 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 2: a minus five minus point five to two post shot

1226
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:31,920
Speaker 2: actually plus minus per match over a full season. That

1227
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,360
Speaker 2: would be by far the worst mark ever in Premier

1228
01:00:34,440 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 2: League history since they started tracking the stat in twenty

1229
01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:41,200
Speaker 2: six sixteen. So the point being that he can't continue

1230
01:00:41,240 --> 01:00:43,200
Speaker 2: to be this bad. The flip side of that coin

1231
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:45,680
Speaker 2: is full on their way over priced here, Like they're

1232
01:00:45,720 --> 01:00:47,919
Speaker 2: still the worst defense in the Premier League. Like they're

1233
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 2: allowing one point six expected goals per ninety minutes. They've

1234
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:53,560
Speaker 2: allowed thirty one big scoring chances. They beat Crystal Palace

1235
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:56,000
Speaker 2: three nothing when Palace was down to nine men for

1236
01:00:56,160 --> 01:00:58,320
Speaker 2: sixty five minutes. So this is a perfect cell high

1237
01:00:58,320 --> 01:01:01,320
Speaker 2: spot on Fulham and bilos on Southampton. So like Saints

1238
01:01:01,320 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 2: plus have a goal at minus one twenty.

1239
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:07,360
Speaker 1: All right, that'll do it for another episode of Wonderful

1240
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 1: Soccer betting Podcasts, presented to you by the Action Network

1241
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:13,920
Speaker 1: and our friends at bet three sixty five for Anthony

1242
01:01:14,000 --> 01:01:16,000
Speaker 1: de Bundo, for b J Cunningham, I'm Michael Lebuff. We

1243
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:18,000
Speaker 1: will see you on the other side of the weekend.

1244
01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1245
01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:32,720
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1246
01:01:32,760 --> 01:01:35,840
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler