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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordert. Join us each day

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Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or

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Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Stephen Shark of the

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Speaker 2: Short grew of writing Homer's Remains at Risk and cease

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Speaker 2: Fire Prospects a week pointing to a prolonged geopolitical disruption

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Speaker 2: to global flows, Stephen joins us now for more. Stephen,

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Speaker 2: welcome to the program. Let's just run with the base

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Speaker 2: case as presented by the President. Things can change, I

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Speaker 2: know that, but let's run with two to three weeks.

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Speaker 2: Where would this energy market be? Where will it be

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Speaker 2: in two to three weeks?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely so, with the rate we're going right now the

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Speaker 3: way we've modeled it for the next actually three weeks,

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Speaker 3: the current timeframe for the spot market right now is

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Speaker 3: one hundred and three dollars at barrel. What was our

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Speaker 3: top was our initial we'll call it our one stemit

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Speaker 3: deviation envelope, and all of the simulations that we've run

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Speaker 3: potential price pats. Now that we are well beyond that,

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Speaker 3: what do we do we begin to look for that

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Speaker 3: next And because of the volatile that's been introduced, we

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Speaker 3: have extremely fat tails on the distributions of potential outcomes.

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Speaker 3: Three weeks sense we could be looking at one hundred

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Speaker 3: and thirty three dollars in oil. So John, what we're

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Speaker 3: essentially looking at or doing is the United States. It's

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Speaker 3: oil and the contract that we're following in this case

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Speaker 3: nomics to WTI.

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Speaker 4: That's been the cheapest barrel in the world.

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Speaker 3: And now what's happened is the arbitrage is well established.

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Speaker 3: So now you're having a tremendous amount of buying interest

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Speaker 3: coming in from Asia, coming in from Europe, and hence

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Speaker 3: we've been the cheapest barrel. But because of that buying in,

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Speaker 3: just because you just can't get oil from Asian refiner

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Speaker 3: from U typical sources, you're going to start bidding that

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Speaker 3: oil higher. And that's what I think we're starting to

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Speaker 3: see in the Gulf Coast is that US prices have

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Speaker 3: been suppressed over the past four weeks, but that now

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Speaker 3: it's starting to catch up to reality and therefore over

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Speaker 3: the next three weeks, as this disruption continues, certainly the

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Speaker 3: path is higher to our second tier envelope, which is,

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Speaker 3: like I said, one hundred and thirty one hundred and

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Speaker 3: thirty four dollars a hour.

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Speaker 1: Is that high enough to cause demand destruction for people

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Speaker 1: to pull back on their use of oil or their

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Speaker 1: ability to get oil enough to get oil prices back

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Speaker 1: lower in the near.

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Speaker 3: Term based on recent observations and economic theory, noe, it's

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Speaker 3: not there yet.

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Speaker 4: We have to keep in mind that.

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Speaker 3: Demand elasticities for guest line have changed tremendously. I'll give

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Speaker 3: myself as an example. I drive plugging electric hydrid. I

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Speaker 3: fill my car up about once every two to three months. Now,

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Speaker 3: juxtapose this back to two thousand and eight when oil

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Speaker 3: prices peaked that one hundred and forty nine dollars a barrow.

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Speaker 3: I was filling my SUV up every single week. So

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Speaker 3: that was an incredible pain point that has changed over

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Speaker 3: the last fifteen years.

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Speaker 4: So that part was that is.

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Speaker 3: So what has happened is back then, if we adjust

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Speaker 3: for inflation, three dollars and sixty cents at the pump,

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Speaker 3: was that that that pressure point, that's that inflection point

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Speaker 3: where demand started to fall off. We are higher because

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Speaker 3: we've introduced more variables into the equation.

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Speaker 4: So based on what we've seen recently, I e. We're

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Speaker 4: still a.

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Speaker 3: Dollar below a gallon where we were in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 3: and that did not destroy demand. So we'll look to

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Speaker 3: see oil prices up of one hundred and fifty hundred

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Speaker 3: and sixty dollars a level before I think we start

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Speaker 3: to see the market correct and demand destruction kick in.

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Speaker 5: Steven, are we done? You think what verbal intervention has

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Speaker 5: its run its course?

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Speaker 3: Well, are we doing verbal? So you're trying to draw

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Speaker 3: on the market or try and do I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think it's just something as an analyst,

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Speaker 3: as a trade you just have to endure.

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Speaker 4: And so this is why we look at the spread markets.

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Speaker 3: So then the forward curve and any given market is

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Speaker 3: your indication of where we're potentially going. And so when

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Speaker 3: we see that, when we look at what is transpired

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Speaker 3: now with the past.

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Speaker 4: The week in wt I with the curve.

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Speaker 3: That is an extreme bid or price increase on the

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Speaker 3: front end of the curve for those prompt barrels, but

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Speaker 3: that is now also starting to cascade down long from

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Speaker 3: the curve. And then we look at a relationship between WTI,

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Speaker 3: Dubai or you. For instance, we have oil production in

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Speaker 3: West Texas delivered into Houston that is trading at a

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Speaker 3: twelve dollars discount to the global price of oil, and

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Speaker 3: that arbitr excuse me, and there's a backgradation along that,

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Speaker 3: meaning that there's a strong bid for West Texas oil

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Speaker 3: and hence why we're still bullish on this market. And

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Speaker 3: so regardless, you could verbally, you could address in the

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Speaker 3: market and say anything you want. The market is reality,

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Speaker 3: and what the reality is telling us, it's that prices

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Speaker 3: are here higher and they're going to be higher for longer,

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Speaker 3: certainly over the next three weeks.

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Speaker 5: Well, energy companies capitalized by actually reinvesting and expanding.

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Speaker 3: Production eventually, but what we'll see now, and if you're

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Speaker 3: looking at quarterly earnings, quarterly earnings for if you are

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Speaker 3: a refiner, looked the great I mean, you have diesel

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Speaker 3: fuel that's trading out one hundred and seventy dollars a

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Speaker 3: barrel against one hundred dollars crude oil, or guess Liane

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Speaker 3: trading out one hundred and thirty dollars a barrel against

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Speaker 3: one hundred dollars oil. So the refinery margins are going

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Speaker 3: to look extremely great coming through the first quarter. Now

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Speaker 3: as we transition to this second quarter, as we've said

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Speaker 3: that US prices are starting to catch up, so that

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Speaker 3: is going to be a bigger hit now that that

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Speaker 3: is what has been a boom from Golf Coast refineries,

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Speaker 3: that wide margin between product.

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Speaker 4: Prices and crude oil prices. That's catching up, and oil prices.

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Speaker 3: Are catching up, and that's going to begin to squeeze margins,

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Speaker 3: so we're going to see a lot of volatility. What

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Speaker 3: was good for refiners last quarter is shaping up to

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Speaker 3: be especially when demand is starting to pick up coming

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Speaker 3: into the second quarter. So you've got the double wheremy

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Speaker 3: of domestic oil prices catching up to the global price

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Speaker 3: of oil at a time second quarter going into summer

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Speaker 3: where demand for the output of the refinery is going

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Speaker 3: to surge.

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Speaker 2: Stephen, I don't just want to talk about price. I

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Speaker 2: want to talk about shortages and outright shortages. This from

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Speaker 2: the Australian Prime Minister. We mentioned his comment earlier on

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Speaker 2: today over the coming weeks, if you can switch the

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Speaker 2: catch in the train or bus or tramp to work,

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Speaker 2: do so. The EU Commission suggesting people travel less across Europe.

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Speaker 2: You can track, You've got visibility on the tankers that

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Speaker 2: are arriving and won't be arriving. You can see the

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Speaker 2: cushion that some of these countries have got the supply,

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Speaker 2: they've got the inventories. How close are we to a

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Speaker 2: shortage where these governments are actively tanning the people to

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Speaker 2: stop doing things in the same way that they are

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Speaker 2: in Asia at the moment.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely so.

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Speaker 3: Looking at the problem month, which has about three more weeks,

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Speaker 3: that time frame that the President supposedly says we're going

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Speaker 3: to be out of there or wrap this up. The

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Speaker 3: market's highly skeptical, So I'll give it that three week

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Speaker 3: time range where we'll start to see, certainly economies in

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Speaker 3: the Far East, and now we're starting to see economies

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Speaker 3: because that Atlantic basin spread is starting to tighten up,

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Speaker 3: economies in Europe begin to seize. Up here in the

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Speaker 3: United States, oil inventors are sitting.

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Speaker 4: Out of three.

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Speaker 3: We just got the weekly update yesterday sitting out of

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Speaker 3: three year high. So there is oil here, but the

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Speaker 3: problem is it's not where it.

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Speaker 4: Needs to be.

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Speaker 3: So even though we do have and the President might

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Speaker 3: want to say buy American oil, that's great, but tanker

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Speaker 3: logistics limitations, there's just a limit to how much stack.

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Speaker 4: Can sate that.

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Speaker 3: So while here in the US, as we said, oil

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Speaker 3: prices or excuse me, oil supplies are fat three year highs,

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Speaker 3: they're really being the seaze up and that's why we're

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Speaker 3: starting to see the Brent mark it or WTI now

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Speaker 3: outperforming Brent at this point because European buyers refineries are

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Speaker 3: coming out of their once they come out of the

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Speaker 3: refined maintenance season, they're going to be buying a lot

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Speaker 3: more oil, a lot more US oil, but there is

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Speaker 3: a limit to how much. So we are two to

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Speaker 3: three weeks away from a shortage that we're already seeing

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Speaker 3: that that's going to grow.

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Speaker 4: Exponentially over the next couple of weeks. Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. So here's the

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Speaker 2: laces this morning. The President's stirring investor anxiety, pledging more

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Speaker 2: aggressive action in a round without concrete steps to reopen

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Speaker 2: the stradit for Merz at Mills of Raymond James, writing,

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Speaker 2: the clear desire of the US and a round to

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Speaker 2: wind down the wall will need to be reconciled within

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Speaker 2: the very narrow diplomatic pathway it joins US. Now for

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Speaker 2: more ed, welcome to the program. Can you describe to

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Speaker 2: us in a way you've described it to clients for

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Speaker 2: the next two to three weeks might look.

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Speaker 6: Like, Yeah, John, I think that there's going to be

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Speaker 6: an intensity of the operations. I think there is a

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Speaker 6: higher probability of a ground operation.

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Speaker 4: I think that the market is prepared for.

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Speaker 6: At Raymond James, we've been highlighting to clients that it

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Speaker 6: will take a while for things to return to normal

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Speaker 6: once the straits of Hormoz has reopened. Our energy team

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Speaker 6: has been doing a considerable amount of work on that.

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Speaker 6: And I do think that there has been an expectation

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Speaker 6: in this market that things were going to go faster,

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Speaker 6: quicker and cleaner. That expected, and we have been telling

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Speaker 6: folks some cynicism here has been warranted, and the cynicism

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Speaker 6: has actually been the thing that has played out consistently

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Speaker 6: over this last month.

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Speaker 5: And when you say ground operation, do you mean to

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Speaker 5: open up the straight of Hormoves for normal traffic or

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Speaker 5: do you mean for military boots on the ground to

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Speaker 5: go seize the uranium.

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Speaker 6: I think, Amory, that's to be determined. I do think

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Speaker 6: that there is a history of President Trump. Once he

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Speaker 6: has built up a military capability, he uses that military capability.

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Speaker 6: So when we see how many troops have been positioned

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Speaker 6: in the area, I do think that there is an

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Speaker 6: obvious desire to reopen the straits of her moves. But

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Speaker 6: President Trump last night did talk about that as something

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Speaker 6: more natural than kinetic. There has been these conversations about

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Speaker 6: the potential operations to seize uranium. To me, that's probably

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Speaker 6: the higher probability. I don't know exactly how robust that

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Speaker 6: is going to be. I think some of that is

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Speaker 6: to be determined, but very clearly Emory here, President Trump

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Speaker 6: is building up pressure and was telling even the kind

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Speaker 6: of Iranians last night they have a choice still here

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Speaker 6: that the operations can get much more intense and less

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Speaker 6: they negotiate.

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Speaker 5: And why give this speech last night? It felt like

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Speaker 5: the tone of this speech was trying to get the

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Speaker 5: American people on board that maybe it should have been

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Speaker 5: given the first week or two of the operation.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Emory, That's what we were discussing internally here at

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Speaker 6: Raymond James, because I think there was a hope and

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Speaker 6: an expectation that a speech a month into this was

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Speaker 6: a speech to wrap it up. The tone of the

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Speaker 6: speech was the first real rationalization directly from President Trump

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Speaker 6: speaking to the American people of exactly why and almost

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Speaker 6: preparing the American people for what comes next. When you

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Speaker 6: have all of those comparisons to the lengths of other wars,

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Speaker 6: it is somewhat ominous. We are hopeful that this is

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Speaker 6: two to three weeks from now, but there's no guarantees.

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Speaker 6: I think that there was a hope that it was

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Speaker 6: only going to be kind of less than a month

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Speaker 6: when this started a month ago. Now we're already extending

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Speaker 6: those timelines. So making that pitch to the American people

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Speaker 6: because things are probably going to escalate before they de

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Speaker 6: escalate is kind of my biggest takeaway from that speech.

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Speaker 1: Emmory, This to me is the key pointed that this

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Speaker 1: was essentially preparing the American people for whatever is to

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Speaker 1: come next. Do you have a sense of what that

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Speaker 1: could look like and how much it will come in

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Speaker 1: concert with United Arab Emirates, with Saudi Arabia, with other alliances.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we're seeing kind of more of those alliances that

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Speaker 6: take place. We're looking at the fact that AARAN in

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Speaker 6: their initial response, probably kind of drew the region more

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Speaker 6: together than split it. One of the key questions that

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Speaker 6: we've been asking has been how long does the United

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Speaker 6: States and Israel stay together? Because there is a big concern,

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Speaker 6: especially in the national security community that I talk to,

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Speaker 6: about whether or not the endgame for the United States

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Speaker 6: and the endgame for Israel are going to be aligned,

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Speaker 6: especially if this goes much longer than mid April here

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Speaker 6: and politically you do want to have those alliances, but

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Speaker 6: usually those alliances happened before an attack. Build those cases,

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Speaker 6: get the American people on board. As we've seen gas prices,

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Speaker 6: as we've seen inflation, as we've seen other impacts of this,

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Speaker 6: As we see a market reaction to that, the American

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Speaker 6: people are going to put more and more pressure on

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Speaker 6: members of Congress in on this administration to wrap this

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Speaker 6: up sooner rather than later.

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Speaker 2: And let's just stay on international relations. There's a very

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Speaker 2: strange dynamic to the addressed by the President yesterday, and

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Speaker 2: it's as follows. For a long long time this country,

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Speaker 2: successive governments have wanted to keep the likes of China

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Speaker 2: out of these regions, keep them well away, contain any

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Speaker 2: international ambition they might have. And now we're almost in

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Speaker 2: fighting the men to help solve a problem. Do we

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Speaker 2: really want the Chinese military in the straight offormers No.

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Speaker 6: And when we've talked to some of the national security

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Speaker 6: advisors and kind of China contacts that we have, there

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Speaker 6: is almost zero expectation that a Chinese military will be involved.

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Speaker 6: But you do have the fact that Trump and she

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Speaker 6: will ultimately meet here over the next month and a half.

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Speaker 6: And Trump always pulls things together, and to the extent

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Speaker 6: that there are things that he is going to be

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Speaker 6: asking China for, China is going to be asking us for,

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Speaker 6: kind of adding in, hey, this is more of your

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Speaker 6: problem than my problem. Is really the subcontext of everything

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Speaker 6: that he's saying with this tracer for moves, it's like, yeah,

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Speaker 6: it's a big issue, but maybe Chinese is more, Maybe

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Speaker 6: NATO members outside of the United States needs more, maybe

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Speaker 6: France needs is more. In particular, come in protect that

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Speaker 6: it is not just our problem. I think this here

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Speaker 6: is a reflection John over the fact that he does

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Speaker 6: feel as if everyone has been willing to rally to

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Speaker 6: his side on what he sees as an existential threat

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Speaker 6: to the United States into the world.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us more Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 2: Equities lower following back to back gains with the presidents

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Speaker 2: turning up the pressure on a run once again. Sarah

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Speaker 2: Hunt of Valpied saxon Words, writing, higher energy prices post

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Speaker 2: a real challenge to both earnings and the consumer. But

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Speaker 2: given the multiple compression and equity markets, valuations aren't becoming attractive.

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Speaker 2: Sarah joins us now for more, Sarah, good morning, Good morning.

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Speaker 2: Start with earnings. Is the outlook for earning solid or

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Speaker 2: analysts just really really slow.

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Speaker 7: I think that there is a problem with earnings that

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Speaker 7: is going to come through from energy, and it looked

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Speaker 7: like if we were going to get some sort of

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Speaker 7: a change over the last couple of days, maybe that

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Speaker 7: would be okay. I'm starting to think as that weill

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Speaker 7: back curve starts to move higher. I don't see how

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Speaker 7: earnings are going up for twenty twenty six. I think

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Speaker 7: that there to be some sort of a balance, and

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Speaker 7: I don't know where that balance is yet, but I

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Speaker 7: think that we are getting a little over our skis

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Speaker 7: on the arning.

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Speaker 2: Makes the question if I should begin excited about multiple

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Speaker 2: compression with that in mind.

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Speaker 7: I think, you know, it's amazing you write something a

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Speaker 7: day ago and the next day it's already different, which

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Speaker 7: is why you know there's a lot of whiplash going

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Speaker 7: on on the narratives. I think that there was. You

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Speaker 7: could see how much the market was anticipating some sort

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Speaker 7: of an off ramp. It looked like there might be

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Speaker 7: some sort of discussions that might get to something. The

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Speaker 7: fact that we're back in this place a day later

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Speaker 7: tells you that this is going to be at least

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Speaker 7: for the next foreseeable whatever future that is twenty four

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Speaker 7: to forty eight hours, you are going to have more issues.

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Speaker 7: To your point about trying to get back to normal,

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Speaker 7: I think that because there was normal illustraight of horror moves,

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Speaker 7: it was okay that the Red Sea wasn't back to normal.

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Speaker 7: I think there's going to be a huge push to

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Speaker 7: get anything back as soon as you get it open.

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Speaker 7: But when that's going to be we don't know. The

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Speaker 7: longer that takes the higher energy prices are that's going

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Speaker 7: to feed through the earnings and people are not going

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Speaker 7: to like that. So yes, I think that that definitely

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Speaker 7: that tempers my usiasm for valuation compression because I don't

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Speaker 7: think that you're going to get a solution as quickly

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Speaker 7: as we thought just a day ago.

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Speaker 1: So when I hear you talking, I'm like, oh, yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is the reason why I'm nervous. And then when

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Speaker 1: I read your commentary, you see opportunities out there, I think,

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Speaker 1: what am I thinking about? I just obviously need to

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Speaker 1: go take a walk. So how do you get the

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Speaker 1: conviction to decide to buy given the level of uncertainty?

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Speaker 4: Have there really been.

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Speaker 1: Enough selloffs in specific sectors or names to justify taking

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Speaker 1: that risk.

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Speaker 7: I think that that's I think that's sort of the key.

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Speaker 7: And I loved Jim zelter on earlier this morning because

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Speaker 7: he was like, take a step back, look, zoom out,

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Speaker 7: because it's also a timing question. Right over time, we

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Speaker 7: know that market problems eventually get resolved. Am I looking

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Speaker 7: at a five year window, at two year window a

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Speaker 7: six month window? In a six month window, I can

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Speaker 7: see a lot of volatility, and I would not be

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Speaker 7: as sanguine on a six month basis as I would

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Speaker 7: be on a longer term basis. Is there going to

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Speaker 7: be more volatility this year?

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Speaker 3: Yes?

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Speaker 7: Do people are still thinking that we end the year

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Speaker 7: either higher than we are today or a flat to

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Speaker 7: where we started. That's really going to depend on the

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Speaker 7: next on the developments over the next couple of months.

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Speaker 7: And I think that a month ago this was let's

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Speaker 7: see how long it takes. Well, we're into a period

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Speaker 7: of time now where that compression and just the traffic

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Speaker 7: jam of getting through there is going to be a

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Speaker 7: problem and is going to keep energy levels high, and

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Speaker 7: that's going to be hard for growth. I don't see

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Speaker 7: how that doesn't impact earning.

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Speaker 4: So taking a.

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Speaker 1: Step back, I took a walk and I'm thinking, well,

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Speaker 1: what has structurally changed if you take a look at

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Speaker 1: a three to five year horizon, And what a lot

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Speaker 1: of people keep saying is maybe not the equity story,

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Speaker 1: not the AI story, but does the bond market story

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Speaker 1: change given suddenly the renewed need for fiscal the renewed

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Speaker 1: need to sort of support from a debt financing perspective,

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Speaker 1: A lot of social initiatives that are only getting more current.

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Speaker 7: Well, that turns into a much longer, deeper discussion about

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Speaker 7: what is the point at which the government cannot keep

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Speaker 7: throwing money at things? And at some point you would

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Speaker 7: think that there is a point at which bonds start

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Speaker 7: to get higher priced because everyone's worried about the fiscal

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Speaker 7: Every time I think that's to happen, it seems to

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Speaker 7: back off. So I don't know what that point is, right,

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Speaker 7: but it's true there should be a point. Maybe that's

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Speaker 7: why gold is sitting at forty five hundred dollars, because

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Speaker 7: people are going at some point every currency has a

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Speaker 7: problem because every government is too indebted. I don't know

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Speaker 7: what that point is, though, and that point keeps moving.

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Speaker 5: So why do you think the market is so fixated

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Speaker 5: on Trump's truths and just not looking at what he's doing.

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Speaker 5: Just this week again, another US aircraft carrier and two

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Speaker 5: destroyers were sent again to the region.

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Speaker 4: The troop build.

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Speaker 5: Up is consistent and it's getting higher.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 7: I don't know if people think that that is a

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Speaker 7: strategic move, if that is an actual move, if that

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Speaker 7: is a syops move, I don't know. And I think

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Speaker 7: that the problem with dealing with a situation like this,

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Speaker 7: that's so fluid, and everybody has something to say, and

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Speaker 7: everybody has an agenda. It makes it really difficult to

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Speaker 7: parse out what's actually going to happen. You know, maybe

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Speaker 7: we could just be looking threatening. Maybe we're actually going

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Speaker 7: to go and put boots on the ground. People said no,

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Speaker 7: then they said yes, and they said no. I don't

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Speaker 7: know what the answer is, but I think that trying

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Speaker 7: to parse out what's happening from what people are saying

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Speaker 7: is increasingly difficult. The market is obviously not necessarily buying

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Speaker 7: that to the extent that it was in the beginning.

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Speaker 4: So where do you hide?

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Speaker 7: The term hide is such a tough one because when

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Speaker 7: you're managing money, you have to be managing money, right.

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Speaker 7: But I think this goes back to where we were

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Speaker 7: sort of positioned into the beginning of the year, which

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Speaker 7: is the balance sheets, cashle all those things really matter.

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Speaker 7: All of the money that is being spent by the

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Speaker 7: mag seven has made the mag seven less attractive than

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Speaker 7: it was. I think that was a place where people spend.

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Speaker 4: A lot of time.

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Speaker 7: There was a lot of money in there. Some of

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Speaker 7: that's come out because people are worried about that spend.

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Speaker 7: There's still a lot of companies that have good cash flow,

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Speaker 7: decent balance sheets, and are doing business that will continue

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Speaker 7: to do it. I think growth is going to slow.

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Speaker 7: It just makes it more tricky.

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Speaker 2: And Video has done nothing half a months. Microsoft was

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Speaker 2: down pretty hard in the month of March. Alphabet down

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Speaker 2: to you mess it down by double digits. What's going

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Speaker 2: on with those names?

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Speaker 7: I think the big concern is they're all spending a

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Speaker 7: lot of money. They're all spending a lot of money,

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Speaker 7: and we're trying to figure out what the returns on

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Speaker 7: that money are going to be right now, since they're

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Speaker 7: all running into it. It was fine for Nvidia for

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Speaker 7: a while, then people get worried about it. If you

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Speaker 7: start to see anybody pull back on Capex, that's going

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Speaker 7: to give that whole sector a scare because everybody who's

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Speaker 7: spending a lot of money is now borrowing.

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Speaker 2: Do you think we're close to that moment learning that release.

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Speaker 7: I think we're closer than we were. I think we're

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Speaker 7: much closer than we were because you start to see

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Speaker 7: the electricity issues with data centers too. Right, Maine just

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Speaker 7: said no data centers for two years. We want to

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Speaker 7: see what happens.

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Speaker 2: There is a.

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Speaker 7: Conflict now between energy and data centers that there wasn't

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Speaker 7: before that this is just exacerbating. I mean, it was

442
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Speaker 7: there before, but it wasn't in the headlines in the

443
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Speaker 7: same way before. And now you're starting to see that,

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Speaker 7: and I think that that could kick something like that off,

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Speaker 7: and I think that could be problematic.

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Speaker 1: Is that the reason why people don't see necessarily big

447
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Speaker 1: tech being the obvious leader out of this potential rut

448
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Speaker 1: that we see in the equity market?

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Speaker 7: I think so. But on the other hand, I will

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00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 7: take the counter argument and also say they are in

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Speaker 7: the best position to weather this in the end. So

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Speaker 7: even if they do pull back CAPEX, even if they do,

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Speaker 7: even if people start to get really worried about that,

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Speaker 7: they're still generating a lot of cash. They're going to

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Speaker 7: generate a lot of cash. So to the extent that

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Speaker 7: those multiples have compressed a little bit, that probably makes

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Speaker 7: that part more attractive because you don't know enough about

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Speaker 7: what's going to happen with some of the other sectors

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Speaker 7: that are pulled back, like software, although I definitely think

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Speaker 7: that's going to be an and and not an or

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Speaker 7: for AI.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast bringing you the best

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