1 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: In the price of a barrel of crude oil was 2 00:00:07,240 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: at its lowest point in more than a decade. That 3 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: made for pretty cheap gas at the pump. But things 4 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: look very different today. It now costs almost three dollars 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,840 Speaker 1: at gallon to fill up your gas tank in the US. 6 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: So why has the price of fuel changed so dramatically? 7 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: How much higher can it go? And who will be 8 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: the winners and losers in the global economy. Welcome to Benchmark. 9 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: I'm Scott Landman, an economics editor with Bloomberg News in Washington, 10 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: and I'm Daniel Moss, economics rhiner and editor at Bloomberg 11 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:52,840 Speaker 1: Opinion in New York. Now, before Dan and I get 12 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: into a little debate about the economic side of this issue, 13 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: we're going to have one of our best in house 14 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: experts to talk the out oil. Haveavier Plush is chief 15 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: energy correspondent for Bloomberg News based in London. Haveavier, thanks 16 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 1: for joining us on Benchmark. My pleasure. So have your 17 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 1: brief history lesson. First, why did the price of oil 18 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 1: fall so far? Just a few years ago? In one 19 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 1: war is opaque? The oil cartel? In two thousand and fourteen, 20 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: OPEG was really worried that ushil production, so think about 21 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 1: North Dakota and Texas was increasing so much that at 22 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:34,400 Speaker 1: one point they were going to lose control of the market. 23 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 1: So what they did was to increase their own production, 24 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: bring the price down massively on the hope that everyone 25 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: else was gonna get more or less out of business. 26 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: It really wore that way. What happened. They created a 27 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 1: massive glot that depressed prices to less than thirty dollars 28 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: a barrel and brought the price of petrol or gas 29 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: in the United States petrol here in Europe significantly lower, 30 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: benefiting consumers. And since then, you know, obviously the American 31 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: producers have not exited the market, but the prices come 32 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: back up a fair amount. Why has it come back 33 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: so much in the last couple of years, Well, after 34 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: a couple of years of OPEC really trying that policy 35 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: of increasing their own production, trying to get the producers 36 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: of the United States out of business, they realized that 37 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 1: it's very difficult to go head ahead with the Texas producers. 38 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: So what they did was the opposite. They decided to 39 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: cut their own production. So Saudi Arabia made a deal 40 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: with Russia with this outside OPEG and it broke a 41 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: large qualition of oil producers that decided at the end 42 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 1: of two thousand and sixteen to reduce their production in 43 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,959 Speaker 1: the horb that they will bring prices up. It really 44 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: has worked and they have got Estra help. For one, 45 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: the global economy is doing a lot better than expected, 46 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: and that means that we are consuming more oil. Con 47 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: the production started to fall in places like Venezuela, where 48 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 1: political mismanagement has meant that production is probably close to 49 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: the lowest in thirty years. And then you have geopolitics. 50 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: The Middle East looks pretty nasty right now, and particularly 51 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: now that we have extra conscience about production in Iran 52 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: due to the new senstions from the United States. I 53 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 1: thought OPEC was a busted flush. I recall every couple 54 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: of years stories were written or at least a sign 55 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: that OPEC was a thing of the past. They couldn't 56 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: control anything anymore. The biggest, most influential producers were largely 57 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 1: outside OPEC. Why are we still even talking about these guys? 58 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: While I can tell you that in twenty years I 59 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: have been covering in OPEG, I have seen people declaring 60 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: OPEC that several times, and it has always survived every crisis, 61 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: and they have done a lot better than we expected. 62 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: You think about every time that Opeque cuts production, we 63 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 1: expecting that they're going to cheat quite a lot, and 64 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: that the cats will be about sixty percent of what 65 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 1: they promise. This time around, the big surprises they are 66 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: even the over the livery in the production cats are 67 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 1: a hundred and ten percent of what they use announced, 68 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 1: and that's a lot due to Saudi Arabia, which is 69 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 1: cutting more than enough to compensate for everyone else that 70 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: is cheating. The Saudis have really broad Opeque alive. Let's 71 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:34,039 Speaker 1: talk about Saudi Arabia. You know, another idea that's been 72 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: rammed down our throats is how Saudi Arabia's economy is 73 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: branching out in an entirely new direction. The reformist Crown 74 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: Prince wants to put oil behind him. The era of 75 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,840 Speaker 1: the hydro carbon in the Middle East is fading. How 76 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: does that play into all this? Saudi Arabia really wants 77 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 1: to diversify his economy, and he's saying that he wants 78 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 1: to cut his dependence on hydro carbon, but so far 79 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: it remains as soil dependent he has always been. Maybe 80 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: in the future, if all those reforms take place and 81 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: they are properly implemented, the Southist will need less oil 82 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 1: and probably lower prices. So far, what's happening is more 83 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: or less the opposite. While they are trying to implement 84 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 1: those reforms, they need a healthy economy, and that is 85 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: only happening you have a higher oil price. The International 86 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: Monetary Fund believes that Saudi Arabia needs something like eighty 87 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 1: five dollars a barrel to break even his his budget, 88 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 1: so that means that they really need even higher prices 89 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,719 Speaker 1: that we are experiencing now to to make it fiscally, 90 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: and that is going to be one of the reasons 91 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: why the Southis are trying to keep prices as high 92 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: as they can. However, how much has the increase in 93 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: American production fundamentally disrupted the oil market and made it 94 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: a lot harder to reach the kind of prices or 95 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: at least sustain at the kind of levels that you're 96 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 1: talking about. Well, US shell production is the biggest factor 97 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: and the biggest disruption that we have seen in the 98 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:13,839 Speaker 1: oil market in a very long time. Probably you have 99 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,239 Speaker 1: to go to the collapse of the Soviet Union about 100 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 1: thirty years ago to find something of that scale, just 101 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 1: giving you a couple of numbers to put things in perspective. 102 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:28,320 Speaker 1: At the pick about a decade ago, the United States 103 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: have net oil imports that includes good oil and refined 104 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 1: products like gasoline. On a net basis, the US was 105 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 1: important about twelve million barrels a day. That's about a 106 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 1: bit more than ten percent of global consumption. Next year 107 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:48,239 Speaker 1: according to JUS government forecast, that will go from twelve 108 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 1: to goin and a half. The last time that the 109 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 1: US imported on a net basis so little oil from 110 00:06:55,760 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: overseas producers was what Dwyis Howard was that the y House, 111 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,239 Speaker 1: more than sixty years ago. That gives you a sense 112 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: of how profound the disruption of US shale has been 113 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: for the oil market. How it sounds like you've just 114 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: slayed another sacred cow. As far as the oil industry concerned. 115 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: There's no US terminal decline. The US is the swing factor, 116 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 1: Yes it is. I mean that that has been one 117 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: of the biggest changes that we have seen. And what 118 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: we have seen also is that shell producers, every time 119 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: that old peg has attacked then and broad then low 120 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: prices meaning pain rather going out to business, they have 121 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: got better. They are now linear and miner, and they 122 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: can increase production faster than in the past. I was 123 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 1: in Midland at the center of the Permian in West 124 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: Texas earlier this year, and everyone thought, why, well, probably 125 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: in the past we needed seventy five to ninety dollars 126 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: to survive. Today we can do it at fifty dollars, 127 00:07:57,680 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: and that is a lot lower than where the oil 128 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: prices today. So what you're saying, or what we're talking 129 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: about here, is that the oil market has fundamentally changed 130 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: in some ways and in other ways it hasn't, and 131 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: some of these issues still remain as that right, Yes, 132 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: I mean Salthia Arabia is gonna still needing very high prices. 133 00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: OPEC has an influence on the market, but a lot 134 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: of what is going to happen now for OPEC to 135 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: be able to manipulate the price of oil is gonna 136 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,839 Speaker 1: depend on what is happening in the US, whether shale 137 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,719 Speaker 1: production is growing or not, and we know that is 138 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 1: rowing a lot. So then OPEC needs a bit of 139 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: help from the global economy. As long as the global 140 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 1: economy think about countries like India, China, Indonesia are doing well, 141 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: then OPEC probably will be able to put prices higher. 142 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: When that doesn't happen and global economic growth slows down, 143 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 1: then OPEC is going to be in deep trouble because 144 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: US shell production is unlikely to stop going. I'm glad 145 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 1: you mentioned China. What role is oil consumption in China 146 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: and its appetite for imports playing in this narrative? It 147 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 1: is very important. Is one of the biggest factors, as 148 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: big as the US. It is as big as the US. 149 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: China is very close to consume to import as much 150 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: oil as the United States. Is not consuming as much, 151 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 1: but China is really the big factor. And in the market, 152 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: the intensity of oil demand is not really slowing down 153 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: a lot. And what we have seen is when we 154 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 1: thought that maybe demand was slowing down because the Chinese 155 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 1: have already bowed a lot of cars and a lot 156 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: of tracks, etcetera, etcetera, we have seen another boom now 157 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: in oil demand. This is coming from the petrochemical industry 158 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 1: the Chinese and consuming a lot of plastic, really a lot. 159 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: So what are the forecasts, what are the smartest people 160 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 1: saying about where the price of oil will be, say 161 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 1: at the end eighteen or the end of twenty nineteen. 162 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,079 Speaker 1: Where do people see it going? And here is the problem. 163 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: The smartest people in the room say that the oil 164 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: price is gonna be anywhere from above a hundred dollars 165 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 1: to below fifty a barrel, And that very much depends 166 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 1: on what is your view of many factors on the market. 167 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 1: What's gonna happen with Venezuela, what is going to happen 168 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 1: with the tensions in the Middle East and in particularly 169 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: in Iran, what is going to happen with the global economy, 170 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: and what's happening with Opeque. But I'm gonna tell you something. 171 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: Usually it matters a lot in the oil market what 172 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: the South is. One. It may be that it takes 173 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: a bit of time to get what they want. Sometimes 174 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:43,719 Speaker 1: it could take years, But the South is usually can 175 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 1: get around with their oil price preferences or targets. They hate. 176 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 1: The Southeast hate the world target for the oil price. 177 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 1: I will call it what is their preference, And their 178 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: preference today is get the price of oil around eighty 179 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: dollars a barrel. So after all these years and all 180 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 1: these economic cycles, Saudi Arabia is still the federal reserve 181 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 1: of oil. You are absolutely right. The sudiast have been 182 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 1: and continue to be the central bank of the oil market. 183 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,319 Speaker 1: And it's not only because they can increase and decrease 184 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: production to manipulate the price of oil. The Salthias are 185 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 1: the only country in the planet that they are paying 186 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: billions of dollars to sustain a spare capacity. That means 187 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: that they are sitting into the capacity to increase their 188 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,560 Speaker 1: production at very short notice if it's needed, and that's 189 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: really their power use in money. In a geopolitical crisis, 190 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 1: something happens in Venezuela, the Saltis are going to be 191 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: the ones who can increase production in a matter of hours, 192 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 1: in a matter of days and bring new supplies to 193 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 1: fill the gap. That is where the South is played. 194 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: The role of the central bank of the oil market 195 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: one that they have been doing in the seventies. And 196 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 1: I don't see anything so futt that he's going to change. 197 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: In Javier, it's always educational talking to you. Thank you 198 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 1: so much for joining us on benchmark my pressure. So Dan, 199 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:29,839 Speaker 1: let's talk about the economic impact of oil. Now. I 200 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: think there's a really a lot here. You have Trump 201 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,680 Speaker 1: tweeting that prices are too high, then he pulls out 202 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 1: of the Iran nuclear deal, which pushes prices up. You've 203 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 1: got an American oil sector that's pumping so much shale 204 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:47,359 Speaker 1: oil that it's totally changed the dynamics of the global industry, 205 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 1: as Javier was talking about. And you have another producer, 206 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 1: Venezuela that's basically in total chaos. And also an economic 207 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 1: angle we're following closely. Here is the tax cut signed 208 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 1: into law by Trump that are being partly negated because 209 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: of rising gas prices. For me, I see a lot 210 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: of different factors going back and forth on the US economy, 211 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: on the global economy, But you seem to think that 212 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: it's really just the same story that we've been talking 213 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: about for the last thirty fifty years. Well, I'm not 214 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 1: saying the contours of that narrative haven't changed, but it 215 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: feels like the more people try to emphasize how it's 216 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: different this time, then the more it seems like it isn't. 217 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: It's kind of frustrating to see every time the oil 218 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: price rises x y z or z dollars. Well, we've 219 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 1: got to have a big, you know, naval gazing exercise 220 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 1: on what it means for the US economy, haven't we 221 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 1: moved on. Well, isn't it possible to see it in 222 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: a more nuanced way that that maybe things are a 223 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 1: little different than they were before, because you know, clear 224 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 1: really OPEC doesn't have the total domination power to adjust 225 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 1: oil prices, to control oil prices like they did in 226 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: the past, and they haven't been able to get rid 227 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: of the American oil industry to to knock them out. 228 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: In fact, they've only made America's oil sector stronger. And 229 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: maybe the way you're looking at it is that all 230 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 1: these forces have just made the story more boring than 231 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: it used to be. And boring is synonymous with good. 232 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: Is that what you're saying? In some ways, it's interesting 233 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: from a news perspective, but boring in that it doesn't 234 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 1: royal up the global economy as much as it used to, 235 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 1: and yet it does create some challenges for Saudi Arabia 236 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: and these other kind of large producers in the Middle East. 237 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: You know, I loved hearing Jave's overview. It was a 238 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 1: refreshing tonic to a lot of the hype that we 239 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: hear about the US domestic oil industry, about how Saudi 240 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: Arabia is supposedly changing. And you know, OPEX obituary appears 241 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: to have been written every couple of years, and Lazarus 242 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: like it's back. I'm having trouble figuring out whether the 243 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: most important thing is the broad narrative or whether it's 244 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: the little nuances where things clearly do change at the margin, 245 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 1: but cumulatively have they changed enough. Benchmark will be back 246 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: next week. Until then, you can find us on the 247 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com or Bloomberg app, and podcast 248 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 1: destinations such as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen. 249 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: We'd love it if you took the time to post 250 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: a review of the show so more listeners can find us. 251 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: You can also check us out on Twitter, follow me 252 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: at scott Landman Dan, You're at Moss Underscore Echo, and 253 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: our guest Javier is at Pavier v l a s two. 254 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: Benchmark is produced by tofor foreheaz. The head of Bloomberg 255 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: Podcasts is Francesca Levy. Thanks for listening, See you next time.