WEBVTT - The Canal, the Crash and the Ketamine - Pushkin's Reign of Error 0:00:15.410 --> 0:00:25.170 Pushkin. Hello, this is Tim Harford here, host of Cautionary Tales, 0:00:25.410 --> 0:00:28.450 the show that tells you stories of catastrophes from the 0:00:28.490 --> 0:00:32.010 past and explores what we can learn from them. Today, 0:00:32.170 --> 0:00:35.650 our podcast is taking over the Pushkin Network for a 0:00:35.810 --> 0:00:38.890 very special episode. I've invited some of the great and 0:00:38.930 --> 0:00:41.690 good from Pushkin to join me to give their take 0:00:41.850 --> 0:00:44.530 on the nature of mistakes and how we should think 0:00:44.530 --> 0:00:49.290 about them. Coming up, Nate Silver and Maria Khonnikova, hosts 0:00:49.330 --> 0:00:54.690 of Risky Business, on regretting mistakes and the mistake of regrets. 0:00:55.170 --> 0:00:59.250 You see that people are afraid of regretting selling a 0:00:59.290 --> 0:01:00.730 stock and then having it go up. 0:01:01.090 --> 0:01:03.810 They fear that more than they. 0:01:03.650 --> 0:01:06.250 Regret, you know, holding on to it and having it 0:01:06.330 --> 0:01:06.850 go down. 0:01:07.370 --> 0:01:11.930 And then Jonathan Goldstein from Heavyweight muses with author Sheila 0:01:12.010 --> 0:01:15.570 Hetty about how we should feel about mistakes based on 0:01:15.650 --> 0:01:20.770 her experiences with accidental ketamin, missing money, and a flying baby. 0:01:20.970 --> 0:01:23.130 I was on the ground and somebody threw me this child, 0:01:23.610 --> 0:01:26.650 and I remember thinking in that moment, you cannot drop 0:01:26.690 --> 0:01:27.410 this baby. 0:01:27.690 --> 0:01:29.890 But first, I want to kick things off with a 0:01:29.970 --> 0:02:02.010 classic cautionary tale, A strange happening in a canal. It's 0:02:02.170 --> 0:02:07.490 nineteen seventy eight, a dredging gang working for British Waterways 0:02:07.970 --> 0:02:12.330 a struggling with a stuff problem on the picturesque Chesterfield Canal. 0:02:13.210 --> 0:02:16.570 They're trying to strengthen a section of the canal's side wall, 0:02:17.130 --> 0:02:22.210 which means dredging away silt and removing submerged junk. That's 0:02:22.290 --> 0:02:25.410 not easy at the best of times. But what really 0:02:25.490 --> 0:02:29.770 has them stumped is a length of heavy iron chain. 0:02:30.570 --> 0:02:36.450 It's blocking their efforts and it simply refuses to budge. Eventually, 0:02:36.490 --> 0:02:40.450 the foreman calls in the dredging boat. The crew attaches 0:02:40.490 --> 0:02:44.010 a line to the chain and revs up the dredger's engines. 0:02:45.330 --> 0:02:52.530 It pulls, and it pulls, and at last that does 0:02:52.570 --> 0:02:58.170 the trick. With a sharp tug, the chain finally comes unstuck. 0:02:59.490 --> 0:03:02.210 The crew remove it and the block of wood attached 0:03:02.250 --> 0:03:05.570 to it, and then take a well earned break for lunch. 0:03:08.050 --> 0:03:12.850 Lunch is dudely interrupted by a policeman in a state 0:03:13.010 --> 0:03:17.890 of some excitement. He had been passing the normally tranquil 0:03:18.010 --> 0:03:24.010 waterway when he could not help but notice a large whirlpool. 0:03:24.130 --> 0:03:28.010 By the time the crew returned to the scene, the 0:03:28.050 --> 0:03:33.290 canal has gone All that remain are a number of 0:03:33.370 --> 0:03:37.570 stranded houseboats and pleasure cruisers, not to mention the dredger 0:03:37.610 --> 0:03:44.370 itself wallowing in mud. Those, of course, and a plug hole. 0:03:46.090 --> 0:03:48.730 The plug hole had been installed by the designer of 0:03:48.770 --> 0:03:53.770 the Chesterfield Canal more than two hundred years earlier, but 0:03:53.850 --> 0:03:56.690 all records of it had been destroyed in a wartime 0:03:56.850 --> 0:04:00.930 fire in the nineteen forties, since there were no dredging 0:04:01.010 --> 0:04:04.290 boats in seventeen seventy five when the canal was opened, 0:04:04.690 --> 0:04:08.050 it was designed to be easy to drain in sections 0:04:08.450 --> 0:04:11.090 to allow works to jump in and shovel out the 0:04:11.130 --> 0:04:16.170 accumulated silt. This particular section was a mile and a 0:04:16.250 --> 0:04:20.970 half long, and the entire stretch was now nothing but 0:04:21.130 --> 0:04:27.050 mud and the occasional rusted bicycle. The canal itself had 0:04:27.170 --> 0:04:32.570 gurgled off to join the nearby river Idol. One of 0:04:32.610 --> 0:04:35.970 the workmen explained, we didn't know there was a plug. 0:04:41.850 --> 0:04:44.730 I first heard this story from the book that inspired 0:04:44.850 --> 0:04:49.970 the Cautionary Tales podcast The World's Greatest Mistakes by Nigel Blundell. 0:04:50.490 --> 0:04:52.850 It's full of these kinds of stories that are funny 0:04:53.010 --> 0:04:56.330 or tragic or both. I read it when I was 0:04:56.370 --> 0:04:59.330 a boy, and decades later It's what inspired me to 0:04:59.410 --> 0:05:02.650 start making a podcast about mistakes and what we can 0:05:02.730 --> 0:05:05.610 learn from them. So what can we learn from a 0:05:05.730 --> 0:05:10.690 vanishing canal? There's the obvious if something really really hard 0:05:10.730 --> 0:05:13.610 to move, it might be wiser to leave it in place. 0:05:14.810 --> 0:05:17.970 There's another lesson too, but I'll come back to that later. 0:05:19.490 --> 0:05:22.930 Before that, it's time to introduce our first guests for 0:05:22.970 --> 0:05:27.170 the episode, Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, hosts of the 0:05:27.250 --> 0:05:32.130 excellent podcast Risky Business. Nate and Maria are dedicated to 0:05:32.250 --> 0:05:35.650 learning from mistakes, and their show is entirely about how 0:05:35.690 --> 0:05:41.330 to make better decisions. Nature's a statistician, Maria's a psychologist, 0:05:41.610 --> 0:05:45.370 and they're both journalists as well as high stakes poker players. 0:05:46.370 --> 0:05:49.170 It's their business to have a keen sense of risk 0:05:49.290 --> 0:05:54.010 and reward. When I asked them for some insight about mistakes, 0:05:54.530 --> 0:05:57.890 Maria really wanted to talk about the power of one thing, 0:05:58.090 --> 0:06:00.170 in particular, regret. 0:06:04.330 --> 0:06:08.810 Nate, are there any decisions lately that you didn't make? 0:06:08.850 --> 0:06:13.090 An now you're just experiencing a sense of regret, Because 0:06:13.130 --> 0:06:16.290 that's what we're going to talk about today, psychology of 0:06:16.330 --> 0:06:19.250 regret and how it affects our decision making. 0:06:19.530 --> 0:06:19.970 The things. 0:06:20.010 --> 0:06:23.730 We didn't do the risks, we didn't take the hands, 0:06:23.810 --> 0:06:27.850 we did not play, the bluffs, we did not run. 0:06:28.450 --> 0:06:31.490 In Everly, Maria, I started to think about poker hands, 0:06:31.570 --> 0:06:33.650 particularly a high stakes poker hand that I played maybe 0:06:33.690 --> 0:06:36.850 six months ago, where the short version is like a 0:06:36.930 --> 0:06:39.410 player made a bet that I thought was fairly likely 0:06:39.450 --> 0:06:40.930 to be a bluff. I had a weekend, but a 0:06:40.930 --> 0:06:43.570 hand that beat bluffs, and I had a strong spidey 0:06:43.650 --> 0:06:46.250 sense that it was worth a call, and it didn't 0:06:46.290 --> 0:06:48.890 call because, like I talked myself out it because the 0:06:48.890 --> 0:06:52.850 stakes were pretty high, right, So that's like regret about 0:06:52.890 --> 0:06:56.450 like knowing the right play and not doing it. And 0:06:56.490 --> 0:06:57.850 the stakes are high, but not so high that I 0:06:57.850 --> 0:07:00.530 couldn't like afford to have been wrung by any means, right, 0:07:00.570 --> 0:07:03.090 So that was still staying six months later. 0:07:03.770 --> 0:07:05.970 It's always those ones that we regret and that we 0:07:06.050 --> 0:07:08.170 think about over and over and over. 0:07:08.090 --> 0:07:08.450 Isn't it. 0:07:08.570 --> 0:07:13.130 Yeah, trying to avoid regret is something that can drive 0:07:13.170 --> 0:07:16.410 our decision making to an irrational degree because it's a 0:07:16.490 --> 0:07:19.930 feeling that's not good, right. We don't like feeling regret. 0:07:20.210 --> 0:07:22.210 I definitely know that, Like when it comes to poker, 0:07:22.250 --> 0:07:26.050 for instance, I always think more about the hands where 0:07:26.050 --> 0:07:28.170 I didn't do something that I think I should have 0:07:28.250 --> 0:07:30.650 done than when I did something and it didn't work out. 0:07:30.890 --> 0:07:31.050 Right. 0:07:31.130 --> 0:07:33.570 So if I, you know, run a bluff and I 0:07:33.690 --> 0:07:37.650 end up busting from a tournament, it's fine, right, I 0:07:37.970 --> 0:07:40.530 went for it, and I don't really think twice about 0:07:40.570 --> 0:07:43.570 it when I think that it's a really good spot 0:07:43.610 --> 0:07:46.810 to bluff, and I'm scared, right because what if he 0:07:47.010 --> 0:07:50.250 has you know, he calls me and has me beat 0:07:50.410 --> 0:07:52.770 and I don't bluff because of that kind of feeling. 0:07:53.290 --> 0:07:55.890 That's what I think about him. Like, you know, had 0:07:55.930 --> 0:07:57.770 I just gone for it, it might have been very, 0:07:57.850 --> 0:08:01.730 very different. It's that inaction rather than the action that 0:08:01.850 --> 0:08:05.370 actually motivates me that and stays with me as a 0:08:05.410 --> 0:08:09.050 bigger mistake. So I'm curious about what you think about that. 0:08:09.930 --> 0:08:13.650 Yeah, I mean, it's it's pretty rare that I bust 0:08:13.690 --> 0:08:17.490 out of a tournament on a bluff and regret it. 0:08:17.490 --> 0:08:19.010 In fact, it's probably pretty rare in Jeneral that I 0:08:19.010 --> 0:08:20.650 bust out on a bluff, right, Like I think I 0:08:20.690 --> 0:08:23.130 take bride and having I think like a pretty decent 0:08:23.130 --> 0:08:28.490 bluffing frequency, at least relative to people's expectations of me. Right, 0:08:28.490 --> 0:08:29.970 I can run small bluff, I can un big bluff. 0:08:29.970 --> 0:08:30.810 I run creed a bluffs. 0:08:30.850 --> 0:08:33.610 Right, I probably miss someone like weird boards, right, but 0:08:33.730 --> 0:08:36.370 like probably I'm not bluffing enough, if that's the feeling, right, 0:08:36.370 --> 0:08:40.770 It's like sometimes I'll really regret like not firing a 0:08:40.850 --> 0:08:42.530 second or third barrel. 0:08:42.810 --> 0:08:43.010 Right. 0:08:43.290 --> 0:08:46.250 So what that means if you're not a poker fan 0:08:46.730 --> 0:08:50.570 in the audience is like there are basically four streets 0:08:50.610 --> 0:08:52.970 in Texas. Hold them so you can actually kind of 0:08:52.970 --> 0:08:56.530 bluff at the pot four times, and oftentimes you have 0:08:56.570 --> 0:08:59.530 to unload all your ammunition to do it. You're you know, 0:08:59.570 --> 0:09:02.170 getting all in probably right. And the times when like 0:09:02.170 --> 0:09:05.610 you're like you've got a fire again and there's like 0:09:05.650 --> 0:09:07.970 this guilt people can feel like, oh I just had 0:09:08.010 --> 0:09:11.250 you know, it's like I just had a greasy burger yesterday. 0:09:11.290 --> 0:09:13.370 I have to be very diligent today about like kind 0:09:13.370 --> 0:09:15.210 of what I eat and even when it's like evy 0:09:15.250 --> 0:09:16.650 to have the cheeseburger again. 0:09:16.730 --> 0:09:19.330 Basically, yeah, that's absolutely right. 0:09:19.850 --> 0:09:20.050 You know. 0:09:20.090 --> 0:09:23.770 There are so many different facets to this, not just 0:09:24.170 --> 0:09:27.090 you know, in the poker world, but in broader decision making. 0:09:27.450 --> 0:09:30.050 So if you think about something that's closely related to poker, 0:09:30.090 --> 0:09:32.810 you know, the investing world, the finance world. You see 0:09:32.850 --> 0:09:36.930 that people are afraid of regretting selling a stock and 0:09:36.970 --> 0:09:37.930 then having it go up. 0:09:38.210 --> 0:09:40.970 They fear that more than they. 0:09:40.770 --> 0:09:43.290 Regret you know, holding on to it and having it 0:09:43.370 --> 0:09:46.490 go down for instance. That's just one example. But you 0:09:46.570 --> 0:09:49.570 end up making these irrational decisions all the time because 0:09:49.610 --> 0:09:51.170 you don't want to miss out right. 0:09:51.210 --> 0:09:52.810 It's kind of this fomo. 0:09:53.010 --> 0:09:57.570 That's brought to life, and it is compounded with this 0:09:58.170 --> 0:10:02.850 fascinating psychological phenomenon called the endowment effect, which is that 0:10:03.090 --> 0:10:06.570 when you already have something, it suddenly has much greater 0:10:06.730 --> 0:10:09.650 value than it did before you had it. 0:10:09.930 --> 0:10:10.090 Right. 0:10:10.170 --> 0:10:12.690 So, one famous study is with a lottery ticket. I 0:10:12.730 --> 0:10:15.970 give you a lottery ticket and then you know, say 0:10:15.970 --> 0:10:19.810 every lottery ticket has an exact same chance of winning, 0:10:19.810 --> 0:10:21.370 and they say, hey, nay, do you want to swap 0:10:21.370 --> 0:10:25.530 lottery tickets with me? You're going to be irrationally averse 0:10:25.570 --> 0:10:28.890 to doing that, because what happens if you swap and 0:10:28.930 --> 0:10:31.850 then I end up with the winning ticket? Shit, right, 0:10:32.010 --> 0:10:35.810 like that was yours, and you don't think about what 0:10:35.850 --> 0:10:38.890 if I had the winning ticket and now you have it, right, Like, 0:10:39.410 --> 0:10:40.850 that's just as likely. 0:10:41.250 --> 0:10:43.650 But that's not the way that the human brain works. 0:10:43.650 --> 0:10:47.570 Instead, you're like, what if I'm giving up my winning ticket? 0:10:47.850 --> 0:10:51.130 When you get something at auction, you're not going to 0:10:51.210 --> 0:10:53.050 sell it for more than you bought it for, right, 0:10:53.090 --> 0:10:55.530 Like you don't want to part with it. It happens 0:10:55.690 --> 0:10:59.010 over and over and over because once it's yours, it 0:10:59.130 --> 0:11:01.050 just acquires this irrational value. 0:11:01.050 --> 0:11:03.050 So we have these two different things, right. 0:11:03.090 --> 0:11:05.730 We have this fomo, We have this fear that like 0:11:06.770 --> 0:11:09.770 I'm going to regret what happens, and we have this 0:11:09.890 --> 0:11:13.090 endowment effect, and these two things compound each other where 0:11:13.330 --> 0:11:16.610 we end up making really irrational choices, especially when it 0:11:16.650 --> 0:11:19.370 comes to taking risks, and even if you know this, 0:11:19.370 --> 0:11:21.650 this can actually be a really tough one to fight. 0:11:22.770 --> 0:11:24.570 And I think poker illustrates. 0:11:24.090 --> 0:11:28.730 That very well because I definitely, you know, still have 0:11:28.810 --> 0:11:32.410 those spots where I won't do something, or like, we're 0:11:32.450 --> 0:11:35.490 all make an irrational decision even though I know what 0:11:35.610 --> 0:11:38.930 I'm doing, And I bet that after we record this, 0:11:39.290 --> 0:11:43.090 I am going to still make one of those errors. Right, 0:11:43.370 --> 0:11:46.330 And Poker's a game, right, so in a lot of sense, 0:11:46.570 --> 0:11:48.770 it should be easier for me to avoid that sort 0:11:48.810 --> 0:11:51.850 of regret a version when I'm playing poker. 0:11:51.930 --> 0:11:52.090 But. 0:11:53.530 --> 0:11:56.410 When in real life, you know, it's even harder. And 0:11:56.490 --> 0:11:57.970 even in poker, I can't avoid it. 0:11:58.290 --> 0:12:01.010 Yeah, I mean there's this particular one too that you 0:12:01.050 --> 0:12:03.970 get in kind of investing or sports betting for that matter, right, 0:12:04.010 --> 0:12:08.730 which is when you investing, yeah, and don't invest enough. Right, 0:12:09.290 --> 0:12:13.330 an investment I made six months ago that like, I 0:12:13.370 --> 0:12:15.610 think it's a good investment, not a small investment, but 0:12:15.690 --> 0:12:17.650 like I could have invested more, and I wish I 0:12:17.690 --> 0:12:19.410 had now based on performance of the It's like things 0:12:19.490 --> 0:12:24.690 like that can also produce regret. But that reflects hindsight bias. 0:12:24.730 --> 0:12:29.130 Yeah, absolutely, and hindsight bias definitely comes into play and 0:12:29.170 --> 0:12:31.770 regret all the time. It's kind of what I was 0:12:31.810 --> 0:12:34.170 saying at the beginning that regret is one of those 0:12:34.210 --> 0:12:38.610 emotions that takes outcome into or potential outcome kind of 0:12:38.810 --> 0:12:41.970 into its calculus, right, and we shouldn't be doing that. 0:12:42.050 --> 0:12:43.530 So one of the things, Natee that you and I 0:12:43.570 --> 0:12:47.210 stress over and over is when you're making good decisions, 0:12:47.530 --> 0:12:50.610 you can't be outcome oriented, right. You have to separate 0:12:50.650 --> 0:12:53.130 yourself from the outcome of the decision. You have to 0:12:53.210 --> 0:12:56.410 just think through the process. Right. Am I making this 0:12:56.490 --> 0:13:00.770 decision for the correct reasons? Right? Is my expected value 0:13:00.890 --> 0:13:05.650 calculation rational? Am I using the correct inputs the correct factors? 0:13:05.650 --> 0:13:08.930 Am I waiting them correctly? Am I know calibrating my 0:13:09.170 --> 0:13:11.290 confidence levels correctly? Right? 0:13:11.370 --> 0:13:13.770 So if you think about the poker hand, like, am 0:13:13.850 --> 0:13:15.930 I thinking through? Do I have the right combination? Is 0:13:15.970 --> 0:13:18.130 this the right board? Am I in the right situation? Right? 0:13:18.250 --> 0:13:21.250 All of these different things to bluff or to fold 0:13:21.570 --> 0:13:22.330 or whatever it is? 0:13:22.450 --> 0:13:22.650 Right? 0:13:22.930 --> 0:13:26.970 So I can't be thinking, well, you know what if 0:13:27.010 --> 0:13:31.290 I get called and I bust, right, and yet we 0:13:31.330 --> 0:13:34.330 think about that, we end up being way too results 0:13:34.370 --> 0:13:37.850 oriented and the regret can kick in after the fact. Right, 0:13:37.890 --> 0:13:40.650 So we might have made a rational decision and then 0:13:41.050 --> 0:13:44.090 feel regret about it afterwards because it ended up not 0:13:44.170 --> 0:13:47.090 going well. Right, Oh, if only I had folded pre flop, 0:13:47.450 --> 0:13:50.010 if only I had done this? Like that, that kind 0:13:50.050 --> 0:13:55.730 of counterfactual is very hindsight driven, very results driven, and 0:13:55.850 --> 0:13:58.930 being results driven and remembering and kind of dwelling on 0:13:59.010 --> 0:14:02.770 results is just the polar opposite of what we want 0:14:02.810 --> 0:14:04.650 to be doing when we're making good decisions. 0:14:05.290 --> 0:14:07.650 With the exception that like sometimes you pick up additional 0:14:07.690 --> 0:14:10.450 information that testifies how accurate your thesis was. 0:14:10.570 --> 0:14:10.730 Right. 0:14:11.050 --> 0:14:13.250 Let's say I'm playing poker and I think this opponent's 0:14:13.330 --> 0:14:18.210 we have a dynamic rivals and he's a big calling stations. 0:14:18.290 --> 0:14:21.170 So I'm going to make a big all in four 0:14:21.210 --> 0:14:25.090 better five bet with pocket aces because I think he'll 0:14:25.130 --> 0:14:28.010 call down as light as like ace queen offsuit and 0:14:28.010 --> 0:14:31.210 stuff like that. Right, and then they tank and tank 0:14:31.290 --> 0:14:36.170 and tank and they barely call with kings or Queen's Right, 0:14:36.170 --> 0:14:37.090 then your thesis was wrong. 0:14:37.170 --> 0:14:37.290 Right. 0:14:37.290 --> 0:14:39.490 That person actually was terrified by you. They probably had 0:14:39.490 --> 0:14:41.730 a very strong hand and or you gave something away 0:14:41.770 --> 0:14:44.330 physically with the way you played the hand. Right, That's 0:14:44.330 --> 0:14:45.570 when you might go back and say I made a 0:14:45.610 --> 0:14:49.450 replaced deviation and it didn't work out that. 0:14:49.490 --> 0:14:52.370 Well, that's a good caveat That's how we want to 0:14:52.490 --> 0:14:56.250 use outcomes, right. We want to use them as a 0:14:56.290 --> 0:15:00.050 way of calibrating our decision process in that particular sense, 0:15:00.370 --> 0:15:03.530 as opposed to, you know, did it go well for 0:15:03.650 --> 0:15:04.930 me or did it go poorly for me? 0:15:05.210 --> 0:15:09.850 So to kind of summarize here, right, More people, more 0:15:09.890 --> 0:15:14.290 often than not, are paralyzed by regret or by the 0:15:14.290 --> 0:15:18.250 anticipation of future regret, and it makes it make worse 0:15:18.770 --> 0:15:22.810 decisions right the time when regret is most appropriate, I think, 0:15:22.930 --> 0:15:26.690 or when you knew a decision was bad and you 0:15:26.730 --> 0:15:28.610 did it anyway right, then I think you really have 0:15:28.650 --> 0:15:32.330 to do some kind of like life coaching, self diagnosis, 0:15:32.810 --> 0:15:35.290 professional diagnosed with yourself, or like why that happened? 0:15:35.370 --> 0:15:35.610 Right? 0:15:36.130 --> 0:15:41.290 And then the one exception of being results oriented is 0:15:41.330 --> 0:15:44.290 when your thesis was wrong, right, and maybe you get 0:15:44.290 --> 0:15:46.930 the right outcome anyway, but like subsequent events prove that 0:15:46.970 --> 0:15:49.570 your thesis is wrong, and that's you know, again, we 0:15:49.570 --> 0:15:51.970 don't have perfect information either. It's not just that there's uncertainty, 0:15:52.010 --> 0:15:54.690 it's that we have incomplete information. But sometimes when you 0:15:54.690 --> 0:15:57.370 book a win, you forget about it. You can learn 0:15:57.410 --> 0:15:59.610 a lot from wins too. 0:16:00.770 --> 0:16:04.290 Yes, absolutely, And I would wrap this up with one 0:16:04.330 --> 0:16:07.290 more thing, which is that we should also remember that 0:16:07.690 --> 0:16:09.930 you know, you can regret doing something, but you can 0:16:09.970 --> 0:16:13.170 also regret not doing something right. So the choice not 0:16:13.330 --> 0:16:16.130 to act, the choice to kind of maintain status quo, 0:16:16.210 --> 0:16:18.130 is also a choice that can also lead to a 0:16:18.130 --> 0:16:21.170 lot of regret. And both of these things, both what 0:16:21.250 --> 0:16:23.730 you're talking about, Nate, and kind of the status quo 0:16:23.810 --> 0:16:26.770 by us. These can both lead us to irrational choices 0:16:26.890 --> 0:16:31.250 because of the desire to minimize regret. 0:16:34.690 --> 0:16:39.490 That's Nate Silver and Maria Khonnikova, hosts of Risky Business. 0:16:39.970 --> 0:16:42.130 The lesson I'm getting here is that our fear of 0:16:42.170 --> 0:16:46.290 making mistakes can ironically lead us to making some bad choices. 0:16:47.010 --> 0:16:50.050 One choice you won't regret is sticking around to hear 0:16:50.130 --> 0:16:54.490 the host of Heavyweight, Jonathan Goldstein talk with Sheila Hetty 0:16:54.690 --> 0:17:03.650 about some of the biggest mistakes she's ever made. Welcome 0:17:03.690 --> 0:17:06.930 back to this special edition of Cautionary Tales with me, 0:17:07.170 --> 0:17:11.730 Tim Harford. Do you know the show Heavyweight? It's another 0:17:11.770 --> 0:17:15.170 great one in the Pushkin Network. The host, Jonathan Goldstein 0:17:15.290 --> 0:17:19.890 helps people resolve problems from their pasts. Often that means 0:17:19.930 --> 0:17:23.370 coming to terms with their own mistakes. If you haven't 0:17:23.410 --> 0:17:26.410 heard the show, let me recommend the episode called Gregor. 0:17:26.770 --> 0:17:29.530 It's about a man who wants some CDs back and 0:17:29.570 --> 0:17:32.450 it sounds mondane I know, but trust me it isn't. 0:17:33.570 --> 0:17:36.810 For this special Mistakes episode, Jonathan wanted to talk to 0:17:36.850 --> 0:17:40.570 his friend, writer Sheila Hetty, who's probably best known for 0:17:40.610 --> 0:17:42.490 her book called Motherhood. 0:17:43.490 --> 0:17:47.090 Sheila, Hi, how are you Yeah? Nice to see you too, 0:17:47.730 --> 0:17:50.730 just as a glimpse, for a glimpse behind the curtain. 0:17:50.770 --> 0:17:53.330 Before we got on, we were texting a little bit 0:17:53.410 --> 0:17:58.210 and you had said, and this is a part of 0:17:58.250 --> 0:18:02.610 my gotcha journalism stylings, you'd said that you've never made 0:18:02.650 --> 0:18:07.450 a mistake. Well, I was joking. How do you How 0:18:07.450 --> 0:18:09.090 do you define a mistake or do you? 0:18:09.450 --> 0:18:13.770 I guess I think a mistake is something that you 0:18:14.930 --> 0:18:19.610 did with little thought that if you had put more 0:18:19.650 --> 0:18:21.650 thought into it, you would have made a different decision. 0:18:22.050 --> 0:18:23.890 Is there a difference between a regret? You see I 0:18:24.130 --> 0:18:28.370 traffic and regrets. That's my lingua franca, that's my bread 0:18:28.370 --> 0:18:31.410 and butter, my metia. Is there a difference between a 0:18:31.450 --> 0:18:33.090 mistake and a regret? 0:18:33.690 --> 0:18:33.890 Yeah? 0:18:33.930 --> 0:18:37.770 I think you can regret anything, mistake or not. I mean, 0:18:37.810 --> 0:18:41.090 you can regret things that were even by all accounts, 0:18:41.530 --> 0:18:43.450 the best thing you could have done in that situation. 0:18:43.730 --> 0:18:45.490 Maybe that's a better way of putting in it. 0:18:45.890 --> 0:18:48.290 Do you ever use that button, you know, that button 0:18:48.330 --> 0:18:50.370 on the email thing where you could where you could 0:18:50.370 --> 0:18:52.130 take back your email? Yes? 0:18:52.130 --> 0:18:55.090 Often, really I wish they left it for about a 0:18:55.130 --> 0:18:57.170 minute though. It disappears too fast. 0:18:57.570 --> 0:19:01.570 Yeah, it does. It's almost like it's worthless maybe an hour. 0:19:02.170 --> 0:19:03.970 Is there a setting that where you could play with that, 0:19:04.170 --> 0:19:05.650 where you can make it like last an hour? 0:19:06.330 --> 0:19:07.930 No, I don't know, well, maybe there is. 0:19:08.090 --> 0:19:10.410 I think though sometimes you want to do things impulsively, 0:19:11.410 --> 0:19:13.890 like I sent an email to somebody recently, and then 0:19:13.930 --> 0:19:15.810 afterwards I thought why did I send that? But I 0:19:15.890 --> 0:19:17.770 think I sent it because if I'd thought about it, 0:19:17.770 --> 0:19:18.690 I wouldn't have sent it. 0:19:19.490 --> 0:19:22.970 Was there any particular mistake that came to mind in 0:19:23.050 --> 0:19:26.010 thinking about all of these this lifetime and mistakes? 0:19:26.450 --> 0:19:28.610 Yeah, well, I applied for a grant from the Canada 0:19:28.610 --> 0:19:32.450 Council and I gave them an old email address and 0:19:32.490 --> 0:19:34.610 then they wrote me and there they said, we have 0:19:34.730 --> 0:19:38.170 fifty thousand dollars for you. You got the grand And 0:19:38.570 --> 0:19:43.970 I only noticed that email because I checked my old 0:19:44.010 --> 0:19:46.490 email address. I remembered, oh, I have this old email address, 0:19:46.490 --> 0:19:48.890 and I checked it and I had like six emails 0:19:48.930 --> 0:19:51.250 for them saying if you don't reply by this date, 0:19:51.290 --> 0:19:54.530 we're not giving you the grand. And it was two 0:19:54.570 --> 0:19:58.810 months in the past, and I'd lost the money because 0:19:58.810 --> 0:20:01.570 I'd given them this old email address, and I thought 0:20:01.570 --> 0:20:04.570 I was completely broke. I had no money and I thought, 0:20:05.010 --> 0:20:07.010 I just lost fifty thousand dollars because I did this 0:20:07.050 --> 0:20:11.450 stupid thing of not fourn my emails to my new 0:20:11.490 --> 0:20:13.130 address because I would have had to pay, And at 0:20:13.170 --> 0:20:14.610 the time, I thought, why should I pay to forward 0:20:14.690 --> 0:20:16.050 my emails from this old address? 0:20:17.130 --> 0:20:19.890 And that was a really that. 0:20:19.930 --> 0:20:25.090 Just felt like a heart stopping mistake, Like, how could 0:20:25.130 --> 0:20:26.490 I have just lost this money like that? 0:20:27.930 --> 0:20:31.850 Wow, that's that's how long ago? Was this two months ago? 0:20:32.410 --> 0:20:35.330 And have you inquired? Have you looked into it? 0:20:35.570 --> 0:20:36.050 Yeah? 0:20:36.130 --> 0:20:38.570 I called, I emailed. I was like, I'm so sorry. 0:20:38.570 --> 0:20:39.970 This is an old the email dress. I don't even 0:20:39.970 --> 0:20:41.570 know why I gave this old the email address. It 0:20:41.610 --> 0:20:43.610 was I applied so long ago, you know, I didn't 0:20:43.610 --> 0:20:47.850 realize da da da da, And then they were able 0:20:47.890 --> 0:20:50.410 to give it to me, But if I had checked, 0:20:50.410 --> 0:20:52.530 like a week later, they wouldn't have been able to 0:20:52.570 --> 0:20:55.610 reverse it. So that was just like, that's a kind 0:20:55.610 --> 0:20:59.410 of carelessness, which is common for me to be that careless, 0:20:59.930 --> 0:21:01.930 but it's never felt like it would have cost me 0:21:02.730 --> 0:21:05.770 such a I mean, the cost of that mistake would 0:21:05.810 --> 0:21:08.690 have been much worse than most of the mistakes I'd made, 0:21:08.690 --> 0:21:10.170 not aclude emotional mistakes. 0:21:10.610 --> 0:21:13.330 I'm really glad to hear that you were able to 0:21:13.410 --> 0:21:16.570 solve it in that space where you thought though that 0:21:16.650 --> 0:21:20.850 it was unsolvable and you just lost fifty thousand Canadian dollars. 0:21:24.290 --> 0:21:25.450 What was the feeling? 0:21:26.370 --> 0:21:26.690 Shame? 0:21:27.370 --> 0:21:30.170 Just shame, Like was there any attempt towards redemption, like 0:21:30.250 --> 0:21:31.810 I'm going to make this into a story or I'm 0:21:31.810 --> 0:21:34.250 going to dine out on this story to all my friends. 0:21:34.530 --> 0:21:37.890 No. I was just like I can't even tell my partner, 0:21:38.010 --> 0:21:40.210 I can't tell anyone about this, Like this is just 0:21:40.370 --> 0:21:44.890 too careless, this is too stupid, this is this has 0:21:44.930 --> 0:21:47.850 gone too far, like my carelessness has gone too far, 0:21:48.250 --> 0:21:52.570 And I just felt like how can I I was 0:21:52.650 --> 0:21:55.170 kind of like a ghast at myself, like I can't 0:21:55.170 --> 0:21:58.970 go on living this way with in such a It's 0:21:59.010 --> 0:22:01.450 like not reading the instructions. Oh that's another mistake I've 0:22:01.450 --> 0:22:04.490 made recently. I was going to do ketamine therapy for 0:22:04.570 --> 0:22:07.810 this article that I'm writing, and they said switch the 0:22:07.850 --> 0:22:10.730 tetamine around in your mouth and told it there for 0:22:10.770 --> 0:22:12.970 fifteen minutes and then spit it out. I'm in this clinic, 0:22:13.770 --> 0:22:16.170 and you know, I taped the whole the whole thing, 0:22:16.250 --> 0:22:18.650 audio taped the whole thing so I could just transcribe 0:22:18.690 --> 0:22:22.450 it later when I said on ketamine and I switched 0:22:22.490 --> 0:22:24.130 it around in my mouth for about thirty seconds and 0:22:24.170 --> 0:22:27.530 then I swallowed it, and the nurse and the therapist 0:22:27.570 --> 0:22:30.130 looked at me like, we told you three times to 0:22:30.250 --> 0:22:31.770