1
00:00:15,410 --> 00:00:25,170
Speaker 1: Pushkin. Hello, this is Tim Harford here, host of Cautionary Tales,

2
00:00:25,410 --> 00:00:28,450
Speaker 1: the show that tells you stories of catastrophes from the

3
00:00:28,490 --> 00:00:32,010
Speaker 1: past and explores what we can learn from them. Today,

4
00:00:32,170 --> 00:00:35,650
Speaker 1: our podcast is taking over the Pushkin Network for a

5
00:00:35,810 --> 00:00:38,890
Speaker 1: very special episode. I've invited some of the great and

6
00:00:38,930 --> 00:00:41,690
Speaker 1: good from Pushkin to join me to give their take

7
00:00:41,850 --> 00:00:44,530
Speaker 1: on the nature of mistakes and how we should think

8
00:00:44,530 --> 00:00:49,290
Speaker 1: about them. Coming up, Nate Silver and Maria Khonnikova, hosts

9
00:00:49,330 --> 00:00:54,690
Speaker 1: of Risky Business, on regretting mistakes and the mistake of regrets.

10
00:00:55,170 --> 00:00:59,250
Speaker 2: You see that people are afraid of regretting selling a

11
00:00:59,290 --> 00:01:00,730
Speaker 2: stock and then having it go up.

12
00:01:01,090 --> 00:01:03,810
Speaker 3: They fear that more than they.

13
00:01:03,650 --> 00:01:06,250
Speaker 2: Regret, you know, holding on to it and having it

14
00:01:06,330 --> 00:01:06,850
Speaker 2: go down.

15
00:01:07,370 --> 00:01:11,930
Speaker 1: And then Jonathan Goldstein from Heavyweight muses with author Sheila

16
00:01:12,010 --> 00:01:15,570
Speaker 1: Hetty about how we should feel about mistakes based on

17
00:01:15,650 --> 00:01:20,770
Speaker 1: her experiences with accidental ketamin, missing money, and a flying baby.

18
00:01:20,970 --> 00:01:23,130
Speaker 4: I was on the ground and somebody threw me this child,

19
00:01:23,610 --> 00:01:26,650
Speaker 4: and I remember thinking in that moment, you cannot drop

20
00:01:26,690 --> 00:01:27,410
Speaker 4: this baby.

21
00:01:27,690 --> 00:01:29,890
Speaker 1: But first, I want to kick things off with a

22
00:01:29,970 --> 00:02:02,010
Speaker 1: classic cautionary tale, A strange happening in a canal. It's

23
00:02:02,170 --> 00:02:07,490
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy eight, a dredging gang working for British Waterways

24
00:02:07,970 --> 00:02:12,330
Speaker 1: a struggling with a stuff problem on the picturesque Chesterfield Canal.

25
00:02:13,210 --> 00:02:16,570
Speaker 1: They're trying to strengthen a section of the canal's side wall,

26
00:02:17,130 --> 00:02:22,210
Speaker 1: which means dredging away silt and removing submerged junk. That's

27
00:02:22,290 --> 00:02:25,410
Speaker 1: not easy at the best of times. But what really

28
00:02:25,490 --> 00:02:29,770
Speaker 1: has them stumped is a length of heavy iron chain.

29
00:02:30,570 --> 00:02:36,450
Speaker 1: It's blocking their efforts and it simply refuses to budge. Eventually,

30
00:02:36,490 --> 00:02:40,450
Speaker 1: the foreman calls in the dredging boat. The crew attaches

31
00:02:40,490 --> 00:02:44,010
Speaker 1: a line to the chain and revs up the dredger's engines.

32
00:02:45,330 --> 00:02:52,530
Speaker 1: It pulls, and it pulls, and at last that does

33
00:02:52,570 --> 00:02:58,170
Speaker 1: the trick. With a sharp tug, the chain finally comes unstuck.

34
00:02:59,490 --> 00:03:02,210
Speaker 1: The crew remove it and the block of wood attached

35
00:03:02,250 --> 00:03:05,570
Speaker 1: to it, and then take a well earned break for lunch.

36
00:03:08,050 --> 00:03:12,850
Speaker 1: Lunch is dudely interrupted by a policeman in a state

37
00:03:13,010 --> 00:03:17,890
Speaker 1: of some excitement. He had been passing the normally tranquil

38
00:03:18,010 --> 00:03:24,010
Speaker 1: waterway when he could not help but notice a large whirlpool.

39
00:03:24,130 --> 00:03:28,010
Speaker 1: By the time the crew returned to the scene, the

40
00:03:28,050 --> 00:03:33,290
Speaker 1: canal has gone All that remain are a number of

41
00:03:33,370 --> 00:03:37,570
Speaker 1: stranded houseboats and pleasure cruisers, not to mention the dredger

42
00:03:37,610 --> 00:03:44,370
Speaker 1: itself wallowing in mud. Those, of course, and a plug hole.

43
00:03:46,090 --> 00:03:48,730
Speaker 1: The plug hole had been installed by the designer of

44
00:03:48,770 --> 00:03:53,770
Speaker 1: the Chesterfield Canal more than two hundred years earlier, but

45
00:03:53,850 --> 00:03:56,690
Speaker 1: all records of it had been destroyed in a wartime

46
00:03:56,850 --> 00:04:00,930
Speaker 1: fire in the nineteen forties, since there were no dredging

47
00:04:01,010 --> 00:04:04,290
Speaker 1: boats in seventeen seventy five when the canal was opened,

48
00:04:04,690 --> 00:04:08,050
Speaker 1: it was designed to be easy to drain in sections

49
00:04:08,450 --> 00:04:11,090
Speaker 1: to allow works to jump in and shovel out the

50
00:04:11,130 --> 00:04:16,170
Speaker 1: accumulated silt. This particular section was a mile and a

51
00:04:16,250 --> 00:04:20,970
Speaker 1: half long, and the entire stretch was now nothing but

52
00:04:21,130 --> 00:04:27,050
Speaker 1: mud and the occasional rusted bicycle. The canal itself had

53
00:04:27,170 --> 00:04:32,570
Speaker 1: gurgled off to join the nearby river Idol. One of

54
00:04:32,610 --> 00:04:35,970
Speaker 1: the workmen explained, we didn't know there was a plug.

55
00:04:41,850 --> 00:04:44,730
Speaker 1: I first heard this story from the book that inspired

56
00:04:44,850 --> 00:04:49,970
Speaker 1: the Cautionary Tales podcast The World's Greatest Mistakes by Nigel Blundell.

57
00:04:50,490 --> 00:04:52,850
Speaker 1: It's full of these kinds of stories that are funny

58
00:04:53,010 --> 00:04:56,330
Speaker 1: or tragic or both. I read it when I was

59
00:04:56,370 --> 00:04:59,330
Speaker 1: a boy, and decades later It's what inspired me to

60
00:04:59,410 --> 00:05:02,650
Speaker 1: start making a podcast about mistakes and what we can

61
00:05:02,730 --> 00:05:05,610
Speaker 1: learn from them. So what can we learn from a

62
00:05:05,730 --> 00:05:10,690
Speaker 1: vanishing canal? There's the obvious if something really really hard

63
00:05:10,730 --> 00:05:13,610
Speaker 1: to move, it might be wiser to leave it in place.

64
00:05:14,810 --> 00:05:17,970
Speaker 1: There's another lesson too, but I'll come back to that later.

65
00:05:19,490 --> 00:05:22,930
Speaker 1: Before that, it's time to introduce our first guests for

66
00:05:22,970 --> 00:05:27,170
Speaker 1: the episode, Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, hosts of the

67
00:05:27,250 --> 00:05:32,130
Speaker 1: excellent podcast Risky Business. Nate and Maria are dedicated to

68
00:05:32,250 --> 00:05:35,650
Speaker 1: learning from mistakes, and their show is entirely about how

69
00:05:35,690 --> 00:05:41,330
Speaker 1: to make better decisions. Nature's a statistician, Maria's a psychologist,

70
00:05:41,610 --> 00:05:45,370
Speaker 1: and they're both journalists as well as high stakes poker players.

71
00:05:46,370 --> 00:05:49,170
Speaker 1: It's their business to have a keen sense of risk

72
00:05:49,290 --> 00:05:54,010
Speaker 1: and reward. When I asked them for some insight about mistakes,

73
00:05:54,530 --> 00:05:57,890
Speaker 1: Maria really wanted to talk about the power of one thing,

74
00:05:58,090 --> 00:06:00,170
Speaker 1: in particular, regret.

75
00:06:04,330 --> 00:06:08,810
Speaker 2: Nate, are there any decisions lately that you didn't make?

76
00:06:08,850 --> 00:06:13,090
Speaker 2: An now you're just experiencing a sense of regret, Because

77
00:06:13,130 --> 00:06:16,290
Speaker 2: that's what we're going to talk about today, psychology of

78
00:06:16,330 --> 00:06:19,250
Speaker 2: regret and how it affects our decision making.

79
00:06:19,530 --> 00:06:19,970
Speaker 3: The things.

80
00:06:20,010 --> 00:06:23,730
Speaker 2: We didn't do the risks, we didn't take the hands,

81
00:06:23,810 --> 00:06:27,850
Speaker 2: we did not play, the bluffs, we did not run.

82
00:06:28,450 --> 00:06:31,490
Speaker 5: In Everly, Maria, I started to think about poker hands,

83
00:06:31,570 --> 00:06:33,650
Speaker 5: particularly a high stakes poker hand that I played maybe

84
00:06:33,690 --> 00:06:36,850
Speaker 5: six months ago, where the short version is like a

85
00:06:36,930 --> 00:06:39,410
Speaker 5: player made a bet that I thought was fairly likely

86
00:06:39,450 --> 00:06:40,930
Speaker 5: to be a bluff. I had a weekend, but a

87
00:06:40,930 --> 00:06:43,570
Speaker 5: hand that beat bluffs, and I had a strong spidey

88
00:06:43,650 --> 00:06:46,250
Speaker 5: sense that it was worth a call, and it didn't

89
00:06:46,290 --> 00:06:48,890
Speaker 5: call because, like I talked myself out it because the

90
00:06:48,890 --> 00:06:52,850
Speaker 5: stakes were pretty high, right, So that's like regret about

91
00:06:52,890 --> 00:06:56,450
Speaker 5: like knowing the right play and not doing it. And

92
00:06:56,490 --> 00:06:57,850
Speaker 5: the stakes are high, but not so high that I

93
00:06:57,850 --> 00:07:00,530
Speaker 5: couldn't like afford to have been wrung by any means, right,

94
00:07:00,570 --> 00:07:03,090
Speaker 5: So that was still staying six months later.

95
00:07:03,770 --> 00:07:05,970
Speaker 2: It's always those ones that we regret and that we

96
00:07:06,050 --> 00:07:08,170
Speaker 2: think about over and over and over.

97
00:07:08,090 --> 00:07:08,450
Speaker 3: Isn't it.

98
00:07:08,570 --> 00:07:13,130
Speaker 2: Yeah, trying to avoid regret is something that can drive

99
00:07:13,170 --> 00:07:16,410
Speaker 2: our decision making to an irrational degree because it's a

100
00:07:16,490 --> 00:07:19,930
Speaker 2: feeling that's not good, right. We don't like feeling regret.

101
00:07:20,210 --> 00:07:22,210
Speaker 2: I definitely know that, Like when it comes to poker,

102
00:07:22,250 --> 00:07:26,050
Speaker 2: for instance, I always think more about the hands where

103
00:07:26,050 --> 00:07:28,170
Speaker 2: I didn't do something that I think I should have

104
00:07:28,250 --> 00:07:30,650
Speaker 2: done than when I did something and it didn't work out.

105
00:07:30,890 --> 00:07:31,050
Speaker 4: Right.

106
00:07:31,130 --> 00:07:33,570
Speaker 2: So if I, you know, run a bluff and I

107
00:07:33,690 --> 00:07:37,650
Speaker 2: end up busting from a tournament, it's fine, right, I

108
00:07:37,970 --> 00:07:40,530
Speaker 2: went for it, and I don't really think twice about

109
00:07:40,570 --> 00:07:43,570
Speaker 2: it when I think that it's a really good spot

110
00:07:43,610 --> 00:07:46,810
Speaker 2: to bluff, and I'm scared, right because what if he

111
00:07:47,010 --> 00:07:50,250
Speaker 2: has you know, he calls me and has me beat

112
00:07:50,410 --> 00:07:52,770
Speaker 2: and I don't bluff because of that kind of feeling.

113
00:07:53,290 --> 00:07:55,890
Speaker 2: That's what I think about him. Like, you know, had

114
00:07:55,930 --> 00:07:57,770
Speaker 2: I just gone for it, it might have been very,

115
00:07:57,850 --> 00:08:01,730
Speaker 2: very different. It's that inaction rather than the action that

116
00:08:01,850 --> 00:08:05,370
Speaker 2: actually motivates me that and stays with me as a

117
00:08:05,410 --> 00:08:09,050
Speaker 2: bigger mistake. So I'm curious about what you think about that.

118
00:08:09,930 --> 00:08:13,650
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, it's it's pretty rare that I bust

119
00:08:13,690 --> 00:08:17,490
Speaker 5: out of a tournament on a bluff and regret it.

120
00:08:17,490 --> 00:08:19,010
Speaker 5: In fact, it's probably pretty rare in Jeneral that I

121
00:08:19,010 --> 00:08:20,650
Speaker 5: bust out on a bluff, right, Like I think I

122
00:08:20,690 --> 00:08:23,130
Speaker 5: take bride and having I think like a pretty decent

123
00:08:23,130 --> 00:08:28,490
Speaker 5: bluffing frequency, at least relative to people's expectations of me. Right,

124
00:08:28,490 --> 00:08:29,970
Speaker 5: I can run small bluff, I can un big bluff.

125
00:08:29,970 --> 00:08:30,810
Speaker 6: I run creed a bluffs.

126
00:08:30,850 --> 00:08:33,610
Speaker 5: Right, I probably miss someone like weird boards, right, but

127
00:08:33,730 --> 00:08:36,370
Speaker 5: like probably I'm not bluffing enough, if that's the feeling, right,

128
00:08:36,370 --> 00:08:40,770
Speaker 5: It's like sometimes I'll really regret like not firing a

129
00:08:40,850 --> 00:08:42,530
Speaker 5: second or third barrel.

130
00:08:42,810 --> 00:08:43,010
Speaker 2: Right.

131
00:08:43,290 --> 00:08:46,250
Speaker 5: So what that means if you're not a poker fan

132
00:08:46,730 --> 00:08:50,570
Speaker 5: in the audience is like there are basically four streets

133
00:08:50,610 --> 00:08:52,970
Speaker 5: in Texas. Hold them so you can actually kind of

134
00:08:52,970 --> 00:08:56,530
Speaker 5: bluff at the pot four times, and oftentimes you have

135
00:08:56,570 --> 00:08:59,530
Speaker 5: to unload all your ammunition to do it. You're you know,

136
00:08:59,570 --> 00:09:02,170
Speaker 5: getting all in probably right. And the times when like

137
00:09:02,170 --> 00:09:05,610
Speaker 5: you're like you've got a fire again and there's like

138
00:09:05,650 --> 00:09:07,970
Speaker 5: this guilt people can feel like, oh I just had

139
00:09:08,010 --> 00:09:11,250
Speaker 5: you know, it's like I just had a greasy burger yesterday.

140
00:09:11,290 --> 00:09:13,370
Speaker 5: I have to be very diligent today about like kind

141
00:09:13,370 --> 00:09:15,210
Speaker 5: of what I eat and even when it's like evy

142
00:09:15,250 --> 00:09:16,650
Speaker 5: to have the cheeseburger again.

143
00:09:16,730 --> 00:09:19,330
Speaker 3: Basically, yeah, that's absolutely right.

144
00:09:19,850 --> 00:09:20,050
Speaker 4: You know.

145
00:09:20,090 --> 00:09:23,770
Speaker 2: There are so many different facets to this, not just

146
00:09:24,170 --> 00:09:27,090
Speaker 2: you know, in the poker world, but in broader decision making.

147
00:09:27,450 --> 00:09:30,050
Speaker 2: So if you think about something that's closely related to poker,

148
00:09:30,090 --> 00:09:32,810
Speaker 2: you know, the investing world, the finance world. You see

149
00:09:32,850 --> 00:09:36,930
Speaker 2: that people are afraid of regretting selling a stock and

150
00:09:36,970 --> 00:09:37,930
Speaker 2: then having it go up.

151
00:09:38,210 --> 00:09:40,970
Speaker 3: They fear that more than they.

152
00:09:40,770 --> 00:09:43,290
Speaker 2: Regret you know, holding on to it and having it

153
00:09:43,370 --> 00:09:46,490
Speaker 2: go down for instance. That's just one example. But you

154
00:09:46,570 --> 00:09:49,570
Speaker 2: end up making these irrational decisions all the time because

155
00:09:49,610 --> 00:09:51,170
Speaker 2: you don't want to miss out right.

156
00:09:51,210 --> 00:09:52,810
Speaker 3: It's kind of this fomo.

157
00:09:53,010 --> 00:09:57,570
Speaker 2: That's brought to life, and it is compounded with this

158
00:09:58,170 --> 00:10:02,850
Speaker 2: fascinating psychological phenomenon called the endowment effect, which is that

159
00:10:03,090 --> 00:10:06,570
Speaker 2: when you already have something, it suddenly has much greater

160
00:10:06,730 --> 00:10:09,650
Speaker 2: value than it did before you had it.

161
00:10:09,930 --> 00:10:10,090
Speaker 4: Right.

162
00:10:10,170 --> 00:10:12,690
Speaker 2: So, one famous study is with a lottery ticket. I

163
00:10:12,730 --> 00:10:15,970
Speaker 2: give you a lottery ticket and then you know, say

164
00:10:15,970 --> 00:10:19,810
Speaker 2: every lottery ticket has an exact same chance of winning,

165
00:10:19,810 --> 00:10:21,370
Speaker 2: and they say, hey, nay, do you want to swap

166
00:10:21,370 --> 00:10:25,530
Speaker 2: lottery tickets with me? You're going to be irrationally averse

167
00:10:25,570 --> 00:10:28,890
Speaker 2: to doing that, because what happens if you swap and

168
00:10:28,930 --> 00:10:31,850
Speaker 2: then I end up with the winning ticket? Shit, right,

169
00:10:32,010 --> 00:10:35,810
Speaker 2: like that was yours, and you don't think about what

170
00:10:35,850 --> 00:10:38,890
Speaker 2: if I had the winning ticket and now you have it, right, Like,

171
00:10:39,410 --> 00:10:40,850
Speaker 2: that's just as likely.

172
00:10:41,250 --> 00:10:43,650
Speaker 3: But that's not the way that the human brain works.

173
00:10:43,650 --> 00:10:47,570
Speaker 2: Instead, you're like, what if I'm giving up my winning ticket?

174
00:10:47,850 --> 00:10:51,130
Speaker 2: When you get something at auction, you're not going to

175
00:10:51,210 --> 00:10:53,050
Speaker 2: sell it for more than you bought it for, right,

176
00:10:53,090 --> 00:10:55,530
Speaker 2: Like you don't want to part with it. It happens

177
00:10:55,690 --> 00:10:59,010
Speaker 2: over and over and over because once it's yours, it

178
00:10:59,130 --> 00:11:01,050
Speaker 2: just acquires this irrational value.

179
00:11:01,050 --> 00:11:03,050
Speaker 3: So we have these two different things, right.

180
00:11:03,090 --> 00:11:05,730
Speaker 2: We have this fomo, We have this fear that like

181
00:11:06,770 --> 00:11:09,770
Speaker 2: I'm going to regret what happens, and we have this

182
00:11:09,890 --> 00:11:13,090
Speaker 2: endowment effect, and these two things compound each other where

183
00:11:13,330 --> 00:11:16,610
Speaker 2: we end up making really irrational choices, especially when it

184
00:11:16,650 --> 00:11:19,370
Speaker 2: comes to taking risks, and even if you know this,

185
00:11:19,370 --> 00:11:21,650
Speaker 2: this can actually be a really tough one to fight.

186
00:11:22,770 --> 00:11:24,570
Speaker 3: And I think poker illustrates.

187
00:11:24,090 --> 00:11:28,730
Speaker 2: That very well because I definitely, you know, still have

188
00:11:28,810 --> 00:11:32,410
Speaker 2: those spots where I won't do something, or like, we're

189
00:11:32,450 --> 00:11:35,490
Speaker 2: all make an irrational decision even though I know what

190
00:11:35,610 --> 00:11:38,930
Speaker 2: I'm doing, And I bet that after we record this,

191
00:11:39,290 --> 00:11:43,090
Speaker 2: I am going to still make one of those errors. Right,

192
00:11:43,370 --> 00:11:46,330
Speaker 2: And Poker's a game, right, so in a lot of sense,

193
00:11:46,570 --> 00:11:48,770
Speaker 2: it should be easier for me to avoid that sort

194
00:11:48,810 --> 00:11:51,850
Speaker 2: of regret a version when I'm playing poker.

195
00:11:51,930 --> 00:11:52,090
Speaker 4: But.

196
00:11:53,530 --> 00:11:56,410
Speaker 2: When in real life, you know, it's even harder. And

197
00:11:56,490 --> 00:11:57,970
Speaker 2: even in poker, I can't avoid it.

198
00:11:58,290 --> 00:12:01,010
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean there's this particular one too that you

199
00:12:01,050 --> 00:12:03,970
Speaker 5: get in kind of investing or sports betting for that matter, right,

200
00:12:04,010 --> 00:12:08,730
Speaker 5: which is when you investing, yeah, and don't invest enough. Right,

201
00:12:09,290 --> 00:12:13,330
Speaker 5: an investment I made six months ago that like, I

202
00:12:13,370 --> 00:12:15,610
Speaker 5: think it's a good investment, not a small investment, but

203
00:12:15,690 --> 00:12:17,650
Speaker 5: like I could have invested more, and I wish I

204
00:12:17,690 --> 00:12:19,410
Speaker 5: had now based on performance of the It's like things

205
00:12:19,490 --> 00:12:24,690
Speaker 5: like that can also produce regret. But that reflects hindsight bias.

206
00:12:24,730 --> 00:12:29,130
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, and hindsight bias definitely comes into play and

207
00:12:29,170 --> 00:12:31,770
Speaker 2: regret all the time. It's kind of what I was

208
00:12:31,810 --> 00:12:34,170
Speaker 2: saying at the beginning that regret is one of those

209
00:12:34,210 --> 00:12:38,610
Speaker 2: emotions that takes outcome into or potential outcome kind of

210
00:12:38,810 --> 00:12:41,970
Speaker 2: into its calculus, right, and we shouldn't be doing that.

211
00:12:42,050 --> 00:12:43,530
Speaker 2: So one of the things, Natee that you and I

212
00:12:43,570 --> 00:12:47,210
Speaker 2: stress over and over is when you're making good decisions,

213
00:12:47,530 --> 00:12:50,610
Speaker 2: you can't be outcome oriented, right. You have to separate

214
00:12:50,650 --> 00:12:53,130
Speaker 2: yourself from the outcome of the decision. You have to

215
00:12:53,210 --> 00:12:56,410
Speaker 2: just think through the process. Right. Am I making this

216
00:12:56,490 --> 00:13:00,770
Speaker 2: decision for the correct reasons? Right? Is my expected value

217
00:13:00,890 --> 00:13:05,650
Speaker 2: calculation rational? Am I using the correct inputs the correct factors?

218
00:13:05,650 --> 00:13:08,930
Speaker 2: Am I waiting them correctly? Am I know calibrating my

219
00:13:09,170 --> 00:13:11,290
Speaker 2: confidence levels correctly? Right?

220
00:13:11,370 --> 00:13:13,770
Speaker 3: So if you think about the poker hand, like, am

221
00:13:13,850 --> 00:13:15,930
Speaker 3: I thinking through? Do I have the right combination? Is

222
00:13:15,970 --> 00:13:18,130
Speaker 3: this the right board? Am I in the right situation? Right?

223
00:13:18,250 --> 00:13:21,250
Speaker 2: All of these different things to bluff or to fold

224
00:13:21,570 --> 00:13:22,330
Speaker 2: or whatever it is?

225
00:13:22,450 --> 00:13:22,650
Speaker 6: Right?

226
00:13:22,930 --> 00:13:26,970
Speaker 2: So I can't be thinking, well, you know what if

227
00:13:27,010 --> 00:13:31,290
Speaker 2: I get called and I bust, right, and yet we

228
00:13:31,330 --> 00:13:34,330
Speaker 2: think about that, we end up being way too results

229
00:13:34,370 --> 00:13:37,850
Speaker 2: oriented and the regret can kick in after the fact. Right,

230
00:13:37,890 --> 00:13:40,650
Speaker 2: So we might have made a rational decision and then

231
00:13:41,050 --> 00:13:44,090
Speaker 2: feel regret about it afterwards because it ended up not

232
00:13:44,170 --> 00:13:47,090
Speaker 2: going well. Right, Oh, if only I had folded pre flop,

233
00:13:47,450 --> 00:13:50,010
Speaker 2: if only I had done this? Like that, that kind

234
00:13:50,050 --> 00:13:55,730
Speaker 2: of counterfactual is very hindsight driven, very results driven, and

235
00:13:55,850 --> 00:13:58,930
Speaker 2: being results driven and remembering and kind of dwelling on

236
00:13:59,010 --> 00:14:02,770
Speaker 2: results is just the polar opposite of what we want

237
00:14:02,810 --> 00:14:04,650
Speaker 2: to be doing when we're making good decisions.

238
00:14:05,290 --> 00:14:07,650
Speaker 5: With the exception that like sometimes you pick up additional

239
00:14:07,690 --> 00:14:10,450
Speaker 5: information that testifies how accurate your thesis was.

240
00:14:10,570 --> 00:14:10,730
Speaker 4: Right.

241
00:14:11,050 --> 00:14:13,250
Speaker 5: Let's say I'm playing poker and I think this opponent's

242
00:14:13,330 --> 00:14:18,210
Speaker 5: we have a dynamic rivals and he's a big calling stations.

243
00:14:18,290 --> 00:14:21,170
Speaker 5: So I'm going to make a big all in four

244
00:14:21,210 --> 00:14:25,090
Speaker 5: better five bet with pocket aces because I think he'll

245
00:14:25,130 --> 00:14:28,010
Speaker 5: call down as light as like ace queen offsuit and

246
00:14:28,010 --> 00:14:31,210
Speaker 5: stuff like that. Right, and then they tank and tank

247
00:14:31,290 --> 00:14:36,170
Speaker 5: and tank and they barely call with kings or Queen's Right,

248
00:14:36,170 --> 00:14:37,090
Speaker 5: then your thesis was wrong.

249
00:14:37,170 --> 00:14:37,290
Speaker 4: Right.

250
00:14:37,290 --> 00:14:39,490
Speaker 5: That person actually was terrified by you. They probably had

251
00:14:39,490 --> 00:14:41,730
Speaker 5: a very strong hand and or you gave something away

252
00:14:41,770 --> 00:14:44,330
Speaker 5: physically with the way you played the hand. Right, That's

253
00:14:44,330 --> 00:14:45,570
Speaker 5: when you might go back and say I made a

254
00:14:45,610 --> 00:14:49,450
Speaker 5: replaced deviation and it didn't work out that.

255
00:14:49,490 --> 00:14:52,370
Speaker 2: Well, that's a good caveat That's how we want to

256
00:14:52,490 --> 00:14:56,250
Speaker 2: use outcomes, right. We want to use them as a

257
00:14:56,290 --> 00:15:00,050
Speaker 2: way of calibrating our decision process in that particular sense,

258
00:15:00,370 --> 00:15:03,530
Speaker 2: as opposed to, you know, did it go well for

259
00:15:03,650 --> 00:15:04,930
Speaker 2: me or did it go poorly for me?

260
00:15:05,210 --> 00:15:09,850
Speaker 5: So to kind of summarize here, right, More people, more

261
00:15:09,890 --> 00:15:14,290
Speaker 5: often than not, are paralyzed by regret or by the

262
00:15:14,290 --> 00:15:18,250
Speaker 5: anticipation of future regret, and it makes it make worse

263
00:15:18,770 --> 00:15:22,810
Speaker 5: decisions right the time when regret is most appropriate, I think,

264
00:15:22,930 --> 00:15:26,690
Speaker 5: or when you knew a decision was bad and you

265
00:15:26,730 --> 00:15:28,610
Speaker 5: did it anyway right, then I think you really have

266
00:15:28,650 --> 00:15:32,330
Speaker 5: to do some kind of like life coaching, self diagnosis,

267
00:15:32,810 --> 00:15:35,290
Speaker 5: professional diagnosed with yourself, or like why that happened?

268
00:15:35,370 --> 00:15:35,610
Speaker 1: Right?

269
00:15:36,130 --> 00:15:41,290
Speaker 5: And then the one exception of being results oriented is

270
00:15:41,330 --> 00:15:44,290
Speaker 5: when your thesis was wrong, right, and maybe you get

271
00:15:44,290 --> 00:15:46,930
Speaker 5: the right outcome anyway, but like subsequent events prove that

272
00:15:46,970 --> 00:15:49,570
Speaker 5: your thesis is wrong, and that's you know, again, we

273
00:15:49,570 --> 00:15:51,970
Speaker 5: don't have perfect information either. It's not just that there's uncertainty,

274
00:15:52,010 --> 00:15:54,690
Speaker 5: it's that we have incomplete information. But sometimes when you

275
00:15:54,690 --> 00:15:57,370
Speaker 5: book a win, you forget about it. You can learn

276
00:15:57,410 --> 00:15:59,610
Speaker 5: a lot from wins too.

277
00:16:00,770 --> 00:16:04,290
Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, And I would wrap this up with one

278
00:16:04,330 --> 00:16:07,290
Speaker 2: more thing, which is that we should also remember that

279
00:16:07,690 --> 00:16:09,930
Speaker 2: you know, you can regret doing something, but you can

280
00:16:09,970 --> 00:16:13,170
Speaker 2: also regret not doing something right. So the choice not

281
00:16:13,330 --> 00:16:16,130
Speaker 2: to act, the choice to kind of maintain status quo,

282
00:16:16,210 --> 00:16:18,130
Speaker 2: is also a choice that can also lead to a

283
00:16:18,130 --> 00:16:21,170
Speaker 2: lot of regret. And both of these things, both what

284
00:16:21,250 --> 00:16:23,730
Speaker 2: you're talking about, Nate, and kind of the status quo

285
00:16:23,810 --> 00:16:26,770
Speaker 2: by us. These can both lead us to irrational choices

286
00:16:26,890 --> 00:16:31,250
Speaker 2: because of the desire to minimize regret.

287
00:16:34,690 --> 00:16:39,490
Speaker 1: That's Nate Silver and Maria Khonnikova, hosts of Risky Business.

288
00:16:39,970 --> 00:16:42,130
Speaker 1: The lesson I'm getting here is that our fear of

289
00:16:42,170 --> 00:16:46,290
Speaker 1: making mistakes can ironically lead us to making some bad choices.

290
00:16:47,010 --> 00:16:50,050
Speaker 1: One choice you won't regret is sticking around to hear

291
00:16:50,130 --> 00:16:54,490
Speaker 1: the host of Heavyweight, Jonathan Goldstein talk with Sheila Hetty

292
00:16:54,690 --> 00:17:03,650
Speaker 1: about some of the biggest mistakes she's ever made. Welcome

293
00:17:03,690 --> 00:17:06,930
Speaker 1: back to this special edition of Cautionary Tales with me,

294
00:17:07,170 --> 00:17:11,730
Speaker 1: Tim Harford. Do you know the show Heavyweight? It's another

295
00:17:11,770 --> 00:17:15,170
Speaker 1: great one in the Pushkin Network. The host, Jonathan Goldstein

296
00:17:15,290 --> 00:17:19,890
Speaker 1: helps people resolve problems from their pasts. Often that means

297
00:17:19,930 --> 00:17:23,370
Speaker 1: coming to terms with their own mistakes. If you haven't

298
00:17:23,410 --> 00:17:26,410
Speaker 1: heard the show, let me recommend the episode called Gregor.

299
00:17:26,770 --> 00:17:29,530
Speaker 1: It's about a man who wants some CDs back and

300
00:17:29,570 --> 00:17:32,450
Speaker 1: it sounds mondane I know, but trust me it isn't.

301
00:17:33,570 --> 00:17:36,810
Speaker 1: For this special Mistakes episode, Jonathan wanted to talk to

302
00:17:36,850 --> 00:17:40,570
Speaker 1: his friend, writer Sheila Hetty, who's probably best known for

303
00:17:40,610 --> 00:17:42,490
Speaker 1: her book called Motherhood.

304
00:17:43,490 --> 00:17:47,090
Speaker 6: Sheila, Hi, how are you Yeah? Nice to see you too,

305
00:17:47,730 --> 00:17:50,730
Speaker 6: just as a glimpse, for a glimpse behind the curtain.

306
00:17:50,770 --> 00:17:53,330
Speaker 6: Before we got on, we were texting a little bit

307
00:17:53,410 --> 00:17:58,210
Speaker 6: and you had said, and this is a part of

308
00:17:58,250 --> 00:18:02,610
Speaker 6: my gotcha journalism stylings, you'd said that you've never made

309
00:18:02,650 --> 00:18:07,450
Speaker 6: a mistake. Well, I was joking. How do you How

310
00:18:07,450 --> 00:18:09,090
Speaker 6: do you define a mistake or do you?

311
00:18:09,450 --> 00:18:13,770
Speaker 4: I guess I think a mistake is something that you

312
00:18:14,930 --> 00:18:19,610
Speaker 4: did with little thought that if you had put more

313
00:18:19,650 --> 00:18:21,650
Speaker 4: thought into it, you would have made a different decision.

314
00:18:22,050 --> 00:18:23,890
Speaker 6: Is there a difference between a regret? You see I

315
00:18:24,130 --> 00:18:28,370
Speaker 6: traffic and regrets. That's my lingua franca, that's my bread

316
00:18:28,370 --> 00:18:31,410
Speaker 6: and butter, my metia. Is there a difference between a

317
00:18:31,450 --> 00:18:33,090
Speaker 6: mistake and a regret?

318
00:18:33,690 --> 00:18:33,890
Speaker 3: Yeah?

319
00:18:33,930 --> 00:18:37,770
Speaker 4: I think you can regret anything, mistake or not. I mean,

320
00:18:37,810 --> 00:18:41,090
Speaker 4: you can regret things that were even by all accounts,

321
00:18:41,530 --> 00:18:43,450
Speaker 4: the best thing you could have done in that situation.

322
00:18:43,730 --> 00:18:45,490
Speaker 4: Maybe that's a better way of putting in it.

323
00:18:45,890 --> 00:18:48,290
Speaker 6: Do you ever use that button, you know, that button

324
00:18:48,330 --> 00:18:50,370
Speaker 6: on the email thing where you could where you could

325
00:18:50,370 --> 00:18:52,130
Speaker 6: take back your email? Yes?

326
00:18:52,130 --> 00:18:55,090
Speaker 4: Often, really I wish they left it for about a

327
00:18:55,130 --> 00:18:57,170
Speaker 4: minute though. It disappears too fast.

328
00:18:57,570 --> 00:19:01,570
Speaker 6: Yeah, it does. It's almost like it's worthless maybe an hour.

329
00:19:02,170 --> 00:19:03,970
Speaker 6: Is there a setting that where you could play with that,

330
00:19:04,170 --> 00:19:05,650
Speaker 6: where you can make it like last an hour?

331
00:19:06,330 --> 00:19:07,930
Speaker 3: No, I don't know, well, maybe there is.

332
00:19:08,090 --> 00:19:10,410
Speaker 4: I think though sometimes you want to do things impulsively,

333
00:19:11,410 --> 00:19:13,890
Speaker 4: like I sent an email to somebody recently, and then

334
00:19:13,930 --> 00:19:15,810
Speaker 4: afterwards I thought why did I send that? But I

335
00:19:15,890 --> 00:19:17,770
Speaker 4: think I sent it because if I'd thought about it,

336
00:19:17,770 --> 00:19:18,690
Speaker 4: I wouldn't have sent it.

337
00:19:19,490 --> 00:19:22,970
Speaker 6: Was there any particular mistake that came to mind in

338
00:19:23,050 --> 00:19:26,010
Speaker 6: thinking about all of these this lifetime and mistakes?

339
00:19:26,450 --> 00:19:28,610
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I applied for a grant from the Canada

340
00:19:28,610 --> 00:19:32,450
Speaker 4: Council and I gave them an old email address and

341
00:19:32,490 --> 00:19:34,610
Speaker 4: then they wrote me and there they said, we have

342
00:19:34,730 --> 00:19:38,170
Speaker 4: fifty thousand dollars for you. You got the grand And

343
00:19:38,570 --> 00:19:43,970
Speaker 4: I only noticed that email because I checked my old

344
00:19:44,010 --> 00:19:46,490
Speaker 4: email address. I remembered, oh, I have this old email address,

345
00:19:46,490 --> 00:19:48,890
Speaker 4: and I checked it and I had like six emails

346
00:19:48,930 --> 00:19:51,250
Speaker 4: for them saying if you don't reply by this date,

347
00:19:51,290 --> 00:19:54,530
Speaker 4: we're not giving you the grand. And it was two

348
00:19:54,570 --> 00:19:58,810
Speaker 4: months in the past, and I'd lost the money because

349
00:19:58,810 --> 00:20:01,570
Speaker 4: I'd given them this old email address, and I thought

350
00:20:01,570 --> 00:20:04,570
Speaker 4: I was completely broke. I had no money and I thought,

351
00:20:05,010 --> 00:20:07,010
Speaker 4: I just lost fifty thousand dollars because I did this

352
00:20:07,050 --> 00:20:11,450
Speaker 4: stupid thing of not fourn my emails to my new

353
00:20:11,490 --> 00:20:13,130
Speaker 4: address because I would have had to pay, And at

354
00:20:13,170 --> 00:20:14,610
Speaker 4: the time, I thought, why should I pay to forward

355
00:20:14,690 --> 00:20:16,050
Speaker 4: my emails from this old address?

356
00:20:17,130 --> 00:20:19,890
Speaker 6: And that was a really that.

357
00:20:19,930 --> 00:20:25,090
Speaker 4: Just felt like a heart stopping mistake, Like, how could

358
00:20:25,130 --> 00:20:26,490
Speaker 4: I have just lost this money like that?

359
00:20:27,930 --> 00:20:31,850
Speaker 6: Wow, that's that's how long ago? Was this two months ago?

360
00:20:32,410 --> 00:20:35,330
Speaker 6: And have you inquired? Have you looked into it?

361
00:20:35,570 --> 00:20:36,050
Speaker 3: Yeah?

362
00:20:36,130 --> 00:20:38,570
Speaker 4: I called, I emailed. I was like, I'm so sorry.

363
00:20:38,570 --> 00:20:39,970
Speaker 4: This is an old the email dress. I don't even

364
00:20:39,970 --> 00:20:41,570
Speaker 4: know why I gave this old the email address. It

365
00:20:41,610 --> 00:20:43,610
Speaker 4: was I applied so long ago, you know, I didn't

366
00:20:43,610 --> 00:20:47,850
Speaker 4: realize da da da da, And then they were able

367
00:20:47,890 --> 00:20:50,410
Speaker 4: to give it to me, But if I had checked,

368
00:20:50,410 --> 00:20:52,530
Speaker 4: like a week later, they wouldn't have been able to

369
00:20:52,570 --> 00:20:55,610
Speaker 4: reverse it. So that was just like, that's a kind

370
00:20:55,610 --> 00:20:59,410
Speaker 4: of carelessness, which is common for me to be that careless,

371
00:20:59,930 --> 00:21:01,930
Speaker 4: but it's never felt like it would have cost me

372
00:21:02,730 --> 00:21:05,770
Speaker 4: such a I mean, the cost of that mistake would

373
00:21:05,810 --> 00:21:08,690
Speaker 4: have been much worse than most of the mistakes I'd made,

374
00:21:08,690 --> 00:21:10,170
Speaker 4: not aclude emotional mistakes.

375
00:21:10,610 --> 00:21:13,330
Speaker 6: I'm really glad to hear that you were able to

376
00:21:13,410 --> 00:21:16,570
Speaker 6: solve it in that space where you thought though that

377
00:21:16,650 --> 00:21:20,850
Speaker 6: it was unsolvable and you just lost fifty thousand Canadian dollars.

378
00:21:24,290 --> 00:21:25,450
Speaker 6: What was the feeling?

379
00:21:26,370 --> 00:21:26,690
Speaker 3: Shame?

380
00:21:27,370 --> 00:21:30,170
Speaker 6: Just shame, Like was there any attempt towards redemption, like

381
00:21:30,250 --> 00:21:31,810
Speaker 6: I'm going to make this into a story or I'm

382
00:21:31,810 --> 00:21:34,250
Speaker 6: going to dine out on this story to all my friends.

383
00:21:34,530 --> 00:21:37,890
Speaker 4: No. I was just like I can't even tell my partner,

384
00:21:38,010 --> 00:21:40,210
Speaker 4: I can't tell anyone about this, Like this is just

385
00:21:40,370 --> 00:21:44,890
Speaker 4: too careless, this is too stupid, this is this has

386
00:21:44,930 --> 00:21:47,850
Speaker 4: gone too far, like my carelessness has gone too far,

387
00:21:48,250 --> 00:21:52,570
Speaker 4: And I just felt like how can I I was

388
00:21:52,650 --> 00:21:55,170
Speaker 4: kind of like a ghast at myself, like I can't

389
00:21:55,170 --> 00:21:58,970
Speaker 4: go on living this way with in such a It's

390
00:21:59,010 --> 00:22:01,450
Speaker 4: like not reading the instructions. Oh that's another mistake I've

391
00:22:01,450 --> 00:22:04,490
Speaker 4: made recently. I was going to do ketamine therapy for

392
00:22:04,570 --> 00:22:07,810
Speaker 4: this article that I'm writing, and they said switch the

393
00:22:07,850 --> 00:22:10,730
Speaker 4: tetamine around in your mouth and told it there for

394
00:22:10,770 --> 00:22:12,970
Speaker 4: fifteen minutes and then spit it out. I'm in this clinic,

395
00:22:13,770 --> 00:22:16,170
Speaker 4: and you know, I taped the whole the whole thing,

396
00:22:16,250 --> 00:22:18,650
Speaker 4: audio taped the whole thing so I could just transcribe

397
00:22:18,690 --> 00:22:22,450
Speaker 4: it later when I said on ketamine and I switched

398
00:22:22,490 --> 00:22:24,130
Speaker 4: it around in my mouth for about thirty seconds and

399
00:22:24,170 --> 00:22:27,530
Speaker 4: then I swallowed it, and the nurse and the therapist

400
00:22:27,570 --> 00:22:30,130
Speaker 4: looked at me like, we told you three times to

401
00:22:30,250 --> 00:22:31,770
Speaker 4: swish it around your mouth for fifty minutes and then

402
00:22:31,810 --> 00:22:34,290
Speaker 4: spit it out, and I was like, you never said that,

403
00:22:34,690 --> 00:22:37,850
Speaker 4: You never said that, And the nurse was gonna say,

404
00:22:38,210 --> 00:22:40,450
Speaker 4: lots of people make that mistake, but then she had

405
00:22:40,450 --> 00:22:42,090
Speaker 4: to catch herself and then she couldn't say lots of

406
00:22:42,130 --> 00:22:44,730
Speaker 4: people made the mistake because everyone had heard that instruction

407
00:22:44,810 --> 00:22:45,930
Speaker 4: switch it around for fifty minutes and.

408
00:22:45,890 --> 00:22:46,410
Speaker 3: Spit it out.

409
00:22:46,610 --> 00:22:48,330
Speaker 4: And then I listened to the tape when I got home,

410
00:22:48,370 --> 00:22:51,330
Speaker 4: and they did say that twice, swish it around your

411
00:22:51,370 --> 00:22:53,890
Speaker 4: mouth fifteen minutes and spit out, and I completely didn't

412
00:22:53,930 --> 00:22:57,450
Speaker 4: hear it, and they couldn't get me stressed out about it,

413
00:22:57,450 --> 00:22:59,450
Speaker 4: because otherwise I'd have this horrible trip. So they're like, oh,

414
00:22:59,450 --> 00:23:03,330
Speaker 4: it's okay, it's okay. Oh it's okay, dearie. You know

415
00:23:03,530 --> 00:23:06,210
Speaker 4: that you did that. So this is the kind of

416
00:23:06,290 --> 00:23:07,890
Speaker 4: like mistake that I make all the time, just like

417
00:23:07,970 --> 00:23:12,610
Speaker 4: not listening to instructions, not paying attention, thinking I know everything,

418
00:23:12,650 --> 00:23:14,210
Speaker 4: I don't need to listen to the instructions.

419
00:23:14,770 --> 00:23:18,610
Speaker 6: Wow. Wow, had anybody ever done that before in the history.

420
00:23:18,650 --> 00:23:19,730
Speaker 4: I don't think if their clinic.

421
00:23:19,770 --> 00:23:20,930
Speaker 6: I mean, it was fine.

422
00:23:20,970 --> 00:23:23,650
Speaker 4: I just had like you just weren't supposed to do that.

423
00:23:23,650 --> 00:23:25,410
Speaker 4: That's not how it's supposed to do.

424
00:23:25,170 --> 00:23:28,370
Speaker 6: Do you do you swallow mouthwash after you gargle with it?

425
00:23:29,090 --> 00:23:29,250
Speaker 4: No?

426
00:23:29,930 --> 00:23:34,330
Speaker 6: Okay, But the situation with the with the grant, once

427
00:23:34,370 --> 00:23:39,170
Speaker 6: you found out like that, you lost it. Like I

428
00:23:39,690 --> 00:23:43,130
Speaker 6: kind of liken that feeling too, when I'm like, say,

429
00:23:43,130 --> 00:23:46,450
Speaker 6: carrying a bowl of cereal from the kitchen to the

430
00:23:46,490 --> 00:23:49,050
Speaker 6: couch and I feel my I feel like I'm losing

431
00:23:49,050 --> 00:23:52,530
Speaker 6: my grasp, it's gonna fall, it's gonna I'm tripping, I'm

432
00:23:52,890 --> 00:23:56,050
Speaker 6: time slows down, and I'm just like, fuck it, fuck

433
00:23:56,090 --> 00:23:59,650
Speaker 6: it all. And it's almost like a very self punishing

434
00:23:59,690 --> 00:24:03,050
Speaker 6: sort of feeling of like you deserve this, I'm going

435
00:24:03,090 --> 00:24:06,170
Speaker 6: to really wallow in this, like I practically like throw

436
00:24:06,250 --> 00:24:08,370
Speaker 6: the bowl of cereal out of my hands against the

437
00:24:08,370 --> 00:24:11,770
Speaker 6: wall to make it as terrible as possible. Is there

438
00:24:11,810 --> 00:24:13,290
Speaker 6: a bit of masochism?

439
00:24:13,770 --> 00:24:17,170
Speaker 4: Not in the Grant one, but what you just said

440
00:24:17,210 --> 00:24:19,370
Speaker 4: reminds me of a time that I didn't make a mistake,

441
00:24:19,410 --> 00:24:22,250
Speaker 4: which I was in some gallery art gallery in Toronto,

442
00:24:22,370 --> 00:24:23,930
Speaker 4: and I don't know how this happened, but I had

443
00:24:23,930 --> 00:24:25,610
Speaker 4: this feeling like somebody threw me their baby.

444
00:24:25,610 --> 00:24:26,450
Speaker 6: It was like a child.

445
00:24:26,530 --> 00:24:28,810
Speaker 4: Like I was on the ground and somebody threw me

446
00:24:28,890 --> 00:24:32,850
Speaker 4: this child and I leaned backwards and kind of like

447
00:24:32,890 --> 00:24:34,770
Speaker 4: fell backwards to catch it. And I remember thinking, in

448
00:24:34,770 --> 00:24:37,890
Speaker 4: that moment, you cannot drop this baby.

449
00:24:37,930 --> 00:24:39,010
Speaker 3: And I didn't, and.

450
00:24:38,970 --> 00:24:43,210
Speaker 4: I remember feeling like most situations in life, there is

451
00:24:43,250 --> 00:24:45,490
Speaker 4: this margin of who cares if I dropped the cereal

452
00:24:45,650 --> 00:24:45,890
Speaker 4: or not.

453
00:24:46,370 --> 00:24:46,930
Speaker 6: And it made me.

454
00:24:46,890 --> 00:24:49,130
Speaker 4: Realize that in most situations, I would like, like you

455
00:24:49,170 --> 00:24:50,970
Speaker 4: throw the cereal against the wall, and I was just like,

456
00:24:51,010 --> 00:24:52,810
Speaker 4: this is not one of those times you have to

457
00:24:52,970 --> 00:24:57,850
Speaker 4: put every cell into catching that baby properly, Whereas most

458
00:24:57,890 --> 00:24:59,970
Speaker 4: of the time you put half the cells into catching

459
00:24:59,970 --> 00:25:03,130
Speaker 4: the baby, or like letting the cereal not fall on

460
00:25:03,170 --> 00:25:05,890
Speaker 4: the other half into letting it fall, and you kind

461
00:25:05,930 --> 00:25:08,610
Speaker 4: of leave it to chance whether you drop the cereal

462
00:25:08,690 --> 00:25:09,970
Speaker 4: or the baby or not. But I was like, this

463
00:25:10,010 --> 00:25:11,770
Speaker 4: is not one of those times. And so it did

464
00:25:11,810 --> 00:25:14,410
Speaker 4: make me realize like how permissive I am of mistakes

465
00:25:14,850 --> 00:25:16,970
Speaker 4: in general, because I was like this, this is not

466
00:25:17,170 --> 00:25:18,170
Speaker 4: like all those other times.

467
00:25:18,330 --> 00:25:20,290
Speaker 6: No, this is a great point, but we just need

468
00:25:20,330 --> 00:25:22,570
Speaker 6: to rewind a little bit for those who maybe aren't

469
00:25:22,610 --> 00:25:26,090
Speaker 6: as into the Canadian conceptual art scene where people walk

470
00:25:26,090 --> 00:25:28,010
Speaker 6: into galleries and have babies thrown at them.

471
00:25:28,370 --> 00:25:32,770
Speaker 4: What happened. It was like a social I don't even

472
00:25:32,810 --> 00:25:34,170
Speaker 4: know if a show was going on. It was a

473
00:25:34,170 --> 00:25:37,570
Speaker 4: bunch of artists hanging around, and how could somebody throw

474
00:25:38,010 --> 00:25:39,650
Speaker 4: a baby? It wasn't a baby. It was like a

475
00:25:39,650 --> 00:25:41,530
Speaker 4: one year two year old. It was like it was

476
00:25:41,570 --> 00:25:43,290
Speaker 4: a somewhere between baby and toddler.

477
00:25:43,370 --> 00:25:46,010
Speaker 6: But they threw They threw a human being at you.

478
00:25:46,410 --> 00:25:49,330
Speaker 4: Something happened that I had to catch a child. I

479
00:25:49,370 --> 00:25:53,730
Speaker 4: don't really the emotion in trying to catch the child.

480
00:25:54,210 --> 00:25:57,410
Speaker 4: The resources that my body put towards catching the child

481
00:25:57,450 --> 00:26:03,010
Speaker 4: were so intense, right that I forgot how that situation

482
00:26:03,250 --> 00:26:08,010
Speaker 4: actually unfolded. But somehow there was a child. It was

483
00:26:08,370 --> 00:26:11,370
Speaker 4: with one person, And then I wish I could explain

484
00:26:11,410 --> 00:26:11,850
Speaker 4: it better.

485
00:26:12,090 --> 00:26:13,410
Speaker 6: No, No, I think I'm getting a bit. I mean,

486
00:26:13,570 --> 00:26:15,810
Speaker 6: I really like the conclusion, which is sort of like

487
00:26:15,850 --> 00:26:19,810
Speaker 6: you realize that mistakes are a luxury sometimes, like if

488
00:26:19,850 --> 00:26:22,770
Speaker 6: you just feel like there is no margin for error,

489
00:26:22,810 --> 00:26:26,290
Speaker 6: that you can't you just can't allow yourself that, then

490
00:26:26,370 --> 00:26:26,810
Speaker 6: you don't.

491
00:26:27,450 --> 00:26:29,090
Speaker 4: Yeah, And it's pretty much the only time in my

492
00:26:29,090 --> 00:26:31,890
Speaker 4: life where I ever felt like there is no margin forever.

493
00:26:31,930 --> 00:26:34,290
Speaker 4: If you don't catch this baby, it'll split its head

494
00:26:34,330 --> 00:26:36,650
Speaker 4: open and die. Like I was like, you cannot, And

495
00:26:36,970 --> 00:26:39,410
Speaker 4: I think it made me realize how usually I'm like, yeah,

496
00:26:39,530 --> 00:26:42,330
Speaker 4: maybe maybe I'll can't catch that mistake, or maybe I

497
00:26:42,370 --> 00:26:43,890
Speaker 4: won't maybe I'll let the cereal fall.

498
00:26:43,890 --> 00:26:44,370
Speaker 6: Who cares?

499
00:26:44,530 --> 00:26:48,890
Speaker 4: Like, Yeah, exactly, Like you say, the mistakes are kind

500
00:26:48,930 --> 00:26:49,650
Speaker 4: of a luxury.

501
00:26:50,250 --> 00:26:53,130
Speaker 6: Does that suggest that you can avoid mistakes if you

502
00:26:53,170 --> 00:26:53,970
Speaker 6: try hard enough?

503
00:26:54,810 --> 00:26:57,010
Speaker 4: I think I think that's what most people would believe.

504
00:26:57,610 --> 00:26:59,890
Speaker 6: How hard do you think you personally? How hard do

505
00:26:59,930 --> 00:27:01,530
Speaker 6: you think a person should should try.

506
00:27:02,690 --> 00:27:03,050
Speaker 3: I don't know.

507
00:27:03,170 --> 00:27:05,650
Speaker 4: I don't I probably don't try that hard because I

508
00:27:05,650 --> 00:27:06,770
Speaker 4: figure things will work out.

509
00:27:06,650 --> 00:27:10,010
Speaker 6: In the end. You do feel that way, Yeah, I have.

510
00:27:09,970 --> 00:27:14,490
Speaker 4: A basic optimistic feeling about my life, and I'm basically

511
00:27:14,490 --> 00:27:16,850
Speaker 4: an optimistic person. So maybe that's why I don't try

512
00:27:16,890 --> 00:27:19,050
Speaker 4: so hard to avoid mistakes, because I figure everything's going

513
00:27:19,090 --> 00:27:19,530
Speaker 4: to work out.

514
00:27:19,530 --> 00:27:20,690
Speaker 3: So I swallowed the kind I mean.

515
00:27:20,970 --> 00:27:23,170
Speaker 4: Like I had a bit of a hangover the next

516
00:27:23,250 --> 00:27:25,810
Speaker 4: day in the day after from it, like I felt

517
00:27:25,810 --> 00:27:27,690
Speaker 4: really tired, but like it's I'm not going to die.

518
00:27:27,810 --> 00:27:29,130
Speaker 4: Like if I was going to die, they wouldn't have

519
00:27:29,170 --> 00:27:30,490
Speaker 4: given it you to swirl in your mouth.

520
00:27:30,570 --> 00:27:33,690
Speaker 6: You know, they have to take into account that people

521
00:27:33,730 --> 00:27:35,490
Speaker 6: aren't going to listen all the time and they don't

522
00:27:35,490 --> 00:27:42,290
Speaker 6: deserve to die because of it. So how do you

523
00:27:42,530 --> 00:27:46,450
Speaker 6: or do you make peace with a mistake?

524
00:27:47,610 --> 00:27:53,970
Speaker 4: Just make a new one.

525
00:27:55,250 --> 00:27:57,450
Speaker 1: There's a new season of Heavyweight out now, and you

526
00:27:57,450 --> 00:28:01,490
Speaker 1: can find a link to it in this episode show notes. Now,

527
00:28:01,570 --> 00:28:03,570
Speaker 1: don't go anywhere. When we get back from the break,

528
00:28:03,650 --> 00:28:14,090
Speaker 1: I've got one last cautionary tale for you. Welcome back

529
00:28:14,090 --> 00:28:17,890
Speaker 1: to this special edition of Cautionary Tales with me Tim Harford,

530
00:28:18,370 --> 00:28:21,170
Speaker 1: and now for what will hopefully be our final mistake.

531
00:28:21,250 --> 00:28:28,490
Speaker 1: This episode, I've got a cautionary tail for you. Passengers

532
00:28:28,610 --> 00:28:32,570
Speaker 1: on Air Canada flight one four three had the pleasure

533
00:28:32,690 --> 00:28:35,810
Speaker 1: of flying on a brand new Boeing seven sixty seven,

534
00:28:36,450 --> 00:28:39,610
Speaker 1: albeit a Bowing sixty seven with a brand new dodgy

535
00:28:39,730 --> 00:28:43,930
Speaker 1: fuel gauge. The airline knew that the fuel gauge was unreliable,

536
00:28:44,170 --> 00:28:48,130
Speaker 1: so Captain Bob Pearson and his crew needed to manually

537
00:28:48,250 --> 00:28:51,530
Speaker 1: calculate how much fuel the plane needed to get from

538
00:28:51,570 --> 00:28:57,970
Speaker 1: Montreal to Edmonton, plus the usual reserve. Unfortunately, Air Canada,

539
00:28:58,250 --> 00:29:02,170
Speaker 1: like Canada itself, was in the slow and confusing process

540
00:29:02,530 --> 00:29:07,770
Speaker 1: for switching from imperial to metric units. Most of the

541
00:29:07,770 --> 00:29:11,370
Speaker 1: planes were set up and labeled for Imperial measures, but

542
00:29:11,490 --> 00:29:15,650
Speaker 1: this new plane wasn't. The upshot of all this confusion

543
00:29:16,130 --> 00:29:19,170
Speaker 1: was that the plane was actually fueled up, not with

544
00:29:19,370 --> 00:29:23,370
Speaker 1: twenty two thousand, six hundred kilograms of fuel, but with

545
00:29:23,490 --> 00:29:28,010
Speaker 1: twenty two thousand, six hundred pounds, less than half of

546
00:29:28,090 --> 00:29:35,930
Speaker 1: what was intended. How, how how did this happen? Well,

547
00:29:35,970 --> 00:29:40,890
Speaker 1: the manual check didn't use any measure as clear as kilograms. Instead,

548
00:29:41,010 --> 00:29:44,050
Speaker 1: the crew needed to convert a dipstick measure in centimeters

549
00:29:44,090 --> 00:29:47,250
Speaker 1: into a volume in liters into a mass in kilograms

550
00:29:47,490 --> 00:29:50,410
Speaker 1: or pounds. That required a conversion factor. And the conversion

551
00:29:50,410 --> 00:29:52,490
Speaker 1: factor supplied to the refuelers and written on all the

552
00:29:52,490 --> 00:29:55,050
Speaker 1: older planes was the old one for pounds, not the

553
00:29:55,210 --> 00:29:59,450
Speaker 1: new one for kilograms. Did you get that? Air Canada

554
00:29:59,730 --> 00:30:02,770
Speaker 1: hadn't made it clear? In any case? Whose job it

555
00:30:02,930 --> 00:30:05,890
Speaker 1: was to do all this arithmetic. In the old planes,

556
00:30:05,930 --> 00:30:08,930
Speaker 1: it would be the third flight crew member, the flight engineer.

557
00:30:09,650 --> 00:30:11,890
Speaker 1: But this new plane just had a pilot and a

558
00:30:11,930 --> 00:30:14,890
Speaker 1: co pilot, and neither of them had been trained to

559
00:30:14,970 --> 00:30:19,810
Speaker 1: do this tricky task. One mechanical technician tried and gave up.

560
00:30:20,410 --> 00:30:22,930
Speaker 1: Another got most of the way through but ran out

561
00:30:22,930 --> 00:30:25,090
Speaker 1: a room on the slip of paper he was using.

562
00:30:25,730 --> 00:30:28,210
Speaker 1: He decided to leave it to the pilot and co pilot.

563
00:30:28,930 --> 00:30:31,090
Speaker 1: Did I mention that neither of them had been trained

564
00:30:31,090 --> 00:30:36,370
Speaker 1: to perform the calculation. You might think that this story

565
00:30:36,770 --> 00:30:40,810
Speaker 1: was doomed to end in disaster, but this is a

566
00:30:40,970 --> 00:30:46,170
Speaker 1: very special story. There's a lucky twist. The plane was

567
00:30:46,250 --> 00:30:49,650
Speaker 1: scheduled to make a short hop down to Ottawa to

568
00:30:49,690 --> 00:30:53,370
Speaker 1: pick up more passengers before making the long journey west

569
00:30:53,370 --> 00:30:57,570
Speaker 1: to Edmonton with a dangerously low level of fuel, and

570
00:30:58,090 --> 00:31:04,050
Speaker 1: during that stopover, Captain Pearson, wary of his disconnected fuel gauge,

571
00:31:04,490 --> 00:31:12,050
Speaker 1: decided to double check the fuel levels. Phew Alas, there

572
00:31:12,090 --> 00:31:17,170
Speaker 1: is an unlucky twist to the lucky twist. In Ottawa,

573
00:31:17,610 --> 00:31:21,730
Speaker 1: the flight crew, still untrained and still supplied with confusing

574
00:31:21,810 --> 00:31:27,850
Speaker 1: conversion factors, mixed up metric and Imperial units in exactly

575
00:31:27,890 --> 00:31:33,250
Speaker 1: the same way. Flight one four to three duly took

576
00:31:33,250 --> 00:31:37,210
Speaker 1: off for Edmonton without enough fuel to get it anywhere

577
00:31:37,330 --> 00:31:44,010
Speaker 1: near its destination. In the cockpit, the first hint of

578
00:31:44,050 --> 00:31:50,490
Speaker 1: trouble came almost halfway to Edmonton. Four short, sharp beeps,

579
00:31:51,170 --> 00:31:58,370
Speaker 1: a totally unfamiliar alarm, meaning what left forward fuel pump

580
00:31:58,370 --> 00:32:03,890
Speaker 1: had failed? That's odd, Captain Pearson flicked through the manual.

581
00:32:04,970 --> 00:32:08,250
Speaker 1: There were six of these pumps, so losing one was

582
00:32:08,290 --> 00:32:15,730
Speaker 1: no disaster, except a second pump had failed. Now both

583
00:32:15,770 --> 00:32:18,410
Speaker 1: of the left hand fuel tank pumps were out of action.

584
00:32:19,770 --> 00:32:23,970
Speaker 1: Oh fuck, said Captain Pearson. He gave the order to

585
00:32:24,050 --> 00:32:28,770
Speaker 1: divert to the nearest major airport, Winnipeg. Hopefully at Winnipeg

586
00:32:28,810 --> 00:32:30,850
Speaker 1: they could figure out what had gone wrong in the

587
00:32:30,890 --> 00:32:35,370
Speaker 1: left hand fuel tank. Winnipeg Center, Air Canada one four to.

588
00:32:35,290 --> 00:32:38,290
Speaker 2: Three Air Canada one for three Go ahead.

589
00:32:38,930 --> 00:32:44,770
Speaker 1: Yes, sir, we have a problem. Captain Pearson knew that

590
00:32:44,850 --> 00:32:47,410
Speaker 1: if there was a problem with the left fuel tank,

591
00:32:47,770 --> 00:32:52,610
Speaker 1: the left engine might also fail. Landing with only one

592
00:32:52,770 --> 00:32:56,610
Speaker 1: engine it wouldn't be easy. They were one hundred and

593
00:32:56,650 --> 00:33:01,610
Speaker 1: twenty eight miles north of Winnipeg. Pearson began a slow descent,

594
00:33:03,570 --> 00:33:10,650
Speaker 1: and then four more beeps, and another four and a

595
00:33:10,690 --> 00:33:16,810
Speaker 1: moment later, Pearson and his crew realized that all six

596
00:33:17,210 --> 00:33:22,170
Speaker 1: fuel pumps had failed. Pearson told the flight crew to

597
00:33:22,250 --> 00:33:29,970
Speaker 1: prepare for an emergency landing at Winnipeg. Minutes ticked by.

598
00:33:31,010 --> 00:33:35,570
Speaker 1: Captain Pearson and his colleagues still hadn't quite realized how

599
00:33:35,810 --> 00:33:39,530
Speaker 1: serious the situation was. They were in the middle of

600
00:33:39,530 --> 00:33:43,770
Speaker 1: a gradual descent, but that meant losing height. They would

601
00:33:43,810 --> 00:33:47,570
Speaker 1: soon wish they hadn't lost. For the last of those

602
00:33:47,610 --> 00:33:54,930
Speaker 1: aggressive four beeps sounded. Number one engine cut out, then

603
00:33:55,650 --> 00:33:59,090
Speaker 1: the number two engine, and if you were wandering about

604
00:33:59,210 --> 00:34:04,530
Speaker 1: number three engine, there wasn't a number three engine. But

605
00:34:04,690 --> 00:34:07,450
Speaker 1: that wasn't the worst of it. The worst of it

606
00:34:07,530 --> 00:34:11,450
Speaker 1: was when very shortly after afterwards, every light in the

607
00:34:11,490 --> 00:34:16,650
Speaker 1: cockpit went out. The electricity in a Boeing seven sixty

608
00:34:16,690 --> 00:34:23,930
Speaker 1: seven comes from a generator powered by the engines. Bob

609
00:34:24,010 --> 00:34:28,690
Speaker 1: Pearson hadn't just lost his engines, he'd lost all his instruments,

610
00:34:29,130 --> 00:34:32,050
Speaker 1: and he'd lost the flaps and slats, the rudder, and

611
00:34:32,090 --> 00:34:37,410
Speaker 1: the ailerons, even the undercarriage. Captain Pearson was now in

612
00:34:37,570 --> 00:34:40,890
Speaker 1: complete control of the airplane, as long as he didn't

613
00:34:40,890 --> 00:34:45,490
Speaker 1: want to speed up, break, change altitude, change direction, stay

614
00:34:45,570 --> 00:34:53,410
Speaker 1: airborne or land. There were two glimmers of hope. The

615
00:34:53,490 --> 00:34:58,090
Speaker 1: plane was equipped with an emergency air turbine, effectively a

616
00:34:58,130 --> 00:35:01,130
Speaker 1: windmill that could be dropped into place near one of

617
00:35:01,170 --> 00:35:05,370
Speaker 1: the wheels and use the wind whistling past the fuselage

618
00:35:05,410 --> 00:35:08,930
Speaker 1: to supply a little bit of electrical power. The fl

619
00:35:09,130 --> 00:35:13,010
Speaker 1: light crew flipped to the manual, found the procedure, and

620
00:35:13,330 --> 00:35:18,810
Speaker 1: unlocked the emergency turbine. The lights flickered back on and

621
00:35:18,850 --> 00:35:23,490
Speaker 1: Captain Pearson now had some limited control. Most of the

622
00:35:23,490 --> 00:35:26,690
Speaker 1: controls no longer work, but by pulling hard on the sticks,

623
00:35:27,330 --> 00:35:30,770
Speaker 1: like a driver of a car with power steering disconnected,

624
00:35:31,490 --> 00:35:35,490
Speaker 1: Pearson could change the elevation and direction of the plane.

625
00:35:36,490 --> 00:35:42,130
Speaker 1: What a shame he didn't have any engines. The co

626
00:35:42,330 --> 00:35:45,730
Speaker 1: pilot relayed the news to Winnipeg, asking them to clear

627
00:35:45,770 --> 00:35:49,250
Speaker 1: the area and get the emergency crews ready. But it

628
00:35:49,330 --> 00:35:52,410
Speaker 1: wasn't clear how the plane would even aim at Winnipeg,

629
00:35:52,970 --> 00:35:56,690
Speaker 1: let alone travels sixty five miles to reach it, or

630
00:35:57,010 --> 00:36:00,410
Speaker 1: is that one hundred and four kilometers whatever. As Pearson

631
00:36:00,770 --> 00:36:04,330
Speaker 1: hastily calculated his rate of dissent. He realized there was

632
00:36:04,450 --> 00:36:08,090
Speaker 1: absolutely no way they could glide all the way to Winnipeg,

633
00:36:10,770 --> 00:36:15,410
Speaker 1: and the second glimmer, a Boeing seven six seven, might

634
00:36:15,530 --> 00:36:20,130
Speaker 1: be a terrible glider that Captain Bob Pearson was an

635
00:36:20,170 --> 00:36:30,450
Speaker 1: excellent glider pilot. Gimley Motorsports Park boasts a dragstrip, a

636
00:36:30,530 --> 00:36:35,130
Speaker 1: carting track, a motocross track, and a long racetrack. The

637
00:36:35,210 --> 00:36:37,410
Speaker 1: racetrack is so long because it used to be a

638
00:36:37,450 --> 00:36:40,970
Speaker 1: base for the Royal Canadian Air Force. The Air Force

639
00:36:40,970 --> 00:36:44,170
Speaker 1: base had closed back in nineteen seventy one, and by

640
00:36:44,210 --> 00:36:46,970
Speaker 1: nineteen eighty three it had been a bustling home for

641
00:36:47,090 --> 00:36:51,450
Speaker 1: motorsports for more than a decade. On July the twenty third,

642
00:36:51,690 --> 00:36:55,930
Speaker 1: nineteen eighty three, Gimbley Motorsports Park was hosting a family

643
00:36:56,010 --> 00:37:01,450
Speaker 1: day featuring races on the old runway. The area around

644
00:37:01,530 --> 00:37:05,690
Speaker 1: the decommissioned runway was bustling with camper vans, tents and cars.

645
00:37:06,410 --> 00:37:08,890
Speaker 1: Children were riding their bikes up and down the tarmac.

646
00:37:09,850 --> 00:37:12,170
Speaker 1: None of this, alas was known to the crew of

647
00:37:12,290 --> 00:37:15,850
Speaker 1: Air Canada one four to three or to air traffic

648
00:37:15,890 --> 00:37:16,930
Speaker 1: control at Winnipeg.

649
00:37:17,530 --> 00:37:18,970
Speaker 3: Why would it.

650
00:37:18,970 --> 00:37:21,850
Speaker 1: It's not as if the Winnipeg Sports Car Club is

651
00:37:21,850 --> 00:37:25,250
Speaker 1: in the habit of sharing their timetable with Air Canada

652
00:37:25,410 --> 00:37:30,730
Speaker 1: after all. But up in the cockpit, Captain Pearson's co

653
00:37:30,890 --> 00:37:35,130
Speaker 1: pilot had suggested trying to glide in and land on

654
00:37:35,210 --> 00:37:40,370
Speaker 1: the old Gimli Air Strip. It wasn't even listed as

655
00:37:40,410 --> 00:37:43,570
Speaker 1: a possible landing strip, but the co pilot had been

656
00:37:43,610 --> 00:37:47,490
Speaker 1: stationed there as an Air Force officer years before, and

657
00:37:47,530 --> 00:37:50,530
Speaker 1: there was nowhere else they could reach. But as the

658
00:37:50,530 --> 00:37:54,490
Speaker 1: plane descended towards the air strip, the crew tried to

659
00:37:54,610 --> 00:37:59,010
Speaker 1: manually lower and lock the undercarriage with the front wheel

660
00:37:59,210 --> 00:38:05,570
Speaker 1: fighting against the wind. They didn't succeed. Swooping out of

661
00:38:05,650 --> 00:38:09,490
Speaker 1: the Canadian skies towards the only strip of Concer they

662
00:38:09,530 --> 00:38:15,090
Speaker 1: could find a safe landing seemed an almost impossible dream.

663
00:38:15,530 --> 00:38:19,170
Speaker 1: The plane was hard to control, very much at risk

664
00:38:19,250 --> 00:38:23,090
Speaker 1: of touching down one wingtip or another and flipping into

665
00:38:23,130 --> 00:38:27,330
Speaker 1: a fatal cartwheel. It was traveling too fast and there

666
00:38:27,330 --> 00:38:31,050
Speaker 1: was no obvious way to slow its descent, and if

667
00:38:31,050 --> 00:38:34,490
Speaker 1: they did land, there were no ambulances or fire crews

668
00:38:34,530 --> 00:38:38,250
Speaker 1: at the old Gimley Air Force Base. In fact, as

669
00:38:38,250 --> 00:38:41,250
Speaker 1: far as Captain Pearson and his team knew, there was

670
00:38:41,290 --> 00:38:45,610
Speaker 1: nobody at Gimley at all. It was at about this

671
00:38:45,690 --> 00:38:50,730
Speaker 1: point that Pearson noticed three children on bicycles in the

672
00:38:50,730 --> 00:38:56,210
Speaker 1: middle of the runway ahead of him. Bicycles or no bicycles.

673
00:38:56,570 --> 00:38:59,850
Speaker 1: Pearson was coming in too quickly, and if he couldn't

674
00:38:59,890 --> 00:39:04,370
Speaker 1: slow down, everyone in the plane was doomed. He tried

675
00:39:04,370 --> 00:39:07,290
Speaker 1: a maneuver that was common enough with gliders but seemed

676
00:39:07,410 --> 00:39:12,370
Speaker 1: absurd in a passenger jet, Using all his might to

677
00:39:12,490 --> 00:39:15,930
Speaker 1: move the stubborn controls, he used the ailerons on the

678
00:39:15,970 --> 00:39:20,010
Speaker 1: wings to steer the plane left, and the rudder to

679
00:39:20,090 --> 00:39:24,170
Speaker 1: steer the plane right. A plane's nose pointed left, its

680
00:39:24,250 --> 00:39:27,050
Speaker 1: tail stuck out to the right, but the plane itself

681
00:39:27,170 --> 00:39:31,530
Speaker 1: kept moving straight forward. It had entered a side slip,

682
00:39:31,810 --> 00:39:37,490
Speaker 1: the aerial equivalent of a skid. The stunt dramatically increased

683
00:39:37,530 --> 00:39:42,450
Speaker 1: the drag on the plane, which slowed and flocked out

684
00:39:42,490 --> 00:39:51,450
Speaker 1: of the sky. The curious thing about a glider is

685
00:39:51,490 --> 00:39:54,450
Speaker 1: that it doesn't make a lot of noise. This is

686
00:39:54,570 --> 00:39:57,370
Speaker 1: true even if the glider happens to be a Boeing

687
00:39:57,450 --> 00:40:02,210
Speaker 1: seven sixty seven. The happy families camping at the far

688
00:40:02,450 --> 00:40:05,450
Speaker 1: end of the runway got their first warning that they

689
00:40:05,450 --> 00:40:08,890
Speaker 1: were about to have an unusual family day at give

690
00:40:09,290 --> 00:40:13,050
Speaker 1: motors Boards Park when they heard a bag and an

691
00:40:13,130 --> 00:40:18,850
Speaker 1: unholy scraping sound from down the racetrack. There in the distance,

692
00:40:19,650 --> 00:40:22,850
Speaker 1: in a flurry of sparks and a cloud of white smoke,

693
00:40:23,690 --> 00:40:27,410
Speaker 1: was a Boeing seven sixty seven. The three boys on

694
00:40:27,490 --> 00:40:32,690
Speaker 1: bicycles were pedaling furiously towards them, yelling something indistinct but urgent,

695
00:40:33,690 --> 00:40:38,330
Speaker 1: And then a moment later that Boeing seven sixty seven

696
00:40:38,570 --> 00:40:41,930
Speaker 1: wasn't in the distance anymore. It was sliding down the

697
00:40:41,970 --> 00:40:49,530
Speaker 1: runway towards them, all very very fast. The planes undercarriage

698
00:40:49,690 --> 00:40:53,570
Speaker 1: had collapsed, which turned out to be a blessing in disguise.

699
00:40:54,850 --> 00:41:05,170
Speaker 1: The plane stop short, the inflatable slides were deployed. The passengers,

700
00:41:05,250 --> 00:41:09,370
Speaker 1: sobbing with relief or stunned into silence, scrambled off the

701
00:41:09,370 --> 00:41:12,530
Speaker 1: plane to find themselves the new main attraction of a

702
00:41:12,570 --> 00:41:18,210
Speaker 1: family motorsport festival, with carters hurrying up with portable fire extinguishers,

703
00:41:19,050 --> 00:41:23,690
Speaker 1: but there wasn't any fuel left to catch fire. Passengers

704
00:41:23,770 --> 00:41:27,170
Speaker 1: leaving on the rear slides suffered a painful landing because

705
00:41:27,210 --> 00:41:29,210
Speaker 1: the back of the plane was sticking up in an

706
00:41:29,330 --> 00:41:35,410
Speaker 1: undignified fashion, and the slides weren't quite long enough. But nobody,

707
00:41:35,450 --> 00:41:40,610
Speaker 1: either in the plane or on the ground, suffered serious harm.

708
00:41:40,770 --> 00:41:44,690
Speaker 1: But this is cautionary tales. We can't just say they

709
00:41:44,770 --> 00:41:48,410
Speaker 1: all lived happily ever after. We need to learn a

710
00:41:48,490 --> 00:41:56,450
Speaker 1: lesson from this fiasco, and perhaps it's this organizational memory matters.

711
00:41:57,690 --> 00:42:01,210
Speaker 1: Just as British Waterways had long ago forgotten that the

712
00:42:01,290 --> 00:42:06,970
Speaker 1: Chesterfield Canal had plugs, Air Canada had forgotten that sometimes

713
00:42:06,970 --> 00:42:10,770
Speaker 1: you need to calculate a fuel loads annually. The flight

714
00:42:10,810 --> 00:42:14,170
Speaker 1: engineers who once had to do the job no longer existed,

715
00:42:14,770 --> 00:42:18,530
Speaker 1: so it was nobody in particular's responsibility to get the

716
00:42:18,610 --> 00:42:22,290
Speaker 1: job right, not to mention that the documentation made the

717
00:42:22,370 --> 00:42:28,730
Speaker 1: task extremely challenging. Doing a complex piece of arithmetic suddenly

718
00:42:28,770 --> 00:42:32,690
Speaker 1: became a matter of life and death, and the crew

719
00:42:33,450 --> 00:42:37,730
Speaker 1: had forgotten how to do it. Thank goodness that Captain

720
00:42:37,890 --> 00:42:42,570
Speaker 1: Pearson hadn't forgotten how to glide. He managed to get

721
00:42:42,610 --> 00:42:47,490
Speaker 1: his malfunctioning passenger aircraft to fly forty miles without fuel,

722
00:42:48,090 --> 00:42:51,050
Speaker 1: to touch down within eight hundred feet of the start

723
00:42:51,090 --> 00:42:54,810
Speaker 1: of a short six eight hundred foot airstrip, and to

724
00:42:54,890 --> 00:43:00,730
Speaker 1: make that touchdown if not gentle, then, shall we say decisive.

725
00:43:04,210 --> 00:43:07,290
Speaker 1: Other pilots have been given this scenario to try out

726
00:43:07,330 --> 00:43:24,490
Speaker 1: in a flight simulator. The usual result is a catastrophic crash.

727
00:43:24,570 --> 00:43:28,410
Speaker 1: There is a whole catalog of cautionary tales full of

728
00:43:28,530 --> 00:43:32,010
Speaker 1: epic mistakes that I hope we can all learn from.

729
00:43:32,050 --> 00:43:34,130
Speaker 1: And if you're all caught up on those stories, We've

730
00:43:34,250 --> 00:43:38,330
Speaker 1: just launched a cautionary Club with bonus episodes every month,

731
00:43:38,570 --> 00:43:41,850
Speaker 1: regular updates from me, and a newsletter that includes some

732
00:43:42,050 --> 00:43:45,930
Speaker 1: extra curiosities. I hope you'll sign up at patreon dot

733
00:43:45,930 --> 00:43:51,890
Speaker 1: com slash Cautionary Club. This episode was written by me,

734
00:43:52,170 --> 00:43:56,050
Speaker 1: Tim Harford and produced by Georgia Mills and Isaac Carter,

735
00:43:56,370 --> 00:44:00,250
Speaker 1: with help from Marilyn Rust. Thanks also to Nate Silver

736
00:44:00,450 --> 00:44:05,170
Speaker 1: and Maria Konnikova from Risky Business, Jonathan Goldstein from Heavyweight,

737
00:44:05,490 --> 00:44:09,930
Speaker 1: and his special guest Sheila Hetty. This episode was edited

738
00:44:10,050 --> 00:44:14,170
Speaker 1: by Sarah Nix. The sound design and original music are

739
00:44:14,210 --> 00:44:18,530
Speaker 1: the work of Pascal Wise. The show wouldn't have been

740
00:44:18,570 --> 00:44:23,170
Speaker 1: possible without the work of Jacob Weisberg, Ryan Dilly, Greta Cohne,

741
00:44:23,370 --> 00:44:28,770
Speaker 1: Eric Sandler, Carrie Brody, Christina Sullivan, Kira Posey and Owen Miller,