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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five, part of The Action Network. I am Chad Milman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today is our

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Speaker 1: week four Thursday NFL episode. This is the episode where

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get feedback from the wise guys who listen

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Speaker 1: to the show for our sharp calls. We're gonna make

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Speaker 1: our Survivor pick. We're gonna build our money line under

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Speaker 1: Dog round Robin parlay. We're gonna give out our Foxhold bet.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna give out our big Balls bet of the Week.

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Speaker 1: We've already had a lot of conversations pre show about that.

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Speaker 1: We're going to narrow down our picks for the free

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Speaker 1: to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them contest. As our old pal Colin Coward likes

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Speaker 1: to say, there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 2: There's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: You want to follow along with our official bets, check

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Speaker 1: them out on the contest website favorite dot Actionnetwork dot

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Speaker 1: com when we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: If you prefer using the award winning Action app, you

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Speaker 1: can also track all the bets Simon and I lock

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Speaker 1: in by following two accounts, The Faves five and The

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Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. It's time for the main event. Let's bring

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Speaker 1: in my co host, my companion, Mi cam Padre, my BFF,

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Speaker 1: Professional Better, Simon Hunter, hellosay Man, Simon Simon. I've made

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Speaker 1: about ten bets that I've put into the Action Network app,

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Speaker 1: and on every single one of them, I've gotten some

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Speaker 1: closing line value. Doesn't mean that they're going to win,

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Speaker 1: but it does mean when I look at it, I

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Speaker 1: feel good about the decisions I've made. And honestly, it

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Speaker 1: feels like this is the first week since the season

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Speaker 1: started where I don't have just chaos swirling in my

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Speaker 1: head as I'm thinking about our and our potential lineup.

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Speaker 1: How about you, I'm.

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Speaker 2: Right there with you. I like to lie to myself

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Speaker 2: about having good closing line value as well, but at

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Speaker 2: the end of the day, what did our guys scoot?

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Speaker 2: You always say the right size the winning side, so

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Speaker 2: it don't matter if you've got the best number for

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Speaker 2: in a winner. So yeah, I'm with you. It feels

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Speaker 2: good getting some good numbers here, But yeah, like this

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Speaker 2: this week might be a slaughter for the public. Chat

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Speaker 2: like the way these betting trends are looking, the way

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Speaker 2: the numbers are moving. People love their road favorites this week,

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Speaker 2: and we joke all the time like we make our

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Speaker 2: money off home dogs. This looks like a good week

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Speaker 2: to be backing the home dog Chat. So yeah, excited

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Speaker 2: to dive into this week again.

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Speaker 1: There are some really interesting games and closing line value.

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Speaker 1: I feel like it's the handrail on the roller coaster

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Speaker 1: of betting, Like we're just saying it on it's what's

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Speaker 1: keeping us strapped in until Sunday comes. As a reminder

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Speaker 1: of the Favorites podcast is presented by a Bet three

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Speaker 1: six five. Bet three six five doesn't You Ordinary? They

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Speaker 1: believe that every sport should be epic every touchdown, every game,

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Speaker 1: every point, every play, from the moments that our legendary

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Speaker 1: to the ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself.

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Speaker 1: And you sign up today with Code Action and you'll

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Speaker 1: get three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet just one dollar. Whatever the moment, whatever

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Speaker 1: the sport, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older, must

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Speaker 1: be present in Colorado, Kentucky, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia.

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Speaker 1: If you or someone you know has a gambling problem

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Speaker 1: and wants help, call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, or one eight hundred bets

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Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. Welcome to all

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Speaker 1: the new legal betters in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. As

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Speaker 1: of today, it's exciting. Week four kickoff is approaching opportunities

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Speaker 1: all over the board. As we said, let's not Diley Dally,

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Speaker 1: It's time four sharp calls Hello, who's there?

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Speaker 2: I'm talking ring telepone rate somebody saying maybe want to

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Speaker 2: do the man, And I'll just say, I do love

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Speaker 2: closing line value. I mean, Chad love it. We live

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Speaker 2: by it. But it's I try it to, you know.

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Speaker 2: I try to be real with the people here, Like

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Speaker 2: I can't get that much money down Sunday, Monday or Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: The books just don't take that much money. So, you know,

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Speaker 2: a lot of the lot of the way this works

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Speaker 2: is certain sports books. I'm friendly with the people that

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Speaker 2: run it there, and my runners are too. And we

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Speaker 2: know some people and if say, like a good example.

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Speaker 2: This week, everyone in their grandmam is coming on Denver.

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Speaker 2: They're going to reach out to people like me to

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Speaker 2: get some money. On the other side, that's just the

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Speaker 2: way it is. And we will negotiate and argue about numbers.

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Speaker 2: If they have a three, I'll be like, I want

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Speaker 2: to three and a half. Don't call them lets you

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Speaker 2: have a three and a half. So that's what I'm

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Speaker 2: trying to get down is like closeline value. Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: love it early in the week, but most times, if

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Speaker 2: you want to get anything above ten k, they don't

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Speaker 2: really open the books until Wednesday, Thursday, Friday to take

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Speaker 2: those kind of bets. So yeah, that's this week the pros.

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Speaker 2: I mean, there's so much argument. The biggest argument is

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Speaker 2: going to be this Jets Chiefs game, right Chad, And

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Speaker 2: I think every pro in the world is like, give

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Speaker 2: me the ten. I dare you to give me the ten.

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Speaker 2: And we saw the ten touched at a couple of

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Speaker 2: books and it's gone, and you know, that's a game

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Speaker 2: we're going to discuss further on. But it's like, if

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Speaker 2: you listen to this show, if you want to bet

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Speaker 2: like the pros, you want to take the lines that's

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Speaker 2: a good number of a team that's undervalued against a

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Speaker 2: team that's hot, heavily overvalued. In a primetime game, you're

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Speaker 2: going to be taking the Jets with us, So no

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Speaker 2: shock in anyone. That was a big discussion. The more

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Speaker 2: shocking game to me was me and you both loved

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Speaker 2: Houston this week. I've talked to a bunch of approach

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Speaker 2: who really like Pittsburgh in the spot and Pittsburgh's you

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Speaker 2: know whatever, the reasoning is. The biggest one is they

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Speaker 2: have TJ going up against two backups at left and

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Speaker 2: right tackle, and that's a fair argument. Maybe me and

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Speaker 2: Chad won't end up on that because we won't get

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Speaker 2: to three and a half, but at three, I felt

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Speaker 2: like we got a good bet and like you said,

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Speaker 2: closing line value, that's probably not gonna go above three.

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Speaker 2: If anything, I could see it going two and a

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Speaker 2: half two. So that was a big one. In the

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Speaker 2: next game. I think everyone was in linement on even

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Speaker 2: when we did this show, it's that Tennessee. Never Chad, like,

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Speaker 2: we saw a lot of books dip down to two

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Speaker 2: one and a half. Now you've seen some money come

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Speaker 2: on the other side and went back to two, went

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Speaker 2: back up to two and a half, but definitely know

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Speaker 2: some really smart guys coming in on this Tennessee team.

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Speaker 2: They just like the spot against a Joe Burrow that

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Speaker 2: doesn't look the same, so perfect spot to Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 2: Get right. We talk all the time that's one of

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Speaker 2: the worst secondaries in football Tennessee. But the pros like Tennessee,

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Speaker 2: so we definitely feel good. And we got that number

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Speaker 2: two and a half saw a drop down, so not

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Speaker 2: too shocking. That's gonna be one of the more publicly

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Speaker 2: bet games as well. This week. One I'm shocked by,

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Speaker 2: Chad was the Bills. I thought it was gonna be

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Speaker 2: like most people like us loving this Bills team. A

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Speaker 2: lot of guys are scared of this Miami team. Chad,

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Speaker 2: and the guys who haven't been playing Miami have just

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Speaker 2: been on the sideline, Like I know, plenty of guys

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Speaker 2: that didn't go in on Denver. You know, they kept saying,

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Speaker 2: I don't know how good is this Denver defense. I

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Speaker 2: don't if they'll be able to get any stops, And

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Speaker 2: they were right. They gave up seventy points. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: we did a film session yesterday and it just I

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Speaker 2: have so much confidence right now in Josh Allen that

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Speaker 2: if you can still get two and a half, I

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Speaker 2: just don't know how you don't take this number. And

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Speaker 2: I get all the love and all the hype, and

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Speaker 2: I saw Stucky posted that hilarious joke on Twitter teams

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Speaker 2: that scored seventy points or zero to one ats the

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Speaker 2: following week, So yeah, it's stupid, but I'm trying to

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Speaker 2: be like, there's a Pros and get scared by this

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Speaker 2: Miami team. It's like, we got to stick to the numbers,

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Speaker 2: what we believe in, Chad, and that's a game we're

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Speaker 2: going to break down that. I don't know how we

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Speaker 2: won't have this in our contest at minus two and

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Speaker 2: a half. It's just such a nice number and a

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Speaker 2: good spot. So yeah, pretty not shocking that the Pros

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Speaker 2: love all the home dogs, but I was shocked by

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Speaker 2: the love for Pittsburgh, and I just I'm not seeing

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Speaker 2: with Pittsburgh chat. I just can't get behind it. So

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Speaker 2: maybe we won't take Houston and our contest out of

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Speaker 2: respect for these guys, But it definitely was shocking to

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Speaker 2: me these guys like Pittsburgh so much.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot to say about a lot of what

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Speaker 1: you just said. The Houston game is fascinating. You mentioned Stucky,

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Speaker 1: Stucky and Raybon on the Sunday six pack, which you

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Speaker 1: can catch on YouTube Wednesday nights and in the Action

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Speaker 1: Network Pod on Thursdays. They talked about this game a

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Speaker 1: lot and Raybond loved Houston. So that makes me feel

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Speaker 1: a little bit better. I'm glad to hear that we're

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Speaker 1: on the right side with Tennessee. Mimmy Buffalo look yesterday

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Speaker 1: on the film Session, which everyone needs to go watch

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Speaker 1: if you didn't, it's on YouTube. Me and Simon broke

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Speaker 1: down a play by Devon h Chan from the Dolphins

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Speaker 1: reverse where he ran through the Broncos defense and a

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Speaker 1: play by Josh Allen where he rolled out right and

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Speaker 1: hit Stefan Diggs like on a rope in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the field on a play that had completely broken down.

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Speaker 1: And it's one of the reasons we like the Bills

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Speaker 1: at minus two and a half. It's why we bet

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen at ten to one as MVP, because if

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Speaker 1: they win this game, those odds are gonna be cut

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Speaker 1: in half. You know. I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: good stuff to talk about. It's a great week for betting.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The

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Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube right now,

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Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like. Subscribe to the

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Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. You can also check us out

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Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. We got to start narrowing

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Speaker 1: down O games. We got to get to our Foxhoul.

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Speaker 1: We got to get to Survivor. We got to get

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Speaker 1: to the big balls bet of the week. Man, can

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Speaker 1: we talk about that Denver Bears game? Because right now

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Speaker 1: that game is at three. We liked the Bears at

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Speaker 1: three and a half. That game is at three at

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Speaker 1: bet three six five. But I'll also tell you right

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Speaker 1: now at the contest, which we're trying to be more

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Speaker 1: cognizant because these lines in the contest have been messing

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Speaker 1: with our head, that game is at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: In the contest, it's a three at bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: So we're talking about two different things here. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to confuse them. I don't like the Bears at

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Speaker 1: plus three. I do like them at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: You can't get them at three and a half in

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Speaker 1: a lot of places. Simon thoughts on the Bears at

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Speaker 1: plus three sought that the thoughts on the Bears at

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Speaker 1: plus three and a half in the contest.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it. I'm trying hard not to

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Speaker 2: hate it. Chad. My fear is I just go back

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Speaker 2: and watch it tape, and like, your coaching staff is

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Speaker 2: just terrible. Like I don't know, I have no idea

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Speaker 2: what offense they're running. And it is week four, so

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Speaker 2: it's all bad. But I think we're both just going

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Speaker 2: to trust the number, trust the spot and faded. Every

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Speaker 2: team that offensively v is good, like they're gonna be

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Speaker 2: able to score against this Bears team. Chat. That's the

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Speaker 2: weary here. But their defense is so bad and they're

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Speaker 2: so bad against the run. I mean, how did like,

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Speaker 2: you guys have three really talented running backs including your quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: so you know, I don't see how the Bears can't

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Speaker 2: stay in this game. It's just the fear here is

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Speaker 2: your guys are so mismatched at I mean, I'm not

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Speaker 2: here to shoot on fields, but Russell Wilson worse seasons

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Speaker 2: better than any season Field has ever had. And this

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Speaker 2: season you can't put the blame on Russell Wilson for

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Speaker 2: Denver struggle. He has played well in this new cheampagne system.

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Speaker 2: So these are all the fears about why I'm trying

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Speaker 2: to get there with the Bears. But I'm telling each

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Speaker 2: od I talked to a lot of pros. They want

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Speaker 2: nothing to do with this team. They got no faith,

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Speaker 2: They've seen nothing from them. Even though it's an amazing

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Speaker 2: number and a great spot to take them, they just

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Speaker 2: they're like, that's just a black hole you're gonna keep

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Speaker 2: We're gonna keep throwing money in there and it might

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Speaker 2: work out this week, but consistently, like this is a

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Speaker 2: team that I can't wait to bet in week twelve thirteen,

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Speaker 2: when everyone's officially off the tracks. But that's why it

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Speaker 2: feels like we have to take it this week where

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Speaker 2: it's like no one wants it, Like I don't even

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Speaker 2: know what when I checked it like our action app

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Speaker 2: and see there's money coming in on the Bears. I

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Speaker 2: would love to talk to these people because I've thrown

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Speaker 2: money on it, but it's like, you know, a couple

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Speaker 2: thousand bucks, Like I can't really go big on this one,

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Speaker 2: even though it's such a great number. So if it's

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Speaker 2: three and a half, it's it's way higher likely that

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Speaker 2: we have this in the contest. Then again, we talked

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Speaker 2: about earlier, which was another three and a half game,

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Speaker 2: was I was like, Okay, maybe I'd be on the Panthers.

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Speaker 2: That's gone. Bryce Sean is gonna be back. I'm totally

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Speaker 2: out on them. If it's Bryceheaan a quarterback against the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, if we're talking about one of these ugly

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Speaker 2: home dogs, the Bears are right up there. So I'm

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Speaker 2: right there with you chat three and a half, we

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Speaker 2: probably have to have to put it in the contest.

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Speaker 1: Let me give you some stats, because I think the

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Speaker 1: Broncos have some issues that are not fixable from one

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Speaker 1: week to another. On defense, they've allowed twelve penalties that

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Speaker 1: have led to first downs. That's first overall in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: which means they're just incredibly undisciplined. And like, you don't

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Speaker 1: fix discipline from one week to the other over the

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Speaker 1: course of you know, three practices, right that needs to

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Speaker 1: be ingrained from training camp on. That's the kind of

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Speaker 1: thing you start to fix later in the year if

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Speaker 1: you're lucky enough to fix it. Eleven red zone touchdowns

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Speaker 1: most in the NFL allowed by the Broncos. But here's

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Speaker 1: one thing That's really interesting to me. Evan Abrams told

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Speaker 1: me this the other day. Remember last year, the Bears

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Speaker 1: got better when they allowed Justin Fields to run an RPO, right,

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Speaker 1: and that's when all of a sudden their offense started

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Speaker 1: to open up a little bit. Justin Fields has two

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Speaker 1: RPOs this year, Mac Jones has three. Like if ever,

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Speaker 1: there was going to be a week where I believe

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Speaker 1: the Bears will open up their offense and put Justin

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Speaker 1: Fields in a position to run on the edge, this

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Speaker 1: is the week. That's why I'm buying into the Bears

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Speaker 1: more than anything. But I'm not saying, like, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: this is like a line in the sand for me,

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Speaker 1: a deal breaker. Is that three and a half? I

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Speaker 1: think it's a part of the conversation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I'm I agree.

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Speaker 1: Okay, next up Cincinnati, Tennessee. And this is where it

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Speaker 1: gets interesting, right because it's at two at that three

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Speaker 1: sixty five, and I think we loved it at two

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Speaker 1: and a half. I said it was my exec decision.

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Speaker 1: It is a two and a half in the contest,

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Speaker 1: and like, as we think about this, I said this,

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Speaker 1: and we're strategizing about the contest. We want to do better,

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Speaker 1: like we have to start locking lines on Thursday when

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Speaker 1: we if we see a majority of the lines that

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Speaker 1: we like, we're getting a little bit of an edge.

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Speaker 1: So is that two and a half in the contest?

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Speaker 1: But I think we love Tennessee either.

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Speaker 2: Way, this is a no brainer. You gotta bet this.

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Speaker 2: You gotta bet the money line. If you listen to

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Speaker 2: the show, you know the stat no one is better

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Speaker 2: straight up as a dog than Rabel in the NFL history.

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Speaker 2: So ye, yeah, you just gotta sprinkle some on the

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Speaker 2: money line and take the two and a half.

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Speaker 1: I believe Simon said this will be one of our

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Speaker 1: bets on Sunday. He said it on Tuesday. It was

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Speaker 1: my exec decision. I still love it. The wise guys

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Speaker 1: love it. All the tickets coming in on the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: all the money coming in on the Titans. That's everything

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Speaker 1: you need to know. Lock it in, Titans, Matt Mitchell.

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Speaker 1: I want confirmation that we are going to lock this

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Speaker 1: in Tennessee on Sunday. Confirmed confirmed? All right, good. It's

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Speaker 1: not our big balls, it's not our foxhol yet, but

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Speaker 1: it is a big game for us. All right, Let's

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Speaker 1: talk about Miami and Buffalo. Let's not waste time. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I get why people are nervous about it. It was

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Speaker 1: our Simon says, it's still a two and a half

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Speaker 1: across the board, but it's two and a half minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty. So this is this just feels like a

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Speaker 1: smash spot for the Bills. I know there's trends against it,

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Speaker 1: smash spot. No, it does. It does like everyone's freaking

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Speaker 1: out about Miami. Everyone is freaking out about Miami. The

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Speaker 1: Patriots played them well. Sean McDermott has played the Bills

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Speaker 1: really well. I mean has played the Dolphins really well.

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Speaker 1: Two is like his completion percentage against the Bills fifty

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Speaker 1: nine percent. No was QBR fifty nine percent, everyone else

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Speaker 1: the lowest, Like he's above eighty. So Sean McDermott knows

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Speaker 1: what to do when he's playing against TWOA and now

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Speaker 1: he's got three weeks of film and a Patriots game

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Speaker 1: to see how they were stopping him. I like the

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Speaker 1: Bills as a short home favorite. I'm just going to

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Speaker 1: love it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not going crazy on it though, Like that

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Speaker 2: Tennessee game.

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Speaker 1: I put fifty dollars on it, and to me, you know,

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Speaker 1: the books called to negotiate and I was like, listen,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going any higher than two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I would not do that. This the reason people hate

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Speaker 2: this game is it feels like whoever as the ball

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Speaker 2: lasts is probably gonna win. Right. That's and betters don't

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Speaker 2: want to put themselves in those kind of spots where

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Speaker 2: you know, say what you want about this Bills team

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Speaker 2: and how good they've looked. They got like two of

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Speaker 2: the oldest safeties in football going against Waddle and Tyreek Hill.

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Speaker 2: That's going to be a problem, and you know mcdermot's

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Speaker 2: got to scheme that up and figure out how to

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Speaker 2: keep all of it in front of them. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's again I'm trying not to leak confidence on this

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Speaker 2: one because I've already bet it heavily. But it's just

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Speaker 2: every day it gets a little scary as we get

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Speaker 2: closer to kickoff from mea chat where it's just I'm

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Speaker 2: so deep now now I'm about to lose a nice

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Speaker 2: house on this Miami team. If we've gone from a

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Speaker 2: nice car to a nice house. If they covered this week,

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Speaker 2: I'm getting killed here. So like, we have to trust

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Speaker 2: football in the spots, and you know, not only does

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Speaker 2: numbers say This is good. This is just how it is.

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Speaker 1: Man.

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Speaker 2: No teams go undefeated, no teams that you know you

355
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Speaker 2: can be the all hype team. You can have seventy

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Speaker 2: points one week and then you can be the dog

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Speaker 2: the next week and just be embarrassed what the book

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Speaker 2: is telling you with this number, Say Miami really was

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Speaker 2: that team everyone proceeds them to be, this number would

360
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Speaker 2: have gone from two and a half to one and

361
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Speaker 2: a half to be one and a half at a

362
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Speaker 2: pick right now, Like that's where this number would I went.

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Speaker 2: If the professionals would have said, Miami is this real team?

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Speaker 2: You've seen the professionals of coming on the bills or

365
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Speaker 2: they're sitting it out, and that's just how they're going

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Speaker 2: to play this one where it's like I don't know

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Speaker 2: any pros coming in on Miami because it's such a

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Speaker 2: bad spot for a team and such a letdown game

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Speaker 2: and then a divisional game. Like what's working for them

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Speaker 2: right now is I just look at the weather report

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Speaker 2: before he came on. It's perfect for what Miami wants. Right,

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be seventy you know, no rain, no nothing,

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be like the perfect day for Miami. So

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Speaker 2: they won't have. You know, what makes the Bill's home

375
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Speaker 2: field advantage special is that you know either the winds

376
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Speaker 2: or the storms that get up there in New York.

377
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Speaker 2: This is an early October game, So like the scheduling

378
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Speaker 2: guys did the Bills no favor here. But what you

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Speaker 2: just said to me is the biggest thing that when

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Speaker 2: a team like Miami plays the way they did the

381
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Speaker 2: week before, they're going to be the public team, like

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Speaker 2: everyone's going to love them. So we just we have

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Speaker 2: to take a stand and trust our numbers and take

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Speaker 2: the Bills. Heare, and I hope people listening to us,

385
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Speaker 2: I get it. You're so skeptical and you just don't

386
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Speaker 2: want to do it, but you kind of have to, Like,

387
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Speaker 2: you have to play the numbers here. You have to

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Speaker 2: play this divisional team that you're catching over under a

389
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Speaker 2: field goal, Like there's still plenty of two and a

390
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Speaker 2: half's out there, and I don't think they're going to

391
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Speaker 2: be there for much longer. I do think that's going

392
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Speaker 2: to close it three by kickoff. So so I'm gonna

393
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Speaker 2: trust it, Chad, We're going to have this one in

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Speaker 2: the contests minus two and a half. Give me the Bills.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think there's a few things that are interesting.

396
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Speaker 1: And to your point, fifty to fifty on the tickets,

397
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Speaker 1: which to me says the public is really on Miami,

398
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Speaker 1: but eighty two percent of the money is on Buffalo,

399
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Speaker 1: which tells you the professionals are on Buffalo. And too,

400
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Speaker 1: it speaks to exactly what you just said, like the

401
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,680
Speaker 1: professionals are either sitting this out or betting on Buffalo.

402
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Speaker 1: And so I think Buffalo has an equally good offense.

403
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Speaker 1: Don't forget they just demolished teams back to back that

404
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 1: it looked good the week before, right, and it basically

405
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Speaker 1: did the same thing that the Dolphins have done against

406
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Speaker 1: two teams that were not very good in putting up

407
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Speaker 1: seventy on the Broncos and winning handily in Week one,

408
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Speaker 1: and then you know, having a harder time with the Patriots.

409
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Speaker 1: But the Bills just have a better defense. And so

410
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Speaker 1: if we're talking about let's say Miami has a really

411
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Speaker 1: good offense and the Bills have a really good offense.

412
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Speaker 1: Let's say the let's say Miami has a spectacular offense

413
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Speaker 1: and the Bills have a really good offense. The Bills

414
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Speaker 1: have a top seven defense, They're getting the most pressure

415
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Speaker 1: in the NFL, and they're their blitz rate is the

416
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Speaker 1: lowest in the NFL. So they're getting on a four

417
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Speaker 1: man front and they have the most sacks in the NFL.

418
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Speaker 1: That's not anything that I know.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to react tough. They've played Zach Wilson,

420
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Speaker 2: Jimmy Garoppolo, and Sam how.

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Speaker 1: So then you could overreact the same way for the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins offense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's what we're not going to do with

424
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Speaker 2: them getting seventy. But at the same time, like we're

425
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Speaker 2: gonna learn a lot about the Bills defense here. This

426
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Speaker 2: is like my big point. Like I just told you

427
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Speaker 2: they got old ass. They got old ass safeties. Like

428
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Speaker 2: that's if I'm going to point to a weakness on

429
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Speaker 2: this team. They have old safeties, which they might be

430
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 2: smart as hell. They're gonna be able to read what

431
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 2: Miami is going to do, and they really keep Tyreek

432
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 2: and Waddell from going downfield. And like that's why I

433
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 2: can't wait to see it, because that's that's all this

434
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 2: is gonna come down to. Because I'm in total agreemance

435
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 2: with you. I think the Bills have a better defense

436
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 2: in Miami, like Miami's defense to me, is not that good.

437
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 2: Like they have a bunch of guys who have just

438
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 2: aged out. I mean Howard, who's supposed to be their

439
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 2: best corner. He was supposed to be their number two

440
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 2: because I brought in a Ramsey like that was supposed

441
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 2: to be their guy. That's a big deal. When now

442
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:27,919
Speaker 2: you have Howard trying to cover digs or gave Davis,

443
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 2: He's going to lose that battle every time. So again,

444
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 2: I'm very confident in this this Bill's team. It just

445
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 2: means you will not be shocked if you know, with

446
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 2: two minutes ago, they're up three the Bills and two

447
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 2: as the ball and he goes on the field score

448
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 2: touchdowns somehow. I just wanted people to be ready for

449
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 2: that scenario. But don't be mad. You're playing a smart

450
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,199
Speaker 2: number here and taking this bill side. And Chad just

451
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 2: gave out that the book he's looking at, it's eighty

452
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 2: percent of the money is right now in the bills.

453
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 2: I'm looking at one of the most public books out

454
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,679
Speaker 2: there and it's about seventy percent of the money is

455
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 2: on my So I just want people to understand the

456
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 2: public is coming in on this Miami team, So don't

457
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,719
Speaker 2: be scared off that our ours are showing eighty percent.

458
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 2: That is what Chad saying that that's pro money. Where

459
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 2: at most public books Right now, all the public money

460
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:14,439
Speaker 2: is coming on this Miami team.

461
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I can't wait for this game. Here's

462
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 1: the question, how much are we going to want to

463
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 1: slack Matt Mitchell during the game? And if it's going badly,

464
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 1: I will not include him on any of the slacks

465
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 1: because I will feel so sad that he has to

466
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 1: enjoy this.

467
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 2: Yeah. I can't wait to see Matt Sunday Night. Yeah,

468
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 2: everyone's got to tune in.

469
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 1: It's by the way, everyone has to tune in Sunday

470
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 1: night just to deal with Matt Mitchell one way or

471
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:47,400
Speaker 1: the other. It is classic Buffalo luck that they've got

472
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: a great team and they got to get like a

473
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 1: juggernaut coming in on a perfect fall day in Buffalo.

474
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 1: Commanders flash to eight and a half yesterday. I bet

475
00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,120
Speaker 1: at eight and a half. We talked a lot about

476
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 1: it on on Tuesday. It's at eight now. The wise

477
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 1: guys has some thoughts on this one.

478
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:14,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a lot of them are what I

479
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 2: already talked about. Jalen Hurts is like that guy, Like,

480
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 2: it's no Fluke the twenty and one straight up in

481
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: his last twenty one games, and he's dominated at home.

482
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: And the big argument for them is stop trying to

483
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 2: do all this work and figuring out this Eagles team

484
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 2: and just bet them first half. And there's like, literally

485
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 2: we're overthinking it trying to figure out this Eagles team. Eagles,

486
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 2: you know, say what you want about them and their

487
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 2: coaching staff. This year, they're already two to one in

488
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,440
Speaker 2: the first half and over the last two years or

489
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 2: seventeen and six against the spread in the first half.

490
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 2: So it's a team that clearly they come out of

491
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 2: a really strong game plan and it works. So if

492
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: you're scared off about this big number back in this

493
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 2: Eagles team, just go first half. But we have to

494
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 2: take eight and a half, don't we chat on Washington.

495
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 2: So I'll play that number. But I just don't know

496
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 2: if this is gonna be one of our finalists in

497
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 2: the contest. Like I love the number, love the love

498
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 2: the whole idea behind it. But this Eagles team is

499
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 2: my number one Power rated team for a reason. They're

500
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 2: just really good across the board. And you know, Sam

501
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 2: played well against the Cardinals played well against Denver. Those

502
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: are two really bad teams with bad defenses, and he

503
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 2: looked really bad against a good defense in the Bills.

504
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 2: Do we think the Bill's defense is that much better

505
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 2: than the Eagles defense? Not really, Like I'd probably take

506
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 2: the Eagles defense over the Bills. So even if Sam's

507
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,959
Speaker 2: not throwing four picks, I think he's gonna throw one

508
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 2: or two up, Like he's just gonna get pressure up

509
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 2: the middle. They don't have the O line to really

510
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 2: stop this. This Eagles d tackle in tier line. So

511
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 2: we're taking the eight and a half. But if people

512
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 2: really want my strong bet on this game, I'm just

513
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 2: gonna keep riding this Eagles first half trend like that.

514
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,479
Speaker 2: You can say it's fluky last year, but you know

515
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 2: them winning eleven straight first halfs, them being seventeen and

516
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 2: six last two years in the first half, Like that's real,

517
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: real data that this team is well prepared and really

518
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 2: really run a great game script to start these games.

519
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't know why people would say anything bad

520
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: about their coaching staff. I think that Siriani is great.

521
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 1: I think he gets the team ready. I think he

522
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 1: puts together a great plan. I think they're struggling through

523
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,360
Speaker 1: the first month of the season with new coordinators. Much

524
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 1: more offensively than defensively. Jalen Carter is going to win

525
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 1: Defensive Rookie of the Year already own Jinks and Jed Yeah,

526
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: already at plus one ten at bet three six five.

527
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: But I agree with you on the contest. This is

528
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 1: going to be a tricky one right now. For the contest,

529
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: we have agreed. We love Tennessee, we love the Bills.

530
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 1: There's a couple of controversial choices coming up. Las Vegas

531
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: Raiders at Chargers plus six on Tuesday. I bet it

532
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 1: at six. It's now down to five and a half.

533
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: Wise guys coming in on the Raiders. I still like

534
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: the charger of the Raiders in this spot. I feel like,

535
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 1: if you got two knucklehead coaches and you got a

536
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 1: big number, take the underdog on the road in a

537
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: division game, and the stats, the systems will will back

538
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 1: us up.

539
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, you want to make it our foxhole?

540
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 1: Okay, Because the other two games I was thinking about,

541
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 1: we can talk about it right now, are the next

542
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: ones on the list, New England and Dallas and Casey

543
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 1: at the Jets. To me, those were going to be

544
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 1: Foxhole and Big Balls. But I'm fine making the Raiders

545
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: of Foxhole.

546
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, it just feels like, all right, let's do it.

547
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 2: Not that everyone hates this Raiders team, but they're kind

548
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: of like the Bears of last week, of the guys

549
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 2: this week. You know, they're talking a lot to the media.

550
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 2: We got Devanta Adams saying stuff, we got Max Crosby

551
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 2: saying stuff to the media, Like this feels like a

552
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 2: team that's on the teeter of exploding and this they

553
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 2: really need this game, like they really need this game

554
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 2: to kind of save their season. So you know, whether

555
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 2: Jimmy G's playing or not, we didn't care. That's why

556
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,439
Speaker 2: we grabbed the six. It still doesn't really matter to me.

557
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,199
Speaker 2: Like I'm just I'm just fading this Chargers defense that

558
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 2: I don't think they can stop anybody. And you know

559
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:21,360
Speaker 2: who whoever's back there quarterbacking this Raiders team, I think,

560
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 2: but it'll move the ball against them. So yeah, for

561
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 2: me to make this our fox Will Chat, it just

562
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 2: feels like not many people are going to be in

563
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 2: there fighting with us. Brother like this, this feels like

564
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 2: it's pretty empty, So I love it.

565
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 1: All right, Then we're going to the foxhole. You know me,

566
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 1: regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I

567
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: commit to a team, I commit to a city.

568
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.

569
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: And Evan Abrams just put a stat in the script

570
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 1: that made me like it even more. Road Division dogs

571
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 1: of three and a half, of three and a half

572
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 1: or more the last two years thirty five and sixteen

573
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 1: against the spread. Now we're in the foxhole. And you

574
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 1: know what we got in the foxhole right now, Simon.

575
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 2: And you know you love that trend.

576
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: I love it. I also love when I can do

577
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 1: a good wordplay right right there. Off the top of

578
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: my head, New England at Dallas was minus seven now

579
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: at six and a half. I bet it at six

580
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 1: and a half. This was the game. When I was

581
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: doing my research on Monday, I was worried because we

582
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: had talked about New England Sunday night. I was worried

583
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: on Tuesday. I was going to have to try to

584
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: convince you that Dallas was the right side. We both

585
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 1: kind of came to that conclusion. Are we still feeling that? No.

586
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 2: I just didn't know what to do with it. I

587
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 2: was hoping to get some clarity for some guys because

588
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 2: I got this power rat to write it where it's at, Like,

589
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 2: I think this is a good number by the books,

590
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 2: it's a fair number. Like there's a lot of questions

591
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 2: about New England, mainly Mac Jones and what this kid

592
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 2: is and Dallas. You know, I tried not to overreact

593
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 2: to it, but like Detroit tonight, say they do go

594
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 2: into Green Bay and win this game, I could I

595
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 2: mean I could see them, you know, being right there

596
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 2: with Dallas or being the number three team right now,

597
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,959
Speaker 2: because this is a game Detroit always loses. Tonight, like

598
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 2: this is a game they should lose. The public loves him,

599
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: everyone's coming in on them golf outdoors in this game.

600
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 2: They always lose in Lambeau. So yeah, like I'm looking

601
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,239
Speaker 2: this Dallas team and I don't know if they can

602
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 2: fix it in one week. Chat that's the fear, Like

603
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 2: they need a lot to fix on that offensive line

604
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 2: and they have one week to do it. And now

605
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 2: he was coming Belichick and Belichick's defense, Like you thought

606
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 2: Arizona's defense played really well against Dak. You're getting like

607
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 2: the master and he's got the guys now like this,

608
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: I can't get a round good. This Christian Gonzales kid

609
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: is and yeah, he's really good. He's really good. Like again,

610
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 2: I don't even care about the last game. I went

611
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: back and watched him against Tyreek Hill like that. If

612
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 2: you want to watch a rookie looking like an all pro,

613
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 2: go watch how he played against Tyreek Hill when the

614
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 2: Miami played the Patriots. So you know, Bill hasn't had

615
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 2: a shutdown corn since Revs. And if you go back

616
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 2: and watch all the old film about how he designed

617
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: that defense with Revs, he would literally bring a safety

618
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: up and not even have a safety over on Revs's side.

619
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 2: It was truly Revs was on one side by him

620
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 2: his entire self. And there's a couple of times in

621
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 2: that Miami game where he you know, he did this

622
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 2: umbrella defense. People kept talking about where it's when he

623
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 2: did a low drop safety. So he had a guy

624
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 2: in press really up close on Tyree to get him

625
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 2: off his route, and then he had a safety really

626
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 2: close low down that they weren't really respecting the deep shots.

627
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: He can do that same exact style here against this

628
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 2: Cowboys team that who is their deep threat, Like Ceedee

629
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: Lamb's not that guy. Gallup has not been that guy

630
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: since he's come back from the injury I Cooks missed

631
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 2: last week. He should be back this week. I just

632
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 2: I don't see the wins right now for Dallas on offense,

633
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 2: and then flip side New England Chad. My fear is

634
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to run the ball against this

635
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: Dallas team. I just that's what England wants to do.

636
00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: Like Zeke, I believe he had just as many or

637
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 2: maybe had more touches last week than Stevenson. It they're

638
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 2: kind of moving into a more two headed monster there

639
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 2: for New Englands running back position. So I would love

640
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 2: to get there with you on Dallas. I just can't.

641
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 2: I can't get there, can't get there at this number.

642
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 2: You're probably right, this probably the right time to back them.

643
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 2: I just it's such a big number here. I'm just

644
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 2: inclined to take the Patriots. It's just such a big

645
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 2: number for Dallas team that they're not fully healthy offensively

646
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 2: on the offensive line, and the books maybe they haven't

647
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 2: accounted for how much Digs was really worth this defense.

648
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 2: So we're learning a lot here about this Dallas team

649
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 2: and what they're going to be this upcoming season.

650
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: I'm counting on regression to the meme, and what I

651
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: mean by that is Dallas was two for five in

652
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:44,719
Speaker 1: the red zone against Arizona, and I would expect that

653
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: is something that can get cleaned up with better play

654
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: calling and looking for Jake Ferguson more in the red zone.

655
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: So I think Dallas in this spot. It's when Dak

656
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 1: has historically been the guy you can count on, right,

657
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: you're getting him as a favorite at home. So I

658
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 1: like Dak in this spot. I like Dak and Mike

659
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: McCarthy fixing their red zone issues. So I'm riding with

660
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 1: the Cowboys minus six and a half. If it's seven,

661
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: I'm not doing it. But it's a six and a half,

662
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm getting half a point.

663
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 2: Just a Scoch quick step before we move from my guy,

664
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 2: Evan Dallas allowing five point three yards per rush third

665
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 2: worse than NFL.

666
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: Right now, all right, next game, I'm gonna say it

667
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: right now, big balls better the week. We gotta take

668
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 1: the Jets Kansas City at the New York Jets. It's

669
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: at nine and a half. I believe it will hit

670
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: ten on Sunday. You might feel differently, but it hit

671
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 1: ten yesterday. For a second, I bet it, dude. This

672
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: is we missed this last week with the Cardinals, right

673
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: where nobody was backing the Cardinals as a huge home dog,

674
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: and we didn't even discuss it. This week we're discussing

675
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,479
Speaker 1: right now. Sixteen percent of the tickets are on the Jets.

676
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: Only one team since twenty fourteen has closed with fewer

677
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: than twenty percent of the tickets at home in a

678
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: night game Pats plus six and a half versus the

679
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: Bucks in twenty twenty one. That was Brady's return to

680
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: New England.

681
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 2: I'm telling you people, the group that's coming in heavy

682
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 2: on this Jets team, highly respected, smart guys, back to

683
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 2: smart money here. Hopefully we get the ten again. Like

684
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 2: me and you hit the ten. I've grabbed some nine

685
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,959
Speaker 2: and a halfs just in case it does drop even

686
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 2: more than a few books. But I'm with you. I

687
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 2: do think I'll get back to ten. I just the

688
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 2: guys I know and respect, they're going to keep hitting

689
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 2: the same time with touches ten. So I don't know

690
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: how they do it, Chad, I wish I could come

691
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 2: here and spin some people some bs. But if you're

692
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 2: just looking on paper, how they do this? How? Somehow

693
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 2: this Jets team can step up in the spot. If

694
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:59,919
Speaker 2: if you go back and watch that second half, he's

695
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 2: he kind of found something there against that Patriots team

696
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 2: after the first half, Like again, it wasn't wasn't incredible.

697
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 2: They didn't come back and win. He's still he's still

698
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 2: Zack Wilson, but he seemed like he was making throws

699
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 2: that he was more comfortable with going downfield, which is

700
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 2: all I'm looking for. Like this kid every time checks

701
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,760
Speaker 2: it down, Like that's why I hate betting on Zach Wilson.

702
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 2: He just checks it down every time. But in that

703
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:24,879
Speaker 2: second half against the Patriots, he was pushing the ball

704
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 2: downfield and looking for his guys so that in the defense.

705
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: It was fourth and ten and they had no choice.

706
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: He checked it down.

707
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: He checked it. I can't take it. It's brutal, but

708
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 2: we're really back in here as his defense and we

709
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:44,080
Speaker 2: gave the stat which you know, it didn't work out

710
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 2: against that Dallas team at the time, they were two

711
00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 2: and oh straight up in two and oh against the

712
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 2: spread when Zach Wilson was there, seven or point more underdog. Okay,

713
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 2: it didn't work against Dallas. That was a letdown spot.

714
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 2: After there's such an emotional win against the Bills and

715
00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: losing Rogers, this feels like the same as a Raiders

716
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 2: spot of like this is like their team against everybody,

717
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 2: like they got you know, we're not the only ones whispering.

718
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 2: You got to bring in Kirk Cousins like that. They're

719
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 2: hearing in the locker room. Everyone's talking about it, and

720
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,359
Speaker 2: the media is asking these guys about it. They all

721
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 2: know and this just feels like a stand for them.

722
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 2: And on a primetime game where like we just said,

723
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 2: everyone everyone you talk to is going to have this

724
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 2: tease to have the Chief's money line. And you know

725
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 2: that Patriots game against the Bucks, they opened that line

726
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 2: two and a half, they went to three and a half,

727
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 2: went to four and a half, went to five and

728
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 2: a half, then closed at six six and a half

729
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 2: and the Patriots missed a field goal at the very

730
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 2: end of the game to lose that game. So the

731
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 2: last time this exact scenario happened where everyone in the

732
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 2: world was saying, this is free money, Come and bet

733
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:49,799
Speaker 2: the Chiefs winning line, Come and bet the Chiefs on

734
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 2: the spread, Come put them in their teasers. It came

735
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 2: down to a field goal that decided all those things.

736
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 2: So we have to take this number. This is I

737
00:36:57,760 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: can't be gonna say this. This is probably end up

738
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 2: in our line around Robin and that would be so hilarious.

739
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 2: At the Jets start of the year two and two

740
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 2: was Zach Wilson their quarterback with a winner for the

741
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Bills. Football is so stupid, simon.

742
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: You'd like to speak in terms of nice houses and

743
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 1: nice cars. I speak in terms of the what I

744
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: call the K trifecta. I will be putting the four

745
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: to oh one K, the K one income, the five

746
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 1: twenty nine income, you name it, all of it going

747
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 1: on the Jets. I'm getting calls from bookmakers right now

748
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 1: begging me to stop hitting the Jets. The question is,

749
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: does this go into our contest at nine and a half?

750
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 2: Yeah? Okay, yeah, and well you got it. You change.

751
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,720
Speaker 2: You got to get a high yield savings account Okay,

752
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 2: five percent right now thanks to the US government. So

753
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 2: get on that, my guy.

754
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 1: No, I'm dude, believe me, I'm a totala. What you

755
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 1: got to look out for is the six percent CD

756
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 1: that is being offered certain banks right now because there

757
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 1: are tax implications.

758
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 2: That's true.

759
00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:11,760
Speaker 1: To get into that. We can get into that later,

760
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 1: all right, So right now, we really like Tennessee. We

761
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 1: really like the Bills, we really like the Jets. We've

762
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: got a couple of spots open in the contest. Pitt

763
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 1: at Houston. We talked about that a little bit. It

764
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 1: was at three and a half. Now it's to three.

765
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 1: I know what you're saying about t J. Watt against

766
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,760
Speaker 1: the the.

767
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,359
Speaker 2: Backup that cast.

768
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 1: But I do think that this Steelers run game, rushing

769
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 1: defense is terrible. I think their rushing offense is terrible.

770
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 1: I think that Mike Tomlin on the road as a

771
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 1: favorite is not the same as Mike Tomlin at home

772
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:54,239
Speaker 1: as an underdog. So in every respect, I still like

773
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 1: the Texans here.

774
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 2: We'll just stay away from it then because I don't

775
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 2: want to go against the boys, and I totally get

776
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 2: where they're coming from. That CJ is due to lay

777
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 2: a total fucking egg like this, That's just how it

778
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:10,720
Speaker 2: is with these rookies, and he is, you know, making

779
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:15,919
Speaker 2: great reads and having great plays. He has not seen

780
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 2: at TJ. Watt. Like, we can say all we want

781
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: about the Jaguars team. You know, that was more of

782
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 2: the Jaguars, right, just laying an egg, and I don't

783
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 2: know if Pittsburgh is gonna be in the same spot.

784
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 2: Like I trust the coaching as more in Pittsburgh. But yeah,

785
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 2: we'll just we'll stay away from that one because we

786
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 2: do we have a game I do want to talk

787
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 2: about that they've moved to a favorite. Maybe I can

788
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 2: convince you to move to.

789
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 1: All right, well, but before we get to that, let's

790
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 1: do let's do one more. Then we'll get to that.

791
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 1: Baltimore plus three at Cleveland. We were waiting to get

792
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: to the three. It got there. I thould like if

793
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 1: you I like Baltimore here, I bet Baltimore plus three.

794
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 1: But I'm playing the number, and I'm playing sort of

795
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 1: the history here that you want to play the underdog

796
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 1: at this number in a divisional game. I also could

797
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 1: understand if we want to back off it, like and Stuck.

798
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: You talked about this, You've talked about this. This Brown's

799
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 1: defense is historically great. So I have no concerns if

800
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 1: we want to walk away from this.

801
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, I have no idea what to do. This

802
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 2: is their first real test, this Cleveland defense. But on

803
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 2: the flip side, like Lamar, this is terrifying for him,

804
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 2: like he needs he needs his O line back. So

805
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 2: this is one of these where if you, if you

806
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 2: do want to take the Ravens taker like me and

807
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 2: Chatter doing, We're putting a little in the three and

808
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,400
Speaker 2: maybe once all these guys get cleared for Sunday and

809
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: I know who's me back and playing for, you know,

810
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 2: this banged up Ravens team, maybe I'll put some more

811
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,439
Speaker 2: money on it. But I just I have a hard

812
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 2: time getting there right now because everything I've seen from

813
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 2: this Cleveland defense, like they're they're incredible, and they match

814
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 2: up so well against what this Ravens team wants to

815
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 2: do offensively. So yeah, like there's so many great games

816
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 2: this week, and this is another one where it's like,

817
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,839
Speaker 2: not this decides the brown season, but if they win this,

818
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 2: Chad me and you are feeling like geniuses taking them

819
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:09,280
Speaker 2: to win this division.

820
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:11,359
Speaker 1: If they win this, all of a sudden, I get

821
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 1: to keep that ticket.

822
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:18,399
Speaker 2: Yeah. But seriously, though, it's like this is just this

823
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 2: is one of those games where we wouldn't be shocked

824
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 2: if what happened in Pittsburgh happens here. Like the Browns Brown,

825
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 2: It's what the Brown's do, and that's what sucks where

826
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 2: it's like me, Chad, we love the Browns. We have

827
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 2: to take the three with the Ravens because of the

828
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 2: history and because of Lamar as a dog. Historically he

829
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 2: is very profitable taking as a dog in this spot.

830
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,919
Speaker 2: So we'll hold our nose and take the three. Chad.

831
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 2: But another game, I just I just can't see us

832
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 2: having the contest Like it's just it's just hard for

833
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:45,359
Speaker 2: me to get there.

834
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,720
Speaker 1: All right, So the game right now, we're talking about

835
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 1: Tennessee Buffalo and the Jets that we really like for

836
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 1: the contest. It's much smaller grouping than we normally have.

837
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: I could see us wanting to get the Raiders in there.

838
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 1: What is the game that you want to convince me of?

839
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 2: And I just want to say real quick, Evan sent

840
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 2: us to us. Lamar eleven and two is ats as

841
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 2: a dog. So it's just play the numbers. People like

842
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,839
Speaker 2: me and Chad. We thought maybe we'll go against them

843
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 2: with Cincy in week two and Lamar made us eat

844
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 2: our lunch. So how can I get you on the Rams? Chad?

845
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:23,319
Speaker 1: Dude, dude, I love the Rams. I bet the last night.

846
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:28,359
Speaker 1: Here's the thing, here's the thing, uh in like What

847
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 1: worries me is that that trend of teams that go

848
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 1: from underdogs two favorites and so yeah, yeah, you know

849
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 1: right now, the like that's why I bet that, because

850
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 1: there's there's some discrepancies here, Like the Rams are plus one.

851
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: I got them at plus one and a half last.

852
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 2: Night, one and a half in the contest, though, I'm

853
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:50,880
Speaker 2: looking right now because apparently one and a half in

854
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,879
Speaker 2: the contest is our sweet spot with the Saints last week.

855
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, so if we could get the Rams at one

856
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 1: and a half in the contest, lock it in, then

857
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:02,319
Speaker 1: I would say, let's start. Yeah, are lines, but I

858
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 1: love the Rams, you know, stuck. Last night I was

859
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 1: listening to the Sunday six Pack. Raybond loves the Rams

860
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: at plus one and a half, and he had great

861
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:15,720
Speaker 1: reasons right now in the contest, the Rams half minus

862
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:16,080
Speaker 1: a half.

863
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 2: Mmm, Now, yeah, that's tough, so at least we don't

864
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:25,919
Speaker 2: have to rush to it then, But yeah, I would

865
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 2: have loved them in one and a half. It's just

866
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 2: it's a great spot for Rams team that there were

867
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 2: so many little bs things that happened that Bengals game,

868
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 2: like they had a touchdown taken away and they had

869
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 2: settle for a field goal from I think the three

870
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 2: or the four, and there's just a ut of things run.

871
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 1: Simon's biggest luck rankings differential this week are the Rams

872
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 1: and the Colts, with the Rams being the side do

873
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:48,320
Speaker 1: you want to bet?

874
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 2: And that makes sense because I felt like the Colts

875
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,800
Speaker 2: were the luckiest team in all football last week against

876
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 2: that Ravens team, Like every little thing that went right

877
00:43:56,680 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: went right their way. So yeah, yeah, like I said

878
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 2: on Tuesday, I love the Rams. I love them again here.

879
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 2: It's just they're going to just keep being undervalued by

880
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 2: the books, like they just the public does not respect

881
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 2: this team. They just don't respect Stafford. It's just the

882
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 2: way it is for this Rams team. So ye, if

883
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 2: they can win this game and then get Cooper Cup

884
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:21,239
Speaker 2: next week and be two and two, that they're a

885
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:23,360
Speaker 2: sneaky team, like we talked about all summer, they're a

886
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 2: sneaky team to win this division. Like the forty nine

887
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 2: ers are great. We saw the forty nine Ers did

888
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 2: struggle with this Rams team until that fourth quarter, right,

889
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:33,399
Speaker 2: I think it was a twenty three to twenty game

890
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 2: head into the fourth and then they got the touchdown

891
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,400
Speaker 2: and whatever happened. We got that late field goal give

892
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 2: us to cover with the Rams. But the Rams just

893
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 2: aren't as bad as the public received. So I love

894
00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 2: this spot for a letdown spot for the Colts, that

895
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 2: bounce back spot for a Rams team that I just

896
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 2: think they got unlucky against that Bengals team. So it

897
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 2: feels good to know the luck rankings are on this

898
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 2: one because we talk all the time. People can hate

899
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 2: on the luck rankings. It works, it's profitable. We've been

900
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 2: bending now for over two years and it's still turning

901
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 2: our profit. The books haven't caught up to it. So yeah,

902
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 2: we looked like idiots last week with the Broncos. That

903
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 2: was a one off, Like, don't don't overreact to that.

904
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 2: This is the biggest luck discrepancy. I already love the Rams.

905
00:45:14,120 --> 00:45:15,360
Speaker 2: How do we not take this one?

906
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 1: There are places right now where you can still get

907
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 1: the Rams as a short dog. The minus a half

908
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:28,279
Speaker 1: doesn't really bother me, so I'd be comfortable putting them in.

909
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 1: But you and I might have to have a conversation

910
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 1: after the show. Are we gonna lock in? Because there's

911
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,319
Speaker 1: four that we like right now, and I think the

912
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 1: lines on all of them are are iffy. That's fair,

913
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 1: so we will talk about that. Simon. I'm gonna ask

914
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 1: you a question right now. Can you name the fastest

915
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 1: growing ticketing app in the United States?

916
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 2: Game Time?

917
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 1: Game Time. I love game Time for two reasons. One,

918
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 1: they sponsor this show. Two, I actually use game Time

919
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 1: to buy tickets. They've got amazing last minute deals on

920
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 1: all sorts of tickets, including pro and college football games.

921
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 1: Speaking of which, I'm actually going to open game Time

922
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 1: from my house right here in Connecticut. I can go

923
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:10,839
Speaker 1: to the New York Jets game on Sunday night against

924
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,319
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs, and maybe Taylor Swift will be

925
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 1: in the house and I can get in for less

926
00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,240
Speaker 1: than one hundred and thirty bucks. Also, it's a beautiful

927
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 1: night here on the East Coast, I can go see

928
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:24,320
Speaker 1: the New York Mets for six bucks. It's amazing.

929
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:24,720
Speaker 2: Folks.

930
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:27,919
Speaker 1: You gotta use game Time, and no matter where you live,

931
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:30,439
Speaker 1: download the game Time app. Get out have some fun

932
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,240
Speaker 1: this week, Go sweat your bets live and in person,

933
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,479
Speaker 1: and you can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off

934
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: your first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the app

935
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 1: and enter code favorites for twenty dollars off last minute tickets,

936
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: lowest price guaranteed. All right, before we get to the

937
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 1: money line round Robin, reminder that the Week four contest

938
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:58,439
Speaker 1: tiebreaker is New York Giants total penalty yards on Monday Night.

939
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 1: Football predictive analyst Billy Ward writes a tiebreaker strategy article

940
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 1: every week, and a link to that article can be

941
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 1: found in this episode's description. Do you want a leg

942
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,560
Speaker 1: up in the contest? Also, some listeners have reached out

943
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 1: regarding our NFC West preview episode from the summer. Does

944
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:21,439
Speaker 1: Simons still think the Seahawks have arguably the best wide

945
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 1: receiver trio in NFL history.

946
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 2: Through three weeks? I would say no, that hasn't lived

947
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:30,320
Speaker 2: up to the hype yet this point.

948
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: He's walking it back. All right, let's do our money

949
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 1: line under walk back, Robin parlay.

950
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 2: My dog blocks.

951
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 1: Your dog, Your dog blocks mo doll. Here's my suggestions.

952
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 1: Are you ready? Hell Y Ravens, Yes, Titans, Yes, Houston, Houston.

953
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 2: I was hes podcast.

954
00:47:55,440 --> 00:48:00,319
Speaker 1: I was hesitating there on the Dolphins, and I would

955
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:01,360
Speaker 1: say Houston for sure.

956
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:05,040
Speaker 2: Raiders, these are little dogs. Let's get a big dog

957
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 2: in there. You want to go Vegas? Or the Jets.

958
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 1: I said, I said, Vegas, Vegas.

959
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 2: All right, that's four bears. Uh No, they fucking suck.

960
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 2: They're not gonna win. I got no faith. You guys

961
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 2: don't know. You guys don't even know how to win.

962
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 1: Alright, Bucks, Bucks, Yeah, I.

963
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 2: Don't hate that. Yeah, Bucks, I can get. Yeah, I

964
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 2: rather do I rather do the Bucks and the Bears, all.

965
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 1: Right, Bucks, Houston, Ravens, Titans, LVY.

966
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:34,440
Speaker 2: That is our damn. That is ugly.

967
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 1: That is ugly. That is ugly. Uh, that is our

968
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 1: money line, Underdog round Robin Simon. Make Little Caesars, which

969
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 1: is the official pizza sponsor of the NFL. Part of

970
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 1: your game day, Simon, have you ever had a problem

971
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 1: that pizza did not fix?

972
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 2: Never, Chad, never ever ever.

973
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:59,799
Speaker 1: Order online during our Pizza Pizza pregame one hour before

974
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 1: a games and get ready for some football and fine,

975
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:06,320
Speaker 1: choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick the toppings

976
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 1: Ukravee Simon. How soon after waking up is it appropriate

977
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:16,800
Speaker 1: to eat pizza? A second, it's a trick question. It's

978
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 1: never inappropriate to eat pizza. Either way, you win. And

979
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 1: speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or our

980
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:27,920
Speaker 1: in store pizza portal pickup, So grab some friends and

981
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 1: enjoy a few slices during the tastiest hour before kickoff.

982
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 1: As a reminder for the second time, I'm reminding people

983
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of The Favorites live on

984
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:40,840
Speaker 1: YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. So if you're watching

985
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like. Subscribe

986
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 1: to the Action Network YouTube page. Also catch us in

987
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 1: the Action Network app. It's time for Survivors the Survivor

988
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 1: Pool pick of the week.

989
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,600
Speaker 2: We got lucky last week. We just went chalk took

990
00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, never a doubt. Let's do the same this week.

991
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 2: Let everyone else sweat it out. I try to forgeret

992
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:13,399
Speaker 2: who they're going to take. Let's just take the forty

993
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 2: nine ers. Yeah, there's no way they lose Arizona, and

994
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:18,759
Speaker 2: this feels like their easiest game of the season at

995
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:22,839
Speaker 2: home against the Cardinals after the Cardinals just won. Give

996
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 2: it to me.

997
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 1: Listen, I'm just waiting for this line to dip under

998
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 1: under fourteen so I can take it at thirteen and

999
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:28,360
Speaker 1: a half.

1000
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 2: That's fair. So I know people like to hear a

1001
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 2: number two. I'd go Eagles we gave that hurt stat like,

1002
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 2: I keep saving the Eagles because I really want to

1003
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:38,760
Speaker 2: use them when I have to, But for some reason,

1004
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 2: you already took the forty nine ers. Go ahead and

1005
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:43,800
Speaker 2: use the Eagles, but the forty nine ers have to

1006
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 2: be the play This week, as a.

1007
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 1: Reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by Bet three

1008
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 1: six five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. They

1009
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,560
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1010
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1011
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Speaker 1: to the ones that fly under the radar. Set for

1012
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1013
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1014
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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older. Must

1017
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:21,399
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1018
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1019
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1021
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Speaker 1: off in Iowa, terms and conditions apply before we get

1022
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:39,400
Speaker 1: out of here. Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams,

1023
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 1: the engine behind the stats and the nuggets you hear

1024
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:43,920
Speaker 1: on the show and across our network, you get the

1025
00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 1: last word. Evan, what is the last word?

1026
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,879
Speaker 3: So? I felt like I was way too mean last week,

1027
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 3: So these are going to be a little bit more

1028
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 3: in your favor, feel like, and I've been doing it

1029
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 3: throughout the show. I was a little bit negative, so

1030
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 3: it's time to get a little positive. But we have

1031
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 3: to talk about the Dolphins. Going into this. Understand that,

1032
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:04,120
Speaker 3: like most league wide trends, when you talk about the

1033
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:05,799
Speaker 3: Dolphins are going to tell you that they can't keep

1034
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 3: this up.

1035
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:07,440
Speaker 2: So this is kind of the theme.

1036
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 3: So Dolphins are the twelfth team in the last twenty

1037
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,360
Speaker 3: years to be three oh straight up and against the

1038
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,879
Speaker 3: spread and be listed as an underdog in their fourth game.

1039
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 3: Those previous eleven teams went two to nine straight up

1040
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 3: and three and eight against the spread in that next game,

1041
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:23,880
Speaker 3: So basically telling you coming back to the mean, and

1042
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:26,720
Speaker 3: that tells you a little bit more towards this next one.

1043
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 3: So this is pretty crazy. The Dolphins are averaging an

1044
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 3: absurd eight point four yards per play this year. That

1045
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:36,680
Speaker 3: is the most through three games all time, second most

1046
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:39,160
Speaker 3: the Greatest Show on Turf in two thousand and eight

1047
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:41,560
Speaker 3: point one. So that's kind of where we are. And

1048
00:52:41,640 --> 00:52:46,040
Speaker 3: usually these early high power offenses come back to reality.

1049
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 3: Teams to average six yards per play or more going

1050
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:54,359
Speaker 3: into their fourth game thirty five, fifty six and one

1051
00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 3: thirty eight percent since twenty nineteen, so recently we've seen

1052
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:00,960
Speaker 3: more offense. Obviously this comes into play. So those are

1053
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 3: your two dolphin stats that basically hopes that the Bills

1054
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 3: cover the game. And I have the money line, so

1055
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:09,320
Speaker 3: let's go Bills next. This is just a fun one

1056
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 3: and this probably doesn't have a ton of you know,

1057
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:14,480
Speaker 3: backup to it, but the Steelers are coming off of

1058
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 3: road game in Vegas. Teams after playing the Raiders on

1059
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:19,920
Speaker 3: the road since they moved to Las Vegas are just

1060
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 3: nine and seventeen against the spread. That's a third worst

1061
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 3: mark of any team in the NFL. And when that

1062
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 3: team goes from Vegas to another road game, one in

1063
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 3: seven against the spread. So not great success but probably

1064
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 3: more just a fun trend.

1065
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 1: And that those Texans. Baby, Yeah, I was.

1066
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 3: Gonna say this is a Texans podcast Chad, so I

1067
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 3: had to go there. And then lastly, I've said this

1068
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,839
Speaker 3: one before, but it's worth repeating. Teams to score three

1069
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 3: points or less the previous week sixty five forty two

1070
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:51,399
Speaker 3: and fours. That's sixty percent since twenty fifteen when those

1071
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 3: are when they are dogs. In the next week, that

1072
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 3: goes to forty four to twenty four and two, sixty

1073
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 3: five percent. That is the Titans, that is the Commanders.

1074
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:02,839
Speaker 3: So this is, you know, going with the podcast this week,

1075
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:03,719
Speaker 3: just trying to help out.

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00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 1: You're a class act, Evan. You know what, I don't

1077
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 1: care what Matt Mitchell says about you. I'm glad you're

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00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 1: doing this segment, and I'm glad you're contributing possible to recap,

1079
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 1: to recap our Foxhole, Las Vegas plus five and a half,

1080
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 1: our Big Balls Bet of the Week, New Jersey, New

1081
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 1: York Jets plus nine and a half, Our exec Decision

1082
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:25,360
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus two and a half. Simon says with Buffalo

1083
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:28,240
Speaker 1: minus two and a half, our money Line Round Robin

1084
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 1: Underdog Parlay, Houston, Baltimore, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Tampa Bay. Before

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00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:39,120
Speaker 1: we sign off, reminder, Simon and I will be back

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00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 1: with our Week four recap episode live on AMP and

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00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page and in the Action

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00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:49,799
Speaker 1: Network app this Sunday and every Sunday at seven point

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00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever

1090
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 1: you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe, WES five stars,

1091
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:02,959
Speaker 1: say whatever you want feedback is a gift for Simon Hunter,

1092
00:55:03,080 --> 00:55:07,960
Speaker 1: I Am, Chad Noman and two Next week Love You.

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00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1094
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:23,920
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler