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Speaker 1: What two three brights down in the middle of the

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Speaker 1: family time. He loves football down in the one yard line.

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Speaker 1: How about that? That is the ultimate kabash Man.

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Speaker 2: We are underway. Hello everyone, welcome back to another episode

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Speaker 2: of the Action Network NFL podcast. It is the Friday

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Speaker 2: show of Pro Bowl Week. On Wednesday, we recapped the

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Speaker 2: two great conference championship games. We looked ahead to the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl and previewed all the different in game matchups,

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Speaker 2: and we discussed the twenty nineteen offseason team needs in

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Speaker 2: the upcoming NFL Draft. But today we are breaking down

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Speaker 2: the grandest of exhibition games, the twenty eighteen nineteen NFL

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Speaker 2: Pro Bowl. We will be looking at the game from

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Speaker 2: primarily a daily fantasy perspective, but we also might talk

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Speaker 2: a little bit about betting on the game. And Joining

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Speaker 2: me once again is Ianhart. It's the director of the

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Speaker 2: Fantasy Labs NFL platform and an Action Network analyst. You

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Speaker 2: can follow him in the Action Network app at Iheartitz.

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Speaker 2: You can also use the app to get real time

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Speaker 2: NFL odds and track your bets for free.

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Speaker 3: Ian, how's it going going, good man?

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Speaker 4: You said it, I got to talk about this exhibition

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Speaker 4: You coined a phrase in your article on it last year.

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Speaker 4: It's an exhibition of a sport resembling football, which I

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Speaker 4: think is a pretty pretty good way to describe the

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Speaker 4: Pro Bowl.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, man, it's it is an interesting affair. Ian good news.

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Speaker 2: Once again we have sponsors for the show, the Live

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Speaker 2: reads from last episode. We're such a rousing success at

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Speaker 2: Audible and back back well then couldn't help but sponsor

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Speaker 2: us again, for which we are very grateful. So everyone

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Speaker 2: look forward to hearing me talk about those wonderful companies

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Speaker 2: in just a little bit. But first, let's talk about football,

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Speaker 2: if indeed that is what you can call the Pro Bowl.

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Speaker 2: While you're listening to the podcast, please rate and review

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Speaker 2: the Action Network NFL podcast on iTunes, Subscribe, unsubscribe, and resubscribe,

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Speaker 2: and for all of our content, go to the Action

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Speaker 2: Network in Fantasy Labs in let's get into it. The

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Speaker 2: Pro Bowl DraftKings and FanDuel didn't even release salaries for

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Speaker 2: this event until Wednesday night, and that is because the

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Speaker 2: rosters for the Pro Bowl aren't really finally set until

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Speaker 2: just like a few days before the event. So who

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Speaker 2: is even playing in this game? Let's just kind of

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Speaker 2: start there.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we Actually there's multiple guys on the kind of

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Speaker 4: Fandel Pricing that have sense, you know, are not no

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Speaker 4: longer in the game, but it seems like DraftKings at

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Speaker 4: least has a good sense of who's in it right now.

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Speaker 3: On the AFC side of things, we're looking at Mahomes.

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Speaker 4: So I guess, first of all, with the rosters and

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Speaker 4: the Pro Bowl, wide receiver and tight end are the

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Speaker 4: two positions where you can expect the rotations to somewhat

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Speaker 4: resemble what we see in a real football game because

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Speaker 4: there's only four to five wide receivers on each team,

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Speaker 4: there's only two tight ends on each team, and all

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Speaker 4: those guys pretty much have to be on the field,

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Speaker 4: you know, three wide receivers and one tight end every

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Speaker 4: single play. So even if you want to kind of

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Speaker 4: take out, you know, a Tyree Kill type player early,

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Speaker 4: it's it's putting a lot of pressure on your remaining three.

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Speaker 3: To four receivers.

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Speaker 4: So the positions, I think we'll see more guys go

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Speaker 4: in and out or a quarterback and running back specifically,

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Speaker 4: it looks like Patrick Mahomes is going to start for

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Speaker 4: the AFC, Russell Wilson's going to start for the NFC.

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Speaker 3: And then you know, we've got our fullbacks, two in

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Speaker 3: the running back group.

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Speaker 4: But I think the two guys in the running back

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Speaker 4: group that I think are most exciting are Tarik Con

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Speaker 4: and Alvin Kamara just because they have had so much

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Speaker 4: experience as a receiver this year.

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Speaker 3: But other than that, man, it's just kind of I

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Speaker 3: feel like.

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Speaker 4: Your basic set of Pro Bowl Stars, and then you

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Speaker 4: know your random fifth or sixth best player of the

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Speaker 4: position that's now in there because three other guys have

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Speaker 4: dropped out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so let's talk a little bit about the rules,

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Speaker 2: kind of the history of the game, a little bit

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Speaker 2: some of the randomness that's associated with this game. So

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Speaker 2: to give a sense of how random this event is,

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Speaker 2: last year, Antonio Brown got six targets and he had

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Speaker 2: only one reception. Oh wait, that seems kind of normal.

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Speaker 2: And so like in twenty seventeen, a full back led

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Speaker 2: all of the backs in fantasy scoring with fifty one

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Speaker 2: yards and he had just three carries in five receptions.

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Speaker 2: In twenty sixteen, the Jerry Rice quarterbacks. And remember this

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Speaker 2: was back when Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin and other

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Speaker 2: players were like just like fantasy style picking these rosters.

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Speaker 2: The Rice quarterbacks combined to throw six interceptions. In twenty fifteen,

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Speaker 2: John Coon led the carter team with thirty one yards rushing.

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Speaker 2: In twenty fourteen, Alfred Morris led the Sanders squad with

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Speaker 2: four receptions. Alfred Morris never catches the ball, and he

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Speaker 2: had four receptions in that game. In twenty thirteen, Leon Washington,

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Speaker 2: who was on the team as the return specialist, he

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Speaker 2: led the game with five carries, and then in twenty twelve,

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Speaker 2: Drew Brees attempted an extra point. Like this is such

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Speaker 2: a random event, it's hard to think of this as

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Speaker 2: an actual game, and so you probably shouldn't even think

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Speaker 2: of it the way that you do most football games

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Speaker 2: through the DFS perspective, it's much more random. But to

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Speaker 2: talk about the rules and Ian you mentioned this earlier specifically,

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Speaker 2: one of the biggest edges that people can have in

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Speaker 2: this is knowing the rules and knowing specifically that tight

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Speaker 2: ends have to be on the field. There has to

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Speaker 2: be at least one tight end on the field when

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Speaker 2: your offense has the ball, so that means they can't

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Speaker 2: go four wide. They always have to have a tight

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Speaker 2: end on the field, maybe sometimes even two tight ends

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Speaker 2: on the field. At a time, So there is a

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Speaker 2: really big edge to rostering tight ends in this event. Ian,

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Speaker 2: there are some other more minute rules. Why don't you

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Speaker 2: kind of run through some of those.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's some interesting changes with the timeouts.

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Speaker 4: You know, each team has two timeouts per quarter, and

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Speaker 4: the unused timeouts in the first and third carry over to.

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Speaker 3: The second and fourth. Different other things.

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Speaker 4: In two minute warning, each quarter has one clock stops

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Speaker 4: the offense is not game at least one yard on

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Speaker 4: a play incomplete passes. You know, they actually don't stop

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Speaker 4: the clock unless we're in the final two minutes of play.

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Speaker 4: Basically a bunch of things just to try to kind

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Speaker 4: of speed up the pace of play a little bit

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Speaker 4: and hope hopefully makes for some higher scoring. But the

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Speaker 4: interesting one that goes hand in hand with what you're

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Speaker 4: saying about tight ends is the restrictions that are put.

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Speaker 3: On the defenses.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, pretty much still stuck like five years ago, Like

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Speaker 4: they have not updated these rules, and they forced defenses

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Speaker 4: to stay in a four to three at all times

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Speaker 4: and they can't go in nickel or dime coverage.

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Speaker 3: And I guarantee you know when they made.

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Speaker 4: These rules, four to three was still the main defense

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Speaker 4: that right playing in fifty percent of step. But now

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Speaker 4: like that nickel cornerback is more of a starter than

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Speaker 4: the third linebacker is on almost any team in the league.

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Speaker 4: So defenses cannot again cannot use nickel or dime subpackages.

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Speaker 4: No more than four defensive backs can behind the field

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Speaker 4: out of time. So you already know your best coverage

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Speaker 4: safety is going to have to go and deal with

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Speaker 4: the number three receiver, and that means your tight end

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Speaker 4: is going to be dealing with slower linebackers for most

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Speaker 4: of the game. So just a really big advantage in

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Speaker 4: the passing game in general, which makes sense. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I know these guys are trying to bang heads too

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Speaker 4: hard to line scrimmage and run the ball all games,

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Speaker 4: so but yeah, man, it's that sticking in a four

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Speaker 4: to three defense and needing the tight end to be

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Speaker 4: on the field at all times, I think are the

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Speaker 4: two biggest keys. And the last thing, which really just

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Speaker 4: shows how absurdain this whole game is, is the goalpost

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Speaker 4: actually squeezed down to fourteen feet for higher points and

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Speaker 4: so it makes a life for kickers pretty freaking hard

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Speaker 4: in this game. And if you sorry, if you're a

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Speaker 4: big time kicker DFS fan, but might be the time

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Speaker 4: of the year to not play.

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Speaker 2: No, certainly, and so not only with the defensive acts.

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Speaker 2: They have to have four on the field, no more

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Speaker 2: than four, but they have to play in particular coverages.

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Speaker 2: They are now allowed to play in Cover two or press,

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Speaker 2: but before the twenty fourteen game, they were allowed to

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Speaker 2: use only man coverage. But you know, as you mentioned

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Speaker 2: with with tight ends, it really is interesting because it

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Speaker 2: means that they are going to get to face either

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Speaker 2: a linebacker, and think of these linebackers, like I think

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Speaker 2: most linebackers get to the Pro Bowl because they make

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Speaker 2: a lot of tackles, not because they are very good

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Speaker 2: in pass coverage, you know what I mean. So like

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Speaker 2: there can be guys who are all around good at both,

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Speaker 2: but these are guys who are more of like the

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Speaker 2: middle linebacker, like off ball type of run defender, not

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Speaker 2: necessarily coverage guys. So your titands get to face either

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Speaker 2: that or they face the other safety, which means there's

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Speaker 2: no safety help for any of the receivers. So it's

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Speaker 2: it's totally like this perfect. All you have to do

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Speaker 2: basically is beat your man, and if you do that,

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Speaker 2: you have a really decent chance of outrunning everyone to

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Speaker 2: score a touchdown. So yeah, tight end is a very

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Speaker 2: advantageous position for this game. Let's talk a little bit

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Speaker 2: about some of the in game trends that we have found,

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Speaker 2: specifically have to do with scoring.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, two big things I found just from overall game

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Speaker 4: perspective is the scoring has been down in recent years.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we saw at least fifty points scored in

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Speaker 4: twelve thirteen games from two thousand and twenty twelve. In

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Speaker 4: recent history, I mean they've combined for fear than fifty

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Speaker 4: points in three of the last five matchups. So you know,

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Speaker 4: we've actually seen these you know, twenty one to twenty

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Speaker 4: four ballgames and finishes like that, which it does make

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Speaker 4: sense because even though there are those defensive restrictions, I mean,

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Speaker 4: these offenses only had a week to practice together, and

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Speaker 4: you know, especially in this game, we've got Anthony lenn

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Speaker 4: and Jason Garret as the coach.

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Speaker 3: Is I don't know if we should expect, you know.

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Speaker 4: The most amazing schemes we'd ever seen that really take

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Speaker 4: advantage of this. So just something to keep in mind,

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Speaker 4: especially you know, with those defenses in DFS. Just being

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Speaker 4: contrarian and you know, potentially taking a stab at that

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Speaker 4: under as well.

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Speaker 3: And then the other big thing which we've kind of

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Speaker 3: hinted out.

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Speaker 4: Already, but the Pro Bowl is a passing game like

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Speaker 4: ten times more so than the NFL is a passing game.

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Speaker 4: At this point, ninety nine players over his last five

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Speaker 4: years have been targeted in the Pro Bowl, and they

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Speaker 4: averaged four point three targets per game. In our fifty

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Speaker 4: five player sample of rushers only averaged three point four

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Speaker 4: rush attemps per game. So you usually any given week

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Speaker 4: it's almost a you know, certainty that your running backs

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Speaker 4: are going to get more touches than your receivers and

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Speaker 4: tight ends. But that's it is really not the case

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Speaker 4: in the Pro Bowl, and that hasn't been the case

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Speaker 4: for the last five years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And the trends that you just mentioned, they're kind

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Speaker 2: of in terms of usage for the passing game versus

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Speaker 2: the running game. It makes sense from a variety of perspectives.

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Speaker 2: I mean, offensive lines, like it's easier for them, I think,

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Speaker 2: to pass block if you just have random guys next

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Speaker 2: to each other, as opposed to run blocking, because like

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Speaker 2: that has to be pretty coordinated. Just in terms of

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Speaker 2: the offensive line in relation to each other, and then

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Speaker 2: the running back behind the offensive line. I think in general,

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Speaker 2: coaches just try to avoid that. They don't want to

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Speaker 2: have to sort of deal with getting all the offensive

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Speaker 2: linemen on the same page. And then when we've seen

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Speaker 2: runners in the Pro Bowl, they really haven't historically been

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Speaker 2: even that efficient, So the volume is down for them

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Speaker 2: and the efficiency is down. And to put some numbers

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Speaker 2: to this, for the last seven years, so since two

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Speaker 2: thousand and eleven, if you look at the total number

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Speaker 2: of DraftKings point available for each team, the average has

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Speaker 2: been twenty four point eight DraftKings points for the total

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Speaker 2: backfield per team, which is a pretty small amount, especially

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Speaker 2: when you're considering that you're breaking that pretty evenly between

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Speaker 2: three different guys. And here's the big thing about half

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Speaker 2: of that production actually, let me rephrase that more than

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Speaker 2: half of the production. Sixty three percent of that production

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Speaker 2: has come through the passing game, which is just a

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Speaker 2: huge amount. So I think when you are targeting running

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Speaker 2: backs in this game, you probably want to go with

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Speaker 2: the guys who are the pass catchers, which I think

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Speaker 2: filters back into the two guys you highlighted earlier, Kamara

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Speaker 2: and Cohen, and then kind of from a more macro perspective,

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Speaker 2: you are splitting all of that work between three guys

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Speaker 2: only one of them is going to be on the

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Speaker 2: field at a time, Whereas at wide receiver, you're splitting

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Speaker 2: all of the production that the wide receivers get between

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Speaker 2: four guys and at least two of them are going

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Speaker 2: to be on the field at any given time, and

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Speaker 2: most of the time you're going to have three out there.

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Speaker 2: So just kind of like from a percentage perspective, it

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Speaker 2: makes much more sense to invest in the passing game. Okay, Ian,

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Speaker 2: everything you just said was fascinating. What I just said

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Speaker 2: was fascinating, But not nearly as fascinating is what I'm

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Speaker 2: going to say for the next minute or so, because

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Speaker 2: I'm going to talk about Audible, or as I like

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Speaker 2: what was your favorite book as a child?

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Speaker 3: Oh, put me on the spot. I'm going with holes.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I don't really care. I just asked you that

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Speaker 2: question so that I could say that my favorite book

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Speaker 2: as a child was The Adventures of Tom Sawyer. If

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Speaker 2: you're any thing like me, you're probably interested in recapturing

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Speaker 2: which two guys are breaking down the Pro Bowl. But

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Speaker 2: right now you can get the Adventures of Tom Sawyer

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Speaker 2: think is pretty awesome that he is narrating that. As

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Speaker 2: O N to five hundred, five hundred ian. I normally

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Speaker 2: ask you to rate my live reads, but I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to for that one. I know it was a

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Speaker 2: solid ten. Okay, okay, all right, let's talk about some

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Speaker 2: of these these players in a little more detail. Let's

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Speaker 2: start with the quarterbacks. Any trends that you have noticed

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Speaker 2: with these guys.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so it seems like with these quarterbacks, you know,

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Speaker 4: each team is usually working with three, that's what we

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Speaker 4: have this year, and the starter, the starter is the

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Speaker 4: one that kind of gets the shortest end of the

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Speaker 4: stick because they go in. Sometimes they'll play two three

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Speaker 4: series and they're gone, but kind of their best case

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Speaker 4: is only one quarter so and you know, once they're

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Speaker 4: quarterbacks out of the game, you're you're not going back in.

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Speaker 4: So I think you're better off looking at these number

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Speaker 4: two and number three quarterbacks and that's shown up. But

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Speaker 4: these guys do I mean in terms of trying to

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Speaker 4: find opportunities in the Pro Bowl, the quarterbacks position as

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Speaker 4: a whole, you know.

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Speaker 3: Behind the receiver.

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Speaker 4: I think over all the if you just look at

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Speaker 4: pass attempts, I mean, they have the most opportunities in

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Speaker 4: these games. And accordingly, twenty one to thirty quarterbacks since

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Speaker 4: twenty fourteen have thrown for at least one touchdown in

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Speaker 4: the Pro Bowl. I mean, that's something in a game

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Speaker 4: where almost nothing is given, and you know, we do

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Speaker 4: need to kind of rely on this passing production because

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Speaker 4: much like in the running backs, we're not getting anything

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Speaker 4: on the ground from from the quarterback position as well,

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Speaker 4: even dual threats. And we've had Tyrod Taylor here, he

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Speaker 4: has the five year record for most rushing yards in

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Speaker 4: the game. That's only fifteen. Cam Newton's the only quarterback

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Speaker 4: with a rushing touchdown over this time. Matt There's been

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Speaker 4: three total rushing touchdowns the last five Pro Bowls.

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Speaker 3: It's insane. Even when they're.

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Speaker 5: Getting down, even they're getting down in the three yard line,

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Speaker 5: the offensive line wants to try to go shove all

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Speaker 5: the defense line, then's on another they're throwing a fade

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Speaker 5: the freaking you know, Jujus Stuss shoots or all these

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Speaker 5: ballers on the outside.

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Speaker 4: So only Matthew Stafford in twenty fifteen even cleared two

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Speaker 4: hundred passing yards. So I mean again, they're rotating a

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Speaker 4: lot of the ceilings. The individual ceilings for the quarterbacks

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Speaker 4: aren't super high, but the passing floor is what you

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Speaker 4: want to go to go for here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, as you mentioned, the dual threat quarterbacks really haven't

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Speaker 2: done much, and in part I think it makes sense,

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Speaker 2: like you don't have these these guys wanting to get

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Speaker 2: hit by uh you know, like Pro Bowl Pro bowlers

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Speaker 2: who are just looking for a reason to smash them,

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Speaker 2: you know what I mean.

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Speaker 4: I thought the defenders don't want to hit either. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's a mutual understanding. And you're gonna see a lot

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Speaker 4: of pass plays where the linemen basically just play patty

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Speaker 4: kick a lot of scrimmage because what are they even

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Speaker 4: doing here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think there could be a real edge

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Speaker 2: knowing that the dual threat quarterbacks, like where a lot

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Speaker 2: of their value comes from in fantasy is the ability

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Speaker 2: to produce with their legs. Those guys just historically have

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Speaker 2: not produced in the Pro Bowl. No rushing attempts, very

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Speaker 2: little rushing yardage, no rushing touchdowns. So someone like Deshaun Watson,

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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, Trubisky, Dak Prescott, I think people might overvalue

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Speaker 2: their dual threat ability. So I think there would be,

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Speaker 2: you know, potential upside in going with one of the

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Speaker 2: other guys. But as you mentioned, the starters in the

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Speaker 2: Pro Bowl historically have been the guys who've been the

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Speaker 2: least productive. The number two in the number three quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: they normally come in and they play more series. And

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Speaker 2: also like at the end of the game is when

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Speaker 2: you start to see more of the action pick up.

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Speaker 2: So I do think that you want to target the

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Speaker 2: second and the third quarterbacks if possible. Ian running backs.

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Speaker 2: What do you see here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we've already been talking about this is the position

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Speaker 4: to kind of avoid in general for dfs.

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Speaker 3: I mean only mark Ingram and he got.

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Speaker 4: To seventy two yards, has cleared fifty yards rushing among everybody,

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Speaker 4: you know, quarterbacks, running backs, anyone's got a rushing town.

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Speaker 4: Not only Mark's gotten past the fifty yard mark over

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Speaker 4: these past five years and he's also the only guy

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Speaker 4: that's gotten double digit rushing attempts there. Yea, all these

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Speaker 4: running backs they're getting three four carries at the most.

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Speaker 4: And I mean, I want, I want to be a

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Speaker 4: shock to see Kyle Uschek and the lead the NFC

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Speaker 4: in rushing towns and rushing yard It's just Zigar Elliott

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Speaker 4: sequon market. They're not gonna be asked to poundline scrimmage,

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Speaker 4: but they had been asked to contribute as receivers. And

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Speaker 4: you know, you had a nice point earlier about sixty

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Speaker 4: two percent of their production has come through the passing game.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, running backs last five years have eight hundred

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Speaker 4: and twenty one receiving yards four receiving touchdowns. That's compared

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Speaker 4: to seven one hundred and twenty yards on the ground

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Speaker 4: and only two touchdowns. I mean, you add in the

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Speaker 4: whole point per reception and you're not getting a point

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Speaker 4: per carry. And it's just a no brainer to kind

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Speaker 4: of go off from these receiving guys. And the reason

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Speaker 4: earlier I said Cohen and Kamara is look, Kamar has

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Speaker 4: spent twenty five point eight percent of the snaps in

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Speaker 4: the slot or as a wide receiver, Cohen's are all

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Speaker 4: the way at thirty four percent. The only other guy

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Speaker 4: that's even above fifteen percent is used Check the fullback, and.

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Speaker 2: He was at sixteen.

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Speaker 4: So these guys did, legit spend like a quarter of

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Speaker 4: their time playing as a wide receiver during the season. So,

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Speaker 4: you know, when we don't have that many receivers to

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Speaker 4: begin with on the roster, wouldn't be shocked to see

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Speaker 4: those running backs get a lot more snaps.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: One thing that is interesting about the fullbacks. Even though

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Speaker 2: we don't see many rushing touchdowns at all in this game,

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Speaker 2: at chunk of the rushing touchdowns we have seen have

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Speaker 2: gone to the fullbacks, which, like I think is almost

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Speaker 2: sort of like the coach's way of like, Okay, these guys,

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Speaker 2: they get no praise during the season. They're here, let's

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Speaker 2: throw them a bone and see if they can get

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Speaker 2: you know, like a Pro Bowl touchdown, which is like,

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Speaker 2: that's great, but like that sucks for all of the other,

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Speaker 2: like Legit running backs. Since twenty and eleven, we have

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Speaker 2: had five rushing touchdowns go to running backs. Vonte Leach

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Speaker 2: got one of those. One of the others went to

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Speaker 2: another running back. I'm looking for it. Here, but can't

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Speaker 2: find it easily in the list. Oh, Jerome Felton, Right, So,

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Speaker 2: like it's just a it's a situation where the fullbacks

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Speaker 2: they take like proportionally way more of the rushing production

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Speaker 2: than they do during the season. But it's not as

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Speaker 2: if you can really play those guys either, because like

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Speaker 2: they're fullbacks, they're not really getting much production. The one

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Speaker 2: guy might be used check because he does actually produce

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Speaker 2: as a receiver, But yeah, for running, I think there's

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Speaker 2: a lot worse that you could do than basically do

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Speaker 2: almost like a full fade of the position, because it's

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Speaker 2: I think it's hard to predict which one of these

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Speaker 2: guys really has the potential to go off as a

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00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,680
Speaker 2: receiver or as a runner, or maybe get that rushing touchdown.

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Speaker 2: These guys also don't really get many receiving touchdowns either,

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Speaker 2: just five as a total cohort in the last seven years.

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Speaker 2: I think people will probably want to play running backs,

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Speaker 2: but I think it's probably best just to avoid the position.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about the wide receivers?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, one last thing on the running backs as well.

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Speaker 4: It's not just fullbacks you're gonna see stealing carries. I

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Speaker 4: mean Richard Sherman had like a carry go for minus

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Speaker 4: twenty five. Yeah, yeah, Travis Frederick got to carry the

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Speaker 4: Cowboys center like he got to carry a couple of

435
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,360
Speaker 4: years ago. So there's gonna be like three or four

436
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 4: annoying players. We're just gonna ask yourself why on Earth

437
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 4: by player running backs? So just but yeah, all right,

438
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 4: back to wide receivers.

439
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 3: This is the thing.

440
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 4: I mean, we're talking like, yeah, okay, Kamara and a

441
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 4: couple of these running backs have some receiving. But at

442
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 4: that point, why not just play the wide receivers and

443
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,359
Speaker 4: tight ends that we know have the higher target floor.

444
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,440
Speaker 4: I mean, over the years, yes, running backs have produced

445
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 4: a little more in the passing game, but it's still

446
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:12,160
Speaker 4: nothing close to the tight ends and wide receivers overall.

447
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 4: You know, we're seeing your average Pro Bowl tight end

448
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 4: wide receiver averaging five and four point eight targets, respectively,

449
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 4: running backs all the way down to three point three.

450
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 4: So just again, it's it's weird, but it's a higher

451
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,199
Speaker 4: floor in this game for tight ends and wide receivers

452
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 4: than running backs. So I think between wide receivers and

453
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 4: tight ends, I prefer to just take a tight end

454
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 4: straight up in this especially with the guys we're working

455
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 4: with this year. I mean, some of these years, you know,

456
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 4: if you're Travis Kelcey and Gronks aren't in the game,

457
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 4: you just got some more blocking types of tight end.

458
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,880
Speaker 4: But we've got Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, George Kittle, and

459
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 4: Austin Hooper. All these guys have spent at least twenty

460
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 4: five or more percent of the snaps and slot out wide.

461
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 4: I mean, you can call Kittle and Cook they were

462
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 4: their team's number one receiver this year and they just

463
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 4: happened to be called tight ends. So you know, we've

464
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 4: talked a lot about the coverages, you know, how tight

465
00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 4: ends need to be on the field, and just in generally, man,

466
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 4: give me all the wide receivers and tight ends you

467
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 4: can get.

468
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, specifically, if you look at the past, Oh, we're

469
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 2: talking about wide receivers right now, but I guess should

470
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 2: we we've kind of transitioned to tight ends.

471
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 3: I just kind of grew up them in the same

472
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 3: at this point.

473
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 2: So yeah, so if we look at the past, we

474
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: see the wide receivers. All of the wide receivers on

475
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 2: one team have averaged forty six point one DraftKings points

476
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 2: per game over the last seven years, so there is

477
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 2: like a significant number of points that can be divided

478
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 2: between like each wide receiver unit, and for the tight ends,

479
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 2: it has been for the last seven years twenty two

480
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 2: point two points per game to be divided between two guys.

481
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 2: So I think, like it just it kind of depends, right.

482
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 2: It often has been the case where you have one

483
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 2: tight end who is just like really dominated production over

484
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 2: the other guy in that unit. And so like for me,

485
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 2: I think it's pretty clearly if I have to take

486
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 2: two of the guys and hope that the the other

487
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 2: two guys aren't the ones to go off, like I

488
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 2: want Kittle and I want Ebron, Like I think that

489
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 2: those are the guys that you kind of lock in.

490
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 2: I don't have a lot of just general interest in

491
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 2: Hooper to begin with, and Cook is just kind of

492
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 2: like so inconsistent anyway that I don't know, like I

493
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 2: can't imagine him out scoring Ebron, but I mean it

494
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 2: is possible, Like, how are you kind of breaking down

495
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 2: the tight ends.

496
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 4: I'm a little bit on the other I know what

497
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 4: you're saying, like from just a general perspective, but I'm

498
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 4: worried about Ebron's health, because look, the Colts won't even

499
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 4: playing on fifty percent snaps like in the playoffs when

500
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 4: he was out there, he was Andy was.

501
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 3: You know, we got Andrew Luck out there.

502
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 4: So I'm sure Andy will find a way to get

503
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 4: Ebron a ends on target like he does every other

504
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 4: game they playing together.

505
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, other, I mean Ebron does.

506
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 4: I could see a scenario where you know, all these

507
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 4: type you know, maybe Kittle and Hooper go fifty percent,

508
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 4: but I could see more of like a seventy thirty

509
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 4: split in favor of Cook if Ebron's not one hundred percent.

510
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 4: And I I mean just putting Kittle next to Hooper.

511
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 4: Obviously you'll take Kittle ten times out of ten, but

512
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 4: I mean we got to think about the prices here,

513
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 4: and Kittle's fifty six hundred in the flex spot and draftings,

514
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 4: and Hooper's all the way down to eighteen hundred. I mean,

515
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 4: Hooper isn't quite on these guys level as receiver, but

516
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 4: I mean he's shown the big playability, you know, and

517
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 4: in my Pro Bowl article, I give that touchdown he

518
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 4: had against the Bears last year where he stiff armed

519
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 4: their safety basically straight the hell he's got a lot

520
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 4: of athletics. Say, a guy can make a big play

521
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,879
Speaker 4: for you. So I'm just saying like he's for Hooper

522
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 4: to be like by far the number four tight end,

523
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 4: He's still like got more ability.

524
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 3: I think than you'd expect out of that position.

525
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, so big picture, you want to prioritize wide receiver

526
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 2: and tight end. Let's look at the defenses anything here.

527
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mentioned earlier that you know, we have seen

528
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 4: less scoring in recent history. I feer than fifty points

529
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 4: in three of the last five matchups. I mean, it's

530
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 4: it's tough because you want to put the defensive down

531
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 4: because of the you know that they can't blitz, which

532
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 4: you know obviously and help you generate sacks, and you're

533
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 4: not expecting them to be able to make too many

534
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 4: tackles for a loss. But we have seen qbs throw

535
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 4: twenty nine touchdowns versus twenty two interceptions over these past

536
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 4: five years, so there has.

537
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 3: Been plenty of turnovers.

538
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 4: And I think it's a contrarium way to get a

539
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 4: potential special teams touchdown, get a random late defensive touchdown

540
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 4: in DFS.

541
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't have too much info on it

542
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 3: other than I don't.

543
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 4: Think anyone really wants to play defenses in DFS, so

544
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 4: it's a good way to at least have a higher ceiling,

545
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:31,719
Speaker 4: I think than rostering a kicker or something.

546
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, as you were mentioning, I think it will be

547
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 2: very contrarian. You do have these quarterbacks throwing to wide

548
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: receivers they're not accustomed to, so they're timing could be off.

549
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 2: It's interesting. I mean, I think like cornerbacks, like they

550
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 2: might tend to be maybe a little more aggressive, Like,

551
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 2: I think there is the possibility for more interceptions in

552
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 2: this game. I think also from the trench perspective, I

553
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 2: don't know, like these are really good pass rushers, and

554
00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 2: the cumulative benefit of having like four really pass rushers

555
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 2: going against five offensive linemen who don't play with each other,

556
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 2: Like I think there is also like the potential for

557
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 2: sacks too, you know. So I think it is contrarying

558
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 2: to go with the defense, but there there is a

559
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 2: lot of upside there.

560
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 4: It's way harder for I mean an offensive line or

561
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 4: they're meshing and gelling together, so it's way harder for

562
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 4: them to get on the same page in a week

563
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 4: defensive lineman. I mean, yeah, like I said, they're just

564
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 4: paying their ears back and they're trying to be by

565
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 4: in front of them.

566
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 3: It's the same thing they've always done.

567
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 2: So yeah, and for them, like even from the beginning,

568
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 2: it's a total rush I mean yeah, I mean they're

569
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 2: just pass rushing, like they're not playing the run at all.

570
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly.

571
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 2: So it's kind of like like fourth quarter dynamics almost

572
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 2: the entire game.

573
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 4: They literally put in again the two minute quarter in

574
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 4: the first and third quarters, so you're gonna get those

575
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 4: hurry up situations every quarter.

576
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, kickers, I mean, don't don't roster them. I

577
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 2: think you know, I think we're good on kickers. Yeah,

578
00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 2: I mean, so there are multiple reasons like the goalpost

579
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 2: being changed, for instance, But in the Pro Bowl they

580
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 2: have averaged a seventy six percent conversion rate, which is

581
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 2: like far less than they do in the regular season.

582
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 2: You know, they don't have their normal holders. They are

583
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 2: just a lot of a lot of reasons why they

584
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: could be kicking less successfully. And then just they also

585
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 2: don't get as many attempts either, because like no one

586
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 2: goes to the Pro Bowl to see I don't know,

587
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 2: Chris Boswell kick a forty yard field goal like no

588
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 2: one cares. And also coaches, I think because it's the

589
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: Pro Bowl, like they can be more aggressive in their

590
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 2: play calling going forward on fourth down because like there

591
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 2: are no repercussions. So yeah, I think it's a it's

592
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 2: a good situation there for them. Enough about kickers, It's

593
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 2: time for me to talk about mac Weldon. The clothes

594
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 2: I wore when we recorded Wednesday's podcast, I'm still wearing

595
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596
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597
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598
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,520
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599
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600
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601
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602
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603
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604
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605
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606
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607
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608
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609
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610
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611
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612
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613
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 2: that's what was written for me to say, but I

614
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,640
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615
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616
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617
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618
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,400
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619
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,680
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620
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621
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622
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:20,440
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623
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,560
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624
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,000
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625
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,280
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626
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,120
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627
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,440
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628
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629
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 2: It's my power suit. But really I love everything I've

630
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631
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632
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634
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Speaker 2: of one to ten. That's not even That was both

635
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Speaker 2: fantastic and horrible. It took me about five times to

636
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 2: get that library.

637
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,080
Speaker 3: As electric man. I enjoyed it.

638
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, let's talk about some strategy in the captain spot.

639
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: What are you looking to do?

640
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 3: I think we gotta go wide receiver to end here.

641
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 4: It's just easier for them to outscore quarterbacks from our

642
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 4: quarterbacks when we're looking at fifteen to twenty pass attempts.

643
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 4: And you know, obviously we talked about running backs with them

644
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 4: just not having the same level of opportunity. But there's

645
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 4: a lot of value to be had in these wide

646
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 4: receivers because all these guys are awesome, and they're priced

647
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 4: so differently that you know, Tyreek and Juju are your

648
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 4: top guys, but they would never be I think price

649
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 4: this high above like Amari Cooper and Mike Evans in

650
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 4: a normal week. So just look look into the secondary guys,

651
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 4: maybe at Jarvis Landry, you know, Amari Crooper, Mike Evans,

652
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 4: over your Adam Thiel and over your Tyreek Kill in

653
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 4: the captain spot especially. You can still put those guys

654
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 4: in later potentially, but just gives you a little chance

655
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 4: to differentiate your lineup a little bit while keeping that upside.

656
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 2: All right, Any theory for stacking, I mean, I don't

657
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 2: know if you know, if it's a decent situation to

658
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 2: think about stacking teammates. I mean, historically there really hasn't

659
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 2: been much of a correlation between how a quarterback does

660
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 2: and his like the receivers on his own like personal

661
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 2: team have done. But I don't know, just any any

662
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 2: thoughts on this.

663
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's tough.

664
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 4: So it looks like Andre Roberts is actually gonna be

665
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 4: the AFC's return.

666
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: Man.

667
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 4: I'm not sure if that means Tyreek Hill won't return

668
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 4: at all, but it won't be one hundred percent, So

669
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 4: just keep that out of mind for your dst stacks.

670
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 4: But yeah, man, I don't I don't have a clear

671
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 4: strategy on this. You got to kind of look at

672
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 4: I think, when they're going to play at least. So

673
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 4: it does make sense with these teammates a little bit.

674
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 4: I mean you'd expect, you know, Trubisky, Tarik Cohen, both

675
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 4: of them to kind of be playing in the reserve group.

676
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 4: Same thing with Dak and Amari Cooper. The Patty Mahomes

677
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 4: Tyreek Hill pairing does scare me a little bit because

678
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 4: you know, those are gonna be your starters, and I

679
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 4: don't know, out of all these receivers, it just seems

680
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 4: like Tyreek would be the guy to you know, kind

681
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 4: of get sat on the bench a little bit early.

682
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 4: And we have seen him in two Pro Bowls and

683
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 4: he's only gotten twenty seven score less yards. You know,

684
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 4: famous last words by me probably as he gets tripled

685
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 4: out in the first.

686
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 3: Play of the game.

687
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 4: But yeah, and then the only other teammate Stack is

688
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 4: uh Andrew Lockeric Debron.

689
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 3: We talked a little bit earlier.

690
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 4: I talked about some concerns I have with ebrom So

691
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 4: I think if you do want to go teammate Stacks, Tubisky, Cohen.

692
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 3: Dak Cooper, but I don't think you need to worry

693
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 3: about it too much.

694
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 2: The thing that's that's interesting. So I guess there are

695
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 2: a few things that are interesting about it. So Tyreek

696
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 2: in the past was a I think he got into

697
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 2: the Pro Bowl as like a returner, and so this

698
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 2: is like his first year as like a wide receiver.

699
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 2: Maybe it was even kind of like like the flex

700
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 2: in which he kind of got in but he might

701
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 2: get more usage. And it is that situation where like

702
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 2: he does have he does have his quarterback, and he

703
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 2: is the perfect wide receiver for ma Homes. I think

704
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 2: there's just a larger question of are they going to

705
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: be stacked together in so many lineups that it makes

706
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 2: sense to kind of go against that stack, And I

707
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 2: think that would maybe be the case. Like I think

708
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,320
Speaker 2: it would be easy for people who are playing to

709
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: look at Prescott and be like, oh, I'm going to

710
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 2: stack him with Cooper, I'm going to stack Hill with Mahomes.

711
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,959
Speaker 2: I'm gonna stack Cohen with Trubisky. So, like, I don't know,

712
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 2: there might be the possibility of going against those stacks

713
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 2: could also be plus ev One thing to keep in mind,

714
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 2: there are no kickoffs in the Pro Bowl, so we

715
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 2: don't get like the benefit of Tyreek Hill running back kickoffs,

716
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 2: so the only benefit that he has as a returner

717
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,719
Speaker 2: would theoretically be for punts. But the thing is, there

718
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 2: are so few punts in the Pro Bowl that it

719
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 2: almost doesn't even make sense to think about the benefit

720
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 2: that someone offers as a return man. Last year, there

721
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 2: was literally one punt in the Pro Bowl. Now granted

722
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 2: the year before that that was eight, but that was

723
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: like one of the highest that we've seen, Like over

724
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 2: the last seven years, we've seen an average of five

725
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 2: point one, but like we've seen anywhere from like three

726
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 2: to four as something that is kind of normal. So

727
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 2: we're probably not going to see a lot of usage

728
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: for someone like Andre Robert. But like I think it's

729
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 2: probable that they will probably throw him like a bone,

730
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 2: whether that's like an end around or you know, like

731
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,399
Speaker 2: one target or something. But yeah, probably not a lot

732
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 2: to expect from him. Ian for cash games, any general

733
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,439
Speaker 2: kind of strategies that you have, I.

734
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 4: Think the opportunity is just so kind of disproportionated between

735
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 4: running backs and these receivers. You're gonna want to focus

736
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,359
Speaker 4: on the passing game in both both formats. I mean,

737
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 4: I know there's this there isn't that workhorse running back

738
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 4: in this game? It does not exist. So we just

739
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 4: got to look at the wide receivers and tight ends.

740
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 4: They're gonna be getting the most targets. Definitely think you know,

741
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 4: you want to be tight end heavy given you know, again,

742
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 4: we're looking at like pretty much a minimum fifty percent

743
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 4: snap rate for him no matter what.

744
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 3: And I think maybe the NFC is.

745
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 4: The safer bet for targets just because they don't have

746
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 4: the extra returner and Andre Roberts just take up snaps,

747
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 4: even though I do agree, I don't think it will

748
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 4: be much, but they.

749
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 3: Don't have that.

750
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 4: And DeVante Adams, I mean, he wasn't able to play

751
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 4: in weeks a team when he only needed a couple

752
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 4: more I think yards to break some pretty cool Packers records.

753
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 3: With this knee injury. He hasn't been ruled out yet.

754
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 4: I mean, he's got the questionable tag on DraftKings though,

755
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 4: so it's like, how many snaps is this guy really

756
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 4: gonna play even if he does decide to suit up.

757
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 4: So those are my thoughts there, and then at the

758
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 4: quarterback spot, I'm between. I guess this goes to you

759
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 4: and Raybaughns kind of season long discussion. But I'm stuck

760
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 4: between Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck here because I think,

761
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,839
Speaker 4: you know, getting past the starters, I just don't thin'

762
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 4: there to play as much. I kind of have my

763
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 4: hesitations about Dak and Trubisky just with how reliant they

764
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 4: kind of usually are on rushing. So how do you

765
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 4: feel between Watson and Luck Because I am leading Watson

766
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 4: a little bit right now because this is going to

767
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 4: be the best offensive line he's had in his NFL career,

768
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,280
Speaker 4: and he does run a lot, but he also throws

769
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 4: down field so much. I think that does help in

770
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 4: this format, maybe over Luck, who's more of a checkdown type.

771
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 4: But I don't know, what do you think?

772
00:35:56,120 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good question. Yeah, I think I would

773
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 2: maybe go with Watson. In a venue like this where

774
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 2: I think maybe like athleticism matters a little bit more,

775
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 2: kind of like the willingness just to air the ball

776
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 2: out a little bit more and let your receivers make

777
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 2: the play, I think maybe I would. I would go

778
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,160
Speaker 2: with Watson. But yeah, I mean, I think historically, as

779
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 2: long as you're going with either one of those two,

780
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 2: if you're kind of fading the guy who's starting I

781
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 2: think it's probably the better scenario. Any final thoughts here

782
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 2: with GPPs.

783
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 3: Not really.

784
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 4: Again, if you're going to take a shot on the

785
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,359
Speaker 4: running back position, do it with Kamara and Cohen, I think.

786
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 4: And yeah, you know, if you're feeling crazy, I know,

787
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 4: maybe the man's is shout out. But Kyle jus check,

788
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 4: you know, sixteen percent and that slaughter out wide, and

789
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,240
Speaker 4: he did catch multiple passes and ten of sixteen games

790
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 4: a season, So I mean, I'm sure Jason Garrett won't

791
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 4: be scheming up just as well as Kyle Shanahan was,

792
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 4: but you know, he is a legit athlete and he

793
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,319
Speaker 4: could end up being relied on in pass protection and

794
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 4: playing more snaps than probably any other running back.

795
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if there is one slate in which

796
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,839
Speaker 2: it is ever like a legitimate strategy to go with

797
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 2: a full back, this is the slate. This is This

798
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,760
Speaker 2: is not just use check, this is not just his

799
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 2: his Pro Bowl, this is his Super Bowl. So this

800
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,680
Speaker 2: can be the time for him. Okay, Any thoughts on

801
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:18,479
Speaker 2: betting this.

802
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would take the under. I'm not touching either

803
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:24,959
Speaker 4: of these sides. I haven't seen any props up yet,

804
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 4: but you know, I'm sure, as all listeners can tell

805
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 4: from our conversations, I'd be down to pound any unders

806
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 4: on rushing yards and then taking the overs on the

807
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 4: tight end position as well.

808
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally agree with that. We haven't seen props. They

809
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 2: might be released on Friday or Saturday with books maybe

810
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 2: looking to get a little more action. I agree with you.

811
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:46,479
Speaker 2: Although historically the over has really been the side to take,

812
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 2: there's been this push to the under in recent years

813
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 2: as the pace of the game has kind of quickened,

814
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 2: not in terms of like teams playing, but in terms

815
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 2: of like the clock continues to run. So yeah, I

816
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 2: think for me just kind of depending on the line

817
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 2: that you see out there, but I always would tend

818
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,840
Speaker 2: to go to the under here. Okay, Ian, you have

819
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 2: the article that came out on Fantasy Labs with your

820
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 2: breakdown for the Pro Bowl. Everyone should be sure to

821
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:14,840
Speaker 2: check that out. Any final thoughts here, that's.

822
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,399
Speaker 4: All man looking forward to watching the Pro Bowl. This

823
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 4: is actually the first Pro Bowl in the last five years.

824
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 4: I think, with the mount I've invested into the article

825
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 4: on this podcast, I'm actually kind of excited for it now.

826
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm always excited for it, but in a

827
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 2: kind of ironic way.

828
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, I'm with it there.

829
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, that's going to do it for this

830
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,280
Speaker 2: episode of the Action Network NFL podcast. For Ian Harden's

831
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 2: I'm Matthew Freeman, matt at the Oracle. See you get

832
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:43,359
Speaker 2: next episode,