1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: All Zone Media. Hello and welcome to Better Offline. I'm 2 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: your host ed ze Tron. In the next two episodes, 3 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 1: I want to present you with a theory about why 4 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,759 Speaker 1: the tech industry has felt so weird for the last 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: few years and why there are so many products that 6 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: have popped up that don't seem to really do anything 7 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: or be things that people have actually asked for. And 8 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: it comes down to a few simple questions, chief of them, 9 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: what if the next big thing in tech is actually 10 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: years or decades away? What if the era of hypergrowth 11 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: in tech is over now? As I've mentioned before, I 12 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: believe the rot economy is to blame for a lot 13 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: of this. It's a growth that all cost mindset that 14 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:53,960 Speaker 1: sits at the core of pretty much everything I've written 15 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: or spoken about. It's this force that drives businesses to 16 00:00:57,280 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: grow bigger rather than better, and make products to conu 17 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: markets and show growth to the public markets, rather than 18 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: fixing a problem that you or I might have or 19 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:09,320 Speaker 1: a business might have, or provide a necessary service that 20 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 1: was nevertheless popular and profitable. And the row economy it 21 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,320 Speaker 1: doesn't feel like any other economic period I've seen. It's 22 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: not like, say, I don't know the post two thousand 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 1: and eight financial crisis, or that stagnation that lingered afterwards. 24 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: And what's different was there isn't really a single obvious 25 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: event that started the declient of the services we're using, 26 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: all the companies that make them, and there's not really 27 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: like a Layman Brothers crater we can point at and say, 28 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: there you go, that's the thing. The closest I can 29 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 1: come is kind of FTX, which was the big crypto crash, 30 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: the big massive Ponzi scheme that no one really saw 31 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: coming other than many people who were looking behind the scenes. 32 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: But other than that, that was kind of what crashed crypto. 33 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: And maybe it was the end of the zero interest 34 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: free era where interest rates went up and it was 35 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: harder to get money. But it was no one thing 36 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: you could point out. But I do want to try, 37 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: and I have one epoch I think for when the 38 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 1: rat economy kind of took over, and I'd want to 39 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 1: point to the latter point of the twenty tens. Think 40 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: about it, like really think about it for a second. 41 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: Sometime after twenty nineteen, the tech industry it kind of 42 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: lost its sizzle. There were new gadgets, there were new apps, 43 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: new services, but tech started to feel iterative rather than innovative. 44 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,399 Speaker 1: Yet they were making more money than ever, and by 45 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, even the pretense of any gradual improvement 46 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: was really dropped. It felt like, I don't know, they 47 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: were trying to sell us things that didn't really exist. 48 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: We were told that NFTs would replace physical, tangible collectibles 49 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 1: and that cryptocurrency would replace regular money, while also emancipating 50 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: customers for an unstoppable market force like inflation or big tech. 51 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 1: Because of course cryptocurrency came with it the idea and 52 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 1: a mean idea of decentralized software, and this was all 53 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 1: meant to get rid of rent seeking middle men that 54 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: were taking parts of every purchase, despite the very same 55 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 1: middle men investing in cryptocurrency. Yet the actual services that 56 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: came out of these movements didn't really seem to do 57 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: anything or improve our lives in any meaningful way. And 58 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: we were told at one point that our futures were 59 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: in the meta verus and we lived in this massive 60 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,799 Speaker 1: interconnected called New Internet. YEP, when we actually got there, 61 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 1: it was just this really wonky VR virtual reality space 62 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 1: that Mark Zuckerberg's somehow burned thirty six billion dollars on. 63 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: It's all so weird, and today we're told that we 64 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: have this glorious AI powered future that's just imminent. Yet 65 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: what we've actually got is this unprofitable, unsustainable generative AI 66 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 1: that has this horrible, unastainable problem of hallucination where it 67 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 1: spits out incorrect information authoritatively, which, worryingly, Google CEO Sander 68 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 1: Pesha has said in an interview with The Verge is 69 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 1: an inherent feature of a technology that he's now plugged 70 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: into Google Search, which means it's generating these horrible answers 71 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: to queries based on the links of a search engine 72 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 1: that Sundar Pieshai has helped decay. It's all just very frustrating, 73 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: and it's also quite useless. Kind of it logical too. 74 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:16,159 Speaker 1: And at the forefront of this AI boom is Sam 75 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: Moltman and his eighty billion dollar Jugger or open Ai, 76 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 1: a company that claims it's going to build artificial general intelligence, 77 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:27,040 Speaker 1: one that experiences human like cognition, which is just not 78 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: possible with generative AI. The tech he is selling today 79 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 1: is not going to give us AGI. I just want 80 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 1: to be abundantly clear about that. Anytime you read Sam 81 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: Mortman talking about AGI, he is talking about tech the 82 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 1: open AI does not have and is not building. They 83 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:43,559 Speaker 1: may claim they're building it behind the scenes, but they're 84 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 1: only working on generative AI. And the frustration you hear 85 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: in my voice you might have felt yourself. You might 86 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 1: not have, but it's this prevailing sense of you keep 87 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: telling me the future is here, but when I look 88 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: at what the future is, it isn't even close. And 89 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: the products so selling me aren't actually useful. Let me 90 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: give you another example. Windows laptops will soon integrate an 91 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: AI powered search feature called Recall that allows you to 92 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 1: search everything you've ever done on your computer in the 93 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: last three months, and it does so by recording everything, 94 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: everything from the meetings you've been into to the things 95 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: you've written. I should be clear, I don't think anybody 96 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: actually asked for a feature like this, and it's also 97 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 1: inherently invasive. It directly encroaches on your privacy and your security, 98 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 1: and it takes screenshots of your machine every few seconds 99 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: and stores them, along with AI generated inferences, in a 100 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:42,839 Speaker 1: locally held database. This isn't good, and the fact that 101 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: they're not sending anywhere doesn't really make it better. It 102 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 1: is in essence a pre installed screen recorder, the kind 103 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 1: of thing that hacker might install on a victim's computer, 104 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,599 Speaker 1: and if an attacker gains access to it, it's obvious 105 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:59,679 Speaker 1: how catastrophic the ramifications are, or let's be honest, domestic 106 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 1: abuse people at work. There are people who can get 107 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 1: on your computer, force access by forcing you or just 108 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: getting your password, and they can now see everything you've done. 109 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 1: Despite this being an inherently AI powered feature, it just 110 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 1: it can't distinguish between your regular computer usage and say, 111 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: sensitive information passwords, health information, trade secrets, the very obvious 112 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 1: stuff you would not want your computer recording. It treats, 113 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: I don't know, like an email from your doctor with 114 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 1: the same level of concern and copying as it would 115 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:37,200 Speaker 1: like YouTube or a chat conversation. It's just really bad 116 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: and already white hat security researchers they've created a proof 117 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: of concept malware applications that can pull sensitive data obtained 118 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: or generated by Microsoft Recall from your computer and with 119 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: pretty minimal effort, and now the UK's Information Commissioner's Office, 120 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: the nation's privacy watchdog, by the way, they can actually 121 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 1: do quite steep fines. It's not great they're now probing 122 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: whether the tech actually sen's an unacceptable risk to consumers, 123 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: which as anyone who thinks about it for more than 124 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: twelve seconds or even five can confirm it does. It's 125 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: just very frustrating. And who asked for this? Who actually 126 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 1: asked for this? Now every major tech company they're integrating 127 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: AI into their products and services. Yeah, underneath the hood, 128 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 1: the AI they're integrating doesn't actually seem to do anything new, 129 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: or generate a profit or solve anyone's actual needs, even 130 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: the companies themselves seeming capable of explaining why AI is 131 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,000 Speaker 1: such a big deal. To the point, the Microsoft Super 132 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: Bowl commercial for its AI powered co pilot assistant featured 133 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 1: multiple things that it cannot do, like generate the code 134 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: for an open world game. When you, by the way, 135 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 1: you type in the prompt, which on the commercial is 136 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: three D generate the code for an open world three 137 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,200 Speaker 1: D game, and you type that in and it will 138 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: give you a list of things you should do to 139 00:07:55,000 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: build an open world game. It's so strange, and it's 140 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 1: so strange how so many of these companies just can't 141 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: really explain why this is the next best thing. They 142 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 1: just need you to believe them, and maybe that might 143 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 1: actually be the problem. For decades, the tech industry and 144 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 1: its various venture capital funders, they've been remarkably good at 145 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 1: coming up with both innovative new products and waste to 146 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:34,079 Speaker 1: turn them into huge new markets for hypergrowth, one hundred 147 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: billion trillion dollar markets that they could then sell in 148 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: to investing companies. Within actual industries, you had search engines, 149 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: digital maps, smartphones and apps, social media, cloud computing, software 150 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: as a service, electro cars, streaming audio and video, and 151 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: also another thing. In the period between like two thousand 152 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 1: and five and twenty twenty four, we've tripled the amount 153 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 1: of people on the Internet. It's now over five billion 154 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:00,679 Speaker 1: people who use it. And that's also an problem I'll 155 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: get to in a little bit. There were obvious meaningful 156 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 1: markets to move into, ways to connect people, ways to 157 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,839 Speaker 1: get people content. They wanted algorithms to present it to them, 158 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: ways to sell people. Things that solve problems that they 159 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 1: had or either for the first time or solving them faster, 160 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,439 Speaker 1: like the transition from physical to digital media, and problems 161 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: that were both important to solve and actually solvable. Teke 162 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 1: has perpetually succeeded at building things, new things that neatly 163 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: create these new markets, and they've been incentivized by both 164 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: the public and private markets in growing these companies as 165 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,959 Speaker 1: fast and as big as possible to dominate these new markets, 166 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 1: with the assumption that there would always be more of them, 167 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:43,319 Speaker 1: more massive, multi billion and multi trillion dollar markets to conquer. 168 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: And it must be clear you should never assume anything. 169 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 1: Between twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three, only one 170 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 1: hundred million additional people got online, which is the slowest 171 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 1: rate of growth in the last eighteen years. That it's 172 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: not because the need to bring connectivity to the masses 173 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: is actually solved, especially in the global South. It hasn't been, 174 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: and as of the most recent figures from the UN's 175 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: International Telecoms Union shows thirty three percent of the world's population, 176 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: or about two point six billion people, have never actually 177 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: used the Internet. But I have more worrying stuff. I've 178 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 1: received some data from similar Web that shows that the 179 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 1: majority of the Internet's top one hundred web properties have 180 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 1: seen significant declines in traffic since twenty twenty one. In 181 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: the years since the world slowly emerged from lockdown, Google 182 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: dot Com has seen the decline of five point three 183 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: percent in web visits, as has YouTube, which lost three 184 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: point eight percent of its traffic, Facebook, which lost a 185 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: remarkable twenty seven point seven percent, Twitter which lost three 186 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: point five percent, Amazon which lost eleven point six percent, 187 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 1: Twitch dot tv seventeen point five percent lost. There they 188 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: are owned by Amazon. Sadly, Wikipedia which lost twenty four 189 00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:59,559 Speaker 1: point eight percent of its traffic. And here's the thing 190 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,880 Speaker 1: that really worried me. Porn sites like ex videos twenty 191 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: seven point four percent loss and porn harp seventeen point 192 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: one percent loss. When the pawn's down, that's that's when 193 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 1: you start worrying. Though you might be tempted to dismiss 194 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 1: this all as a result of life returning to normal 195 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: and the traditional office based environments aren't particularly conducive to 196 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: a crafty mid day wank, you shouldn't. The trend actually 197 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 1: began earlier, with similar web data showing the declines starting 198 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: in twenty nineteen. My analysis focus is in twenty twenty 199 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 1: one to twenty twenty four because that's the one I 200 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: have the most detailed month by month and year by 201 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: year breakdowns for. And by the way, I'm going to 202 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: put in the episode notes links to things so that 203 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: you can all see this. I want you to know 204 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: this date is very worrying, but don't trust me. Trust 205 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: the data from similar Web. When you look at the 206 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:51,079 Speaker 1: trajectory of the web's most valuable properties on a year 207 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:56,080 Speaker 1: over year basis, things look quite bleak, with Google which 208 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: lost about point nine percent, YouTube lost about four point 209 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 1: four percent, Facebook seven point seven percent loss, Twitter six 210 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: point two percent loss, Twitch eleven point nine percent loss, 211 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 1: and Amazon two point seven percent loss, all still seeing 212 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 1: significant the clients. Only a few sites like Reddit, which 213 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,079 Speaker 1: saw a thirty one point three percent growth, TikTok eleven 214 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: point six percent growth, and Instagram nine point nine percent 215 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: growth but trending down every year since twenty nineteen, and 216 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: also LinkedIn up seventeen point nine percent. They're the only 217 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 1: ones that are really seeing good year over year growth. 218 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 1: And while it's important to note that these are visits 219 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 1: rather than active users, and in fairness, this data only 220 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 1: covers visits made through a browser rather than an app, 221 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 1: this is still a truly astounding trend that suggests for 222 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 1: the most part that the web's largest platforms are seeing 223 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 1: kind of a digital recession. While there might be revenue 224 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,680 Speaker 1: coming to these companies and they might still be acquiring 225 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: no users. There's really no good way to spin the 226 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: fact that traffic to platforms like Amazon and Google has 227 00:12:56,280 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: plateaued then declined something shifting downwards, and it's been doing 228 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: so since twenty nineteen. Perhaps this explains why platforms like 229 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: Google and Facebook have kept making changes to make each 230 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: user journey, create more engagement and make it more profitable 231 00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,959 Speaker 1: to sustain growth, because fewer people than ever are actually 232 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:19,080 Speaker 1: visiting the platforms. I believe her at the end of 233 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:22,079 Speaker 1: something I called the rock coom boom, the tech industry's 234 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: hypergrowth cycle, where there were so many new lands to conquer, 235 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 1: so many new ways to pile money into, so many 236 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:31,680 Speaker 1: new innovative, useful ideas, that it felt like every tech 237 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: company could experience perpetual growth just by throwing money at 238 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: a problem. It also explains why so many tech products YouTube, Google, Search, Facebook, 239 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 1: and so on feel like they're either trapped in amber 240 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 1: or like they've got tangibly worse, because when you think 241 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: about it, when there's no incentive to improve the things 242 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: you've already built, why would you you should just be 243 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: working on the next big thing or new ways to 244 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 1: duce the thing you have right now to keep people 245 00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 1: coming back, yeah, maybe, but to keep people on the 246 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 1: plat sometimes by monopolizing an industry so they have nowhere 247 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: else to go. And that's the thing. All of these companies, Facebook, Google, Amazon, 248 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 1: I mean all of them. They've all built themselves on 249 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 1: this very simple idea that they'd always be a next 250 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 1: big thing. And I'm not even saying that they won't be, 251 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: but they've assumed and the problem that they're facing right 252 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: now is that there would always be one around the corner. 253 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: This belief that exponential growth is not just a reasonable 254 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: expectation but a requirement is central to the core of 255 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 1: the rot in the tech industry. And as these rapacious 256 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: demands run into reality, I'm sorry to say that the 257 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: rock coombubble is going to deflate. And as we speak, 258 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: the tech industry they grappling with somewhat of a midlife crisis, 259 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: and they're desperately searching for that next hypergrowth market, and 260 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 1: they're eagerly pushing customers and businesses to adopt this technology 261 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 1: that nobody actually asked for. They must keep the rot 262 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: economy alive, because if they don't, they're gonna they're gonna 263 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: have to face the fact that they've built pretty unsustainable 264 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 1: businesses even though they're profitable, even though they keep growing. 265 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: The only thing that grows forever is cancer the row 266 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 1: economy and takes growth lust. It isn't new, though. Venture 267 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: capital has been incentivising and monetizing rot for over a decade, 268 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 1: and Mark andrew's An advocated in twenty eleven that we 269 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: should look to expand the number of innovative new software 270 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: companies created rather than constantly questioning their valuations. Yet just 271 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 1: a year earlier, in March twenty ten, is partner Ben Horowitz. 272 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 1: He advocated for fat startups, and I'll link to that 273 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: in the notes, saying that you can't save your way 274 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 1: to winning the market, and that startup purgatory is when 275 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: you don't go bankrupt, but you fail to build the 276 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: number one product in this space and have zero chance 277 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: of becoming a high growth company, which, by the way, 278 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: Horowitz described this as worse than startup hell, because you 279 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 1: are and I quote stuck with the small company, even 280 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: if it's cash flow positive. At the time, this might 281 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 1: have made sense to them because this mindset made them 282 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 1: quite rich. Even though there's something inherently abnormal about describing 283 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 1: being a staple profitable company as being an estate that's 284 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 1: worse than hell anyway. I want you to take a 285 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: step back in time with me, though, and think about 286 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: how much has changed in the last ten years, fifteen years. 287 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: Think about it for a second. In twenty ten, it 288 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: felt like we were just making our first steps into 289 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: the digital world. It was still pretty new twenty ten. 290 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: There was no Instacart. There was no Zoom, no Snapchat, 291 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: no Lyft, no Tinder, no Slack, no Snowflake, no door Dash, 292 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: no TikTok, no Discord, no Coinbase, no Robinhood, and there 293 00:16:55,240 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: wasn't any Venmo or Zel either. Tesla, Facebook, LinkedIn, Airbnb, Uber, Square, Alassian, Octor, 294 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: Mongo dB, work Day, Palo Alto Networks, Asana, UiPath, Spotify. 295 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: They hadn't even gone public yet. Instagram was still independent, 296 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 1: it wasn't part of Facebook yet, and consumer drones they 297 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,960 Speaker 1: hadn't reached, Ubiquity, Voice assistance hadn't even been launched. Full 298 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: Glte Networks they were brand new, and Amazon Web Services, 299 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,479 Speaker 1: one of the most profitable things in the world, as 300 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: I'll get to, was on course to make six hundred 301 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: million dollars in revenue in twenty ten, which is, by 302 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: the way, two point five percent of the twenty four 303 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 1: billion the AWS on its own made. In the first 304 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,120 Speaker 1: quarter of twenty twenty four, Google and Apple stock prices 305 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,400 Speaker 1: were worth less than a tenth of what they are today. 306 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: An Nvidia A stock now worth over one thousand dollars, 307 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 1: traded at under three dollars a share. Between two thousand 308 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: and five and twenty eighteen, we saw this incredible surge 309 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: of innovation and take valuations, and this kind of seemingly 310 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:58,160 Speaker 1: unstoppable period of growth and big sexy ideas that created big, 311 00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:02,359 Speaker 1: sexier new markets. While applications existed in two thousand and eight, 312 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: Apples app Store and the perpetual nature of connection that 313 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: we get from smartphones. It consumerized the concept of distinct 314 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 1: service based apps, as well as the overall concept of 315 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 1: software ecosystems, which has become a multi trillion dollar philosophical 316 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,640 Speaker 1: and economic force, and it's changed just about everything about 317 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 1: how we communicate and even do business. It's remarkable and 318 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: also was a new market just sitting there waiting for 319 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: the hardware and software to catch up with it and 320 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 1: for someone to come up with the idea, of course, 321 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 1: connecting people digitally through social media, voice, video, and so on. 322 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 1: It's been central to the hypergrowth cycle, with innovations like 323 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,360 Speaker 1: connectivity and cloud infrastructure allowing multiple companies to carve out 324 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: these one hundred billion and trillion dollar ecosystems. On some level, 325 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 1: big tech companies could put money through research and development, investment, 326 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 1: or acquisitions wherever they needed to as a means of 327 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,120 Speaker 1: making the future a reality, and thanks to the fact 328 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,919 Speaker 1: that interest rates were rock bottom and there was a 329 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 1: lot of private money going into startups, they were never 330 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 1: really short of cash to do so. At some point, 331 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 1: hype began to outpace innovation, and while there were new ideas, 332 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: the actual fundamental technology required to actually innovate may not 333 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 1: actually exist, making a lot of these ideas theoretical and 334 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: so far behind the cart that you may as well 335 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 1: shoot the horse dead. When Mark Zuckerberg renamed Facebook to 336 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: Meta he told Casey Newton, who by the way, should 337 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: feel nothing but shame for accepting this in good faith, 338 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,359 Speaker 1: that he believed the metaverse was an embodied internet that 339 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: was a persistent, synchronous environment that would resembles social media 340 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 1: but also be an environment where you're embodied in it. 341 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 1: That's a real quote By the way, this is of 342 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 1: course total nonsense, a total word salad that will make 343 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:56,160 Speaker 1: you throw up, conjured up by somebody without any real 344 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 1: ideas that knows that they won't receive any pushback on 345 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,679 Speaker 1: them anyway, not even from those whose job it is 346 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: to scrutinize the tech industry and ask difficult questions so 347 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 1: that people don't buy stupid shit anyway. What Zuckerberg had 348 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 1: actually built, by which for the most part I mean acquired, 349 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 1: was a half fast virtual world accessed through niche virtual 350 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 1: reality technology that nobody asked for that already kind of existed, 351 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 1: that made people sick, and that Meta couldn't actually build. 352 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: And what Mark Zuckerberg wanted to do was built the 353 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 1: successor to the mobile Internet, in the hopes that quote 354 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 1: the metaverse would be another hypergrowth industry where people would 355 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 1: buy land which they didn't, or hang out on mass 356 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 1: which they didn't, or have meetings which they did not, 357 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:41,920 Speaker 1: all while sharing data and watching ads served by Meta 358 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: and other companies that Meta could sell ads too. In 359 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: this cynical, horrible version of the future, the Internet, neutral 360 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 1: standards based and controlled by no single company, would be 361 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 1: transformed into a platform a feudal system where meta would 362 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 1: set the rules an exact cut from each engagement, interaction, 363 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 1: and transaction. It was quite plainly a power grad the 364 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 1: likes of which the Internet hasn't seen since the bleak 365 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,479 Speaker 1: days of Internet Explorer six and Active X. And if 366 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 1: you don't know what those are, Microsoft has some evil 367 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,600 Speaker 1: things in the past. The tech, however, it was never there. 368 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg sold everybody on the concept of a ready 369 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 1: Player one metaverse and putting aside for a second that 370 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: Ready Player one is a poorly written dystopia. This vision 371 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: hinges heavily on the idea of technology that completely immerses 372 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: the user and their senses and makes them feel like 373 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:36,000 Speaker 1: they're actually in a world which is just insane. It's 374 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: not possible, It's not even close to possible. We're talking 375 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: about full sensory takeover and the ability to traverse the 376 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 1: digital world somehow without moving. This would be a revolution, 377 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: both in cloud computing because just the raw data would 378 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 1: be insane, but also immersive technology. Just what was everyone 379 00:21:55,960 --> 00:22:00,880 Speaker 1: doing accepting this idea, And let's be honest, the reality 380 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: was just so much worse. You had these nausea inducing 381 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 1: headsets that led you into this horrible, clunky cartoon world 382 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,919 Speaker 1: that wasn't fun or practical or useful, and tens of 383 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,920 Speaker 1: billions of dollars of R and D costs developing headsets 384 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: that lose money on every sale. It's just insane. By 385 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: the way, Mark Zuckerberg has spent tens of billions of 386 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:22,679 Speaker 1: dollars and I reallyz Sometimes people don't like it when 387 00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 1: I get yelly, and I apologize. But where has the 388 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: thirty billion dollars gone? What has Mark Zuckerberg done with it? 389 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,000 Speaker 1: Where is it going? I don't know. I'm not accusing 390 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 1: anyone of anything, but the whole thing just feels like 391 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,960 Speaker 1: a con. And Zuckerberg's glossy Metaverse video the first one 392 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,399 Speaker 1: he published when they rebranded Facebook to Meta. It was 393 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:45,479 Speaker 1: significant in quite a few ways. First of all, the 394 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 1: most disgusting bullshit I've ever seen a tech company put out, 395 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 1: just complete lies. But it was also a demonstration of 396 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: the company's future ambitions and directions, and it showed exactly 397 00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 1: what they hoped they could build, And had zucker actually 398 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: done so, I would have said it would have been 399 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: a success, but said success would have been predicated on 400 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: a pace of innovation that we haven't had in over 401 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 1: a decade or longer. I don't actually know how we 402 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,159 Speaker 1: get to anything close to what Mark Zuckerberg was selling, 403 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 1: But forty billion dollars later, the metaverse is just nowhere 404 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 1: near close to existing, and yet he keeps burning cash 405 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 1: in the hopes that he can get just one more 406 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: hit of hypergrowth. Man, that's all Mark Zuckerberg needs, just 407 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 1: one more hit. Brother S, gim me a little more growth. 408 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: I'll be okay. I swear I won't need any in 409 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 1: the future. Putting that aside, I really think this is 410 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 1: why Zuckerberg is so full force on generative AI. He 411 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 1: shoved it into every meta platform now, regardless of whether 412 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 1: it does anything useful, whether it's doing anything weird, like 413 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,679 Speaker 1: commenting on a parenting group that it has a gifted 414 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 1: child and telling parents where to take their kids. It's 415 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 1: just so weird. And it's the same reason that Sun 416 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 1: Dhar Pashai and Liz Reader forcing generative AI into Google Search, 417 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 1: even as it misinforms customers and it's recommending people put 418 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 1: glue on their pizza and eat rocks, and it's claiming 419 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:09,360 Speaker 1: that Barack Obama is a Muslim, and it's regurgitating stories 420 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: from the onion as indisputable fact, and it's just it's 421 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 1: very frustrating. You can hear it in my voice. But 422 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,639 Speaker 1: it all comes down to a simple problem, which is 423 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 1: the tech industry is getting withdrawal symptoms. They're realizing there 424 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 1: might not be any massive new markets, they might not 425 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,680 Speaker 1: be another way to create another billion dollar arm of 426 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,919 Speaker 1: a trillion dollar enterprise. And on some level, I believe 427 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 1: that the industry wide alignment around this unprofitable, unsustainable AI 428 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,399 Speaker 1: tool is just proof that they're getting desperate and that 429 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:46,080 Speaker 1: some of them might be irredeemably washed. Why else would 430 00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: Sam Altman spend most of the time talking about what 431 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 1: AI might do. Why else would Sam Altman talk so 432 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: often about building artificial general intelligence, a thing that, as 433 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: I have mentioned, is totally and utterly possible to build 434 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: with any of the generative AI tech his company makes, 435 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,640 Speaker 1: and likely requires kinds of computing that do not exist. Yet. 436 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 1: It's really frustrating, and the rock com bubble bursting is 437 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 1: it's gonna be nasty for bid Tech. It's going to 438 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 1: wash out at least one of these companies, and it 439 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: might take years to happen. But the growth trend is 440 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 1: reversing every single one of these companies, with a few exceptions, 441 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:34,199 Speaker 1: I realize, is seeing traffic declines and they're not improving. 442 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,479 Speaker 1: Perhaps they will find new ways, but where are they 443 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,199 Speaker 1: going to find them? What are the things they're going 444 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,920 Speaker 1: to do? What happens when none of this stuff actually 445 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 1: is the future? What happens when Google Search tells someone 446 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: to actually do something that kills them, how to clean 447 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 1: up a chemical firing correctly, for example. There are very 448 00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: real ways that these things are going to hurt people. 449 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 1: But putting that aside, even if they don't, they're not 450 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 1: going to make them the kind of money and get 451 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: them the kind of customers that they need to perpetually 452 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:13,120 Speaker 1: show perpetual growth. As I said last episode or two 453 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 1: episodes ago, Facebook is dying, and Facebook's dying because I 454 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 1: actually believe Mark Zuckerbig is quite innovative about one thing, 455 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 1: which is he can smell blood in the water, except 456 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 1: now he can smell his I think Mark Zuckerberg realized 457 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,679 Speaker 1: that this was happening many years before everybody else, and 458 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 1: that's why he pushed the metaverse in twenty twenty one. 459 00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,119 Speaker 1: That's why he was talking about Web three and twenty 460 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: twenty one that was a very very easy year to 461 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,199 Speaker 1: get money, and it was a year when people were 462 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 1: aggressively buying things, so it was a great time to 463 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:45,680 Speaker 1: sell new ideas. Also, I think he read Ready Player 464 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 1: one and he actually liked it, which is so strange. 465 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 1: But either way, I do think Zuckerberg's an innovator because 466 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 1: he's realized that the highpergrowth era is over and he's 467 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 1: really trying to create the next best thing. Now. Notice 468 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:03,199 Speaker 1: I didn't say something good or something useful. That's just 469 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: not in Zuckerberg's DNA, and it's not in Sandhar Peshai 470 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: or Sam Ortmann or sach In Adela's either Microsoft, Amazon, Meta. 471 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 1: These companies are not innovative anymore because they're no longer 472 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: engineered to be. When the living was free and easy, 473 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: when there were tons of these markets to attack and 474 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,720 Speaker 1: grow and eat shit out the other way and make 475 00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 1: money from, they just needed a management consultant mindset. It 476 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 1: was growth at all costs. It was growth all the time, 477 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: because all they had to do was throw more money 478 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,359 Speaker 1: at the problem and they'd always keep growing. And to 479 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 1: their credit, they have been. But mark my words, they're 480 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 1: not going to grow forever, and they don't have a 481 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:46,400 Speaker 1: next trick. They don't have the next one billion user product, 482 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,280 Speaker 1: they don't have the next innovation, and I don't think 483 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 1: they're going to have it for a long time. And 484 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,439 Speaker 1: this is why all of this stuff feels kind of weird. 485 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,479 Speaker 1: It's why all of this stuff doesn't seem to be 486 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,399 Speaker 1: solving a need that you or I have, or they 487 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,720 Speaker 1: even a business has, And it's why so often it 488 00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 1: feels like they're pleading with us to believe that this 489 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: is the future. Companies that build useful things that people 490 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 1: need don't need to talk about what they're build in 491 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,400 Speaker 1: the future. You can see it in the things they're 492 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 1: selling you today. You could see in the early days 493 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,880 Speaker 1: of cloud computing how you bickered with storage like Dropbox 494 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: or box might have existed. I was us an FTP. 495 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 1: Thank thank god for drop Box, honestly, but seriously, you 496 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 1: could see why these things were the future. And in 497 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,440 Speaker 1: the next episode, I'm going to walk you through how 498 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 1: the tech industries promises no longer actually seem to match 499 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 1: their ability to build things, and how this desperation that 500 00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 1: I've been discussing shows that we're close to the rock 501 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:56,800 Speaker 1: com bubble bursting. Thanks for listening. Thank you for listening 502 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: to Better Offline. The editor and composer of the Better 503 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 1: Offline Thing song is Mattersowski. You can check out more 504 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 1: of his music and audio projects at Matasowski dot com, 505 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,680 Speaker 1: M A T T O S O W s ki 506 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 1: dot com. You can email me at easy at Better 507 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 1: offline dot com or visit Better Offline dot com to 508 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 1: find more podcast links and of course, my newsletter. I 509 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 1: also really recommend you go to chat dot Where's youreed 510 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 1: dot ad to visit the discord, and go to our 511 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 1: slash Better Offline to check out our reddit. Thank you 512 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 1: so much for listening. Better Offline is a production of 513 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 1: cool Zone Media. For more from cool Zone Media, visit 514 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 1: our website cool Zonemedia dot com, or check us out 515 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get 516 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 1: your podcasts.