1
00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:06,320
Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers a Game with Ryan Gretzky.

2
00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:08,719
Speaker 1: Thank you all for being here on this Thursday episode.

3
00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:11,840
Speaker 1: So we have two things to really get to, one

4
00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,600
Speaker 1: being the most important political story that no one is

5
00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:16,440
Speaker 1: talking about, and then the other one will be pulling,

6
00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:18,000
Speaker 1: which I'll get to in a second. But first, for

7
00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,160
Speaker 1: the major political story, it doesn't have doing with President

8
00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,560
Speaker 1: Trump or a campaign per se. It has to do

9
00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,479
Speaker 1: with Apple and their new iOS system. Apple's preparing to

10
00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,400
Speaker 1: launch iOS twenty six, which is the latest upgrade to

11
00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:33,560
Speaker 1: their operating system. One of the new features that all

12
00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,239
Speaker 1: text messages from unrecognized numbers are put into a spam

13
00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,520
Speaker 1: folder on your phone and you will not be notified,

14
00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:44,120
Speaker 1: kind of like how email works. Well, only numbers that

15
00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,680
Speaker 1: are in your contact list or you have contacted first

16
00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,560
Speaker 1: you'll receive a notification. For this is going to affect

17
00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:52,879
Speaker 1: a lot of industries. It's going to affect restaurants who

18
00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,840
Speaker 1: text you that your table is ready. It will affect doctors'

19
00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,880
Speaker 1: offices that text you say confirm your appointment. It will

20
00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 1: affect uber or two step authentication apps, and other things

21
00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,360
Speaker 1: that send you notifications from these little phone numbers is

22
00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,200
Speaker 1: short code numbers and you have to respond yes or no.

23
00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:14,240
Speaker 1: They're all going in the spam folder. Another industry usually

24
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,080
Speaker 1: impacted by this is campaigns. It's the industry at work

25
00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,600
Speaker 1: in so it's what I'm thinking of you first and foremost.

26
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,920
Speaker 1: The first one first part of that industry will be

27
00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,759
Speaker 1: hurt is fundraising. Seventy percent of all small dollar fundraising

28
00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,640
Speaker 1: comes from SMS text messaging fundraising. Now, I know those

29
00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,840
Speaker 1: texts are very, very annoying because what it usually is

30
00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:39,720
Speaker 1: is people prospecting, buying names and phone numbers and email

31
00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,680
Speaker 1: addresses from other people's lists, and sending fundraising messages out

32
00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,279
Speaker 1: Now with somebody who has a decent sized house file,

33
00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,640
Speaker 1: that's the file that you own of all them people

34
00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,640
Speaker 1: who go donated to you. I don't give my house

35
00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,480
Speaker 1: file to anybody, so I don't do that prospecting element.

36
00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,440
Speaker 1: But it will hurt other people who do because I

37
00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:02,920
Speaker 1: am the exception and not the rule. Right, that will

38
00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:08,120
Speaker 1: be resulting in They're estimating five hundred million dollars of

39
00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,919
Speaker 1: lost revenue for Republican campaigns in one in a first

40
00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:16,760
Speaker 1: year loan thing. Five hundred million is how that's that's

41
00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:20,080
Speaker 1: grassroots money. That's retirees. That's middle class people, that's upper

42
00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,519
Speaker 1: middle class people. But that is the money that is

43
00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:26,840
Speaker 1: the lifeblood that conservatives and populace use to push back

44
00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:31,840
Speaker 1: against establishment figures, against the George Soros's, the Taylor swifts,

45
00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:35,160
Speaker 1: the billionaires, the tech for oligarch, the Wall Street money

46
00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:40,400
Speaker 1: that is what Republican campaigns need to be competitive comes

47
00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:44,519
Speaker 1: from small dollar donations that that we're going to see

48
00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:49,960
Speaker 1: that shrink substantially, as we did with email when Google

49
00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:54,400
Speaker 1: changed the way that you receive email, increasing the number

50
00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,960
Speaker 1: of campaign emails you were getting into your main box

51
00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:02,960
Speaker 1: versus your spam box. There were ways that campaigns worked

52
00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,839
Speaker 1: it so that way to prove I guess the authenticity

53
00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:07,720
Speaker 1: that they're not trying to scam you, they're not trying

54
00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:11,919
Speaker 1: to take your Social Security number. And fundraising emails still

55
00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:14,080
Speaker 1: manage to get your inbox, not all the time, and

56
00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,480
Speaker 1: fundraise email as a form of fundraising has decreased substantially,

57
00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,919
Speaker 1: but it still exists. It's still there. This way, I'm

58
00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:26,960
Speaker 1: not getting author like the messages seeing your inbox at all.

59
00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,720
Speaker 1: This will devastate the fundraising efforts on the part of

60
00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:34,519
Speaker 1: Republican campaigns. The NRSC sent an email saying that they

61
00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,760
Speaker 1: alone will lose about twenty five million dollars. And I've

62
00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:39,720
Speaker 1: heard that President Trump has been made aware of this.

63
00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,560
Speaker 1: It may affect his fund it will not make It

64
00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:47,440
Speaker 1: will absolutely affect his fundraising and his packs fundraising. And

65
00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,280
Speaker 1: this will affect certainly any Republican candidate that is running

66
00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:54,480
Speaker 1: for president. Again, the other area of campaign work that

67
00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,400
Speaker 1: it affects is the get out the vote effort, the

68
00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,920
Speaker 1: gootp operation, right, because it's their very hard to reach

69
00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,080
Speaker 1: low propensity voters. There's only so much time of the

70
00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,240
Speaker 1: day to door knock, there's only so many volunteers anyone has.

71
00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:11,240
Speaker 1: Text messaging. Text messaging has become one of the key

72
00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,680
Speaker 1: ways people reach voters because it's so cheap and they

73
00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,600
Speaker 1: have such high levels of people opening up the text messages. Right,

74
00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:21,080
Speaker 1: It costs about maybe a penny to two pennies per

75
00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,880
Speaker 1: text message to send out on a campaign. Anyone charging

76
00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,239
Speaker 1: more than two cents is probably ripping you off, FYI

77
00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:29,600
Speaker 1: if anyone's listening to this, but two two and a

78
00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,640
Speaker 1: half cents perfectly reasonable if you're going to the four

79
00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:35,919
Speaker 1: cents ranger being ripped off two and a half pennies though,

80
00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,040
Speaker 1: is it very very cheap cost to send to tens

81
00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,560
Speaker 1: of thousands of people to remind them, Hey, election day

82
00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,720
Speaker 1: is on Tuesday. It's you know, I'm the Canada, I'm

83
00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,920
Speaker 1: the Republican and the Democrat, the conservative running in this election.

84
00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:52,560
Speaker 1: Please vote for me without getting that, you know, having

85
00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:56,960
Speaker 1: that avenue to reach voters, even to send them your commercial,

86
00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:58,920
Speaker 1: because that's what candids do now too, they send them

87
00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,200
Speaker 1: their commercial. They're at They'm not just asking for money,

88
00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,000
Speaker 1: They're saying, this is who I am. Please consider voting

89
00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,600
Speaker 1: for me. You lose a key way to sit there

90
00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:09,480
Speaker 1: and reach voters. Think of it like this. When I

91
00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:14,400
Speaker 1: was working for Michael Bloomberg's campaign two thousand and nine,

92
00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,360
Speaker 1: this is his third term mayoral election. In two thousand

93
00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,599
Speaker 1: and nine, the rule on the Bloomberg campaign was you

94
00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,800
Speaker 1: had to touch your voter seven times. That means a

95
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,920
Speaker 1: text message, a robocall, a door knocker, a mailer or whatever.

96
00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,920
Speaker 1: A commercial. They had to see your name seven times

97
00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,160
Speaker 1: to know who you were and know you were running

98
00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,360
Speaker 1: for office. Now, the Bloomberg campaign had unlimited funds. He

99
00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:38,359
Speaker 1: was funding himself. I mean, we were able to do

100
00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,560
Speaker 1: whatever he wanted to do. That's not the case for

101
00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,480
Speaker 1: almost any campaign. There's very type budgets on these campaigns

102
00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,080
Speaker 1: to reach to vote, to reach voters, it's incredibly hard

103
00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,880
Speaker 1: and it's not the nineties and two thousands anymore where

104
00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:56,880
Speaker 1: you could just buy commercial time on the golden hour

105
00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,520
Speaker 1: of television, which is the hour between Jeopardy, Wheel of

106
00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,440
Speaker 1: Fortunate your local news. That's when most of the money

107
00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,240
Speaker 1: for all local news is being made for the TV

108
00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,640
Speaker 1: networks is being made and when you can maximalize the

109
00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:12,520
Speaker 1: number of people likely to vote in an election with commercials,

110
00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,760
Speaker 1: I mean those that time that hour does still matter.

111
00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:21,680
Speaker 1: But when people increasingly watching YouTube, TV, Hulu, you know,

112
00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:26,160
Speaker 1: all these other things rather than watching either basic television

113
00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:30,680
Speaker 1: or a cable, your way of reaching voters has to expand.

114
00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,400
Speaker 1: Because the media market has diversified so much. Texting is

115
00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,479
Speaker 1: a major part of that, whether we like it or not.

116
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:41,200
Speaker 1: Gutting that means low propensity voters are less likely to

117
00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,120
Speaker 1: ever hear about a Canada is running. Not everyone gets

118
00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:49,159
Speaker 1: the attention that you know a president does. They just don't.

119
00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:52,080
Speaker 1: Joe Rogan and Theobiana are not going to do PSA's

120
00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,480
Speaker 1: every special election, saying Joe Schmoe is running in South

121
00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:59,960
Speaker 1: Carolina's fifty third. You see, they rely on cheat methods

122
00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:05,239
Speaker 1: kids to get to voters, you know, mailboxes, inboxes, front doors, whatever,

123
00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,960
Speaker 1: that's just the nature of campaigning. Taking that away really

124
00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,840
Speaker 1: hurts conservatives more than Democrats, because we're the party of

125
00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,840
Speaker 1: lower pensity and working class voters. The last part that

126
00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,080
Speaker 1: I think that people should be aware of the political

127
00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:23,880
Speaker 1: industry that will hurt by this substantially is polling. People

128
00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,680
Speaker 1: don't have landlines anymore. You know, I really want a landline,

129
00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:28,960
Speaker 1: you know, me myself, I actually I would love to get

130
00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:32,320
Speaker 1: a landline, but I people do not have landlines. They

131
00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:36,920
Speaker 1: are relying increasingly on cell phones and especially texting. That

132
00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:39,200
Speaker 1: is a key form of how a lot of these

133
00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,600
Speaker 1: new polling companies are getting a hold of voters is

134
00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,080
Speaker 1: by texting them and saying would you like to participate

135
00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:48,000
Speaker 1: in that survey? It takes a lot of text and

136
00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:50,080
Speaker 1: a lot of effort to get respondents and then to

137
00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,520
Speaker 1: double check them and to figure out, you know, if

138
00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,040
Speaker 1: they're registered, what party they are, and YadA, YadA, YadA,

139
00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,480
Speaker 1: and wait the thing, wait the polling answers. All of

140
00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:00,560
Speaker 1: that takes a lot of time and a lot of effort,

141
00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:05,040
Speaker 1: and it's going to become way harder. All the good

142
00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:09,040
Speaker 1: new pulsters that Nail twenty twenty four all use this

143
00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:11,640
Speaker 1: as a method to sit there and to get a

144
00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,760
Speaker 1: hold of people. If that's taken out of the equation,

145
00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,720
Speaker 1: now polling will be so much more difficult, so much

146
00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,000
Speaker 1: more expensive, and probably a lot less accurate even than

147
00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,320
Speaker 1: it is currently, which is a big problem. I know

148
00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:27,320
Speaker 1: that these text mentors are annoying. I get it because

149
00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,320
Speaker 1: I'm annoyed by them. I mean, right the last November,

150
00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:31,840
Speaker 1: I was ready to throw my phone and said, well

151
00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:35,280
Speaker 1: I get it. I one hundred and ten percent get it.

152
00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:40,760
Speaker 1: But that is the way Americans communicate now. That is

153
00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,800
Speaker 1: the way to reach people. And when you were sitting

154
00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,080
Speaker 1: there and you were saying, I don't want them to

155
00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:50,240
Speaker 1: reach me in this way, guess who wings People who

156
00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:55,200
Speaker 1: control the airwaves, who dominate stuff in all the traditional methods,

157
00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:59,640
Speaker 1: in all the traditional ways, right, People who people who

158
00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:03,640
Speaker 1: are intel television all the time, the establishment news media's narratives.

159
00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:09,160
Speaker 1: People who can get on big podcasts and big television

160
00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:13,440
Speaker 1: shows and get those exclusives. Not many candidates can, not

161
00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:18,160
Speaker 1: every candidate can. I think it's worth remembering that. So

162
00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:21,360
Speaker 1: I know that the NRSCS word, I know the rnc's word.

163
00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:23,360
Speaker 1: I know the President Trump's team has heard about it

164
00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,200
Speaker 1: and they are concerned. Let's see if Apple goes through

165
00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:28,080
Speaker 1: with it or kind of changes it a little bit

166
00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,319
Speaker 1: to make sure that some people can get some messages across,

167
00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:34,160
Speaker 1: or even if it was an opt in feature that

168
00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,360
Speaker 1: you had to opt in that all the messages come through,

169
00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,480
Speaker 1: because let's say you don't want to have to, you know,

170
00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:40,760
Speaker 1: not get your uber notification of your ubers on its

171
00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:44,640
Speaker 1: way or whatever. I'm sure that they people would choose

172
00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,439
Speaker 1: not to opt in, not everybody. Some some would choose that,

173
00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,800
Speaker 1: but not everyone would choose never to opt in. So

174
00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,440
Speaker 1: we'll see the other thing that's gonna it's my pet

175
00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:55,120
Speaker 1: peeve that I want to talk about. I know I

176
00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,200
Speaker 1: sound very annoyed. I'm not really annoyed. It's just this

177
00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:59,880
Speaker 1: is a pet peep is that when I do the podcast,

178
00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:02,040
Speaker 1: the Monday Show, I have to tape it on Thursday

179
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:06,400
Speaker 1: or Friday. Well, polling sometimes comes up over the weekend

180
00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:08,200
Speaker 1: and I miss it for the Monday Show and I

181
00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:10,520
Speaker 1: like to present you guys with all the information I

182
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,880
Speaker 1: possibly can and That's what happened this weekend. The Wall

183
00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,400
Speaker 1: Street Journal had a poll by Fabreezi Elite. Now, for

184
00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:18,559
Speaker 1: those of you who are super student to politics, you've

185
00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:20,439
Speaker 1: heard the name for Breeza before. That is a band

186
00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:25,360
Speaker 1: named Tony Fabrizio. He is a polling legend. He has

187
00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,240
Speaker 1: been around for decades. He worked for Pappy Cannon and

188
00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,040
Speaker 1: Bob Dolean, Ram Paul and David Prividu and you know

189
00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,400
Speaker 1: you name him, He's worked for them, and he is

190
00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:38,160
Speaker 1: most notably President Trump's polster. I think that part of

191
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,080
Speaker 1: the reason that President Trump's team is so confident in

192
00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,840
Speaker 1: this last election is that his polling, which was dead on,

193
00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,880
Speaker 1: said no, you're going to win. I think they were

194
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:48,640
Speaker 1: concerned with a popular vote, but they were like, no,

195
00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,240
Speaker 1: the path of the lictoral college is very very clear.

196
00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:56,280
Speaker 1: I met Tony Fabrizio joined the JD. Vans campaign, and

197
00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:58,040
Speaker 1: I always been a big fan of his work. But

198
00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,840
Speaker 1: him as a person, he is, you know, or Italian

199
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,000
Speaker 1: like me from Queens, New York, a total paison and

200
00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,679
Speaker 1: it was like meeting somebody you always known, like we've

201
00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,839
Speaker 1: known each other forever. And he's a great guy. He's

202
00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,640
Speaker 1: a lot of fun, but he's also super bright at polling. Okay,

203
00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:18,680
Speaker 1: so Fabrizio Lee's poll is different than most of the

204
00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,320
Speaker 1: narratives you've seen from a lot of other polsters like Gallup.

205
00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:25,200
Speaker 1: First of all, Democrats are ahead in the generic ballot

206
00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:28,000
Speaker 1: in the twenty twenty sixth election by three points. They

207
00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,720
Speaker 1: leave forty six to forty three. Now, that is a

208
00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:33,160
Speaker 1: good number for Democrats. That's enough to win the House

209
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:36,079
Speaker 1: majority for sure, but that is not where they were

210
00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:40,560
Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen. Now. In twenty eighteen at this time,

211
00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:45,840
Speaker 1: Democrats le Republicans between six and fourteen points in the

212
00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:49,880
Speaker 1: generic ballot in most polling. So three is enough to

213
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,320
Speaker 1: win the five seats needed eight seats whatever, It is

214
00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,000
Speaker 1: not enough to win thirty fifty sixty seats. It's not

215
00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,360
Speaker 1: going to be the wave election as of right now

216
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:00,880
Speaker 1: that Democrats had in the past. And part of that

217
00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:05,720
Speaker 1: is that the Democratic brand is so far in the dirt.

218
00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:11,080
Speaker 1: Democrats have a negative thirty point rating right now. Republicans

219
00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:12,839
Speaker 1: have negative eleven. I mean something Iver said there and

220
00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:17,160
Speaker 1: we're dancing about, but negative thirty points is horrific. It's

221
00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,959
Speaker 1: the worst I have ever It's the worst not only

222
00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:21,679
Speaker 1: I've ive ever seen it's the worst ever taken by

223
00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:27,040
Speaker 1: Tony Fabrizio and at the Thriezo Leepole that is absolute

224
00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,640
Speaker 1: gutto trash and basically all you are is just the

225
00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:35,480
Speaker 1: default non presidential ticket, and that's why they're going to

226
00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,520
Speaker 1: support you if you're going to win this election. Now,

227
00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:41,320
Speaker 1: for President Trump, his ratings were not that bad. He

228
00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,640
Speaker 1: had a forty six percent approval rating fifty two percent

229
00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:48,120
Speaker 1: disapproval rating. For President Trump, that's pretty good. Forty six

230
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,600
Speaker 1: to fifty two is pretty good for him historically, definitely

231
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:54,240
Speaker 1: better than his first term. His strongest issue remains immigration,

232
00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 1: especially when it comes to the border, and he's done

233
00:12:56,160 --> 00:13:02,160
Speaker 1: a phenomenal job, so that's easily understandable. Economy and inflation, though,

234
00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:05,640
Speaker 1: is where voters are continued to worry. Now they've gotten

235
00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:10,480
Speaker 1: a little bit more optimistic since all the conversations of

236
00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,800
Speaker 1: recession and depression have kind of subsided, but on the

237
00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,880
Speaker 1: issues of inflation and tariffs, they remain worried. And I

238
00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:22,320
Speaker 1: think part of it is that they are worried obviously

239
00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,840
Speaker 1: that the arriffs are going to increase costs to them.

240
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:29,600
Speaker 1: But we are still dealing with the aftermath of Biden inflation,

241
00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:33,559
Speaker 1: where inflation was outpacing wages, not for everything. I mean,

242
00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,120
Speaker 1: prices for eggs have come down and gas have come down,

243
00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:40,520
Speaker 1: but the overall average has not come down to like

244
00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:44,360
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen levels where when he was president last time.

245
00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:49,160
Speaker 1: It's going to take several years of wages outpacing inflation

246
00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,400
Speaker 1: to get to the power, to getting into a purchasing

247
00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:56,520
Speaker 1: power that voters feel comfortable with. And until that happens,

248
00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,200
Speaker 1: they're going to blame who's ever in office for doing it.

249
00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,000
Speaker 1: So right now President Trump is earning a lot of

250
00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:07,280
Speaker 1: that blame. It's just the way the politics works. I

251
00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,840
Speaker 1: think that the other I think it's a breath of

252
00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:12,480
Speaker 1: fresh air for President Trump, though being down negative six

253
00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:15,160
Speaker 1: is not terrible. If things pick up. Though, if things

254
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:19,200
Speaker 1: get better, it's going to be in a place where

255
00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 1: maybe Republicans and Democrats go into this election in a

256
00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,320
Speaker 1: tide place. And in that case, I think, especially with

257
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:29,640
Speaker 1: people redistricting in states redistricting, the House, becomes a question

258
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:34,080
Speaker 1: of whether Democrats win it or not. The Senate, there's

259
00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,080
Speaker 1: really no path for the Democrats to win in this

260
00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,920
Speaker 1: election cycle. It becomes it's almost impossible right now, it

261
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:43,560
Speaker 1: becomes virtually impossible in a situation where Democrats are only

262
00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:47,600
Speaker 1: my three points or are tied. Let's start with Democrats

263
00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:50,960
Speaker 1: and their poll. Recently, a Data for Progress poll asked

264
00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,320
Speaker 1: New York City Democrats of their favorable unfavorable opinion of

265
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,560
Speaker 1: several prominent Democratic leaders, and guess who is the most popular.

266
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,440
Speaker 1: It's not the Obama's or the Clintons, or the Bidens

267
00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:05,880
Speaker 1: or Kamala Harris. The most popular Democrat too Democrat voters

268
00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:08,960
Speaker 1: in New York City is Bernie Sanders. He has a

269
00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:13,440
Speaker 1: plus sixty two point favorability rating. AOC is right behind

270
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:18,800
Speaker 1: him with sixty points. Zoram Mandani has plus forty two points.

271
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,440
Speaker 1: Mandani is more popular than Governor Kathy Hogel, Minority Leader

272
00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:28,880
Speaker 1: Hakim Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, or Andrew Cuomo. Nearly

273
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:31,640
Speaker 1: half of Democrat voters in New York City said they

274
00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,560
Speaker 1: are swayed by Mandanni because he's a fierce critic of

275
00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,800
Speaker 1: Israel and sixty two percent of Democrats who want federal

276
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:42,120
Speaker 1: government to reduce their support of Israel. Sixty six percent

277
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,800
Speaker 1: of Democrats in New York City so their sympathies lie

278
00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:48,320
Speaker 1: with Palestine now with Israel and a majority of Democrats

279
00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:50,720
Speaker 1: that they are going to support candidates that favor reducing

280
00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,840
Speaker 1: foreign aid to Israel. Obviously, Israel isn't the only motivating

281
00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:58,520
Speaker 1: factor in this election or any election, but it says

282
00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,240
Speaker 1: a lot about where the Democrat Cretit Party is moving

283
00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:06,440
Speaker 1: and the place that they are, because there's things to

284
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,320
Speaker 1: criticize Israel Overly, there's things to criticize every country. Where

285
00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:13,120
Speaker 1: you can criticize Mongolia, you can criticize anybody. Right. There

286
00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:19,240
Speaker 1: is an element, though, of the criticism towards Israel rooted

287
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 1: in anti yes, anti Zionism, and anti Semitism. But what

288
00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,760
Speaker 1: I pick up on is the routiness in anti whiteness,

289
00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:35,560
Speaker 1: the viewpoint by the far left to view everything as

290
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:40,640
Speaker 1: a fight between the oppressors and the oppressed, and that

291
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:42,800
Speaker 1: is a lot to do with racial identity. So because

292
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:45,880
Speaker 1: the Jews in Israel are perceived to be whiter than

293
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:50,400
Speaker 1: the Palestinians, they are the oppressors and the Palestinians are

294
00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 1: the oppressed, and everything is view to that lends capitalism

295
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 1: and America and race relations in America, policing, everything is

296
00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:03,840
Speaker 1: viewed with that lens, and the Democratic Party has adopted

297
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:07,040
Speaker 1: that mentality as being far left. And I think that

298
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,199
Speaker 1: if you are Hakeem Jeffries or Jack Schumer or Kirsten

299
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,800
Speaker 1: Jellibrand or Kathy Hochel, and you're looking at your base

300
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,880
Speaker 1: of your party and how they are responding, it's going

301
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,000
Speaker 1: to be adapt or watch your political career die. My

302
00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,520
Speaker 1: guest this week is a super smart data analysis who's

303
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,960
Speaker 1: seen the emerging trends in both the Trump Republican Party

304
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,359
Speaker 1: and the far left coalitions of the Democratic Party, and

305
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,200
Speaker 1: he's going to tell us what he sees. Coming up next.

306
00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:37,360
Speaker 1: Stay tuned with me on today's episode is Zachary Dnini.

307
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,920
Speaker 1: He is a data analyst and for data scientists from

308
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,040
Speaker 1: Yale Polling. Zachary, thank you for being here.

309
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,120
Speaker 2: Thank you very much for having me on.

310
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:47,520
Speaker 1: So there were two polls that recently come out. There

311
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,440
Speaker 1: was the Fabrizio Leape poll which looked at national trends,

312
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,200
Speaker 1: which showed Trump at a decent spot, a negative six

313
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,520
Speaker 1: percent overall, but forty six to fifty two, which was

314
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,400
Speaker 1: for Trump, it's pretty good. And then there was another

315
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 1: poll from Data for Progress that analyzed and looked at

316
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:07,120
Speaker 1: which Democrats had the highest name appeal from especially new

317
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,879
Speaker 1: York City Democrats, which are probably more progressive than the

318
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,720
Speaker 1: average Democratic voter, but they're not that strong of an outlier.

319
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say they're probably so the right of Portland,

320
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:22,080
Speaker 1: but to like the leath of let South Carolina. There

321
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:27,000
Speaker 1: was a narrative after the Mendanni primary that Mendanni and

322
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,840
Speaker 1: Trump voters were a lot alike, or that there was

323
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,360
Speaker 1: some overlap in the vote. Is that anything you noticed

324
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,359
Speaker 1: in the data? Is that provable at all? Or is

325
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:37,879
Speaker 1: that just a narrative because there were a lot of

326
00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,360
Speaker 1: minorities and young people in both coalitions.

327
00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think a lot of the people demographically

328
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,560
Speaker 2: who have shifted towards Trump from Biden from twenty twenty

329
00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,760
Speaker 2: to twenty twenty four and who voted for Mom Donnie

330
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,720
Speaker 2: are similar in the sense that they are young. Right,

331
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 2: the Trump did as well as a GOP candidate has

332
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 2: done with young voters as we've seen in decades, and

333
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 2: Mom Donnie's win was first and foremost fueled by young voters.

334
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,720
Speaker 2: What I would say is so. Nate Cone at the

335
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 2: New York Times did some great voter role analysis from

336
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,760
Speaker 2: his poll matching to the voter file. His determination was

337
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 2: that only six percent of voters in the New York

338
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,439
Speaker 2: City Democratic mayor primary voted for said they voted for Trump,

339
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 2: and my analysis about a third of those are Orthodox

340
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 2: Jews alone, which Cuoma won by by massive margins over

341
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,560
Speaker 2: Mom Donnie. So we're talking about only one in twenty

342
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,640
Speaker 2: five voters in that in the Democratic primary election being

343
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:45,000
Speaker 2: Trump voters. Did Mom Donnie do well with those Trump voters?

344
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 2: Maybe he did. He did well in you know, Asian

345
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 2: and Hispanic areas that are registered DEM and shifted towards

346
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,760
Speaker 2: Trump in twenty twenty four, but there aren't that many

347
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:57,680
Speaker 2: of them, So if he did well, it was at

348
00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,439
Speaker 2: a small scale and it didn't contribute that much to

349
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:01,480
Speaker 2: his overall victory.

350
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 1: When you look at the Trump's margins and how the

351
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 1: Republican Party under him has changed, he presented I think

352
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: a graph of like what regions had shifted to the

353
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:16,120
Speaker 1: right left, and there was immense right wing shift in

354
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 1: like southern California and New York City. How and tons

355
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 1: of like blue specs in suburban and even rural areas,

356
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 1: especially outside of Atlanta, for example. How how does the

357
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 1: GOP coalition look differently than it did in twenty twelve?

358
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 1: Is it just would have happened no matter what, because

359
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 1: you know it has changed among other right wing parties

360
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 1: in Europe. Let's say, whatever, is it inevitable or is

361
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:47,719
Speaker 1: it really a Trump thing? How does it look different?

362
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 2: So, first of all, I think Trump definitely has a

363
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 2: unique appeal, especially from a turnout standpoint, to work in

364
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,639
Speaker 2: class Republican base voters. The Republican base lapped the Democratic

365
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 2: base twenty twenty four. You know, if Trump was on

366
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 2: the ballot again in twenty twenty eight, I think would

367
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 2: be the same way. With Trump off the ballot, who

368
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 2: knows it depends, it will be a new dynamic. But

369
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 2: that being said, I do think there's a little bit

370
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 2: of inevitability here in this sense. So Hispanic voters shifted

371
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 2: from sixty five percent Biden to fifty four percent Harris

372
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,679
Speaker 2: according to my estimates, that's a huge shift. And that

373
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 2: shift was concentrated with people who self identify as either

374
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 2: moderate or conservative. And like a lot of people say, oh,

375
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,160
Speaker 2: you know, Hispanic and black voters, they're getting way more

376
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 2: conservative recently, high and I say, well, they're getting way

377
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 2: more Republican. But the self idea, ideology stuff is not

378
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 2: changing that much. So For example, this is CCCS cooperative

379
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 2: election study data from Harvard. Forty five percent of black

380
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 2: people who I self identify as moderate who are eighteen

381
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 2: to twenty nine won those the young black moderates by

382
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,160
Speaker 2: forty five points. Harris won black moderates who are sixty

383
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 2: five years or older by ninety three points. So what

384
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 2: we're seeing is a lot of people who voted for

385
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 2: Biden are moderate or conservative, are people of color. And

386
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 2: then flip the Trump and then we're also seeing generational

387
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 2: churn where young, moderate and conservative non white voters are

388
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 2: more open to voting for the Republican Party than their

389
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 2: elders who are literally dying off. Because we get the

390
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 2: generational churn every election.

391
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 1: Right right, And that I think is you know, a

392
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: while ago, I would say maybe the twenty sixteen. Every

393
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 1: time working in Republican politics, you'd always hear what we're

394
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 1: going to focus on. We're going to focus on the

395
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 1: black voter. And back in twenty twelve, you probably were

396
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 1: like a kid. There was this big who has this

397
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 1: big emphasis on trying to push a gay marriage initiative

398
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 1: in North Carolina because an anti game marriage in a

399
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 1: ship of North Carolina. Because they were going to turn

400
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 1: the black vote out, and the Black vote is against

401
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: game marriage, and they'll vote against the Democrats. And I

402
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:08,959
Speaker 1: believe it was twenty twelve, I'm pretty sure I was,

403
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: and it they voted against gay marriage, and then they

404
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 1: voted for Barack Obama. And I said to people, you

405
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: are going to have to wait for a generational change

406
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: and to even make the smallest impact, because there's just

407
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,479
Speaker 1: no way I guess that general change has just happened.

408
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: When I'm going to break down the vote by three ways,

409
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: the Asian vote's too hard to sit there and try

410
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 1: to I forget because it's not that many of them.

411
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: But if you look at first of all, the black vote,

412
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 1: is there any area of the country that it really

413
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 1: didn't move like that there was a thing that changed so.

414
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 2: Throughout the entire country, my estimates have going from eighty

415
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 2: six percent Biden, sorry, eighty nine percent Biden to eighty

416
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 2: six percent Harris. That's definitely a slight change. That's roughly

417
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: by as much as that the country change as a whole.

418
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 2: So it's not even that black voters shifted more than

419
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 2: the country. And right now it appears that black voters

420
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 2: in northern Inner cities, and I use the term inner

421
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 2: city to specifically note these are the black voters who

422
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 2: live in precincts with the highest poverty rates and and

423
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 2: you know, bottom tenth income in the country. And then

424
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 2: and then the South, those those black voters moved a

425
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 2: little bit less. Black voters that lived in the suburbs

426
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 2: or in less black areas trended more to the right

427
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 2: towards Trump. For instance. I think you know, there's actually

428
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,400
Speaker 2: a lot of state by state variation in the black vote.

429
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: I have Harris still winning ninety four percent of the

430
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: black vote in Maryland in twenty twenty four, versus only

431
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 2: eighty six in the countries.

432
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: All so you're saying, wait, so you're saying the less

433
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,479
Speaker 1: the more that they lived in mixed race communities, they

434
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 1: were more likely to vote. Yes, that's interesting because you

435
00:24:56,160 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: said that that's the opposite of white voters white voters communities.

436
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 1: Is it, and I'm not trying to put words with

437
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 1: is it? Is it that people assume the political identity

438
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:09,959
Speaker 1: of their neighbors more often?

439
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you know. I'm not a sociologist, but

440
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 2: what I can say is, I think most analysts agree that,

441
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 2: you know, to put it in a sentence. Black voters

442
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 2: are moving away from the Democratic Party because local institutions

443
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,159
Speaker 2: are breaking down, such as like the Black Church, and

444
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 2: there's social media. So if I'm a black Conservative, I'm

445
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,919
Speaker 2: more exposed to other black conservatives, and you know, that

446
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 2: will facilitate, you know, the growth of more black conservatives

447
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 2: because in the long term, it's unlikely a group stays

448
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,679
Speaker 2: ninety five to five as we're just becoming such a

449
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 2: you know, connected country.

450
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 1: And now education is a not a bigger political indicator

451
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: than races, but it is exactly as profound. Well among

452
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: the white vote, you marketing very interesting. You said the

453
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 1: only places that there was a sizeable ship to the

454
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 1: laft among white voters were places like Alaska, north of

455
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: carob New Mexico, rather Georgia and the areas around Washington, DC.

456
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: And you said the only linkage to keeping what some

457
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 1: white voters Democrat was federal job federal employees. Is that right?

458
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think so there were there were two groups

459
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,239
Speaker 2: of white voters who who shifted left. So one is

460
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 2: just Anglo Saxon, upper middle class suburban voters. So think

461
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: about the suburbs of Milwaukee, the suburbs of Columbus. These

462
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 2: voters that were up in upper middle class suburbs in

463
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 2: the northeast, who where Irish, Italian, even Jewish, shifted towards

464
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 2: Trump pretty substantially.

465
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 1: But even Maschusett Yeah, yeah, exactly, Communists again, it's wing, Yeah,

466
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: traditionally progress they had a substantial seven point I think

467
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: swing towards Trump.

468
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. I think you get a lot of in

469
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 2: western mass you get those old mining areas. One of

470
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 2: my favorite, like very specific anecdotes from the twenty twenty

471
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 2: four election is there's this town in Montana called Butte,

472
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 2: which is in Irish mining town. So it's in the

473
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 2: middle of the country where there are very few Irish,

474
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 2: Italian Portuguese people. You get this one Irish mining town

475
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 2: that is the biggest trend to the right out of

476
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 2: any you know, similarly sized town in Montana. Sorry, but

477
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 2: to get back to the original point, Yeah, we have

478
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 2: the Anglo Saxon suburban nights around you know, Columbus, Indianapolis, Milwaukee,

479
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 2: but that's not that many people, right, It's a pretty

480
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 2: narrow band of suburbs and excerpts. When we're talking about

481
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 2: the country as a whole, and then you have federal

482
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: employees New Mexico, Alaska, and Northern Virginia. And I think

483
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,959
Speaker 2: for this November, for people interested in Virginia politics, it's

484
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 2: pretty notable, you know, with with dojan and government cuts.

485
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 2: That's probably one reason span Burger seems to be in

486
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 2: such a strong position right now.

487
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think what was I think twenty five thousand

488
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: federal jobs have been cut. I might be wrong in

489
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: the action number, but it's in the ends of persons,

490
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: all right. Then I guess the last point, and the

491
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 1: key point would be the Latino vogue, because that's the

492
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 1: one that everyone would whispering it could happen, It could

493
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 1: happen than it did happen. Were there?

494
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 2: Is it?

495
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 1: The same with black voters, is that they're not becoming

496
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 1: more conservative, they're just becoming more Republican.

497
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think there's evidence Latino voters are becoming a

498
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,640
Speaker 2: little bit more conservative. So I don't want to attribute

499
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 2: it to one hundred percent, you know, moderate and conservative

500
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 2: voters voting for Trump more controlling for the identity. But yeah,

501
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,880
Speaker 2: another good fact is so, yeah, eighteen to forty four

502
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 2: Hispanic moderates where Harris plus twenty two forty five plus

503
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 2: Hispanic moderates where Harris plus forty two, Right, you get

504
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 2: this twenty point gap just with the with the two

505
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 2: different generations. And specifically there's the young men, young Latino men,

506
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 2: even you know, young black men, young Asian men. The

507
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 2: David Shore from Blue Rovers Research estimates that Trump won

508
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: the majority of non white eighteen year old men in

509
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 2: the country, which is a pretty crazy stat if you

510
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 2: would have heard it eight to twelve years ago. So yeah,

511
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 2: you're again just getting young. Young Hispanic men are significantly

512
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,760
Speaker 2: more conservative than older Hispanic men. But yeah, even controlling

513
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: for that, you know, young Hispanics feel more open to

514
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: vote for Trump and vote for Republicans, uh than Yeah,

515
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 2: they're they're older, modern counterparts. And I would I don't

516
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 2: comment on whether you know things are good or bad

517
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 2: normatively a lot as a you know, nonpartisan analyst, but

518
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 2: I think the vast majority of America would agree that

519
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 2: ideological polarization is good. It's you know, it's good to

520
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 2: live in a country where conservatives want to vote for

521
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 2: the conservative party, liberals want to vote for the generally

522
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 2: liberal party. Right, So so this is this is kind

523
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 2: of like nice to see in a way that ideology

524
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 2: is just becoming very predictive with both choices.

525
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: What I find very interesting about the Latino change, even

526
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: more than the Black change, is that in areas of

527
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 1: the country where there was really no Trump campaign, Like

528
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: Trump wasn't campaigning in Chicago or Los Angeles. He made

529
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: one rally event at the Bronx, but he wasn't campaigning

530
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 1: in the Bronx. There was no like door knockers or

531
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: what or commercials being run. That's where you saw the

532
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 1: most significant shift because the change was all organic looking.

533
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:20,959
Speaker 1: And I know you don't have a crystal balls. I'm

534
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: not saying you are. Do these kinds of changes though,

535
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: look predictive that they are continuing or is it a

536
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 1: Trump thing or is it a thing? Like is it

537
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: just what's moving?

538
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so hard to know. One one piece of

539
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 2: evidence that makes me think it's not a Trump thing,

540
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: but this will stick would be looking at other elections,

541
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 2: like you know, for instance, Canada in the UK, where

542
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 2: non white voters are also trending, you know, towards the

543
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 2: Conservative Party in that country. You saw it in a

544
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 2: lot of like the Asian Canadian suburbs. So you know,

545
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 2: we like to think we're you know, special at America.

546
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 2: I spend ninety eight percent of my time analyzing American politics.

547
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 2: But the kind of two big trends of twenty twenty

548
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 2: four were young men broke really hard for the Republican

549
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 2: Party and Hispanics and Asians, non white voters broke really

550
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 2: hard for the Republican Party. You see that former trend

551
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 2: young men breaking hard in South Korea, Germany, UK. You

552
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: see the latter trend in you know, diversified Western elections

553
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 2: recently like UK, Canada, and US all the same. So

554
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 2: that makes me think it will stick some. But then

555
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 2: I guess quickly the counter argument would be, you know,

556
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four, Democrats did better down ballot with

557
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 2: Asian and Hispanic voters, and they did at the top

558
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 2: of the ballot, so that that would that would be

559
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 2: the count of right.

560
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: I was thinking of that. I mean, like Ted Cruise

561
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: did worse in the Mexico Texas border than Trump did,

562
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: but he did better than he did six years prior. Yeah, yeah,

563
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: so maybe, yeah, I don't know, I go back and

564
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: forth than that. So let's look at the progressive vote

565
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 1: for a second. How And I guess New York City

566
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 1: is not a perfect microcosm of the Democratic Party, but

567
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: is what we have right now? Yeah, I guess you

568
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 1: could look at the New Jersey governor's race too, because

569
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 1: it is a good microcosm as well. What are you?

570
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,719
Speaker 1: What are we seeing? As far as how the Democrats

571
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,800
Speaker 1: are transforming, There's obviously a bigger appeal amongst seniors. As

572
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 1: I always sell, People always ask me, like, why are

573
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 1: seniors going so far left? I say, because the seniors

574
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: in your head that you're thinking of, where seniors are

575
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 1: probably dead by now. This is a very old reference,

576
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: but I don't know if you'll know, like the all

577
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 1: in the family reference of like Archie Bunker is dead now,

578
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: but Meadhead is a senior citizen. Like that kind of transformation,

579
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 1: generational transformation happened. So like Henry Fond is dead, but

580
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: Jane Fond is a senior. So the progressive activists of

581
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 1: the sixties are seventy five. The The interesting thing about

582
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: that group of like older maybe progressive people being such

583
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 1: a comminant part of the Democratic Party and them losing

584
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 1: so many working class voters is that what's partially fueling

585
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 1: the far left movement is the ones who are left.

586
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 2: Over exactly exactly, going back to the first thing we

587
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 2: talked about here with how Momdani did well in majority

588
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 2: Asian and Hispanic areas that shifted to Trump. Yet you know,

589
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 2: New York Times Nate Cone has only five percent of

590
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,160
Speaker 2: the turnout actually being Trump voters. What you're getting is

591
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 2: the base of voters that anchors Democrats in kind of

592
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 2: like moderate center left neoliberal candidates. Is usually has historically

593
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 2: been conservative Asian, Hispanic and Black voters and moderate Asian

594
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: Hispanic and Black voters who still vote in Democratic primaries,

595
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 2: and the moderate block voters are still there right all

596
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 2: in all, in twenty twenty four, they stuck around well,

597
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 2: especially in cities in New York where you're getting more

598
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 2: and more Asian and Hispanic vote versus Black vote. The

599
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 2: moderate and conservative Asian and Hispanics left the party in

600
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 2: twenty four basically probably for good, right, because I don't

601
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 2: think anyone thinks that it's a sustainable strategy for Democrats

602
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 2: to win sixty percent of self id and conservative Hispanics

603
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 2: in the future, and.

604
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:18,879
Speaker 1: That happened in sixteen, and yeah, I'm.

605
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe not sixty percent.

606
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,800
Speaker 1: I would have a reference point though, like, oh, this

607
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 1: this was how long ago that they were winning.

608
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 2: Sixty exactly, and yeah, probably wasn't quite sixty, but you know,

609
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 2: it was getting around there. And yeah, so now that

610
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,800
Speaker 2: those voters are gone, they're not anchoring the party anymore,

611
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 2: and like the Democrats are kind of stuck between a

612
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 2: rock and a hard place. This there's this Wall Street

613
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 2: Journal poll that had Democrats at thirty three percent favorable,

614
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 2: Democratic parties thirty three percent favorable, which got a lot

615
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 2: of press. The part of that poll I thought was

616
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 2: even more interesting is that sixty percent of Americans say

617
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 2: Democrats have moved too far left. Which, you know, if

618
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 2: you're trying to get fifty percent of the vote for Democrats,

619
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 2: you need to convince one in six people who think

620
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 2: Democrats have moved too far left to vote for you.

621
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 2: On the other side, you have you know, democrats or

622
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 2: i should say progressives who have proven they're not afraid

623
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 2: to not vote for the presidential candidate. About My estimate

624
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 2: is one in two hundred voters would have voted for

625
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 2: Harris and Democrats but didn't because of Gaza. That's like,

626
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,760
Speaker 2: you know, that's a Senate seat in Pennsylvania that's halfway

627
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:30,959
Speaker 2: to the tipping point of the House.

628
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: You know, it's like, that's not what is that as

629
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: a percentage point five point five percent percentage? Okay, yeah,

630
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 1: half a percent? Yeah, so that was failing. Frantic people

631
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 1: like that.

632
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I should do it to half a percent.

633
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 2: So I get that from polling and then kind of

634
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 2: you know, if you do some rough assumptions with the

635
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 2: New York City mayor race, you can get about that

636
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 2: one percent of people didn't vote for Harris in twenty

637
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 2: twenty four and then voted for Momdani in the primary,

638
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,799
Speaker 2: which you know, as we said, we assume New York

639
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 2: City would be overrepresented there. But either way you're you're getting. Yeah,

640
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 2: you're getting the you know, sixty percent of people think

641
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 2: Democrats have moved too far left, and then you're getting

642
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 2: the current energy and success and turnout in the Democratic

643
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 2: Party being on the last wanting to pull the party.

644
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 1: As the Democrats become increasingly more progressive and Republicans become

645
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:37,240
Speaker 1: like this mishmash of working class voters. Where do moderates

646
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 1: find themselves?

647
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, some gallup pulling recently is that thirty seven percent

648
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 2: of the country's moderate, thirty six percent conservative, twenty five

649
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 2: percent liberal right. So you get the thirty six conservative

650
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 2: twenty five liberal. It's been pretty consistent over the past

651
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 2: couple decades. This because Democrats aren't winning conservative minorities anymore.

652
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 2: They need to win the lines share of moderates or

653
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,839
Speaker 2: they need an extreme dominating turnout advantage from their base. Right,

654
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 2: there's basically two options. Third option is that maybe you

655
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:11,800
Speaker 2: could argue a you know, left wing candidate like AOC

656
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 2: could also do really well with working class moderate you know,

657
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 2: Hispanics and Asian people. But overall, Democrats are going to

658
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 2: have to be winning the majority of moderates at a minimum,

659
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 2: ideally more like sixty to seventy percent for them. So

660
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 2: I think what that means is Democrats are going to

661
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 2: be you know, taking losses if they if they don't

662
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 2: win moderates. Right, the median voter theorem a view of politics,

663
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 2: is backed a lot. I think there's some good split

664
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: ticket data from Lukshaia Jann twenty twenty four about how

665
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 2: moderate Democratic House candidates ran better. There's always you know,

666
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 2: a fight in the party between the kind of moderate

667
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 2: popularist wing and the you know, progressive wing, And the

668
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 2: reality is that there's just more evidence recently that the

669
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:05,320
Speaker 2: moderate populist wing to win elections. The exception to that

670
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 2: is in maybe lower turnout elections like you know, mid

671
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 2: terms or off cycle elections, that that turnout edge can

672
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 2: get really dominating for Democrats, and many progressive Democrats would

673
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 2: say that their candidates can incite that enthusiasm and get

674
00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 2: that turnout edge for them.

675
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 1: So is is an AOC or an AOC style candidate

676
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: being the Democratic nomine eventually inevitable? Though with that kind

677
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 1: of equation in the.

678
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 2: Mix, I think it's it's getting close to to inevitable

679
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 2: in the sense that the all of the excitement and

680
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 2: enthusiasm and the Democratic Party right now is you know,

681
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:42,760
Speaker 2: from the left and from that wing of the party.

682
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 2: I also think just in the near future for twenty

683
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 2: twenty eight, there will be a lot of different candidates

684
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 2: fighting over the you know, moderate wing. There could just

685
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 2: be one candidate AOC who immediately gets you know, the

686
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 2: progressive lane to herself, which is which is always an

687
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 2: advantage to coalesce sooner in a primary. How effective that

688
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 2: general election campaign will be, I have no idea. I

689
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 2: think it's completely feasible that AOC could do better with

690
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 2: you know, Hispanic moderates because a lot of people's ideology

691
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 2: isn't as strict as you know. I like to think

692
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: about it, you know, like here's a line and on

693
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 2: one side super conservative, one side super liberal. Some people

694
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 2: vote based on vibes and stuff.

695
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:29,360
Speaker 1: That true? All right, Zachi? Where can people go to

696
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 1: read more of your analysis? I think your stuff so

697
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 1: interesting and worth looking at.

698
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 2: You can find me on Twitter at Zachary Danini, d

699
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 2: O N and I and I and then I also

700
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 2: have a substack at Zacharydanini dot com. I write on

701
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:46,320
Speaker 2: a little less, but if I have even more thoughts

702
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 2: than usual and I can't put all of them onto

703
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 2: my Twitter, you know you'll get some articles.

704
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 1: Well, Zachary, thank you for being this podcast. I really

705
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: appreciate it.

706
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me on.

707
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,280
Speaker 1: You're listening to It's a Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowsky.

708
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 1: We'll be right back after this message. Now it's time

709
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 1: for the Ask Me Anything segment of the show. If

710
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,280
Speaker 1: you want to be part of the Ask Me Anything,

711
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,839
Speaker 1: email me Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's

712
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: ryanat Numbers Game podcast dot com. I read all your emails.

713
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 1: I really appreciate them. I'm not just saying that, Like,

714
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 1: I really do love getting these emails in the ad.

715
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 1: I think an important part to the show, so please

716
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,839
Speaker 1: email me. The first one comes from Peter FuMO. He writes, Ryan,

717
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 1: my wife and I have a share a timeshare every

718
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 1: odds summer in Vermont. Two years ago I saw BLM scigns.

719
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 1: This year I actually saw Trump signs. I know it's anecdotal,

720
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 1: but is there any movement from to the right in

721
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:45,280
Speaker 1: very blue Vermont? Vermont? Peter, Great, Sorry, Peter, great question.

722
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to edit that out. I mean whatever, Peter,

723
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,320
Speaker 1: great question about Vermont. I also love Vermont. I vacation

724
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:54,320
Speaker 1: Vermont every single year. I go to Woodstock, I go

725
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 1: to mom Pelly. I love Vermont. It's an amazing state. Beautiful, beautiful, beautiful.

726
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 1: So highly recommend any going there. If they have not,

727
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 1: here's them at Vermont. There was a shift to the

728
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 1: right from twenty twenty to twenty twenty four. Trump gained

729
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 1: about a point and a half a little more than

730
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:12,839
Speaker 1: a point and a half, one point six percent, while

731
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 1: Kama lost about the same thing, maybe two and a

732
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,759
Speaker 1: half points. I guess the number went to independence and

733
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 1: he did flip a county. He flipped, one of the

734
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 1: northern counties of Vermont that borders Canada. That being said,

735
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 1: he only got thirty two percent of the vote, though

736
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: he got one hundred and nineteen thousand votes overall, I

737
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 1: think like six five hundred voters shifted to Trump. That's

738
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 1: not that many, right. It was a shift, wasn't a

739
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:40,840
Speaker 1: big ship. It was lower than the shift nationwide. So

740
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 1: now you're not seeing a shift towards Trump. You may

741
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,839
Speaker 1: have seen more vocal Trump supporters, and I've seen Trump

742
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: flags in Vermont, but that's not what you're seeing really there.

743
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 1: The shift in Vermont towards Republicans, though, did happen because

744
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: of Governor Phil Scott. Now, Governor Phil Scott is a

745
00:41:56,680 --> 00:42:00,280
Speaker 1: liberal Republican, there's no doubting that, But unlike so many

746
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 1: other Republicans governors of blue states, he actually campaigned for

747
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 1: Republicans running down ballot. First, he flipped the lieutenant governor's

748
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 1: race was his seat. Rather in Vermont, like in a

749
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 1: few other states, the lieutenant governor and governor runs separately

750
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 1: from each other, So he flipped the lieutenant governor seat.

751
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 1: John Rogers is now the new Republican Lieutenant governor. He's

752
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 1: the first Republican lieutenant governor that had a Republican governor

753
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 1: since twenty ten, so that's a big deal. But he

754
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:31,840
Speaker 1: campaigned down ballot and he broke the Republicans, sorry, the

755
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 1: Democrats supermajority in the state Senate. Democrats went from having

756
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 1: twenty two seats to having sixteen and Republicans were from

757
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 1: having thirteen sorry, from seven to thirteen. So he gained

758
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 1: six Senate seats for Republicans, almost winning the majority, only

759
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 1: was down by three seats. And in the state legislature,

760
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 1: he gained nineteen Republican State House seats. Vermont has a

761
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 1: ton of state House seats for such a small state,

762
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 1: but so nineteen state House seats, six state Senate seats,

763
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 1: and a statewide elected office, that being a lieutenant governor's seat.

764
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 1: So Phil Scott did make the state go right and

765
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 1: Republicans have more of a footprint there than they've had

766
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: in a very very long time. So if you're seeing

767
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:13,879
Speaker 1: anything any trends in Vermont, it's Phil Scott voters. It's

768
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 1: not really President Trump voters, but anyway, that's it Levermont.

769
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Austin Bull. He says Hey, Ryan,

770
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 1: big fan of your podcast and enjoy geeking out over

771
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 1: the numbers. You do a great job of cutting through

772
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 1: the numbers and helping a regular guy like myself understand

773
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 1: the bigger picture. My question is on popular governors choosing

774
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 1: to run or not run for Senate seats. It seems

775
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 1: Democrats to do a much better job again their guys

776
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: to run Hick and Looper or Cooper, et cetera. Republicans

777
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 1: continually miss out in recruitments camp jucy SONUNU now that

778
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 1: the biggest fan of Larry Hogan, but at least he

779
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 1: got into the fight and tried in Maryland. Do you

780
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 1: think that they think that he can be president? Or

781
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: do damages do a better job of bulling their guys

782
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 1: to run. Also, curious everything young kin is saving for

783
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 1: a twenty eight run or he might be luck in

784
00:43:58,400 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 1: the Senate seat in twenty twenty, I guess twenty thirty,

785
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 1: or run for governor again in twenty nine. Love to

786
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:08,840
Speaker 1: hear your thoughts. Austin. Okay, So, Austin, great question. I

787
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 1: think that it's a mixed back right. Larry Hogan definitely

788
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 1: bit the bullet. He knew he was gonna have a

789
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 1: tough time running, and I respect Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan

790
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,959
Speaker 1: was a Republican governor of a Democratic state who made

791
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court of that state Republican, unlike Charlie Baker,

792
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 1: who appointed Democrats the Massachusetts Supreme Court. He campaigned for

793
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 1: fair districting maps or Republicans could at least fight for

794
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 1: a second Republican House seat in the US House Representatives.

795
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:43,800
Speaker 1: He campaigned for Republicans down ballot, and in twenty eighteen,

796
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 1: Republicans on one I think marilynd was the only state

797
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 1: Republicans gained seats in the state Senate for in a

798
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: very tough Republican year. I think that speaks of Larry

799
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 1: Hogan's character as a party man. Larry Hogan was not

800
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: about Larry Hogan. Larry Hogan about the party. So often

801
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 1: when you see these Republicans in these blue states, like

802
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 1: a Chris Christie type and Arnold Schwarzenegger type, they are

803
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 1: about themselves, about promoting their brand right as that who

804
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 1: they are. They are these great unifiers that can win

805
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 1: these very tough seeds to build a national profile. They're

806
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 1: not really party people, which is you know, upsetting, and

807
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 1: they should they should be Party people. I think that

808
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 1: it's a question of which person you're talking about. Like

809
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 1: I have heard, and this is all alleged, but I

810
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 1: have heard that Brian Kemp is absolutely running for president

811
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight, that he has this eye set

812
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:41,759
Speaker 1: on the prize and that he thinks that he can win.

813
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 1: The Christ i've heard, is in the same exact boat

814
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 1: that he thinks that he can be president. Now, remember

815
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 1: Son New's father Christ and his father John sudo was

816
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 1: the chief of staff for President George Herbert Walker Bush.

817
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 1: And the New family is one of these political dynasties

818
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire that kind of have always assumed that

819
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 1: one day one of them will be president. So I

820
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 1: think that that is definitely in their eyes right now.

821
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 1: I don't know why Jucy didn't run, and I've heard

822
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:18,400
Speaker 1: that Youngen is exploring his options, that he was interested

823
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 1: in running for Senate at one point, he's interested in

824
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 1: running for president the other point, I don't know, but

825
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:23,320
Speaker 1: I'm running for God. I don't think he's uner for

826
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 1: governor in twenty nine because I've heard other Republicans have

827
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 1: been waiting to run for governor in twenty nine, So

828
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna make that choice yet, but

829
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 1: I think that I think Youngkin's political career is not

830
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 1: over and I wouldn't be surprised if he either ran

831
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: for the Senate or run for president, because I think

832
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: that he's exploring both. I think that it's just a

833
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 1: question of when and where, how, when and who. So

834
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 1: that's my little inside of that. Thank you though for

835
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: this question, love getting them. I will be back again

836
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 1: on Monday, so please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app,

837
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts wherever you gets your podcast to make sure

838
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 1: you don't miss an episode. It means a lot to

839
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 1: me and it helps promote this podcast. So thank you

840
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 1: guys again. I'll speak to you on Monday.