WEBVTT - Businessweek Extra - Mahindra, Moynihan, Schwarzman 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.160 This is Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. Kelly and 0:00:07.200 --> 0:00:09.920 I'm Carol Master. Welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week Extra. 0:00:10.080 --> 0:00:12.760 It's our weekly podcast bringing you an in depth interview 0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:15.680 you will not hear anywhere else. And you're gonna hear 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:19.360 our full panel discussion with as I like to say, 0:00:19.760 --> 0:00:23.439 group of ballers. They know a lot about the world economy. 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:27.319 As you rightly pointed out, three hundred billion dollars in 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:30.479 market cap. We're talking about Steve Schwarzen for Blackstone, a 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:33.560 non Mahindra of the Mahindra Group, and Brian moynihan, a 0:00:33.640 --> 0:00:37.080 Bank of America. Check it out, Steve, I'm gonna point 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:39.239 to you, what are you most worried about in the 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:44.560 world right now? Jeez, there's a lot to worry about, 0:00:45.400 --> 0:00:48.639 you know, because you know, first of all, just stepping 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:52.640 back from it, uh, you know, the social media and 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:56.280 the Internet are making it very difficult for almost any 0:00:56.320 --> 0:01:00.280 government to function. Uh. If you come out with a plan, 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:06.120 you have instant uh mobilization of opposition to anything you're doing. 0:01:06.760 --> 0:01:11.120 It even makes it difficult for companies. UH sometime with 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:16.720 sort of this roving band of opposition. Uh. And and 0:01:16.840 --> 0:01:21.720 you know, financially, um you know, sort of the you 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:25.440 have a few weaknesses in the system. I think that 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:30.880 European banking system isn't is uh strong, certainly as the 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:35.759 U S which is in great shape. You have um 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:40.200 private investments in the technology area, which that we work, 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:45.440 um you know sort of non public offering has exposed 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:49.840 as as being uh you know, really uh pretty inflated. 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:52.600 When when you when you have an industry that more 0:01:52.720 --> 0:01:56.320 or less marks up its positions, uh you know, in 0:01:56.600 --> 0:02:00.840 a closed circle among itself, and then it pops out 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:03.760 into the real world. The real world says, what are 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:07.680 you thinking that? That's usually um, you know, sort of 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:10.400 a wake up call, but it's you know that that 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:13.320 part of the world isn't big. That's that's a relatively 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:17.840 small uh set. Um. And I guess any of us 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.440 on the stage, and then I'll finish, because I don't 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:24.200 want to dominate anything. When you have thirteen trillion dollars 0:02:24.320 --> 0:02:28.040 of negative interest rates, I don't even know what a 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:31.080 negative interest rate is. And in other words, why would 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:34.040 I take my money and give it to somebody and 0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:36.560 for the privilege of them holding it, I have to 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:42.400 pay them like it's a storage unit um. And I'm 0:02:42.400 --> 0:02:46.560 supposed to get interest when I give people money. And 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:51.120 as as interest rates go down, uh, most of those 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.760 places that have those negative interest rates, it's not stimulative 0:02:55.560 --> 0:02:59.320 because banks have trouble earning money, uh, you know, in 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:03.560 that kind of environment. Uh. And if banks don't do well, 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:09.400 then they don't grow their capital. They can't then extend credit, 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:14.560 and countries don't grow unless there's credit extension. And so 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:19.560 this whole movement, particularly in Europe, to negative interest rates, 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:24.520 I think is some kind of uh warning sign, some 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:27.400 type of wake up call. How did we get in 0:03:27.400 --> 0:03:31.079 that position? Why are we in that position? Not us 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:35.760 as Americans, but us as financial people looking at the world. 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.160 So Brian may know more than I do, but it 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:44.120 just seems so, Brian, does this negative rate environment that 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:47.360 we increasingly see around the globe tell you that there's 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:50.480 some underlying weakness that maybe we're missing. We we know 0:03:50.560 --> 0:03:53.160 the obvious problems that are out there, but is there 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:56.720 something more substantial? Well, I think Steve's point is right. 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:00.720 There's the monetary policy decision, and to take rates as 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:05.000 low as possible to uh, to accommodate the economy, accommodate growth, 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:07.040 and they're lower in this country than have been historically, 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:09.680 but they're still positive. In other places are negative, and 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:12.360 there's a significant amount of it. I think there's a 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:15.200 debate whether it actually transmits the economy because if you 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:17.840 look in some of the countries where the rate structure 0:04:17.839 --> 0:04:20.719 has been negative for five years, the banks still have 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:24.520 to pay consumer depositors interest because to these point, they're 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.120 not gonna give us a hundred dollars and get ninety 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:28.560 five back and think it's a great thing. And so 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.800 I think there's a great debate. The economists will hack out, 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:33.960 but the reality is it showing a weakness and economies armies, 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:37.400 probably more fiscal work done and more reform work done 0:04:37.680 --> 0:04:40.240 to stimulate those economies, and well, good luck with that, 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:42.080 and good luck with that. The good news is in 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:44.560 the US you already have an economy which is pretty 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:48.800 flexible and work talent people, uh, lots of capital, deep 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:53.400 capital markets at the banking system, that restructured, a set 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:55.760 of rules that you can understand one law that covers 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:58.719 an economy. It's the largest in the world as opposed 0:04:58.760 --> 0:05:02.000 to multiple laws. And so you're seeing the US continue 0:05:02.040 --> 0:05:05.800 to grow, unemployments low, and consumers continue to spend. So 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:09.240 the question really from the macro sense, is all that 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:13.560 parade of interesting things to ponder and worry about it 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:18.080 is only Wednesday is offset by seventy U s economy 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:21.479 has been speeding up its activity all this year, and 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:23.680 that is as big as Chinese economy. And so when 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:26.120 was that tension just going to be really wrestled to 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:28.640 the ground. And that's the question, well and so and on. 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:31.720 I put that to you because you look across a 0:05:31.800 --> 0:05:35.359 hundred countries, You're you're operating in a hundred countries, I believe, 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:39.760 is that are we at a breaking point where we 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:44.200 may see something snap here? Or can we continue on, 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:50.080 especially from a consumer perspective, in a nice upward, gentle trajectory. 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:52.520 Let me start in a light or note first, because 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:55.520 when you asked Steeve this question, but what's on your mind? 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:59.400 I do have a very weighty global problem on my 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:01.840 mind right now, and that is I have a two 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:05.240 year old grandson who lives in New York. His father's 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:08.479 Mexican American and speaks to him only in Spanish. So 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:11.279 right now my major preoccupation is how to improve my 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.800 Spanish so I can communicate with my grandchild. But if 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:16.880 you look at it that's a lighter note. But frankly, 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:19.039 that to me is the real thing that what is 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:20.839 me about the world. You look at it from a 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:23.719 human centered point. When you try to operate in a 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:29.880 hundred countries language communication, keeping the core of your business 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:32.720 and the governance and the values of people is a 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:36.360 major problem. So I'm looking at more as a I'm 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:39.559 not really worried about growth. I think we have enough 0:06:39.839 --> 0:06:42.280 locuses of growth to come up. You heard the Prime 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:45.240 Minister of India this morning, and I don't think what 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:48.080 he was talking about was hype. Steve, you've been out 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:51.200 there very often. I think he knows what the potential 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:55.119 is if you look at the population, and he talked 0:06:55.160 --> 0:07:00.360 about four ds this morning, the democracy, the demography as well, 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:04.960 and he talked about demand and decisiveness. If India does 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:08.760 get moving again. And I think he's taken some steps 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:11.600 recently like the tax cut, which should do exactly what 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:14.440 the tax cuts did here, you're going to get another 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:17.880 engine of growth for the world, for sure. And I Brian, 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.320 and I see him more in India than I do here. 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:23.600 So I think both these gentlemen understand what the potential 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:27.000 of India is I'm really not worried about consumer demand 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:29.800 coming in from different parts of the world. We just 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:32.520 have to look around the world. All the focus has 0:07:32.520 --> 0:07:35.200 been on America, rightfully, but I think you're going to 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:37.520 see an uptake and a lot of other parts of 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:39.680 the world. But why does it feel And I know 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:41.680 we talked so much about recession, and I know you 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:44.040 spoke with David Western over the summer quote that we 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:46.920 used a lot on Bloomberg. We have nothing to fear 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:48.880 about a recession right now except for the fear of 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:52.760 recession T shirts, bumper stickers. I mean, but I just 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:55.720 feel like it feels like if you talk to businesses 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:58.920 and CEOs, they're hesitant to spend. But then you talk 0:07:58.960 --> 0:08:01.040 about the strength and to constus, how do you reconcile 0:08:01.080 --> 0:08:04.160 those two and and and are you still ruling out recession? 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:07.880 That nobody if you look at all the consensus, you know, 0:08:07.920 --> 0:08:10.280 the thirty eight economist. When I talked to David, I said, look, 0:08:10.480 --> 0:08:12.560 there's nobody has a negative sign in front of any 0:08:12.600 --> 0:08:15.120 of their estimates. And so in the bottom five probably 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:18.600 average and the it's you know, five point five for 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:21.600 gdp US next year, and stuff. So even though people 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:23.720 saying the probability is going up, because that's the uncertain 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:25.840 the question is nobodys predicting it is going to happen. 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.360 The fear you have is going to your point, it's 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:31.280 only ones day and what's going on? Will you get 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:35.480 the consumer confidence to to deterior right now? It's it's 0:08:35.520 --> 0:08:37.200 come up, it's come down a little bit, and we 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:39.920 get intera if that starts to happen, that's the word. 0:08:40.040 --> 0:08:42.640 You do not see that in your activity every day. Um. 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:46.760 The combination of housing prices still being constructive, which that 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:49.080 part of the wealth is constructive, the stock market still 0:08:49.080 --> 0:08:51.319 being up, that part of their wealth is constructive, their 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:54.400 wages growing faster now than they have really since any 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:57.480 any point of last sight nine years. The employment levels 0:08:57.480 --> 0:08:59.520 being high. So that's always the good news. The questions 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:02.079 what breaks set and that's what I worry about. The 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:06.880 the psychology of business deteriorating somewhat again high high, still 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:09.439 very high, but tipped over a little bit. One do 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:13.679 the one does a business owner convey to their teammates 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.400 that it might not be as good for this next year. 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:21.079 I higher wages, a bigger boninus more incentive plans whatever, 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:23.120 or you get to keep your job. We don't not 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:25.600 see that in our Our middle market loans are growing 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:27.120 on a faster clip now and they were the last 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:29.720 few years. So it's all okay. And and that's the 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:31.800 question that we said. And I think the fear could 0:09:31.800 --> 0:09:34.160 cause us to back up before the data will show 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:38.040 you're there. So some of that fear and caution, Steve, 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.120 comes from this dispute between the U S And China. 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:44.080 There are a few people who have done as much 0:09:44.240 --> 0:09:47.480 dare I say, shuttle diplomacy than you have between the 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:50.079 leaders leaders of those two countries. You write about it, 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:52.079 h in your book. Steve's book, by the way, is 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:54.600 on sale now. I don't know if anybody has heard 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:59.160 about what it takes um, but we'll have that commercial 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:04.160 in a moment. But you do write extensively about China 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:07.040 in the book, your experience there, the Schwartzman scholars, your 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:11.439 relationship with President she How does this get resolved at 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:15.040 least to the satisfaction that the CEO s that that 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:19.800 Brian is talking about, specifically feel good enough to start 0:10:19.840 --> 0:10:23.320 spending money again. Yeah, I'll talk about that in one second, 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:26.800 but but just in terms of risk. Uh. I've always 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:30.640 felt that, you know, the cycle when it comes to 0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:34.360 an end, won't do it from from normal you know, 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:38.920 business cycle issues, because because that seems to be managed 0:10:38.920 --> 0:10:43.840 pretty well. Uh, it'll be some type of geopolitical type 0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:53.400 of incident circumstance which which hits the confidence of consumers. 0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:57.800 It won't be over production of goods and things like that. 0:10:57.880 --> 0:11:01.160 I could be wrong, but I've been thinking about this 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:04.040 for a few years, and we've got enough of these 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:10.120 major things that that could change people's attitudes. Uh. You know, 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:14.520 we're full employment. Uh. You know, so people have a 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:19.160 good situation, but their behavior may change if they're scared 0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:23.400 of something. Uh. As as to China us um Uh 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:31.400 that's as it's an interesting situation because basically driven but 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:35.160 by the fact that you know, in the last presidential election, 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:40.880 we discovered that that of Americans couldn't write a four 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:46.440 check in an emergency. So so if you think about that, 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:50.240 these are people who fundamentally don't have savings uh, and 0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:55.600 they don't earn much money. Uh, and their their education 0:11:55.640 --> 0:12:00.920 American education has really slipped dramatically for the last thirty 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:05.080 to forty years, and those those people are very unhappy. 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:10.199 Uh and and they they in effect or demanding some 0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:14.960 type of change. And part of that change happens when 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:20.160 they don't and they don't get satisfied with domestic solutions. Historically, 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:25.640 with populism, um, you get angry at some foreign entity. 0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:29.440 And China's the target. And it was pretty obvious that 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:31.679 it was going to be. And I talked to the 0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:35.120 Chinese about that right after the election, and they were 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:38.760 not sensitive to that, and I told them, don't don't 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.079 worry about it. We we didn't understand it either, uh, 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:44.120 you know, which is why, you know, we had a 0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:48.000 president elected that nobody thought would be elected except him. 0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:51.120 Uh And and so we all learned something. I said, 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:55.000 don't feel bad, you know, you didn't have bad staff work, 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.920 but now you know. And they they said, okay, well, 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:02.200 you know, if that's the case, we're going to have 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:07.360 to adjust to. China for four years has been growing 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:12.720 faster than any major country in history. Uh. And so 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:17.840 this is like whatever practices they have which in history 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.320 when you're you know, sort of a we used to 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:24.400 call them, you know, developing countries or underdeveloped countries. Uh. 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:27.400 Now we call them emerging markets. Uh. You know, they 0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:30.360 in the United States did this in the nineteenth century. 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:35.520 We hide behind terror falls, you protect your industries. Uh, 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:39.920 you don't let foreigners in into certain things that you 0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:43.400 know where they can compete. Uh. And and that world 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.600 lives until you become a more matured country and then 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:49.760 you integrate well, I think I think in China, part 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.640 of part of the interesting issue is they still think 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.800 they're poor and we sort of think they're rich. And 0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:59.840 their their GDP per capita is ten thousand dollars are 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:04.679 is roughly sixty. But when they started this sprint forty 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:08.280 years ago, I think it was like four person So 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:12.440 so it's been enormous progress, but there there's still you know, 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:16.120 sort of like one six of us, and now we're 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:22.400 demanding our bottom and effect. Uh. And also European countries 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:26.040 don't like they have similar problems, uh that that we're 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:30.560 asking China to like become a more mature country and 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.920 join the rest of the world. Their attitude is we're 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:39.760 still poor. So so okay, if we have to make adjustments, Um, 0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:43.920 it's not our favorite thing to do. What what do 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:46.480 we do? And so what you've been seeing over the 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:51.000 last two and a half years is the US wanting them. 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:53.960 You know, it's sort of the leader of the developed 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:58.400 world to come pretty far. And on the Chinese side, 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:02.360 UM are trying to figure out how far and how 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:07.120 fast they want to get someplace. So so so you know, 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:11.040 the two countries got quite close um in May, at 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:15.040 which point the Chinese just withdrew they you know, they 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:17.800 had agreed to a variety of things. We thought, uh, 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:20.400 and then they looked at the whole and they said, uh, 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:23.040 you know, my goodness, let's not do that. And now 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:27.520 that's just starting again. And meanwhile, what's happened in this 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:30.600 two and a half years is that the two countries 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:36.000 have started um as a results of false starts and 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:39.440 in a variety of other tactical stuff, you know, are 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:45.080 are starting to decouple, which is very dangerous. Um. Well, 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:46.720 can we I want to dig a little bit into that, 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:49.760 because I do wonder. I think increasingly we're expecting this 0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:51.960 world where it's China and its allies and the United 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:54.760 States and its allies is not used. It in a 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:58.960 very interesting place figuratively and literally between China and the 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.720 United States. How do you see it? I see it 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:07.440 as a situation of enormous opportunity I have to be mercenary, 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:13.520 of course, absolutely because to be and I'm I'm just 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:16.880 being truthful here that for a long time, it wasn't 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:21.840 kosher for anyone in American policy positions to admit that 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:25.640 there was a kind of conflict with China and that 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:29.480 India in fact could be one of the players in 0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:32.600 this game as a buffer against China. That was just 0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:35.320 no no. If you went to the Council on Foreign Relations, 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:37.400 nobody would admit that. I think it's now it's in 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:40.280 the open, and I think President Trump has even made 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.320 it more in the open. I mean going to Houston 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:45.240 and listening to our Prime minister. I think he made 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:48.280 it very clear what kind of alliance he had. I 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:51.640 think there's nothing but opportunity for India in this and 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:55.080 we have to play our cards right and see that 0:16:55.240 --> 0:17:00.320 we are viewed now as a very very appropriate ally 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:04.119 for the US as a buffer both in defense terms. Frankly, 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:06.879 if you look at the number of defense exercises between 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:11.520 the US and India, they're proliferating dramatically. Defense procurement from 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:15.399 the from India is already burgeoning. We never used to 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:18.040 buy the used to buy more from the Russians and 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:22.480 frankly all the all the tenor of the relationship with 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:26.240 India's right. This is a democratic country, the country that 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:29.600 values I p R. There's a country that has scale 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:32.960 and growth, so there is profit for global companies too 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:35.760 over there. So I think India has nothing but a 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:38.600 unique opportunity right now and we have to just play 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:40.720 those cards right, and I think it would be a 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:43.520 win win for both the US and for India. So 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:47.240 I actually agree. And having been with a bunch of 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.200 CEOs with Prime Minister's Morning, all who are talking about 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:53.360 their business expanding in India. It's been a natural recipient. 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.359 And I think some of the bureocracy and things that 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:59.600 were difficult to operate, they have been doubt whether they 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.600 can be proved, and everybody knows. I think the broader 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:05.679 context here though, is is you know, global trade and 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:08.560 and if you go back and say, if the China 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:12.439 US situation will take longer, the questions what can resolve 0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:15.080 in the interim, And this is where unfortunately I'm not 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:19.199 sure what happens given the politics in the situation this 0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:21.320 week to U S, m c A and things like that, 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:24.040 which are critical to get done because as much as 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.480 India is a beneficiary, Mexico and Canada in a in 0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:30.280 a trade with US is a beneficiary in a sense 0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:32.600 or a way to operate. Let's make it simpler that 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:35.400 wage scale in Mexico is actually lower than the parts 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.399 of China. There's they could use the jobs. There's a 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:41.240 lot of people can move to manufacturing there, there's already 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:46.000 integrated manufacturing supply chains. Canada's a different situation. So I 0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:48.600 think to keep the US kind of moving forward, there 0:18:48.640 --> 0:18:52.640 are three or four things to knock out. Everybody hopes 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:55.080 for China US, but there are a couple of things 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:56.600 to knock out first, and one of them as a U, 0:18:56.640 --> 0:18:58.320 S M C A. I just don't know politically if 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:00.080 they can push it through, even though I think O 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:01.840 sides seem to want it, and if they could push 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:03.760 that through, that would be good and give more time 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:06.159 to work I think on China. So I want to 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:09.080 stick with something you said in the context of the 0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:11.240 meaning that you had with Prime Minister Modi, which is 0:19:11.480 --> 0:19:18.080 clearly CEOs are stepping into a brighter and maybe higher 0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:22.119 expectation type spotlight. We hear it over and over again. 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:27.359 Do you feel a greater responsibility now, especially given what's 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:30.879 going on in Washington, in London and capitals around the world, 0:19:31.320 --> 0:19:36.199 to speak out both on your own issues related to 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:39.720 business but also social issues in the end of the day, 0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:42.159 especially our company has been around for two d and 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:45.640 thirty plus years and so we've been around through all 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:48.240 kinds of fun stuff if you think about it. But 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:50.400 but the round he is our job is to produce 0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:54.479 profits and make progress so much society needs to do. 0:19:55.000 --> 0:19:57.359 And so the idea of the purpose statement by the 0:19:57.359 --> 0:20:00.119 b R T the work I do that we all 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:02.560 do with your National Business Council and the World Economics 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:05.359 Forum leadership for years, the you know Mike's leadership on 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:07.600 the climate. You pick your thing. The idea is we 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:09.720 have to have companies can do both produce a great 0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:14.879 profit and make sustainable make progress on the STGs. And 0:20:14.920 --> 0:20:17.600 so I think all of CEOs agree with that. And 0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:20.560 I so the attribute where people say we're speaking out 0:20:20.560 --> 0:20:23.320 publicly on an issue generally comes from the need on 0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:25.960 that second, but it also reverberates the first. If you 0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:28.000 have teammates working for you and you went what we 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:31.400 went through the last five or six years on Post 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:36.320 Nightclub Charleston, Vegas, Houston, Parkland, and you had teammates in 0:20:36.320 --> 0:20:38.720 every one of the situations that led our team to 0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:40.800 say we ought to take a stand on something. It 0:20:40.920 --> 0:20:42.440 was not because we need to go out and make 0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:45.200 some policy statement. It was because if you think about 0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:48.159 to have great teammates to make that profit you have 0:20:48.200 --> 0:20:51.880 to make, you have to protect on HP two, which 0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:54.480 was a North Carolina issue about we had to come 0:20:54.480 --> 0:20:56.440 out because it was our headquarters town are people would 0:20:56.480 --> 0:20:58.920 not travel there and so well, people are thinking this 0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:01.160 is about you know me or something. It's not. It's 0:21:01.160 --> 0:21:03.840 about we have to represent the two hundred thousand teammates 0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:05.960 that five or six hundred thousand people in their families 0:21:06.280 --> 0:21:08.240 and ensure them well and pay them well. But also 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:11.119 we need them to be successful and to produce great 0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:14.840 profit and sustain progress on the STGs and that and 0:21:15.080 --> 0:21:16.879 is the key. And so as long as we can 0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:19.439 do and the investors and stuff should stay with us, 0:21:19.480 --> 0:21:23.159 and then it gives us the permission and the availability. 0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:25.320 But it comes from really the view that our customers 0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:28.520 are teammates, our communities and our shareholders really are more aligned. 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.159 And it's nothing new. This is we came out of 0:21:31.160 --> 0:21:33.760 the community. We were formed by people saying we need financing. 0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:36.359 To Steve's point, in this community two d and thirty 0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:38.640 years ago, So start to think about We've been through 0:21:38.640 --> 0:21:41.520 all the impeachment proceeds. We've been through tough elections. That 0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:44.200 one was a mess and maybe they made a nice 0:21:44.200 --> 0:21:46.320 play called Hamilton's out of it right. We have been 0:21:46.359 --> 0:21:47.960 there through this and we will be there through the 0:21:47.960 --> 0:21:51.480 next one if we basically do both make great returns 0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:54.639 for our shorewlers and deliver on the society needs. Because 0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:57.320 any day that means communities grow, that means we grow. 0:21:57.400 --> 0:21:59.920 So in India we handle the same thing we bill 0:22:00.160 --> 0:22:04.960 children's museum and Mumbai, Uh why because they never had 0:22:04.960 --> 0:22:08.239 a children's museum. You'd say, how's that consistent? Well, that's 0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:10.120 what our teammates wanted us to do to help out. 0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:13.440 So it's it's work on both sides. Steve, I want 0:22:13.440 --> 0:22:15.520 to bring you back in because I'm curious, as you know, 0:22:15.600 --> 0:22:18.440 on the campaign trail, some of the candidates have kind 0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:22.800 of put private equity UM on their radar and we've 0:22:22.800 --> 0:22:28.480 been happy with that. We'll just watch the batons and UM. 0:22:28.600 --> 0:22:31.240 But I am curious that's saying, you know, private equity 0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:33.560 is responsible for some of the inequalities that are in 0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:36.840 our world. What do you say to that, Well, I'd 0:22:36.880 --> 0:22:41.560 say there's a lot of misunderstandings. Um and Um. You know, 0:22:41.600 --> 0:22:46.960 the private equity industry is comprised of a lot of 0:22:46.960 --> 0:22:51.600 different firms. And but basically what we do is leaving 0:22:51.640 --> 0:22:56.600 other asset classes like real estate aside. Um, we buy 0:22:56.640 --> 0:23:00.800 companies and we try and make them grow faster because 0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:04.199