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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join

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Speaker 1: us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. You can also watch the show live

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Speaker 1: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to

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Speaker 1: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am

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Speaker 1: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you

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Speaker 1: listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: This is some of my ute folks.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Samuel Coffin, the fabulous Mary Harris of Uboso

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Speaker 1: built all the foundation there, and whoever originally he hired

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Speaker 1: years ago, this young whipper snapper Drew Madis. And what's

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Speaker 1: cool here is someone like maddest folks now over it

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Speaker 1: meant life. It's like it's like it's like one soda.

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Speaker 1: He went from the Padres to the Yankees.

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Speaker 2: Over with the New York Yankees.

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Speaker 1: Drew Madis gives me a research report from eight years ago.

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Speaker 1: Drew Madis, why are you pulling out a UBS report

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Speaker 1: from eight years ago my three favorite canaries tweet for us.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's there's still some of the best things to

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Speaker 3: look at in terms of whether the economy is improving

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Speaker 3: or getting worse. And unfortunately, what we're seeing in those

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Speaker 3: in those indicators, which are claims, the ism reports, and

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Speaker 3: core bank loans are all signs that the economy is

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Speaker 3: beginning to weaken, which I think has become more evident

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Speaker 3: in things. But you know, with the idea of kind

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Speaker 3: of the soft landing having taken hold or the no

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Speaker 3: landing having taken hold, this is just something that I

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Speaker 3: think points in the opposite direction and maybe suggests that,

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Speaker 3: you know, weakness is going to be forthcoming.

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Speaker 1: Well, we finally see it in the job report coming

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Speaker 1: up here early June.

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Speaker 3: I think we're going to see some weekend the jobs report.

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Speaker 3: Our expectation is you're going to see the unemployment rate

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Speaker 3: move higher over time. And you know, once again, you know,

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Speaker 3: we do expect the FED to cut interest rates, but

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Speaker 3: we expect the FED to cut interest rates because we

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Speaker 3: expect the economy is going to be weakening. They're going

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Speaker 3: to be cutting with inflation above their target.

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Speaker 1: June seven, Elate Jobs report Paul Sweeney Change in non

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Speaker 1: firm payables now one hundred and eighty thousand.

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Speaker 4: Okay, survey. So, Drew, do you think the FED here?

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Speaker 4: Do you think the Fed's kind of behind the curve

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Speaker 4: a little bit here in terms of cutting interest rates?

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Speaker 4: Or you know a lot of folks will come in

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Speaker 4: here and talk to Tom and I and say, hey,

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Speaker 4: they should just wait here. How do you think about it?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think there's an argument for waiting. But

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Speaker 3: at the same point, you know, the Fen's pretty much

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Speaker 3: always behind the curve. I mean, you know, there's no

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Speaker 3: point in putting, you know, a doghound, you know, against

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Speaker 3: the greyhound and backing the outcome to be any different, right,

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Speaker 3: you know that the FED is the animal that they are,

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Speaker 3: and they're going to be behind the curve. And the

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Speaker 3: question is, you know, how, you know, how aggressive can

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Speaker 3: they be when they don't know where things are going?

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Speaker 3: And I think the answer is that they need to

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Speaker 3: have a little bit more humility, which you know, I

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Speaker 3: think if they had had that in the first place,

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Speaker 3: we probably wouldn't have had the inflation rates that we've had.

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Speaker 4: All right, So given that backdrop here again, rates likely

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Speaker 4: coming down at some point earning seem to be pretty

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Speaker 4: solid here. That seems to be pretty constructive background for equities.

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Speaker 4: How do you guys think about that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know the problem is kind of you know,

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Speaker 3: how much risk do you want to take when it

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Speaker 3: seems like we're on the verge of a turn, and

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Speaker 3: where will that turn show up? And will we be

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Speaker 3: will it be as obvious to everyone when it happens.

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Speaker 3: So you know, we've been in kind of a risk

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Speaker 3: off mode for a while now, and I think that

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Speaker 3: that's that surved us well. And I think you know

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Speaker 3: probably where I would still be, although I will say,

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Speaker 3: you know, when you're when you're trying to figure out

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Speaker 3: at the turn where you're going to be, you know

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Speaker 3: there are there are places you can be where you

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Speaker 3: actually as soon as the turn happens, you want to

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Speaker 3: be looking at those places. And so you know, we're

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Speaker 3: trying to be or thinking about things in a more

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Speaker 3: nimble way and see, you know where the greatest missed

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Speaker 3: pricings are in the economy.

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Speaker 1: Drew back to Colby College economics of a few years ago.

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Speaker 1: In your sterling career. There's a whole idea of aggregating

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Speaker 1: all the data together versus two, three, or even four Americas.

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Speaker 1: Are you disaggregating now? Are you looking at an America

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Speaker 1: of haves and have nots?

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Speaker 3: You know, I've always been a fan of keeping the aggregate,

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Speaker 3: and the reason being is because you know, if you

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Speaker 3: if you disaggregate in that way, you're basically saying that

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Speaker 3: one group of people can't do a job another group

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Speaker 3: of people can do. And I think increasingly, uh, you know,

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Speaker 3: we're seeing actually that you know, with new technologies, you know,

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Speaker 3: people can do things that you know, maybe they weren't

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Speaker 3: weren't possible before. The only reason to disaggregate now is

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Speaker 3: is because it seems like, you know, the savings rate

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Speaker 3: among one group of the higher end cohort income cohort

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Speaker 3: is really strong. Uh and and there's some excess money there.

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Speaker 3: Uh And so we need to be if we're going

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Speaker 3: to see weakness, it's going to be there first. Right.

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Speaker 3: We already know there's weakness in certain other areas. But

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Speaker 3: the people who drive the economy or the people who

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Speaker 3: can change their savings rate. So you know, if if

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Speaker 3: people are going in and they're getting either government support

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Speaker 3: or they're spending one hundred percent of what they make,

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Speaker 3: you know, those people don't have the ability to adjust

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Speaker 3: their their spending. They just adjust what they're spending on.

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Speaker 3: The higher income cohorts have the ability to actually, you know,

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Speaker 3: increase savings, decrease savings, which then boost the economy or

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Speaker 3: reduces the economy. The good news for the FED, quite

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Speaker 3: frankly is tenure yields are basically at the optimal point

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Speaker 3: to maximize spending.

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Speaker 1: Interesting, where are they going to be in twelve months?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean that's the ultimate calling.

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Speaker 3: So we actually, like ski relatively stable around here. But

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Speaker 3: you know, once again, though, if they go higher, people

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Speaker 3: begin to save because they feel the need to. If

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Speaker 3: they go lower, they actually need to save more because

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Speaker 3: people think about retirement and they think about the yield

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Speaker 3: they are going to get in retirement, and so they

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Speaker 3: adjust to try to basically get to an income stream

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Speaker 3: and retirement. And that's the failure of the zero rate

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Speaker 3: policy is that if you push rates too low, train

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Speaker 3: inhibit spending.

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Speaker 2: Doramatis, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: With MetLife, Greg Daco joins right now, e y parthenon.

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Speaker 4: Greg.

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Speaker 1: It's a you know, quiescent maybe doesn't capture it. It's

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Speaker 1: sort of an on plan report, but one point three

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Speaker 1: percent real GDP is that on the edge of stagflation.

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Speaker 5: Now, I don't think it's on the edge of stagflation

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Speaker 5: because of the composition of this GDP print.

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Speaker 2: What we saw was.

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Speaker 5: Again a very large trade drag, a drag from higher

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Speaker 5: net imports. That is not necessarily a bad thing. It

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Speaker 5: indicates that there was still demand from a consumption perspective,

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Speaker 5: from a business investment perspective, So I think I would

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Speaker 5: fade the headline GDP print, which is soft at one

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Speaker 5: point three percent, and focus on final demand from private

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Speaker 5: purchasers that is still trending around three percent. It's still

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Speaker 5: a robust economy, but we're seeing a little bit more

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Speaker 5: scrutiny on the part of consumers in this high cost environment.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but this is religion to me, folks.

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Speaker 1: We're talking domestic final sales as a general statement. It's

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Speaker 1: something you flunk any kind one oh one, Greg doctor

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Speaker 1: didn't flunk it. But the answer is you peel out

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Speaker 1: a sports you peel out the noise, maybe appeel out

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Speaker 1: the silliness of inventory dynamics, and you got a run

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Speaker 1: rate in America that Paul Sweeney sees every weekend of

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Speaker 1: like a three percent GDP, right, Greg.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you've got about three percent GDP growth when you

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Speaker 5: peel out to all those factors. I would also note

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Speaker 5: that today we got the GDI report that gross domestic

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Speaker 5: income number which rows one point five percent. So even

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Speaker 5: though you have to nuance some of the underlying factors

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Speaker 5: in terms of the headline GDP print, gross domestic income

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Speaker 5: continues to point towards that softening momentum in terms of

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Speaker 5: the economy.

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Speaker 4: If you look at consumer.

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Speaker 6: Spending data, also showing consumers exorciving more scrutiny, being more

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Speaker 6: careful as to what they spend on, and you're seeing

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Speaker 6: the lower income consumers, younger generations, consumers that are more

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Speaker 6: indebted that are feeling the pressure at high interest rates

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Speaker 6: and high prices and curbing their outlays in this environment.

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Speaker 5: So that's what I would expect to see as we

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Speaker 5: navigate into the second parl.

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Speaker 1: As we do on surveillance, we go to the younger generation.

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Speaker 1: Lisa Matteo, are you curbing your consumption?

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Speaker 7: I'm trying my very best.

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Speaker 2: Going down in flames out. Thank you. That's the last

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Speaker 2: time we'll speak to the generation today.

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Speaker 4: Paul, Hey, Greg talk to us about kind of your

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Speaker 4: view of the consumer here. I'm just looking at some

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Speaker 4: Cohal's numbers that came in weaker than expected. Target was

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Speaker 4: also a little bit weak, but Walmart was okay. So

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Speaker 4: I mean, how are you guys viewing the consumer out there?

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Speaker 5: I think we have to depart a little bit from

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Speaker 5: this view of the consumer. I think there are multiple

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Speaker 5: types of consumers, and we're increasingly seeing a bifurcation in

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Speaker 5: the economy. We're seeing individuals at the lower end of

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Speaker 5: the income spectrum, those as I just mentioned, that have

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Speaker 5: higher debt burdens, that are perhaps maxing out on their

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Speaker 5: credit lines, that have larger debt amounts and perhaps less

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Speaker 5: savings to buffer any type of slowdown in the labor market.

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Speaker 5: Those are the ones that are a little bit more careful,

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Speaker 5: more prudent with how they spend, that is gradually moving

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Speaker 5: up into the income labd And if we do see

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Speaker 5: and I'm not saying this will materialize, but if we

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Speaker 5: do see more pronounced slow down in the labor market,

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Speaker 5: that could pretend to slower income momentum and in turn

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Speaker 5: force even a more pronounced slowdown in consumer spending activity,

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Speaker 5: which by itself would actually be a good thing. On

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Speaker 5: the inflation front, because it would promote those dift inflationary

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Speaker 5: burnts that we've been seeing.

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Speaker 4: All Right, Greg, given that that backdrop, do you think

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Speaker 4: the SPED should be cutting rates now or like a

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Speaker 4: lot of folks say, they should just be sitting on

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Speaker 4: the sidelines and wait, what do you think?

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Speaker 5: I think a lot of attention, perhaps too much attention,

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Speaker 5: has been given to this first rate cut. Nothing says

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Speaker 5: that once the FED starts to cut, or the ECB

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Speaker 5: or the Bank of England or the Bank of Canada,

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Speaker 5: they have to cut at every meeting or every other meeting.

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Speaker 5: Nothing is predetermined in this environment. But I do think

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Speaker 5: that if you look at the broader picture and have

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Speaker 5: more of a forward looking perspective, with this view of

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Speaker 5: the economy gradually slowing disinflationary pressures fill in the works,

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Speaker 5: the FED could very well start easing monetary policy.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 5: Takes some time to evaluate how the economy is evolving.

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Speaker 6: But be on the right step.

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Speaker 5: In the case the economy slows faster than what has

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Speaker 5: been expected. We've been riding this good wave of robust

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Speaker 5: economic data, painless disinflation. I think we have to be

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Speaker 5: very careful to assume that this will continue forever. We

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Speaker 5: are seeing signs of cost fatigue, high interest rates, more

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Speaker 5: cautious business investment starting to weigh in the economy, and

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Speaker 5: we have to be prepared.

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Speaker 1: And now, folks home economics with Gregory doco, Ey, greg

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Speaker 1: this isn't the zeitgeist right now, and some of us

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Speaker 1: are living it.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to be an amateur here.

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Speaker 1: Renter's insurance is in CPI, but homeowner's insurance sort of

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Speaker 1: kind of like is not calculated in CPI. And I

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Speaker 1: go to CPS reporting four or five, six months ago.

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Speaker 1: The basic idea that ninety percent of the homes in

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Speaker 1: New Jersey's Ocean County and nearly sixty percent of the

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Speaker 1: homes in Monmouth County all right risk of higher insurance premiums.

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Speaker 1: We go to our New Jersey premium expert, Paul Sweeney.

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Speaker 1: What premium is homeowners premium right now in the premium

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Speaker 1: state of New Jersey.

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Speaker 4: And I'm a solid five blocks from the beach, so

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Speaker 4: I'm paying my fair share. My former home in California toime,

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Speaker 4: it was in a fire area, so I was covered

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Speaker 4: with regular insurance until about three or four years ago,

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Speaker 4: and they said nope, you're now in the fire area.

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Speaker 4: So I had to go to Lloyd's of London to

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Speaker 4: get insurance, did you yeah? I mean those are the

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Speaker 4: people that ensure ships that go like in the Red Sea.

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Speaker 1: Did you stop by Gregs and Heaven and the Chase?

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Speaker 1: Craig Doco, this is ridiculous homeowner's insurance. A guy like

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Speaker 1: Michael Barr has been play crushed.

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Speaker 2: Was six deer in the backyard from a homeowner's insurance?

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Speaker 2: Greig Doco?

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Speaker 1: How do we put homeowners insurance that we're all getting

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Speaker 1: killed on into CPI?

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Speaker 5: I think we have to be very careful with insurance

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Speaker 5: in general, both homeowner insurance and car insurance. And wonder

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Speaker 5: whether these are the types of pressures that the FED

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Speaker 5: should be fighting. Should the FED be focused on these

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Speaker 5: components of CPI, inflation of inflation in general as to

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Speaker 5: essentially try to curb inflation and bring inflation back towards

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Speaker 5: that two percent target. There are open questions as to

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Speaker 5: whether the FED wants to squeeze other components to offset

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Speaker 5: the fact that they can't control that.

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Speaker 1: There's no textbook you or I studied that says the

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Speaker 1: FED can surgically control selected inflation items.

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Speaker 5: Exactly, and you've probably given the blunt tools and the

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Speaker 5: uncertain lags in terms of monetary policy. That's why I'm

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Speaker 5: not necessarily sure that you want to have monetary palsy

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Speaker 5: remain higher for longer, tighter for longer. In this type

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Speaker 5: of environment where a lot a large part of what's

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Speaker 5: driving inflation today is structural by nature. Homeowner insurance prices

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Speaker 5: are not rising because of inflationary dynamics, rather because you

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Speaker 5: have climate change, you have conditions that are shifting. Same

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Speaker 5: on the automotive front, not necessarily sure that the fact

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Speaker 5: can do much about these types of inflation dynamics.

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Speaker 1: On the anniversary of the release of Just What I

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Speaker 1: Needed by the Cars from Boston University and Ey Craig Daco,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much, just absolutely brilliant different.

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Speaker 2: This timely interview coming.

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Speaker 1: Up, we are going to consider the legal issues of

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Speaker 1: Lower Manhattan. David Gerr there, I think June Grosso's is

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Speaker 1: June's scheduled to be with us as well.

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Speaker 2: Did we talk to her people?

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Speaker 4: I think do you think she does the afternoon shift?

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Studio here right now.

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Speaker 1: Ethan Devit joins Chief Global Strategist Manetta Group, with a

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Speaker 1: really really solid understanding of the turn of markets out

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Speaker 1: of the United Kingdom. Thank you so much for joining

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Speaker 1: right now. Can we sustain global nominal GDP? Can we

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Speaker 1: keep this good feeling going?

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Speaker 8: It's going to be difficult to sustain that. I mean,

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Speaker 8: we clearly have exceeded expectations in terms of where GDP

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Speaker 8: has been, coming down to one point three percent. I'd

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Speaker 8: say that's in the category of nothing to write home

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Speaker 8: about right now. So it's definitely is more muted and

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Speaker 8: perhaps more in line with how the economy should feel

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Speaker 8: after it's just experienced a soft landing. We know that

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Speaker 8: it's quite mixed. That number as a top line number

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Speaker 8: will perhaps distort quite a bit of variability behind the

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Speaker 8: scenes among different sectors. So no, I'd say we're pretty

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Speaker 8: much holding on by the skin of our teeth to

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Speaker 8: a positive number right now.

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Speaker 1: How do you define stagflation? Do we know how Jamie

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Speaker 1: Diamond defines it?

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Speaker 2: Paul, I don't think.

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Speaker 4: I don't.

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Speaker 1: People throw this thing around, and I mean we're talking

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Speaker 1: here with somebody with some qualifications including Trinity College, Dublin,

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Speaker 1: a school called Oxford. You know, it's just done pretty

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Speaker 1: pretty insient in France. I mean, how do you define stagflation?

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Speaker 8: Well, at So's I would like to say, I was

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Speaker 8: born in the era when it was last popular. It's

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Speaker 8: stagnation plus inflation. That's my understanding. It's been forecast for

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Speaker 8: most of my life, but it hasn't actually transpired. And

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Speaker 8: I'd say now we're hardly on either side of it.

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Speaker 8: We're seeing neither stagnation nor are we seeing persistent inflation

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Speaker 8: any longer. So I'd say that term has perhaps lost

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Speaker 8: its purpose just at the moment. We have other problems

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Speaker 8: certainly ahead of us, and that is is how we

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Speaker 8: deal with perhaps not having had this fallout, not having

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Speaker 8: had this recession. You know, how real essentially is this

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Speaker 8: growth you mean, and how sustainable is that? But I'd

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Speaker 8: say inflation for now somewhat in the rear view mirror.

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Speaker 4: All right, If that's in the rearview mirror. Even as

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Speaker 4: a chief global market strategist, where do you see opportunities

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Speaker 4: on a global scale.

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Speaker 9: Well, it's interesting.

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Speaker 8: We've always been global investors, and that has been a

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Speaker 8: very difficult position to maintain because we have had high

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Speaker 8: conviction outside the US, even at a time when the

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Speaker 8: dollar was strong and there was persistent under performance. So

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Speaker 8: what we are cheered to see is that there has

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Speaker 8: been this broadening of the market strength, and we still

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Speaker 8: see that even though that there is there's been a

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Speaker 8: come back in the last few days. We can see

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Speaker 8: that there has been a broadening beyond tech, a broadening

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Speaker 8: beyond large cap only into mid cap and small cap,

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Speaker 8: and certainly beyond the US. We've seen some decent performance

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Speaker 8: out of Europe, decent performance out of the UK finally

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Speaker 8: after lagging for about fourteen months there, and then of

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Speaker 8: course stellar performance from Japan, and a resurrection of hope

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Speaker 8: and expectation around China post COVID and post some of

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Speaker 8: that overhang. So I'd say we're seeing this kind of

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Speaker 8: commonality now of themes on a global basis. Where do

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Speaker 8: we see opportunity. We see it in the divergence in

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Speaker 8: the fact that the dollar cannot stay long forever. We've

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Speaker 8: seen some weakening there. We start to see divergence among

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Speaker 8: central banks and how they're likely to perform. Who's going

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Speaker 8: to go quickly on as a perform I mean, what

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Speaker 8: they're likely to do in terms of the interest rates.

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Speaker 8: ECB likely to go before either Bank of England or

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Speaker 8: the fed that's leading to some divergence which will manifest

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Speaker 8: in the currencies. So that's where we're seeing it. And

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Speaker 8: then of course you have single stock areas like say

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Speaker 8: the Novo Nordisks of this world that clearly are stellar

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Speaker 8: success stories. And if you do not have global exposure,

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Speaker 8: you do not have the optionality that exposure to that

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Speaker 8: would give you.

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Speaker 4: But I think if if I were a portfolio manager,

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Speaker 4: even I think I'd be very lazy. I think what

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Speaker 4: I would do is just go by big tech and

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Speaker 4: then stick my head in the send and hope for

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Speaker 4: the best. I mean, and that's kind of worked for me.

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Speaker 8: I guess we should never underestimate what's sitting in a

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Speaker 8: room and doing nothing, I think, which is always been

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Speaker 8: perhaps the good response in riding out some of this volatility.

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Speaker 8: The problem with that is this is a momentum trait,

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Speaker 8: and chasing momentum has often ended in tears for investors.

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Speaker 8: So we have not been too tactical, try to be

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Speaker 8: too clever around this momentum. We're even seeing signs of

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Speaker 8: that spending is highly selective right now that if we

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Speaker 8: look at CAPEX beyond spending say on cybersecurity and on

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Speaker 8: tech or on AI investments. Ppex is actually coming down

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Speaker 8: in other areas. So that's the story for corporates, that's

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Speaker 8: the story for consumers. We see that in the salesforce numbers,

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Speaker 8: in the American airlines numbers, and we're going we're interesting

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Speaker 8: to see what Costco comes out with today. But I

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Speaker 8: suspect on the food side people are still spending well,

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Speaker 8: but selective spending is the order of the day, So

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Speaker 8: there will be some cracks in the AI.

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Speaker 9: Theisis because quite frankly.

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Speaker 8: No one really knows where we're going with this in

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Speaker 8: terms of its impact. There's a lot of hype and momentum,

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Speaker 8: so all in there would be a precarious position across.

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Speaker 1: A kitchen table and Ethan, I mean in the United Kingdom,

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Speaker 1: you've brought in some Gregs, the cheese.

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Speaker 2: And the onion roll, and you're there with tea not coffee.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, brown stuff.

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Speaker 1: But if you're there across a kitchen table right now

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Speaker 1: and you've missed this equity surge, how do you get

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Speaker 1: into the market into the summer of twenty twenty four?

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Speaker 8: Great question, Well, first question, you get in how you

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Speaker 8: always get in, which is gradually and staggering, and I

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Speaker 8: don't mean staggering as if you consume too much of

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Speaker 8: that ale, but you know staggering and the way we

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Speaker 8: all at all a cost averaging, and that that is

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Speaker 8: of course how you do it. You definitely want to

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Speaker 8: have that spread out around the time of a geopolitical event.

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Speaker 8: We have elections in the UK on Independence Day on

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Speaker 8: the fourth of July, There'll be elections here in early

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Speaker 8: November in the US and early November, so clearly we

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Speaker 8: need to be mindful that those events are likely to

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Speaker 8: cause some volatility in markets, and we're already seeing that

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Speaker 8: in the volatility and fixed income that will manifest inequity markets.

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Speaker 8: So you stagger entry. You then make sure that it

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Speaker 8: is broad based across sectors. You don't try to be

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Speaker 8: too tactical, because ultimately we can't predict where different sectors

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Speaker 8: are going to be, but we do know that certainly

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Speaker 8: by the way Passive is performing, that is certainly a

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Speaker 8: broad based exposure is the way to be even devid.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Chief Global Strategus Minetta Group. Just

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Speaker 2: love to have her on this morning. You tell you

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Speaker 2: look at the front pages. She's never been in a

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Speaker 2: golden Goose. But boy does she have some.

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Speaker 7: Newspaper stories to that will everywhere those given word.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, all right, We're gonna start with this story.

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Speaker 7: It came out yesterday the New York Times, CNBC reporting

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Speaker 7: Nelson Peltz no longer an investor in Disney. You remember

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Speaker 7: the battle to get on Disney's board, right, He controlled

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Speaker 7: three and a half billion dollars in Disney snock, So

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Speaker 7: this is kind of taking that pressure off Disney. So

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Speaker 7: a big part of his chunk was owned by Ike

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Speaker 7: Pearl Mutter. He's a former chairman of Marvel Entertainment. So

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Speaker 7: Sorcerers saying that Pelts has now sold off his.

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Speaker 9: Portion of those shares. But here's the thing.

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Speaker 7: I mean, he's not going away empty handed because Disney

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Speaker 7: stocks risn't about fifteen percent in the past year. SORCER's

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Speaker 7: saying he sold his Disney snock at one hundred and

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Speaker 7: twenty dollars a ship.

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Speaker 2: I'll jump in here.

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Speaker 1: Ten year return on Disney is three point seventy five

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Speaker 1: percent per year yep, for the last ten years. What

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Speaker 1: Pelts got out of this with a profit, right he did?

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Speaker 4: It was amazing.

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Speaker 2: Did Eiger get out of this with a proct.

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Speaker 4: Well still to be seen at you know, Al from Jersey.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure if he came out with a profit either.

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Speaker 4: But again, this is just a real challenging issue for

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Speaker 4: Disney and for the meat industry in general. Tom. They're

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Speaker 4: trying to figure out how do they make a business

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Speaker 4: out of this.

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Speaker 1: Stream I've always said this someday when Lisa helped me here.

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Speaker 1: They all came out with the streaming and I'm about

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00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 1: ready to cancel two or three of them, and I'm

439
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Speaker 1: going mental this weekend.

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00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 2: But the bottom line is Disney.

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00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 1: I look at is okay, Star Wars and lots of

442
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: Cinderella and all the rest for kids.

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00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:38,639
Speaker 2: What does the new Disney look like?

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00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 4: I think the new Disney looks like a theme park

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00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 4: company with some media assets. No, but I mean the

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00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,199
Speaker 4: streaming service streaming services.

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00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 2: Look at the chick lits on your TV.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I know Hulu, I know, I know Netflix.

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00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 2: What's Disney?

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Speaker 7: Well, the Mandalorian is their big push too, I mean yeah,

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Speaker 7: Star Wars.

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00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's all the franchisees, Like, yeah, they're gonna try

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Speaker 4: to milk their franchises as they should because they have

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00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,880
Speaker 4: their best franchises in Hollywood. But even that they've seen

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00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 4: some pushback on some of their franchises that maybe they've

456
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 4: overdone it, oversaturated it, so they pushed some of those

457
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 4: movie releases back. But Nelson Peltz, he made a couple

458
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 4: shekels on that investment.

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00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 7: Yeah for next Okay, you know that big ginormous residential

460
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 7: tower four thirty two Park.

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00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 9: Okay, it's tall, it's thin.

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00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 4: Central Park, if you're lying in Central Park, shortly.

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00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 7: The tallest residential building in the Western Hemisphere.

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Speaker 9: Okay, it had that. It had people like Jennifer Lopez

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00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 9: lived there. Okay, so it had his big reputation. But

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00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 9: now apparently it's going through some problems.

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00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 7: It had a twenty twenty one lawsuit that Condominimum Board

468
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 7: that says there were noise issues, leaks, malfunctioning elevators. So

469
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 7: the problem is that a lot of the people who

470
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 7: owned are now trying to get out of it, and

471
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 7: they're lowering their prices. So since the lawsuit, there's been

472
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 7: a number of units for sale, homeowners unloading properties for

473
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 7: a loss, even would be sellers cutting prices.

474
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,159
Speaker 4: I'm looking for a unit there for Tom Keane. The

475
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 4: Building's pen House. Building's Penhouse was recently a discount to

476
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 4: one hundred and five million, down from the original asker

477
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 4: price one hundred and sixty nine million. So I think

478
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 4: we're getting down into the TK level here to get

479
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 4: the Penhouse, which does have phenomenal use.

480
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 1: That's great about it is if you're there and I

481
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,479
Speaker 1: can take the Aston Martin across the street to the

482
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 1: Eston Martin dealer show.

483
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, there you go. Convenience.

484
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 1: But this building for those of you across the nation,

485
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: this building is on Fancy Park Avenue, right down the

486
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 1: street from James Diamond's new tower, farther up from Griffin's

487
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: Tower to be built over the next six years. The

488
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: other towers Paul are sort of in the middle of nowhere.

489
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 4: In fifty seven. Yeah, I don't get it. And again,

490
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,159
Speaker 4: if you're sitting if you're literally lying down in the

491
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 4: in the in the park Central Park catching some rays

492
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 4: on a summer day, the sun will be blocked by

493
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 4: some of these buildings. It's just ridiculous.

494
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 9: I mean, it's just the whole landscape of the sky line.

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00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 2: Don't get me gone. Yeah, I'll get next.

496
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 4: Let's move on, all right.

497
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,359
Speaker 7: So how about this apple looking to kind of set

498
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 7: aside its rivalry with Android because they want to put

499
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 7: Apple TV Plus possibly onto androids.

500
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 9: So this is a big thing. Bloomberg is saying.

501
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 7: There was a job posting that shows they were looking

502
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 7: for the senior engineer to help build a television and

503
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 7: sports app for Android, and the reason is because it

504
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 7: competes with the iOS platform. So this is a big

505
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 7: thing for Apple.

506
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 9: To go onto an Android. So that's what they're talking about.

507
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,719
Speaker 7: But they never Apple tv plus never talks about how

508
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 7: many subscribers they have or how much revenue. But Android

509
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 7: could really give it that boost because Android actually has

510
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 7: more users globally Apple.

511
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,880
Speaker 4: In the Sweeney household, we have one of our offspring

512
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 4: is Android and the rest of the staple. Yeah, just one.

513
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,679
Speaker 4: And so he's shunned. He's not in any of the groups.

514
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 2: Everybody else's.

515
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's at Lockheed. He's Rocket scientists, and he says

516
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 4: it's superior to iOS before we.

517
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 1: Just look, I got the same what's interesting about this? Sleep,

518
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 1: So I'm so glad you put this in here quickly, Paul.

519
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,639
Speaker 1: This thing coming up in June with Apple. Yeah, and

520
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,719
Speaker 1: I think the bombshell is going to be with Google.

521
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 4: That's I couldn't Yeah, yeah, so my amateur prediction. And

522
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 4: as Tom's referencing, they have a developer conference June tent

523
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 4: for Apple and a lot of folks are saying this

524
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 4: is going to be the AI event for Apple.

525
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 2: One more quickly.

526
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 7: Next, yes, sure, screen time before bed? When do you

527
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 7: turn off your screens?

528
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 9: Is it like an hour?

529
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 1: Two?

530
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 4: No phone's in the bedroom?

531
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 7: No phones in the bedroom? Good for you, okay, because

532
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 7: there was that rule. No, maybe two hours before bed

533
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 7: to turn it off because it can. The problem is

534
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 7: that it suppresses melatonin, so it doesn't let you fall

535
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 7: asleep as easily. But now they're study saying that that

536
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 7: might not be true, so some people could be more

537
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 7: sensitive to the blue light than others. They're saying it

538
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 7: varies depending on person to person, so you don't have

539
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 7: to follow that role if you want. There are some strategies.

540
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 9: Here's what you can do.

541
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 7: You can set an alarm on your phone so that

542
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 7: it goes off when you have to go to bed.

543
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 7: You turn off your notification please time. I know my

544
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 7: husband's unifications wake me up in the middle of the night.

545
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 9: I hate it. It's annoying.

546
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 7: Please, And you can keep a sleep journal, Tom a

547
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 7: sleep sleep journal. Yes, you can say what works and

548
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 7: what doesn't work for you so you can get some

549
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 7: better sleep trash.

550
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,159
Speaker 1: You can't even say it with a straight because a

551
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: sleep journal.

552
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

553
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best

554
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:29,600
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555
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:33,719
Speaker 1: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast

556
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:37,880
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557
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559
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560
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