1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:28,524 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:28,564 --> 00:00:32,724 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova and I'm Nate Silver. So 3 00:00:32,844 --> 00:00:35,364 Speaker 1: today on the show, Nate, we'll be talking about kind 4 00:00:35,404 --> 00:00:40,844 Speaker 1: of core risky business topic, which is, you know, poker, sports, betting, gambling, 5 00:00:40,964 --> 00:00:44,004 Speaker 1: all of these things. We'll be talking about the two 6 00:00:44,124 --> 00:00:47,444 Speaker 1: indictments that came out a last week on Thursday, the 7 00:00:47,524 --> 00:00:54,084 Speaker 1: twenty third, that involve NBA players other personalities who allegedly 8 00:00:54,164 --> 00:00:58,084 Speaker 1: took part in some unsavory cheating behaviors. 9 00:00:58,124 --> 00:01:02,284 Speaker 2: It's a little bit like two federal indictments, five mafia families, 10 00:01:02,404 --> 00:01:08,084 Speaker 2: eight co conspirators, and a partridge. It's sorry, it's almost Please. 11 00:01:07,964 --> 00:01:11,524 Speaker 1: Please continue, Nate, can you have you have some very 12 00:01:11,724 --> 00:01:14,324 Speaker 1: Christmas y lights behind you? Because you are not in 13 00:01:14,404 --> 00:01:14,844 Speaker 1: New York. 14 00:01:15,604 --> 00:01:18,084 Speaker 2: I am in FBI. No, I'm just kidding. I am 15 00:01:18,084 --> 00:01:20,604 Speaker 2: in Ciudad de Mexico. I'm in Mexico City. I'm not 16 00:01:20,644 --> 00:01:22,204 Speaker 2: supposed to be in Mexico City right now. I am 17 00:01:22,244 --> 00:01:24,404 Speaker 2: supposed to have flown down tonight. But you know, there 18 00:01:24,484 --> 00:01:29,084 Speaker 2: was some at least good risky business airline strategy employed 19 00:01:29,444 --> 00:01:32,564 Speaker 2: last night, which is why I'm getting out today and 20 00:01:32,644 --> 00:01:35,444 Speaker 2: instead of staying even longer, and didn't bring my microphone. Right, 21 00:01:35,484 --> 00:01:38,204 Speaker 2: That's why I had my phone dangling from my headphones 22 00:01:38,844 --> 00:01:43,244 Speaker 2: and at the El Camino Reale hotel near Terminal ones 23 00:01:43,804 --> 00:01:46,964 Speaker 2: of whatever it's called Benito a Quires Airport. Although I 24 00:01:47,004 --> 00:01:49,404 Speaker 2: did make a good decision yesterday Maria talked about like 25 00:01:49,764 --> 00:01:54,004 Speaker 2: decisions under pressure. So get in the flight, you know, 26 00:01:54,084 --> 00:01:56,204 Speaker 2: little s flow on the tarmac after about Actually, I 27 00:01:56,204 --> 00:01:57,924 Speaker 2: don't think we've even pushed off the tarmac, right, And 28 00:01:58,004 --> 00:02:00,924 Speaker 2: the pilot is like, well, we're just taking care of 29 00:02:01,044 --> 00:02:05,164 Speaker 2: some just paperwork right here, right, And I feel like 30 00:02:05,204 --> 00:02:07,804 Speaker 2: I'm already being like gas lit a little bit, like 31 00:02:07,804 --> 00:02:09,764 Speaker 2: you said, another forty minutes or so on, okay for work. 32 00:02:09,764 --> 00:02:11,564 Speaker 2: And then he comes back on. And by the way, 33 00:02:11,604 --> 00:02:12,204 Speaker 2: I can tell me. 34 00:02:12,204 --> 00:02:14,764 Speaker 1: Forty minutes on the paperwork night, that's never I mean, 35 00:02:15,244 --> 00:02:17,364 Speaker 1: taking care of some paperwork is not forty minutes. 36 00:02:18,684 --> 00:02:23,684 Speaker 2: I'm an experienced flyer. I can tell within microseconds by 37 00:02:23,724 --> 00:02:26,804 Speaker 2: the tone of the pilot's voice just how bad the 38 00:02:26,804 --> 00:02:29,044 Speaker 2: news is. Right, So it's like another delay for like, 39 00:02:29,044 --> 00:02:32,244 Speaker 2: so we're now like an hour and thirty forty minutes 40 00:02:32,284 --> 00:02:34,644 Speaker 2: without having pushed back from the gate and now there's 41 00:02:34,684 --> 00:02:38,324 Speaker 2: some clarity. That's an engine problem with an undetermined time 42 00:02:38,404 --> 00:02:40,884 Speaker 2: of resolution. Right, I start using what little Wi Fi 43 00:02:40,924 --> 00:02:43,524 Speaker 2: I have to ask, not that you can congress with 44 00:02:43,524 --> 00:02:45,724 Speaker 2: your own comment sense of up being a prequent flyer, right, 45 00:02:45,724 --> 00:02:49,164 Speaker 2: but like I asked chat GPT and Claude like, what 46 00:02:49,244 --> 00:02:51,084 Speaker 2: are the chances that we're really going to get off 47 00:02:52,364 --> 00:02:53,324 Speaker 2: on this flight tonight? 48 00:02:53,444 --> 00:02:53,644 Speaker 1: Right? 49 00:02:54,404 --> 00:02:57,364 Speaker 2: And Claude's like, Yo, they're gaslighting you bro. 50 00:03:00,044 --> 00:03:03,004 Speaker 1: Claude tells it like it is, they're gaslighting you bro. 51 00:03:03,724 --> 00:03:05,284 Speaker 2: You enough to know what are you talking about? Thirty 52 00:03:05,284 --> 00:03:09,724 Speaker 2: percent chance? Right? And then we deplane and then Claude's like, immediately, no, 53 00:03:10,124 --> 00:03:12,884 Speaker 2: readbook your ticket and so and so we did, and 54 00:03:12,924 --> 00:03:14,764 Speaker 2: so we got I think one of the relatively few 55 00:03:14,964 --> 00:03:17,764 Speaker 2: seats available on the same flight today, probably gonna be 56 00:03:17,764 --> 00:03:20,124 Speaker 2: a middle seat. Not gonna lie Maria, Probably gonna be 57 00:03:20,124 --> 00:03:24,524 Speaker 2: middle seed. But like I'd rather in Houston or something. 58 00:03:24,524 --> 00:03:27,764 Speaker 2: But the important thing is you have to act quickly, yes, 59 00:03:27,964 --> 00:03:30,804 Speaker 2: in these air trabal decision might mears. After my partner 60 00:03:30,844 --> 00:03:32,804 Speaker 2: and I checked in, we went back up to the 61 00:03:32,804 --> 00:03:34,604 Speaker 2: lobby to go get a uber to dinner, and like 62 00:03:34,644 --> 00:03:37,564 Speaker 2: there's a line an hour and a half long. Everybody 63 00:03:37,604 --> 00:03:40,364 Speaker 2: asked from our flight, who did not behave so proactively? 64 00:03:40,604 --> 00:03:44,404 Speaker 2: Who will gaslet by like Delta, but Delta Airlines, you 65 00:03:44,404 --> 00:03:46,044 Speaker 2: know you owe me one, you only one. You owe 66 00:03:46,044 --> 00:03:50,284 Speaker 2: me a free flight somewhere probably, so act decisively. Sometimes 67 00:03:50,364 --> 00:03:52,884 Speaker 2: equilibrium of like oh, let's kind of wait and see 68 00:03:53,004 --> 00:03:55,684 Speaker 2: is like actually quite quite a bad equilibrium. 69 00:03:56,164 --> 00:03:59,164 Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, that's really good advice. I'm gonna echo that 70 00:03:59,364 --> 00:04:01,644 Speaker 1: act quickly, and when it seems like it's going wrong, 71 00:04:01,684 --> 00:04:04,964 Speaker 1: it'll probably go wrong. But now let's uh, let's turn 72 00:04:05,084 --> 00:04:09,244 Speaker 1: to uh the hot topic of the day, which is 73 00:04:09,604 --> 00:04:12,884 Speaker 1: so in the risky business domain, it's not even funny 74 00:04:13,524 --> 00:04:18,484 Speaker 1: core risky business. Nate, has anything been happening with the 75 00:04:18,604 --> 00:04:22,604 Speaker 1: NBA and sports bedding and poker? I don't think there's 76 00:04:22,644 --> 00:04:23,764 Speaker 1: anything in the news, do you. 77 00:04:24,484 --> 00:04:26,964 Speaker 2: It's been an exciting start to the NBA season. Victor 78 00:04:26,924 --> 00:04:29,564 Speaker 2: Womanyana it looks like it, and Women Yama looks like 79 00:04:29,564 --> 00:04:33,324 Speaker 2: an MVP already. Steph Curry has already had big comebacks. 80 00:04:33,324 --> 00:04:36,604 Speaker 2: I'm a big NBA fan. But which day was it? 81 00:04:36,604 --> 00:04:40,764 Speaker 2: It was Thursday? I think early Morre? Yeah, is that right? Yep? 82 00:04:40,804 --> 00:04:46,204 Speaker 1: So it was Thursday. The twenty third of October. 83 00:04:46,284 --> 00:04:51,604 Speaker 2: So there are two funeral indictments which at first might 84 00:04:51,644 --> 00:04:55,604 Speaker 2: appear unrelated but actually have a lot of co conspirators, 85 00:04:55,684 --> 00:04:58,044 Speaker 2: as they are called. And remember, the things we're gonna 86 00:04:58,044 --> 00:05:02,084 Speaker 2: be discussing here are allegations. Marie and I are not lawyers. 87 00:05:02,244 --> 00:05:06,604 Speaker 2: We have right right as journalists and citizens to engage 88 00:05:06,644 --> 00:05:09,164 Speaker 2: in beaesy and priors about how likely some of these 89 00:05:09,164 --> 00:05:13,244 Speaker 2: things are. But they are accusations, allegations. They are not 90 00:05:13,804 --> 00:05:17,044 Speaker 2: approven yet they are disputed by their clients lawyers in 91 00:05:17,044 --> 00:05:20,644 Speaker 2: at least some cases. But two big federal indictments, one 92 00:05:20,684 --> 00:05:24,684 Speaker 2: of which concerns cheating essentially at sports betting. There are 93 00:05:24,684 --> 00:05:28,164 Speaker 2: a couple of different forms of this. So one form 94 00:05:28,244 --> 00:05:31,524 Speaker 2: involves one particular NBA player named Terriett Rogier, who is 95 00:05:31,604 --> 00:05:35,004 Speaker 2: kind of a fortieth percentile mediocre NBA player but has 96 00:05:35,004 --> 00:05:37,444 Speaker 2: still made over one hundred million dollars in his career, 97 00:05:37,804 --> 00:05:42,324 Speaker 2: allegedly removing himself from games early to help his co 98 00:05:42,324 --> 00:05:46,284 Speaker 2: conspirators win prop bets. Now, look, our audience probably will 99 00:05:46,284 --> 00:05:49,444 Speaker 2: know more about prop bets than the average bear. But 100 00:05:49,684 --> 00:05:52,604 Speaker 2: if you're not familiar, if you think about sports betting, 101 00:05:52,644 --> 00:05:54,284 Speaker 2: you might think about. Okay, I can vote bet on 102 00:05:54,484 --> 00:05:56,324 Speaker 2: quite spreads. I could been on money lines, which is 103 00:05:56,324 --> 00:05:58,764 Speaker 2: just the percent the odds, the percentage chance that the 104 00:05:58,804 --> 00:06:02,884 Speaker 2: team wins, or totals or over unders as they're sometimes called, right, 105 00:06:02,964 --> 00:06:05,404 Speaker 2: and you can bet on the future, as has he 106 00:06:05,444 --> 00:06:08,244 Speaker 2: won the Super Bowl, that kind of thing. However, recently, 107 00:06:08,324 --> 00:06:10,804 Speaker 2: you can also bet on how individual players will do, 108 00:06:10,884 --> 00:06:14,084 Speaker 2: and it almost doesn't seem to matter how obscure the 109 00:06:14,124 --> 00:06:18,004 Speaker 2: player is. So Terry Rozier is a mediocre player. Jontay 110 00:06:18,044 --> 00:06:20,524 Speaker 2: Porter is a player who is less than mediocre and 111 00:06:20,724 --> 00:06:22,924 Speaker 2: was suspended for life by the NBA last year for 112 00:06:23,484 --> 00:06:27,324 Speaker 2: a I guess proven to the NBA satisfaction allegation of 113 00:06:27,764 --> 00:06:30,444 Speaker 2: a similar scheme. Right, you're like, hey, look, I bet 114 00:06:30,444 --> 00:06:33,004 Speaker 2: the under bros on this. I'm going to ask out 115 00:06:33,004 --> 00:06:35,804 Speaker 2: of the game after the first quarter, right, cite some injury, 116 00:06:35,884 --> 00:06:38,564 Speaker 2: and then you'll cash in big on your underbets. Right, 117 00:06:38,564 --> 00:06:43,644 Speaker 2: It's like allegation one A. Allegation one B concerns inside 118 00:06:43,684 --> 00:06:49,724 Speaker 2: information leaking to the gamblers about the availability of key 119 00:06:49,884 --> 00:06:55,484 Speaker 2: NBA players. So a person named co Conspirator eight, who 120 00:06:55,564 --> 00:06:58,564 Speaker 2: is almost certainly because the clues are not very subtle. 121 00:06:59,084 --> 00:07:02,924 Speaker 2: Currently suspended Portland Trailblazers coach Chauncy Billups, a former member 122 00:07:03,004 --> 00:07:05,684 Speaker 2: of the Detroit Pistons other teams who has now been 123 00:07:05,724 --> 00:07:07,644 Speaker 2: suspended by the league, but a Hall of Fame player 124 00:07:08,164 --> 00:07:13,444 Speaker 2: who allegedly tip off his gambling buddies about when key 125 00:07:13,484 --> 00:07:16,244 Speaker 2: personal that we're going to participate. Damian Jones is a 126 00:07:16,244 --> 00:07:19,524 Speaker 2: Los Angeles Lakers former player. Actually, Damian Jones is like 127 00:07:19,564 --> 00:07:22,684 Speaker 2: a confidant of Lebron James. Lebron James is not accused 128 00:07:22,684 --> 00:07:24,924 Speaker 2: of anything whatsoever, but like he was a friend who 129 00:07:25,004 --> 00:07:27,324 Speaker 2: had access to like is Lebron practicing house he feeling 130 00:07:28,004 --> 00:07:30,164 Speaker 2: Knowing whether Lebron James will play in a game obviously 131 00:07:30,244 --> 00:07:32,204 Speaker 2: very important if you're trying to bet on the Lakers 132 00:07:32,284 --> 00:07:34,804 Speaker 2: or against the Lakers for that matter. Right, and there 133 00:07:34,804 --> 00:07:39,244 Speaker 2: are several allegations of inside information leaking before it became 134 00:07:39,244 --> 00:07:43,604 Speaker 2: publicly known according to the NBA's officially very diligent injury 135 00:07:43,644 --> 00:07:47,084 Speaker 2: reporting protocols. Right and by the way, this most has 136 00:07:47,084 --> 00:07:49,804 Speaker 2: happened in the twenty twenty two twenty three NBA season, 137 00:07:50,604 --> 00:07:52,444 Speaker 2: which is a year where I bet the regular season 138 00:07:53,004 --> 00:07:55,804 Speaker 2: every day. It was kind of an experiment side hustle 139 00:07:55,844 --> 00:07:57,084 Speaker 2: for the book to see what the ins and outs 140 00:07:57,124 --> 00:08:00,964 Speaker 2: like really were for a professional gambler, and so some 141 00:08:01,004 --> 00:08:04,764 Speaker 2: of the stuff looked fishy in real time. The second 142 00:08:04,804 --> 00:08:06,324 Speaker 2: indictment is. 143 00:08:06,324 --> 00:08:09,244 Speaker 1: For the creation Royal Flush operation. 144 00:08:09,764 --> 00:08:11,604 Speaker 2: Can you try a little harder? 145 00:08:11,844 --> 00:08:12,004 Speaker 1: Right? 146 00:08:15,724 --> 00:08:20,204 Speaker 2: Can you try? Like, I don't know Operation Flows or 147 00:08:20,884 --> 00:08:21,364 Speaker 2: I don't know. 148 00:08:21,364 --> 00:08:25,604 Speaker 1: Operation Royal Flush Night. Yeah, this one is poker related 149 00:08:26,044 --> 00:08:32,164 Speaker 1: about cheating in games from La Vegas, New York, even 150 00:08:32,204 --> 00:08:35,804 Speaker 1: the Hamptons. I realized that's also New York, but games 151 00:08:35,844 --> 00:08:38,244 Speaker 1: all over the country. And there's one person who's in 152 00:08:38,284 --> 00:08:41,804 Speaker 1: both indictments, we assume because as you said, person of 153 00:08:41,844 --> 00:08:44,924 Speaker 1: interest to you know, eight in indictment number one is 154 00:08:45,044 --> 00:08:49,004 Speaker 1: probably Chauncey Billips. Chauncey Bilps is named in indictment number two. 155 00:08:49,524 --> 00:08:54,124 Speaker 1: And these were illegal underground games where lots of famous 156 00:08:54,164 --> 00:08:58,564 Speaker 1: faces they're known as the face cards in the indictment night. 157 00:08:59,284 --> 00:09:02,764 Speaker 1: A lot of famous players and you know, famous personalities 158 00:09:02,924 --> 00:09:06,724 Speaker 1: were in games. Some of them were apparently involved in this, 159 00:09:07,004 --> 00:09:10,044 Speaker 1: allegedly involved in this. The games were correct, good, there 160 00:09:10,044 --> 00:09:14,044 Speaker 1: were crooked car shufflers, there were X ray tables, there 161 00:09:14,124 --> 00:09:19,324 Speaker 1: were sunglasses and contact onses and basically I don't even 162 00:09:19,404 --> 00:09:21,844 Speaker 1: understand like it's like layer upon layer upon layer. If 163 00:09:21,844 --> 00:09:24,924 Speaker 1: the technology of cheating exists, it seems like they used 164 00:09:24,924 --> 00:09:27,484 Speaker 1: it at one point or another in these games. And 165 00:09:27,524 --> 00:09:29,924 Speaker 1: the most striking thing Nate about all of these things is, 166 00:09:29,964 --> 00:09:32,884 Speaker 1: it's the first time I've seen, you know, the famous 167 00:09:32,884 --> 00:09:37,684 Speaker 1: New York crime families working together. You know, it's the 168 00:09:37,764 --> 00:09:39,844 Speaker 1: five families, is what you traditionally think of. In this 169 00:09:39,884 --> 00:09:42,444 Speaker 1: particular case, four of them are in the indictment, But 170 00:09:42,804 --> 00:09:45,964 Speaker 1: in my mind, it's the five families uniting for a 171 00:09:46,004 --> 00:09:48,964 Speaker 1: worthy cost, which is, there are so many suckers here, 172 00:09:49,484 --> 00:09:52,644 Speaker 1: let's see how we can fleece them, because allegedly they 173 00:09:52,684 --> 00:09:56,564 Speaker 1: were all involved in these games, in backing them and 174 00:09:56,604 --> 00:10:00,324 Speaker 1: helping them take place, and in helping to collect outstanding 175 00:10:00,404 --> 00:10:04,484 Speaker 1: debt when people lost over seven million dollars. I mean 176 00:10:04,524 --> 00:10:07,364 Speaker 1: that's for poker. Like I understand that for a basketball 177 00:10:07,404 --> 00:10:10,324 Speaker 1: player who makes hundreds of millions, million might not seem 178 00:10:10,364 --> 00:10:12,004 Speaker 1: like a lot, but for a poker game, you know, 179 00:10:12,204 --> 00:10:14,924 Speaker 1: seven point one million dollars, that's a lot of money. 180 00:10:15,604 --> 00:10:19,684 Speaker 2: What I've never done is play in an underground game 181 00:10:19,724 --> 00:10:22,524 Speaker 2: as opposed to a home game. To me, the big 182 00:10:22,564 --> 00:10:25,364 Speaker 2: distinction is not as complicate as people are making it 183 00:10:25,364 --> 00:10:28,644 Speaker 2: out to be. Is are they taking a rake exactly 184 00:10:28,724 --> 00:10:30,004 Speaker 2: or a profit? Right? 185 00:10:30,484 --> 00:10:33,404 Speaker 1: If they are, And by the way, let's just caveat 186 00:10:33,444 --> 00:10:37,244 Speaker 1: this for one second, people who are our poker listeners. 187 00:10:37,764 --> 00:10:40,644 Speaker 1: Rake means that out of every pot played. So say 188 00:10:40,724 --> 00:10:43,244 Speaker 1: Nate and I are in a hand together. Nate, that's 189 00:10:44,124 --> 00:10:47,564 Speaker 1: ten dollars, and I call the ten dollars. So there's 190 00:10:47,604 --> 00:10:51,124 Speaker 1: twenty dollars in the middle, and the house will take, 191 00:10:51,484 --> 00:10:53,364 Speaker 1: depending on the rake, let's say a dollar out of 192 00:10:53,404 --> 00:10:55,684 Speaker 1: it or two dollars out of it, you know, whatever 193 00:10:55,724 --> 00:10:57,924 Speaker 1: it is, and that will go towards the house. That's 194 00:10:57,964 --> 00:10:59,964 Speaker 1: the rake. You take a cut out of every pot 195 00:11:00,164 --> 00:11:03,364 Speaker 1: that's in the middle, just automatically, as like a fee, 196 00:11:03,524 --> 00:11:05,724 Speaker 1: a courtesy fee for running the game. And that is 197 00:11:05,764 --> 00:11:09,404 Speaker 1: not legal. So, even though home games are legal almost everywhere, 198 00:11:09,444 --> 00:11:11,124 Speaker 1: if you don't take rake, as soon as you rake them, 199 00:11:11,124 --> 00:11:12,684 Speaker 1: it becomes completely illegal. 200 00:11:13,604 --> 00:11:16,604 Speaker 2: Yeah, and we should clarify a couple of things here, right. 201 00:11:16,804 --> 00:11:19,204 Speaker 2: You know, all of the home games I play and 202 00:11:19,484 --> 00:11:25,964 Speaker 2: include some collection for booze catering if you bring in 203 00:11:26,004 --> 00:11:29,484 Speaker 2: an external dealer, So if there are shared expenses, I mean, 204 00:11:29,564 --> 00:11:32,844 Speaker 2: if somebody is the host. Nothing says they have to 205 00:11:32,844 --> 00:11:36,444 Speaker 2: like eat all the expenses themselves, right, But they're not 206 00:11:36,484 --> 00:11:38,724 Speaker 2: trying to directly profit them game. Maybe they're trying to 207 00:11:38,724 --> 00:11:40,364 Speaker 2: build a network, Maybe they're maybe they think they're a 208 00:11:40,404 --> 00:11:42,924 Speaker 2: winning player in the game, but they're not. They don't 209 00:11:42,924 --> 00:11:45,244 Speaker 2: make money per hand or per hour just by the 210 00:11:45,324 --> 00:11:47,844 Speaker 2: mere act of running a poker game, right. That's that's 211 00:11:47,884 --> 00:11:49,684 Speaker 2: the one clear distinction. By the way, if you want 212 00:11:49,684 --> 00:11:53,524 Speaker 2: to be technical, you know, check the laws in your 213 00:11:53,604 --> 00:11:56,124 Speaker 2: local state. As far as I am aware, where have 214 00:11:56,204 --> 00:11:58,284 Speaker 2: I ever played private games, I guess New York, California, 215 00:11:58,764 --> 00:12:02,164 Speaker 2: those states, poker is pretty clearly legal, I believe. If 216 00:12:02,164 --> 00:12:04,764 Speaker 2: you're if you're not taking a rake, yep, it was 217 00:12:04,804 --> 00:12:07,084 Speaker 2: gonna be careful. The Feds don't always interpret gambling law 218 00:12:07,164 --> 00:12:09,404 Speaker 2: that sympathetically. If there's a lot of money changing hands, 219 00:12:09,484 --> 00:12:12,764 Speaker 2: if there's you know, if there's a bunch of drug 220 00:12:12,844 --> 00:12:15,004 Speaker 2: use or prostitution or things like that at your game, 221 00:12:15,124 --> 00:12:17,204 Speaker 2: then you know, but typically poker gets kind of like 222 00:12:17,244 --> 00:12:21,484 Speaker 2: caught up, you know. If I had to guess, well, 223 00:12:21,524 --> 00:12:23,684 Speaker 2: I don't know. If I had to guess, I would 224 00:12:23,804 --> 00:12:27,604 Speaker 2: think that the NBA investigation came first, and the poker 225 00:12:27,684 --> 00:12:30,324 Speaker 2: kind of got dragged into it. Maybe that's wrong, but 226 00:12:30,364 --> 00:12:32,324 Speaker 2: in terms of kind of like what things that fed 227 00:12:32,404 --> 00:12:35,764 Speaker 2: typically prioritize more, maybe it's from the poker is actually 228 00:12:35,764 --> 00:12:39,404 Speaker 2: more money allegedly, right and totally more than seven million 229 00:12:39,444 --> 00:12:41,004 Speaker 2: at least quote unquote they say. 230 00:12:41,724 --> 00:12:47,564 Speaker 1: But I would actually think that. I mean, from my perspective, 231 00:12:47,604 --> 00:12:51,084 Speaker 1: it seems like the poker would probably not have been 232 00:12:51,524 --> 00:12:54,124 Speaker 1: that would not have happened without the sports betting because 233 00:12:54,124 --> 00:12:57,364 Speaker 1: in the sports betting there are just many more parties 234 00:12:57,404 --> 00:13:01,924 Speaker 1: that are directly related to state institutions. Right, because now 235 00:13:01,924 --> 00:13:05,644 Speaker 1: that sports betting is legal in over thirty states, states 236 00:13:05,684 --> 00:13:10,484 Speaker 1: are actually reliant on tax revenue sports betting from the 237 00:13:10,484 --> 00:13:13,004 Speaker 1: big companies from all of that legal stuff. So there's 238 00:13:13,124 --> 00:13:15,924 Speaker 1: a lot of Now it's been formalized in such a 239 00:13:15,924 --> 00:13:19,004 Speaker 1: way that like it just draws a lot of attention. 240 00:13:19,084 --> 00:13:22,044 Speaker 1: It's not just an internal NBA thing, right where the 241 00:13:22,124 --> 00:13:25,764 Speaker 1: NBA can say like, oh, I've investigated my player and 242 00:13:26,364 --> 00:13:28,764 Speaker 1: everything seems to be okay or not. But now you 243 00:13:28,844 --> 00:13:34,044 Speaker 1: have all of these different organizations with different incentives. Because 244 00:13:34,084 --> 00:13:36,204 Speaker 1: I think that on its own, like the NBA isn't 245 00:13:36,244 --> 00:13:41,444 Speaker 1: necessarily incentivized to go over after everyone so ardently but together. 246 00:13:41,564 --> 00:13:44,124 Speaker 1: Once you have the sports betting companies, once you have 247 00:13:44,644 --> 00:13:47,084 Speaker 1: state involvement, once you have all of these things, then 248 00:13:47,404 --> 00:13:49,804 Speaker 1: that's where like, that's where shit hits the fan. 249 00:13:54,764 --> 00:14:11,004 Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break. I am 250 00:14:11,444 --> 00:14:14,964 Speaker 2: not as sympathetic to the people who are defrauded. Let's 251 00:14:14,964 --> 00:14:18,324 Speaker 2: say it's not a victimless crime, right, the victims entered 252 00:14:18,364 --> 00:14:19,564 Speaker 2: into this den of iniquity. 253 00:14:20,084 --> 00:14:23,004 Speaker 1: Kind of which fun we're talking about poker now, for poker. 254 00:14:22,724 --> 00:14:27,524 Speaker 2: Right where they're playing games that if you're playing at 255 00:14:27,564 --> 00:14:30,004 Speaker 2: high stakes, you ought to know that there are various 256 00:14:30,084 --> 00:14:32,844 Speaker 2: kinds of risks, right. I mean, it's just like people 257 00:14:32,884 --> 00:14:37,884 Speaker 2: don't realize the extent to which everything that a casino does, 258 00:14:38,204 --> 00:14:41,764 Speaker 2: right from like what they do when you cash your 259 00:14:41,884 --> 00:14:45,524 Speaker 2: cash in for chips, to like you know, burning a 260 00:14:45,604 --> 00:14:50,324 Speaker 2: car before dealing the flop, right, even things people don't 261 00:14:50,364 --> 00:14:53,124 Speaker 2: think about, like you know, why are there where it's 262 00:14:53,164 --> 00:14:55,844 Speaker 2: a two color deck black and red instead of four 263 00:14:55,884 --> 00:14:58,084 Speaker 2: colors which they use in our creatially games sometimes, Well 264 00:14:58,084 --> 00:15:01,644 Speaker 2: it's because like it's hard to distinguish if you want 265 00:15:01,684 --> 00:15:03,284 Speaker 2: to see two colors and black and red kind of 266 00:15:03,284 --> 00:15:06,644 Speaker 2: both appear kind of dark kind of dark hued colors. Right, 267 00:15:07,404 --> 00:15:10,724 Speaker 2: you know if a dealer, secondly you're unmistaken, flashes flush 268 00:15:10,764 --> 00:15:12,964 Speaker 2: as a card, you can see the bottom of the deck, Right, 269 00:15:13,044 --> 00:15:14,564 Speaker 2: it gives you less information if you don't know as 270 00:15:14,604 --> 00:15:16,844 Speaker 2: much about the suit, right, and so like, all these 271 00:15:16,884 --> 00:15:19,924 Speaker 2: procedures that have been put into place for many years 272 00:15:20,284 --> 00:15:26,484 Speaker 2: have made poker and casino environments relatively safe enterprises. Which 273 00:15:26,524 --> 00:15:30,804 Speaker 2: is not equilibrium otherwise, right. Equilibrium otherwise is that you 274 00:15:30,844 --> 00:15:35,204 Speaker 2: know it's someone cheats. Whereas the NBA scandal, it's not 275 00:15:35,284 --> 00:15:39,884 Speaker 2: just that, like the betting companies are defrauded and the 276 00:15:39,924 --> 00:15:43,564 Speaker 2: league is defrauded. It also affects the interests of fans 277 00:15:43,724 --> 00:15:46,044 Speaker 2: and affects the interest like the integrity of the NBA. 278 00:15:46,684 --> 00:15:49,004 Speaker 2: It also affects like people like me who are trying 279 00:15:49,084 --> 00:15:51,524 Speaker 2: to win money the right way at sports betting. Right, 280 00:15:51,564 --> 00:15:53,084 Speaker 2: you can try to read the tea leaves of what 281 00:15:53,164 --> 00:15:55,284 Speaker 2: kind of like a I don't know if you call 282 00:15:55,324 --> 00:15:57,404 Speaker 2: the line rigged, but you know you can often detect 283 00:15:57,444 --> 00:16:01,644 Speaker 2: the presence of frankly of inside information in the line. Right, 284 00:16:01,684 --> 00:16:04,764 Speaker 2: It's hard to know when it's inside information versus like 285 00:16:05,164 --> 00:16:08,604 Speaker 2: when is their sharp movement from a particularly skilled gambler 286 00:16:09,004 --> 00:16:12,164 Speaker 2: or from a syndicate. Right, Billy Walters, the famous and 287 00:16:12,284 --> 00:16:14,524 Speaker 2: I felt another sports better right. You know, he plays 288 00:16:14,564 --> 00:16:16,484 Speaker 2: a lot of action, tends to come in late in 289 00:16:16,524 --> 00:16:21,524 Speaker 2: the day. That's his philosophy, right, And if the book 290 00:16:21,564 --> 00:16:24,244 Speaker 2: makers know which way he's betting, that might move to 291 00:16:24,284 --> 00:16:27,244 Speaker 2: spread materially. Right. But like you, very often, if you've 292 00:16:27,244 --> 00:16:29,804 Speaker 2: been in the NBA, have a sense that somebody knows 293 00:16:29,804 --> 00:16:30,684 Speaker 2: something that I don't. 294 00:16:31,884 --> 00:16:34,524 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's it's really interesting in both of 295 00:16:34,564 --> 00:16:37,804 Speaker 1: these things. I think something that came to my mind 296 00:16:38,004 --> 00:16:41,084 Speaker 1: as someone who has spent a lot of time with 297 00:16:41,124 --> 00:16:44,604 Speaker 1: con artists, right, and in that world, in both you know, 298 00:16:44,644 --> 00:16:49,644 Speaker 1: the sports betting and in poker games, there's this real 299 00:16:50,524 --> 00:16:54,284 Speaker 1: blind spot when it comes to yourself for most people, 300 00:16:54,724 --> 00:16:58,164 Speaker 1: and being objective about kind of your own edge and 301 00:16:58,204 --> 00:17:01,724 Speaker 1: like what you know, what is what is right versus 302 00:17:01,764 --> 00:17:04,844 Speaker 1: not in the sense that like, if you know, the 303 00:17:05,724 --> 00:17:07,884 Speaker 1: cliche is cliche for a reason. If it seems too 304 00:17:07,884 --> 00:17:10,524 Speaker 1: good to be true, right, it probably is. And yet 305 00:17:10,724 --> 00:17:13,524 Speaker 1: right when it comes to you, you think that, oh 306 00:17:13,564 --> 00:17:15,764 Speaker 1: it's not actually too good to be true. I've just 307 00:17:15,804 --> 00:17:17,844 Speaker 1: found a really great spot. I found a really great 308 00:17:17,924 --> 00:17:20,844 Speaker 1: edge et cetera, et cetera. And with sports betting, Nate, 309 00:17:20,924 --> 00:17:24,164 Speaker 1: it's that so unlike poker, which I do play, I've 310 00:17:24,204 --> 00:17:27,884 Speaker 1: never bet on sports still, no, not even once. I've 311 00:17:27,884 --> 00:17:31,804 Speaker 1: never placed to see those sports bet I promised Eric 312 00:17:31,924 --> 00:17:34,204 Speaker 1: Sidell when I first started playing poker, and when he 313 00:17:34,244 --> 00:17:37,124 Speaker 1: agreed to coach me and kind of meant to me, 314 00:17:37,524 --> 00:17:40,004 Speaker 1: he made me promise that I wouldn't sports bet. So 315 00:17:40,444 --> 00:17:45,244 Speaker 1: I have kept that promise. And yeah, he uh, he 316 00:17:45,364 --> 00:17:47,764 Speaker 1: firmly believed that sports betting was the way to ruin 317 00:17:47,884 --> 00:17:50,564 Speaker 1: for a lot of people. Not that I'd become a 318 00:17:50,564 --> 00:17:53,444 Speaker 1: gambling addict, but that he has hardly ever met anyone 319 00:17:53,444 --> 00:17:56,284 Speaker 1: who has a true edge, right, so unless you have information, 320 00:17:56,324 --> 00:17:58,324 Speaker 1: and he, by the ways, bets on sports himself, but 321 00:17:58,364 --> 00:18:00,124 Speaker 1: it's very hard to have an edge. So no, so 322 00:18:00,244 --> 00:18:03,124 Speaker 1: I haven't personally ever bet on sports. However, what you 323 00:18:03,164 --> 00:18:06,084 Speaker 1: were just talking about, I think that there's a lot 324 00:18:06,124 --> 00:18:08,404 Speaker 1: of like, oh, like is this line right? Like you're 325 00:18:08,404 --> 00:18:10,604 Speaker 1: trying to figure out is this too good to be 326 00:18:10,684 --> 00:18:14,964 Speaker 1: true or not? And as you wrote in the Silver 327 00:18:15,004 --> 00:18:17,924 Speaker 1: Bulletin earlier this week, like there were times when you 328 00:18:17,964 --> 00:18:19,684 Speaker 1: took something and it ended up that it was too 329 00:18:19,764 --> 00:18:23,044 Speaker 1: good to be true, right that like it just looked 330 00:18:23,084 --> 00:18:24,724 Speaker 1: so good and you're like, I'm good a bet it anyway, 331 00:18:24,764 --> 00:18:26,604 Speaker 1: and it was too good to be true, and so 332 00:18:27,244 --> 00:18:30,764 Speaker 1: you are like when you are fucking with the integrity 333 00:18:30,804 --> 00:18:33,324 Speaker 1: of it, like you actually are affecting a lot of 334 00:18:33,364 --> 00:18:36,764 Speaker 1: people in very real ways. That's a huge problem. It's 335 00:18:36,764 --> 00:18:39,924 Speaker 1: a problem for poker obviously, but you know, sports are 336 00:18:40,004 --> 00:18:42,524 Speaker 1: kind of America's national pastime, and you have to believe 337 00:18:42,564 --> 00:18:46,124 Speaker 1: that you're watching fair competitions, right, that players are trying 338 00:18:46,164 --> 00:18:49,564 Speaker 1: their best, that everything, like that they want to win, 339 00:18:49,764 --> 00:18:52,484 Speaker 1: like that they're playing their best game, that they're trying 340 00:18:52,564 --> 00:18:56,404 Speaker 1: to kind of do whatever it takes. And if that 341 00:18:56,644 --> 00:19:00,604 Speaker 1: faith is you know, fractured, right, if all of a 342 00:19:00,644 --> 00:19:03,244 Speaker 1: sudden you're like, oh my god, you know that's not 343 00:19:03,324 --> 00:19:05,764 Speaker 1: what's happening. I'm watching something that's rigged, but it's not 344 00:19:05,804 --> 00:19:09,564 Speaker 1: supposed to be rigged, then you I mean, that's heartbreaking 345 00:19:09,644 --> 00:19:13,604 Speaker 1: in some ways, right, It kind of shatters. It shatters 346 00:19:13,604 --> 00:19:15,564 Speaker 1: a dream I think in a lot of licens. 347 00:19:16,844 --> 00:19:18,684 Speaker 2: Let me hit on both the points serial. Let me 348 00:19:18,764 --> 00:19:22,524 Speaker 2: first talk about like both poker players and sports betters 349 00:19:23,644 --> 00:19:28,684 Speaker 2: are often naive about how thin their edges are right, yes, 350 00:19:28,804 --> 00:19:34,044 Speaker 2: Now you know, live cash poker against fish fish or 351 00:19:34,084 --> 00:19:40,564 Speaker 2: bad players, you can have objectively pretty large edges, yes there, right, 352 00:19:41,284 --> 00:19:44,524 Speaker 2: So you know, sometimes you know, it might be rational 353 00:19:44,604 --> 00:19:46,644 Speaker 2: in some sense to say, like, Okay, there's little few 354 00:19:46,724 --> 00:19:51,164 Speaker 2: risks here, but this game is so good. Right, But yeah, no, 355 00:19:51,284 --> 00:19:53,804 Speaker 2: I mean, like a lot of these things. You know, 356 00:19:54,684 --> 00:19:56,364 Speaker 2: I don't know if you're as much of an NBA 357 00:19:56,564 --> 00:19:58,884 Speaker 2: geek as I am, probably not, a lot of things 358 00:19:58,884 --> 00:20:01,084 Speaker 2: are things that like are already problems with the league anyway. 359 00:20:01,164 --> 00:20:04,084 Speaker 2: So the fact that like teams will try to lose 360 00:20:04,124 --> 00:20:05,964 Speaker 2: the old tank in order to get a better draft pick, 361 00:20:06,004 --> 00:20:08,404 Speaker 2: occasionally for other reasons, to manipulate their playoff spot to 362 00:20:08,404 --> 00:20:11,164 Speaker 2: get a more favorable match. Right, For what I understand, 363 00:20:11,244 --> 00:20:13,724 Speaker 2: the league has not been very diligent about like the 364 00:20:13,804 --> 00:20:17,364 Speaker 2: cause for why somebody isn't playing. Also, you know you 365 00:20:17,444 --> 00:20:20,644 Speaker 2: might strongly suspect I mean again, when I when I 366 00:20:20,644 --> 00:20:22,644 Speaker 2: were spending the NBA, you know, you usually had a 367 00:20:22,684 --> 00:20:24,924 Speaker 2: pretty good idea about like certain guys aren't going to 368 00:20:24,964 --> 00:20:28,044 Speaker 2: play in certain games if they're back to backs for 369 00:20:28,084 --> 00:20:29,804 Speaker 2: a bunch of games in a row. Teams tend to 370 00:20:29,844 --> 00:20:33,724 Speaker 2: like obfuscate that into last minute for like a competitive edge, right, 371 00:20:33,804 --> 00:20:37,324 Speaker 2: and the league has depends that you talk to not 372 00:20:37,524 --> 00:20:39,884 Speaker 2: enforced that as producedly as they could. No other sports 373 00:20:39,964 --> 00:20:42,244 Speaker 2: league like the NBA. Again maybe my favorite sports league 374 00:20:42,484 --> 00:20:47,244 Speaker 2: has this trouble with teams tanking games and trying to lose. 375 00:20:48,724 --> 00:20:51,484 Speaker 1: So as listeners of the show, now, I'm working on 376 00:20:51,484 --> 00:20:53,884 Speaker 1: a book about cheating and games, which is very germane. 377 00:20:53,924 --> 00:20:57,844 Speaker 1: Here the other sport where you see like so much 378 00:20:57,964 --> 00:21:00,524 Speaker 1: cheating taking place, but it's not. It's a very different 379 00:21:00,604 --> 00:21:03,844 Speaker 1: levels tennis, right, because that's somewhere once again where it's 380 00:21:03,884 --> 00:21:09,604 Speaker 1: individual and individuals like you can easily affect the the 381 00:21:09,644 --> 00:21:13,524 Speaker 1: outcome because it's not a team sport, right. From what 382 00:21:13,604 --> 00:21:17,204 Speaker 1: I can tell, basketball is the other one, just because 383 00:21:17,324 --> 00:21:20,564 Speaker 1: of the way that the sport works. And so I 384 00:21:20,564 --> 00:21:25,244 Speaker 1: think that a lot of organizations, including the NBA, nate, 385 00:21:25,244 --> 00:21:26,804 Speaker 1: if we put this back in kind of a game 386 00:21:26,884 --> 00:21:32,444 Speaker 1: theoretic lens, they often are not thinking kind of long term, right. 387 00:21:32,484 --> 00:21:35,124 Speaker 1: They're not thinking about incentives for like long term health. 388 00:21:35,164 --> 00:21:38,364 Speaker 1: They're thinking immediately like oh shit, I need to cover 389 00:21:38,444 --> 00:21:41,244 Speaker 1: my ass, right, Like it's better for me if I 390 00:21:41,244 --> 00:21:43,284 Speaker 1: don't look too closely, it's better for me, if I 391 00:21:43,324 --> 00:21:46,924 Speaker 1: clear this player, it's better. You know, people think everything's fine, 392 00:21:47,364 --> 00:21:50,244 Speaker 1: and yet over the long term, if you don't pay 393 00:21:50,284 --> 00:21:53,644 Speaker 1: attention to these sorts of things, that's when trust in 394 00:21:53,684 --> 00:21:57,644 Speaker 1: the integrity of the game is going to flounder. And 395 00:21:57,724 --> 00:22:00,804 Speaker 1: that's what actually matters. And so I think that you 396 00:22:00,844 --> 00:22:03,364 Speaker 1: know this is true. You know this is true in 397 00:22:03,404 --> 00:22:07,804 Speaker 1: poker and punishing cheaters, but people are very shortsighted and 398 00:22:07,964 --> 00:22:11,004 Speaker 1: they think, oh, immediately like I don't want the bad press. 399 00:22:11,124 --> 00:22:15,924 Speaker 1: And yet if you actually pay attention, if you actually punish, 400 00:22:16,004 --> 00:22:19,244 Speaker 1: if the punishments are harsh, that's how you disincentivize the 401 00:22:19,284 --> 00:22:23,324 Speaker 1: behavior and create a game that people believe in moving forward. 402 00:22:23,804 --> 00:22:26,644 Speaker 1: And so you know, I would love obviously, you know, 403 00:22:26,884 --> 00:22:30,724 Speaker 1: these indictments right now, allegations, we don't know what's going 404 00:22:30,804 --> 00:22:34,044 Speaker 1: to happen, but I would really love for there to be, 405 00:22:34,644 --> 00:22:38,604 Speaker 1: if there's the evidence, very harsh punishments, right, punishments that 406 00:22:38,644 --> 00:22:43,804 Speaker 1: would deter anyone from towing even close to the line 407 00:22:44,564 --> 00:22:49,524 Speaker 1: for whatever reason, because that's what you know, You're I'm 408 00:22:49,884 --> 00:22:53,004 Speaker 1: starting to get into basketball night because of you. I'm 409 00:22:53,044 --> 00:22:56,804 Speaker 1: only starting to see how fun this game is. And 410 00:22:57,284 --> 00:22:58,884 Speaker 1: I don't want to I don't want to get into 411 00:22:58,964 --> 00:23:01,884 Speaker 1: it just to be disappointed, because I think that players 412 00:23:01,884 --> 00:23:04,524 Speaker 1: are trying to you know, tank games or something like that, 413 00:23:04,764 --> 00:23:08,284 Speaker 1: and so I think that it's just so incredibly shortsighted 414 00:23:08,644 --> 00:23:11,404 Speaker 1: to be lean or to say, oh, you know, it's 415 00:23:11,684 --> 00:23:16,644 Speaker 1: okay and harsh is better. You want the fear of 416 00:23:17,684 --> 00:23:20,204 Speaker 1: repercussions to be real, and I think in the past 417 00:23:20,204 --> 00:23:21,124 Speaker 1: that hasn't been the case. 418 00:23:21,204 --> 00:23:22,844 Speaker 2: I think the NBA, I mean it's a little bit 419 00:23:23,484 --> 00:23:26,244 Speaker 2: a little bit trumpy in the sense that like, hey, look, 420 00:23:26,924 --> 00:23:28,724 Speaker 2: deny it and then when people are paying attention on 421 00:23:28,724 --> 00:23:30,724 Speaker 2: a Friday, put out some press release so it's been solved, 422 00:23:30,804 --> 00:23:32,844 Speaker 2: or suspend somebody again. Like you know, if you've ever 423 00:23:32,844 --> 00:23:35,244 Speaker 2: been like a PR situation or PR crisis of any kind, 424 00:23:35,364 --> 00:23:38,004 Speaker 2: Like people have short memories. The new cycle is busy. 425 00:23:38,324 --> 00:23:40,164 Speaker 2: There's lots of exciting things that are happening at any 426 00:23:40,164 --> 00:23:42,604 Speaker 2: given time in the NBA or in the world. Right, 427 00:23:43,524 --> 00:23:51,404 Speaker 2: but it kind of has like a cumulative effect. Right, 428 00:23:53,964 --> 00:23:54,364 Speaker 2: we'll be. 429 00:23:54,324 --> 00:23:55,124 Speaker 1: Back right after this. 430 00:24:05,924 --> 00:24:09,164 Speaker 2: You know you mentioned tennis. You know the reason why 431 00:24:09,204 --> 00:24:12,844 Speaker 2: best holds vulnerable Number one. These bookmakers are turning a 432 00:24:12,844 --> 00:24:15,964 Speaker 2: team sport into an individual sport. So it's not just 433 00:24:15,964 --> 00:24:18,644 Speaker 2: the fact that like, so, like you know, Jalen Brunson, 434 00:24:18,684 --> 00:24:20,884 Speaker 2: the Near Knicks Blinkard, one of my favorite players, is 435 00:24:20,924 --> 00:24:23,244 Speaker 2: spoken about how like people will be chripping at him 436 00:24:23,444 --> 00:24:25,964 Speaker 2: from the sidelines. But like, Jalen, you're supposed to score 437 00:24:26,444 --> 00:24:28,364 Speaker 2: twenty two points and you have twenty one. You know, 438 00:24:28,404 --> 00:24:30,124 Speaker 2: what the fuck's going on? Right, and that kind of thing, 439 00:24:30,164 --> 00:24:32,604 Speaker 2: you know, get like death threats and nasty messages and 440 00:24:32,644 --> 00:24:35,204 Speaker 2: so like, Yeah, one of the protections in a team 441 00:24:35,244 --> 00:24:38,844 Speaker 2: sport is that if one conspirator or a couple are cheating, 442 00:24:39,804 --> 00:24:41,404 Speaker 2: it certainly shifts the odds and that that you have 443 00:24:41,444 --> 00:24:44,964 Speaker 2: a very profitable bet. But like famously, sometimes these things 444 00:24:45,004 --> 00:24:47,844 Speaker 2: don't work. Right. There was a Boston College college cheating 445 00:24:47,884 --> 00:24:50,204 Speaker 2: scandal which did involve the Mafia in the nineteen seventies, 446 00:24:50,244 --> 00:24:52,484 Speaker 2: but like you know, only like one and a half 447 00:24:52,524 --> 00:24:54,724 Speaker 2: players were doing it, and they, like, I think the 448 00:24:54,764 --> 00:24:57,924 Speaker 2: Mafia didn't actually win the majority of its bets, right, 449 00:24:59,244 --> 00:25:01,564 Speaker 2: So the fact that you're kind of turning a team 450 00:25:01,604 --> 00:25:05,324 Speaker 2: sport into an individual sport with prop bets is problematic too. 451 00:25:05,364 --> 00:25:07,764 Speaker 2: But I want to go at like, why do you 452 00:25:07,804 --> 00:25:13,084 Speaker 2: think Terryer made one hundred and fifteen more than that 453 00:25:13,164 --> 00:25:15,364 Speaker 2: made over one hundred million dollars in his career. Right, yeah, 454 00:25:15,444 --> 00:25:18,764 Speaker 2: Chauncey Billups probably similar current head coach. I'm Terry gets 455 00:25:18,764 --> 00:25:20,364 Speaker 2: paid pretty well a lot, so we can do speaking 456 00:25:20,404 --> 00:25:23,484 Speaker 2: gigs and advertisements whatever else. Why do you think, Maria, 457 00:25:24,044 --> 00:25:27,844 Speaker 2: people like that are participating in these in these schemes? 458 00:25:28,284 --> 00:25:30,244 Speaker 2: So yeah, well you wouldn't think they were desperate. Frank come, 459 00:25:30,284 --> 00:25:31,804 Speaker 2: you never know when somebody has a gambling problem or 460 00:25:31,844 --> 00:25:34,124 Speaker 2: another type of problem. But why do you think they're 461 00:25:34,164 --> 00:25:34,564 Speaker 2: doing this? 462 00:25:35,484 --> 00:25:37,524 Speaker 1: I mean, I think I think it depends on the 463 00:25:37,604 --> 00:25:42,324 Speaker 1: exact situation, but I think oftentimes it's not for the money, right, 464 00:25:42,444 --> 00:25:45,244 Speaker 1: So for someone like Terry, maybe it's to feel important 465 00:25:45,284 --> 00:25:47,844 Speaker 1: and feel like he has influenced and like be a 466 00:25:48,204 --> 00:25:51,004 Speaker 1: cool dude for his friends, right, because a lot of 467 00:25:51,004 --> 00:25:53,484 Speaker 1: his stuff when I was reading the indictments, it was 468 00:25:53,484 --> 00:25:56,724 Speaker 1: giving tips to like childhood friends or you know, homeboys 469 00:25:57,164 --> 00:25:59,804 Speaker 1: and trying to try to help them out, which is 470 00:25:59,804 --> 00:26:02,004 Speaker 1: why it wasn't huge amounts of money, right, This is 471 00:26:02,004 --> 00:26:05,204 Speaker 1: why we're not We're not talking millions or it was 472 00:26:05,404 --> 00:26:08,604 Speaker 1: smaller bets. And I think that I think that that 473 00:26:08,724 --> 00:26:12,004 Speaker 1: kind of image creation, like I'm the chill dude who can, like, 474 00:26:12,604 --> 00:26:15,764 Speaker 1: you know, be cool. I think that that's actually a 475 00:26:15,884 --> 00:26:19,084 Speaker 1: huge incentive for people. And I don't know much about 476 00:26:19,084 --> 00:26:22,644 Speaker 1: his career or anything like that, but it seems and 477 00:26:22,804 --> 00:26:24,444 Speaker 1: please correct me if I'm wrong, that it's not like 478 00:26:24,524 --> 00:26:26,844 Speaker 1: he's a top tier player who is always you know, 479 00:26:27,124 --> 00:26:29,684 Speaker 1: who people are talking about and they're like, yeah, look 480 00:26:29,684 --> 00:26:32,324 Speaker 1: at him. Go. So it's a way of, you know, 481 00:26:32,444 --> 00:26:34,804 Speaker 1: kind of propping up your ego in those situations. Now, 482 00:26:34,844 --> 00:26:37,644 Speaker 1: a lot of people who were top tier players. And 483 00:26:37,684 --> 00:26:40,644 Speaker 1: by the way, this talk this is not just sports. 484 00:26:40,724 --> 00:26:43,124 Speaker 1: This is true of poker, This is true of a 485 00:26:43,124 --> 00:26:47,124 Speaker 1: lot of things. If they feel like either they're losing 486 00:26:47,164 --> 00:26:51,484 Speaker 1: their edge or like they're they're about to or they're 487 00:26:51,524 --> 00:26:54,564 Speaker 1: not quite sure, cheating is a way to make certain 488 00:26:54,764 --> 00:26:56,764 Speaker 1: that you at least make some money, right, to make 489 00:26:56,804 --> 00:27:01,004 Speaker 1: certain you win, to kind of solidify that like, oh, 490 00:27:01,164 --> 00:27:02,764 Speaker 1: you know, I will for sure. 491 00:27:02,804 --> 00:27:04,604 Speaker 2: Everybody else is doing it, right, you know, you feel 492 00:27:04,604 --> 00:27:05,924 Speaker 2: like everybody else is doing it, I have to do, 493 00:27:06,004 --> 00:27:06,724 Speaker 2: you know, the number one. 494 00:27:06,844 --> 00:27:11,004 Speaker 1: So that's yeah, absolutely, that's that's kind of the ants Armstrong, right, Like, 495 00:27:11,324 --> 00:27:13,684 Speaker 1: why why is someone like Land's armstrong. 496 00:27:14,084 --> 00:27:16,044 Speaker 2: Barry Bonds and baseball was one of the best players 497 00:27:16,044 --> 00:27:19,044 Speaker 2: in the league before steroids, and and like, well fuck 498 00:27:19,124 --> 00:27:23,724 Speaker 2: these yeah, fuck these guys like Mark maguire for. 499 00:27:23,844 --> 00:27:27,604 Speaker 1: Sure, Yeah, for sure. And then some people just get 500 00:27:27,644 --> 00:27:29,844 Speaker 1: off on it like should be perfectly honest, Like some 501 00:27:29,884 --> 00:27:33,044 Speaker 1: people like the idea that like I'm pulling one over 502 00:27:33,084 --> 00:27:36,164 Speaker 1: on people, like I'm in charge. Maybe someone like Terry 503 00:27:36,204 --> 00:27:40,124 Speaker 1: like feels slight or even Chauncey feels slighted by the league, 504 00:27:40,164 --> 00:27:43,204 Speaker 1: like they didn't appreciate me enough, like they didn't value 505 00:27:43,244 --> 00:27:45,484 Speaker 1: me enough, Like they didn't pay me quite enough for 506 00:27:45,644 --> 00:27:48,124 Speaker 1: whatever they did this bad thing to me. I don't 507 00:27:48,164 --> 00:27:50,364 Speaker 1: like what they do with X or why. So a 508 00:27:50,364 --> 00:27:52,724 Speaker 1: lot of times there's a lot of work on this. 509 00:27:53,164 --> 00:27:55,764 Speaker 1: When people can find an excuse in their head, you know, 510 00:27:55,844 --> 00:28:00,164 Speaker 1: why they're not adequately valued, why they're you know, why 511 00:28:00,164 --> 00:28:02,324 Speaker 1: they're being overlooked, something like that, then they want to 512 00:28:02,364 --> 00:28:05,644 Speaker 1: say fuck you to whoever is doing that, whether it's 513 00:28:05,724 --> 00:28:08,684 Speaker 1: the league, whether it's the company they work for. So 514 00:28:08,724 --> 00:28:12,164 Speaker 1: a lot of people justify you know, stealing everything from 515 00:28:12,204 --> 00:28:15,844 Speaker 1: like taking office supplies home to actually you know stealing. 516 00:28:16,644 --> 00:28:19,084 Speaker 1: Once you get that rationalization in your head, like some 517 00:28:19,124 --> 00:28:23,044 Speaker 1: people would just easily cross that line. And then so 518 00:28:23,084 --> 00:28:24,724 Speaker 1: it's like kind of sticking it to the man in 519 00:28:24,804 --> 00:28:27,724 Speaker 1: certain ways. And you also think, like you rationalize it 520 00:28:27,764 --> 00:28:30,164 Speaker 1: away to say that it is kind of a victimist crime, 521 00:28:30,244 --> 00:28:33,164 Speaker 1: like I'm helping out like myself and I'm helping out 522 00:28:33,524 --> 00:28:36,644 Speaker 1: you know, my boys or whatever it is, and like 523 00:28:37,004 --> 00:28:39,044 Speaker 1: they're a big corporation they can take it. Or in 524 00:28:39,084 --> 00:28:41,564 Speaker 1: the case of poker, like come on, like they get 525 00:28:41,604 --> 00:28:45,124 Speaker 1: the honor of playing with me, they get the celebrity 526 00:28:45,884 --> 00:28:48,444 Speaker 1: status by being in this game, and I'm giving them 527 00:28:48,484 --> 00:28:51,004 Speaker 1: something back, so I'll take their money. They're paying for 528 00:28:51,044 --> 00:28:54,524 Speaker 1: the experience. Right, You get all of these rationalizations in 529 00:28:54,564 --> 00:28:57,004 Speaker 1: your head that make you do it. And I think 530 00:28:57,044 --> 00:29:00,124 Speaker 1: that people when they say, oh, but like they're not stupid, 531 00:29:00,164 --> 00:29:02,444 Speaker 1: like they wouldn't risk it all for this, Actually yes 532 00:29:02,484 --> 00:29:05,764 Speaker 1: they would because they don't think they would be caught. Right, Like, 533 00:29:06,044 --> 00:29:08,244 Speaker 1: all of these things went on for over a year, 534 00:29:08,444 --> 00:29:12,124 Speaker 1: it sounds like multiple years. And if the more you 535 00:29:12,124 --> 00:29:13,924 Speaker 1: can get away with it, right, if you're not caught 536 00:29:13,924 --> 00:29:16,004 Speaker 1: the first time, if you're not caught the second time, 537 00:29:16,324 --> 00:29:19,244 Speaker 1: you start thinking that you're invincible, and you start getting 538 00:29:19,244 --> 00:29:22,804 Speaker 1: this thing like you know I won't be caught, Like 539 00:29:22,844 --> 00:29:25,684 Speaker 1: everything is fine and I can keep doing this, So 540 00:29:25,724 --> 00:29:28,164 Speaker 1: you actually think your risk is much lower than it is. 541 00:29:28,644 --> 00:29:31,444 Speaker 1: And even if I'm caught, there's going to be a 542 00:29:31,444 --> 00:29:33,684 Speaker 1: slap on the wrist. They'll say they investigated me and 543 00:29:33,724 --> 00:29:36,924 Speaker 1: it was fine. They didn't find anything suspicious, like my 544 00:29:37,004 --> 00:29:40,244 Speaker 1: leg really was injured or whatever it is. So the 545 00:29:40,324 --> 00:29:43,484 Speaker 1: repercussions are not really going to be serious enough, and 546 00:29:43,524 --> 00:29:45,964 Speaker 1: I'll continue doing what I'm doing. So I think all 547 00:29:46,044 --> 00:29:48,964 Speaker 1: of these things are just layered one on top of 548 00:29:48,964 --> 00:29:51,924 Speaker 1: the other and are play in both of these situations, 549 00:29:51,924 --> 00:29:53,244 Speaker 1: both of these indictments. 550 00:29:53,324 --> 00:29:58,444 Speaker 2: But yeah, look, one one way you can defend the 551 00:29:58,484 --> 00:30:02,404 Speaker 2: big draft Kings, Fanduels, Caesars and GM's of the world, right, 552 00:30:02,484 --> 00:30:05,284 Speaker 2: is by saying that like, they are much better equipped 553 00:30:05,964 --> 00:30:08,524 Speaker 2: to detect this and then either incentivized or required to 554 00:30:08,564 --> 00:30:11,364 Speaker 2: report it when they do in suspicious activity. Right. And 555 00:30:11,524 --> 00:30:14,124 Speaker 2: so first of all, you know they are not doing 556 00:30:14,364 --> 00:30:18,684 Speaker 2: bookmaking in the traditional robust way because you have these 557 00:30:18,724 --> 00:30:23,284 Speaker 2: sharp bookmakers, and you have bookmakers. I'll mention Draft Kings, 558 00:30:23,284 --> 00:30:25,084 Speaker 2: which is a book markets regarded as being at least 559 00:30:25,084 --> 00:30:26,964 Speaker 2: when I was spending the NBA a couple years ago. Now, 560 00:30:26,964 --> 00:30:27,524 Speaker 2: all that's sharp. 561 00:30:27,604 --> 00:30:27,684 Speaker 1: Right. 562 00:30:27,724 --> 00:30:30,884 Speaker 2: They're a retail sports book, and their business model is 563 00:30:31,484 --> 00:30:36,844 Speaker 2: customer discrimination and differentiation, where if you're a VIP at 564 00:30:36,884 --> 00:30:38,644 Speaker 2: a place like Draft Kings, you know, at a friend 565 00:30:38,684 --> 00:30:42,004 Speaker 2: who literally get cases of his favorite Cabernet mail to 566 00:30:42,044 --> 00:30:44,884 Speaker 2: his house, and like you know and like front row 567 00:30:44,924 --> 00:30:48,764 Speaker 2: seats for New York Rangers games and and things like that, right, 568 00:30:48,804 --> 00:30:50,964 Speaker 2: and you know, at some level of access you get 569 00:30:51,284 --> 00:30:55,284 Speaker 2: private jets to the Super Bowl or whatever, right, and 570 00:30:55,324 --> 00:31:00,364 Speaker 2: they can make infinity dollars basically, whereas I am limited 571 00:31:00,364 --> 00:31:02,244 Speaker 2: by most of the sports books. And I'm not I'm 572 00:31:02,284 --> 00:31:03,684 Speaker 2: not that good. I mean I've won a little bit 573 00:31:03,684 --> 00:31:05,964 Speaker 2: of money at sports betting, right, but like not a pro. 574 00:31:06,084 --> 00:31:09,884 Speaker 2: I'm just trying to trying to be good. Nobody should 575 00:31:09,884 --> 00:31:12,684 Speaker 2: be taking one hundred thousand dollars worth of action on 576 00:31:12,844 --> 00:31:16,884 Speaker 2: Terry Rogier under rebounds or whatever. Right. The only reason 577 00:31:16,924 --> 00:31:20,884 Speaker 2: someone would bet that is because they have inside knowledge, 578 00:31:20,924 --> 00:31:23,484 Speaker 2: or maybe maybe if they have a very particular model. Right, 579 00:31:23,484 --> 00:31:25,004 Speaker 2: But like you don't want to. You don't want some 580 00:31:25,044 --> 00:31:27,564 Speaker 2: super sharp mi I T kid with a model to 581 00:31:27,644 --> 00:31:31,044 Speaker 2: exploit this obscure part of your menu, right, And you 582 00:31:31,084 --> 00:31:35,044 Speaker 2: don't want people inside information betting, but they figure that, Okay, 583 00:31:35,084 --> 00:31:38,444 Speaker 2: well we know who our good and bad customers are, 584 00:31:38,444 --> 00:31:40,204 Speaker 2: and we don't want to fuck with our with our 585 00:31:40,324 --> 00:31:42,364 Speaker 2: vps as they're so called, right, they can do what 586 00:31:42,404 --> 00:31:43,844 Speaker 2: they want, and yeah, I mean now then they might 587 00:31:43,844 --> 00:31:46,644 Speaker 2: get a tip, but like so they're not. It's not 588 00:31:46,724 --> 00:31:48,964 Speaker 2: a robust form of bookmaking, right, It's a form of 589 00:31:48,964 --> 00:31:53,284 Speaker 2: book maanking that relies on on customer identification and like so, 590 00:31:53,484 --> 00:31:57,644 Speaker 2: like that's part of why I'm less sympathetic, and because 591 00:31:57,724 --> 00:32:02,044 Speaker 2: like when the gambling companies, you know, in general, when 592 00:32:02,084 --> 00:32:05,844 Speaker 2: you pass legislation, then you kind of pass the skeleton 593 00:32:05,844 --> 00:32:09,324 Speaker 2: of the legislation, and then the lobbyists and the indus, 594 00:32:09,404 --> 00:32:11,564 Speaker 2: if you interest do their work to interpret that legislation 595 00:32:11,644 --> 00:32:16,764 Speaker 2: in ways that like is shockingly favorable to those vested interests. Right. 596 00:32:16,844 --> 00:32:18,764 Speaker 2: You do have some states Massachusetts now and New York 597 00:32:18,804 --> 00:32:20,884 Speaker 2: has looked into like, okay, should really be able to 598 00:32:20,964 --> 00:32:23,764 Speaker 2: let some people, but literally ten dollars on a game 599 00:32:24,324 --> 00:32:27,404 Speaker 2: a million dollars in the same game, probably not right. 600 00:32:27,684 --> 00:32:30,204 Speaker 2: But like, if you're drafting regulations, like I think the 601 00:32:30,244 --> 00:32:32,484 Speaker 2: average sports better doesn't realize that if you are if 602 00:32:32,524 --> 00:32:34,684 Speaker 2: they think you're good, they will limit you. If they 603 00:32:34,724 --> 00:32:37,004 Speaker 2: think you're good, they will not take meaningful amounts of 604 00:32:37,044 --> 00:32:39,884 Speaker 2: money from you in terms of action. Right. By the way, 605 00:32:39,884 --> 00:32:42,644 Speaker 2: when you look at the ads for sports betting, if 606 00:32:42,684 --> 00:32:44,764 Speaker 2: you come back to the ads for daily fantasy sports, 607 00:32:45,364 --> 00:32:48,124 Speaker 2: they were marketed as a game of skill. Right, you are. 608 00:32:48,244 --> 00:32:50,964 Speaker 2: Daily fantasy sports is where you draft a team, and 609 00:32:51,004 --> 00:32:53,164 Speaker 2: you draft a team a real player that you compete 610 00:32:53,164 --> 00:32:55,844 Speaker 2: against other people, and the house takes a cut or 611 00:32:55,844 --> 00:32:57,684 Speaker 2: a rake like poker or something. Right, they have no 612 00:32:57,764 --> 00:33:00,484 Speaker 2: interest in particular and who wins that outcome, And they'd 613 00:33:00,484 --> 00:33:02,084 Speaker 2: say it's a game of skill. The ads would like 614 00:33:02,084 --> 00:33:05,724 Speaker 2: literally just say you are Joe Schmoe sitting in your office, 615 00:33:05,804 --> 00:33:08,684 Speaker 2: drone job. Right, go to DraftKings or FanDuel. Right, you 616 00:33:08,724 --> 00:33:11,124 Speaker 2: can win millions, have and sleep a Supermodels. It was 617 00:33:11,124 --> 00:33:13,084 Speaker 2: like it was like not that subtle because you're smart 618 00:33:13,164 --> 00:33:16,044 Speaker 2: and they're dumb. It was like very unsettled, appealing to 619 00:33:16,084 --> 00:33:19,124 Speaker 2: the male ego. And now they don't do that, right, 620 00:33:19,164 --> 00:33:20,364 Speaker 2: They don't want to advertize that as a game of 621 00:33:20,404 --> 00:33:22,524 Speaker 2: skill because if they think they're skilled, then they won't 622 00:33:22,564 --> 00:33:24,484 Speaker 2: let you bet very much. Right, And so like I 623 00:33:24,524 --> 00:33:27,004 Speaker 2: mean that's you know, that whole thing is is is 624 00:33:27,084 --> 00:33:29,324 Speaker 2: kind of bullshit. It's not a unique innovation, I guess 625 00:33:29,324 --> 00:33:31,684 Speaker 2: of like American sports betting lines, but like, you know, 626 00:33:32,084 --> 00:33:34,444 Speaker 2: British companies were notorious for doing this too, but like, 627 00:33:34,644 --> 00:33:36,844 Speaker 2: but still it's moved a long way from the traditional 628 00:33:37,564 --> 00:33:39,324 Speaker 2: form of bookmaking. And the other thing to people don't 629 00:33:39,324 --> 00:33:41,764 Speaker 2: realize is like sports betting was for many years in 630 00:33:41,844 --> 00:33:46,564 Speaker 2: Vegas what was called an amenity AMEI and it y right, 631 00:33:47,364 --> 00:33:48,964 Speaker 2: you're in the middle of the deserts, you have lots 632 00:33:48,964 --> 00:33:52,884 Speaker 2: of physical space. You know. Sometimes people want to be 633 00:33:52,924 --> 00:33:55,324 Speaker 2: in a casino and actually you know, so if you're 634 00:33:55,324 --> 00:33:58,604 Speaker 2: in a casino and you want to lose not that 635 00:33:58,724 --> 00:34:02,644 Speaker 2: much money, right, actually, one of the better things to 636 00:34:02,684 --> 00:34:07,644 Speaker 2: do might be to bet a thousand dollars on an 637 00:34:07,764 --> 00:34:11,484 Speaker 2: NFL game. If you're bet naively that you know that 638 00:34:11,484 --> 00:34:14,284 Speaker 2: that has a negative expected value of forty six bucks, 639 00:34:14,404 --> 00:34:19,524 Speaker 2: right typical point spread, hold margins right for forty six bucks, 640 00:34:19,524 --> 00:34:21,724 Speaker 2: you know, three and a half hours of entertainment watching 641 00:34:21,764 --> 00:34:24,244 Speaker 2: the game in the sportsbook and like getting three drinks 642 00:34:24,244 --> 00:34:26,164 Speaker 2: and sweating with your friends or whatever. Rate Like, it's 643 00:34:26,204 --> 00:34:28,124 Speaker 2: actually not that bad, but it was kind of seen 644 00:34:28,124 --> 00:34:30,804 Speaker 2: as an amenity, right, and there's kind of this fastikas 645 00:34:30,804 --> 00:34:32,884 Speaker 2: some guys can beat the lines, right and like, but 646 00:34:32,964 --> 00:34:34,764 Speaker 2: it's moved away from that model. And by the way, 647 00:34:34,804 --> 00:34:38,324 Speaker 2: but it was one percent of one percent of revenues 648 00:34:38,364 --> 00:34:41,044 Speaker 2: is from the sports book, right, it was almost a 649 00:34:41,124 --> 00:34:43,804 Speaker 2: lost leader. And the notion that like you can have 650 00:34:43,884 --> 00:34:47,564 Speaker 2: this market where like sports betting is huge and yet 651 00:34:47,604 --> 00:34:51,244 Speaker 2: you limit sharp betters is is I don't know, it's 652 00:34:51,324 --> 00:34:54,404 Speaker 2: kind of at best, at best unproven. 653 00:34:54,124 --> 00:34:56,844 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, No, I mean I think that one of 654 00:34:56,844 --> 00:35:00,084 Speaker 1: the things that these indictments have shown us is that, 655 00:35:00,524 --> 00:35:03,444 Speaker 1: you know, we need a more centralized, rigorous approach to 656 00:35:04,164 --> 00:35:06,324 Speaker 1: how do we, you know, how do we regulate this, right, 657 00:35:06,404 --> 00:35:09,564 Speaker 1: how do we what kinds of supports bets for which amount? 658 00:35:10,084 --> 00:35:14,524 Speaker 1: Like can we standardize something that actually upholds the integrity 659 00:35:14,524 --> 00:35:18,164 Speaker 1: of the games, that will avoid situations that you know, 660 00:35:18,284 --> 00:35:21,764 Speaker 1: turn team sports into individual sports, that kind of change 661 00:35:21,764 --> 00:35:25,844 Speaker 1: those incentive structures around It's it's a tough ask, right because, 662 00:35:25,884 --> 00:35:28,484 Speaker 1: as you say, Nate, like, there are you know, various 663 00:35:28,484 --> 00:35:32,444 Speaker 1: forces pulling you in various directions. But I think it's doable, 664 00:35:32,484 --> 00:35:35,444 Speaker 1: and I think that, you know, it's something that people 665 00:35:35,484 --> 00:35:37,524 Speaker 1: need to sit down and think about. But it's not 666 00:35:37,524 --> 00:35:39,844 Speaker 1: like an easy band aid fix like oh, you know 667 00:35:39,924 --> 00:35:41,964 Speaker 1: we need to just like limit all bets to X 668 00:35:42,204 --> 00:35:45,124 Speaker 1: or or do thing. Why. I think it does require 669 00:35:45,164 --> 00:35:49,164 Speaker 1: a nuanced understanding of sports betting, which frankly, I don't 670 00:35:49,164 --> 00:35:52,124 Speaker 1: think a lot of legislators have. Like no, I. 671 00:35:52,044 --> 00:35:54,164 Speaker 2: Wouldn't think so either, and you know, and frankly the 672 00:35:54,164 --> 00:35:56,204 Speaker 2: media doesn't either. I mean the media has default toward 673 00:35:56,204 --> 00:35:58,764 Speaker 2: like scoldiness about this, and like exactly if you don't 674 00:35:58,804 --> 00:36:01,164 Speaker 2: have those legal sites, a lot of it goes underground. 675 00:36:01,204 --> 00:36:03,404 Speaker 2: On one hundred percent, I mean that's absolutely thing, right. 676 00:36:03,644 --> 00:36:05,284 Speaker 2: You know, I'm actually betting in the NFL this year. 677 00:36:05,404 --> 00:36:07,684 Speaker 2: Believe me, Maria. I know how, and I have at 678 00:36:07,684 --> 00:36:11,124 Speaker 2: some points in the past like made bets set in 679 00:36:11,164 --> 00:36:13,004 Speaker 2: the grey market using crypto and things like that. I 680 00:36:13,004 --> 00:36:15,284 Speaker 2: know how to do that. It's just not worth the trouble, right, 681 00:36:15,364 --> 00:36:18,204 Speaker 2: you know, whereas if it's it's it's Draft Kings or FanDuel, right. 682 00:36:18,244 --> 00:36:20,284 Speaker 2: I mean literally, even like the uspit in the NBA, 683 00:36:20,324 --> 00:36:21,564 Speaker 2: I was like staying at the Wind. I guess it's 684 00:36:21,564 --> 00:36:23,884 Speaker 2: for the Wind December poker tournament, right, And there's like 685 00:36:24,404 --> 00:36:26,524 Speaker 2: here's an NBA bet. I'm want to bet eleven hundred 686 00:36:26,524 --> 00:36:30,044 Speaker 2: dollars and as an expected value of like one percent, 687 00:36:30,204 --> 00:36:32,684 Speaker 2: probably right, so the infected value is like twelve bucks, right? 688 00:36:33,164 --> 00:36:36,404 Speaker 2: Do I want to go down to the fucking sports 689 00:36:36,404 --> 00:36:39,604 Speaker 2: book window and like place this bet right and feel 690 00:36:39,604 --> 00:36:42,364 Speaker 2: like a d gen? No, it's only worth twelve dollars. 691 00:36:42,364 --> 00:36:45,564 Speaker 2: I'll stay in my room. And yeah, So there's like 692 00:36:45,644 --> 00:36:47,484 Speaker 2: shit like that where like even that friction of like 693 00:36:48,204 --> 00:36:50,764 Speaker 2: the ease of online betting. So, yeah, there are few categories, 694 00:36:50,804 --> 00:36:53,124 Speaker 2: you know. One one has to do with like you 695 00:36:53,124 --> 00:36:55,844 Speaker 2: have to limit the menu of bets, right, if you 696 00:36:55,884 --> 00:36:58,284 Speaker 2: want to bread on Lebron James or Nikola Yoki, just 697 00:36:58,284 --> 00:36:58,924 Speaker 2: gonna do fine. 698 00:36:58,964 --> 00:37:01,444 Speaker 1: Right, But like that, Yeah, that sounds like low hanging fruit. 699 00:37:01,684 --> 00:37:05,004 Speaker 1: I think that that's low hanging fruit. That that's something 700 00:37:05,004 --> 00:37:08,124 Speaker 1: that could immediately be done. Right, Yes, the menus should 701 00:37:08,164 --> 00:37:08,684 Speaker 1: be limited. 702 00:37:09,964 --> 00:37:13,444 Speaker 2: I think you need some constraints on this, limiting your 703 00:37:13,444 --> 00:37:17,444 Speaker 2: price discrimination. Right, I'd go radically, I guess I'm self interested. 704 00:37:17,524 --> 00:37:21,404 Speaker 2: I'd go radically and say everywhere gets the same price. Right, 705 00:37:21,644 --> 00:37:24,244 Speaker 2: you post sublimits, you know, if you want to say, okay, 706 00:37:24,324 --> 00:37:26,324 Speaker 2: we can have a spread of two x or four 707 00:37:26,484 --> 00:37:29,644 Speaker 2: X or five x or something. Okay, that's fine, right, 708 00:37:29,684 --> 00:37:33,884 Speaker 2: but like it lets you lets you put irresponsible lines 709 00:37:34,004 --> 00:37:38,444 Speaker 2: up that are subject to cheating or manipulation, right if 710 00:37:38,484 --> 00:37:40,804 Speaker 2: you only take bets from people who you think are 711 00:37:40,844 --> 00:37:42,684 Speaker 2: going to lose on them, right, It's like it's it's 712 00:37:42,724 --> 00:37:45,884 Speaker 2: like one of these carnival games where where let's ease 713 00:37:45,924 --> 00:37:47,644 Speaker 2: you to like, you know, throw the ball at the 714 00:37:47,644 --> 00:37:49,764 Speaker 2: bullseye and get the free stuffed animal. But like it's 715 00:37:49,764 --> 00:37:53,404 Speaker 2: actually pretty difficult, and number three is probably like, you know, 716 00:37:53,884 --> 00:37:58,324 Speaker 2: creating more friction. If you had a twenty four hour 717 00:37:58,644 --> 00:38:02,124 Speaker 2: winning carry between you deposits and money and when you bet, right, 718 00:38:02,244 --> 00:38:05,324 Speaker 2: that would create meaningful friction if you required you say, okay, 719 00:38:05,404 --> 00:38:07,964 Speaker 2: you know in the UK, don't its is still true? 720 00:38:07,964 --> 00:38:09,404 Speaker 2: I guess it must still be true, right you don't. 721 00:38:09,524 --> 00:38:12,844 Speaker 2: It's like a Ladbrokes shop, right, you're chippy and then 722 00:38:12,884 --> 00:38:15,964 Speaker 2: you get your go to the betting window and whatever, 723 00:38:16,084 --> 00:38:18,684 Speaker 2: right you know saying okay, you know you want to bet, 724 00:38:18,684 --> 00:38:21,284 Speaker 2: you just have to go to a physical location and 725 00:38:21,324 --> 00:38:24,724 Speaker 2: then add some additional protection. You can know your customer laws. 726 00:38:24,764 --> 00:38:27,164 Speaker 2: You know, if somebody seems like they're got crative line 727 00:38:27,204 --> 00:38:29,564 Speaker 2: or abusive, right, you can deny their action that kind 728 00:38:29,604 --> 00:38:32,124 Speaker 2: of thing, right, and so like you know, so yeah 729 00:38:32,164 --> 00:38:33,324 Speaker 2: you want I bet okay, And there's gonna be a 730 00:38:33,324 --> 00:38:36,164 Speaker 2: little DraftKings office and then throughout New York and maybe 731 00:38:36,164 --> 00:38:37,564 Speaker 2: it's a nice little barther if you want to watch 732 00:38:37,564 --> 00:38:38,964 Speaker 2: your games, right, but you have to physically mean a 733 00:38:38,964 --> 00:38:40,684 Speaker 2: location to bet. You know, I wouldn't go that far. 734 00:38:40,684 --> 00:38:43,524 Speaker 2: I wouldn't advocate for all of this, but like, but 735 00:38:45,164 --> 00:38:47,844 Speaker 2: you know, public opinions turning against this, right, people are 736 00:38:48,284 --> 00:38:50,244 Speaker 2: for both getting that reasons. People are prudish, but like 737 00:38:51,924 --> 00:38:53,924 Speaker 2: the industry I think has been short sighted. It was 738 00:38:53,964 --> 00:38:56,284 Speaker 2: that it was a power grab and or a money grab, right, 739 00:38:56,684 --> 00:38:58,204 Speaker 2: and now they're paying the price for that. 740 00:38:58,844 --> 00:39:02,124 Speaker 1: Yeah. So I think that are three major recommendations, because 741 00:39:02,164 --> 00:39:06,084 Speaker 1: I do agree with the framework. Is one limiting menu 742 00:39:06,244 --> 00:39:09,764 Speaker 1: of bets, so basically actually taking a look at what 743 00:39:09,844 --> 00:39:11,684 Speaker 1: makes sense, what doesn't make sense, what's kind of in 744 00:39:11,724 --> 00:39:16,644 Speaker 1: the spirit of the game versus not to transparency and standardization. 745 00:39:17,764 --> 00:39:22,244 Speaker 1: And three adding some friction in for for the ability 746 00:39:22,284 --> 00:39:25,924 Speaker 1: to place bets so that people aren't kind of in 747 00:39:25,924 --> 00:39:28,804 Speaker 1: the spiral where like you know, they they get into 748 00:39:29,564 --> 00:39:32,044 Speaker 1: they get into situations that they can't then get out of. 749 00:39:32,084 --> 00:39:34,404 Speaker 1: I think that these those are kind of three buckets 750 00:39:34,484 --> 00:39:37,964 Speaker 1: that are probably really good places to start so that 751 00:39:38,604 --> 00:39:43,524 Speaker 1: sports betting can regain its good reputation, because kind I 752 00:39:43,804 --> 00:39:46,924 Speaker 1: had a good reputation right, but can can get can 753 00:39:46,964 --> 00:39:50,244 Speaker 1: get public sentiment more on its side. I think that 754 00:39:50,244 --> 00:39:52,124 Speaker 1: that that would be helpful. And I think that if 755 00:39:52,244 --> 00:39:56,244 Speaker 1: those types of improvements come out of this scandal, that 756 00:39:56,364 --> 00:39:58,884 Speaker 1: will be something. On that note night, I wish you 757 00:39:58,924 --> 00:40:01,564 Speaker 1: the best of luck getting out of Mexico. 758 00:40:01,724 --> 00:40:03,964 Speaker 2: I actually can't draft Kings on their runway. If I 759 00:40:03,964 --> 00:40:07,044 Speaker 2: would have fucking gotten like plus behine, your flight will 760 00:40:07,084 --> 00:40:08,564 Speaker 2: not take off tonight right now. 761 00:40:09,724 --> 00:40:12,684 Speaker 1: That'd be great. That'd be great you had some inside information. 762 00:40:12,884 --> 00:40:15,044 Speaker 2: Saying it real. I'll tell you that much. 763 00:40:15,084 --> 00:40:19,084 Speaker 1: For Ria Well, I hope that you this is your 764 00:40:19,164 --> 00:40:21,764 Speaker 1: last night at El Kaminoreal, or that last night was 765 00:40:21,764 --> 00:40:24,564 Speaker 1: your last night, and that tonight you will safely be 766 00:40:24,844 --> 00:40:34,164 Speaker 1: in your New York City apartment. Let us know what 767 00:40:34,204 --> 00:40:36,164 Speaker 1: you think of the show. Reach out to us at 768 00:40:36,244 --> 00:40:40,524 Speaker 1: Risky Business at pushkin dot fm. Risky Business is hosted 769 00:40:40,524 --> 00:40:42,804 Speaker 1: by me Maria Kanakova. 770 00:40:42,124 --> 00:40:44,884 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool 771 00:40:44,924 --> 00:40:48,884 Speaker 2: production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 772 00:40:48,884 --> 00:40:53,244 Speaker 2: by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia, 773 00:40:53,324 --> 00:40:56,204 Speaker 2: Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our 774 00:40:56,244 --> 00:41:00,084 Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 775 00:41:00,644 --> 00:41:02,884 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us 776 00:41:02,884 --> 00:41:05,564 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too, But once again, 777 00:41:05,684 --> 00:41:07,484 Speaker 1: only if you like us. We don't want those bad 778 00:41:07,524 --> 00:41:09,764 Speaker 1: reviews out there. Thanks for too again