1 00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to Dick It appen here, a podcast where if 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:09,319 Speaker 1: you're listening to this episode it's the middle of the week, 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: you probably know you know what this podcast is, you 4 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: know what it's about. I'm your host, Mia Wong. Now, 5 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:19,280 Speaker 1: if you've been reading the news about China at all 6 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: in the past few years, you've probably at least heard 7 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 1: of China's Belton Road initiative, probably followed by a stream 8 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 1: of almost panicked fear mongering about China displacing America's role 9 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: in the world and luring countries, and the debt traps 10 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: that allow the CCP to seize control of the country's 11 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: assets and then its entire foreign policy. And all of 12 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 1: this begs the question what actually is Belton Road. This 13 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: is not a simple question because Belton Road isn't really 14 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: a coherent, single project at all. It is effectively a 15 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: marketing term slapped onto an enormous array of loans, investments, 16 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: some things that are effectively grants, infrastructure projects and special 17 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:07,559 Speaker 1: economic zones across the world. The money for these projects 18 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,319 Speaker 1: comes from a variety of Chinese banks and sometimes just 19 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 1: like government agencies like the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and 20 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: involve a vast array of different Chinese companies and contractors. 21 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: So what are these banks and companies and governments actually 22 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 1: up to. I'm going to run through three examples to 23 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 1: get a sense of the kind of program that composes 24 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 1: Belton Road. One very common program is extending lines of 25 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: credit to state oil companies of oil producers in order 26 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: to secure china supply of oil. I'm starting here because 27 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 1: this is not typically what people think of when someone 28 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 1: brings up Belton Road, and it gets at a couple 29 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: of the central complexities of Belton Road. One is, you know, 30 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 1: a lot of this stuff is just, in some sense 31 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 1: almost been all attempts to just sort of secured natural 32 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:12,839 Speaker 1: resources by paying money for them and investing money in them, 33 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: which is, you know, very very standard sort of capitalist behavior. 34 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 1: But another complexity of this aspect of Belton Road is 35 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: that these loans to oil producers were happening well before 36 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: Belton Road ever existed. The credit lines were simply absorbed 37 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: into Belton Road when the project was announced in twenty thirteen, 38 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:35,920 Speaker 1: and now these loans are considered Belton Road projects. This 39 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: is a very common thread in Belton Road. Most of 40 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: the vaunted one trillion dollars of investment in Belton Road 41 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 1: projects comes from, you know, the extension of pre existing projects, 42 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: which really sort of puts into perspective all of those 43 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: like very very scary like maps that you'll see where 44 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: they're like one hundred blah blah blah countries have accepted 45 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: Belton Road projects. It's like, well, yeah, okay, Like how 46 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: much of that knew and how much of that is 47 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: people who had like some random agreement with China beforehand. Now, 48 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 1: lest you think the fact that China is giving like, 49 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 1: you know, a bunch of money to like Brazil State 50 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: Oil Company means that, like this the whole Belton Road 51 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 1: thing has something to do with socialism. Here's a quote 52 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: from China's thirteenth five Year Plan quote. We will speed 53 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: up efforts to implement the free Trade Area strategy, gradually 54 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: establishing a network of high standard free trade areas. We 55 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: will actively engage in negotiations with other countries and regions 56 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 1: along the route of Belton of the along the routes 57 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: of the Belton Road initiative on the building of free 58 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: trade areas. Now, this is the ancient neoliberal dream. It 59 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: is it is a dream of a world where corporations 60 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: can freely move their commodities across borders while maintaining you know, 61 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 1: zones of just unlimited exploitation of where and special economic zones. Now, 62 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: speaking of sort of the condition of workers, let us 63 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 1: move to a more typical belt and road project, Jamaica's 64 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: North South Highway. In twenty fourteen, at the astounding cost 65 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 1: of seven hundred million dollars, the Jamaican government opened the 66 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: North South Highway. Here's from an article that was republished 67 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: in laoson quote. Since Jamaica needed a Chinese loan to 68 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: finance the highway, Chinese Harbor Engineering Company was granted the 69 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: right to own and operate the highway for fifty years 70 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: as part of the arrangement. Also, the tolls collected on 71 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 1: the highway cannot be used for debt servicing and rather 72 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 1: go to the China Harbor Engineering Company directly as profit. Additionally, 73 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,839 Speaker 1: the tolls are astronomical by local standards. To drive the 74 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 1: length of the highway and a standard car costs the 75 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: equivalents of over twelve dollars each way. This is well 76 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 1: out of reach for the vast majority of Jamaican's where 77 00:05:05,760 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: the average monthly salary is about six hundred dollars, and 78 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 1: only sixty percent of workers have a wage or salaried 79 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: position at all. Many of my respondents wondered for who 80 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: was this highway. The answer may lie in the additional 81 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: concessions granted to the China Harbor Engineering Company, primarily twelve 82 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: hundred acres of land across the highway, to be held 83 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 1: in perpetuity. Apparently this will be used to construct hotels 84 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: and adjoining infrastructure by Chinese companies for Chinese tourists, a 85 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: kind of economic enclave from which locals would not benefit directly, 86 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 1: as acknowledged by the then Jamaican Minister of Transport. Now, 87 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 1: this sucks for Jamaican workers, who you know didn't get 88 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 1: any of the money from the contract, which you know 89 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: went through Chinese firms that inputed Chinese workers. And it's 90 00:05:55,800 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 1: also not a great deal for like the Jamaican government, 91 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 1: which is enormous about of debt and gets seemingly very 92 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 1: little for this. And this begs the question why do 93 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: countries agree to this? 94 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 2: Now? 95 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: The short answer is that they need money for development projects, 96 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,160 Speaker 1: and you know, for a poor country that money is 97 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: very hard to come by. Part of the popularity of 98 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 1: the project is that economies who've been through the you know, 99 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 1: the just devastating process of IMF structure reforms, who've had 100 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: literally their entire economy and social system tourn apart, who 101 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 1: have literally watched food being taken from the mouths of 102 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: their children in order to pay off IMF loans, are 103 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:54,159 Speaker 1: looking for literally any alternative. And as we've discussed on 104 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 1: this show before, Jamaica itself was the first country, you know, 105 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 1: to be looted by the IMF as a social democratic 106 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: government was forced to shred as welfare state in its 107 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 1: economy in the seventies as a condition for getting IMF loans. 108 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: This history and the current day threat more of these 109 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: structural adjustments should you attempt to go to the IMF 110 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: for more loans. Make it more likely that countries will 111 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: turn to Belton Road rather than the IMF to deal 112 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: with their complete lack of development and to stave off 113 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: economic crises resulting from the fact that their government has 114 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: completely run out of money. And this is something even 115 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: liberal imperialist institutions will admit. Here's from the Council on 116 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 1: Foreign Relations Belton Road Task Force report quote. In contrast 117 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 1: to loans from traditional providers of development, finance. China's loans 118 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: are generally not concessional, and the Chinese Development Bank and 119 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: the Export Import Bank of China expect to make a 120 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 1: return on their investments. The loans also lack policy conditionality. 121 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 1: They contain few or no exceptions of host country economic 122 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 1: policy of political reforms. Now, the Council on Foreign Relations 123 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: concludes this with a very slick line that goes quote 124 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: for many Belton Road initiative countries, especially authoritarian regimes, this 125 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: is an attractive package, especially compared with other lenders who 126 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 1: insist on reforms tied to loans. 127 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 3: Now, okay, when do you hear the words, you know, 128 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 3: when do you hear that authoritarian regimes don't want to 129 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 3: do the quote reforms tied to loans? 130 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: That makes it sounds like the quote unquote reforms are like, 131 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: you know, you dictators seed power to a democracy woke 132 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: at IMF funding. That is not That is not how 133 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: i am F loan conditions work. What those reforms actually 134 00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: entail is much closer to sell every state ode asset 135 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 1: in the country to a bunch of American investors. We 136 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 1: will leave your children to die, now, you know. And 137 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: then this leads into some other stuff that the Council 138 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 1: on Foreign Relations talks about a lot, which is, you know, 139 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 1: they have entire giant sections about corruption on Belton Road 140 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 1: programs to which you know, the immediate response is like, man, 141 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: do you know how much money the IMF gave Pinochet? 142 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 1: They gave him over a billion dollars in nineteen eighties, 143 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: money that he is like three billion dollars in today's money. Now, clariously, 144 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: the other people who gave Pinochet a boatload of money 145 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 1: was the Chinese Communist Party, although you know, orders of 146 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 1: magnitude last, because this is this is this is like 147 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 1: the seventies Chinese Communist Party, who do not have much money, 148 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: but they had enough money apparently to give a bunch 149 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 1: of the Pinochet. And it's at this point that I 150 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 1: want to remind everyone that China is the third largest 151 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: voting member of the IMF, which is a real issue 152 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 1: for both the sort of liberal and pro CCP accounts 153 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: of the conflict between the CCP and the IMF over 154 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: providing loans, because you know, contrary to the way both 155 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: of these groups seem to think about sort of the 156 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 1: modern capitalist economy, China is not a you know, an 157 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: old communist radical like throwing stones at the liberal order 158 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 1: from outside the house. They are parts of the global 159 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: financial institutions. And to the extent that like you know, 160 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,319 Speaker 1: China can be fighting an institution that it is also 161 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 1: a part of right to the sense of the extent 162 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: that even makes sense to talk about. What you're really 163 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: talking about is just intercapitalist competition over who gets to 164 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: give people loans. Now, there's other interesting stuff in this report, 165 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: like an admission that the Chinese, you know, the sort 166 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: of Chinese debt trapped narrative is overblown. And this is true. 167 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,439 Speaker 1: The sort of like case study in about like a 168 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: Chinese company taking a port in Sri Lanka is not 169 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: It's not exactly like the story that everyone thinks it is. 170 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: And you know, like the Chinese company like got the 171 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 1: port after like a bidding process and stuff. So you know, 172 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 1: and this is true. And the fact that it's been 173 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 1: used sort of like hyped up to do fear mongering 174 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: is absolutely true. However, the thing the Council on Foreign 175 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 1: Relations can't actually sort of say is that the actual 176 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: conclusion that you get if you look closely at sort 177 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 1: of combination of you know, country like Sri Lanka that 178 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 1: has both IMF loans and like loans from China, is 179 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 1: that all of the lenders in the global capitalist economy 180 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 1: absolutely suck, and they all exploit the working class and 181 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 1: the debtor countries like in their own ways. Do you 182 00:11:56,880 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 1: know who else exploits the working class of debtor countries? 183 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: It is the products and services that support this podcast 184 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: and we're back now. What is notable about Belton Road 185 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: is that Belton Roads infrastructure projects usually do actually get built. 186 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:31,680 Speaker 1: But for all of the sort of screaming about like 187 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 1: China's geopolitical expansion, its attempt to subvert the democrats, subvert 188 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: the democratic order, the actual reason why these projects, unlike 189 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 1: you know, so many other large scale development projects, actually 190 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: happen and you know, actually do get built, is much 191 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: more banal. It is a product of internal Chinese economics. 192 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 1: So to explain this, I'm going to turn to another 193 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: example of a type of Belton Road project, giving countries 194 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: loans to buy telecommunications and internet equipment from Chinese companies. 195 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 1: Here's from fizz dot org. China's demand for infrastructure, including 196 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: communications and inationet gear is not as high as it 197 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 1: used to be, said Chinese Development Big President Jang Gigi 198 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: so what can we do with the excess production capacity. 199 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 1: We can only send it abroad. We may give you 200 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 1: loans to buy Chinese equipment and materials, but there must 201 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: be a Chinese element, Jang told AFP of his bank's 202 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 1: loans to help Chinese firms abroad. Now, this is an 203 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: interesting quote for a number of reasons. Recent sort of 204 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 1: American and also Canadian, the Canadians went wild over this 205 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:44,199 Speaker 1: concern around Chinese telecom companies. Have you know, argued that 206 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 1: the spread of Chinese economy communication technology is like a 207 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: geopolitical power grab by the CCP, a Chinese development bank. However, 208 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 1: kind of like lets the actual game slip, which is 209 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: that the reason for these loans, and you know, a 210 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:01,680 Speaker 1: major impetus for the sort of broaderon wrote initiative is 211 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: finding a solution to Chinese production over capacity, which is 212 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: the giant structural problem which sort of hangs like the 213 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: doom of damacles over the Chinese economy. And this is 214 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: incredibly important. Foreign policy analysts have a tendency which is 215 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 1: replicated in the media to think about Belton Road is 216 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 1: fundamentally a geopolitical tool. Take for example, this line from 217 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: Foreign Policy quote, will the developing world fall through China sway. 218 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: Many policy makers in Washington, DC certainly fear so, which 219 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: is one of the reasons they have created the new 220 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: International Development Finance Corporation, which is slated to begin operating 221 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: at the end of this year. Like the Marshall Plan, 222 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 1: which in post World War two years used generous economic 223 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: aid to fight the appeal of Soviet Communism in Western Europe, 224 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: the International Development Finance Corporation aims to help Washington push 225 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: back against beijing sweeping Elton Road initiative. Now, fascinatingly, the 226 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: authors don't seem to understand what the Marshall Plan actually was. Now, 227 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: the Marshall Plan, you know, despite what you will like 228 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: probably read in sort of like mainstream like diplomatic histories, 229 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: was not like originally was not really driven by anti 230 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: communism at all. It was in large part a product 231 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 1: of massive industrial overcapacity in post war In the post 232 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: war US, particularly in the automotive sector, demand from the 233 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: domestic American market couldn't support the enormously expanded auto industries 234 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: industrial capacity, and so the auto industry went to Congress 235 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 1: and tried to get them to rebuild Europe as like, 236 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 1: you know, another market that they could sell there, you know, 237 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: that they could sell cars to that could absorb the 238 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: product or of throbic capacity. The only way they could 239 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: actually get this to work was a tie it to 240 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: a raft of anti communism. And this is now how 241 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 1: the project is remembered, this, you know, as this sort 242 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: of like grand anti communists like political strategy, you know. 243 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: And in this sense, Belton Road can be understood as 244 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: China's Marshall Plan. There's a bold attempt to forge an 245 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 1: international solution to its domestic economic problems. And this means 246 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 1: to actually understand what Belton Road is, we need to 247 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 1: go back to the beginning, in response to the financial 248 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: collapse of two thousand and eight, trying to carry it 249 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: out what was until COVID the largest stimulus in human history, 250 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 1: an incomprehensibly large Kinesian program focused on internal infrastructure development 251 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: designed to shock the Chinese economy back into shape, and 252 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: it worked for about one year. In twenty ten, the 253 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: Chinese economy hit ten percent a year on your GDP growth, 254 00:16:50,560 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 1: and it has been falling ever since. In twenty eleven, 255 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: the round of global uprisings kicked off by the Arab Spring, 256 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,399 Speaker 1: hit China in the form of the Wukan riots and 257 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 1: a wave of strikes, and by twenty thirteen, a year 258 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 1: into the first term of new Chinese President Chijimping, the 259 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 1: economy was doing terribly and the government was still not 260 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:23,880 Speaker 1: out of the woods politically either. In response, the government 261 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 1: announced two programs within about four months of each other, 262 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:31,439 Speaker 1: Belton Road and the so called Mini Stimulus. Another Chinese 263 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 1: stimulus package aimed at improving Chinese rails at the proper 264 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 1: term point, and it ended improving the Chinese train network. Now, 265 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: these two programs were effectively the same response to the 266 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 1: economic crisis fased by the CCP. Rising wages of strike 267 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 1: activity and later environmental protests were threatening the profitability of 268 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: the Chinese manufacturing sector in its traditional coastal urban sector 269 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: is like Shenzhen. The solution then was to move Chinese 270 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: capital towards the interior of the country, into more rural 271 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: areas with lower wages, and then build an infrastructure network 272 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 1: to export Chinese commodities abroad. This move serves several purposes 273 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: at the same time. On the one hand, cheaper rural 274 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: workers are less likely to organize either strikes or environmental protests. 275 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 1: On the other hand, some kind of rural investment could 276 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: secure rural factional support for the party at a time 277 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 1: when the rural rucon riots meant that such support was 278 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 1: anything but assured. But even in twenty thirteen, it was 279 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 1: clear that the vaunted Chinese transition to a consumer economy 280 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 1: was going to fail because and this is really blindingly 281 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 1: obvious if you think, if you think about how the 282 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 1: Chinese economy works for like ten seconds, okay, in order 283 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: to have a consumer economy, you must have a class 284 00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: of consumers. Now, this requires average peace people to have 285 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 1: a thing called money. And both Xi Jinping and the 286 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:09,399 Speaker 1: Chinese capitalist class were broadly just absolutely resolutely refuse to 287 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 1: do anything that like involves paying Chinese workers more, which 288 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 1: is what you need to make this happen, and they 289 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 1: just refuse to do it. 290 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,440 Speaker 2: It is genuinely stunning. Xi Jinping Xijiping would literally rather 291 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 2: force like the force the randomly the head like the 292 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 2: CEOs of corporations to give money to charity and call 293 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 2: it a government program, before he would like fucking raise 294 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:40,239 Speaker 2: a minimum wage. So you know, if you're in twenty thirteen, right, 295 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:42,880 Speaker 2: you can see the writing on the wall. You can 296 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 2: see the Chinese economy isn't going to like turn into 297 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 2: a consumer economy. There's been you know, there's been some 298 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 2: transition into like a service based economy, but like you know, 299 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 2: ask ask the US how growth that a service based 300 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 2: economy works for you. And because they've seen the writing 301 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:01,919 Speaker 2: on the wall, Chinese capitalists start looking for ways to 302 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:06,880 Speaker 2: make money overseas. And this overlaps with a growing demand 303 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 2: to do something with the enormous reserves of American dollars 304 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 2: that China has from like basically propping up the US 305 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 2: economy by buying like a trillion dollars of US bonds 306 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 2: in the two thousands and early twenty tens. And like 307 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,959 Speaker 2: you think I'm joking when I say, like e trillion dollars, 308 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 2: but it is actually around a trillion dollars. Well, okay, 309 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 2: this is where I need to make an enormous disclaimer. 310 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: Oh boy, Okay. It is atrociously difficult to get reliable 311 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 1: economic statistics out of China, to the point where like 312 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: the Chinese central government, when they get data from their 313 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 1: own provinces, who are legally required to report data to them, 314 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 1: they have to mess with the data to make it 315 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 1: make literally any sense at all. They have these they 316 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 1: have these equations that they were that they like apply 317 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 1: to the statistical data from the provinces they get that 318 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 1: are effectively attempts to calculate how much the provinces are 319 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 1: lying to the central government and how you know, and 320 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 1: try to figure out a way to fix it. And 321 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: you know, they are doing things. They are doing things 322 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: like they're doing things out of like the old late 323 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 1: Soviet Union. They are they are they are using satellite 324 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 1: pictures to check how much light there is from factories 325 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,719 Speaker 1: at nights. They are like measuring how many freight trains 326 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 1: are like going into a province and trying to use 327 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: that to estimate their actual industrial capacity. It is wild. 328 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 1: And that is just the CCP trying to figure out 329 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 1: its own numbers. And that means, right that the numbers 330 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 1: the CCP actually decides to release when they're done trying 331 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: to get the data to look kind of real so 332 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,199 Speaker 1: they can understand what's going on their own economy. 333 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 3: You know. 334 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,199 Speaker 1: So there's that data which is unreliable because again, like 335 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 1: you're dealing with, everyone is lying to you, but what 336 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 1: the data is. But in the data the CCP actually releases, 337 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 1: Uh oh boy, so we're gonna come back to this 338 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,360 Speaker 1: in a little bit. But Chinese youth unemployment right now 339 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: is twenty percent, and the CCP's response to this is 340 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: they've announced that they refuse to release any more youth 341 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:27,879 Speaker 1: unemployment numbers until they finish like recalculating it or something. 342 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 1: So great stuff, amazing stuff happening in the world. The 343 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: Chinese statistical addicxes it is awful. I don't wish this 344 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 1: on anyone. Yeah, Now, all of this is to say 345 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:45,399 Speaker 1: that the case I'm about to make is probably true, 346 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: Like there's like a ninety percent chance that what I'm 347 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: about to say is true, but we don't one hundred 348 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: percent no, because it relies on Chinese economic data that 349 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 1: is incredibly sketchy, and a lot of this has turned 350 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 1: into this sort of like game of financial hide and 351 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,360 Speaker 1: seek with all these assets that are in weird places. 352 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: But what seems to have happened is that a lot 353 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: of built in road projects are being funded by Chinese 354 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,120 Speaker 1: Foreign just Change Reserve, which is those trillions of dollars 355 00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,439 Speaker 1: of like bonds I was talking about earlier, of that 356 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 1: you know, were moved from the People's Bank of China, 357 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,639 Speaker 1: which is China Central Bank, to like other banks and 358 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: then those banks use that to do investments, and this 359 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: appears to be some of the money that was used 360 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:26,640 Speaker 1: to fund belts and road projects. And this is where 361 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 1: things get very sketchy. Now, these banks seem to initially 362 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,119 Speaker 1: have been flushed with capital which you know, contributed to 363 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,919 Speaker 1: a massive like as as the product is initially starting 364 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 1: and up through about twenty eighteen, like it's just you know, 365 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 1: it just keeps the amount of money going into this 366 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,679 Speaker 1: keeps increasing, keeps increasing, and then twenty eighteen it starts 367 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 1: to slow. And then after the pandemic, and particularly after 368 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 1: like twenty twenty twenty two, like the amount of money 369 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 1: that's going into built road projects has imploded, and the 370 00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: amounts of loans that the CCP is writing off has 371 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: just diminished enormously. Now, Okay, this is the sketchy part. 372 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 1: You will see a lot of people if you look 373 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 1: into this, who are going to argue that the reason 374 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 1: that these loans have sort of dried up and the 375 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 1: reason that this has been decreasing is that China is 376 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:25,919 Speaker 1: like burning through its reserve of foreign exchange, like it's 377 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,199 Speaker 1: burning out of its burning through its reserve of like 378 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:32,160 Speaker 1: US dollars that it has its banks. This may be true, 379 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: maybe it's probably not true of like twenty eighteen, because 380 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 1: and this is the thing that's been discovered very recently. 381 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 1: A lot of Chinese like a lot of things that 382 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 1: like are technically foreign exchange reserves were like technically aren't 383 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 1: qualified classified as foreign exchange reserves because they've been weird 384 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 1: stuff has happened to the balance sheet. I don't know, 385 00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:58,760 Speaker 1: it's kind of a mess, but like it seems like 386 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 1: China has way way larger They have these things called 387 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 1: shadow reserves that are the things that they've been using 388 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 1: to like turn for x into like investments, and this 389 00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 1: seems this seems to indicate that China has like way 390 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 1: way larger foreign exchange reserves than it technically are on 391 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 1: the balance sheet. So what the actual relationship between how 392 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:26,160 Speaker 1: much foreign exchange reserves China has and how much money 393 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,120 Speaker 1: is putting into Belton run. We don't know. It's a disaster, 394 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:33,679 Speaker 1: but what we do know is that these investments were 395 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:38,320 Speaker 1: not like sort of like mere geopolitical tools, right, These 396 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 1: investments were actually designed to make money, and that means 397 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: that they were and still are an attempt to solve 398 00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 1: sort of the weakness of the Chinese economy by finding 399 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,360 Speaker 1: ways to invest capital with better returns than the absolutely 400 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 1: terrible and increasingly dogshit rates that you can find in China. 401 00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: And this is something that we've been seeing, you know, 402 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: in the last year. We've been watching sort of the 403 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: dogs come like the chickens come home to roost for 404 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 1: the Chinese economy, where like, you know, all this debt 405 00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 1: build ups paying off. Why I say it paying off, 406 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 1: all this debt build up is you know, like really 407 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 1: starting to damage the economy, Like the housing market is 408 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: kind of imploding, and you know, Belton Road was supposed 409 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,359 Speaker 1: to be sort of the answer to this. 410 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:21,640 Speaker 4: Right. 411 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,159 Speaker 1: If you combined, if you combine the fact that we 412 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: know for a fact that these loans are an attempt 413 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 1: to actually like generate returns, and we also know that 414 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 1: these loans are a way to sort of stimulate demand 415 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 1: for Chinese goods that there's no domestic market for, we 416 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,120 Speaker 1: get this clear picture of what's really driving Belton Road. 417 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,359 Speaker 1: It's the crisis of Chinese capital, which in and of 418 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 1: itself is just sort of a global reflection of the 419 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: global crisis of overproduction under consumption that's you know, haunted 420 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:51,399 Speaker 1: the world since the nineteen seventies. Now there's one last 421 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,680 Speaker 1: aspect of Belton Road that we need to talk about 422 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: that gets way less attention than any other aspect of 423 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 1: the initiative. Belton Road also acts as a work program 424 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:06,480 Speaker 1: for a very specific kind of Chinese worker. Builton Road projects, 425 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,360 Speaker 1: as we see in Jamaica are run by Chinese corporations 426 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:12,879 Speaker 1: almost always, I mean occasionally other firms get contracts. Mostly 427 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,879 Speaker 1: it's Chinese corporations and they import Chinese workers to do 428 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 1: the work. And you know, we've looked at it from 429 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 1: the Jamaican end, where you know, Jamaican workers are getting 430 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,200 Speaker 1: screw out of jobs and wages, but we should also 431 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 1: look at it from the perspective of Chinese workers as well. 432 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 1: Working in China, as we've discussed elsewhere extensively, sucks ass, 433 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 1: wages are dogshit, the hours are inhuman, and there's intense 434 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,120 Speaker 1: competition for what jobs do exist. On the other hand, 435 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,160 Speaker 1: salaries for Chinese workers on built in road projects are 436 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 1: much much higher than they are for the same job 437 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: in China. Amazingly, Chinese corporations abroad actually have less ability 438 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,639 Speaker 1: to just not pay people for their work, which is, 439 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 1: you know the thing that you know, usually the first 440 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 1: thing that rich people are trying to do. They when 441 00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 1: they have our face with having to pay someone in 442 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 1: Chinese corporations absolutely constantly attempt to just not pay their workers. 443 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 1: And as a bonus to that, on top of the 444 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,680 Speaker 1: fact that you're like actually getting paid, and you're getting 445 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,680 Speaker 1: paid way more than you would for working a job 446 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,920 Speaker 1: in China, these these Belton road jobs have a much 447 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 1: faster promotion track and the cost of living is much 448 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 1: lower than it is in China, which allows workers to 449 00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 1: save money and send remittance is back home. This means 450 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 1: that Belton road jobs, which are specifically, you know, in 451 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 1: sort of like nationalist circles, conceptualized as quote Africa, which 452 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 1: is oh boy, is seen as you know, it's seen 453 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,680 Speaker 1: as a way out for Chinese workers. And we actually 454 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 1: talked about this a long time ago in our Lying 455 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 1: Flat anti work episodes. Part of the origins of Lying 456 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 1: Flat was his reaction to this sort of like nationalist 457 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 1: discourse but like finding your own personal Africa to break 458 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 1: out of like Chinese involution. And you know, from this 459 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 1: kind of like ulternationalist, like really racist like concept, you 460 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,920 Speaker 1: get this like left wing backlash of co opting of 461 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 1: like the refusal to work. That that is, you know, 462 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 1: lying flat. But for our purposes right now, the important 463 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 1: thing about this is Belton Road was a solution to 464 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 1: a sort of new like highly educated Chinese working class 465 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: who you know, were suddenly realizing that like this education 466 00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 1: that they put literally everything into, and this like they 467 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,479 Speaker 1: sunk their entire lives into, was just going to get 468 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 1: them nowhere. And you know, Belton Road appeared as a 469 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,240 Speaker 1: sort of mirage of a way out, but it's not. 470 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,720 Speaker 1: It's not a way out for Chinese workers. It's it's 471 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 1: its own kind of imperialism. It's the same sort of 472 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 1: shit that oil companies do where they said highly paid 473 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,720 Speaker 1: American workers to oil wells in Nigeria to avoid having 474 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 1: to deal with, you know, a class of skilled and 475 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 1: politically sophisticated Nigerian oil workers. It's the same kind of 476 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:58,280 Speaker 1: sort of racial divide and conquer that funds Chinese workers 477 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 1: at the expense of workers in Jamaica, and that ultimately 478 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,360 Speaker 1: is the core of both Belton Road and the American 479 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 1: response to Belton Road. It is a desperate attempt to 480 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 1: keep the embers of capital burning by lighting the working 481 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: class on fire and feeding it to the flames. 482 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 4: It could Happen Here as a production of cool Zone Media. 483 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,480 Speaker 4: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 484 00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,760 Speaker 4: cool zonemedia dot com or check us out on the 485 00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,240 Speaker 4: iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 486 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:34,880 Speaker 4: You can find sources for It could Happen Here, updated 487 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:39,000 Speaker 4: monthly at coolzonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.