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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go from throwing out spect I'm saying it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabinet and we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 3: I'm Jill Glanton. I'm joined by Evan Abrams. Each and

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Speaker 3: every week, he is our research director here at the

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Speaker 3: Action Network, and we're going to dive into all of

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Speaker 3: the Sunday NFL action for week eleven. Brandon Anderson, he's

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Speaker 3: going to join us later in the show. He'll have

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Speaker 3: his hot reed and Patrick Emerson from Vegas Insider. He

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Speaker 3: joins us at the end of the show give us

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Speaker 3: an update on how Sportsbook's fared in Vegas this NFL Sunday.

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Speaker 3: But before we talk about Sunday games, Evan, let's talk

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Speaker 3: about arguably the game of the year this Monday Night

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Speaker 3: football Eagles and Chiefs. I feel like we've had a

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Speaker 3: few games of the year so far this year, but

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Speaker 3: I feel like this is legitimately the game of the

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Speaker 3: year because this was the Super Bowl matchup just back

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Speaker 3: in February. So Chiefs are two and a half point

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Speaker 3: home favorites with an over under forty five and a half.

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Speaker 3: And that's the part that maybe makes me a little

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Speaker 3: leary here because these two teams they played each other

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Speaker 3: in February and that total was closer to fifty and

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Speaker 3: we're seeing maybe the primetime under influence even come through

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Speaker 3: on Chiefs Eagles, two of the best teams in the NFL. Anyway,

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Speaker 3: I just found it interesting the two teams that you

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Speaker 3: know combine for seventy three points, this has a lower

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Speaker 3: total this time around.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is a little bit of redemption

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Speaker 2: for me. I like the Eagles again, I had it

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Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl, didn't work out, so well, we're

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Speaker 2: going to go for round two. Listen. The storyline here

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Speaker 2: is also as you mentioned, Unders crazy eleven and one

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Speaker 2: on Monday Night Football, Unders one Night Football, fifty six,

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Speaker 2: twenty eight and one since twenty one team. Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: mean that's a storyline. It's gonna be the game of

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Speaker 2: the year. I think you're gonna talk about in a second.

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Speaker 2: But Mahome's under three right three or left the dog,

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Speaker 2: the situation where you know, when he's a big favorite

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Speaker 2: tends not to cover under this number gets a little

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Speaker 2: crazy and the percentages for him. So I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think that's what I'm looking at from Kansas City Philly.

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Speaker 2: I think the interesting stat and listen, going into this game,

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Speaker 2: Philly and Kansas City both hadn't been an underdog all season,

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Speaker 2: and now Philly an underdog in this game is the

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Speaker 2: first time since nineteen ninety five two teams favor in

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Speaker 2: their first nine games now face off against each other.

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Speaker 2: So this is really a battle from a betting standpoint,

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Speaker 2: from a Super Bowl rematch standpoint, it's gonna be fun.

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Speaker 2: And I think Kansas City a little bit different in

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Speaker 2: this game. I think they're better defensively, not as good offensively.

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Speaker 2: I think they're running. They go with the run a

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Speaker 2: little bit more than they had been in the past,

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Speaker 2: which I think is kind of fascinating in the sense

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Speaker 2: of Philly's pretty good against the run, which I like

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Speaker 2: them better in this game than probably I did in

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, which is, you know, I like the three.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens.

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Speaker 3: And it's interesting too that it's not three right, because

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Speaker 3: now that long field isn't really playing as much of

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Speaker 3: a part, so now we're seeing two and a halfs.

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Speaker 3: But I will say Evan that I think this is

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Speaker 3: the game where we maybe see this top end Eagles team,

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Speaker 3: and we talked about this for weeks now, where they

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Speaker 3: kind of play to their competition. Sure, I think they're

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Speaker 3: gonna be foaming at the mouth obviously on a revenge spot,

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Speaker 3: but both teams coming off of buye here, I think

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Speaker 3: the Eagles needed to buy more than the Chiefs did,

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Speaker 3: even though the Chiefs coming off that loss to the

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Speaker 3: Broncos because they just they needed to get healthier. They

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Speaker 3: always are adding new pieces, like even safety Kevin Bayern.

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Speaker 3: He's been there for like a week and a half.

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Speaker 3: This is going to help him. He's a Pro Bowl safety.

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Speaker 3: He's going to be able to get a little more

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Speaker 3: acclimated in this defense. But the part that makes me

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Speaker 3: iffy is going into the buy. Why they needed to

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Speaker 3: get that work is because their defense is twenty second

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Speaker 3: in DVOA and lasting dv away to the tight end,

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Speaker 3: arguably the worst two things you can be bad at

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Speaker 3: when you're facing Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelcey and the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs right. So's that's the part where it just makes

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Speaker 3: me a little iffy, especially when we know historically Patrick

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Speaker 3: Mahomes with a fave under three or as an underdog,

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Speaker 3: typically covers over seventy percent of the time. So that's

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Speaker 3: kind of why right now, I'm gonna go Againstevan if

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Speaker 3: you take the two and a half, I'm gonna take

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs minus two and a half. But this total,

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Speaker 3: I still think that this is gonna go over now.

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Speaker 3: I know obviously we have the eleven and one historical

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Speaker 3: trend here, but I just think that these two offenses

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Speaker 3: can really click and the offensive side of the things,

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Speaker 3: that's where I'm looking at touchdown scorers already. I really

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Speaker 3: like Davonte Smith to get another touchdown this season. He's

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Speaker 3: got four this year. Naturally, a lot of people are

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Speaker 3: gonna be gravitating towards a j. Brown just because of

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Speaker 3: how he's played recently, and also looking at that Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl where he did score a touchdown, but Davante had

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Speaker 3: seven catches for one hundred yards in the Super Bowl too,

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Speaker 3: had a couple of red zone targets didn't end up

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Speaker 3: getting scoring because Jalen Hurts ran for three for touchdowns, right,

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Speaker 3: So once that happens, then nobody else is going to score, right. So,

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Speaker 3: and I do think the presence of AJ Brown should

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Speaker 3: actually help Davante. I think they'll probably slot Trent McDuffie

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Speaker 3: and really try to take Aj out of the game,

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Speaker 3: which should allow Davante to have a little bit better

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Speaker 3: of a matchup, which is why he was able to

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Speaker 3: score over the last couple of weeks. So DeVante Smith

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Speaker 3: is who I like on the Eagles side, But on

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Speaker 3: the Chief side, I think we got to go with

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Speaker 3: a long shot here, Evan. I think we got to

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Speaker 3: look at Noah Gray. Now, everybody's going to be on

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Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey, right because obviously you know Taylor is going

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Speaker 3: to be in the house, you know, but only one

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Speaker 3: touchdown this year for de Gray. But the Eagles, as

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Speaker 3: I just mentioned last and dv Away to the tight end,

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Speaker 3: they've allowed five touchdowns to that position. And it's not

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Speaker 3: like Gray is playing spot snaps here, right, He's playing

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Speaker 3: over fifty two percent of snaps. He's getting targets. If

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Speaker 3: you want to bet Kelsey around minus one oh five

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Speaker 3: minus one ten, yeah, he'll likely score. You're just not

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Speaker 3: getting the best value in this spot. I think if

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Speaker 3: you're going to take Travis Kelcey, maybe look at him

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Speaker 3: for first Chiefs touchdown anywhere between plus two fifty to

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Speaker 3: plus three ten. But I think, Noah, Gray, I think

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Speaker 3: we gotta take a long shot on the Chiefs here.

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Speaker 3: So I would you like any touchdown scores for this game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say, I will say this, do

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Speaker 2: a little Taylor Swiss research because I think there's a

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Speaker 2: chance she goes doesn't go. I don't know if that

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Speaker 2: impacts your Travis kelce Bevett.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not like I'm tracking her tour or whatever.

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Speaker 3: But just but at the same time, at least I

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Speaker 3: thought the report was that their parents are gonna meet.

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Speaker 3: Like again, it's too TMC for me. So but at

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Speaker 3: the same time, it is going to influence at least

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Speaker 3: the viewership of that game or whether or not she attend.

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Speaker 2: And then the touchdown bet I think is fun Kenneth game. Well,

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Speaker 2: anytimes five six to one first touchdown is actually thirty

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Speaker 2: three to one. Getting touches in the red zone, getting

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Speaker 2: touchdowns recently, you know there's a chance when you get

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Speaker 2: that touch push, maybe they get a little creative against

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Speaker 2: a good case defense. I think it's worth a gamble well.

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Speaker 3: And one of the things I'll bring up about Game well,

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Speaker 3: why I like that pick. So he scored first touchdown

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Speaker 3: against the Cowboys in the last game, and people might

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Speaker 3: now remember in that Super Bowl he scored a touchdown

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Speaker 3: but it was called back then Jalen Hurts branded into

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Speaker 3: the next play. So I remember because my guy doctor

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Speaker 3: Nick Giffin, he was on Game Well, and that obviously

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Speaker 3: didn't come through. So that's how we're taking up for Eagles. Chiefs. Now,

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Speaker 3: let's start looking at Sunday, where favorites go ten and

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Speaker 3: two straight up but only five and seven against the spread.

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Speaker 3: There were some pretty big favorites this week, favorites forty

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Speaker 3: three and fourteen straight up just since Week eight, but

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Speaker 3: five hundred against the spread, twenty six and twenty six,

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Speaker 3: So again not covering the spreads, but definitely winning outright

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Speaker 3: and even home teams ten and two straight up and

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Speaker 3: five and seven against the spread today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the other storyline which everyone was waiting for,

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Speaker 2: They're like, okay, recap, they're going to talk about unders

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Speaker 2: eight and four this week, ninety seven, sixty four and

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Speaker 2: one sixty point two percent and during Sunday Night football,

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Speaker 2: one hundred dollars better. Betting unders this season would be

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Speaker 2: up two thousand, four hundred and thirty four dollars just

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Speaker 2: doing nothing, just doing nothing, but Betton Unders just sitting there,

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Speaker 2: one hundred dollars a game, every single game. It's been

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Speaker 2: a crazy ride. So most profitable underseasons through eleven weeks

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Speaker 2: since nineteen ninety in order twenty twenty three, nineteen ninety one,

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, twenty twenty one. So it has been

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Speaker 2: a wild three years for unders and it continues. And

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Speaker 2: I know you mentioned this as well, but twenty five

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Speaker 2: and eight is night time unders this season, and primetime unders,

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Speaker 2: which would be night games, international games morning essentially, he

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Speaker 2: would call them standalone games. Sure, thirty and eight to

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Speaker 2: the under, So Wolf, we will see what Sunday Night

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Speaker 2: football happens right now. And obviously Chiefs Eagles forty five

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, what a time to be a touchdown better

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Speaker 3: I guess is that? But yeah, four teams on buy

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Speaker 3: this week, teams that we wouldn't really rely on for

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Speaker 3: touchdown scores that much anyway, such as the Falcons, the Colts,

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Speaker 3: the Patriots, and the Saints. Let's talk about the game

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Speaker 3: that I think is the best game, that at least

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Speaker 3: the game that I had the most fun today. Cardinals Texans.

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Speaker 3: Texans went twenty one to sixteen. The total does go under,

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Speaker 3: but the Texans do not cover as five and a

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Speaker 3: half point favorites. The total was at forty eight as well.

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Speaker 3: One of the most bet overs and also the Cardinals

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Speaker 3: one of the most bet public teams today, which is

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Speaker 3: interesting because now with Kyler Murray back, their ats fortunes

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Speaker 3: just change dramatically because Kyler Murray in his career on

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Speaker 3: the road is now eighteen nine and two against the

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Speaker 3: spread and as an underdog is twenty two to twelve

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Speaker 3: and two against the spread. And I bring that up

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Speaker 3: because Cardinals aren't likely to be favored in any game

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Speaker 3: the rest of the year, and also on the road

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Speaker 3: three games will likely be underdogs and road dogs is

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Speaker 3: against Pittsburgh, Chicago and the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I don't know if I learned anything new except

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Speaker 2: that more or less reaffirm some things for myself with

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Speaker 2: this game. So Arizona, I thought they'd be more frisky

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Speaker 2: with Kyler. I thought they'd be better as an underdog.

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Speaker 2: I think they would just be better overall as a team,

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Speaker 2: more explosive defensively. We know they haven't been good, and

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Speaker 2: obviously one wasn't going to change bringing Kyler into the equation.

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Speaker 2: So from Arizona's point of view, I get it. I

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Speaker 2: understand they they they lost by five, five and a

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Speaker 2: half six, probably the line earlier in the week depending

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Speaker 2: could have covered there. Potentially they got the Rams on

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Speaker 2: deck and then the Steelers, So I continue to think

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Speaker 2: they're going to be frisky. Those are Those are two

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Speaker 2: teams who are, you know, kind of roller coaster candidates

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Speaker 2: when you face them.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, well I'll say it.

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Speaker 4: C J.

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Speaker 3: Stroud got pretty lucky to win this game, and the

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Speaker 3: Texans got pretty lucky to win this game because look,

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Speaker 3: three hundred and thirty six passing yards and two touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: Him and Tank Dell look like Jerry Rice and Joe

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Speaker 3: Montana right now. But when you throw three interceptions in

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Speaker 3: a game, you don't typically win. That's two quarterbacks today,

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Speaker 3: both him and Jared Goff three interceptions in a game

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Speaker 3: and still able to come out with the victory. We'll

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Speaker 3: talk about that Lions game a little bit later, but

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Speaker 3: they really just crushed the Cardinals on third down. This

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Speaker 3: was an issue even last week on third down. I

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Speaker 3: brought this up where now the Cardinals they went three

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Speaker 3: for nine passing on third down, three for ten on

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Speaker 3: third down overall, they were two for fifteen on third

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Speaker 3: down last week. That's the issue, and that's why I

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Speaker 3: took Kyler Murray for an interception today because the receiver

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Speaker 3: skill level is just not there compared to where what

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Speaker 3: he's used to over the previous three seasons of success

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Speaker 3: with the Cardinals. But yeah, we got the full Kyler

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Speaker 3: game today, right, We got we got a rushing touchdown,

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Speaker 3: we got an early forty five yard touchdown to Rondale More.

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Speaker 3: Again I said before the game, I said, there's a

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Speaker 3: wide range of outcomes of what we could see from

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Speaker 3: Kyler today, and you got the full Kyler experience. I

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Speaker 3: will say that Stroud at the half was just dicing

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Speaker 3: up this team though. Two hundred and fifty nine passing

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Speaker 3: yards and two touchdowns and an interception. Like again, the

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Speaker 3: Texans are probably the funnest team to watch right now.

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Speaker 3: But at the same time, this Cardinals team is just

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Speaker 3: so frisky that it's really hard to fade them in

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Speaker 3: these spots.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would also say overall Houston fun schedule. In

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Speaker 2: the middle of three home games, they're winning six and four.

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Speaker 2: Here's a fun one too. Ready next week they can

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Speaker 2: go over their win total six and a half. So

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Speaker 2: they're at six and four right now. It's you know,

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Speaker 2: listen with Stroud on offense. Now, I understand the three

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Speaker 2: interceptions today, but he had two win three hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighteen attempts prior. So let's just assume this is just

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Speaker 2: a blip on the radar. And then you have Demigo,

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Speaker 2: who you know obviously running the defense. They're gonna be

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Speaker 2: dangerous for a long time there. Well, what two great

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Speaker 2: additions in an offseason to win six of your first

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Speaker 2: ten games.

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Speaker 3: Crazy, yeah, And I mean I know, obviously a lot

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Speaker 3: of it would be attributed to Stroud, but Tank Dell

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Speaker 3: makes his life way easier. And you know in the

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Speaker 3: fact that Demico Ryans has led this team to six

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Speaker 3: and four and is still not the favorite for Coach

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Speaker 3: of the Year because Dan Campbell is probably going to

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Speaker 3: lock that up within a couple of weeks. Again, just

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Speaker 3: true testament to the turnaround with Houston. We'll talk about

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Speaker 3: how the AFC South will shake out when we talk

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Speaker 3: about Jacksonville here in a little bit, but instead let's

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Speaker 3: move to the NFC North Bears Lions. Pretty roller coaster

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Speaker 3: of a game here because the Lions win thirty one

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Speaker 3: to twenty six, and the total does go over forty

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Speaker 3: seven and a half, but they do not cover as

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Speaker 3: seven and a half point home favorites, and that's something

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Speaker 3: that Evan I can't say we don't see very often

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Speaker 3: because that's something that has always been like a smash spot,

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Speaker 3: either the Lions indoors or at home, especially with Jared

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Speaker 3: goffa quarterback that's hitting. He's the most profitable quarterback in

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Speaker 3: that stretch. With doing that, he's over seventy percent to

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Speaker 3: ATS record. But I think the Lions, the one thing

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Speaker 3: I will say is give them props. They are still

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Speaker 3: seven and three against the spread this year, still one

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Speaker 3: of the best ATS records in the NFL despite the loss.

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Speaker 3: Whereas for the Bears since the start of last year,

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Speaker 3: they are six and twenty two. Straight up.

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, if you were holding a Bears taken

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Speaker 2: in this game, frustrating, I just but not even that.

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Speaker 2: Like I had plus nine, that was my major position

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Speaker 2: in this game. I felt good for so long, and

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Speaker 2: then all of a sudden you reminded yourself that you

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Speaker 2: had money on the Bears. And when Fields let that

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Speaker 2: ball loose and got kicked out of the bat at

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Speaker 2: the back of the end zone, you just keep saying

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Speaker 2: to yourself, there's an opportunity. I'm sitting next to someone

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Speaker 2: and I'm saying, hey, pointing towards the Bears game against

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Speaker 2: It's like he's gambled for long enough. You know that

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Speaker 2: in that position where Chicago absolutely needs to go downfield,

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Speaker 2: something could and will go wrong. And when it did,

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Speaker 2: it just but listen, here's the stat and I looked

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Speaker 2: it up, because when you look at the box score,

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Speaker 2: you say to yourself, Chicago almost didn't cover this game.

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Speaker 2: And obviously they did lose, but teams to lead by

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Speaker 2: ten plus at any point, So ten or more at

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Speaker 2: any point and end the game plus three or better

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Speaker 2: in the turnover margin. We're three hundred and sixty three

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Speaker 2: and eight straight up in the last decade. Bears lost

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Speaker 2: that game today somehow, some way, allowing two touchdowns to

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Speaker 2: the Lions in the final minutes. It's just unbelievable. And

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Speaker 2: here's another one for you. So when Bears opponents score

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Speaker 2: more than twenty points versus justin Fields, they're twenty one

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Speaker 2: to zero straight up. Okay, all six of Field's wins

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Speaker 2: have come with opponents scoring twenty points or less. It

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Speaker 2: just somehow, some way, they figure out a way to

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Speaker 2: just blow it. And yeah, I think the story of

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Speaker 2: today probably should be Detroit, but I can't help but

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Speaker 2: think about Chicago just looking really, really good against that

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Speaker 2: Detroit team in Detroit for three and a half quarters.

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Speaker 3: I like the fact that you said, look at the

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Speaker 3: box score and this should have been in a Chicago. I

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Speaker 3: literally have this written down of don't let the box

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Speaker 3: score fool you. The Bears blew this game because they

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Speaker 3: were up eleven entering the fourth quarter, and they got

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Speaker 3: three picks from Jared Goff, a guy who typically does

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Speaker 3: not throw interceptions at home. They got the DJ more touchdown,

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Speaker 3: and then they had two more drives in Lion's territory,

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Speaker 3: but they settled for the field goals, and you just

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Speaker 3: can't do that on the road. And this was just

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Speaker 3: setting up to be a huge disaster of a game

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Speaker 3: for Golf. He had two interceptions in his first seven

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Speaker 3: pass attempts. He was also one of the highest on

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Speaker 3: the board this week for an interception property. He was

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Speaker 3: around plus one forty five. Russell Russell Wilson is around

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Speaker 3: plus one fifty and even David Montgomery you got the

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Speaker 3: poetic revenge touchdown on his Bears. But yeah, not as

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Speaker 3: much to take away from that other than just the

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Speaker 3: fact that we talk about the Lions and their upcoming

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Speaker 3: schedule and now they only have one game left that

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Speaker 3: is outdoors, and it's actually going to be against the

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Speaker 3: Chicago team in week fourteen. The rest of their games

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Speaker 3: are indoors and that's typically where their offense thrives. So

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to just completely say, all right, well

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Speaker 3: that was a hiccup. Again, it's a divisional game. You

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Speaker 3: know that teams are going to play each other tough.

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Speaker 3: But going forward, I'm still feeling good about the Lions chances.

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Speaker 3: If anything, I was probably more a curse in the Bears,

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Speaker 3: being like, what are you doing? You're giving up your

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Speaker 3: good position, Why are you trying to win this game? Anyway,

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Speaker 3: We'll talk about those that division a little bit more

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Speaker 3: here when we talk about the Packers. But moving over

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Speaker 3: to the other North division though, where a lot has

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Speaker 3: happened since We've talked to Evan Steeers Browns in the

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Speaker 3: AFC North. That division is all over the place right now.

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Speaker 3: We're going to break that down in a second, but

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Speaker 3: let's talk about this game of Steeers Browns that on

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Speaker 3: paper was a snoozer. Watching it felt like a snoozer,

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Speaker 3: But that's what it is when you're watching Browns football

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Speaker 3: and you're watching two arguably backup quarterbacks. Kenny Pickett is

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Speaker 3: not a backup, but he probably should be. And the

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Speaker 3: Browns went thirteen to ten. The total of thirty four

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Speaker 3: and a half does go under. And this wasn't even

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Speaker 3: the lowest total of thirty four and a half that

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Speaker 3: we have had in the last ten years. Up was

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Speaker 3: actually to the Browns game last year in that Arctic

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Speaker 3: Bowl game against the Saints, another one that they lost,

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Speaker 3: of thirty two and a half. By the way, that

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Speaker 3: game also went under.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, as I say, close, thirty four second lowest total

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Speaker 2: since twenty twelve, so we expected some low scoring. I

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Speaker 2: believe the stat was nineteen four and one. Now to

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Speaker 2: the under since twenty twenty games with a total of

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Speaker 2: thirty seven or less. So when Vegas is telling you

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Speaker 2: that there's a small amount of points in the game.

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Speaker 2: There's no points, so it's going under it's working well.

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Speaker 2: But from like an actual game point of view, I

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Speaker 2: think it's easy to say here the Steelers voodoo is

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Speaker 2: just Donzo Thanks. They were eleven and one in one

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Speaker 2: score games in the last twelve I believe it was

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Speaker 2: almost something like twenty one and seven in the last

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Speaker 2: twenty eight one score games. So you know, most look

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Speaker 2: at most look at it as Tomlin, some look at

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Speaker 2: it as the defense, but either way, the way their

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Speaker 2: offense is played, and I believe it's forty five straight

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Speaker 2: games now without four hundred yards under Matt Canada, it's

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Speaker 2: like twilight Zone every single weekend. It's the same thing

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Speaker 2: every time with this quarterback and that team and watching

390
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Speaker 2: nausee and all these players, and you're expecting something different.

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Speaker 2: So it's tough because when you watch that game and

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Speaker 2: you say to yourself, third string quarterback, no Nick Chubb,

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Speaker 2: and of course, listen the Cleveland defense, some of the

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Speaker 2: craziest things en literally some of the craziest stuff we've

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Speaker 2: seen week in and week out from that team. But

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Speaker 2: even at ten to ten, he kind of didn't feel

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Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh was gonna win the game. And it's like

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Speaker 2: a reversal of fortune, right because through years and years

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Speaker 2: and years, we said to ourselves, Pittsburgh is the team

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Speaker 2: that was gonna come away with that game in Cleveland

401
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Speaker 2: was a team that was gonna blow it, and it

402
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Speaker 2: felt like the opposite today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was gonna say the Browns because one of

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Speaker 3: the trends that I looked up was the Browns are

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Speaker 3: six and two and one against the spread in their

406
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Speaker 3: last eight games with a backup quarterback. Now, a big

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Speaker 3: reason for that is their defense. But when I read

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Speaker 3: that trend, it was like, that feels like a Tomlin

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Speaker 3: trend like that probably shouldn't equate to the Browns here,

410
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Speaker 3: but this Browns pass defense, when you're when you have

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Speaker 3: an historic pass defense like this that allows like the

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Speaker 3: least amount of passing yards per game in over fifteen years, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna be in most games. And can you Picktt again?

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Speaker 3: Only one hundred and six passing yards over his last

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Speaker 3: four games. He has a total of four hundred and

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Speaker 3: twelve passing yards. For Kenny Pickett, He's completing fifty seven

417
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Speaker 3: percent of his passes. Somehow, with two backups and Lamar

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Speaker 3: Jackson in this division. He is the fourth best quarterback

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Speaker 3: in the AFC North.

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Speaker 2: Also Cleveland adding Joe Flacco, so they've got another quarterback

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Speaker 2: in the room. They go to Denver and then to

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Speaker 2: the Rams, so a little bit of a difficult situation.

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Speaker 2: But honestly, if they play it correctly, I think we've

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Speaker 2: seen between dtr PJ Walker and now having Flacco in

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Speaker 2: the room, just don't mess it up. Do enough to

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Speaker 2: allow your defense to keep you in the game, and

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Speaker 2: everything is going to be fine. And I think Cleveland's

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Speaker 2: going to be dangerous.

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Speaker 3: Before we talk about the AFC North, I just wanted

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Speaker 3: to mention as well, just if you look at the

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Speaker 3: box score, it's hilarious. They went seven for thirty one

432
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 3: on third down. There were seventeen punts in that game,

433
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 3: so like it was just a difficult slug to watch.

434
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 3: And that's AFC North football in general. And of the

435
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 3: AFC North right now, the Ravens they're at eight and three,

436
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 3: the Browns right behind them at seven and three, Steelers

437
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 3: are six and four, and the Bengals are five and five.

438
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 3: I think the Ravens probably have the easiest path. I mean,

439
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 3: obviously they're the best team. I mean, they lost Mark

440
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 3: Andrews in that Thursday game. That's probably not going to

441
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:12,680
Speaker 3: be as much of an impact of say, comparison to

442
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 3: like Joe Burrow or even Deshaun Watson to a lesser extent,

443
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 3: But you know, they got the Chargers Rams Jacksonville. Their

444
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 3: toughest game probably of the year is still the Niners

445
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 3: that they have to play later this year. But I

446
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 3: think the Ravens are still in the driver's seed in

447
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 3: this AFC North. I think the Browns are a little interesting.

448
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 3: You look at the schedule, like Denver is I don't

449
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 3: want to get too caught up in the Denver hype

450
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 3: just because they beat the Chiefs, like I'm still not

451
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 3: in on the Broncos yet. And again this Rams team, Yes,

452
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 3: they did beat the Seahawks today, but they eke that out.

453
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 3: They shouldn't have won that game. And then again they've

454
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 3: got Houston the Jets and since he like they could

455
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 3: easily win twelve games this year the Browns now. Is

456
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:50,719
Speaker 3: that going to be enough to win the division? Not

457
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 3: sure at this stage because of the way the Ravens

458
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 3: have been playing, But I think the Browns are comfortably

459
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 3: going to be in the playoffs. The Steelers though, they've

460
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 3: got since they get to have Cincy twice with Jake Browning,

461
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,160
Speaker 3: so I think that's probably the biggest edge to them

462
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 3: when that's coming around. But we've still got the Patriots,

463
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 3: they still got the Colts. Seattle is kind of regressing here,

464
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 3: so I don't think the Week eighteen game with them

465
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 3: playing Baltimore is really going to decide the division, but

466
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 3: it could like at this stage, so I don't want

467
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 3: to rule at the Steelers. But at the same time,

468
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 3: this still just feels like the Ravens division to win,

469
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 3: and the Browns I think, even with this defense is

470
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 3: still just not enough to overcome a team like the Ravens,

471
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 3: at least to catch them in the division. Now, time

472
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,679
Speaker 3: for the hot read from our own Brandon Anderson. Brandon,

473
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 3: what do you have us looking for for? Early Week

474
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 3: twelve lines?

475
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 2: Hot rap both day on ice rights, ice creams.

476
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 4: Nineteen sound nineteen horill so tight?

477
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 5: All right? Week twelve Thanksgiving Hot Read. I can almost

478
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 5: taste the stuffing and the mashed potatoes and gravy already.

479
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 5: We went two and o on the hot read this week.

480
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 5: Our grossest hot read of this season. Tommy DeVito and

481
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 5: the Giants came through for our plus ten. They want

482
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 5: outright Brown Steelers. We got six points of colv on

483
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 5: the under didn't need it, under by more than two touchdowns.

484
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 5: We are fourteen and six now on the hot read

485
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 5: for the season seventy percent, and we're gonna start on Thanksgiving.

486
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 5: My favorite part about Thanksgiving after all the turkey. The

487
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 5: pumpkin pie said nap right the trip to fan nap,

488
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 5: and usually that lines up with what we're seeing on

489
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 5: Thanksgiving Night. As these games have come about. Thanksgiving Night

490
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 5: unders are eleven and five all time, and I'm gonna

491
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 5: take that Thanksgiving Night under forty nine Ers Seahawks under

492
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 5: forty four Seattle. I've kind of turned on this team.

493
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 5: They gave away a win today against their Rams. Their

494
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 5: offense has really started to trend down in a big way,

495
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 5: like almost bottom ten over the last six weeks. Their

496
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 5: offense is really struggled against San Francisco's defense too. They

497
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 5: only scored fourteen point three points per game in three

498
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 5: games against San fran last year, and in the regular

499
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 5: season the two teams when they played these games max

500
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 5: at thirty four points. So we just didn't get a

501
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 5: lot of scoring here. Sales old line still hasn't been

502
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 5: great either, and I think that's going to struggle against

503
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 5: that forty nine ers pass rush. Obviously, Chase Young there

504
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 5: now on top of everything else, Sales's got a pretty

505
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 5: good pass rush too, so that might even deflate scoring

506
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 5: a little bit.

507
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 3: On the other side.

508
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 5: Why now, Well, obviously Thanksgiving comes soon, but Seattle got

509
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 5: some injuries that have me very concerned for this one.

510
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 5: Kenneth Walker oblique injury. We'll see if he can go.

511
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 5: I'm not sure that's a huge deal. With Charbonnay there,

512
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 5: but the big one is Gino Smith. He missed some

513
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,400
Speaker 5: time during the game. Looks like a bicep injury. We

514
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 5: might get Drew Lock here, and if it does become

515
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 5: Drew Lock, I think this total starts to drop in

516
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 5: a hurry. So Seattle has been at forty four below.

517
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 5: That's this number in six of their last seven. And

518
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 5: then a couple of our usual trends on the under

519
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 5: home underdog unders last two seasons sixty two percent. And

520
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 5: then this is a primetime under you know about the

521
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 5: prime time unders sixty two percent the last four years,

522
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 5: twenty five and eight so far this season, entering Sunday

523
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 5: night seventy six percent to the under, So you want

524
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 5: to grab the forty four that is the most common

525
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 5: total over the last five years. Forty four is their

526
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 5: top key number for totals. Forty three is probably next,

527
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 5: So we'd love to get about forty fourth the hook.

528
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 5: But I think this one goes down. Give me that

529
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 5: Thanksgiving Night under Niners Seahawks under forty four, and I'm

530
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 5: going to do another very similar one, Chiefs Raiders under

531
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 5: forty four and a half. This might surprise you a little,

532
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 5: but I know we normally we see Patrick Mahomes hanging

533
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 5: big numbers on the Raiders. That's been his trend for

534
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 5: his career. But these I think are two of the

535
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 5: more underrated defenses in the NFL right now. Last six weeks,

536
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 5: Chiefs are the number three defense by DVLA, top three

537
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 5: against the pass. They've been top three all season against

538
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,959
Speaker 5: wide receiver one bad news for Devanta Adams. That's the

539
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 5: best offense the Raiders have. The Raiders obviously are not

540
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 5: scoring a lot of points. They had thirteen on Sunday.

541
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 5: They have an eighteen or lower all but two of

542
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 5: their games. So the averaging under seventeen on the season,

543
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 5: got the rookie Aidan m'connell. I don't think we're gonna

544
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 5: see a lot of Raiders points. However, same last six weeks,

545
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 5: the Raiders defense has been pretty good. They're up to

546
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 5: thirteenth by DVA and we just saw Sunday they hild

547
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 5: Miami to twenty. They hung in there pretty well, so

548
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 5: it's been a top ten pass defense. They've been better

549
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 5: at home where they will be here. The one thing

550
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 5: that is weak for them still the run defense. But

551
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 5: the Chiefs are the worst run offense in the league

552
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 5: the last six weeks that same span, so I think

553
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 5: the matchup sets up well here for the Raiders to

554
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 5: kind of keep it close, hang around Antonio Pierce with

555
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 5: the Raiders, and now the Raiders are under in all

556
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 5: three of those games. We know the script. It's defense,

557
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 5: it's smash mouth, it's run the ball, chew up the clock.

558
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 5: That's of course what you want to do, is the Chiefs. Anyway,

559
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 5: Keith Mahomes on the sideline, Jacobs should get a lot

560
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 5: of carries. I think he can get some yardage against

561
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 5: the Chiefs and now just kind of chew up the.

562
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 3: Clock for us.

563
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 5: So Raiders on the season nine and two to the under,

564
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 5: Chiefs seven and two to the under. So that is

565
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 5: a sixteen and four combined eighty percent to the under.

566
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 5: On the season, Raiders games are at forty two or

567
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 5: below nine straight, we're going forty four and a half here.

568
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 5: I think this number starts to go down. Raiders games

569
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,400
Speaker 5: on the season averaging about thirty seven points per game,

570
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 5: Chiefs thirty nine just seems a little higher for me.

571
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 5: Right again, home underdog under here sixty two percent. And

572
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 5: then here's another trend for you. When we have a

573
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 5: home underdog of seven or more with a total above

574
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 5: forty four. We're just barely there right now. Over the

575
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 5: last decade, unders are eighty six, forty eight and two

576
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 5: sixty four percent to the under. So again, forty four

577
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 5: forty three. These are our key to total numbers. We're

578
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 5: just above. We get the hook this one. So I

579
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 5: want Raiders Chiefs under forty four and a half. Now

580
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 5: a little different here, we're playing before Monday night, Chiefs

581
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 5: total this week, you've been watching it. That dropped a

582
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 5: field goal this week, so I think that number probably

583
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 5: goes down again. And if you think about Chiefs players,

584
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:21,639
Speaker 5: if there could be like a big injury or something

585
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 5: that can really only help us based on who Chiefs

586
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 5: might lose. So hopefully it doesn't happen. Hopefully get a

587
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 5: good game here, but I'll take the under grab it

588
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 5: now Raiders Chiefs under forty four and a half. So

589
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 5: Week twelve hot reads are Thanksgiving Night, Seahawks, Niners under

590
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 5: forty four and then Chiefs Raiders Under forty four and

591
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 5: a half.

592
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 3: The Action Network podcast is presented by bet MGM. Used

593
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 3: bonus code Action when signing up to get up to

594
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 3: fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if your

595
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 3: first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

596
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

597
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

598
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 3: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, Evan,

599
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 3: let's keep looking at the rest of the Sunday slate. Here,

600
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 3: let's look at Seahawks' Rams Rams wins seventeen to sixteen,

601
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 3: but do not cover his minus one and a half

602
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 3: point favorites, and this line went all over the place

603
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 3: all week, so depending on maybe if you bet it

604
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 3: on Monday, you might have covered. But at least the

605
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 3: closing line the Rams did not cover, and the total

606
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 3: of forty four and a half does go under. But

607
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 3: the Seahawks got into position to win this game. I mean,

608
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,040
Speaker 3: Jason Myers just kind of threw up on himself. Like

609
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 3: he had made fifteen straight veal goals up to that point.

610
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 3: He had two fifty yarders in the game. They had two,

611
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 3: and there were two red zone trips by the Rams

612
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 3: by the eight minute mark of the fourth quarter. Of

613
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 3: their offense just looked terrible in this game. So I

614
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 3: was just shocked that they were able to eat this out.

615
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 3: And I'll be honest, man, I feel like someone needs

616
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 3: to put Matthew Stafford out of his misery. Like every

617
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 3: game he just gets crushed and looks you know what

618
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 3: it reminds me of. He looks old. But you know

619
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 3: what it reminds me of is like if you're walking along

620
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 3: and you saw like an old person just fall on

621
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 3: the street or something like that, Like it's just it

622
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 3: looks like it It's just like ooh, that looked like

623
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 3: it hurt every time that he gets hit in the

624
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 3: every game that he plays. It looks like he is

625
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 3: that old man who falls on the street.

626
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, he's the elder Statesman at this point.

627
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 2: I think it's Dak who is like the longest tenured,

628
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 2: but I believe Stafford's up there and every single week

629
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: you see and that's why he's miss games. That's why

630
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 2: he's you know, you look at the big Ben injury

631
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 2: chart that you've seen before, it kind of looks like

632
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 2: Stafford's too. But I think this story from this game,

633
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 2: no question, is kind of the situation with Seattle. Yeah,

634
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 2: and quarterback with Gino and Locke and what we think

635
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 2: Seattle could be doing going forward, especially now you're on

636
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 2: a short week with San Francisco on Thanksgiving and who boy,

637
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 2: Seattle schedule coming up is unreal. It is brutal unreal.

638
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 2: So Sam fr Francisco on Thanksgiving at Dallas on Thursday

639
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 2: Night football, now that is so that is after Thanksgiving,

640
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 2: they play Dallas on Thursday Night football, then they go

641
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 2: to San Francisco and then they play the Eagles. So

642
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 2: you get San Francisco right now twice in two and

643
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 2: three weeks and then you get the Eagles mixed in

644
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 2: there with the Cowboys. Man, this is this is just

645
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: not the time to have an injury, which you know

646
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 2: now if you watch the game, I will say this,

647
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 2: he did come back, he seemed all right. But Pete

648
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 2: Carroll did say postgame, you know, short week, difficult. So

649
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 2: is there a chance we see Lock potentially, but just

650
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: just a worry, worrisome thing either way, especially with the

651
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 2: team that just lost that heartbreaker well.

652
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 3: And the heartbreaker to who they lost to. The Rams

653
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 3: are not even close to an NFC contender, and that's

654
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 3: two losses this year that they have of those four

655
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 3: losses that they have, because they're six and four this year,

656
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 3: so if they don't make the playoffs, you can point

657
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 3: right to those two games at this stage. And it

658
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 3: is a big drop off from Gino Smith to Drew Lock.

659
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 2: So I was going to ask I just I think listen,

660
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 2: obviously there is a drop and from a accuracy point

661
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 2: of view, I think Gino Smith brings experience, usually lack

662
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 2: of turnovers, like I said, completion percentage. He brings a

663
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 2: sense of normal stability, yes, stability, and calmness. I think

664
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 2: to Seattle's offense that makes them dangerous. And I think

665
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 2: what Drew Lock brings to their offense is a little

666
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,719
Speaker 2: bit of Zachie Wilson, like a little bit of you know,

667
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 2: difficulty in some sort of level, like a you know,

668
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 2: erratic behavior. But we'll see how it goes.

669
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, So anyway, we'll see what happens with the Seahawks

670
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 3: here going forward. But if it could be a rough

671
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 3: couple of weeks coming up here for Seattle, especially where

672
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 3: they were leading the division entering today because of the

673
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 3: way the standing shook out. But now the Niners are

674
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,719
Speaker 3: back in control, all right. Chargers Packers. Packers win twenty

675
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 3: three to twenty. The total does go under a forty

676
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 3: four and a half and the Chargers is two and

677
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 3: a half point. Road favorites do not cover. They lose outright,

678
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 3: and why they were road favorites is still beyond me.

679
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 3: The Chargers. Chargers have played twenty eight games since the

680
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 3: start of last year, and twenty of them have now

681
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 3: finished with seven points. Finished within seven points. It's win

682
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 3: or lose. The Chargers are gonna charger.

683
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have to roll off a spiel here because

684
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 2: you know, losing by three today after losing by three

685
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 2: last week, it forced me to look it up. So

686
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 2: most games a signed by one score eight points since

687
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, five years fifty two is the Chargers tied

688
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 2: for the most with Minnesota, which is no shock to anybody.

689
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 2: So that is eight points or less since twenty nineteen,

690
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 2: last five years fifty two for the Chargers now fifty

691
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 2: three today and Minnesota fifty two right behind them. And

692
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 2: then the Chargers nineteenth loss by three points or less

693
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: than the last five years, most in the NFL. So

694
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 2: what you see on the screen week to week, it

695
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 2: matches what the stats said, which is it just keeps happening.

696
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 3: So when I'll ask you this, when they scored the

697
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 3: Chargers with five minutes to go to take the lead,

698
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:17,839
Speaker 3: did you think that they would hold that lead? Now,

699
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 3: before you answer no, that's a rhetorical question, because you're

700
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 3: a sane and logical person and you've seen this movie

701
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 3: before you knew what was coming. Yeah, and this Packers

702
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 3: defense pretty good today, Like overall, so there as a lot

703
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 3: of bend, don't break.

704
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 2: I wounna say. The craziest part about what you just

705
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 2: said is I even thought that with love and the

706
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 2: Packers on the other side, right Like, there wasn't even

707
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 2: a thought process of who is the other quarterback that's

708
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 2: going to be doing this to the Chargers defense? And

709
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 2: also Los Posa, right like, that was a pretty sad situation.

710
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 2: You really up sat coming off the field. It obviously

711
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:58,240
Speaker 2: impacts the defense, but yeah, I mean when the Chargers

712
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:01,439
Speaker 2: got the lead, everything seemed good, but everyone knew kind

713
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 2: of what was going to happen, and it's sad. Listen,

714
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 2: if I would ask a football fan who would watch

715
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert play quarterback every single week, what his record

716
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 2: is now through sixty starts, thank you, Chris, tell me

717
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: this twenty nine and thirty one, they would just be

718
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,359
Speaker 2: they'd be depressed. They'd be shocked because they would also

719
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 2: have to hear how he got to twenty nine and

720
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 2: thirty one.

721
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 3: You mentioned it all the time, dude, that Herbert is

722
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 3: a five hundred quarterback. And the thing is is that

723
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 3: we can get a lord with the skill set. And

724
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,759
Speaker 3: I you have road this down hard to pin this

725
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 3: loss on Herbert. No interceptions. They were seven to fourteen

726
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 3: on third down they took the lead. You know, he

727
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 3: had two hundred forty four passing years now, I will

728
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 3: say that most of that was done in the first half,

729
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 3: but they didn't really let them do that much in

730
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 3: the first half, but really let them come live in

731
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 3: the second half. And again, it's just one of those

732
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:54,359
Speaker 3: things that this Chargers defense just has a habit of

733
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 3: making opposing quarterbacks just look like Pro bowlers, like you know,

734
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 3: does every defense. Every quarterback that they face, they just

735
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 3: are able to move the ball on this defense. And

736
00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 3: that's why they ranked so low dv Away against a

737
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 3: lot of passing metrics. So going forward, I don't know, man,

738
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 3: Like I'm not gonna I'm not putting the Chargers anywhere

739
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 3: near the playoffs. Same thing with the Packers. So I

740
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 3: think with these two teams, let's see what their fortunes

741
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 3: are maybe a couple of weeks from now, but right

742
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 3: now I don't like what we're seeing from those two teams.

743
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 3: But Raiders Dolphins. Another team where I didn't really like

744
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 3: what I saw today just based on the output, was

745
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,760
Speaker 3: the Dolphins, who did end up winning twenty to thirteen

746
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 3: over the Raiders as fourteen home point favorites but obviously

747
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,720
Speaker 3: not covering, and the total does go under a forty

748
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 3: four and a half. I was really surprised by this

749
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 3: because this is usually a smash spot again with Tua,

750
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:47,240
Speaker 3: where when they're when their favorites of over four points

751
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 3: two was ten and zero straight up, they were seven

752
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 3: to two against the spread. They're now seven and three

753
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 3: against the spread in this spot. But this game shouldn't

754
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:59,359
Speaker 3: have been close. Like the Dolphins are averaging forty three

755
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 3: and a half points for home game coming into this game,

756
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,839
Speaker 3: and they had nine possessions their first nine possessions, they

757
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 3: only had two touchdowns to show for it, no punts,

758
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 3: and you want to know why because they had turnovers.

759
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 3: They had four turnovers in those nine drives, two fumbles,

760
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 3: an interception, a failed fourth down conversion. Honestly, the Raiders

761
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 3: had no business hanging around in this game. There were

762
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 3: four fourteen on third down. One of the few offensive

763
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 3: touchdowns they did get, or the only offensive touchdown rather

764
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 3: was DeVante Adams that probably could have been called to

765
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 3: push off Aidan O'Connell. Two interceptions, Josh Jacobs only thirty

766
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 3: nine rushing yards this Raiders like, look at the off

767
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 3: Look who that Raiders have to play coming up here?

768
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 3: They've got the Chiefs twice the Vikings Chargers and the

769
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 3: Colts to end the year. I don't see how they

770
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 3: can get to a playoff spot in that. And then

771
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,879
Speaker 3: the Dolphins their schedules starting to get a little bit later.

772
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 3: They get the Jets. Maybe you're gonna see Boyle instead

773
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:54,919
Speaker 3: of Zach Wilson. You know, the Commanders, Titans, Cowboys. Again,

774
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 3: there's there's some teams here where the Dolphins are really

775
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 3: in the driver's seat now to maybe really just lock

776
00:37:59,280 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 3: up the AFC.

777
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, looking at this game today, I

778
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 2: was surprised, and I think everyone else watching it was

779
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 2: that Miami didn't cover. They had a million chances million

780
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,399
Speaker 2: to get over that number and they didn't get there.

781
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 2: I think it's convenient for anyone who took the Raiders

782
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 2: to look at some stats which I had, you know,

783
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 2: in my article of you know, Pacific Standard teams going east,

784
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 2: all this stuff. The Raiders shouldn't have covered like the

785
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 2: number got there. It did work out, But with the

786
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 2: fact that they did cover Antonio Pierce three and zero

787
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 2: against the spread. As the Raiders coach, there's got to be,

788
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:42,919
Speaker 2: in my opinion, some regression there, some sort of move

789
00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 2: back I think on some level based on the matchup.

790
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,439
Speaker 2: There's probably a Raiders fade coming up now. They play

791
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 2: Kansas City next week at home before a bye week.

792
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 2: So I think depending on what the Chiefs do on

793
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 2: Monday Night football will depend a little bit on how

794
00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 2: you feel there. Now, looking from a wider scope a

795
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 2: little bit, double digit favorites fourteen and one straight up

796
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 2: this season and now with the Bucks cover because I

797
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 2: know that was a late game, it was ten and five.

798
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 2: I believe against the spread for those fourteen teams. I

799
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 2: mean going forward, Miami, I believe minus seven and a

800
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 2: half on Black Friday in the Jets, I mean I.

801
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,240
Speaker 3: Thinkak Wilson, Yeah, back Wilson will may not be playing

802
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,760
Speaker 3: in that game, by the way, which may drop the spread.

803
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 2: Yeah. And to be honestly, I think Miami it's a

804
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 2: good spot. I think it's a role spot. I think

805
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 2: it's a good one. I would probably like the Dolphins

806
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 2: in that. But we'll see. Not too much, yeah, not

807
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:47,320
Speaker 2: too much else to do there.

808
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 3: No, All right, Buccaneers forty nine Ers Niners win twenty

809
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 3: seven to fourteen, And that's important because thirteen the winning

810
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 3: margin here. The forty nine Ers were thirteen and a

811
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 3: half point favorites and the total of forty two and

812
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 3: a half does go under. But honestly, the Bucks tried.

813
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:09,919
Speaker 3: Just the Niners defense was just too good. I want

814
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 3: to break down how the end of this game went

815
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 3: because Niners had a thirteen point lead for most of

816
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 3: the second half, So if you were a Niners better,

817
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 3: you probably felt this isn't probably gonna come through. You know.

818
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 3: They ended up turning the ball over on fourth and

819
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 3: one in the Bucks territory where they might have been

820
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,480
Speaker 3: able to get a field goal, but it wasn't as

821
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 3: close as the way I'm describing it. But the Bucks

822
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 3: they had four drives into Niners territory to end the

823
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 3: game and did not score a touchdown or get any

824
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,320
Speaker 3: points from it. They had a turnover at the goal line,

825
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 3: they had an interception in the end zone, turnover on downs,

826
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 3: turnover on down, So very impressive by the Niners defense.

827
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 3: But man, was it super frustrating. If you were an

828
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 3: Over better, or if you were even just a Bucks better,

829
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 3: maybe you relate to the game and got to, you know,

830
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 3: twelve and a half.

831
00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had a bunch of Bucks numbers, So it

832
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 2: was frustrating at the end there and Tampa probably should

833
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 2: have covered, but San Francisco did what they did, And

834
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 2: if you bet Tampa, your fear the entire time was

835
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 2: that Baker couldn't get it done in the spot. And

836
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 2: you know, you assumed with the wide receivers and the weapons,

837
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 2: he'd be able to get downfield and kind of back

838
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 2: door like the spot was there. If you bet the eleven,

839
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 2: the twelve, the thirteen, thinking that they'd be down by

840
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,760
Speaker 2: this number and that you would have three, four whatever

841
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 2: chances in the second half, and it just didn't work

842
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,760
Speaker 2: out like that. That was the handicap. The stat Baker

843
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 2: being four and ten against the spread in the last

844
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 2: three seasons off a straight up win is just something

845
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 2: you should understand. He's a roller coaster, like the streak

846
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 2: is just not something he does. So he is now

847
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 2: thirty five forty five and one against the spread. He's

848
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 2: one of the worst quarterback week to week in terms

849
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 2: of covering in the last two decades. Just what he does.

850
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 2: And the thing that was most difficult, especially when you

851
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:57,839
Speaker 2: bet that number, is the Bucks had actually been good

852
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 2: on the road this year. They've been covering. They were

853
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 2: one of the two undefeated ATS teams with the Jaguars

854
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 2: on the road. So difficult, just a difficult spot. Now

855
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 2: if you flip it that throw that Perdy mad dayuk

856
00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 2: Ooh that was beauty. Like he made some really good

857
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 2: throws in that game. Yeah, I just he looked really,

858
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 2: really good and now you know, really good. He was

859
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 2: eight and one against the spread at home entering this

860
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 2: one and obviously didn't get the cover on the close,

861
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 2: but damn looks good.

862
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 3: Yeah. All right, let's wrap up the rest of these

863
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 3: Sunday games. We got four games left. Most of them

864
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 3: are blowouts. Cowboys Panthers. Cowboys win thirty three to ten.

865
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 3: The total forty three and a half does go under,

866
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 3: though no thanks to the Panthers, who were only able

867
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 3: to put up ten points, while the Cowboys do cover

868
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:49,879
Speaker 3: as ten and a half point favorites. And we talk

869
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,000
Speaker 3: about this every week. Evan cow Cowboys with that they

870
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 3: do well versus bad teams. They're thirty four and ten

871
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 3: straight up, thirty and thirteen to two against the spread

872
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 3: against teams that are under five hundred. Dak is a

873
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 3: quarterback and dating back to last year, Frank Reich two

874
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 3: to ten and one against the spread just in the

875
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 3: last thirteen games just set up to fail halftime. I mean,

876
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 3: Bryce Young was five for ten throwing the ball. He

877
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 3: sacked three times. One interesting stat before we move on

878
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 3: to the next game, though, Dron Bland, the rookie safety

879
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 3: for the Cowboys, fourth pick six of the year. That's

880
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 3: the fourth time ever that's ever been done in the

881
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 3: NFL in a season. Hasn't been done since the mid nineties,

882
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 3: and we still have quite a few games left of

883
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 3: the season to maybe even break that record for Deron Bland,

884
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 3: which is just interesting with the way that this Cowboys

885
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 3: defense is to how they just pour it on. But

886
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 3: Bland has just been one of the lucky recipients where

887
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 3: he just happens to be in the right spot in

888
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 3: the right time. Not in the right spot in the

889
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:44,879
Speaker 3: right time, though, is Zach Wilson with the New York

890
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 3: Jets one of the worst showings by a quarterback I

891
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 3: think we've seen this season, and that's saying something with

892
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 3: Tommy DeVito as a quarterback in the NFL. But the

893
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 3: Bills win thirty two to six. Bills do cover his

894
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 3: eight point home favorites, and the under of thirty nine

895
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:05,839
Speaker 3: and a half does come through because there were at

896
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 3: a point there, we hit the forty straight possession mark

897
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 3: without an offensive touchdown for the Jets, And it's sad

898
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 3: to say I probably watched thirty of them at least,

899
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:19,040
Speaker 3: you know, So what does that say about me and

900
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 3: what I'm doing with my time? What Bristall finally put us,

901
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 3: put us out of our misery, so we don't have

902
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,359
Speaker 3: to hear about that stat anymore. But the big thing,

903
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 3: especially coming up for Friday, for this Black Friday game

904
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:32,399
Speaker 3: against the Dolphins, is that Robert Sala. They benched Zach

905
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:35,399
Speaker 3: Wilson in this game and did not commit to him

906
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:36,919
Speaker 3: as a starter for the Friday game.

907
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:40,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the Jets have three straight home games

908
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 2: coming up, Miami, Atlanta, Houston. I think the who else

909
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 2: are you going to? Are you gonna play Tim Boyle

910
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,320
Speaker 2: in that spot? You're trying to learn something about Tim Boyle?

911
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 2: Like the change should have happened so long ago, a

912
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 2: long time ago that I don't really understand what the

913
00:44:56,600 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 2: change does now, right, Like, what is the point at

914
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 2: this moment to make the change? I mean, we've we've

915
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 2: heard the air and news, we've heard December Area, You're

916
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 2: still three four five is not coming back. So let's

917
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 2: just let's let's just say that we'll play, We'll play

918
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:18,439
Speaker 2: the game. Yeah, from up above, that's their strategy, right,

919
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 2: you have three home games right now, you've got to

920
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 2: go to and one at minimum a three and oh

921
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 2: it would put you right back right where you need

922
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 2: to be. Now you're gonna be underdog in two of them. Definitely, Uh, Atlanta,

923
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 2: you know who knows with that one. But I don't know.

924
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 2: I think they should have brought someone in so long ago,

925
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 2: and especially kind of kind of funny seeing flaccosun with

926
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,440
Speaker 2: the Browns on this exact day that Zach gets benched.

927
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:46,360
Speaker 2: But they need to find up should.

928
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:47,840
Speaker 3: Because Flacco was there a couple of years ago or

929
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 3: years ago now, or maybe it was last season rather,

930
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 3: And not only that, then you have Josh Dobbs, who

931
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 3: was readily available to all thirty one teams, and here

932
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 3: he is having a good time playing for minutes out

933
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:03,839
Speaker 3: of two to zero already in that spot. So yeah,

934
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 3: just it had to happen. It's just sad that it

935
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 3: happened now because it doesn't really move the needle at all,

936
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:11,880
Speaker 3: probably for the Jets. All right, another blowout though Titans

937
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:16,720
Speaker 3: Jaguars usually the Titans and Derreck Henry have owned this matchup,

938
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 3: but not today because the Jaguars kicked the crap out

939
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 3: of him thirty four to fourteen. This game wasn't even close.

940
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 3: Jaguars cover six and a half point favorites and the

941
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 3: total goes over. Will Levis just looked lost. I mean,

942
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:29,800
Speaker 3: they got into Titans territory a couple of times, and

943
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:33,240
Speaker 3: he looked like a guy who dips mao into his coffee.

944
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 3: Like it just was not a good outcome for a quarterback.

945
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:38,759
Speaker 3: Of why he kind of fell to the second round.

946
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 3: I mean they were down twenty seven to nothing before

947
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:42,760
Speaker 3: you even kind of knew it, and it was garbage

948
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 3: time touchdowns late, so it's not like those touchdowns were competitive.

949
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 3: But I think we got to pour one out now

950
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 3: for Derek Henry and really the Titans. I think they

951
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 3: really made a mistake here because they could have traded him,

952
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 3: and there were reports out there that they could have

953
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 3: had second round picks, either from the Eagles or other teams.

954
00:46:57,440 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 3: But he looked like he was running with cement and

955
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 3: his shoes, So it looks like it's going to be

956
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 3: an end of an era. I mean, they didn't really

957
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 3: do them a lot of favorites on the offensive line.

958
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 3: But at the same time, now Jaguars at seven and three,

959
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 3: they got a date with the Texans at six and

960
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 3: four on deck. That win is I mean, the Texans

961
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:15,440
Speaker 3: already they got to win in hands, so I don't

962
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:17,280
Speaker 3: want to call it a must win for the Jags

963
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,760
Speaker 3: at this stage, but if you want to win the division,

964
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 3: that feels like a must win game.

965
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,279
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, if I would have told you through

966
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 2: ten games three teams in the AFC South would be

967
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 2: five hundred are better, I'm not sure I would have

968
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 2: believed you. So that is a I saw that earlier

969
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 2: and I said, did not have them?

970
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:37,800
Speaker 3: Did not. If you can't see me, I'm shaking my

971
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,240
Speaker 3: head right now, just so you know, I like cannot

972
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 3: believe that. All right, let's end this off now. Giants Commanders.

973
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 3: Giants win thirty one to nineteen, probably the biggest up

974
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 3: It's the biggest upset of the day and the game

975
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 3: that I easily would have been wrong one hundred times

976
00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:53,240
Speaker 3: out of one hundred if I tried to pick the side.

977
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 3: The total does go over of thirty nine and a

978
00:47:56,239 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 3: half and the Commanders is seven and a half point

979
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 3: home favorites do not cover because Sam how and the

980
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,360
Speaker 3: Commanders are now one four and one against the spread

981
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:05,879
Speaker 3: in six home games. But Evan, I have to ask

982
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 3: you a question because I I've trashed Tommy DeVito. I mean,

983
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 3: I have a little bit of fun with it, you know,

984
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:12,440
Speaker 3: Danny DeVito, all that stuff. But do I have to

985
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 3: apologize to him now because I don't want to say

986
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,920
Speaker 3: he was good, but I mean he took nine sacks today,

987
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 3: five sacks just in the first quarter. Even Sam Howe

988
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 3: was like, that's a lot of sacks, you know, you know,

989
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 3: two hundred and forty six passing yards, three touchdowns and

990
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 3: the Giants punted seven times. And the fact that they

991
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 3: were still able to win this game. I just couldn't

992
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 3: believe it. That the fact that the Commanders weren't able

993
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 3: to muster up anything. And I will say, if you

994
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 3: were an underbetter my condolences, because there were fourteen points

995
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:45,800
Speaker 3: from these two woeful offenses in the final two minutes

996
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 3: of the game.

997
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:50,279
Speaker 2: Gross next week the Giants play the Patriots, so well,

998
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 2: maybe DeVito plays Mac and we can have a we

999
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 2: could figure out which ones it hits the bottom of

1000
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:55,760
Speaker 2: the barrel.

1001
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, that one I think is already going to be

1002
00:48:58,440 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 3: the last game of the week. I'm gonna ask you

1003
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 3: going to be like, it's telling the Beatles starting or

1004
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:03,359
Speaker 3: is mac Jones going to start next week? But yeah,

1005
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 3: maybe we might end up seeing a the Vito Zappi

1006
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 3: matchup for the Ages, so that should be interesting for

1007
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 3: week twelve. All right, that's all the games. Now, let's

1008
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 3: check in with Patrick Everson with Vegas Insider to see

1009
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 3: how sportsbooks fared in Las Vegas for week eleven.

1010
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:20,520
Speaker 4: Hey, Jill, thanks for having me back on the Action

1011
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 4: Network podcast. Obviously, we've still got a huge game coming

1012
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 4: up to finish week eleven, the Monday night game Super

1013
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:29,320
Speaker 4: Bowl rematch, and we'll touch on that in just a

1014
00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:31,920
Speaker 4: few minutes too, but talk about how the day unfolded

1015
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 4: on Sunday. I spoke with a couple of different odds

1016
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 4: makers across Las Vegas and they all said it was

1017
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 4: kind of a mixed bag.

1018
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 3: Throughout the day.

1019
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 4: If Chicago had held on to win that game against Detroit,

1020
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:47,560
Speaker 4: that would have probably changed the landscape considerably because Detroit

1021
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 4: was surely in everybody's money line parlays, and the public

1022
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 4: loves the money line parlays, and they certainly teased Detroit

1023
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 4: quite a bit six point teasers. Detroit was probably in

1024
00:49:57,000 --> 00:50:00,320
Speaker 4: a ton of those as well. So Detroit, they're on

1025
00:50:00,400 --> 00:50:02,359
Speaker 4: the teasers, gets throw on the money line parlays. By

1026
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,399
Speaker 4: scoring all those points in just the last few minutes

1027
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 4: of the game, I think that would have dynamically changed

1028
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 4: the landscape. As it turned out, it was probably a

1029
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 4: little bit of give and take for the books and

1030
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 4: for the public. Scott Shelton, behind the counter of betam

1031
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 4: Jam said, going into the Sunday night game, betam Jam Nevada.

1032
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 4: So he's just talking about the view from Vegas, not

1033
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:22,920
Speaker 4: necessarily betam Jam nationwide. But what he said is if

1034
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 4: the Vikes win, we have a decent winner for the day.

1035
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 4: If Denver wins and covers, we will lose for the day.

1036
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 4: So I'm going to take that to me. And a

1037
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 4: Vikings cover was kind of what they needed. They probably

1038
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:35,239
Speaker 4: would have preferred Vikings outright, but it sounds like at

1039
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 4: least betam Jim in Vegas getting a Vikings cover was good.

1040
00:50:38,560 --> 00:50:40,080
Speaker 4: But I did talk to a couple of other odds

1041
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 4: makers that said, look, it was just kind of give

1042
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,879
Speaker 4: and take and a real grind all day one told

1043
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:48,279
Speaker 4: me that the Broncos game tonight was definitely significant. He said,

1044
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 4: Broncos win Minnesota cover and under another prime time under folks,

1045
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:56,279
Speaker 4: just man, you can practically set your clock by it

1046
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 4: these days. But he said that was definitely a good

1047
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 4: result for us, helped us out as far as the

1048
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:02,839
Speaker 4: overall day. But he said the late window of games,

1049
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:04,840
Speaker 4: the four h five and four to twenty five Eastern

1050
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 4: time games, did not go well. And another odds maker

1051
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,319
Speaker 4: told me the exact same thing. Those late games did

1052
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:12,839
Speaker 4: not go well at all. I said, all three late

1053
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:16,439
Speaker 4: games were losers for us, and in particular, he noted

1054
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 4: that Bill's jets, he's like Bill's buy a million.

1055
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 3: That wasn't good.

1056
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:25,240
Speaker 4: The forty nine ers by thirteen exactly not good. Probably

1057
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:27,319
Speaker 4: landed on a number that that odds maker had at

1058
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 4: for a while. So not necessarily a bad day for bookmakers,

1059
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 4: but certainly not a good day. Some give and take,

1060
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:36,800
Speaker 4: and it sounds like the sports betterers may have gotten

1061
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:40,879
Speaker 4: a little bit back as well, but nobody really made

1062
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 4: a banner day of it on either side of the counter.

1063
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 4: Taking a look at the Monday night game, look, as

1064
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:47,839
Speaker 4: I alluded to, before it's a Super Bowl rematch, it's

1065
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 4: a massive game. This thing is going to get the

1066
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 4: living Daylight's bet out of it, and there probably will

1067
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 4: be some parlay moneyline parlay liability running to it. And

1068
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 4: I would guess that that parlay liability will online parliability

1069
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 4: especially will probably run to the Chiefs. But certainly people

1070
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:05,839
Speaker 4: are going to put some money on the Eagles. That's

1071
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 4: a very good football team, as we know. But heading

1072
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,480
Speaker 4: into Sunday at bet MGM on the spread, sixty percent

1073
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 4: of tickets seventy seven percent of money on the Chiefs

1074
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 4: exact opposite on the money line, they're playing and taking

1075
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,319
Speaker 4: the plus money with the Eagles on the money line

1076
00:52:23,680 --> 00:52:26,959
Speaker 4: seventy two percent of tickets, seventy nine percent of money.

1077
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 4: So it'll be interesting to see how that evolves over

1078
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:30,919
Speaker 4: the course of the day. Although I don't I would

1079
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 4: bet it doesn't change a whole lot. I would think

1080
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:34,320
Speaker 4: the Chiefs are going to be the pick on the

1081
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:37,799
Speaker 4: spread and the betters are going to like that plus

1082
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 4: money on the money line.

1083
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 3: With the Eagles.

1084
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 4: Looking ahead to Week twelve, obviously the numbers have all

1085
00:52:45,520 --> 00:52:47,640
Speaker 4: been up. Some of these are already getting bet into

1086
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:51,759
Speaker 4: and moving really interesting slate. We've got all thirty two

1087
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 4: teams in action, sixteen games, three on Thanksgiving and one

1088
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,760
Speaker 4: on Friday, the Dolphins against the Jets. It's not exactly

1089
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 4: the most breathtaking game, but we're getting some Friday football.

1090
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 4: So we're getting football on Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday

1091
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:07,880
Speaker 4: of this coming week. And and one odds maker I

1092
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:11,320
Speaker 4: spoke with on this Sunday night, Jill, said that the

1093
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 4: Niners Seahawks game, which I think is the most compelling

1094
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 4: of these Thanksgiving games. It's the nightcap on Thanksgiving. It

1095
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 4: opened seven and a half, but Seahawks qby Gino Smith.

1096
00:53:21,000 --> 00:53:22,880
Speaker 4: He deemed up his elbow today he was able to

1097
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:24,759
Speaker 4: come back and play for the Seahawks and that lost

1098
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:28,400
Speaker 4: to the Rams. But the line was really volatile on

1099
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:30,520
Speaker 4: Sunday night. It got as high as minus nine, got

1100
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 4: as low as minus six on the Niners settled in

1101
00:53:33,000 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 4: up minus seven. And the oddsmaker said San Fran will

1102
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 4: be in every parley and money line parlay and the

1103
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 4: three legged Turkey, the three leg money line parlay, Lions, Cowboys.

1104
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 3: Forty nine ers.

1105
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:47,960
Speaker 4: He said he expects that to be hugely popular on

1106
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving Day, so the book could very well need Seahawks

1107
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:53,719
Speaker 4: outright for a big decision. If the Lions and the

1108
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:56,319
Speaker 4: Cowboys get their outright on the money line and they're

1109
00:53:56,360 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 4: expected to as favorites on Thanksgiving Day, then at Seahawks

1110
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:03,320
Speaker 4: forty nine Ers game could be a huge decision for

1111
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:06,400
Speaker 4: the books come Thursday night while we're all trying to

1112
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 4: settle off our you know, on all the food we've

1113
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:12,719
Speaker 4: pounded and beverages we've pounded in one more game and

1114
00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:14,800
Speaker 4: it could be a very big one for the books. Obviously,

1115
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 4: that means it could be a very big one for

1116
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 4: the betters who do go after that three leg money

1117
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 4: line parlay of Lions, Cowboys, Niners, Jaguars, Texans. Another interesting

1118
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 4: game and it hasn't moved it all tonight. But what's

1119
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 4: interesting about it is that an open pick them, and

1120
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 4: you've got C J. Stroud and Houston looking to tie

1121
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 4: Jacksonville for first and the AFC South and again open

1122
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:36,120
Speaker 4: pick them, and the odds maker said for some context

1123
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:37,720
Speaker 4: on Houston's progress this season.

1124
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 3: In the preseason, this game had a.

1125
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:41,799
Speaker 4: Spread of Jacksonville minus four and a half. And then

1126
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 4: you've also got Bills and Eagles. Another pretty compelling game

1127
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:46,680
Speaker 4: in NFL Week twelve.

1128
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 3: Philly.

1129
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 4: Again, we knowed at the top they still have to

1130
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:53,440
Speaker 4: play the week eleven Monday Night or against the Chiefs,

1131
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:56,479
Speaker 4: a Super Bowl rematch against the Chiefs, But the odds

1132
00:54:56,560 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 4: maker opened Eagles and minus Street minus one twenty and

1133
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,320
Speaker 4: what he said was open any higher than three is

1134
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:05,799
Speaker 4: really asking for wiseky action on Buffalo, especially since Philadelphia

1135
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:09,279
Speaker 4: will be coming off an emotional game. No matter the

1136
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:12,239
Speaker 4: outcome in Kansas City, whether Philly wins or loses, it's

1137
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:13,920
Speaker 4: going to be an emotional game that they're coming off

1138
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:16,399
Speaker 4: of an emotional higher and emotional low, So they don't

1139
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:18,440
Speaker 4: want to get too tricky with that with that spread

1140
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:20,319
Speaker 4: on Bills and Eagles just yet.

1141
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:22,840
Speaker 3: Thank you Patrick, Thank you again for listening to the

1142
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:26,840
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast presented by BEDAMGM. Enjoy Monday Night football

1143
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 3: and keep an eye out for all of our NFL

1144
00:55:28,640 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 3: Week twelve podcasts right here on the Action Network.

1145
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:56,280
Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers, We're thankful for you. Action Network reminds

1146
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you can

1147
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 1: hereabout has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1148
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred. Gambler