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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

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Speaker 2: I got five dollars. This is a regular lep Hoby tackled.

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Speaker 2: Hit one man. You're saying that humans need fantasy to

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Speaker 2: make life bearable. Humans need fantasy to be human. My goodness,

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Speaker 2: that was good.

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Speaker 3: I suppose the best, relentless refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that.

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Speaker 3: Horn, baby less and welcome to the Action Network Fantasy

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Speaker 3: Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 2: This is our week six player prop.

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Speaker 3: Addition, we'll also talk about Sunday Night Football, the Showdown Slee.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, joined us always by my dude,

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Speaker 3: Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 2: Sean, how's it going?

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Speaker 1: What's up? I think we did pretty good last week? Right,

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Speaker 1: I went four and one, I believe did you see

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Speaker 1: how you think?

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Speaker 3: I went to three? So I think you have carrying us.

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Speaker 3: I think Monte Smith went over his reception total, so

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Speaker 3: that you're.

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Speaker 1: You're obviously due. So I'm doing a four to five

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Speaker 1: flex play with all your props this week here.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely do Yeah, I mean I did call Robert Woods

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Speaker 3: on that last Thursday slates.

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Speaker 2: Yeah that was good. But yeah, let's let's talk about

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Speaker 2: the uh.

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Speaker 3: We'll start off this one, we'll talk about the Sunday

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Speaker 3: Showdown slate, the Sunday Night Football, and then we'll get

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Speaker 3: into our.

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Speaker 2: Top ten props.

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Speaker 3: So let's get into the Steelers and Seahawks Sunday Night

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Speaker 3: football matchup. Sean, when you're thinking about the captain spot here,

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Speaker 3: who are you looking at? Of course Seattle? You know,

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Speaker 3: seems like some of their top options are a little

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Speaker 3: less intriguing with Gino Smith at the helm. So are

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Speaker 3: you going with Steelers here? Are you going a little

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Speaker 3: more contrarian?

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Speaker 1: It begins and ends with Chase clay Pool For me,

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, Juju out, we could see Chase

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Speaker 1: Claypool line up more in the slot. He's he's been

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Speaker 1: a guy that I've been just waiting to break out

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Speaker 1: even more than he has to date. So I think

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Speaker 1: the Juju injury might just push him over the edge here.

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Speaker 1: And you know, through weeks one through four, you know

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Speaker 1: Claypool line up in the slot about fifteen percent of

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Speaker 1: the time, and last week, once Juju left the game,

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Speaker 1: he lined up on the slot forty percent of the

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Speaker 1: time and he caught both slot targets for seventy seven

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Speaker 1: yards and a touchdown. So I think just lining up

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Speaker 1: in the slot more will help elevate his floor end ceiling. Honestly,

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Speaker 1: so I think this is a good spot to go

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Speaker 1: all in on him. I know he's going to be popular.

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Speaker 1: I don't care. Just I think this is the game

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Speaker 1: to kind of captain him and then I'll get contrari

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Speaker 1: and elsewhere in my lineup.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, quay Pool, I mean, I think all the Steelers

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Speaker 3: receivers are obviously in play here. Deontay Johnson is another guy.

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Speaker 3: I think he's been there. So the thing was Seattle

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Speaker 3: is they play a ton of ZWN coverage and this

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Speaker 3: is completely opposite of Denver.

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Speaker 2: So last week I.

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Speaker 3: Was on Claypool heavy, he wasn't very popular because you

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Speaker 3: know he's coming back from injury.

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Speaker 2: It looked kind of like a tough matchup.

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Speaker 3: But this week, I'm actually expecting, you know, everyone to

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Speaker 3: get involved a little more. I think Deontay Johnson will

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Speaker 3: be the top target. But and so he's obviously going

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Speaker 3: to be in my captain spots. You don't really have

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Speaker 3: to worry about like stacking Roethlisberger and your captain spot.

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Speaker 3: He's not like a running quarterback, So I think this

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Speaker 3: is a spot where you go either Deontay Johnson or

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Speaker 3: you go Najie Harris, who I think he's by running

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Speaker 3: back two on the week now with Christian McCaffrey looking

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Speaker 3: questionable and missing practice, so love Najie Harris in this spot.

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh at home, in a good spot for their defense

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Speaker 3: against Geno Smith.

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Speaker 2: I expect Pittsburgh to have the ball a ton.

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Speaker 3: I know they're going to manage Naji's reps a little bit,

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Speaker 3: but because he cramped up last game, but this has

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Speaker 3: still been the Essentially he's getting Chrisian McCaffery usage this year,

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Speaker 3: Like he's been on the field almost every snap all

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Speaker 3: season long, so this could just be a smash spot

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Speaker 3: for him. I think it will be on all the

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Speaker 3: important downs. And this is actually a good spot for Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: You know, sometimes they come out flat when they're expected

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Speaker 3: to win, but the line has been moving steadily toward them.

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Speaker 3: It opened at three and a half, it's up to

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Speaker 3: five and a half at most books. The Steers are

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Speaker 3: twenty three and eight against the spread, seventy four percent

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Speaker 3: when the line moves toward them as a home favorite.

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Speaker 3: With Rossolsberger at quarterbacks, so I think this is going

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Speaker 3: to be a good spot for him. Expect Naji to

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Speaker 3: have a lot of success against this middling Seattle D

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Speaker 3: And I think it's one thing about Pittsburgh is like

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Speaker 3: their offense kind of it's been looking shaky, but they

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Speaker 3: played a bunch of teams that are pretty good on.

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Speaker 2: D Like Seattle's the easiest deep they faced yet.

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Speaker 3: Seattle's number twenty five and DVA Buffalo was number one,

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Speaker 3: Cincinnati was number seven, Vegas was number thirteen, Denver was ten,

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Speaker 3: and green Bay was the only below average when they

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Speaker 3: face their twentieth but this is by far the easiest matchup.

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Speaker 1: So I like all the star players for Pittsburgh. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so you're not taking any flyers on Seattle. I'm kind

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Speaker 1: of with you there. I think if anything, maybe DK

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Speaker 1: Metcalf might be sneaky and the captain slot, he'd be

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Speaker 1: a guy I'd be more interested in on like a

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Speaker 1: main slate. If he were there, he'd be overlooked, but

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Speaker 1: certainly for one game showdown slate, his rostership percentage still

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Speaker 1: might be pretty high. But I think if if there's

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Speaker 1: one guy I kind of want to attack on Seattle,

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Speaker 1: it'd be Dk, because even though they have Gino Smith

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Speaker 1: under center, like DK is good enough, they could just

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Speaker 1: force feed him and he could be sort of a

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Speaker 1: target hog and still end up with two touchdowns. So

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Speaker 1: that's why I would still be interested in considering DK

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Speaker 1: Metcalf as my captain.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Metcalf and Lockett they're like secondary absence

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Speaker 3: for me. But I'm focused on Pittsburgh here just because

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Speaker 3: at the higher touchdown upside in his game. And I

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Speaker 3: worry about Geno under pressure too, So I guess we

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Speaker 3: could talk about like our key codes.

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Speaker 2: I love the Steelers defense.

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Speaker 3: I might even captain them in a couple of spots

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Speaker 3: because they're getting pressure at the fifth highest rate in

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Speaker 3: the league. Gino Smith, even though he looked good last week,

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Speaker 3: and you know it was a primetime game, he's like, oh,

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Speaker 3: you quit it himself. Well, I think Lockett fell down

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Speaker 3: on the interception, but overall he was two of eight

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Speaker 3: for twelve yards with that pick under pressure and pressure

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Speaker 3: creates these kind of things, even though it wasn't necessarily

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Speaker 3: his fault that he threw the pick. You know, you

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Speaker 3: throw the ball early, you don't get a chance to

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Speaker 3: watch to see that the receiver fell down, and that's

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Speaker 3: how you throw picks, so.

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be really tough for him.

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Speaker 3: You go back to his last full season as a starter,

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Speaker 3: and he had a sub forty completion percentage under pressure

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Speaker 3: of passer rating below sixty. So he has never been

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Speaker 3: good under pressure. That's why he's not a full time

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Speaker 3: starting NFL quarterback. That's why he's a backup. So I

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Speaker 3: just think it's going to be a really tough spot,

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Speaker 3: even though they have the long week for him. So

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Speaker 3: that's why you know, I expect Seattle to be in

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Speaker 3: comeback mode. So I will be rostering Metcalf, will be

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Speaker 3: rostering Lockett. But love the Steelers defense. And then another guy,

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Speaker 3: and I'm curious how you feel about him. But I

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Speaker 3: saw that James Washington return to practice today and I'm

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Speaker 3: captaining him like he's if he plays, I'm absolutely captaining

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Speaker 3: him because remember what I always say about Seattle. Watch

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Speaker 3: for that matchup at left corner. They tray Flowers, they

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Speaker 3: let him go. You want to know what Sidney Jones

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Speaker 3: has done in his place. He's given up one hundred

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Speaker 3: yards and a touchdown in both games as a starter.

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Speaker 3: So for the year, this is Sidney Jones' stat line

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Speaker 3: for the year, eleven completions on fourteen targets, two hundred

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Speaker 3: and seventy yards and two touchdowns, no picks. That's James Washington.

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Speaker 3: Fifty six percent lined up on the right, twenty four

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Speaker 3: percent in the slot, and twenty percent on the left.

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Speaker 3: So James Washington is going to if he's active, He's

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Speaker 3: going to run the majority of his routes at a

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Speaker 3: guy that's given up twenty yards per target. Essentially, Like

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Speaker 3: this is a dream matchup for Washington. So that's why

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Speaker 3: I'm like, I know Claypool and Deonta are going to

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Speaker 3: be the higher own guys, so I'll probably I think

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Speaker 3: Claypool might even be the highest home because you get

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Speaker 3: a little bit of a discount with him compared to

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Speaker 3: Deontay compared to Nagy. So like for me, I'm actually

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Speaker 3: gonna probably have the highest percentage of Washington, followed by

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Speaker 3: you know, Deontay and clap Pool actually the least of

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Speaker 3: the three. I'm still roster and all of them, but yeah,

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Speaker 3: I love me some James Washington this week.

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Speaker 2: It's like the Robert Woods. It's the same thing, yep.

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Speaker 1: And he so he was one of my cheat codes

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Speaker 1: as well as I signed it off.

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Speaker 3: I was like, no way, I'm not letting you steal

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Speaker 3: my pattle versus left cornerbacks.

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Speaker 1: You knew it was killing, But obviously we have to

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Speaker 1: see we have to see if he can even play.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like you said, he's the only to growing injury.

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Speaker 3: But if not, I'm playing Cody White or whoever, like

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Speaker 3: I'm playing Cloud whoever it is.

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Speaker 1: You just signed Anthony Miller to the practice squad. We

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Speaker 1: can always, uh, you know, keep an eye on him.

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Speaker 1: But you know, if if the Texans decided to Anthony

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Speaker 1: emil Or wasn't meant to be for them, maybe we

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Speaker 1: shouldn't really consider him going forward. But yeah, I love

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Speaker 1: the James Washington call. He's a guy where you know,

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Speaker 1: Chase Claypole is lining up more in the slot, James

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Speaker 1: Washington could be the main deep threat. He he is

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Speaker 1: the main deep threat. So you know, unfortunately, the way

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Speaker 1: Big Ben's playing now and with Najee Harris there, they're

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Speaker 1: more balanced. You know, James Washington projection won't be as

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Speaker 1: high as it would have been said last year if

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Speaker 1: one of these receivers went down, But certainly Washington's a

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Speaker 1: sneaky play here would not surprise me if he catches

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Speaker 1: a deep pass, potential for a touchdown. So perfect time

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Speaker 1: to play you know, a guy like him, and also

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Speaker 1: perfect time to take a fire pat Firemouth. You know,

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Speaker 1: this is a situation where the Steelers may ought to

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Speaker 1: go more to tight end sets. I think it's only

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Speaker 1: a matter of time until the rookie overtakes Eric Ebron.

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Speaker 1: So love taking Flyers on these kind of tight ends

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Speaker 1: in showdown slates. And just imagine if if you know,

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Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts wasn't the generational talent he was, you know,

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Speaker 1: we'd be talking about Firemouth a lot more being the

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Speaker 1: best rookie tight end in this class. I mean he

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Speaker 1: was nicknamed baby Grunt for a reason. I mean, go

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Speaker 1: his college film. He's he's a legit receiving tight end.

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Speaker 1: He flashed in preseason, so he has all the tools

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Speaker 1: to you know, potentially have a breakout performance this week.

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Speaker 1: So I'm definitely gonna be rostering for on quite a

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Speaker 1: few teams this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like I like the Fryar Mooth call because again,

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Speaker 3: this is gonna be a zone heavy scheme for Seattle.

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Speaker 3: Tight ends tend to do better in zone coverage. Only

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Speaker 3: the very best tight ends are going to consistently beat

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Speaker 3: man coverage and quarterbacks are gonna look for them, you know,

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Speaker 3: because he also got to have the quarterback looking for

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Speaker 3: you in those spots. But against Seattle, it's just a

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Speaker 3: matter of coming open, finding a spot in his zone.

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Speaker 3: Uh So I think, yeah, I think this will be

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Speaker 3: a good, firemooth game. And you know, for those those

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Speaker 3: really like if you're going super like studs and scrubs here,

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Speaker 3: I should mention that, well, two things number one, and

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Speaker 3: it goes back to the reason I like nause.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you've noticed, but Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: Changed its whole blocking scheme last week, so they went

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Speaker 3: completely man blocking. They didn't run any outside zone any like.

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Speaker 3: It was all just man on a man and block

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Speaker 3: and push forward. And they had an average yards before

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Speaker 3: contact of one point seven, which that's pretty good for

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Speaker 3: them because through the first four games they had sixty

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Speaker 3: four carries and just sixty one yards before contact, so

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Speaker 3: they essentially doubled their yards before contact last week switching

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Speaker 3: to the scheme against a very good Denver d But

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Speaker 3: we know what that also meant that they also increased

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Speaker 3: the playing time of some of their heavy personnel guys,

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Speaker 3: which so if you're gonna play some James Washington and

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Speaker 3: you're multi entering, a good hedge is to take a

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Speaker 3: flyer on a guy like not only Friar moves, but

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Speaker 3: like Zach Gentry, who snaps went up to thirty four

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Speaker 3: percent of season high last year.

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Speaker 2: He's the third tight end.

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Speaker 3: And even Derek Watt played a season high at the

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Speaker 3: full back and snaps.

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Speaker 2: So like, literally, what I.

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Speaker 1: Think you're gonna mention Ray Ray McLeod, But you went

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Speaker 1: to the Zach Gentry out. We were really scraped.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, this is one. This is one where you

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Speaker 3: get like, let's say you get down to the goal

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Speaker 3: line and everyone has like Najee Harris captains or something

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Speaker 3: like that, and you do a little playfake and and

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Speaker 3: Gentry or what gets that easy like walking touchdown Like

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Speaker 3: that could change the entire sleep.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Derek Watt is that guy. Yeah, he is

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Speaker 1: the troll of this light. The potential troll of this

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Speaker 1: light is Derek Watt for sure.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, because Nick Bellore, I just think I don't think

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Speaker 2: he's still not playing. You know, he's not he's not

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Speaker 2: doing enough yet, you know. On the other side of it,

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Speaker 2: and the other is like four running backs.

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Speaker 1: So when it comes to the Seattle running back situation, though,

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Speaker 1: like if Chris Carson is active, I'm just avoiding the

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Speaker 1: running back situation completely. It would take Chris Carson being

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Speaker 1: inactive for me to consider, you know, playing a guy

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Speaker 1: like Alex Collins. That would be preferable if Chris Carson

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Speaker 1: just rests another week and then we could play some

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Speaker 1: mout Collins. But I don't think we could trust either

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Speaker 1: if Carson is active.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's gonna I mean, listen, the one thing about

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Speaker 3: Seattle we know they're gonna do is run the ball.

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Speaker 2: Like they're gonna want to run the ball.

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Speaker 3: So it's like, you know, I wouldn't fade them one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent because one of them could get a touchdown.

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Speaker 3: But it's you know, it's it's not a situation I

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Speaker 3: want much of, especially since Pittsburgh is sixth in early

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Speaker 3: down rush success rate allowed on defense. So that's why

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Speaker 3: I just think it's gonna be a tough spot for Seattle.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Lat's gonna come out wanting to run, They're

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Speaker 3: not gonna be able to. They're gonna have to throw

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Speaker 3: Gino's bad under pressure. I mean Seattle's gonna if you

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Speaker 3: really think like Seattle, you want to get some totrarian lineups, yeah,

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Speaker 3: you probably go with like a Collins or a Carson

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Speaker 3: stack with the Seattle d because that's really the only

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Speaker 3: way Seattle staying in his game is like he's gonna

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Speaker 3: have to come up with a play, you know, just

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Speaker 3: rut Roethlisberger and things like that.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean Chris Carson was leaning on you know,

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Speaker 1: touchdown product production earlier in the season because he wasn't

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Speaker 1: really seeing yardage. He definitely wasn't seeing any passing game.

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Speaker 1: You said, he had three catches for three yards over

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Speaker 1: his past three games. So I think without Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 1: like he is unplayable right now because you know, he's

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Speaker 1: not going to get those gimme Goline touchdowns like he

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Speaker 1: would with Russell Wilson under center. So that's that's why

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Speaker 1: I'm saying I'm off. And this is coming from somebody

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Speaker 1: that has Chris Carson almost every league. So if I'm

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Speaker 1: down on him, you should be too, because I feel

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Speaker 1: like I'm always bullish on him. But right now, without

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson and with Chris Carson banged up, it would

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Speaker 1: not surprise me if this is a fifty to fifty split,

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Speaker 1: and like you said, in an offense, we're really not

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Speaker 1: trying and invest in anyway.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it it.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's gonna be tough sledding, like they'll give

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Speaker 3: the ball to them both active, but that's you know,

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Speaker 3: against Pittsburgh, it's never really been like profitable to really

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Speaker 3: go with running backs against him. So and then you know,

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Speaker 3: if they if Carson does not play and you're looking

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Speaker 3: for kind of that like contrarian play, it's probably DJ

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Speaker 3: Dallas over Homer. Dallas out snapped Homer fourteen to eight.

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Speaker 3: You know, he could be like kind of a hurry

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Speaker 3: up back, So you know that's something to also watch for.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, that does it for our showdown preview. Let's

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Speaker 3: get into our props on the Fantasy Flex Week six

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Speaker 3: presented by Prize Picks. We'll do a quarterback to running

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Speaker 3: back to fever perhaps each Sean start us off.

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Speaker 2: Who do you like at quarterback?

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Speaker 1: Well? I never thought I would ever be taking a

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Speaker 1: Davis Mills over, but here we are. I'm going with

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Speaker 1: Davis Mills over one hundred and eighty five and a

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Speaker 1: half passing yards against the Colts. This is more of

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Speaker 1: a play on the number as opposed to the quarterback.

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Speaker 1: You know, last week, Mills probably had the best game

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Speaker 1: of his entire career, or what will turn out to

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Speaker 1: be the best game of his entire career. You know,

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Speaker 1: he's here for three hundred and twelve yards, three touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: and no interceptions against the Patriots, I might add, so

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Speaker 1: you know he's gonna come back down to earth this week,

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Speaker 1: but he is playing a week cult secondary. So you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm projecting closer to two hundred and ten yards here,

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Speaker 1: so which isn't much, but it's you know, we're talking

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Speaker 1: twenty five yards higher than this. So I like the over.

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Speaker 1: And you know, Tyra Taylor could be returning next week,

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Speaker 1: so that gives Davis Mills extra motivation to play well here.

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Speaker 1: This could end up being his last start of his

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Speaker 1: career for all we know. So I think that that

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Speaker 1: gives them more insight to have a good game here.

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Speaker 1: He can lean on Brandon Cooks all he wants in

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Speaker 1: this matchup. So give me the over. One hundred and

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Speaker 1: eighty five and a half passing yards for Davis Mills.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think if he has a good

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Speaker 2: game here, he probably starts the rest of the year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the motivating factor. Yeah, certainly if if he

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Speaker 1: plays well here, which I think he could against the Cults,

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Speaker 1: then that really gives him that job security because there's

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Speaker 1: no reason for them to see what they have in

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Speaker 1: Tyrod Taylor. We kind of know what we have at

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Speaker 1: this point, but who knows, Davis Mills might be the

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Speaker 1: next rookie quarterback that Tyrod Taylor. You know, let's turn

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Speaker 1: into a future Hall of Fame quarterback based off of

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Speaker 1: an injury.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just stam Tyrod and the lungs Churtch came back

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Speaker 3: and Davis Mills would just get a surprise start and

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Speaker 3: it will be history. So yeah, yeah, No, I have

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Speaker 3: him in the high two twenties as well, So I'm

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Speaker 3: way over the number.

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Speaker 2: Just cold.

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Speaker 3: Secondary is just not good this year, Like we saw

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Speaker 3: that clearly last week, and they're in a short week.

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Speaker 3: For my quarterback prop speaking to secondaries that aren't good,

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Speaker 3: I am going with Taylor. Heinicky over two hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty nine and a half passing yards against the Kansas

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Speaker 3: City Chiefs. Heinik's averaging two to seventy two at his

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Speaker 3: four starts. He's been over this number. Four out of

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Speaker 3: the five quarterbacks to face the Chiefs have been over

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Speaker 3: this number, and the one that didn't was Lamar, who

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Speaker 3: also picked up one hundred and seven rushing yards on

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Speaker 3: sixteen carries.

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Speaker 2: So you know, Heinick runs a little bit, but not

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Speaker 2: that much.

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Speaker 3: If Lamar's not running as much as he does, he

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Speaker 3: gets over the number as well.

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Speaker 2: I think. And again, this chief defense, they're just their

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Speaker 2: bottom two.

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Speaker 3: In past Dvoa and Washington's defense, especially against the pass,

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Speaker 3: has been so bad that you know, even if Tyreek

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Speaker 3: Hill doesn't play, I think Mahome still puts up a

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Speaker 3: big game throwing the football. So the totals is really

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Speaker 3: huge in this game, I think Kansas City's gonna put

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Speaker 3: up thirty plus, which means a lot of you know,

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Speaker 3: I think Gibson's gonna get his yards. But I think

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Speaker 3: at some point, and probably for a while of the

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Speaker 3: portion of the game, Washington is gonna play from behind.

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Speaker 3: So I could see a three hundred yard game easily

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Speaker 3: up for Tara Heinike. So going over two hundred and

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Speaker 3: fifty nine and a half passing yards.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously I'm with you here. We talked about him

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Speaker 1: at length on our DFS pod, and you know, he's

390
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Speaker 1: my top streaming option, my top DFS play at quarterback,

391
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Speaker 1: and like like we said, like, you know, Terry McLaurin

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Speaker 1: would not surprise me if he goes off here. I

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Speaker 1: could see Daniel Sorenson getting turned around or you know,

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Speaker 1: fall over and let Terry McLaurin buy for two eighty

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Speaker 1: hour touchdowns this week would not surprise me. So I

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Speaker 1: think that just Heinike has a super high floor and

397
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Speaker 1: ceiling this week. So love the over here as well.

398
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Speaker 3: What are your beef with poor poor Daniel Sorens And

399
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Speaker 3: I feel like this was the second bag all him out.

400
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Speaker 1: I mean his PFF grades like twenty eight or something ridiculous,

401
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 1: And if you watched the game last week, I mean

402
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Speaker 1: he let two plays go right by him. So that's

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Speaker 1: that's why I'm just saying I had a vision of

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Speaker 1: Terry mcclaurin being that guy this week that's flies right by.

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Speaker 1: So Hornston's for a couple of big games this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and he can fly by anyone. That's the thing

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Speaker 3: about right, It's you know, he got to and he's

408
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Speaker 3: in facing some tough matchups he already. You know, they

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Speaker 3: played the Bills and Tredaevius already, they played Marshaun Watamore.

410
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,159
Speaker 3: So he's had a couple of games and down games,

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Speaker 3: but this is not one of those spots.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I didn't go with the McLaren over,

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Speaker 2: but I would.

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Speaker 3: If I'm playing Heineke and like a five man prize picks,

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Speaker 3: I would love, you know, stacking Heinekee and McLaren.

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Speaker 2: I would have no qualms with that. So all right.

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Speaker 3: Next up here on the Fantasy Flex is a segment

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Speaker 3: that we call Elite Entries. It's where Sean and I

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Speaker 3: dive into the Prize Picks app and compare our player

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Speaker 3: projections to the props to build an entry. Sean, what's

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Speaker 3: your first prize picks? The lead entry beat bet.

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Speaker 1: Two Week six. I am going with Davis Mills over

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty five and a half passing yards. Now,

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Speaker 1: this might be the last time you'll ever hear me

425
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Speaker 1: taking Davis Mills over, but I think this line's too

426
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Speaker 1: good to be true. I'm projecting this coaster to two

427
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 1: ten passing yards. I mean, he just went off for

428
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Speaker 1: three hundred and twelve yards, three touchdowns, and no picks

429
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 1: against the Patriots, So this Colt secondary is going to

430
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,400
Speaker 1: be a cakewalk as opposed to last week. I think

431
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Speaker 1: he's going to be able to lean on Brandon Cooks

432
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 1: heavily in this game, so I think he has a

433
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Speaker 1: pretty high floor and he's a good bet to go

434
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 1: over two hundred yards. So give me the over one

435
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty five and a half passing yards for

436
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 1: Davis Mills this week.

437
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm in the tea twenties with Mills as well,

438
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:31,119
Speaker 3: so I like that one. For my first best bet

439
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 3: for week six, I'm going Washington quarterback Taylor Heinike over

440
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty nine and a half passing yards

441
00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 3: the Chiefs. I've given up this number in four out

442
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 3: of five games. The only one they did it was

443
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,280
Speaker 3: Lamar who shredded him for over one hundred on the ground,

444
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 3: and they are thirty first in DVOA against the pass.

445
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 3: Who is your second best bet, Sean for Week six?

446
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 1: So my second pick is TJ. Hawkins seems to go

447
00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: under fifty two and a half receiving yards against the Bengals,

448
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,200
Speaker 1: and I actually like TJ. Howkinson and fancy this week.

449
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 1: He's my tight end four. But this, however, this line's

450
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,879
Speaker 1: just too high. It's about seven to eight yards too high.

451
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 1: You know, defenses have been putting extra attention on TJ. Hawkinson.

452
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 1: He's arguably the best weapon in Lion's passing game. He's

453
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 1: been playing through a knee injury, so he's you know,

454
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 1: he's playing less than one hundred percent, so that could

455
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 1: be kind of why he's been struggling of late. But

456
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 1: you know, they've been able to lean on rookie I'm

457
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: on Ross Saint Brown heavily, and even you know, pass

458
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 1: catching back DeAndre Swift. So I think that they can

459
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 1: lean on newse two again this week at the expense

460
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,680
Speaker 1: of TJ. Howkinson. Again, I still think Hawkinson's a great

461
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 1: playing fantasy, but I'm projecting this culture to forty four

462
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 1: forty five receiving yards. So give me the under fifty

463
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 1: two and a half receiving yards for TJ.

464
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 3: Howkinson, and I'll close it up going with Aaron Jones

465
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 3: under twenty eight and a half receiving yards. His median

466
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 3: receiving yardage this season has been fourteen yards. He's been

467
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,880
Speaker 3: at twenty six or we were receiving yards in sixty

468
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,360
Speaker 3: three percent of his game dating back for the start

469
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,120
Speaker 3: of last year, Chicago's top eight and the adjusted receiving.

470
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 2: Yards allowed to back.

471
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:11,880
Speaker 3: So Aaron Jones under twenty eight and a half receiving yards.

472
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 3: That's our Prize Picks Elite entry for today. As a recap,

473
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 3: going with Davis Mills over one hundred and eighty five

474
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 3: and a half passing yards, Haro Heinike over two hundred

475
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 3: and fifty nine and a half passing yards, DJ Hockinson

476
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 3: under fifty two and a half receiving yards and Aaron

477
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 3: Jones under twenty eight and a half receiving yards.

478
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 2: As a reminder, Prize Picks.

479
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 3: Markets do move, so you want to get on that

480
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 3: quickly in order to lock in the best numbers. If

481
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 3: you haven't created a Prize Picks account yet, check out

482
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 3: the link in our episode description. They'll match your first

483
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 3: DEPOSITI up two one hundred dollars, or you can visit

484
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 3: prize picks dot com and use the promo code Action ten.

485
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,680
Speaker 3: That's act Ion one zero.

486
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,199
Speaker 2: All right, now back to the fantasy lest where are

487
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,160
Speaker 2: you going for your first running back pick?

488
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 1: So? I'm going to stick in that Chiefs football team

489
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 1: game and I'm going over forty six and a half

490
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 1: rushing yards For Daryl Williams, I think he should inherit

491
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 1: pretty much the entire Clyde Edwards Hilaire workload, and Edwards

492
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 1: Hilaire has averaged fifteen carries a game weeks went through

493
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,120
Speaker 1: four and that was with Darryl Williams mixing him quite

494
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: a bit. I don't even expect Jack McKinnon to get

495
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 1: as big of a workload that Darrel Williams had, So

496
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 1: I'm projecting Darrel Williams closer to fourteen fifteen carries here,

497
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: and just with a average carry of four yards, you

498
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 1: can pretty easy crew this numbers. I'm projecting him closer

499
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 1: to fifty three fifty five something like Tyreek Hill being

500
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 1: ruled out, they may lean on the run a little

501
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: bit more. And again we're not really asking for much

502
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,479
Speaker 1: here with the yard is projection of forty six and

503
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: a half here, So I just think Darrel Williams he

504
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 1: has too high of a floor to pass this up.

505
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 1: So give me give me the over here.

506
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm him at thirteen and a half for fifty one,

507
00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 3: so I am a little lower to you, but still

508
00:23:59,720 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 3: over the.

509
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: Number by about a carry carry.

510
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 1: It might be close, like he probably won't rush for

511
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 1: one hundred yards, but yeah, we're not surprised me if

512
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 1: he ends up in the fifties.

513
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's uh, you know, it's it's basically

514
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 3: those two guys. And you know, you know McKinnon has

515
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 3: not really played much as a rusher. He's been in

516
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 3: the game in the past game, so you know, I

517
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: wouldn't bet that William's over receiving necessarily, we can scheme

518
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 3: up you know, plays obviously, but uh, and then they

519
00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 3: just signed Derrick Gore to the active rosters, so you know,

520
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 3: got to project him for a half carry.

521
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: Pretty much a fullback, right, I mean he's.

522
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I think he'll play half back just because

523
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 3: like reading between the TV, reading the tea.

524
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 2: Leaves, you know, edwards, the ware goes on, I are

525
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 2: they signed Gored.

526
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: They already got Michael Burton there, so I mean, we

527
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 3: can continue talking about fifth string running backs, but let's

528
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 3: move on. I like the over two is my point.

529
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,199
Speaker 3: I'm pretre I'm projecting him over. I will go for

530
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 3: my first with your man, your guy Nick Chubb over

531
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 3: eighty five and a half rushing yards. Again, I told

532
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: you his yards for car he is rising in my

533
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 3: model and just looking at what's going on in this

534
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 3: Cleveland Arizona game. And I could be dead wrong on this,

535
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 3: but I like Cleveland in this spot. I just think

536
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 3: what I'm seeing from Arizona here, I'm a little concerned.

537
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,360
Speaker 3: For one, Kyler Murray has like this mysterious shoulder injury.

538
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 3: He could be fine, but remember what happened last year

539
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 3: when he had a mysterious shoulder injury. We saw it coming.

540
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 3: The plate dropped off, just like it did last week

541
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 3: against San Francisco, and he went through like a couple

542
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 3: of games of a rough patch here. So I like

543
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 3: Cleveland in this spot, and because of that, I like Chuck.

544
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 3: And then you have these what it looks like to

545
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 3: be fifteen plus mile per hour wins in this game

546
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 3: that favors the run game. We've seen Cleveland play a

547
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,679
Speaker 3: couple of these win games last year, and you know

548
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 3: they barely threw the football because they barely throw the

549
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 3: football as it is.

550
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: And you have Arizona. I mean talk about five yard

551
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 2: per carry.

552
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 3: Arizona is allowing five point one yards per carry to

553
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 3: running back. So all in on a smash by here

554
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 3: for Nick Chubb, who's got over this number and three

555
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 3: of his five so far.

556
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: Obviously I'm in agreement here. Whenever you're on the over

557
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 1: on Nick Chubb, I'm interested. And like I said on

558
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 1: Monday or Tuesday, my yards per carry projection for him

559
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: this week was five point three. I actually had to

560
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: adjust it over the past couple of days. It's actually

561
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 1: up to five point three five, So I like it

562
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 1: even more. And it's surprising to see if you look

563
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: at next gen stats, he's only seen a stack box

564
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: twenty percent of the time this year, which doesn't make

565
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 1: any sense to me. I would just think that whenever

566
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 1: he's on the field, you'd stack the box. So that's

567
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,640
Speaker 1: that's something to keep an eye on. Why that is.

568
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 1: But he's benefiting a time. You know, his yard per

569
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 1: carry is five point eight this year. You know, just

570
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: maximum efficiency all around with him. So if if cream

571
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: Hunt is banged up or limit anyway, you know, he's

572
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: just going to sail over this number. So give me

573
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 1: the over here as well.

574
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's just a product with the stack boxes.

575
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 3: More of the schemes they face. I know they face

576
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,919
Speaker 3: the Chiefs who like to play two safeties deep. They

577
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 3: played the Chargers who like to play two safeties deep.

578
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 3: That's probably it was probably going to do with that

579
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 3: than anything else.

580
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, typically he's gonna see thirty to thirty five percent,

581
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: I would say stack boxes. So WinCE president of his

582
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: yards per carry goes down from five point eight, but

583
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 1: not too much.

584
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we are seeing you know what it is.

585
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 3: We're just seeing that resurgence of the two deep coverages

586
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 3: now you know, and if I used it, that's all

587
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 3: Cover two.

588
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 2: Yeah.

589
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 3: So they played like three of the biggest Cover two teams,

590
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 3: so you know it will tick down a whittle. But again,

591
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 3: Arizona has been giving up five over five yards of carry,

592
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 3: so yeah, either way, you know, stack of box and

593
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:36,919
Speaker 3: not chubbed can run right through you.

594
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 2: Who you got for your second runner back prop?

595
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: So I'm going with another Darryl prop and that's Darryl

596
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 1: Henderson under two and a half receptions against the Giants. Now,

597
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 1: this this line is probably in line with what, you know,

598
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: what we typically expect from Dryl Henderson, but I think

599
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 1: this game script where the Rams are ten point favorites,

600
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 1: will make it more. We see Daryl Huntererson get maybe

601
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: like twenty carries this game, and you know, he probably

602
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: won't see as much work in the passing game. And

603
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: you know, six of his targets this season have come

604
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 1: when the Rams are trailing by three or more points,

605
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,719
Speaker 1: and that's just on forty nine dropbacks on the season,

606
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 1: whereas he's only seen five targets when they're leading by

607
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 1: three or more and that's on sixty seven drop backs.

608
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,360
Speaker 1: So we've seen, you know, when the Rams have a lead,

609
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: they don't really increase Henderson's usage in the passing game.

610
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 1: It actually goes down. So I just think based on

611
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 1: this game script, I'm projecting him closer to two receptions.

612
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 1: And as always in these markets, especially a two and

613
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 1: a half reception prop a half reception is massive, So

614
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: I love the under here.

615
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've at two point four, so I'm right under.

616
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 3: But again, the median for that is still going to

617
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 3: be two. It's not going to be three. Yeah, So yep, yeah,

618
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 3: I'm under two. And you know last week Henderson got

619
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 3: sixty one percent of the routes to Michelle's thirty nine percent.

620
00:28:56,920 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 2: That there was a lot of routes for running backs

621
00:28:58,480 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 2: in that game. They essentially didn't block.

622
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 3: At all of usually you know, you'll see them block

623
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 3: about fifteen percent of the time. So I have Henderson's

624
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: routes you know, in the high fifties, which you know

625
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 3: that's it's not a good scenario for him to get

626
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 3: to three receptions, essentially because the Rams like to throw

627
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 3: it down field. They're like, you know, if we can

628
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 3: get it to Cupp and Woods and Jefferson Jackson and Higbee,

629
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 3: we don't. We don't need to tow the back, you know,

630
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 3: whether he's running a route or not. So yeah, I

631
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 3: think he goes over this definitely, like fifty five six.

632
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 3: I mean under this fifty five sixty percent of the time.

633
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 1: All right.

634
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 3: For my second running back prop, I'm going Aaron Jones.

635
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 3: Speaking of running backs in the past game, Aaron Jones

636
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 3: under twenty eight and a half receiving yards. This number

637
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 3: just struck me as a little high. I know we

638
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 3: talked about earlier in the week. You mentioned that Matt

639
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 3: Lafleur wants to get aj Dillon Moore involved. Aaron Jones

640
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 3: median this season is only fourteen of receiving yards. He's

641
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: had twenty six receiving yards or less in twelve of

642
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 3: his nineteen games since the start of last season, that's

643
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 3: sixty three percent. And remember especially you know, so I

644
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 3: like it down to you know, even twenty six to five.

645
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 3: But remember on prize picks, if you can get to

646
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 3: twenty eight and a half, you're essentially getting it at

647
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 3: even money there, So I really like it there. Chicago

648
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 3: is allowing the eighth fewest schedule adjusted receiving yards per

649
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 3: game to opposing running backs according to Football Outside, It's

650
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 3: just thirty four adjusted yards to backs out of the backfield.

651
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously I like this, Papazzola. You actually stole it

652
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 1: from me in our outline to do it.

653
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 2: I had our outline filled out, like last night at

654
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 2: eight pm. You just you just really pulled not to

655
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 2: look at it.

656
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, the early bird got the Aaron Jones underworm in

657
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 1: this case. But so I'm in agreement. And even like

658
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 1: if you watched the game last week, the very first

659
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,239
Speaker 1: play of the game, they had Kylon Hill line up

660
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: at running back and they threw a design screen pass

661
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 1: for him, and then we didn't see for him again,

662
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: which is bizarre. But I could see him as the

663
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 1: season goes on, being more involved in the past the

664
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: game as well. I think Aaron Jones. He's still a

665
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: top ten running back this week of fantasy. He's going

666
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 1: to dominate the RUSSI attempts this week, but certainly when

667
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: it comes to receiving arts, he's seen a much lower

668
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 1: floor week two weeks. So, yeah, twenty eight and a

669
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 1: half is way too high. I'd project this closer to

670
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: like twenty three and a half. So quite a bit

671
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: of value here as well. Yeah, yeah, I'm in a

672
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 1: low twenty forum as well.

673
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 3: Don't expect them to get to four catches either, for

674
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 3: what that's worth. Where are you going for your first

675
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 3: receiving proplem?

676
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: I'm going with Ceedee Lamb to go under seventy five

677
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. They play the Patriots this week,

678
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: and you know, as we always talk about, Bill Belichick

679
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 1: always does a really good job of trying to take

680
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 1: away the opposing team's best player. I think in this

681
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: matchup that is Ceedee Lamb. And you know, if you've

682
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 1: been watching some of the Cowboys games lately, Amari Cooper

683
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 1: is definitely less than one hundred percent. He's been more

684
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: of a decoy lately, So I think Bill Belichick can

685
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: see that, and he knows that he has to stop

686
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb at all costs. And you know, I wouldn't

687
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 1: be surprised if they lean on Zeke and Pollard and

688
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 1: Dalton Schultz again this week. It's been working well for them,

689
00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 1: So it could come at the expense of Ceedee Lamb

690
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 1: having a monster game. Obviously. You know Ceedelan is one

691
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: of the best receivers in the game. But I'm projecting him,

692
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: you know, Colose forerd to sixty six sixty seven and

693
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 1: a half yards for his medium this week. So so

694
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: I like the under here.

695
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have it under sixty five. This is not

696
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,239
Speaker 3: a big passing game for Dak. I haven't projected only

697
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 3: about two seventy. So even though Davis Mills went off,

698
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 3: if you watch that game against the Patriots with Davis Mills,

699
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 3: he just had a couple of crazy brows that the received,

700
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 3: like that Chris Moore play looked like the Stefan didn't

701
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 3: walk off like it was cruised. It was nuts, Like

702
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 3: he just cruised the sideline and just bounced.

703
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: That had to be infuriating. He had the You had

704
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: the under.

705
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 2: Like twenty and a half, right, I know I had

706
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 2: the under for the game. Yeah, yeah, so.

707
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: Low and I still liked it, But yeah, that was

708
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: infuriating to see Davis Mills have the best game of

709
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: his career last week, Like that's gonna go down as

710
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 1: his best game of all time.

711
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: If you're saying that, and I don't.

712
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 3: Maybe it's because I have no respect for the Colts,

713
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 3: but I could see him. I could see him lighting

714
00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 3: up to coach this week. I might have to get

715
00:32:58,840 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 3: some money line.

716
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: I don't think you'll beat last week's game, and I'm

717
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 1: not expecting Davis Mills to be NFL starter for too

718
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: much longer. You know my quote there.

719
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I know, I you know, I was at

720
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 3: the Dodger game during the Monday set, like the you know,

721
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 3: last half of Monday night football. But I saw a

722
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 3: certain quarterback that people used to think couldn't throw, just

723
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 3: light up the coach for about four hundred yards and

724
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 3: fifteen minutes. So I wouldn't put it past them, is

725
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 3: what I'm saying. Like, don't write them off yet, but no, Yeah,

726
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 3: I have this projected in the in the mid low

727
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 3: sixties for Ceedee Lamb.

728
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 2: This is again just because same thing for Cooper.

729
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 3: Just not expecting a huge passing day for Dallas and

730
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 3: this is also one of those trap spots like five

731
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 3: and oh, team you know, going again, going to Foxborough

732
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 3: against the team everyone thinks they should beat.

733
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 2: The line is kind of chilling around three and a half. Oh,

734
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 2: it's one of those trap.

735
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 3: Game spots where I could see a little bit of

736
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,520
Speaker 3: a clunker from Dallas here for my.

737
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 2: First receiver prop.

738
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 3: If you're gonna go with the stud receiver under, I'll

739
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 3: match you with DJ Moore Under eighty two and a

740
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 3: half receiving yards. He's actually still even with the great

741
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 3: season he's having, he's still under this number in three

742
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 3: out of his five games this year. Minnesota is allowing

743
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 3: tied for the third fewest schedule adjusted targets and eighth

744
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:24,320
Speaker 3: fewest schedule adjusted yards per game to opposing number one receivers,

745
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 3: just five point nine targets for fifty four yards schedule

746
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,399
Speaker 3: adjusted for number one wide receivers. That scheme is starting

747
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 3: to come together for Mike Zimra a little bit. And

748
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 3: I just think this number is too high because look

749
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 3: at Sam Donald and he started off with some cake

750
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 3: matchups and then they had an extended garbage time against

751
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 3: the Dallas Cowboys. But Minnesota is number two in pressure

752
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 3: rate this year, and Donald has been really bad under pressure.

753
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 3: He's one touchdown of four picks. The yards per attempt

754
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 3: is down, the rating is down, and he also has

755
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 3: taken ten sacks on seventy seven dropbacks under pressure. So

756
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 3: I just think it's going to be a tough game

757
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 3: for Darnold's and I think he's gonna be a little

758
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 3: bit gunshy too, because you know, five interceptions the last

759
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:12,880
Speaker 3: couple of weeks, I just don't know if they can

760
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 3: get He's going to get the ball out high volume

761
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 3: to where this is going to be like a DJ

762
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 3: Moore blow up spot. So playing on the number here.

763
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,320
Speaker 3: Obviously DJ Moore is still a top ten Fantasy receiver,

764
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 3: but this is one of those weeks where I feel

765
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 3: like decent, you know, kind of going underweight on him

766
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 3: in terms of DFS roster ship, and I'm going underund

767
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 3: the prop at eighty two and a half.

768
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm projecting this closer sevent nine and a half.

769
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 1: It's always hard going against DJ Moore just based on

770
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: how good he is, but you know, last week he

771
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 1: was being shadowed by Darius Slay the entire game, I believe,

772
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 1: But I think going forward, we we should expect more

773
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 1: from Robbie Anderson. I know we keep saying, you know,

774
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 1: he's gonna break out soon. He is seeing the targets,

775
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 1: he's singing the air yards, so him having a blow

776
00:35:56,000 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: up game here would certainly negatively correlate with more's. I

777
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 1: even think Terrence Marshall, I keep saying it, he's going

778
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: to break out soon. So I think once those two

779
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 1: guys step up, I think we're gonna be lowering our

780
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: productions for DJ Moore going forward. So I like kind

781
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 1: of getting ahead of that trend here. But he's he's

782
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 1: tough to go against. I agree with like DJ Moore

783
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 1: and see Lamb. It seems like we're being risky here,

784
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 1: but it's it's about the number we're projecting him, you know,

785
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: to go under this more times than not. So it's

786
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: it's it's more about going against the number than the

787
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 1: player in these cases.

788
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, when he's already done it three out

789
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 3: of five times under it, and he's had a great season,

790
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 3: so you know that.

791
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,760
Speaker 1: And that's where Darnold has thrown for over three hundreds

792
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,280
Speaker 1: three times in five games, which you know we can't

793
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 1: bank on going forward. I don't think anyway.

794
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 3: I was trying to bank on it last week, and

795
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 3: then yeah, how about Christian McCaffrey potentially being out with

796
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 3: that possibly bump up your projection for more or is

797
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 3: this kind of already baked in you? This is already

798
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,960
Speaker 3: baked in I actually, you know, like this is like

799
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 3: I think I think Donald is just.

800
00:36:58,480 --> 00:36:59,760
Speaker 2: Gonna struggle a little more.

801
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 3: McCaffrey out period, but yeah, with more, it's just kind

802
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 3: of you know, once you're getting into the eighties, Like,

803
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 3: that's just a tough prop.

804
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 2: That's even like even you've mentioned this, even Tyreek Hill,

805
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 2: that's a tough job.

806
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 3: You know, like you've played that out one hundred times

807
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,400
Speaker 3: a thousand times. It's well, tyreek Kill is different. He

808
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 3: either puts up you know, forty yards or one hundred

809
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 3: and ninety. Yeah, whereas DJ Moore is a little bit

810
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 3: more consistent. But yeah, anything over eighty is pretty hard

811
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 3: for even elite receivers.

812
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: To maintain as a median.

813
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,439
Speaker 3: Anyway, Absolutely, all right, I was close it up. Who

814
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,879
Speaker 3: is your second receiving prop for Week six?

815
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 1: So my second prop is TJ. Hawkinson under forty two

816
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards against the Bengals. We already

817
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:43,760
Speaker 1: talked about this during our DFS pod, but this seems

818
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 1: like seven to eight yards too high. Defenses have been

819
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 1: putting more resources into stopping Hawkinson. You know, he's probably

820
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 1: their best weapon right now outside of DeAndre Swift obviously,

821
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 1: but Hawkinson's also been playing through a knee injury, so

822
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 1: he's less than one hundred, so it's it's been easier

823
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 1: for teams to slow him down, and goth has been

824
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 1: leaning on rookie I'm on run Saint Brown a lot

825
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 1: more in the past couple of games. I could see

826
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 1: that trend continuing. Certainly he loves dumping it off to

827
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 1: DeAndre Swift and even Jamal Williams. So you know, even

828
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:19,879
Speaker 1: though I'm projecting hawkinson to go under this by quite

829
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 1: a bit, He's still my tight end four this week,

830
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,280
Speaker 1: and that has to do with you know, Kyle Pitts

831
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:29,919
Speaker 1: and George Kittle is on ir end dealing with by week,

832
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 1: so it's it's a bit thinn a tight end. So

833
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 1: Hawkins still my tight end four, but this is still

834
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 1: too high of a projection for him right now. His

835
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 1: median would be closer about forty three and a half

836
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 1: forty four and a half yards this week.

837
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him, I have him in the high forty.

838
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 3: So I have him like just under this by a hair,

839
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 3: you know, I think, I think this is a this

840
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 3: is a spot the lines might actually be frisky here.

841
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 3: So but I yeah, I agree, I think. You know,

842
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 3: the number is still a little bit high. Like even

843
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 3: my mean projection for Hackinson is so slightly under the

844
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 3: fifty two and a half.

845
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 2: So I like the number.

846
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 3: I'm sure it'll be bet down a little bit in surprise,

847
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 3: I would. I wouldn't be surprised if it closes under

848
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 3: fifty this week. All right, for my final receiving prop,

849
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 3: I'm going with ll Viscus Channault under fifty two and

850
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:18,919
Speaker 3: a half receiving yards. He's been under this in three

851
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 3: out of five games this year, and he's only been

852
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 3: over this in five of his nineteen career games. And

853
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 3: he didn't always have this big of a role, But

854
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 3: that's kind of the point. His role hasn't been as

855
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 3: consistent as we thought, especially with DJ chark out. His

856
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 3: routes run per dropback chanalts. Let me say again, so

857
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 3: with DJ chark out, well, Viscous Channault's routes run per

858
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 3: dropback actually hit a season low last week. So he

859
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 3: was between seventy nine and eighty one percent each of

860
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 3: the first four weeks.

861
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:53,880
Speaker 2: Last week sixty one percent.

862
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 3: Now, maybe if there was like some weird things going

863
00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:00,399
Speaker 3: on with the game script, you'd say, okay. But Jamal Agnew, yes,

864
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 3: scat Jamal Agnew, the former cornerback you know, slash return

865
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 3: specialists played more snaps sixty eight percent on pass plays

866
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 3: than did Chanall. And then Tavon Austin, who played seventy

867
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 3: five percent two weeks ago, still played fifty percent. So

868
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 3: Chanal was barely holding off tave On Austin for the

869
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 3: wide receiver four role last week.

870
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 2: Now, could he jump back up? I'm guessing you will.

871
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 3: I still haven't projected closer to this season average, which

872
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 3: is seventy six percent of routes run per drop back,

873
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,240
Speaker 3: but that still leaves them short of this number because Miami,

874
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,240
Speaker 3: you know, outside of that, they came into that Tampa

875
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 3: Bay game. I think they were number two in early

876
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 3: down success rate against a pass on defense. Tampa Bay

877
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 3: is gonna skew all of your defensive statistics, So I'm

878
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 3: not I'm not holding it against them that you know,

879
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 3: they gave up infinite amount of yards and touchdowns to

880
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 3: all the Tampa receivers. I still don't think we can

881
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 3: trust Chanaal in this spot. So I have this media

882
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 3: in about you know, seventy eight yards lower that I

883
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 3: have him closer to forty five for a media and

884
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,359
Speaker 3: then than this number which is fifty two and a half.

885
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, same here, And this is more of a bet

886
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 1: against urban Meyer than it is against Chanalt because, like

887
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 1: you said, they're for some bizarre reason they're using these

888
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,360
Speaker 1: wanna be Percy Harvin type players like Tevon Austin and

889
00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 1: Jamal Agnew when they already have like the best version

890
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 1: of the Percy Harvin type prospect in Leviska Chanalt. So

891
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 1: maybe Irvan Meyer we've said he usually gets things wrong

892
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 1: and then fixes it later on, maybe he does figure

893
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 1: out that Chanalt should be playing over ninety percent of

894
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,360
Speaker 1: the time every week, But right now he is certainly

895
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 1: a fade given his underlying usage. So I'm with you here,

896
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: I'm projecting the media and yeah, closer to forty four

897
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 1: and a half forty five and a half receiver arns

898
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 1: until we see otherwise.

899
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean also probably has something to do.

900
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence just hasn't been able to connect with him.

901
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 3: Just a catch rate of sixty four point five compared

902
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 3: to seventy three point four last year. You know, chanalls

903
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 3: being asked to run a route a little further downfield,

904
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 3: not much. The a dot went from six point two

905
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 3: to seven. So it's not like a major increase in

906
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 3: the downfield work. But it just seems like Trevor Lawrence,

907
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 3: you aren't on the same page yet.

908
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 1: Yeah. So, I mean those ancillary receivers are obviously eating

909
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 1: into it. But even Dan Arnold, like especially in the

910
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 1: area of the field, just how much he played and

911
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 1: how much he was targeted. That's certainly leading into this

912
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: as well. So that's something I do think is going

913
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 1: to be sticky. I think Dan Arnold will absolutely be

914
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 1: the number two, number three target going forward in this offense.

915
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 1: So that might be the real reason why we're probably

916
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 1: low on Chaneult this week.

917
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:33,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, can't go wrong being low on Jaguars

918
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 3: not named James Robinson.

919
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty much how I'm looking at this at this point.

920
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 3: But all right, to recap four week six, Sean has

921
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 3: Davis Mills over one hundred and eighty five and a

922
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 3: half passing yards, Darryl Williams over forty six and a

923
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 3: half rushing yards, Darryl Henderson under two and a half receptions,

924
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 3: CEEDE Wham under seventy five and a half receiving yards,

925
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 3: and TJ. Hockinson under fifty two and a half receiving yards.

926
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 3: I'm going sayor Heinike over two hundred and fifty nine

927
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 3: and a half passing yards, Nick Chubb over eighty five

928
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 3: and a half rushing, Aaron Jones under twenty eight and

929
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 3: a half receiving, DJ Moore under eighty two and a

930
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 3: half receiving, and Laviska Channel Junior under fifty two and

931
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 3: a half receiving.

932
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 2: That is going to do it for our Week.

933
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 3: Six Fantasy TWX propspod presented by Prize Picks. Make sure

934
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 3: you follow Sean Kerner on Twitter at the Underscore Odds

935
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 3: Maker and me on Twitter at Chris Raybon. You can

936
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,439
Speaker 3: find us at those same handles in the Action Network app.

937
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 3: Be sure to check out Action network dot com for

938
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 3: the app for our fantasy rankings and projections, and Fantasy

939
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 3: Labs dot com for our DFS tools and content. Until

940
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 3: next week let's get this twenty