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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go throwing spect I'm sitting it to cash touch.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 2: You want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, and this is the special Sunday. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this is the one. To me, It's not the one

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Speaker 2: after the super Bowl. It's the one after the conference

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Speaker 2: championship when you have the matchup and you can dive

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Speaker 2: into one game. This is this is what it's all about.

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Speaker 2: But I am here for our recap episode. I'm Evan Abrams,

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Speaker 2: the host, and I'm here as always with Brandon Anderson,

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Speaker 2: the one and only Brandon. First of all, let's just

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Speaker 2: get right into this because I'm pretty energetic right now.

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Speaker 2: I feel like coming off the game we exactly expected,

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Speaker 2: coming off the Buffalo Baltimore game last week, this is great.

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Speaker 2: I'm just I can't wait to dig because I've already

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Speaker 2: done the Philly Casey thing. So to me, I was

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Speaker 2: going into today being like Yeah, Buffalo would be an

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Speaker 2: awesome story, and I think from a narrative point of view,

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Speaker 2: it was what everyone outside of Kansas City, unless you

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Speaker 2: had money on it, probably was looking for. But just

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Speaker 2: off the bat here we can even just dive into this.

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Speaker 2: So Casey wins the game thirty two twenty nine. Casey

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Speaker 2: closed minus one and a half forty nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: The total goes way way over. But Brandon start us

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Speaker 2: up first of all, what's up? And let us roll?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, man Bill's Chiefs. What can you ask

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Speaker 4: for better than that? That is the best rivalry in

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Speaker 4: football right now. We said that's what we expected going in.

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Speaker 4: We thought it'd be close. We thought it would be

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Speaker 4: back and the forth. We thought we'd get scores in

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Speaker 4: the fourth quarter from both teams. We got everything. We

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Speaker 4: got Alan Mahomes. I guess though, to start out in

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Speaker 4: the first half, we got not really Allen and Mahomes, right.

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Speaker 4: We got Josh Allen looking like old Josh Allen, real

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Speaker 4: sloppy early on first two passes of the game, very

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Speaker 4: interception worthy, both dropped by the same dude on the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs read later on he has a fumble.

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Speaker 3: He had three.

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Speaker 4: Turnover worthy of plays in the first quarter. He only

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Speaker 4: had a one game all season with three turnaver worthy

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Speaker 4: of plays. He only had fifteen plays like that all season.

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Speaker 4: It's very weird. Like Josh Allen, the story for his

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Speaker 4: career before this year has alice been well, he can

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Speaker 4: make the really big play, but he makes too many mistakes.

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Speaker 4: You get the ups and the downs, the roller coaster,

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Speaker 4: and I think what made him what I thought the

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Speaker 4: MVP of this year was no more roller coaster. We

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Speaker 4: got rid of the downs and we just did all

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Speaker 4: the good Josh Allen stuff. Man, he looked very, very

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Speaker 4: shaky early on. So first half, Chiefs go nine plays

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Speaker 4: ninety yards for a touchdown. Later they go eleven for

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Speaker 4: seventy touchdown. I thought they'd chew up the middle of

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Speaker 4: the field, and that's just what they were doing. Like

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Speaker 4: I was wrong on Travis Kelcey. They used him as

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Speaker 4: a decoy out wide a lot more, but they'd get

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Speaker 4: guys going out to the side and they were just

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Speaker 4: hitting anybody and everybody over the middle. Buffalo's defense no

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Speaker 4: answers series conversion rate. So that means every time you

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Speaker 4: start on a first and ten, did you get another

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Speaker 4: first down in the first half. I believe the Chiefs

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Speaker 4: were nineteen of twenty. The one stop Buffalo got was

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Speaker 4: the Patrick Mahomes turnover, which was a really big play,

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Speaker 4: a little bit like Lamara Lamar Jackson esque. I was

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Speaker 4: noting just in case the Chiefs blew it, but we had.

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Speaker 4: Mahomes had that big fumble early. Allen ends up with

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Speaker 4: three fumbles, recover all of them, but three fumbles that

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Speaker 4: kind of like took.

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Speaker 3: A big loss on a play.

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Speaker 4: Look like Chiefs were gonna get twenty one to ten,

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Speaker 4: then get the ball out of halftime, and it was like, oh, warning, warning,

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Speaker 4: Chiefs are gonna run away with us. No, the Chiefs

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Speaker 4: are never running away with this game. This game was

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Speaker 4: always coming down to the end. Alan drops in the

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Speaker 4: bucket to maccollins. It's twenty one sixteen at the half,

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Speaker 4: and that's the point where it's like, Okay, that shouldn't

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Speaker 4: have happened. Now we are buckling up for another classic.

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Speaker 4: That's kind of where I'm at at halftime. What are

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Speaker 4: you thinking as it goes to half.

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Speaker 2: The game starts with a Buffalo three and out, and

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Speaker 2: at that point I'm saying to myself because I know

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Speaker 2: entering the game, I was like, Buffalo has to start

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Speaker 2: fast in this one. So I saw that one and

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Speaker 2: then Casey goes nine plays for ninety yards, and I

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Speaker 2: was like, oh boy, you know, but I also, you know,

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Speaker 2: obviously we've talked. You and I are in the same

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Speaker 2: position every week kind of recapping these games right away,

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Speaker 2: and you know, when we saw Denver score on the

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Speaker 2: first drive against Buffalo and then the game didn't matter

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Speaker 2: after that, Like obviously, you know, the way games start

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Speaker 2: can be different depending on and you assumed with Buffalo

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Speaker 2: and Kansas City it was going to be close the

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Speaker 2: entire time. I guess my notes here and this was

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Speaker 2: a first half note but also a full game note,

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Speaker 2: which was Buffalo even got lucky in this one. There

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Speaker 2: was at least five or six turnover worthy plays, and

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Speaker 2: you mentioned the fumbles, but I think there was a

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Speaker 2: ray day this fumble as well, Like they were fumbling

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Speaker 2: and recovering, which is pure luck all across the board

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Speaker 2: in that sense. And also I mean Kansas City lost

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Speaker 2: the turnover battle and ends up winning the game, which

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Speaker 2: is a very Kansas City thing to do, based off

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Speaker 2: of their profile and kind of discussion we've had up

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Speaker 2: to this point. I think the other first half note

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Speaker 2: would be, and if you've watched Kansas City week to week,

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Speaker 2: it's something everyone's noticed. Issavi're Worthy is just so important

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Speaker 2: to the explosiveness of their offense because at least four receptions,

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Speaker 2: four targets in their first three drives. You're gonna say, well,

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Speaker 2: that's not a ton, but to me, it's getting their

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Speaker 2: offense going, like they're going to run the ball a lot.

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Speaker 2: They were going to try to get it to Kelsey,

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Speaker 2: which didn't end up happening to really the fourth quarter

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Speaker 2: and not really at all, so they end up winning

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Speaker 2: the game without using Kelsey. I believe you got his

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Speaker 2: second reception with like five minutes ago in the game.

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Speaker 2: So I think just the way we were seeing the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs offense matriculate down the field a little bit differently,

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Speaker 2: and I know the run game was there. That's to

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Speaker 2: me how what stood out from the first half more

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Speaker 2: than anything, but the Worthy thing, I think is an

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Speaker 2: X factor in the Super Bowl that is going to

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Speaker 2: change the way they have to game plan against Kansas City,

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Speaker 2: which I think will be interesting.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I tweeted this out. The Chiefs finished the game

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Speaker 4: fifty six percent success rate, offensively for the game. That's

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Speaker 4: a ninety six percentile. Buffalo's defense got destroyed in this game.

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Speaker 4: Kansas City just kept moving the chains. They had a

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Speaker 4: forty three percent first down rate that's a play turns

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Speaker 4: into a first down or touchdown, ninety nine percent tile

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Speaker 4: if you turn that to just pass plays, because they

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Speaker 4: could not run the ball at all, that is sixty

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Speaker 4: eight percent success rate on pass plays, so thirty six

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Speaker 4: pass plays more than two thirds of the time, they

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Speaker 4: were successful what they're trying to do. And frankly, it

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Speaker 4: felt like that, it felt like that watching the game,

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Speaker 4: that Mahome was just kind of doing whatever he wanted

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Speaker 4: to do. Ninety ninth percent of success on pass plays,

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Speaker 4: one hundredth percentile first down on pass plays fifty nine percent.

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Speaker 4: That they just kept moving the chains. There, So we

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Speaker 4: go the second half. I thought to me, the story,

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Speaker 4: the story the first half was sloppy quarterback play and

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Speaker 4: some kind of weird turnover worthy type plays. Story the

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Speaker 4: second half had to be Josh Allen quarterback sneaks. And

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Speaker 4: it's a very weird thing where in my notes I

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Speaker 4: have Josh Allen turned into Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 4: turned into Josh Allen, so Mahomes runs in for two

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Speaker 4: touchdowns first time in his career. We get a ten

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Speaker 4: yard touchdown run late and the two point conversion to

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Speaker 4: retake the lead. They never gave up the lead again.

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Speaker 4: Josh Allen. The quarterback sneak did not work for them.

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Speaker 4: I don't know what Buffalo was doing. They keep going

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Speaker 4: back to it very clearly. You could hear on the

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Speaker 4: broadcast as well. Chiefs have scouted they're going left, They're

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Speaker 4: going left guard off of this one every time, and Alan,

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Speaker 4: we kind of paused, go left and get stuffed over

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Speaker 4: and over? How many times are the goal? And I

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Speaker 4: know because I had the Josh Allen anytime touchdown, we

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Speaker 4: certainly had our chances. I thought we might get the

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Speaker 4: Jalen Hurts game here with the three touchdowns. We'll get

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Speaker 4: to that later. But they get stopped over and over.

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Speaker 4: They get stopped on the two point conversion. So don't forget.

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Speaker 4: Buffalo went for two two point conversions. I thought the

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Speaker 4: correct decision, but very shody play calling on them. That's

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Speaker 4: two points. They probably could have used those. In a

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Speaker 4: three point game, you're playing for a field goal down

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Speaker 4: the stretch rather than a touchdown would have been a

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Speaker 4: huge difference. Then, of course, the huge play that inevitably

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Speaker 4: is going to get talked about fourth down early fourth quarter,

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Speaker 4: that Bills went for fourth down six times in this game.

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Speaker 4: They go for the fourth down. Frankly, I have no

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Speaker 4: idea if he made it or not. One official says yes,

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Speaker 4: one official says no. They spot the ball, they change

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Speaker 4: the spot.

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Speaker 3: They review it.

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Speaker 4: You're never changing the review like that is a call

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Speaker 4: in the field Stowns play every.

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Speaker 3: Day of the week. To me, it's fifty to fifty.

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Speaker 4: Look, you earn't home, You're gonna get the fifty to

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Speaker 4: fifty call. Like that's what home field does for you.

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Speaker 4: Statistically speaking, that's what home Field tends to do. Kansaity's

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Speaker 4: defense stop three quarterback sneaks in this game from next

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Speaker 4: Gen stats. That's the most in their entire era since

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Speaker 4: twenty sixteen tracking. And don't forget they're now going to

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Speaker 4: play Jalen Hurts and the Tush push. So I thought

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Speaker 4: it was very interesting that the Chiefs stop the sneaks.

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Speaker 4: I don't think the sneaks and all those Josh Allen

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Speaker 4: designed runs like when I say he turned into Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 4: That is not a compliment. I do not like all

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Speaker 4: the Jalen Hurts designed runs. And meanwhile Mahomes scrambling, Mahomes

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Speaker 4: creating with his legs. That's when I say he turned

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Speaker 4: into Josh Allen. That's a compliment. That's what Alan had

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Speaker 4: been doing so well. I thought, to me, Allen was

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Speaker 4: probably mostly good enough in this game.

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Speaker 3: I thought those coaches let them down.

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Speaker 4: I thought Joe Brady had a horrendous game calling in

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Speaker 4: the red zone and on short yardage, just so many

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Speaker 4: blown opportunities. And to me, that for ultimately is the

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Speaker 4: story of the game. Is the Bills failing on short

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Speaker 4: yardage and in the red zone.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Josh. I mean, if you're gonna ask

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Speaker 2: my opinion, I think Josh Allen got it. I think

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Speaker 2: he was probably over the line, but it was too

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Speaker 2: close to call, and they made the call in the field.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's just so so damned Chiefs to have

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Speaker 2: one of the refs be on one side of the

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Speaker 2: line and one of the refs on the edd of

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Speaker 2: this side of the line. I wanted them to come

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Speaker 2: out with the index cards like that. That was really

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Speaker 2: what was the only thing that was missing at that moment.

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Speaker 2: So obviously I think we're going to point to that

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Speaker 2: in a lot of the post game, especially when the

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Speaker 2: game is so close throughout. I think he got it.

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Speaker 2: It ends up being you know, pretty important at that

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Speaker 2: point based off what happens later. But I'll just say this,

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Speaker 2: so looking at that even before when you go after that,

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Speaker 2: So the third and goal for Buffalo, so it's twenty

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Speaker 2: nine to twenty two, Mahomes has you know, comes down

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Speaker 2: the field, rushes for the touchdown, gets the two point conversion.

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Speaker 2: To me, Buffalo's third and goal. I hated the play

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Speaker 2: call when they went to Coleman and he struck struck

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Speaker 2: it out. There was just it's either that of the fade.

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Speaker 2: It's just it was terrible. And then the fourth down

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Speaker 2: comes and I say to myself, well, this is it,

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Speaker 2: Like you have to get this right. Love the past

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Speaker 2: to Samuel is very creative. Back at the end zone

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Speaker 2: motion in the backfield, and I saw your tweets and

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Speaker 2: I understand putting their best players in the backfield. We

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Speaker 2: can talk about that in a second, but at least

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Speaker 2: on that play it ended up working out. And I

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Speaker 2: believe that was a second fourth and goal touchdown of

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Speaker 2: the game for Buffalo, So you know, getting lucky on

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Speaker 2: the bounces, but also not exactly, not exactly converting in

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Speaker 2: the red zone on early downs, right, Like a lot

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Speaker 2: of this was you know, fail fail fail magic, which

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Speaker 2: I guess Mahomes does as well, but to lose the game,

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Speaker 2: win the turnover battle, and I didn't even looked did

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Speaker 2: they win did they win the penalty battle at the

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Speaker 2: end in this one, because I saw they were winning. Uh,

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Speaker 2: let's see. No, I mean they they had six penalties

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Speaker 2: for forty eight. It's Casey only five for twenty one.

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Speaker 2: So penalties ended up being bad for Buffalo in that one.

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Speaker 2: But either way, I just feel like, and you said

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Speaker 2: it as well, opportunities are going to be the exact

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Speaker 2: thing you point to, especially with some of the bounces

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Speaker 2: they had the thing that was funny to me and

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Speaker 2: then I'll toss it back to you, which when it

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Speaker 2: becomes twenty nine to twenty nine and there's six fifteen

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Speaker 2: to go, and you ask yourself, Okay, Casey's getting the

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Speaker 2: ball again, and everyone's like, all right, is is Alan

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Speaker 2: going to touch the ball ever again? At this point?

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Speaker 2: And the funny thing is is he does get the ball,

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Speaker 2: and I believe there's how much time is left at

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Speaker 2: that point, there's like three minutes left, So they do

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Speaker 2: a really good job their defense. Yeah, take it from there,

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Speaker 2: Like what do you think at that point when the

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Speaker 2: defense makes the stop?

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Speaker 4: Right, so the Chiefs are just get the ball back.

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Speaker 4: It's a tie game after they finally get a touchdown.

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Speaker 4: You're right, great play by Josh Allen to get the

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Speaker 4: fourth down conversion. They're really big, sneaky you play it.

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Speaker 4: I had and I know it's just like bolden, make

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Speaker 4: sure we got this ended up. Not really mattering. Jordan

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Speaker 4: Phillips gets the sack first down right as the Chiefs

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Speaker 4: enter the red zone, and it was like the one

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Speaker 4: time all game that the Bills actually actively made a

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Speaker 4: play defensively to stop a Chiefs drive, and then it

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Speaker 4: put them in like second and third goal from about

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Speaker 4: the fifteen seventeen yard line.

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Speaker 3: They settled for the field goal.

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Speaker 4: I think that's got to be the right call there.

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Speaker 4: It's a tie game. You get the three or seventeen

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Speaker 4: yards out of the end zone. It's the first time

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Speaker 4: all season the Chiefs have scored more than thirty points,

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Speaker 4: so I guess this was a good time to do it.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, so Buffalo gets the ball back down three

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Speaker 4: three and a half minutes left. I again thought Joe

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Speaker 4: Brady did not call a good series here.

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Speaker 3: I thought it was a really good setup for Buffalo.

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Speaker 4: Quite frankly, Kansas City's defense has to be worn down

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Speaker 4: at this point. Buffalo has been driving the ball these

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Speaker 4: long plays. They had their first drive out of the half.

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Speaker 4: I think it was like a twelve or thirteen play drive,

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Speaker 4: all but one play, run the football. Next drive, the

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Speaker 4: one they ended up turning it over, run downs, all

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Speaker 4: but one play running the football.

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Speaker 3: I was like, Okay, this is it. This is the thing.

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Speaker 4: Buffalo spent the entire season embracing its identity as a

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Speaker 4: team that could win multiple ways, including run power, run

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Speaker 4: the football, win playoff football games. This way does not

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Speaker 4: always have to be Josh. And then the very first

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Speaker 4: play they try to run with Tie for some reason.

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Speaker 4: I don't really know why they're trying to run with him.

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Speaker 4: I thought Cook was fantastic in this game, but only

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Speaker 4: have thirteen carries. I thought he was underutilized. We saw

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Speaker 4: how he was really wearing down the Chiefs the second half.

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Speaker 4: I thought it was a perfect setup. Three minutes and

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Speaker 4: a half minutes left. You've got a tire defense, the

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Speaker 4: ball is in your court. You're gonna move the chains,

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Speaker 4: get in the field goal position, and then wind the

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Speaker 4: clock down under thirty seconds if you're a Bills fan,

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Speaker 4: under thirteen seconds, and try to get a touchdown to

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Speaker 4: win if you can. But worst case scenario, get the

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Speaker 4: field goal, got overtime. See what you can do with there.

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Speaker 4: That's a pretty good scenario. If you're the Chiefs, you

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Speaker 4: would take that scenario usually because you trust Mahomes to

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Speaker 4: get the job done. And like quick, Frank, we're gonna

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Speaker 4: because QB wins and legacy and Super Bowls, we have

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Speaker 4: to do the thing. For quarterbacks, I thought Josh Allen.

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Speaker 3: Made a heck of a play on that.

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Speaker 4: The final play, the fourth down, He's got like three

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Speaker 4: dudes unmarked on him. Spags brings the most creative blitz

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Speaker 4: of the game. And then Josh Allen somehow gets a

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Speaker 4: throw off like twenty five yards downfield and hits Dalan

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Speaker 4: Kinkaid in the hands. I don't know how he got

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Speaker 4: that throw there. Dalon Kinkaid dropped the ball. So why

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Speaker 4: we didn't play as props today because the guy has

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Speaker 4: not been coming through for them, and that was that.

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Speaker 4: And then of course Mahomes makes a couple of plays

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Speaker 4: of course passes to the running backs. As we said

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Speaker 4: against Buffalo all postseason, that's the one thing they were

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Speaker 4: giving up. Kansas City obviously saw that too, and then

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Speaker 4: they run the clock out. Seventeen straight one possession wins

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Speaker 4: for the Chiefs, now and NFL record. You have to

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Speaker 4: talk about the refs when it's the Chiefs you brought

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Speaker 4: the penalties. I honestly don't think the refs were a

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Speaker 4: story like they're going to be a story because there's

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Speaker 4: always gonna be some pivotal plays. Long pass that Worthy

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Speaker 4: came down with that was maybe interception by the rookie

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Speaker 4: safety or maybe an incompletion. Again, I don't really know

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Speaker 4: what it was, but you're not gonna change the call

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Speaker 4: in the field. I thought it was kind of a

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Speaker 4: not great challenge because of that. Josh Allen for the game,

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Speaker 4: He's got the touchdown to maccollins or before the half,

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Speaker 4: incredible play, the fourth down touchdown to Samuel another great play.

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Speaker 4: The long pass to mc collins late in the game

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Speaker 4: set up another score another great play by him, that

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Speaker 4: fourth down play, even though it didn't work like Alan

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Speaker 4: made the plays and unfortunately we've been here before. We've

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Speaker 4: seen Josh Allen go head to head and make the

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Speaker 4: plays and still lose. And at some point you have

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Speaker 4: to win, so you got to actually get the win.

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Speaker 4: I don't want to be the Lamar apologist. Alan was

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Speaker 4: a good quarterback and made the good plays, but didn't

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Speaker 4: get the job done basically yards even on the game

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Speaker 4: time of possession. Even on the game I will say

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Speaker 4: on the turnover thing, Chiefs had the one turnover. The

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Speaker 4: Bills turn it over twice on downs. I think that

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Speaker 4: should count toward the turn and over margin. I do

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Speaker 4: think that part Bills were five or fourteen on third down,

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Speaker 4: so I feel like the Chiefs getting too manageable late

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Speaker 4: downs and converting was definitely a story here. But at

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Speaker 4: the end of the day, Mahomes made the plays when

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Speaker 4: he had to, just enough to get the field goal.

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Speaker 4: What I really wanted as a fan, My bats worked

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Speaker 4: out well this way for a Chiefs close win. We

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Speaker 4: got the comeback win, we got the close win, we

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Speaker 4: got the both to score fourth quarter. As a fan,

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Speaker 4: I wanted a Bill's touchdown. I wanted to see Patrick

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Speaker 4: Mahomes not down a field goal, down four down, more

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Speaker 4: than a field goal with like a minute left. Let's

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Speaker 4: see what you got. Let's see you go make the

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Speaker 4: plays and win. And he probably would have, but I

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Speaker 4: wanted to see it happen. I felt like we got

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Speaker 4: a little tiny bit robbed of a classic ending. You know,

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Speaker 4: I would have loved to see a little more from

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Speaker 4: Josh Allen and the Bills on the final drive.

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Speaker 3: But it was fun.

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Speaker 2: I'll say, I'll just say, I'll push back on one thing.

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Speaker 2: This was not Patrick Mahomes' moment, Like this was Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen's moment. So like there were in the sense that

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Speaker 2: we got the drive was thirty two twenty nine and

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Speaker 2: you had Alan with the ball with two minutes left,

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Speaker 2: and you're like, this is it? Like you have the

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Speaker 2: guy you're chasing is on the other sideline going for

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Speaker 2: absolute effing history like this is you could literally silence

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Speaker 2: the world. So I kind of agree that Mahomes getting

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Speaker 2: the ball in that situation would have been kind of fun.

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Speaker 2: And depending on how Buffalo drives the field, how much

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Speaker 2: time would be left would would be you know, probably

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Speaker 2: pretty climactic, But the moment for Josh Allen, the moment

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Speaker 2: for Josh Allen was there.

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Speaker 4: You're right, though, what I really really wanted, was Josh

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Speaker 4: Allen like inside the thirty with shots at the end zone.

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Speaker 3: Sure, I wanted that drive.

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Speaker 4: To get thirty yards further is I think what I

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Speaker 4: really wanted and then maybe to convert and maybe to

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Speaker 4: see give the Chiefs thirteen seconds, be you need a

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Speaker 4: touchdown this time, like just a little more torture in there.

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Speaker 4: But you're right, I think I think we were robbed of.

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Speaker 4: Like again, I thought the play calling by the Bills.

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Speaker 4: They had a third and ten right before the fourth

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Speaker 4: down to end the game, and they threw like a

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Speaker 4: hot read, a hot Reid screen to you know, Amari Cooper,

401
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Speaker 4: like one yard down the field, which clearly was okay,

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Speaker 4: we're going from fourth down, let's get a manageable fourth

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Speaker 4: and five.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, man, at that.

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Speaker 4: Stage of the Gameless season on the line, I'm taking

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Speaker 4: two shots past the sticks, like I want. I want

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Speaker 4: my quarterback to not just immediately get rid of the ball.

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Speaker 4: I want Josh to have two shots at this I

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Speaker 4: don't want a Marik Cooper taking one shot at this

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Speaker 4: I'm giving.

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Speaker 3: Josh all the bullets I have left.

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Speaker 4: So I think, to me as a fan, it felt

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Speaker 4: just a little bit like I didn't get to see

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Speaker 4: Josh like empty everything he had. It felt like he

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Speaker 4: got neutered a little bit by just oh, let's run

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Speaker 4: again up the middle, let's have you know, let's do

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Speaker 4: the screen, let's run the ball, hand it off here.

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Speaker 4: It's like, I want to see Josh get the shot

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Speaker 4: to go beat Pat. And I'm not many excuses. He

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Speaker 4: had a shot, but it didn't feel like we got

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Speaker 4: quite the climactic finish at the very end that I

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Speaker 4: was hoping for.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but in the end, I do say the two

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Speaker 2: turnover on downs plus the box score crediting them with

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Speaker 2: five fumble recoveries, I mean, it's a lot of opportunities there,

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Speaker 2: come and gone. A few stats that kind of just

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Speaker 2: you know, I was looking at the turnover battle. You

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Speaker 2: do make a really good point about the turnover on downs.

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Speaker 2: But I'm going to say this that anyway, So Casey

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Speaker 2: twenty five and nineteen straight up fifty seven percent when

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Speaker 2: losing the turnover battle. Since twenty eighteen, rest of the

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Speaker 2: league at twenty two percent, second best on the list

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Speaker 2: actually is Buffalo at forty one percent. So having a

434
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:46,199
Speaker 2: good quarterback to overcome it obviously very important. And this

435
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,639
Speaker 2: is absurd, so this is from the AP, but mahomes one,

436
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 2: he's down one to eight points fourth quarter or overtime

437
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 2: of a playoff game. Now five touchdowns, no interceptions plus

438
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 2: the touchdown run one hundred and thirty two quarterback rating,

439
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,119
Speaker 2: So trailing one to eight fourth quarter rot of a

440
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 2: playoff game, literally when you need it the most, Chiefs

441
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 2: scoring on thirteen of those fourteen drives in that stat.

442
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 2: We could talk about Casey and Philadelphia obviously when we

443
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 2: get there, because I have some fun trends and notes

444
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 2: and stuff like that we can kind of prep the matchup.

445
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 2: But anything else Buffalo Kansas City before we move on.

446
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 2: I mean, I feel like we got the game we

447
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 2: kind of wanted here. It over also ends up hitting here,

448
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 2: ends up hitting in the other games. So favorites and

449
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 2: overs go to and zero in both of these games.

450
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 2: So kind of a fun wild day. I mean, fifty

451
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 2: five points from Philly we'll talk about in a second,

452
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 2: all right, So Philly does end up winning the game

453
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 2: fifty five twenty three fifty five double nickels crazy, they

454
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 2: cover his six point, they cover his six point. Favorites

455
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 2: total soars over the forty seven and a half. I mean,

456
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 2: Philly goes over the total themselves by almost eight points.

457
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the final score or says a

458
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 2: little bit about the game. I mean, it got really

459
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 2: out of hand later due to circumstances that almost had

460
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,160
Speaker 2: nothing to do with Jayden Daniels, which I do think

461
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 2: is also a part of what I hope people will

462
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 2: remember about this game, at least from my opinion. But

463
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 2: I mean the way it started eighteen plays from Washington's

464
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,159
Speaker 2: point of view, just absolutely kind of the crazy. There

465
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 2: is the longest first drive in the playoffs last twenty years,

466
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 2: of any game, so it just I think the longest

467
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 2: was seventeen plays prior to that, so I believe it

468
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 2: was five third downs on the first drive, two fourth downs,

469
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 2: and obviously they end up getting the field goal, which

470
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: at that point I'm sitting with a few people watching

471
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 2: the game. It's eighteen plays. I've sent out my tweet

472
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,719
Speaker 2: with my stat and they get the field goal, and

473
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 2: you say to yourself, Okay, this could be it. If

474
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,679
Speaker 2: this is you know how you end up with this

475
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 2: drive and you don't get the full touchdown, and you

476
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 2: don't you're an underdog in this situation. Felt a little deflating,

477
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 2: but you could just start there. I mean, crazy first

478
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 2: drive and then obviously the first play from Saquon.

479
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the crazy thing about that drive is

480
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 4: it feels very impressive for Washington to like chew up

481
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 4: half of the quarter before phil even touches the ball.

482
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 4: The reality is Philadelphia's defense played well on that drive.

483
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 4: Philadelphia kept putting him in third and five, third and seven, third.

484
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 3: And five again.

485
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 4: Basically what we saw in this game is Washington ran

486
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 4: hot on fourth downs all season long. They've run hot

487
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 4: on fourth downs in the playoffs. They were four to

488
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 4: six in this game. Still, I believe, but you can't

489
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 4: hit every fourth down, and at some point when you

490
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 4: either don't go for one or don't convert one of them,

491
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 4: the best teams are going to punish you for that. Yeah,

492
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 4: I felt like not going for that fourth down a

493
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 4: fourth and two, I believe in the red zone at

494
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 4: the end of that drive, like you can't come away

495
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 4: with three, And then I guess maybe you know the

496
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 4: folks who already take the points. Folks are like, yeah,

497
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,199
Speaker 4: you can't come in with zero either. You have to

498
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 4: get something out of it. You can't go eighteen plays

499
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 4: four yards and get nothing. Well, we've seen the Commanders

500
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 4: time and Timmy, we saw them just last week get

501
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 4: stuffed by the Lions the one seed and then get

502
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 4: the ball back and then get the touchdown right after that.

503
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 4: Like three plus three is less than seven. So I'd

504
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 4: rather have multiple chances to get a touchdown than get

505
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 4: the field goals. So the very next play after this

506
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 4: long drive, we're setting the tone where we got the ball,

507
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 4: and the Eagles get the ball. One play handed off

508
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 4: Sequin Berkeley, touchdown sixty yards and I'm like, oh, this

509
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 4: thing is over now. It wasn't over, but then it

510
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 4: was over again. A few plays later, Washington like four

511
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 4: plays later, fumbles the ball, so.

512
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 3: We get a short field.

513
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 4: Now it's fourteen to three, and I'm like, Okay, now

514
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 4: it's really over. Because the Eagles are such good front runner.

515
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,479
Speaker 4: There's gonna run the football down your throat. You got

516
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 4: the rookie quarterback on the road.

517
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:50,719
Speaker 3: That's that.

518
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 4: We get to halftime. It's twenty seven to fifteen. The

519
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 4: Eagles kind of give up a free field goal near

520
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 4: the end of the half.

521
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 3: Washington if he misses.

522
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,680
Speaker 4: A field goal, Philadelphia makes an extra point, but gets

523
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 4: a shot to go for two. The right decision, but

524
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 4: they mess up the two point conversion, so they kind

525
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 4: of gave away eight points in.

526
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 3: The first half.

527
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 4: I'm sitting here thinking, Okakay, like you said, I thought

528
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 4: Jane Daniels is pretty good in this game. I thought

529
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,160
Speaker 4: Jane Daniels was up to the moment. I thought he Frankly,

530
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 4: all four quarterbacks were good enough today. They all did

531
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 4: what they needed to do today. But two of them

532
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 4: had teams that came through for them and two of

533
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 4: them did not. And look, quarterbacks still gonna get the

534
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 4: win and the lost. They're gonna get all the story.

535
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 4: But I thought Daniels is really good. So I'm like, Okay,

536
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 4: where do we go after the half? Either A, Washington's

537
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 4: playing pretty well and the score line's not really that

538
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 4: indicative of the way this game was gone. We just

539
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,640
Speaker 4: had a couple of Washington turnovers, fumbles, just some bad

540
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:51,239
Speaker 4: luck stuff. Maybe that stuff evens out, or b what

541
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 4: if Washington doesn't get one or two of these fourth

542
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 4: downs and now Philly gets the ball in a short

543
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 4: field and now they running down their throat. What if

544
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 4: we go that direction? And then it turns out, holy cow,

545
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 4: did we go that direction? Because the Eagles end up

546
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 4: scoring a touchdown on effectively eight of their eleven drives,

547
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 4: not counting neils. They ran thirty six times for two

548
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty nine yards and seven touchdowns. Seven touchdowns is

549
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 4: a record. Washington on the other side on the run

550
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 4: side of that one as well, seventy three to nothing

551
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 4: for the nineteen forty NFL Championship. That's how long it's

552
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 4: been since we had seven rushing touchdowns. Put differently, Philadelphia

553
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 4: had seven rushing touchdowns today.

554
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 3: The Cowboys had six all season.

555
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 4: So that's how that went for the Cowboys and the

556
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 4: Eagles this season. Sakuan somehow finishes under his rushing prop

557
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 4: He starts with a sixty yard run and then goes

558
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 4: fourteen for fifty eight from there to still go under

559
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 4: under crazy number. We get Will Shipley into the end zone.

560
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 4: I don't know, do you have the odds on a

561
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 4: Will Shipley anytime touchdown? That's got to be one of

562
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 4: the longest ones we've seen.

563
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 2: I don't have Will Shipley touchdown odds. If I had

564
00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 2: to guess, I'm gonna say twenty two to one. It's

565
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 2: a complete guess, But I will say the one note

566
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 2: on a play in this game that needs credit is

567
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 2: Treussway's pass. What a great fake punt from the Washington

568
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 2: thirty one as well. I mean that took some balls

569
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 2: to not even like make the call there, but at

570
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 2: certain points I was trying to give them credit, and

571
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 2: I think Quinn did some good things. Daniels did some

572
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 2: great things. I do think it's funny that they had

573
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,240
Speaker 2: three fumbles in the game and lost them all, and

574
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 2: then you saw the Buffalo game and what happened there,

575
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 2: and I just I think Buffalo gets lucky in some

576
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 2: of those circumstances because fumble luck is just that. But

577
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 2: Washington losing all three of those fumbles kind of you know,

578
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 2: with four turnovers makes makes the final score look the

579
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 2: way it was. It was also interesting having the conversation

580
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 2: around Saquon Barkley all week, how certain defenses had been

581
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 2: able to bottle him up in a majority of his carries,

582
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 2: and then having other carries have such explosion to them

583
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 2: where he you know, it was kind of inflating his

584
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 2: final yards. In that sense, I just feel like every

585
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 2: game we're having those one or two runs now. Obviously,

586
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 2: I think in this one there was some mistackles from

587
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 2: Washington that made it a little egregious, But I do

588
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 2: think his explosion is going to happen even you know,

589
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 2: against Kansas City and the Super Bowl. I think you're

590
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 2: going to see some of that. But it's on the defenders,

591
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 2: especially the corners and safeties to tackle downfield because you know,

592
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 2: making it fifteen to twenty yards versus the fifty five

593
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: sixty in touchdowns I do think ends up being the

594
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 2: difference in a big game like the Super Bowl. So

595
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 2: that would definitely be one of my notes there. The

596
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 2: other thing, Frankieluvu was an absolute monster. He was wrecking

597
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 2: Havoc on Jalen Hurts the entire game every time, and

598
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 2: even forgetting jumping the center four times on the touch push.

599
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 2: He was wrecking Havoc the entire game. I feel like

600
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 2: they were doing some very creative blitzes with him. He

601
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 2: was getting it hurts his face on a lot of

602
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 2: key third downs. So I just wanted to do the

603
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 2: credit there, But I do have to think and I

604
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 2: kind of want your take on this. Between mcnichols's fumble

605
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 2: Dynamic Brown's fumble, I just feel like Washington's outcome in

606
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,959
Speaker 2: this game could have went many other ways, considering it

607
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 2: really wasn't the quarterback that threw the game away at all.

608
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree.

609
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 4: I felt like even at halftime, like Philadelphia was leading

610
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 4: comfortably and end up winning quite comfortably, it never really

611
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 4: felt like that much of a domination by Philadelphia, And

612
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 4: I don't know what to make of that, because, on

613
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 4: the one hand, if you're good enough to in the

614
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 4: conference championship win comfortably even when you didn't play your

615
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 4: A plus game, that's a pretty good team to be

616
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 4: able to do that. On the other hand, is that

617
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 4: a sign going forward? We've seen now? Really, I don't

618
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 4: think the Eagles have played that great of football in

619
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 4: any of their three playoff games from what they should

620
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 4: be doing, and we saw that a little bit down

621
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 4: the stretch from them as well. Obviously Hurts was hurt

622
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 4: down this stretch, but at some point do you have

623
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 4: to take something away from that? And looking ahead to

624
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 4: the super Bowl, the Eagles had one of the softest

625
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 4: schedules the entire season, and frankly got a pretty soft

626
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 4: schedule in the NFC playoffs here by the matchups that

627
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 4: they drew, by the teams I came.

628
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 3: Up against them.

629
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 4: Now, look, it's not their fault. The only can be

630
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 4: the teams in front of you. But if you're only

631
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 4: barely beating the teams in front of you that weren't

632
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 4: the top caliber, And look, they didn't barely win this

633
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 4: game twenty one zher in the fourth quarter flattered them

634
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 4: on the final score line. But I think that's where

635
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 4: I don't know the answer here. My instinct is I

636
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 4: have to be a little leery of an Eagles team

637
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 4: that I'm still not really positive can pass. I still

638
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 4: haven't really seen play in a negative script or play

639
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 4: from behind, because again, immediately here they get out ahead.

640
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 4: What if they don't do that, Like we don't know

641
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 4: if either of these teams the Super Bowl can play

642
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,479
Speaker 4: from behind. That's crazy about Mahomes, But they don't have

643
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 4: the explosives. What if they're down ten fourteen points like

644
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 4: the Reds or sorry, like the Commanders were today. Could

645
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 4: they come back and make it a little bit closer

646
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 4: like Washington did. Probably because it's Mahomes and it's Andy Reid.

647
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 4: But we haven't really seen them do that sort of

648
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 4: thing either, So I think it makes it very interesting

649
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 4: going into the Super Bowl. From that perspective. I had

650
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 4: the Frankielu who note as well. For really the only

651
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 4: drama on the second half for me was understanding this

652
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 4: NFL rule. So Frankielu who is like, we're got the

653
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 4: push push on the two yard line trying to get

654
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 4: a touchdown. I think we're in like the third quarter

655
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,840
Speaker 4: or something, and he jumps over the line like.

656
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 3: Clearly that was the plan.

657
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 4: We're gonna have Frankielu who try to grab the snap

658
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 4: count and just come and jump over the line and

659
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 4: hit him Like you said, he's just going crazy this

660
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 4: whole game. And we get three straight off sides to

661
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 4: the point that like on one of them, hurts barely

662
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 4: even takes the snap. He got like side steps and

663
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 4: just like slaps lu who on his way down because

664
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 4: you know it's coming. Apparently there is a penalty available

665
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 4: to NFL referees for palpably unfair act. This is a

666
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 4: thing that we have now, Like this is Zeno's defense.

667
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 4: Basically for Washington. You can only give up so many

668
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 4: half distance to the goals. They're going to half and

669
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 4: half and half closer, you're never scoring a touchdown. Apparently

670
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 4: that's not true. Apparently the referees can just decide as

671
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 4: a judgment call to award a touchdown to the other

672
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 4: team if they feel like.

673
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 3: That's where we're headed with something which quite frankly, to all.

674
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 4: The people that think the Chiefs only win because of

675
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 4: the refs, the refs would have given the Chiefs a

676
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,239
Speaker 4: touchdown a few times by now, if you're really right

677
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 4: about that thing. So, I know, I thought the lou

678
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 4: Whu's Zeno's paradox defense thing, like, I've never heard of

679
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 4: anything like that, that the refs can just award a touchdown.

680
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 3: What happens for anytime touchdown.

681
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 4: Bets who gets credit for the touchdown if they score there,

682
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 4: they give it to Hurts on the rushing touchdown, Like,

683
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 4: I have so many questions about this. To me, that

684
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 4: was like the only thing interesting in the second half really,

685
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 4: as Eagles start to really pull away from that.

686
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Hurts and Barkley both end up with

687
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 2: three touchdowns I believe, and they end up giving one

688
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 2: to Shipley to get to seven. I mean, my opinion

689
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 2: on the whole game in general, kind of wrapping it

690
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 2: up before we talk to them talk about the matchup

691
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 2: in a few minutes. I think Philly is a little

692
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 2: bit difficult to read because again I don't think we

693
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 2: know and I'm going to look this up throughout the

694
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 2: next two weeks, but I'm curious about Sirianni's play calling

695
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: when we talk about trailing, because Barkley's been such a

696
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 2: big proponent of everything they're doing that I feel like

697
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 2: it's easy to give them those carries to make sure

698
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 2: he does get that explosive run or two during a game,

699
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 2: and when you're down, I think it puts pressure on you,

700
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 2: so I do feel more comfortable. This is just my

701
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 2: opinion with Kansas City, I think than I do with

702
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 2: Philadelphia in a trailing game script, but definitely stuff to

703
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 2: look into there. I did find it interesting that Philly

704
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 2: obviously fifty five points most ever in a conference championship game,

705
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 2: and teams who have these explosive, you know, outings in

706
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 2: points wise conference championship tend not to do great in

707
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. I think only one of like the

708
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 2: top five or six have actually won the game. And

709
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 2: even if you look top three, which Philly put up

710
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 2: fifty five. Buffalo back in the nineties put up fifty one,

711
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:26,280
Speaker 2: Carolina put up forty nine. They both lost the Super Bowl,

712
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 2: so probably means nothing. But I do find it interesting

713
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: that this explosive offense is kind of like one and

714
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 2: four one in five after the big game. So that

715
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 2: was kind of the way I looked at it. From

716
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 2: Washington and Philly, I think there's a lot of ways

717
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 2: to examine both Goddard, who had a massive day, and

718
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 2: Ertz on the other side massive days for its tight

719
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 2: ends in this game. Kelsey does nothing in the KC game,

720
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 2: so I think trying to project to Super Bowl, and

721
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 2: I saw Barkley's rushing total was about one oh nine

722
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,280
Speaker 2: one ten. Now I saw one fourteen and a half

723
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 2: against the Chiefs, So before we even get into this

724
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 2: matchup here, any thoughts on any of those.

725
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,919
Speaker 4: One other note I had on the Philly Washington game

726
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 4: was closing that out. Philly only finished one hundred yards higher,

727
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 4: which is still plenty, Like that's significante hundred and nine yards,

728
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 4: but in a game with this big of a margin,

729
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 4: you think it's higher. Difference is seven yards of play

730
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 4: to four and a half yards of play, which is

731
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 4: a massive difference play by play, and Washington turned it

732
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 4: over again. If we're counting turnover on downs, Washington turnover

733
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 4: six times, not four times, and then Philadelphia seven of

734
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 4: seven in the red zone. So yeah, six turnovers on

735
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,719
Speaker 4: one side, seven of seven red zone on the other side.

736
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:41,919
Speaker 4: That's gonna inflate the score line and make you look

737
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:45,240
Speaker 4: pretty good. I had a note about the big scoring

738
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 4: teams kind of letting down after that as well, Saquon,

739
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 4: I mean, man, the rushing line is so high, like

740
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 4: that was what I wanted.

741
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 3: Here is like, okay, I think Philadelphia should.

742
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,879
Speaker 4: Run all over this team. I'm pretty mad about though.

743
00:35:57,880 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 4: We had the whole Hurts injury. I guess we comment

744
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 4: on that, well, we didn't know what he looked like.

745
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 4: I'm not really positive we got a clear answer to that.

746
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 4: Like I thought he looked fine. I don't think we

747
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 4: ever really noticed something that didn't look good. But I

748
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 4: also don't know that we really saw him stressed in

749
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 4: a way to find out, like they're playing from ahead,

750
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 4: playing in the right script the whole time. So obviously,

751
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 4: now two more weeks to get healthier, probably should be

752
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 4: fine and not really a storing the Super Bowl as

753
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 4: good as he looked today and credit where it's due

754
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 4: to Hurts made some big throws, got to aj Brown

755
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 4: who had a big, big day like we expected. So

756
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 4: like that Hurts came through what he needed to do today.

757
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 4: But I do think looking ahead, the Eagles have been

758
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 4: a really good team on early downs. The Chiefs defense

759
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 4: thrives on third down their top five DVA, and that's

760
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,359
Speaker 4: when Spagnolo is going to bring the heat, mix it up,

761
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:48,879
Speaker 4: get things confused. I think a really key look at

762
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl is, like you said, how do the

763
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:55,359
Speaker 4: Eagles do on those early downs, and do they stay

764
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 4: ahead where they can give it to Saquon and keep

765
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 4: feeding him and set up for that explosive or can

766
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 4: the Chiefs get them to a third and long, Because

767
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,280
Speaker 4: now it's advantaged Spagnolo and now it's disadvantage Jalen Hurts.

768
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 4: Because I think, basically, to me, the story of the

769
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, and I tweeted this out even before we

770
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 4: got the game tonight was going to be superior roster

771
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 4: or superior quarterback. The AFC team is going to have

772
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 4: the quarterback that everybody wants, either Mahomes or Allen, But

773
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 4: the Eagles have the better roster. They've got the running

774
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 4: back and the star receivers. They've got the star blocking.

775
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 4: Although when you keep an eye on all those injuries

776
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 4: we saw to both centers in this game for Philadelphia,

777
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:37,879
Speaker 4: and then you have the number one defense, So it's

778
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 4: pretty easy if you have the best weapons and the

779
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 4: best line and the best defense. If you just had,

780
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,959
Speaker 4: like if you swapped quarterbacks, this line for this game

781
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 4: would be outrageous, Like it would not be anywhere near

782
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 4: mins one and a half. It would be like, oh,

783
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 4: why are we even watching this game? This is a

784
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 4: preseason game. That's how big of a difference it is.

785
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 4: So I can't end up playing like a Saquon over

786
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 4: one hundred and something rushing yards. If anything, I'm end

787
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 4: up maybe doing like a longest rushing escalator. Give me

788
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:08,439
Speaker 4: like a forty or fifty yard run and that's why

789
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 4: he got the high total. Or give me like a

790
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 4: two hundred plus game or something like that. To me,

791
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,800
Speaker 4: that's how I'd attack that. To just play a median

792
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 4: outcome of well, you know, this game might being like

793
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty five or something. One hundred and

794
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 4: ten for Super Bowl is just too high of an

795
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 4: outcome like if it I'm an over better on props generally,

796
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 4: and that to me screams under just because there's so

797
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 4: many ways.

798
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 3: To get there.

799
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,720
Speaker 4: Today, as an easy example, sixty yards on the first

800
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 4: touch and then still goes under because they kind of

801
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 4: bottle them up for the most part after that. So

802
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,320
Speaker 4: I do have a couple of props when I'm playing

803
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 4: for the hot read and one I'm giving out. But

804
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 4: should we get into some of the matchup stuff on

805
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 4: Chiefs Eagles, then.

806
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do it. You can start, and you know,

807
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 2: I have a few trends to kind of set up

808
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 2: the matchup. I think we should also talk about Saquon

809
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 2: for a little while the anytime touchdown odds and I

810
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 2: had a fun note here, But you can set us

811
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 2: up so Philly, Casey, if you look right now, spread

812
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 2: is one and a half for Kansas City. Still it's

813
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 2: about minus one thirty on the money line. I did

814
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 2: see some forty eight and a halfs and some fifty

815
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 2: and a halfs right now, I'm looking at forty nine

816
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 2: and a half, So that seems like where it's settled.

817
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 2: Casey minus one thirty, Philly about plus one ten.

818
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I guess just from the top here, I'll

819
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 4: just say this, my hot read tonight is not a

820
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,919
Speaker 4: spread pick or a total pick, in large part because

821
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 4: I don't think you need to rush to make that

822
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 4: pick right now, because I'm not really a money line player.

823
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 4: At minus one twenty, minus one thirty, I'm probably gonna

824
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:38,880
Speaker 4: find a different angle to that usually, and at minus

825
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 4: one and a half, get it to minus a half.

826
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 4: Maybe maybe if it gets past the zero to the

827
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 4: other side, maybe it gets to minus two or two

828
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 4: and a half. Every point matters, Like I'm not scoffing

829
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 4: at this, but we're not hitting three either side here

830
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 4: in all likelihood, we're not getting the field goal, and

831
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 4: so again points matter. We're seeing two point conversions, we're

832
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 4: seeing teams come down here to the end of things.

833
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 4: But I don't feel the need to rush a pig.

834
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 4: And same for total. It's kind of been a nozone

835
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 4: range where forty seven is a key number, fifty one

836
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 4: sometimes can be a key number for totals, keys are

837
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 4: a little bit less, so for totals we're kind of

838
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 4: stuck there.

839
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 3: I think total is more likely to move one direction.

840
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 3: I would lean under on a.

841
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 4: Total if I had to pick a side just because

842
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 4: both teams have been under teams this season. I think

843
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 4: they're both ten and seven to the under in the

844
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 4: regular season, So if you do want an under, you

845
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 4: may want to grab that in case it gets to

846
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 4: the forty seven or below. But even there, I don't know.

847
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,120
Speaker 4: That's a pretty big move. I'm not sure it going

848
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 4: to go that way. Some of the matchup stuff for me,

849
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 4: things I'm looking at. Number one. I mentioned this earlier.

850
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 4: The Chiefs were really good stopping the qb sneak today,

851
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 4: and boy, who does that matter more against then Buffalo?

852
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 4: The only team is Philadelphia, So can the Chiefs actually

853
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 4: have an answer to the Tush push because we know

854
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 4: that's going to come up. We're going to see that

855
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 4: play and the Chiefs stop them with their run defense.

856
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 4: By the season, they were seventh in rushing DVA defensively,

857
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 4: but late in the season they're kind of average, and frankly,

858
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,839
Speaker 4: I thought the run defense almost cost them the game

859
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 4: today against the Bills. That was a reason too, why

860
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 4: I was betting Ravens futures this season, because I thought

861
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 4: that the Ravens power run game was going to be

862
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 4: tough against the Chiefs. So the Eagles are not the Ravens.

863
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 4: Jalen Hurts is not Lamar Jackson. But I do think

864
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,800
Speaker 4: there is a chance that the Eagles offensive line could dominate,

865
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 4: could really control the game and be a difference there.

866
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:39,840
Speaker 4: On the flip side, Philadelphia's offense still, even including the playoffs,

867
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 4: has only faced three top twelve defenses by DVA the

868
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 4: entire season. Three the entire season because it didn't happen

869
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 4: on their division and they just had a really soft schedule.

870
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,799
Speaker 4: So we haven't believed in this offense. We have not

871
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 4: believed in Jalen Hurts and passing. We especially haven't believed

872
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:00,719
Speaker 4: in can they come back? Can they the plays if

873
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 4: they have to? And it's Patrick Mahomes, man, I think

874
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:04,800
Speaker 4: you're gonna have to make some plays.

875
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 3: And now I know.

876
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 4: We saw the Super Bowl two years ago and we

877
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 4: saw Jalen Hurts quite frankly, maybe play outplay Patrick Mahomes.

878
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 4: But this is a very different version of him two

879
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,759
Speaker 4: years later that has not play anything like that. I

880
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 4: think one thing that matters here is that, uh, Philadelphia

881
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 4: much better defending middle of the field. That's an area

882
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,360
Speaker 4: where I thought the Chiefs kind of carved up Buffalo today.

883
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 4: That's that's an area that vic Fangio's defense takes away.

884
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 4: Vic Fangio's defense been really good against tight ends so

885
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 4: far this season, so I'm not necessarily sure how strong

886
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 4: I'll be on Kelsey props. That did not go well

887
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 4: for me today. Anyways, I do think in this game,

888
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 4: Kansas City's outside receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Zivier Worthy

889
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:49,760
Speaker 4: a little bit though there using him a little bit differently,

890
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 4: those guys are gonna have to make some plays. I

891
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 4: think Vic Fangio is gonna say, you know what.

892
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 3: You've got those guys. Let's see you beat us with

893
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 3: those guys.

894
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 4: And we're gonna have Quinnon Mitchell out on the outside

895
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 4: trying to shut some of these guys down. So to me,

896
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 4: some of that stuff watching the third downs ken Kansas

897
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 4: City force the Eagles into third and long, that's some

898
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:09,360
Speaker 4: of the stuff I'll.

899
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 3: Be looking at.

900
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 4: And then if I'm being honest at the end of

901
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 4: the day, if I think it's pretty close, which you

902
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 4: can tell I pretty much do, then I'm really gonna

903
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:22,280
Speaker 4: pick not Patrick Mahomes against Jalen Hurts for the biggest

904
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 4: game of the year, going for the NFL three peat

905
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 4: the chief Pete apparently as they're deciding to try to

906
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:30,879
Speaker 4: call that nance and romo. So that's kind of where

907
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 4: I'm at right now. I would lean the Chiefs if

908
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 4: I had to make a pick right now, I probably

909
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,760
Speaker 4: look to as I do give up some of my outs,

910
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 4: maybe do a Chiefs twy six or less sort of

911
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 4: bet something that sort of thing. But that's kind of

912
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 4: where I'm at, looking at spread total matchup type stuff

913
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 4: before getting into the props. What do you see, just

914
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 4: kind of big picture on the game right now?

915
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can break down a few these notes I have.

916
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 2: So Chiefs Eagles will mark just the second time in

917
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 2: NFL history that the same teams have met in the

918
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 2: Super Bowl twice in a theory three year stretch. So

919
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 2: you had Bill's Cowboys who also did it in ninety

920
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 2: two to ninety three. It also interesting with Andy Reid

921
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 2: versus Nick Sirianni, just a fifth head coach rematch in

922
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 2: a Super Bowl all time coach that won the first

923
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:17,280
Speaker 2: meeting also won the second meeting all four prior meetings.

924
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 2: I also think this is interesting. So you try to

925
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:25,760
Speaker 2: probably make some comparisons from those two Super Bowls Eagles

926
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 2: Chiefs the last one to this one now. I think

927
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 2: trying to figure out big Fangio versus Jonathan Gannon, I

928
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:36,280
Speaker 2: think is an interesting conversation to have. I think Kansas

929
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 2: City's offensive line this year is pretty weak, and Mahomes

930
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,400
Speaker 2: tends to make it better just by his ability to

931
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 2: do some magic and kind of scramble around a little bit.

932
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 2: And sae Quon Barkley I think is one aspect of

933
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 2: that Super Bowl that wasn't there that is obviously there now.

934
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 2: I think those are probably the biggest things to pay

935
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 2: attention to. I think the resume of Fangio and what

936
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 2: he's done this year with Philly is important. I think

937
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 2: his numbers against Mahomes are interesting. I don't think they're everything.

938
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 2: I think it's interesting to see what so Fangio was

939
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 2: with the Dolphins for two meetings against Mahomes before Fango's

940
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 2: with the Broncos and had six games against Mahomes. So

941
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 2: some things he did with the cover zero with the

942
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:28,400
Speaker 2: Dolphins I think was interesting in how he blitzed Mahomes.

943
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:30,959
Speaker 2: He's strugg he made him struggle a little bit now,

944
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 2: just also as a blanketed term vic Fangio coach defenses

945
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 2: have faced Mahomes eight times, six Broncos, two Dolphins. They're

946
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 2: oh to eight, so he's never beaten Mahomes. He's two

947
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 2: and six ats. In those games, Mahomes has ten touchdowns,

948
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:51,799
Speaker 2: two interceptions, sixty four percent completion percentage. Now then eight

949
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 2: is also because it was the Dolphins. One was I believe,

950
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 2: the playoff game, and one was Overseas. It was that

951
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 2: Germany game. And then it was also the Broncos, which

952
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 2: many of those games they were nine ten point favorites.

953
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:07,960
Speaker 2: Casey kind of ran them over. I think Fangio is

954
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 2: a good coordinator. I think he's an upgrade, and I

955
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 2: think at certain points he's kind of confused Pat a

956
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 2: few times in his schemes, but overall Pat's Pat. So

957
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 2: he's eight.

958
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 4: No, Yeah, well, and I think too, like if we

959
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 4: look back kind of at the career art for Patrick Mahomes,

960
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:28,319
Speaker 4: like the early Patrick Mahomes, the one we think of

961
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 4: still if we're being honest, the guy that throws forty

962
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 4: five touchdowns and rips it downfield a Tyreek hill. That

963
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 4: version that we kind of lament being gone. That version

964
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 4: is gone mostly because of Fangio and all the other

965
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 4: Fangio type defenses that were like, Okay, you know what,

966
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 4: what if we don't let you rip it for forty

967
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 4: yards down the field pat every play, what if we

968
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,799
Speaker 4: make you earn it and do twelve and fourteen play

969
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 4: drives down the field.

970
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 3: And so that's what we see now. We see you know,

971
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 3: even like CG.

972
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 4: Stroud is a weird example this year where last year

973
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 4: ripping it down the field making big plays and then

974
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 4: defense is kind of adjust after that. You see that

975
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 4: for you and like, Okay, now let's make you kind

976
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 4: of earn it with lots of short stuff. If you

977
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 4: do ten plays, twelve plays, fourteen plays, can you not

978
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 4: make a mistake on all of those plays? Can you

979
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 4: not screw up and beat us time and again and

980
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 4: again for five yards, seven yards, ten yards? We saw

981
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 4: with Jane Daniels how hard that was today, as good

982
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 4: as he's been to not eventually make a little mistake

983
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:27,400
Speaker 4: or get to a fourth down or not convert on something.

984
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:30,680
Speaker 4: And I think that's been the genius of Josh Allen,

985
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 4: and that's been what Patrick Mahomes has done, is they've

986
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 4: switched their game from this aggressive throwing it downfield, beating

987
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 4: you're like, Okay, if defenses are given the shell, the

988
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 4: Fangio shell that that's kind of in the formula teams

989
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 4: have been playing, then how we're gonna win.

990
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 3: We're gonna win underneath.

991
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 4: And so I do think Xavier Worthy probably is gonna

992
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 4: be a really important weapon.

993
00:47:50,120 --> 00:47:51,359
Speaker 3: Again here we.

994
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 4: Saw he's just so fast, man, Like it's crazy watching

995
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,400
Speaker 4: the best one hundred percent of athletes in the world

996
00:47:57,480 --> 00:47:59,879
Speaker 4: on a field and then another dude just runs right by,

997
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 4: like right right down the side.

998
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 3: We see that with Sakuan and his speed. We see

999
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:06,120
Speaker 3: that with Zeef You're Worthy.

1000
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 4: I think Hollywood Brown if he gets some chances like

1001
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 4: getting the ball to just these speedy playmakers and saying, Okay,

1002
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 4: everything's going to be tough, Like if anything, if I

1003
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 4: could somehow bet in this game, like under enough commercial

1004
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 4: breaks and suddenly just like squeezing all the commercials into

1005
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:25,160
Speaker 4: the end, like I think we're gonna get similar to

1006
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 4: cheese bills. If the game was going quick, like right,

1007
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 4: I felt like the game was getting away from us.

1008
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:31,799
Speaker 4: It's like, oh man, it's almost halftime already. Oh it's

1009
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 4: already like eight minutes left in the fourth quarter. Because

1010
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 4: we're getting these long drives just moving the chains, and

1011
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 4: I think to me, that's what the Fangio defense is

1012
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 4: supposed to make you do, and say, Okay, for most

1013
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 4: quarterbacks in the league, you're probably gonna mess.

1014
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 3: Up at some point.

1015
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 4: Well, Patrick Mahomes, he can't mess up. We saw the

1016
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 4: fumble today. That was the biggest play of the game. Frankly,

1017
00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:56,280
Speaker 4: they had to overcome that. That was like a minus

1018
00:48:56,320 --> 00:49:00,799
Speaker 4: six EPA almost ended up nearly costing them. We would

1019
00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 4: have killed him for that had they not overcome that.

1020
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 4: That's the Lamar Jackson hidden fumble play that I always

1021
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:09,359
Speaker 4: kill Lamar Jackson for. So credit to where it needs

1022
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 4: to go to. They had to overcome that. But against

1023
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:16,839
Speaker 4: the Fangio defense, can you dink and dunk? Can you

1024
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,400
Speaker 4: slowly move down the field? And I don't think the

1025
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 4: Chiefs will be able to run the ball in this game.

1026
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 4: I don't think that's gonna go that well at all.

1027
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 4: So it's gonna have to be pat. I do think

1028
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 4: it's interesting. Can Jalen Carter and some of those Eagles

1029
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 4: gets up front, can they get pressure? Well, I don't

1030
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 4: know if Jalen Carter can because the interior of the

1031
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 4: Chiefs line is the strength. That's where I trust the Chiefs,

1032
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:41,280
Speaker 4: and outside is not as strong for the Eagles. Flip

1033
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 4: it around, what if the Eagles center is out or

1034
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:47,360
Speaker 4: injured again, what if Dickinson is playing center or what

1035
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 4: if he's out and now it's a third string center. Well,

1036
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 4: now I got Chris Jones coming up the middle. Now

1037
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:55,720
Speaker 4: that's a huge mismatch where the Eagles are so strong

1038
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:59,440
Speaker 4: offensive line, but right in the middle, where Jalen Hurts

1039
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 4: has taking the from the snap and where the toush

1040
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,560
Speaker 4: push is at, that's where the Chiefs are strongest. So

1041
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 4: I think even there where the trenches should be favored

1042
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:12,760
Speaker 4: toward Philadelphia, that the matchups in the trenches might actually

1043
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 4: come out toward Kansas City. So yeah, the Fangio defense

1044
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 4: thing is interesting that I think that's really smart to

1045
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:22,240
Speaker 4: look at just all the matchups we've had, and frankly,

1046
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 4: there are many more because there's so many other copycat

1047
00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 4: Fangio defenses as well. But I do think at the

1048
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 4: end of the day, this is what Mahomes has become.

1049
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 4: The guy that built his game to be able to

1050
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 4: beat the Fangio defense and be able to adjust and

1051
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 4: take what's available, and even today.

1052
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 3: We saw him take what's available by way of his legs.

1053
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 4: We saw him go in and make the running play,

1054
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:49,239
Speaker 4: and just kind of to transition into a prop. I

1055
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:52,359
Speaker 4: did have Patrick Mahomes over twenty eight and a half

1056
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 4: rushing yards. I think that that's interesting. Now, I'm not

1057
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:59,360
Speaker 4: giving this out as an official play because Philadelphia is

1058
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:02,720
Speaker 4: only allowed to twenty yard rusher four times the entire season,

1059
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 4: and three of those were to Jade Daniels twice and

1060
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:07,919
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson, who are always going to get their twenty yards.

1061
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:10,279
Speaker 3: Jayden didn't even do it one of the two times, so.

1062
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 4: I don't love that. Maybe the Eagles just don't allow rushing.

1063
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 4: But Mahomes has gone over twenty and a half all

1064
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 4: four Super Bowls, and we know we see in these

1065
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 4: games he's going to go make a play with his

1066
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:24,240
Speaker 4: legs if we need to, if he needs the play, So.

1067
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:26,279
Speaker 3: I do have my eye on that. I think if

1068
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 3: you want it.

1069
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 4: It probably gets beat up to like thirty one thirty two,

1070
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 4: and it's getting pretty close in that range, so if

1071
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 4: you want it, you probably get that early. That's not

1072
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 4: my official hot read pick. I've got one official prop pick.

1073
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 4: You mentioned the saquon props, what sort of prop angles

1074
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 4: you're looking at early.

1075
00:51:42,880 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 2: On looking at and I actually haven't had a chance

1076
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 2: to do this, so I might change an opinion a

1077
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 2: little bit when I do in terms of looking at

1078
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:54,000
Speaker 2: route runs, snaps and stuff like that from this game

1079
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:57,319
Speaker 2: to kind of compare over weeks. But looking at the

1080
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 2: lines quickly right now, I feel like between Noah Gray

1081
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:04,359
Speaker 2: at twelve and a half and Juju Smith Schuster at

1082
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:07,399
Speaker 2: fourteen and a half, someone is going to go over

1083
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:10,440
Speaker 2: and now. Gray I don't believe had many looks today.

1084
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 2: Juju got a bunch of looks. I think he probably

1085
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 2: him and Hollywood Brown seemed like they got a lot

1086
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 2: of snaps and kind of routes out there, a lot

1087
00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:22,880
Speaker 2: of ones that probably previous weeks were going to Hopkins.

1088
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:26,239
Speaker 2: I think Hopkins is and Raybon had talked about this,

1089
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:28,560
Speaker 2: and I like Juju to I think I picked him

1090
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 2: as our dart throw in terms of a touchdown in

1091
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,279
Speaker 2: this game today because he was out snapping Hopkins and

1092
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 2: it looks like it was happening again. So it almost

1093
00:52:36,880 --> 00:52:39,120
Speaker 2: feels like fourteen and a half there, especially in a

1094
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 2: super Bowl where Mahomes kind of trusts him in previous years,

1095
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:46,360
Speaker 2: which was kind of my reasoning initially. So fourteen and

1096
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 2: a half there feels like a good line. The Hollywood

1097
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 2: line at forty and a half feels a little inflated

1098
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:55,759
Speaker 2: based off of how much run he got today, So

1099
00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:58,759
Speaker 2: I think that's why I would prefer the Juju line.

1100
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:01,279
Speaker 2: The one thing I'll say is this, in terms of

1101
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:05,760
Speaker 2: just storylines, the Eagles haven't played away from Lincoln Financial

1102
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 2: since week sixteen, December twenty second against the Commanders, so

1103
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 2: it has been five straight home games for them, which

1104
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 2: is literally almost unprecedented. I looked it up prior after

1105
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,239
Speaker 2: they clinched. I think it's only one team in the

1106
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 2: Super Bowl era have had five straight home games entering

1107
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:28,320
Speaker 2: a Super Bowl. So we really just haven't seen them

1108
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,480
Speaker 2: a trailing much and be outside the link, which I

1109
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 2: think are two interesting aspects now, super Bowl in New Orleans, indoors,

1110
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 2: fast track, you know, things of that nature, so don't know,

1111
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 2: you know, making it easier on Saquon and easier for

1112
00:53:47,520 --> 00:53:50,279
Speaker 2: the pass offense that has looked pretty crappy, you know,

1113
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 2: different ways of looking at it. But I thought that

1114
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 2: was interesting.

1115
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:54,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that makes sense.

1116
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,319
Speaker 4: And like with Hollywood if you want the over on

1117
00:53:57,360 --> 00:53:59,880
Speaker 4: that one, maybe you just play the over longest reception

1118
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:02,600
Speaker 4: because that's probably how he's gonna get there anyways, is

1119
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 4: just one longer pass there. I think you can kind

1120
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 4: of be creative with some of those if you like them.

1121
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 4: I was looking at the Philadelphia pass catchers, and we

1122
00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:12,919
Speaker 4: know I was on AJ Brown today did very well.

1123
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 4: I think it would have hit every escalator had it

1124
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:16,600
Speaker 4: been a little closer near the end when they just

1125
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:18,880
Speaker 4: ran the ball the rest of the way. We had

1126
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:21,640
Speaker 4: Davante overs in the first playoff game because of the

1127
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 4: zone matchup for them. I don't have an answer here

1128
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 4: yet to whether I want Aj or Davante. My official

1129
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 4: hot read, though, is a Philadelphia pass catcher hot.

1130
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 2: Rap boy on ice right ice cream.

1131
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 4: How I'm gonna go with Dallas gowder over forty five

1132
00:54:42,040 --> 00:54:44,760
Speaker 4: and a half receiving yards on the game. And really

1133
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:46,920
Speaker 4: this is actually kind of a recycled pick from a

1134
00:54:46,960 --> 00:54:49,479
Speaker 4: pick I almost made going into this game. I looked

1135
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 4: hard at Dalton Kincaid props going to this game. I

1136
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 4: ended up not playing him. I think we saw why

1137
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 4: he couldn't get on the field. He got the really

1138
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 4: big drop on the defining play of the season. So

1139
00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 4: I did not trust the tight ends there. Dallas Goddard

1140
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 4: is someone to trust. Kansas City allowed the most yards

1141
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:08,919
Speaker 4: two tight ends on the season. Goddard today had seven

1142
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 4: catches eighty five yards. Last three games before that fifty

1143
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:16,240
Speaker 4: six yards, forty seven yards, fifty five yards, four catches

1144
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 4: in each one of those games. So that's four straight games.

1145
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:21,319
Speaker 4: He's gone over this just barely in one of them

1146
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 4: and not in a huge way in all of them.

1147
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:25,520
Speaker 4: But I think he's going to continue to get those looks.

1148
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 4: Here's some tight end lines the Chiefs allowed this season.

1149
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 4: First game of the season likely nine catches, one hundred

1150
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 4: and eleven yards, Mike Kaesicki ninety one yards, Kittle ninety

1151
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:38,319
Speaker 4: two kit out and seventy seven Rock Bowers ten for

1152
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:41,440
Speaker 4: one hundred and eighty firing with seven for sixty. The

1153
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,880
Speaker 4: Chiefs have allowed in the regular season forty five receiving

1154
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:46,799
Speaker 4: yards are more to a tight end and eleven out

1155
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:49,839
Speaker 4: of the seventeen games, so sixty five percent hit rate

1156
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,840
Speaker 4: to basically what we need on this number here. So

1157
00:55:52,920 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 4: I like Dallas Goddard over on the receiving yards, and

1158
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:58,200
Speaker 4: I realized that I was reading off those stats on

1159
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:01,319
Speaker 4: those guys. Those tight ends are all catching like six, seven, eight,

1160
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 4: up to ten passes. We might come back on a

1161
00:56:04,160 --> 00:56:07,400
Speaker 4: receptions escalator here. I don't see a lot of escalator

1162
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 4: numbers for Goddard yet, but the Chiefs will allow two

1163
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 4: tight ends seven seven, eight, nine and ten catches. And

1164
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 4: I could see a world, especially if I end up

1165
00:56:16,600 --> 00:56:19,239
Speaker 4: on the Chiefs where the Eagles are kind of in

1166
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:21,239
Speaker 4: a trailing game script and we get some sort of

1167
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 4: dump off to Goddard stuff underneath. I could see him

1168
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 4: getting a bunch of receptions that way. So for now,

1169
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:30,200
Speaker 4: over forty five and a half receiving yards, Dallas Goddard,

1170
00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:31,080
Speaker 4: make sure to get that one.

1171
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 1: Now.

1172
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 4: I do think that line will go up, and we

1173
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,000
Speaker 4: man up on a receptions escalator for him as well.

1174
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 4: And that's that's the Super Bowl hot read.

1175
00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 2: All right, let's turn this into a Dallas Goddard podcast

1176
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 2: at the moment, so we're gonna spend one minute here.

1177
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:45,360
Speaker 2: I will give you a stat and stuck. He tweeted

1178
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 2: this out earlier, so he's now gone. He had seed

1179
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:51,120
Speaker 2: seven receptions for eighty five yards in this game. He's

1180
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:54,560
Speaker 2: gone over his receptions prop in nine straight playoff games.

1181
00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 2: So if he gets four receptions in the Super Bowl,

1182
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:02,200
Speaker 2: got it would join a really exclusive list of players

1183
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:05,560
Speaker 2: with four plus receptions in ten straight playoff games for

1184
00:57:05,680 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 2: talking Kelsey's and Edelman's and Welkers and you know, Jerry

1185
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 2: Rice like a crazy list, except he's also on the

1186
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:15,160
Speaker 2: list just with Kelsey if he does it in terms

1187
00:57:15,200 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 2: of tight ends, which is super impressive in itself. There

1188
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 2: is an reception escalator available here, so they got smart

1189
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 2: A bunch of us bet over three and a half

1190
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:29,800
Speaker 2: receptions for the NFC Championship game. It is now at

1191
00:57:29,800 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 2: four and a half joiced, but five six is plus

1192
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 2: two twenty seven to four to one, eight about eight

1193
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 2: to one, and so those are the options at the moment,

1194
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 2: just to make you aware. But yeah, I mean, Goddard's

1195
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 2: been a perfect blanket for a quarterback that I mean,

1196
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:49,400
Speaker 2: aside from today, and I think we all liked AJ

1197
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:52,840
Speaker 2: Brown in that spot. He wasn't doing a great job

1198
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 2: at passing to his wide outs, which made Goddard a

1199
00:57:56,600 --> 00:58:01,040
Speaker 2: game script non dependent right like winning lose didn't really matter.

1200
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 2: He was kind of available. So I think, God, it's

1201
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 2: a good pick. Do you remember I believe he opened

1202
00:58:07,640 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 2: last week really low, like thirty fours, thirty fives, and

1203
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:14,960
Speaker 2: then closed low forties. So that forty five number feels

1204
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:17,640
Speaker 2: like in line with, you know, a little bit low

1205
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 2: having a great performance, and then I think it's going

1206
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:21,640
Speaker 2: to close in the fifties. So I think you're going

1207
00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 2: to get a good number there.

1208
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:23,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do too.

1209
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:25,479
Speaker 4: That's why I want to grab this one now because

1210
00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 4: I agree. I think we probably approach or hit the fifties.

1211
00:58:28,640 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 4: One last one I saw tweeted out. I think from

1212
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:37,160
Speaker 4: Doug Kazierian twelve to one for overtime at DraftKings. Two

1213
00:58:37,200 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 4: overtimes the last eight Super Bowls. Remember that was the

1214
00:58:39,480 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 4: story for so many years. We've never had an overtime

1215
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:44,240
Speaker 4: in the Super Bowl two in the last eight. Five

1216
00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:47,000
Speaker 4: of the last eight have been one score games. And

1217
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 4: that's the Chiefs. One score games are the specialty. So

1218
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,800
Speaker 4: do we get overtime here? That's just a fun one

1219
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:54,959
Speaker 4: like that's certainly not a best bet sort of thing.

1220
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 4: But my line right now, the part of the reason

1221
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:00,240
Speaker 4: I'm not on a spread here. My model make this

1222
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:03,919
Speaker 4: Chiefs minus point seventy five. That's how close this says.

1223
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:06,120
Speaker 4: These are My number one and number two teams in

1224
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:08,520
Speaker 4: my model have been for much of the season, even

1225
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 4: as high as I was on the Ravens. So when

1226
00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:13,000
Speaker 4: the model is that close on a neutral twelve to

1227
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:14,920
Speaker 4: one on overtime, just to kind of a fun.

1228
00:59:14,760 --> 00:59:15,479
Speaker 3: Super Bowl bet.

1229
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 4: And look, I'll tell you right now, whatever we get

1230
00:59:19,280 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 4: to when we come back for our next time recording,

1231
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,800
Speaker 4: for our Best Bets episode, we will have fun, fun

1232
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:26,000
Speaker 4: bets for the Super Bowl.

1233
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 3: So we I will come up with all sorts of

1234
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:32,320
Speaker 3: fun goofy, wild long shots. Man. I love the cross

1235
00:59:32,320 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 3: sport props.

1236
00:59:33,600 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 4: And like the all the wonky lines they make up,

1237
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 4: like either the Premier League goals in the one game

1238
00:59:39,680 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 4: against the Super Bowl, you know, rushing attempts by some

1239
00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 4: random backup running back. Like I love all that stuff.

1240
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 4: Chance for us to kind of dig in across the board, Yeah,

1241
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 4: we can better believe I'll have some goofy stuff for

1242
00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 4: us when we get to our Best Bets again for

1243
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 4: that one.

1244
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:55,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, there's gonna be a lot of props

1245
00:59:56,000 --> 00:59:58,880
Speaker 2: out there, like will what happened in the first Super

1246
00:59:58,880 --> 01:00:02,080
Speaker 2: Bowl also happened in this super Bowl? Like the score

1247
01:00:02,200 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 2: be this, There's gonna be all especially when we get

1248
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 2: these matchups again, and I think there's gonna be a

1249
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:09,280
Speaker 2: lot of Barkley stuff, especially with that line in the

1250
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 2: one fourteen range, and his any time is already like

1251
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:16,240
Speaker 2: minus it's minus one ninety, it looks like at the moment.

1252
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 2: So I mean, that's gonna be a part of a

1253
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 2: lot of different things. I mean, that's to me, what

1254
01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:24,880
Speaker 2: the interesting thing about this Super Bowl is is you

1255
01:00:25,040 --> 01:00:27,760
Speaker 2: have a rusher in the game that I just don't

1256
01:00:27,800 --> 01:00:29,520
Speaker 2: think we're used to. And I just looked this up.

1257
01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:32,840
Speaker 2: Last one hundred yard rusher in the Super Bowl? Quick?

1258
01:00:32,880 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 2: Do you actually know who it is? Because I wouldn't

1259
01:00:34,760 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 2: have gotten.

1260
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,920
Speaker 3: This last one hundred yard rusher.

1261
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:39,360
Speaker 2: I'm putting you on the spot here.

1262
01:00:39,920 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 4: You know, I'm a man, I'm going too far back,

1263
01:00:43,120 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 4: but I'm shooting them with Sean Alexander.

1264
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:49,320
Speaker 2: Yeah. So it's not because I never would have remembered

1265
01:00:49,360 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 2: this guy. But it was Damian Williams for the Chiefs

1266
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:55,840
Speaker 2: in that twenty twenty game. So, but just to prove

1267
01:00:55,840 --> 01:00:58,080
Speaker 2: a point with this line of one fourteen for sake,

1268
01:00:58,160 --> 01:01:01,360
Speaker 2: one so Damian Williams had one hundred and four before that,

1269
01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:04,920
Speaker 2: it was Marshawn Lynch twenty fifteen with one hundred and two,

1270
01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 2: then Frank Gore twenty thirteen with one to ten. So

1271
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 2: to prove a point, no guys hit one twenty since

1272
01:01:12,680 --> 01:01:16,280
Speaker 2: Michael Pittman in two thousand and three. So this line

1273
01:01:16,320 --> 01:01:20,000
Speaker 2: of one fourteen and a half is really pretty historical

1274
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:22,760
Speaker 2: when you think about where we get when we get

1275
01:01:22,760 --> 01:01:24,280
Speaker 2: to the Super Bowl and kind of when we get

1276
01:01:24,320 --> 01:01:27,200
Speaker 2: to crunch time and you know, butt tight time, and

1277
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:30,080
Speaker 2: how many of these players actually go this high in

1278
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:34,320
Speaker 2: terms of yardage. So pretty crazy, nonetheless, but that I

1279
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:36,640
Speaker 2: think that's good for the matchup here. I don't know

1280
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:38,040
Speaker 2: if I have too much else. Do you have anything

1281
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 2: else here? Brandon?

1282
01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:40,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think just relating the way you

1283
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:43,040
Speaker 4: just said the worth mentioning too. We're going to talk,

1284
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:45,600
Speaker 4: i'm sure about Super Bowl MVPs, so we'll come back

1285
01:01:45,640 --> 01:01:47,600
Speaker 4: to that. You and I will both be on the

1286
01:01:47,600 --> 01:01:51,440
Speaker 4: Favorite podcast as well. We've said this before, the MVP.

1287
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 3: And non quarterback.

1288
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 4: You wanted an Eagle here, so I think that everyone's

1289
01:01:55,240 --> 01:01:57,320
Speaker 4: going to be looking for who's the non quarterback you

1290
01:01:57,360 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 4: want from the Eagle? If you want a Super Bowl MVP, well,

1291
01:01:59,840 --> 01:02:03,560
Speaker 4: the obvious choice is Saquon Barkley. But I'm going off

1292
01:02:03,600 --> 01:02:06,200
Speaker 4: the top of my head here, I believe Terrell Davis

1293
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:08,920
Speaker 4: was the last MVP running back in the Super Bowl,

1294
01:02:09,080 --> 01:02:11,480
Speaker 4: Like I think it has not happened this century. And

1295
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:13,400
Speaker 4: that fits with what you're saying, like, if you're not

1296
01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:16,360
Speaker 4: topping one hundred and twenty yards, how much you're gonna

1297
01:02:16,360 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 4: have to do in order to be able to get

1298
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:18,479
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl MVP?

1299
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:18,880
Speaker 3: Doing that?

1300
01:02:18,880 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 4: I think David Williams would have had a pretty good

1301
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:22,920
Speaker 4: case the year that he had it. But then it's

1302
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:25,280
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes a zomba team, So it's just gonna default

1303
01:02:25,280 --> 01:02:28,160
Speaker 4: to Patrick Mahomes getting the MVP. So I think, to me,

1304
01:02:28,360 --> 01:02:32,800
Speaker 4: MVP thoughts, has Mahomes wanted enough a lah Tom Brady

1305
01:02:33,200 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 4: that maybe the voters kind of get bored with it

1306
01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:36,479
Speaker 4: and give to somebody else?

1307
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:39,080
Speaker 3: If it's the Chiefs and is that Kelsey? Is it

1308
01:02:39,240 --> 01:02:41,400
Speaker 3: zev You're worthy? Is ZEVI You're worthy?

1309
01:02:41,440 --> 01:02:44,400
Speaker 4: Maybe you get some run plays or a kick return

1310
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,120
Speaker 4: where it's not a Mahomes type play. Could that be

1311
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:50,120
Speaker 4: a way that someone gets that? With the Eagles, who's

1312
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:53,120
Speaker 4: the non quarterback option or is it that it's always

1313
01:02:53,160 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 4: the quarterback and Jalen Hurts becomes the value because Saquon

1314
01:02:56,600 --> 01:02:58,840
Speaker 4: is getting bat and aj and Devonte getting bat and

1315
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:01,080
Speaker 4: that sort of thing. So I think that will be

1316
01:03:01,080 --> 01:03:04,240
Speaker 4: a fun conversation. And yeah, we've got two weeks to

1317
01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 4: cover it. We will have picks on everything. We'll have

1318
01:03:07,040 --> 01:03:10,840
Speaker 4: Super Bowl MVP articles up. I will have an article

1319
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 4: coming up soon, I think probably sometime this week. A

1320
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:17,520
Speaker 4: year ago, at this time, this first non super Bowl

1321
01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:20,400
Speaker 4: week before we get to the big week, I said, Okay,

1322
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 4: who is next year's Chiefs.

1323
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:24,280
Speaker 3: Who is next year's forty nine ers?

1324
01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:26,840
Speaker 4: Who is next year's Ravens At the time, and out

1325
01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:29,960
Speaker 4: of that article, I said, my favorite super Bowl beat

1326
01:03:30,000 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 4: at the time? Ill I had two of them. One

1327
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:34,040
Speaker 4: of them was the Jets did not work out for me.

1328
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 4: One of them was the Eagles twenty two to one.

1329
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:39,480
Speaker 4: And that's what I'm saying right now is on an

1330
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 4: Eagles twenty two to one ticket from January thirtieth, a

1331
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:45,200
Speaker 4: year ago, and on a chief sixteen to one ticket

1332
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:48,320
Speaker 4: with the one seed from before the season, pretty good

1333
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:50,120
Speaker 4: way to play the Super Bowl if you just cash

1334
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:52,479
Speaker 4: sixteen to one or twenty two to one either way.

1335
01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:54,640
Speaker 4: But the Eagles twenty two to one. That's a ticket

1336
01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:55,960
Speaker 4: you never were going to get by the time we

1337
01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 4: got to the season. So we'll get into that this

1338
01:03:58,800 --> 01:04:01,360
Speaker 4: week as well, probably have some of that stuff as

1339
01:04:01,360 --> 01:04:03,439
Speaker 4: we get to our Super Bowl best bets next time.

1340
01:04:04,120 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 4: I think that's it from Mayen. I'm excited to get

1341
01:04:06,160 --> 01:04:07,800
Speaker 4: into this and learn more about the matchup.

1342
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:13,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just to answer your question, Mahomes, the Super

1343
01:04:13,160 --> 01:04:16,000
Speaker 2: Bowl MVP odds are out. Mahomes plus one oh five

1344
01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:19,120
Speaker 2: is the favorite. Interesting that he's plus one oh five

1345
01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:21,480
Speaker 2: and the Chiefs are minus one thirty two on the

1346
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 2: money line to win the game, so you can kind

1347
01:04:23,200 --> 01:04:26,120
Speaker 2: of see the spread difference there between the money line

1348
01:04:26,160 --> 01:04:28,840
Speaker 2: and him winning the award. It is also funny so

1349
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:31,800
Speaker 2: Saquon's two at plus two to eighty and it hurts

1350
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:34,400
Speaker 2: his three at plus three seventy. So I'm interested to

1351
01:04:34,440 --> 01:04:37,360
Speaker 2: look back in history and see how many times quarterback

1352
01:04:37,480 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 2: wasn't one two or I guess if the spread was

1353
01:04:40,160 --> 01:04:43,240
Speaker 2: really large in the game, you have another player there,

1354
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:46,200
Speaker 2: but it's interesting to see a player over the quarterback

1355
01:04:46,360 --> 01:04:49,760
Speaker 2: on the same team. We can talk the producer.

1356
01:04:49,920 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 4: Our producer David Pain says he wants Cooper to gene

1357
01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:54,720
Speaker 4: Super Bowl MVP. So we'll put that pick in for

1358
01:04:54,800 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 4: him Hot two hundred to one, Gene.

1359
01:04:57,360 --> 01:05:00,480
Speaker 2: Two hundred to one. That's great, and we can sprinkle

1360
01:05:00,560 --> 01:05:03,440
Speaker 2: on Dallas Goddard ninety to one to win Super Bowl MBBN,

1361
01:05:03,760 --> 01:05:05,560
Speaker 2: because you know, if he's gonna do it, he might

1362
01:05:05,560 --> 01:05:06,600
Speaker 2: as well go the distance.

1363
01:05:06,880 --> 01:05:07,240
Speaker 3: All right.

1364
01:05:07,280 --> 01:05:09,880
Speaker 2: Before we wrap up, let's hear from Patrick Everson from

1365
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 2: Vegas Insiders and how things looked in Las Vegas.

1366
01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:14,480
Speaker 1: All right, Evan, thanks a lot for having me back

1367
01:05:14,480 --> 01:05:18,240
Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast. As I recapped the weekend

1368
01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:22,800
Speaker 1: that was in conference championship odds, and quite a weekend.

1369
01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 1: It was quite a Sunday it was. There was a

1370
01:05:25,840 --> 01:05:29,000
Speaker 1: lot of back and forth this weekend. The betters did

1371
01:05:29,040 --> 01:05:31,720
Speaker 1: well in spots and the bookmakers did well in spots,

1372
01:05:31,760 --> 01:05:35,120
Speaker 1: a lot of give and take. Wasn't necessarily a huge

1373
01:05:35,120 --> 01:05:36,520
Speaker 1: win for the public the way a lot of the

1374
01:05:36,560 --> 01:05:40,000
Speaker 1: regular season was. It wasn't necessarily a big win for

1375
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:42,400
Speaker 1: the books either, and in fact, maybe even some small.

1376
01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 2: Losses for the books.

1377
01:05:43,080 --> 01:05:47,560
Speaker 1: But nobody totally went off with the two results that

1378
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:50,720
Speaker 1: came about Sunday. A lot of ground to cover, But

1379
01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:53,680
Speaker 1: I'll just take him game by game and that first game.

1380
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:57,800
Speaker 1: Going back and forth with Christian Cippolini at bet MGM,

1381
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 1: he noted a head of kickoff that they were going

1382
01:06:01,280 --> 01:06:04,040
Speaker 1: to need the Eagles for sure, and in fact, he

1383
01:06:04,120 --> 01:06:06,600
Speaker 1: said the sports book was hoping for a Chief's Eagle

1384
01:06:06,680 --> 01:06:09,919
Speaker 1: Super Bowl because the public was all over the underdogs

1385
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:13,840
Speaker 1: in these conference championship games and at Benham Jam and elsewhere.

1386
01:06:13,880 --> 01:06:16,400
Speaker 1: They weren't just on the underdogs on the spread, and

1387
01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:19,480
Speaker 1: granted the Chiefs bill spread was a very short spread,

1388
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:22,280
Speaker 1: but they were also on the underdogs on the money line.

1389
01:06:22,360 --> 01:06:24,960
Speaker 1: They were really attractive kind of the way that betters

1390
01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:26,080
Speaker 1: tend to play the Super Bowl.

1391
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:27,880
Speaker 2: They played the.

1392
01:06:27,640 --> 01:06:30,120
Speaker 1: Favorite spread and the dog money line, but in this

1393
01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:32,440
Speaker 1: case they were playing the dog in both cases had

1394
01:06:32,480 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 1: a lot of books, including Bedem Jams, So betom Jam

1395
01:06:35,440 --> 01:06:37,480
Speaker 1: was kind of rooting for what they got ultimately, which

1396
01:06:37,560 --> 01:06:38,400
Speaker 1: was the Chiefs.

1397
01:06:38,080 --> 01:06:38,680
Speaker 2: And the Eagles.

1398
01:06:39,680 --> 01:06:43,000
Speaker 1: Now that said, what they weren't rooting for necessarily in

1399
01:06:43,000 --> 01:06:45,880
Speaker 1: that first game, they really would have liked an Eagles win,

1400
01:06:46,160 --> 01:06:49,840
Speaker 1: a Commander's cover and the under. They got an Eagles win,

1401
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:54,800
Speaker 1: an Eagles cover and the over, obviously massively because just

1402
01:06:54,840 --> 01:06:58,600
Speaker 1: a boatload of points were scored, so when this games

1403
01:06:58,600 --> 01:07:02,600
Speaker 1: go over. It's not just losing on over because nowadays

1404
01:07:02,840 --> 01:07:07,120
Speaker 1: single game parlays are just so popular. Betters tend to

1405
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:09,680
Speaker 1: pet the over on all these games anyway. But when

1406
01:07:09,680 --> 01:07:11,760
Speaker 1: you start getting into all these player props and then

1407
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:15,080
Speaker 1: single game parlays where you're stringing together player props and

1408
01:07:15,120 --> 01:07:17,000
Speaker 1: there's a ton of touchdowns and a lot of different

1409
01:07:17,000 --> 01:07:22,160
Speaker 1: players scoring, it just explodes the liability for the sportsbooks

1410
01:07:22,320 --> 01:07:25,480
Speaker 1: when you get these high scoring games. So that was

1411
01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:28,120
Speaker 1: definitely not a good outcome probably for any book that

1412
01:07:28,200 --> 01:07:31,400
Speaker 1: both these games went over, especially by how far over

1413
01:07:31,440 --> 01:07:34,960
Speaker 1: the Eagles, the Eagles Commander's game went and that opener

1414
01:07:35,440 --> 01:07:40,760
Speaker 1: on Sunday, but certainly the Chiefs Bills game going over

1415
01:07:40,840 --> 01:07:44,400
Speaker 1: as well. So moving into that game, that was one

1416
01:07:44,480 --> 01:07:48,840
Speaker 1: where BETMGM, one example, didn't necessarily have a big need

1417
01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 1: on either side. They wouldn't have mined they wanted the

1418
01:07:51,320 --> 01:07:53,280
Speaker 1: Chiefs because they want to Chiefs the Eagles Super Bowl.

1419
01:07:54,080 --> 01:07:56,280
Speaker 1: They weren't necessarily going to win or lose a ton

1420
01:07:56,320 --> 01:07:58,880
Speaker 1: to either side on that game, which probably isn't that surprising.

1421
01:07:58,920 --> 01:08:01,840
Speaker 1: You had a really short spread, good action on both sides,

1422
01:08:02,080 --> 01:08:04,240
Speaker 1: and as I alluded to a little bit ago. The

1423
01:08:04,280 --> 01:08:06,640
Speaker 1: Bills as a road underdogs were popular just like the

1424
01:08:06,680 --> 01:08:12,600
Speaker 1: Commanders were. But BETEMGM definitely took a little ding on

1425
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:15,520
Speaker 1: the over in that game. Two hundred thousand dollars bet

1426
01:08:15,680 --> 01:08:20,439
Speaker 1: on Chief Bills over forty seven and a half. And again,

1427
01:08:20,439 --> 01:08:22,439
Speaker 1: when you're getting these high scoring games, that game ended

1428
01:08:22,520 --> 01:08:25,639
Speaker 1: up with sixty plus points in it. So single game

1429
01:08:25,640 --> 01:08:30,200
Speaker 1: parlays and so forth were hitting wasn't necessarily ideal.

1430
01:08:30,200 --> 01:08:30,280
Speaker 2: But.

1431
01:08:32,000 --> 01:08:34,960
Speaker 1: Still it wasn't necessarily like it was a ridiculously bad

1432
01:08:35,000 --> 01:08:36,719
Speaker 1: outcome for the books. A lot of give and take.

1433
01:08:36,960 --> 01:08:39,000
Speaker 1: Probably a small loser for some books that were a

1434
01:08:39,000 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 1: couple of odds makers in pockets that really got beat up.

1435
01:08:44,240 --> 01:08:46,479
Speaker 1: But generally speaking, it was not a bad day for

1436
01:08:46,520 --> 01:08:48,719
Speaker 1: the books and not necessarily a bad day for the betters.

1437
01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:51,479
Speaker 1: A lot of really big bets. I just alluded to

1438
01:08:51,479 --> 01:08:53,840
Speaker 1: that one on the Chief Bills over forty seven and

1439
01:08:53,880 --> 01:08:57,280
Speaker 1: a half that won two hundred thousand dollars bet, So

1440
01:08:57,760 --> 01:09:01,040
Speaker 1: that's not too bad. This one was the biggest one

1441
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:02,840
Speaker 1: of the week, it's one of the biggest ones of

1442
01:09:02,880 --> 01:09:05,599
Speaker 1: the season. It's certainly I believe it's the biggest one

1443
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:07,639
Speaker 1: of the playoffs so far, and that was one point

1444
01:09:07,680 --> 01:09:10,680
Speaker 1: three million dollars on the Chiefs money line minus one

1445
01:09:10,880 --> 01:09:14,599
Speaker 1: thirty and that was at Caesar Sports. So Caesar Sports

1446
01:09:14,640 --> 01:09:17,679
Speaker 1: had to cough up a million dollars to that better

1447
01:09:18,080 --> 01:09:21,600
Speaker 1: who won that bet just barely in a really in

1448
01:09:21,600 --> 01:09:25,320
Speaker 1: a great AFC Championship game. Some other big bets went

1449
01:09:25,360 --> 01:09:28,200
Speaker 1: down in flames, including there was a million dollar bet

1450
01:09:28,240 --> 01:09:30,760
Speaker 1: on the Bills plus five point fifty to win the

1451
01:09:30,800 --> 01:09:33,920
Speaker 1: Super Bowl that was made over the past week week

1452
01:09:33,920 --> 01:09:35,400
Speaker 1: and a half. It was made just ahead of the

1453
01:09:35,479 --> 01:09:40,080
Speaker 1: divisional round. That bet goes down in flames. And then

1454
01:09:40,320 --> 01:09:44,439
Speaker 1: there was a million dollar play Sunday ahead of the

1455
01:09:44,479 --> 01:09:49,040
Speaker 1: Commanders Eagles kickoff on under forty seven and a half.

1456
01:09:49,520 --> 01:09:51,960
Speaker 1: There were forty two points scored in the first half,

1457
01:09:52,040 --> 01:09:55,000
Speaker 1: there were seventy eight points scored in the game. The

1458
01:09:55,160 --> 01:09:59,240
Speaker 1: over hit six minutes into the third quarter. So that

1459
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:03,960
Speaker 1: million dollar bet at Draft Kings went begging and it

1460
01:10:04,000 --> 01:10:06,240
Speaker 1: was just a nice big donation to the house. And

1461
01:10:06,280 --> 01:10:09,479
Speaker 1: then also at Borgata Sports Book in Atlantic City, which

1462
01:10:09,520 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 1: is a bet MGM property, there was a two hundred

1463
01:10:13,479 --> 01:10:17,440
Speaker 1: and fifteen thousand dollars bet again on the under forty.

1464
01:10:17,200 --> 01:10:17,760
Speaker 2: Nine and a half.

1465
01:10:17,800 --> 01:10:22,280
Speaker 1: And obviously the overs got there relatively easily today, certainly

1466
01:10:22,320 --> 01:10:25,200
Speaker 1: in the first game, and didn't have too much trouble

1467
01:10:25,200 --> 01:10:26,720
Speaker 1: in the second game. There was a good chunk of

1468
01:10:26,760 --> 01:10:29,960
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter left by the when they overhit in

1469
01:10:30,040 --> 01:10:32,040
Speaker 1: the Bills Chiefs game, so that two hundred and fifteen

1470
01:10:32,120 --> 01:10:35,479
Speaker 1: thousand dollars bet also went begging. So there were certainly

1471
01:10:35,520 --> 01:10:38,160
Speaker 1: spots where the sportsbooks really did good with some of

1472
01:10:38,200 --> 01:10:41,800
Speaker 1: these major wagers, if you will. But again a kind

1473
01:10:41,800 --> 01:10:44,360
Speaker 1: of a back and forth day. Now, let's look ahead

1474
01:10:44,360 --> 01:10:47,479
Speaker 1: of the Super Bowl. The Chiefs opened minus one, minus

1475
01:10:47,520 --> 01:10:49,400
Speaker 1: one and a half, depending on the book you were at.

1476
01:10:49,520 --> 01:10:52,720
Speaker 1: I see that there might even be a two out there,

1477
01:10:52,760 --> 01:10:55,040
Speaker 1: a couple of two's out there now as we're looking

1478
01:10:55,080 --> 01:10:58,080
Speaker 1: at numbers, but generally the consensus is Chiefs minus one

1479
01:10:58,080 --> 01:10:59,840
Speaker 1: and a half. I was out at the super book

1480
01:11:00,520 --> 01:11:03,920
Speaker 1: all day Sunday, and I was there when the opening

1481
01:11:03,960 --> 01:11:06,960
Speaker 1: odds went up, and the super book opened at one

1482
01:11:07,040 --> 01:11:09,360
Speaker 1: and immediately went to one and a half. And what

1483
01:11:09,479 --> 01:11:12,040
Speaker 1: Casey Degnan, the risk manager at the super book, said

1484
01:11:12,479 --> 01:11:14,720
Speaker 1: was we did see some Chiefs action right out of

1485
01:11:14,720 --> 01:11:16,560
Speaker 1: the gate. However, once they went to one and a

1486
01:11:16,600 --> 01:11:19,360
Speaker 1: half and action continued to come in it was a

1487
01:11:19,360 --> 01:11:23,000
Speaker 1: pretty steady stream on both sides, so pretty evenly split

1488
01:11:23,240 --> 01:11:26,439
Speaker 1: action early in the early going. And again this is

1489
01:11:26,640 --> 01:11:29,599
Speaker 1: nominal action in the early going. The massive, massive amount

1490
01:11:29,600 --> 01:11:30,840
Speaker 1: of money that's going to come in on this game

1491
01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:33,040
Speaker 1: is going to be Saturday and Sunday two weeks from now,

1492
01:11:33,439 --> 01:11:35,920
Speaker 1: super Bowl weekend in New Orleans. That's when all the

1493
01:11:35,960 --> 01:11:37,439
Speaker 1: cash is going to come in. And plus you got

1494
01:11:37,479 --> 01:11:40,120
Speaker 1: all these all the hundreds and hundreds of prop bets

1495
01:11:40,120 --> 01:11:41,559
Speaker 1: that are going to be on the board and so forth.

1496
01:11:41,600 --> 01:11:44,640
Speaker 1: But again, early action hit the Chiefs took us up

1497
01:11:44,640 --> 01:11:46,920
Speaker 1: to one and a half. The total went from forty

1498
01:11:47,000 --> 01:11:48,720
Speaker 1: nine and a half to fifty back to forty nine

1499
01:11:48,760 --> 01:11:51,680
Speaker 1: and a half at the super book. And this is

1500
01:11:52,040 --> 01:11:56,240
Speaker 1: all I counted for in my Super Bowl opening odds

1501
01:11:56,240 --> 01:11:58,879
Speaker 1: and action report, which is up now on Vegas Insider

1502
01:11:59,080 --> 01:12:03,080
Speaker 1: dot com. And the beauty of this articles, as is

1503
01:12:03,080 --> 01:12:07,640
Speaker 1: the case every week, is that it will update throughout

1504
01:12:08,080 --> 01:12:11,040
Speaker 1: the next two weeks in reverse chronological order, so the

1505
01:12:11,160 --> 01:12:13,040
Speaker 1: latest updates will be right at the top of the article.

1506
01:12:13,240 --> 01:12:16,240
Speaker 1: You'll get a wide variety of sportsbook perspectives from across

1507
01:12:16,280 --> 01:12:19,240
Speaker 1: the nation. It's super book right now, but we'll be

1508
01:12:19,280 --> 01:12:22,439
Speaker 1: adding in information and insights from odds makers at at

1509
01:12:22,560 --> 01:12:27,960
Speaker 1: MGM and Draft Kings and Caesars and more over the

1510
01:12:28,000 --> 01:12:31,040
Speaker 1: next couple of weeks for sure. So check that out

1511
01:12:31,040 --> 01:12:34,000
Speaker 1: over a Vegas Insider bookmarket and watch for updates over

1512
01:12:34,040 --> 01:12:36,200
Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks. And there you have it,

1513
01:12:36,280 --> 01:12:38,559
Speaker 1: a recap of the weekend that was in the Conference

1514
01:12:38,600 --> 01:12:41,479
Speaker 1: Championship betting and a little look ahead to the Super Bowl.

1515
01:12:41,560 --> 01:12:43,679
Speaker 1: Thanks a lot, Evan, and hope we'll talk again soon.

1516
01:12:44,120 --> 01:12:47,400
Speaker 2: Awesome. Well, that that has been the Action Network podcast

1517
01:12:47,439 --> 01:12:51,719
Speaker 2: recap episode Conference Championship Style. I'm gonna have an article

1518
01:12:51,760 --> 01:12:55,760
Speaker 2: out like Monday, probably tomorrow today when you're listening to

1519
01:12:55,800 --> 01:13:00,320
Speaker 2: this or Tuesday morning of just all early trends, notes,

1520
01:13:00,439 --> 01:13:03,320
Speaker 2: stats for these teams, and then I'll do a big

1521
01:13:03,360 --> 01:13:07,240
Speaker 2: breakout next week super Bowl week with Gatorade and the

1522
01:13:07,280 --> 01:13:10,160
Speaker 2: whole deal by team and player and all that fun stuff.

1523
01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:13,559
Speaker 2: So check that stuff out from me. Brandon's gonna have

1524
01:13:14,040 --> 01:13:16,160
Speaker 2: all of his best bets and he's gonna have his article.

1525
01:13:16,160 --> 01:13:18,160
Speaker 2: He said he'd come out in a day or so

1526
01:13:18,920 --> 01:13:20,880
Speaker 2: and check us out all week is We're going to

1527
01:13:20,920 --> 01:13:24,080
Speaker 2: be previewing Eagles Chiefs for the second time in a

1528
01:13:24,120 --> 01:13:28,679
Speaker 2: few years. Thanks for listening in and hopefully you enjoy

1529
01:13:28,720 --> 01:13:58,200
Speaker 2: the break.

1530
01:13:44,640 --> 01:13:49,160
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1531
01:13:49,160 --> 01:13:51,960
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1532
01:13:52,000 --> 01:13:55,120
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler