WEBVTT - Putin The Ruthless.  Mike Lyons on the Russia/Ukraine Conflict.  

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<v Speaker 1>Russian troops on the move again. Ukrainian officials tonight expressing

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<v Speaker 1>a new concern about further big deployments and neighboring Belarus

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<v Speaker 1>of Russian soldiers along with tanks, artillery and other hardware,

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<v Speaker 1>just some of over one hundred and twenty five thousand

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<v Speaker 1>troops threatening a possible full scale invasion of the country.

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<v Speaker 1>And the story broke in the last seventy two hours

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<v Speaker 1>that Joe Biden had a change of heart for some

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<v Speaker 1>reason on the whole idea of US sending troops anywhere,

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<v Speaker 1>and we now have eight troops on heightened alert as

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<v Speaker 1>of today, and the idea of sending them to somewhere

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<v Speaker 1>in the region, not Ukraine, but somewhere in the region,

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<v Speaker 1>and definitely more you know, armament stuff, you know, support.

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<v Speaker 1>Military analyst Mike Lyons joins US. Mike served with various

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<v Speaker 1>military organizations for the United States of America throughout his career.

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<v Speaker 1>Was awarded the Bronze Starfer's Actions in Combat, among other recognition. Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you, sir, hey when you guys good to

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<v Speaker 1>be back to do? First of all, and I asked

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<v Speaker 1>this because a lot of our listeners are emailing talking

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<v Speaker 1>about guys, we can't go to war war with Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna go wagging the dog getting in a war.

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<v Speaker 1>Where are the troops and our armaments being sent and

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<v Speaker 1>what's the significance of it? I say, Yeah, First of all,

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<v Speaker 1>this is not a waged dog. This is a very

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<v Speaker 1>serious military build up on the side of Russia, who's

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<v Speaker 1>acting more like the Soviet Union right now from more

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<v Speaker 1>analysis that I've been doing in the past few days

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<v Speaker 1>here and they're they're bringing troops from Siberia way the

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<v Speaker 1>east of Moscow. They are have a very very serious

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<v Speaker 1>military build up here, sending troops into Belarus. UM Navy

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<v Speaker 1>for example, is going to go to do an exercise

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<v Speaker 1>in the Irish Sea. And the only thing I can

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<v Speaker 1>see from there that perspective is, you know, a technology

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<v Speaker 1>that trans first from Europe the United States and underground

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<v Speaker 1>cables and things. So they're doing a many things right

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<v Speaker 1>now that are seemed to be very aggressive with regard

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<v Speaker 1>their military. So number one, this is not a waged dog.

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<v Speaker 1>So it comes back to this issue of what's this

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<v Speaker 1>level of the terns that we're going to do to

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<v Speaker 1>keep them from a really doing something. Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we were sending eighty five twops where we put them

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<v Speaker 1>on heightened alert, that's like double secret probation frankly, because

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<v Speaker 1>with the amount of troops that they have there right now, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>we wouldn't get anybody there on time. If we were

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<v Speaker 1>going to put them in Ukraine. We might be able

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<v Speaker 1>to help in a NATO country that's surrounding them, But

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<v Speaker 1>for all practical purposes right now, we've got to look

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<v Speaker 1>at this through the eyes of Russia and say they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to definitely do something. And that's just the question

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<v Speaker 1>is a matter of When I saw one analyst talking

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<v Speaker 1>about Russia having in place what it needs for a

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<v Speaker 1>blitzkrieg like operation, just a super fast, overwhelming they've got

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<v Speaker 1>the country before you know what happened sort of maneuver.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that possible? Yeah, I think it's true. And they're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna avoid built up areas and likely go for their

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<v Speaker 1>military and so Russia will win this by destroying the

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine military. Now, we could send all the ammunition and

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<v Speaker 1>javelins and and surface air missiles we want and they

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<v Speaker 1>get to Kiev and you know they can send on

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<v Speaker 1>the docks in place. But but the bottom line is, um,

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<v Speaker 1>if we if if they've destroyed any of users of

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<v Speaker 1>that equipment, it's not going to matter. And they know

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<v Speaker 1>where it all is, they know how they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>target it, they know what they're gonna do. They're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>bypass certain areas. I think that the fact that they

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<v Speaker 1>put so many troops down in the in the northern part,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, in that Belarus area, shows they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>do this pincer movement where they're likely come from the north.

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<v Speaker 1>They're likely looked to surround the capitol, um and and

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<v Speaker 1>and and and not just take control of of the country,

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<v Speaker 1>but you know, really destroy the military and just put

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<v Speaker 1>it set it back thirty to fifty years when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to being a country. And if they just had

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<v Speaker 1>to leave, then then so what they've destroyed. So Russia's

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<v Speaker 1>perspective of Ukraine is there an enemy. Um, they've been

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<v Speaker 1>they've been fighting for them for the past seven years. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>They perceived them as a threat. They perceived them as

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<v Speaker 1>trying to align with the West. And from their perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>they don't think the terrence has worked. And they've tried

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<v Speaker 1>to ternce on Ukraine and from their perspective, it hasn't worked,

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<v Speaker 1>which is why they're doing what they're doing. Let's rewind

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit, and I realized this could be a

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<v Speaker 1>book length answer. But what are the American interests in Ukraine?

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<v Speaker 1>In Russia's aggressions in Ukraine? Why do we care? Well, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>at fifty feet, it's supporting, you know, a sovereign nation,

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<v Speaker 1>that's democracy. So if it's more ideological than it is economic,

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<v Speaker 1>let's say, um, from that perspective, and is you know

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<v Speaker 1>we can cavalist well or not that's a good idea

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<v Speaker 1>to go to war over. Probably not in today's world. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Number two, it also serves as potentially this lynch pin

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<v Speaker 1>that would drive NATO apart. You've got already the Germans

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<v Speaker 1>not playing. They're not really participating in what's going on

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<v Speaker 1>because they rely on about their energy comes from Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>so they're not looking to get into any kind of

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<v Speaker 1>conflict with Russia. UM. But other than that, it's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>us trying to prop up um. You know, these Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>European countries who mistakenly we allowed in NATO following thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and four under the Bush administration. You know. So, so

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<v Speaker 1>this could end up turning out to be a war

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<v Speaker 1>of former Soviet bloc countries against against Russia. What happens then?

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<v Speaker 1>What happens if Romania decides to cross the border that

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<v Speaker 1>they share with Ukraine and help the Ukraine military. Russia

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<v Speaker 1>attacks them and does something into Ukraine, It launches missiles

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<v Speaker 1>into into Rope And then what happens. Then that's a

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<v Speaker 1>NATO country. Here we go Article five And now the

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<v Speaker 1>US has dragged into this. This was the problem of

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<v Speaker 1>putting these countries in. I've said this before. We can't

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<v Speaker 1>have membership to NATO to be everybody but Russia. Same

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<v Speaker 1>mistake we're making that we made it started World War One. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm glad you brought that up, that whole NATO Article

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<v Speaker 1>five things. So that's the danger of the United States

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<v Speaker 1>actually getting involved. Right if if any NATO plane or

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<v Speaker 1>ship or soldier or anybody, um somehow on purpose or

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<v Speaker 1>inadvertently gets attacked, then then things change. Yeah, and theory.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of things going on in the med

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<v Speaker 1>right now. We've got a carrier group there, the Russians

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<v Speaker 1>have got UM naval forces there, They've got them in

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<v Speaker 1>the Atlantic in the Black Sea. Of course, anything that

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<v Speaker 1>we just don't know what that trigger could be, and

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<v Speaker 1>that could lead to a further escalation, and and then

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<v Speaker 1>what does that look like. I mean, from from our perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>it's only strategic weapons, because, like I said, we we

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<v Speaker 1>don't have any cap ability to get troops there on time.

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<v Speaker 1>I just don't think troops on high alert is the

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<v Speaker 1>is a kind of deterrence that we need to be doing.

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<v Speaker 1>I also don't agree with US implementing sanctions right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Anything we do right now is going to be considered preemptive.

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<v Speaker 1>It's going to be considered an act of war on

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian side. So I think that'll just further down

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<v Speaker 1>the road his capability of of wanting to to do

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<v Speaker 1>this even more. I mean, he's got to look at

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<v Speaker 1>right now the cost of not acting that that Talleyrand

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<v Speaker 1>expression about, you know, you can do a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>things that bayonets but can't sit on him. He's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>lose a lot of face here if nothing, if nothing

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<v Speaker 1>does happen, if he doesn't do anything. Um with his

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<v Speaker 1>own people, I think, UM, and we've got to figure

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<v Speaker 1>out diplomatically if there's if there's an off ramp to

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<v Speaker 1>that or not or else. Right now, from the way

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<v Speaker 1>I look at it, UM, the Ukraine military is about

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<v Speaker 1>to be destroyed. Well boy there, Well, there's been some

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<v Speaker 1>reporting that the Ukraine military's plan is to kill as

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<v Speaker 1>many Russian soldiers as fast as they can and have

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian public turn against this. Of course, if it's

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<v Speaker 1>a to day operation for Russian to roll through the

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<v Speaker 1>whole country and take it over, there wouldn't be time

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<v Speaker 1>to uh public opinion. There's a crazy op in the

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<v Speaker 1>worst of insurance say that says a hundred thousand troops

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<v Speaker 1>is not enough. And I sit there and go, how

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<v Speaker 1>do you know that? I mean, we look at we

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<v Speaker 1>look at the situation in the past of what's what's happened.

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<v Speaker 1>I just don't think that that's you know, a feasible

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<v Speaker 1>way of deterrence and making sure that that that that uh,

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to keep them from doing anything. Mike, have

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<v Speaker 1>you actually let loose the dogs of war? We can

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<v Speaker 1>hear the dogs of war in the background. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>had him, had him rocked up, but he gets that

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<v Speaker 1>you worry about it. We just thought that was a

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<v Speaker 1>funny joke. That's all there was to that. Bans. Military

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<v Speaker 1>analysts on the line always great to talk to, Mike James.

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<v Speaker 1>So is the most likely thing that happens. Then Russia

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<v Speaker 1>moves in. It only takes a couple of days, they

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<v Speaker 1>destroy the Ukrainian they take over Ukraine and the world

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<v Speaker 1>says in what are you gonna do? Is that what's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna happen? Yeah? I think so. I think that the

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<v Speaker 1>question is how much damage does Russia cause? Do they

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<v Speaker 1>feel they have to go overboard? And um, it could

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<v Speaker 1>lead to those crippling sanctions that we say that that

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<v Speaker 1>are going to happen again, the Germans are not going

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<v Speaker 1>to go with them, and the Chinese will still you know,

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<v Speaker 1>back to support them as well. Um. I just think

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<v Speaker 1>that the question is how much will be destroyed of

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukraine military, because that's really it would be no

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<v Speaker 1>match they have. They don't have the same capabilities over

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<v Speaker 1>some fifty thous and they've got all those other troops

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<v Speaker 1>that are there as well. They just don't have any

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<v Speaker 1>kind of capability. And again, these anti tank missiles and

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<v Speaker 1>the things we're sending is not gonna be enough to

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<v Speaker 1>stop them. They're they're the Russians are going to do

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<v Speaker 1>this by indirect fire. They're gonna fire missiles and artillery

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<v Speaker 1>into these built up is Flattenum, level them for a

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<v Speaker 1>few days and then a side role and I to

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<v Speaker 1>destroy anything that's left over. So just another book length question,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, condensed down into a minute or two. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>to what extent, in your opinion, is Vladimir Putin trying

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<v Speaker 1>to recapture the not only the ground but the glory

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<v Speaker 1>of the Soviet Empire? And to what extent is he

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<v Speaker 1>like Russian rulers through history, you know, fairly paranoid about

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<v Speaker 1>attacks from the west and the south, and he's just

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<v Speaker 1>trying to establish a buffer. I think he's not acting

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<v Speaker 1>like a Russian ruler. He's acting like a Soviet ruler.

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<v Speaker 1>He's not. It's and there's a difference. I mean, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Russia potentially would have been part of the

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<v Speaker 1>international community. Look at me Boris Yeltson and look at

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<v Speaker 1>the things that that they they've tried to do at

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<v Speaker 1>the end there with Glasnostin and Gorbacheff, and that was

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<v Speaker 1>more of a Russian ruler. He's much more ruthless. He's

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<v Speaker 1>more of a Soviet union leader that wants to bring

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<v Speaker 1>um as much damage down and fear as a tactic

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<v Speaker 1>in order to get things going. There's no karent and

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<v Speaker 1>stick with Vladimir Putin. I think the question is, um,

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<v Speaker 1>he wants America out of Europe, that's for sure, and

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<v Speaker 1>a little secret as we are. I mean, we took

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<v Speaker 1>three hundred thousand troops out in the nineties, but he

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't want any more influence in those NATO countries that

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<v Speaker 1>we have there, and I think I think that's um.

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<v Speaker 1>The question of whether he can get there with this

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<v Speaker 1>or not it remains to be seen. I saw a

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<v Speaker 1>good article from Fiona Hill that said, you know, he's

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<v Speaker 1>got us right where he wants us, and there's there's

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<v Speaker 1>some ways that's true. The question is again, he goes

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<v Speaker 1>in there with this destructive force, kills a lot of people,

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<v Speaker 1>destroys the Ukraine military, and then turns the United States

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<v Speaker 1>and say, now, what are you gonna do about it? Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>The frustrating thing to me is I watched this is

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<v Speaker 1>there's no well, not no. There are a few strong

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<v Speaker 1>intrinsic reasons why we are rivals with Vladimir Putin and

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<v Speaker 1>his his kleptocracy. I mean, it's not like China exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>He's not exactly a communist, a sort of one. But

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<v Speaker 1>why in the world there are we these huge adversaries

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<v Speaker 1>with Putin. Well, it's because Putin's a megalomaniac, I think, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>And he's got new crispins and they they he does

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<v Speaker 1>fancy himself as being, you know, a global leer. He

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<v Speaker 1>wants to exert global influence, especially in the region. It's

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<v Speaker 1>the same reason why the Chinese want us out of Asia, um,

0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:51.200
<v Speaker 1>Russia wants us out of Europe, and he wants to

0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:54.240
<v Speaker 1>have that sphere of influence over it. Um. You know,

0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:56.720
<v Speaker 1>I do think that at the end of the day, though,

0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:59.160
<v Speaker 1>if we get too bogged down in this and we

0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:01.600
<v Speaker 1>keep don't keep on the ball, that China still presents

0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.240
<v Speaker 1>the bigger problem because of their economy and because of

0:11:04.240 --> 0:11:07.280
<v Speaker 1>where their military capability is. And we couldn't make a

0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.360
<v Speaker 1>bullet to kill all the people. So you know, there's

0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:12.640
<v Speaker 1>just not you know that it's still a pretty large

0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:14.960
<v Speaker 1>distraction here, and I'm not sure we're gonna be able

0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:18.200
<v Speaker 1>to thread the needle on this in a way. Um

0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.000
<v Speaker 1>that's gonna that's gonna either say faced on our side,

0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.520
<v Speaker 1>on the Native side, doesn't. Some's put the alliance up

0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:26.760
<v Speaker 1>on some level. But I do think again that it's

0:11:26.760 --> 0:11:29.040
<v Speaker 1>going to be connectic and I think that that a

0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:31.200
<v Speaker 1>large part of that Ukraine military is going to get

0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:33.320
<v Speaker 1>destroyed because he's got the capability to do that. Well,

0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:35.080
<v Speaker 1>almost use up all our time before I ask my

0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:38.040
<v Speaker 1>big stupid question, which is is there any chance Russian

0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.760
<v Speaker 1>and China is working together that that Russia is gonna

0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.720
<v Speaker 1>move on Ukraine and China is gonna move on Taiwan.

0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:46.959
<v Speaker 1>I think the only way that happens is if it's

0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:50.120
<v Speaker 1>uh after the Olympics. The Chinese have got so much

0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:52.760
<v Speaker 1>focus there. He we Russia did that at the end

0:11:52.800 --> 0:11:55.839
<v Speaker 1>of the Socio Olympics. Literally the last day Olympics, he

0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:58.679
<v Speaker 1>moved on Crimea. I think that he's gonna least give

0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:00.920
<v Speaker 1>the Chinese that amount of time. It's gonna give two

0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:02.760
<v Speaker 1>or three more weeks for the ground to freeze so

0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.480
<v Speaker 1>the tanks don't sink and in the mud as they

0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:08.440
<v Speaker 1>roll across the country. But I got I think quick

0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:10.840
<v Speaker 1>incursion go in a lot of fires, a lot of

0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:13.080
<v Speaker 1>death and destruction. I'm not sure they're going to occupy,

0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:14.439
<v Speaker 1>but I don't think it's still gonna happen for a

0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:16.000
<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks because of the Olympics. So that's where

0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:19.400
<v Speaker 1>they're gonna work together, well, getting back here charming saying

0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.120
<v Speaker 1>about Bayonets. Something is going to happen. I hope we

0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.079
<v Speaker 1>can stay in touch. Military analysts, my clients always enlightening Mike,

0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:27.680
<v Speaker 1>thanks a million, Hey guys, good thanks for having me. Yeah.

0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:29.320
<v Speaker 1>If you want to follow the story, follow him on

0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.120
<v Speaker 1>Twitter because he he often has the very latest best

0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:35.400
<v Speaker 1>stuff going on there. I think they're just gonna roll

0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:37.560
<v Speaker 1>in take over Ukraine. The world's gonna say, damn it.

0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 1>Can you believe that? That's s sanctions? Strong statements? Strong statements.

0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.840
<v Speaker 1>So Putin has a mass to half a trillion dollars

0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.720
<v Speaker 1>of reserve money according to report out today. To be

0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.679
<v Speaker 1>able to weather sanctions half a trillion, he needs oil

0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.320
<v Speaker 1>to be forty dollars a barrel. To be able to

0:12:55.360 --> 0:12:57.640
<v Speaker 1>make a profit. It's twice that, and that's where they

0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:00.559
<v Speaker 1>get most of their revenue. So financially, a lot of

0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:02.960
<v Speaker 1>fakers think the sanctions just he's not scared of him

0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.400
<v Speaker 1>at all. Between oil and has saved up money. So

0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:07.480
<v Speaker 1>he's gonna roll and he's gonna take Ukraine in the

0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:09.320
<v Speaker 1>world's gonna go. God, can you believe he did that?

0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:14.880
<v Speaker 1>Damn it? Because he care? What a mean guy? Anyway,

0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.240
<v Speaker 1>have you seen have you seen the new season of

0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:18.840
<v Speaker 1>squid Game? And then we go back to other, you know,

0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:21.800
<v Speaker 1>whatever stuff we talk about. I think he nailed it. Yeah,

0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:22.320
<v Speaker 1>there you go.