Speaker 1: Check it down Man, No down Man, Thursday morning, October
Speaker 1: saying it's defeating the book podcast a megapho for week
Speaker 1: seven Live from the D, It's kill Alexander. Is this
Speaker 1: our last appearance at the D Mikey? Yeah, it's sort
Speaker 1: of better sweet after it all the time we've spent
Speaker 1: in this cathedral of our cand was your favorite memory
Speaker 1: from it? Well? I like Brent Mussberger talking about what
Speaker 1: happened in the nineteen seventies. I think people really enjoyed that.
Speaker 1: I mean, there was only one person complaining, and he
Speaker 1: happened to be on the pod as well. But Todd,
Speaker 1: what was your issue with that? I had no problem
Speaker 1: with it. It just when Mikey is so sycophantic. It
Speaker 1: reminded me of a certain situation in the news all
Speaker 1: the time. But the sycophantic questions were just a little
Speaker 1: too much for me, you know, you know, sitting at
Speaker 1: the at the stat I mean, I love it too.
Speaker 1: I like the reminiscing too. It's just when when the
Speaker 1: questions are asked in such a sycophantic nature, like saying
Speaker 1: sycophantic yes, you should have challenged him like you did
Speaker 1: Dr Bob last year. You should win right after Brent.
Speaker 1: Are you gonna be in? Are you gonna be polite
Speaker 1: to our guest today? By the way, it's Mike Palm,
Speaker 1: of course, the the vice president of operations here at
Speaker 1: Circus Sports Circle opening in five days. Are you under
Speaker 1: like lots of pressure? Uh? Well, there's so many moving parts.
Speaker 1: I mean it just there's a lot of things that
Speaker 1: still need to be done, Gail. Both from a construction side,
Speaker 1: from a technology side, from a staff training side, we're
Speaker 1: actually having our first play day today, um, where people
Speaker 1: are gonna come in and we're gonna put free slot
Speaker 1: play on a card. We're gonna give them fake money
Speaker 1: and fake chips and actually give them an experience. They're
Speaker 1: gonna eat in one of the restaurants. We had hoped
Speaker 1: the pool would be ready for today and won't be
Speaker 1: ready till the second play day Sunday, so their trial
Speaker 1: run will be right in the middle of an NFL
Speaker 1: Sunday as well as uh Game five of the World Series,
Speaker 1: so that we'll we'll get to really test We'll test
Speaker 1: the pool, and we'll test the sports book screens and
Speaker 1: all that uh to so, but we'll learn more as
Speaker 1: as as the Great Michael Lombardi says, you have to
Speaker 1: know what you don't know, and so today is is
Speaker 1: a lot about trying to find out what we don't know. UM.
Speaker 1: Last question about this the question the answer that everybody
Speaker 1: wants to know. When you say black tie for your
Speaker 1: opening Tuesday night, does that mean a bow tie or
Speaker 1: does that mean Hey, the tie has just gotta be black.
Speaker 1: That means that you must wear a black tuxedo with
Speaker 1: a black bow tie. I the bow tie is not
Speaker 1: gonna happen for me, man, They're gonna send me away.
Speaker 1: You go to get a tuxedo. Gil That's what Black
Speaker 1: Time Fashion Silast Debrah Song says. F them old schoolers,
Speaker 1: this is the way to go. Well, actually, what yeah?
Speaker 1: Can we bring in our guest Drew Dinsick for God's sake?
Speaker 1: So we've gone five minutes in ladies and gentlemen, and
Speaker 1: I'm so happy to have it on the show. Uh,
Speaker 1: he's the co host. I don't know if he's a
Speaker 1: lead host of co host, I don't know how we
Speaker 1: say it with his buddy, Andy Molitor of the Deep
Speaker 1: Dive podcast awesome podcast on not only football, but tennis
Speaker 1: and the NBA. Those are his go to sports. Drew dinsick, everybody, Drew,
Speaker 1: thank you. You were about to say that bow tie
Speaker 1: not necessary? Is that what I was about to hear? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I do a black tie in every year and I've
Speaker 1: worn like, if you have a nice black as long
Speaker 1: as it's like a nice black you know, necktie that
Speaker 1: that and with as long as it's with the rest
Speaker 1: of a tuxedo get up. That's totally kosher in the
Speaker 1: in the black tie world, and in l A at least,
Speaker 1: maybe not old Maybe Vegas is a little more classic,
Speaker 1: but you know that's that's pretty pretty kosher around my
Speaker 1: part of town. Smart man right there. Well, you have
Speaker 1: to understand Derek grew up in Gross Point, Michigan, so
Speaker 1: there's a little bit more of an old money field
Speaker 1: of black tie and what that means. So, uh, didn't
Speaker 1: mean to skip over. Todd Todd Wishne from his mother's attic.
Speaker 1: His mother is Cork Attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. How you doing, Yes,
Speaker 1: I'm doing great. You know, it's just great. Who is
Speaker 1: this guy? Who is this guy? All of a suddle day?
Speaker 1: What's wrong with you? It's been three weeks since I
Speaker 1: played tennis because of this damn hamstring injury and it's
Speaker 1: getting me really upset, and I'm I'm missing weather day
Speaker 1: after weather, day beautiful beautiful tennis. Weather has been like
Speaker 1: two rainy days and twenty beautiful days, and that's eighteen
Speaker 1: days of tennis I missed. If you're disappointing, right, that's
Speaker 1: that description is sufficient? All right? Uh, here's what we
Speaker 1: do for those turning into this podcast for the first time.
Speaker 1: We go through our three best bets. Actually we go
Speaker 1: the Thursday night game first. If it happens to be
Speaker 1: one of our best bets, then so be it, um
Speaker 1: and then each person in the end we'll have three
Speaker 1: best bets. We'll do the teaser of the week for everybody,
Speaker 1: which we're still killing the teasers, right, You guys are one.
Speaker 1: We were all five and one, five and one. Do
Speaker 1: you want to know the records too? In the regular record,
Speaker 1: please the courts stenographer Todd Wishnett, please tell us what
Speaker 1: our as sports stenographer I would like to say. Gilly
Speaker 1: Ice has made a huge comeback to get the seven
Speaker 1: ten and one A beautiful week last week with his
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins, which we may or may not saying later
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay as well, and only went down with Carolina
Speaker 1: minus one. By the way, we all had Carolina. Every
Speaker 1: time we all have somebody will ever wins. You just
Speaker 1: fade that right away. Mikey had a poor week. He
Speaker 1: doesn't usually have too many poor weeks. He had a
Speaker 1: one and two, not very good with that Houston Texans.
Speaker 1: He's probably kicking himself right now because of Romeo Cornell
Speaker 1: and two point conversions and not two point conversions and
Speaker 1: all kinds of shenanigans. And then I had a bad
Speaker 1: week as well, a one and two with Carolina. My
Speaker 1: over in the Steelers game didn't get there, But then
Speaker 1: I did have Arizona. So seven eleven for me, Mikey
Speaker 1: ten seven and one in you guilt tes seven ten
Speaker 1: and one, Drew then at zero and zero with a
Speaker 1: zero and zero's direct. So I'm a half game better
Speaker 1: than Utah, is what I'm hearing. You're not now, You're
Speaker 1: you're a yeah, a half game, that's correct, I thought
Speaker 1: I heard. Okay, uh, let us start with Drew for well,
Speaker 1: let's start with Thursday night football tonight, Philadelphia four and
Speaker 1: a half point favorites hosting the New York Giants. Not
Speaker 1: exactly a barn Burner from a fans standpoint, but perhaps
Speaker 1: some betting value. Drew was kind enough to come on
Speaker 1: a numbers game at Visa earlier in the week. Uh,
Speaker 1: and so I know what's coming here, and you've kind
Speaker 1: of convinced me, Drew where you're very logical diet tribe
Speaker 1: about this game. This is one of your best bets, right. Yeah, absolutely,
Speaker 1: I think Philadelphia is the side here. Um. I got
Speaker 1: in earlier at five and a half and was absolutely
Speaker 1: agog when it went from six and a half to
Speaker 1: three and a half on the news that Miles Standards
Speaker 1: and Zach Ertz weren't going to be playing, which again,
Speaker 1: this is something that anyone who watched the Philly Baltimore
Speaker 1: game knew. You know, those guys clearly went out and
Speaker 1: it wasn't you know, tiki tack injuries. Those were you know,
Speaker 1: real problems, and so the fact that you know they
Speaker 1: get confirmed out and the line drifted, you know, moved
Speaker 1: that much was shocking. Um got more down at three
Speaker 1: and a half, it's now back up to four and
Speaker 1: a half. I realistically, Um, this is kind of one
Speaker 1: of the only angles that I play when I played
Speaker 1: Thursday night football. Um, you have a rookie head coach
Speaker 1: and Joe Judge. It is extremely difficult for coaches who
Speaker 1: have not been in this situation before to realize how
Speaker 1: much work they need to put in the week before
Speaker 1: so that they can implement all of the wrinkles and
Speaker 1: all of the nuance that you need to have a
Speaker 1: game specific game plan in place for a Thursday night opponent.
Speaker 1: And Doug Peterson has mastered this. He has done extremely
Speaker 1: well on Thursday Night football the last handful of years,
Speaker 1: and he is now coming to you to really to me,
Speaker 1: the fact that he held Lane Johnson out of that
Speaker 1: Baltimore game, Uh, the fact that they held Sean Jackson
Speaker 1: out of that Baltimore game reflected a little bit of gamesmanship, Like, Okay,
Speaker 1: we know that this Giants game is a lot more
Speaker 1: important in terms of our overall potential to make the
Speaker 1: playoffs this season than this Baltimore game, where we're you know,
Speaker 1: going to be you know, double digit underdogs. So let's
Speaker 1: save up our bullets a little bit and be ready
Speaker 1: for this Giants and take it to them. So I
Speaker 1: think this sets up very well for the Eagles to
Speaker 1: kind of right the ship, get right, so to speak,
Speaker 1: and really set the stage for a run as I
Speaker 1: personally think that they, you know, will win the NFC.
Speaker 1: He's comfortably given all the injuries to the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1: We calling it your number one, your number two, or
Speaker 1: number three, best bet just for a bookkeeper, probably number three,
Speaker 1: number three. It's my number three as well. What's the
Speaker 1: number officially four and a half now four and a half, uh,
Speaker 1: and it's it's exactly what Drew said. Lane Johnson and
Speaker 1: DeShawn Jackson mean more than Zach Ertz and Miles Sanders.
Speaker 1: Lane john there are Lane Johnson's stats. How often do
Speaker 1: you hear about an offensive lineman in the NFL where
Speaker 1: the Eagles are just unbelievable, unbelievably better a t S
Speaker 1: with him than without him? And DeShawn Jackson. I can
Speaker 1: say this as a fan of the Washington football team.
Speaker 1: We all we never really could figure out the chicken
Speaker 1: and the egg when Kirk Cousins played for the for
Speaker 1: the Skins. Was it DeShawn spreading the field that allowed
Speaker 1: for Jordan Reed to have such success underneath for Cousins
Speaker 1: or was Cousins, you know, the the impetus for all
Speaker 1: of it. And I think, after all these years. I
Speaker 1: think it was DeShawn That's not crazy, that's really not
Speaker 1: and he doesn't he doesn't. He you can't count on
Speaker 1: him for a full season anymore. But when he is
Speaker 1: healthy and he's on the field, he's a game changer. Um.
Speaker 1: I'm very prepared for them to go over the top
Speaker 1: to him early and often. This one really test trying
Speaker 1: to take the top off the Giants defense. And realistically,
Speaker 1: the Giants have only looked competent defensively when they've gone
Speaker 1: up against teams that can't pass deep. You know, they
Speaker 1: had a decent performance against the Rams, but it was
Speaker 1: mostly because the Rams were just trying this short, you know,
Speaker 1: average depth of target stuff, and that's what that's the
Speaker 1: only thing that the Giants can reasonably cover in the
Speaker 1: passing game. So if if you know, if we have
Speaker 1: reasonably competent offensive line play tonight and Lane Jackson, you know,
Speaker 1: like Lane Johnson being back is a huge part of that.
Speaker 1: I think Carson Wentz picks this team apart and really,
Speaker 1: you know, shows out tonight. I like it so much,
Speaker 1: Mikey that I'm putting in my circum millions picks earlier
Speaker 1: to include Philadelphia. How about that. Wait, is that your
Speaker 1: three one or two gil three? Really? Yeah, that's strong,
Speaker 1: because you know time is very important with COVID this year,
Speaker 1: yourself into all five picks, forty eight hours of COVID
Speaker 1: prayers is what I'm gonna be st what's your current
Speaker 1: point standing right now in the circumanion? I am. I'll
Speaker 1: tell you again. I'll give you the exact trajectory week
Speaker 1: by week one, three and one, two and three, two
Speaker 1: and three, three and two, four and one, three and two.
Speaker 1: So where was that? I see that the one person
Speaker 1: has the top three spots. One guy has three entries,
Speaker 1: is first, second and died for third. Amazing, it is amazing, amazing. Well,
Speaker 1: he just hasn't been doing much variance in his picks.
Speaker 1: And then if he gets all the way to the end,
Speaker 1: he's gonna be able to do all kinds of ship
Speaker 1: and again, which is what which is what I planned
Speaker 1: to do with my two entries. But you see how
Speaker 1: that's going. But just to give you an idea, like
Speaker 1: seven and three, I am in this this current quarterly,
Speaker 1: I got no chance. I mean yeah, I mean I
Speaker 1: don't know. Well, the first week, a hundred ninety seven
Speaker 1: people went five and oh and week five, right, the
Speaker 1: first week of the quarter, like my record? All right,
Speaker 1: so that's pick number three for both. Do you Todd,
Speaker 1: have any thoughts on tonight's game before we get off
Speaker 1: Thursday night? Not? Not really. You know, I don't really
Speaker 1: like this game. You know, the Giants, you know, Riverboat Ron.
Speaker 1: I'm still I'm still upset about Riverboat Run. I had
Speaker 1: over thirty nine and a half on the end game,
Speaker 1: and as the Redskins are driving down, I'm thinking, is
Speaker 1: Riverboat Ron gonna do something stupid and go for two here?
Speaker 1: And it's in the back of my head all the
Speaker 1: way down, but I'm like, well, they won't get it
Speaker 1: in anyway, so I don't even have to worry about it.
Speaker 1: Gets it in, gets it in. And then I see
Speaker 1: them panning to him because I've got the I have
Speaker 1: the eight box direct TV on, so I'm not listening,
Speaker 1: but i can see they're looking at him, and I'm thinking, oh, no, please,
Speaker 1: Riverboat please, no, no to please? Yeah. Yeah, Well, how
Speaker 1: much let me ask you this, how much of that
Speaker 1: is the fact that his nickname is Riverboat Run, that
Speaker 1: he felt the need to live up to it, like
Speaker 1: if his name was tugboat Ron right like people might
Speaker 1: not have done it, but Ron, Yeah, I would have
Speaker 1: been happy to rename him during the drive. I would
Speaker 1: just Conservative Justice Amy Coney Ron, That's what I would
Speaker 1: have called him, Mr Conservative. Not gambling at all, no gambling.
Speaker 1: Do you like Do you like my Merrick Garland come
Speaker 1: back last week? Did you like that? That was? That? Was?
Speaker 1: That was? I love? Mike going, Oh yes, Oh, it's
Speaker 1: so fantastic Notre Dame. We have such an incredible pride
Speaker 1: from Notre Day. We're golden domers and we love it
Speaker 1: and we love controlling the Supreme Court with seven Catholics.
Speaker 1: Thank you well, your buddy Raj Body had had to
Speaker 1: put a little tweet out there about how we were
Speaker 1: we were we were we were masking our anti feminist
Speaker 1: feminism in and some pride of Notre Dame and Brent
Speaker 1: and I rehearsed all of it, which is not true.
Speaker 1: It is a prideful thing for Notre Dame, no matter
Speaker 1: what her politics are, and the mid fifties were indeed
Speaker 1: a golden era. Okay, did you did you have anything
Speaker 1: on Thursday night football? I love the Eagles here, I
Speaker 1: really do. But you know, Doug eep is so bad
Speaker 1: with field goals. I mean, the guy is the worst
Speaker 1: of all time. I wish this game was a three.
Speaker 1: I'd lay three. I could have lud them in a
Speaker 1: money line parley if I was going to do something.
Speaker 1: I think the Giants are really bad. I think Danny
Speaker 1: Dimes sucks. I mean people thought, oh oh they were
Speaker 1: good against the Dallas defend. The Dallas defense is one
Speaker 1: of the worst of all time. He wasn't great against him.
Speaker 1: I mean they make bad quarterbacks look average. They had
Speaker 1: so many chances to win that game. I mean I
Speaker 1: thought he looked He's not good. He's not good at all. Uh.
Speaker 1: And so I mean I don't know. The Giants still
Speaker 1: were in a game against Washington. They only had a
Speaker 1: hundred passing yards and they I mean, the Giants are
Speaker 1: not good. The Eagles are the best team in the East. Okay,
Speaker 1: they're gonna win the East. Uh. But it's the best
Speaker 1: hotel downtown. It's different. Okay, these hotels I don't all
Speaker 1: lose money. Okay, every team in the East has a
Speaker 1: losing record. Todd Town, you came out here with zero energy,
Speaker 1: so I didn't know you were joking. Uh. I'd like to.
Speaker 1: I'd like to not use the pick though on this,
Speaker 1: but I do like the Eagles. I love all right,
Speaker 1: let's go to the best bets. By the way, Drew
Speaker 1: not only with a deep dive podcast, but I sold
Speaker 1: him short also stuff for Rotal World, writes for points
Speaker 1: spread weekly at Visa for goodness sake, which is a
Speaker 1: huge kit for Visa. I love it when he dissects
Speaker 1: the quadrants of a tennis draw. That's the best bet.
Speaker 1: By the way, you better not be joking, because that's
Speaker 1: like the love it. Yeah, I love it, by the way,
Speaker 1: speaking it's the way if you guys are betting this
Speaker 1: in game tennis. I was watching the tennis yesterday with
Speaker 1: with Draft Kings fan Duel and Bookmaker's lines up at
Speaker 1: the same time. Gil. It is unbelievable differences. It's incredible.
Speaker 1: I mean, somebody like you who loves the tennis, you
Speaker 1: would feast. You would absolutely feast. I mean there, I
Speaker 1: was watching that Zverev against um I forget who he
Speaker 1: was going against, Vereev guy, and he was like, it
Speaker 1: was ridiculous. I think Todd, well, I don't know all
Speaker 1: the tennis names. I know Shapabalov, but uh, you got today.
Speaker 1: It was ugly. Yeah, right, Simon took him down the streets.
Speaker 1: But yeah, this very match was wild yesterday he be
Speaker 1: yeah yeah, big old Noman in the first set, then
Speaker 1: dropped six three it looked like he was going to
Speaker 1: lose the match, and then came back at one sixth three,
Speaker 1: So that was that was a weird one. But if
Speaker 1: you drew, if you're into it, and you bet, if
Speaker 1: you look at these lines, like at the exact same time, Fandel,
Speaker 1: Draft Kings and Bookmaker at the same it's incredible. The
Speaker 1: difference is incredible. Did you did you try? And is?
Speaker 1: Are they don't spinning circle you to death with Vandel?
Speaker 1: Actually they don't. Fandel it's like a five seconds and
Speaker 1: it has a countdown, so it's not like William Hill
Speaker 1: where it just spins forever and you have no idea
Speaker 1: when you're gonna get it. Fandel has like a counter
Speaker 1: time down, so you know exactly when you get it.
Speaker 1: And then the DraftKings has a spinner, but it's a
Speaker 1: quick spinner. It's not like a spin for the rest
Speaker 1: of your life and try to screw you cut type
Speaker 1: of spinner. It's just a quick spinner. And then you're
Speaker 1: in and then Bookmaker. You know Bookmaker, it's fast. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I saw your buddy Crack wrote an article about the
Speaker 1: new William Hill app in the spin to deal with this.
Speaker 1: Did you read that article? Uh? No, but I've heard
Speaker 1: about the fallout from it. But here's the thing. It's
Speaker 1: actually better to me because in the old app, the
Speaker 1: original version, it would spin and you didn't know whether
Speaker 1: it would get rejected or not when it went into
Speaker 1: the spin mode, right, it may eventually approve it, or
Speaker 1: it may reject it. You might have to wait ninety
Speaker 1: seconds or two minutes. Not a good thing. This one.
Speaker 1: As soon as it spins, you know you're not getting
Speaker 1: it in and you have to shut off your phone,
Speaker 1: turn it back on and replace the bet. But at
Speaker 1: least you know you're not getting it in before you
Speaker 1: were caught and you couldn't cancel it either. Better better
Speaker 1: to be horribly egregious than but but as a better
Speaker 1: to me, and I'm betting in game on all this,
Speaker 1: you know in soccer especially, and the lines moving, the
Speaker 1: total is moving, the juice on it. At least I
Speaker 1: know I know right away it's not getting in. Instead
Speaker 1: of waiting two minutes and by the time I get
Speaker 1: it back in, it's moved fifteen cents. You know, there's
Speaker 1: a there's some of these two where you it spins
Speaker 1: you and it accepts them, and you don't know it's
Speaker 1: spinning and you don't know that it's accepted them. That's
Speaker 1: the worst of all two or three tops. Anyway, that's
Speaker 1: another de incentivizes anyone who knows what they're doing from
Speaker 1: doing it. That's right, well said, all right, Drew number
Speaker 1: one for you this week? Man, Okay, I've gone I've
Speaker 1: gone back and forth on what my favorite look of
Speaker 1: the card is, and I've landed on an under in
Speaker 1: today's NFL, my number one, number one edge on the
Speaker 1: card and under in today's NFL. And it is in
Speaker 1: division at least, and it is fifty six points, which
Speaker 1: is a lot. Uh And it is the Seahawks in
Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals under fifty six. There's a couple angles
Speaker 1: of player number one after that Cardinals Dallas Cowboys game.
Speaker 1: I realistically, you know, kind of going back through and
Speaker 1: figuring out what happened there. Um. I made two adjustments
Speaker 1: to the Cardinals. I adjusted their past defense up and
Speaker 1: I adjusted their offense in total that was a very
Speaker 1: very very misleading final score given that you know, three
Speaker 1: touchdowns were you know, eighty plus the yarders and are
Speaker 1: not eight not all three were eighty yarders, but you
Speaker 1: know they had three broken players. And I hang that
Speaker 1: entirely on you know, poor execution by the Dallas defense,
Speaker 1: not what you know, the scheme they came up with
Speaker 1: for the Arizona Cardinals. This Arizona Cardinals offense is legitimately
Speaker 1: a bottom five offense in the NFL. In my opinion,
Speaker 1: what Kyler Murray is doing in the passing game is
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's not uh, you know, good enough
Speaker 1: to go toe to toe with the Seahawks, even the
Speaker 1: Seahawks defense, which is underwhelmed to this point in the season. Um,
Speaker 1: he's making plays with his legs to extend drives. But
Speaker 1: you know it's it's not, um, it's not an effective
Speaker 1: way in my opinion, at least to go toe to
Speaker 1: toe with the Seahawks. So, uh, Seahawks defense coming off
Speaker 1: of extra rest, obviously they're coming in off thereby. Uh,
Speaker 1: they've underwhelmed this season, but a lot of that has
Speaker 1: been injury related. To my opinion, they're gonna have a
Speaker 1: full complement of their secondary back in this one. Uh,
Speaker 1: A healthy Jamal Adams on the field, by the way
Speaker 1: that Bobby Wagner and KG Right have been playing so
Speaker 1: far this season, all of it to me spells, um,
Speaker 1: you know, a solid defensive performance here by the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: And you know, we've seen this in the past to
Speaker 1: where a team that was rolling through the season white hot,
Speaker 1: can't lose, everything is going their way, gets an early
Speaker 1: by and it cools them off a little bit. And
Speaker 1: I can entirely see that playing into this way the
Speaker 1: Seahawks offense comes into this one. Um. You know, it's
Speaker 1: difficult to when you when everything is going your way
Speaker 1: and you're winning, and you have a week off, it
Speaker 1: is difficult to come back into work that next week
Speaker 1: and grind the same way you were before you got
Speaker 1: your you know, your week of vacation. Uh. And I
Speaker 1: think that you could see a little bit of rust,
Speaker 1: a little bit of of you know, a little bit
Speaker 1: of um just a little a little tougher, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: less ease. So to speak of how the Seahawks have
Speaker 1: been moving the ball and scoring points in this one.
Speaker 1: On top of the fact that now with a full
Speaker 1: complement of of secondary players the Arizona Cardinals secondary, I
Speaker 1: do believe it warrants an upgrade UM. Their coverage was
Speaker 1: very against that wide receiving corps from Dallas. Most people
Speaker 1: will focus on the fact that the blitzes and the
Speaker 1: sacks and the Andy Dalton performance was pathetic, but uh,
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of that was borne out of
Speaker 1: excellent coverage by the by the Cardinal secondary. So this
Speaker 1: sets up perfectly for UM twenty four to ten type
Speaker 1: of contests. And so fifty six points I think is
Speaker 1: laughably high. It's taken me a while to get to
Speaker 1: this point that this is my favorite player of the week,
Speaker 1: but I just I really can't crack this any other
Speaker 1: way and see that this is going to be a shootout,
Speaker 1: one of the one of the I don't think we
Speaker 1: emphasize this enough when we talk about the NFL from
Speaker 1: week to week, whether it's on a podcast, whether it's
Speaker 1: a radio, whatever, how we we look at the result
Speaker 1: thirty eight to ten, and even though we watched the game,
Speaker 1: we don't take a beat to recognize if Zeke Elliott
Speaker 1: doesn't fumble those two balls, this entire game is different.
Speaker 1: And so it isn't coming upon us as handicappers to
Speaker 1: like to be honest about things like that. I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna say. Sometimes still, you know, it's sometimes it's one
Speaker 1: play like Cooper Cup and the third down in goal
Speaker 1: for the for the Rams, if he catches that ball,
Speaker 1: which he catches out of a hundred, it's a completely
Speaker 1: different game. For the over under, it's a completely different
Speaker 1: game for the points bread. Sometimes it's one play. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And so I'm again, I'm not gonna say the Cowboys
Speaker 1: would have won. Maybe they would have, maybe they wouldn't have.
Speaker 1: But but thirty eight to ten it was. It should
Speaker 1: not have been by the way that Kenyan Drake rushed
Speaker 1: to the house with under two minutes left. For those
Speaker 1: of us who had in game over totals like a
Speaker 1: forty five and a half forty six and a half,
Speaker 1: was one of the more surreal things I've ever witnessed. Ever,
Speaker 1: was like, Oh my God, is this happening. I only
Speaker 1: remember it happening two other times, one time in a
Speaker 1: Baltimore Cowboys game where it happened multiple times in the
Speaker 1: last minute. I can't remember it almost ever happening. It's
Speaker 1: like it was unbelievable what are you talking about, Todd?
Speaker 1: In the in the second week of the year, Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay was trying to run out the clock and broke
Speaker 1: the fifty yard or cover that that cost. To me, Okay,
Speaker 1: it happened this year. You're right, Mike Dallas was live
Speaker 1: for a defensive touchdown. I mean, the Arizona could have
Speaker 1: scored a defensive touchdown any time in that last four
Speaker 1: minutes too, so they were that that thing had left
Speaker 1: till the very end. Um, Mikey number one for you, sir. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'd like to make this comment about Drew's pick, you know,
Speaker 1: to what he said about his evaluation of the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: You know, I gave out the Cardinals on Thursday here
Speaker 1: on Visa. On Friday, I bet him laying one and
Speaker 1: a half. I bet him I laid one. I took
Speaker 1: him at a pick on Monday, and and I and
Speaker 1: I tremendously downgrade them after watching that game, which they
Speaker 1: easily come. Seriously, I mean, what does Kyler Murray? I mean,
Speaker 1: the first quarter and a half was pathetic, Drew and
Speaker 1: Drew and I talked about this on radio the other day.
Speaker 1: Take three teams now another Dolphins have actually made a
Speaker 1: quarterback change. But Dolphins, Cardinals, Bills three above football teams.
Speaker 1: They're play on offense is clearly the quarterback just running.
Speaker 1: I I thought Clint Cliff Kingsbury, they looked like they
Speaker 1: were ill prepared coming into that game, that the receivers
Speaker 1: were running the wrong routes, or Murray didn't know where
Speaker 1: he was throwing the ball. They did, they couldn't move,
Speaker 1: they couldn't convert third downs until he scrambled on third
Speaker 1: and twelve or whatever, and they finally and finally picked
Speaker 1: one up. But I was not impressed with their offense
Speaker 1: in the least on Monday Night. And then you know
Speaker 1: they scored what four straight touchdowns that's what got them
Speaker 1: all their points until that run to the end. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go with the Gate team I bet against last week.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Bears in six on Monday Night
Speaker 1: against the Rams. Listen to this defense is better than
Speaker 1: we think. And I continue to and I continue to
Speaker 1: it continues to get flattered how well the defense has played. Really.
Speaker 1: I mean, um, yes, Stafford moved the ball on him
Speaker 1: early in Week one and got and got that big lead. Um,
Speaker 1: but look what they did with Brady. I mean, there
Speaker 1: were some self inflicted injuries on Thursday night, but they
Speaker 1: but they held Brady down as as well as anybody did.
Speaker 1: And they went in there and they made Bridgewater look
Speaker 1: all out of rhythm the whole day, that that Caroline
Speaker 1: offense couldn't run the ball, they couldn't get the play
Speaker 1: action passing game going. They look very well and Nick
Speaker 1: Foles makes enough plays to make this team competitive. And uh,
Speaker 1: you know, it was another uninspiring performance by the Rams.
Speaker 1: They've made their bones by beating up on the Giants
Speaker 1: and uh and and Washington. So look, I think the
Speaker 1: Bears are the better team. I know they have to
Speaker 1: go to l A, but I think this game is
Speaker 1: certainly stays within a touchdown and I think the Bears
Speaker 1: are live to win it. So I'm gonna take the
Speaker 1: six on Monday Night, all right, Mike, he's first picked
Speaker 1: the Bears plus the points Monday night? Uh plus six? Yes,
Speaker 1: plus six in census. There todd number one for you, sir.
Speaker 1: Before I give you my number one, I'd like to
Speaker 1: get an opinion from the three experts here that we
Speaker 1: have Michael Palm, Dr. Gil Alexander and Drew who sounds
Speaker 1: extremely articulate. I'd like to know what you guys. Have
Speaker 1: you ever heard him before? Todd? Have you ever why? No,
Speaker 1: I was a compliment. I've never heard him before. Right,
Speaker 1: that's what you gave away that you've never listened a boy.
Speaker 1: This guy sounds articulate, sounds. That's what's my fault that
Speaker 1: I haven't listened to every podcast in the world. I mean,
Speaker 1: come on, the guy, he's not feasting, he's not following
Speaker 1: the money goes on Guil Show all the time. Now,
Speaker 1: I mean, this is not like he's just person trying
Speaker 1: to give you a compliment. But Mike has to turn
Speaker 1: everything negative. It's a Mikey thing. What will can I
Speaker 1: tell you? Anywhile Gil gives us a day ahead of
Speaker 1: time who the guests is gonna be. Maybe if you're
Speaker 1: not heard of him, you'd go look him up, do
Speaker 1: some research, watch some of his work. Have to make
Speaker 1: any picks on whether Drew's a good guest or not. Mikey,
Speaker 1: I got enough research to do. Okay, give me a break.
Speaker 1: I'm watching freaking a Polo bear Cheva soccer here in
Speaker 1: the meantime, under under rapidly and Arsenal scoreless and half.
Speaker 1: We're looking good under two and a half plus one fifteen.
Speaker 1: Now we're getting into a middling position soon. By the way,
Speaker 1: another you're another person who would freaking love the Draft
Speaker 1: Kings and the fantal soccer. But anyways, um my, my
Speaker 1: question is this last week I thought Denver was gonna
Speaker 1: have a hard time scoring against New England. They actually
Speaker 1: moved the ball a little bit better than than you
Speaker 1: would think, but I thought Belichick would be able to,
Speaker 1: you know, game plan up on Drew Lock, who I
Speaker 1: still do not believe is any good. So it was
Speaker 1: there was team total eighteen and a half minus one
Speaker 1: thirty seven available, and there was team total minus under
Speaker 1: seventeen and a half minus one ten available. I didn't
Speaker 1: want to pay up twenty seven extra cents to get
Speaker 1: the under eighteen and a half, so I went with
Speaker 1: the seventeen and a half. And of course, because am
Speaker 1: hates me, of course it has to land on eighteen,
Speaker 1: the most uncommon possible number in the history of football.
Speaker 1: My question is, had I been a person who has
Speaker 1: him doesn't hate, do you think that was the correct
Speaker 1: move to not pay the extra twenty seven cents for eighteen?
Speaker 1: Can I just tell Drew once again, Hashem is the
Speaker 1: Hebrew for the name which the Orthodox Jews, which todd
Speaker 1: you to be one of call God. And so he
Speaker 1: believes a sham hates him. For everybody that makes sense jeseus. Yeah,
Speaker 1: some people have a different term for him. So the
Speaker 1: question was, I don't I don't. I am an advocate
Speaker 1: of always, always, always sell. I'm never I'm never buying
Speaker 1: points in pretty much anything. I mean, if you do,
Speaker 1: you think, if you do the numbers, it's it's almost
Speaker 1: there's almost always a player tax buying and and and
Speaker 1: so the vice versus is true. There's a little bit less.
Speaker 1: You take a little big away in my opinion, if
Speaker 1: you sell. So I wasn't one second, let me let
Speaker 1: me make this player. Yeah, I wasn't buying the eighteen.
Speaker 1: It was done two different sites, so I wasn't necessarily
Speaker 1: paying up on the buy. But I just thought twenty
Speaker 1: seven cents for the A team was too much. It
Speaker 1: is insane. Yeah, I would add to what Drew say.
Speaker 1: I think Drew is good at this too. It's not
Speaker 1: like eighteen is a key number either, right, that was
Speaker 1: my point, Yeah, right, yeah, it's I thought there could
Speaker 1: have been there could have been an older Hebrew parable
Speaker 1: and this that you could have gotten visited by a
Speaker 1: demon and he would have been like, the Denver Broncos
Speaker 1: aren't going to score any touchdowns in the games. And
Speaker 1: I will let you bet the money line for even
Speaker 1: money on the New England Patriots. How much would you
Speaker 1: have had on the Patriots? Because six field goals and
Speaker 1: they beat the Patriots. That was the by far, the
Speaker 1: most bizarre outcome of last week. And realistically, I can't
Speaker 1: look at the Patriots Niners game and make any sense
Speaker 1: out of it this week because I just don't know
Speaker 1: who the Patriots are. How do you perform that way?
Speaker 1: It was? That was that was a very strange, strange
Speaker 1: six field goals for the Broncos on their first six drives,
Speaker 1: never scored again, and then I could I could see
Speaker 1: it coming. When it got to nine, I'm thinking, oh, please, please, no, please,
Speaker 1: any number of all the weird things that happened last
Speaker 1: week with Romeo Cornell going for two, up seven, um
Speaker 1: Ron Rivera trying to go for the win. How about
Speaker 1: the Broncos up eighteen to nine, all of a sudden
Speaker 1: deciding you know, we're gonna start heaving the ball down field?
Speaker 1: Now it's just you guys are up eighteen to nine,
Speaker 1: You're not down eighteen to nine. It was Vic Fangio.
Speaker 1: You love Vin. He's the best, that guy, I'll tell you. Anyways,
Speaker 1: my best pick, sorry for digressing so much, but my
Speaker 1: my best pick of the week. I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers. I went to the well last week.
Speaker 1: I should have listened to the Brent must Burger who
Speaker 1: was warning me not to do it. He said the
Speaker 1: Bears defense was too good. That being said, let's let's
Speaker 1: be honest. Though Carolina gave him a touchdown the beginning
Speaker 1: of the game by throwing an interception at the ten
Speaker 1: yard line, there are many iterations of that football game
Speaker 1: where it's a toss up game, and even even so,
Speaker 1: it was a toss up game. So I don't think
Speaker 1: it was such a horrible pick that all three of
Speaker 1: us like Carolina, but we should have listened to Brent
Speaker 1: and uh whatever. Anyways, this week, I like Carolina seven
Speaker 1: and a half points against a team like New Orleans.
Speaker 1: I do not think New Orleans is elite anymore. I
Speaker 1: think they're still a very good team. I just don't
Speaker 1: think they're elite and I think Carolina is the kind
Speaker 1: of average football to team. Throw it into a big,
Speaker 1: you know, bucket, and you don't want to be laying
Speaker 1: seven and a half points when you've got a team
Speaker 1: that's above average against the maybe a slightly above average team. Right,
Speaker 1: plus seven and a half. That's a lot of point.
Speaker 1: New Orleans defense isn't that good? New Orleans has given
Speaker 1: up a lot of points this year. Um, So I
Speaker 1: don't like, you know, I like taking points against teams
Speaker 1: that may give up back door touchdowns at the end.
Speaker 1: I mean New Orleans gave up thirty four to Vegas,
Speaker 1: They gave up thirty seven to Green Bay. They even
Speaker 1: gave up twenty nine to Detroit, gave up twenty seven
Speaker 1: to to Herbert. So you know, if Teddy two gloves
Speaker 1: can get me to twenty four, they could lose thirty
Speaker 1: one and I still win. So let me have Carolina
Speaker 1: Panthers plus seven and a half. Let him have it,
Speaker 1: Carolina plus seven and a half. My number one pick
Speaker 1: of the week is, uh, Pittsburgh Steelers wow in a battle.
Speaker 1: By the way, Pittsburgh now a dog in this game. Uh.
Speaker 1: This happened last night. I went in to do primetime action.
Speaker 1: I was like, oh, look, Pittsburg's two point favor and
Speaker 1: then by the time the show was over, Pittsburgh was
Speaker 1: an underdog. This is the weirdest thing. I don't know
Speaker 1: if you've noticed this this year more than others drew
Speaker 1: where we know about injury news in advance, like we
Speaker 1: knew Devin Bush was on a donezo, and then when
Speaker 1: it becomes official, all of a sudden, people act like
Speaker 1: they this was was breaking news. And the line just
Speaker 1: tears the other way. And what's interesting to me, and
Speaker 1: this is no one's talking about the fact that Taylor
Speaker 1: Lewin of the of the Titans is not going to
Speaker 1: be available, so that that's big to me. Um. So
Speaker 1: does it scare you that they just had their best
Speaker 1: performance of the year winning thirty seven? Does that scare
Speaker 1: you at all? It does not, because this is a
Speaker 1: battle of undefeated and I don't think they need extra
Speaker 1: motivation for this. Does it scare you at all that
Speaker 1: they have the Ravens on deck? Yes, that scares me more.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you though, what what what puts me at ease?
Speaker 1: Though not only the Luan injury. Tennessee Titans and I
Speaker 1: love the Titans, and I don't want to be I
Speaker 1: don't want to make the mistake of last postseason when
Speaker 1: they beat the Patriots and they beat the Ravens by
Speaker 1: the way, I was on the Titans in those games,
Speaker 1: so I wasn't one of these people who underestimated them.
Speaker 1: But this year the Titans have four of their five
Speaker 1: wins by six points or fewer. Probably shouldn't have one
Speaker 1: last week against the Texans. We can get into whether
Speaker 1: people thought Romeo Cornell was crazy or not for going
Speaker 1: for to I thought he was um, But they leave
Speaker 1: the door open in Tennessee wins that Tennessee has had
Speaker 1: a lot of close calls this year. I just think
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is one of the few teams in the NFL
Speaker 1: this year where we can legitimately say this is a
Speaker 1: pretty balanced football team. Their offense and they're finding weapons
Speaker 1: all the time. No one drafts wide receivers better than
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers. H Chase Claypool getting it done now
Speaker 1: along with uh with Juju. I think they've they're solid
Speaker 1: balanced offense, and I think their defense, and in a
Speaker 1: league where we can't say this about many teams, they've
Speaker 1: got a solid defense getting plus one and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Pittsburgh Steelers. I like them this week.
Speaker 1: That's my number one pick. My number ones have done
Speaker 1: sucky too. Let me just point that out. But you're
Speaker 1: on you're on a hot street. Gil, you started off
Speaker 1: very poorly and it's been hot lately. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: I'm afraid train Todd Wishnepp. Buyer, beware, buyer, beware, be careful.
Speaker 1: All right, number two, Drew, what's your number two pick?
Speaker 1: So I'll stay on that game and I'll comment real
Speaker 1: quickly on the injury stuff because I've noticed it. Two.
Speaker 1: We talked about it in the Giants game, the Philadelphia
Speaker 1: Giants game, and the Devin Bush one was especially crazy
Speaker 1: because again, anyone who followed that game or read even
Speaker 1: read the recap like it was mentioned, you know, he
Speaker 1: cleared pretty clearly towards a c L on that one
Speaker 1: and uh and was going to be unavailable, So that
Speaker 1: was surprising. There's probably someone out there who's got some
Speaker 1: sort of algorithmic betting going on. When an injury hits
Speaker 1: the don Best screen, they just paint the board knowing
Speaker 1: that it's going to move uh, and they're trying to
Speaker 1: capture some sort of UM, you know, little little incremental
Speaker 1: value just knowing that the you know that once it
Speaker 1: hits the screen, it's gonna you know, it's gonna the
Speaker 1: number is gonna move or something like that. But because
Speaker 1: I agree with you, like you saw two weird moves
Speaker 1: in that game last night or really yesterday all day,
Speaker 1: somebody very confident in the under and somebody very sure
Speaker 1: that the Titans should be favorite in that. And so
Speaker 1: the two combined is basically saying that somehow the market
Speaker 1: is underrating the Titans defense, and that is crazy to me.
Speaker 1: I really really think this is the least impactful unit
Speaker 1: on the field out of the four UM and you know,
Speaker 1: in today's NFL where especially in the regular season handicapping,
Speaker 1: I upweight offense significantly in terms of coming up with
Speaker 1: a number relative to defense UM and Tennessee is my
Speaker 1: number one offense right now. Pittsburgh is my number seven
Speaker 1: offense in the NFL right now. These are two very
Speaker 1: very competent offenses. And I get when I break down
Speaker 1: the matchup a little bit, I see Tennessee doing some
Speaker 1: very unique things with their wide receiver sets. Art Smith
Speaker 1: is running an incredibly complex and nuanced passing game, which
Speaker 1: which is crafted exactly to make Ryan Tannehill as good
Speaker 1: as he can be. So the fact that Ryan Tannehill
Speaker 1: has performed at his ceiling over the last half of
Speaker 1: last year and through five games this year shouldn't shock
Speaker 1: us because it's it's built for, you know, for him
Speaker 1: to succeed. He throws passes along the sidelines eleven or
Speaker 1: twenty yards down the field very accurately, and that is
Speaker 1: one of the more important passes you need in order
Speaker 1: to you know, kind of you know, make those third
Speaker 1: and long completions. So I think Tennessee is going to
Speaker 1: be able to move the ball on this one, even
Speaker 1: against a Pittsburgh defense that I recognized there and my
Speaker 1: they're my top ten pretty clearly as far as ratings go. Um,
Speaker 1: but you know, their past defense can be uh can
Speaker 1: be picked on. And you know, to your point about
Speaker 1: Lue being unavailable, it does matter. Luan is one of
Speaker 1: the best tackles in the league. His replacement is going
Speaker 1: to be a guy that we've seen played twice already
Speaker 1: this season. He came in in relief in the Minnesota game,
Speaker 1: and he came in and relief in the Houston game,
Speaker 1: and he acquitted himself fairly well. They have. They replaced
Speaker 1: Conklin on right tackle with a guy named Kelly Uh,
Speaker 1: and he's played very very well at right tackle so
Speaker 1: far this season. It wouldn't shock me to see them
Speaker 1: flip him to the left so he's protecting Tanehill's blindside. Uh.
Speaker 1: And then the replacement level player that they have then
Speaker 1: to fill in on the right tackle doesn't matter quite
Speaker 1: as much. Um. So I'm not especially worried about tan
Speaker 1: Hill taking too many sacks in this game. That's probably
Speaker 1: his one key criticism. You guys hold onto the ball
Speaker 1: a little bit too long and take too many sacks.
Speaker 1: But um, I think I think Tennessee is gonna be
Speaker 1: able to get into the twenty eight point range here,
Speaker 1: which then puts the onus on Pittsburgh. Can you go
Speaker 1: score for score with these guys? Uh? And they have
Speaker 1: a fully healthy offensive line coming back here, we're gonna
Speaker 1: see David de Castro finally. Really, the whole offensive line
Speaker 1: is playing great and they're now adding pieces back, of
Speaker 1: healthy pieces back. Similarly, with the wide receiving corps, they
Speaker 1: have literally you know, four wide receiver, one wide receiver,
Speaker 1: two's that is an embarrassment of riches in today's NFL.
Speaker 1: So they're gonna be able to move the ball and
Speaker 1: do a lot of damage against the Tennessee defense that
Speaker 1: I don't have a ton of respect for. So I
Speaker 1: think this is gonna be an old fashioned shootout. Uh.
Speaker 1: And I'll take over fifty and a half any day
Speaker 1: of the week over fifty and a half from Drew.
Speaker 1: I didn't know if that was gonna end up as
Speaker 1: a best bet, but it is over fifty and a half.
Speaker 1: Can we also shout out Mike for Abel for a second.
Speaker 1: We talked about on a Numbers game, but the movie
Speaker 1: he pulled. I talked about it all last year and
Speaker 1: the year before, how there used to be this loophole
Speaker 1: in the NFL rules bill. Belichick used to exploit it
Speaker 1: all the time where if you had more than five
Speaker 1: minutes left in a football game and you were nursing
Speaker 1: a lead, you could keep taking delay of game calls
Speaker 1: and they would start and they would keep winding the
Speaker 1: clock up. And it was this great loophole that Belichick
Speaker 1: used to explain. And then the playoffs last year, Rabel
Speaker 1: did it against his teacher Belichick, and Belichick went crazy,
Speaker 1: and that was the first sign of Wow, Mike Vrabel
Speaker 1: is on this level in this game theory, win probability
Speaker 1: level that other coaches aren't. He's in that Belichick category.
Speaker 1: And then after Romeo, Before Romeo, Cornell decided to go
Speaker 1: for two up seven thirty six to twenty nine when
Speaker 1: it was thirty to twenty nine. This past week, Ryan
Speaker 1: Tannehill had just thrown a pick. Houston had the ball
Speaker 1: second and one at the Titans twenty five with three
Speaker 1: forty nine remaining in the game. Second and one, and
Speaker 1: Vrabel throws Jonathan Joseph out there on the field, and
Speaker 1: John Joseph is looking back at Rabel like, I don't
Speaker 1: think I should be out here's off guy on the field.
Speaker 1: And Rabel's like, no, no no, no, you're good. You just
Speaker 1: stay out there, Just stay out there. You're fine. And
Speaker 1: they get flagged. And what that did was it a
Speaker 1: It gave the Texans a first down and more importantly,
Speaker 1: stopped the clock, whereas it would have kept running and
Speaker 1: they would have had two plays to gain one yard.
Speaker 1: So they're likely to get the first down anyway. So
Speaker 1: Rabel said, I'll give you the first down, but I'm
Speaker 1: gonna save myself forty seconds by intentionally doing a twelve
Speaker 1: minute on the field. They needed that forty seconds to
Speaker 1: come back and tie the game after Crinell decided to
Speaker 1: go for two up seven and they failed. Unbelievable. Unbelievable
Speaker 1: coaching moved by Rabel and I'll shout out to your
Speaker 1: boss Derek Stevens for noticing that as well. By the way,
Speaker 1: can can I just say something about that game? Mike?
Speaker 1: Did you want to go first? Go ahead? Mike, No,
Speaker 1: He's fine, sure, Mike. Now what I wanted to say
Speaker 1: is I, first of all, I couldn't agree with you
Speaker 1: more about that. I love it when these coaches get
Speaker 1: it mathematically. It's fantastic. So there's nothing to be said there.
Speaker 1: But the one thing I do want to say is
Speaker 1: I think people miss the entire point of the analysis
Speaker 1: about Romeo Cornell going for two here, and this is
Speaker 1: they never you never hear this, And I don't know,
Speaker 1: I'm sure you you're going to agree with me. But
Speaker 1: really the question is is do you think you can
Speaker 1: score two more often than they would get a two
Speaker 1: on you? Because in the end, if you just kicked
Speaker 1: the extra point, you go up by eight. Now the
Speaker 1: question is you've got to stop them from getting it
Speaker 1: two to tie the game later. So I think it.
Speaker 1: I never hear them say it's really a question of
Speaker 1: who's two point? Do you have more confidence in your
Speaker 1: defense to stop it or your offense to get it,
Speaker 1: Because that's really kind of what the question is true.
Speaker 1: What was your thoughts on that they're one and four,
Speaker 1: they have nothing to lose, Go for two, don't go
Speaker 1: for two. I don't think it matters the one way
Speaker 1: or the other. Romeo Carnell is not getting another head
Speaker 1: coaching jab in the NFL. His players probably probably wanted
Speaker 1: to inject them with a little bit of confidence. Um,
Speaker 1: so you know, saying, hey, you guys, I believe in you. Guys.
Speaker 1: You can go get this. You can do it. If
Speaker 1: it works out, you win the locker room, maybe you
Speaker 1: go on a little run. Everybody feels good. If you don't,
Speaker 1: you know, you can still hopefully stop them, and you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's not really like the Texans are going
Speaker 1: to be in the playoff picture. So this season it's
Speaker 1: a lost season. You just want to you know. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and Todd, what you were saying is if if Romeo
Speaker 1: Crill and we're giving him credit here for this, because
Speaker 1: I don't know if he made this assessment. But what
Speaker 1: you're saying is if Romeo Criddell made the assessment that
Speaker 1: his conversion rate on a two point play was going
Speaker 1: to exceed the titans ability conversion rate against their defense,
Speaker 1: then it was the proper play. Is that what you're saying? Yeah,
Speaker 1: which I never hear anybody talking about, because that's really
Speaker 1: what this all comes down to, because if they kicked
Speaker 1: the extra point, now you're defending it too. If they
Speaker 1: get the touchdown, if they don't, if if he goes
Speaker 1: for the two, right, it's the opposite right, So that
Speaker 1: that's I never hear them talk about that portion of it.
Speaker 1: They always talk about the part of whether Romeo should
Speaker 1: have gone for two because you know, it puts it
Speaker 1: out of reach in the mathematics of whether you win
Speaker 1: more when you're up by nine or whether you win
Speaker 1: more by going to overtime up by seven. You know
Speaker 1: that whole thing. I just never hear them talk about
Speaker 1: the other part of it, which is you're forcing the
Speaker 1: other team to go for two also, which is you
Speaker 1: know what I mean, that's the other side of it. Well,
Speaker 1: that's uh, yeah, I mean, my thing is, and you'll
Speaker 1: see analytics charts that will tell you that it's not
Speaker 1: the wrong thing to do, right, My My whole thing is,
Speaker 1: you're still if you kick the extra point, you go
Speaker 1: up eight, and you force them to perform two events
Speaker 1: get down the field. Okay, that's gonna happen in both cases.
Speaker 1: But then also have to convert the two point conversion,
Speaker 1: and things happen on place right, So your ability to
Speaker 1: kick the extra point, you know, the expected point value
Speaker 1: of that is close to one, right, it's point nine,
Speaker 1: whatever it is. But things happen on two point conversions, right,
Speaker 1: there's a reason that they expected point value is about
Speaker 1: the same. But they convert fifty of the time. So
Speaker 1: the question is, did Romeo Crenell make the assessment? Well,
Speaker 1: they have, Derek Riso, let's go for two now, like
Speaker 1: we're giving if we give him the credit that he
Speaker 1: thought it through, that's one thing I just don't know
Speaker 1: if he did. I'm just talking about you. So let
Speaker 1: me let me say I've been waiting very patient. One.
Speaker 1: Mike Vrabel's wife is a good friend of mine, Jen Boland.
Speaker 1: She was a year behind me in high school. All
Speaker 1: State volleyball players. She got a scholarship to Ohio State.
Speaker 1: That's where they met, and they have wonderful families. So great.
Speaker 1: Two I had as one of my bets and in
Speaker 1: real life as well one of my podcast bets, Texans
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. I could see this scenario coming.
Speaker 1: I was hoping they'd stopped him at the goal line
Speaker 1: and kicked the field goal obviously and lose by three
Speaker 1: when they scored. I'm sitting here at this table on
Speaker 1: Sunday saying, I hope Romeo Cronal goes for two. And
Speaker 1: the reason is what Todd cited. If Tennessee comes down
Speaker 1: and scores, they can't stop Derrick Henry from two yards out,
Speaker 1: which was evidenced by and over and over time. They
Speaker 1: directly snapped it to him from the five and he
Speaker 1: just walked right into the air. He leaned his way
Speaker 1: five yards to win the game. I agree with Todd.
Speaker 1: The assessment is, what do you think your defense his
Speaker 1: chances are stopping the two? Whether you should go for two?
Speaker 1: And I thought it was the right decision. Do you
Speaker 1: think Romeo Crenell made that assessment? Um? I think he
Speaker 1: might have, but I I believe he might he might
Speaker 1: have as well. I can't. Everyone just walked into the build,
Speaker 1: slow jamming with Vinny Todd, wish neev. Look at that
Speaker 1: puss on the screen that we got here. What to wish?
Speaker 1: I miss you. We can't. We can't hear you sit
Speaker 1: the US Tennis Center in Pittsburgh. We can't hear Vinnie.
Speaker 1: But just know that it's in a slow jam voice.
Speaker 1: Just know, um, Yeah, it's interesting, you know. I think
Speaker 1: it's one of those you know, I wasn't talking about
Speaker 1: whether Romeo cren had thought that through. I was just
Speaker 1: saying that a good coach, they don't talk about the
Speaker 1: other side of of the coin. They just they just
Speaker 1: analyzed the first part of it. It's a it's a
Speaker 1: It's the same thing they do with the the you know,
Speaker 1: the statistics. I was talking about this last night with Brad.
Speaker 1: You know, people go, oh, well, their fourteenth that gets
Speaker 1: the past and against the run and blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: But they don't talk about who they play, which, which
Speaker 1: in the NFL is gigantic because you know, you have
Speaker 1: six percent of your season is one game. Let's that's
Speaker 1: let's put it this way. My thing about it is
Speaker 1: I think there's I think reasonable minds can disagree on this,
Speaker 1: right Like I think I think there's a side to
Speaker 1: each part here. Unlike say the Eagles attempting a fifty
Speaker 1: seven yard field goal up to with three forty nine
Speaker 1: left in the game against Pittsburgh, I don't think reasonable
Speaker 1: minds can disagree on that. Like I just Gruten screwed
Speaker 1: me when Gruten screwed me with that long field goal
Speaker 1: against New Orleans, which was also even though it worked
Speaker 1: out for him, it was not the right play. Remember
Speaker 1: early in the season we had that old discussion. But
Speaker 1: like the like Doug Peterson saying, you know what, we're
Speaker 1: gonna kick a fifty seven yard or at Hines Field.
Speaker 1: That's the key point Hines Field. And then even if
Speaker 1: we make it, they got all the time in the
Speaker 1: world to just kick a field goal themselves. Like that's
Speaker 1: not by the way they fil Hines is not if
Speaker 1: before Hines was like the worst field of all time,
Speaker 1: it's not. It's still bad, but it's not as bad
Speaker 1: as it used to be. Just just for everyone to
Speaker 1: know what stadiums are tougher to kick in Todd, since
Speaker 1: you're gonna make that assertion saying I'm not saying one second,
Speaker 1: I'm not saying hines Field is not still bad. It's
Speaker 1: that it's just alight. It used to be horrendous. What
Speaker 1: did they do? They they erected buildings all around it
Speaker 1: to make it easier to kick in. Well, now they
Speaker 1: have the River's Casino is next door. So they took
Speaker 1: some of those five dollar chips and they put it
Speaker 1: down to tamp down the turf. That's a big fact.
Speaker 1: Todd's like, have you ever kicked at the old vent
Speaker 1: in Philadelphia? All right? Where are we all the way? Okay,
Speaker 1: so we've heard we've heard Drew give two picks under
Speaker 1: fifty six in Seattle, Arizona over fifty and a half
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, Tennessee. Me, you and Mike have given one
Speaker 1: pick each, so you can decide who you want to
Speaker 1: go next for the second pick. Oh, Mike, you haven't
Speaker 1: given two to your second. Then I copied Drew which
Speaker 1: is which is over fifty and a half Tennessee, And
Speaker 1: I just I almost made that my number one. I
Speaker 1: think this Tennessee is very talented offensively, which in a
Speaker 1: little bit covers up their their liabilities on defense. And
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's gonna score twenty eight about against anybody. So I
Speaker 1: just think this game might played in the sixties. Um.
Speaker 1: I also tend to think that your pick of Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: is the right side in this game, but I'm not
Speaker 1: betting on that. But I would agree with Pittsburgh, I
Speaker 1: just because I think they could probably make Tannehill a
Speaker 1: little bit one dimensional, which they did to Baker Mayfield
Speaker 1: and exposed him. So yeah, over fifty and a half
Speaker 1: Todd number two. My second pick is gonna be okay.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back to the well and I always
Speaker 1: get this team wrong. I'm always one week earlier, one
Speaker 1: week late with them, but I'm gonna try it again.
Speaker 1: I'm going back with the Raiders, the Las Vegas Raiders,
Speaker 1: my hometown, plus the three and a half against Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: I like going against teams that looked amazing on national television.
Speaker 1: When the NFL gives us only one or two games
Speaker 1: to watch, they say, oh, you have to watch Tampa
Speaker 1: Brady against uh Aaron Rodgers, and then we you know,
Speaker 1: whips all everyone intend nothing, and then all of a
Speaker 1: sudden it's thirty eight ten the other way, and Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay is not as good as they looked in that
Speaker 1: football game. Do we remember the week before when Tom
Speaker 1: Brady couldn't remember what down it was against the Chicago
Speaker 1: Bears in a ridiculous game. I think Tampa is a
Speaker 1: good team. I'm not saying they're not a good team.
Speaker 1: But the Raiders had a good game plan against Kansas
Speaker 1: City and they won the game. I mean, I'm shocked
Speaker 1: that they won the game, but they actually won the game.
Speaker 1: Earlier in the season, they pulled off a nice win
Speaker 1: against the Saints. This this Raiders team, you know, I
Speaker 1: gotta give Groom some credit. I think he's not that
Speaker 1: bad and he's turning things around with this football team.
Speaker 1: And I think that Vegas they might not be able
Speaker 1: to win the game. But at home, I'm getting three
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm going against the team that just
Speaker 1: had an incredible performance the week before that everybody watched.
Speaker 1: I got a bye week to sit at home, decide
Speaker 1: what to do, dodge the bullets on the Las Vegas
Speaker 1: Strip and somehow come up with a plus three and
Speaker 1: a half. Give me the Las Vegas Raiders plus the three,
Speaker 1: and God wish them. Not an evangelical guy for the
Speaker 1: Vegas tourism to wherever you're gonna say something, Drew, Yeah,
Speaker 1: this was on my list of best bets. But and
Speaker 1: it's not good. Have you been following what's going on
Speaker 1: with the Raiders offensive linetop COVID outbreak, my friend, Oh,
Speaker 1: don't tell me that I got good. Yeah, I was
Speaker 1: not good. My My choice of my number two pick
Speaker 1: was either between Arizona plus three and a half or
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay minus three and a half. And because Todd
Speaker 1: has said this now, just to create some conflict, I'm
Speaker 1: going on Tampa Bay. Uh, Tampa Bay. You guys might
Speaker 1: need a backup picks though, because not I'm not a
Speaker 1: h sure they played this game. Yeah, so so why
Speaker 1: do you Drew hold on? Hold on the time. We're
Speaker 1: gonna let you get off the game. And I'd like
Speaker 1: Drew to expound on that. Yes, well, obviously Rob Manfred
Speaker 1: wanted the World Series time window auto himself, and so
Speaker 1: he sent us a spy and just infected Trent Brown.
Speaker 1: And Trent Brown has now spread it all across the
Speaker 1: Raiders offensive line, so that the prime time slot is
Speaker 1: a wide open for the World Series on Sunday night. Um,
Speaker 1: but not not not in seriousness, In seriousness, Trent Brown,
Speaker 1: uh was at some point in thereby he contracted COVID.
Speaker 1: He showed up for the teams team facilities on Tuesday.
Speaker 1: He's hanging out with the whole offensive line. He's hanging
Speaker 1: out with some of the other reserve players. They have
Speaker 1: a second positive test in cornerback are Net, which is
Speaker 1: not a great sign. They've sent the offensive line home
Speaker 1: now two days in a row because they're just waiting
Speaker 1: for confirmation that they either have it or don't. I
Speaker 1: would be surprised if they are not. You know that
Speaker 1: that the Raiders in general, you know, they've been known
Speaker 1: to have a little bit lax in terms of the
Speaker 1: protocols that they're following. Um, so it's it's I'm a little,
Speaker 1: you know, a little, a little concerned that they that
Speaker 1: this ends up being across the entire offensive line, and
Speaker 1: um you know, there's enough players that the NFL gives
Speaker 1: them some leeway and either you know, postpones or or
Speaker 1: or cancels the game. Okay, well I'm getting off that.
Speaker 1: Then can I pick Can I pick a What would
Speaker 1: happen with Mikey? I wanted to discuss with Gil. I
Speaker 1: didn't want to just make the decision that you could,
Speaker 1: you know, give another pick. I wanted Gil to agree
Speaker 1: with that, and he does. He has pick another a
Speaker 1: different game, Todd. That's a that pick is off the
Speaker 1: board for this contest week for for these purposes because
Speaker 1: of the the Bras offensive lineman situation. Yo, well you
Speaker 1: could you give your second pick, Gil, and I'll come
Speaker 1: up with a new new second pick. But did you
Speaker 1: have a third pick? Yeah, I do have your third pick.
Speaker 1: Slide up into your second pick. I'll slide my pickup
Speaker 1: Mike down. They could deep breath. I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns over the total. Uh. Cincinnati has
Speaker 1: been moving the ball with the the the uh, the
Speaker 1: the second coming Joe Burrow. Everybody loves Joe Burrow. He's
Speaker 1: so fantastic Joe Burrow. And I think he's pretty good.
Speaker 1: I actually do think he's pretty good. Uh. Their defense
Speaker 1: is not that stellar, showing by the fact that they
Speaker 1: were up twenty one nothing against Philip Rivers and couldn't
Speaker 1: couldn't close the door. Uh. Cleveland scored thirty five on them.
Speaker 1: Uh the last time these two teams played. Conversely, Cleveland's
Speaker 1: defense is nothing special. I think they're more of an
Speaker 1: offensive football team. Um, you know they didn't show it
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh last week. That's for shure. Baker Mayfield maybe
Speaker 1: because of his injury, uh, you know, couldn't do anything.
Speaker 1: But the other thing is, remember Baker Mayfield can throw
Speaker 1: you a pick six. And I was said this last
Speaker 1: week when I took up and he actually throw the
Speaker 1: pick six, So you know he could be like a
Speaker 1: Jamis Winston kind of guy to help you with pick
Speaker 1: six is for your overs um. Cincinnati, the other than
Speaker 1: the game they played against the Ravens and the first
Speaker 1: week of the season against the Chargers, has moved the ball.
Speaker 1: You know, thirty points against Cleveland, twenty three against Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: They had thirty three against Jacksonville and twenty seven last week.
Speaker 1: So I think Cincinnati is going to be able to
Speaker 1: move the ball. I don't see them stopping Cleveland's offense.
Speaker 1: Give me over fifty and a half. Um, you know
Speaker 1: that'll be my second pick instead of my my Raiders.
Speaker 1: Over fifty and a half Cleveland Cincinnati. I like that one.
Speaker 1: I like that one a lot. Um all right, so
Speaker 1: I was gonna be appo you Todd, you can go off. No, no, no,
Speaker 1: but it's a Tampa Bay Las Vegas games, so I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna play. I think I think that's actually off
Speaker 1: the board even at CIRCA. Yeah, yes it is. It is.
Speaker 1: It is off the board at Circa, Drew, because we
Speaker 1: were worried that this game wouldn't be played this week. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'd say it's like um, Arizona was the I'll revert
Speaker 1: to guessing lines. Arizona was the line that I thought
Speaker 1: was the rangest headed into guessing lines on Monday, So
Speaker 1: I'll stick with that. I'll elevate that to number three,
Speaker 1: even though I don't love it because Drew said Jamal
Speaker 1: Adams is coming back, and uh, that's never fun. But
Speaker 1: as much as I hate fading Russell Wilson, I like
Speaker 1: the idea of having Kyler Murray in my back pocket. Um,
Speaker 1: and Arizona plus three and a half, that's your pick, Yes,
Speaker 1: that is my pick. Arizona plus three and a half
Speaker 1: is my pick. Um. I don't think they were as
Speaker 1: good as the final score indicates on Monday night. I
Speaker 1: really don't. But I do think Arizona is a team
Speaker 1: that will play up to their competition as well. Um,
Speaker 1: don't ask me why I feel that way. I just
Speaker 1: kind of do in Seattle, Like Tennessee, Seattle is one
Speaker 1: of these teams they put the cape on Russell Wilson.
Speaker 1: He gets them out of jams. Uh. They shouldn't have
Speaker 1: beaten Minnesota that they did. Um, But I like Arizona.
Speaker 1: Give me three in the hook, which is what it
Speaker 1: is right now, and I thought this would come down
Speaker 1: to three. It has not. I'm going to take the
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals three and a half on not a whole
Speaker 1: bunch of reasoning other than I can't pick the Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Las Vegas games. So I'm pumping it up to
Speaker 1: number three. I'm not sure I'm betting this game quite frankly,
Speaker 1: but that would be my third pick here. So let's
Speaker 1: elevate Philadelphia to Arizona becomes my three. So both Drew
Speaker 1: and I are done now with our picks. By the way,
Speaker 1: so Eagles is minus four and a half. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: then Carter plus three and a half. Yeah. Alright, Mike
Speaker 1: your final pick. Um. I went with the same game
Speaker 1: as Todd, but I took the over between the Bengals
Speaker 1: and the Browns. I just love betting these Browns over. Um.
Speaker 1: But I thought you took Cincinnati. No, no, I go
Speaker 1: over fifty and a half. Oh, well that's the same pick. Then, Sorry,
Speaker 1: I thought you were. You were talking picks six and
Speaker 1: I said Bengals Browns. I thought you took Cincinnati. I did.
Speaker 1: I did because I heard him talking about Mayfield. Pick
Speaker 1: six is yeah, you make it good help look, and
Speaker 1: I tried. I tried to get cute and because of
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers and went under with the Colts Bengals game
Speaker 1: last week that that had no shot. It almost went
Speaker 1: over in the first half. You know, the kid is
Speaker 1: a pretty good quarterback, Burrow, and they're going to move
Speaker 1: the ball, and the Brown's defense is not that good.
Speaker 1: And at the same time their defense isn't going to
Speaker 1: stop the run. May Field is going to be able
Speaker 1: to move the ball, So this is probably a shootout.
Speaker 1: I thought you did, take sense because I like kind
Speaker 1: of like Cincinnati a little bit too to maybe win
Speaker 1: this game at home. Um, but over fifty and half
Speaker 1: is my third pick. They're gonna cover a lot of games,
Speaker 1: they really will. Yeah, I think so. I think it
Speaker 1: was an aberration the game in Baltimore. Yeah, there's one
Speaker 1: thing I think to keep an eye on with Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: and that's what's going on with some of the veterans
Speaker 1: on that team. Um, there's a little whiff of we
Speaker 1: want out of here. Uh. You know, guys like Geno Atkins,
Speaker 1: guys like Dunlap getting practice days off, you know, without
Speaker 1: and you know, not based on injury. Um, seems like
Speaker 1: they may be shopping them around behind the scenes. Uh,
Speaker 1: to send those guys out of there. That doesn't necessarily
Speaker 1: change the handicap at all. I look back, I love
Speaker 1: the over. I like the Browns team total over the
Speaker 1: this week specially, Um, but there is there for sure. Um,
Speaker 1: you could see a surprise scratch on someone like a J. Green, Um,
Speaker 1: you know he you know, it's not unlike what you
Speaker 1: see with starting pitchers around the trade deadline for baseball,
Speaker 1: where all of a sudden they're not going to start
Speaker 1: that guy because they're they're worried he's gonna get you know,
Speaker 1: they're gonna they don't want to jeopardize the deal by
Speaker 1: getting those guys hurt. Um. You know, just keep an
Speaker 1: eye on some of the veterans for the Bengals, all right, UM,
Speaker 1: I need that's interesting about the Bengals. The Bengals veterans.
Speaker 1: It's a little whiff of that Todd your final one,
Speaker 1: my final pick. This is gonna be my fill in pick.
Speaker 1: I'm going to take. I'm gonna hold my nose. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna hold my nose. Anthony Lynn, Anthony Lynn at the opposite.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna plus eight against Anthony Lynn. I'm gonna hope
Speaker 1: for the Lynn factor, and and and and make sure
Speaker 1: hope Anthony can keep me in the game late and
Speaker 1: somehow Jacksonville can squeak inside the number. They haven't squeaked
Speaker 1: inside the number for quite a while now. Minshoe has
Speaker 1: been you know, horrendous lately, and I'm just thinking, Okay,
Speaker 1: this might be the game. Remember, these teams have to
Speaker 1: cover some games. Maybe not the Jets. I was wrong
Speaker 1: about the Jets, by the way. I made a point
Speaker 1: last week about how all the teams at the end
Speaker 1: are gonna be either six and ten, seven and nine,
Speaker 1: nine and seven, or eight and eight against the spread,
Speaker 1: and I'm correct about that. There is always the outlier
Speaker 1: team like the Jets that ends up three and thirteen
Speaker 1: against the spread, and that's probably it's gonna happen this week,
Speaker 1: this this year. But I don't see Jacksonville, as you
Speaker 1: know in the Jets world of that bad. So I
Speaker 1: think Jacksonville's got to get some spread wins. And why
Speaker 1: not against the team like Anthony Lynn, who loves they'll
Speaker 1: let you hang around. I could totally see them being
Speaker 1: up fourteen late and him just running the ball late
Speaker 1: in third quarter to try to punt it back and
Speaker 1: give Jacksonville chance to give me the back door. Anthony
Speaker 1: Lynn is who you want to be against when you
Speaker 1: have the back door. You know you don't want him
Speaker 1: in another situation where it's a tight game or something
Speaker 1: like that, well you might want to go against him
Speaker 1: there too, because you know everything's gonna go wrong in
Speaker 1: his world. But this is a perfect scenario where I
Speaker 1: could see Jacksonville coming in the back door and losing
Speaker 1: by you know, seven or eight or something like that.
Speaker 1: So give me Jacksonville plus the eight against the Anthony Lenz.
Speaker 1: And isn't it amazing if if if to Rod Taylor
Speaker 1: hadn't had his lung puncture by the team doctor, we
Speaker 1: still would never have probably seen justin Herbert, that guy's
Speaker 1: the m v P of the table the Chargers. He's
Speaker 1: gotta be Yeah, would you would you play Tua at
Speaker 1: ten to one or better for Rookie of the Year's
Speaker 1: site unseen right now, though, would you play ta? I would?
Speaker 1: Why not? Drew and I were on the air at
Speaker 1: Visa when the Todd obviously wasn't listening. Yeah, we were
Speaker 1: on the air Tod Todd doesn't listen on Wednesdays specifically
Speaker 1: so soon. But but Tuesday, Drew and I when the
Speaker 1: news came down, I was admittedly surprised. Um, but you
Speaker 1: know we saw it both ways. I guess Drew right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean from an organization standpoint, it's it's you know,
Speaker 1: you have to evaluate this kid. You absolutely have to.
Speaker 1: You only have a you have a three year window
Speaker 1: to evaluate your rookie quarterback to understand if he is
Speaker 1: the guy that you were going to war with in
Speaker 1: the future. And they have so much draft capital in draft,
Speaker 1: they need to know even sooner because this is going
Speaker 1: to be one of their last chances because you know
Speaker 1: they have so much draft capital at the behest of
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans in addition to their own that if
Speaker 1: two us not right physically, if he doesn't have the
Speaker 1: game for the NFL, they need to be able to
Speaker 1: package those picks and move up and get another guy,
Speaker 1: not unlike what we saw with the Cardinals. So you know,
Speaker 1: I think they know that they're on the clock and
Speaker 1: that they have a short window to do this evaluation.
Speaker 1: And you know, Ryan Fitzpatrick may be good enough to
Speaker 1: get you into the playoffs, but in a year where
Speaker 1: you're not even really selling tickets and who knows when
Speaker 1: you're really going to be able to celtickets again, what
Speaker 1: good is it just to get some wins and inspire
Speaker 1: the fan base. And you know, I think the dynamics
Speaker 1: have changed a little bit and the and the organization
Speaker 1: is being a little bit more aggressive, and it's just
Speaker 1: in terms of you know, hey, we want to win
Speaker 1: a title. We need to know as soon as possible
Speaker 1: to as the guy. And the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick
Speaker 1: was winning I think is probably um it was never
Speaker 1: part of their decision making, right. They could have been
Speaker 1: owned five headed owen six heading into their by or
Speaker 1: six and oh, and I think they were like, look,
Speaker 1: he's going to be healthy by that time. We're gonna
Speaker 1: have two weeks of prep, uh, you know with our
Speaker 1: buy and that's when we're making the move one way
Speaker 1: or the other. It seems like they didn't communicate that
Speaker 1: to Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's the interesting thing, right, which can
Speaker 1: I give the other side of this? I agree with
Speaker 1: everything you just said, but that being said, the end
Speaker 1: of the a f C East is not that good
Speaker 1: at division, folks. And Ryan Fitzpatrick, while he hasn't had
Speaker 1: his blow up game, and I'm sure it's coming somewhere
Speaker 1: down the road, he's been pretty good. And why not
Speaker 1: just from a human stand I'm sad for Ryan Fitzpatrick
Speaker 1: and Drew is probably right in the long term. You're
Speaker 1: not going anywhere with with Fitzpatrick. But it's not like
Speaker 1: the NFC East is any good this year. Why not
Speaker 1: have a little story book season for a certain team
Speaker 1: that I know I forgot. I kind of like their song.
Speaker 1: It goes a little bit like this, Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphin.
Speaker 1: The Mr Fitzpatrick deserves better than this. I know to
Speaker 1: us gonna be great. I know too, U was gonna
Speaker 1: be great. But his parents can't even come to the
Speaker 1: game this year. Wow, you hit the high eff once again.
Speaker 1: Nicely done, Todd Um. I think all these things are true, right,
Speaker 1: Like it was surprising because of all the reasons you
Speaker 1: stay Todd because they're in it there ahead of the Patriots.
Speaker 1: The Bills just lost again, so hey, you can get
Speaker 1: the division is there. But then everything drew saying and
Speaker 1: I think specifically they don't care what the record was. Apparently,
Speaker 1: I think this was pre planning, and it's surprising. I
Speaker 1: don't know if the surprising thing, but the interesting thing
Speaker 1: has been Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn't taken it that well. He's like,
Speaker 1: this is a heartbreaking. He didn't see it coming, so
Speaker 1: and I feel bad for him. Don't you feel bad
Speaker 1: for I? Do? I do? Uh? Not that it matters
Speaker 1: to the Dolphins, I guess, but I feel bad, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I have the only bets I made
Speaker 1: before the season started, where Patriots underseason wins, Dolphins overseason
Speaker 1: wins six, and the Dolphins at eleven one eleven to
Speaker 1: one to win the division. So I don't know how
Speaker 1: I feel about it, but I would I would consider
Speaker 1: a bet on two of a rookie of the year,
Speaker 1: just because the number is what it is. Burrow and
Speaker 1: Herbert can't win their divisions, two of might be able
Speaker 1: to in the same way that I would consider a
Speaker 1: bet on Justin Fields to win the Heisman at six
Speaker 1: to one site unseen because I get it's Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 1: is to lose, but I don't know. I'll take a
Speaker 1: flyer on Justin Fields. Can they just wait for for
Speaker 1: three or four weeks till Fitzpatrick starts throwing two interceptions
Speaker 1: plus the game and then they go by. But they
Speaker 1: had to buy way, I get it. I I get
Speaker 1: what Drew saying. I just if you're a Dolphins fan,
Speaker 1: is this exciting for you to get to see two? Yes,
Speaker 1: they love this. It's the fan base energized by this.
Speaker 1: First of all, we all love the kid, right well,
Speaker 1: he's injury prone. I didn't you know he can't stay
Speaker 1: on him his own way. Need to find out if
Speaker 1: you can play a full season like you really like?
Speaker 1: You need to give him ten games? Can you stay
Speaker 1: on the field for ten games? You need to know?
Speaker 1: All right, let's let's wrap it up with the final
Speaker 1: three questions. Um. First of all, the first one is
Speaker 1: your your favorite teaser leg, your favorite your favorite two
Speaker 1: team or two leg two team rather teaser six point
Speaker 1: teaser of the week. We've done very well on these,
Speaker 1: waue a hell, I messaged something you just for my
Speaker 1: own purposes. Who you have egos minus four and a
Speaker 1: half and a half and a half you have and
Speaker 1: under in the Cardinals fifty six? Right, Okay, I just
Speaker 1: wanted to clarify. Okay, I don't trust ud. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: it's hard to read it sometimes. I mean I go
Speaker 1: back and look and say, what the hell did he write?
Speaker 1: Chicken scratch? It's like a pharmacist. It's very good, actually
Speaker 1: very good. There's all kinds of extraneous lines. It's hard
Speaker 1: to read, like a pharmacists on Twitter, just to show
Speaker 1: that you have problems with reading comprehension. Drew's Drew has
Speaker 1: been kind enough to stay long here. Let's get this.
Speaker 1: He's got three more podcast today. Alright, uh, Drill will
Speaker 1: start with you front. I front loaded my week, so
Speaker 1: this is the grand finale. Okay, we appreciate it. Your
Speaker 1: favorite two leg teaser of the week, sir? Okay, Well,
Speaker 1: one of them is a classic Wong for sure. I
Speaker 1: am taking the Detroit Lions. I'm gonna tease them from
Speaker 1: two and a half down to eight and a half.
Speaker 1: That is a very solid look. In my opinion, I
Speaker 1: think the Lions probably win this game. Um, and realistically,
Speaker 1: I'm not a Mampatrician guy. I'm not a Stafford guy really. UM,
Speaker 1: but what the Falcons did kind of you know, drump
Speaker 1: thumping the Minnesota Vikings last week, I thought was you know,
Speaker 1: that was a motivational high spot for them after firing
Speaker 1: Dan Quinn. I don't know that they come out and
Speaker 1: give you the same level of effort and the you know,
Speaker 1: the Falcons defense is as bad as we think they are. UM,
Speaker 1: And realistically the Lions are you know, they are surging
Speaker 1: to a degree, and off of thereby in the way
Speaker 1: that they played against the Jags was impressive by thought.
Speaker 1: So UM, A little nervous that they will somehow screw
Speaker 1: this up towards the end of the game because they
Speaker 1: get too conservative when they have the lead. UM, but
Speaker 1: I definitely think they will be able to get to
Speaker 1: to get a lead against the Falcon. So I'll put
Speaker 1: lines plus two and a half out to eight and
Speaker 1: a half. This is a standard six pointer we're talking about. UM.
Speaker 1: Second one, I'm gonna do something a little controversial and
Speaker 1: I want, actually I'm picking this specifically to make an
Speaker 1: interesting point to you guys. See what you have any thoughts. UM,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna tease the Kansas City Chiefs down from ten
Speaker 1: two four. And what's interesting kind of doing a little
Speaker 1: bit of uh, you know, some of the numbers over
Speaker 1: the last couple of years and this higher you know,
Speaker 1: we we know that, you know, not just this season,
Speaker 1: but over the last couple of seasons. Scoring is creeping
Speaker 1: in the NFL. We know what the longer extra points.
Speaker 1: That's you know, the conventional wisdom that three is this
Speaker 1: high frequency landing spot for for NFL margins, it's being
Speaker 1: challenged a little bit. And I guess, um, you know,
Speaker 1: would it surprise you guys know that if you take
Speaker 1: all of last year's contests and this year's contest, that
Speaker 1: three is no longer the most common final score margins.
Speaker 1: It's seven last year and it's still seven. We have
Speaker 1: seven is creeping up in frequency to twelve percent. Twelve
Speaker 1: percent is that? And you know, and three is down
Speaker 1: from right used to be right? Uh, three used to
Speaker 1: be fifteen and three is down to ten. Yeah, three,
Speaker 1: three has fallen from from fifteen to ten, and seven
Speaker 1: is surging up to twelve um. And honestly eight is
Speaker 1: surging as well. Five percent of games now land on
Speaker 1: eight UM. Realistically, what This is just kind of all
Speaker 1: breaks down to, is there's sort of a secondary Wong
Speaker 1: zone in in the in the U ten nine eight
Speaker 1: range and teasing some of the heavier favorites. Is you
Speaker 1: know it's been you know, almost as profitable. You get
Speaker 1: like thirty eight sent win probability crossing seven six five
Speaker 1: four three, um, and you get about thirty one percent
Speaker 1: win probability crossing ten seven six five Now, so it's uh,
Speaker 1: it's it's an interesting little uh great point. Interesting. Yeah,
Speaker 1: do you want better nine and a half to three
Speaker 1: and a half. Yeah, because it's so we got to
Speaker 1: move it down to three and a hit. It's not
Speaker 1: only is there one night and we do it by consensus.
Speaker 1: Consensus is nine and a half right now, So yeah, not,
Speaker 1: it's even better, even better because four is a five
Speaker 1: point mark. Five percent of games land on four, so
Speaker 1: it's perfect. It's a great point. Drew so from from
Speaker 1: the three being the most common last year, it shifted
Speaker 1: and right now you're seeing twelve percent of outcomes are
Speaker 1: seven and only ten percent or three. Now incredible. I
Speaker 1: never thought it's yet. Yeah, And that's incredible that it
Speaker 1: went from fifteen to ten percent on threes, right, because
Speaker 1: that means that means a full one third of the
Speaker 1: games that used to land on three are no longer
Speaker 1: landing on three. That it's pretty wild. Yeah, Mikey, I
Speaker 1: used I used the Lions as well up through the
Speaker 1: seven eight. I didn't expect that, by the way, why,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I just didn't expect it about the Lions.
Speaker 1: I don't know. The Lions are a little bit of
Speaker 1: an enigma just because Atlanta is so volatile in their story.
Speaker 1: But their their defense is awful. Atlanta's defense is all
Speaker 1: I mean, it takes like a Kirk Cousins a special
Speaker 1: level of an apt for them to win. And so
Speaker 1: I think that the Lions will. I mean, this will
Speaker 1: be another high scoring game, the total set that way,
Speaker 1: but I just don't think that they're beaten by by ten.
Speaker 1: And then my other one is I'm gonna hold my
Speaker 1: nine nose and um, just because I don't love anything
Speaker 1: else that take take Anthony Lynne down under the three
Speaker 1: to two. Yeah, Unfortunately, I have the exact same thing
Speaker 1: with with Mikey as the But the thing is now
Speaker 1: that I have Jacksonville plus eight, I don't really want
Speaker 1: to root for you know for them to win exactly
Speaker 1: between two and eight. So you know what, all switch
Speaker 1: my l A Chargers as my second leg. I have
Speaker 1: Detroit plus eight and a half too. I like Detroit.
Speaker 1: I think it's hard for at Landed to win by
Speaker 1: a lot of points because their defense isn't that good
Speaker 1: and Detroit actually has been sneaky better than people think.
Speaker 1: Think about this. Have they win that game that they
Speaker 1: should have won against the Bears. They're not. They've got
Speaker 1: three wins. They're not even that bad Detroit. So you know,
Speaker 1: I'll take Detroit plus eight and a half, and you
Speaker 1: know what I'll switched to. I'm gonna hold my nose
Speaker 1: and take the Rams. I don't really like the Rams.
Speaker 1: I don't really like their quarterback. But I mean, come on,
Speaker 1: the Bears just gonna do this every single week for
Speaker 1: the rest of time. I don't think so, you know,
Speaker 1: I just I like their defense. I think it's great,
Speaker 1: But I don't know, I just don't think they're they're
Speaker 1: as good as everyone's making them out to be. Give
Speaker 1: me the Rams to just win the game, all right.
Speaker 1: I'm holding my breath. I'm taking the Chargers on one
Speaker 1: end down to one and a half. God help me. No,
Speaker 1: it's two. Uh not according to my board, it's not.
Speaker 1: It's one and a half. But okay, okay, fine, we'll
Speaker 1: give you the one half and then I mean, Mikey,
Speaker 1: the one and a half to and you way uh.
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna take the Pittsburgh Steelers. But am I
Speaker 1: getting into seven or seven and a half? Just a seven? Right? Yeah,
Speaker 1: just a seven. But that's who I'm gonna take. So
Speaker 1: there's charges in Pittsburgh for me. Um, before we do
Speaker 1: the fund, what's that? Because seven was pretty common. Pushes
Speaker 1: loose if you don't know, if you go to your
Speaker 1: correct places, a push is actually a re refund correct,
Speaker 1: So we're going with that. Yes, pushes don't lose, okay, alright,
Speaker 1: because you can shop. You can shop for that in
Speaker 1: the market. So we have to you know, it's all
Speaker 1: about you should know your rules, Mikey. That's what people
Speaker 1: tell me. People say it's people say it's an obscure rule.
Speaker 1: It's rule number one. All right. Before we do the
Speaker 1: final two questions, Drew, do you do survivor or no?
Speaker 1: I'm out? Okay, So that it's me and Todd. He
Speaker 1: had the patriots to that, so it's only me I'm taking.
Speaker 1: So I'm happy. This is proof that has Chev doesn't
Speaker 1: hate you. Ty. That's right, the same thing. Maybe my
Speaker 1: whole season is going to turn around. Now, Okay, I haven't.
Speaker 1: I didn't do a grid for the season because I'll
Speaker 1: tell you who you've used so far. You want to
Speaker 1: know who you use in the second entry? No, you
Speaker 1: don't want to please tell the people your second entry.
Speaker 1: So far, you've used Tennessee, Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots,
Speaker 1: Pampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona and Miami Dolphins. So who are
Speaker 1: you going to take? I'm taking I'm taking the Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bills against the Jets. I I'm lucky to have them,
Speaker 1: so I will play them. A lot of people don't
Speaker 1: have them left this week, and I'll play them, and
Speaker 1: I know what's Sam Donald and you know, Okay, I'll
Speaker 1: take Buffalo and I'll let other people squirm not having Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I haven't gritted out the season. I don't until this
Speaker 1: week because I just don't think in the year of
Speaker 1: COVID it does you a lot of good. You gotta
Speaker 1: do this week by week almost this year, you know,
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people will use the Eagles
Speaker 1: tonight and their survivor. Don't some people will some people
Speaker 1: will use the Eagles tonight. I thought about it, but
Speaker 1: you know what, there's there's fewer opportunities to play the
Speaker 1: Bills later than there are the Eagles. Actually, so I'm
Speaker 1: taking the Buffalo Bills. Final two questions of the big
Speaker 1: favorites on the board, who do you think is the
Speaker 1: most likely to lose? Out right? Otherwise known as sort
Speaker 1: of your money line parlay buster? Is it the Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bills twelve and a half point favorites at the New
Speaker 1: York Jets New Orleans seven and a half point favorites
Speaker 1: hosting the Carolina Panthers, the Chiefs nine and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites host excuse me? At Denver or the Chargers
Speaker 1: nine point favorite seven and a half point favorites, pardon me?
Speaker 1: Hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think we know where this
Speaker 1: is going, Drew, who is the most likely to lose
Speaker 1: out right? I'm gonna say it's the Saints. I liked.
Speaker 1: I like Todd's Carolina plus seven and a half pick.
Speaker 1: I'm on that as well this week. Um, And realistically,
Speaker 1: it's just I've downgraded the Saints passing defense pretty substantially.
Speaker 1: It's based on performance. And I come, I am wide await,
Speaker 1: wide open, eyes, wide open, aware of the fact that
Speaker 1: the Saints always treat the beginning part of the season
Speaker 1: as an extended preseason. They don't really try to come
Speaker 1: out and just light the world on the world on
Speaker 1: fire weeks one through four. But it doesn't change the
Speaker 1: fact that players like Marshawn Lattimore, Marcus Williams. I thought
Speaker 1: these guys were up and coming superstars as far as
Speaker 1: secondary defensive players go, and they are really performing poorly
Speaker 1: so far this season. They are giving up many, many,
Speaker 1: many yards through the air. And we have a Carolina
Speaker 1: Panthers team that is getting it done with DJ More
Speaker 1: and Robbie Anderson in a dynamic passing attack under Joe
Speaker 1: Brady that is impressing me. Um. So, I think this
Speaker 1: is going to be a tight contest, and I can
Speaker 1: see I could see the Carolina coming out victorious. How
Speaker 1: good is Robbie Anderson by the way? So good? Ah,
Speaker 1: that's an interesting pick. You know. At the same time
Speaker 1: that I that I teased the Chargers down to two,
Speaker 1: I can still see them losing this team. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna use the chargers. I'm the chargers because it's the chargers.
Speaker 1: No explanation necessary. I just it's just they terrify me.
Speaker 1: You've come around lot on Anthony Lynn. You were a
Speaker 1: big Anthony Lynne defender for quite a while. You were no.
Speaker 1: Your buddy thinks I was an Anthony Lynne defender. I
Speaker 1: was never an Anthony Lynn defender. I thought I thought
Speaker 1: that you were. I he just is upset when Anthony
Speaker 1: Lynn walks into a room and I'm like, let the
Speaker 1: man walk into the room. Well, that's it's it's that's
Speaker 1: he's a sycophantic friend, a sycophantic fan. He's sycophantic in general.
Speaker 1: Is that your word for the week? Are you learning?
Speaker 1: You get that email every day with the word of
Speaker 1: the day. That's my word of the week, Mike, and
Speaker 1: it's very app here's another word for you, app for you? Alright, Todd,
Speaker 1: who's the most likely lose that right? Of those? I'm Withdrew,
Speaker 1: I think it's the New Orleans Saints. I think they're
Speaker 1: not the Old New Orleans Saints. Caroline is okay. I
Speaker 1: could totally see them pulling the shocker. Final quoto by way,
Speaker 1: your Arsenal game went terribly well. I had it set
Speaker 1: up because I had under two and a half over
Speaker 1: one and a half, so I blew some juice. But
Speaker 1: I had it set up at two to hit the
Speaker 1: middle two to one late our top. Okay, last question.
Speaker 1: We live in a bizarro world. We're forced we live
Speaker 1: in this world. We're forced to bet aside on every
Speaker 1: single game in the National Football League. Their fourteen scheduled. Now,
Speaker 1: let's throw out the Tampa Bay game. Let's call it
Speaker 1: thirteen games. But you're allowed one free pass one game.
Speaker 1: You want no part of, Drew. You might have hinted
Speaker 1: at your game earlier, what is it? I would actually, well, man,
Speaker 1: this is awfully tough. I want nothing to do with
Speaker 1: so many of these games. Uh, I guess I'll do
Speaker 1: a Dallas Washington football team. That was mine. Dallas Washington
Speaker 1: want no part of it, none, Mikey, that's mine. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, And I've the last four weeks my best
Speaker 1: bet has been against Dallas. You know, I've just can't
Speaker 1: but they can't move the ball, I mean, even the
Speaker 1: horrible defense. If they have a team that's not even
Speaker 1: a professional passing offense, Washington, I would still if I
Speaker 1: had to pick a take the football team, because their
Speaker 1: defense at least a semblance of something, and this talents
Speaker 1: team is just you have no idea how bad they are.
Speaker 1: They were god awful with that, and then now Dalt
Speaker 1: comes in and everybody picked him on mind. I didn't
Speaker 1: get that. I mean, they downgraded the most important position
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden they were the chip pick
Speaker 1: last week. But I don't know Washington, I don't know
Speaker 1: if they can score. I agree with Drew sentiment though.
Speaker 1: These games are so difficult to get to have five
Speaker 1: picks a week, let alone three. And then when we
Speaker 1: do this exercise, like what do you want no part
Speaker 1: of what? I can give you a ten of these,
Speaker 1: but the one of the ten is Dallas Washington of
Speaker 1: all of them, Todd I, I also don't want any
Speaker 1: part of the green Bay game because I don't know
Speaker 1: what you're going to get out of green Bay this
Speaker 1: week after that ridiculous performance. And who knows what's going
Speaker 1: on with Houston. I mean, they're one in five, but
Speaker 1: they're not really a one in five team. They're not
Speaker 1: that bad, and you know, who knows what's going to
Speaker 1: happen in that okay, uh for Mike Palm, Thank you Mike.
Speaker 1: We love the D. Thank you for having us here
Speaker 1: at the D. I'd like to get I say something
Speaker 1: please In conclusion, well, we always give our survivor. They
Speaker 1: usually at the beginning, I was gonna say, I was
Speaker 1: about to say three three, right, we're down to three
Speaker 1: fifty three. We had four ten last week. Fifty one
Speaker 1: got knocked out with the Patriots. Five got knocked out
Speaker 1: with the Vikings. But again the amazing thing, yet another
Speaker 1: week one entry failed to be submitted. So I want
Speaker 1: us to put up a prop what's the last week
Speaker 1: that that an entry will fail to be submitted? I mean,
Speaker 1: what are we gonna put up twelve and a half.
Speaker 1: I don't know. Every single week somebody doesn't get their picking,
Speaker 1: can I can? I be honest with you. I waited
Speaker 1: till I forgot till eleven thirty on Saturday morning. I
Speaker 1: was like, oh, three and a half hours, no problem. No,
Speaker 1: it was been a panic though for a minute. Uh
Speaker 1: three fifty three. There's a profit DraftKings seven and a
Speaker 1: half season wins for the team that wins the NFC East,
Speaker 1: and the under is plus money. You gotta take the
Speaker 1: under there right seven and a half, I would take
Speaker 1: the under two. Okay for Mike Palm, vice President of
Speaker 1: Operations and Circuits Sports, UH and Derek Stephen's conciliary. Thank
Speaker 1: you to everybody at the d who has been so hospitable.
Speaker 1: Hopefully started circle next week. Well we're going to We
Speaker 1: probably should iron out all the technical difficult when you're
Speaker 1: over there for your tour today. It's the radio booth
Speaker 1: area on top of the top of it. If God,
Speaker 1: I know, I don't know, the studio won't be being
Speaker 1: used at that time either. If that's the other alternative.
Speaker 1: Todd Wishnev and his mother's attic and his mother's cork
Speaker 1: attic in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Uh. Nice cork is great installation,
Speaker 1: I'm told. And Drew Dinsick UH kind enough to join
Speaker 1: me twice this week, but the first time ever on
Speaker 1: the megapod here at the Beating the Book Megapod, the
Speaker 1: host of the Deep Dive podcast with his buddy Andy Molitor,
Speaker 1: UH wrote a world and of course UH point spread
Speaker 1: weekly at visa as well. Thank you, Drew, appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Sorry it took we we went over, but we appreciate
Speaker 1: the time. Sir, that was a pleasure. Thank you guys
Speaker 1: for having me. Best of luck on week seven. Yes
Speaker 1: to everybody, best of luck with all your football picks.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for listening to the megapod. Thank
Speaker 1: you all, Thanks Drew, thank you Late Shops. Back dog
Speaker 1: to BA dog Dog