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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 3: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 3: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 2: Karen, we begin on Capitol Hill, where debate continues on

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Speaker 2: President Trump's three point three trillion dollar tax and spending

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Speaker 2: cut bill. Senators have been up all night and into

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Speaker 2: this morning voting on amendments to the legislation, including clean

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Speaker 2: energy and medicaid provisions that could upset fiscal conservatives, but

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Speaker 2: Kansas Republican Roger Marshall says he is confident the bill

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Speaker 2: will get over the line.

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Speaker 1: I sure think we do have the votes.

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Speaker 4: I think we cannot let this moment pass.

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Speaker 2: To have the largest tax savings in American history, the

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Speaker 2: average American family back home is going to save one

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars a month, but Democrats like Mark Kelly of

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Speaker 2: Arizona are trying to slow the process.

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Speaker 5: We'll be here as long as it takes for us

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Speaker 5: to show the American people that this is bad policy.

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Speaker 5: This is going to kick seventeen million people off of

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Speaker 5: their healthcare to give a big giant tax cut to

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Speaker 5: the wealthiest Americans.

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Speaker 2: Well, right now, eight Republicans are holding out their votes

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Speaker 2: on the bill. Two of them, Rand Paul and Tom

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Speaker 2: Tillis are solidly against it. Senate majority leader John Thune

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Speaker 2: can afford to lose only one more and advance the

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Speaker 2: bill back to the House before President Trump's July fourth deadline.

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Speaker 3: Meanwhile, Nathan a new analysis of the Senate's tax cut

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Speaker 3: bill points to a potential benefit gap in the legislation.

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Speaker 3: Economist at Eale University's Budget Lab I found the bill

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Speaker 3: would cost the bottom twenty percent of taxpayers an average

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Speaker 3: of five hundred and sixty dollars a year, while the

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Speaker 3: top twenty percent would see a boost of six fifty

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Speaker 3: five dollars. The analysis finds the poorest Americans would bear

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Speaker 3: the brunt of cuts to Medicaid in food stamps, while

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Speaker 3: higher earners would see the biggest benefit from tax cuts

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Speaker 3: and an expanded state and local tax deduction well Karen.

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Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen is optimistic that the tax bill

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Speaker 2: will get done in time. He spoke with Bloomberg Shineli Bassic.

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Speaker 4: I'm confident that the bill is going to progress as

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Speaker 4: is over the next few hours, and it'll be on

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Speaker 4: the President's desk to sign on July fourth. So Senate

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Speaker 4: will vote pass it over to the House. We've seen

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Speaker 4: incredible leadership, and this is what leadership looks like.

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Speaker 2: That was Treasury Secretary Scott Besson speaking of Bloomberg Sholly

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Speaker 2: Basset yesterday, and for the full conversation head to the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg podcast channel on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Nathan, the war of words between President Trump and Elon

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Speaker 3: Musk has exploded into public view once again. I'm Bloomberge

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Speaker 3: John Tucker following that story for us John, good morning and.

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Speaker 6: Good morning Karen Well. Overnight, President Trump posted on social

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Speaker 6: media Elon may get more subsidy than any human being

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Speaker 6: in history by far. And without subsidies, Elon would probably

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Speaker 6: have to close up shop and head back to South Africa.

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Speaker 6: He went on to post, no more rocket launches, satellites

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Speaker 6: or electric car production in our country would save a fortune.

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Speaker 6: Perhaps we should have Doze take a good hard look

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Speaker 6: at this.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 6: This all comes after Musks land the Senate's latest version

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Speaker 6: of Trump's multi trillion dollar tax bill, warning that cuts

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Speaker 6: to ev and other clean energy credits would be incredibly

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Speaker 6: destructive to the country. And not to be outdone, Musk

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Speaker 6: is threatening to target nearly every sitting Republican in Congress

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Speaker 6: who has signal support for a President Trump's multi trillion

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Speaker 6: dollar tax bill. Members of the GOP may be asking

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Speaker 6: themselves who they're more afraid of. The President of the

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Speaker 6: United States. Are the world's richest man? For now? Investors

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Speaker 6: are the ones suffering pre market the shares of Tesla

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Speaker 6: they are most active right now, down four and a

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Speaker 6: half percent. You know you, Yorkom John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: All right, John, thanks for that. Now the latest on

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Speaker 2: the trade front. Bloomberg News has learned that the European

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Speaker 2: Union may be willing to accept the trade arrangement with

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Speaker 2: the US ahead of President Trump's deadline. Let's go to

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Speaker 2: London get the latest of Bloomberg's un Potts. Good morning, Ewan, Nathan,

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Speaker 2: and Karen.

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Speaker 7: It's the world's most important bilateral trading relationship. And now

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Speaker 7: Bloomberg has learned that the European Union is willing to

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Speaker 7: accept a arrangement with the US that includes Donald Trump's

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Speaker 7: universal ten percent tariff on many of his exports, but

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Speaker 7: it does want low rates on key sectors including pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors,

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Speaker 7: and commercial aircraft, which told the European Commission views the

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Speaker 7: deal as slightly favoring the US, but it's still something

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Speaker 7: that it could agree to without a deal. Is just

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Speaker 7: eight days until all European Union exports are set to

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Speaker 7: be hit with a tariff of fifty percent in London.

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Speaker 7: I'm you in pots Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 8: Ew and thanks.

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Speaker 3: Meanwhile, President Trump is threatening to ramp up tariffs on Japan.

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Speaker 3: I mean again more with Bloomberg Trades are Brendan Murray.

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Speaker 9: He's kind of.

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Speaker 10: Calling Japan's bluff here and saying, you won't take our

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Speaker 10: rice exports. Therefore, you're just going to have to accept

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Speaker 10: the reciprocal tariff that I'm going to impose on you. Now,

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Speaker 10: whether that's going to motivate Japan to get a better

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Speaker 10: offer on the table between now and July ninth is

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Speaker 10: a whole nother question, and people would doubt that Japan

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Speaker 10: is going to cave on that. The big issue for

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Speaker 10: Japan is getting around those twenty five percent auto tariffs.

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Speaker 10: Japan is obviously a big exporter to the US of automobiles,

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Speaker 10: and something like eighty percent of the US's trade deficit

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Speaker 10: with Japan is tied to automobiles. So Trump really wants

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Speaker 10: to bring that down, and Japan is not willing to

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Speaker 10: give that up very easily.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberry's Brandon Murray says talks between the US and Japan

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Speaker 3: are expected to continue despite the president's latest threat.

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Speaker 2: Karen Let's turn to markets now. The S and P

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Speaker 2: five hundred is coming off its best quarter since twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three. As we head into the second half of

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Speaker 2: this year, the index is trading at an all time high,

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Speaker 2: soaring twenty five percent from its early April low. Tally

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Speaker 2: Lejay is chief market strategistic the Wealth Consulting Grip.

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Speaker 11: I know it sounds silly, and I'm a wild eye optimist,

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Speaker 11: but by the dips has worked since the inception of

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Speaker 11: the S and P five hundred, folks, and we know

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Speaker 11: that because the chart goes from the lower left to

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Speaker 11: the upright across time. It depends on your holding period,

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Speaker 11: and our horizon tends to be pretty long. So I

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Speaker 11: think it's always a good time, even at all time

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Speaker 11: highs like this, to put new money to work in stocks.

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Speaker 2: Chally leje with the Wealth Consulting Group. Meantime, this has

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Speaker 2: been the worst half of a year for the dollar

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Speaker 2: since nineteen seventy three. The US currency is down ten

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Speaker 2: point eight percent so far this year.

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Speaker 3: Nathan FN Chair J Powell and other top central bankers

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Speaker 3: are set to discuss monetary policy at the European Central

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Speaker 3: Bank's annual retreat in Portugal, and we get a preview

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Speaker 3: with Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

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Speaker 8: It's an all star central banker panel that may shed

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Speaker 8: some light on the path for global interest rates given

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Speaker 8: the trumpe tariff chaos. Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell is

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Speaker 8: probably the main attraction, but is there much new he

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Speaker 8: can say until the administration makes its policies clear. In Japan,

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Speaker 8: Kajo Yueeda is trying to navigate a tricky corridor, raising

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Speaker 8: interest rates while trying to keep the economy on course.

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Speaker 8: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is dealing with stubborn

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Speaker 8: inflation and signs of weakening growth, and ECB President Christine

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Speaker 8: Legard is facing headwinds from US policies and European defense

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Speaker 8: spending needs. Odds are we'll learn more about all of

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Speaker 8: their problems than what the solutions may be. Michael McKee,

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Speaker 8: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: Time Now for a look at some of the other

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Speaker 3: stories making news in New York and around the world.

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Speaker 3: And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael,

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Speaker 3: good morning, Good morning Karen.

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Speaker 9: A jury returns to deliberate for a second day today

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Speaker 9: at the sex trafficking trial of music mogul Sean Diddy Combs.

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Speaker 9: Yesterday got off to a rugged start and all were

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Speaker 9: into deliberations. The four persons sent a note saying they

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Speaker 9: were concerned one of the jurors could not follow the

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Speaker 9: judge's instructions. Eventually, jurors deliberated over five hours on Monday.

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Speaker 9: They are deciding where the prosecutors have proven racketeering, conspiracy

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Speaker 9: and sex trafficking charges. Former prosecutor Bernardo Vielono.

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Speaker 3: The jury is accident. If an individual acts for a

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Speaker 3: control substance and the person hands.

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Speaker 8: It over, is it distribution. I would be concerned if

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Speaker 8: I was Sean Colmes, because you don't get to that

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Speaker 8: predicate act unless you have already found that there's a

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Speaker 8: racketeering conspiracy.

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Speaker 9: The defense says this was all part of the swingers'

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Speaker 9: lifestyle and that he committed no crimes. The largest city

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Speaker 9: workers union in Philadelphia is now on strike, about nine

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Speaker 9: thousand workers represented by District Council thirty three walked off

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Speaker 9: the job at midnight after negotiators failed to reach a

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Speaker 9: new deal with the city. The union has been asking

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Speaker 9: for eight percent raises each year for four years. Union

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Speaker 9: head Greg Boulware says the city's offer of a seven

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Speaker 9: percent raise spread out over three years isn't enough. What

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Speaker 9: inflation is up and the cost of living is up.

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Speaker 9: Two percent raises and three percent raises don't change the

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Speaker 9: narrative for our people. Things like trash service have been interrupted.

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Speaker 9: Look for a red hike. The New York City Rent

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Speaker 9: Guidelines Board last night to prove the three percent price

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Speaker 9: increase for one year leases and four point five percent

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Speaker 9: for two year leases, affecting roughly one million rent stabilized apartments.

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Speaker 9: The increases are expected to begin on October first. Global

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Speaker 9: News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want

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Speaker 9: it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr, and

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Speaker 9: this is Bloomberg Karen.

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Speaker 3: All right, Michael Barr, thank you. Time down to the

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Flushing Bank. Here's

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Speaker 3: John Stanshower.

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Speaker 12: John to morning, Good morning to down Yankees in Toronto.

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Speaker 12: First to four before they come back to New York

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Speaker 12: to play the Mets this weekend. Jazz Chisholm another home

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Speaker 12: run is fourth and five games. Yanks had two to nothing,

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Speaker 12: later three to one. It came apart sixth in in blue.

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Speaker 12: Jays put the four runs on three Yankee pitchers and

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Speaker 12: Anthony Vopi throwing air was constantly. Toronto won five to four.

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Speaker 12: Yanks in June had a losing month. Their managers Aaron Boone, a.

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Speaker 13: Really tough week. You know that that lent itself to

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Speaker 13: this record. So you know, we know we got to

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Speaker 13: be a little bit better, and you know feel like overall,

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Speaker 13: you know, we just got to find a way to

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Speaker 13: finish some of these games.

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Speaker 12: Tampa Bay loss of the Yanks remain game and a

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Speaker 12: half ahead. Phillies won four nothing behind Zach Wheeler, who

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Speaker 12: in five starts in June allowed only two in runs

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Speaker 12: in the fields now two games ahead of the Mets,

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Speaker 12: who are at Cityfield tonight to play in Milwaukee. The

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Speaker 12: Mets have lost thirteen or the last sixteen games. The

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Speaker 12: Knick still don't have a coach, but they've added a player.

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Speaker 12: Veteran guard Jordan Clarkson got bought out in Utah, so

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Speaker 12: he first needs to clear free agent waivers, but Clarkson

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Speaker 12: expected to join the Knicks and helped their bench, which

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Speaker 12: was thin for most of last season. As to the

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Speaker 12: new coach, Mike Brown, the first to have a second interview,

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Speaker 12: Brown two years ago Coach of the Year in Sacramento,

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Speaker 12: the Kings fired him during this past season. An NFL

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Speaker 12: trade of three time All Pro defensive backs Mitka Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 12: goes back to Miami where he began his career. Jalen

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Speaker 12: Ramsey goes to Pittsburgh tight end Johnny the Smith. Day

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Speaker 12: two at Wimbledon will have early starts for Americans Tommy

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Speaker 12: Paul and Jess Pagoula. Topsy Onick Center plays today, so

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Speaker 12: does Novak Djokovic and Coke Go God John Stashedward Bloomberg's.

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Speaker 1: Boots Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Serious

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Speaker 1: Exam and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. The Senate has been pulling

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Speaker 2: an all nighter of amendment votes to President Donald Trump's

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Speaker 2: big tax and spending cut bill. It continues this morning.

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Speaker 2: Right now eight Republicans are holding out support for the legislation,

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Speaker 2: but White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett is keeping the

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Speaker 2: pressure on.

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Speaker 11: I would counsel people very much against quoting against the bill,

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Speaker 11: and I don't expect that there are going to be

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Speaker 11: many people who do that because the bill makes so

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Speaker 11: much sense.

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Speaker 2: That was a National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett. Joining

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Speaker 2: us this morning is Terry Haines, the founder of Pangaea Policy. Terry,

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Speaker 2: good morning. The White House is sounding confident this bill

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Speaker 2: is going to get done. How do you see things?

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Speaker 14: Good morning, Good morning, Nathan. This is the time where

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Speaker 14: you project the result you want. So the White House

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Speaker 14: is projecting confidence. The Democrats are projecting scorn and ugliness.

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Speaker 14: The eight Democrat or excuse me, the eight Republican senators

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Speaker 14: that want things or projecting uncertainty. So so people want things,

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Speaker 14: and we're about to the point. My view is ultimately

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Speaker 14: this thing passes. My bogie for three months has been

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Speaker 14: that it's going to happen on or around July fourth.

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Speaker 14: So here we are, and you know, but there's going

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Speaker 14: to be a lot of deals done here in the

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Speaker 14: next few hours and a lot of votes to happen

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Speaker 14: in the next few hours.

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Speaker 2: How do you see those deals shaking out. There's been

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Speaker 2: a lot of focus, particularly on the clean energy tax credits,

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Speaker 2: the cuts to Medicaid. How could this bill reshaped? Do

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Speaker 2: you see significant reshaping to the legislation?

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Speaker 14: Well, I don't see significant. I would say not significant.

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Speaker 14: The reason why is because the core is to the

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Speaker 14: core or this thing or tax provisions and manufacturing provisions.

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Speaker 14: What we're talking about here is are important provisions, but

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Speaker 14: there they're ancillary to the core of the bill. But

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Speaker 14: I see fundamentally accommodation. I see, uh, you know, things

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Speaker 14: that they've probably gone about as far as they're going

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Speaker 14: to go on Medicaid and probably even walk back. And

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Speaker 14: this is what we're talking before Senator Scott's amendment about

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Speaker 14: the federal match happens.

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Speaker 10: Uh.

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Speaker 14: But and Senator Murkowski, Senator Collins and others, uh want

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Speaker 14: some things. So I think the bill ultimately moderates some.

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Speaker 2: We've talked about the pressure that the White House is

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Speaker 2: putting to bear. There's a new analysis from Yale's Budget

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Speaker 2: Lab that shows a pretty disproportionate benefit for upper earners

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Speaker 2: compared to lower earners from this legislation. Is there a

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Speaker 2: potential political downside for Republicans to passing this?

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Speaker 14: Not particularly you know, the the the the Yale folks

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Speaker 14: are a lot of things, but they're they're they're they're

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Speaker 14: pretty part of center orientation. Certainly, the polling is negative

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Speaker 14: towards Republicans right now. But what Republicans are focusing on is,

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Speaker 14: you know, they can get the kind of the tack

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Speaker 14: the fundamental tax and manufacturing policy right then they wager

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Speaker 14: the economic effects result in result from a positive result

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Speaker 14: into a positive polling balance into twenty twenty six and

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Speaker 14: into the midterms, and you know, and whatever else you

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Speaker 14: have to say about what the Republicans are doing, one

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Speaker 14: thing they are counting on is the kind of the

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Speaker 14: relative scramble that the Democrats are in right now.

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Speaker 2: So you buy the White House analysis that the CBO

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Speaker 2: scoring on this does in factor in the economic benefit

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Speaker 2: they're talking about something like a three percent boost to

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Speaker 2: GDP from this legislation.

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Speaker 14: Well, you know, going back to certainly going back to

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Speaker 14: President Obama in twenty twelve, I remember this very clearly,

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Speaker 14: but I think it goes back much farther. There's always

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Speaker 14: been complaint from any occupant of the White house at

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Speaker 14: the CBO scoring is artificial, does not take growth into account,

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Speaker 14: as Secretary best And points out, doesn't take tariff revenues

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Speaker 14: into account. And you know, when you have a world

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Speaker 14: where the as the Wall Street Journal points out, where

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Speaker 14: the CBO score on extending salt turns out to be

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Speaker 14: turns out to lower the deficit, you know, you've got

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Speaker 14: a pretty You've got a fairly wacky and artificial system.

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Speaker 14: Whatever else you have to say about.

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Speaker 2: It, Okay, just quickly yay nay on whether this bill

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Speaker 2: passes out of the Senate today.

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Speaker 14: As we speak again, this.

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