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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Pat fitz Morris on Twitter at fits Underscore FFM.

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Speaker 1: That is BeO mcbrair on Twitter at bow Underscore Mcbig Time.

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Speaker 1: The PGA Tour returns to the mainland this week after

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Speaker 1: two weeks in Hawaii. It is the American Express. BO

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Speaker 1: and I are going to break it down from a

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Speaker 1: betting perspective. We'll also tell you who we like and

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Speaker 1: who we don't like. Well, we're going to tell you

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Speaker 1: who we like and who we don't like from a

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Speaker 1: betting angle. We're also going to give you our one

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Speaker 1: and done picks at the end of the show. So

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Speaker 1: the American Express. The MX is a multi venue event

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Speaker 1: in Lakita, California. For the first three days, the players

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Speaker 1: rotate between three courses, the Stadium Course at PGA West,

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Speaker 1: the Lakita Country Club, and the Nicholas Tournament Course. It

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Speaker 1: is a fifty four hole cut, so we get the

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Speaker 1: full field up until the final round on Sunday, at

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Speaker 1: which point everyone plays the Stadium Course at PGA PGA West,

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Speaker 1: a peat die track, and the Stadium course pretty much

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Speaker 1: the only course in this rotation that has cameras and

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Speaker 1: the shot tracker stuff for PJA, so basically we're flying

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Speaker 1: blind on the Lakita and Nicholas course stuff hard to

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Speaker 1: follow what's going on other than seeing the scores if

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Speaker 1: you're trying to track it. That's always a little bit

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Speaker 1: frustrating with this event, and these are relatively easy courses

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Speaker 1: bo especially Lakita and the Nicholas Course. The Stadium course

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Speaker 1: is short, a seven eighty seven yard par seventy two,

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Speaker 1: small greens, but everyone is hitting them anyway. Lakita a

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Speaker 1: seven thousand and sixty yard par seventy two, also short,

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Speaker 1: also small greens, and the Nicholas Course a seven and

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Speaker 1: fifty nine yard seventy two, also short, but with bigger

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Speaker 1: greens than the other two courses. So bottom line, this

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Speaker 1: is a birdie fest. We are going to see low scores.

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Speaker 1: Jon Rahm has called this tournament a putting contest, and well,

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Speaker 1: John Ram putted extremely well last year and won this

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Speaker 1: event with the score of minus twenty seven, one shot

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Speaker 1: better than Davis Thompson, two shots better than Xander Schoffley

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Speaker 1: and Chris Kirk, the winning scores here in recent years,

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Speaker 1: aside from John Ram two years ago. It was Hudson

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Speaker 1: Swafford at minus twenty three three years ago, Seawou Kim

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Speaker 1: also at minus twenty three and four years ago, Andrew

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Speaker 1: Landry at minus twenty six. You better get into the

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Speaker 1: twenties in red figures if you want any chance to

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Speaker 1: win Boa. We have talked privately about this not being

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Speaker 1: one of our favorite events on tour. To put it

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Speaker 1: as diplomatically as possible. That doesn't mean we don't want

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Speaker 1: to bet it. I'm eager to bet it, but I

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Speaker 1: think we are.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, We're so degenerated at this point that I'm actually

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Speaker 2: looking forward to betting this contest because where yeah, you

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Speaker 2: don't get a lot of the excitement that other tour

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Speaker 2: stops kind of have built in. This is kind of

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Speaker 2: set in the Coachella Valley, which is this is the

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Speaker 2: only time of year what's actually enjoyable down there. Most

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Speaker 2: of the year, it's one hundred and twenty degrees down

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Speaker 2: there in Lakita, and nobody wants to play these courses

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Speaker 2: nine months out of the year. But for January it's

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Speaker 2: going to be beautiful. The courses are easy, the greens

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Speaker 2: are lush. They've done everything in their power to make

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Speaker 2: this an event that attracts the most of the top

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Speaker 2: guys on the PGA tour who haven't defected to live.

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Speaker 2: So I am looking forward to betting some of these

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Speaker 2: lines because the books have kind of given us a

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Speaker 2: little alive branch this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a better field that we're used to out

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Speaker 1: of the AMEX. I think a lot of years it's

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Speaker 1: like in the past, I know, it was like, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know your you're betting or plan on one and done,

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Speaker 1: like take Bill Haas and uh that's it. But now

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Speaker 1: yeah it is. And Bill Hass is actually in the field,

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Speaker 1: by the way, but we're not betting him. I don't think. Uh,

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Speaker 1: I'm just.

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Speaker 2: Sad that Hudson Swafford, two time AMIX winner Hudson Swafford

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Speaker 2: is not in the field, which is disappointing to me

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Speaker 2: because I was going to be a great.

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Speaker 1: So disappointing. Yeah, sometimes it's the lesser events that I

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Speaker 1: actually do better on with betting bo the Green Brier,

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Speaker 1: the John Deere. You know, I love some of these

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Speaker 1: other events, the farmers and the majors, and I do

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Speaker 1: terribly betting them, and then it's these lesser events that

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Speaker 1: I clean up on. It's kind of strange how that works.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, so these certainly I think these would be

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Speaker 1: considered amazing courses by us if we were to play

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Speaker 1: them relative to the Muni across the street that I

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Speaker 1: play all the time. But for the touring pros, boy,

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Speaker 1: in the coming weeks, we're going to be seeing the

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Speaker 1: pros play some amazing tracks, some of the best on tour.

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Speaker 1: Pebble Beach, the South Course at Torrey Pines Riviera, those

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Speaker 1: are great courses. These are not courses that are going

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Speaker 1: to test the.

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Speaker 2: Steely nerves just mention those names.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yes, so we're not going to get goosebumps with

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Speaker 1: these three tracks. So, oh yeah, you've you've given me

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Speaker 1: some of your thoughts. Anything else besides the uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: the fact that this is going to be one of

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Speaker 1: the few times where it's temperate in this part of California.

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Speaker 2: For me, it's all about understanding how this tournament kind

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Speaker 2: of plays out where three three of the two of

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Speaker 2: the rounds are not at the stadium course, which is

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Speaker 2: kind of like a it's a Pete Die clone of

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Speaker 2: TPC Sawgress, but it's not nearly as difficult.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: The other two courses don't even have shot link like

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Speaker 2: you said, and that those two rounds are actually going

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Speaker 2: to be the difference for who wins this tournament. Because

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Speaker 2: if you get a guy who's favored to win the

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Speaker 2: same maybe he's got some really short odds, and he

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Speaker 2: doesn't go low at Lakita or at the Nicholas Course,

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Speaker 2: then you're done. That's it. I just drop the curtains already,

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Speaker 2: because this tournament, just like last week, is conducive to

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Speaker 2: a long shot winner. Because some of these great golfers

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Speaker 2: that are top ten in the world rankings, they're all here.

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Speaker 2: The problem is they might not be just as any

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Speaker 2: more likely to go super low on these courses than

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Speaker 2: somebody who's two hundred, three hundred and one. And that's

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Speaker 2: what makes this an absolute crap shoot. It's kind of

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Speaker 2: fun to bet because you can throw a shotgun approach

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Speaker 2: at a bunch of long shots to with minimal investment.

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Speaker 2: And just like some people hit last week with Grayson Murray,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't me but Grease and Murray popped up nowhere

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Speaker 2: on anybody's stat models but five one. And that you

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Speaker 2: just never know what Guys fighting for his status on

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Speaker 2: the tour and looking for that early season win to

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Speaker 2: get them in an exemption for the next two years.

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Speaker 2: That's what at stake at tournaments like this where these

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Speaker 2: very well known players maybe don't have the advantage that

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Speaker 2: the books imply.

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Speaker 1: We will get into the odds in just a moment,

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Speaker 1: but first, if you want a chance to win a

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Speaker 1: free one year premium Betting Pro subscription, you need to

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now comment

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Speaker 1: below on this video and that's it. We will be

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Speaker 1: announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make

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Speaker 1: sure to turn on those notifications so you can be

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Speaker 1: alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize.

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Speaker 1: All right, bo. Before we get into the ams, actually,

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Speaker 1: a quick recap of last week at the Sony Open.

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Speaker 1: Not a great tournament from us for us from a

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Speaker 1: betting perspective, bow neither of us had Grayson Murray, as

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, at those extremely long odds. Murray got himself

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Speaker 1: into a three man playoff with Ben On and Keegan

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Speaker 1: Bradley after stiffing a wedge to a couple of feet

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Speaker 1: on the seventy second hole the par five eighteenth, then

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Speaker 1: one on the first playoff hole, hit a terrible t

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Speaker 1: shot laid up, hit a sort of an indifferent wedge

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Speaker 1: to forty feet and dropped the forty footer. Ben On

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Speaker 1: could have forced a second extra hole with about a

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Speaker 1: three footer and didn't even scare the hole, just a

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Speaker 1: dead pull. And on On's normally a really good putter.

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Speaker 1: So that was you don't you know thing On's a

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Speaker 1: good potter and.

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Speaker 2: One of the worst cutters on tour. And that was

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Speaker 2: that was the that was the downfall of ben On

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Speaker 2: was getting to the green wasn't the problem for him?

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Speaker 2: A short game let him down.

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Speaker 1: Wasn't On up there in strokes game putting last year.

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Speaker 1: I might be wrong about that.

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Speaker 2: Maybe, Yeah, that's definitely not him. He's He's that surprised me,

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Speaker 2: zero percent, Yes, I was surprised. Murray drained the thirty

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Speaker 2: ninth or to get to force that pressure packed three

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Speaker 2: four footter for On, and you could see his knees

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Speaker 2: or trembling. That was a lot of just to keep

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Speaker 2: the just keep the dream alive. On a win, which

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Speaker 2: would have been been On's first PGA Tour victory, Grayson

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Speaker 2: Murray won his second event, I believe second or third,

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Speaker 2: but first in a long time. But yeah, good story

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Speaker 2: ben On terrible putter usually and that that really just

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Speaker 2: kicked that. That was disappointing because I had a little

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Speaker 2: bit of DFS writing on ben On and his success.

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Speaker 1: So it is so Grayson Murray wins, we'll see him

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Speaker 1: at the Masters. Great, I don't I don't think it was,

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Speaker 1: you know, a great week for us. On Friday night,

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Speaker 1: I did make a small bet on ben On to

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Speaker 1: win when he was plus six hundred, So yeah, that

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Speaker 1: that didn't work out. Well, he was the co leader

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Speaker 1: at the time. Didn't work out.

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Speaker 2: So I missed the playoff by one shot.

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Speaker 1: No, I know, just out of it. So let's not

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Speaker 1: speak of the Sony Open again until January of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Bow. And now we turn our attention to

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Speaker 1: the American Express. The favorites Scotty Scheffler once again with

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Speaker 1: the shortest odds in the field at plus five point fifty. Wow,

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Speaker 1: those are really short odds. Native Southern Californians Xander Schoffley

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Speaker 1: and Patrick Cantley are both at plus nine hundred. Justin

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Speaker 1: Thomas with his uneven twenty twenty three is back he

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Speaker 1: is plus eighteen hundred. Sung JM plus twenty two hundred

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Speaker 1: Min Wu Lee plus twenty five hundred, Tom Kim plus

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Speaker 1: twenty eight hundred and Jason Day plus three thousand bo.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any interest whatsoever in Scotty Scheffler at

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Speaker 1: those odds plus five point fifty and do any of

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Speaker 1: these favorites appeal to you?

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Speaker 2: So don't bet Scotty on short odds in a putting contest,

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Speaker 2: because if you look at every other metric besides putting,

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Speaker 2: he's number one in this field. We're talking about one

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Speaker 2: of the best ball strikers that we've ever seen play

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Speaker 2: the game of golf. He is one hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: ninth in this field in putting. So I don't have

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Speaker 2: much confidence that he's going to pull it all together

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Speaker 2: to give us a modest payout of five and a

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Speaker 2: half to one. I'm not there with Scotty until we

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Speaker 2: see more of a groove where we see Scotty make

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Speaker 2: putts four days in a row. Last time we saw

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Speaker 2: him at the Century, he made putts one and a

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Speaker 2: half days out of the four and it was encouraging

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Speaker 2: for a little bit, and then it went back to

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Speaker 2: this guy. Unless he's tapping in for Bertie, he is

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Speaker 2: not going to make a Bertie, and that's not going

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Speaker 2: to fly at Lakina. I love Xander Schoffley here. He

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Speaker 2: has extremely good event history here. He can't really say

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Speaker 2: course history because there's three courses. But being somebody who

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Speaker 2: grew up in the area, Xander and can't lee appeal

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Speaker 2: to me. But Xander at eleven to one just has

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Speaker 2: a little bit more of an advantage on the putting

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Speaker 2: and short game side on top of his ball striking.

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Speaker 2: There's eleven to one for a guy with this kind

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Speaker 2: of history at the MX. It's exactly what I'm starting

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Speaker 2: my betting slip with now.

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Speaker 1: At eleven to one. I like that. I was seeing

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Speaker 1: nine plus nine hundred on DraftKings this morning.

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Speaker 2: Just updated at eleven, So I'm gonna smash that number

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Speaker 2: while I have it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I like that because I don't know if there

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Speaker 1: was value on him at plus nine hundred. Now then

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Speaker 1: you're looking at what are the implied odds, Like he's

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Speaker 1: got to be basically ten percent to win the tournament

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Speaker 1: to get any value or eleven percent. Yeah, and I

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Speaker 1: don't know about that. I don't know what his true

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Speaker 1: odds of winning, probably a little bit south of ten percent,

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Speaker 1: but yeah, excellent players certainly have a decent shot, And

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Speaker 1: I totally agree with you and Scheffler. And this is

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Speaker 1: a familiar refrain because we were saying the same thing

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Speaker 1: at the Century, which was also sort of a putting contest,

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Speaker 1: also very low odds for Scotty Scheffler and bo I mean,

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Speaker 1: I know you love Scotty Scheffler. I think he's the

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Speaker 1: best ball striker on planet Earth. But who knows. It's

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Speaker 1: not to say that he couldn't repeatedly hit appro shots

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Speaker 1: to three feet this week, make those walk off at

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Speaker 1: the winner at minus twenty five. That could happen, but

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Speaker 1: it's probably going to be a putting contest, and Scotty's

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Speaker 1: probably not going to win a putting contest.

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Speaker 2: And that's kind of where I'm at is. Yeah, every

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Speaker 2: pretty much everyone who's watched golf in the last three

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Speaker 2: seasons can expect Scotty Scheffler to get hot at a

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Speaker 2: tournament he has no business winning like this one and

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Speaker 2: just dusting the entire field that is completely in the

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Speaker 2: realm of possibilities? Is it probable for what we're betting

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Speaker 2: on now? And that's what that's the business we're in

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Speaker 2: is trying to find out the best odds for increasing

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Speaker 2: our bankroll, and smart Betting says that you let Scott

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Speaker 2: win the Amex if he's so inclined, but you're not

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Speaker 2: going to bet on that because it's just it's a

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Speaker 2: loser's bet, it really is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I assume you want to wait on Justin Thomas

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Speaker 1: before getting back in on him after I mean, such

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Speaker 1: an uneven twenty twenty three season for him. He was

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Speaker 1: starting to get the wheels back on in September in

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Speaker 1: the playoff, played respectably at the Ryder Cup, but it

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Speaker 1: just seems like plus eighteen hundred is way too short

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Speaker 1: for a guy who was not in great form last year.

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Speaker 2: He has updated to twenty five, it's still too short

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Speaker 2: for me. I haven't seen him do anything of note,

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Speaker 2: especially compared to Sung JM, who's another guy who's a

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Speaker 2: favorite of mine at twenty to one here, and then JT. Postin.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned a couple of guys at thirty to one,

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Speaker 2: but JT. Postin has been absolutely on fire, and the

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Speaker 2: Postman delivers and he just saw sixty what's sixty one

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Speaker 2: sixty two on Sunday yesterday at the Son This guy's

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Speaker 2: scorching hot he's an incredible potter. He's got really good

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Speaker 2: chops from tee to green. That's the kind of the

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Speaker 2: combination of stats I'm looking to build for my betting

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Speaker 2: slips and my DFS lineups is stroke scheme from tee

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Speaker 2: to green and the correlation with strong putting or at

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Speaker 2: least streaky putting as of late, like the last thirty

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Speaker 2: six rounds. I'm not looking for anything farther back than that.

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Speaker 2: I just want to say, Okay, is he rolling the

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Speaker 2: ball well right now? And can he get from t

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Speaker 2: to green in fewer strokes than his opposition? JT Posting

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Speaker 2: at thirty to one I think is a smash play.

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Speaker 1: Posting is absolutely one of the best putters on tour,

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Speaker 1: and if this is indeed a putting contest, he's in

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Speaker 1: good shape for this. So yeah. Shoffley was third here

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Speaker 1: last year. Can't Ley has three top tens at the

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Speaker 1: Amex and his last four appearances. Sung jay IM's record

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Speaker 1: here is interesting. He's finished between tenth and eighteenth in

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Speaker 1: his last four trips here, So it's interesting with these guys.

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Speaker 1: I don't know the track record matters to me that

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Speaker 1: much on this course. Bo, would you agree with that

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Speaker 1: just because we've got the multi multiple courses, I'm looking

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Speaker 1: more form and what kind of game do these guys have?

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Speaker 1: What is the profile? What is the form?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's kind of again leads me to Sunjay

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Speaker 2: and more more of what have you done for me

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Speaker 2: lately than what he's done here, which is pretty good,

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Speaker 2: pretty decent history at the event. But I think some

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Speaker 2: Jay just lines up well with all these courses being

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Speaker 2: it's a second shot course again or second shot event

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Speaker 2: again where you're looking to get guys who can make

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Speaker 2: their own scoring opportunities on approach and Sung JM is

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Speaker 2: among the best in the world at the at the

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Speaker 2: yardages on approach that we're going to see here between

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Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty five and one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 2: five yards, Sung JM is live to win this thing.

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Speaker 2: And at twenty to one, that's where I'm at. That's

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Speaker 2: where I'm at here.

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Speaker 1: Download the free Betting pros app for iOS and Android

306
00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,720
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307
00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,040
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308
00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:14,200
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309
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:17,800
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310
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:22,480
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311
00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:26,040
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312
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,160
Speaker 1: the benefits of sportsbooks SYNC, download the Betting Pros app

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00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:32,879
Speaker 1: by visiting Bettingpros dot com, slash apps or search Betting

314
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Speaker 1: Pros in the app store. Let's talk about the large

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Speaker 1: and interesting group of players who were listed at plus

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Speaker 1: thirty five hundred on DraftKings as a Monday morning bo

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Speaker 1: Ricky Fowler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Final, Sam Burns, JG. Posten

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Speaker 1: who we just talked about, and Eric Cole. No one

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Speaker 1: in this group has an eye popping track record here,

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Speaker 1: but again, it's not really about track record at the

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Speaker 1: AMX as far as I'm concerned ball, it's guys who

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Speaker 1: can go low on easy courses at a decent price.

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Speaker 1: Anyone from this group who appeals to you.

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Speaker 2: So we've seen a shift where the guy to bet

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Speaker 2: in that group that you mentioned is actually Ricky Fowler,

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Speaker 2: who's tumbled all the way to sixty to one. And

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Speaker 2: that's that's insane for me because when I run my

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Speaker 2: stat model, Ricky Fowler is in the top ten, and

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Speaker 2: to see him go from thirty five to one down

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Speaker 2: to sixty to one, hammer hammer, hammer that away, because

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Speaker 2: that's one of the soft that's one of the softest

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Speaker 2: lines on this entire slate. Eric Cole at thirty five

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Speaker 2: is a great pick because he's another one of those

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Speaker 2: guys that can put the lights out and go low

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Speaker 2: on easy courses. And of course you can't mention an

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Speaker 2: easy course where where scoring is great than Tony without

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Speaker 2: Tony Now, Tony for now on an a place like this,

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Speaker 2: He's done well here before. That says mean as much

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Speaker 2: as if it's the Rocket Mortgage, or if it's the

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Speaker 2: John Deere, or if it's the American Express, Tony Fein

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Speaker 2: Now can get as hot as anybody in the world

342
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Speaker 2: and make a ton of birdies and eagles. And one

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Speaker 2: of the one of the stats that I logged in

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Speaker 2: pretty heavily to my model was par five scoring. These

345
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Speaker 2: par fives are right for the picking on all three courses.

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Speaker 2: Tony now one of the best par five players in

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Speaker 2: the world, and so that that shouldn't be any surprise

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Speaker 2: that I'd be betting him at thirty five to one.

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Speaker 1: What about Sam Burns, He has in his last three

350
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Speaker 1: trips here a sixth, a miscut, and an eleventh, and

351
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Speaker 1: he puts really well. Any interest in Sam Burns boh.

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Speaker 2: I did have interest in him because he did model

353
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Speaker 2: well for me as well until Ricky started tumbling down

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Speaker 2: to sixty and Sam staying steady at thirty to one

355
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,399
Speaker 2: is just too short for me. I think he's a

356
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,479
Speaker 2: solid play, but he's just like with the other guys

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Speaker 2: in the same range that even have better odds and

358
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Speaker 2: better payouts. I just can't do the Sam Burns leap

359
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 2: because his odds don't tell me it's favorable.

360
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Speaker 1: All right, some mid range plays with odds of plus

361
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,360
Speaker 1: five thousand or shorter. Cam Davis plus four thousand, Shane Lowry,

362
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Speaker 1: Daniel Berger, and Chris Kirk are plus forty five hundred

363
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,719
Speaker 1: and Seewoo Kim plus five thousand. What about this group?

364
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Speaker 2: It's full of guys I like but don't love. I

365
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,959
Speaker 2: want to see them. I want to see their odds

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Speaker 2: be a little more favorable. We have Auk Shaba Tea

367
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Speaker 2: at fifty five that I prefer over these guys, Andrew

368
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Speaker 2: Putnam fifty five. So for me, that tier is kind

369
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Speaker 2: of weak because they're kind of overpriced when the tier

370
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Speaker 2: next to them is underpriced. So if I'm making bets,

371
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Speaker 2: I'm betting on the longer odds, tipping the scale for

372
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Speaker 2: me on that one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but Tia is interesting, lurking on the leader board

374
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,919
Speaker 1: each of the two Hawaiian events. Now he returns to

375
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 1: the mainland. Do you think the price is right on him?

376
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,440
Speaker 1: Is he still at plus fifty five hundred at last check?

377
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and for me, that's that's perfect. That's right where

378
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 2: I want him to be any shorter than that, And

379
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 2: I'm not interested because the field is strong. This is

380
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 2: a stronger field than last week where he got thirteenth

381
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Speaker 2: at the Sony. We missed out on the top top

382
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 2: ten payout of on Akshay by one shot. I was

383
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 2: pretty upset about that. But Aksha being in that fifty

384
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:27,919
Speaker 2: five range is perfect for him. You don't really have

385
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 2: to invest a lot in the guy, but his talent

386
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:35,640
Speaker 2: is insanely high. He can't can't really shake your fist

387
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 2: at a guy who's playing that well, regardless of what

388
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 2: golf courses he's playing. He's going low everywhere he looks.

389
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 2: The new putter and putting stroke is working out well

390
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Speaker 2: for him. I just you can't get enough of him.

391
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 2: And until the sportsbooks start catching on to how good

392
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 2: he is, let's keep betting him because he's going to

393
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 2: keep paying off those top tens and top twenties at

394
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Speaker 2: the very least.

395
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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's been looking good with that broomstick. And as

396
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 1: you mentioned last week in our Sony Open preview bow,

397
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 1: he is a prodigy and he is destined to be

398
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 1: one of these guys who's coming in at plus twenty

399
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 1: five hundred, plus three thousand every week. Take the value

400
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 1: now while you can get it. I kind of like

401
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 1: Taylor Montgomery at plus fifty five hundred sixth here in

402
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 1: his debut, fifth in his debut here at the MX

403
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 1: last year. Good putter, tied for thirteenth at the Sony

404
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 1: last week with all four rounds in the sixties. Any

405
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 1: interest in Montgomery.

406
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 2: No, not at all. No, we're as good of a

407
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:38,880
Speaker 2: putter as he is. He's one of the best putters

408
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 2: in the world. He is a really solid short game.

409
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 2: One of the worst ball strikers on the PGA tour,

410
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 2: and that includes everybody with sponsors, exemptions, Monday qualifiers. You

411
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: throw everybody who's in that stratosphere of PGA Tour Golf,

412
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,919
Speaker 2: and Taylor Montgomery is a terrible ball striker. He's a

413
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 2: terrible off the tee. He's terrible on approach. He's just

414
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 2: he's the kind of guy where you look at it

415
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 2: and go yeah. Every once in a while he'll find fairways,

416
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 2: like at Wiley last week, where everybody's hitting long irons

417
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 2: off the tee. It's like, okay, yeah, he's less likely

418
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 2: to miss fairways and and miss his target when he's

419
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 2: hitting irons off the tee. Let's his short game. Shine

420
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:23,679
Speaker 2: these par seventy two scoring opportunities at a laquita. I

421
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 2: just don't see Taylor Montgomery holding served going low enough.

422
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 2: I think he's fine. It's just for all that he's

423
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 2: played for how poorly he's played the last calendar year,

424
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,919
Speaker 2: since the same event last year he did well, I

425
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 2: just don't see anyway he can score enough in this field.

426
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Speaker 1: Let me throw two more names at you ball once again.

427
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:52,360
Speaker 1: I'm going to bring up Alex Norin plus sixty five

428
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: hundred great ball striker statistically anyway, hasn't been a terrible

429
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Speaker 1: putter in the last couple of years. Not a fan.

430
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 2: So Alex Norn is the Dak Prescott of the PGA Tour.

431
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 2: The stats look great, but they're empty calories. I warn't

432
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 2: do about this last week with Norin where yeah, you

433
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 2: could run every stat model known to man, and Alex

434
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 2: Norn was going to be there at the Sony. He's

435
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 2: gonna pop up this week. He's a statistical marvel, but

436
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 2: you get him in crunch time and he folds like

437
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 2: a lawn chair. It's really it's unfathomable to see a

438
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 2: guy with that much talent and that in so many

439
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 2: flashes of brilliance without ever putting it all together. If

440
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 2: I'm betting in this range, I'm leaning more towards Adam

441
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 2: Shank at eighty to one. That's a more solid play

442
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 2: for me. Where a better, more rounded, well rounded golfer

443
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 2: with a little bit more of a heat. He's on

444
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 2: heat check status right now, and he's a good scoring

445
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,479
Speaker 2: part fives and he's got that nice combo of putting

446
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 2: and ball striking that I'm looking for this week.

447
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 1: Before we get into the long shots, well one more,

448
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 1: Adam hadwin plus six thousand. One of the best putters

449
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,960
Speaker 1: on the planet. He's finished second here twice. He also

450
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: has a third place and a sixth place finish. Again,

451
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: not a great ball striker, bought a pretty good frontgomery true, true,

452
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:21,439
Speaker 1: what do you think about that price?

453
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 2: I actually like Adam Hadwin this week. Fifty to one

454
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 2: is a nice solid number for him. Ten to one

455
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 2: top five, four and a half to one top ten,

456
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 2: those are all solid lines for a guy that has

457
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: played reasonably well over the last three seasons. He's a

458
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 2: very consistent player. I like Hadwin, especially in that.

459
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 1: Range long shots one hundred to one or greater, anyone.

460
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 2: You like, I have a couple. Austin Eckroch has no

461
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 2: business being one hundred and thirty to one with how

462
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 2: hot he is. Kind of like what we saw last

463
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 2: week with with some of these guys that came in

464
00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 2: like you're defending champion was last week was what fifty

465
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 2: to one, forty to one with se Wu And it

466
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 2: just seems like the books are kind of lagging behind

467
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:12,880
Speaker 2: prior results or even recent form. Austin Eckro's playing out

468
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 2: of his mind right now. He flashed he was one

469
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,360
Speaker 2: good roundaway from winning last week at the Sony. So

470
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty one Austin ekrote and then my

471
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 2: guy who's just the top twenty and cut making bet

472
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 2: machine Dylan Wu two hundred to one outright with a

473
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 2: couple bucks on his outright but top twenty bet and

474
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 2: make cut bet for sure on Dylan Wu.

475
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:39,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, solid last well, decent week at the Sony made

476
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: the cut. He's like, yeah, it didn't finish great, but

477
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 1: I like that play all right. One other I'm kind

478
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: of intrigued by Maddy Schmidt, the German bomber at thirty

479
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: to one. He is an absolute bomber. I don't know

480
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: how good he was with the flatstack Bowl, but he

481
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 1: did finish sixth year last year.

482
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's that's the guy I'm intrigued by as well,

483
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 2: because he's a par five just dominator. He loves par

484
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 2: fives and courses like this where the par fives are

485
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 2: eagle and birdie opportunities at the If you don't get

486
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 2: birdie on these part fives, you're you're going to be upset.

487
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 2: It's almost like a double bogie on a part four

488
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: because these these part fives are so gettable at all

489
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 2: three courses. So Matty Schmidt comes to play on the

490
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 2: par fives like we know him to be able to do. Yeah,

491
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 2: he can make some noise, especially at those triple digit odds.

492
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 2: I actually like that.

493
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, he's going to be hitting these par fives

494
00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: with five irons.

495
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 2: I think this guy it's going to be seven or

496
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 2: eight irons on some of these because these par fives

497
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 2: are short, They're only like five fifty. That's right, I'd

498
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 2: be hitting a five iron into those.

499
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 1: Pat all right, bo as of now, what do you

500
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 1: have on your betting card?

501
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:56,360
Speaker 2: So I'm I'm big on Xander at eleven, sun Jay

502
00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 2: at twenty, posting at thirty, Ricky at sixty, and then

503
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 2: smaller bets on Shank ech Rode and Dylan wu Nice.

504
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 1: I have posted at thirty. Jason Day outright only at thirty,

505
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 1: great puttern. When he's on, he's really on. So I'm

506
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 1: hoping he catches fire this week.

507
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 2: Le's get that appro scheme lined up again.

508
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,479
Speaker 1: He does Sam Burns plus thirty five hundred to win

509
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 1: and plus seven fifty for a top five. I locked

510
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,719
Speaker 1: him in at that this morning. Adam hadwin outright at

511
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: plus six thousand and plus twelve hundred for a top five,

512
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: and then I have a small bat on mister Maddy

513
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: Schmidt to win outright. So yeah, onto the one and

514
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 1: done picks Bow. You absolutely crushed me in Hawaii. Both

515
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 1: weeks you had Russell Henley at the Sony he was

516
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 1: good for a top five finish and three hundred and

517
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: seventy three thousand. I had Corey Connors made the cut

518
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 1: and finished fifty seventh or something and won eighteen thousand,

519
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 1: five hundred and ninety two dollars. So for the year

520
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 1: you were up over eight hundred thousand dollars and only

521
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: two events. I'm at about seventy thousand dollars. I have

522
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: some ground to make up. My turn to go first

523
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: this week bowl, I'm gonna go with Adam Hadwin give

524
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: me the hot potter in the pudding contest.

525
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't go against that. I think it's it's

526
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 2: a great one and done because, I mean, what other

527
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 2: event kind of lines up with Hey, it can happen

528
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 2: more than this one. Nick for for you needing to

529
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 2: catch up ground, this is this is a good pick

530
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 2: for you. But at least I'll give you a consolation prize.

531
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: You have at least made both cuts with your one

532
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 2: and done picks. It's not as good as a top

533
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 2: five in both events, but it's I mean it's commendable that,

534
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 2: like last year, I did one and done's for a

535
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 2: few months and I had so many miscuts that was demoralizing.

536
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 1: Well that's faint praise since the Century was a no

537
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: cut event. Bell, But I'll take it. Thank you, you

538
00:29:57,760 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: made a cut.

539
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: Good job, all right?

540
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: So who are you taking?

541
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Sunjaya.

542
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 1: Oh nice call, nice call. I like it. So those

543
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 1: are our plays for this week, our favorites and some

544
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: of our not favorites. And that is it for us.

545
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: Come join Bow and I again next week when we

546
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 1: will be previewing the Farmers Insurance Open at Tory Pines,

547
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,719
Speaker 1: one of those spectacular courses we were talking about, at

548
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 1: least the South course. Anyway, we can pass on the

549
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 1: North course, but you know they're going to get around

550
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: in there anyway. What are you going to do? So

551
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 1: that's it for us until then, So long everyone.

552
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

553
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

554
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

555
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,800
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556
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,560
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557
00:30:55,640 --> 00:31:10,960
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