1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 3 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then 4 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 2: Proudo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 3: We've been talking a lot, Joe about how the economy 7 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 3: was looking pretty good and yet the incumbent administration wasn't 8 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 3: getting credit for it. The question is are they going 9 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 3: to get the credit now that it does seem that 10 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 3: things are turning south. 11 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,239 Speaker 4: Well, that's true certainly in terms of the markets and 12 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 4: an economy that just seems to be slowing more quickly 13 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 4: than anyone was talking about even just a couple of 14 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 4: weeks ago here, and a big question about whether the 15 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 4: Fed has missed an opportunity with now some folks calling 16 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 4: for a rate cut before we even get to the 17 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 4: meeting in September, and those looking to September are talking 18 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 4: about fifty to twenty five at this point. Austin Goulesby 19 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:03,639 Speaker 4: spoke earlier to Michael McKee and Shannali Bossik as part 20 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,559 Speaker 4: of our coverage here on Bloomberg. He was really trying 21 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 4: to tamp down the fear. You know, a single data 22 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 4: point does not make a trend, and so forth the 23 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 4: Fed's got to be concerned about this too. 24 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, of course they will, presuming that they decide not 25 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 3: to make any decisions on reetcuts until their next meeting, 26 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 3: get another jobs report before then. But of course it 27 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 3: wasn't just the figures today. You had weak manufacturing data. 28 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 3: Yesterday you had initial jobless claims at levels that we 29 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 3: hadn't seen in some time. So it collectively is what 30 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 3: is causing markets to see a bit more of a 31 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 3: picture of things, things deteriorating and perhaps in a way 32 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 3: that the FED did not expect. 33 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 5: And it's one of those days. 34 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:42,680 Speaker 4: We're here on the Political Show. We're spending a lot 35 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 4: of time talking about the markets with a lot of crossover. 36 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 4: Kamala Harris may not be tweeting at j Powell the 37 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 4: way Donald Trump used to, or crowing about highs in 38 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 4: the stock market, but there are huge implications here, and 39 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 4: we want to start with Michael McKee, who, as I mentioned, 40 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: did talk to Austin Goulesby a little bit earlier. Michael, 41 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 4: this whole idea that the FED missed the opportunity. What 42 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 4: is the conversation at the FOMC today. 43 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 5: Well, the first thing they will tell you is what 44 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 5: they always say. We don't look at one data point 45 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 5: and make a decision or a conclusion based on that. 46 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 5: And so Austin Goulsby's reaction was, this was not a 47 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 5: great report, but it is not a terrible terrible report, 48 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 5: and overall, the economy still seems relatively strong. So let's 49 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 5: see what we get going forward. And it is true 50 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 5: that markets, their initial response to everything is basically to overreact, 51 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 5: as people pile in on a momentum trade, and then 52 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 5: you know, people start to pull back and think about 53 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 5: what they have actually seen. And so I think the 54 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 5: FED is expecting that as the weeks go on, we 55 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 5: will see a little more calm unless for some reason 56 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 5: jobless claims explode something like that, and then we'll get 57 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 5: another payrolls report at the beginning of September before the 58 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 5: next FED meeting, so they'll have an opportunity to see 59 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 5: if this is a one off kind of situation or 60 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 5: if this is a really bad trend. 61 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,399 Speaker 3: Well, it's not just markets that are reacting though, Mike. 62 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 3: It's not just traders here. It's also economists across Wall 63 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 3: Street banks that are essentially revising their forecasts for FED cuts. 64 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 3: You now JP Morgan and City calling for not just 65 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 3: a fifty basis point cut in September, but November two, 66 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 3: and potentially cutting in every meeting after that. How high 67 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 3: is the bar for the FED not just to cut, 68 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:33,959 Speaker 3: but to cut by half a point? 69 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 5: Well, Fed officials would say it is quite a high bar. 70 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 5: Jay Powell was asked about it at his news comforts 71 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 5: on Wednesday, and he said, we're not even thinking about 72 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 5: that right now. I think you would need several other 73 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 5: data points besides this one that told the FED that 74 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 5: the economy was really in trouble, and then they might 75 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 5: do fifty. The reaction was interesting because we had even 76 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 5: JP Morgan suggesting that maybe the FED wants to cut intermediate. 77 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 5: So we've gone from a fairly strong economy in Jay 78 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 5: Powell's view on Wednesday, to crisis and you know the 79 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 5: Fed's going to take a breather before it adopts any 80 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 5: crisis fighting activities. 81 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Michael McKee, our international economics and Policy correspondent, 82 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 3: thank you so much for walking us through how the 83 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 3: FED is likely viewing this as it is abundantly clear 84 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 3: how the market is viewing this today. Although it's not 85 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 3: just about jobs day. We also had some pretty disappointing 86 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 3: earnings from the likes of Intel that stock right now 87 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 3: down twenty seven percent on the day. For more, let's 88 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 3: bring in Jess Menton, who covers equities for us or 89 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 3: she is a sceenior reporter here at Bloomberg, So Jess, 90 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 3: obviously it's hard to kind of separate what's happening in 91 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 3: tech with what's happening in the wider market. To what 92 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 3: extent do we attribute this to micro and to macro. 93 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 6: Well, that's a great point, Kaylee, because obviously what we 94 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 6: were just talking about here with Mike meet Key and 95 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 6: especially the trend when it comes to data points like this, 96 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 6: that's what traders always want to say. And actually going 97 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 6: into the FED decision from FED chair to impound what 98 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 6: he was going to signal on Wednesday, a lot of 99 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 6: them were expecting a potentially sell the news type moment. 100 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:13,840 Speaker 6: We did get a huge rally that afternoon, but since then, 101 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:15,359 Speaker 6: of course a lot of people want to point to 102 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 6: some of these data points like the manufacturing data yester 103 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 6: and of course the jobs report this morning, but when 104 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 6: you had a huge run in really specuative corners of 105 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 6: the market, like the Russell two thousand, where everybody's been 106 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 6: talking about, especially the last year, wanting to see this 107 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 6: rally broaden out. But if you look at the Russell 108 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 6: in particular, of course it's been cheap, especially on the 109 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 6: valuation side for that, but because of the massive rally 110 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 6: and the historic outperformance it had relative to large caps 111 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 6: last month, it's not quite as cheap as it had been. 112 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,279 Speaker 6: So that was more of a trade than or longer 113 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 6: term investment, just because the earnings out look still remains elusive. 114 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,239 Speaker 6: So now a lot of traders are turning more toward 115 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 6: divid in type pain corners of the market that obviously 116 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 6: will benefit more toward rate cuts. So even though some 117 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 6: of the gains here for some of those dividen pairs 118 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 6: gave up some steam this morning, if you look at 119 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 6: the flows on a weekly basis, actually when it comes 120 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,479 Speaker 6: to utilities as well as real estate, they've been on 121 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 6: a tear and they are going to benefit. And of 122 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 6: course utilities obviously there's an aiplay element to that, but 123 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 6: even beyond some of the power and sort of renewable 124 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 6: side of that. If you think of gas utilities, water utilities, 125 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 6: those are ones that are doing very well right now, 126 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:18,280 Speaker 6: and that's where a lot of the money is flowing. 127 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:21,719 Speaker 4: No, I'm really glad that you brought up the IWM 128 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 4: in this case, Jess. There have been so many people 129 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 4: talking about a rotation over the past couple of weeks, 130 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 4: and the Tom Leeves of the world have been piling 131 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 4: money into small caps waiting for the moment that the 132 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 4: Fed starts to cut. It's down three and a half 133 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 4: percent again today on top of recent losses. Knowing that 134 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 4: something like half the components of the index don't make money, 135 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 4: is that trade actually over? 136 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 6: That's right, because a lot of that comes down to 137 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 6: the amount of zombie companies that are in the wrestled 138 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 6: two thousand. It's a little bit different if you look 139 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,039 Speaker 6: at the S and P six hundred that obviously holds 140 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 6: small cap companies. Those tend to generate better earnings growth. 141 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 6: But our own A Gmagena Martin Adams follows as well 142 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 6: as Mike Casper. Obviously, this cap story very closely here, 143 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 6: and a lot of that has to do with the 144 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 6: revenue outlook moving forward and especially not just large cap 145 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 6: in the midst of earning seasons, but also small caps 146 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 6: as well. But the issue there is when you have 147 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 6: companies like super Micro that were formally small cap stocks 148 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 6: that get very big as well as micro Strategy, and 149 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 6: they graduate from that index and move over to other 150 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 6: indexes like in the Russell one thousand, that makes it 151 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 6: harder for the earnings outlook overall for that particular index 152 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 6: to improve there. So that's where the side of the 153 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 6: equation because it's gotten more expensive now. So really it's 154 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 6: down to whether or not they deliver on the profit 155 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 6: as well as the revenue outlook. 156 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 4: We'll keep eyes on it with your help, Jessment, and 157 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 4: we do appreciate it. Bloomberg Senior Equities reporter with us 158 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 4: on a tough day here on Wall Street. This job's 159 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 4: day that we'll keep talking about throughout the hour here 160 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 4: along with politics, a big crossover here, Kaylee lions when 161 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 4: we consider the future prospects of Democrats, namely Kamala Harris 162 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 4: right now trying to jet up a campaign with a 163 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 4: huge influx of cash, but a messaging problem when it 164 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 4: comes to the biggest story, the biggest issue on the 165 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 4: campaign trail. That's inflation and the economy. Now the question 166 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 4: of the FED miss the mark. 167 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, And of course we're likely to hear a 168 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 3: lot about this from the Trump campaign in regard to 169 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 3: not just the economy, but the way in which he 170 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 3: would like to address it. What we've heard consistently from 171 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 3: the former president is this idea that deregulation is going 172 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 3: to be one of the ways that he tries to 173 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 3: bring prices down and help bolster the economy. And it's 174 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 3: regulators that we know have gotten a lot of scrutiny 175 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 3: from Republicans in general under this administration. 176 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 4: We consider the I on the consumer. We turn to 177 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 4: the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and a 178 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 4: conversation that we've been looking forward to bringing you here 179 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 4: on Bloomberg. Rohi Chopra is with us from world headquarters 180 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 4: in New York. Director Choprah, it's great to see you. 181 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 4: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. You've been an 182 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 4: awfully busy man recently putting forth new rules that apply 183 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 4: regulations to credit card late fees, buy now, pay later, 184 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 4: getting in advance on your paycheck, even large asset managers. 185 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 4: What's your priority this summer? 186 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 7: Well, one of the things that we're always going to 187 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 7: be focused on is trying to lower some of the prices, 188 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 7: including corporate gouging by some of these companies. We're seeing 189 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 7: how firms, including big credit card companies, exploiting old regulatory loopholes, 190 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:27,000 Speaker 7: even dating back decades, and we're putting a stop to 191 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 7: a lot of it. It's going to save households a 192 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 7: lot of money. We hear all the time from special 193 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 7: interests that there's going to be consequences that are harmful. 194 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 7: It's not going to bear out, because this is really 195 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 7: about making sure the laws being followed and consumers are 196 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 7: being treated fairly. 197 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 8: Well, of course, it doesn't really stop there. 198 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:49,719 Speaker 3: When we look at your agenda and the rules you've 199 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 3: been passing. Recently, you also made some proposed tweaks to 200 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 3: the change in Bank Control Act. Could you just clarify 201 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 3: as you're looking at these larger asset managers what this 202 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 3: change actually is going to mean in reality for the 203 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 3: likes of Blackrock or other giants out there. 204 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 7: Well, there's been a real rethinking when it comes to 205 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:12,199 Speaker 7: mergers and merger review. I used to serve as a 206 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:15,839 Speaker 7: commissioner on the FTC and the Status Quo five years 207 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 7: ago was just to be a rubber stamp, but we're 208 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 7: now seeing much more rigorous merger review across sectors, and 209 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 7: when it comes to banks, that's no different. We're looking 210 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 7: much harder at all sorts of bank acquisitions to make 211 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 7: sure that it's not reducing competition, that consumers can get 212 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 7: good rates no matter where they go. Now you ask 213 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 7: specifically about Blackrock and other big asset managers, we're really 214 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 7: starting to scrutinize whether these companies are truly being passive 215 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 7: part of the way they can have avoided scrutiny of 216 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 7: their acquisitions, As they say, we're not doing this to 217 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 7: take control like a normal merger or normal acquisition. We're 218 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 7: just to passive investor. But we want to make sure 219 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 7: that they're truly being passive and not the ones calling 220 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 7: the shots. 221 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 4: I want to ask you about buy now, pay later, 222 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 4: which has been such a massive trend in companies like 223 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 4: a firm have been rewarded for it on Wall Street. 224 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 4: Your new rules are somewhat interpretive here, and some consumer groups, 225 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 4: even some banks, have asked you to strengthen these rules 226 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 4: to go a bit further to mandate a borrowers' ability 227 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 4: to repay for instance, and even bring firms like the 228 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 4: one I mentioned under your direct supervision. Is that something 229 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 4: that should happen well. 230 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 7: By now pay later got big during the pandemic. It 231 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 7: grew about tenfold from twenty twenty nineteen to twenty twenty one, 232 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 7: and we're seeing it as an option in almost every 233 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 7: single online checkout. But you know, buy now, Pay later 234 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 7: has to be treating people. They have to be upfront 235 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 7: with all the key terms. So we're making it very 236 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 7: clear that no matter what you call yourself, you have 237 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 7: to make sure you follow the laws that apply to credit. 238 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 7: We think there are tens of billions of dollars of 239 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 7: transactions that buy now, pay later consumers are really on 240 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 7: the hook for so I do think we're going to 241 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 7: have to keep scrutinizing these firms. But at the end 242 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 7: of the day, we want it to be an option 243 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 7: for people that they can compare side by side, and 244 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 7: we want these companies to compete on service and price 245 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 7: and not exploit regulatory loopholes. 246 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 3: Well, sir, of course, when we consider buy now, Pay Later, 247 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 3: it plays into this entire notion of the fact that 248 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 3: consumers are piling up on debt more now that all 249 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 3: those pandemic air savings have been depleted, and especially in 250 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 3: light of data that we're seeing, including what we got 251 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 3: a softer jobs report today, are you worried for your 252 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 3: perch looking at consumer and their consumers and their financial health, 253 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 3: that real cracks are starting to emerge, that we could 254 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 3: start to see more delinquencies. Now, what are you bracing for? 255 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,439 Speaker 7: It's really interesting of two years ago, we really thought 256 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,200 Speaker 7: those delinquencies were going to accelerate much more quickly, and 257 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 7: in fact we have returned to normal in some places. 258 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 7: I do see some worries, some signs in subprime auto, 259 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 7: in parts of the credit card market, but we're going 260 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:33,960 Speaker 7: to be fixated to look at where that debt is 261 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 7: and how it's performing. I do worry that some of 262 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 7: the credit card interest rates that people are paying are 263 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 7: just so much higher than they were paying before, and 264 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 7: that's not just due to changes in monetary policy. Credit 265 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:51,199 Speaker 7: card issuers have pumped up the margins that they've been 266 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,560 Speaker 7: charging now and Americans are paying about one hundred and 267 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 7: five billion dollars just in interest, and often that interest 268 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 7: can really put them on a treadmill. So we are 269 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 7: looking hard at credit cards, at auto loans, and of 270 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 7: course mortgages. So far, we see a little bit of 271 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 7: stress and we want to make sure we're taking the 272 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 7: right steps that it doesn't spread. And I will just 273 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 7: share there's just no question that the higher rate environment 274 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 7: has really hit American households on all types of things, 275 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 7: of course mortgages being the biggest, but credit cards and 276 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 7: auto loans really hitting people's pockets. 277 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 4: I want to ask you in our remaining moment or 278 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 4: so ro hit about funding. Now that the Supreme Court 279 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 4: has validated the bureau's funding structure, I wonder if you 280 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 4: feel more confident moving forward with rulemaking and what would 281 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 4: happen if Donald Trump was elected president. 282 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 7: Well, you know, we did prevail in the Supreme Court 283 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 7: in a decision authored by Clarence Thomas that made totally 284 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 7: clear that our funding is lead go. I really think 285 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 7: the banking industry has benefited from the CFPB. We really 286 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 7: have taken out a lot of scammers and fraudsters and 287 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 7: really focused on some of the pain points for consumers 288 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 7: that they're facing. So, you know, I don't like to 289 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 7: predict about what will happen in the future, but well 290 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 7: here's what I will say. The work that we've been 291 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,200 Speaker 7: doing to take on some of these junk fee abuses, 292 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 7: to let people switch their banking products and credit cards 293 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 7: more easily, to embrace how new technology can open up 294 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 7: new opportunities. That's only controversial in Washington everywhere else. That's 295 00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 7: what they want to see their government do is look 296 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 7: to the future and help people protect their finances so 297 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 7: that they can build their future. 298 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 3: All right, Director Tropra, we appreciate you joining us here 299 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 3: on Balance of Power. Thank you so much for your time, sir, That, 300 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 3: of course is row hit Chopra, director of the Consumer 301 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 3: Financial Protection Bureau, joining us today from New York. I'm 302 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 3: Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington. Will have 303 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 3: much more still ahead on today's week jobs report, in 304 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 3: the Potential political Ramifications, our signature political panel, Rick and 305 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 3: Genie are next. On Bloomberg TV and radio. 306 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 307 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 308 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 2: and Enroid Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can 309 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 2: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 310 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 2: York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven. 311 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 4: Thirty alongside Kaylee Lines. In Washington, where we turn our 312 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,000 Speaker 4: attention back to the campaign trail. All this economic news 313 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 4: and the direction of the markets resonating along with the 314 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 4: idea of a debate. We still don't even have a 315 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 4: running mate here, and the back and forth between the 316 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 4: Kamala Harris campaign and the Donald Trump campaign has been 317 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 4: pretty rich. We just got a statement, in fact from 318 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 4: the Harris for President camp, from co chair Cedric Richmond. 319 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:07,199 Speaker 4: Donald Trump needs to man up, he writes. Since he 320 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 4: talks the talk, he should walk the walk. And, as 321 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 4: Vice President Harris said earlier this week, say to her 322 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,880 Speaker 4: face September tenth, she'll be there waiting to see if 323 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:20,400 Speaker 4: he'll show up, injecting now the prospect of an empty 324 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 4: share debate. This statement follows something Donald Trump said this 325 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 4: morning to Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business. 326 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 2: Let's listen. 327 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 9: Are you going to debate her? 328 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 1: Well? 329 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 10: I want to. 330 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: I will. 331 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 10: Leading in the polls, it seems by quite a bit. 332 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 2: Still, she's better than he is, but I think ultimately 333 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:41,440 Speaker 2: she'll be worse than him. 334 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,640 Speaker 11: She's more radical than him. 335 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 3: All right, So let's get into this now with our 336 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 3: signature political panel on this Friday, Joe Jeanie Shanzo, Senior 337 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,720 Speaker 3: Democracy Fellow with the Center of the Study of the 338 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 3: Presidency in Congress and Rick Davis Stonecourt, Capital Partner. 339 00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 8: Always a great to see you too. 340 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 3: On a Friday as we look ahead to September tenth 341 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 3: and wonder if we're going to see anything at all 342 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 3: that night. Jeanie, do you really think this depends on 343 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:06,400 Speaker 3: the polls? 344 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 12: It should depend on the polls, And if you're looking 345 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 12: at the polls, they are neck and neck, whether they 346 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 12: are national or in the swing states. We've seen and 347 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 12: even in the Bloomberg Pole where the trajectory is much 348 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 12: more positive for Kamala Harris than it was for Joe Biden. 349 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 12: So if you're going to go buy what Donald Trump said, 350 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:31,360 Speaker 12: he should be out there to debate her on September tenth, 351 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 12: And I hope he is. I think the fact is 352 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 12: that his campaign advisors are telling him he only is 353 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:39,919 Speaker 12: going to lose by debating her, so he's trying to 354 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:42,639 Speaker 12: come up with some excuse to avoid that. But in 355 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 12: the end, Kaylee, I hope we see it because it's 356 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 12: going to be must watch TV. 357 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:52,400 Speaker 4: Well, that's for sure. 358 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 2: Rick. 359 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 4: What's your take on this, because I know that you 360 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:59,880 Speaker 4: wouldn't put Donald Trump in the ring with Kamala Harris. 361 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 4: But if he's not leading on the polls, won't he 362 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 4: have to. 363 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 10: Yeah, just to take a step back, I think every 364 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 10: presidential candidate, the nominee of the two major parties, has 365 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,399 Speaker 10: an obligation to the public to debate. 366 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: Right. 367 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,360 Speaker 10: This is not just about who's ahead and who's behind. 368 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 10: I mean, those are technical consequences of saying yes or 369 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 10: no to a debate request, but there's an overriding public 370 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 10: interest here. The public should be able to see Donald 371 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 10: Trump in action and Kamala Harrison action and make judgments 372 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 10: based on that, and they should be after they've been nominees, 373 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 10: not before, and it should be a part of the 374 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 10: fall election. That is our tradition as a democracy. And 375 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 10: so that's saying I don't think there's going to be 376 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 10: a debate because I don't think it's in Donald Trump's interest. 377 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 10: I think he probably is concerned with his ability to 378 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 10: debate head to head Kamala Harris, and I'm pretty confident 379 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 10: that he's not going to believe that that debate's going 380 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 10: resulting and uplifting the polls, if anything, maybe downlift down 381 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 10: draft And why take the risk in September October. Look, remember, 382 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 10: he's going to say he won no matter what the 383 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 10: outcome is, So why do anything that gets in the 384 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 10: way of you know, his narrative about he's already won 385 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 10: this election. 386 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 3: Does what applies to Donald Trump brick also apply to 387 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 3: his vice presidential nominee JD. 388 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 8: Vance. 389 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 3: Do you expect we'll see Vance on a stage with 390 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 3: whoever Kamala Harris decides is going to be her running 391 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:31,120 Speaker 3: mate in the next few days. 392 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 10: I doubt it. I think that what's good for the 393 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 10: goose is good for the gander. And in this case, 394 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 10: my guess is that because we don't have a Commission 395 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 10: on Debate sponsoring these debates, I've already rejected their participation. 396 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 10: Then it would be up to the two campaigns to 397 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 10: formulate a strategy around trying to put a debate together. 398 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 10: And you know, in this case, I can't imagine Donald 399 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:01,359 Speaker 10: Trump wouldn't understand that if the VP debate, there's going 400 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,720 Speaker 10: to be immense pressure on him to do the same, 401 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:08,400 Speaker 10: and so he'd only be hurting his own prospects if 402 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 10: he's trying to avoid a debate by letting the Lightning Advanced. 403 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 4: Debate the debate is not all Donald Trump has been 404 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 4: talking about in the last twenty four hours. Yesterday we 405 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 4: were describing him doubling down on his questioning of Kamala 406 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 4: Harris's racial identity. Today he is tripling down, I guess, 407 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 4: is the only way to put it. Posting a photo 408 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 4: on truth Social of Kamala Harris dressed in a sary 409 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 4: with a caption saying, your warmth, friendship, and love of 410 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 4: your Indian heritage are very much appreciated unquote. Also reposting 411 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 4: stuff from Laura Lumer with copies of Kamala Harris's birth certificate. 412 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:51,200 Speaker 4: This is starting to sound familiar, spreading accusations as well 413 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 4: that Kamala Harris lied about her race. We were all 414 00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,959 Speaker 4: commenting on a X post from Simon Biles saw Jeanie 415 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 4: after winning her ninth Olympic medal. Quote, I love my 416 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 4: black job with a black heart. Where is this whole 417 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,120 Speaker 4: thing going? How do you go beyond the tripling down 418 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 4: on this strategy for Donald Trump? 419 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: Yeah? 420 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 12: First of all, what a night for Simon Biles. That 421 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 12: was just amazing to watch, So proud of her, you 422 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 12: know it was, I loved it. So the you know, 423 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:29,719 Speaker 12: the the reality as we are back to the future 424 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 12: with Donald Trump. And it's unfortunate for Republicans because if 425 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 12: you're looking at a strategy to take on Kamala Harris 426 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 12: in a serious way, this repeat of the birtherism dressed 427 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 12: as something else is not the way to do it. 428 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 12: What is Bloomberg talking about today? They are talking about 429 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 12: these numbers and the impact on the market. You've seen 430 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 12: people like Jason Smith, You've seen people like Rick Scott 431 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 12: try to tie this to Kamala Harris. I don't happen 432 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 12: to agree, but wouldn't those kinds of policy approaches be 433 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 12: much more effective for Donald Trump? And instead he goes 434 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 12: back to his quite frankly racist tropes and who seems 435 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,119 Speaker 12: to be frightened of taking on a woman on the 436 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,200 Speaker 12: debate stage again. And so here we go again. And 437 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:25,600 Speaker 12: so I think it's unfortunate for Republicans, quite frankly, who 438 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 12: are going to have to go through this, but we 439 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 12: have to face it. He's what he set out to do, 440 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,679 Speaker 12: which is to gain a lot of free media attention 441 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 12: on the back of this. 442 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 8: Well, certainly attention is being paid. 443 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:37,959 Speaker 7: Now. 444 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 3: Speaking of media attention, some media breaking news for you. 445 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 3: Headlines just crossing the Bloomberg terminal that Kamala Harris has 446 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 3: enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination. This, of course, 447 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 3: is the DNC had their virtual role call underway. They 448 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,879 Speaker 3: were close voting on her nomination on Monday, the DNC 449 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,320 Speaker 3: chair Jamie Harrison saying he's proud to confirm that Harris 450 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 3: earned more than a majority of votes from all conventions 451 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 3: delegates and will be the nominee following that close of voting. Now, 452 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,479 Speaker 3: of course we're looking to Monday to figure out when 453 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 3: she may make a vice presidential pick. 454 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:09,040 Speaker 8: Genie. 455 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 3: But there's also things swirling about a potential cabinet, including 456 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 3: a Washington Post op ed today in which Jamie Diamond, 457 00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 3: the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, makes the case for 458 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 3: someone from the private sector getting a cabinet seat. He writes, 459 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 3: in part quote, the private sector is huge, wells of 460 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 3: expertise and produces eighty five percent of our nation's jobs. 461 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,200 Speaker 8: It should have a seat at the table. What do 462 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 8: you think about that, Genie? 463 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 12: I am so glad he wrote this piece. I think 464 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 12: the idea that we need to restore faith in America 465 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 12: is something we can all get behind. I think there's 466 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 12: a lot of questions about how best to do that. 467 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 12: I think it is really important to consider having representation 468 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 12: from the private sector in the government and in the cabinet. 469 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 12: So I think that makes good sense. I of course 470 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 12: have my own view of what we need to do, 471 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 12: which I'm happy to talk to mister Diamond about, which 472 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 12: is restructuring. But I do think diversity in the cabinet 473 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:14,159 Speaker 12: by way of background and talent is critically important. I 474 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,680 Speaker 12: don't think we can forget We've had that in the 475 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,280 Speaker 12: recent past, and we've had that historically. I don't know 476 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 12: if it's enough, but it may be a good first step. 477 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 4: Presidents may invite executives over to the White House for 478 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 4: counsel rick, but they're not going to allow private sector 479 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,400 Speaker 4: at the table in the cabinet, are they. 480 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 1: Sure? 481 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 10: Yeah, there's a strong tradition of private sector individuals serving 482 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 10: and cabinets high level posts throughout any administration, and. 483 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:47,399 Speaker 4: I think about representing the private sector, you know, it's it's. 484 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 10: It would be an interesting twist. It is basically what 485 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 10: the Secretary of Commerce is charged to do, right, is 486 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 10: to promote and represent the business interests, both domestically and abroad. 487 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 10: So they're they're there are a lot of components to 488 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 10: that right. Obviously, our trade negotiators do the same thing 489 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,920 Speaker 10: on trade issues, so there is already a pretty significant 490 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 10: focus by the federal government in the private sector lives 491 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 10: of business community. But at the end of the day, 492 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,440 Speaker 10: the real question, I think is not whether or not 493 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,280 Speaker 10: their views are held, or whether or not the approach 494 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 10: to government is going to be heavy regulation or lighter regulation. 495 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 10: That is one of the fundamental differences between potentially a 496 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,879 Speaker 10: President Harris and a President Trump. And I think, you know, 497 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 10: if we could get back to talking about the issues 498 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 10: in this campaign, those would be the kinds of things 499 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 10: I think that could draw a lot of voters to 500 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 10: one side or the other. 501 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 4: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzena will be back with us 502 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,200 Speaker 4: in the late edition of Balance of Power that starts 503 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 4: at five pm Washington Time. Any thanks to both of you. 504 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast live 505 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 2: weekdays at noon Eastern on Emo CarPlay and then Roud 506 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 2: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 507 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 508 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 3: We are trying to see some positive spin on this 509 00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 3: coming from the Biden administration, at least from the Acting 510 00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 3: Secretary of Labor Julie Sue, who was here on Bloomberg 511 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 3: TV and Radio earlier today and had this to say 512 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 3: about the softer print. 513 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 2: We'll continue. 514 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 11: You know that there's continued work left to do to 515 00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,720 Speaker 11: make sure that we maintain a strong economy. But we're 516 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 11: still at a three month average of above the number 517 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 11: that President Biden said a year ago we need to 518 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 11: be to have a sustainable, strong labor market in a 519 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 11: strong economy. 520 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 4: Let's get the word from Bloomberg Economics, where Anna Wong 521 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 4: is the chief US economist. Anna, it's good to see 522 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 4: you on this job's day. I've been asking you indicator 523 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,919 Speaker 4: after indicator after data point, is this the soft landing? 524 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 2: I have to ask you now, is this the hard landing? 525 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 1: I think it's looking like that way. So you have 526 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 1: seen the narratives of soft lending completely appended by all 527 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 1: the data this week, and a lot of people, a 528 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,919 Speaker 1: lot of economists who had previously that that seft lending 529 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:25,879 Speaker 1: was shoeing, is now sounding quite panicky. So I think 530 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,639 Speaker 1: this is our view, is that the saw rule or 531 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 1: whatever recession rules had long other recession rules have long 532 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: been triggered. I think the non linear point in the 533 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 1: labor market and the unemployment where things should go sharply 534 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 1: deteriorate thereafter that point has already passed. The Fed has 535 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 1: an opportunity to cut in July, but they didn't take it, 536 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 1: and even doing so, they probably were late. But now 537 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 1: they're definitely late. And this is the reason why market 538 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 1: pricings are dramatic for dramatic fifty BIPs rate cut in September. 539 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,120 Speaker 1: And there's even some options now pricing for an inter 540 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 1: meeting period cut before the September meeting. 541 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, well that's something that Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is 542 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,120 Speaker 3: pushing for. She posted on Next Today that the Pale 543 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 3: meeting serious mistake not cutting interest rates. He'd been warned 544 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 3: over and over that waiting too long risks driving the 545 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,320 Speaker 3: economy into the ditch. The job's data is flashing red. 546 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,520 Speaker 3: She goes on to say, Anna pal needs to cancel 547 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 3: his summer vacation and cut rates now, not wait six weeks. 548 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 8: What's more likely in your mind. 549 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,320 Speaker 3: That the Fed would move ahead with an intermeeting cut, 550 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:42,280 Speaker 3: or that they would cut fifty full basis points at 551 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 3: the next one. 552 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 1: I think I think both are not our baseline. So 553 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 1: there are two things to think about. One is what 554 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 1: the FEED should do versus what the FED will do. 555 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 1: In terms of should do, yes, the FED should be 556 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 1: cutting fifty BIPs to catch up for the missed cuts 557 00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:59,600 Speaker 1: that they should have done. But in terms of what 558 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 1: they will do, we have heard from Powell and from 559 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 1: his body language and from his words, he was very 560 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 1: clearly that he and the other committee members are very 561 00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 1: far away from thinking about the fifty bitch cut. It 562 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 1: is a possibility, though, so in this case, I think 563 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 1: the market is ahead of itself and definitely the chance 564 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 1: for an inter meeting cut is even slimmer. Note that 565 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:26,280 Speaker 1: we still have two more inflation report and another adopts report. 566 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: I think that while the increase in unemployment rate today 567 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,080 Speaker 1: to four point three percent, a lot of it is real, 568 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 1: reflecting underlying weakness in the labor market. A little bit 569 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 1: of that is due to the hurricane barrel, which could 570 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 1: revert in the next meeting. But I think all in all, 571 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 1: I think the trend is stole for the unemployment rate 572 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: to reach four point five percent by the end of 573 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 1: this year, compared to the FED forecastle four point zero percent. 574 00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 1: Back in June. 575 00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 3: Well, how quickly things can change and won of Bloomberg Economics, 576 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,640 Speaker 3: our chief US economists, thank you so much for joining 577 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:05,880 Speaker 3: us on this job's day. And of course we've been 578 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 3: speaking so much Joe before today, even about the notion 579 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 3: that if the Fed were even to cut twenty five 580 00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:15,240 Speaker 3: basis points in September, given the proximity to the election, 581 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 3: that it could be seen as political. How political would 582 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:20,280 Speaker 3: a fifty basis points. 583 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 4: Regiment be seen as or one that doesn't even happen 584 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:25,800 Speaker 4: in a meeting that's been a long time since we've 585 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,960 Speaker 4: had one of those, And imagine what headlines could be 586 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,280 Speaker 4: about on a day when that happens. It's going to 587 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 4: get more precarious as we draw our way closer here, 588 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 4: but we'll obviously be covering this very closely in Washington 589 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 4: at the same time as we cover this campaign. And 590 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 4: we had breaking news a short time ago Kamala Harris 591 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,200 Speaker 4: gathering the delegates needed in a virtual role call to 592 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,360 Speaker 4: actually secure the Democratic nomination, which makes us ask, of course, 593 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 4: what's Chicago all about anyway. Kristen Hawn is with us. 594 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 4: I'm glad to say partner at Rock Solutions, one of 595 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 4: the most connected Democratic operatives in Washington who we've stayed 596 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,400 Speaker 4: in touch with closely since this turnabout at the top 597 00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 4: of the Democratic ticket. And christ and I wonder your 598 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 4: thoughts now that Kamala Harris technically has it in the bag. 599 00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:11,640 Speaker 4: She's got three hundred million dollars from the last month 600 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 4: and she's now challenging Donald Trump to a debate. But 601 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,800 Speaker 4: headlines like we have today on the job market, concerns 602 00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:22,400 Speaker 4: about interest rates, the potential for a recession to coincide 603 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:26,160 Speaker 4: with this election, leaves us with a fraught landscape. 604 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 2: Doesn't it. 605 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 9: I mean, I think and jobs in the economy are 606 00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 9: always going to be central to any any candidate, any election, 607 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,200 Speaker 9: any presidential election, and who wins. So you know, I 608 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,959 Speaker 9: think she's had a really she's a very strong candidate. 609 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 9: Democrats are united behind her. There was no question that 610 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 9: she was going to be the nominee going into this 611 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 9: process today through the weekend. But you know, at the 612 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:47,360 Speaker 9: end of the day, and she has and she will 613 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 9: And if you see stuff coming out of the campaign 614 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 9: you need to talk about, you know, kitchen table issues, 615 00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 9: which are you know, are people able to survive in 616 00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,160 Speaker 9: this economy? Are they able to put food on the table, 617 00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 9: and that will be central to any you know, the 618 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 9: campaign going forward. 619 00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,400 Speaker 3: Well, so, when we consider that she effectively is the 620 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,280 Speaker 3: incumbent here since Biden is not running, to what extent 621 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 3: will she face the same amount of blame that Joe 622 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 3: Biden was getting for the economy from serving as his 623 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 3: vice president. Our voters likely to see any real difference 624 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 3: between them on this issue. 625 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:19,760 Speaker 9: I think that they will. I mean, I think that 626 00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,400 Speaker 9: she certainly won't get the same criticisms that Biden will. 627 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 9: She's in a lot of ways. When we go to 628 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 9: Chicago introducing herself to the American people and has the 629 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,560 Speaker 9: opportunity to talk about what she might do going forward, 630 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 9: might do differently. I don't think there's the same amount 631 00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,040 Speaker 9: of baggage there, but there's some to overcome for sure. 632 00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 4: Talk to us about the debate. We had a conversation 633 00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 4: with Rick and Jeannie about this earlier this hour. Donald 634 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,480 Speaker 4: Trump's telling Fox Business News today. 635 00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 2: That why should he debate? 636 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:50,479 Speaker 4: He's up in the polls. They already know who we are. 637 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 4: Of course, he could have said the same thing with 638 00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:56,040 Speaker 4: more credibility. Actually, when it came to himself and Joe Biden, 639 00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:59,600 Speaker 4: She's goading him the campaigns out with a statement essentially 640 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 4: calling him a scaredy cat. What triggers Donald Trump to 641 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 4: the stage? 642 00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 9: I mean, I think, you know, calling him a scaredy 643 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 9: cat triggers him to the stage. But I think he 644 00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,280 Speaker 9: never likes to look weak. And when she is looking 645 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,479 Speaker 9: straight to camer like she did in her rally and said, 646 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 9: if you want to say something to me, say it 647 00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:20,560 Speaker 9: to my face. I think in this, in this circumstance, 648 00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 9: him not debating her makes him look weak, and he 649 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,440 Speaker 9: doesn't like to look weak. I also like her chances 650 00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,960 Speaker 9: going into this debate of looking very strong coming out 651 00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 9: of that, and that's something that will be, you know, 652 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 9: very different than what we saw on the last debate. 653 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 9: I think you see President Trump talking a lot about 654 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:39,239 Speaker 9: you know, he keeps wanting to reference Biden, and it's like, 655 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,080 Speaker 9: you're not running against Biden anymore, You're running against Kamala Harris. 656 00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 9: So you know, I think there's a reason why they 657 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 9: don't want to do it. And he might actually have 658 00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 9: to prep for. 659 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:46,879 Speaker 1: This one well. 660 00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:48,600 Speaker 3: And it's not just a question of whether we're going 661 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,640 Speaker 3: to see the presidential candidate's debate, but vice presidential as well, 662 00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,560 Speaker 3: we don't know if we'll see Senator JD. Vance on 663 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:57,759 Speaker 3: the stage with dot dot dot whoever she picks by 664 00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 3: next Tuesday, we expect. 665 00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,160 Speaker 8: What are you hearing on that front, Kristen. 666 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 9: I, you know, I think she's having these conversations. We 667 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:09,600 Speaker 9: have just so many great, you know, people out there 668 00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:11,520 Speaker 9: that can fill this role, and it's all about who 669 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 9: she feels comfortable with, who makes the ticket stronger. You know, 670 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,200 Speaker 9: it's not necessarily are you a governor or a senator, 671 00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,600 Speaker 9: It's it's you know, what maybe can that person do 672 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 9: to fill up some of the gaps, and she believes 673 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,320 Speaker 9: makes the ticket stronger. And I would take any of 674 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:30,279 Speaker 9: these people that were discussing up against Shade Vance like 675 00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:31,319 Speaker 9: all day long, every day. 676 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,759 Speaker 4: Uh I mentioned the nominating contest. Do you worry about 677 00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,360 Speaker 4: the impression that that makes Why not wait to Chicago 678 00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,080 Speaker 4: and actually have a real role call out for what happened. 679 00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,239 Speaker 4: These are extraordinary circumstances for Democrats this time. 680 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,600 Speaker 9: They are I don't think it's going to make that 681 00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 9: much of a difference on this. 682 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:48,359 Speaker 4: A smack of backroom deals. 683 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,879 Speaker 9: It doesn't. And honestly, I know this is getting into 684 00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,080 Speaker 9: the nitty gritty of it. But you know, if you 685 00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 9: look at Ohio, there was a chance that you know, 686 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 9: if we didn't do this, and then if people don't 687 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,719 Speaker 9: remember we had to delay the Democratic mention because of 688 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,719 Speaker 9: the Olympics. So this is way later than normally would 689 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,239 Speaker 9: have happened. So the decision was made back in the fall. 690 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,200 Speaker 9: I'm sorry in the spring to go to do this 691 00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:13,640 Speaker 9: early just in case. Now Ohio the state legislature fixed 692 00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:17,480 Speaker 9: the problem. But you know, I'm a Democrat. I don't 693 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 9: want to rely on Republican state legislatures who might go 694 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,920 Speaker 9: back on their word. And go ahead and get this 695 00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,480 Speaker 9: done and then we can have the celebration in the 696 00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 9: introduction and education to the American people of who she 697 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 9: is in Chicago. 698 00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 3: So if we consider that the vice president of the 699 00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,520 Speaker 3: United States still needs to be introduced to the American 700 00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:38,239 Speaker 3: people to a large extent after being a breath away 701 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,920 Speaker 3: from the presidency for three and a half years, how 702 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:42,759 Speaker 3: hard is it going to be to introduce any of 703 00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:46,439 Speaker 3: these vice presidential candidates to the American people in such 704 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,640 Speaker 3: a short span of time for them to actually make 705 00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,360 Speaker 3: a difference, to contribute to the ticket as you describe. 706 00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:54,239 Speaker 9: I think it makes a difference in the states where 707 00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 9: it will matter. So this is not that part isn't abnormal. 708 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:02,400 Speaker 9: I mean picking your mate and who that is. Clearly 709 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,600 Speaker 9: you're voting for the presidential candidate. But if you're looking 710 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 9: at states like Pennsylvania or Arizona, they're going to know 711 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,439 Speaker 9: who these people are. So yes, it's an uphill climb 712 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:15,080 Speaker 9: to educate the American public on who the vice presidential 713 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,399 Speaker 9: canadate is. But I think that you know that's that's 714 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,479 Speaker 9: the campaign's job over the next couple of weeks. 715 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,560 Speaker 4: So we've heard a lot about a sugar high and 716 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 4: a honeymoon and all of that, And I suppose you 717 00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,799 Speaker 4: could qualify this entire period of time. We're in straight 718 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:30,279 Speaker 4: through the convention, straight through Chicago. Then we get out 719 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,279 Speaker 4: on the road the real sprint begins. Give us a 720 00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 4: sense of what kind of planning this campaign is going 721 00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:40,080 Speaker 4: to be focused on. Coming out of August into September. 722 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,759 Speaker 4: Kids go back to school, people back from vacation. They're 723 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:44,440 Speaker 4: paying attention. 724 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,520 Speaker 9: Now. I think you'll see a lot of focus like 725 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,280 Speaker 9: you will just starting next week on the Blue Wall States, 726 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,320 Speaker 9: quote unquote blue Wall States. That's the easiest path to 727 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,560 Speaker 9: victory for the Democrats if you're looking at Pennsylvania and Michigan, Wisconsin, 728 00:37:57,719 --> 00:37:59,520 Speaker 9: those type states. But I think you're also going to 729 00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:05,879 Speaker 9: see a folkocus on North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, those type 730 00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:09,239 Speaker 9: of states where you've got strong down ballot candidates as well, 731 00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:11,880 Speaker 9: strong governors who are going to be I mean, you 732 00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,160 Speaker 9: see the surrogates and how strong these surrogates are, so 733 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,680 Speaker 9: anybody who's in the race and the running to be 734 00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:20,719 Speaker 9: the VP pick and is not is going to be 735 00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:22,800 Speaker 9: a strong surrogate for her in those states. So I 736 00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:24,360 Speaker 9: think you'll see a lot of focus on where the 737 00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:26,719 Speaker 9: campaign needs to be focused in order to get to 738 00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:30,040 Speaker 9: that number in order to win the when the president 739 00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:31,799 Speaker 9: win the presidency well, and of. 740 00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:33,839 Speaker 3: Course that could be physical visits like what we're going 741 00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:36,080 Speaker 3: to see next week. It also could be just buying 742 00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:37,840 Speaker 3: up time on the airwaves. She's got to have a 743 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:39,960 Speaker 3: lot of resources to do that. The campaign says it 744 00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,840 Speaker 3: raised three hundred and ten million dollars in July. What 745 00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,040 Speaker 3: is the responsible way to spend that money? Knowing that 746 00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:50,760 Speaker 3: kind of fundraising burst isn't necessarily sustainable. 747 00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,719 Speaker 9: Right, So I think a number of things you have 748 00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:54,200 Speaker 9: to be up on air, You have to be up 749 00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:57,279 Speaker 9: on television, so that's a given. And then you've seen 750 00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,239 Speaker 9: the incredible success of the on line forums. You know 751 00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,480 Speaker 9: that she's had with surrogates. You know, you've had like 752 00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,160 Speaker 9: zoom calls, Yes, the white Men for Homla, you know, 753 00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:07,759 Speaker 9: the women bro zoom. 754 00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:08,239 Speaker 6: Right. 755 00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,239 Speaker 9: But I think equally, if not more important, is the 756 00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,400 Speaker 9: infrastructure that's already on the ground, the unprecedented infrastructure on 757 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,759 Speaker 9: the ground. I mean the number of the you know, 758 00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,200 Speaker 9: folks that are walking around, the volunteers, the campaign staff 759 00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:24,279 Speaker 9: in these battleground states. That's a responsible way to spend money. 760 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:26,560 Speaker 4: Is it right to stash Joe Biden on a Monday night? 761 00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:30,359 Speaker 4: He couldn't introduce Kamala Harris on Thursday? I mean, am 762 00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:32,279 Speaker 4: I looking at it the wrong way? You're gonna say, hey, 763 00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,319 Speaker 4: he's in prime time. That's a great slot, Right. 764 00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,440 Speaker 9: That's exactly what I'm gonna say, primetime, great slot. 765 00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:40,800 Speaker 4: Kristin Han, It's always great to have a Kristin with 766 00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,520 Speaker 4: his partner at Rock Solutions that are frequent panelists here 767 00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:46,319 Speaker 4: on balance of power, of course, we like to tap 768 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,120 Speaker 4: her expertise whenever we have the opportunity. With so many questions, 769 00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,919 Speaker 4: Kayley and this democratic ticket. The next couple of days 770 00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:56,640 Speaker 4: are going to be off the important Thanks for listening 771 00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,920 Speaker 4: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe 772 00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,680 Speaker 4: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you 773 00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:05,520 Speaker 4: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 774 00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:09,600 Speaker 4: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.