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Speaker 1: So one of the topics I've certainly brought up quite

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Speaker 1: a few times has to do with just simply Democratic

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Speaker 1: voter registration. And it has been in a consistent downward trend,

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Speaker 1: arguably now for five years. And what's been a head

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Speaker 1: scratcher has been the sort of at times what has

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Speaker 1: appeared as a lack of urgency among some party leaders

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Speaker 1: about this trend line registration. And it turned out that

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Speaker 1: what the Republicans did starting in arguably before the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty election. But certainly, and maybe this is about COVID,

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Speaker 1: and with my guest here we're going to talk about

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Speaker 1: that a little bit, is how much how much this

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Speaker 1: initial setback was during COVID, when the Republicans were more

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Speaker 1: comfortable doing in person than the Democrats were. But the

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Speaker 1: fact is we're here. There was one I believe the

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Speaker 1: folks of our decision desk put out a stat that

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Speaker 1: should I think that the last year Democrats have lost

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Speaker 1: a million voters among the states that keep track of that,

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Speaker 1: Republicans have lost about one hundred thousand. And of course,

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Speaker 1: no party or independent, whatever the delineation is by state,

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Speaker 1: is where all these extra voters have come. Tom Bonyer

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Speaker 1: is a longtime Democratic strategist, former CEO of Target Smart,

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Speaker 1: the sort of the chief voter file company for Team

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Speaker 1: Blue these days. When I was at NBC, we actually

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Speaker 1: worked with Target Smart as well, and in fact RNBC

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Speaker 1: poll combines Target Smart work with one of the key

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Speaker 1: voter file companies on the on Team Red, and Tom Bonier,

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Speaker 1: in a New York Times interview, goes, hey, I was

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Speaker 1: dismissive of these voter registration numbers, and I was wrong.

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Speaker 1: He's here today to talk more about that. Tom. Good

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Speaker 1: to see you.

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Speaker 2: Good to be here.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with this. Where did this begin? Because

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Speaker 1: you know, for essentially the first fifteen years of this century,

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Speaker 1: Democrats were making the registration progress right Barack Obama's campaign

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Speaker 1: and sort of the success of its administration, and that's

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Speaker 1: sort of a if you look at an overall fifty

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Speaker 1: year trend, if you have a two term president, it

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Speaker 1: does usually help your party in the voter registration column.

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Speaker 1: But they hit a wall somewhere, and the question was

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Speaker 1: why did it happen? It started with COVID, But where

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Speaker 1: has it gone? And how have you come to the

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Speaker 1: conclusion that this turned out to be something we should

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Speaker 1: have focused more on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you could actually even put the start

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Speaker 2: of it even further back, potentially to seventeen when you

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Speaker 2: saw now it had a different impact at that point

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Speaker 2: in terms of Trump's first term, but the Democratic Party

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Speaker 2: brand after the Bernie Clinton primary wasn't great, and so

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Speaker 2: what you saw at that point, starting in twenty seventeen

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Speaker 2: and going forward was fewer people registering or identifying as Democrats,

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Speaker 2: but it wasn't really impacting the vote at that point

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Speaker 2: because of the negative reaction to Trump's first term. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot of enthusiasm, especially among younger voters going into

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Speaker 2: the twenty eighteen midterms, So these voters were registering as

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Speaker 2: unaffiliated voters but were still voting for Democrats. And so

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Speaker 2: you're right, it was more around the pandemic in twenty twenty,

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Speaker 2: where initially you saw a bigger drop in terms of

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Speaker 2: the percent of registered voters and states of partisan registration,

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Speaker 2: which is more than half the states, and it's a

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Speaker 2: very diverse sample of states in terms of red states,

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Speaker 2: blue states, purple states. You saw that number dropping even more,

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Speaker 2: but it was spikey then because you remember the Black

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Speaker 2: Lives Matter movement and after George Floyd's murder, you saw

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Speaker 2: where there was more organizing happen generally driven by that movement.

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Speaker 2: You did see some more spikes and Democratic registration leading

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Speaker 2: into that election. So if you want to see where

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Speaker 2: it really went south for Democrats, who was generally just

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Speaker 2: during that four year period of President Biden's presidency, where

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Speaker 2: it followed the polling numbers, again, the Democratic Party brand

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Speaker 2: was heading south. And what we saw, and you mentioned

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Speaker 2: that that quote I had in the New York Times

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Speaker 2: about being wrong, what I was very specifically wrong about

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Speaker 2: was this calculation that well, maybe it's okay, maybe that

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Speaker 2: you know, what we saw during Trump's first term is

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Speaker 2: something we would see repeated that while fewer people were

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Speaker 2: identifying with the party or registering more importantly with the party,

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Speaker 2: that you looked at these unaffiliated voters and they looked

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Speaker 2: more like Democratic voters, meaning they were young, they were

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Speaker 2: more women than men, they were color and in the

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Speaker 2: end that didn't bear out. These are exactly the voters

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Speaker 2: that President Trump overperformed with serious election.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with the just the mechanics of voter registration.

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Speaker 1: You know, you could argue that a political party has

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Speaker 1: one job get members right, like that. Ultimately, you have

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Speaker 1: one job in a particularly if you run a county

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Speaker 1: party or a state party. You know, a national party

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Speaker 1: you could argue is sort of in some ways making

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Speaker 1: sure you have healthy chapters right all over the country,

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Speaker 1: but certainly on a state and local level, you have

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Speaker 1: one job. I'm a Floridian, a former Floridian, and I

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Speaker 1: you know, I always I have marveled at the incompetency

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Speaker 1: of the state Democratic Party because it's the voters have

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Speaker 1: performed better. Right for the longest time, Democrats used to

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Speaker 1: overperform their organization. And it would be one of those things. Boy,

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Speaker 1: if you ever actually spent some money in an organization,

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Speaker 1: this could happen and then everything went in the reverse.

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Speaker 1: And the Republicans have simply made a concerted effort to

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Speaker 1: register voters and the Democratic Party didn't. And I've never

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Speaker 1: what is in the you know, why isn't this first

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Speaker 1: and foremost? Why do Democrats outsource this more it appears

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Speaker 1: than the Republicans do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, this is a complicated one, and you hit

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Speaker 2: on some of the key elements of this. Democrats have

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Speaker 2: invested in voter registration, to your point, generally not through

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Speaker 2: the party. There are some reasons just in terms of

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Speaker 2: the type of money you can spend. For the longest time,

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Speaker 2: Democrats had organizations like Acorn no longer that were very

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Speaker 2: successful in registering voters. It's all they did, right, They

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Speaker 2: had one job. Right, it's non partisan work. So what

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Speaker 2: that generally means or overwhelmingly non partisan work, meaning the.

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Speaker 1: Least partisan work is in legal terms, it's non partisan, right, So.

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Speaker 2: Five on one C three. Generally a lot of these

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Speaker 2: organizations are registered as five to one C threes or

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Speaker 2: five one C fours, meaning that they can't go out

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Speaker 2: and say, you know, are you a Democrat or a

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Speaker 2: Republican and then only register the Democrats. It's not partisan registration.

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Speaker 2: So they would register people based on demographics, so they

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Speaker 2: would go to college campuses, they would go to neighborhoods.

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Speaker 1: Where you know, you would get a larger share of

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Speaker 1: who you're registering. But it's not like they wouldn't register

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Speaker 1: somebody that wanted to be a Republican, a libertarian or

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Speaker 1: Green part whatever.

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Speaker 2: It a simple math, but if you were getting more

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Speaker 2: people on one side than another, it generally worked out fine.

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Speaker 2: And again that was something that worked well for Democrats,

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Speaker 2: and again it was this calculus that well, in the end,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't matter if they self identify or identifying that

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Speaker 2: voter registration card as a Democrat, as long as they're

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Speaker 2: voting for and with the party. And for the longest time,

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Speaker 2: that was a calculus that was okay. And you know,

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Speaker 2: I should point out even when you look at the

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Speaker 2: last four years or even last year, there were democratic

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Speaker 2: or progressive entities that they'd overwhelmingly non partisan voter registration

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Speaker 2: that were still getting results. But the problem was with

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Speaker 2: the lack of the partisan element, with a lack of

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Speaker 2: investment in partisan voter registration, the margins weren't nearly where

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Speaker 2: they were in the past. And what's striking to me

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Speaker 2: if you want to look at the impact of this,

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Speaker 2: I looked at turnout just in terms of partisan registration

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Speaker 2: across the battleground state. Now four of the seven battleground

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Speaker 2: states offer partisan registry, so it's not all of them,

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Speaker 2: but again a pretty good sample. The differential on turnout.

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Speaker 2: If you compare twenty twenty where Joe Biden won in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four where Donald Trump won, the differential on

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Speaker 2: turnout between Democrats and Republicans twenty twenty four to twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty was less than a point. I mean, the swing

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Speaker 2: was minimal, But the deciding factor and why the result

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Speaker 2: ended up being this landslide from an electoral college perspective

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Speaker 2: for Donald Trump was because there were just so many

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Speaker 2: more registered Republicans in twenty twenty four and fewer To

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Speaker 2: the point you made earlier, it wasn't just that the

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Speaker 2: Democratic numbers were stagnant. There were actually fewer registered Democrats.

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Speaker 2: So Democrats going into this election in order to win

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Speaker 2: would have had to have gotten higher turnout among partisan

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Speaker 2: Democrats than they got in twenty twenty, which was almost impossible.

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Speaker 2: And we think that twenty twenty had records setting turnout

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Speaker 2: and Democrats did quite well in turnout. For Vice President

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Speaker 2: Harris to accomplish that would have been incredibly difficult.

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Speaker 1: Have you examined the Republican tactics and because they do

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Speaker 1: it more in a more partisan basis than the Democratic side,

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Speaker 1: is there something to be learned?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean to the extent that I'm you know,

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Speaker 2: can dig into it and that it's out there and

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Speaker 2: a lot of it is out there in the public.

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Speaker 1: I think they've been.

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Speaker 2: Very proud of what they especially in states like Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 1: They work. Look, arguably, it is all they thought about

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Speaker 1: starting in twenty seventeen was we can't you know. It

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Speaker 1: was like it reminded me of Carl Rove after two thousand. Hey,

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Speaker 1: I don't want to have a margin like that again,

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Speaker 1: Let's try to improve in all of these key battleground states.

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Speaker 1: And back then it was Florida and Ohio. This time

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Speaker 1: it was the Big three, but particularly with Pennsylvania. Well

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Speaker 1: that's right.

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Speaker 2: I mean when you look at their post mortem mafter

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Speaker 2: the twenty twelve election, where they said, look, we're not

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Speaker 2: going to win another national election if we continue to

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Speaker 2: do as poorly as we do with these emerging demographics,

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Speaker 2: especially younger voters and voters, and then they didn't really

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Speaker 2: do anything about it.

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Speaker 1: Ironically, the autopsy was right. They just didn't know Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump was the answer that was going to win him

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Speaker 1: over at more diverse I mean, it is a strange thing. Now,

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Speaker 1: I did mean to sort of interrupt your trade of thought,

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Speaker 1: but I've thought about that autopsy. So were they right?

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Speaker 1: It just they were wrong about who the right person was.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, anyway, but I did I digress.

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Speaker 2: Just at the time, I don't think, nor would they.

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Speaker 1: Don't think that's what right three percent in mind?

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Speaker 2: No, oh no, no, certainly not. And so when you

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Speaker 2: look at their actual tactics now, a lot of it

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Speaker 2: looks a lot like what Democrats were doing again a

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Speaker 2: decade ago, two decades ago, especially, you know the successful

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Speaker 2: efforts of the Obama campaign. We have to remember that

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Speaker 2: the Obama campaign in two thousand and eight, they're organizing

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Speaker 2: with younger voters with something A lot of people looked

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Speaker 2: at it and said, well, look, these younger voters don't vote,

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Speaker 2: even especially not in presidential primary elections, and that campaign

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Speaker 2: saw an opportunity there and they put not only their

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Speaker 2: candidate there, but their resources organizing on college campuses. It's

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Speaker 2: arguably what won them the primary and then carried through

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Speaker 2: to the general election. And Republicans in a lot of

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Speaker 2: ways follow that model where they just had a presence

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Speaker 2: on college campuses that generally would be thought of as

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Speaker 2: quite hostile but for Republican or Republican electives, for Republican candidates.

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Speaker 2: But what they recognized, I think accurately, was that it

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Speaker 2: wasn't a matter if they didn't need to win these areas.

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Speaker 2: They just needed to turn around the numbers enough they

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Speaker 2: needed to not get out among younger voters, and you

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Speaker 2: look at what they created there. It's incredible, especially among

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Speaker 2: younger men. And these are numbers that are holding still.

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Speaker 2: They're resilient, especially among young men. When we look at

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Speaker 2: President Trump's overall numbers, you know, frankly in the toilet

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Speaker 2: at the moment, they're still out registering Democrats among younger men.

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Speaker 1: You know, I have a thesis on that that it's COVID.

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Speaker 1: I always I have a gen Z focus group in

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Speaker 1: my household to college students and my younger My younger

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Speaker 1: one was sort of you know, let me put it

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Speaker 1: this way, he and his friends. I would say, you know,

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Speaker 1: think about this. Your first interaction with government is COVID.

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Speaker 1: And for some of these guys, right the first time

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Speaker 1: they've dealt with government, it took them away from their friends.

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Speaker 1: And I think that is a I think this is

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Speaker 1: going to be a generational thing with these guys. But

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Speaker 1: we'll see, right, it's only one cycle. But that's just

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Speaker 1: the thesis I have that this is more COVID related

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Speaker 1: than we fully appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: I think that's absolutely right, and in fact, you know,

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Speaker 2: I shared you know, in generally, a lot of the

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Speaker 2: things that I will share, I would say most of

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Speaker 2: the things I share as a partisan Democrat that I

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Speaker 2: share in public are going to appear to be more

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Speaker 2: favorable for Democrats. But in November of twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 2: I shared some analysis I put together. It was looking

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Speaker 2: at the voter registration gender gap among voters under the

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Speaker 2: age of twenty five, and it was really for me,

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Speaker 2: sounding the alarm where among all of the party registration states,

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Speaker 2: the gender gap among these younger voters was twenty six points.

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Speaker 2: In Pennsylvania, it's almost thirty seven points. And to me

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Speaker 2: that was a flashing red alarm that that's something that

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Speaker 2: if that's something that holds, and that we don't do

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Speaker 2: something about it, we're not going to win. And I

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Speaker 2: think your point, yeah, it certainly came out of COVID.

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Speaker 2: These were you know, it's complex, but when you put

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Speaker 2: these younger men, especially in a situation where suddenly their

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Speaker 2: lives are being lived almost entirely online, and the sort

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Speaker 2: of interactions they were having and the connections they were making,

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Speaker 2: and then sort of the lack of real world connections

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Speaker 2: they had, I think it had a massive impact. You know,

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Speaker 2: when you look at the Navigator surveys from after the election,

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Speaker 2: which is a great data set of large sample sized

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Speaker 2: post election surveys. They asked the question about how much

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Speaker 2: political news do you consume? And there's a straight line

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Speaker 2: correlation between the answer to that question and for whom

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Speaker 2: you voted, Meaning the people say I consume a lot

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Speaker 2: of political news present Hairs won by six points, but

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Speaker 2: those who say that I consume no or almost none

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump one by almost fifteen points. And again we

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Speaker 2: talked about these voters as low information voters. They're overwhelmingly younger,

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Speaker 2: and they were more men than women. We talked about

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Speaker 2: them as low information voters. They're not exactly low information voters.

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Speaker 2: They're consuming so much information, but they aren't consuming over

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Speaker 2: political information in the spaces that Democrats generally were contesting

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Speaker 2: or communicating it.

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Speaker 1: Have you studied this? You know, it does feel as

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Speaker 1: if you know sort of how often the first is

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Speaker 1: it like when you register somebody for the first time

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Speaker 1: for your party? How you know what kind of stickiness

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Speaker 1: is that? Is that a ten year stick? Is that

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Speaker 1: a generational stick? Is that? Like, you know, have you

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Speaker 1: been able have you looked at this through generational prisms.

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Speaker 1: You know, I always it's fascinating to me that my

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Speaker 1: generations the most pro Trump Generation X, and I attribute

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Speaker 1: it to growing up Reagan, as I call it, right,

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Speaker 1: that that was our formative years were Reagan, right, that

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Speaker 1: was the president during when we were both from you know,

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Speaker 1: Nancy Reagan showing up on different strokes, and then you know,

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Speaker 1: it was just sort of it was there and economy

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Speaker 1: was pretty good, right, you know, it was in the

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Speaker 1: end of the Cold War, right, we won something. So

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Speaker 1: that's my explanation for it. But I have no idea

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Speaker 1: whether I'm just sort of going through my head and

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Speaker 1: sort of saying, well, you know, how much is that

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Speaker 1: early commitment to a party matter long term?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's incredibly important. And the phenomena that you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: or the theory that you that you just posited, is

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Speaker 2: actually something the political scientists have studied and shown that

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Speaker 2: who at present when you're in those formative years and

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Speaker 2: again will depend for the individual in terms of when

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Speaker 2: tuning into these things. But people talking about broadly the

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Speaker 2: culture with the somewhatous but certainly Ronald Reagan in the eighties,

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Speaker 2: as a member of Gen X, myself, it was ubiquitous

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Speaker 2: from a cultural perspective, And yeah, so the biggest impact

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Speaker 2: is your household composition in a lot of ways as well,

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Speaker 2: or at least maybe next in line.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

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Speaker 1: there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

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Speaker 1: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered

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Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

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Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing,

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Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: So with more than a thousand lawyers across the country,

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Speaker 1: they know how to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured,

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Speaker 1: you need a lawyer, You need somebody to get your back.

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Speaker 1: Check out for the People dot Com, Slash podcast or

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Speaker 1: now Pound Law, Pound five two nine Law on your

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Speaker 1: So check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free

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Speaker 1: unless they win. So what your.

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Speaker 2: Parents are, what your parents are has a huge impact.

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Speaker 2: Now I'll be curious to see if that holds. It

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Speaker 2: would suggest that maybe now that's less sticky. But wherever

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Speaker 2: to your original question. When someone registers with a party,

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Speaker 2: they tend to stay there and it takes time. Generally

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Speaker 2: they'll start voting the other way before they switch. And

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Speaker 2: so we talk about these ancestral Democrats in places like

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Speaker 2: West Virginia throughout the show.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say it, that's the last spot of the

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Speaker 1: generational Democrats as Appalachia. Right, It's like in tucky West Virginia.

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Speaker 1: It's like the last Southern Ohio. I don't feel like

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Speaker 1: you have it in the Deep South anymore.

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Speaker 2: You don't know they're gone. They're gone at this point,

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Speaker 2: and they are going. You know, Pennsylvania actually produces data

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Speaker 2: on party switchers on a very regular basis, and you

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Speaker 2: see it's still happening too, and it's.

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Speaker 1: All Appalachia like areas like Western Pa.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, you know, in Pennsylvania's fascinating to me

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Speaker 2: because again you mentioned the success the Republicans had. They

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Speaker 2: had massive investment in part of the registration there, not

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Speaker 2: just in twenty twenty four, but going back four or

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Speaker 2: five years before that with great success. What's interesting to

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Speaker 2: me is if you look at this moment now, they

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Speaker 2: have some court races there that maybe aren't getting in

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Speaker 2: a lot of attention nationally, but are in Pennsylvania and

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Speaker 2: are incredibly important in a lot of ways. And Democrats

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Speaker 2: are actually doing among new registrants, are actually doing better

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Speaker 2: than they did four and even eight years ago. So

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Speaker 2: it's something that I'm looking at. They're not doing much better,

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Speaker 2: but they're doing a point or two better. Which is

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Speaker 2: this a bit of a turnaround. I don't know, but it's.

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Speaker 1: It's Shapiro related. I mean, he's a popular governor.

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Speaker 2: Right, That's a big part of it. But an important

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Speaker 2: point here is even with that happening, the net numbers

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Speaker 2: are still getting worse for Democrats. Part of it is

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Speaker 2: because of who is being removed from the file to

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Speaker 2: put it in a passway, which part of that is death.

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Speaker 2: Part of that is people moving out of the states.

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Speaker 2: Part of that is purging, but that's generally negative. The

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Speaker 2: people who are in their eighties are actually more democratic

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Speaker 2: than not. People who get purged off the file tend

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Speaker 2: to be more Democrats. So Republicans are still actually gaining

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Speaker 2: in the net there, even while Democrats are doing better

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Speaker 2: among new registrants. So another thing to keep an eye on.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twelve after that election, and I feel like

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Speaker 1: the most prominent person making this argument was Tom I

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Speaker 1: think that Tom Bevan over real clear that there was

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Speaker 1: a missing white vote, that there was this chunk of

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Speaker 1: people not voting, and that was the explanation for why

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Speaker 1: Romney so underperformed, particularly in certain place. I was a

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Speaker 1: bit skeptical, and I think some people were, And then

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen happened, and then twenty happened, at twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: four happened, and you can't help but wonder how much

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Speaker 1: of the Trump gain is missing. Is voters that weren't participating,

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Speaker 1: say in the first twelve years of this century, versus

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Speaker 1: those that switched.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's a big part of it. I mean, obviously,

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Speaker 2: the entire equation has changed so radically from twenty twelve

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Speaker 2: that it's hard to point the one thing right because

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Speaker 2: we've seen that these voters who were more consistent, voting,

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Speaker 2: better educated. Again, traditionally Republican voters voted for Romney in

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Speaker 2: twenty twelve, voted for mckimal tom.

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Speaker 1: I live in the last Romney precinct of Arlington, as

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Speaker 1: I call it there you go right, you know, And

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Speaker 1: they haven't voted Republicans since in this area, you know.

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Speaker 1: And so then I wouldn't call them liberal democrats.

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Speaker 2: No, by noting, but those voters have voted, They likely

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Speaker 2: voted for Clinton, They almost certainly voted for Biden and

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Speaker 2: Fort Harris. These are the voters who are voting in

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Speaker 2: these lower turnout elections. That's the reason why, fairly well documented,

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Speaker 2: the Democrats are doing better in these lower turnout especially

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Speaker 2: these special elections that used to be the great advantage

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Speaker 2: for Republicans and that has turned on its head. And

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Speaker 2: so yeah, there are more of these lower turnout white

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Speaker 2: voters who are coming out when Trump is on the ballot.

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Speaker 2: They didn't come out in twenty eighteen. Not enough of

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Speaker 2: them came out twenty twenty two to have a red

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Speaker 2: wave election. We'll see what happens this year in New Jersey,

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Speaker 2: in Virginia and Pennsylvania and other places. See what happens

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Speaker 2: next year. But the other element of this that we've

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Speaker 2: been talking about is Republican improvements among younger voters, especially

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Speaker 2: younger voters of coloring, younger white men, and so I

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Speaker 2: don't know that you can count those in terms of

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Speaker 2: the missing white vote. Sure, these voters who demographically generally

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Speaker 2: would be a smaller share of the electorate and now

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Speaker 2: have been ascendant under Trump. I will say, when you

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Speaker 2: look at the polling numbers now and you look at

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Speaker 2: what drives Trump's, you know, reasonably good numbers when he

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Speaker 2: was elected and when he was inaugurated to where they

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Speaker 2: quickly went. The voters who dropped the most were these

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Speaker 2: same voters who swung the most towards him. So these

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Speaker 2: younger now have overwhelmingly negative numbers. But like I said

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Speaker 2: a few minutes ago, when you look at the partisan registration,

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Speaker 2: younger white men are still registering overwhelmingly Republican, which tells

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Speaker 2: me Republicans are doing the nuts and bolts, blocking and tackling,

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Speaker 2: doing the registration at the local level and holding on

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Speaker 2: to some of those margins.

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Speaker 1: If the Democratic Party pointed to one thing, do they

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Speaker 1: have a do they have a base problem or a

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Speaker 1: persuasion problem.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, time will tell. I mean, from from both perspectives,

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Speaker 2: I think Democrats feel better about where they are now

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Speaker 2: in terms of of Trump's popularity. But I think there's

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Speaker 2: two parts to this equation, right, there's how well will

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Speaker 2: Democrats do in the elections happening next month and then

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Speaker 2: the elections next year just based on an anti Trump,

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Speaker 2: anti Republican sentiment which history would tell us, and we

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Speaker 2: don't have to go back any further team bit Historically,

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Speaker 2: we could go back as far as we want and

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Speaker 2: find Democrats should do quite well in these elections just

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Speaker 2: because of anti incumbency and especially because of Trump and

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Speaker 2: his little popularity numbers. To me, the big question is

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Speaker 2: are Democrats able to connect the dots and give voters

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Speaker 2: a reason to vote for them? From the positive case,

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Speaker 2: can we get to the point where people feel better

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Speaker 2: about the Democrat Party, where more people are associating and

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Speaker 2: affiliating with the Democratic Party. Why I'm watching these voter

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Speaker 2: registration numbers so closely now, because that's where you would

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Speaker 2: expect to see it first before the election, is more

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Speaker 2: people when they goybe it's just they're getting their driver's license.

435
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 2: Maybe it's not even effort to voter registration, but they

436
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 2: have a few boxes they could check. And right now,

437
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 2: those younger voters are overwhelmingly just say unaffiliated, just as

438
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 2: they did a year ago, three years ago, years ago.

439
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 2: And so for Democrats to really be able to maximize

440
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 2: their potential and these upcoming elections, I think that's where

441
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 2: you're going to see it. It's them being able to

442
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 2: build that positive and so to me, it's both. It's

443
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 2: it's persuasion and it's persuading the people to get to

444
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:39,400
Speaker 2: the point where they enter that mobilization category where they're

445
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 2: going to be turnout targets for Democratic compaints.

446
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 1: Do you think the Democrats are resting almost counting too

447
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 1: much on Trump voters not showing up when Trump's not

448
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 1: on the ballot, Like it, It's sort of like I

449
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: hear this talk all the time, Well, Democrats will be fine,

450
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: and it may actually be a way of reason to

451
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 1: sort of no matter, you know, be careful thinking twenty

452
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 1: twenty six if it goes well for Democrats is somehow

453
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: a harbinger for twenty eight considering if quote unquote the

454
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: Trump voter just simply doesn't show up again for midterms,

455
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 1: they know this too, right, They know they have this problem,

456
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: and it does sound as if they're going to make

457
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: more of an effort to see if they can they

458
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 1: can get these voters more engaged in elections that don't

459
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: involve Trump. Do you let me tell you what. I

460
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: sense that Democrats are almost counting on this phenomenon, and

461
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 1: I would be weary of counting on the phenomenon given

462
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:42,679
Speaker 1: how much money they're throwing at this.

463
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, that's a hard one to read in terms

464
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 2: of what's happening tactically on the ground. I do think that,

465
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 2: you know, again, based on the history, You're right, the

466
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 2: Democrats are looking at this and making a calculus that

467
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 2: in the end, historically these voters haven't come out with

468
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is not on the ballot, so therefore we

469
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,239
Speaker 2: should do better. And you know, the special elections so

470
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 2: far have proven that true.

471
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 1: Look very so, everything looks similar to twenty seventeen except

472
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,920
Speaker 1: the Democratic parties unfavorable ready. Yeah, but like if that's

473
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 1: the one thing that's different, it's much higher, that's.

474
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 2: Right, And that's why I think. You know, obviously, Democrats

475
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 2: has been going very hard on healthcare during this shutdown,

476
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,479
Speaker 2: and that to me tells me that they are making

477
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 2: an effort to appeal not just to the mobilization universe,

478
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 2: not that the audience doesn't want to hear that message,

479
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 2: but to those swing voters. I mean, when they have

480
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 2: a message that Marjorie Taylor Green is agreeing with, suggest

481
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 2: there's something there and there's an opportunity and an effort

482
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 2: to appeal to these swing voters who likely voted for

483
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 2: Trump last year but are potentially part of that. You know,

484
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: maybe fifteen well, let's say fifteen percent of the country

485
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 2: who voted for him felt favorably about when he took

486
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,360
Speaker 2: off and don't feel that way now.

487
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 1: When you hear Democrats have a brand problem, what is

488
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 1: it that the problem is that people don't know what

489
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 1: the party does stand for, or that people do know

490
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 1: what the party stands for and they don't like it.

491
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: How do you view the quote brand problem? Is it

492
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 1: just not not very well defined or frankly defined in

493
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 1: an unpopular way.

494
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 2: You know, look, I'm a numbers guy, not a policy

495
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 2: or a messaging guy. But when you look at the

496
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 2: numbers from the twenty four election again, you look at

497
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 2: the exit polls, you look at the Navigator survey, there

498
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 2: was a big problem in terms of awareness of issues.

499
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 2: You looked at sort of the four signature legislative accomplishments

500
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 2: of President Biden in Democrats while he was in and

501
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 2: in each of those a navigator tested this a majority.

502
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 2: In some cases over sixty percent of Americans said they

503
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 2: didn't know anything about them. And then a real kick

504
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 2: in the pants for Democrats. More independent voters said that

505
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 2: Donald Trump did more on infrastructure when in office than

506
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: Joe Biden did.

507
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 1: So just by saying Infrastructure week. Even though it failed,

508
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: it stuck.

509
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 2: So in our very online circle, that was the meme, right,

510
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 2: that was a running joke, Oh it's infrastructure.

511
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 1: Right, And yet it turned out people have thought, oh

512
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump cares about infrastructure.

513
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 2: That's exactly right. I mean, that's what bubble making up

514
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 2: the others.

515
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 1: So you believe it is a it's an awareness, So

516
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: it's sort of it's more message penetration. The message itself

517
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 1: might be working if it if they knew how to.

518
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 1: So this would be a marketing problem. Is as much

519
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: as you may have a good brand, but if you

520
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: don't market it correctly, nobody knows your brand. Well.

521
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I think there's two ways to look

522
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 2: at this question. One is the previous four years when

523
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 2: when when Democrats were in power, at least in the

524
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 2: White House. And then there's the question of now where

525
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 2: Democrats don't control anything, and I think there's you know

526
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 2: that has always been a challenge for the party that

527
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 2: is out of power, and how do you find your

528
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 2: own proactive agenda. I mean, we can go back to

529
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 2: nineteen four in the Contract with America and New Gingrich

530
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 2: and now Republicans successfully we're able to brand some type

531
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: of actual agenda. I think that's a lot more challenging

532
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: in the issue environment and just the media consumption environment

533
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,160
Speaker 2: where in now to get voters to pay attention to

534
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 2: these things. I think the shutdown again we see Democrats

535
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: talking more specifically about healthcare is a good step in

536
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 2: that direction. I just think it's much more challenging these

537
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 2: days to get that proactive positive environment message out there,

538
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 2: an agenda out there, when in the end Democrats don't

539
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 2: have the ability to really move any of this forward.

540
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: All right, I want to geek out, do geek out

541
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 1: on some states, and so you know, there's you look

542
00:29:54,520 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 1: at the you look at the seven swing states and

543
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: is it in your head a hard seven, meaning you

544
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 1: got the three Midwestern states right, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Then

545
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: you got the sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia,

546
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 1: North Carolina. Is there is is eight closer to seven?

547
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 1: I you New Hampshire, or is eight closer than to nine?

548
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 1: You see what I mean? Is it those seven and

549
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 1: everybody else? Or do you think there's a couple other

550
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: states still sort of you know, on the outside looking

551
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 1: in they could jump into the to the battleground map.

552
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 2: Yeah. You know, if you wanted to look at obviously

553
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: the map and where states were moving in twenty twenty

554
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 2: four relative to twenty twenty, you had a handful of

555
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: states that I think you would have a very strong

556
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: argument for saying, you know, they shouldn't be considered swing

557
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 2: states in any sense, but they were getting closer. New

558
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 2: Hampshire was one of them. Yet Minnesota.

559
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,959
Speaker 1: Look, even Minnesota has been sitting there on the costpy.

560
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: I have you Minnesota the way I've viewed New Jersey.

561
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: For Republicans, it always it's always close. But Charlie Brown,

562
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 1: you know Lucy Wis both of football.

563
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 2: Well well, and for them it'd be there. You know,

564
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 2: three three hundred and fortieth electoral vote. It's not really

565
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 2: relevant from a strategic perspective, right, And so no, I

566
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 2: you know, I think at this point the seven states

567
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 2: are fairly solidified, at least if we're looking at the

568
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 2: next couple of years here. Obviously it will continue to evolve.

569
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 2: Democrats have have been interested in Texas and Florida for

570
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 2: a long time for obviously, you know, to put those

571
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 2: two in the same category, it's somewhat unfair given that

572
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 2: Democrats have won Florida and not too distant at least

573
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 2: in our lifetime, right, And at this point they're moving

574
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 2: in different directions, so, you know, for various reasons. So

575
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 2: you know, Texas will always be part of the conversation

576
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 2: for Democrats, at least further out from election day.

577
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: But you're you're more pessimistic on Florida solidified? Are you

578
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 1: more pessimistic on Florida versus Texas if you were to pick.

579
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 2: One, Yeah, I am. I mean, look, you had just

580
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: negative trends there. I think Democrats can still win there,

581
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 2: especially in the sort of dynamic we have now without

582
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 2: Trump on the ballot in a midterm election, Democrats would

583
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 2: have a chance there. In the presidential election. I think

584
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 2: it's more challenging. You know, it's not only just been

585
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 2: sort of a persuasion element, and you know, who is

586
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 2: the Democratic standard bear for full Floridians where they look

587
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 2: at identify with that party. I think that's been a challenge.

588
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 2: But just out migration, the migration patterns have just been

589
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 2: very difficult for Democrats. Where you've had Democrats movment, especially

590
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 2: during the pandemic, moving out of the state, and that

591
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 2: seems to continue.

592
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 1: Where really Democrats are moving out and Northeast Republicans are moving.

593
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 2: In basically not just Northeast, but yeah, yeah, Midwest.

594
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: So if you take the seven battleground states and you

595
00:32:55,800 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 1: take Kamala Harris's states and you put them together, the

596
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 1: max number of Senate seats that Democrats could win as

597
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: fifty two. What that tells you is they've got very

598
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 1: little margin for ayer if they want to be competitive

599
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: in the Senate. Now, look, both parties were so polarized,

600
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 1: both parties are sort of it's very difficult to win

601
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 1: a Senate seat these days. In the other side state right,

602
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 1: it's you know, Susan Collins and is probably the last

603
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: Republican that will represent me, But you know, at least

604
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: at least for the foreseeable future. She may represent it

605
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 1: another six years for all we know, but she's probably

606
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 1: the last of her come. So the question that Democrats

607
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 1: have to do, they have to figure out how to

608
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 1: at least have I would argue another four to six

609
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 1: states where they can win Senate seats. Maybe they can't

610
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 1: win it into presidential, but they've got to be able

611
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: to compete in senate races. What are those next four

612
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 1: to six that you think Democrats ought to be pre mean,

613
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 1: if they want to be competitive in the Senate, they

614
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: got to start prioritizing. Now I've got some in my head,

615
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: but I don't want to. I don't want to poison

616
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,280
Speaker 1: poison the conversation. So I'm curious where you go first.

617
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 2: Well, well, it's a question of if you're looking at

618
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 2: this from a demographic and sort of political trend perspective

619
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 2: versus h you know, the actual opportunities in the individual candidate, right,

620
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 2: like we saw what, Yeah, you could make both.

621
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: Because I look at an Ohio and I don't think

622
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: there's much of a chance in Ohio. But Sharon Brown

623
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 1: is an overperformer. So in this specific instance, accept the

624
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: premise that Ohio this year is going to be competitive.

625
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:36,879
Speaker 1: I'm skeptical, but obviously he's been a you know the guy,

626
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 1: the guy won nearly eight years ago. So yeah, no,

627
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 1: that's right.

628
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 2: I mean, look from the actual demographic trends and where

629
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 2: states have gone under Donald Trump. Like bizarrely, Utah is

630
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 2: one of those states that stands out there's actually underperformed

631
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 2: for Republicans, it's underperformed for Trump. It's one that has

632
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 2: trended and actually does have somewhat favorable demographic trends. You

633
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 2: have a big question that you have to ask yourself

634
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 2: if you're trying to answer this is where do you

635
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 2: think Latino voters go? Obviously Donald Trump has driven a

636
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 2: huge over performance with Republicans among Latino voters. Do you

637
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 2: believe that's something that is just related to Trump? How

638
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 2: do you see what's happening with the mass de patients

639
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,879
Speaker 2: and very public authoritarian acts advice out there? How does

640
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 2: that impact that vote? Because in the end, again Utah

641
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 2: has a quick, fast growing Latino population. Texas obviously is

642
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:31,760
Speaker 2: a big part of that conversation and will be tested

643
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 2: and next year in terms of where we are. But again,

644
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:41,919
Speaker 2: if you look at opportunities. I agree Ohio, just from

645
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 2: Shared Brown as someone who is a performer there with

646
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 2: a much more hostile environment for Republicans and Donald Trump

647
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 2: not on the ballot, you have to believe he has

648
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:57,879
Speaker 2: a very good chance to win there. But look, you're right,

649
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 2: I mean the number of opportunity for Democrats above and

650
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,720
Speaker 2: beyond those states the Vice President harrisone or those swing

651
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 2: states you know there are few and far between. Again,

652
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 2: that's where you have to look at things like what

653
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:14,879
Speaker 2: happened and in Nebraska where you had Osborne money as an.

654
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: Independent, is that a better stre I mean you look

655
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 1: at the plain states, right, you look at the northern

656
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 1: tier where it wasn't that long ago where you had

657
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:41,760
Speaker 1: two Democratic senators from North Dakota for a brief period,

658
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 1: for every reasonable period of time, two Democratic senators from

659
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 1: South Dakota, two Democratic senators in Montana. Is that lost

660
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,560
Speaker 1: for a generation or does that? Or is it that?

661
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 1: And is that a Democratic brand issue or is it

662
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 1: an issue? Is it? Is it like a specific issue

663
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: that the problem that Democrats have?

664
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 2: Yes, I don't know. I think we'll get a good

665
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 2: sense of that next year. The question is, you know,

666
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 2: can Democrats recruit and run populist candidates who are not

667
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 2: connected to the negative brand of the party. Obviously, the

668
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 2: brand of the party of the Democrat Party is not

669
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 2: going to turn around anytime soon in those states. But

670
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 2: to your point, Democrats have had great success in the

671
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 2: last two decades in those states running.

672
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: Well, they're populous states, that's right, They're populous before their DNR, right,

673
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: and that's what tells that's why I assume they're still

674
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 1: potentially in play because they're not settled. They're culturally conservative,

675
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 1: but they want an activist government. Those states benefit from

676
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 1: an activist government.

677
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 2: Well, and right now they're not benefiting from the activism

678
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,800
Speaker 2: of the current government. When you look at what is happening,

679
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 2: you know, you can throw Iowa in there too. When

680
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 2: you look at what's being with the tariffs and negatively

681
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 2: impacted uh uh. These populations have been under this presidency,

682
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 2: and then not just the tariffs, obviously, just through federal

683
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 2: grants for farms and that sort of thing. It's had

684
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 2: an overwhelmingly negative impact. And so for Democrats to test this,

685
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 2: they're going to need to run candidates who can run

686
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 2: on that populous message, who have some credibility and perspective

687
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 2: and obviously rely on this still being forefront of their

688
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 2: minds and Trump and not doing a turnaround in the

689
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 2: next couple of years.

690
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 1: Here some of this, you know, sometimes you got to

691
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:41,439
Speaker 1: do triage. What what blue states? You know? The thing

692
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 1: that made the popular vote go Trump's direction was not

693
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 1: the seven battleground states. It was the fact that Illinois,

694
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:53,280
Speaker 1: New Jersey right were four point races five point races.

695
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:59,320
Speaker 1: You're like, whoa right of the blue states? Where should

696
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 1: the party be? Hey, don't drop the ball here. I've

697
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: always said, New Jersey to me is at the top

698
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 1: of the list. But what after New I assume you

699
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: agree that on New Jersey? Where else would you be

700
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: telling the party, Hey, you know, you better keep a

701
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:19,319
Speaker 1: better eye out in here, and you better do a

702
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: little more a little more work.

703
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,760
Speaker 2: Well, you know. To me, this is an interesting dynamic

704
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 2: because it illuminates the problem with you know, I think

705
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:31,359
Speaker 2: where the party brand identity issue that we've been talking

706
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 2: about actually has a bigger impact as in these states.

707
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 2: Because I mentioned how when you look at the turnout

708
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 2: data in twenty twenty four relative twenty twenty in the

709
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 2: battleground states, there was almost no difference between those. It

710
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 2: was just it was minimal.

711
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 1: But no difference in three straight elections, right, that's sixteen,

712
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 1: twenty and twenty four. There were more the same than

713
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: different those those seven states.

714
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 2: But where the turnout truly created for Democrats was in

715
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 2: these blue states and especially these Northeastern and mid Atlantic states,

716
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 2: where Democratic turnout was just abysmal. New Jersey actually had

717
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 2: a little bit of both, where it had a cratering

718
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 2: of Democratic turnout and it also had these unaffiliated voters

719
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 2: who were more fiscally sensitive in New Jersey than probably

720
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 2: any other state. A lot of that just due to

721
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 2: property taxes. But that drove the massive underperformance of Vice

722
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 2: President Harris in those states. And so you know, I

723
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 2: don't look at any of those at this point and

724
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 2: say Republicans are poised to turn this into a longer

725
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 2: term trend. Sure, mobilization worries me less than persuasion, because

726
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 2: mobilization is something that can be fixed with a single

727
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,359
Speaker 2: campaign and a single cycle. Persuasion can as well, but

728
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 2: it's it's tougher. And so again it's not to say

729
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,879
Speaker 2: that Republicans won't have opportunities in these states. But if

730
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 2: we're looking at it now holistically, there's not a state,

731
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: a blue state that I look at and say, well, gosh,

732
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 2: this is one where we're certainly going to be in

733
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 2: trouble in other than sort of generically. Again, if we

734
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 2: want to look at where their potential liability from Democratic

735
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:04,200
Speaker 2: brand identity issues, it's going to be universally across these states.

736
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 1: Two of the battleground states where Democrats have had an

737
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 1: enormous amount of success are Georgia and Arizona. These are

738
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 1: two states that Barack Obama could never carry. He'd come close,

739
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 1: he'd make them more competitive, but there were you know,

740
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: couldn't win any races in those states. Are they just

741
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 1: uniquely allergic to Trump? Is this the suburban switch? And

742
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 1: those two states with just you know, I always said

743
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 1: Phoenix is America's largest suburb, right in Atlanta arguably a

744
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 1: close second. You know, they're just two. Is it due

745
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: to the suburban shift to the Democrats that those two

746
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: states in particular basically went from red to battleground.

747
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 2: There's a few dynamics at play in both of those states.

748
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 2: You know, certainly that suburban shift is a big part

749
00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 2: of it. They just have a barely significant well educated

750
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:06,280
Speaker 2: white voter population, these voters who have swung since Trump

751
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 2: emerged onto the scene towards Democrats, and so that's a

752
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,800
Speaker 2: big part of it. Another thing is Asian American voters

753
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 2: API voters in Georgia, massive, massively fast growing are of

754
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,200
Speaker 2: the electorate there. Just when you look at the difference

755
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 2: between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, where Hillary Clinton lost

756
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 2: the state and Joe Biden won it, that margin swing

757
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 2: was almost entirely defined just by not just population growth

758
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 2: but turnout growth among API voters. Now it's worth noting

759
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,919
Speaker 2: the same AAPI voters swung towards Trump in twenty twenty four,

760
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 2: and then the Poles are now swinging back against so

761
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,920
Speaker 2: perhaps an emerging swing group. There's not as many of

762
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 2: those API voters in Arizona as are in Georgia, but

763
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,839
Speaker 2: still an significant element. And then I think in terms

764
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 2: of Latino voters, Trump didn't get the same sort of

765
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,720
Speaker 2: swing from Latino voters in those states as he got

766
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:02,240
Speaker 2: in some other states. It's like Nevada, lan Texas, Florida.

767
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:04,919
Speaker 2: And so that's part of the recipe as well.

768
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 1: I mean not to oversimplify this, but you know what

769
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 1: you're describing in both and what you see and yeah,

770
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 1: I just feel like that Latino voters that Democrats assumed

771
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: that Obama's percentage was their percentage, when when you look

772
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 1: at these first gen and second gen voters, they're just

773
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 1: more economic sense, They're economically sensitive, and to me, they

774
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 1: behave just like regular old swing voters, because swing voters

775
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 1: are usually economically sensitive. That's right.

776
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 2: And that's where I think that you know, the pandemic

777
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 2: had a huge impact. It's why you saw some of

778
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,760
Speaker 2: these bigger swings in the Rio Grand Valley is because

779
00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 2: the way that especially the hospitality industry was hit by

780
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 2: the pandemic in the closures. Uh, and yeah, I mean

781
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 2: these are Hispanic voters are are They very much meet

782
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:54,760
Speaker 2: the profile of swing voters. I do think you're seeing

783
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 2: that acknowledged by these campaigns now, where you know, I

784
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 2: think for a while Democrats were perhaps making the mistake

785
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 2: of treating Hispanic voters as if they were only mobilization

786
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 2: targets and the price.

787
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: And frankly talking the wrong issue. That's right, Immigration was

788
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:14,839
Speaker 1: not the number one issue among these voters. Four years ago,

789
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 1: I operated on the thesis that Trump was a temporary

790
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:21,720
Speaker 1: brand for the Republicans and that when the quote unquote

791
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: Chamber of Commerce brand came back, you know it would

792
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 1: bring us to I always said Colorado and Virginia. You

793
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 1: look at Glenn Youngkin, You're like, yeah, Glenn Youngkin can

794
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:34,279
Speaker 1: succeed in both the Colorado and Virginia. Right, the sort

795
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:39,279
Speaker 1: of the Chamber of Commerce type pitch. I'm less sure now.

796
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 1: I mean I think the I think once you have

797
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 1: a second term that it probably defines that Trump's now

798
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,839
Speaker 1: it's Trump's party. He's not borrowing the party anymore, right,

799
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: he has molded the party. Is that wing? Is that

800
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:59,680
Speaker 1: wing of the party just dormant, dead, no longer registered Republicans?

801
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:03,280
Speaker 1: I mean the Paul Ryan wing. Are they now registering

802
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 1: as independent?

803
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 2: I think it's a big question of to what extent

804
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 2: Republicans who are not Trump are able to pull it

805
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 2: off a convincing enough impersonation of him to be able

806
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 2: to have electoral success. Because I agree, I don't see

807
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 2: a world where the party goes back to where they

808
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 2: were before now right away.

809
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 1: I mean, you're certainly not. You know, it's going to

810
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 1: take an election cycle or two before they would.

811
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 2: It'll take them losing badly in elections with not convincing

812
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:35,480
Speaker 2: enough Trump like clone. You know, when you look at

813
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, perhaps that is indicative of how the

814
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 2: party could free itself of Trump's shadow, in that you

815
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 2: had a lot of Republican candidates for the Senate who

816
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 2: are running as Trump clones, whether it was you know,

817
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 2: doctor Oz and Pennsylvania. You go across these these races

818
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 2: that they should have won based on the history of

819
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 2: midterm elections credit president who was historically unpopular. They should

820
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 2: have won them, but they didn't win them because of

821
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:11,240
Speaker 2: these candidates Herschelwalker being another one, Zona and all races

822
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 2: that they should have won, uh, and they didn't. So

823
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 2: post Trump, are they able to find candidates who can

824
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 2: pull off more convincing impersonations. Then I think it's it's

825
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 2: stickier because from a primary perspective, it's the way you

826
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 2: win a Republican primary now and I don't expect that.

827
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 1: To change any time.

828
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 2: Can they can they win general elections without someone named

829
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:36,839
Speaker 2: Donald Trump on the ballot with that mega mentality? I'm

830
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 2: just not so sure.

831
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 1: All right with the last minute or two here the

832
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 1: stay polling, I'm a I'm generally bullish unpolling, meaning I

833
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 1: kind of think that people demit. I hate the averaging

834
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 1: of polls because I think it's created the illusion of

835
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:57,520
Speaker 1: accuracy when a poll is there to essentially give you

836
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:01,280
Speaker 1: an estimate and it's you know, if you pay attention

837
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 1: to margins of aeror. Polling has been fine over the

838
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 1: last ten years. The problem is we have this, you know,

839
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 1: real clear politics in five point thirty eight gave us

840
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 1: the the somehow the illusion that there was there was

841
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:17,359
Speaker 1: pure accuracy in what was a freaking survey. Okay, So

842
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:20,280
Speaker 1: that would drive me bonkers. And that's why I hate

843
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 1: pull averaging and all of those things. All that said,

844
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:27,960
Speaker 1: what's your preferred methodology to get up these days in

845
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:32,880
Speaker 1: order to feel like you've got a good handle on

846
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 1: public opinion research? What kind of methodology are you looking

847
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:39,439
Speaker 1: for these days compared to save twenty years ago.

848
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 2: Well, and I agree with everything you said in terms

849
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:44,479
Speaker 2: of the state of polling, and I think polsters should

850
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 2: be applauded because they've adapted and evolved quite admirably.

851
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:52,720
Speaker 1: Great. It's hard. It's never been harder.

852
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 2: No, it's never been harder, and it just keeps getting harder,

853
00:47:55,360 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 2: you know, Apple putting into place. All make things even

854
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 2: harder for bolsters because the call will just be funneled

855
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:05,959
Speaker 2: right to junk folders. So you know what I look for.

856
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 2: Mixed mode survey data collection is incredibly important now. I

857
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 2: think it's one of the things that we learned, and

858
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 2: again I think most polsters are doing a great job.

859
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 1: So they are. Let's put that in a little bit

860
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 1: of American for people, Mixed mode for those that don't

861
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 1: follow the industry means what.

862
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 2: So that means they're collecting data by not just one method.

863
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 2: So they're texting people, they're doing online surveys, they're calling people,

864
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 2: they're calling their landlines. Some people still into landlines.

865
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 1: So they're almost picking a mode based on the demographic preference. Right,

866
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 1: if you know younger people prefer text a web, then

867
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 1: you text a web everybody under the age of thirty, right,

868
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 1: landlines over the age of seventy, etcetera.

869
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 2: Right, Every mode has its bias, and so if you

870
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 2: can collect data through multiple modes, it gets more expensive.

871
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:54,839
Speaker 2: But you look at most accurate polsters, that's that's what

872
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 2: they're doing at this point, and I think you're just

873
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 2: going to see you're going to see more of that

874
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 2: going forward, I will say, you know, the other thing

875
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:04,240
Speaker 2: that drives me crazy with the polling, beyond the averaging

876
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 2: of poles, is the cross tab diving.

877
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that's it. That's worse straight like, oh,

878
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:12,439
Speaker 1: don't do that.

879
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 2: But you know, we'll see movement among independent white women

880
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 2: in one state between one pole and another and then

881
00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:22,360
Speaker 2: write a front page story about how they moved. And

882
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 2: the reality is none of that has the level of

883
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 2: fidelity that we could, you know, provide that level of credit.

884
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 1: We used to have a rule at the NBC News

885
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:34,120
Speaker 1: Pole and NBC Well Set Journal Pole and hart mcin

886
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 1: Turf were both like this, two poles in a row

887
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:39,720
Speaker 1: and a subgroup. Don't go crazy when you see a switch.

888
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 1: Two poles in a row. And that was always the rule.

889
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 1: We did not ever ride about a swing until we

890
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,840
Speaker 1: saw two poles in a row. You know. Even then,

891
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,400
Speaker 1: you know you're talking about a subset of eighty to

892
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty, you know, on some of these

893
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:56,240
Speaker 1: demographics cross tabs.

894
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 2: But anyway, only everyone would follow your lead on that.

895
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,719
Speaker 1: It's fair enough and let me get out, get you

896
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:04,560
Speaker 1: out in here. And this what's the three public the

897
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 1: nonpartisan polls that you're like when they come out, I

898
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 1: read it all. I read all of it. I go

899
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 1: into the demos and everything.

900
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,479
Speaker 2: You know, what's funny is is I have spent less

901
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 2: and less time this year digging into the polls, which

902
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,399
Speaker 2: I think has been for me. But you know, look,

903
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 2: I love the New York Times polls. I don't love

904
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,239
Speaker 2: how people sometimes cover them or how they digest them,

905
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 2: but I think they do an incredible job.

906
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 1: I love I love their transparency. That's right. I mean,

907
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 1: they're analysis. It's funny how a couple of times they've

908
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:41,160
Speaker 1: literally been your poll told you the answer and you

909
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 1: didn't write it. But anyway, I agree they're transparency. I

910
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 1: should be commended.

911
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 2: I've mentioned the Navigator surveys. I think they do a

912
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 2: great job.

913
00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 1: You know.

914
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 2: I mean that I think we get a little bit

915
00:50:51,520 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 2: too obsessed about who was the accurate polster last time.

916
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 2: You have a whole bunch of pollsters who tend to

917
00:50:57,040 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 2: out outcomes that are more Republican. You have some that

918
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:04,279
Speaker 2: are reliably more democratic. And if the election swings one way,

919
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:06,360
Speaker 2: then those pollsters look good, and if it swings the

920
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 2: other way, look good. And I think we need to.

921
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 1: I just want consistency, Like I know quinip X consistent.

922
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 1: I think they have a bit of a lien. They're consistent, Emerson,

923
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:17,400
Speaker 1: I think they have a bit of a lien, but

924
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 1: it's consistent. Like, as long as it's consistent, then I

925
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 1: can I do my own math. All right, I'm going

926
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 1: to add to or I'm going to subtract to or

927
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 1: whatever it is, and that's where I go. But but

928
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 1: that's usually I'm sure what you look for consistency.

929
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's exactly right. You need to be able

930
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 2: to make some of your own mental adjustments and calculations

931
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 2: for sure.

932
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, Tom Bon here, this was appreciate you geeking out

933
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 1: with me, and uh, we'll see how the vote. Do

934
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 1: you see evidence that the party is throwing real energy

935
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: in voter registration yet or not?

936
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 2: Well, you're seeing it, and again you're seeing you're seeing

937
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,640
Speaker 2: more of these outside groups that have existed that had

938
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 2: success last time around are doing it too. In terms

939
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:03,439
Speaker 2: of party party doings and registration. I will say I've

940
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: heard a lot more talk about that happening, a lot

941
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 2: more people pushing for that happening. I believe you will

942
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:11,319
Speaker 2: see investment from the party and that as we get

943
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:12,640
Speaker 2: into the midterm elections next.

944
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:17,480
Speaker 1: I'd imagine they want to show something on that front.

945
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,120
Speaker 1: That's for sure. Tom appreciate the time. Great stop with me.

946
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:20,719
Speaker 1: Thank you.