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Speaker 1: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntire.

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Speaker 2: What is up?

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Speaker 3: Straight firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Friday,

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Speaker 3: December fifteenth. Well, uh, we thought that the game of

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Speaker 3: Thursday night football was going to be total garbage? And

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Speaker 3: would you look at that? Would you look at that?

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Speaker 3: The Chargers decide to no show for their coach. I

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Speaker 3: guess we can barely call him coach. I don't know

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Speaker 3: how he hasn't been let go at this point, hopefully

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Speaker 3: shortly Brandon Staley, and they fall behind forty two nothing

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Speaker 3: at half to the Raiders, who, let me just remind everybody,

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Speaker 3: the Raiders could not score a point at home on

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Speaker 3: Sunday at home, zero points against the Vikings, and then

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Speaker 3: they come out and just open a can on the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: who looked like they did not want to be there

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Speaker 3: from the jump. I was the smart guy who decided,

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Speaker 3: you know what, let me take a chance on the

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Speaker 3: Raiders defense in fantasy.

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Speaker 2: And oh yeah, did they come through for me.

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Speaker 3: And my son's twelve year old playoff game as well?

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Speaker 2: Great showing.

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Speaker 3: I just I gotta be honest, I'd never heard of

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Speaker 3: the name Trey Tucker in my life. Okay, I had

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Speaker 3: to look him up. He had eight catches coming into

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Speaker 3: the game. The dude has two touchdowns in the first half,

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Speaker 3: his first two NFL touchdowns. So the first half alone,

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Speaker 3: I mean, the Chargers just did not want to be there.

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Speaker 3: It was very clear offensively, Easton Stick with a fumble,

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Speaker 3: Josh Kelly with a fumble, Darius Davis the rookie with

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Speaker 3: the fumble. It's like, oh dear, it's whether it's special

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Speaker 3: teams running the football, quarterback sacks, just a total beat down.

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Speaker 2: The total, by the way, was bet up.

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Speaker 3: To thirty six and a half from like I think

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Speaker 3: thirty three Raiders cleared up by himself in the first half.

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Speaker 3: And you know, Al Michaels and Herb Street were joking

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Speaker 3: around in the booth.

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Speaker 2: You know, maybe they won't need us for the second time.

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Speaker 3: Maybe we don't need to be here. You know, the

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Speaker 3: Chargers don't want to be here. Why do we One

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Speaker 3: of those games we told you it was gonna be crap,

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Speaker 3: and it was crap. Now the rest of the Week

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Speaker 3: fifteen lineup, we will be breaking that down here shortly

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Speaker 3: with Adam Churnoff. He's one of the good guys on gambling.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't get a much better than Adam Turnoff. He

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Speaker 3: hosts a five day a week podcast, The Simple Handicap,

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Speaker 3: and we go in depth into a lot of games.

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Speaker 3: Then we chime in on I get him to I

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Speaker 3: rope a dope him into Cam Newton VERSU Dak Prescott.

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Speaker 3: He was blissfully unaware that Cam had, you know, kind

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Speaker 3: of gone off. And that's how locked in he is

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Speaker 3: on gambling. So we'll dive into that at the end.

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Speaker 3: I since we break down a lot of games at

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Speaker 3: the end, I'll just fire off a couple bets. I

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Speaker 3: have no big major haymakers this weekend for me. Listen,

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Speaker 3: you don't have to go firing every weekend and shoot

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Speaker 3: your wad. Christmas is coming up. The board is tough.

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Speaker 3: Look at how many lines are two and a half

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Speaker 3: and three and a half this week. That's a sign

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Speaker 3: that this is going to be a difficult week. Okay,

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Speaker 3: just be careful, folks. Listen to turn Off, come back

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Speaker 3: for the best bets at the end. Enjoy Adam Turnoff

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Speaker 3: right angle. Sports football is back. No more preseason games.

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Speaker 3: The regular season is here. While we all love watching

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Speaker 3: our favorite teams on television, there is nothing better than

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Speaker 3: being in a game live and in person.

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Speaker 2: And the best way to get tickets to any of these.

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Speaker 3: Games is on game Time, the fastest growing ticketing app

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Speaker 3: to see your favorite football teams this September. Download game Time.

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Speaker 3: last minute tickets, lowest price guarantee.

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Speaker 1: You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports

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Speaker 1: fans want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows a

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Speaker 1: guy who does.

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Speaker 4: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 4: guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's welcome into straight fire. You know, Adam Chernoff,

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Speaker 3: come on right, Angle Sports probably probably one of the

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Speaker 3: more intelligent voices in sports media. You know, I've tried

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Speaker 3: to get him to Fox. I mean, he's really good

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Speaker 3: in sharp Adam.

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Speaker 2: How you doing, man, I'm.

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Speaker 4: Doing That's a debatable debatable phrase there, but hey, we'll

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Speaker 4: go with it.

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Speaker 2: If you're saying it, I'll go with it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, birth let's start. I know you doing the contest A.

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Speaker 3: Are you still alive in Survivor? B? How are you

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Speaker 3: doing in the Circa five Picks a Week contest?

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Speaker 4: We lost out in Survivor When was that the Pats

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Speaker 4: the video game when they won ten to seven against

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Speaker 4: New England.

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Speaker 2: So that's what took us.

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Speaker 4: Out contest for Circa. I think there was like sort

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Speaker 4: of a weaned off interest from that. With college basketball

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Speaker 4: that ticked up. We're right on the fringe of a

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Speaker 4: quarterly and then that faded away. But we are still

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Speaker 4: actively in the Super Contest Gold, which is the lesser

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Speaker 4: talked about five thousand dollars winner take all contest. Wow,

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Speaker 4: And so I'm looking at it right now. We are

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Speaker 4: We have forty two points, forty and twenty six and

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Speaker 4: we are four points back of first place.

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Speaker 2: So you're in the mix.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's pretty tight at the top, but yeah, it'll

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Speaker 4: be down to the wire.

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Speaker 2: So is that you and a bunch of dudes or

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Speaker 2: just like you and another guy. It's a couple of

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Speaker 2: us representing the brand.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, five five K, that's a steep buyen for Winner

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Speaker 3: take All.

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Speaker 2: It's weird.

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Speaker 3: The contest has not been great to me this season.

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Speaker 3: I'm having a great season gambling. The picks on Fox,

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Speaker 3: the picks on this pot are doing great. But when

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Speaker 3: it comes to the contest, man, I'm a mess. And

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Speaker 3: they just released the lines for this weekend's games. I

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Speaker 3: want to start with with what's kind of probably a

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Speaker 3: controversial take. Is this Buffalo Dallas game. It seems like

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Speaker 3: it's the best game of the weekend. It's the kind

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Speaker 3: of the what four to twenty five game that's going

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Speaker 3: to get all the attention. And it's weird because Buffalo's favored,

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Speaker 3: and you've got the usual people saying, how can that be?

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Speaker 3: Dallas is unbelievable. They're unstoppable. Adam, could you can you

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Speaker 3: educate real quick?

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Speaker 2: What was the controversial take? I was waiting You.

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Speaker 3: Said Buffalo's favored by one and a half or two

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Speaker 3: or let's see what we are?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm see too right now it's two. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I expected to really like Buffalo.

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Speaker 4: As I was watching it was the first half of

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Speaker 4: the Kansas City game, I was like, I'm looking forward

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Speaker 4: to this game against Dallas.

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Speaker 2: I want to take Buffalo.

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Speaker 4: I was expecting to see pick them maybe Dallas minus

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Speaker 4: one as a line, and I thought that this quite

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Speaker 4: frankly opened right. I thought that it became the right opener.

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Speaker 4: I think we're sitting at the right price now, and

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Speaker 4: so there's really not much of an opinion if we're

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Speaker 4: going to go kind of like controversy or.

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Speaker 2: Push a take.

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Speaker 4: I thought the way that the Buffalo Bills finished the

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Speaker 4: second half against the Kansas City Chiefs was among the

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Speaker 4: most disappointing halfs of football we've seen from any team

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Speaker 4: all season long. I know they got the win, but

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Speaker 4: the way that they finished that left sort of zero

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Speaker 4: optimism or zero confidence for what the offense can do

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Speaker 4: going forward.

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Speaker 2: I think that's gonna be a problem.

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Speaker 4: But if that played out a different way, boy, I

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Speaker 4: sure would would have really liked to see Buffalo.

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Speaker 2: But that was off the buy.

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Speaker 4: You have to remember, too, they just did nothing to finish.

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Speaker 3: If McDermott really screwed up that final drive in the

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Speaker 3: red zone there with the clock and some of the

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Speaker 3: passing versus running and forcing Casey to use timeouts. It's

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Speaker 3: weird again. If Casey wins that game. I don't even

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Speaker 3: know if mcdermot's is still coaching. I don't know if

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Speaker 3: they'd fire a midseason but admitted he was awful. They're

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Speaker 3: down the stretch on the play calls.

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Speaker 2: He was awful a lot.

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Speaker 4: I think has the finger pointed at Joe Brady, but

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Speaker 4: I don't know if that is from McDermott himself or

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Speaker 4: if that's I don't know. Like you have James Cook

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Speaker 4: having a great game and he's getting fifty percent of snaps.

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Speaker 4: You have digs just disappearing from games on a weekly basis.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what. I don't know what they're doing.

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Speaker 4: And it's frustrating because there's so much talent out there,

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Speaker 4: but what are you getting them from them on a

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Speaker 4: week to week basis. It's it's really hard to figure out.

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Speaker 4: But how is that was bad in the second half?

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Speaker 4: Some success rate that's really really bad.

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Speaker 3: A week ago, before the Dallas schame, I'm sorry. Before

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs game, we were saying, listen, if you want

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Speaker 3: to buy some bills stock, now's the time. To do it.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, next week they got the Cowboys. The lines

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Speaker 3: have shrunk for them to win the AFC East. It

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Speaker 3: helped a lot that the Dolphins totally collapse against the Titans.

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Speaker 3: Dolphins schedules brutal. Are you buying the Bills as like

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Speaker 3: a legit super Bowl? I think I saw them like

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Speaker 3: plus seven hundred to win the AFC was it or

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Speaker 3: something in that six twenty five somewhere in that neighborhood

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Speaker 3: earlier today.

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Speaker 2: Can the Buffalo Bills pull it off?

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Speaker 3: And, like you know, with no home field advantage, will

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Speaker 3: be a wild card team likely?

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Speaker 2: Can they go ahead and run the table get to

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl?

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Speaker 4: Bad answer for my part as a guest. The answer

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Speaker 4: is no, you can't do it this week at this price.

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Speaker 4: But the answer is yes, I think they can do it.

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Speaker 4: I think it's just priced correctly as you mentioned last week.

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Speaker 4: Completely different answer. You're saying, yes, take everything that you

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Speaker 4: can now this week it's been adjusted. I mean these

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Speaker 4: prices have been slashed for Super Bowl, for AFC, for playoffs. Yes, no,

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Speaker 4: it's all come in so it's priced right. But to

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Speaker 4: your point, yes, I think that they can make a run.

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Speaker 4: This game is going to dictate whether or not they

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Speaker 4: have a chance to really be in that picture. But

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Speaker 4: everyone ahead of them and everybody around them is dealing

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Speaker 4: with quarterback injuries, quarterback uncertainty. There's massive flaws with arguably

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Speaker 4: every single AFC team that's a playoff contender at the moment,

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Speaker 4: and this is going to be a Bills team that.

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Speaker 4: I mean, maybe if you're at Baltimore, depending on how

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Speaker 4: this shakes out, you're probably seeing them three and a

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Speaker 4: half point underdogs, maybe, but everybody else, I mean, we

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Speaker 4: just saw them in kc C take money on game

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Speaker 4: day at less than a field goal. Who They're gonna

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Speaker 4: be favored against a handful of these other teams as well,

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Speaker 4: whether that's in the first or second round. And so

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Speaker 4: they're the one team that no team in the AFC

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Speaker 4: wants to get the wild card round or the first

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Speaker 4: round of the playoffs. I mean, that's a scary proposition

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Speaker 4: if they are able to get in.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean when you look at the standings, it's

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Speaker 3: like currently Miami's two and I think it is Pittsburgh seven,

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Speaker 3: or maybe it's a I think Cleveland, Cleveland, Indianapolis and

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh are like five six seven in some kind of order.

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Speaker 3: Are we looking at all of those guys's touchdown dog

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Speaker 3: in the opening round? I mean we're talking about Gardner

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Speaker 3: Minshew on the road in.

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Speaker 2: The playoffs against Buffalo or against anybody. I mean against anybody.

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Speaker 2: I would say against anybody.

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Speaker 4: So right now, if we just looked at just market

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Speaker 4: ratings based on how lines have closed for the fourteen

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Speaker 4: weeks so far this season, the Bills are number three

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Speaker 4: in market ratings. That's equal to Miami, five points better

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Speaker 4: than an average team. But if you go down to

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Speaker 4: some of these other teams, the Browns two and a

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Speaker 4: half points worse than an average team, the Bolts two

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Speaker 4: and a half points worse, the Texans two and a

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Speaker 4: half points worse, right, Like, you're right on the Broncos

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Speaker 4: a point and a half worse. All of these teams,

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Speaker 4: for the most part, rated below average. I didn't even

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Speaker 4: mention the Steelers a point and a half worse themselves.

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Speaker 4: And so you're spot on and saying that you're going

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Speaker 4: to see a lot of these teams against the top

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Speaker 4: in the AFC, whether it's Kansas City, Miami or Baltimore

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Speaker 4: as really hefty underdogs on the road.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to the Broncos. You mentioned them.

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Speaker 3: The line against Detroit's kind of been pinging around. I

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Speaker 3: think I saw four four and a half, five five

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Speaker 3: and a half. Now it looks like it's.

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Speaker 2: Four and a half.

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Speaker 3: What do you make of this Detroit defense? It seems abysmal.

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Speaker 3: I don't see them stopping Russell, Wilson and John even

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Speaker 3: though they stopped themselves more than anything in the last

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Speaker 3: couple weeks.

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Speaker 4: I think the Lions defense for the better part of

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Speaker 4: the last two months has been probably the most overrated

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Speaker 4: defense in the NFL. It's really been adjusted down quite

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Speaker 4: a bit, though. If you look at a lot of

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Speaker 4: aggregate rankings, the Lions defensively are somewhere between twenty seven

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Speaker 4: and thirty one. So this was a unit that was

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Speaker 4: like high teens eleven, twelve, thirteen for the majority of

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Speaker 4: the first half of the season, and it was like,

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Speaker 4: there's no way that they can play to that level,

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Speaker 4: and so there's really not a lot further that they

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Speaker 4: can be downgraded, and a lot of that is kind

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Speaker 4: of priced into the market at this point. I actually

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Speaker 4: think that this is the first week, I'm going to say,

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Speaker 4: in about two months that we have seen a fair

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Speaker 4: price to bet the Detroit Lions. I mean, this team

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Speaker 4: has been inflated forever this season, and it was really

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Speaker 4: that Chicago game last week. Could even go to the

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Speaker 4: Chicago game three weeks ago where there was a lot

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Speaker 4: of late week money coming in against the Lions, and

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Speaker 4: so it happened in both of the Chicago games. Last

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Speaker 4: week was kind of I think the floor for the Lions.

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Speaker 4: And so now it's Goff going back home, he's indoors.

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Speaker 4: This is a team that's going to be able to

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Speaker 4: run a ton on the Denver Broncos, who just concede

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Speaker 4: yardage to every different offense they face weekly on the ground,

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Speaker 4: and so I think it's a really comfortable Lions offensive up.

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Speaker 4: But to your point, I do think the Broncos will

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Speaker 4: have success moving the football. I don't think they can

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Speaker 4: match the Lions output though, So for me, the Lions

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Speaker 4: here minus four and a half is an easy decision.

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Speaker 3: Easy wow. Okay, So Lions have struggled to stop the

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Speaker 3: running quarterback. Justin Fields killed him twice. So I don't

286
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Speaker 3: know if Russell Wilson qualifies as a running quarterback anymore.

287
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Speaker 3: But I did look at his rushing numbers and you know,

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Speaker 3: the last well like five games, he's rushing sneaky way

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Speaker 3: more and it's almost like, listen, we don't want him

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Speaker 3: to make mistakes, don't throw interceptions.

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Speaker 2: Just tuck and run.

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Speaker 3: I feel like that's probably going to be open and

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Speaker 3: de Troit a lot here, and for me the question becomes,

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Speaker 3: you know, can Denver get stops against Detroit? Goff has

295
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Speaker 3: had some wacky starts lately, man like just falling into

296
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Speaker 3: big holes against green Bay Chicago.

297
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Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of this team.

298
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Speaker 4: So Wilson's going to have one of those sneaky, frustrating

299
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Speaker 4: games to bet against where he gets the long third

300
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Speaker 4: down conversion with his legs or he sneaks out of

301
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Speaker 4: the pocket, kind of reminiscent of what he did with

302
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Speaker 4: Seattle for so many years that was just painful to

303
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Speaker 4: bet against. But it's not justin Field's esque where it

304
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,840
Speaker 4: completely changes the game. The first game against the Lions,

305
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Speaker 4: Fields runs for over one hundred yards. He had like

306
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Speaker 4: eighteen carries, like it was silly. Wilson's not going to

307
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Speaker 4: do that Broncos right now. Offensively, it's Sean Payton trying

308
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Speaker 4: to be super conservative, not make mistakes, reduce the variants,

309
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Speaker 4: and then he's very selective with the shots that he

310
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Speaker 4: takes downfield. He's either taking the sure thing, getting the

311
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Speaker 4: underneath throw, targeting running backs, keeping it very easy and conservative,

312
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Speaker 4: or he's going for the big play downfield. And what's

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Speaker 4: really happened in the last couple of weeks is it's

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Speaker 4: been too late when he switched to try to take

315
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Speaker 4: those shots. And I really think that the Lions get

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Speaker 4: out and start leading, and a lot of the Broncos

317
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Speaker 4: offensive success will be chasing and trying to keep up.

318
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Speaker 4: But I just don't see Denver being able to go

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Speaker 4: with full four quarters trying to keep up with the

320
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Speaker 4: Lions in this game. So as overrated as I think

321
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Speaker 4: the Lions defense has been, I really think it's a

322
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Speaker 4: fair price here for Detroit.

323
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Speaker 2: I like them at four and a half.

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Speaker 3: The other Saturday games aren't great, but I do think

325
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Speaker 3: i'd like Minnesota, but it looks like the three and

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Speaker 3: a halfs might be going in Cincinnati. This is Nick Mullens,

327
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Speaker 3: the immortal Nick Mullens from his Kyle Shanahan days, and

328
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Speaker 3: Flores is doing a great job defensively. Meanwhile, Jake Browning,

329
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Speaker 3: all of a sudden remember the first game he came

330
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Speaker 3: against Pittsburgh, he was a bus one.

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Speaker 2: It's like, oh, well, just fade him the rest of

332
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Speaker 2: the year.

333
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Speaker 3: And then he comes out and slays against Jacksonville.

334
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Speaker 2: Flores versus Browning feels like a mismatch. Huh.

335
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Speaker 4: What Brian Flores has been able to do is pretty incredible. Like,

336
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Speaker 4: he came out the first four weeks of the season

337
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Speaker 4: had a blitz rate percentage that has never been seen

338
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Speaker 4: before in the NFL.

339
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Speaker 2: It was sixty percent. It was crazy.

340
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Speaker 4: And now week to week he is going with so

341
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Speaker 4: many different, multiple game plans, reducing the blitz rate to

342
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,240
Speaker 4: ten fifteen percent one week, going back up to sixty

343
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:25,320
Speaker 4: percent the next week. The formation and personnel that he's

344
00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,920
Speaker 4: deploying is really really unique, and so a huge surprise

345
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Speaker 4: to me is how great Flores has been with his

346
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Speaker 4: defensive play calling. I think if there's something that I

347
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 4: could kind of point out here in terms of how

348
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,320
Speaker 4: these two teams are sort of looked at and rated,

349
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Speaker 4: The Bengals offense with Burrow was rated top six offensively,

350
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Speaker 4: and when Browning came in, they dropped down to about

351
00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,280
Speaker 4: twenty six. So it was a massive change, right for

352
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Speaker 4: someone like Joe Burrow going out. I think we're realizing

353
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Speaker 4: now that, first of all, Browning is not nearly as

354
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Speaker 4: bad as we thought that he was. I'll be facing

355
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Speaker 4: two very soft defenses the last two weeks in these

356
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,480
Speaker 4: breakout spots. But it also shows what happens when you

357
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,560
Speaker 4: have a backup quarterback surrounded by really good playmakers, what

358
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 4: could potentially occur. And so I don't think that Browning

359
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:17,959
Speaker 4: elevates the Bengals, say, to a offensive rating of like

360
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,159
Speaker 4: fourteenth or fifteenth, But I do think he's much better

361
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 4: than the floor that he has been at. And so

362
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:28,120
Speaker 4: let's see if these screen passes and these short throws

363
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 4: can be timed up well enough by Cincinnati to take

364
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:35,120
Speaker 4: advantage of the aggressive Vikings defense, or if we finally

365
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,679
Speaker 4: see Browning, who's just been really short and conservative with

366
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,400
Speaker 4: all his throws, really be tested and start to try

367
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,680
Speaker 4: push the ball downfield, because we just haven't seen him

368
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,320
Speaker 4: do that in his three starts. If there's a lot

369
00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 4: of pressure up front, we might actually see him throwing

370
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,679
Speaker 4: a little bit deeper here. So an interesting gauge on

371
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 4: Cincinnati and what Browning will be the rest of the season.

372
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Speaker 3: Now, I said, I like Minnesota, but usually Adam. The

373
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,560
Speaker 3: very last thing I look at is special teams, and

374
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 3: last week I forgot to look at it for Ravens Rams,

375
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,720
Speaker 3: and of course Rams are dead last in the league.

376
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:08,600
Speaker 2: What happens they give.

377
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:10,960
Speaker 3: Up a freak punt return where there was a clip

378
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,120
Speaker 3: on the play and it was a backup punt returner

379
00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,280
Speaker 3: who I think that was his first career punt return,

380
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,120
Speaker 3: maybe a second, And of course that's like a big one.

381
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 3: I just looked at special teams Minnesota thirtieth. Okay, that's

382
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 3: where Cincinnati is.

383
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 4: Since you're calling it now, I don't know anything about

384
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 4: the special teams DVA. So if you're calling for a

385
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 4: Bengals punt return, I'm impressed.

386
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 2: Well, I don't know about that.

387
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,239
Speaker 3: I'm talking like a missed extra point at three three

388
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,960
Speaker 3: and a half, like field goals extra points. That's the

389
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,199
Speaker 3: kind of stuff that's killed me, dude, all season. Now,

390
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:43,040
Speaker 3: I did get lucky with Browns Jags last week, but

391
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,680
Speaker 3: I don't know. Do you factor DVA special teams any

392
00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:46,040
Speaker 3: of that in.

393
00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 4: Not special teams? No, I really don't know much about that.

394
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,040
Speaker 4: I will say, for the first for the first two

395
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 4: months or so of the season, I think offensive and

396
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:59,639
Speaker 4: defensive DVOA is interesting to look at just because teams

397
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,600
Speaker 4: changed so much, and so it's a team might get

398
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 4: upgraded twelve or thirteen spots and that'll make its way

399
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,879
Speaker 4: into the betting market in some shape or fashion, and

400
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:11,919
Speaker 4: so I like to look at that. But now that

401
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 4: we're at the end of the season, everything's kind of

402
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 4: settled into place, and so it's more so just trying

403
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:22,400
Speaker 4: to see kind of scheduling quirks or over performance against

404
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,159
Speaker 4: certain units recently that have been over underperforming.

405
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 2: But yeah, no, I don't.

406
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 4: Know much about the special team stuff, but I'll leave

407
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 4: that one to you. I think you just called the

408
00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 4: Bengals punt return.

409
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 3: Listen, if that happens, I demand a shout out.

410
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:38,479
Speaker 2: It'll somewhere so much.

411
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 4: Who's the return to Trenton Irwin or who's I don't

412
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 4: even know who's taking.

413
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:43,879
Speaker 2: Or I'm more concerned about the kickers.

414
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:45,919
Speaker 3: Man, some of these NFL kickers are killing I mean,

415
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,399
Speaker 3: Moody killed me money line parlays in Cleveland.

416
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 2: Anyways, let's go on Vikings.

417
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 4: Very sharp professional money at four and four and a

418
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:55,959
Speaker 4: half from people that I know in respect quite highly.

419
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 4: So that's that's working in your favor there.

420
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, I'll take it. I want to know

421
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 3: who's betting the Arizona Cardinals against the Niners. Why is

422
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,200
Speaker 3: this line moved down a little bit? I know Niners

423
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 3: aren't really playing for covers at this point. It looks

424
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:11,680
Speaker 3: to me like they're probably gonna consider, you know, fourth

425
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,679
Speaker 3: quarter up three touchdowns. Hey, let's just rein it in.

426
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:16,719
Speaker 3: Let's pull the oars in. Let's hand off to Mason.

427
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 3: Let's save the battle McCaffrey for the postseason. We don't

428
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 3: need debo hurt again. That's just pure speculation. Obviously they

429
00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:26,439
Speaker 3: want the number one seed, but they don't care about covering.

430
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,919
Speaker 3: And I watched that Arizona game. That was a huge sweat.

431
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 3: Arizona dropped like two passes in the I think in

432
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 3: the end zone, are near the end zone, and Sanfran

433
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 3: covered last time. Double digit spread. Go ahead and tell

434
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 3: me stay away from it. But I can't quit the Niners, man.

435
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 4: I don't have an opinion on this one personally. What

436
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 4: I will say is I couldn't help. But notice the

437
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 4: Cardinals got bet and the Pats got bet, and those

438
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,880
Speaker 4: were against the Chiefs and Niners. Obviously who were laying

439
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 4: pretty big numbers here on the road. I will say

440
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 4: for the Niners specifically, they were kind of clunky against

441
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 4: Seattle is the word that I would use, And so

442
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 4: maybe not the most confidence inspiring victory. And then you're

443
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 4: seeing a number here that, I mean, at thirteen and

444
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 4: a half and fourteen, it was like visually inflated. There's

445
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 4: a question of its like, eh, can you back the Cardinals?

446
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 4: But I could see that maybe there's justification you're saying

447
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 4: that this is a tough spot for San Francisco. Played

448
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 4: last week at home in the division. Now they fly

449
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 4: to Glendale, and they return next week at home for

450
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 4: a huge game against the Baltimore Ravens, And so you

451
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 4: could maybe say a bad performance out of Seattle, not

452
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,479
Speaker 4: so much confidence inspiring, big number that's inflated against the

453
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 4: Cardinals out of the by and with the Ravens on

454
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 4: deck at home in a huge game.

455
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 2: I could see the case being made for that. But

456
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 2: I'll pass on this one. Oh that's really good.

457
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,440
Speaker 3: I had not looked to the next game yet, So

458
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,680
Speaker 3: then I have to ask you, who does Baltimore play? Oh, look,

459
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 3: they played Jacksonville this week, so that's in the AFC.

460
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 3: So I doubt they're overlooking jackson Villain. If memory serves,

461
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 3: last year Baltimore had a massive collapse against Jacksonville and lost.

462
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,639
Speaker 3: Maybe it was two years ago, But does the same

463
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 3: thing apply to Ravens Jags as Hey, maybe this is

464
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 3: a look ahead spot Baltimore sanfran will be hyped as

465
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,359
Speaker 3: a super Bowl match next week or does that not

466
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 3: factor in at all to your handicap?

467
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, it certainly.

468
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 4: It certainly matters a little bit, Like it's not an

469
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 4: easy spot to go down to Florida for a late

470
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,160
Speaker 4: game and then go across the country the next week

471
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 4: to San Francisco. I mean that certainly, it's it's a

472
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 4: little bit of a tricky spot. The Ravens just came

473
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 4: out of a weather game where they went into overtime

474
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 4: against the Rams. You mentioned the punt return, and now

475
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 4: this is potentially going to be another heavy win game.

476
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 4: So the Miami game is really impacted by wind. There

477
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 4: is a forecast projection for this game where the wind

478
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 4: is sort of easing up right around kickoff within Florida.

479
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 4: These games that can change a ton very very quickly,

480
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 4: and so if this is another game for the Ravens.

481
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 4: That's outdoors against the competing with them in the top

482
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 4: of the AFC standings, and you get some wind impact.

483
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 4: That's certainly going to matter in this game, especially considering

484
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 4: how the Ravens might want to target the Jags defense.

485
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,399
Speaker 4: So I'd say, not only is the spot kind of

486
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 4: coming into play, but you also have weather. You have

487
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,239
Speaker 4: the Ravens coming out of thet game and the rain

488
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 4: and the win against the Rams. That's kind of a

489
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 4: messy spot too for Baltimore.

490
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.

491
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 3: Were you more impressed with the Rams last week against

492
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 3: Baltimore than actually the Ravens were because their defense got shredded.

493
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,440
Speaker 3: I don't know how much the Kyle Hamilton injury mattered,

494
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 3: but they just, for whatever reason, they're not as scary

495
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 3: a team as when they were pulverizing like Detroit and Seattle.

496
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 2: You know, they kind of sputter to beat the Bengals.

497
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 3: They sputtered to beat the Chargers, like they didn't look

498
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 3: overly impressive like a Super Bowl kind of caliber team,

499
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 3: did they.

500
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 2: I I have so.

501
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 4: Much trouble with the Ravens week to week on a

502
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 4: ratings basis. I think you're right like we've seen some

503
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 4: dominant performances from them. Their defense was being compared to

504
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 4: the unit in two thousand that was on the field

505
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 4: that was shutting everybody down, and it was like Lamar's

506
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 4: at MVP level and this offense. And then it's like

507
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 4: they come out and they do what they did against

508
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 4: the Rams, which in that those conditions, the Rams and

509
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 4: indoor dome team. Stafford a history of struggling outdoors. He

510
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 4: hasn't played in Rain and Win since twenty seventeen, and

511
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 4: all of a sudden they come out and Kyraen Williams

512
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 4: and Stafford look fine in those conditions against this vaunted

513
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 4: Ravens defense. And so I've seen the Ravens rated like

514
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 4: historically high week ten, eleven twelve, you mentioned DVOA, they

515
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 4: were right at the top. We saw some market ratings

516
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 4: have them extremely high. Now they're lingering around six or seventh,

517
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 4: and so it's been a considerable drop off the last

518
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 4: month and a half for Baltimore ratings wise. But I

519
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 4: just I don't know, They're so hard to figure out

520
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 4: what you're going to get on a week to week basis,

521
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,919
Speaker 4: and even when they have these fourth quarter leads, they

522
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,719
Speaker 4: should be putting these teams away with how they play offensively,

523
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 4: and that's been a struggle too, and so offensively without

524
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 4: andrews Now, it's like, when is OBJ gonna get put

525
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 4: into the fold? I don't know. It's it's a tough

526
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:06,359
Speaker 4: team to gauge week the week.

527
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,960
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551
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,639
Speaker 3: line long shot, and I mean, listen, I know you're

552
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 3: a Jets guy. Without question, it has to be the Jets.

553
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 3: The Dolphins injury report that just popped today. Eight Chan

554
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 3: did not practice again, Tyreek Hill did not practice again.

555
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,479
Speaker 3: The offensive line is a mash unit right now. Way

556
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 3: they lost the center, and we know quinnin is going

557
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 3: to just annihilate Eikenberg at Robert Hunt not practicing this week.

558
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 3: Like I know, the Jets we want to lose and

559
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 3: improve our draft position, but man, this would be a

560
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 3: great spot for the Jets to go out of Miami

561
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 3: and get the dub No.

562
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,919
Speaker 4: Well, again, this is going to be a win game.

563
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 4: This one, for sure is going to be impacted by

564
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 4: weather quite a bit. And what I don't know is

565
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 4: how either team is going to move the football because

566
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 4: the Jets have not been able to run on anybody

567
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 4: all season long, and Miami is going to be able

568
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 4: to contain whichever back has the ball in his hand.

569
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 4: So I don't think Zach Wilson's coming out and having

570
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 4: any success throwing. If this wind is going to be

571
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 4: twenty five to thirty miles per hour, it's just not happening.

572
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 4: So so I don't know how the Jets are moving

573
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 4: the football. But like you said, I think back remember

574
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 4: the Eagles game against the Dolphins that was like a

575
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 4: Sunday night football game earlier in the season, and the

576
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 4: Dolphins lost three offensive linemen in that game against a

577
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: very good defensive front, and they could do nothing on

578
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 4: the ground either. And I kind of with the way

579
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 4: that the injuries are stacking up, like you mentioned, I

580
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 4: don't know how they're going to run on this Jets

581
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,239
Speaker 4: defensive front. That's going to be tough for them to

582
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 4: do as well. I just I don't know where a

583
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 4: lot of the offense comes from on either side, so

584
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 4: you may be onto something with that. Jets upset bid,

585
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 4: but it's going to be a tough time for the

586
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 4: Jets to find the end zone.

587
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 3: So again, I'm just trying to get in your head

588
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 3: as to how you handicap a game like this. So Dolphins,

589
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 3: and you can't put a number on this, you can't

590
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 3: quantify it. But Miami blows a fourteen point lead in

591
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 3: the final three minutes at home on Monday night football

592
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 3: just shell shocked and they lose Tyreek and a bunch

593
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 3: of other dudes. Yep, how do you how do you

594
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 3: factor that in? Obviously the total's plunging here, maybe the

595
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 3: wind is a factor, but this is nine and a

596
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 3: half down to eight and a half, Like, how do

597
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 3: you look at that and say, well, there's no way

598
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 3: Miami isn't going to be a little rattled and shaken.

599
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 3: And then they start to look at the schedule and

600
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 3: it's like, okay, Jets, but then the final three games

601
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 3: are as tough as anybody else in the league, and

602
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 3: it's like, I don't know how you can I mean,

603
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 3: they smashed the Jets last time. So they're probably thinking, Okay,

604
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 3: we'll get the win here, We're still fine position ourselves

605
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 3: for the end, Like I don't. That's just the kind

606
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 3: of thing that's difficult to put into the handicap.

607
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 4: Okay, well, let's talk about that a bit then, because

608
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 4: we can again point to let's just point to the

609
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 4: look aheadline came out last week. This was going to

610
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 4: be Miami minus thirteen at home was the expected point spread,

611
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 4: right because we saw them in the first meeting on

612
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 4: Black Friday, albeit against Tim Boyle. That game closed Dolphins

613
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 4: ten in New York. If I'm not mistaken, that was

614
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 4: a double digit spread. So we kind of had like

615
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 4: that starting point for where this price should be. The

616
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 4: way that the Dolphins game ended, plus the injuries, plus

617
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 4: the loss compared with Zach Wilson getting upgraded versus Boyle

618
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 4: or Simeon or whoever else the Jets wanted to put

619
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 4: out there, plus the win against Houston in dominating fashion,

620
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 4: I adjusted this price quite a bit. I mean, thirteen

621
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 4: to eight and a half nine is a significant move

622
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 4: through the ten off the thirteen. That's a meaningful move

623
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 4: and kind of reflects everything that we just talked about,

624
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 4: and so now it's really a question of has this

625
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 4: not gone far enough? And if you're making that case,

626
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 4: I don't think anybody's looking at the Jets at seven.

627
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 4: If that was the case, you'd certainly be betting Miami,

628
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 4: And if this was ten back the other way, you're

629
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 4: probably betting New York. So you can say that, well,

630
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 4: the price is kind of right there at this spot,

631
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:20,560
Speaker 4: which is the same argument that can be made for

632
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,719
Speaker 4: so many games this time of season. But it's really

633
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 4: been adjusted a lot in the span of four days

634
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 4: based on where we were before those games kicked off Sunday.

635
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, everything's baked into the line. And one of the

636
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 3: things that.

637
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: The most part for the most part, yeah no.

638
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 3: Certainly had worked earlier in the season is teams that

639
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 3: did cover versus teams that didn't cover, right, And you

640
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 3: just look at that as part of the handicap, and

641
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, if I've got to if it's a

642
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 3: fifty to fifty play, you know what, I'm gonna go

643
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 3: that way. That adjusted mid season and I've been off that.

644
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 3: But this is another one Jets covered last week. Dolphins

645
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 3: do not in an Island game. Jets took down a

646
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 3: Houston team that the public loved, and that's probably part

647
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 3: of that five point move right definitely.

648
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 4: And I would say one of the biggest things that

649
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 4: I've learned working with the guys at Red Angle Sports,

650
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 4: who are all a team of pros that do this

651
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 4: out and at the highest level there is, is that

652
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 4: often injuries collectively are overvalued in the market, and so

653
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 4: a lot of times this year what I've seen discussed

654
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 4: is the idea of getting sort of a discount with

655
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 4: a team that's much better because injuries have moved the

656
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 4: number too far. A good example of that this week,

657
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 4: very likely going to be the Houston Texans tomorrow if

658
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 4: Stroud is ruled out and that goes to three and

659
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 4: a half. I mean, that's a massive move in that game.

660
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 4: But we're talking Jets Dolphins. The question now is like,

661
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 4: has this moved way too much? Because the market's always

662
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 4: going to adjust. Betters are always going to want to

663
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 4: back based on what was seen last and that was

664
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 4: the Jets looking way better with Wilson running away, the

665
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 4: Dolphins having a rash of injuries and then lose that

666
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 4: game an ugly fashion against Tennessee. So you always get

667
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 4: that adjustment. I find now that so many people are

668
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 4: aware of this and talking about it and often.

669
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 2: Adjusts too far. And I wonder if that's the case

670
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 2: with Miami.

671
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 3: Do you remember how well the Jets played the Dolphins

672
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 3: in two games last year? One was with Mike White

673
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 3: and I remember the other one was versus Teddy Bridgewater

674
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 3: slash Skyler Thompson.

675
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 2: Maybe they think it was Thompson late.

676
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I think Bridgewater got like knocked out on

677
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 3: a safety or something. But bottom line, the Jets defense

678
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 3: really held Miami in check. Now, they didn't face two obviously,

679
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 3: but it's not like Ta lit them up earlier this year,

680
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 3: right in the Thanksgiving game.

681
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 2: I don't know.

682
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 3: I just I feel like Sala against a guy he

683
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 3: used to coach with. I like Jets here, man, I'm

684
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 3: probably gonna do a little on the money line. I'm

685
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 3: not asking you to. You know, you've got a different

686
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 3: bankroll than I do.

687
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 2: Do it?

688
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 3: Anything else to jump out at you, as like, how

689
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 3: the hell is Derek Carr favor by six?

690
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 2: What's going on there?

691
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 4: Well, Saint's an easy decision this week as well. At six,

692
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 4: I'll happily take that number and fade DeVito and the Giants.

693
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 3: Really, that's you'll take Carr and Allen as a heavy favorite.

694
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 4: Carr and Allen, Dinking and Duncan their way against the

695
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 4: Wink Martindale defense. That blitz is like crazy. That's such

696
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 4: a great matchup for the Saints in the offense. I

697
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 4: will say, so this has moved up from four and

698
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 4: a half to six. Six would be like the ceiling

699
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 4: for what I want to take here. This want you

700
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 4: want to talk about teams being adjusted and getting extra

701
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 4: respect they don't deserve off of wins. I don't know

702
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 4: if there's a team that sort of classifies that better

703
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 4: than the Giants. In DeVito and what he's done the

704
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 4: last three weeks against the horrible Commanders defense that doesn't

705
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 4: stop anybody scraping by with two hundred and fifty yards

706
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 4: against the Pats and no drive more than thirty yards

707
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 4: aside from one time, and then we're just celebrating him

708
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 4: like he's a great quarterback in the league because he

709
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,719
Speaker 4: beat at Joe Barry Packers defense that's widely regarded as

710
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 4: one of the softest in the league. I mean, now

711
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 4: he's on the road against the Saints. Have of Saints

712
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 4: all day.

713
00:33:55,760 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 3: For me, that's interesting because Devido crushed me, I meanly

714
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 3: killed me.

715
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 2: The last two weeks.

716
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 3: I had the Patriots and then I had the Packers,

717
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 3: and both of those really stung Man in the contest

718
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 3: as well. I mean it was just divito. First of all,

719
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 3: is de Veto on an NFL roster next year week one?

720
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 3: Or is he a practice squad guy?

721
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:20,480
Speaker 4: N He's probably a backup maybe huh, Probably a backup,

722
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 4: So I mean there's there's a vacancies for backups everywhere.

723
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 4: Probably fits into that backup role and eventually finds his way.

724
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 2: Out of the league like.

725
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 4: Like Dobbs potentially, But yeah, I don't know. I think

726
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 4: he's I think he'll be a backup quarterback next year.

727
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 1: Right.

728
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 2: Two.

729
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 3: More concern level for the Eagles heading into Monday Night

730
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 3: football against the Seahawks. We saw Seattle move the ball

731
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,959
Speaker 3: at will against Dallas. This feels like a massive over.

732
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,759
Speaker 3: I know Prime time Unders had crushed until last week

733
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 3: where I think they went zero to three. Any thoughts

734
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 3: on Eagles Seahawks.

735
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 4: I'd say concern level moderate. Defensively, They've had so many

736
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 4: key injuries all season, and the linebacker group as well

737
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 4: as the secondary, it's a really bad defense. So I

738
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 4: think we're not fully adjusted to just how bad this

739
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 4: Eagles defense actually is. So I think that's a big

740
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 4: concern for sure. Offensively, the absence of Dallas Goddard for

741
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 4: four to five weeks against this really difficult run of

742
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 4: opponents that mattered a ton because without Goddard on the field,

743
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 4: the Eagles just they cannot match up well at all

744
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,399
Speaker 4: against any team that sits in like a cover two

745
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:30,359
Speaker 4: two high shell.

746
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 2: Look.

747
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,800
Speaker 4: He's their guy. They need to be able to exploit

748
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 4: defenses that sit in that look. Because it wasn't happening

749
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 4: with aj Brown just they were doubling him, they were

750
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,320
Speaker 4: bracketing him. They take him away. Sure you have Smith

751
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 4: is a nice number two, but there's nobody else that

752
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 4: the Eagles have, and so they were kind of experimenting

753
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 4: with different formations. It wasn't working out. Hurtz was banged

754
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 4: up and he couldn't run as well, so that threat

755
00:35:56,600 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 4: was taken away. So it's been a combo of Eagles defense,

756
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 4: a really difficult schedule, a couple of key injuries, and

757
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 4: that's really kind of changed the perception on the Eagles

758
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 4: quite a bit. But I'm much more concerned about the

759
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 4: defense than I am the offense.

760
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 3: All right, I'll get out of here on this one, Adam.

761
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 3: This is a little different than a game. But so

762
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 3: you're a thoughtful guy. And this Cam Newton stuff, this

763
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 3: Cam Newton stuff where he's out here calling Dak Prescott

764
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 3: and Brock Purty game managers. I know, ultimately, who cares?

765
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 3: Who cares what Cam Newton thinks? I get it, fine,

766
00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 3: he was a quarterback player at a high level.

767
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 2: I don't.

768
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 3: I'm thinking back to Cam Newton because like after I

769
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 3: got off the show, you know, I see Lashawn McCoy

770
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 3: in the hole. He said, Jay, how could you go

771
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 3: in on my guy Cam like that? And I'm just

772
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:47,760
Speaker 3: like dumbfounded, Like, wait.

773
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 4: When Lashawan McCoy confronts you, is that like an intimidating

774
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 4: spot to be in.

775
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 3: No, No, we're friendly. We talk all that, We text

776
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 3: and stuff. He's a nice guy, but he's like passionate

777
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,240
Speaker 3: and like super chatty and stuff.

778
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 2: So everybody's this is about Cam. I loved him. He

779
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 2: was a superstar, Adam. You watch a lot of football.

780
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:08,879
Speaker 3: This idea that Cam Newton was like, you know, success rate,

781
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 3: You talk about that a lot like, I'm sure his

782
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,439
Speaker 3: success rate was not high. He was a human highlight reel.

783
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 3: He would make splashy, awesome plays and then goodness gracious,

784
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,359
Speaker 3: can't complete a pass turnover machine? Like, I didn't even

785
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 3: realize he never had back to back winning seasons. The

786
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 3: guy won like three playoff games. I just you step away,

787
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 3: be thoughtful about it. What do you make of this

788
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 3: Cam Newton versus Dak Prescott stuff?

789
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:32,240
Speaker 4: Well, I don't even know what the Newton versus Prescott

790
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 4: stuff is, So fill me in on that one.

791
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 2: He'll basically called.

792
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, he basically called Dak Prescott a game manager, And

793
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 3: I'm like, I'd start looking at Dak and I look

794
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 3: at his career and the numbers and completion percentage and

795
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 3: success rate and yards per attempt and all that stuff,

796
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,919
Speaker 3: and it's like, holy cow in with two years less

797
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 3: than Cam Newton, DA's had almost as good of a

798
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 3: career outside of the MVP, And Dak is going to

799
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 3: be in the league much longer than Cam was thirty

800
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:00,720
Speaker 3: two years old, Kim was of the league.

801
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 2: He's not a backup quarterback to anybody.

802
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 3: I think he's just salty that like Tyrod Taylor's a backup,

803
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,320
Speaker 3: and de Veto's out here and Joe Flacco's raking leaves

804
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 3: one month and now he's like leading the Browns to

805
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Like my gut tells me, Cam is just

806
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 3: angry at the state of the NFL and all these

807
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 3: bad backup quarterbacks and he thinks he should be in

808
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 3: the league.

809
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 4: Well, I can't remember exactly what the stat was, but

810
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 4: there was a big piece on rookie quarterback deals and

811
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 4: like what percent make it through and then what percent

812
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 4: get re signed, and then what percent was still in

813
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 4: the league, And Newton was one of the few that

814
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 4: ended up getting that second extension. But perhaps if he

815
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 4: was a better game manager, he would have made it

816
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 4: longer in the league, and he wouldn't have been dumped

817
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 4: by the Patriots right away and then dumped by the

818
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 4: Panthers in the second go around. And so I think

819
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 4: his style and what he brought to the field was

820
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 4: kind of the reason why that physicality ultimately kept him

821
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,800
Speaker 4: out of the league and made him not a viable

822
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 4: option at QB, where some of these other guys just

823
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 4: sit and distribute the ball and avoid taking punishment and

824
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 4: were able to last a little bit longer. I wasn't

825
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 4: expecting to have a Newton take on this. But in

826
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 4: terms of Prescott, what he's doing with Dallas, I mean

827
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 4: the Cowboys. For the better part of the duration of

828
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 4: Prescott's career, you saw Dak Prescott hampered by and sort

829
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 4: of like an excessive need to get the ball to

830
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 4: Ezekiel Elliott, which really limited what Prescott could do and

831
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 4: when he was able to do it. I mean, the

832
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 4: debate for the better part of the first I would

833
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 4: say four or five seasons of Prescott's career was why

834
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 4: is he not being able to allow to throw the

835
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,320
Speaker 4: ball more? Why is he not being given the opportunity

836
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,479
Speaker 4: to throw more on first and second We need less

837
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 4: zeke more passing, And it was taking shots at Jason Garrett,

838
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 4: then it was taking shots at Kellen Moore. It was

839
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 4: never like taking shots at Dak for anything. And now

840
00:39:55,880 --> 00:40:00,439
Speaker 4: this year we're seeing Mike McCarthy really sent to buy,

841
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 4: get out of the way and be like throw it

842
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 4: on first down, throw it on second down. The Cowboys

843
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 4: pass rate versus expectation is one of the highest in

844
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 4: the league, and it's the biggest adjustment since to buy

845
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 4: mid season, and we're really now Dack's in the MVP

846
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 4: discussion because he's being able to throw the football downfield

847
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 4: and he's being able to throw on advantageous downs to

848
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:23,720
Speaker 4: do so, and so I think the same can apply

849
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 4: for a lot of quarterbacks. I don't know why that

850
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 4: term is used in like a slanderous way. People like

851
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 4: the Purty stuff to me is silly because he's making

852
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 4: this terrific offensive system work and he's doing what's required,

853
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,240
Speaker 4: Like what more do you want him to be doing?

854
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 4: I don't know why it's a knock on him to

855
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 4: do that, and so I certainly wouldn't knock Prescott for

856
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 4: doing that either. And I don't know if the Cam

857
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 4: Newton stuff is even relevant to this, And perhaps I

858
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 4: agree with you that he's just angry about it because

859
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 4: he's not in the league.

860
00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's weird, like the big knock on Purty. What

861
00:40:56,719 --> 00:41:00,319
Speaker 3: would brock perty be if he was in Jacksonville. It's

862
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 3: not exactly, but the hypothetical, like sports fans get caught

863
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 3: up in this. This is like a barroom discussion. It's like, well,

864
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 3: Jack Prescott has way better weapons than Cam Newton had.

865
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 4: What would Trevor Lawrence do if he was in San Francisco.

866
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 4: But he's not like you could do this all day.

867
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 1: Yeah.

868
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's kind of lowest common denominator stuff that people

869
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 3: just chew up, and trust me.

870
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,280
Speaker 2: It's you don't want any get anywhere near. I wish.

871
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 4: Here's one of my biggest like gripes as a person

872
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,919
Speaker 4: and now doing this for so long, is that I

873
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 4: really struggled to have like general topic sports discussions because

874
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 4: I watch sports so differently because I'm forced to do

875
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 4: it with football, that I miss out on these takes

876
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 4: and these opinions. And then I see them on shows

877
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 4: and you're on with Colin and everything you're doing, and

878
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 4: you have these takes and opinions, and it opens up

879
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,799
Speaker 4: like this whole world where everybody seemingly has a take,

880
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 4: and it comes down to me and I'm like, I mean,

881
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 4: I'm so far out lunch with what I'm looking at

882
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:03,760
Speaker 4: and on a week to week basis and how that goes,

883
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 4: I wish I had more passionate takes to contribute.

884
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, you got takes just on gambling, and you know,

885
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 3: they're you know, one day good, the next day it's

886
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 3: over onto the next one, you know.

887
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 4: But anyway, it's exactly it's just all the all the

888
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 4: takes live and die so quickly that it's kind of like,

889
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 4: all right, you're moving on.

890
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, So Adam Turnoff, you got to listen to his

891
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 3: daily podcast, Simple Handicap.

892
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 2: He's at Right Angle Sports.

893
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,320
Speaker 3: Adam continued success, Happy holidays, and go Jets.

894
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 2: Likewise, thanks very much for having me on, James.

895
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 1: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

896
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:39,760
Speaker 1: the game. He's making money while you do it. Here's

897
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:40,880
Speaker 1: your best bet.

898
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 3: Great stuff from Adam Turnoff, Right Angle Sports. We broke

899
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 3: down a lot of the game, so I'm not going

900
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 3: to go too deep here on the best bets. But again,

901
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 3: if you look at the board, Cincinnati favor by three,

902
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 3: three and a half, Cleveland favor by three, three and

903
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,879
Speaker 3: a half, Tennessee three, three and a half. The line's

904
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:02,399
Speaker 3: pigging back and forth on these all week. Atlanta three,

905
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 3: Green Bay three and a half, Buffalo two. Indy was

906
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 3: two and a half. Pittsburgh money drives it down to

907
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 3: one and a half. Baltimore three at Jacksonville was three

908
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 3: and a half. Philly three to three and a half

909
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:17,480
Speaker 3: against Seattle again, we've talked about it a lot. Three

910
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 3: and a half usually a sign that they really like

911
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 3: the favorite. Two and a half a sign the day.

912
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 3: And when I say they, I mean like the big

913
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 3: money gamblers, the guys who come in with six figures,

914
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 3: they like they would like the underdog if it's at

915
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 3: two and a half. So my likely looks for the

916
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 3: contest this week, and you know, again, I'm not in

917
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 3: the mix to win the damn thing. So I don't

918
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 3: mind revealing, but it looks like I'm pretty much locked in.

919
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 3: I like the Raiders. I think I like the Vikings

920
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 3: getting points. Churnoff kind of talk me into Detroit, you know.

921
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 3: I like the Jets. I'm looking hard at the Chiefs.

922
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:54,480
Speaker 3: I don't understand what people are seeing on the Patriots,

923
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,520
Speaker 3: like they can't score. And do we not think that

924
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 3: the Chiefs are getting to like seventeen to twenty one points.

925
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 3: I don't see that at all. Buffalo for sure for

926
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 3: me in the contest. I mean I've been hyping it

927
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:08,799
Speaker 3: since Monday. I like Buffalo against Dallas. Looking at the

928
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 3: Bears and that pretty much is it. You know, I

929
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 3: can't make a case for San fran And it's just

930
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 3: I don't think it's playable. It's just too big of

931
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 3: a number, even though I do like the forty nine

932
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:25,400
Speaker 3: ers a lot. So that's week fifteen. It's getting what

933
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 3: do they say, it's getting late early? I mean week fifteen. Now,

934
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 3: I do hear a lot of guys are like, you know, boy,

935
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 3: that Chargers Raiders game was terrible, but trust me, come

936
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 3: April you'll be begging for a Chargers Raiders blowout.

937
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 2: And I'm like, actually I won't. April's like warm weather.

938
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 2: I listen.

939
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 3: I love football as much as the next guy. I

940
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 3: greatly enjoy the football season. But we get to week fifteen,

941
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 3: there's a lot of bad football. I don't want to

942
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 3: be shamed to a computer chair watching all the games.

943
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 3: I love it, but it is a job. I mean,

944
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 3: the podcast has to deliver. I gotta go on TV

945
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 3: and talk about it. But honestly, no, I don't want

946
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,399
Speaker 3: to watch blowout games. I would much rather be playing

947
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 3: volleyball on the beach outside, doing anything but sitting at

948
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 3: home watching crap football and listen Saturday's games. I mean, listen,

949
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 3: there's some bad quarterback play Saturday. I'm not sitting at

950
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 3: home all day pining for that riveting Mitch Trubisky Gardner Minshew.

951
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:25,919
Speaker 2: Battle of the backups. Like, I just don't understand who's

952
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 2: stoked about that?

953
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:29,279
Speaker 3: Nick Mullins. I'm kind of interested to see what he

954
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 3: can do. But Nick Mullens, Jake Brownie, you got like

955
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 3: a four stringer against a backup. Now Denver Detroit's actually good,

956
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: You've got real starting quarterbacks, but in reality, it's just

957
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 3: like the bad quarterback. The one PM slate on Sunday

958
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 3: is disgusting other than Jets and moderate interest in Bears Browns,

959
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 3: but like, who wants to do? I want to see

960
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 3: Davis Mills if he's up in place of Stroud. I

961
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 3: cannot stand DeVito Atlanta, Carolina. I don't know if you

962
00:45:56,560 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 3: guys saw this. I posted it on my Instagram. Atlanta, Carolina.

963
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,040
Speaker 3: You can buy tickets online to this game in Carolina

964
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:06,439
Speaker 3: for forty five cents for a ticket to a football game.

965
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 3: I mean, I guess they're looking at like not even

966
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:12,240
Speaker 3: cracking ten thousand. I don't know, but forty five cents

967
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 3: for a ticket to a football that's embarrassing. I guess

968
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 3: that's kind of a signed. Bryce Young's not great and

969
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 3: in reality, like Washington Rams could be interesting. But even

970
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 3: the one PM games two of them stink, and then

971
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 3: it's Dallas Buffalo and then the night game is good.

972
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 3: So NFL doing a decent job. I guess highlighting the

973
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,239
Speaker 3: few good games on the schedule. And you know we

974
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 3: do get a pretty good game Monday, Philadelphia Seattle.

975
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 2: I just what it's bad.

976
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 3: Teams meeting is just it's not exciting. Anyways, that is

977
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:43,760
Speaker 3: the week in the book. So hope you guys enjoyed

978
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:48,320
Speaker 3: the pod. Remember subscribe, rate and review back on Monday.

979
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 2: Talk to you then,