WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Abby Joseph Cohen

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea and

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<v Speaker 1>arguably the single busiest day of the year, the FED meeting. Ernie,

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<v Speaker 1>It's Microsoft Meta, it's Facebook out later this afternoon. All

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<v Speaker 1>that's going on with mister Trump active today, tweeting out

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<v Speaker 1>including a twenty five percent plus an overlay tariff on

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<v Speaker 1>top of that to India. I'm not sure if that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to go through with that was the tweet, if

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<v Speaker 1>you will, from Truth Social. Maybe it's called a truth

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<v Speaker 1>for the truth from Truth Social. As a president was

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<v Speaker 1>very active this morning. We just tried to have good

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<v Speaker 1>conversation on economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Abby Joseph

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<v Speaker 1>Cohen with US now teaching at Columbia Business School. Abby

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<v Speaker 1>Joseph Cohen, of course, with Golden Sachs. My first question

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<v Speaker 1>a good topic of hers productivity, Abby Joseph Cohen, on

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<v Speaker 1>the efficiency of America.

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<v Speaker 2>Long term economic growth and long term wealth creation. And

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<v Speaker 2>I'm talking about national wealth, personal wealth rather than stock

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<v Speaker 2>market erratic wealth is very much related to productivity. And

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<v Speaker 2>I do think that some decisions that have been made

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<v Speaker 2>and continue to be made right now will be damaging

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<v Speaker 2>the nation's long term productivity growth. I'll give you a

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<v Speaker 2>few examples. First of all, even during prior administrations, we

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<v Speaker 2>were seeing that our national investment in science and technology

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<v Speaker 2>as a percentage of GDP had gone down, and it

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<v Speaker 2>has gone down even further during the last few months.

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<v Speaker 2>Cancelation just yesterday for example, or excuse me, postponement rather

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<v Speaker 2>of all NIH grants announced yesterday is an indication of

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<v Speaker 2>loss of productivity future productivity in the bio BioResearch area.

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<v Speaker 2>We've also seen enormous cutbacks in grants from the National

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<v Speaker 2>Science Foundation, NASA and so on. And these are the

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<v Speaker 2>things that really gave us a leg up in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of our technology, especially with regard to things like computer

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<v Speaker 2>science and a number of other categories that are going

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<v Speaker 2>to be so critical for the future.

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<v Speaker 1>Abby Joseph Cohen. And then of course to the stock market.

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<v Speaker 1>Everyone wants to know her belief in the bullmarket. I

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<v Speaker 1>believe she's looking forward rather than backward here, Abby Joseph

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<v Speaker 1>Cohen on this twenty twenty five bullmarket.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a legitimate bullmarket. The question is how much

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<v Speaker 2>further can it go? The concentration that we've seen in

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<v Speaker 2>a small number of extremely well performing shares and of course,

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<v Speaker 2>the valuation valuations are just not all that appealing. If

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<v Speaker 2>we look at the S and P five hundred overall,

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<v Speaker 2>it is sort of a record deciles visa pe price

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<v Speaker 2>to sales, price to book, and so on. Does it

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<v Speaker 2>mean that there aren't some value opportunities, But I think

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<v Speaker 2>that investors really need to be very careful. And one

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<v Speaker 2>of the things that I always go back to is

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<v Speaker 2>that when the market is undervalued, when the market is

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<v Speaker 2>too cheap and there are disappointments perhaps on economics or geopolitics,

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<v Speaker 2>the market has shock absorbers. But when things are already

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<v Speaker 2>priced for perfection, then you really need to be careful

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<v Speaker 2>because that's when the volatility picks up. And we have seen,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, that when there are those periods in which

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<v Speaker 2>it's not clear what economic policy will be or what's

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<v Speaker 2>happening in the rest of the world, we do see

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<v Speaker 2>that volatility picking up, and volatility works in both directs,

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<v Speaker 2>not just up but also.

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<v Speaker 1>Dan Ammy, Joseph Cohen, Columbia University, our podcasts nationwide, indeed worldwide,

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple, on Spotify, many other platforms as well, and

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube podcasts. This is the single best idea