1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 2: This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg instant reaction 3 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 2: and analysis from our three thousand journalists and analysts around 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 2: the world. 5 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: US Attorney for Washington DC, Jeanine Piro, vowed to continue 6 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: her investigation at Federal Reserve here j Powell after a 7 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: judge earlier rejected subpoena's issue to the Central Bank, threatening 8 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 1: to delay the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Powell's successor. 9 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 1: She spoke from her office in DC. 10 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 3: Jerome Powell today is now bathed in immunity, preventing my 11 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 3: office from investigating the Federal Reserve. This is wrong and 12 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 3: it is without legal authority. 13 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 2: That's US Attorney for Washington, d C, Jeanine Piro. We're 14 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 2: joined by June Grosso, Bloomberg Legal analyst and host of 15 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Law weeknights at six and ten on Bloomberg Radio. 16 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 2: Michael McKee is with us too. He's Bloomberg TV and 17 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 2: Radio International Economics and Policy correspondent. June, you brought a 18 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 2: print out. This is the full opinion. What have you found? 19 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:13,960 Speaker 4: Let me first read you if I made the first 20 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 4: few lines, Jerome too late Powell has done it again. 21 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 4: It's too late, and actually he's too angry, stupid, and 22 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 4: too political to have the job of fed share. He's 23 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 4: costing our country trillions of dollars. It sounds like a 24 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 4: true social post the way the judge started with a 25 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 4: page and a half of social posts by President Trump. 26 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: So all legal rulings are like that, right y. 27 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 4: I've never seen one like this because usually they didn't 28 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 4: even give it a preface. He just went right into it. 29 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,119 Speaker 4: And you know, the thing is that he said, there's 30 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 4: a there's no evidence that Powell committed any crimes. They 31 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,639 Speaker 4: presented no evidence. On the other side, there's a mountain 32 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 4: of evidence that this is about retribution against Powell by Trump, 33 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 4: and that's why Judge Bosberg put that so political. 34 00:01:54,760 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: Can we read retribution as political or not? 35 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 4: Yes, yes, I definitely think so. When you heard Janine 36 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 4: Piro's talk about how there's no evidence and there's no 37 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 4: this is against the rules and all that stuff, well, 38 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 4: you know, I'll just read from Rule seventeen of the 39 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 4: Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, which prohibits subpoenas that are 40 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 4: unreasonable or oppressive. So the judge found that this was 41 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 4: unreasonable and probably oppressive. So you know, this is a 42 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,679 Speaker 4: judge that's well known. He's the chief judge of the 43 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 4: d C Circuit. 44 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 5: Huge Vosberg you're talking about. 45 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 4: He's very well respected. But you also might know he 46 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 4: came into prominence because he's the judge who told the 47 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 4: Trump administration to turn the planes around when they were 48 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 4: flying Venezuelans to El Salvador. 49 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 1: Okay, well, we heard from our Eliot Stein of Bloomberg Intelligence, right, 50 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: who said that this is what a judge who's been 51 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 1: kind of a thorn in the side of the Trump administration. 52 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 4: They went after him for ethics violations and failed. So 53 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 4: it was about a a conference, a private statement that 54 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 4: he made at a conference of judges, and they actually 55 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 4: tried to pursue ethics complaint against him, and that was dismissed. 56 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 2: So he was He was appointed in twenty eleven by 57 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,399 Speaker 2: President Obama, but earlier he was appointed to the Superior 58 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 2: Court of DC by President George W. 59 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 5: Bush. So he's had support from and you know, we're. 60 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 2: Talking about this because these days there's a lot of 61 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 2: He was called an activist judge by Jeanine Pierro. 62 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 4: Not only that by Pam bondy months and months ago. 63 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 4: I have I can you know, find the quotes of 64 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 4: her calling him and actually calling out Judge Boseburg and 65 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 4: a few other judges as activist judges. So I mean, 66 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 4: that's a term that is used a lot by people 67 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 4: in this administration, and you know, you really can't put 68 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 4: any credit on that because they call died in the 69 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 4: wool Republican judges appointed by Ronald Reagan activists. 70 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 1: Michael, will you come in. You're going to stick around 71 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: a little bit later and also talk with Ur Tim 72 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: O'Brien about all of this. But I mean, is J 73 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: Powell sitting there and being like yeahoo, or it's not 74 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: over yet. So he's you know, because remember he made 75 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: that video after these subpoenas and was was unheard of 76 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: to see if FED chair come out and do something 77 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: like that. 78 00:03:56,000 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 6: Well, he's not rejoicing. I'm sure he's happy with the ruling. 79 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 6: And the FED had always taken the position there was 80 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 6: no crime here, and they pointed to the Senators who 81 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 6: all said there was no crime here, which Judge Bosberg 82 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 6: notes in his decision, and the administration has just continued 83 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 6: to pursue this. So the FED has had to sit back. 84 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 6: This was sort of the fed's longer shot strategy. Yeah, 85 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 6: trying to get the subpoenis quashed. It's sort of the 86 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 6: first line of defense, and they won on that. So 87 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 6: now they don't even have to go farther unless she 88 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 6: wins her appeal. But Paul's going to have to wait 89 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 6: and see what happens with the appeal and if then 90 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 6: she finds some other way to try to indict him 91 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:48,159 Speaker 6: for something, because they're trying to get him. 92 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:49,239 Speaker 5: It's very interesting. 93 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 6: In Judge Bosberg's opinion, he paraphrases a man for all seasons. 94 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 6: When he compared, he lays out all these tweets that 95 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 6: the president put out, and he said, this basically comes 96 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 6: down to will no one rid me of this meddlesome priest? 97 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 6: And Janine Piro is the person who's trying to do that. 98 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 1: So go back June then to the legal case. What's next? 99 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 1: What does she what does she have to do to 100 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 1: get these appeals? 101 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 4: First of all, she said that this gives him blanket immunity. 102 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 4: That's not the case. First of all, she's going to appeal, 103 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 4: And also they're asking for a reconsideration because she said 104 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 4: the judge had some dates wrong. But does that matter legally, Well, 105 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 4: it may not matter legally based on you know, we 106 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 4: have to look at what the context of it. But 107 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 4: you know, will he reconsider, Maybe he'll reconsider, but I 108 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 4: doubt that he's going to come out with a different opinion. 109 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 4: So that's that's next. Is the is the appeal. And 110 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 4: she can also she can also find, as Mike said, 111 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 4: other information to move her case forward. And the other 112 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 4: thing is she and particularly the DC Attorney's Office has 113 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,280 Speaker 4: had a lot of trouble getting grand juries to indict 114 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 4: people in cases and having grand juries reject cases that 115 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 4: are you know, overcharged. This case, I have to say, 116 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 4: getting some a criminal case based on mistaken and based 117 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 4: on statements that are mistaken, that is a very tough 118 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 4: case to make. I mean, perjury cases are just really cost. 119 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 5: Does he cost overruns? Okay? 120 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:23,919 Speaker 6: So what was about his testimony to the Senate Banking 121 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 6: Committee when he was asked about the cost overruns? And 122 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 6: what he said was sort of evasive because he apparently 123 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 6: he didn't have all the information right in front of him. 124 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 6: But there was no lie in it. And Tim Scott, 125 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 6: the chairman of the Banking Committee, said there was he 126 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 6: didn't lie to us. The rest of the Bank Committee said 127 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 6: he didn't lie to us. But that's what Piro is 128 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 6: trying to build a case. 129 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: Which is what she highlighted also in the press conference today, 130 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 1: right in terms of the cost. 131 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 6: Well, yeah, it all revolves around the cost. But he 132 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 6: didn't She hasn't tried to charge him with anything in 133 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 6: relation to the cost. It's a fishing expedition. If they 134 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 6: got some paperwork from the Fed, if the subpoenas had 135 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 6: gone forward, that showed he did something wrong, but that's 136 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 6: fishing expeditions. 137 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 4: Well, I was going to say that if you remember 138 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 4: the Barry Bombs case years and years and years ago, 139 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 4: where they were trying to get there. Yes, they were 140 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 4: trying to get him a perjury based on statements he 141 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 4: made to a grandeur and if you read it, he 142 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 4: just went around and around. He didn't lie. Specifically, seven 143 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 4: years of pre trial and things like that, he finally 144 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 4: got convicted and then it was it was overturned on appeal. 145 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 4: I mean, these are not easy cases to make, and 146 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 4: by the time it goes through, Jeanne Pirol will probably 147 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 4: be out of the DC. 148 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 6: Evan Larsh has to wait seven years well, we got it. 149 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 2: Our conversation is going to do you have work to do. 150 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 5: We have to say goodbye to you. 151 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 2: June Grosso Bloomberg legs to Bloomberg Law. We ignites at 152 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 2: six and ten on Bloomberg Radio. Mike McKee, you're not 153 00:07:59,120 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 2: so lucky. 154 00:07:59,520 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 5: You're sticking. 155 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: And we're going to bring our Tim O'Brien into the 156 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: studio as well and also talk with him about all 157 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: of this. But Mike, one of the things. 158 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 5: Can we go? 159 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: Can we go? 160 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 5: We're gonna go, Mike. 161 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 1: One of the things I think about is what if 162 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 1: there is kind of the back and forth still going 163 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: and Kevin worsh his nomination isn't confirmed. What happens? Does 164 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: j Powell stay in the job? Like, how does this? 165 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 6: Well, Powell can stay as a governor until January of 166 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 6: twenty twenty eight, because that's when his governor's third devans. 167 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 6: He would not be chairman of the Board of Governors 168 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 6: anymore after May fifteenth. But the Open Market Committee that 169 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 6: makes the interest rate decisions elects its own chair every year. 170 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 6: This year the Open Market Committee elected him to be 171 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,560 Speaker 6: chair for the entire year. The last time they elected 172 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 6: somebody in this situation they said until his successor is confirmed, 173 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,719 Speaker 6: so he could they don't have to do anything. He 174 00:08:55,800 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 6: just stays as chair until unless he either resigns or 175 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 6: Warsh comes in and they decided to replace out. 176 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:04,679 Speaker 2: This is something we're going to talk about with Tim 177 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 2: O'Brien too and in just a minute. But Mike, it 178 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,439 Speaker 2: seems like this could have been such an easy opportunity 179 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,600 Speaker 2: to fast track Kevin Walsh to becoming the next fed 180 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 2: share hajanine Piro accepted the decision from this judge right 181 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 2: and said, Okay, he's the judge spoke, We're done, We're 182 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 2: we're that's it, and we're not going to appeal this. 183 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 2: But now Tom Tillis says, as long as this process continues, 184 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 2: he will not allow Kevin worsh to move from committee 185 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 2: to get confirmed. 186 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 6: Well, and if this is going to continue through the 187 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,960 Speaker 6: appeals process, it's going to continue for months because that's 188 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 6: the way the legal system works. 189 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 5: So Warsh is not going to be confirmed anytime soon. 190 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 6: I suppose it makes Steven Myron happy because he stays 191 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 6: in the seat. But you have to shake your head. 192 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,679 Speaker 6: You have to wonder and say what were they thinking? 193 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 6: But we're always saying that these days. 194 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, let's bring in Tim O'Brien. He's Bloomberg Opinion at 195 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 2: Senior executive editor. He's back here in our studio. 196 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 5: Tim. 197 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 2: We wanted you on because you have a store a 198 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 2: column earlier that we spoke about about the president and 199 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 2: plans and planning for this, and I think this is 200 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 2: kind of a perfect opportunity to talk about what was 201 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 2: the plan here? Is there a plan? Is there a 202 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 2: plan here? And I think if we know what my 203 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 2: answer is going to be, Yeah, I know what your 204 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 2: answer is going to be. But this seems to be, 205 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: like we were saying, not necessarily prudent to get the 206 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 2: next FED chair in position for President Trump. 207 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 7: Yeah. Again, you know, planning matters. It matters when you 208 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 7: plan a party, It matters when you plan a home renovation. 209 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 7: It matters when you plan how to run a business, 210 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 7: and it certainly matters when you plan how to run 211 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 7: the federal government in its you know, myriad facets and 212 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 7: all the important things it does. So, of course, the 213 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 7: orchestration of how you get a FED nominee on track, 214 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 7: how you get a Fed UHH nominee approved, and how 215 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 7: you then get them seated really matters, and a lot 216 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,679 Speaker 7: of this the you know, the thing that's going on 217 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 7: with Lisa Cook, it is theatrics is the issue being 218 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 7: looked into. Other members of the Trump administration have wrestled 219 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 7: with this, including the Treasury Secretary, who wasn't singled out 220 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 7: for an investigation. And it would be just wise for 221 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 7: them to let go of it and smooth the waters 222 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 7: and get worsh right in there, as Michael was saying. 223 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 7: And the fact that they're not suggests a number of 224 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 7: things that they actually don't have a blueprint for how 225 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 7: to go about this. They're not communicating well with each other. 226 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 7: It's not clear to me how well the President's team 227 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 7: communicated with Piro before she got in front of a 228 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,600 Speaker 7: microphone to talk about this. How much of it's informed 229 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:45,079 Speaker 7: by peak rather than strategy, et cetera, et cetera. And 230 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 7: that is a common feature of how the Trump administration rolls. 231 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: I want to ask you, though, Tim, like part of 232 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: us sometimes wonders, is this chaotic approach and you know 233 00:11:56,760 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 1: President Trump's ability or you know, goal of putting so 234 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: much out there to kind of confuse us is a plan. Yeah, 235 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: it is a strategy. What you know that flood the 236 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: zone kind of I did. How much of that do should? 237 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: We think that this is part of what he wants 238 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,600 Speaker 1: to do. I think we're not talking about some We're. 239 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 2: Not talking about oil prices or the Epstein file or Epstein. 240 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 1: File, like we talk about this all the time. There 241 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,440 Speaker 1: are things we're not talking about as a result. 242 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 7: Well, so I think that this is an attempt to 243 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:28,200 Speaker 7: impose a rational structure on what's an inherently irrational process, 244 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 7: which is that Trump is a chaotic force of nature. 245 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 7: This is who he's been forever. He hasn't really had 246 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,680 Speaker 7: to suffer the consequences of chaos in his own life. 247 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,439 Speaker 7: For his own career, He's come very close a few times. 248 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 7: He flirted with personal bankruptcy in the early nineteen nineties. 249 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 7: He's been through a number of marriages. He was in 250 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 7: the White House, that out of the White House, now 251 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:54,319 Speaker 7: he's back in again. So you know, this is present. 252 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 7: But I think I think it's important to discern strategy 253 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 7: from chaos, and certain strategy from goals. You know, I 254 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 7: think Trump clearly has goals. It's usually self aggrandizement or 255 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 7: self preservation. Almost everything that he aspires to is in 256 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 7: one of those silos. But that's not having a strategy. 257 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 7: Strategies require patients. You have to think long term. You 258 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,320 Speaker 7: have to build a team around you that can help 259 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 7: you execute your vision. That's strategy. The rest, all the 260 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:25,679 Speaker 7: rest of it is throwing himut up against a wall 261 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 7: to see what sticks. 262 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 1: Who does have strategy is Jay Powell? And I keep 263 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 1: thinking Mike about next week and the FED meeting and 264 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: will know where. I'm sure there will be posts on 265 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:36,719 Speaker 1: social media that we will get from, whether it's the 266 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: White House or the administration or what have you. But 267 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: I just think about where Jay Powell is going to 268 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: be on Wednesday, no matter what is kind of swirling 269 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: around him. And when it comes to this specifically, we 270 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: know he'll be asked, Yeah, the. 271 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 6: FED has to make a decision, and Powell, I'm sure, 272 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 6: when asked about it, will say something along the lines of, well, 273 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 6: we agree with the court and that's all I'm going 274 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 6: to say because it's under appeal and I'm not going. 275 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 5: To talk about it anymore. 276 00:13:58,320 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 6: And then we're going to ask him, are you going 277 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 6: to around as governor when your term. 278 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 5: Is too What will he say? 279 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 6: And he will say, I haven't thought about that. I'm 280 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 6: not giving that any thought. Right now, I'm just focused 281 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 6: on the job in front of me, which will in 282 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 6: a way get easier because of the president. Because the 283 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 6: war has pushed up oil prices and is threatening the economy, 284 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 6: the FED is now going to be sitting back and 285 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 6: doing nothing. Even if Kevin Warsh were confirmed immediately, he 286 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 6: wouldn't be cutting rates under these circumstances. 287 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 5: With Stephen Myron, no, I don't think so, okay. 288 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 6: I mean we talked to Stephen the week of the 289 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 6: war started, and he said, I just don't know enough 290 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 6: right now. 291 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 5: So I'm still in my position. 292 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 6: But if you thought that inflation was going to rise significantly, 293 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 6: then cutting rates would not be the thing you'd want 294 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 6: to do. Myron's argument would be, well, if the economy 295 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,239 Speaker 6: is going to slow, we're going to get higher unemployment, 296 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 6: then that is something you might cut rates for. 297 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 5: But for right now, we're not seeing that. 298 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: Tim, where is the president's advice? Like, I'm just thinking 299 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: in a normal White House, they would be like midterms affordability, Like. 300 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 5: Just as Mike. 301 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 7: As Mike was talking, I was thinking stagflation. Stagflation, yea, 302 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 7: all of the you know, all the all the bells 303 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 7: are chiming towards that. You know, I think in Trump's 304 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 7: first White House, he had advisors around him who talked back, 305 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 7: whether it was you know, General Madis on the one 306 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 7: hand or Rex Tillerson on the other. And I don't 307 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 7: think those sort of people exist in this administration because 308 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 7: I think the lesson that the President took away from 309 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 7: his first administration was people who give you independent advice 310 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 7: get in your way, and they contradict how you see 311 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 7: the world. And he doesn't like either one of those things. 312 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 7: So what you have now is essentially an apparatus around him 313 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 7: that's enabling. But anyone who talks to people in the 314 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 7: White House or reports on it describes it as essentially 315 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 7: a tornado of of different different goals and poor communication. 316 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 2: What did you tim were your takeaway of the press 317 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 2: conference we saw with the US Attorney Jeanine Piro. It 318 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 2: was combative, it was energetic, she was she I think 319 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 2: she was very I'm just confused about like who that 320 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 2: was for, And well, you know what, it reminds you 321 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 2: of the emissary of the President. 322 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 7: It reminded me of the Attorney General's recent congressional testimony, 323 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 7: where it was similar. It was I am not going 324 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 7: to concede your point. I'm not really going to answer 325 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 7: your question. I'm here because Donald Trump is the best 326 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 7: president in the history of the world, and our goal 327 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 7: is to achieve X, and therefore we will do it. 328 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 7: And I tend to think I think today the War 329 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 7: Secretary Pete Hegsath gave a press conference to debrief the 330 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 7: American public on where we are, and it was very performative. 331 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 7: And again, I think all of these people are cognizant 332 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 7: of that when they're on TV, there's an audience of 333 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 7: one in the Oval office that they have to think 334 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 7: about before everyone else. 335 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 6: There's something interesting about this too, because at the Defense Department, 336 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 6: remember they essentially forced all the regular mainstream press out, 337 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 6: so yeah, all basically affiliated with right wing media outlets. 338 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 6: But at the Justice Department today there was a lot 339 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 6: of antagonism that she was responding to. She got asked, 340 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 6: how does this fit in with all of the other 341 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,880 Speaker 6: cases that you have failed to get grand juries to indict, 342 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 6: and that made her very angry at the end. 343 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:30,920 Speaker 1: You know, one of the things I think about, too, 344 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: is just I just blanked. 345 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 2: Actually, well, I wanted I wanted to ask about fed independence, 346 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 2: and I'm wondering if a decision like this from from 347 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:46,120 Speaker 2: a judge makes you think, okay the FED and maybe 348 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,679 Speaker 2: makes investors think FED independence is strong. 349 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 6: It's kind of a mixed picture. Yes, the markets field 350 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 6: basically that FED independence is strong. Now one of the 351 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 6: issues is how strong is their credibility because what they 352 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 6: the problem they had with the big inflation scare and 353 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,719 Speaker 6: things like that. And everybody doesn't know exactly how this 354 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 6: plays out with the President and the FED. But for 355 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 6: right now, the markets believe in the FED, and I 356 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 6: don't think it's going to take a lot to change that. 357 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 6: And the more this goes on, the more the President 358 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 6: turns other members of the FED against him, and people 359 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 6: stick up for the institution, and whether they love j 360 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 6: Pol or hate j Pol, the FED itself is more important. 361 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 1: That's what I actually wanted to go to. So thank 362 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 1: you for like trading my brain the synapses. But I 363 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,920 Speaker 1: mean I think about tim too, that we talk about 364 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: a Trump put right, that the president does watch the markets, 365 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: and really this week, I think we've seen things where 366 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: he's come out to almost massage the energy trade. So 367 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 1: should we assume whether it's the FED? You know, nervousness 368 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:52,760 Speaker 1: in the markets that he will come back to that. 369 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 7: Well, I think, you know, he can't just massage the 370 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 7: energy trade forever. You know, oil, there's a point prices 371 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,360 Speaker 7: have been on a yo yo and at some point, 372 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 7: because of the nature of the industry, everything will shut 373 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 7: down for a period of time and it will take 374 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 7: a while to revive it, and then we'll be economic 375 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 7: consequences for that. And I think he's hoping that within 376 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,879 Speaker 7: these little moments of breathing room, maybe the Iranians come 377 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 7: to the table or something else. I don't know exactly 378 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:22,600 Speaker 7: what he's thinking. 379 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 1: But nobody does and nobody does. 380 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 7: But the interesting thing here now, if you compare it 381 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 7: to like Liberation Day in tariffs, is the whole dance 382 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,359 Speaker 7: around was he going to impost tariffs or not played 383 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 7: out over several months because he had the time to 384 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 7: do that. He does not have the time in this 385 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:42,160 Speaker 7: situation to let this play out that long at all. 386 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 7: And he is now dealing with fanatics in run who 387 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 7: are going to dig in and wage a long war, 388 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 7: it appears, and he can be fanatical himself. And if 389 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 7: both sides on this end up just digging in. 390 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 8: We're gonna have a full blown energy crisis, which is 391 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,679 Speaker 8: why we also have you know, market watchers saying, you know, 392 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 8: we've got to know kind of the duration the impact, 393 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 8: and that will determine so much going forward. 394 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 4: M m m