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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Too many people out there. I

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Speaker 1: think that Janet yellow and secretly knows exactly what she's

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Speaker 1: going to do about interest rates, and she just isn't

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Speaker 1: telling us. I think there's just a broad appreciation across

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Speaker 1: the central banking community that global growth momentumus line. Everything

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Speaker 1: I learned as a a has gone out the window

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Speaker 1: here at the moment with it. You're a rate idea.

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Speaker 1: But I don't want to get to work up here.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance,

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Speaker 1: and investment. On Bloomberg Radio, kid running Everyone, Michael mckayn

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Speaker 1: and Tom Keane from New York come Monday, Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Mr McKee um off, I've been so dismayed over my bracket.

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Speaker 1: I'm drugged over my n C double A Brackett McKey decided.

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Speaker 1: You said I'm not coming in because your bracket was

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Speaker 1: so bad, so very red hoole to me. Did you

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Speaker 1: pick Villanova? I did not. I don't think anybody breathing

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Speaker 1: except Chris Whalen Villanova, one of the guys in my

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Speaker 1: office is a Syracuse alum, and I know I'm just

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Speaker 1: not going to hear the end of this, well not yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean it's just been it's been that does that

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Speaker 1: Neil Sharing's swing shaking and said, going these ugly Americans,

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Speaker 1: it's just a disgrace and Bloomberg surveillance. This warning brought

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Speaker 1: to by Cone or Resnik as always Cone Resnick Accounting

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Speaker 1: tax advisory. As economic policy changes, so did business decisions

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Speaker 1: speak to the experts at Cone Resnic for the forward

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Speaker 1: thinking advice you need find out more at Cone residc

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Speaker 1: dot com, O h n R e z n I

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Speaker 1: c K Cone Resnick dot com. Lots of talk about

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Speaker 1: we switch right now to one of the tough calls,

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Speaker 1: and I say this respect for excuse me, on both

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Speaker 1: sides of the debate, Neil Sharing is with capital economics,

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Speaker 1: just a terrific United Kingdom powerhouse working with Mark Williams

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Speaker 1: on emerging markets. Just simply here. As the debate goes

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Speaker 1: back and forth US centric, Developed World centric, or is

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Speaker 1: it time to pay a lot more attention to E M.

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Speaker 1: I think we have to pay more attention to me.

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Speaker 1: And I would say that as the chief em economist

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Speaker 1: of Force. But bear in mind that this is now

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Speaker 1: more than half of the global economy. Um, it's got

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Speaker 1: to the stage now where we can't ignore what's happening

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Speaker 1: in It's not just China. The China is obviously the

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Speaker 1: big one. That Brazil, Russia, India, that's about a quarter

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Speaker 1: of the global economy. That's great. Very also went in

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Speaker 1: the GRAM this weekend over the time Warners Center. You

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Speaker 1: have to four scoop cones. It costs like eighteen dollars, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean the way they're putting the concert and everything

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Speaker 1: from around the world. If you're going to the van,

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Speaker 1: if you go on to the flavors of gram ice

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Speaker 1: cream or gelado whatever it is, which is a country

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Speaker 1: that's best right now? Well, this is part of the

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Speaker 1: problem that it's half of the global economy and it's

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Speaker 1: all slowing. It's all pretty weak at the moment. And

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Speaker 1: obviously there's lots of concerned about China. But Brazil is

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Speaker 1: now and its deepest recessions. It's the since they started

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Speaker 1: collecting data at the turn of last century. So it's

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Speaker 1: all pretty weak my senses. Though this year things will

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Speaker 1: start to turn around, and I think that turnaround will

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Speaker 1: be led by China. Interesting, So let's talk a little

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Speaker 1: it about China and the impact it's had. Em economies

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Speaker 1: have a tendency to be very commodity rich. That's a

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Speaker 1: big part of what they do. Uh. That clearly makes

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Speaker 1: the strengthening dollar an issue. But if we look at

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Speaker 1: China for the past decade, there was a giant boom

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Speaker 1: that drove a lot of commodity prices higher, That in

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Speaker 1: turn drove a lot of emerging market economies higher. And

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Speaker 1: then China started thraveling back two years ago. There their

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Speaker 1: cement imports, their copper imports, all of their their non

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Speaker 1: precious mental imports slowed and coincidentally, the entire e M

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Speaker 1: world stumbled. How important is China to the rest of

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Speaker 1: the emerging market world. It's absolutely critical. It's critical for

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Speaker 1: two reasons. One is, as you say, commodity producers, so

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Speaker 1: that matters for Latin America, that matters for Africa, um,

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Speaker 1: but also it matters for Asia too. So China is

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Speaker 1: not just the commodity power house driving commodity prices. It's

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Speaker 1: a manufact trim power house, and it's been putting in

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Speaker 1: manufacturers all through its supply chains in the Southeast Asia

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Speaker 1: and East Asia. So really, if we're going to start

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Speaker 1: to assess what we think is gonna happen in the

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Speaker 1: emerging world. That's critical for the global economy. We need

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Speaker 1: to start and the story starts and ends in what

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Speaker 1: what happens in China. So it's no longer a matter

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Speaker 1: of China being um further back from the train, from

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Speaker 1: the locomotive. China pretty much is the That's a big change,

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Speaker 1: isn't it. It's a huge change, and and and it's

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Speaker 1: not gonna and that's something that's here to stay, I

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Speaker 1: think for the for the next few years at least.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I look at emerging markets and I get hydrocards,

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Speaker 1: and maybe there's an interesting idea of Indonesia which is

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Speaker 1: sort of OPEC non OPEC, and every nation has a story.

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Speaker 1: There's gotta be what you and capital economics proceeds is

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Speaker 1: the next four year, six year, eight year winner of

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Speaker 1: capitalism and global enterprise in e M. Do you have

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Speaker 1: you identified that culture society? I think I think one

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Speaker 1: of the issues is that if you look back over

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Speaker 1: the past decade, you have four the biggest e M

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Speaker 1: s China, India, Brazil, Russia all lifted. We don't like

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Speaker 1: this is because you don't root from Manchester, United You

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Speaker 1: actually become a dirty word. Bricks has I don't know

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Speaker 1: why it's not as brush as Manchester United, but we

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Speaker 1: won't get into But there are the bricks, so the

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Speaker 1: but I mean that there's not much that really unites

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Speaker 1: the bricks apart from their size that they're They're huge,

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Speaker 1: not just in terms of their gend people, in terms

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Speaker 1: of the population. Now my senses that's going to happen

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Speaker 1: over the next ten years is the winners are going

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Speaker 1: to be much smaller economies, um certainly smaller by the

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Speaker 1: sands of the bricks. I would look at countries like Mexico,

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Speaker 1: like Vietnam, like some of the smaller manufacturing based economies.

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Speaker 1: Now they're not going to transform the global economy in

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Speaker 1: the way that China and India and Brazil have, but

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Speaker 1: they could bring certainly good returns for investors. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit about home country bias, which is the

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Speaker 1: phenomena of people regardless of where they live Canada, US, England, France,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter to be wildly overexposed to their own

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Speaker 1: country's stock market, mostly because they're familiar with the brands,

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Speaker 1: the names, the CEOs, and under exposed to outside markets.

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Speaker 1: Whether they're developed or emerging. How does this playing into

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Speaker 1: what's the appropriate amount of emerging markets for an average

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Speaker 1: person's portfolio. Well, the first thing to say is that

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Speaker 1: if you have if you've based in the US and

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Speaker 1: you've had that home country bias for the past couple

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Speaker 1: of years, that you've not done too badly, certainly a

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Speaker 1: lot better than if you've piled into amersure market. But

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Speaker 1: go back a few years before that and you it's cyclical.

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Speaker 1: Some years you're underperforming, if you're overly waited to the

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Speaker 1: U S, and other years you're Outperformance. Tended to happen

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Speaker 1: is when the US markets done well, e M s

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Speaker 1: if I performed, and in world and in appearance where

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Speaker 1: the global markets have had a week a year e

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Speaker 1: ms of are performed. Now that's changed in the past

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Speaker 1: couple of years, where irrespective of what's happened in global markets,

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Speaker 1: ems have just been clubbed across the board. And I

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Speaker 1: think part of the reason is that plain e MS

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Speaker 1: has become very difficult. Is you're on central bank or

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Speaker 1: to your emerging markets I think the People's Bank of

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Speaker 1: China central bank to emerging markets at this stage, really

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Speaker 1: that's first name, because what happens is if China stimulates

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Speaker 1: its economy and the Chinese economy picks up, that's going

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Speaker 1: to stabilize global commodity prices, and that's critical for Latin America,

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Speaker 1: for Russia, for parts of the Middle East. UM So, really,

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Speaker 1: at this stage, it's not about the FEED. I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's about the People's Bank in Beijing. The FED

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Speaker 1: matters for countries that have borrowed lots of mounds lots

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Speaker 1: of dollars in Turkey, for example, but you know, small

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Speaker 1: beer in the big, big scheme of things, I would

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Speaker 1: think the strength of the U S stylar would be

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Speaker 1: really critical to UH to e M countries that are

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Speaker 1: exporters of commodities. It is, but bear in mind a

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Speaker 1: lot of the downside from a strong dollar is for

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Speaker 1: countries that have borrowed in dollars and they don't really

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Speaker 1: exist to a large extent in the measure markets anymore.

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Speaker 1: Most of the debt, and there is a debt problem,

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Speaker 1: but it's mostly in local currency. I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you go to countries like Mexico, just come back

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Speaker 1: from Mexico and holiday really cheap. I'm surprised that people

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Speaker 1: aren't going to Mexico and holiday because the pacer has

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Speaker 1: just collapsed, so you can eat out. And it's a

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Speaker 1: fraction of the speaks to global uncertainties of whether it's

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Speaker 1: Brussels or Lawre I mean, or international relations comes across US.

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Speaker 1: I mean, whether I would say to Americans is there's

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Speaker 1: something about sitting in Dubai and realizing everybody goes to

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Speaker 1: Lebanon for a vacation. Most Americans would think that's just insane.

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Speaker 1: But are we at a point where terrorism and global

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Speaker 1: insecurities and a broad sense diminish economies. I don't think

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Speaker 1: we're at that stage yet. Across the board. I mean,

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Speaker 1: clearly there are pockets of the world where that matters,

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Speaker 1: in particularly matters for tourism. UM. Obviously most the biggest

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Speaker 1: che of most of the the Latin America and the Caribbean

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Speaker 1: at the stage is Zeka and the effect that that

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Speaker 1: might be having. UM not not related to terrorism, of course,

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Speaker 1: but that's that's the big issue at this stage. There's

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Speaker 1: not much evidence that's weighing on the tourist industry. You know,

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Speaker 1: sharing thank you so much, greatly appreciated. With Capital Economics

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Speaker 1: just brilliant with a nice update there on emerging markets, Remember, Barry,

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Speaker 1: when it's easy, some sales guy stood up and said,

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Speaker 1: you have to have nine or ten of your portfolio

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Speaker 1: in emerging markets, and boys that changed. You know, we

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Speaker 1: say around the office, if something in your portfolio isn't

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Speaker 1: in trouble, then you're not doing it right. The idea

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Speaker 1: of having both developed and emerging markets and US markets

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Speaker 1: all in sync at the same time just doesn't happen.

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Speaker 1: Something is always staying the joint up, and that's the

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Speaker 1: nature of diversification. Do you sense, Barry, a distinction between

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Speaker 1: large clap emerging market Remember when the only stock you

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Speaker 1: bot in Mexico was Telnic It's it's changed because so

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Speaker 1: many of these companies have themselves both outside of the

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Speaker 1: United States become global in nature. So there are a

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Speaker 1: lot more I don't want to say megacap, but certainly

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Speaker 1: mid to large cap companies that used to be below

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Speaker 1: the red panel, the panel that Davos. That was the

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Speaker 1: single message off the panel was the U S mindset

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Speaker 1: on one oligopoly within the contry. Yeah, that's that was

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Speaker 1: the number one message. It's diversification and globalization is now everywhere.

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Speaker 1: This is great Neil shirting Catholic economics. Thank you, Barry.

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Speaker 1: Redholds will continue. Are you here like today or the

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Speaker 1: whole week? You got me the whole week, the whole week.

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Speaker 1: Michael barr hold my hand, please, very redholds the entire

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Speaker 1: week and right now he's stopped holding my hand with

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Speaker 1: the news. Here's Michael barr Um and Verry. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much. North Carolina's new law of blocking shar went

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Speaker 1: in other cities from passing antidiscrimination rules covering gay and

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Speaker 1: transgender people is not going to happen without a fight.

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Speaker 1: The American Civil Liberties Union and other groups have scheduled

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Speaker 1: the news conference and rally today as he announced a

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Speaker 1: federal court challenge. The Belgian health Ministry wished courage to

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Speaker 1: all families today after announcing that four people injured in

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Speaker 1: last week's Brussels attacks have now died. That brings the

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Speaker 1: death toll to thirty five, including four Americans. Meanwhile, Brussels

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Speaker 1: Airport is testing temporary infrastructure to see if it's in

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Speaker 1: good enough shape to reopen. Global News twenty four hours

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Speaker 1: a day, powered by our twenty four hundred journalists and

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Speaker 1: more than one hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael barr Barry Tom Michael, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: The German two year yield is a proxy for post

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Speaker 1: drag migrating lower negative zero point four eight three. It's

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Speaker 1: something worth watching to see how that goes. So the week,

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