WEBVTT - Secretary of State Antony Blinken Talks Conflict with Iran 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:08.719 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Sir Secretary, thank you 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:10.319 very much for being here. Good to be with you. 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:13.960 We've heard from the President, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:16.640 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. I'm curious at this point 0:00:17.239 --> 0:00:20.240 what your understanding is of the case this administration has 0:00:20.280 --> 0:00:22.599 made for the US going to war against Iran. 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:25.120 Well, look, the case keeps shifting. But the first thing 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:28.120 to say is this, from my perspective, once our men 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:32.280 and women in uniform are engaged in an operation or 0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:34.960 in war, my first thought is for their safety and 0:00:35.000 --> 0:00:38.519 for their success, irrespective of what I think about how 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:41.239 we got there or even where this is going. So 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:44.960 that's primarily what I'm thinking of. But having said that, 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:48.080 we've heard, you know, number of shifting rationales. But I 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:51.040 think it's important to take into account that we've got 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:52.639 to be able to hold multiple truths in our head 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:55.480 at the same time. Is it a good thing that 0:00:56.120 --> 0:01:01.000 this iahtola is gone, Yes, terrible tyrant. Is it a 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:04.560 good thing potentially at least that Iran's nuclear program is 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:07.959 I guess reobliterated because apparently it was obliterated last June, 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:11.800 But maybe not so much because they had to reobliterate it, 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:18.160 or it's missile program diminished, or it's navy sunk. Yes, 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:25.199 But to do that and to take on the extraordinary 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:29.440 risks that go with it without having made the case 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:34.280 with the American people with citing imminent threats that apparently 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:39.200 didn't exist, I think that's problematic. And the chances of 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:44.520 unintended consequences taking hold in any situation like this are 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:47.600 very real, very serious for our partners and allies in 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:50.960 the region, and for ourselves, and of course with the 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:56.000 Iranian people. I think a big question that everyone has is, Okay, 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:59.600 have we done regime change in Iran or just iotola change, 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:01.320 which is the way it looks right now. 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:03.800 You brought up the argument that there was an inminate 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:07.320 threat in years past, you'd warned the amount of weeks 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:11.240 before Ron could develop fissile uranium. Is that an argument 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:13.120 that's persuasive to you so much as that's been made 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:15.640 by the ministration that there it's. 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:17.800 An ironic argument in a number of ways. First, as 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:21.120 I said, they claim to have obliterated the nuclear fissile 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:24.640 material program back in June, and now we're told, actually, no, 0:02:24.760 --> 0:02:26.720 we didn't. And A number of US warned at the 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:29.840 time that one of the reasons why military action against 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.640 the nuclear program might not do the trick is that 0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:35.120 the Iranians were likely to start to rebuild, maybe rebuild 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:38.360 deeper underground where we couldn't get at it. Whether that 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:40.239 was happening or to what extent, I don't know, because 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:41.840 I'm not privy to that information, but at least that 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:44.359 seems to be part of the rationale. The deeper irony, 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:46.360 of course, is that we never should have been in 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:50.440 this position, insofar as the agreement that the President Obama 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:54.440 reached the Iran Nuclear Dealer, so called JCPOA, put Iran's 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:57.480 nuclear program in a box. It made sure that Iran 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:00.000 could not produce the facile material needed for nuclear weapon 0:03:00.720 --> 0:03:03.000 in less than a year, and so if they chose 0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:04.760 to break out of the box and go for that, 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:07.200 we'd see it, and we'd have plenty of time to 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:09.440 be able to do something about it. President Trump tore 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:12.240 up that agreement, said he'd replace it with something better. 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:14.720 He never did, and that's the road that we then 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:17.360 wound up on that led to in some ways to 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:21.160 where we are today with Iran, yes dramatically advancing its 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:25.200 production of facile material, so that that breakout time moved 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:28.600 from one year to a couple of weeks. But you 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:31.320 don't only need fysile material, actually need a weapon too, 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:37.160 And I think, as has been publicly reported our intelligence 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:41.200 agencies and others, the IEA continue to conclude that Iran 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.440 has not made a decision to actually weaponize if and 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:47.960 when they do, or if and when they did, most 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:52.120 estimates had that timeline a couple of years. There are 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:55.480 different kinds of weapons, less sophisticated ones you could build 0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:58.160 on a quicker timeline. But the bottom line is that 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:01.280 on the nuclear side there was no imminent threat. There 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.120 was though the fact that, yes, in terms of facil 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.600 material production, they'd gone from the Obama deal more than 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:09.120 a year to a few weeks. 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:12.880 The Supreme Leader who's been killed, of course, warned in 0:04:12.880 --> 0:04:15.400 the run up to this that if there were US strikes, 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:20.200 the US risked a wider regional war. How has what's 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:22.360 played out over these last few days, How does that 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:24.880 compare to what you expected would happen here? I imagine 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:27.680 in your old jobs there were planning meetings and war 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:29.280 games in which you kind of tried to figure out 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:31.320 what might happen here as we see this war, widen, 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:33.560 is that in keeping with what you expected when you 0:04:33.640 --> 0:04:35.040 heard the Supreme Leader warned. 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:37.240 Them, well, look, it's certainly something that should have been anticipated. 0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:40.080 And one of the striking features so far is that 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:44.839 Iran has launched far more missiles and far more drones 0:04:45.320 --> 0:04:48.359 at the Arab countries in the Gulf and in the 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:52.320 region that it has even at Israel, disproportionately so. And 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:55.600 in part that's too because we have bases and presence there. 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:57.840 But they've gone beyond that. They've gone at infrastructure that 0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:00.880 these countries have, the oil infrastructure. They want to try 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:04.760 to inflict so much pain that we can't sustain the effort. 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:08.799 And that's something that should have been anticipated. And David, 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:11.320 I think we're looking at a couple of things going 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:13.160 forward in terms of where does this go and how 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:15.800 does this end? And it seems to me that there 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:21.880 are two critical factors to look at. Markets and munitions. Markets. 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:24.960 Where are the oil markets, where's the stock market, where's 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:27.520 the bond market? I know President Trump is very attentive 0:05:27.520 --> 0:05:31.360 to those. And if they go in a southernly direction 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:33.400 and stay that way, or in the case of oil 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:36.040 in a northernly direction. That's going to be possibly a 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:39.480 limited factor. Then munitions, there's there's really a race on 0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:43.839 to figure out who expends their munitions first and fastest. 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:49.600 The Iranians put us in a position where we've used 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:53.280 up a lot of interceptors to deal with defense or 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:56.600 even our offensive missiles to take out their their launchers, 0:05:57.480 --> 0:05:59.760 or conversely, did they run out and we still have 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:03.880 need Again, I don't know the numbers here, I'm not 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:05.279 privy to that, but it is something we have to 0:06:05.320 --> 0:06:07.400 be very very attentive to because these things are not 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:11.560 in infinite supply. The production times are very long, and 0:06:11.600 --> 0:06:13.960 of course we're also using very in many cases very 0:06:13.960 --> 0:06:17.000 expensive weapons to take down twenty thousand dollars drones. That's 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:19.239 not a good equation if you keep that going over time. 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:21.520 What I'm worried about. One of the things I'm worried about, 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:23.400 and this gets to the second and third order consequences, 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:27.039 is we so deplete our arsenal and it takes a 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:29.200 long time to rebuild it that that puts US in 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:32.320 a disadvantageous position when it comes to say a China 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:35.279 or a Russia. All of those things need to be 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:37.040 factored in. And again it's one of the reasons why 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:39.440 if you're going to undertake something like this, you've got 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:41.599 to make sure that you've factored all of that in. 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:44.760 And again it really should start with explaining to the 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:48.560 American people why you're doing something, why it's necessary. Why 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:49.280 now do. 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:51.760 You see an off ramp anywhere at this point? 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:54.920 I do in the sense that one, as I said, 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:58.080 I think the off ramp and if we'll be governed 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:00.880 by this question of munitions and markets, and then what 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:04.119 is that off ramp? I think the President may simply 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:09.200 declare victory. He'll say, got rid of the Ayatola. We 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:13.600 diminished or degraded or destroyed their their nuclear program. Again again, 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:16.440 we did the same thing to the missile program. We 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:18.640 did the same thing to the navy. And as to 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:22.760 the regime, well over the Iranian people, good luck to them. 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:25.679 Hope they succeed, and if they don't, it's their fault. 0:07:26.040 --> 0:07:29.440 If they do, we'll we'll take the credit. How Iran 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:32.080 response to that remains to be seen, and for the 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:37.920 for the regime survival of success. Right now, the expectation 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:41.800 seems to be at least as has been reported that 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:46.280 the Iatola Sun is his successor. He's very tied into 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:49.960 the IRGC, and so you may have a situation where, 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:52.000 much as we want and everyone should want to see 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:56.880 a change in that regime, we have, you know, regime 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:59.800 changed without regime change, status quo, status status quo, and 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:05.040 even potentially even worse because it may simply ultimately reinforce 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:09.880 the IRGC, the military as a specialized military. And part 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:13.600 of the problem with these things is that it's very 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:17.320 hard to produce regime change from outside. You can't bomb 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:19.440 your way to it. We've had a lot of experience 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:21.480 with that, and not such good experience over the last 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:25.960 twenty years. It's not so likely to come from the streets, 0:08:26.240 --> 0:08:29.920 even with extraordinarily courageous Iranian people. It's more likely to 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.320 come from kind of within the palace. And then it 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:34.800 could go in any one of you know, multiple directions. 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:38.960 You could get more pragmatic people, not good guys, but 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:41.840 more pragmatic people who are open to, you know, curbing 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:44.800 the excesses of the regime, focusing at home instead of 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:47.959 focusing abroad doing deals. But right now it looks more 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:52.200 likely that you're going to have hardliners, and you know, 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:56.320 the who had a song way back in the sixties 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:58.439 or seventies. You know, here's to the new boss, same 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:00.920 as the old boss that seem used to be right 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:02.040 now at least where we're headed. 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:07.040 You've warned of the dangers of US intervention many times. 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:09.120 Twenty twenty four, you spoke at the Council on Form relations. 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:11.320 He said, effectively, I think if we looked the last 0:09:11.320 --> 0:09:13.720 twenty years, our experiments in regime change have not exactly 0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:18.440 been resounding successes. CNN is reporting that the US is 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:22.080 considering arming the Kurds in Iron. Bloomberg hasn't confirmed that reporting. 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:25.360 When you hear that, what red flags does that raise 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:25.560 for you? 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:28.120 Oh? The red flag it raises is this could be 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:31.840 Syria reducts, or it could be Libya reducts. You've got 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:35.240 you know Iran as a country where you know, the 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:37.880 Shites make up less than half of the population. You 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:41.360 have all sorts of other groups, including Kurds, Azari's others, 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:46.319 who make up the bulk of the population. You could 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:52.319 see the country fracturing, imploding, or even exploding with refugees 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:56.400 and migration, with the exporting of some of their problems, 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:59.560 with extremist groups taking hold in one part or another. 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:04.640 It's incredibly fraud and incredibly dangerous. And as sympathetic as 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:06.880 I am to the Curs who've been incredible partners for us, 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:09.959 incredibly brave, I don't think that getting into the business 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:11.760 of arming these groups is ultimately going to be a 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:15.400 good thing. And then you're going to have other countries 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:18.640 that pick their partners inside, and again you wind up 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:21.040 with something like Syria, something like Libya. 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:24.960 Let's talk a bit about diplomacy, the president posted on 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.160 truth Social they want to talk prefer to the Iranians. 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:31.160 I said, too late? Is it too late for there 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:33.439 to be a diplomatic solution or to have those conversations 0:10:33.440 --> 0:10:33.920 at this point? 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:37.560 I I think it's never too late for diplomacy. The 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:40.720 question is is there a good moment? Is this the 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:43.839 right moment for it? I would hope so, because on 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:47.160 one level, the Iranians have never been weaker, at least 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:53.720 not in recent memory, militarily, politically at home, diplomatically abroad 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:58.440 and so, and their proxies are for the most part 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:01.560 gone or vastly diminished. So that's why I was hopeful 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:05.800 before this, uh this action started, that maybe they actually 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:08.199 would get a renewed nuclear deal because Iran was had 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:10.679 a very weak hand to play. So there I think 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:13.400 there is a possibility of doing that. Whether the new 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:15.920 whatever the new regime is or the continuation of the existing 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:18.160 regimes is ready to do that, wants to do that 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.439 to be determined. It also depends on what the what 0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:24.120 the Trump administration wants to do, and I imagine Israel 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:25.400 is going to have a say in this as well. 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:28.600 As the administration was marshaling all of this military might 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.760 to the Middle East, you had Jared Kushner, the President's 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:33.920 son in law, Steve Witkoff, his longtime friend now on 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:39.400 void to many conflicts and regions, meeting in Geneva in 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:42.640 meetings mediated by the Omanis. Do you think that those 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:44.880 were good faith conversations when you look at it now 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:45.640 in hindsight. 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:47.520 Look, I can't. It's hard for me to tell, not 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.400 being in the room, not being privy to those conversations. 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:53.679 I certainly want to believe, So I don't know. As 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:57.560 you know, I think Jared Kushner and Steve Woodkoff are 0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:01.280 very able nego, but it was not clear to me 0:12:01.360 --> 0:12:04.480 that the expertise was also with them, which is very necessary. 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:06.800 When you're dealing with nuclear matters. When we did the JCPOA, 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:10.959 we had very senior diplomats, but we had tremendous technical 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:14.920 expertise at hand, because you know, it's complicated stuff and 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:16.600 you want to make sure you're not making a mistake. 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:18.199 So I'm not sure who was actually in the room 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:22.840 and whether the people in the room could fully evaluate 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:24.360 and assess is this a good deal? Is this a 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:26.599 bad deal? And I've heard different versions of what the 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:29.079 Iranians were actually willing to do, not willing to do, 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:30.839 different versions of what we were willing to do or 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:34.840 not willing to do. Not being there, it's hard to tell. 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:38.599 But you know, David, when President Trump tore up the 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:41.760 JCPOA back in the day first term, he said he 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:43.360 wanted to replace it with a better deal, and I 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:46.439 think there was actually an opportunity to do that because 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:49.319 Iran was in so much of a weaker position now 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.160 than it was back when President Obama negotiated the deal. 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:54.839 You, of course, are a professional diplomat. You've dealt with 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:57.920 the Iranians directly, and I'm curious if you think that, 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:00.959 Steve Witkoff, Jared Kirsch, we're at some sort of inherent 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:04.319 disadvantage in those talks because you had professional diplomats on 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:06.080 one side and they were on the other. This isn't 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:07.320 what they've done their entire lives. 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.120 Look, a number of the Iranians have been doing this 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:14.760 for a long time, and we when we change administrations, 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:19.200 we change out the people who are doing these doing 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:21.959 these issues, and there's a certain learning curve and you 0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:25.280 have to get up to speed and become genuinely expert 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:27.880 in things. Again, That's why I think it's so important 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:29.280 to make sure that you have the experts with you, 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:34.360 because they have they're the continuity. The Iranians have continuity 0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:37.600 because it's usually the same cash to characters. The same 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:39.680 guys have been doing this for a long time. Auranchi, 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:43.640 the Foreign Minister, was Zerif's the then Foreign minister's deputy 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:45.760 back then, so he knows what he's doing. 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:49.920 I'm curious what you are thinking as you watch the 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:53.120 chaos unfolding in the Middle East, particularly with Americans who 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.640 would like to leave and are being told different things. 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.520 It seems like there is no easy out, for lack 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:00.959 of a better two, for them to get out of 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.280 the region. What has happened there is you see, and 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:06.160 what needs to happen to make it so that Americans 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:07.280 can get back to the United States. 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.960 Well, it's not very America first to put American citizens last, 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:13.599 and that seems to be what happened. I mean, it 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:18.080 was not until days into this that the administration thought 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:21.760 about maybe getting some planes out there to try to 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:25.200 get people out. A little bit late, and when people 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:28.160 at least initially were asking for help, calling for help, 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:32.400 the answer they got was basically, get out, but we 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:38.200 can't help you. After October seventh, In the days immediately 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:43.520 after October seventh, we surged charter airplanes to Israel, boats, 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:48.760 cruise ships that could ferry the tens potentially tens of 0:14:48.840 --> 0:14:52.640 thousands of dual nationals who were there out of harm's 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:54.840 way to Cyprus. When it came to boats, and as 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:57.520 long as the airport was operating to various places, the 0:14:57.560 --> 0:14:59.640 boats were there because we thought the airports might be 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:02.600 be shut down. All of that happened very quickly, and 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:05.040 this was in response to something we obviously didn't know 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:10.880 it was coming. And so I think doing this after 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:16.080 the fact in a not very planned way, especially when 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:19.200 you're the initiator, is unfortunate. 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:23.400 You've noted in the past that during war games, something's 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:25.400 come up where if there were to be this kind 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.760 of chaos in Iran, the regime might move uranium to 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:31.160 different places across the country. And going back to what 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.480 you were talking about a moment ago, the prospects of 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:36.240 there being a Libya esque or Syria esque civil war, 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:41.160 how worried should we be about that nuclear material being 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:44.880 effectively scattered across this country and they're being next to 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:47.280 no accountability for a where it is and be into 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:48.320 whose hands it falls. 0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:50.840 Yeah, I think that's a real concern. I would assume 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:54.760 that the remaining material and again I don't know. We've 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:58.680 seen lots of reports that it's likely that they were 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:03.680 able to preserve safe guard a lot of urseraneum, but 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.720 I don't know that for a fact. I would assume 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:10.360 that they've tried to disperse it, as you said, presumably 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.280 in places that the regime has some control over. But 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:15.880 if a country winds up in some kind of civil war, yeah, 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:18.800 that's a real concern and something that we have to 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:22.240 factor into our thinking. If we're going to start, you know, 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:26.240 dropping matches there in terms of arming various groups, we 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.920 better watch out in terms of getting what we wish for. 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:36.840 But you know, of course, you've seen extraordinarily courageous people 0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:42.840 beyond imagination who are out in the streets looking for change, 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:45.080 getting mowed down by this regime. And we all want 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:47.720 to see a different future for them, different leadership for them. 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:52.040 But it's very very hard, if not impossible, to do 0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:55.160 that from the outside, as we were saying, And the 0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:59.320 risks now are that instead of having a change, having 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.440 a transition, you have an implosion, and then maybe even 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:07.320 an explosion that has real effects outside the country. We 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.040 have partners in the region. I was talking earlier about 0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:13.119 how one of the limiting factors on this, you know, 0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:17.959 goes to munitions. Our partners in the region have far 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:21.399 fewer interceptors air defense interceptors than we do. If it 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:23.760 gets to the point where they're running out, and the 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.919 Iranians have enough to continue going at their infrastructure, at 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:28.800 their people, I think there's going to be a pretty 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.840 strong demand signal on the administration to take an off 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:34.800 ramp to stop. We've had other second and third order 0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:39.440 consequences here at the very time when Russia is really 0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:43.240 reaching a weak point because of its dependence on oil 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:47.639 to fuel its war economy, it's revenues. The government's revenues 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:50.440 are down almost twenty percent, in large part because the 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:53.359 price of oil has gone down. It's having more trouble 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.360 exploiting oil because of sanctions and restrictions that we put 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:59.840 on technology. That's been a huge and growing factor. And 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:02.920 the thing to do now, ideally would be to squeeze 0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:05.960 the shadow fleet that they have that's going around the world, 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.600 and that's the one thing that's able to keep them going. 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:11.520 At the very time when that's possible, and that that 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:15.119 might force putin to finally cut a deal on Ukraine, 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:17.400 they get a lifeline. And the lifeline is the price 0:18:17.440 --> 0:18:19.399 of oil is going up, and the value of that 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:22.000 shadow fleet oil is going up, and people will need 0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:24.560 it and want to buy it. The Europeans, in turn, 0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:28.720 having moved away from Russian gas, are now more dependent 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.520 on the Middle East, and if that gets tied up, 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:35.119 if the Straits of Hormuz remain problematic, that's going to 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:38.440 put a lot of pressure on them. So mapping out, 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:41.639 gaming out, planning out, and then making sure you have 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.360 something in place to deal with all of these second 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:46.760 and third order effects usually important. It's not at all 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:47.760 clear to me that that was done. 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:50.800 From where we sit today, are you confident that the 0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:54.280 US can extricate itself from this without putting boots on 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:55.679 the ground in run. 0:18:56.040 --> 0:18:58.760 It depends what the objective is. I think that yes. 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.760 In short, as I said a moment ago, you know, 0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:05.520 the President could theoretically declare victory tomorrow and claim that, 0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:08.080 you know, severe damage was done to the regime, to 0:19:08.200 --> 0:19:11.280 the missiles, to the nuclear program, to the Navy, and 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:14.960 say and call it a day. But then for what 0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:19.800 Most of that stuff ultimately can be rebuilt, and absent 0:19:19.880 --> 0:19:24.800 a change in the governance in the regime, which right 0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:29.240 now in this moment doesn't seem to be forthcoming huge 0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:33.240 risk without the support of the well without the in 0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:38.000 effect of buying from the American people, that leaves us 0:19:38.160 --> 0:19:41.480 actually potentially for some time and as strategically we can 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:44.320 position with regard for example, to China, Russia, because our 0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:50.160 own stockpiles of critical long range position guided weapons are down, 0:19:50.680 --> 0:19:58.120 our air defense stockpile interceptors is down. That's usually usually questionable, 0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:00.880 but that is I think that is an off ramp 0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:02.480 that's available to the President if he wants to take it. 0:20:03.720 --> 0:20:06.240 As you've pointed out President Trump pulled out of the 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:09.399 Iron Nuclear Deal during his first term when you were 0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:11.720 Secretary of State, there was an effort to reanimate that, 0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:15.480 to get another iteration of it. What were the challenges 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:18.000 of that and why was it the case that in 0:20:18.040 --> 0:20:19.920 twenty twenty two of those talks broke down. 0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:23.040 Look, we tried very hard to get back to the deal. 0:20:23.160 --> 0:20:25.760 But at that point in time, and especially with the 0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:28.720 passage of time, there were two things that were critical. 0:20:29.320 --> 0:20:33.040 One was that, of course the Iranians, not without reason, 0:20:33.840 --> 0:20:35.840 said how can we trust anything. We could do it, 0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:38.600 We can do a deal, and then maybe the President 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:41.560 Biden's successor does exactly what President Trump does. So there 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:44.520 was a limiting factor there. But the bigger limiting factor 0:20:44.600 --> 0:20:48.159 was getting the Iranians to agree to terms that we 0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:52.679 deemed necessary and sufficient to make the deal the right 0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:56.440 deal to do, and in particular re extending the timelines 0:20:56.480 --> 0:21:00.240 the constraints that the original deal had in them on 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:03.000 the nuclear program. We couldn't get to where we thought 0:21:03.040 --> 0:21:05.480 we needed to be to make it worthwhile. And we 0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:08.000 were doing it in partnership, in very close partnership with 0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:11.600 our European friends and allies. With the French, with the British, 0:21:11.640 --> 0:21:14.560 with the Germans, with the European Union, something that hadn't 0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:17.200 been the case in the immediate previous years. And I 0:21:17.280 --> 0:21:21.160 think we all agreed that the deal that the Iranians 0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:23.920 were willing to sign on to was simply not adequate. 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:26.760 I wish we could have gotten there, But more than that, 0:21:27.359 --> 0:21:29.119 I wish the President Trump had not torn up the 0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:31.440