1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:08,719 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Sir Secretary, thank you 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:10,319 Speaker 1: very much for being here. Good to be with you. 3 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 2: We've heard from the President, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, 4 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 2: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. I'm curious at this point 5 00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:20,240 Speaker 2: what your understanding is of the case this administration has 6 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 2: made for the US going to war against Iran. 7 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: Well, look, the case keeps shifting. But the first thing 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: to say is this, from my perspective, once our men 9 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: and women in uniform are engaged in an operation or 10 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 1: in war, my first thought is for their safety and 11 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 1: for their success, irrespective of what I think about how 12 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,239 Speaker 1: we got there or even where this is going. So 13 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: that's primarily what I'm thinking of. But having said that, 14 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: we've heard, you know, number of shifting rationales. But I 15 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: think it's important to take into account that we've got 16 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:52,639 Speaker 1: to be able to hold multiple truths in our head 17 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: at the same time. Is it a good thing that 18 00:00:56,120 --> 00:01:01,000 Speaker 1: this iahtola is gone, Yes, terrible tyrant. Is it a 19 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: good thing potentially at least that Iran's nuclear program is 20 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 1: I guess reobliterated because apparently it was obliterated last June, 21 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: But maybe not so much because they had to reobliterate it, 22 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 1: or it's missile program diminished, or it's navy sunk. Yes, 23 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:25,199 Speaker 1: But to do that and to take on the extraordinary 24 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: risks that go with it without having made the case 25 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: with the American people with citing imminent threats that apparently 26 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 1: didn't exist, I think that's problematic. And the chances of 27 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: unintended consequences taking hold in any situation like this are 28 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 1: very real, very serious for our partners and allies in 29 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: the region, and for ourselves, and of course with the 30 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 1: Iranian people. I think a big question that everyone has is, Okay, 31 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: have we done regime change in Iran or just iotola change, 32 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: which is the way it looks right now. 33 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 2: You brought up the argument that there was an inminate 34 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 2: threat in years past, you'd warned the amount of weeks 35 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 2: before Ron could develop fissile uranium. Is that an argument 36 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 2: that's persuasive to you so much as that's been made 37 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 2: by the ministration that there it's. 38 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 1: An ironic argument in a number of ways. First, as 39 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 1: I said, they claim to have obliterated the nuclear fissile 40 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 1: material program back in June, and now we're told, actually, no, 41 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: we didn't. And A number of US warned at the 42 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: time that one of the reasons why military action against 43 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 1: the nuclear program might not do the trick is that 44 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 1: the Iranians were likely to start to rebuild, maybe rebuild 45 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: deeper underground where we couldn't get at it. Whether that 46 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: was happening or to what extent, I don't know, because 47 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: I'm not privy to that information, but at least that 48 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 1: seems to be part of the rationale. The deeper irony, 49 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 1: of course, is that we never should have been in 50 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: this position, insofar as the agreement that the President Obama 51 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 1: reached the Iran Nuclear Dealer, so called JCPOA, put Iran's 52 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: nuclear program in a box. It made sure that Iran 53 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: could not produce the facile material needed for nuclear weapon 54 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: in less than a year, and so if they chose 55 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: to break out of the box and go for that, 56 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: we'd see it, and we'd have plenty of time to 57 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: be able to do something about it. President Trump tore 58 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: up that agreement, said he'd replace it with something better. 59 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: He never did, and that's the road that we then 60 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 1: wound up on that led to in some ways to 61 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 1: where we are today with Iran, yes dramatically advancing its 62 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: production of facile material, so that that breakout time moved 63 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: from one year to a couple of weeks. But you 64 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 1: don't only need fysile material, actually need a weapon too, 65 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: And I think, as has been publicly reported our intelligence 66 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: agencies and others, the IEA continue to conclude that Iran 67 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: has not made a decision to actually weaponize if and 68 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: when they do, or if and when they did, most 69 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: estimates had that timeline a couple of years. There are 70 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: different kinds of weapons, less sophisticated ones you could build 71 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: on a quicker timeline. But the bottom line is that 72 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: on the nuclear side there was no imminent threat. There 73 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: was though the fact that, yes, in terms of facil 74 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: material production, they'd gone from the Obama deal more than 75 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: a year to a few weeks. 76 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 2: The Supreme Leader who's been killed, of course, warned in 77 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 2: the run up to this that if there were US strikes, 78 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 2: the US risked a wider regional war. How has what's 79 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 2: played out over these last few days, How does that 80 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 2: compare to what you expected would happen here? I imagine 81 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 2: in your old jobs there were planning meetings and war 82 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 2: games in which you kind of tried to figure out 83 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 2: what might happen here as we see this war, widen, 84 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 2: is that in keeping with what you expected when you 85 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 2: heard the Supreme Leader warned. 86 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: Them, well, look, it's certainly something that should have been anticipated. 87 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 1: And one of the striking features so far is that 88 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 1: Iran has launched far more missiles and far more drones 89 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,359 Speaker 1: at the Arab countries in the Gulf and in the 90 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: region that it has even at Israel, disproportionately so. And 91 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 1: in part that's too because we have bases and presence there. 92 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:57,840 Speaker 1: But they've gone beyond that. They've gone at infrastructure that 93 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: these countries have, the oil infrastructure. They want to try 94 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: to inflict so much pain that we can't sustain the effort. 95 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,799 Speaker 1: And that's something that should have been anticipated. And David, 96 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: I think we're looking at a couple of things going 97 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 1: forward in terms of where does this go and how 98 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 1: does this end? And it seems to me that there 99 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 1: are two critical factors to look at. Markets and munitions. Markets. 100 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: Where are the oil markets, where's the stock market, where's 101 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: the bond market? I know President Trump is very attentive 102 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:31,360 Speaker 1: to those. And if they go in a southernly direction 103 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: and stay that way, or in the case of oil 104 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 1: in a northernly direction. That's going to be possibly a 105 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 1: limited factor. Then munitions, there's there's really a race on 106 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: to figure out who expends their munitions first and fastest. 107 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 1: The Iranians put us in a position where we've used 108 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 1: up a lot of interceptors to deal with defense or 109 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 1: even our offensive missiles to take out their their launchers, 110 00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: or conversely, did they run out and we still have 111 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: need Again, I don't know the numbers here, I'm not 112 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:05,279 Speaker 1: privy to that, but it is something we have to 113 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: be very very attentive to because these things are not 114 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: in infinite supply. The production times are very long, and 115 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: of course we're also using very in many cases very 116 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: expensive weapons to take down twenty thousand dollars drones. That's 117 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,239 Speaker 1: not a good equation if you keep that going over time. 118 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: What I'm worried about. One of the things I'm worried about, 119 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: and this gets to the second and third order consequences, 120 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:27,039 Speaker 1: is we so deplete our arsenal and it takes a 121 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: long time to rebuild it that that puts US in 122 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: a disadvantageous position when it comes to say a China 123 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 1: or a Russia. All of those things need to be 124 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: factored in. And again it's one of the reasons why 125 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: if you're going to undertake something like this, you've got 126 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 1: to make sure that you've factored all of that in. 127 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: And again it really should start with explaining to the 128 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: American people why you're doing something, why it's necessary. Why 129 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 1: now do. 130 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 2: You see an off ramp anywhere at this point? 131 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: I do in the sense that one, as I said, 132 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: I think the off ramp and if we'll be governed 133 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: by this question of munitions and markets, and then what 134 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,119 Speaker 1: is that off ramp? I think the President may simply 135 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: declare victory. He'll say, got rid of the Ayatola. We 136 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: diminished or degraded or destroyed their their nuclear program. Again again, 137 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: we did the same thing to the missile program. We 138 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: did the same thing to the navy. And as to 139 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 1: the regime, well over the Iranian people, good luck to them. 140 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,679 Speaker 1: Hope they succeed, and if they don't, it's their fault. 141 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: If they do, we'll we'll take the credit. How Iran 142 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: response to that remains to be seen, and for the 143 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: for the regime survival of success. Right now, the expectation 144 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: seems to be at least as has been reported that 145 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: the Iatola Sun is his successor. He's very tied into 146 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: the IRGC, and so you may have a situation where, 147 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 1: much as we want and everyone should want to see 148 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 1: a change in that regime, we have, you know, regime 149 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: changed without regime change, status quo, status status quo, and 150 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: even potentially even worse because it may simply ultimately reinforce 151 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: the IRGC, the military as a specialized military. And part 152 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: of the problem with these things is that it's very 153 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 1: hard to produce regime change from outside. You can't bomb 154 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: your way to it. We've had a lot of experience 155 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 1: with that, and not such good experience over the last 156 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: twenty years. It's not so likely to come from the streets, 157 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: even with extraordinarily courageous Iranian people. It's more likely to 158 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: come from kind of within the palace. And then it 159 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: could go in any one of you know, multiple directions. 160 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 1: You could get more pragmatic people, not good guys, but 161 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: more pragmatic people who are open to, you know, curbing 162 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: the excesses of the regime, focusing at home instead of 163 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:47,959 Speaker 1: focusing abroad doing deals. But right now it looks more 164 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 1: likely that you're going to have hardliners, and you know, 165 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 1: the who had a song way back in the sixties 166 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:58,439 Speaker 1: or seventies. You know, here's to the new boss, same 167 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: as the old boss that seem used to be right 168 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: now at least where we're headed. 169 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 2: You've warned of the dangers of US intervention many times. 170 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 2: Twenty twenty four, you spoke at the Council on Form relations. 171 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,320 Speaker 2: He said, effectively, I think if we looked the last 172 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 2: twenty years, our experiments in regime change have not exactly 173 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 2: been resounding successes. CNN is reporting that the US is 174 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 2: considering arming the Kurds in Iron. Bloomberg hasn't confirmed that reporting. 175 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 2: When you hear that, what red flags does that raise 176 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 2: for you? 177 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: Oh? The red flag it raises is this could be 178 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 1: Syria reducts, or it could be Libya reducts. You've got 179 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: you know Iran as a country where you know, the 180 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: Shites make up less than half of the population. You 181 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: have all sorts of other groups, including Kurds, Azari's others, 182 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:46,319 Speaker 1: who make up the bulk of the population. You could 183 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 1: see the country fracturing, imploding, or even exploding with refugees 184 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: and migration, with the exporting of some of their problems, 185 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 1: with extremist groups taking hold in one part or another. 186 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: It's incredibly fraud and incredibly dangerous. And as sympathetic as 187 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: I am to the Curs who've been incredible partners for us, 188 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 1: incredibly brave, I don't think that getting into the business 189 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 1: of arming these groups is ultimately going to be a 190 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 1: good thing. And then you're going to have other countries 191 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 1: that pick their partners inside, and again you wind up 192 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: with something like Syria, something like Libya. 193 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 2: Let's talk a bit about diplomacy, the president posted on 194 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 2: truth Social they want to talk prefer to the Iranians. 195 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 2: I said, too late? Is it too late for there 196 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,439 Speaker 2: to be a diplomatic solution or to have those conversations 197 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 2: at this point? 198 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 1: I I think it's never too late for diplomacy. The 199 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: question is is there a good moment? Is this the 200 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 1: right moment for it? I would hope so, because on 201 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: one level, the Iranians have never been weaker, at least 202 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: not in recent memory, militarily, politically at home, diplomatically abroad 203 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 1: and so, and their proxies are for the most part 204 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: gone or vastly diminished. So that's why I was hopeful 205 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 1: before this, uh this action started, that maybe they actually 206 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,199 Speaker 1: would get a renewed nuclear deal because Iran was had 207 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,679 Speaker 1: a very weak hand to play. So there I think 208 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 1: there is a possibility of doing that. Whether the new 209 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: whatever the new regime is or the continuation of the existing 210 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 1: regimes is ready to do that, wants to do that 211 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,439 Speaker 1: to be determined. It also depends on what the what 212 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: the Trump administration wants to do, and I imagine Israel 213 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: is going to have a say in this as well. 214 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 2: As the administration was marshaling all of this military might 215 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 2: to the Middle East, you had Jared Kushner, the President's 216 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 2: son in law, Steve Witkoff, his longtime friend now on 217 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 2: void to many conflicts and regions, meeting in Geneva in 218 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 2: meetings mediated by the Omanis. Do you think that those 219 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 2: were good faith conversations when you look at it now 220 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 2: in hindsight. 221 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 1: Look, I can't. It's hard for me to tell, not 222 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: being in the room, not being privy to those conversations. 223 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 1: I certainly want to believe, So I don't know. As 224 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 1: you know, I think Jared Kushner and Steve Woodkoff are 225 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: very able nego, but it was not clear to me 226 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: that the expertise was also with them, which is very necessary. 227 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: When you're dealing with nuclear matters. When we did the JCPOA, 228 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,959 Speaker 1: we had very senior diplomats, but we had tremendous technical 229 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: expertise at hand, because you know, it's complicated stuff and 230 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 1: you want to make sure you're not making a mistake. 231 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:18,199 Speaker 1: So I'm not sure who was actually in the room 232 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: and whether the people in the room could fully evaluate 233 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: and assess is this a good deal? Is this a 234 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:26,599 Speaker 1: bad deal? And I've heard different versions of what the 235 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,079 Speaker 1: Iranians were actually willing to do, not willing to do, 236 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:30,839 Speaker 1: different versions of what we were willing to do or 237 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 1: not willing to do. Not being there, it's hard to tell. 238 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,599 Speaker 1: But you know, David, when President Trump tore up the 239 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: JCPOA back in the day first term, he said he 240 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 1: wanted to replace it with a better deal, and I 241 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,439 Speaker 1: think there was actually an opportunity to do that because 242 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 1: Iran was in so much of a weaker position now 243 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 1: than it was back when President Obama negotiated the deal. 244 00:12:52,640 --> 00:12:54,839 Speaker 2: You, of course, are a professional diplomat. You've dealt with 245 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 2: the Iranians directly, and I'm curious if you think that, 246 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:00,959 Speaker 2: Steve Witkoff, Jared Kirsch, we're at some sort of inherent 247 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 2: disadvantage in those talks because you had professional diplomats on 248 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:06,080 Speaker 2: one side and they were on the other. This isn't 249 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 2: what they've done their entire lives. 250 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: Look, a number of the Iranians have been doing this 251 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:14,760 Speaker 1: for a long time, and we when we change administrations, 252 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: we change out the people who are doing these doing 253 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,959 Speaker 1: these issues, and there's a certain learning curve and you 254 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 1: have to get up to speed and become genuinely expert 255 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: in things. Again, That's why I think it's so important 256 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 1: to make sure that you have the experts with you, 257 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: because they have they're the continuity. The Iranians have continuity 258 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 1: because it's usually the same cash to characters. The same 259 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 1: guys have been doing this for a long time. Auranchi, 260 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: the Foreign Minister, was Zerif's the then Foreign minister's deputy 261 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: back then, so he knows what he's doing. 262 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 2: I'm curious what you are thinking as you watch the 263 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 2: chaos unfolding in the Middle East, particularly with Americans who 264 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 2: would like to leave and are being told different things. 265 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 2: It seems like there is no easy out, for lack 266 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:00,959 Speaker 2: of a better two, for them to get out of 267 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 2: the region. What has happened there is you see, and 268 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 2: what needs to happen to make it so that Americans 269 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 2: can get back to the United States. 270 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: Well, it's not very America first to put American citizens last, 271 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,599 Speaker 1: and that seems to be what happened. I mean, it 272 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: was not until days into this that the administration thought 273 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 1: about maybe getting some planes out there to try to 274 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 1: get people out. A little bit late, and when people 275 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: at least initially were asking for help, calling for help, 276 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 1: the answer they got was basically, get out, but we 277 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: can't help you. After October seventh, In the days immediately 278 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: after October seventh, we surged charter airplanes to Israel, boats, 279 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:48,760 Speaker 1: cruise ships that could ferry the tens potentially tens of 280 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 1: thousands of dual nationals who were there out of harm's 281 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: way to Cyprus. When it came to boats, and as 282 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: long as the airport was operating to various places, the 283 00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 1: boats were there because we thought the airports might be 284 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 1: be shut down. All of that happened very quickly, and 285 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: this was in response to something we obviously didn't know 286 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 1: it was coming. And so I think doing this after 287 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: the fact in a not very planned way, especially when 288 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 1: you're the initiator, is unfortunate. 289 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 2: You've noted in the past that during war games, something's 290 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 2: come up where if there were to be this kind 291 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 2: of chaos in Iran, the regime might move uranium to 292 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 2: different places across the country. And going back to what 293 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 2: you were talking about a moment ago, the prospects of 294 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 2: there being a Libya esque or Syria esque civil war, 295 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 2: how worried should we be about that nuclear material being 296 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: effectively scattered across this country and they're being next to 297 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 2: no accountability for a where it is and be into 298 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 2: whose hands it falls. 299 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a real concern. I would assume 300 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: that the remaining material and again I don't know. We've 301 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 1: seen lots of reports that it's likely that they were 302 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: able to preserve safe guard a lot of urseraneum, but 303 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 1: I don't know that for a fact. I would assume 304 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 1: that they've tried to disperse it, as you said, presumably 305 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 1: in places that the regime has some control over. But 306 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: if a country winds up in some kind of civil war, yeah, 307 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: that's a real concern and something that we have to 308 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 1: factor into our thinking. If we're going to start, you know, 309 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 1: dropping matches there in terms of arming various groups, we 310 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: better watch out in terms of getting what we wish for. 311 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: But you know, of course, you've seen extraordinarily courageous people 312 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 1: beyond imagination who are out in the streets looking for change, 313 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 1: getting mowed down by this regime. And we all want 314 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: to see a different future for them, different leadership for them. 315 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: But it's very very hard, if not impossible, to do 316 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: that from the outside, as we were saying, And the 317 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: risks now are that instead of having a change, having 318 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: a transition, you have an implosion, and then maybe even 319 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: an explosion that has real effects outside the country. We 320 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: have partners in the region. I was talking earlier about 321 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 1: how one of the limiting factors on this, you know, 322 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:17,959 Speaker 1: goes to munitions. Our partners in the region have far 323 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,399 Speaker 1: fewer interceptors air defense interceptors than we do. If it 324 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: gets to the point where they're running out, and the 325 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:26,919 Speaker 1: Iranians have enough to continue going at their infrastructure, at 326 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: their people, I think there's going to be a pretty 327 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 1: strong demand signal on the administration to take an off 328 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 1: ramp to stop. We've had other second and third order 329 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:39,440 Speaker 1: consequences here at the very time when Russia is really 330 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 1: reaching a weak point because of its dependence on oil 331 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: to fuel its war economy, it's revenues. The government's revenues 332 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,440 Speaker 1: are down almost twenty percent, in large part because the 333 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: price of oil has gone down. It's having more trouble 334 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 1: exploiting oil because of sanctions and restrictions that we put 335 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 1: on technology. That's been a huge and growing factor. And 336 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 1: the thing to do now, ideally would be to squeeze 337 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 1: the shadow fleet that they have that's going around the world, 338 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 1: and that's the one thing that's able to keep them going. 339 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: At the very time when that's possible, and that that 340 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 1: might force putin to finally cut a deal on Ukraine, 341 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 1: they get a lifeline. And the lifeline is the price 342 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,399 Speaker 1: of oil is going up, and the value of that 343 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: shadow fleet oil is going up, and people will need 344 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: it and want to buy it. The Europeans, in turn, 345 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: having moved away from Russian gas, are now more dependent 346 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 1: on the Middle East, and if that gets tied up, 347 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 1: if the Straits of Hormuz remain problematic, that's going to 348 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 1: put a lot of pressure on them. So mapping out, 349 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 1: gaming out, planning out, and then making sure you have 350 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,360 Speaker 1: something in place to deal with all of these second 351 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 1: and third order effects usually important. It's not at all 352 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 1: clear to me that that was done. 353 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 2: From where we sit today, are you confident that the 354 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 2: US can extricate itself from this without putting boots on 355 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 2: the ground in run. 356 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: It depends what the objective is. I think that yes. 357 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: In short, as I said a moment ago, you know, 358 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: the President could theoretically declare victory tomorrow and claim that, 359 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: you know, severe damage was done to the regime, to 360 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: the missiles, to the nuclear program, to the Navy, and 361 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 1: say and call it a day. But then for what 362 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 1: Most of that stuff ultimately can be rebuilt, and absent 363 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: a change in the governance in the regime, which right 364 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 1: now in this moment doesn't seem to be forthcoming huge 365 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 1: risk without the support of the well without the in 366 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 1: effect of buying from the American people, that leaves us 367 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 1: actually potentially for some time and as strategically we can 368 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 1: position with regard for example, to China, Russia, because our 369 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:50,160 Speaker 1: own stockpiles of critical long range position guided weapons are down, 370 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:58,120 Speaker 1: our air defense stockpile interceptors is down. That's usually usually questionable, 371 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 1: but that is I think that is an off ramp 372 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:02,480 Speaker 1: that's available to the President if he wants to take it. 373 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 2: As you've pointed out President Trump pulled out of the 374 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 2: Iron Nuclear Deal during his first term when you were 375 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 2: Secretary of State, there was an effort to reanimate that, 376 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 2: to get another iteration of it. What were the challenges 377 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 2: of that and why was it the case that in 378 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two of those talks broke down. 379 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 1: Look, we tried very hard to get back to the deal. 380 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: But at that point in time, and especially with the 381 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: passage of time, there were two things that were critical. 382 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: One was that, of course the Iranians, not without reason, 383 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: said how can we trust anything. We could do it, 384 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 1: We can do a deal, and then maybe the President 385 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: Biden's successor does exactly what President Trump does. So there 386 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: was a limiting factor there. But the bigger limiting factor 387 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 1: was getting the Iranians to agree to terms that we 388 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 1: deemed necessary and sufficient to make the deal the right 389 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 1: deal to do, and in particular re extending the timelines 390 00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: the constraints that the original deal had in them on 391 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: the nuclear program. We couldn't get to where we thought 392 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 1: we needed to be to make it worthwhile. And we 393 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 1: were doing it in partnership, in very close partnership with 394 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 1: our European friends and allies. With the French, with the British, 395 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: with the Germans, with the European Union, something that hadn't 396 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 1: been the case in the immediate previous years. And I 397 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 1: think we all agreed that the deal that the Iranians 398 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 1: were willing to sign on to was simply not adequate. 399 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 1: I wish we could have gotten there, But more than that, 400 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 1: I wish the President Trump had not torn up the 401 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 1: original deal. We'd be in a very different position, in 402 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: a very different world. 403 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 2: Do you feel it all like perfection shouldn't be the 404 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:35,719 Speaker 2: enemy of the good here, that it would have been 405 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 2: wiser to find some sort of deal with them. 406 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, you have to make You always have to 407 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,479 Speaker 1: make judgments about these things, and you have to make 408 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: judgments about whether, yes, the good enough is good enough. 409 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: And it was our judgment, our estimation, that we weren't there, 410 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 1: but you know were We continued to stay at it, 411 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:58,159 Speaker 1: but the Iranians in that moment were not moving sufficiently 412 00:21:58,240 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 1: to get us to where we needed to be. 413 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 2: I want to ask you about something that your successor 414 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 2: said this week. Secretary State Marco Rubia was talking about 415 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,400 Speaker 2: the motivations for this war. He said Israel was planting 416 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 2: attacks that could lead to reprisals on American troops, so 417 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,920 Speaker 2: the US had to get involved militarily. He since walked 418 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 2: that back a bit, But what does that say to 419 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 2: you about the relationship between the US and Israel and 420 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 2: the influence that the US has over Israeli policy. 421 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 1: Look, this has been a long story when it comes 422 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: to Iran, and back during the Obama administration, the Israelis 423 00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 1: were pushing President Obama to take military action against Iran 424 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 1: and were warning that they would do it themselves if 425 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 1: he didn't, and he wouldn't because he thought the better 426 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 1: way to get at the nuclear program, which is what 427 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 1: we were focused on, was through very muscular diplomacy backed 428 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: up by very very strong sanctions that we rallied the 429 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: world to put in place, and then we got the 430 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 1: Iran Nuclear Agreement. In the days after the October seventh 431 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 1: attack on Israel, the horrific attack on Israel by Hamas, 432 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 1: the Israelis were insisting that in the north Hezbolah from 433 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 1: Lebanon was about to attack and they wanted to strike 434 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: preemptively against Hezbolah. And President Biden said, look, well, we're 435 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: with you, will always be with you in defending Israel 436 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: and if you're attacked, were there, but we're not there 437 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 1: if you're going to start something, And we came within 438 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: about thirty minutes of having a war in the North 439 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: based on bad information that the Israelis had about an 440 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: imminent attack from Hezbolah. We were able to avert that, 441 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,200 Speaker 1: but the President Biden was very insistent, We're not going 442 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 1: to do something that you initiate, that you start. It's 443 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 1: very different than defending Israel one it's been attacked. I 444 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 1: can't speak to what the dynamic was this time. I 445 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,360 Speaker 1: heard that. Then it was walked back. The President said 446 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 1: it was the other way around. There's been a shifting rationale, 447 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 1: a shifting explanation for why this, why now? And again 448 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,920 Speaker 1: that's why it's so important to have ideally laid this 449 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: out before the American people and our partners and allies. 450 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 1: We might have had less friction with them if there 451 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 1: was a compelling case to be made to make sure 452 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 1: that we laid that out in advance and had them 453 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: with us on the takeoff, not mid flight or on 454 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:18,119 Speaker 1: the landing. 455 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 2: You have faced protesters when you've given speeches. I remember 456 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 2: there was an interruption in the press briefing room at 457 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 2: the State Department when you were giving remarks, and the 458 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 2: criticism you faced has been you and the administration. The 459 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,640 Speaker 2: Bide administration effectively gave cover to Israel and Prime Minister 460 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 2: and Yahoo for them to prosecute the war that they 461 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:40,240 Speaker 2: prosecuted in gods that led to seventy five thousand people dying. 462 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 2: In hindsight, do you regret not exerting more pressure on 463 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 2: or trying to do more to constrain Yes, Israel, but 464 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 2: principally the Prime Minister in that war. 465 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 1: Look, David, when there's been such terrible loss, such terrible suffering, 466 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 1: when so many innocent people Alastaini, men, women and children 467 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 1: lost their lives, You're always going to ask yourself. I 468 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 1: always ask myself, could we should we have done something different? 469 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 1: And we had to make judgments in the moment to 470 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:15,159 Speaker 1: try to achieve a number of objectives, and in a 471 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: way I should. I should really start with where we ended, 472 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 1: which is we ended with a ceasefire that we handed 473 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 1: off to the Trump administration. We ended with the hostages 474 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,399 Speaker 1: coming out, prisoners being released from Israeli jails, tens of 475 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: thousands of trucks going into Gaza, I wish that. 476 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 2: Was a mutual achievement between the BID and the Trump. 477 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,320 Speaker 1: Well, I think it was. It was largely President Biden's, 478 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,400 Speaker 1: but I'm very thankful for the role that Steve wood 479 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: Cooff in particular played and supporting that in the moment, 480 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: and that's what we were able to hand off and 481 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 1: then in that in that agreement, in the ceasefire agreement, 482 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:48,320 Speaker 1: it was it was for six weeks, and during those 483 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: six weeks, the notion was that the parties would negotiate 484 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 1: the terms of an enduring ceasefire. That didn't happen. They 485 00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 1: went back to war, and then finally President eight or 486 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 1: nine months later landed the currencies fire. But do I 487 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 1: wish that we could have gotten that sooner with less suffering. Absolutely, 488 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: But there were a lot of things that were going 489 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 1: on that we had to factor in. One was we 490 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,160 Speaker 1: were trying, obviously to make sure that October seventh could 491 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,639 Speaker 1: never happen again. And October seventh was almost written off 492 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,000 Speaker 1: immediately by much of the world, starting practically on October eighth, 493 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,120 Speaker 1: and you had to traumatize Israeli society, and then now 494 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 1: you've had a traumatized Palestinian broader society from October athon, 495 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,360 Speaker 1: but we wanted to make sure that couldn't happen again. 496 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 1: We wanted to avert a wider war which would have 497 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: caused even more death, destruction and suffering and probably would 498 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 1: have prolonged Gaza even more. And so that meant making sure, 499 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: among other things, that there was a strong deterrent in place, 500 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,439 Speaker 1: including Israel's deterrent. To say it would be aggressors who 501 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 1: were prepared to jump in pile in because they thought 502 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 1: Israel was down, if not out, has Bollah, Iran, the Huthis, etc. 503 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: Don't do it, and so we had to preserve Israel's 504 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 1: de turn we wanted to get. We thought the best 505 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 1: way to end this was through the deal that we 506 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 1: ultimately got, the sees fire and hostage deal. But part 507 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 1: of the problem was part of the challenge was that 508 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 1: Hamas was constantly strong arming things because of two factors. One, 509 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: it thought the cavalry was eventually going to come to 510 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 1: the rescue the Iranians has Belah, et cetera. And until 511 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 1: it was clear, and that didn't happen until really September 512 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:33,200 Speaker 1: of twenty twenty four, with the death of Nasralla, with 513 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 1: other leaders who were taken out by the Israelis with 514 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 1: the decimation, if not well or diminishment at least of 515 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:47,920 Speaker 1: hesblat self. That wasn't clear till then, and that notion 516 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 1: of the cavalry company the rescue was still there. The 517 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 1: second thing that was really problematic was that, and we 518 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 1: know this from all the information we had, Hamas was 519 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 1: looking for any gaps between us in Israel and Israel's 520 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,480 Speaker 1: other supporters, and as soon as they saw something emerge, 521 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 1: they would step back. So in public it was critical 522 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 1: that we preserve as much solidarity as possible, even as 523 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,879 Speaker 1: in private we were hammering them every single day on 524 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:22,399 Speaker 1: humanitterran assistance for Palestinian people, on civilian casualties, and of 525 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 1: course they were operating in a unique environment where Hamas 526 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:31,399 Speaker 1: was hiding among and below all of the civilian infrastructure 527 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 1: and civilians themselves in schools and mosque and hospitals. That 528 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 1: doesn't excuse some of the actions that Israel took in 529 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: trying to get at Hamas, not at Palestinians, but it 530 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 1: is necessary to understand that that was part of the environment. 531 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,200 Speaker 1: I also think, at the end of the day, this 532 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 1: is just my judgment and I may be wrong. That 533 00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 1: this was perceived in Israel among the vast majority of 534 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 1: the population, not just Prime Netnyaho people in his government, 535 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,680 Speaker 1: but the vast majority of the population, including many who 536 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 1: don't like him at all, to be an existential matter, 537 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: and irrespective of what we did or anyone else did, 538 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 1: they were likely to continue with or without us. So 539 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:18,960 Speaker 1: for us, it was how do we try, how do 540 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 1: we bring this to an end as quickly and effectively 541 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 1: as possible, again making sure that it's not likely to 542 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: happen again, averting a wider war, and all the while 543 00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 1: trying to look out for people who are caught in 544 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:32,560 Speaker 1: this horrific crossfire. 545 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:34,920 Speaker 2: Is it wrong to look at this as a continuum 546 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 2: that Prime Minister Netnya, who's able to prosecute the war 547 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 2: in the way in which he wanted, that led him 548 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 2: to feel them bold enough to take these strikes in 549 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 2: concert with the United States. 550 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 1: Certainly there's a profound connection there, because I think in 551 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 1: the past he has probably been reluctant to go at 552 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 1: Iran directly because of the threat of retaliation a response 553 00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 1: from Hesbolah, but with Hesbolah vastly to Mintic, even though 554 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 1: they did respond not in such a significant way, and 555 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 1: by the way, something truly remarkable. The president, the Prime 556 00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 1: Minister of Lebanon denounced Hesbolov for getting into this and 557 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 1: firing it at Israel. That's remarkable. But for sure, I 558 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 1: think the Israeli is Yes, we're in a position where 559 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,960 Speaker 1: something they hesitated to do in the past, that is 560 00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 1: direct confrontation with Iran because of the likelihood that others 561 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 1: would get in and go at them, that was taken 562 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 1: away and that did open the door to them doing 563 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 1: what they've done. 564 00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 2: I want to wrap up with where this leaves us, 565 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 2: where this leaves the world. And Prime Minister Mark Karney 566 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 2: of Canada spoke recently and he said this is just 567 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,400 Speaker 2: another example of what he's talked about before, this rupture 568 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 2: in the global order that that's happened on two counts here. 569 00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 2: There have been two failures. The first of which was 570 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 2: the multilateral institutions that we've relied on weren't able to 571 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 2: constrain Iran effectively. 572 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 1: That's one. 573 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 2: The second is you have the US and Israel now 574 00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 2: going it together without the consent of the UN or 575 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 2: other multi latteral institute. Do you agree with him as 576 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 2: he talks about the way that that hegemony. The global 577 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,520 Speaker 2: order has changed. Look, we're very much at an inflection 578 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 2: point in. 579 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 1: The global order, in the rules based order that we 580 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 1: spent eighty years building up, and that was premised on 581 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 1: one I think profound insight, and that was enlightened self interest, 582 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 1: the notion that the success and strength of others would 583 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 1: be our own as well, and we were able to 584 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 1: build a system that avoided other countries ganging up against us, 585 00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 1: as is usually the case when one country rises above 586 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,840 Speaker 1: the others. We had new markets for all the stuff 587 00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 1: we wanted to sell. We had new partners to deal 588 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 1: with different conflicts, different problems. We had new allies to 589 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:50,800 Speaker 1: deter aggression, especially with NATO. And now that system is 590 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,440 Speaker 1: being put in for now at least in the dust 591 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,880 Speaker 1: bin and being replaced with They're different versions of this. 592 00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,600 Speaker 1: Some people believe that the president's engaged in going back 593 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:01,960 Speaker 1: to a spheres of influenced world where the Russians do 594 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 1: what they want and they're part of the world, The 595 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,120 Speaker 1: Chinese do what they want, except maybe on the economic 596 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: issues in their part, and we do what we want 597 00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,480 Speaker 1: to do in our part, particularly in the Western hemisphere. 598 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,680 Speaker 1: And then you've got these problematic areas that are dealt 599 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 1: with by force. That's a profound thing, and that's what's 600 00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 1: happening now. But I think at the same time, and 601 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:31,200 Speaker 1: this is what's maybe most frustrating of all in the 602 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:36,760 Speaker 1: Middle East, is that there's also an extraordinary opportunity, if 603 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 1: very big, if this does produce some kind of real 604 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,680 Speaker 1: change in Iran, then you have the prospect of a 605 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 1: region that heads in a very different direction, that is 606 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:52,920 Speaker 1: integrated with its people, it's moving back and forth, it's 607 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 1: economies integrated, greater success, greater prosperity for folks. But there 608 00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 1: remains one cat to that vision besides how Iran resolves, 609 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:07,479 Speaker 1: and that's the question of Israelis and Palestinians. The truly 610 00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:12,080 Speaker 1: big vision right now would be to actually resolve that question, 611 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 1: not to try to put it under the rug. Yet. Again, 612 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 1: the bottom line is this, there are roughly seven million 613 00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 1: Jews in Israel, They're about two million Arabs, five million 614 00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 1: Palestinians between the West Bank and Gaza. No one is 615 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,880 Speaker 1: going anywhere, despite the efforts of some on both sides 616 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,440 Speaker 1: to make that happen. And so tell me how this ends. 617 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 1: I don't see how this ends without some kind of 618 00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:42,680 Speaker 1: genuine political accommodation that realizes the rights of Palestinians. This 619 00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 1: is the moment for that big vision because that brings 620 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 1: with it something incredibly powerful, normalization of relations between Israel 621 00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,920 Speaker 1: and Saudi Arabia, and then potentially other countries will follow suit, 622 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:54,080 Speaker 1: from Cutter to Indonesia. And then if the Iranian problem 623 00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 1: is diminished and Iran really has to face a choice 624 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 1: between being a pariah gadfly or mending its ways, I 625 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 1: think that's the most likely way we're actually going to 626 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:11,239 Speaker 1: see real change. Unfortunately, tragically, given the trauma on all 627 00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 1: sides after October seventh, on the Israeli side and among Palestinians, 628 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,080 Speaker 1: it's awfully hard to get there. But that's where you 629 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 1: need people of vision to try to move things in 630 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,840 Speaker 1: that direction. There is actually an opportunity to do that. 631 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,680 Speaker 1: I worry that that opportunity will not be will not 632 00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 1: be seized, and we're going to just see a continuation 633 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:34,879 Speaker 1: among Israelis and Palestinians and also Iran is again likely 634 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,319 Speaker 1: in this moment, if I had to bet again, we're 635 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,920 Speaker 1: replacing one Iatola for another, and the nature of the 636 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 1: regime in this moment doesn't seem likely to change. I hope, 637 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,480 Speaker 1: I'm pleasantly surprised and the Iranians get the leadership that 638 00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,040 Speaker 1: they deserve. But the jury's very much out on that. 639 00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,879 Speaker 2: Something you warned about during your tenure Secretary of State 640 00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 2: was the role that China could play in subverting or 641 00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:58,080 Speaker 2: reinventing the international order. How do you think about that 642 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,880 Speaker 2: now in this moment, Well, you know, s reporse a vacuum. 643 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 1: If we're disengaged, if we're not leading in the effort 644 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:09,120 Speaker 1: to shape that order, then China's going to fill the void. 645 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:14,400 Speaker 1: I'll give you one example. At the during the Biden administration, 646 00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:17,880 Speaker 1: the President took the lead in working with all of 647 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:23,960 Speaker 1: the frontier AI companies on getting voluntary commitments on safety 648 00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,520 Speaker 1: and security for these AI artificial intelligence products that were 649 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,160 Speaker 1: being rolled out, to make sure that they were adequately tested, 650 00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 1: that there was transparency, and that the guardrails were put 651 00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:35,759 Speaker 1: in against the misuse. For abuse is something that has 652 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 1: such extraordinary positive potential but also has real potential downsides. 653 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,680 Speaker 1: And then we took that around the world and we 654 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,719 Speaker 1: got the G seven to endorse it. We went to 655 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,200 Speaker 1: the United Nations, we got the first resolution ever on 656 00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,759 Speaker 1: artificial intelligence from the entire United Nations. We were leading 657 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,080 Speaker 1: the effort to carry AI forward in a way that 658 00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:58,280 Speaker 1: would be that would conform to our norms and basically 659 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,440 Speaker 1: have them adopted by the world. Then the administration got 660 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 1: out of that business and said, no, it's just the 661 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,320 Speaker 1: wild West, and it's too important that our companies be 662 00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 1: able to do whatever they want to do whenever they 663 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:09,440 Speaker 1: want to do it, however they want to do it, 664 00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,040 Speaker 1: because the competition with China is what matters the most. 665 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 1: But who picked up the banner on AI safety and security? 666 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,960 Speaker 1: China did. There was a conference in Shanghai. Many of 667 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,600 Speaker 1: the other AI players from the United Kingdom to Singapore 668 00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:23,600 Speaker 1: or to others were there. And China may be the 669 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 1: one that's shaping some of these norms and rules, but 670 00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,719 Speaker 1: it's liking not to ours. So you know, there's a 671 00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,319 Speaker 1: as I've seen it again and again and again, if 672 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,680 Speaker 1: we're disengaged, if we're not leading, then either someone else is, 673 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 1: and most likely that's going to be China or no 674 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:39,960 Speaker 1: one else is, and then you're going to have a 675 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 1: vacuum is filled by bad things before it's filled with 676 00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,800 Speaker 1: good things. The flip side of that coin, David is 677 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,320 Speaker 1: We've got to be doing it with allies and partners. 678 00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:51,800 Speaker 1: We need in all of these problem areas to be 679 00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,880 Speaker 1: working in concert, whether it's dealing with the problems that 680 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,760 Speaker 1: China poses. Were much stronger when we're allied and partner 681 00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,080 Speaker 1: we successfully align countries around the world in dealing with 682 00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:05,120 Speaker 1: some of the challenges the China post economically and on technology. 683 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,120 Speaker 1: When dealing with China loan we're twenty or twenty five 684 00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 1: percent of world GDP. When we're aligned with the Europeans, 685 00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:14,640 Speaker 1: with Japan, Korea, India, we're suddenly fifty or sixty percent. 686 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:19,000 Speaker 1: That's a lot harder, bigger weight that China has to 687 00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:23,399 Speaker 1: account for. And what I worry now is that as 688 00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:25,759 Speaker 1: a result of so many of the decisions that the 689 00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:30,520 Speaker 1: administration has taken that have alienated allies and partners that 690 00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:34,640 Speaker 1: have treated them worse than our adversaries, we're heading to 691 00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:37,680 Speaker 1: a world where as much as these other countries want 692 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,239 Speaker 1: to work with us, they are looking for ways to 693 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,560 Speaker 1: work around us to make sure that they're never caught 694 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:47,000 Speaker 1: in this position again where the United States can bully 695 00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,960 Speaker 1: them into doing something it wants and they don't want. 696 00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,319 Speaker 1: Seventy percent of Germans in a poll the other day 697 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,120 Speaker 1: said said they see the United States as an adversary. 698 00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:03,759 Speaker 1: Sixteen percent of Europeans now see US not as a 699 00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,360 Speaker 1: friendly country. Similar numbers when it comes to Canada and Mexico, 700 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:11,160 Speaker 1: similar numbers when it comes to South Korea, Japan. That's 701 00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:12,799 Speaker 1: not going to be a good world for the United 702 00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:16,440 Speaker 1: States in the first instance. Yes, someone might take a 703 00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,239 Speaker 1: knee because they have no choice, but then they're going 704 00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:20,880 Speaker 1: to make sure that they do everything possible not to 705 00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,600 Speaker 1: put themselves in that position again where the United States, 706 00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,680 Speaker 1: where the tariff can hammer them into doing something that's 707 00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:30,319 Speaker 1: not in their interest. Their limits to that the US 708 00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:35,480 Speaker 1: financial system is so central and so strong that their 709 00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:37,440 Speaker 1: limits to how far you can work away from or 710 00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,480 Speaker 1: around the United States. But that's what we're seeing, and 711 00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,680 Speaker 1: that's not a world, in my judgment, that's in our interest. 712 00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:48,719 Speaker 2: Last question is what this war and around means for 713 00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,600 Speaker 2: President Trump's other ambitions, be that Cuba, be that Greenland, 714 00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,239 Speaker 2: continued project in Venezuela. How do you think about what 715 00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:57,360 Speaker 2: this mayriorment not lead to. 716 00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,239 Speaker 1: Well, in some ways, Around's the outlier, because these other 717 00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:05,319 Speaker 1: areas that you just mentioned are all within what would 718 00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:07,279 Speaker 1: be our so called sphere of influence. And that's why 719 00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:10,960 Speaker 1: I said, you know before, what we're seeing is at 720 00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:13,279 Speaker 1: least is one of the shifts I think we're seeing 721 00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,160 Speaker 1: is the President seems to see the world in terms 722 00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:18,640 Speaker 1: of these spheres of influence, and anything within our sphere 723 00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,600 Speaker 1: we should, in one way or another control, And there's 724 00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:23,760 Speaker 1: kind of a very nineteenth century view that actually controlling 725 00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:28,520 Speaker 1: the territory is the most most important thing, never mind 726 00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,080 Speaker 1: that there's absolutely no need to do that. I mean, 727 00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:34,759 Speaker 1: in the case of Greenland, simply asking would have gotten 728 00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:37,880 Speaker 1: the right answer in terms of putting more military forces 729 00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,920 Speaker 1: there or striking deals on their raw materials. But that 730 00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:45,360 Speaker 1: world is spheres of influence world where the big guys 731 00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,920 Speaker 1: on the block, and it is guys in this view, 732 00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,000 Speaker 1: get to do what they want in their area. That's 733 00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,400 Speaker 1: the way things were for much of the latter part 734 00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:56,000 Speaker 1: of the nineteenth century. But it didn't end well. We 735 00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:58,880 Speaker 1: ultimately end up with World War One. What happens, the 736 00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,640 Speaker 1: big countries always want more elbow room, and so they 737 00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:03,880 Speaker 1: rub up against the other the other sphere, and that 738 00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:07,160 Speaker 1: produces conflict the smaller countries within a sphere, they get 739 00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:08,680 Speaker 1: to a point where they don't like it, and they 740 00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:12,279 Speaker 1: band together and try to build their own strength to 741 00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:16,880 Speaker 1: take on the hegemon the people within the country exerting 742 00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:23,800 Speaker 1: that hegemony. Typically it's in non democratic countries. They conclude 743 00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:25,279 Speaker 1: that this is not the life that I want to live, 744 00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,560 Speaker 1: and rebel against it. And then if you have a 745 00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:31,000 Speaker 1: system where you've got these these spheres of influence, and 746 00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:33,120 Speaker 1: one of these shares is controlled by a democracy like 747 00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,520 Speaker 1: the United States, and the others are controlled by autocracies, 748 00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,280 Speaker 1: the autocracies, at the end of the day, can't abide 749 00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:44,000 Speaker 1: the success of democracies because in a world of instantaneous communications, 750 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:47,200 Speaker 1: their people get to see what's happening and conclude, oh, 751 00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:50,319 Speaker 1: life looks a lot better there, And so they that's 752 00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:52,719 Speaker 1: going to be a constant incentive for them to try 753 00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,800 Speaker 1: to take us down, pull us down by meddling in 754 00:40:55,880 --> 00:41:01,160 Speaker 1: our elections, by trying to foment societal conflict. Except so, 755 00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:06,279 Speaker 1: that is not a recipe as I see it, for 756 00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:09,800 Speaker 1: a world of peace, for a world devoid of conflict, 757 00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,800 Speaker 1: for a world in which the United States can do 758 00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:15,440 Speaker 1: everything that it needs to do to be successful. One 759 00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:18,840 Speaker 1: last thing is this, As much as I'm concerned about 760 00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:23,799 Speaker 1: the diminishment of our alliances and our partnerships, the moving 761 00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:29,040 Speaker 1: away from enlightened self interest, the move toward shies of influence, 762 00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:34,320 Speaker 1: or some people have talked about building empire. I'm equally concerned, David, 763 00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,760 Speaker 1: with another alliance that's been shattered, and that's an internal alliance. 764 00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:42,719 Speaker 1: When we started the twentieth century, there was not a 765 00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,399 Speaker 1: major pursuit of science in which the United States led 766 00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,319 Speaker 1: the world. By the time we got to the twenty 767 00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:49,840 Speaker 1: first century, there was not a major pursuit in science 768 00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,439 Speaker 1: and technology where the United States did not lead the world. 769 00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,160 Speaker 1: That didn't happen by accident. It happened because we built 770 00:41:55,160 --> 00:42:00,440 Speaker 1: an alliance between the federal government, universities, research institutions, national labs. 771 00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,920 Speaker 1: The amount of GDP that we dedicated to research and 772 00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,399 Speaker 1: development went from about one and a half percent after 773 00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,080 Speaker 1: World War II to by the time President Biden left office, 774 00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:13,160 Speaker 1: three and a half percent, and that produced extraordinary innovation. 775 00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,760 Speaker 1: Coupled with this welcome mat for the best and brightest 776 00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,719 Speaker 1: from around the world who would do their studies here, 777 00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:23,400 Speaker 1: Attracted by being with the best and brightest and an 778 00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:27,920 Speaker 1: open system. Then they stayed around and created things that 779 00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:30,319 Speaker 1: made us a leader in all of these fields, which 780 00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,880 Speaker 1: redounded to our economy and redounded to our national security. 781 00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,759 Speaker 1: As that system is being blown up, I think that 782 00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:41,440 Speaker 1: may be the biggest threat of all to sustaining America's 783 00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,800 Speaker 1: place of strength, of leadership and power. I'm gratified that 784 00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,320 Speaker 1: the Congress has resisted a number of these cuts that 785 00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,280 Speaker 1: the administration has been pushing, but a lot of damage 786 00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:55,080 Speaker 1: has been has been done. You know, when Mark Zuckerberg 787 00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:57,520 Speaker 1: was trying to hire the best AI talent in the country, 788 00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:01,040 Speaker 1: what about nine or ten months ago, taking it from 789 00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,919 Speaker 1: other companies in the United States, there was a first 790 00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:09,000 Speaker 1: group of eleven people who he brought on board his ship. 791 00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,160 Speaker 1: And I looked at the list of eleven people and 792 00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,160 Speaker 1: it was kind of striking, and I checked into it 793 00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:16,879 Speaker 1: to see if I was right, and indeed, yes, every 794 00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:21,440 Speaker 1: single one of those was an immigrant, attracted again by 795 00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,760 Speaker 1: the system that we had put in place to attract 796 00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:26,880 Speaker 1: the best and vice to fund the work that they 797 00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:30,160 Speaker 1: were doing to the benefit of our companies, of our people, 798 00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:34,359 Speaker 1: of our country. If we lose that, we lose a lot. 799 00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:36,239 Speaker 2: Mister Secretary, thank you very much. 800 00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:37,279 Speaker 1: Great to be with you.