1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,120 Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome to another episode of the Buck Sexton Show, 2 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: a deep dive on all things China right now. And 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: for that we have the perfect guest, Gordon Chang. He's 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: the author of the Coming Collapse of China as well 5 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:19,479 Speaker 1: as the Great US China Tech War. He's a great 6 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: following on Twitter as well. Gordon G. Chang, Gordon, my friend. 7 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:24,800 Speaker 1: Good to have you back, sir, good to see him. 8 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Buck. This will be fun. So 9 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 1: the biggest news right now with regard to China is 10 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: and something that came up of the weekend, how worried 11 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: should we be about Chinese military support to Russia in 12 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 1: the Ukraine War? And I want to dive into what 13 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: that could look like. But what do you see it 14 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 1: as right now? Gordon? China has been supplying military assistance 15 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: from the very beginning of this war, Buck, But China 16 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: has picked up the pace now. The Breaking Defense website 17 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 1: report that almost every day and antonov An one twenty four, 18 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: which is the biggest cargo plane in the world, leaves 19 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: Jung Joe, which is in central China, and it goes 20 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 1: to Russia. It turns off its transpounder when it leaves. 21 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: I mean it's carrying ammunition and other high consumption rate items. 22 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 1: This follows reports that China has been selling drones, so 23 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: the Wagner Group, for use in Ukraine, and from the 24 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:30,400 Speaker 1: get go in this war, China has been feeding location 25 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:35,119 Speaker 1: data to the Russians. The Ukrainian drone operators were using 26 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: products made in China. That means that China knew the 27 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: location of the Ukrainians. China was sending that over to Russia, 28 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: and then Russia was taking out the Ukrainians. That's military assistance. 29 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: Now we have a series of statements from Jake Sullivan, 30 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: the National Security Advisor and others saying, oh, we think 31 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: China is contemplating supplying lethal assistance to Russia. Well, they've 32 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: already been doing so for quite some time. And I 33 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: think that they owe us an explanation why they think 34 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 1: that all of these reports are untrue, because obviously we 35 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: are hearing information contradicting what the administration is publicly telling 36 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,359 Speaker 1: the world and the American people. Is there a concern, Gordon? 37 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:20,959 Speaker 1: I mean, as you just laid out, there's already military 38 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: support that has been going from day one from China 39 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 1: to Russia. But is it possible in your mind that 40 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,959 Speaker 1: there could be an escalation even on top of that 41 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 1: from Shijinping to provide either just greater amounts of what's 42 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:40,079 Speaker 1: already there, or perhaps more advanced weaponry or even Chinese 43 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 1: training on certain specific systems. There always can be a 44 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 1: ramp up in assistance. And one of the explanations that 45 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: I have just guessing, because all I'm doing is speculating, 46 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: is that the administration doesn't want to acknowledge the lethal 47 00:02:56,440 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: assistance because it's still trying to work with China to 48 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 1: keep that assistance to the bare minimum. And maybe people 49 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 1: in the administration think that if they publicly confront China 50 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: that Beijing will increase what it sends over to the Russians. 51 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: I don't know. That's not a good strategy. It's not working, 52 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:22,920 Speaker 1: and I think that it just misunderstands the Chinese way 53 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 1: of thinking. We have a lot of policies but that 54 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: sound good to the ear like they should work. But 55 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: for decades we've been applying these policies and we now 56 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: have disastrous results, which means obviously we've got to try 57 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: something new because what we've been doing ain't working. What 58 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: is the Chinese interest in Ukraine and in the Ukraine 59 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: Russia conflict and what are they hoping to achieve as 60 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: their strategic objectives. Again, we have to speculate because I 61 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 1: think that ultimately what they're doing is counter productive. But 62 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: obviously they see themselves on the same page with Vladimir Putin. 63 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 1: Ciejum Ping and Putin, they view the world in the 64 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: same terms. They identify the same enemy, which is us, 65 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: and I think Siejumping finds Putin to be very useful 66 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: because he's willing to go out and really put us 67 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 1: on the back foot. You know, the more that we 68 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: expend resources in Ukraine, the fewer resources we have to 69 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: defend our friends and allies in East Asia. So that's 70 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: part of it as well. We're being bled and we're 71 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 1: being distracted. Now I think we need to be in 72 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 1: Ukraine because the best way to deter China over Taiwan 73 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: for instances, to make sure that Putin losers in Ukraine. 74 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 1: But the point is we are being bled and the Chinese, 75 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: I think, enjoy watching this. What is the what is 76 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: your response to the assessments that are out there now 77 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: from people that there is just a growing Russia China 78 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,359 Speaker 1: Iran axis. You know it harkens back to the Axis 79 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: of Evil speech of the Bush administration many years ago 80 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 1: with Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Now it's much bigger, 81 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,480 Speaker 1: much more important countries that people are tying together. What 82 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 1: do you make of that. I think that's absolutely right, 83 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: and I think that we have to add North Korea 84 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: and perhaps add a country like Algeria. So you put 85 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: together a lot of these countries in the world's dividing 86 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 1: into camps. President Biden doesn't want to acknowledge that, but 87 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: it's playing to see. And if you don't acknowledge reality, 88 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 1: you can't deal with reality. So, yeah, the world is dividing, 89 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: and it is a Cold war, and it's a I think, 90 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 1: far more dangerous period than the Cold War. You know, 91 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: people say, oh, you know, nineteen sixty two Cuban missile 92 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 1: crisis the most dangerous moment in history. I could argue 93 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 1: in say nineteen sixty one, the Checkpoint Charlie crisis in 94 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: Berlin was perhaps even more dangerous. But the point is, 95 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 1: we know from the archives but that neither Khrushchoff nor 96 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: Kennedy were willing to use nuclear weapons. We don't know 97 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: that about Vladimir Putin. We don't even know that about 98 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: sejun Ping, and I think that makes this the most 99 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:25,360 Speaker 1: dangerous moment in history. And because you've got that large 100 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: camp on the other side, there might be willing to 101 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: use nukes. It's just we're not comprehending the possibilities. Are 102 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: there areas of friction between Putin and She that US 103 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: policy or just US action could exploit. I mean, how 104 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: can you make them less cozy together so they're less 105 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,280 Speaker 1: of a threat to the world order as we know it. 106 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: I think that it's theoretically possible, but as a practical matter, 107 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: it is not. These two just believe that they find 108 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: advantage in each other's arms. And I don't think that 109 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: there's anything, as a practical matter, we could do to 110 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: separate them, except to perhaps bring down Russia. We do that, 111 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: We drive it out of Ukraine. Yeah, we end that partnership. 112 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: And you know, people will say that's extraordinarily dangerous, and 113 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: I say, saying something is dangerous is not a meaningful objection, 114 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 1: because out of three decades of truly misguided Russia policy 115 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 1: in China policy, we have created an extremely perilous situation. 116 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: There are no safe options, and the most dangerous option 117 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: of all is continuing with the policies that created this 118 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: disaster in the first place. So we're going to have 119 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: to think about, you know, the world in very different 120 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: terms and realize that it is perilous. 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But the Geeza 145 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 1: Dream Sheets twenty out of ninety nine. Get yourself some 146 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:05,959 Speaker 1: new sheets. You probably need some new sheets at home. 147 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: My pillow dot com promo code b U C K Gordon, China, Taiwan. 148 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: Let's start with this. Is China, after seeing the situation 149 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: in Ukraine, less likely to invade in we'll say a 150 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: five year timetable because they see all the trouble that Ukraine, 151 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: that Russia has had in Ukraine, or more likely because 152 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: they feel the US is distracted and doesn't have the 153 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 1: stomach for a fight. In addition, on the Eastern Front, 154 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: so to speak. I think that this is just guessing, 155 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 1: but I think China is less deterred than it was before. Now. 156 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 1: William Burns, the CIA Director, a couple of days ago 157 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: actually said that China is more to seeing Russia's problems 158 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: in Ukraine, and the Chinese, we know, are looking very 159 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 1: closely at Russia's experience. But you got to remember, you know, 160 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 1: the happy talk in Washington is the heroic resistance of 161 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: the Ukrainian people have convinced the Chinese not to invade 162 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: Taiwan because they worried about similar resistance. And you know, 163 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: I think there's something to that, But we got to 164 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 1: look at the rest of the situation, and that is 165 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: there was a failure of deterrence. In twenty twenty two. 166 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:39,559 Speaker 1: We saw the coalition that was a raid against Russian, 167 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 1: the United States, the twenty seven nations of the European Union, 168 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 1: in Great Britain had an economy twenty five point one 169 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:51,679 Speaker 1: times larger than Russia's in twenty twenty one, and yet 170 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 1: we failed to stop the Russian invasion. That is, i 171 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:02,440 Speaker 1: perhaps the biggest failure of deterrence since the Second World War. 172 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 1: And I think China's seen that. I think that that 173 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 1: reinforces the notion in Chinese minds that they as Siejumping's 174 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: favorite phrases, the East is rising and the West is declining. 175 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: And c has actually thought for a very long time. 176 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: The United States is in terminal decline, so he sees 177 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 1: the failure of deterrence. He sees the United States not 178 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: still being deterred by Russia because we're not supplying the 179 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: assistance that Ukraine needs to win. And he can sees 180 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: that the threats to use nuclear weapons have prevented the 181 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 1: West from actually coming to the aid of Ukraine in 182 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 1: the way that we need to. So you put all 183 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 1: that together, and I think on balance, the Chinese believe 184 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 1: that they've got a bigger, bigger green light to invade. 185 00:11:55,400 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 1: We don't know how formidable gordon are the Taiwanese fence 186 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:05,599 Speaker 1: forces in the face of a possible Chinese full scale invasion, 187 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: and also what would it take to get well, let's 188 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: I want to ask about Japan as well, but let's 189 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 1: just start with how does Taiwan stack up against those 190 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: initial critical days of Chinese forces in an amphibious landing, 191 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: crossing the Straits and invading Taiwan doesn't stack up very 192 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 1: well because it has the wrong types of weapons, and 193 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: that's the fault of some taiwan general officers who asked 194 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: to buy the wrong things. And it's also the fault 195 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: of the Pentagon for pushing on Taiwan some of the 196 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 1: wrong weapons. Taiwan needs cruise missiles and it also needs submarines, 197 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 1: and we have not been willing to sell them submarines. 198 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: We've been slow walking arms sales, as Representative Gallagher said 199 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 1: after he just reached learned from Taiwan. So you know, 200 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: Ukraine needs F sixteens, but I don't think Taiwan needs 201 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 1: F sixteens because there's gonna be no airfield left in Taiwan. 202 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 1: You know, after the first couple hours of a Chinese bombardment, 203 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: we're not going to have any air fields left in 204 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 1: the region either. But that's another story. The point is 205 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 1: that Taiwan can maybe stop the Chinese for a little while, 206 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: but they're going to need help from their friends. Gordon, 207 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,839 Speaker 1: you raise something I think is important for people to know. 208 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 1: There may be this conception of a Chinese invasion of 209 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 1: Taiwan looks like some you know, obviously massive air aerial 210 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: strikes beforehand to try to soften up the target, the 211 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: island of Taiwan, and then naval flotilla, amphibious landing craft 212 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 1: and they just try to occupy and overrun the forces. 213 00:13:57,200 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 1: But you seem to indicate it could be a lot 214 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: broader than that. What does if you were to invasion 215 00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: and I know, look, the Pentagon does war gaming all 216 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 1: the time, whether the right or wrong. They don't know 217 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: until the bullets start flying, right, if you were war gaming, 218 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would look like. What 219 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 1: happens in those first we'll call those first seventy two hours. 220 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: First of all, I think that maybe for six months 221 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 1: we don't know that an invasion has started, because a 222 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: Chinese invasion of Taiwan may not start with war in 223 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 1: space or you know, a massive aerial bombardment of Taiwan. 224 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: It can start with this, the dissemination of a pathogen 225 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 1: in Taiwan, you know, just weakened Taiwan's ability to defend 226 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: itself with the disease. You know, we've got a lot 227 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: of smart American war planners who say, oh, don't worry 228 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: about all this. We know, you know, we'll have months 229 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 1: of notice of an invasion. I'm not sure that that's 230 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: the case, because, you know, we got American war planners 231 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: who assume that Chinese war planners think like American war planners, 232 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 1: and so I don't know If that's the case, I 233 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: think that we could very well have this long period. 234 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: It's sort of prepping the battlefield, so to speak. We 235 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: could have sabotage events throughout Taiwan which people may not know, 236 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: or sabotage you know, derailments, chemical fires, all the rest 237 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: of it, the stuff we see in the US for instance. 238 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: So first, the first moments of a war may not 239 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: be evident for quite some time. But when it really 240 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: goes kinnectic, I think we're going to see a lot 241 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 1: of our assets in space taken down. We'll see a 242 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: bombardment of Okinawa and Guam. We'll see a naval blockade 243 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: which includes sovereign Japanese islands, because remember the island of 244 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: Yanagumi is actually south of Taipei, and for Chinese and 245 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,239 Speaker 1: Asian to be successful, they've got to have a blockade. 246 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: For a blockade to be successful, it's got to include 247 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 1: Janagumi and other Japanese islands. So this gets really ugly 248 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 1: really fast. And one other thing, buck sorry for going on, 249 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: but well, go on, go on. The first kinetic element 250 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: of a Chinese attack could be the use of tactical 251 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. I mean, everyone says how hard it is 252 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: to have a cross straits invasion, you'd have to have 253 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 1: combined land air sea operations, which the Chinese have never 254 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 1: done in their history. How do you avoid that, Well, 255 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: you use tactical nukes and you force in the Chinese mind, 256 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: you force everyone to back off because they don't want 257 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: to get nuked as well. Do you think there's a 258 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: chance that they would also? Are there any US assets 259 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 1: in the region that they would go for with the 260 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 1: idea that while it may be US territory, it's not 261 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 1: quite you know, it's not quite the Fifty States. Do 262 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: you think they might hit Guam? Do you think they 263 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 1: might try to go after some specific assets? Absolutely? And Okinawa. 264 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,919 Speaker 1: They've got to take out Okinawa. They cannot afford to 265 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 1: have the large US military presence there left intact. So 266 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:16,159 Speaker 1: if you're going to go after Guam, you might as 267 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: well go after American bases in Japan, and you probably 268 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: will have the North Koreans engage in some sort of 269 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:32,200 Speaker 1: provocative activity to draw off the United States. So yeah, 270 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: there's just to be clear, you could foresee or at 271 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 1: least you could find plausible. We'll put it that way. Gordon, 272 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: I'm not you know, no one can predict the future, 273 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: and that's very clear, but you know, it is important 274 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 1: to understand what the possibilities are in order to plan 275 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: for them. You could foresee a situation where a Chinese 276 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:55,719 Speaker 1: invasion of Taiwan also coincides with North Korean what just 277 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: military action, maybe not an invasion, but military action of 278 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 1: some kind strive, artillery strikes, etc. Against South Korea, absolutely, 279 00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 1: because what better way to divert the United States? And 280 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 1: so there could be all sorts of things that are occurring. 281 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: And also it could be sabotage by Chinese agents in 282 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 1: the US, which I think would probably occur pretty much 283 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: at the same time. So this is not going to 284 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,159 Speaker 1: be limited. I want to ask you about Chinese influence 285 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,200 Speaker 1: in the United States. Gordon in just a second. But 286 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,479 Speaker 1: first up here, if you're a Team Mobile subscriber out there, 287 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: they're investigating a data breach that exposed a sensitive personal 288 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: information of thirty seven million customers right after the New Year. 289 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: Cyber Hackers grab this stuff without notice. It could include 290 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: customer names, emails, building addresses, and phone numbers. 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There's 313 00:19:57,080 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 1: a lot of attention that people pay to Chinese influence 314 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 1: in this country with regard to a few things Hollywood 315 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 1: and the way that it's clear the media industrial complex here, 316 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 1: the entertainment complex in America doesn't want to offend China. 317 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: That includes occasionally professional athletes, the NBA notably not wanting 318 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: to upset Beijing. And then some tie in to Hunter Biden, 319 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 1: the son of the President of the United States, getting 320 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 1: a whole lot of money from Chinese Communist Party backed 321 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: business interests in China. I wanted you to to sort 322 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 1: of lay out for everyone in the scope of how 323 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: much from the elites on down, what kind of control 324 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: an influence operation does China have in the US. China 325 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 1: for decades has been trying to buy off elements of 326 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: the American society, and they've been extremely successful, as you've 327 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 1: been talking about. On November twenty eight, twenty twenty, after 328 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: Joe Biden was elected president, but before he took office, 329 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: a Chinese academic d dong Shong, gave a live stream 330 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 1: lecture in Shanghai got a lot of play throughout China, 331 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 1: and d talked about how China was controlling outcomes at 332 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 1: the highest levels of the American political system. He said 333 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 1: that China was able to get what it wanted up 334 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:28,920 Speaker 1: until Trump. It mentioned that the Chinese levers of influence 335 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: during the Trump administration were broken, but how China was 336 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 1: looking forward to exercising control after Biden took office, And 337 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 1: and when d talked about Hunter Biden, everybody in the 338 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,880 Speaker 1: live audience in Shanghai was snickering, so you can see 339 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 1: what the Chinese thing. Also, d said there was no 340 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: American politician who could resist China, and every American could 341 00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:00,360 Speaker 1: be bought. Now, I'm not saying that what these issessment 342 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 1: was correct. I actually think it wasn't. But the point 343 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: is that's what the Chinese think, and that shows you 344 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 1: how pervasive Chinese influence in the United States is. And 345 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: by the way, those levers of influence that Dee talked 346 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 1: about that he was exercising both before and would exercise 347 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 1: after Trump. Two things Wall Street and Henry Kissinger just 348 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: one other thing. The thing about Eric Swalwell was the Chinese. 349 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 1: And I'm not saying that he was treacherous or anything, 350 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 1: because I don't know, And I also believe that being 351 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: targeted by China's Ministry of State Security is not a sin, 352 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 1: because that means everybody in Congress would be a sinner. 353 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: But the point is that the Chinese first contact at 354 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 1: Swawell not when he was in on the House Intelligence Committee, 355 00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,879 Speaker 1: which would obviously be of great importance for China. The 356 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: first contacted him when he was on the City Council 357 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:08,400 Speaker 1: of Dublin City, California. That means that they have not 358 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 1: just one swalwell. That means they must have hundreds or 359 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 1: thousands of swallow wells. That shows you how pervasive their 360 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: operations are. So they're going for influence operations not just 361 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,400 Speaker 1: obviously at the White House level, but as you point out, 362 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 1: all the way all the way down and then on 363 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: the corporate side, because that's an area where you know, 364 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 1: whether it's Disney or Paramount Pictures or National Basketball Association. 365 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 1: Clearly companies have a sensitivity about to say, Chinese interests, 366 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 1: Chinese Communist Party dogma, right, I mean, it's not they're 367 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,719 Speaker 1: not worried about offending the man on the streets, so 368 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 1: to speak. In Beijing, they don't want to upset the 369 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 1: powers that be in China and lose access to those markets. 370 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: How much money is at stake in things like that. 371 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,399 Speaker 1: I mean, what were to happen, What would happen to 372 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: some of these companies if Shijinping said no, not you, 373 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 1: you're out. Well we're already starting to see that. Fuck 374 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 1: because ce jumping has in fact been saying that. But 375 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 1: you know, obviously the NBA would lose its entire China market. UM. 376 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 1: The Hollywood studios, UM, they already losing, you know, a 377 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: large part of the market because Beijing has been promoting 378 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,719 Speaker 1: local films, making it difficult for foreign films to be shown. 379 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:28,959 Speaker 1: But you know, Hollywood still is very much on board 380 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:33,920 Speaker 1: with UM China. UM. Fortunately the movie Maverick Top Gun 381 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:39,120 Speaker 1: UM has sort of convinced Hollywood that you don't necessarily 382 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:43,200 Speaker 1: need the Chinese market. UM. But this is not only 383 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,719 Speaker 1: this is this is a question of sijumping forcing American 384 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:50,720 Speaker 1: companies and other companies out of China. Maverick not allowed 385 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,720 Speaker 1: in China, Gordon, I didn't know that they didn't allow 386 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: that movie in Yeah, I don't think it was allowed 387 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 1: in UM. Remember the issue though, was the patches on 388 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,840 Speaker 1: the I want right, yeah, yeah, the Taiwan you know 389 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: the Taiwan message there. So really what Beijing, what Hollywood 390 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 1: was saying, was look, we don't care, We're going to 391 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,199 Speaker 1: do this, you know, where you let your film in 392 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:17,640 Speaker 1: or not. But American films have not done that well 393 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:21,920 Speaker 1: in China recently because Beijing has really started to put 394 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 1: the clamps down on them. So, yeah, they still have 395 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: a market. It's still considered to be important in Hollywood, 396 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 1: but I think it'll become less important as Beijing seeks 397 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: to really control what the Chinese people see to a 398 00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,640 Speaker 1: greater extent than they've done in the past. I want 399 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 1: to come in in just a second here and ask 400 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,000 Speaker 1: you about what's going on inside of China with in 401 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: terms of stability, political stability, the economy Hong Kong. We'll 402 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: get to that in just a second, but work from 403 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,879 Speaker 1: our sponsor here, Tunleith of Towers Foundation. 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Join me in donating eleven dollars a 421 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 1: month the Tunnel of the Towers at t twot dot org. 422 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 1: That's t the number two t dot org. Gordon. Let's 423 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,439 Speaker 1: start with Hong Kong. Remember when there were I know 424 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 1: you do but for our audience, there were all of 425 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 1: those protests and even some American flags being weighed. There 426 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:04,119 Speaker 1: was this media attention on the threat of Hong Kong 427 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 1: being essentially consumed by the Chinese Communist Party, losing its 428 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 1: special status for all intents and purposes. What ended up 429 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 1: happening there. What's the status of Hong Kong and the 430 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 1: freedoms that it was supposed to have today? Yeah, just 431 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:23,360 Speaker 1: for some background, Beijing promised fifty years of a high 432 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 1: degree of autonomy for Hong Kong in the one Country, 433 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 1: two systems formula starting from July first, nineteen ninety seven, 434 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 1: when Britain, as they say, handed over Hong Kong to 435 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,920 Speaker 1: the People's Republic. This was a pursuant to a treaty. 436 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,400 Speaker 1: China has clearly violated that treaty. It's now running Hong 437 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,400 Speaker 1: Kong lockstock and barrel, and it has done so since 438 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: basically twenty twenty. You were referring to the big protests 439 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen. Sejumping decided that he was going to 440 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 1: take over Hong Kong. They did that with their National 441 00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 1: Security Law, which was basically called the end of law 442 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong. And right now, Hong Kong in many respects, 443 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 1: it is actually less free than the mainland itself. Certainly 444 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 1: it's more dangerous for foreigners because we don't know exactly 445 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 1: where the line is. So yeah, Hong Kong has been 446 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 1: smothered by Beijing. And also we had mentioned before we 447 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:27,240 Speaker 1: brought in North Korean to the conversation. We don't hear 448 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,960 Speaker 1: that much about North Korea these days, and we didn't 449 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 1: during the Trump administration because of the the outreach, the 450 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 1: discussion conversations between Kim Jong un and then President Donald Trump. 451 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 1: What is North Korea up to right now? Has a 452 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 1: situation deteriorated when it comes to US interest which really 453 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:54,520 Speaker 1: are Korean, Japanese and US interests in the region. Jesesian 454 00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 1: pain keep North Korea ready at a moment's notice to 455 00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 1: cause trouble, to throw the international community all balance. What's 456 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 1: going on? First of all on their missile program and 457 00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:10,800 Speaker 1: their nuclear weapons program. Those are proceeding, and you know 458 00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 1: the Biden North Koreans will fire off intercontinental ballistic missiles. 459 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 1: Those are violations of UN Security Council resolutions. And we 460 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: complain about it over the last one we call the 461 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 1: Security Council meeting. We don't do anything. So this really 462 00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 1: is this is the United States. We are not vigorously 463 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: enforcing our sanctions against North Korea and more important, we're 464 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 1: not enforcing our sanctions against China and Russia, which is 465 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 1: busting those sanctions. You know, North Korea relies on export sales. 466 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 1: That remains that they're getting dollars China is Chinese banks 467 00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 1: are laundering those dollars through our financial system. Buck We 468 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:04,480 Speaker 1: know about this, and we do nothing to stop China 469 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 1: from doing that. So this is shame on us because 470 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 1: we didn't allow Pablo Escobar to run money through New York, 471 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:16,400 Speaker 1: but we're allowing the Chinese to do so. Inside North 472 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 1: Korea right now, they don't have a famine like they 473 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 1: did in the middle of the nineteen nineties, but there 474 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 1: is a severe shortage of food. They didn't recover very 475 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: well from COVID. There's a lot that we do not know, 476 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 1: but basically Kim Jong un is able to survive and 477 00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 1: we're not. We could, We could affect that situation, but 478 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 1: we've decided not to do so because after the outreach 479 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:47,360 Speaker 1: of diplomacy during the Trump administration, Biden has gone back 480 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 1: to a policy you could generally call strategic patients, which 481 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:56,600 Speaker 1: is basically ignoring the North Koreans. Gordon, how is China 482 00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: doing with regard to COVID right now. I know that 483 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,720 Speaker 1: they've had obviously the most extreme lockdowns of any country 484 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,840 Speaker 1: in the world, stretching back for a long time. But 485 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 1: I think people were pretty surprised in this country to 486 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 1: hear that China was still having extreme lockdowns well as 487 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 1: of the last six months. What's going on. Yeah, China 488 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 1: had a zero COVID policy, which was a policy meant 489 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,719 Speaker 1: to prevent any transmission of the disease, and it was, 490 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:31,160 Speaker 1: as you say, the most extreme set of disease control 491 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 1: measures anywhere, or maybe anywhere outside of North Korea. It's 492 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,440 Speaker 1: not entirely clear, but the point is that they had 493 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 1: these large quarantine camps, Stanley testing, all the rest of it. 494 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:46,280 Speaker 1: On December seventh, the National Health Commission in China enacted 495 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 1: its ten point plan, which was essentially the abandonment of 496 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: zero COVID, and they let the disease rip. And even 497 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,480 Speaker 1: by Beijing's own estimates, about eighty percent of the population 498 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 1: has now been infected by of it, probably more by 499 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,719 Speaker 1: the end of this winner. They'll be somewhere maybe one 500 00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:10,840 Speaker 1: or two million deaths. We don't know, but clearly this 501 00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 1: has been China has had its COVID epidemic in the 502 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 1: beginning and now at the end as we've seen in 503 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,600 Speaker 1: the last couple of months or so, and they'll get 504 00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,840 Speaker 1: over it because this is omicron. It's pretty mild, but 505 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 1: nonetheless China was not prepared for this, and the Chinese 506 00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 1: people are pretty upset at the way that the government 507 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 1: has handled it. What are the chances in your mind, Gordon, 508 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 1: that we could wake up in a week, a month, 509 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 1: a year and Xijing Ping is no longer the Chinese 510 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:46,160 Speaker 1: premiere for reasons other than his own natural health and demise. 511 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 1: That's a great question. In October, at the twentieth National 512 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 1: Congress of the Communist Party, where Siju Ping got his 513 00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:01,760 Speaker 1: precedent breaking third term as General Secretary, everyone or almost 514 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:08,000 Speaker 1: everybody said that he was unchallenged. Since that time, Buck, 515 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 1: we have seen reversals of his signature policies like common prosperity, 516 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 1: zero COVID as we talked about crackdowns on certain businesses, 517 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 1: and so that has led people to believe that perhaps 518 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 1: Cejingping is not as powerful or influential as he first thought. 519 00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 1: The Chinese political system has gotten more opaque, if that 520 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 1: were possible, So there's less that we know about it, 521 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 1: and we can only guess from these policy reversals that 522 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 1: there's turmoil at the top of the Communist Party, because 523 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:48,200 Speaker 1: otherwise c would have been able to enforce his will 524 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 1: and make sure that his policies were not reversed. So 525 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 1: I think that there is a real problem. That he's 526 00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:58,560 Speaker 1: clearly the most powerful, but that doesn't mean he's as 527 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 1: powerful as he once was. Gordon. Also on the American front, 528 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,719 Speaker 1: if someone told you right now that they were considering 529 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,440 Speaker 1: traveling to China for you know, a US citizen for 530 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,520 Speaker 1: work or for fun, are there concerns of it? For example, 531 00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 1: right now, if someone told me, hey, Buck, I want 532 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,560 Speaker 1: to go to Russia. I've never seen Moscow, I want 533 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,800 Speaker 1: to go to a Red Square, I would say, bad timing, 534 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,719 Speaker 1: don't do it now. Do I think they know by 535 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,840 Speaker 1: the odds would be okay? Yeah, probably, but I certainly 536 00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 1: wouldn't tell a family member or a friend of mine 537 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,360 Speaker 1: I think it's wise to go. Do you have a 538 00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: similar feeling about China right now? Or our relations still 539 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:47,520 Speaker 1: strong enough that American businessmen can feel safe going over 540 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 1: there and not worry they're going to get detained for 541 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 1: some made up reason. It hasn't been safe for quite 542 00:34:55,120 --> 00:35:03,280 Speaker 1: some time. Buck. You remember when President Trump sought Canada, 543 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,640 Speaker 1: asked Canada to detain Mung Wang Joe, who was the 544 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 1: chief financial officer of Lahwei Technologies, which is China's national 545 00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:20,400 Speaker 1: champion telecom equipment provider. China just grabbed two Canadian citizens, 546 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,480 Speaker 1: the two Michaels as they're called, and detained them for 547 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,719 Speaker 1: no reason at all, And this obviously was in retaliation 548 00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:32,960 Speaker 1: for China complying with our request for the tension of Mismong. 549 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,240 Speaker 1: Just a couple of just a day or so ago, 550 00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:46,920 Speaker 1: on Sunday, we learned that Balfon, Chinese citizen of China Renaissance, 551 00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:54,759 Speaker 1: a very influential tech financier, was cooperating with authorities as 552 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,879 Speaker 1: the way they was put in. He disappeared in the 553 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,960 Speaker 1: middle of this month and people didn't know whether he 554 00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:05,719 Speaker 1: had fled or whether he was detained. He's detained, I mean, 555 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 1: there's just no law. So if they can do that 556 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:11,040 Speaker 1: to someone really powerful in China, they can do that 557 00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 1: to an American citizen. And I think the State Department 558 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,520 Speaker 1: should have an advisory on travel to China, which is 559 00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,840 Speaker 1: more than just be careful, It should be thou shalt 560 00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,400 Speaker 1: not go because I think that it's not possible for 561 00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 1: US to protect American citizens who have been detained in 562 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:32,400 Speaker 1: China for any reason. So unless you're traveling on a 563 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:36,080 Speaker 1: diplomatic passport, I don't think that it's safe to go 564 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:41,120 Speaker 1: to China. Gordon. Last one for you, how is the 565 00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:44,839 Speaker 1: Biden administration doing on China policy in general? What's your 566 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,000 Speaker 1: honest assessment? What are they getting right? What are they 567 00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:51,560 Speaker 1: getting wrong? What are you worried about? It's not been 568 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:55,919 Speaker 1: one hundred percent awful, but they're not moving fast enough, 569 00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,720 Speaker 1: and they're still issuing. Just to give you an example, 570 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,120 Speaker 1: they're still issuing hollow warnings on providing leadable assistance. As 571 00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,440 Speaker 1: we talked about, that's a real problem because let me 572 00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:10,680 Speaker 1: give you just a little bit of historical analogy as 573 00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:14,200 Speaker 1: to how dangerous this is. You remember England and France. 574 00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,640 Speaker 1: We're issuing hollow warnings to the Third Reich in the 575 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 1: late nineteen thirties, and we know that in August of 576 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:25,920 Speaker 1: nineteen thirty nine, Britain and France told Hitler that they 577 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:30,680 Speaker 1: would declare war on Germany if Germany invaded Poland. We 578 00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 1: know from the archives that Hitler didn't believe Britain in France. 579 00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:36,520 Speaker 1: He thought he could invade Poland and there would be 580 00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:40,279 Speaker 1: no general war in Europe. Well, Hitler was the most 581 00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:44,320 Speaker 1: surprised person in September nineteen thirty nine because he invaded Poland, 582 00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,440 Speaker 1: and Britain and France actually made good on their warnings 583 00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,400 Speaker 1: the first time they had done. So that's our problem 584 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,960 Speaker 1: right now. We are the Britain in France. Of our decade, 585 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:57,360 Speaker 1: we've been issuing all these hollow warnings to China Biden 586 00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:00,319 Speaker 1: administration and not following up. And we have and this 587 00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:02,880 Speaker 1: is not just Biden, this is previous presidents as well. 588 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,799 Speaker 1: We've taught the Chinese to ignore our warnings and eventually 589 00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:10,040 Speaker 1: the Biden administration is for the protection of the American people, 590 00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,239 Speaker 1: is going to have to carry through on one of them. 591 00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,759 Speaker 1: The Chinese aren't going to believe us. This is going 592 00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:18,960 Speaker 1: to get ugly. This is nineteen thirty nine ugly, and 593 00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:22,120 Speaker 1: so yes, their Biden administration has done some good things, 594 00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:26,120 Speaker 1: like the chip restrictions, the restrictions on selling chip making equipment, 595 00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:30,239 Speaker 1: but it's too slow, and we are now at a 596 00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,480 Speaker 1: point where the Biden administration is not acknowledging how dangerous 597 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,359 Speaker 1: this world is, and it's engaging in policies that in 598 00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:42,160 Speaker 1: the past have led to great tragedy. Get the US 599 00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,480 Speaker 1: The Great US China Tech War, Gordon's latest book, also 600 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:49,360 Speaker 1: The Coming Collapse of China, and follow Gordon G. Chang 601 00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,880 Speaker 1: on Twitter. Gordon always enlightening. Thank you for being with us. 602 00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:54,560 Speaker 1: Good to see you. Thank you so much. Buck