WEBVTT - Humans Are Progressing Despite The Gloomy News Flow: Pinker 0:00:05.800 --> 0:00:08.720 Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:11.520 Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:15.120 bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:17.840 you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:20.720 or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:32.320 Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Our 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:37.280 next guest is making the case for enlightenment and also 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:40.400 for reason, science, humanism and progress. You think that'd be 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:43.320 an easy case to make, but we need Stephen Pinker, 0:00:43.360 --> 0:00:47.000 Harvard psychologist and professor, to tell us more and why 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:49.720 it's been such a struggle for many people to grasp 0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:53.440 that enlightenment now is a good thing. Professor Pinker, thanks 0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:55.360 for being with us. Tell us why did you decide 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:59.640 to write this book now? Two reasons. One of them 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:03.040 is I kept coming here across data showing that the 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:05.800 state of humanity has been improving in ways that that 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:09.080 surprised me. I knew from the work that I did 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:11.319 for a previous book, The Better Angels of Our Nature, 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:15.560 that measures of violence had shown declines that the rate 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:22.040 of death in war, violent crime, rape, spousal abuse, child abuse, capital, 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:25.720 punishment all had declined over over the centuries and decades. 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:28.640 But then I was pleasantly surprised to see that global 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:34.600 poverty has fallen from about of humanity, that literacy has 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:38.319 risen to for people under twenty five, that diseases are 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:44.319 being decimated, that lesser time has increased, and a few 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:46.839 people are aware of these developments. Were aware of everything 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:48.960 that goes wrong, and we are not aware of the 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:51.960 gradual things that get better and better. So I wanted 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:54.480 to put all of these data between a pair of 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:58.880 covers just to uh counter the uh gloomy view of 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:00.760 the world that you get from the lines, and also 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:02.440 of course try to explain it, because I don't believe 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:04.840 there's any mystical force that just makes things better and 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:08.720 better by magic. And I attributed to a few important 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:11.280 ideas that came to the four during the second half 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:14.000 of the eighteenth century, such as that we should use 0:02:14.040 --> 0:02:18.760 reason to analyze our situation as opposed to authority and 0:02:18.840 --> 0:02:23.560 dogma and superstition, that we should enhance science, and that 0:02:23.639 --> 0:02:27.280 we should value the lives of individual men, women and 0:02:27.360 --> 0:02:30.760 children as about the highest moral good. These ideas might 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:33.120 sound obvious, but they're they're not bad obvious, and I 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:37.080 think collectively they're responsible for the progress that we've enjoyed. Yeah, 0:02:37.120 --> 0:02:40.520 what's not responsible is us, uh, the media, because you 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.240 blame us for if it bleeds, it leads and sort 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.640 of adding to this gloom and doom view of the world. 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:49.160 And I'm just wondering, I mean, is that enough to 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:52.160 drag down the discourse and sort of the misinformation that 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:57.760 we have experienced with uh, you know, potentially ambiguous sources 0:02:57.800 --> 0:03:01.680 of news and filtrating different economies. I mean, has that 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:03.960 impeded the progress or is that a blip on the 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:07.760 screen that's been over emphasized by us. Well, I certainly 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:09.720 don't want to join into the in the within the 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:12.919 chorus of blaming the mainstream media for for everything, because 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:16.120 the mainstream media are short of a heck of a 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:18.920 lot better than the alternatives. I do think there's a 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.799 there is something of a bias. That is, it is 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.760 of course essential to point out the problems that occur 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:27.760 in the suffering and the injustices and the failures, but 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:30.119 what's more important is to be accurate and to also 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:34.400 show where where things have gotten better and without It's 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:37.960 not a call to balance bad news with feel good stories, 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:41.000 but a lot of good things have happened. They don't 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:45.240 happen overnight, but still they're is important to have a 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:49.040 balanced view of the world and to be aware of 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:54.320 the solutions that actually have made people better off, not 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:58.000 not just the catastrophes and disasters. Professor Pinker, I want 0:03:58.000 --> 0:04:00.320 to just draw your attention to something specific because we 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:03.160 don't necessarily get a chance to focus on it too much, 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:07.640 which is a nuclear power and fourth generation nuclear reactors, 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:09.760 and what if you could just expand a little bit 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:11.600 on what some of the things you described in your 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:15.720 book about the potential for nuclear power. Yeah, that's uh, 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:21.120 I have I'm very open about the uh severe problems 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:22.919 facing the world that we have not yet solved, and 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:25.640 climate change is one of them. But I joined in 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:30.400 I think a growing number of science oriented environmentalists in 0:04:30.440 --> 0:04:33.080 saying that nuclear power is going to have to be 0:04:33.120 --> 0:04:37.040 part of the solution to mitigating m harmful climate change 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:40.920 just because it's the most scalable and abundant source of 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:45.880 um of zero carbon energy. UH. And there is among 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:49.400 the the pro nuclear power environmentalists, there is a bit 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:51.839 of a debate as to whether we should continue to 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:56.760 perfect the second generation light water reactors that have despite 0:04:56.960 --> 0:05:00.040 the Chernobyl and three miles and have had a a 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:03.839 remarkable safety record over the last sixty years, especially compared 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:08.599 with alternatives like coal, or whether we should accelerate towards 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:12.280 the so called fourth generation designs, which are a variety 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:15.359 of different technologies, none of them in operation now, but 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:20.520 they include possible designs where small reactors would be mass 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:24.000 produced in shipyards and and and moved by rail or 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:26.480 ship to locations and put it out of the way 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:30.880 if there's a storm or a warning of an earthquake. UM, 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:37.400 there are traveling wave reactors. There, there's a thorium reactors. Uh. 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.279 These are separate from fusion, which is a whole different 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:44.040 family of technologies. But there is I think tremendous progress 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:47.680 on the scale of several decades for UM even safer, 0:05:47.839 --> 0:05:51.360 even cheaper abundance sources of energy. You know, Stephen, when 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:55.080 when people talk about enlightenment, they think of the golden 0:05:55.200 --> 0:06:00.400 ages of science where there was rapid understanding and aspect 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:05.919 for previous analyzes and theorems, And how do you square 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:11.840 that with a growing movement to reject evolution? And you know, 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:17.240 kind of push back or fund universities less um, you know, 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:20.480 sort of anti intellectual bents that can be seen on 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:24.600 a number of different levels. Yeah, a lot. We're living 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:28.400 in paradoxical times because on the one hand, science is 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:31.839 being applied to more and more areas of policy and 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:34.800 human life. We've got evidence based policy and evidence based 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:38.960 medicine and uh cleo metrics and moneyball. Even in sports, 0:06:39.360 --> 0:06:42.400 we've got data driven crime. My husband loves saber metrics 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.680 by the way, to carry on, Yeah, and the But 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:48.960 at the at the same time, we have what seemed 0:06:48.960 --> 0:06:52.680 to be outbursts of the irrationality, such as anti vaccine 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:58.359 campaigns and uh demonization of genetically modified organisms and denial 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:02.520 of human made climate change. The the I think the 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:05.960 main answer is that when issues get politicized, when they 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:10.880 become identity badges for a political coalition, almost a tribe, 0:07:11.520 --> 0:07:16.280 that's when all of the mechanisms of human psychology that 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:19.640 we're becoming aware of that deny evidence or that actually 0:07:19.720 --> 0:07:24.600 use our rational faculties to construct the strongest case for 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:28.160 what we already believed in the first place, dismissing counter arguments, 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:32.880 dismissing counter evidence, that's when it goes into full tilt, 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:36.040 and we use our intelligence instead of getting at the truth. 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:38.680 We use our intelligence kind of like high powered lawyers 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:42.160 to win the case at all costs. And so we 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:45.920 don't yet really know how to de politicize issues so 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:50.480 that we can apply our collective rationality to coming up 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:53.960 with the best answer as opposed to just glorifying our 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:58.400 side of the political divide. Have you read or sort 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:00.560 of listened to any of the criticism of your new book, 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:03.440 because it's interesting that it's being criticized by both those 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:09.440 who are supposedly in favor of scientific inquiry, inquiry and reason, 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:13.800 but also those uh that offer a more dystopian view 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:16.760 of the future. Oh yeah, I mean it would be 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:20.040 it would contradict my own principles if I only read 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:23.320 the positive reviews and didn't read the negative reviews. UM 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:26.440 so so so yes. And there is opposition, and I 0:08:26.440 --> 0:08:30.440 expected opposition UM from from a number of sectors, from 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:37.760 a kind of mainstream UH literary cultural academic um UH 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:44.120 cadre of of critics and analysts who are deeply committed 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:47.400 to the idea that that Western civilization is in decline, 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:51.240 that all our institutions are evil and corrupt, and that 0:08:51.760 --> 0:08:54.080 it's been in decline. I mean you actually take them 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:57.000 seriously for for hundred and fifty years. You wonder why 0:08:57.040 --> 0:09:01.160 it hasn't top of yet. Uh. And there's an attitude 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:06.200 of uh, a constant dudgeon and and the feeling of 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:10.960 taking umbrage at every institution of modern society. And so 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:13.000 for someone to like me to come along and say, well, 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:15.400 for all its laws, you know, we are living longer, 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:18.360 and racial prejudice is going down, and that the rights 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.360 of women have increased, and poverty is going down globally, 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:23.640 and there are fewer wars and crime is down. It's 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:28.560 almost like vindicating the establishment that they're committed to uh 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:32.320 to to demonizing. So I expected that. I expected push 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:35.800 back from the religious right, because I argue, for a 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:40.400 morality that is thoroughly secular, depends only on human well being, 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:45.400 doesn't depend on scripture or Messiah's or divine commandments. UH. 0:09:45.440 --> 0:09:49.959 And I expected uh um pushback on specific issues. So 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:52.520 there's a lot of the traditional green movement is dead 0:09:52.559 --> 0:09:56.520 set against nuclear power, for example. On the other side, 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.720 a lot of the American right is dead set against 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:04.880 the that there's even a threat of climate change. Because 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:10.240 of mission of UM greenhouse gases. Yeah, so anyway, but 0:10:10.320 --> 0:10:13.360 a lot of opposition and I anticipated all of it. Well, 0:10:13.360 --> 0:10:16.520 we appreciate you joining us and filling us in on 0:10:16.559 --> 0:10:19.880 all of that and expressing your ideas, which are an important, uh, 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:23.960 an important thing to note given the negative headlines that 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:27.000 do cross every day that we bring to everybody every day. 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:30.760 Stephen Pinker, professor of psychology at Harvard University, joining us 0:10:30.800 --> 0:10:49.920 from Boston, Massachusetts, here to talk about what the trade 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:52.200 policy may mean into weigh in and what we just heard. 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:56.400 Paresh Upata, director of Currency Strategy at A Mundi Pioneer. 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:58.720 He joins us here in our eleven three oh studios, 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:00.960 Thank you so much for being here. What was your 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:03.920 impression of what we just heard from Peter Navarrow Well, 0:11:03.960 --> 0:11:06.960 I thought what I thought was most interesting comment was 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:10.880 the need for protectionism in UM certain sectors like he 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:14.559 mentioned steel and aluminum, and he in fact highlighted aluminum, 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.200 and there's little doubt that aluminum production the US has 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:21.040 declined sharply. Capacit utilization aluminium is down to thirty seven. 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:24.080 But I think what we need to see is not 0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:27.400 just arroiffs. I mean to protect the industries one thing, 0:11:27.400 --> 0:11:31.440 but we need investments, and he describes six smelter plants 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:34.400 that have been shut down. The problem is is that 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:37.920 we're not seeing new investment in the aluminum industry. So 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:43.080 if tariffs are implemented, but these aluminum UM firms start 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:48.559 to UH invest and build new factories, then that's positive 0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:51.520 for growth. But it's unclear if we're going to see that. 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:54.080 But when't they invest more? If they thought that it 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:56.680 was going to be more lucrative UM, they would, But 0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:59.880 there's a number of items that's afflicting that industry. One 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.000 is the electricity costs are very high, which makes it 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.920 very difficult for um Alcoa and other lumin producers to 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:10.360 be cost effective. So as long as their support so 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:13.160 instead of terroriffs, I would argue that if you can 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:17.240 give subsidies to reduce the cost of electricity, that is 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:21.360 probably a more beneficial impact in the aluminum industry than 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:25.360 than terroriffs, which could ignite a trade war. I'd like 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:27.000 to know your thoughts about what's going on with the 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:30.480 US dollar and whether we can see you continued US 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:34.040 dollar weakness or whether rising US interest rates in the 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:38.439 United States UH will compel investors to be bullish the dollar. 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.560 It's probably what surprises people the most. You know, we 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:44.720 have such strong US growth fundamentals, you have a federal 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:48.800 reserve that is sounding ever bit more hawkish, but yet 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.720 the dollar has has weakened. It reminds me of a 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:53.920 period in the mid two thousands where we had the 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:56.400 same thing where the FED was hiking interest rates, but 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:59.800 the dollar declined seven percent despite FED interest rates going 0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:03.240 up another hundred twenty five basis points. I see a 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:05.800 similar pattern happening now, and the main difference is that 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:08.600 global growth remains pretty strong, and I think that that 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:12.240 factor is likely to keep the dollar under pressure because 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:14.120 we have a lot of FED rate hikes priced in. 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:16.839 But I think that the key theme driving the dollar 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.559 for the next year or two is monetary policy convergence, 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:24.720 where the ECB will tighten policy and the BOJ world 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:26.840 time policy. But right now, the markets haven't priced in 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:28.440 a lot of that. So would that be good for 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:32.520 emerging markets? Um? Well, I think that the global backdrop 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:36.079 for emerging markets is actually still pretty constructive. Export growth 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:40.439 is pretty strong, and global financial conditions still remain very accommodative. 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:44.120 Those are great conditions for emerging markets. The big wild 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.640 card is what what Peter Navarre just talked about and 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:49.600 what we've been discussing about the prospects of trade wars. 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:53.080 That remains the real big wild card for global growth, 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:56.160 and that would be particularly negative for emerging markets because 0:13:56.240 --> 0:14:01.160 trade wars will definitely affect um export depend economies and 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:05.360 other economies. You know, I'm just struggling to sort of 0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:09.160 extrapolate out here. So if the FED gets more hawkish 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:14.440 and raises rates more frequently, the dollar continues it's depreciating path, 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:19.120 meaning that foreign investors are less willing to invest in 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:24.360 this nation. Isn't this a sort of dangerous recipe allowing 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:27.720 borrowing costs in the US to rise somewhat more than 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:31.080 perhaps the economy can handle. Well, I think that's certainly 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:36.640 a risk and another source of tightening for the overall economy. Um. 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.880 And that's that's the other factor that I didn't describe 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:43.720 behind dollar weaknesses, the re emergence of twin deficits. Not 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:46.960 only is the current account deficit rising, but in particular 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:49.800 the budget deficit, which will rise from three point four 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.880 percent of GDP last year to some estimates i've seen 0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:56.320 nearly six percent. And the issue wance the treasury issues 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:59.080 were likely to see with fed selling of treasuries and 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.640 new issue in could lead to a crowding out of investors, 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:05.960 and that will drive up treasury yields and borrowing costs 0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:09.080 for the US at just this at just the wrong time, 0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:13.200 exactly at a time, um, when when we've entered a 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:16.080 mature phase of the U S economic cycle. Um, But 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:19.280 we're receiving the stimulus at the time that we probably 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:22.320 shouldn't be seeing it. You know, I'm wondering whether I'm 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:26.080 over reading one particular market action today. I'm looking at 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:29.440 five year forward break events. Basically, this is a measure 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:33.480 of future traders expectations of inflation over the next five years. 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:36.600 It's risen to the highest since twenty thirteen. If you 0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:40.280 look at longer term measures of inflation, they've actually been declining. 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:44.000 This seems to me a set up for stag inflation. 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:47.200 Do you think that we are heading more toward that 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:52.480 potential reality? I would say that unlikely to see that 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.840 at this point in time, only because the FETE has 0:15:55.880 --> 0:16:00.560 definitely communicated that the objective of form of of of 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:04.640 Monterrey policy is gradual rate hikes and as long as 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.560 we see twenty five basis points you know, per quarter. 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:11.600 I think that that reduces the risk of stagflation um, 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:16.080 but certainly it's it's worth monitoring, especially with the prospects 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.120 of trade wars and does that start to hurt um 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:23.880 growth and UM and inflation is really the big wild card. 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:27.320 It looks like all the trends inflation and wages seem 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:29.880 to be on this mild upward trend. But if we 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:33.240 were to see real surprise to the upside, then that 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:36.720 might force the FED to tighten more aggressively. Then the 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.720 risk of stagflation truly increase. I want to thank you 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:41.640 for spending time with us and coming into our eleven 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.760 three oh studios. Pereschial Patia is the director of Currency 0:16:44.800 --> 0:17:03.800 Strategy at a Mundi Pioneer. Are we getting closer to 0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.840 nuclear or well, many say yes and here to talk 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:11.400 about that and frankly the companies uh that corporate role 0:17:11.720 --> 0:17:15.080 in this sort of escalation of nuclear tensions is Beatrice Finn, 0:17:15.280 --> 0:17:18.920 executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons 0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:21.080 based in Geneva, Switzerland. She joins us here in our 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:23.320 eleven three year studios. She also has one a Noble 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:25.200 Peace prize and she keeps it on her manta face. 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.800 I'm sure. Thank you so much, Beatrice for being here 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:32.360 with us. You recently put out a report outlining, uh, 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:37.080 the corporate role in nuclear arms. Can you sort of 0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:39.840 lay out what you found there? Well, we see a 0:17:40.160 --> 0:17:44.320 very worrying international trend where the nuclear arms states are 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:48.280 modernizing their arsenals and frankly threatening to use nuclear weapons. 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:52.640 And when Trump says that he wants more usable nuclear weapons, 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:56.119 there are companies behind that that produced them. Um and 0:17:56.240 --> 0:18:00.879 companies like Honeywell, Boweing Airbus for example, that are making 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:05.040 these weapons. And of course there's also a huge number 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:09.159 of financial institutions that are providing them with the money 0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:12.000 to do so. So we've been tracking this and seeing 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:16.040 that last year there was an additional eighty one billion 0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:19.840 dollars made available for new weapons production. Just real quickly 0:18:20.480 --> 0:18:26.280 does the government pay, like for example, with the US 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:31.120 government pay Boeing or Honeywell to develop something in advance? 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:34.000 And are they doing so right now? Yeah, it's huge 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:38.000 defense contracts that involve these kind of modernization programs of 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:40.760 nuclear arsenals that are being put out to these companies. 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:44.520 So people are making profit out of these indiscriminate in 0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:47.680 the inhumane weapons of mass destruction that could end us all. 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:52.480 Really um back in the this is obviously before, way 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:56.679 before you were born. But the President Eisenhower, in his 0:18:56.800 --> 0:19:01.160 farewell speech to the nation, spoke about the potential danger 0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:06.399 of the influence in government of the military industrial complex. Uh. 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:11.919 Eisenhower was also seemingly an advocate that no private industry 0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:18.200 should profit from the manufacture of armaments. Do you believe 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:23.720 that we use a flawed lens to look at the 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:26.920 effects of the armaments industry? And I'm what I mean 0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:30.679 by that, particularly a nuclear power nuclear in weapons, not 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:34.960 nuclear powers, that's a completely different thing, is that they 0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:40.199 provide a level of safety which may sound rhetorically coherent 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:43.560 but in reality doesn't necessarily work that way. I wonder 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:45.720 what your thoughts are about that exactly. I mean, these 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:48.359 weapons put us at the brink of war all the time. 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:51.639 We've seen throughout the Cold War, but also after the 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:54.159 Cold War, how close we've been to nuclear war and 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:57.920 nuclear use, and the consequence of that would be devastating, 0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:02.280 with hundreds of thousands, maybe million, of casualties, long term 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:06.040 impact both on human health, on the environ but also 0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:09.040 of course the business sector. Right. But I guess I 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:12.240 guess I was going with this is that, um, yes, 0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:17.080 they sound rhetorically horrible and they are nuclear weapons, but 0:20:17.200 --> 0:20:20.240 that they provide a kind of context that then allows 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:23.320 for the escalation of what you might describe as conventional warfare, 0:20:23.320 --> 0:20:26.560 whether that is using chemical weapons in Syria or whether 0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:29.840 that is using terrorists bombs to you know, blow up 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:31.320 in the cin civilians. In other words, it gives you 0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:33.320 that kind of cover that says, well, we can't use 0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:35.120 nuclear weapons, so we're going to use these other things. 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:38.119 But they kill people nonetheless, absolutely, And I think the 0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:41.640 entire weapons industry is a problem, but these weapons are 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:46.680 really at another level in a way, with the possibility 0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:49.960 to in just a few seconds wipe out an entire city. Well, 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:53.520 some people would argue that, you know, nuclear weapons have 0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:56.680 actually prevented another world war since their advent, and basically 0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:00.520 that the threat of using them has actually created peace. Uh. 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.480 And a lot of people would say that if a 0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:08.720 country does fall behind with respect to modernizing their their 0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:13.040 stashes of nuclear weapons, that they could make it more 0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:15.600 likely that there could be some kind of conflict. I mean, 0:21:15.600 --> 0:21:17.639 what do you say to that? Argument, well, we're the 0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:21.120 threat of using new weapons is carried out all the time. 0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:24.800 We have big submarines and airplanes going around with these 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:28.640 weapons and sort of hartrigal alert, and it also means 0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:32.000 that there could be a risk of an accident misunderstanding. 0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:35.879 The terrence will not always hold up. One day, we 0:21:35.920 --> 0:21:38.320 will see new weapons being used. We have seen many examples, 0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:42.200 for example, where it hasn't prevented war conflict. We are 0:21:42.320 --> 0:21:45.560 have been that brink of war with North Korea right now. 0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:48.480 When you talk with companies, when you talk to Boeing 0:21:48.600 --> 0:21:51.320 or honeywell, what do they say and what do you 0:21:51.320 --> 0:21:54.760 say to them? These companies and also the financial institutions 0:21:54.760 --> 0:21:57.320 and invested and they don't like to admit that they 0:21:57.359 --> 0:22:00.320 are involved in this and trying to sort of d vate. 0:22:00.400 --> 0:22:02.480 So I think it's really important for the public and 0:22:02.520 --> 0:22:04.560 for consumers to know what they are producing. And I 0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:07.480 think that the report that we produced is to also 0:22:07.560 --> 0:22:11.160 increase transparency and let consumers know where their money goes 0:22:11.200 --> 0:22:14.560 and where they're punching funds are being used for. So 0:22:14.600 --> 0:22:17.040 I think it's um it's for us, it's really important 0:22:17.080 --> 0:22:18.720 to have this dialogue with the companies. Also and to 0:22:18.840 --> 0:22:21.560 sort of try to find out what they are producing 0:22:22.400 --> 0:22:24.399 and and expose that in a way to make the 0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:27.239 consumers be able to choose. Do you think that the 0:22:27.320 --> 0:22:29.639 efforts on the part of US presidents, at least in 0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:32.640 the past to reduce the nuclear stockpile, which really every 0:22:32.640 --> 0:22:37.640 president has done, have been matched by the efforts, let's say, 0:22:37.680 --> 0:22:40.920 on the part of the Russian government. I mean, we've 0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:44.639 seen tensions go up and down. We've seen some huge progress. 0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:46.520 We saw that in the eighties, for example, we saw 0:22:46.520 --> 0:22:49.600 a huge Paris in the sixties after the Cuban missile crisis. 0:22:50.640 --> 0:22:53.399 Right now we see a very negative trend. So I 0:22:53.440 --> 0:22:55.959 think that there's US a lot of concern right now 0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:58.119 that we're going in the wrong direction in the nuclear 0:22:58.200 --> 0:23:00.960 arm states. We saw put in last week with an 0:23:01.000 --> 0:23:04.960 aggressive statement showing off new types of missiles. Of course, 0:23:05.000 --> 0:23:09.440 the US, the Trump new Nuclear Posture Review um shows 0:23:09.600 --> 0:23:13.879 uh an attempt to lower the bar for using nuclear 0:23:13.920 --> 0:23:16.880 weapons and developed more usable nuclear weapons. And we see 0:23:16.880 --> 0:23:18.440 all the new Crown states right now in a very 0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:21.800 negative trend. But we also see a lot of countries 0:23:21.840 --> 0:23:25.000 going in the other direction. We negotiate a treaty prohibiting 0:23:25.119 --> 0:23:28.680 nuclear weapons last year and seeing a lot of leadership 0:23:28.760 --> 0:23:33.480 from around the world and countries rejecting this weapon. Beatrice Finn, 0:23:33.480 --> 0:23:35.960 thank you so much for joining us. Really a pleasure, 0:23:36.520 --> 0:23:38.560 although you know I'm gonna be worrying about armageddon for 0:23:38.600 --> 0:23:39.879 the rest of the day. But other than that, it 0:23:39.920 --> 0:23:42.760 was a pleasure. Beatrice Finn, executive director of the International 0:23:42.800 --> 0:23:46.639 Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons based in Geneva. She is 0:23:47.000 --> 0:23:50.440 a Nobel Peace Prize winner. Or thanks you for coming 0:23:50.520 --> 0:24:07.760 in oil. A lot going on here. I was struck 0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:12.800 by the I e A. The projection that US shale 0:24:13.000 --> 0:24:17.880 will account for about half of all new demand within 0:24:17.920 --> 0:24:21.680 the next ten years. Vincent Piazza, senior equity energy analysts 0:24:21.680 --> 0:24:26.160 in global sector leader for Bloomberg Intelligence, joins us. Now, 0:24:26.680 --> 0:24:31.760 how does the increasing US production and frankly exports to 0:24:31.800 --> 0:24:35.560 the rest of the world affect oil prices in your estimation? So, 0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:37.639 I think what we have talked about from time to 0:24:37.720 --> 0:24:40.400 time when over the last several years is the resilience 0:24:41.000 --> 0:24:44.120