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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot.

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Speaker 2: They're up for running again.

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Speaker 1: So smooth, so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious.

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Speaker 3: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort,

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Speaker 3: four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that shop of mind, my buddy, And

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Speaker 4: that's why you.

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Speaker 2: See your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 5: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The wall. It's left to wada, wide eyed drill pibus,

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Speaker 1: How old Earth, Big time happens.

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonderful the Soccer Betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from your friends at the Action Network. My name

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Speaker 4: is Michael Liba. Joining me as always are my good

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Speaker 4: buddy and colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, who is

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Speaker 4: still over the pond and jolly old getting ready for

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Speaker 4: the Champions League watching some Champions League soccer over there

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Speaker 4: in England. But we're gonna look past that. This is

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Speaker 4: a weekend preview. We got a full slate of Premier

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Speaker 4: League matches to break down, and we're gonna start with

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Speaker 4: the first match, which is seven thirty am on Saturday,

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Speaker 4: Red hot Newcastle plus six fifty at home hosting Red

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Speaker 4: hot Liverpool minus two thirty five the draw here plus

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Speaker 4: three seventy thereabouts, Like we can keep going over the

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Speaker 4: same points with Liverpool. First of all, we are recording

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Speaker 4: this just before they play and lose to via Reale,

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Speaker 4: But it's the same points right ninth game in twenty

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Speaker 4: eight days, six and seventeen for Liverpool. At some point

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Speaker 4: these numbers and the amount of miles on these like

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Speaker 4: should catch up to them. But we all are also

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Speaker 4: pretty skeptical of the market love for Newcastle going forward

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Speaker 4: for the rest of the season, and have been for

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Speaker 4: quite some time, so pretty tough one to call. I

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Speaker 4: think I would lean towards a result for Newcastle just

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Speaker 4: because of the kind of extenuating circumstances for Liverpool, and

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Speaker 4: I still think they're too expensive to bet. But I

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Speaker 4: do wonder where you guys are at BJ Let's start

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Speaker 4: with you.

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Speaker 1: I'm kind of at the same point where I've been

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Speaker 1: in Newcastle for pretty much since the January transfer, where

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Speaker 1: I'm not really buying this team right now. They've had

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Speaker 1: a pretty easy schedule since that point. I mean they've

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Speaker 1: played only two Big six sides since January fifteenth, which

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Speaker 1: is Chelsea and Tottenham. They lost both of them three

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Speaker 1: point nine expectacles allowed combined in those two matches, and honestly,

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Speaker 1: they really haven't been that dominant. What's funny is that

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Speaker 1: since that January fifteenth point, Liverpool and Newcastle are one

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Speaker 1: to two in terms of total points during that time

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Speaker 1: From now, Newcastle's played three or matches in the city,

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Speaker 1: but still they've thirty two points and fifteen matches, but

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Speaker 1: their expected points is only twenty three point five. So

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Speaker 1: they have overperformed I would say, not incredibly drastically, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think any of us are sitting here believing

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Speaker 1: that Newcastle is this suddenly amazing team that can compete

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Speaker 1: with a Big six side. Now, you know, over that

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Speaker 1: timeframe they run a little bit hot defensively, you know,

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Speaker 1: thirteen goals allowed off of sixteen point one. They're still

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Speaker 1: struggling to play through pressure, which is very, very important

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Speaker 1: in this match. Since that January fifteenth date, offensive passes

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Speaker 1: per defensive action for Newcastle is eight point one four,

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Speaker 1: which is seventeenth in the Premier League. Liverpool is obviously

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Speaker 1: the best pressing team in the Premier League. Theyre averaging

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half high turnovers per match. I understand

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Speaker 1: this is a sandwich spot between the two matches against Viial,

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Speaker 1: but this is still incredibly high stakes for Liverpool, so

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Speaker 1: you'll probably see them rotate their squad a little bit.

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Speaker 1: You'll probably see Formino, maybe some Diego Jota. We don't

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Speaker 1: know obviously, since recording this before the Vireal match, we

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Speaker 1: don't know who Liverpool is going to play on their

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Speaker 1: front three. But I'd expect a full strength squad for Liverpool.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Liverpool has just been dominating against teams not

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Speaker 1: outside the Big six. Know expect a goal to differential

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Speaker 1: one point seventy four per ninety minutes, averaging two point

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Speaker 1: five expected goals per match. So the last time these

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Speaker 1: two teams met it was very interesting. It was very chaotic.

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Speaker 1: Liverpool won three to one. It was there was a

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Speaker 1: bunch of COVID stuff going on with both teams. But

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Speaker 1: either way, I have three point six goals projected for

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Speaker 1: this one, so over three goals setting up plus one fifteen,

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Speaker 1: which I think is awfully cheap for how good Liverpool's

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Speaker 1: offense has been all season long.

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Speaker 4: It's it's been quite a run for both of these teams. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: Liverpool's is getting a lot more attension because of what

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Speaker 4: they're doing. And I wouldn't necessarily say it's it's it

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Speaker 4: is a Sandwich spot, sure, but it's it's more just

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Speaker 4: about the build up of matches for me, because like

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Speaker 4: you said, this is a high stakes match. They need

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Speaker 4: to get every point possible to keep pace with City,

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Speaker 4: who are playing leads over the weekend. So you'd expect

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Speaker 4: both of these teams, especially you know, the odds makers

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Speaker 4: are saying it they're both very likely to win. So

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Speaker 4: it's just at some point Liverpool it would be. And

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Speaker 4: everyone keeps saying like, oh, they're not going to drop

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Speaker 4: a point for the rest of the season, and it's

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Speaker 4: just like this assumption that City and them are both

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Speaker 4: gonna win out but at some point they're going to

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Speaker 4: have to. And this trip is tough, especially when you're

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Speaker 4: going you're going to be playing a team like vi

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Speaker 4: Areal who will make you, you know, earn every inch

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Speaker 4: on the pitch. Anthony, you actually have some confidence in

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Speaker 4: Liverpool your boys. You're always on them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I lean that way.

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Speaker 3: I haven't played this match yet because I don't really

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Speaker 3: love the spot. I understand that, you know, they've they've

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Speaker 3: had these bad situational spots for a while now, but

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Speaker 3: I think this one especially as the kind of game

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Speaker 3: where you know this is going to be a grinded

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Speaker 3: out kind of result against an improved defensive side in Newcastle,

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Speaker 3: and that's been really the main increase and the main

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Speaker 3: improvement for this team is you know, they added Joe

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Speaker 3: Linton to the midfield. Now he's no longer a striker,

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Speaker 3: he's doing a lot of defensive work winning the ball.

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Speaker 3: They've improved defensively, all carrying center backs have gotten better,

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Speaker 3: and they're not quite as you know they can seeing

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Speaker 3: as many high quality chances, but you know they're still

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Speaker 3: running really well Newcastle, and I do expect regression more

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Speaker 3: so than I do for Liverpool, who we shouldn't be

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Speaker 3: that surprised as running tough the Premier League, given that

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Speaker 3: they're the one of the two best teams in the world. Now,

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Speaker 3: to put some numbers on it, Newcastle is plus point

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Speaker 3: oh two xt difference per ninety Since January twenty second,

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Speaker 3: which is the day that they started this winning run,

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Speaker 3: they've been on ten wins, three draws, two league defeats,

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Speaker 3: so they've been very impressive. But they have only amassed

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Speaker 3: about one point five expected goals per ninety in that run.

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Speaker 3: So this attack has run very well and their defense

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Speaker 3: is overperformed by about three tenths of a goal per

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Speaker 3: match relative to x Chief. So I am not a

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Speaker 3: believer in Newcastle. I'll be looking for fade spots. The

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Speaker 3: problem is they play City next week two, so they're

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Speaker 3: going to have a big say in this title race.

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Speaker 3: But there's not a ton of good faith spots left

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Speaker 3: for Newcastle unfortunately, so we'll have to monitor. But this

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Speaker 3: one is going to be a lean towards Liverpool for me,

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Speaker 3: but I'm not really sure I want to lay a

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Speaker 3: goal and a half go on a quarter on the

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Speaker 3: road in a bad spot.

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Speaker 4: It should be a really good atmosphere, obviously. People are

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Speaker 4: buoyant up there in the Northeast with the way Newcastle

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Speaker 4: has finished this season, actually since Ettie how came on board,

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Speaker 4: so tip our caps to him. We were up pretty

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Speaker 4: wrong about that one. All right, We'll move to the

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Speaker 4: ten am slate. We'll start with Villa and Norwich Aston.

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Speaker 4: Villa is minus two forty five Norich cities plus seven hundred.

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Speaker 4: The draw here is plus three eighty aston Villa zero wins,

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Speaker 4: one draw, four losses in the last five two goals

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Speaker 4: for nine goals against. Their expected goals though is actually

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Speaker 4: they're in the black there plus five five point seven

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Speaker 4: expected goals for five point two against. So yeah, they've

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Speaker 4: been a bit unlucky during the stretch, don't don't deserve

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Speaker 4: to be oh one and four for sure, However, this

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Speaker 4: run has put them. They're not in danger yet, but

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Speaker 4: they are just at the top of that relegation zone.

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Speaker 4: And a loss to Norwich, which is I wouldn't say

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Speaker 4: gonna would be a huge, huge, huge surprise given the

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Speaker 4: way Villa's played and the results they've taken, would put

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Speaker 4: a little bit more pressure on them. However, bookmakers don't

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Speaker 4: think that one's coming, with Norwich coming out it seven

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Speaker 4: to one. However, the Canaries four point one expected goes

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Speaker 4: for over the last three matches, which you know, when

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Speaker 4: you consider who they are pretty good for a team

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Speaker 4: like this, and they've got a six point four expected

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Speaker 4: goals allowed, so that tells you they've probably just decided

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Speaker 4: to have a little bit of fun down the stretch here,

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Speaker 4: play a little bit more loose play a little bit

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Speaker 4: more wide open as they've basically been eliminated from the

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Speaker 4: fight for survival. So it's a tricky spot I think

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Speaker 4: for a team like Villa who will now need to

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Speaker 4: kind of ramp up just to get those next two

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Speaker 4: or three points to ensure safety. So a tough spot

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Speaker 4: for a bet. I would think that Norch is live

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Speaker 4: to score, to put some pressure on maybe Norch to

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Speaker 4: score first, but other than that, not too much betting

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Speaker 4: interest here for me BJ.

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Speaker 1: What about you, Yeah, I actually like under two and

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Speaker 1: a half goals are just sitting at plus one point fifteen.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Asston Villa, they've been the definition of average

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Speaker 1: under Steven Gerrard minus point nine expected goal diffronchial in

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Speaker 1: his twenty one matches in charge. They're only averaging one

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Speaker 1: point one six expected goals for match and allowing one

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Speaker 1: point two sheeper match, so their matches are essentially averting

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Speaker 1: two point three to six expecting goals. That is very

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Speaker 1: very low, especially for the Premier League, and they've been

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Speaker 1: running a little bit unlucky defensively as of late. Like

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, nine goals allowed off of five point two

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Speaker 1: expected in their last five matches, a lot of them

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Speaker 1: coming against when Tottenham put four goals on them but

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Speaker 1: only created one expecting goal. And you know, Norwich, I

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Speaker 1: understand they're playing more open, they're having playing more loose.

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Speaker 1: They're going to get relegated. It's only just a matter

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Speaker 1: of time at this point. But I mean I understand

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Speaker 1: that they've you know, they back to back matches against

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Speaker 1: Burnley and Manchester United, they scored you know, two goals

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Speaker 1: a piece. But I mean this is a club that's

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Speaker 1: only created five big scoring chances in their last fifteen matches.

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Speaker 1: And this is the second Dean Smith revenge game. The

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Speaker 1: last one asking Villa got him to nothing at Carol Road.

201
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Speaker 1: It was you know, only two point three expected goal

202
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Speaker 1: if it created only one big scoring chance in the match.

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Speaker 1: From projection standpoint, I only have two point three goals

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Speaker 1: for this one. So for under two and a half

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Speaker 1: goals at plus one fifteen, I think that's a pretty

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Speaker 1: good price. Or if you want to play both teams

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Speaker 1: to score no to protect yourself, I believe it's at

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Speaker 1: minus one fifteen to protect yourself from potential aston Villa

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Speaker 1: or Norwich blowout, I believe that has some value as well.

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Speaker 4: Right, the Norwich blowout and that's what's coming. Yep, Anthony

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Speaker 4: anything I just went before we move on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, not a ton.

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Speaker 3: You know, Villa only one point two x chief since

214
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Speaker 3: January per match. Not great attacking. They're struggling to find

215
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Speaker 3: kind of the balance between defending and attacking, I think

216
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Speaker 3: under Gerrard and it's been the main issue. And when

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Speaker 3: they're able to counter and into space, they've been effective

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Speaker 3: and continue has been relatively good in those situations, but

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Speaker 3: they've really struggled otherwise against teams that are going to

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Speaker 3: defend a little deeper like I expect Norwich too that

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Speaker 3: I mean Norch can defend. I am going to buy

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Speaker 3: on Villa. I think there's gonna be some spots where

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Speaker 3: we may be betting on them. I think Burnley is

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Speaker 3: going to be very very inflated when they play Villa

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Speaker 3: twice in the next two weeks, for example. But you know,

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Speaker 3: at home against Norwich, I have to lay a goal

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Speaker 3: and a half to really bet this team, and I

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Speaker 3: really don't want to do that. You know, you mentioned

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Speaker 3: a BJ the winless run they've been on last five games.

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Speaker 3: They've been very unlucky. I mean, their actually difference is

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Speaker 3: about six to five point two to against. Their actual

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Speaker 3: is two to nine four and against. So they've been

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Speaker 3: very unlucky in the last month or so and they've

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Speaker 3: fallen a little bit of fifteenth despite you know, they're

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Speaker 3: eleventh in my power ratings, and I think they're a

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Speaker 3: much better team than fifteenth.

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Speaker 2: So looking to bet on them, but not here, Gonna pass.

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Speaker 4: We'll move on to Wolves and Brighton plus one seventy five.

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Speaker 4: Wolverhampton is at home Brighton one eighty. The draw here

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Speaker 4: is plus two ten, so basically a pick them across

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Speaker 4: the board. I think this game. I mean, it's been

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Speaker 4: a while since I've said this because it's just not

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Speaker 4: been going well for me. When I do bet it,

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Speaker 4: it just has draws written all over it. If you

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Speaker 4: watch that Wolves attack against Burnley, it's just it takes

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Speaker 4: so long for them to get going. They just really

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Speaker 4: do lumber up the pitch and they spend so much

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Speaker 4: time passing the ball around in kind of that middle

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Speaker 4: third that you're talking about, like a third of the

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Speaker 4: game just being played in that and that's by out

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Speaker 4: of the pitch where there's very little danger for each

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Speaker 4: team because they're and they're not really turning the ball

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Speaker 4: over there. They play pretty pragmatic possession game when they

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Speaker 4: have there on the ball, and you know Burnley excuse

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Speaker 4: me Brighton, Yeah, they press well in that area of

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Speaker 4: the pitch. But it's just it to me, it's just

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Speaker 4: is two offenses that lumber. They'd like to dottle on

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Speaker 4: the ball and uh, you could see that. I don't

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Speaker 4: really see either attack putting too much separation between the

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Speaker 4: two sides. So the draw should always be in play

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Speaker 4: here will give me? Give me the draw plus two

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Speaker 4: ten in what should be I guess the sleepiest game

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Speaker 4: on the card. But I do want to bring up

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Speaker 4: that Brighton do seem to be rounding into form two

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Speaker 4: point seven expend to goal score last two matches one

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Speaker 4: point four against Saints and and really dominated but would drawn.

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Speaker 4: So you know that's that's typical Brighton. Maybe they're back.

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Speaker 4: What do you guys have here? Wolves and Brighton PJ.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't really have much here. I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a sleepy one

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Speaker 1: one thing and this is kind of going on. Anthony

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Speaker 1: likes to do a possession prop that would be very

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Speaker 1: very interesting to take Brighton here because Wolves. We've talked

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Speaker 1: about the old performance, We've talked about, you know, how

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Speaker 1: lucky they've been all season, But they are most likely

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Speaker 1: in this type of match, are just going to try

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Speaker 1: to sit deep, and Brighton's probably going to control a large,

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Speaker 1: large share of this type of possession in this one,

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Speaker 1: even though it is at Molineux. So I would be

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Speaker 1: interested to see what the prop is for possession on

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Speaker 1: this one. If it's Brighton fifty two percent or better,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it'll not be that good. I

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Speaker 1: think that's a decent bet given the style of play

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Speaker 1: that Wolves has. Because Wolves is dead last in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League and pastes per defensive action, they are providing

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Speaker 1: no resistance whatsoever. It's too low blocks, it's sit deep.

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Speaker 1: Brighton's so good at playing through pressure, They're so good

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Speaker 1: at being a possession dominant side when they have to

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Speaker 1: play some of these teams that are not inside the

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Speaker 1: Big six. So nothing here for me. Maybe potentially a

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Speaker 1: live spot if Brighton is you know, if Wolves scores first,

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Speaker 1: might want to try to get on on Brighton because

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Speaker 1: I'm sure they'll create enough chances be able to play

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Speaker 1: through whatever low block that Wolves has to at least

295
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Speaker 1: create something inside the box. The question Brighton is can

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Speaker 1: they finish it? So nothing for me, but I would

297
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Speaker 1: be very interested to see what the price is on

298
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Speaker 1: a Brighton possession prop.

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Speaker 4: Two teams that just you don't trust them to convert

300
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Speaker 4: the chances that they do create it. And I don't

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Speaker 4: see Wolves or Brighton or excuse me, wolves creating a

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Speaker 4: ton and then once that Brighton do create, then you're

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Speaker 4: asking yourself the age old question with the seagulls, are

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Speaker 4: they going to finish them? So that's why I really

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Speaker 4: do think the draw here makes some sense. Anthony, You're

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Speaker 4: going back to the seagulls.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this spot circled. You know, I've had

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Speaker 3: it circled for a few weeks. This little run here.

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Speaker 3: Brighton went through their their dip, right, they had the

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Speaker 3: six straight losses, they were struggling. Everybody said they're done.

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Speaker 3: They beat Art and they beat Spurs. Okay, they ran

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Speaker 3: out of gas in the second half against City. I

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Speaker 3: thought City caught them out and transitioned a little bit.

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Speaker 3: They've got a little slow with their possession led to

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Speaker 3: some high turnovers. Some chances you know, you lose to City.

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Speaker 3: There's no shame in that. I thought they had a

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Speaker 3: very impressive performance. Again unfortunate at the weekend they got

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Speaker 3: ward proused once again and you know then they blow

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Speaker 3: a two goal lead, but again the much.

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Speaker 2: Better side throughout that match.

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Speaker 3: And this is the matchup, you know, where we have

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Speaker 3: the classic, the undervalued Brighton attack that is due for

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Speaker 3: some positive aggression in a situation where they're going to

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Speaker 3: be able to control the ball, they're going to be

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Speaker 3: able to have a ton of it. I agree with

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Speaker 3: bj on the possession prop. So they don't want to

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Speaker 3: guess where Brighton ranks in position percentage in the prem

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Speaker 3: this year.

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Speaker 2: Yes, say fifth, they are fourth. Only the big.

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Speaker 3: Three of Chelsea, Liverpool and man City have a higher

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Speaker 3: possession percentage than the Seagulls at fifty five point five percent.

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Speaker 3: Wolves down in eleventh at fifty point three, so a

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Speaker 3: little lower and dead last of course Burnley Newcastle nineteenth.

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Speaker 2: That's enough of that. Back to Brighton.

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Speaker 3: I'm kind of getting creative here on how I want

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Speaker 3: to play this, and I was looking at some of

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00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:03,680
Speaker 3: the team total props. You know, we've talked nausey about Wolves.

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Speaker 3: I don't have to get into the numbers there, but

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Speaker 3: the Brighton team total over one and a half is

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Speaker 3: plus two to ten. If you want to get really

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Speaker 3: crazy and expect this to be a back and forth

342
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 3: game between two teams that don't have a ton on

343
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Speaker 3: the line, I think.

344
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Speaker 2: Over two looks decent. I also like the Brighton.

345
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Speaker 3: Team total over two and a half plus seven fifty,

346
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Speaker 3: So maybe a little bit of like an escalator prop

347
00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:22,880
Speaker 3: kind of thing our power. Brendan Anderson over at the

348
00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,160
Speaker 3: basketball side of things likes to do those with props.

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Speaker 2: I don't hate that kind of look here.

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Speaker 3: Not sure exactly how I'm going to play if I'm

351
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,240
Speaker 3: going to play it in those props yet, but I'm

352
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Speaker 3: definitely playing Brighton on the drawn no bet line at

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Speaker 3: minus one oh five minus one ten.

354
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Speaker 2: I think it minus one twenty two. So I like

355
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Speaker 2: the Sills a lot.

356
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Speaker 3: I've been pretty low on Wolves. I think they're going

357
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Speaker 3: to continue to fade down the stretch here. Their schedule

358
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:44,480
Speaker 3: is really tough, so there's not going to be a

359
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,320
Speaker 3: ton of great fade spots given that they still play

360
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,200
Speaker 3: Chelsea Liverpool. But this is one where I'm definitely fading them.

361
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:53,760
Speaker 4: All right. This is an interesting one because obviously it

362
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Speaker 4: has a lot to do with the relegation battle, but

363
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Speaker 4: I think it's a good spot to talk about kind

364
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Speaker 4: of just how the betting market works at soccer, because

365
00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,679
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people would be surprised to

366
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,680
Speaker 4: see Watford as a favorite, even at home against Burnley,

367
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,440
Speaker 4: given the form of the two teams Watford plus one

368
00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,159
Speaker 4: sixty five Burnley plus one seventy five, the drussiting there

369
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,360
Speaker 4: pus two twenty the yeah, and I'm sure like it's

370
00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,360
Speaker 4: you're talking about the slightest of favorites here, but Watford's

371
00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 4: lost ten in a row at home. Burnley are looking

372
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,399
Speaker 4: like Pep's Barcelona with the way they're They're just running

373
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Speaker 4: rampant over teams to save off relegation and Watford basically

374
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Speaker 4: are done like they do have something technically to play for.

375
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 4: Burnley is a team they are chasing to for survival.

376
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,280
Speaker 4: This would cut it to a six point gap. I'll

377
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,280
Speaker 4: set it up real quick, Villa thirty seven points, Leads

378
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,120
Speaker 4: thirty four, Burnley thirty one, and then the relegation zone

379
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 4: right now, beautiful, beautiful evert In twenty nine, Watford twenty two,

380
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,840
Speaker 4: Norch twenty one, Watford, Burnley and Leeds have played one

381
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:55,040
Speaker 4: more game than Evert and Villa, So you know that

382
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,680
Speaker 4: Roy Hodgson's gonna have this one circled saying like, look, gents,

383
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,879
Speaker 4: this is our last gap here. If we're gonna make

384
00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:02,960
Speaker 4: a run, if we're gonna go on a great escape here,

385
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 4: it's gonna have to happen with Burnley. Meanwhile, I think

386
00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 4: everybody in the kind of in the betting market, everyone

387
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 4: in who follows the Premier League is just gonna expect

388
00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,320
Speaker 4: Burnley to roll here with the way they've been playing

389
00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,160
Speaker 4: and the fact that Watford is, like I said, they're

390
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,440
Speaker 4: on this historic ten match home losing streak, they don't

391
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,000
Speaker 4: have a draw, they don't have a point in months

392
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Speaker 4: at Vicarage Road. So I guess it would be surprising.

393
00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:29,679
Speaker 4: I guess if you are someone who maybe doesn't pay

394
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 4: attention to just how these markets truly work, to see

395
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 4: Watford as a slight favorite. But I actually think they

396
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,240
Speaker 4: might have a little bit of value here, especially if

397
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,240
Speaker 4: this number keeps ticking up. I'll be looking towards Watford

398
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,720
Speaker 4: to get off the schneid and perhaps make this relegation

399
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 4: fight a little bit trickier for Burnley than people think.

400
00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,040
Speaker 4: BJ Hornet's clarits where you're going.

401
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I make Watford plus one sixty three,

402
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,199
Speaker 1: so right on with what the market has. And the

403
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,159
Speaker 1: reason for that is because Watford has just been so

404
00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 1: unlucky under Roy Hodgson eight minus nineteen actual goal differential

405
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,920
Speaker 1: since he took over. They're only a minus seven point

406
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,879
Speaker 1: nine expected GOLDI French, and a lot of that positive

407
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:11,040
Speaker 1: aggression is probably gonna come offensively because they've only scored

408
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,160
Speaker 1: eight goals off of thirteen expected during his time in charge.

409
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:16,920
Speaker 1: You know, the bad news for Watford in this one

410
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:18,639
Speaker 1: is defensively they've been trying to set up in a

411
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,719
Speaker 1: four to four to two, but this match they are

412
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 1: cited last in the Premier League and crosses allowed into

413
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,360
Speaker 1: the penalty area, and they're also allowed the fourth most

414
00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 1: expected goals off of set pieces, two really bad things

415
00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,639
Speaker 1: if you're gonna play Burnley and listen, listen Burnley. You

416
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 1: mentioned Mike, they look like Pep Guardiola's you know, Barcelona

417
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:39,719
Speaker 1: Manchester City sides right now under Mike the management of

418
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 1: Mike Jackson and Ben me the offense looks for vitalized

419
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,679
Speaker 1: four point one expected goals in and they're three matches

420
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,680
Speaker 1: in charge. They're averaging one point four to eight expected

421
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 1: goals for match in the last five and I think

422
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 1: what's really caused that is desperation. The relegation battle has

423
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 1: caused them to play more open, take more chances going

424
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 1: forward than they normally would. In the additions of wild

425
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 1: Waghorst and Maxwell Corney has really really benefited an offense

426
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,439
Speaker 1: that for the longest time, with just Chris Wood and

427
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,440
Speaker 1: Ashley Barnes, has been very stagnant up top. Now they

428
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 1: actually have some pace going down the side with Corney Burnley,

429
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 1: though their matches have just become chaotic. I mean two

430
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 1: point eight total expected goals per match in their last nine. Defensively,

431
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 1: they've been really bad over that time frame, one point

432
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:29,480
Speaker 1: seven expected goals allowed per match. I mean Watford, you

433
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 1: mentioned michae they're going to get relegated, but this is

434
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 1: for them to have a mathematical shot.

435
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 4: This is it.

436
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,399
Speaker 1: They win this one, they have a mathematical shot. So

437
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,679
Speaker 1: with the pressure of relegation on both these teams, I

438
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 1: do think we're going to see a wide open type

439
00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,119
Speaker 1: of fair whether Whereas if this match was being played

440
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 1: in October, I would probably be sitting here and being like, man,

441
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 1: I'm really looking at a draw or an under. But

442
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 1: given the pressure that both these clubs are under, I

443
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:58,159
Speaker 1: think we're going to see a wide open game with

444
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 1: the chances at both ends. So I have two point

445
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 1: six three both projected, so I love over two and

446
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 1: a half goals at plus one ten.

447
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 4: Everton they're minus one ten right now to be relegated.

448
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 4: Burnley plus one sixty leads three to one. Yeah, sure,

449
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,479
Speaker 4: Burnley's been impressive. They did beat Southampton and Wolverhampton. Those

450
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 4: games were at home wolves Southampton not all that much

451
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:21,920
Speaker 4: to play for. I do think Burnley was a little

452
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 4: bit lucky in both to not concede, so it's and

453
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 4: also those those matches came on the heels of an oppressive,

454
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 4: gutty draw at west Ham, but west Ham was in

455
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 4: a tough spot as well. And if you go one

456
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 4: match further than that, they lost to Norch two nothing right,

457
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 4: So it's not like this team. They're the type of

458
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,360
Speaker 4: team that, yeah, like their their typical Burnley. They will

459
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 4: surprise you by by pulling one over on mid table sides.

460
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 4: But would anybody if you said to anybody three months ago,

461
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 4: say hey, Watford's playing Watford is going to beat Burnley

462
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 4: on April thirtieth to one. Be like, yeah, that sounds

463
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 4: probably right, you know, that's that's the type of kind

464
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 4: of results we'd expect, Anthony. I think you're you're looking

465
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 4: that way to the same kind of situation as BJA,

466
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 4: that this should be actually a pretty entertaining relegation battle.

467
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: Yeah.

468
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 3: I mean, I thought we'd get Burnley as a favorite

469
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 3: here and I could fade them. We didn't get that,

470
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 3: you know, And I guess the market isn't quite getting

471
00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 3: to the Burnley overrated yet narrative. And I think we're

472
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,479
Speaker 3: getting there as they get toward the next few matches

473
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 3: against Villa and their other matches left against. I think

474
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 3: they have Newcastle left on the schedule. We were just

475
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 3: talking about.

476
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 4: Appreci twice Newcastle Tottenham. I think that right.

477
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 3: And so what happens is these relegation teams and these

478
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 3: must win spots tend to get inflated. And we're going

479
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 3: to see that in a second when we talk about

480
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 3: another team that's near and dear to Michael's heart. But

481
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 3: when we look at the numbers here, my number similar

482
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 3: to bj makes Watford a small favorite. I'm a little

483
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 3: smaller than him at one seventy two. So I don't

484
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 3: want to play Watford here because if I'm not even

485
00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 3: going to get the good number.

486
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 2: I mean, Burnley is.

487
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 3: Playing much better and I don't know how much of

488
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 3: it is the relegation desperation. It's just Mike Jackson has

489
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 3: kind of taking the grip off the rains a little

490
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 3: bit and let him go. I mean, they were playing

491
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,199
Speaker 3: some great stuff against Southampton I thought, and the Wolves

492
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 3: match they were definitely vulnerable in transition and Wolves was

493
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 3: not able to take advantage of it. Southampton created plenty

494
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 3: of chances, they were not as defensively solid. I think

495
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 3: that is going to be a trend going forward, and

496
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 3: I think for that reason, even though it didn't quite

497
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 3: come off for me with the Burnley team total over

498
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 3: one and a half in the last match, I'm going

499
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 3: back to goals with these games and I'm going both

500
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 3: teams to score minus one twenty five. I just really

501
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 3: don't believe much in the Burnley defense at all. I

502
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 3: think they've run extremely well in the last few three

503
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 3: four matches, and like mikel said, it wasn't that long ago.

504
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 3: They did lose to no at norch so their defense

505
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 3: is not traveled as well as it's been at home.

506
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 3: All that contributes for me into playing the both teams

507
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 3: to score at a cheaper number for this Burnley team.

508
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 4: Mid table clash next Southampton plus one forty Crystal Palace

509
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 4: plus two h five to draw here is plus two

510
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 4: to forty five Palace off I think a relatively unlucky

511
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 4: draw against Leeds at home, which they played well. I

512
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 4: thought it was an impressive effort, especially in the middle

513
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 4: of the park from Patrick Fierr's side. A couple of

514
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 4: chances went left begging. We've talked about Palace's home road

515
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 4: splits all season. Much much better team, one of the

516
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 4: better mid table sides at home in the Premier League

517
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 4: and not as good on the road. They don't travel well.

518
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 4: But with the Southampton team, the results are just all

519
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 4: over the place, completely scattershot. They're coming off a match

520
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 4: against their south coast rival. This one is a little

521
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 4: bit you know, it's not are they on the beach perhaps,

522
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 4: but you know, both of these sides don't really have

523
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 4: much to play for, whereas Palace, I guess you know

524
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 4: they're thirty eight points. They'll want to get to that

525
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,120
Speaker 4: forty point mark to just ensure they're stafe the end.

526
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 4: I think, you know, this is a team that has

527
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 4: really made an effort to continue to prove doubters wrong

528
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 4: and get towards that top that top half finish under

529
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 4: in Viera's first season, and they're good, Like you know,

530
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 4: we can take away the intangible and trying to get

531
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 4: into the heads of players. It's just this Crystal Palace

532
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 4: team in the Southampton team. I just don't think there's

533
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 4: not much that separates them considering what we've seen this season.

534
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 4: So I like Palace at better than two to one here,

535
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 4: so I'll be going to back them again, probably back

536
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 4: them more than any team I think this entire season.

537
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 4: Maybe Brentford to be the only other team that comes close.

538
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 4: But you know, they've treated people pretty well here. So

539
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 4: Pallas at plus two hundred or better for me, BJ,

540
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 4: what do you got?

541
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: Yeah? I agree Chris Palace Roanobet at plus one twenty.

542
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 1: But you could say this match means nothing to either side.

543
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 1: They're both pretty much comfortably in the middle of the table,

544
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 1: which is true. But I mean Palace is in much

545
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: better form than Southampton at the moment. They obviously didn't

546
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 1: get their result they deserved. Like you said, on Monday night,

547
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: too profect goals was two too point four against Leeds

548
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: and now they get to play a Southampton team that

549
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: plays a very similar style to what Leeds has played

550
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 1: on Embielsa and or Jesse Marsh. I mean, Southampton defensively

551
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,200
Speaker 1: is even worse than Leads in terms of allowing high

552
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,199
Speaker 1: quality chances. They've allowed fifty six big scoring chances in

553
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 1: thirty four matches and they just conceded three big scoring

554
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: chances to Brighten this past weekend. Crystal Palace, listen, They're

555
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 1: not the most prolific offense, but they are tenth in

556
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 1: the Premier League in big scoring chances and I had

557
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 1: two at Seher's Park against Southampton earlier this season. Pallace's

558
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 1: counter pressing gave Leads a ton of prime and issues

559
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:24,919
Speaker 1: on Monday night, and I think that's going to be

560
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: have the same effect on Southampton. I mean, Palace's pressure

561
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 1: success rate on Monday was around thirty three percent and

562
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 1: their passes per defensive action was five point six. Southampton's

563
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 1: fourteenth in the Premier League in offensive pass per defensive actions.

564
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 1: So this is not the best matchups for them, especially considering,

565
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 1: like I've already mentioned, since the calendar turned to twenty

566
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 1: twenty two, Southampton's allowing one point seventy four expected goals

567
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 1: for match only Norwich has allowed more expected goals during

568
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: that time frame. So I have this match predicted right

569
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: at a pick them, So for you give me Kystal

570
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 1: Palace john O Bett at plus one twenty. I think

571
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,959
Speaker 1: that's a fantastic price for Patrick Fiere's men.

572
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 4: A good one here at twelve thirty on Saturday leads

573
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 4: there plus eight to fifty at home hosting City minus

574
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 4: three twenty. The draw here is plus four seventy five.

575
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 4: We've talked about City and Liverpool City one point ahead.

576
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 4: Liverpool will be playing five hours earlier on Saturday, so

577
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,239
Speaker 4: City will have the luxury of knowing what they need

578
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 4: to get out of this game to keep pace in

579
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 4: the title chase. And this is a matchup that's gonna

580
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 4: You're gonna hear a lot about this about how Cities

581
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,719
Speaker 4: kind of just wiped leads past couple of times. It

582
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 4: was a seven nothing last time these two plays something

583
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 4: like that, But that was Marcelo Bielsa, Jesse Marers should

584
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 4: be a little bit more pragmatic and less naive in

585
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 4: terms of how he sets up this team leads, though

586
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 4: their offense is start to sputter a bit. One point

587
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 4: two seven expectacles for across their last two matches, and

588
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 4: this is a weird spot for them considering what they

589
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 4: have to do in the relegation battle. Like I said,

590
00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 4: Leads thirty four points, Burnley thirty one. In twenty nine

591
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 4: Leeds and Burnley played one more than Everdon. But this

592
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 4: is the run in for Leeds home to City, away

593
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 4: to Arsenal, home to Chelsea, home to Brighton, away to

594
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 4: bright Brentford, So those are fifteen possible points. They're going

595
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 4: to be underdogs in those first three for sure, and

596
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 4: then it's going to basically be a toss up in

597
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 4: those last two. So they're not out of it, is

598
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,199
Speaker 4: basically the point I'm trying to make. And if they do,

599
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 4: they're going to need to pull probably pull a point

600
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 4: from one of these first three games or win to

601
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 4: avoid really getting sucked into it. And this just probably

602
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 4: isn't the spot. I mean, the number on City's probably

603
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 4: little too inflated considering like Liverpool, they've just been playing

604
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 4: a ton of soccer. They just played a ridiculous match

605
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 4: against Real Madrid in the midweek which they won for

606
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 4: to three, and then they'll have to face the prospect

607
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 4: of going to the bernabout next week a week from today.

608
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 4: So it's a bad spot for City. But I think

609
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 4: the matchup is too tough. I would lean towards Leeds

610
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 4: at a big number, but it likely be a pass

611
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 4: for me in a match that could go off the

612
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 4: rails in a number of different ways. Anthony, you are

613
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 4: actually pretty confident that Leeds can make this tight.

614
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is the whole you know, is

615
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 2: play for me.

616
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 3: I have not loved fading City this season, but I

617
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 3: think this is a really good spot to do it.

618
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 3: They just had that enthralling four to three thriller with

619
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 3: Real Madrid on Tuesday. They're going to have another fixture

620
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 3: on Wednesday in the Champions League at Real Madrid. They

621
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 3: have an injury crisis in defense and it's really showing

622
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 3: its head here. I mean, Cancello will be back, which

623
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 3: will help them on the left side, but who's playing

624
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 3: right back. I mean, Fernandinho looked really bad defensively.

625
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 2: Kyle Walker is probably not going.

626
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,479
Speaker 3: To be rushed back for this match if they can

627
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 3: have him, because they'd rather have him, you know, give

628
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 3: him an extra couple of days to get ready for

629
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 3: Wednesday in Madrid. If they can have him for that match,

630
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 3: it's much more important match. So I'm gonna take leads

631
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 3: plus one and a half because I do think we've

632
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 3: seen a significant improvement in leads since.

633
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 2: Marsh took over.

634
00:29:57,960 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 3: And I understand the schedule has not been that hard,

635
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: have not played any of the big sides, but I've

636
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 3: been overall impressed by their defensive solidity, not con seeing

637
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 3: a lot of big scoring chances. Palace did create a

638
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 3: good number of shots and they did the twenty three

639
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 3: shots in the match, but no big scoring chances, and

640
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 3: I think that's really a difference from what we've seen

641
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 3: from the Leeds teams of the past under Bielsa.

642
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: Now they're in a more defensive press.

643
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 3: Calvin Phillips's presence in the middle is huge for them,

644
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 3: and they have done a good job in just kind

645
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 3: of being pragmatic and conservative enough to see out results.

646
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 3: And so I think this is going to be a

647
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 3: tricky spot for City. I do, and so of all

648
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 3: the City matches left this might be the one I'm

649
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 3: most worried about if I were a City ticket holder,

650
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 3: a City fan, because I do think leads can cause

651
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 3: some proms here.

652
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 4: It's an interesting scenario too, because going into that Liverpool

653
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 4: Everdem match, the kind of narrative around Everden was, you know,

654
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 4: just try to keep Burnley's goal differential in play. Guys,

655
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 4: Burnley has the I think they're two goals ahead of

656
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 4: Evertten in terms of goal differential. Tastes a tie, it's

657
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 4: a tie. Leeds goal differential is going to be the

658
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 4: worst among the relegation teams by far. I think they're

659
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 4: like thirteen or fourteen goals adrift, something pretty crazy. And

660
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 4: this is the type of match where like sure like

661
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 4: they love to scratch out a draw, but it doesn't

662
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 4: behoove them to, you know, try to keep it respectable.

663
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 4: If if say City goes up to Neil, it's not

664
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 4: like leads are going to say, you know what, like

665
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 4: let's try to let's limit the goal differential here and

666
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 4: stay in this game. And because of the you know,

667
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 4: the tie breaker. So I think it's an interesting spot

668
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 4: if if you know, for over better because I do

669
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 4: think it could go off the rails in that regard,

670
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 4: as Leeds would probably just throw caution in the wind

671
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 4: if they do go down BJ You're kind of looking

672
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 4: that way too.

673
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love over three and FF goals a plus

674
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: one twenty five, and honestly, the match against Real Madrid

675
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: this pet on Tuesday is giving me a little bit

676
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 1: more confidence in doing that because of, like what Anthony mentioned,

677
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: the problems that exist right now for Manchester City defensively

678
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 1: with now with John Stones especially being out, He's been

679
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 1: the one who's basically been filling in at right back.

680
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: So is it gonna be Fernandinho, It's gonna be Nathan

681
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 1: Ake or who's gonna actually play out there on the right.

682
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 1: But in this type of matchup, you know, leads, listen,

683
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: there are some inflated numbers here. You know the seven nil,

684
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: the famous seven nil loss at City where City created

685
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: three and a half expected goals, Leads had to play

686
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,560
Speaker 1: a lot of academy players, there was some COVID and

687
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 1: injury issues going on at that time. But leads against

688
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 1: the Big Six this year have allowed twenty seven expecting

689
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 1: goals in nine matches, essentially three expecting goals per match.

690
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: So I understand that they've been playing better under Jesse Marsh,

691
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 1: but like Anthony mentioned, they haven't played anybody really that good.

692
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: I mean, last three matches allowed one point seven expected

693
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 1: goals south to Southampton, allowed one point two to Watford,

694
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 1: then allowed two to Crystal Palace on Monday. So in

695
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 1: terms of this getting off the rails, I totally agree

696
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: with you, Michael, because City when playing with the lead

697
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: this year in the Premier League is averaging round two

698
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 1: and a half expected goals per ninety minutes, and leads

699
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 1: when they're playing from behind is allowing around two point

700
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: two expected goals per match. So it very, very easily

701
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: could get off the rails. And I understand, you know,

702
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 1: Leeds will probably play a little bit more cautious under

703
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: Jesse Marsh than they would with Bielsa. I mean under Bielsa,

704
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: he that's seven nil. He just kept going and going

705
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 1: and going and trying to press and it clearly wasn't working.

706
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: But you know, he was like, what do we have

707
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 1: to lose? Who cares if we lose seven? Not thinking well,

708
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 1: gold differential might matter as we can get down to

709
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 1: the relegation about But yeah, I have three around three

710
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: point six goals projected, so three and a half at

711
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: plus one twenty five. I think it's tremendous value because

712
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 1: City they do have the ability of rotate guys and

713
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 1: like you saw against Watford, when guys like Gabrielle Hayeseus

714
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 1: or Jack Grealish who or guys who are maybe not

715
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 1: seeing the field that much get a chance to play

716
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 1: and prove themselves, will they earn another start under Guardiola,

717
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 1: just like Gabrielle Hayesus did against Real Madrid this week.

718
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 1: So I think you'll see a motivated City squad in

719
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 1: terms of their attack of guys like Grealish, Royan Sterling

720
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 1: Weber who are trying to get into that squad for

721
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 1: the second leg against a Madrid. So yeah, I love

722
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: over three and enough goals at plus one twenty five.

723
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 4: I'd be interested to see how let's say Liverpool drops

724
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,839
Speaker 4: points to Newcastle. Hypothetically, I would be interested to see

725
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 4: how the market moves. I'm not saying this actional in

726
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 4: any way for this one, because then you can think, oh,

727
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:18,439
Speaker 4: maybe Pep will rotate even more, knowing that they don't

728
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 4: need to Liverpool then put the pressure on it. They

729
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 4: need to win to usurp their spot back. Just a

730
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 4: little betting thing to keep in mind there. All right,

731
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 4: let's flip the page to Sunday. Now, big one at

732
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 4: Goodison Park, Everton on near five to one plus four

733
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 4: seventy five. I think it might tick up. They are

734
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 4: hosting Chelsea minus one fifty. The draw here is plus

735
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 4: two seventy. Chelsea and Man United play on Thursday. We're

736
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 4: recording this on Wednesday, so we'll see how that goes.

737
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 4: This will be Chelsea's ninth game in a month. They're

738
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 4: third and seven days and fifth in two weeks. Meanwhile, Everyden, Yeah,

739
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 4: they played Liverpool in a derby on Sunday, but they

740
00:34:56,040 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 4: rested yer Amina, they rested Fabian Dell Dominic Calvert. Lewin's

741
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 4: been out again. There are kind of different reports and

742
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 4: if you will be fit for this one or if

743
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 4: you will even play, if you guys, because he's been

744
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 4: out of form. But they did look at cohesive defensive

745
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 4: unit against Liverpool, especially in the first half. I'd expect

746
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 4: them to be a little bit more buccaneering in this

747
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 4: one against Chelsea, but at home. Encouraging signs from Everdence

748
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 4: seven wins to draw, seven losses, which is just so

749
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 4: much better than what they've been on the road with

750
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 4: twenty one goals score twenty goals against and they expected

751
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 4: goals are basically in line with those numbers, So it'll

752
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 4: be interesting to see where this number ends up depending

753
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 4: on how Chelsea plays against United. A win there really

754
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 4: does just cement their spot there in the top three.

755
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 4: So it could be a situation where Thomas tookle maybe

756
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 4: give some guys a breather as they look to gear

757
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 4: up for the FA Cup semifinal in a couple of weeks.

758
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:54,720
Speaker 4: So it's a trickier spot in terms of the amount

759
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 4: of mileage on the legs and just overall fatigue for Chelsea,

760
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:01,799
Speaker 4: but they are just a much better side than ever did.

761
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 4: I do think though, that the number on everytten at

762
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 4: home should be high enough here to have a shot. Anthony,

763
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 4: you disagree.

764
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is just the number for me. I can't

765
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 2: get there.

766
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 3: I mean I've got Chelsea minus one and forty five

767
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 3: only minus one twenty one twenty five spot's good for

768
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,720
Speaker 3: Everton there at home. They're desperate, they need the points.

769
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 3: Chelsea's kind of relaxed, chilling, but I mean they didn't

770
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 3: seem that way against west Ham last weekend when they

771
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 3: had twenty five shots and two and a half expected

772
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 3: goals and were pushing all the way till the end

773
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 3: for the winners. So yeah, this has end up being

774
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 3: probably a stay away from me. I don't really want

775
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 3: to bet on Chelsea. I haven't really wanted to do

776
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 3: that most of the season, but yeah, the number is

777
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,720
Speaker 3: not good enough for me to get involved with Everton either,

778
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:42,240
Speaker 3: so I'm staying away.

779
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, And similar to that Leeds City match where I

780
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 4: was saying, like, I want to how the market will

781
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 4: react if you know, Liverpool drops points or if they

782
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 4: pick up points against Newcastle earlier in the morning Burnley.

783
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 4: If Burnley beats Watford and let's say leads and City,

784
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 4: you know, maybe leads, it's a point against City or

785
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 4: pulls a stunner, then it would basically turn this into

786
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 4: a must win for Everton rather than I must not

787
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,280
Speaker 4: lose situation where they need to go get the three points.

788
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 4: So another you know, keep in mind here that if

789
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 4: and then if Burnley loses, like who knows how this

790
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 4: market will react. But I do think that if, like

791
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 4: you said, like it's it's it's tough to lay this

792
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,520
Speaker 4: kind of number with with this Chelsea team given the spot. Uh,

793
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 4: and I do think Everton should be able to at

794
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 4: least keep this game tight enough where they can if

795
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 4: they can finish off a chance or two, maybe squeeze

796
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 4: out a point or three, let's hope to God. Otherwise,

797
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 4: maybe I won't leave you be on this podcast next

798
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 4: year because I'll be I'll be doing the Championship one.

799
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 1: All right, I'll join you on that one. I'll do

800
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:43,880
Speaker 1: double duty and join you.

801
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, Everton at Preston North North End, All right? Joining

802
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 4: about Uh Spurs Anthony Spurs, Uh, losers of a lot

803
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 4: of points lately dropping points left and right. There might

804
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 4: is two twenty two matches. Yeah, I mean there's.

805
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 3: Wage by the way, Uh to Spurs fades cash is hurt.

806
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 3: People told me they were the hottest team in the league.

807
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 3: How can you bet against Tottenham? Well, bet against Spots.

808
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 3: I have a lot of friends who told me that

809
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 3: I was crazy for betting against Tottenham.

810
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 4: We'll lead to see the receipts on those Spurs.

811
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 2: People who told me don't bet against Arsenal.

812
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 4: We need to see the receipts on those ones too.

813
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 3: Yeah.

814
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:26,280
Speaker 4: Look, Joe Public, I think you're talking to shadows here

815
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 4: because we are all sure, we were all going we

816
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 4: were all going against.

817
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 3: This podcast was all over those Spurs fade spots. Yeah,

818
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 3: I'm talking to people in my social circles.

819
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,240
Speaker 4: Well, those Spurs their minds two twenty taking on Lester

820
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,720
Speaker 4: six to one. The draw here is plus three seventy Lester.

821
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 4: They're playing Roma. They have a game Thursday. We are

822
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,919
Speaker 4: recording this once again on Wednesday, and then they play.

823
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 4: They'll play the second leg the following Thursday. We knew

824
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 4: that offensive regression was coming for Tottenham. It did come

825
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 4: against Brentford and Brighton, and now they've only created one

826
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 4: point one expected goals over their last two matches in

827
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 4: those matches against Brighton. Against Brighton and Brentford, this should

828
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 4: be a much different type of scenario. And I actually

829
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 4: think that this sets up pretty well for a Totten

830
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 4: to blowout of all things, now that we faded them

831
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 4: back on the bandwagon here, I think Leicester like they're

832
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 4: such a susceptible defense that and with them comfortable in

833
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 4: the middle of the table and have their sights set

834
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 4: on those European semi finals with Roma, you should get

835
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 4: a chance here for Tottenham to cruise to victory. You know,

836
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 4: it feels like three nothing even that feels like what

837
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 4: this game is going to play out to at least

838
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,480
Speaker 4: like even even if it doesn't get there the final result.

839
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 4: That's that's how I feel like the game state will.

840
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:43,800
Speaker 4: And we've talked a lot about how this Leicester defense

841
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 4: just continues to overperform. They got healthier, so that is

842
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 4: part of the equation. But you've just been so lucky

843
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,839
Speaker 4: all season. So a good spot I think to back

844
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 4: Tottenham minus one and a half plus one thirty five.

845
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:57,880
Speaker 4: Don't hate anything, even if you want to get crazy

846
00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 4: with like a minus two and a half two at

847
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,799
Speaker 4: a big number. That's where'll be going, Anthony, what about

848
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 4: your Spurs?

849
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 2: There's a home run spot for Tottenham.

850
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 3: I mean two back to back disappointing performances against underrated

851
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 3: defenses and Brentford and Brighton, two teams that we love

852
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,280
Speaker 3: to bet on. Leicester City bottom five defense to almost

853
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 3: every metric, every category has major issues guarding this contest system.

854
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 3: I mean they allowed three point seven expected goals to

855
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:25,240
Speaker 3: Tottenham when they played at home earlier this year. Of course,

856
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 3: that was the famous Steven Bergvine final minute brace where

857
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:29,439
Speaker 3: he scored two.

858
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 2: To flip the result.

859
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 3: But really, I mean it was a very deserved three

860
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 3: points for Spurs. They had three point seven expected goals

861
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 3: well over twenty shots. They were the totally dominant side.

862
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 3: Now they're at home, they're more desperate team. They need

863
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 3: the points and Lester has, like you said, that sandwich

864
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 3: spot with Europa leagueuse me, europe A Conference League, which

865
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 3: is far more important for their future than this match,

866
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 3: could see some rotation as well. The number is inflated

867
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: for me a little bit. Still could be a good

868
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 3: moneyline parlay piece. Haven't found what I'm going to parlay

869
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 3: it with yet, but I think I'm gonna end up

870
00:40:57,520 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 3: doing that again with Tottenham here in a smash spot

871
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 3: at home. Also, don't hate the idea of Lane the

872
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 3: one and a half. I do think they are going

873
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 3: to route Lester, who, as we've talked about on this podcast,

874
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 3: is due for some negative regression.

875
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 4: E J. I know you don't really have much from

876
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 4: a betting perspective here, but if you want to weigh.

877
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 1: In, yeah, I don't have much. It's the Tottenham yo, yo,

878
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 1: and they're doing the same thing that Arsenal's doing. Just

879
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 1: you know, one teams up, the other teams down. We'll

880
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 1: just keep going like this. I mean, this is a

881
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: great spot for them. They relatively should win this one.

882
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 1: If they don't. Top four might be Syonara by North

883
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 1: London Army time. But this is an easy pass man

884
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 1: to them. At minus twenty three the total of three

885
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: point two, So not really much value on anything for

886
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: me in this match.

887
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 4: Let's keep talking about that batically. Top four here west

888
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 4: Ham plus three fifty hosting Arsenal Bej's Arsenal minus one

889
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,919
Speaker 4: twenty five. The draw here is plus two eighty. West

890
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 4: Ham has allowed one and a half at least one

891
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:58,439
Speaker 4: and a half expectacles in five straight matches and all competitions.

892
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 4: Their defense has just been they've just been leaky for

893
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 4: a couple months now. They're playing very wide open games,

894
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 4: back and forth style contests, and that makes us a

895
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 4: tough matchup like we love. You know, we always talk

896
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 4: about betting numbers, and I think the number here on

897
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 4: west Ham looks about where I'd want to bet it.

898
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 4: But considering their defense and the fact that Arsenal is

899
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 4: you know, it looks looks a fluid offensive side right now,

900
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 4: I just don't want to bet it, so I'll be

901
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:29,839
Speaker 4: passing here. I'm actually more interested to hear your two thoughts. BJ.

902
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 4: Let's start with you.

903
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the main point here is that west

904
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 1: Ham has no healthy center backs available from this one.

905
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 1: Craig Dawson is suspended after getting a red card against

906
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,800
Speaker 1: Chelsea and he said diap and Kurt Zuma are both injured.

907
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: So what are they going to do? I don't really

908
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 1: know if they play anything like they did against Chelsea.

909
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 1: They it's very very clear that their full focus is

910
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:58,720
Speaker 1: on the Europa League semifinals against Frankfurt, so it wouldn't

911
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 1: shock me if they come out in something very very

912
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,880
Speaker 1: defensive to try to protect their back line that's going

913
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 1: to be incredibly vulnerable against an Arsenal team that listen.

914
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I think this match is going to set

915
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 1: up very similar to the one against Chelsea. I think

916
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: playing an Arsenal you know team total over one and

917
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 1: a half, which is currently setting up minus one twenty five.

918
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 1: I don't really have any value on it from a

919
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 1: projection standpoint, but if you factor in that west Ham

920
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 1: has no healthy center backs and they're at a Sandwich spot,

921
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 1: then I do believe that has value because I just

922
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 1: don't really see how west Ham, given what we've seen,

923
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 1: is going to take this match, you know, as importantly

924
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 1: as they would with the Europa League. And I just

925
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: really don't know how a team with no healthy center

926
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 1: backs is going to set up. Are they going to

927
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 1: play Declan Rice They rested him for the first seventy

928
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: minutes against Chelsea. You know, they rested Jared Bowen, they

929
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 1: rested Mickael Antonio. They're going to have to play something

930
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:57,480
Speaker 1: with Ben Johnson, Aaron Cresswell and somebody else back there

931
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: to potentially hold off our En. So but from a

932
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 1: you know, purely a projection standpoint, I mean, Arsenal minus

933
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 1: one twenty is a tad over valued in the market,

934
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: but this is a great spot for Arsenal, especially given

935
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 1: the fact that that they get west Ham in this

936
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:19,280
Speaker 1: spot on the road. So definitely leaning towards Arsenal. Team

937
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 1: total over one and a half at at minus one

938
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 1: twenty five. But Kylesaka's questionably pick up a thigh injury

939
00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 1: in the last match. But if they start Emil Smith,

940
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 1: Row and Martin Elle along with Odegard, still very very

941
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 1: lethal attack for the Gunners. So great spot for Arsenal

942
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 1: and horrible spot for west Ham.

943
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:40,719
Speaker 4: All right, let's move to United and Brentford Monday Night

944
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 4: Football three pm. United's at home there minus one forty

945
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:48,280
Speaker 4: Brentford plus three sixty that you're always plus two ninety five.

946
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 4: It is almost impossible to lay this kind of price

947
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 4: with United, even at home. I mean, if you told

948
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 4: Alex Ferguson a decade ago that hey, nobody's going to

949
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:00,839
Speaker 4: be want to play minus one forty old Trafford again

950
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 4: when you guys host Brentford, he probably would shoot you

951
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 4: in the head.

952
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:04,279
Speaker 1: Once again.

953
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 4: I should be responsible to note that we are recording

954
00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 4: this before United played Chelsea on Thursday, so change a

955
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 4: little bit. But it really just exactly as to say,

956
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 4: it just does not matter because Brentford have just been

957
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 4: the better team than Manchester United compared to Massage United

958
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:24,360
Speaker 4: for six weeks seven weeks now, since since I guess

959
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 4: about two months I think Ericson made his debut February

960
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 4: twenty sixth, it's two months almost to the day, and

961
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 4: since then they've just been one of the more impressive

962
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 4: teams in the Premier League. Eleven point two expected goes

963
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 4: for over the last seven matches, for Brentford that's one

964
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:44,280
Speaker 4: point six per They just outplayed Tottenham in an unlucky draw.

965
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 4: They are just rolling and the exact opposite is true

966
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 4: of Manchester United. I mean, we do tend to lean

967
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:56,879
Speaker 4: and use numbers much more than the eye test here,

968
00:45:56,920 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 4: But if this is a simple eye test thing, I think,

969
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 4: like you can just see one side here is playing

970
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 4: for one another. They're cohesive and doing everything that they're

971
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 4: supposed to do to manage a ninety minutes of a

972
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 4: soccer game, where the other is just not. Going into

973
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 4: the Chelsea match for United, five point eight spectacles against

974
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,480
Speaker 4: the last three matches, and I mean it's not like

975
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:20,359
Speaker 4: they played a particularly brutal schedule. Shret Liverpool's in there,

976
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 4: but you know Norwich and it's just it's just ugly

977
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 4: for them right now. So plus three sixty I think

978
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 4: is a great number here on the Bees. So I'll

979
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 4: be on the money line Brentford once again at old

980
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:34,720
Speaker 4: Tratford and I don't think I'm gonna be alone here, Anthony, Yeah.

981
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:35,719
Speaker 2: I think it two for two, right.

982
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 3: I thought I wasn't gonna have a good number here

983
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:40,760
Speaker 3: because I mean we're at the bottom bottom of the market.

984
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 3: On United, and we're a kind of a pretty good

985
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:46,399
Speaker 3: spot here for Brentford. They have played well in recent weeks.

986
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 3: They got the great result at home against Spurs, almost

987
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 3: wanted in stoppage time. Probably were the slightly better side overall,

988
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 3: but you know, the number still shows value for me

989
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 3: on the Bees, so I'm happy to.

990
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,799
Speaker 2: Play them again. I feel good about playing them at

991
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: the number.

992
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 3: This is the famous rematch of when Thomas Franks said

993
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 3: we smashed them in the first half, and they did.

994
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 3: And if you go back to the stats in that

995
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:10,359
Speaker 3: first match, yes, United were much better in the second half.

996
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:12,920
Speaker 3: They found more space and behind They had a confident

997
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:15,319
Speaker 3: Marcus Rashford who was playing at his best at that time.

998
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 3: That is no longer the case right now. Paul Pogb

999
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,399
Speaker 3: looks like he's out. So there's a lot of question

1000
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 3: marks about this United attack. It's not gonna be able

1001
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 3: to exploit Brentford with some in behind balls quite as much,

1002
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 3: I don't think. Meanwhile, like you said, the cohesiveness of

1003
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 3: Brentford as a unit, there's a reason that they dominated

1004
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:36,280
Speaker 3: set pieces this year. It's because they are very efficient

1005
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:40,239
Speaker 3: and use analytics and are very well drilled on whether

1006
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 3: it's throw in free kicks, corners. Well, that's been a

1007
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 3: major defensive weakness for United all season. It hasn't really

1008
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 3: gotten better under Ragnik. And at the other end of

1009
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,359
Speaker 3: the pitch, United not going to get much joy off

1010
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 3: of set pieces, only one now two goals for the

1011
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:53,919
Speaker 3: season off of them.

1012
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:55,719
Speaker 2: So I'm playing the beast.

1013
00:47:56,080 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 4: And BJ I mean, I couldn't imagine if if you

1014
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:02,440
Speaker 4: told me you weren't playing Brentford in the spot, I

1015
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 4: would maybe just get sick on the spot.

1016
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 1: No, I mean I've basically faded United. Any chance I

1017
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 1: can get over this stretch and this is another fantastic opportunity.

1018
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 1: So to your point, Michael, since Christian Erickson has come

1019
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 1: in the essentially start you know, every single match for

1020
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 1: Brentford since February twenty six, Brentford has a round a

1021
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:25,839
Speaker 1: plus five expected goal differential United's at minus three. So

1022
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:29,720
Speaker 1: I test numbers tell you that Brentford has been essentially

1023
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:33,040
Speaker 1: eight goals better than United over that time stretch. Now

1024
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:35,799
Speaker 1: you could say, no, well, United's played a top schedule. Yeah,

1025
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 1: that's true, but they've still been very, very poor all

1026
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 1: season long. I mean Brentford, they were by far the

1027
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 1: better team against Tottenham on Saturday one expected goals one

1028
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 1: point six two point six. The common denominator between both

1029
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 1: United and Tottenham is it's two sides that don't provide

1030
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 1: a good amount of pressure. I mean, United was supposed

1031
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 1: to be this amazing pressing team under Ralph Ragnik. Well,

1032
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 1: since he's taken over the twelfth in passes per defensive action.

1033
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 1: Brentford does struggle overall for the season playing through pressure.

1034
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 1: But with Christian Erickson being inside, his ability to play

1035
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:12,799
Speaker 1: on the ball and connect, you know, the play from

1036
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 1: the midfield to the attack, I think has really helped Brentford.

1037
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 1: I mean, since he's been in the squad he has

1038
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 1: a point four XG plus expected assist per ninety rate,

1039
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:24,719
Speaker 1: which just is I really hope he stays with Brentford.

1040
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: Just as a side note, I really hope he doesn't

1041
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 1: leave for one of these bigger clubs because Brentford is

1042
00:49:29,480 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 1: gonna be one of those teams similar to Brighton last

1043
00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:32,480
Speaker 1: year that I think we're gonna have a lot of

1044
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 1: different types of futures on next season and a team

1045
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 1: that I really can make I think, well, I mean

1046
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,320
Speaker 1: we all believe it can make the ascendency up towards

1047
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 1: the top seven. Manthey mentioned it. I mean when these

1048
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 1: two teams met, I thought it was one of the

1049
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 1: more unfair results of the entire season. Brentford losing three

1050
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: one a home to United. So I mean I have

1051
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 1: brent I only have United at minus one o three

1052
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:54,759
Speaker 1: and that number is probably gonna dip when they get

1053
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 1: smashed by Chelsea on Thursday. So Brentford plus half a

1054
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 1: goal plus one fifteen I think has Truman its value.

1055
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:02,799
Speaker 4: All right? That that'll wrap up the Premier League. Let's

1056
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 4: move over to Europe pretty quickly. Here. We'll start with

1057
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:08,760
Speaker 4: the Bundesliga as usual and bj Let's just go right back.

1058
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 1: To yeah, yeah, Cologne. John Obtt minus one twenty playing

1059
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:16,720
Speaker 1: against Augsburg, or as Anthony says, Froudsburg. I mean, Augsburg

1060
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 1: is gonna get really, really lucky not to get relegated

1061
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 1: this season. They've all but secured safety when they beat

1062
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 1: Bochum last weekend, you know, putting them seven points ahead

1063
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:29,640
Speaker 1: of the relegation playoff spot. But their overperformance since the

1064
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:32,440
Speaker 1: beginning of March is a bit drastic. Plus four actual

1065
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:35,880
Speaker 1: world differential versus a minus one point four expect a

1066
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:39,360
Speaker 1: goal differential. Cologne is battling for a Euro up a

1067
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 1: conference league spot, which would be a big deal for

1068
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 1: their club, especially given the fact they were in the

1069
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 1: relegation playoff just last season. They've been in good form.

1070
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 1: They've won three straight matches, creating six point three expected

1071
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:52,960
Speaker 1: goals in the process, and this is a really good

1072
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:54,919
Speaker 1: matchup for them for a couple of reasons. First off,

1073
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,800
Speaker 1: Cologne is one of the best pressing teams in Germany.

1074
00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:00,120
Speaker 1: I mean their first and pass per defensive action can

1075
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 1: im pressure success rate and third and high turnovers. Augsburg

1076
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 1: terrible at playing through pressure their seventeenth in offensive pass

1077
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:10,240
Speaker 1: per defensive action. Secondly, Cologne gets a ton of shots

1078
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 1: off their third and shots per ninety and there are

1079
00:51:13,239 --> 00:51:15,320
Speaker 1: the number one team in Germany in terms of crosses

1080
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 1: completed into the penalty area, while Augsburg is bottom five

1081
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 1: in both those categories. Defensively, and when these two teams

1082
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 1: met earlier this season, Augsburg won two nothing, but it

1083
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 1: was a very unfair result because Cologne won the expected

1084
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:29,359
Speaker 1: goals battle one point two two point seven. So I'm

1085
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 1: expecting a little revenge from Cologne on Saturday. I have

1086
00:51:32,320 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 1: their drawn o bet line projected at minus one forty,

1087
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 1: so I think you're getting some good value on them

1088
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 1: at the current price of minus one twenty.

1089
00:51:38,480 --> 00:51:41,400
Speaker 4: I know, surprise here. I like Mines plus four seventy five.

1090
00:51:42,120 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 4: They are taking on Bayern Munich at home to the

1091
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 4: nine thirty am kick off at Saturday, Munich coming off

1092
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:50,480
Speaker 4: the title clincher in the Bundesliga over their eternal rival

1093
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 4: brusha Dortmann three win win for Bayern. This Mines team

1094
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:58,000
Speaker 4: is just they're They're much better than I think most

1095
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 4: casual people realize when you think about good Bundesliga teams.

1096
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:05,439
Speaker 4: They're first in preventing big scoring chances in Germany's top flight.

1097
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 4: They're fourth in shots per ninety allowed at third in

1098
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 4: box entries for ninety allowed. So this is just a

1099
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:13,680
Speaker 4: really tricky defensive team to break down. And they also

1100
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 4: are I've been steadily approving offensively throughout the season. They're

1101
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 4: sixth in terms of creating big scoring chances and they

1102
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 4: take the fourth most shots per ninety So a good

1103
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 4: spot I think on a good team and a good

1104
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 4: number plus four to seventy five at home. On mind,

1105
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 4: it's getting towards the end of the Bundesliga season here

1106
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 4: and I will certainly miss this team. Anthony. What do

1107
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 4: you have?

1108
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been waiting for my BLFL fade spots. There

1109
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 3: was a couple of them that I was able to

1110
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 3: get in. But they're the worst team in Germany by

1111
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 3: my projections. I have them worst than growth their first

1112
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 3: They have scored two goals in their last eight matches

1113
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,319
Speaker 3: and it's really not that much of an underperformance you

1114
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:54,800
Speaker 3: look at their XG. They've only created about four goals

1115
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:56,799
Speaker 3: in their last or four expected goals rather in their

1116
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 3: last eight matches in the Bundesliga. They finally got on

1117
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:02,280
Speaker 3: the board finally a cleared one expected goal against Coln

1118
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 3: last weekend in the three to one defeat.

1119
00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 2: But their defense has also been terrible.

1120
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 3: I mean they've con seed at least one point eight

1121
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 3: expected goals in each of their last six matches. They

1122
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 3: are a terrible team, and we're finally getting a decent

1123
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 3: price to fade them because Hairta is just on the

1124
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 3: top of relegation.

1125
00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 2: They're in fifteenth.

1126
00:53:19,040 --> 00:53:21,360
Speaker 3: I've got them rated as the fourteenth best team. I

1127
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:24,400
Speaker 3: think they've been a little bit and then they've downgraded

1128
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:26,120
Speaker 3: quite a bit. I mean, they are typically a team

1129
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:27,960
Speaker 3: you'd expect to be in the mid table, safe in

1130
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:32,240
Speaker 3: the mid table, competing even potentially upwards for Europe. Hairta

1131
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 3: team finally starting to find a little bit of form.

1132
00:53:34,680 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 2: Recently.

1133
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 3: They got the huge win over Osburg to get themselves

1134
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:41,320
Speaker 3: out of the relegation zone. They backed it up with

1135
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 3: a win last weekend as well, So Hairta's starting to

1136
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 3: play better and I think what we're going to see

1137
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 3: is that they're going to seal their safety here with

1138
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 3: a win. I like them drawing to bet minus one

1139
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:55,799
Speaker 3: ten at BLFL bilfelt Again. Their attack is so bad.

1140
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 3: They're the worst in the league and they sit in

1141
00:53:57,520 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 3: this deep low block and try to counter, but they're

1142
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 3: not preventing high quality chances when they're doing that. So

1143
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 3: I'm looking to play against BLFL probably one last time

1144
00:54:06,040 --> 00:54:09,279
Speaker 3: before I cash my relegation in futures on them.

1145
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 4: Back to bj fair La Liga.

1146
00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:18,240
Speaker 1: Actually like Athletico Madrid against Athletic Bilbao, basically two similar

1147
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 1: styles of play four four to two low blocks. But

1148
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:24,799
Speaker 1: I do think Athletico is a tad undervalued here in

1149
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 1: the road. And I mean, first off, Athletico Bibo actually

1150
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,440
Speaker 1: allows a ton of shots. They're thirteenth in La Liga

1151
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:32,360
Speaker 1: and shots allowed per ninety But the good news for

1152
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:34,480
Speaker 1: them a lot of them are low quality second and

1153
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 1: big scoring chances allowed. But secondly, Athletico bill Boo allows

1154
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 1: a ton of crosses as well, seventeenth in crosses loud

1155
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:43,920
Speaker 1: in the penalty area and we're facing a four to

1156
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:46,640
Speaker 1: four to two. A lot of where the attack comes

1157
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:48,640
Speaker 1: from is down the flanks and swinging and crosses. I

1158
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 1: know Athletic Athletico doesn't have the high number of crosses

1159
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 1: completed into the penalty area, but Diego Simioni is a

1160
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 1: tactical mastermind and I'm sure he'll know that and want

1161
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 1: to play that this weekend. I mean, what's concerning for

1162
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:05,920
Speaker 1: Athletic Bilbao is their last match against Cadiz. They allowed

1163
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 1: three and a half expected goals and twenty seven shots

1164
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 1: to quite literally the worst offense in La Liga. Before

1165
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:17,120
Speaker 1: that performance, I mean, Cadiz was allowed was around point

1166
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:20,120
Speaker 1: eight expected goals per match, and allowing them to do

1167
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 1: that high of a number is a little bit concerning.

1168
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:25,040
Speaker 1: I mean, Athletico is still the number one defensive team

1169
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:26,440
Speaker 1: in Spain. I don't need to tell you guys that

1170
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 1: zero point seven non penalty expected goals per match. The

1171
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 1: last time these teams faced off was a very sleepy

1172
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:37,399
Speaker 1: zero zero draw. Bill Ballely created point nine expected goals

1173
00:55:37,440 --> 00:55:40,759
Speaker 1: and eleven shot creating actions and six shots, and that

1174
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 1: was with Gio Felix red card in the seventy eighth minutes.

1175
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:47,319
Speaker 1: So Athletico Madrid, Johnodbett at minus one thirty. I'm gonna

1176
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:49,600
Speaker 1: protect myself against a draw, but I do believe it

1177
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:52,640
Speaker 1: has Diego Simeoni's men have some value because they're still

1178
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 1: got to secure a top four spot in Spain.

1179
00:55:56,280 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 4: Anthony, what do you have for Laaliga?

1180
00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:00,719
Speaker 3: Ria associate Dodd and Ryo Yack kind of over to

1181
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:04,279
Speaker 3: in both teams to score for some reason. Rialso see

1182
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 3: Dodd can't score anymore. I don't know what's happened to

1183
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,080
Speaker 3: this attack. They've only scored thirty two goals all season

1184
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 3: from forty four expected goals. Maybe we curse them when

1185
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 3: we put our futures on them to win.

1186
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 1: We use a relative term. There, You cursed it?

1187
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I cursed them. I am a curse.

1188
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:17,439
Speaker 3: By the way, I don't know if I tweeted about

1189
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 3: how Rial with fraud They scored a minute later and

1190
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 3: then tweeted about how City finally exposed in the second half.

1191
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 3: They scored a minute later, So I'm pretty impressive with

1192
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:26,720
Speaker 3: these these Twitter jinxes.

1193
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 2: But anyway back to my pick.

1194
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:30,560
Speaker 3: You know, thirty two goals the season from forty four

1195
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:32,920
Speaker 3: expected and it's gotten really bad the last few matches.

1196
00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 3: Our guy, Alexander Esak we as pod hosts are big

1197
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:39,360
Speaker 3: fans of him. He is disappointed in terms of finishing

1198
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:42,680
Speaker 3: this year. But really the last six matches, they've created

1199
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 3: at least one point two expected goals in all of them,

1200
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:47,720
Speaker 3: and they've played some decent defensive sides from Real batist

1201
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:50,560
Speaker 3: to Barcelona to Sevilla, and yet they just have not

1202
00:56:50,600 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 3: been able to find goals and not scoring in any

1203
00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 3: of those three matches. Pretty concerning, but not worried about

1204
00:56:56,200 --> 00:56:57,879
Speaker 3: it long term. And I do think you'll get You're

1205
00:56:57,880 --> 00:57:00,399
Speaker 3: getting a cheaper price only over here because of that,

1206
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:02,400
Speaker 3: and my have I we talked about that due for

1207
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:04,919
Speaker 3: some positive regression, had been playing better than their numbers

1208
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 3: had suggested. They finally got a good result last weekend,

1209
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:10,279
Speaker 3: first win since December. They backed it up with a

1210
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 3: big win against Barcelona, but again their defense still not

1211
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:16,360
Speaker 3: that impressive. When they've played decent sides in this league.

1212
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 3: They're conceding a good amount of chances and I expect

1213
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:20,280
Speaker 3: it to be the case here. So going over to

1214
00:57:20,720 --> 00:57:21,760
Speaker 3: the both teams to score.

1215
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 4: All right, and now went to Italy Syria, AH beach,

1216
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:25,400
Speaker 4: what do you have.

1217
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:30,280
Speaker 1: The first match and versus Hells Verona Verona. We've talked

1218
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:33,240
Speaker 1: about them quite a bit and their overperformance offensively fifty

1219
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 1: nine goals up around forty seven expected, but they've actually

1220
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 1: drastically underperformed defensively fifty one goals loud off only forty

1221
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 1: two expected. They are still alive for a spot in

1222
00:57:43,640 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 1: the top seven, which would get them into the eurole

1223
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 1: But Conference League, which would be a big deal for

1224
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:50,440
Speaker 1: a club of their size. And Polly pulled off a

1225
00:57:50,480 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 1: big upset over Napoli this past weekend. They beat them

1226
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 1: three to two, came from behind from a two zerol deficit.

1227
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 1: That was their first win in Syria since they beat

1228
00:57:59,240 --> 00:58:03,720
Speaker 1: Napoli one nothing on December twelfth. And Polly has some

1229
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 1: major home road splits which are quite drastic, not the

1230
00:58:08,600 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 1: way you would think. Away from home they have an

1231
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:13,680
Speaker 1: even expected goal differential, but at home they have a

1232
00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:16,720
Speaker 1: minus eleven and a half expected goal Differentially, they're allowing

1233
00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:19,600
Speaker 1: two point zero four expected goals per match, which is

1234
00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 1: by far the worst mark in Syria AD. This is

1235
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 1: a good matchup for Verona, who is a top five

1236
00:58:24,520 --> 00:58:27,760
Speaker 1: pressing team in Syria A by every single metric in

1237
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 1: Polly struggles playing through pressure. Their Polly really struggles at

1238
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 1: creating high quality chances. They're seventeenth in big scoring chances,

1239
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:38,240
Speaker 1: which is good news for Verona, who that's their one

1240
00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 1: weakness defensively, their thirteenth and big scoring chances allowed. I

1241
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:44,400
Speaker 1: have Verona projected as a plus one to twenty road

1242
00:58:44,480 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 1: favorites at Empoli. So John o'bett at even money I

1243
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:49,080
Speaker 1: think has some good value.

1244
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 4: Anthony anything in Syria, Ah yeah, I'm going to take

1245
00:58:53,000 --> 00:58:54,120
Speaker 4: Venizzia plus two.

1246
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:57,000
Speaker 3: I mean this is they're really really bad. I mean

1247
00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:59,600
Speaker 3: minus point nine expect the goal difference per ninety worse

1248
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 3: in the league by far. They have lost now eight

1249
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:05,560
Speaker 3: straight matches in Seria. They have not had a win

1250
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:09,560
Speaker 3: since the Tirno match in February early February. They have

1251
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 3: had one draw since then. So it's been a very

1252
00:59:11,680 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 3: very dark run for this Vaninsia team. And we're not

1253
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 3: really getting the bump in the market that I thought

1254
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:20,840
Speaker 3: we would for a team who is still alive somewhat alive.

1255
00:59:21,760 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 3: Alive is a relative term when you're this bad. But

1256
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:27,000
Speaker 3: they do have a chance still of fighting off relegation.

1257
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:29,440
Speaker 3: They're only about six points out with five matches to play.

1258
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:31,040
Speaker 3: If they were to win a couple of games, they

1259
00:59:31,080 --> 00:59:34,480
Speaker 3: could get themselves back into safety, but not for seeing

1260
00:59:34,560 --> 00:59:36,920
Speaker 3: that in their future. However, I do think at plus two,

1261
00:59:37,400 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 3: Uve has not been very good lately. They got very

1262
00:59:40,880 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 3: fortunate to beat Saswolo on the road on Monday. They

1263
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:48,439
Speaker 3: were outplayed considerably in that game, outplayed by Bologna until

1264
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 3: the last five minutes when Bologne got two red cards,

1265
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 3: which is ridiculous, and then they got the equalizer. And

1266
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:56,200
Speaker 3: we're not impressive against inter Milan either. So I have

1267
00:59:56,360 --> 00:59:59,040
Speaker 3: not been particularly impressed with the Uba team. I think

1268
00:59:59,080 --> 01:00:01,880
Speaker 3: this is the worst eighteen we've seen in a long time,

1269
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 3: and so I just think they're getting a lot of

1270
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 3: market respect here still and I'm just.

1271
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:05,880
Speaker 2: Not buying it.

1272
01:00:06,000 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 3: So holding my nose and I'm playing plus two on Venizzia,

1273
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 3: all right, I PJ league, Oh take it over?

1274
01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:13,479
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1275
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:16,720
Speaker 1: Nice? Plus one oh five on the road at Bordeaux.

1276
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:20,040
Speaker 1: It's desperation time for both these clubs. NIE is fighting

1277
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 1: for a top three spot while Bordeaux is trying their

1278
01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 1: best to get out of the relegation. He's known. With

1279
01:00:25,120 --> 01:00:27,400
Speaker 1: four matches left to play, Niice has done a fantastic

1280
01:00:27,560 --> 01:00:31,000
Speaker 1: job at just dominating the bottom half the table this season,

1281
01:00:31,120 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 1: plus fourteen point six expected goal differential in eighteen matches

1282
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,840
Speaker 1: versus the bottom ten teams in France are also averaging

1283
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 1: one point seventy three expected goals per match in those matches.

1284
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:45,200
Speaker 1: Christoph Galtierre has done a masterful job at just like

1285
01:00:45,280 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 1: he did at LIL last season, revitalizing one of the

1286
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:51,040
Speaker 1: best club the biggest clubs in France's four to four

1287
01:00:51,040 --> 01:00:53,920
Speaker 1: to two system, which was successful at LIL, has been

1288
01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 1: outstanding with Nice last season NIE one point twenty five

1289
01:00:57,960 --> 01:01:01,120
Speaker 1: expected goals per match. Galfier comes in four to four

1290
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:03,880
Speaker 1: to two system one point five to five expected goals

1291
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. When playing out of it, that outstanding

1292
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 1: offense gets to travel to the southwest France to take

1293
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 1: on not only the worst defense in France, but the

1294
01:01:12,600 --> 01:01:16,640
Speaker 1: worst defense in all of Europe. Bordeaux has allowed eighty

1295
01:01:16,760 --> 01:01:19,320
Speaker 1: four goals and thirty four matches, and I've kept just

1296
01:01:19,520 --> 01:01:22,840
Speaker 1: one clean sheet all season long. I understand they've been unlucky.

1297
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:25,000
Speaker 1: If you look at expected goals sixty two point four,

1298
01:01:25,400 --> 01:01:28,080
Speaker 1: that's pretty drastic, But if you're allowing one point eight

1299
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 1: five expected goals for match, that's still really bad. When

1300
01:01:31,160 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 1: these ct has met earlier in this season, Grand it

1301
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:35,480
Speaker 1: was only the third match of the season, Niece completely

1302
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:38,240
Speaker 1: dominated him one four nothing created three point one expected goals.

1303
01:01:38,320 --> 01:01:41,360
Speaker 1: So I have Nicee projected at minus one twenty three,

1304
01:01:41,560 --> 01:01:43,480
Speaker 1: so I like the value on them at plus one

1305
01:01:43,480 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 1: oh five.

1306
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 4: Now let's move on to our favorite underdogs. It did

1307
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:49,400
Speaker 4: it show in the results, but we gained pretty close

1308
01:01:49,440 --> 01:01:51,480
Speaker 4: again last week, and that was a two hundred and

1309
01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:53,840
Speaker 4: eighty six to one shot. If you if you wrap

1310
01:01:53,960 --> 01:01:57,280
Speaker 4: the three picks together, it could have been real live

1311
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 4: if Brentford.

1312
01:01:58,400 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 1: Had not hit there, if Anthony and jinks it, it

1313
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:01,440
Speaker 1: would have been alive.

1314
01:02:02,240 --> 01:02:07,960
Speaker 5: I said, we're live after after like one goal, brilliant

1315
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:11,720
Speaker 5: and yeah, after said and then I guess the Bees

1316
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:13,920
Speaker 5: tied and then Lands tiede right, so yeah.

1317
01:02:14,560 --> 01:02:15,920
Speaker 1: Bees dominated couldn't score.

1318
01:02:16,280 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 3: So anyways, this week, well I'm just gonna say right now,

1319
01:02:20,160 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna get out ahead.

1320
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:21,440
Speaker 2: We are a lot.

1321
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, I feel good about this one for sure.

1322
01:02:25,080 --> 01:02:27,560
Speaker 4: Let's uh, we'll start. We just talked about the Bees,

1323
01:02:27,600 --> 01:02:28,920
Speaker 4: so we'll start with you BJ.

1324
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:31,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brentford plus three sixty. Let's try it again against

1325
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:34,120
Speaker 1: a Manchester United team that has I mean, I've already

1326
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:37,000
Speaker 1: said it, but they've quit, They've quit on the season,

1327
01:02:37,080 --> 01:02:39,439
Speaker 1: they have nothing really left to play for. Their Top

1328
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:42,200
Speaker 1: four hopes are gone. This is a fantastic matchup for

1329
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:44,439
Speaker 1: a Brentford team that finishing inside the top ten would

1330
01:02:44,480 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 1: mean a ton to this club. You know, I've already

1331
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:49,320
Speaker 1: mentioned it. Christian Erickson coming into the side has helped

1332
01:02:49,320 --> 01:02:52,720
Speaker 1: the Bees play through pressure much better. He's really linked

1333
01:02:52,800 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 1: the midfield to the attack. The first time these two

1334
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:57,920
Speaker 1: teams met, I mean it was one of the more

1335
01:02:58,040 --> 01:03:01,120
Speaker 1: unfair results of the entire season. Brentford one unexpectacles two

1336
01:03:01,120 --> 01:03:03,760
Speaker 1: point two to to two, but lost three to one.

1337
01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:06,800
Speaker 1: I have Brentford projected at just around three to one.

1338
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:08,880
Speaker 1: So if you're giving me them at plus three sixty,

1339
01:03:08,960 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 1: I think you're getting some good value on the Bees

1340
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 1: to pull off an upset at Old Trafford.

1341
01:03:14,120 --> 01:03:16,360
Speaker 4: I'm gonna take Mines a shot on Mines here plus

1342
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:20,080
Speaker 4: four seventy five against Bayron Munich, the newly minted was

1343
01:03:20,120 --> 01:03:23,400
Speaker 4: it twenty seven straight time? I don't know what is straight?

1344
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:23,919
Speaker 3: Ten?

1345
01:03:24,040 --> 01:03:24,160
Speaker 4: Ten?

1346
01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 1: Straight?

1347
01:03:24,480 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1348
01:03:24,640 --> 01:03:30,080
Speaker 1: No kidding, your friend, your friend Jurgen Klopp. Yeah yeah.

1349
01:03:30,120 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 4: The tenth straight Bundesliga titles here for Bayern Munich. They

1350
01:03:33,800 --> 01:03:39,040
Speaker 4: just clinched it last week against their eternal rivals Brushah Dortmund,

1351
01:03:39,200 --> 01:03:41,880
Speaker 4: so they should be in a little bit of a

1352
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:44,160
Speaker 4: leuckdown spot here as they will play out the string

1353
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:46,760
Speaker 4: of the rest of their regular season, and Mines are

1354
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:50,920
Speaker 4: just a really strong side. They lead the Bundesliga in

1355
01:03:51,000 --> 01:03:53,520
Speaker 4: terms of preventing big scoring chances. They're fourth and shots

1356
01:03:53,560 --> 01:03:55,960
Speaker 4: for ninety allowed and third in box entries allowed. So

1357
01:03:56,080 --> 01:03:58,040
Speaker 4: a defensive team that should be able to at least

1358
01:03:58,360 --> 01:04:02,520
Speaker 4: snuff some of the bite of this Bayron Munich attack

1359
01:04:02,640 --> 01:04:04,720
Speaker 4: and stay with them. And if they can do that

1360
01:04:04,840 --> 01:04:07,040
Speaker 4: at plus four to seventy five, you're holding a good ticket.

1361
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:09,800
Speaker 4: So I'm going back to both fencing and the boys

1362
01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:12,480
Speaker 4: from Mines. Anthony your favorite dog.

1363
01:04:12,640 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 3: Yeah Leon, plus two to ten on the road against

1364
01:04:16,960 --> 01:04:20,760
Speaker 3: pj's favorite team. The Marseille Boys. Another win from Marseille

1365
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:23,160
Speaker 3: over the weekend. They are looking pretty dandy to be

1366
01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:25,200
Speaker 3: in the Chumpy Owens League next year.

1367
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 1: Next year, yeah, well, I know I cannot wait to

1368
01:04:28,360 --> 01:04:28,720
Speaker 1: save them.

1369
01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:29,760
Speaker 2: We'll see what happens.

1370
01:04:29,800 --> 01:04:33,560
Speaker 3: But as far as this spot goes, I mean, Marseille

1371
01:04:33,640 --> 01:04:37,360
Speaker 3: has a tricky road spot on Thursday at Faienord and

1372
01:04:37,440 --> 01:04:38,760
Speaker 3: I think they're going to struggle there. And I also

1373
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 3: think they're going to struggle this weekend against Leon, team

1374
01:04:40,880 --> 01:04:43,520
Speaker 3: who has played well below both their talent level and

1375
01:04:43,600 --> 01:04:46,880
Speaker 3: their underlying numbers for this entire season. There really should

1376
01:04:46,920 --> 01:04:49,080
Speaker 3: be a top three or four team in France, and

1377
01:04:49,320 --> 01:04:52,160
Speaker 3: Marseille power rated around sixth or seventh if you look

1378
01:04:52,160 --> 01:04:54,960
Speaker 3: at like five thirty eight ratings and they've been fortunate.

1379
01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:57,520
Speaker 3: I mean they're you know, fifth and expected goals against

1380
01:04:57,600 --> 01:05:00,400
Speaker 3: and seventh expected goals four. They've overperformed quite a bit.

1381
01:05:00,560 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 3: To expect some regression at some point for this team.

1382
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:04,720
Speaker 3: They're not the second best team in France. As much

1383
01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:07,160
Speaker 3: as I love them, I will be fating them this weekend.

1384
01:05:07,600 --> 01:05:10,480
Speaker 4: If you parlay those three teams together, Brentford Mines and

1385
01:05:10,600 --> 01:05:14,480
Speaker 4: leone eighty one to one feel really good about that one, Anthony,

1386
01:05:14,720 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 4: your favorite bet in the Premier League this week?

1387
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:18,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go bright and draw no bet Mius

1388
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:20,800
Speaker 2: one oh five on the road against Wolves.

1389
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 3: Wolves have been incredibly fortunate defensively this season. They've overperformed

1390
01:05:24,920 --> 01:05:27,480
Speaker 3: they're expected goals against my about twenty goals and you

1391
01:05:27,560 --> 01:05:29,880
Speaker 3: can explain about half of that because of the brilliance

1392
01:05:29,920 --> 01:05:32,680
Speaker 3: of Jose Saw in the goal. But one, I'm skeptical

1393
01:05:32,720 --> 01:05:34,280
Speaker 3: of how long he's gonna be able to continue that

1394
01:05:34,640 --> 01:05:37,000
Speaker 3: performance in that dominance, given his track record as a

1395
01:05:37,080 --> 01:05:40,120
Speaker 3: keeper is pretty mixed. He's generally probably a positive guy,

1396
01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:42,640
Speaker 3: but no one can sustain this level over a performance,

1397
01:05:42,880 --> 01:05:44,440
Speaker 3: and a lot of it has come from teams just

1398
01:05:44,520 --> 01:05:47,880
Speaker 3: not taking their chances against Wolves when presented opportunities. Brighton

1399
01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:50,720
Speaker 3: should dominate this match. Their top five in possession percentage,

1400
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:53,160
Speaker 3: they get the ball into opponent penalty areas very well

1401
01:05:53,560 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 3: expecting them to be able to do the same and

1402
01:05:55,600 --> 01:05:58,720
Speaker 3: Britain's bigness weakness is against high turnovers and getting caught

1403
01:05:58,720 --> 01:06:01,680
Speaker 3: out in defensive transition. On defense, Wolves doesn't do a

1404
01:06:01,720 --> 01:06:04,080
Speaker 3: lot of pressing. Like Bja mentioned, they are dead last

1405
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:07,160
Speaker 3: in pass per defensive action. The Seagulls have underperformed their

1406
01:06:07,160 --> 01:06:09,400
Speaker 3: attack most of the season. I don't hate chasing the

1407
01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:11,840
Speaker 3: idea of a team total, you know, over one and

1408
01:06:11,840 --> 01:06:14,080
Speaker 3: a half or whatnot. But my best bet is Brighton

1409
01:06:14,240 --> 01:06:16,240
Speaker 3: drawn up bet at minus one oh five I projected

1410
01:06:16,320 --> 01:06:17,320
Speaker 3: at minus one twenty two.

1411
01:06:17,640 --> 01:06:20,920
Speaker 4: My favorite Premier League bet. No surprise here, Brentford the

1412
01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:24,560
Speaker 4: Bees plus three sixty taking on Manchester United on Monday

1413
01:06:24,640 --> 01:06:28,680
Speaker 4: Night Football three pm Eastern Time. This is a surprising

1414
01:06:29,000 --> 01:06:32,520
Speaker 4: number considering the form of these two teams. Since February

1415
01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:36,120
Speaker 4: twenty six, Brentford is five one and two wins draw loss,

1416
01:06:36,400 --> 01:06:39,280
Speaker 4: with fourteen goals scored, seven goals against and a plus

1417
01:06:39,400 --> 01:06:42,760
Speaker 4: five point three expected goal differential. In that same span,

1418
01:06:43,360 --> 01:06:46,560
Speaker 4: once again recording this before United played Chelsea on Thursday,

1419
01:06:47,000 --> 01:06:49,040
Speaker 4: United are two to two in four with a minus

1420
01:06:49,120 --> 01:06:52,400
Speaker 4: three point five expected goal differential. Brentford are just the

1421
01:06:52,680 --> 01:06:55,120
Speaker 4: their better form. They're team that hasn't given up on

1422
01:06:55,200 --> 01:06:57,600
Speaker 4: the season and those two things you cannot say about

1423
01:06:57,640 --> 01:07:00,560
Speaker 4: Manchester United. You have to be crazy to be laying

1424
01:07:00,640 --> 01:07:03,200
Speaker 4: minus one forty five on United, even at home in

1425
01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:05,680
Speaker 4: the spot, So give me the Bees. Brentford plus three

1426
01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:07,960
Speaker 4: sixty BJ what's your favorite.

1427
01:07:07,680 --> 01:07:10,920
Speaker 1: Bet Watford Burnley over two and a half goals at

1428
01:07:11,000 --> 01:07:14,520
Speaker 1: plus one ten. Under the management of Mike Jackson and

1429
01:07:14,680 --> 01:07:18,320
Speaker 1: Ben Mee, Burnley looks revitalized. They're three matches in charge,

1430
01:07:18,360 --> 01:07:21,200
Speaker 1: they've created four point one expected goals. They're averaging around

1431
01:07:21,240 --> 01:07:24,200
Speaker 1: one point five expected goals in their last five matches

1432
01:07:24,240 --> 01:07:26,760
Speaker 1: and what's the reason for that? I believe it's desperation.

1433
01:07:26,920 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 1: The relegation battle has forced Burnley to come out and

1434
01:07:29,840 --> 01:07:32,960
Speaker 1: play more open play, more aggressive going forward in attack.

1435
01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 1: That will play into the hands here of this type

1436
01:07:35,600 --> 01:07:39,160
Speaker 1: match because Burnley their matches over the last two months

1437
01:07:39,240 --> 01:07:42,720
Speaker 1: or so have averaged around two point eight expected goals,

1438
01:07:42,800 --> 01:07:45,200
Speaker 1: and defensively over the last nine they've been pretty bad,

1439
01:07:45,280 --> 01:07:48,840
Speaker 1: allowing one point seven expected goals per match and Watford listen,

1440
01:07:48,960 --> 01:07:51,000
Speaker 1: it's sad they're going to get relegated. It's only a

1441
01:07:51,080 --> 01:07:53,680
Speaker 1: matter of time now. But they've been very unlucky under

1442
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:57,200
Speaker 1: Roy Hodgson minus nineteen actual goal differential but only a

1443
01:07:57,280 --> 01:07:59,600
Speaker 1: minus eight expected goal differential, and a lot of that

1444
01:07:59,600 --> 01:08:02,280
Speaker 1: possible aggression is going to come offensively because they've only

1445
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:05,560
Speaker 1: scored eight goals off of thirteen expected in his time

1446
01:08:05,640 --> 01:08:08,920
Speaker 1: in charge. With both these teams battling to get out

1447
01:08:08,960 --> 01:08:11,120
Speaker 1: of relegation, they're going to have to be aggressive, They're

1448
01:08:11,160 --> 01:08:12,960
Speaker 1: going to have to go forward. So I think we're

1449
01:08:12,960 --> 01:08:15,240
Speaker 1: going to see a very open game with a lot

1450
01:08:15,280 --> 01:08:17,320
Speaker 1: of chances at both ends of the pitch. So I

1451
01:08:17,439 --> 01:08:19,680
Speaker 1: have two point six goals projected for this match, so

1452
01:08:20,080 --> 01:08:21,720
Speaker 1: over two and a half goals at plus one ten

1453
01:08:21,800 --> 01:08:22,880
Speaker 1: I believe has some value.

1454
01:08:23,080 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 4: And then wraps up another episode of Wonder Goal. We

1455
01:08:26,439 --> 01:08:29,400
Speaker 4: will be back on Monday morning to preview the second

1456
01:08:29,479 --> 01:08:33,519
Speaker 4: legs of the Champions League, talk about any midweek contests

1457
01:08:33,520 --> 01:08:35,560
Speaker 4: that come our way as well. Until then, though, we

1458
01:08:35,560 --> 01:08:37,760
Speaker 4: willsue the best of luck on your soccer bets for

1459
01:08:38,200 --> 01:08:38,839
Speaker 4: this weekend.