Speaker 1: Also media.
Speaker 2: Hi everyone, it's me James, just introducing this podcast. I'm
Speaker 2: recording this the day after we recorded the episode to
Speaker 2: today's Thursday, the twenty first of March. I wanted to
Speaker 2: just update a couple of things and correct a couple
Speaker 2: of things, so I've just listened through the episodes.
Speaker 3: I'm going to do that now.
Speaker 2: Firstly, I think I said Igler a couple of times
Speaker 2: when I meant strella. It's the Strella portable surface to
Speaker 2: our missiles have been refitted with new batteries in the
Speaker 2: Syrian Civil Wars specifically, and I've included a link to
Speaker 2: a document about that in the show notes. So apologies
Speaker 2: for getting those two things confused. They're both I guess
Speaker 2: former Soviet service to our missile systems. The other things
Speaker 2: I wanted to mention are that a few like throughout
Speaker 2: this episode, we've used manpads, right. That's kind of the
Speaker 2: colloquial term or the official term really for person portable
Speaker 2: anti aircraft systems, like it obviously doesn't mean that you
Speaker 2: have to be a man to use one, certainly like
Speaker 2: the fact that the hPG are using them and that
Speaker 2: the Kurdish Freedom Movement are using them, obviously women can
Speaker 2: use them, non binary folks can use them, to everyone
Speaker 2: can use them. And finally, I just wanted to mention
Speaker 2: that there have been some suggestions that the thing that
Speaker 2: was used to shoot down the bay Ragtars was like
Speaker 2: loitering munition, which is something that is often called a
Speaker 2: suicide drone. In this case, it's not a loitering munition
Speaker 2: that impacts something on the ground, but impact something on
Speaker 2: the air. There's an Iranian system that does that, but
Speaker 2: apparently it's possible to replicate that with a large number
Speaker 2: of off the shelf or sort of commercially available pieces.
Speaker 3: So maybe that's what's going on.
Speaker 2: This episode was a little bit speculative, and we still
Speaker 2: don't have lots of hard answers, but we hope you'll
Speaker 2: enjoy it because it represents a change in a relationship
Speaker 2: between the state and people who are not the state,
Speaker 2: and that's why it's important.
Speaker 3: Okay, hope you enjoy.
Speaker 2: Hello, podcast fans, Welcome back to the podcast. I'm joined
Speaker 2: today by my friend Mia Himea. Hello, and we are
Speaker 2: talking about, of course, surface to wear missiles, a topic
Speaker 2: that I'm sure is on the top of mind for
Speaker 2: all of you as you drive to work this morning.
Speaker 2: Where are we talking about surface to air missiles today? Well?
Speaker 2: Today is it is Wednesday, the twentieth of March, and
Speaker 2: today I'm sure maybe some of you would have seen
Speaker 2: some of the most of you probably will not as
Speaker 2: you go about your daily lives.
Speaker 3: That the k c K.
Speaker 2: The k c K is the group, the Kurdistan Communities Union,
Speaker 2: the joint group between the various groups in the different
Speaker 2: parts of Kurdistan. Right, So you have the PKK, You
Speaker 2: have they in Syria, p KK in Turkey, right, the
Speaker 2: p JACK in Iran. In the KK like brings all
Speaker 2: these groups together?
Speaker 1: Do they?
Speaker 4: Is there a name?
Speaker 3: Do they?
Speaker 4: Is there like an Iraqi branch? That's the one that
Speaker 4: I don't know. You have the yevishe the Azdi group? Right, yeah,
Speaker 4: Kurdish one.
Speaker 2: I think everyone I will reconsider my statement. The people
Speaker 2: who I have become aware of who are in Iraq,
Speaker 2: who are who I know about journalistically, are Ksek people. Okay,
Speaker 2: little little bit of smoke and mirrors feed there, but yeah,
Speaker 2: the people, the people who who I know who are
Speaker 2: in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region are Ksek. So I think
Speaker 2: that I think most of the sort of people within
Speaker 2: the Greater like Kurdish Freedom Movement.
Speaker 3: The Apoche people are KCK within Iraq.
Speaker 2: It is in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region, so like Iraqi
Speaker 2: in a technical sense, but only only really in a
Speaker 2: technical sense, Like when you go to the Kurdistan Autonomous Region,
Speaker 2: you don't even do Iraqi immigration. You do Kurdistyan immigration,
Speaker 2: which is nice because it's a lot easier. I was
Speaker 2: there in October of twenty twenty three, and since February
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty three, the KCK have an out. They
Speaker 2: have shut down thirteen Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles, right, which
Speaker 2: what you and I would call drones. And we're not
Speaker 2: talking about drones like your friend has a drone and
Speaker 2: they use it to film you at the beach drones.
Speaker 2: We're talking about like bairaktar drones, which are it's an aircraft, right,
Speaker 2: Like if you saw one, you would be like, oh,
Speaker 2: there goes a plane.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like it's it's like the Turkish version of
Speaker 4: the Predator drones and.
Speaker 2: The US users, Yeah, yeah, it's it's yeah, it's a
Speaker 2: very similar thing. It's a very popular drone system actually, right,
Speaker 2: they've sold bairaktars to. I think dozens of countries like
Speaker 2: like they're I mean most all over, yeah, thirty one
Speaker 2: countries that they've exported the bairaktar to, so they're very
Speaker 2: widely used. They're kind of the the sort of drone
Speaker 2: of choice for people who are just like buying on
Speaker 2: the open market. Right. Karta uses them, Ukraine uses them
Speaker 2: a lot, but even countries like I'm looking here Bikina
Speaker 2: Faso has has biraugtars So what's notable about this is
Speaker 2: they've also shot down a Kinchi's a kinchiese are like
Speaker 2: the newer bairakta variant that they make a slightly different noise.
Speaker 2: I've spent some time in places that are being attacked
Speaker 2: by drones over the last year, and it's it's.
Speaker 3: A highly unpleasant experience.
Speaker 2: But people who are used to this, which I am,
Speaker 2: I guess thankfully not, will tell you that they can
Speaker 2: tell the difference the noise at least these drones to make.
Speaker 2: But there was a kinchi, for instance, I believe it
Speaker 2: was in a kinchi that did some of the attacks
Speaker 2: that I was unfortunate enough to be nearby when I
Speaker 2: was in ro In October. So what's notable about this
Speaker 2: is like the k c K obviously, like they're a
Speaker 2: non state actor, right because there is not a Kurdish state.
Speaker 2: There is a Kurdish nation, one might argue, but it's
Speaker 2: split between four states Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey, and
Speaker 2: so them being able to shoot down droned it's quite
Speaker 2: remind uckable.
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, one's none of the non state actors really
Speaker 4: in the last like twenty years have been able to
Speaker 4: do this. Like like everyone talks about how advanced like
Speaker 4: isis's capabilities were for a non state actor, and they were,
Speaker 4: but they couldn't do it, Like it's wild, No, like who.
Speaker 3: These have shut down some reaper drones.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but but they're but they're a state, Like that's
Speaker 4: the thing, Like they'd have huge swaths of the regular
Speaker 4: you many military are just like.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then they're supplied by other state actors, right,
Speaker 2: like very clearly as it's a little different. What, Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's this is relatively remarkable, right that they've been able
Speaker 2: to shoot down like and not just it's not just
Speaker 2: like oh we got lucky, we got we got lucky
Speaker 2: and dropped a single drone. ISIS had if I remember correctly,
Speaker 2: Isis had some Igla manpads, like the old Russian man pads.
Speaker 2: The thing with those and we're going to talk about
Speaker 2: this a little bit later. They they have like a
Speaker 2: battery and that battery will run out over a certain
Speaker 2: or they're sold that. Some of them are just being
Speaker 2: sold on the black market without batteries. From what I've seen,
Speaker 2: some folks in that we've seen in the civil war
Speaker 2: in Syria have worked out how to somehow make that
Speaker 2: battery work with or make another battery, or make another
Speaker 2: electronic system for them. They don't have like a lockout, right,
Speaker 2: they don't have a like we've detected, you know, like
Speaker 2: your iPhone will sometimes get mad if you're using a
Speaker 2: third party charger.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, right.
Speaker 2: So Tim Apples was not involved in the design of
Speaker 2: the NK thelia Igler more so pity and so he
Speaker 2: wasn't able to engineer it a third party luckout. But
Speaker 2: those have been repurposed. But yeah, we did not see
Speaker 2: the Islamic state of Irak and El Sham dropping US drones.
Speaker 2: In fact, the reason like the thing that are allowed,
Speaker 2: there are two things that allowed the defeat of the
Speaker 2: so called Islamic state rate one, the heroism of the
Speaker 2: people who fought against them, be they like I Rocky Kurdish,
Speaker 2: you know, a lot of people for the against have
Speaker 2: fifteen thousand kurt died fighting isis But also the fact
Speaker 2: that the US had complete air dominance and could just
Speaker 2: fucking obliterate things from the sky whenever it wanted to.
Speaker 2: It did, it did a lot of It did a
Speaker 2: lot of obliterating things from the sky, right, And so
Speaker 2: the ability to shoot down drones is something that has
Speaker 2: been very hard for non state actors. And it's not
Speaker 2: like it's not like the k c K has a
Speaker 2: state sponsor, right yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah. Also so like like for example, like hesbal Lah
Speaker 4: has shot down to although these weren't actually they shut
Speaker 4: down to Hermes like it is really hermis drones. So
Speaker 4: though those are just sort of those are surveillance things.
Speaker 4: But the thing is like Hezbola did this by getting
Speaker 4: surface there missles, like getting surface their rockets from Iran.
Speaker 3: Yeah sure, yeah, that's right.
Speaker 4: That's like, you know, the way that you can do
Speaker 4: this is if either like Iran, the US, I guess
Speaker 4: technically China and or and or Russia like hand you
Speaker 4: them but if none of those four countries are willing
Speaker 4: to play ball or I mean I guessically the UK, yes,
Speaker 4: or like France could send you one, but like it's
Speaker 4: it's it's really really like I don't. I don't think
Speaker 4: any non state actor who wasn't being just directly armed
Speaker 4: by one of those states has pulled it off.
Speaker 2: No. The other non state actor who I've seen with
Speaker 2: manpads very recently are the Koren, the current national liberal
Speaker 2: k in l A. The k and LA have been
Speaker 2: putting out these pictures. This is in me and mar Yes,
Speaker 2: this is in Mema. So for folks who haven't listened
Speaker 2: to our previous Meama episodes, go and listen to them.
Speaker 2: But yeah, there's some of the work I'm proud of.
Speaker 2: But these k and LA guys have these photos have
Speaker 2: come out that then they're not not post photos, right.
Speaker 2: They they very clearly they wanted these photos to come
Speaker 2: out and it shows them with these manpad system. I'm
Speaker 2: actually not sure if it's a strella or a Chinese
Speaker 2: I think it's called the eighth N five the Chinese.
Speaker 2: It's essentially the same thing, but they have the grip
Speaker 2: stock for them, but they don't have the coolant ball
Speaker 2: and the battery at the front, so like that they're
Speaker 2: what they have is a fancy looking doesn't appear to
Speaker 2: my eyes to be like fully functional, like in terms
Speaker 2: of tracking and shooting down an aeroplane. Although I have
Speaker 2: seen footage from friends of Hunter aircraft deploying like flares
Speaker 2: over a current state and then like turning around and leaving,
Speaker 2: So perhaps there's something I'm missing here, Like, it's entirely
Speaker 2: possible that when they decided for these photos come out,
Speaker 2: they they're in a certain fashion. And like those guys
Speaker 2: who engineered and tire arms industry of their own using
Speaker 2: Reddit and Ali express, like I, if anybody can make
Speaker 2: something work, they can make something work.
Speaker 3: I have great faith in their ingenuity.
Speaker 2: And as I said, like it's people in Syria have
Speaker 2: previously made systems like this work. They're not they don't
Speaker 2: have that lockout, so it's quite possible that they did.
Speaker 2: But I've not seen a video of anyone in Mianmar
Speaker 2: shooting down and any kind of aircraft yet. Right the
Speaker 2: Russian aircraft that they have shot down aircraft allegedly someone
Speaker 2: shot one down with with a like a grenade launcher,
Speaker 2: a single shot grenade launcher solid video, Yeah, which one
Speaker 2: of the most chadly things anyone's ever done. It's it's
Speaker 2: some like modern warfare or whatever whatever. The computer game
Speaker 2: is called Battlefield, that's what it's called. Yeah, talking of
Speaker 2: talking of Chadley and exciting stuff. This might be an
Speaker 2: advert for like being a prison guard or something exciting
Speaker 2: that we have to to introduce. Now, okay, don't don't
Speaker 2: be a prison guard?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 2: Back, have you found gain from employment elsewhere outside of
Speaker 2: the cast real system? And we're talking about surface to
Speaker 2: our missiles, particularly these thirteen surface to our missile of
Speaker 2: thirteen drones that the casey K have shut down, right,
Speaker 2: One thing I thought that was noticeable is that they
Speaker 2: did say missiles they are people were able to pride
Speaker 2: the missile system necessary that So like there's a theory
Speaker 2: that I've seen that that they were able to crash
Speaker 2: a drone of their own into into a bayractar like
Speaker 2: a kind of like I guess, like a suicide. I
Speaker 2: don't like the word suicide drone because it's not the
Speaker 2: drone that's dying. Like normally when people talk about suicide drones,
Speaker 2: they're killing people.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but like a ramming drone. Yeah yeah, yeah, like
Speaker 4: a like a it's like robot Wars. But they said
Speaker 4: missile on their press.
Speaker 2: Really, so you know, if we take that on the
Speaker 2: if we take that on the face of it, that
Speaker 2: that suggests that they shut them down. Certainly this like
Speaker 2: there is good video evidence of the mirror and I
Speaker 2: just reviewed the video. Incredible soundtrack. We'll link to it
Speaker 2: in the We'll link to it in the show notes.
Speaker 2: In the videos, you very clearly see Oh it's a drone.
Speaker 2: Oh it's a huge explosion that gravity is now having
Speaker 2: its effect on this drone, like it is plummeting to earth.
Speaker 4: Yeah, like it's it's definitely not a like we've fired
Speaker 4: a machine gun in the air and it hit it
Speaker 4: somehow or something like. It's right, it got hit quite explosive. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 4: that's remarkable.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: One of the there was a shooting down of an
Speaker 2: aircraft in them. It wasn't one of them makes I
Speaker 2: forgot it might have been. It was a two seater
Speaker 2: training plate. I can't remember quite what it was, but
Speaker 2: that was shot down supposedly by small arms fire or
Speaker 2: maybe like a generally the like the air defense of
Speaker 2: most non state arm groups has been dushcuts right, like
Speaker 2: a it's a thing that you've seen in the back
Speaker 2: of a pickup truck going like bang ban bang, with
Speaker 2: a big sort of spade grip. It's a classic technical gun.
Speaker 2: But this isn't that, Like, this is something very different,
Speaker 2: something they're they're exploding when these drones get hit, they're exploding.
Speaker 2: And they've all been in I think, oh yeah, all
Speaker 2: of them are in areas of the what we call
Speaker 2: the Kurdistan Autonomous Region. A bit of rock, right, So
Speaker 2: some of them are in zap which is near to
Speaker 2: Hok but towards north of there. Some of them in
Speaker 2: the Kandil Mountains, which is part of the Zagros Mountain Range.
Speaker 2: Again it's it's in the north of that Kurdistan Autonomous Region,
Speaker 2: and I think some of them are in it. I
Speaker 2: think it's Gabay, it's pronounced, but they're not in like
Speaker 2: I think obviously, when a lot of people think about
Speaker 2: the Kurdistan Freedom Movement, they think about Rajava. This isn't there.
Speaker 2: The US did shoot down a by rakta or in
Speaker 2: a Kinchi over Rajava while I was there, but they
Speaker 2: only shot it down because it flew over their base.
Speaker 2: They continued to let the bay Raktars bomb civilian infrastructure
Speaker 2: all over the A and E S. So these these
Speaker 2: are not there, these are so perhaps whatever they're using
Speaker 2: so interesting, right, Like it's maybe it's not something they
Speaker 2: can take there, or maybe it's not you know, like
Speaker 2: it's not they're not able to get it out of
Speaker 2: the mountains.
Speaker 3: It's too much of a risk.
Speaker 4: No, it's it's interesting, I mean for a number of reasons. Well, yeah,
Speaker 4: partially that they're not using it in serior. Partially they're
Speaker 4: also they don't seem to be using them in Turkey either.
Speaker 2: No, it's interesting when they take off, it's not that
Speaker 2: like subtle, right, it's a big aircraft, so they'll get
Speaker 2: some warning when they take off and that would allow them,
Speaker 2: I guess, to prepare their munitions. But yeah, they don't
Speaker 2: seem to be using it. They seem to be using
Speaker 2: it in like this this area. Whether they're very strong, right,
Speaker 2: whether these mountains are extremely fortified, they've been fighting Turkey.
Speaker 2: There are a lot in recent days and weeks. You
Speaker 2: can always i mean, obviously you're going to see some
Speaker 2: somewhat traumatic combat footage, but Garrilla TV always has like
Speaker 2: updates on these things. So that's the sort of thing
Speaker 2: that you you know, like to keep up to date with.
Speaker 2: But yeah, they're not using them there, they're not using them.
Speaker 2: They're they're very close to Turkey, right, but yeah, not
Speaker 2: not quite in and Turkey soldiers do occupy some areas
Speaker 2: inside the Iraqi curts Down Autonomous Region, so like they
Speaker 2: it's kind of all and Turkey seems to be kind
Speaker 2: of trying to ramp up its operations against the Courts
Speaker 2: Down Freedom movement inside the Curtis Donal Autonomous Region, but
Speaker 2: this is a significant impediment to that.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: It's also very interesting that like we have not heard
Speaker 2: shit about this from Turkey.
Speaker 4: No, Yeah, well, and I think I think part of
Speaker 4: this is you know, like I think it's something that
Speaker 4: as an indication of how serious this is, because I mean,
Speaker 4: this has been you know, the law of the twenty
Speaker 4: first century is that if you're a state actor, you
Speaker 4: have unlimited air superiority over any non state group you're bombing,
Speaker 4: and you can, you know, especially especially if you're like
Speaker 4: the US, you can send bombers or drones into like
Speaker 4: any country you want and you can bomb them. Yeah,
Speaker 4: and that has been true, and this has been the
Speaker 4: basis of US military power. It's also been the basis
Speaker 4: of a lot of like, you know, the Turkey obviously
Speaker 4: doesn't have the same air doctrine as the US does,
Speaker 4: but like that's been the basis of a lot of
Speaker 4: Turkish operations that they like, they're the people who have
Speaker 4: airpower on because they have airpower, because they have drones,
Speaker 4: because you can't shoot back at them, they can do
Speaker 4: whatever the fuck they want.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I've been in the situation where you are
Speaker 2: completely powerless and very afraid because at some point something
Speaker 2: could fall out the night sky and kill you and
Speaker 2: there's fuck all you can do about it. And yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: that has been the way of the world, like you say,
Speaker 2: for this entire century. Right, it's what we've seen. I mean, meanma,
Speaker 2: the pro democracy forces are gaining ground every day. They're
Speaker 2: doing an incredible job. But like I've also talked to
Speaker 2: people whose whole unit has been wiped out and they've
Speaker 2: hidden under the dead bodies of their friends because as
Speaker 2: a plane or a helicopter circling around, and it's the
Speaker 2: one area where they've really struggled to defend themselves, right,
Speaker 2: And it's I'm writing a book about anarchist at War.
Speaker 2: Eventually I will publish that book. But this is the
Speaker 2: thing that defines like the benit like the state. Even
Speaker 2: when the state like loses its monopoly on legitimate violence,
Speaker 2: it still has monopoly on airborne violence. And the questioning
Speaker 2: that monopoly, like is is incredibly dangerous for the state's
Speaker 2: ability to for the state, I guess in general, like
Speaker 2: for its continued ability to crush movements, be they liberatory
Speaker 2: or be they otherwise.
Speaker 4: Right, we can know, I mean, this is something I
Speaker 4: think is really interesting. This is something that's been a
Speaker 4: fear of I mean everyone from like Western intelligence people
Speaker 4: through like I mean you can see people in like
Speaker 4: Hollywood freaking out about this, Like like rebel group gets
Speaker 4: access to a manpad is like one of the most
Speaker 4: common like spy show plots. Yeah, and yeah, it's like
Speaker 4: it's something that you know, you can listen to, like
Speaker 4: the US military talking about this. Is this is something
Speaker 4: that they're really concerned about.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they won't sub like it's their where it's where
Speaker 2: they draw the line with the groups who are quote
Speaker 2: unquote allies, right, who'll be quote Like the US will
Speaker 2: tell you that the SDF for their allies in the
Speaker 2: fight against ISIS. But they're willing to let their allies
Speaker 2: die rather than give them manpads. Right, Like, I've seen this.
Speaker 3: I have.
Speaker 2: I've seen the funerals, you know, because they and the US.
Speaker 2: But I've also driven right past the fucking US base
Speaker 2: and I know that there are plenty of malny of
Speaker 2: plenty of anti aircraft systems there because they shut down
Speaker 2: a Turkish drone.
Speaker 3: While I was there.
Speaker 2: But they're not willing to give them to even the
Speaker 2: people who they'll fight side by side with because their
Speaker 2: fear of having manpads get into what they would maybe
Speaker 2: term the wrong hands is is. Yeah, it's like the
Speaker 2: the one area where they have I guess, complete domination.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 2: They've given them to Ukraine, of course, but despite like
Speaker 2: repeated allegations, there is no evidence that Ukraine has sold
Speaker 2: surface to wear systems anywhere, and they obviously weren't give
Speaker 2: them to me Anmar, right, So it's yeah, if this
Speaker 2: is what it appears to be, then it's a really
Speaker 2: massive change. Talking of a massive change, you could you know,
Speaker 2: you can make a massive change to your financial situation
Speaker 2: by purchasing gold.
Speaker 3: We're back, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4: Think something that's really interesting about the way that the
Speaker 4: sort of man pad getting to know and say to actors.
Speaker 3: Has talked about is that.
Speaker 4: Usually the way that it's like usually the US line
Speaker 4: on it is like we cant like we can't let
Speaker 4: anyone get these us They're gonna use it to shoot
Speaker 4: down civilian airliners. Yes, yeah, And now, to be fair,
Speaker 4: people do accidentally shoot down like militaries accidentally shoot down
Speaker 4: civilian airliners all the time. Yeah, Like that's a very
Speaker 4: common thing. But I think I think that's that's a
Speaker 4: smoke screed, right, because like even like the actual thing
Speaker 4: that if you're if you're a militant group, usually the
Speaker 4: thing that you want to be doing if you have
Speaker 4: one of these weapons is shooting down the things that
Speaker 4: the people who are bombing you. Yeah, And I think
Speaker 4: there's a really interesting sort of like psychological thing going
Speaker 4: on here. This is this is the sort of propaganda
Speaker 4: thing that that you know, to to get to get
Speaker 4: like you random person to be terrified of, Like you know,
Speaker 4: the Kurds having surface to air missiles, is they used
Speaker 4: like they use people's like fear of getting blown up
Speaker 4: on an airplane. It's like no, no, like click at
Speaker 4: like you know, evidence suggests that what is actually what
Speaker 4: actually happens that these is that they shoot down drones.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, exactly right, and not like the other thing,
Speaker 2: which is somewhat remarkable. It's it would be one thing
Speaker 2: to have got your hands on one or two, but
Speaker 2: to have been to have shut down in a one
Speaker 2: year pit well just over one year from February thirteenth,
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three until marks the first, twenty twenty four,
Speaker 2: they have shot down fifteen UAVs like that. That's a
Speaker 2: that's a decent number of manpads or maybe not manpads.
Speaker 2: That's the other thing we kind of didn't mention, right,
Speaker 2: Like bait raptas can fly very high. We were just
Speaker 2: sort of checking this out before the show, and I
Speaker 2: think they can fly around seven thousand meters, which when
Speaker 2: in theory put about side feet twenty five thousand feet, yeah,
Speaker 2: which is about twice the like the the height previous
Speaker 2: generation man pads like things like stingers and iglers can
Speaker 2: can operate at I'm not sure of the the what
Speaker 2: the for for an igler reach targets and macxum altitude
Speaker 2: of two thy five hundred meters.
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's a little under.
Speaker 2: As high as these as these like attack drones can fly,
Speaker 2: maybe they have to come lower to like launch their munitions,
Speaker 2: or maybe they come lower to to search for people
Speaker 2: and presumably looking for The Kurdistan Freedom Movement has guerrillas
Speaker 2: all over these mountains right here, extremely well camouflaged and
Speaker 2: extremely adept at avoiding drone attacks because that is what
Speaker 2: they have been doing for for a long time.
Speaker 3: So maybe that's how.
Speaker 2: But also maybe maybe there's something that we're not aware
Speaker 2: of or some kind of Maybe it's not a man
Speaker 2: portable system at all. Maybe it's something that is like
Speaker 2: fixed in place well, and that and that comes.
Speaker 4: I think one of the one of the really interesting
Speaker 4: questions to you, which is how on earth did they
Speaker 4: get these? Yeah, whatever whatever system you're using, you know
Speaker 4: normally like the only way, like you know, like has
Speaker 4: blah or the whoies get them from Iran? Right, But
Speaker 4: the Radians are absolutely like, under no circumstances are they
Speaker 4: going to I mean maybe if Turkey declared war on Iran,
Speaker 4: there's like a five percent chance maybe in like their
Speaker 4: darkest hour, they might try this, Like there's no way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like Iraq and Iran have repeatedly attempted to mobilize
Speaker 2: the Kurds against each other, right, but yeah, I think
Speaker 2: that they would draw the line at handing over manpads and.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and they're definitely not getting them from the US.
Speaker 2: No, then they're using them in areas where they're with
Speaker 2: the US, and the US has been very clears.
Speaker 4: Like like you know, it's it's it's definitely not I
Speaker 4: don't think it's any other Western country either, Like, yeah,
Speaker 4: it doesn't make any sense. Like I mean, maybe like
Speaker 4: based Sweden smuggling pads in or something, but I really
Speaker 4: doubt it, which leaves it really like up in the air.
Speaker 4: I mean, like maybe Russia maybe somehow, I don't know.
Speaker 4: It's it's it's all very weird.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean like in recent months, the A
Speaker 2: Side regime, which is backed by Russia, has been an
Speaker 2: open conflict with the SDF, So I think it it's
Speaker 2: it's very unlikely, like the Asad regime has been fighting
Speaker 2: with and killing it and dying with ye again in Syria,
Speaker 2: so it seems very unlikely. Yeah, it's very That's what's
Speaker 2: very strange, Like the there seems to be a couple
Speaker 2: of different groups of people, right, like the Kuren have
Speaker 2: popped up with these previous generations Igla.
Speaker 3: Kind of manpads.
Speaker 2: The Kitchin have shot down a lot of planes recently,
Speaker 2: and it's not entirely clear how so the Kitchen or
Speaker 2: another ethnic group in Myanmar a somewhat closer ties to
Speaker 2: the pr C. The United ware State Army have manpads.
Speaker 2: They are the sort of closest tied to the PRC
Speaker 2: of the e r os in Myanma. I'm using a
Speaker 2: lot of acronyms here on it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is just the problem we're talking about, Curtis
Speaker 4: Group's not I'm talking about, Yes, like the two great
Speaker 4: acronym like wars.
Speaker 2: Don't be overlooking the Spanish Civil War, the alphabet soup
Speaker 2: of conflicts. Yeah, this is this is a life I've
Speaker 2: chosen for myself. So, yeah, the ethnic revolutionary organizations in
Speaker 2: Mielma the closest to China. It's the United ware State
Speaker 2: Army who have been at the fringes of the conflict,
Speaker 2: but it is certainly not fully committed to fighting against
Speaker 2: the Hunter in the same way that the Karen, the Kachin,
Speaker 2: the Arakan Army, the PDF for the other groups that
Speaker 2: form the resistance in Burma or Memma are but there
Speaker 2: have definitely been more planes shot down in Memma this
Speaker 2: year than in the last few years, So there's perhaps
Speaker 2: there's some kind of source in the world for these
Speaker 2: service to msas. There will come a point in the
Speaker 2: human future, right when one of these is either reverse
Speaker 2: engineered or someone just really, if someone had said to
Speaker 2: you ten years ago that, like several people online, some
Speaker 2: of whom I've spoken to, some of whom our friend
Speaker 2: j Camera had spoken to, would be able to construct
Speaker 2: a gun that you could print from your computer, like
Speaker 2: you'd you'd have said, you're barking right like, and at
Speaker 2: some point in the human future someone will work out
Speaker 2: how to use things they already have to make something
Speaker 2: that can shoot down aircraft. But yeah, it's baffling like that.
Speaker 2: There seems to be no obvious answers to where what
Speaker 2: the source of these the The last thing I will
Speaker 2: say is that there was a yakuzer boss. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: this guy legend. It's just like he like, this man's
Speaker 2: my man's done nothing wrong. He was convicted of selling
Speaker 2: trying to sell man pared to the Korene and I
Speaker 2: think to the Kachin, I can't remember if one of
Speaker 2: them with the koren Uh and he was trying to
Speaker 2: do so very funny. He was calling them cake and
Speaker 2: ice cream and incredibly incredibly good cipher. It's a hell
Speaker 2: of a it's a banger of an indictment. Everyone should
Speaker 2: read it to Keshi. I forget what his last name was,
Speaker 2: but he he was trying to sell man pads and
Speaker 2: what he was actually doing was being monitored by the DEA.
Speaker 2: But the man pads that he thought that he had
Speaker 2: access to were fictional, like it was. It was it
Speaker 2: was the FEDS who had conned him into thinking they
Speaker 2: had man pads. They did have some eighty fours. He
Speaker 2: met them in the Netherlands. Took an incredible selfie with
Speaker 2: a light anti tank weapon and you can look it up.
Speaker 2: Leather jacket, like I think he's got blue aviators on,
Speaker 2: Like my man's been arrested for having incredible drip and
Speaker 2: it's very sad. But yeah, the man pads he thought
Speaker 2: he was selling were fictional. But the fact that people
Speaker 2: were like, yeah, this seems reasonable like that people were like, okay,
Speaker 2: we're prepared to enter this deal with you. They weren't like,
Speaker 2: what are you on about suggests that maybe these things
Speaker 2: are entering the market. People will always say that they
Speaker 2: came from Afghanistan, like after the US left. But I
Speaker 2: don't think the Taliban would have any reason to sell them.
Speaker 2: They're getting bombed by Pakistan right now. Like what Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: it doesn't seem it doesn't make sense to me that
Speaker 2: that they would sell them. Yeah, and I one thing
Speaker 2: I should also mention is like every single time there
Speaker 2: is a war anywhere in the world, there are a
Speaker 2: trillion rumors that come out. They're like, oh, there's like
Speaker 2: this guy is selling like ex weapons or whatever, and
Speaker 2: it's like ninety nine percent of them are false.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah, you hear this all the time and
Speaker 4: it's never true. Yes, So that makes it really hard
Speaker 4: to sort out like where these things are coming from. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4: A friend of the podcast, Victor Boot is he's free again.
Speaker 2: He's back maybe maybe maybe he's gotten back on Maybe
Speaker 2: the god of war is back.
Speaker 3: Baby.
Speaker 2: It would be incredible, there would be an incredible narrative
Speaker 2: art for Victor Boot. But like as we said in
Speaker 2: that episode, right, like it's very easy to point to
Speaker 2: Victor Boot as being this evil guy, but in fact,
Speaker 2: like we've sold a shit ton of weapons to people
Speaker 2: who turn out to be pretty pretty uncivil as the
Speaker 2: United States, a lot more people working all the other
Speaker 2: places that have offices in San Diego made a lot
Speaker 2: more money than he did selling weapons to people. So
Speaker 2: you know, we ought to be you know, popcorn and
Speaker 2: the cut back a bit there, but clearly something is
Speaker 2: up with surface to our missiles. I hope this makes
Speaker 2: your spring Bak flights more exciting.
Speaker 3: It just gives it a little edge as you take off.
Speaker 2: Don't fly in Turkey, Yeah, yeah, that's the our tip
Speaker 2: is to to not fly from not land. I guess
Speaker 2: in I mean, like we said, the KSEK and go
Speaker 2: to shoot down your civilian plane, then they're nice people.
Speaker 2: I'll just say the KSEK and my experience have been
Speaker 2: very nice, very forthcoming, extremely communicative and responsive to press requests,
Speaker 2: which much more so than a lot a lot of
Speaker 2: other state actors. And I don't think you have any
Speaker 2: worries abut them shooting down your aircraft. But it's an
Speaker 2: interesting development that like yeah, will fundamentally challenge the way
Speaker 2: that states are able to squash non state arm groups
Speaker 2: going forward.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and if we if we figure out where they
Speaker 4: got them from and that becomes public. Well you'll you'll
Speaker 4: see the next episode called We found Out where the
Speaker 4: mad Pads are from.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think in unlikelihood to no one's interested to
Speaker 2: know to like announce where these are from. And I
Speaker 2: don't think you know the ones in in Meanmar. It's
Speaker 2: not inconceivable that they came either directly or indirectly from China. Yeah,
Speaker 2: certainly that that would be the most feasible. But seeing
Speaker 2: them elsewhere it's fascinating, Like it's you know, if somebody
Speaker 2: has like either reverse engineered these are there's a large
Speaker 2: NAWORITHM available on the black market, like that would be
Speaker 2: a sea change in the way conflict happened, right, Like,
Speaker 2: you know, it's rare. Right now, it's able to bomb
Speaker 2: Palestine with complete impunity. If non state arm groups had
Speaker 2: access to manpads there that that maybe wouldn't be the case.
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's a change. It's a change in the
Speaker 2: way the world goes to war. I think it's always interesting.
Speaker 2: It's always interesting, Like for a podcast that was built
Speaker 2: on speculative fiction about future collapses, like this certainly is
Speaker 2: something that challenges some monopoly of the state. So yeah,
Speaker 2: it's something to keep an eye on. I will attach
Speaker 2: in the notes the Gorilla TV video of the Beiractars
Speaker 2: being shut down. Please enjoyed the soundtrack, Yeah, it's banger.
Speaker 2: And we'll also include some links to those videos of
Speaker 2: the Kurne National Liberation Army with their man pads. If
Speaker 2: you're a manpads understander, you know you know where to
Speaker 2: find me. It's all over the internet.
Speaker 3: Yeah. With that, I will leave you have a great weekend.
Speaker 3: Don't fly your cessnas.
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