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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume

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Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Let's welcome in my co host, my companion Michael andare

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Speaker 1: Mike BFF professional?

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Speaker 2: Better? Sign in Hunter Ello?

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Speaker 3: So I'm in Chad. How are we doing? Brother dude?

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Speaker 2: We made it Every year.

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Speaker 1: We hope and pray training camps would come a little

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Speaker 1: bit sooner, but they always seem to come at the

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Speaker 1: exact same time, which means it's time for us to

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Speaker 1: kick off our annual division by division NFL preview episodes,

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Speaker 1: going through each of the eight divisions across the AFC

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Speaker 1: and the NFC as our March to Week one officially

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Speaker 1: begins today. We start with the always electrifying division that

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Speaker 1: I am quick to show deference to, one that I

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Speaker 1: have nothing but respect for, one that shows.

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Speaker 2: Us year after year after year. Why it is not.

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Speaker 1: A joke division at all, A division that has been

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Speaker 1: loved and admired by us on this show for going

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Speaker 1: on a decade.

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Speaker 2: The AFC South.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a it's a gross division, but it's a

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Speaker 4: division that you can find a lot of value in.

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Speaker 4: We've had some really fun years been there, right, The

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Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence year that he came back eight to one,

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Speaker 4: ten to one. Some people got it to win this

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Speaker 4: division on the last game of the year against Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: Pretty exciting.

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Speaker 4: In the following year, Brandon Anderson had him on the show,

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Speaker 4: talked about Houston Texans. I think they were eleven to one,

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Speaker 4: sure enough won the division.

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Speaker 3: So it's it's just a crazy division.

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Speaker 4: You can go from worse to first in this division

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Speaker 4: if you get the right quarterback with the defensive combination.

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Speaker 3: Just because we talk about the time, it's it's a

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Speaker 3: bad division chat.

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Speaker 4: So if you just have one really good part of

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Speaker 4: your team, you can usually dominate this division in that sense.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, that's that's sort of the theme for this division.

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Speaker 1: And we've talked about it a few times on the

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Speaker 1: show already during the offseason, and so let's get into it.

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Speaker 1: The Houston Texans.

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Speaker 4: Sol rolls enough that both a vade in love and

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Speaker 4: that's old Vans.

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Speaker 3: If you're go and play in Texas, you gotta have the.

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Speaker 1: The Houston Texans. They're the division winners the past two seasons.

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Speaker 2: CJ.

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Speaker 1: Stroud had a brilliant rookie season. He took a huge

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Speaker 1: step back last season. Arguably a lot of different reasons

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Speaker 1: for that. They're Division odds plus one ten. There are

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Speaker 1: conference odds sixteen to one, longer, by the way, than

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, whom they crushed in the playoffs. They're Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl odds to one. Their win total nine and a half. Dude,

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Speaker 1: I want to love the Texans, I really do. I

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Speaker 1: want to believe in CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud.

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Speaker 1: I want to believe in the back to back playoffs.

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Speaker 1: I want to believe in destroying the Chargers, keeping it

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Speaker 1: close with the Chiefs in the postseason. I want to

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Speaker 1: believe because their defense is so good at every level.

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Speaker 1: You know, Daniel Hunter signed a new extension for big

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Speaker 1: money that got Will Anderson. Derek Stingley signed a deal

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Speaker 1: three years eighty nine guaranteed. I want to love this

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Speaker 1: team so much, but they have done nothing to help

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Speaker 1: the offensive line. In fact, they've gotten worse. No more

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Speaker 1: Laramy Tunsel greater as one of the best tackles in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. The big issue last year was the offensive line.

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Speaker 1: I've got the stats to back it up on how

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Speaker 1: it impacted CJ. Stroud and the most important elements of

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Speaker 1: his game. Simon. Before I dig into the data here,

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Speaker 1: give me your take on the Texans. Am I blowing

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Speaker 1: all of this out of proportion because at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day, it's the best quarterback in the division?

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Speaker 2: Take the best quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting talking to scouts on the team where

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Speaker 4: their view of it was, it's a big deal to

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Speaker 4: lose obviously lose an offensive lineman, but to them, they

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Speaker 4: were so bad they needed to make major change. And

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Speaker 4: that's across the board in Tunsil. You can talk about

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Speaker 4: him as a great player. He is, he's older Chad,

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Speaker 4: He's not what we still think of in previous years.

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Speaker 3: Right, last year, you can't put.

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Speaker 4: The blame on him because, like you just said, the

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Speaker 4: whole offensive line was bad, But he wasn't that great either,

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Speaker 4: Like he wasn't really dominant in as one on ones

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Speaker 4: as well.

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Speaker 3: So I'm with you.

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Speaker 4: I didn't really get them move, But the more I've

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Speaker 4: talked to guys on the team and kind of got

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Speaker 4: their perspective on it, I understand why they made the move. Now,

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Speaker 4: talking about the quarterbacks, we talked, I mean, this is

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Speaker 4: year three for CJ and this division three years ago was.

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Speaker 3: All about the quarterbacks. Right, we had CJ go to Houston.

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Speaker 4: We had the Colts take Anthony Richardson, and then you

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Speaker 4: had Tennessee take Will Levis. Now here we are three

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Speaker 4: years later. Will Levis is gone. I mean, he's basically

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Speaker 4: his career is over. In Tennessee. Thet they took Gay

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Speaker 4: Ward the first pick, and andthey richards is a total unknown.

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Speaker 4: CJ has been the playoffs every season and has won

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Speaker 4: a playoff game every season. So I think it's tough

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Speaker 4: where we had expectations for people. But to me, he's

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Speaker 4: coming to the league and he's done everything I expected

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Speaker 4: him to do, Like he shows up in the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: And again we talked that game against the Chiefs. I

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Speaker 4: know everyone played the Chiefs tight and tough last year,

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Speaker 4: but they were in it.

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Speaker 3: They were in in that fourth quarter. So this is

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Speaker 3: a team we talk. We know they have a load

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Speaker 3: of talent.

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Speaker 4: But like your questions right now, I think is what

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Speaker 4: the majority of the public is feeling. That is why

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Speaker 4: this is a minus one fifty minus one sixty, right

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Speaker 4: And there's a reason this is plus one ten because

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Speaker 4: we have so many questions about this new rebuilt offensive

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Speaker 4: line and what is up with CJ. Was that just

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Speaker 4: because of the regression of last year. We expected and

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Speaker 4: defensive coordinators better against him and him struggling because of

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Speaker 4: that and the adjustments they made. Maybe, but a little

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Speaker 4: bit like me, and you watch a lot of their games,

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Speaker 4: he just looked different. He didn't have the same confidence

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Speaker 4: and putting the ball downfield, it was a little different.

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Speaker 4: So I get to hesitation from people. But to me,

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Speaker 4: nine and a half, if I'm gonna bet it, I

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Speaker 4: have it right at ten, I'll take the over. But

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Speaker 4: it's so small. Am I really gonna put a lot

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Speaker 4: of money to it?

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Speaker 3: Now?

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Speaker 4: It's a very small margin here because to me, ten

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Speaker 4: to eleven wins is true for them, that's a real possibility.

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Speaker 3: But the reason it is.

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Speaker 4: Nine and a half so low is because of the

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Speaker 4: unknown of Tennessee, of Jacksonville, of the colts. Like this,

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Speaker 4: we all expect this division to be much better than

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Speaker 4: they were last year. Right last year, Houston just had

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Speaker 4: their way in this division. So that's why, like a

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Speaker 4: lot of people have asked about this nine and a half,

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Speaker 4: they're like, is it trappy?

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Speaker 3: It's not that trappy in the sense that the books

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Speaker 3: have late this number.

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Speaker 4: Because of that, right, they have the same type of

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Speaker 4: model if their model it has this at ten, why

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Speaker 4: not throw it at nine and a half and juice

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Speaker 4: it to the over right, that's where most of the

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Speaker 4: public money should coming in. So makes sense that it's

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Speaker 4: nine and a half. I'm shocked they're thirty to one

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl odds, like I wouldn't probably put it below

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Speaker 4: thirty five. So to me, there's no value for looking

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Speaker 4: at their Super BWL odds. But if you want to

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Speaker 4: make a play on the division a plus one ten chat,

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Speaker 4: I can't fault you for it. I've thrown a little

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Speaker 4: bet on it in parlays with them in a couple

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Speaker 4: other teams. But straight up wise, this is not the

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Speaker 4: team I'm better for this division at all.

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Speaker 2: Me neither brother.

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Speaker 1: I am not a buyer on the Texans in any respect.

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Speaker 1: The nine and a half is just not that interesting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not appealing.

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Speaker 1: It's not that interesting to me. Let's not discount the

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Speaker 1: fact that they really didn't do anything to upgrade their

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Speaker 1: receiver room. Nicocollins is really their only primary target. They

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Speaker 1: haven't really upgraded their running back situation. Joe Mixon has

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Speaker 1: an injury that has not fully been disclosed that they

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Speaker 1: say happened away from the facility that's going to keep

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Speaker 1: him out through a lot of training camp. They have

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Speaker 1: Nick Chubb, but Nick Chubb is old and injury prone

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Speaker 1: for a running back, so.

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Speaker 4: I do I'll just say that the wide receiver Chad

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Speaker 4: they did add I know it's not a big name

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Speaker 4: to you.

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Speaker 3: Christian Kirk.

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Speaker 4: I know they had a Christian on him and Jayden Higgins,

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Speaker 4: a rookie has as a really high upside. So they

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Speaker 4: did address a little bit the wide receiver. I'm not

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Speaker 4: trying to say you're totally off basis, but like they

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Speaker 4: did add some pieces to the wide receiver room.

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Speaker 1: You asked what happened to c J Stroud last year?

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Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you what happened to c J

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Speaker 1: Stroud last year because I've been digging into the data.

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Speaker 2: One of the.

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Speaker 1: Biggest reasons for his progression in twenty twenty three, c J.

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Speaker 1: Stroud was a revelation in the deep passing game. Right

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Speaker 1: per the advanced stats such as EP on deep throws

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Speaker 1: or his PFF ranking for deep throws, he was so

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Speaker 1: good he had one of the five best seasons over

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Speaker 1: the previous five seasons of anybody in the NFL throwing

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Speaker 1: the deep ball.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Four, he was so bad on deep balls he fell

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Speaker 1: to twenty ninth in EPA. Again, EPA's expected points at

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Speaker 1: it twenty ninth on.

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Speaker 2: Deep balls in EPA. In the NFL, what happened? You

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Speaker 2: might ask, why did CJ. Stroud regress so much?

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Speaker 1: And we try to figure it out all year last year,

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Speaker 1: like where the defense is doing something differently? Was it

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Speaker 1: the injuries to Nico Collins? Was it, you know, different

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Speaker 1: kind of sort of thinking from CJ. The biggest issue

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Speaker 1: goes back to what we talked about in the beginning,

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Speaker 1: the offensive line, the disruption pressure rate that he faced.

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Speaker 1: What that really means is like he was disrupted from

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Speaker 1: going through even his initial progression increased from five percent

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three to twenty five percent in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. That was the highest in the league. So

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Speaker 1: this guy couldn't even get through his initial reads on

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Speaker 1: any play and it took away what was his greatest

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Speaker 1: weapon as a rookie. And remember Blake, think back, We

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Speaker 1: all remember how great he was throwing deep balls. And

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Speaker 1: if even think about that playoff game against the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: he was throwing bombs in that game multiple explosive pass plays.

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Speaker 1: Those are what won them in that game. In addition

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Speaker 1: to Justin Herbert throwing the four picks was his ability

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Speaker 1: to generate explosive plays downfield with the pass. If he

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Speaker 1: can't do that this year with a new coordinator, that

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Speaker 1: to me poses a real problem for the Texans and Cjstraft.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we would both agree that they still obviously

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Speaker 4: have the best defensive unit in this division.

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Speaker 3: Yes, still have the best quarterback in this division by

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Speaker 3: a long shot.

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Speaker 4: And you know, if you're someone out there that likes

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Speaker 4: doing these divisional parlays, a guy like doing, I have

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Speaker 4: no issue with you betting there right now throwing them

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Speaker 4: into a parlay. But like we're about to dive in here,

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Speaker 4: there's other other teams of the division that just have

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Speaker 4: better odds, better value where I'm not saying it was

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Speaker 4: fluky that you're one with CJ. But you talked about

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Speaker 4: a little bit with the numbers where we knew he

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Speaker 4: was due for a regression on the deep ball. That

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Speaker 4: that's insane though him being twenty ninth, I didn't know

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Speaker 4: it was that bad. That that nice median if he

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Speaker 4: finds if he can be back in the top fifteen.

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Speaker 4: That's going to pretty much lock them up to doing

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Speaker 4: this division right like that would be such a huge

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Speaker 4: bump in their offensive output.

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Speaker 3: So I'm with you again. Another thing that's not being

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Speaker 3: talked down enough about enough Joe Mixon being hurt. I

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Speaker 3: know he's not Joe Mixon.

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Speaker 4: A Bowl, but that's still a big deal to that

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Speaker 4: offense where you know, he wished for one thousand yards.

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Speaker 3: He was pretty important to that offense last season.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, it's gonna be something to follow along the

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Speaker 4: next month see what he is in the update on

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Speaker 4: his injuries, because he he is in line right now

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Speaker 4: to miss the first couple weeks. That's why they're talking

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Speaker 4: in camp. So pretty interesting injury to follow with that team.

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Speaker 1: Real stabilizing force on the team, real veteran presence, did

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Speaker 1: so much to put that team in contention when things

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Speaker 1: were not going well for the offense and for the

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Speaker 1: passing game.

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Speaker 2: All right, So it feels.

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Speaker 1: Like we're in somewhat alignment on the Texans and their

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Speaker 1: failings but also their strengths. It really could come down

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Speaker 1: to their defense. If CJ improves on the deep ball

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Speaker 1: a little bit, we like them a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: But right now, we don't find any value in their

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Speaker 1: numbers unless we're doing their plus one, ten and some

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Speaker 1: parlays to win the division? All right, Jacksonville Jaguars.

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Speaker 3: It's the chant heard all throughout everybody, call for pride

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Speaker 3: and Jacksonville's team.

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Speaker 4: Let everyone know where they are from.

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars plus three hundred to win the division, thirty

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Speaker 1: five to one to win the conference, eighty to one

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Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl win total seven and a half. Simon,

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Speaker 1: can you tell me what this date means for the

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars?

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Speaker 2: You ready? December fourth, twenty twenty three?

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Speaker 3: Was that the last time there above five hundred?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 1: December fourth, twenty twenty three was a Monday night game

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Speaker 1: against the Bengals. At that point in the season, the

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Speaker 1: Jags were eight and three in twenty twenty three. They

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Speaker 1: were leading the division, still building off of a monster

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Speaker 1: comeback playoff win in twenty twenty two against the Chargers

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Speaker 1: that solidified Trevor Lawrence as one of the top young

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Speaker 1: qbs in the NFL. It made it look like the

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Speaker 1: Doug Peterson Trevor Lawrence connection was going to catapult them

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Speaker 1: into the next realm of AFC greatness. Midway through the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter of that game, it was tied twenty eight

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Speaker 1: twenty eight, Trevor Lawrence was stepped on by his own lineman,

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Speaker 1: Walker Little, severely injured his right ankle. Did not return

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Speaker 1: to the game. The Jags lost in overtime thirty four

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Speaker 1: thirty one. They dropped to eight and four in the season.

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Speaker 1: They'd go on to lose four of their final five games.

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Speaker 1: Finished the season nine and eight, missed the playoffs. Wheels

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Speaker 1: fell off. They never put him back on the next year,

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Speaker 1: even when he was healthy. Trevor Lawrence starts zero to four,

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Speaker 1: they never get into a groove, he hurts his shoulder,

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Speaker 1: He's done for the year. So who is this team

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Speaker 1: going to be like? Is Trevor Lawrence the guy who

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Speaker 1: took them on that miraculous comeback in the playoffs and

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Speaker 1: then started the next year eight and three and then

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Speaker 1: had that debilitating ankle injury and the team kind of

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Speaker 1: never recovered over the next season and a half. New

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Speaker 1: coach Wiam Cohne Brian Thomas Junior was brilliant. Travis Hunter.

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Speaker 1: They've improved what they've done on offense. Question marks at

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Speaker 1: running back bottom ten offensive line six, easiest schedule according

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Speaker 1: to one win loss projections. So I'm a buyer on

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Speaker 1: the Jags.

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Speaker 3: I can't follow you.

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Speaker 4: I know a lot of pros like again, this is

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Speaker 4: this division. There's pros.

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Speaker 3: I like a lot of these teams for different reasons.

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Speaker 3: A lot of pros I've talked to who like these

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Speaker 3: guys in May, then in June. Now they're you'd like

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Speaker 3: to do more here in July.

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Speaker 4: The hype keeps building is because it's the classic new

305
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Speaker 4: head coach. Like the new head coach, you bring him

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Speaker 4: in with the new offensive scheme. You're bringing Travis Hunter,

307
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Speaker 4: you I mean people want him to play both sides.

308
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Speaker 4: The wide receiver positions, I think is gonna be the

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Speaker 4: first thing they're trying to work into him, right. They

310
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Speaker 4: want him to be a weapon on offense first, just

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Speaker 4: because we know that that matters more. The likelihood of

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Speaker 4: him being a number one shutdown corner is much smaller

313
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Speaker 4: than it is being a stud roar receiver. It's just

314
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Speaker 4: a much easier position to play rather than defensively. But

315
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Speaker 4: the thing that really stands up to me is the

316
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Speaker 4: fact that you know they got Walker, they got josh

317
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Speaker 4: Heinz Allen these two incredible d linemen that I mean,

318
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Speaker 4: you know, as much as we like to shoot on

319
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Speaker 4: the Walker draft pick, he's just been getting ten sacks

320
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Speaker 4: every year like he's this is this. I think last

321
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Speaker 4: year is the third season another ten and a half sacks.

322
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Speaker 4: Like they they have the defensive front in my opinion,

323
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Speaker 4: But man, are they bad across the board defensively, Like

324
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Speaker 4: there is a lot of ways to attack that team defensively.

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Speaker 3: And did they go out and address that stuff?

326
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Speaker 4: I don't know, Like the Travis Hunter stuff, him being

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Speaker 4: their number one corner, Yes, that'd be amazing an ideal world.

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Speaker 4: It's not looking that way, Like you just watch his footwork.

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Speaker 4: I just you know, I can't imagine him trying to

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Speaker 4: go up against team's number ones, like him going against

331
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Speaker 4: Nico Collins, he would have a horrible day. Again, it's

332
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Speaker 4: Nico Collins that, like Nego Collins, is so professional running routes.

333
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Speaker 4: He would put Travis Hunter's head on a swivel. So, uh,

334
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Speaker 4: my mind when I look at this team is high

335
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Speaker 4: high upside?

336
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Speaker 3: Do you love the.

337
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Speaker 4: Number chicks plus three hundred enough value free? If it is,

338
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Speaker 4: then it's good value, Like that's that's the question. Here

339
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Speaker 4: is the number good enough seven and a half wins. Yeah,

340
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Speaker 4: if Trevor Lawrence can be that guy you just talked

341
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Speaker 4: about that eight and three quarterback that was ascending at

342
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Speaker 4: that point.

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Speaker 3: Yes, this this team should easily reach this number in

344
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Speaker 3: this division.

345
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Speaker 4: They have such a high level offense that with you know,

346
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Speaker 4: even if we don't know who their number one running

347
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Speaker 4: back is right now, like are even looking at their

348
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:41,480
Speaker 4: depth chart. Tank Biggsley took a step back, Travis etn

349
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Speaker 4: took a step back.

350
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Speaker 3: We don't know which one of.

351
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Speaker 4: Those guys will be the guy or could be the

352
00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 4: rookie they drafted. Like it's that's a big question right now.

353
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Speaker 4: But you're you, you kind of brought up with them.

354
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Speaker 4: We talk all the time the offensive lines, but then

355
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Speaker 4: we really do care about that. To me is gonna

356
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Speaker 4: be interesting part about you know, you're bringing a new

357
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,400
Speaker 4: head of coach or bringing a new offensive style. Can

358
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 4: he rupped the offense around Trevor Lawrence in that offensive line?

359
00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 4: Can he make it work a quick pass offense? Because

360
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,399
Speaker 4: we know on the outside, if you have Hunter and

361
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:13,119
Speaker 4: Brian Thoms Brian Thumps junior, that's an insanely deadly combo

362
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,919
Speaker 4: wide receivers, like, no excuse for Trevor Lawrence. We have

363
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:18,159
Speaker 4: those two guys in the outside, but can you survive

364
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:19,240
Speaker 4: that offensive line chat.

365
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:21,200
Speaker 3: So that's why I'm a little hesitant with this team.

366
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 4: I didn't make a small bet on them their win

367
00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,879
Speaker 4: total because it did open at seven and a half.

368
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 3: I bet it.

369
00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 4: The juice has been going up towards the over because

370
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,520
Speaker 4: to me, they're all upside team when you bring in

371
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 4: a new head coach, you have Trevor Lawrence coming off

372
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:35,320
Speaker 4: an injury, and they're kind of left for dead in

373
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,240
Speaker 4: the public opinions. Eye, I do like them, but I

374
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 4: also can see this team easily crash and burning just

375
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,679
Speaker 4: because of all that. Like you just talked about, he

376
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:44,760
Speaker 4: does not stay healthy. That's the biggest issue. A Trevor

377
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,159
Speaker 4: lawnces just stay healthy, and he's inconsistent. So to me,

378
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 4: so many questions about this team. I've bet bet them divisionally.

379
00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,120
Speaker 3: I've not bet them super bowldsive though it is tempting

380
00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 3: eighty to one. It's just I can't get there.

381
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 4: But the win toll seven and a half in this

382
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,840
Speaker 4: division with all the offensive five power they have, if

383
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,560
Speaker 4: they can just put it together offensively, I do like

384
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:05,160
Speaker 4: that number, chat, So I get why you have love

385
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:06,359
Speaker 4: for them coming into this year.

386
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 2: Why wouldn't you bet the division?

387
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 1: Like plus three hundred It feels like crazy good value

388
00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 1: for this team right now that it eighteen months ago

389
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 1: was the division winner. Don't forget like even though CJ.

390
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 1: Stroud went to the playoffs his rookie year, that was

391
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:27,880
Speaker 1: the last game of the year and they only got

392
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:32,160
Speaker 1: in because Trevor Lawrence got hurt and the Jags collapse,

393
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 1: like they're removed and they've got new coaching and a

394
00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 1: new administration, but a lot of the talent is still there.

395
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 1: It just feels like they've been completely forgotten about. Plus

396
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 1: three hundred feels just feels too long to me.

397
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Speaker 3: I'm playing, you know, I mean, I'm always playing the angle.

398
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Speaker 4: So basically, they start the season with the Panthers, So yeah,

399
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 4: we've loved the Panthers. We'll dive into them our next show.

400
00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 4: But they go sincey Houston forty nine ers Chiefs Seattle

401
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 4: than the Rams and their bye week. So to me,

402
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,359
Speaker 4: if I think if I could be patient here and

403
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,199
Speaker 4: they can go you know, three and four, I might

404
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 4: be able to get a better number at their bye

405
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 4: week point, because then they come out of their bye week,

406
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:19,640
Speaker 4: they come out and they play Vegas, Houston Chargers, Ariazonak.

407
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 3: They have a really tough start.

408
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 4: To the season with that sincey Houston, forty nine Ers,

409
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Speaker 4: Kansas City run.

410
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 3: Like, to me, that's just a brutal stretch.

411
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,440
Speaker 4: So I'm just gonna be patient here, and I think

412
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,639
Speaker 4: you'll get a better number if you wait in season,

413
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Speaker 4: just because I just don't see a scenario where they're

414
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 4: going to Cincinnati winning, coming home beating Houston, then going

415
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 4: at the forty nine Ers winning, and then coming home

416
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 4: beating the Chiefs like that, Just to me, for this

417
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 4: new coaching staff, that's a really really rough start.

418
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Speaker 3: Chat.

419
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Speaker 4: I know you probably didn't dive into that as much.

420
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 4: You agree that's that's a little little daunting to start

421
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 4: the year that way.

422
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 2: I did.

423
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Speaker 1: I dove into it for the first two games. I

424
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 1: honestly didn't dive beyond that. And I saw the Panthers

425
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 1: the schedule and I'm like, oh, well, that's an automatic l.

426
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:04,679
Speaker 2: For the Jacks.

427
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 1: There you go, and we'll talk about the Panthers in

428
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,160
Speaker 1: the NFC South in the next show. Like you just said,

429
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 1: a little hint, I know, we have asked people to

430
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Speaker 1: tail us on the Panthers for many, many years, and Simon,

431
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 1: you know, as you and I have discussed for the

432
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Speaker 1: book I'm working on, I have done a very deep

433
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 1: dive into my betting history over the past seven seasons,

434
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 1: all of which is tracked in the Action Network app.

435
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,439
Speaker 1: And the fun part of that is I was able

436
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Speaker 1: to download every single bet and track it to the

437
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 1: most minute level of detail, and my record betting bad teams,

438
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Speaker 1: the teams that we have lost the most, that we

439
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 1: are always so ready to bet Jags and Panthers like,

440
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:08,640
Speaker 1: it is amazing how frequently we lose those games when

441
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,959
Speaker 1: we are so sure that is the exact right side.

442
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 4: My favorite thing is you said, we've been betting the

443
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 4: Panthers for years. It was just one year. That's how

444
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 4: that's so many years. It felt like it took off

445
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 4: your life. It was just one year, but it felt

446
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 4: like years to you because.

447
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,120
Speaker 1: And by the way, it took years off her life.

448
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: And by the second half of the season, oh, they

449
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 1: were phenomenal.

450
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was the best. And we're talking about.

451
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 2: That when I was doing the research for Thursday's show.

452
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 3: Just that first ten weeks, Man, that was tough.

453
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: Over the weekend.

454
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 1: I did the research for Thursday show and I saw

455
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: the Panthers and I'm like, oh my god, they were

456
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: fucking brilliant. And so we'll talk about that on Thursday.

457
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,560
Speaker 1: But your point is well taken. Maybe it's just a

458
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 1: better time to buy the Jags.

459
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 4: It made impatient because that is I got you right

460
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 4: away when I saw that plus around it, and I

461
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:54,879
Speaker 4: was like, yeah, I was tempted, and I was like,

462
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 4: there's well, are they giving.

463
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 3: Me that number?

464
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:58,639
Speaker 4: Let me let me look into their schedule a little bit,

465
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 4: see if there's a better opportunity coming up in the air.

466
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 4: And that Bie a week jumped out to me that

467
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 4: that could be good value that bye week if you

468
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 4: want to take a position on them.

469
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 1: All right, So I think it's fair to say, Simon,

470
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: the Jags and the Texans are where the AFC South

471
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 1: projections fairly land. The Colts are such a disappointing franchise.

472
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 3: A year ago, Indianapolis fell short of the Super Bowl

473
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 3: on their quest to the NFL Mountain Town. That's where

474
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 3: we're going, and we're just getting started.

475
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: The Colts, they had the opportunity with Shane Steichen to

476
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 1: take it to the next level because I think we

477
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 1: were both really impressed with how he coached that team

478
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: two seasons ago and with myriad injuries, Anthony Richardson, Gardner

479
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 1: Minshew filling in. They are plus three sixty to win

480
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: the division, they are fifty to one to win the

481
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: one hundred to one to win the Super Bowl.

482
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 2: They'll win total to.

483
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 1: Me at seven and a half feels like what they've been.

484
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 1: It's a representation of them being stuck in mediocrity. Obviously,

485
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 1: the biggest play, and we'll dig into this, is Daniel

486
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 1: Jones is now going to be the quarterback. Anthony Richardson

487
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: has been a struggling with play and accuracy, but be

488
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 1: still less lingering injury issues. Like I feel like I

489
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 1: don't have a ton of strong opinions on this team.

490
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: They're a middle of the back team being greater as

491
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 1: a milk toast investment, Like what do I do here?

492
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 3: It's a tough team to read.

493
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 4: It's is it fully closed the window? I mean that

494
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 4: they had this incredible run where they had Andrew Luck

495
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 4: and they didn't have the offensive line, and as soon

496
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 4: as he retired, they finally had the offensive line and

497
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 4: they had the defense. They kept bringing to these veteran

498
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 4: quarterbacks and you know, people remember I liked Anthony richardson

499
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 4: the he's just he's failed in many ways, but they

500
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,719
Speaker 4: failed him as an organization. And like you just said, now

501
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 4: they've brought in Daniel Jones and you know, the books

502
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,919
Speaker 4: once again another line that people think they don't know

503
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 4: what they're doing with them. They're just throwing out seven

504
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 4: and a half. I have this number at seven. So

505
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 4: to me, the books priced are right. We're seven and

506
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 4: a half. That feels right because the season go two ways.

507
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 4: Like they have some talent on the team. They have it,

508
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 4: like you just said, I think we both agree they

509
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 4: have the coaching. Can they have the quarterback to play consistent?

510
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 4: They have They have not had a consistent quarterback since

511
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 4: Philip Rivers, So it's been.

512
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 2: It's been I didn't even count.

513
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 3: He was he was solid for them.

514
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 4: But yeah, I just it's just it's just tough to

515
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 4: watch where you know, you see these pieces, I mean,

516
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 4: like the tight end they just went and got this year.

517
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,959
Speaker 4: You know it was flip flopped. You know, you can

518
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 4: either take warn or you know, the guy you guys

519
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 4: got on the Bears. It's it was one or two

520
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 4: was they're gonna be the top tight end. These guys

521
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 4: are appearing like black Bowers, their apps, specimen freaks.

522
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 3: Do you want to get them touches? Okay?

523
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 4: Do you trust Anthony Richardson to be consistent throwing me

524
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 4: to a tight end? I mean his weaknesses are those

525
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:12,719
Speaker 4: five to ten yard passes. Yeah, And you know we

526
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 4: talked a couple of months ago and we joked about it,

527
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 4: but it's like the fact that he was missing offseason

528
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 4: programs because he's has stalled a shoulder injury.

529
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 3: It's just all bad for this Colts team. So if

530
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 3: you are out there betting this and betting the total,

531
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 3: you're holding on to hope of he takes that next

532
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 3: step or Daniel Jones can come in and you know,

533
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 3: we've seen him lead a team to plays.

534
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 4: We've seen him win a playoff game against Kirk Cousins,

535
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 4: that Vikings team like it's it's there for Daniel Jones.

536
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 4: We know he just needs the coach in the right

537
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 4: offensive line and the right scheme. Could this be it, like,

538
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 4: could that be the kind of thing where he just

539
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:48,919
Speaker 4: beats out Richardson Because you know it's it is a

540
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 4: big deal with the owner, you know, Jimmer says passed away,

541
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 4: like the daughters have taken over. I see them doing

542
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 4: it a little differently, and they're not to me as

543
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 4: committed to Anthony Rision as maybe their dad was. So

544
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 4: if he comes in, he's just not putting it together.

545
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 4: I could see them going Daniel Jones, which my opinion

546
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 4: would be better for them for this year, but not

547
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 4: long term. So it's it's a tough team chat. I

548
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 4: honestly haven't placed a single bet on this team in

549
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 4: any way. I'm leaning towards the under, but I'm just

550
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 4: waiting to see who the quarterback is because if it

551
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 4: is Daniel Jones, I'll throw a little on the over.

552
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 4: Fitz Richardson, I'll take the under, just because he has

553
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 4: been so inconsistent.

554
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: What what have you seen that makes you say the

555
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: daughters would run it differently and wouldn't be committed.

556
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 4: Damn the way I've just seen them talking about, like

557
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 4: talking how they go to practice. They're always meeting with

558
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 4: the gms, and their whole view is they're involved, but

559
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 4: they don't want they want to stay out and let

560
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 4: people do their jobs. Where Jim Mercy was notorious for

561
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 4: making the main decisions, right.

562
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,119
Speaker 3: He was the reason the quarterbacks came in. He was

563
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 3: the reason Philip Rivers came and he was a reason

564
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,919
Speaker 3: Calshner Wentz came in. I mean Matt Ryan came in.

565
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 4: He's always been the reason these different things have happened,

566
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 4: where apparently the Daughters are letting the front office now

567
00:27:57,680 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 4: and make the moves, which again, that to me is

568
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 4: a that's what you want, you want. You don't want

569
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 4: an ownership like Jerry Jones and these other owners that

570
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 4: are heavily involved in their teams. Just because you know

571
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 4: the oil business doesn't mean you know the football business.

572
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 4: And that's always been my biggest issue with these owners,

573
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 4: where they're doing stuff off ego and feel where yeah,

574
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 4: Jim Mercy was a great owner, he lucked into Peyton

575
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 4: Manning and Andrew Luck. Like, that's how it can be

576
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 4: in this league, right, you don't need to be a

577
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 4: genius to do those type of things. So I'm excited

578
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 4: to see the future of this Colts organization just because

579
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 4: of that. I really like like everything I've read about

580
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 4: the Daughters, it just seems like they're thinking in a

581
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,479
Speaker 4: new light, and they're also kind of the new generation

582
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 4: of trust in the numbers more so than feel. So, yeah,

583
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 4: it's gonna be interesting future with them, but we just

584
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 4: we just nail on the head it's Anthony Richardson or

585
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 4: Daniel Jones.

586
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 3: We'll know more later in the season.

587
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 4: Right now, as we sit here right now, they're both

588
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 4: splitting reps, so no one really knows who the who

589
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 4: the main quarterback is going to be there.

590
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: Listen before Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Robert Craft and

591
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: Jim mersay, we're just.

592
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 2: Dudes who had family or.

593
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 1: Wife wealth, who bought a team and we're trying to

594
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 1: figure out what to do with it, and we're completely

595
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: unexceptional until they landed on quarterbacks who made them look

596
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 1: like geniuses so they could act like these brilliant, thoughtful,

597
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: caring player first owners that everybody wanted to love. Right,

598
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 1: quarterbacks solve everything, which leads us to can Daniel Jones

599
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 1: be this year's Sam Darnold right? And can Shane Steiken

600
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: do what Kevin O'Connell did at least make him a

601
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 1: little more comfortable, put him in better positions than he's

602
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: been in whatever day Ball did that first year with

603
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, can Shane Steiken replicate some of that magic.

604
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 2: I don't know, but the.

605
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: Uncertainty and the fact we've seen so much evidence of

606
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 1: quarterbacks taken high in the first round getting opportunities revitalizing

607
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: their career at least for a season, makes me want

608
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: to pass completely on this team.

609
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I would be.

610
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 4: I would be more interested in them if I knew

611
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 4: exactly the quarterback was. But at this point, like we

612
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 4: just said, it's just like plus seven twenty for the

613
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 4: divisional odds. Yes, me and Chad love those type of bets,

614
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 4: but we can't just bet on the unknown right now

615
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 4: in my.

616
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: Opinion, speaking of plus seven twenty, the Tennessee Titans plus

617
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 1: seven twenty one hundred to one to win the conference,

618
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 1: two hundred and one to win the Super Bowl win

619
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 1: total five and a half.

620
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 3: Yeah. How you doing, man? Mike Begnes with Tennessee Titans. Okay, sir,

621
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 3: how are you doing? I'm doing great, man.

622
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 1: So we're going to turn this pick in here making

623
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 1: the number one pick.

624
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 3: How does that sound good?

625
00:30:54,560 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: Last season epically historically record setting back against the spread

626
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 1: run two and fifteen, the worst by any team in

627
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:10,479
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl era. When the season offseason began and

628
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: they had cam Ward and you know I liked it.

629
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: They signed Kevin Seitzer from the Lions to help improve

630
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 1: their offensive line.

631
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, sign what's that big signing for them, big signing.

632
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 1: And like we both love Bill Callahan as an offensive

633
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 1: line coach and Brian Callahan obviously the jury is out.

634
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 1: We've been tempted here a little bit.

635
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love this team and like Chad knows, I've

636
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 4: been talking about them for a couple of months now.

637
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 4: Was giving them out a plus eight hundred, plus nine hundred,

638
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 4: a couple of books for this division, and you know,

639
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 4: love the win total obviously over five and a half.

640
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 4: Like a couple of books open them at four and

641
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 4: a half, which to me was insane, but I think

642
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 4: that was because they hadn't drafted Cam Mooard. Yeah, and

643
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 4: we saw after they drafted them, Detumber has shifted up the.

644
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:01,959
Speaker 3: Five to five and a half almost all the books.

645
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 3: So love the win. Told them.

646
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 4: My whole view of this team is they were so

647
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 4: bad at the quarterback position. It was just such a negative.

648
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 4: We've never seen anything like it like it was. That

649
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 4: was like one of the things that pained me last

650
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 4: year was a really big blind spot too, the amount

651
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 4: of fans of our show begging us to fade the

652
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 4: Tennessee Titans every week, and me and Chad are just

653
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 4: too smart. We are too smart, and we just we

654
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 4: did avoid them. We need not bet on Tennessee, thank god,

655
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 4: but we should have just been fading Will Levis and

656
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 4: that train wreck of a team, I mean, the worst

657
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 4: special teams in football too.

658
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 3: So again easy things.

659
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 4: To correct though, right because it's the quarterback and special

660
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 4: teams to me was the glaring weaknesses. It wasn't their defense.

661
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 4: I mean, yes, their offense wasn't good, but it was

662
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 4: because once again, the quarterback position was nothing to me.

663
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 4: With Calvin Ridley with cam Ward that could be a

664
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 4: real connection passing game wise, and like people think that's

665
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 4: not that big of a deal, it is when you

666
00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 4: know Calvin Ridley has the talent, right he missed a

667
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 4: year because of gambling, when he's worked his way back

668
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,479
Speaker 4: these last couple of years, and everything I've read and

669
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 4: seen in camp, there is a spark there, like there

670
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 4: is he realizes there's potential in this.

671
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 3: Quarterback, unlike there was a Will Levis.

672
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 4: And you know they've talked about bringing in guys for

673
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 4: the special teams to change what they had last year,

674
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 4: and it's it's a big deal when you know you're

675
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 4: the worst team in football and special teams, that's an

676
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 4: easy correct bringing in different players, different coaching staff to

677
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 4: correct that weakness. And we talk it's it's the quarterback,

678
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 4: like it's in this division. If you hit right on

679
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 4: the quarterback, it can flip it. Because you're going from

680
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 4: the last play schedule in a weeks in a week

681
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 4: division that's a huge upper hand.

682
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 3: So this is another team that you know.

683
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 4: Will dive into Week one obviously, but they're at Denver

684
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 4: Week one, cam Ward. That is a horrible, horrible spot

685
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 4: for a rookie. Denver already is notorious. I can't wait

686
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 4: for having to drop the stat Denver at home in September.

687
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 4: You don't want to go up to Mile High and

688
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 4: play those early seasons. It's hot, the air, everything, it's thin.

689
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 4: Guys just do not do well in the first couple

690
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 4: of weeks up there, and you're putting a rooky on

691
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 4: the road there.

692
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 3: So if you want you've already missed a plus eight hundred.

693
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 4: If you don't want to take the plus seven hundred

694
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 4: plus seven to fifty that's out there. You can just wait,

695
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 4: assume they go own one and then take that position

696
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 4: again before they're at home against the Rams, which a

697
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 4: lot of people think that's a bad spot for them.

698
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 4: At home against the Rams, Rams and Notorious are starting slow.

699
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 4: I don't think that's as bad as the spot as

700
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 4: people think, especially the fact that their first game the

701
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 4: Rams against Seattle divisional game and then all on the

702
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 4: road's that's a tough spot for the Rams. So just

703
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:35,960
Speaker 4: if you want to be patient, you can. But to me,

704
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 4: I'm grabbing the win total now because I think it's

705
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,399
Speaker 4: still good. It's such great value taking the division odds.

706
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,399
Speaker 4: I just I love everything about this team and everything

707
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 4: I've seen about cam Ward. I love and again me

708
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 4: and you talk about these teams, Chad, that no one's

709
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 4: talking about, no one's talk about the number one pick

710
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 4: cam Ward.

711
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 3: That's a good spot you want to be in when

712
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 3: you're back in the team. You want to be what.

713
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:55,439
Speaker 4: Jane Daniels was last year, right, No one talking about

714
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 4: Jane and Daniels at this point. Everyone's talking about, you know,

715
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 4: not to bust Jad's balls, but Caleb Williams and the

716
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 4: upside of that Bears team. They're running up their win

717
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 4: total up to nine and a half. You want this,

718
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 4: You want low expectations on a team that was last

719
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 4: in the division. So yeah, love the win total for

720
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 4: this Tennessee team.

721
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:18,359
Speaker 1: You've said the magic word here, which is you kind

722
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 1: of have to believe that the Commanders have the Titans

723
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 1: have some kind of Commander's magic, that Jaden Daniels is

724
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 1: the football equivalent or that cam Ward is the football

725
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 1: equivalent of Jaden Daniels, and that in the same way,

726
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 1: the Commander's defense. You know, Brandon Anderson talked about this

727
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 1: when we were talking about playoff scenarios. It's easier for

728
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: a defense to incrementally improve and it has a bigger

729
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 1: impact on the team than the other side of the ball, right,

730
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 1: And so you have to believe that the Titans can

731
00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: incrementally improve on defense, and that cam Ward can be

732
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 1: as good as or just underneath what Jayden Daniels was,

733
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 1: and that that offensive line, you that's an inside baseball thing, right,

734
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:13,920
Speaker 1: leaving in Bill Callahan his ability to coach up an

735
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,800
Speaker 1: offensive line if they get a little more talented. You

736
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 1: got to believe a lot. So I feel like your

737
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:24,879
Speaker 1: entire bet is based on speculation and trying to find

738
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 1: an opportunity and a window more than it is anything

739
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 1: that any of us are going to find in the

740
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 1: data and the stats on the field any of that,

741
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,760
Speaker 1: because we just don't know. It's purely finding a fact

742
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 1: pattern and applying some historical institutional knowledge to it.

743
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 4: Mathematically, though, it's as a better it's very simphen you

744
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 4: break down and go through the numbers, it's literally almost

745
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 4: mathematically impossible to do what they did last year. So like,

746
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 4: just going off of that, you're like, there's it's only up,

747
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,439
Speaker 4: Like we just two and fifteen against the spread.

748
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 3: Waen never we say like it.

749
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 4: It was the craziest thing, ever, how bad they were

750
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 4: against the spread and how every game just Will Levis

751
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 4: somehow had the stupidest turnover we ever sing. We should

752
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 4: have known though that Week one against the Bears was

753
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 4: just the start of it all, and we should have

754
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 4: known right then and there this is this is a

755
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 4: train wreck of a team because they do not have

756
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 4: a quarterback. So yeah, really high expectations for cam Ward.

757
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 4: Every every step he's tacking since high school through college

758
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 4: to right now, he's improved every level. Every time he's

759
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 4: moved up to a new team, to a.

760
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 3: New level, he's always improved.

761
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm just I'm really excited for this guy.

762
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,320
Speaker 4: Just I'm I don't even want to say I have

763
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 4: him the same level as I do was Caleb Williams

764
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 4: and Jane Daniels.

765
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:42,240
Speaker 3: But I literally have him right there.

766
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 4: Like if it was if he came out last year,

767
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 4: I would have taken Jane Daniels. I had him ranked higher,

768
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 4: but honestly, obviously didn't know Jane Daniels was gonna turn

769
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 4: into what he did. But at the time I had

770
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 4: them really close, like one A, one B. So yeah,

771
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 4: just a lot of the hearsay people saying he would

772
00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:00,240
Speaker 4: have been behind Michael Pennix, I think that's a ridiculous kinds.

773
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 4: I think he would have gone before him last year

774
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 4: in the draft. I just I really loved the upside

775
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 4: of this kid came ward.

776
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:06,799
Speaker 2: What do you like about him?

777
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 4: Other than his footwork, He's just so cool, Like he

778
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 4: reminds me of Lamar where there's got there's bodies flying

779
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 4: around him, and he's just so composed in the pocket,

780
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 4: so cool, calm, relaxed, even after big moments, big hits,

781
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 4: He's always able to stay the level and I really

782
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 4: look for guys like that.

783
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 3: The moments are never too big for them.

784
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 4: And I saw a time and time again in college

785
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 4: where you know, he would have this incredible ten twelve

786
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 4: play drive and again, Miami's one of the worst defense

787
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:35,919
Speaker 4: they've ever seen. They would give up a seventy yard

788
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,399
Speaker 4: touchdown next play and he would just put his time,

789
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,399
Speaker 4: went back on back to work Draves team right down

790
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 4: the field do it again. He was just robotic in

791
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 4: that way, just such a command of the offense. And

792
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 4: even when I've watched the little stuff I've watched with

793
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 4: him at tennessee his just his poise and his movement.

794
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 4: Like I said, you can tell he's been working on

795
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 4: his feet even during the offseason. So yeah, I'm just

796
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 4: really really excited to see what he's gonna be like

797
00:38:59,040 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 4: as a pro.

798
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 2: He is a no drama draft pick, no, yeah, niche man.

799
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 1: We have not heard anything about him in the way

800
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 1: we heard about Caleb Williams last year, in the way

801
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: we heard about Shador Sanders this year, in the way

802
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 1: that we would hear about other number one overall picks.

803
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 1: Very little attention being paid to cam Ward and very

804
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 1: little expectations, which also could play to the strength of

805
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 1: what you're talking about. What is looking at all four

806
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: of these teams your favorite division bet.

807
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 3: I mean it's it's gonna be Titans over wins in

808
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 3: their division.

809
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,720
Speaker 1: Odds, Titans over five and a half and Titans plus

810
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 1: seven to twenty.

811
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:50,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, just they really there's always mean to you. I talked

812
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:51,760
Speaker 3: about there's teams.

813
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 4: I have a couple of fourth play teams from last

814
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 4: year I like this year, but there's always one team,

815
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 4: just like we talked about with Washington and the Vikings,

816
00:39:59,160 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 4: And there's always random teams like last year that just

817
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 4: pop out of nowhere. And this this Tennessee really seems

818
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 4: like that team to me. So the fact that their

819
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 4: win total is so low based on public opinion, I

820
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 4: love that value.

821
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:14,839
Speaker 2: It is massively under expectations. Uh.

822
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 1: I feel the same way about the Jags at plus

823
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:20,840
Speaker 1: three hundred and over seven and a half.

824
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 3: I like it.

825
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 4: I told people I'm gonna be patient on the Jags

826
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 4: and I bet their win total and the bet their

827
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 4: divisional odds after their bye week, just because it's it's

828
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 4: the start from hell for them. I just can't believe

829
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 4: the schedule makers gave them such an insane start to

830
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:35,360
Speaker 4: the season.

831
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 3: But it's it's.

832
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 4: Awesome because again you have a new coaching staff. It's

833
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 4: feet to the fire. You're gonna you're gonna learn quick.

834
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 4: Either you're gonna have a huge advantage on teams because

835
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,919
Speaker 4: they're not gonna be prepared for the Jaguars, or they're

836
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 4: just gonna get rolled because it's just it's a brutal

837
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 4: like the coaching the coaching staffs that they're going against

838
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 4: in the first couple of weeks. It's just it's a

839
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 4: really tough start the season for the Jaguars.

840
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: Look, if they get rolled, you got to start thinking

841
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 1: about what's gonna happen to Trevor Lawrence and how they're

842
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 1: going to manage that in the future, because that will

843
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 1: have been basically now going into a third season where

844
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:14,759
Speaker 1: they have not exceeded expectations. Last year, he was only

845
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: injured in the second half of the year. Yeah, so

846
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 1: the first half he was terrible. And we've talked about this, like,

847
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: I remember one year we loved Trevor Lawrence. I don't

848
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 1: know what it was thirty forty to one to lead

849
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 1: the league in passing touchdowns, because we felt like he

850
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 1: had progressed so far and then oftentimes in the red

851
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 1: zone it looked.

852
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 2: Like he regressed.

853
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 1: So this to me feels like make it or break

854
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,760
Speaker 1: a year for Trevor Lawrence. I know there's contract issues involved,

855
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 1: but if he doesn't perform this year and this team

856
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: doesn't do well, then what are you fucking doing?

857
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 2: What are you waiting for?

858
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, but again it'll be tough because with this division,

859
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 4: they could just once again get to seven wins.

860
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: And even if.

861
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 4: They want to move on from, what do you do?

862
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 4: You don't have the dress. You're not high enough in

863
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 4: the draft to move on from. So yeah, they're I

864
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 4: think they're stuck with him for at least two more

865
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 4: seasons just because of the money.

866
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 3: Like we talked about the contract and.

867
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 4: I just we talk he's inconsistent, Like he'll he'll win games,

868
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,879
Speaker 4: he can steal games for you, but then he'll turn

869
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 4: out against one of the worst teams and just not

870
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 4: show up or have a ton of turnovers. And yeah,

871
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 4: we're just we're on the same thing with the Jags.

872
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 4: It's like it's a make or break year and we like,

873
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 4: we like the unknown, but you like a little more

874
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:28,759
Speaker 4: than I do well.

875
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like my favorite bet has

876
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 1: a little more you can see it to believe it substance,

877
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: even though it's probably wrong, and your favorite bet has

878
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 1: a you gotta believe it and understand that this is

879
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 1: going to happen somewhere in the NFL, and you're making

880
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 1: your bet on this team and this quarterback to do that,

881
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: to make that Commander's type leap, to make that Texans

882
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:55,919
Speaker 1: type leap from twenty twenty three.

883
00:42:57,080 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 2: Whether they're saying yours with more conviction.

884
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 4: I say this Titan's win thing that when I when

885
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 4: I do these, when I grade these out, this is

886
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 4: like one of the better higher grades I have on

887
00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 4: a win total like this has a higher than a

888
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 4: sixer chance of hitting. That's like when I when I

889
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 4: run those type of numbers, that's really good win total wise.

890
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 4: That's why I'm so I mean you months ago, I

891
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,279
Speaker 4: was really emphatic about the team because as soon as

892
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 4: I saw that, the fact that that's that's how big

893
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 4: of a difference it is putting in a quarterback at

894
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:23,479
Speaker 4: a rookie that is that much.

895
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 3: Hot higher grade than I have it on Will Levis.

896
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:27,799
Speaker 4: It's it is that big of an upgrade to a

897
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 4: team that last Y Reid bad luck and we talk

898
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 4: all the time about the last place schedule like it's

899
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 4: it's a cheak code. It's again, we'll get into all

900
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 4: these win totals and different teams. There's teams I don't

901
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:38,840
Speaker 4: love that much. Like we started the Jaguars. I'm not

902
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 4: in love with them, but I get why Chad's bender

903
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 4: over because their second half is very easy. Yeah right,

904
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 4: and they so they could easily have a nice stretch

905
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 4: than the season. So that's that's something we're really breaking

906
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 4: down here is we believe in these teams. I'm giving

907
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 4: you my high hopes of this Tennessee team, but like

908
00:43:57,520 --> 00:43:59,879
Speaker 4: I said, I'm probably gonna be fading them week one

909
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 4: because it's such a bad spot.

910
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 2: All right.

911
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: So that was the AFC South Divisional betting preview. We

912
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action

913
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 1: Network YouTube page when we Talk NFC South.

914
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 2: Also check out at.

915
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: Real Chad Milman on YouTube forclips and highlights.

916
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:22,680
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917
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 1: Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe

918
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 1: me a Spotstars say whatever you want.

919
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:35,840
Speaker 2: Feedback is the gifts. Until next time, Love, you. Action

920
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:39,000
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921
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,240
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923
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