WEBVTT - It's All About The Money

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Mark Mos Show,

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<v Speaker 1>where we talk about the decentralized revolution. Of course, we

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the way the world is changing right before

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<v Speaker 1>our very eyes. As I say, the world we're going

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<v Speaker 1>into is not the same as the one that we're

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<v Speaker 1>leaving behind, and we like to look at it through

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<v Speaker 1>the lens of of course politics, finance and technology, and

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<v Speaker 1>the technology that is changing the world is of course

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin and the decentralized technology. And you know, I like

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<v Speaker 1>to bring to you some of the some different ways

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<v Speaker 1>to look at the world, and I try to expand

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<v Speaker 1>your thinking so you can really understand these complex subjects

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<v Speaker 1>that we're dealing with, some of the latest breaking news,

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<v Speaker 1>and some interesting people to listen to as well, so

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have to hear me talk all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>But today I want to start off talking about something

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<v Speaker 1>that's basically dominating most conversations today and I want to

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<v Speaker 1>explain it to you in a way that you probably

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<v Speaker 1>haven't yet heard. And so we're going to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>this because this is actually what's changing the world, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's really all about the money. So we said, I

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<v Speaker 1>talked about it from politics of finance and technology and

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<v Speaker 1>really this financial piece on about an eighty year timeframe,

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<v Speaker 1>we have these financial revolutions, and that's exactly what we're

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<v Speaker 1>facing right now. We can see where at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of a long term debt credit cycle, potentially a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>year sovereign debt bubble that's blowing up. And of course

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<v Speaker 1>you see all over the news everything you know. You

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<v Speaker 1>see inflation, and you see debt sealing limits increase, and

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<v Speaker 1>money being printed and sent around the world to people, etc.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's hard to really understand what's going on, especially

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<v Speaker 1>when you have some intellectual mouthpieces like Paul Krugman talking

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<v Speaker 1>about this and trying to explain to you. But it's

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<v Speaker 1>all wrong. Now, if you watch my main YouTube channel,

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<v Speaker 1>just the Mark Moss YouTube channel, like to start off

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<v Speaker 1>the videos by saying, I'm trying to change the way

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<v Speaker 1>you think about money because almost everything you've learned is wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>And when you listen to people like Paul Krugman, they're

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<v Speaker 1>lying to you. So of course everything you've learned is

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<v Speaker 1>wrong because they're telling you the wrong information. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about that specifically, but also what we learn

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<v Speaker 1>in school is wrong. They don't teach you about the

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<v Speaker 1>way money works. They don't teach you about the way

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<v Speaker 1>the financial system works or the banking system works. And

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<v Speaker 1>of course they don't tell you how to get wealthy.

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<v Speaker 1>They tell you how to basically live within this system

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<v Speaker 1>without disrupting it, without changing the way the system works,

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<v Speaker 1>and without really getting ahead. Which is why, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>today over about half of all people retiring today, that

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<v Speaker 1>baby boomers, are broke. They have no money. About half

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<v Speaker 1>of the people today couldn't come up with a thousand

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<v Speaker 1>dollars for an emergency. And so how is that financial

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<v Speaker 1>education you've been getting working for you? If half the

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<v Speaker 1>people retiring have no money, and of the people that

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<v Speaker 1>of the half that do, half of them have less

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<v Speaker 1>than one hundred thousand dollars, which is not enough to

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<v Speaker 1>retire off of. So how's that financial education been working?

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<v Speaker 1>I saw I think sixty percent fifty or sixty percent

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<v Speaker 1>of people making over one hundred thousand dollars per year,

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<v Speaker 1>which most of you might consider that being rich or

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<v Speaker 1>well off or something like that, about half of those

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<v Speaker 1>people report living paycheck to paycheck. So how's that financial

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<v Speaker 1>education coming for you? It's obviously not working very well.

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<v Speaker 1>We saw, I've talked about it on the radio last

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<v Speaker 1>week in Baltimore and then in Chicago. In Baltimore was

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<v Speaker 1>more about reading. In Chicago, fifty five school districts, not

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<v Speaker 1>one single student, not one could pass math or reading.

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<v Speaker 1>So how's that education going for you? So let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about this a little bit and let's explain what's going on. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>The Treasury, which is the United States government. So we

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<v Speaker 1>have the Reserve and we have the Treasury. The Treasury

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<v Speaker 1>is the United States government. The Federal Reserve is a bank.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a collection of banks, and it's a private bank. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>for some of you listen to this, you doubt that

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<v Speaker 1>it was set up as a private group of banks.

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<v Speaker 1>It is recognized and allowed by Congress. So it's semi

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<v Speaker 1>quasi private, if you will. It's really private. It does

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<v Speaker 1>maintain its autonomy, and they control monetary policy, so they

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<v Speaker 1>control the banks. The United States government and the Treasury

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<v Speaker 1>control the fiscal all right, so that's the money being

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<v Speaker 1>spent in the government. The Fed just controls the monetary policy,

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<v Speaker 1>which is interest rates, in the amount of the banks reserves, etc.

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<v Speaker 1>So the United States government, the Treasury put out a

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<v Speaker 1>report this last week. It's called the Financial Report of

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<v Speaker 1>the United States Government. Fiscal year two twenty two. It's

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<v Speaker 1>at Fiscal Treasury dot gov. If you want to go

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<v Speaker 1>read this report. Now that's two hundred and fifty eight pages,

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<v Speaker 1>so you probably don't want to read all that, but

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<v Speaker 1>it's worth a read. So this is directly from the Treasury.

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<v Speaker 1>This is their own report, and it starts out on

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<v Speaker 1>the first page with a letter written by Janet Yellen,

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<v Speaker 1>which of course is the head. She's the Secretary of

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<v Speaker 1>the Treasury, the Department of the Treasury, which of course

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<v Speaker 1>is the United States government. Basically in this document, surprising

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<v Speaker 1>that they would actually put this document out because in

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<v Speaker 1>this document they basically make the case that the government

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<v Speaker 1>is bankrupt, insolvent, what we'd call a zombie company, and

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<v Speaker 1>they make the statement that says the path that we're

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<v Speaker 1>on is not sustainable. That's what it says. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>pretty interesting they would put out this information. Now, like

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<v Speaker 1>I said, everything you've learned is wrong. So typically they're

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<v Speaker 1>trying to change the story, change the narrave show you

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<v Speaker 1>information that maybe misleads you. But in this information, they've

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<v Speaker 1>basically come out and told you, and like I said,

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<v Speaker 1>even made the statement that it's not a sustainable path.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to see the source of the information. I

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<v Speaker 1>want to see what they have to say first before

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<v Speaker 1>I start listening to other people's opinions of that data.

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<v Speaker 1>Now back to Paul Kruegman. Paul Kruegman is, like I said,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of the mouthpiece of the Fed, the Treasury. He's

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<v Speaker 1>the cheerleader that basically says everything they do is correct.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course Paul Krugman is not correct. He's never

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<v Speaker 1>been correct. Paul Kruegman is the one who famously said

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<v Speaker 1>the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater

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<v Speaker 1>than the fax machines. That's what he said. Ten years

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<v Speaker 1>from now. The phrase quote information economy will sound silly.

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<v Speaker 1>So look, when somebody, when we have economists, we have forecasters,

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<v Speaker 1>when they give us their information, we should take that

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<v Speaker 1>and pay attention to it, and then we should then,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, see if that information comes true. So if

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<v Speaker 1>this is somebody we want to continue to listen to. So,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, al Gore said in two thousand and nine

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<v Speaker 1>that the North Pole will be ice free by the

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<v Speaker 1>summer of two thirteen because of man made global warming.

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<v Speaker 1>The polar bears would be gone by twenty thirteen. So

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<v Speaker 1>he said this in two thousand and nine, so we

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<v Speaker 1>have to take a look at that. We're to look

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<v Speaker 1>at what Paul Krugman says, I want to come back.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna explain that even more, and then we're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>dig into this Treasury report. I'm going to show you

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<v Speaker 1>what they said, what the data shows, and then we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna look at some data points actually in the economy,

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<v Speaker 1>in the markets, in real estate to see if this

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<v Speaker 1>is true, so you can understand exactly what's going on

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<v Speaker 1>how to better navigate this. If you're just tune in

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<v Speaker 1>right now, you're listen to the Mark Moish show, we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about, of course, the decentralized Revolution, really kind of

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<v Speaker 1>focusing right now on this eighty year financial revolution cycle

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<v Speaker 1>that's being reset right now. I got a whole lot

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<v Speaker 1>to cover at this show. You don't want to miss this.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna break it down and it's gonna make sense

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<v Speaker 1>to you. All right, So I gotta take a quick break.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna be back in a minute. You don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to miss this, don't go away. I'm gonna be right back,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, Welcome back. If you just tune in, you're

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<v Speaker 1>listening to the Mark Mos show, we talk about the

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<v Speaker 1>decentralized revolution, how the world is changing as we look

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<v Speaker 1>at it through the lens of politics, finance, and technology.

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<v Speaker 1>Today we're looking at the financial revolution piece, and I

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<v Speaker 1>was explaining how when we have experts and they make predictions,

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<v Speaker 1>we should listen to those and then we should see

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<v Speaker 1>if they got them right, to see if it's somebody

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<v Speaker 1>that we want to continue listening to. So as I

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<v Speaker 1>was saying with al Gore in two thousand and nine,

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<v Speaker 1>he told us that the ice would be gone, the

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<v Speaker 1>polar bears would be extinct by summer of twenty thirteen.

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<v Speaker 1>Here we are a decade later, and the ice caps

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<v Speaker 1>are even bigger than they were before. Polar bears are

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<v Speaker 1>flourishing more than they ever have. So Al Gore is

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<v Speaker 1>someone we should not be listening to in regards to climate.

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<v Speaker 1>And back to Paul Kruegman telling us about the economy,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the exact same thing. He said that the internet's

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<v Speaker 1>impact in the economy has been no greater than the

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<v Speaker 1>fax machine, and that ten years from now the information

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<v Speaker 1>economy would sound silly, but yet here we are in

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<v Speaker 1>the information economy. The information economy, you're listening to me

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<v Speaker 1>right now making my living in the information economy, and

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<v Speaker 1>of course that doesn't sound silly. And so again, is

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<v Speaker 1>Paul Krugman someone we should be listening to And I

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<v Speaker 1>would say absolutely not. But of course the government needs

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<v Speaker 1>someone to be out there shilling their data points, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's exactly what Paul Krugman does. Now, there's an article

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<v Speaker 1>that came out this week that thought was pretty interesting,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course he's a Nobel Prize winning economist, but

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<v Speaker 1>he recently wrote some articles in the New York Times, which,

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<v Speaker 1>of course The New York Times is also a mouthpiece

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<v Speaker 1>for the government. It's important to listen to the information

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<v Speaker 1>and know where it came from, what their interests are,

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<v Speaker 1>what their biases might be, and then you have to

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<v Speaker 1>start to learn to separate the facts from opinion. And

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<v Speaker 1>so we know that, for example, if I was reading

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<v Speaker 1>RT Times, I would know, well, that's a Russian news

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<v Speaker 1>outlet and it's probably biased towards Russia. If I listened

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<v Speaker 1>to the New York Times or the Washington Post, well,

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<v Speaker 1>I know that's like a CIA mouthpiece, and I have

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<v Speaker 1>to know that it's biased from that potentially, at this point,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe some of the most neutral news might be Al Jazeera.

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<v Speaker 1>I'd like to get some news from there. I tried

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<v Speaker 1>to look at it from both sides, so I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to be equally critical of both sides that are trying

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<v Speaker 1>to spin this bias, but still fact check me as well.

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<v Speaker 1>It starts to try to separate what I tell you

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<v Speaker 1>as fact from what I tell you as opinion, so

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<v Speaker 1>you can start to formulate your own ideas anyway. So

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<v Speaker 1>he wrote this in The New York Times, and he

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<v Speaker 1>claimed that the debt of the government is quote over

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<v Speaker 1>hyped issue and isn't all that unusual from a historical perspective. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>this article that came out said that his attempts to

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<v Speaker 1>support these employ the kind of fraudulent accounting that would

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<v Speaker 1>land a corporate executive in jail. So what he's doing

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<v Speaker 1>is he's taking this data and trying to spin it

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<v Speaker 1>to support his point. But it's such it's such a

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<v Speaker 1>it's so much of a speculator, so much of a

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<v Speaker 1>spin that it would literally land a corporate executive in

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<v Speaker 1>prison if they try to do this. He says that,

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<v Speaker 1>of course he's trying to say that taming quote the

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<v Speaker 1>federal debt should be well down on the list of

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<v Speaker 1>government priorities. So he's saying that it's not a problem.

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<v Speaker 1>The debt's not a problem. We shouldn't even be worried about.

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<v Speaker 1>A matter of fact, it should be way down the

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<v Speaker 1>list of all the things that we worried about before.

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<v Speaker 1>After we worry about things like climate change and child poverty.

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<v Speaker 1>Because the debt projections have become quote much less dire

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<v Speaker 1>over the past decade or so. In reality, the debt

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<v Speaker 1>is far higher than projected, and Krugman's own words prove it. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>let's again, let's see what these numbers are. I'm gonna

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<v Speaker 1>give you the numbers directly from the Treasury's own report,

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<v Speaker 1>not from Paul Kruegman, and not opinion based. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to look at what the Treasury put out now. I

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<v Speaker 1>do want to just say, going back to Paul Kruegman,

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<v Speaker 1>in two thousand and nine, under President Obama, they started

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<v Speaker 1>racking up debt and they projected nine trillion dollars in

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<v Speaker 1>deficits over the coming decades. Over that wou'd be from

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand nine nineteen, Krugman wrote back then, quote, even

0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.800
<v Speaker 1>if we do run these deficits, federal debt would be

0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:56.719
<v Speaker 1>ninety percent of GDP in twenty nineteen, or substantially less

0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:58.040
<v Speaker 1>than it was at the end of World War Two.

0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:02.800
<v Speaker 1>So again the Noel Prize winning economist is telling us

0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:06.320
<v Speaker 1>that no problem, no problem running these deficits. Even if

0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:08.120
<v Speaker 1>we do, even if we do run a nine trillion

0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.560
<v Speaker 1>dollars in deficits, it's gonna be way less than it

0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:13.480
<v Speaker 1>would in World War Two. However, he said it would

0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.319
<v Speaker 1>be ninety percent. However, it turned out to be twenty

0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:19.400
<v Speaker 1>one percent higher than that one hundred and ten percent.

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:23.800
<v Speaker 1>So again he's wrong. He's wrong, he's wrong, he's wrong.

0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 1>I don't know why we continue to look at him

0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:27.160
<v Speaker 1>or listen to him, But let's take a look at

0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:30.320
<v Speaker 1>some of these things that the Treasury put out in

0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:33.640
<v Speaker 1>their own data. Now, what we can see is that

0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:38.360
<v Speaker 1>the US has a massive spending problem. So if we

0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:41.000
<v Speaker 1>go back, Unfortunately I can't show you the chart because

0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.800
<v Speaker 1>we're here on the radio. But if I showed you

0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:47.800
<v Speaker 1>a chart, you can go onto the thread. So the

0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:51.360
<v Speaker 1>FED puts out its own data, and you can go

0:13:51.400 --> 0:13:55.079
<v Speaker 1>to Fred dot st. Louis, fed dot org and you

0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.400
<v Speaker 1>can get all this data that the FED actually puts out.

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:00.080
<v Speaker 1>I like to go to the source. And so if

0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:02.439
<v Speaker 1>we look at this, we can see basically a chart

0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 1>of lines which shows the debt, the amount of debt

0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.440
<v Speaker 1>that we're building, and the amount of gross domestic product

0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:12.040
<v Speaker 1>that we're producing. So remember wealth is not money, wealth

0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:14.040
<v Speaker 1>is goods and services. So we want to look at

0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:17.280
<v Speaker 1>the gross domestic product, the amount of goods and services

0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:19.600
<v Speaker 1>that are being produced. Now it's a little bit of

0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:22.280
<v Speaker 1>amis leading number because the amount of spending the government

0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:26.160
<v Speaker 1>actually does that increases. The GDP has grown bigger and

0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:28.320
<v Speaker 1>bigger and bigger. But that's a whole another topic for

0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:31.360
<v Speaker 1>another time. But if we look at just the GDP growth,

0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:36.280
<v Speaker 1>we can see that until about nineteen seventy, the GDP

0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:39.880
<v Speaker 1>growth and debt we're growing at about the same pace.

0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:43.920
<v Speaker 1>But since around nineteen seventy they really started getting off,

0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:48.360
<v Speaker 1>really nineteen eighties where they just really took a drastic turn,

0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.440
<v Speaker 1>and we can see that now the amount of debt

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:57.640
<v Speaker 1>we're growing is way outpacing the amount of growth. Now,

0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:01.000
<v Speaker 1>the problem with this is that means it's not sustainable. Now.

0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:03.880
<v Speaker 1>The scam is that they tell us that, hey, we

0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.760
<v Speaker 1>took an economic hit, we're not going to get as

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.560
<v Speaker 1>much growth as we normally would because of whatever recession

0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 1>or whatever the pandemic or whatever it is, and so

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 1>we should just take on a little bit of debt.

0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.840
<v Speaker 1>Let's go ahead and spend more than we bring in,

0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:19.960
<v Speaker 1>because we'll make it up later. It's sort of like

0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:22.560
<v Speaker 1>if you lost your job and you're gonna live on

0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:24.440
<v Speaker 1>a credit card for a little while. But it's okay

0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:26.640
<v Speaker 1>because when you get another job, then you're gonna go

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.600
<v Speaker 1>ahead and pay that debt back off. Or you're going

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 1>to go into debt to build a new product or

0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:35.440
<v Speaker 1>a business line, or a new business, and then when

0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:37.680
<v Speaker 1>the business grows, you wible to pay that off. The

0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:39.760
<v Speaker 1>problem is that the business doesn't ever take off, it

0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:41.480
<v Speaker 1>doesn't grow, but yet you keep spending more and more

0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:43.640
<v Speaker 1>and more and more debt, and eventually, eventually it's going

0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:45.480
<v Speaker 1>to hit. Eventually it's going to hit. But the problem

0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:48.680
<v Speaker 1>is all that debt bogs you down and doesn't allow

0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.040
<v Speaker 1>you to grow. All the money that should be going

0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:54.760
<v Speaker 1>into productive investments gets spent just to cover the debt,

0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:58.160
<v Speaker 1>or what we call the interest coverage. Now you might

0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:01.760
<v Speaker 1>have heard the term of a zombie company before. We

0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:04.240
<v Speaker 1>have lots of zombie companies in the US and around

0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:06.760
<v Speaker 1>the world. And a zombie company would basically be a

0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:12.360
<v Speaker 1>company that that doesn't make enough money enough profit to

0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:16.360
<v Speaker 1>cover even the interest on their debt. That's a zombie company.

0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:20.000
<v Speaker 1>So no matter how much they grow, they just can't

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:22.160
<v Speaker 1>pay off the debt because the just to cover that

0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>the interest is more than the money they make. Now,

0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:30.880
<v Speaker 1>could the government be in that position? Could the government?

0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:34.320
<v Speaker 1>Could the United States government be a zombie company. I'm

0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 1>going to answer that question with some data and some facts,

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:38.640
<v Speaker 1>and we're gonna show you exactly what the Treasury said

0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:42.520
<v Speaker 1>about where we're going. And I gotta be honest, it's shocking,

0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:46.200
<v Speaker 1>and you're gonna understand exactly why we're arguing over debtsillion limits,

0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:50.040
<v Speaker 1>and you're gonna understand exactly what is going to happen

0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 1>because there's no other option once you hear the data

0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:55.280
<v Speaker 1>directly from them. So let's take into that. I'm going

0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:56.960
<v Speaker 1>to take a break. If you're just tune and you're

0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.880
<v Speaker 1>listening to the Markma Show talking about the decentralized rever

0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:02.960
<v Speaker 1>we're talking about this eighty year financial revolution that we're

0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:05.560
<v Speaker 1>focusing on right now. I'm going to cover a lot

0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:07.040
<v Speaker 1>you don't want to miss this, I'll be back. Don't

0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:10.080
<v Speaker 1>go away, all right, welcome back. If you just tune in,

0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:13.160
<v Speaker 1>you're listening to the Markama Show. We're talking about, of course,

0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:15.680
<v Speaker 1>each and every week, the decents realized revolution, the politics,

0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:19.480
<v Speaker 1>finance and technology. We're focusing on just the financial revolution

0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:21.840
<v Speaker 1>aspect today and we're going over this report that the

0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:24.840
<v Speaker 1>US Treasury just put out. Now, I explained to you

0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:27.640
<v Speaker 1>what a zombie company was. A zombie company is someone

0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:32.840
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't have enough income to cover the interest revenues,

0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:38.080
<v Speaker 1>must cover expenses plus interest, or your zombie. Now, the

0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:41.440
<v Speaker 1>US government has a problem, and that is that they're

0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:45.800
<v Speaker 1>entitlement spending, which is the mandatory This is money they

0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:48.360
<v Speaker 1>owe to people, you know, Medicare and Medicaid, so security, etc.

0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:53.400
<v Speaker 1>They have to pay this mandatory expenses. So just that alone,

0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:56.880
<v Speaker 1>not all the other expenses. Just that plus the interest

0:17:57.000 --> 0:18:00.760
<v Speaker 1>on the debt is more than the revenue, the tax

0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:04.920
<v Speaker 1>revenues they bring in. That means there a zombie company.

0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:10.320
<v Speaker 1>Now that doesn't take into consideration all the other long

0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:13.560
<v Speaker 1>term contracts they're committed to, like defense contracts. But let's

0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:16.800
<v Speaker 1>go ahead and skip past that. So just per the Treasury,

0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:22.280
<v Speaker 1>the CBO Congressional Budget Office. This is the government estimates

0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:24.240
<v Speaker 1>that for this year twenty twenty three, there will be

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:28.120
<v Speaker 1>four point eight trillion in tax revenue. But the mandatory expenses,

0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:32.800
<v Speaker 1>which are the entitlements, also the defense budget eight billion

0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 1>for defense and seven hundred billion, which is the net

0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:39.040
<v Speaker 1>interest on federal debt equals five point three trillion. So

0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:41.680
<v Speaker 1>you have to be super good at math. Five point

0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:45.040
<v Speaker 1>three trillion of mandatory expenses is more than the four

0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:51.080
<v Speaker 1>point eight trillion of income. So that's a zombie company.

0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:53.840
<v Speaker 1>Now that doesn't include all the other spending. Well, I'm

0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:57.040
<v Speaker 1>not talking about, you know, all the other money that

0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.200
<v Speaker 1>we're sending into Ukraine and all the other money we're

0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:01.960
<v Speaker 1>sending to other country for gender studies. I'm not krying

0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:04.200
<v Speaker 1>all the money for welfare and UBI. I'm not talking

0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:07.080
<v Speaker 1>about any of that. I'm just talking about the mandatory,

0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:10.200
<v Speaker 1>the entitlements, the money we owe to other people, medicare, medicaids,

0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:12.320
<v Speaker 1>so security. I'm talking about the defense, and I'm talking

0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:15.399
<v Speaker 1>about the interest on the debt. That's it. Now. You

0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:17.800
<v Speaker 1>also know that the FED is on a warpath to

0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:21.680
<v Speaker 1>fight inflation. They are raising rates higher, higher, higher, higher, higher,

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:24.920
<v Speaker 1>to fight inflation. But there's a couple of problems that

0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:29.800
<v Speaker 1>lead that really lead to the zombie company really going overboard.

0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:32.920
<v Speaker 1>And so as they continue to raise, as the FED

0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:36.480
<v Speaker 1>continues to raise interest rates, the net interest on the

0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:41.080
<v Speaker 1>debt goes up. So per the CBO Congressional Budget's Office

0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:45.400
<v Speaker 1>estimates for this year, they estimated seven hundred billion in

0:19:45.400 --> 0:19:49.200
<v Speaker 1>interest on the federal debt. However, you keep hearing about, well,

0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:51.240
<v Speaker 1>the economy is still pretty good, the jobs markets so

0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:53.119
<v Speaker 1>pretty good. The FED is going to keep hiking rates.

0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:56.240
<v Speaker 1>Now they're talking about the FED getting to potentially a

0:19:56.440 --> 0:20:00.880
<v Speaker 1>six percent rate, six per What does that mean, Well,

0:20:00.880 --> 0:20:04.240
<v Speaker 1>that means at six percent, the interest of the government

0:20:04.320 --> 0:20:07.840
<v Speaker 1>is now not seven hundred billion, it's about one point

0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:12.040
<v Speaker 1>eight trillion, one point eight tit Now that's on the

0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:14.200
<v Speaker 1>thirty one and a half trillion dollars a debt we

0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:17.239
<v Speaker 1>have today. That's not including where it might be by

0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:19.760
<v Speaker 1>the end of the year. So that's not seven hundred billion,

0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:23.400
<v Speaker 1>it's one point eight one. That's that's an extra trillion dollars,

0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:28.280
<v Speaker 1>an extra trillion dollars a year. Now, the CBO Congressional

0:20:28.240 --> 0:20:31.560
<v Speaker 1>Budget Office, again they have these projections where they show,

0:20:31.840 --> 0:20:35.240
<v Speaker 1>just like any business would, what their revenues are expected

0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:38.239
<v Speaker 1>to be moving forward twenty twenty four, twenty five, six,

0:20:38.359 --> 0:20:40.879
<v Speaker 1>twenty seven, all the way till twenty thirty three. So

0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:42.840
<v Speaker 1>they show the revenues, how much they expect to get

0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:45.280
<v Speaker 1>from income tax, perill tax, etc. And then they show

0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:48.080
<v Speaker 1>their outlays and they break it down by mandatory, what's

0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:51.080
<v Speaker 1>the mandatory expense they have to spend, and then what's discretionary.

0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:53.840
<v Speaker 1>So mandatory for you personally would be like your house payment,

0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:56.239
<v Speaker 1>your electricity bill, or your car payment. You have to

0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:57.960
<v Speaker 1>pay those things or you get put on the street

0:20:58.000 --> 0:21:01.119
<v Speaker 1>and you have no car. Discretionary would be like you know,

0:21:01.240 --> 0:21:03.399
<v Speaker 1>going clothes shopping, going out to dinner, and things like that,

0:21:03.480 --> 0:21:06.240
<v Speaker 1>going on a vacation, so you have the mandatory and discretion.

0:21:06.320 --> 0:21:08.360
<v Speaker 1>They break that out and then they show the total deficits,

0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:10.760
<v Speaker 1>so the shortcoming. So in twenty twenty three they're showing

0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:14.520
<v Speaker 1>a deficit of one point four trillion. By the end

0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:17.879
<v Speaker 1>of the decade, they're showing it to have a By

0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:21.560
<v Speaker 1>twenty thirty, you have a deficit of two point one trillion,

0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:27.440
<v Speaker 1>So basically adding in two trillion dollars of debt every

0:21:27.440 --> 0:21:31.720
<v Speaker 1>single year, two trillion dollars of debt every single year. Now,

0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:36.200
<v Speaker 1>first of all, this is based off of tax revenues

0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:39.000
<v Speaker 1>staying the same, which they're not. As a matter of fact,

0:21:39.200 --> 0:21:44.040
<v Speaker 1>tax revenues are down nine percent year over year, Wire

0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:46.879
<v Speaker 1>tax revenues down. Well, turns out the FED is on

0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:49.720
<v Speaker 1>a warpath. The Fed is on a warpath to stop inflation.

0:21:49.840 --> 0:21:52.399
<v Speaker 1>They want prices to stop going up. They want prices

0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:55.000
<v Speaker 1>to stay stable. They don't really want prices to come

0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:57.880
<v Speaker 1>back down, but they want prices to stop going up.

0:21:57.920 --> 0:22:01.320
<v Speaker 1>So what they're doing is they're crushing demand. And if

0:22:01.320 --> 0:22:05.120
<v Speaker 1>we raise rates higher, that will bring asset prices down,

0:22:05.160 --> 0:22:07.760
<v Speaker 1>your stocks, bonds, your retirement account, that will bring your

0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:10.520
<v Speaker 1>real estate, your house value down. And if we can

0:22:10.640 --> 0:22:13.320
<v Speaker 1>bring the value your assets down, people feel broke and

0:22:13.320 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 1>they don't spend as much. That's their theory. The problem

0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:21.880
<v Speaker 1>with that is that as asset prices come down, then

0:22:22.000 --> 0:22:25.159
<v Speaker 1>there's no capital gains. Like I'm not selling stocks or

0:22:25.200 --> 0:22:27.560
<v Speaker 1>real estate at a profit, there's no capital gains tax

0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:29.879
<v Speaker 1>going to the governments. Now, tax revenues went down. Also,

0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:33.240
<v Speaker 1>they want people to feel broke so they stop spending.

0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:38.000
<v Speaker 1>But if people stop spending, then the tax revenue drops.

0:22:38.280 --> 0:22:42.359
<v Speaker 1>So the CBO has this baseline projection, but they're basing

0:22:42.440 --> 0:22:46.240
<v Speaker 1>it off of tax revenues going up, but in reality,

0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:50.480
<v Speaker 1>tax revenues are coming down. They're down nine percent year

0:22:50.520 --> 0:22:52.840
<v Speaker 1>over year. Now, if we have a recession, which it

0:22:52.880 --> 0:22:54.320
<v Speaker 1>looks like we're going into, I'm going to have talked

0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:55.880
<v Speaker 1>about some of the data here in a minute. If

0:22:55.880 --> 0:22:58.480
<v Speaker 1>we have a recession, then we would expect tax revenues

0:22:58.520 --> 0:23:02.560
<v Speaker 1>to dip by twenty percent. So now what does this

0:23:02.680 --> 0:23:08.280
<v Speaker 1>due to the qualifications to calculations, So you can see

0:23:08.320 --> 0:23:12.080
<v Speaker 1>we're in a really, really big problem. Now, the CBO,

0:23:12.160 --> 0:23:15.400
<v Speaker 1>again directly from the CBO Congressional Budget Office, they show

0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:18.200
<v Speaker 1>here in twenty twenty three, we have about one hundred

0:23:18.280 --> 0:23:25.360
<v Speaker 1>percent of debt to GDP one percent ratio of GDP

0:23:25.520 --> 0:23:28.280
<v Speaker 1>wrote debt to GDP. But they're showing this on a

0:23:28.359 --> 0:23:30.680
<v Speaker 1>chart I wish I could show to you going straight up,

0:23:30.720 --> 0:23:35.240
<v Speaker 1>almost like a hockey stick. And by twenty fifty, again

0:23:35.320 --> 0:23:38.879
<v Speaker 1>the CBO projects by twenty fifty will be at two

0:23:39.320 --> 0:23:44.000
<v Speaker 1>hundred percent debt to GDP. Well, that's not sustainable. They

0:23:44.080 --> 0:23:46.240
<v Speaker 1>go on to tell us more. The Treasury goes on

0:23:46.280 --> 0:23:49.720
<v Speaker 1>to tell us they actually published in this report I'm

0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:54.240
<v Speaker 1>talking about, they titled it, well, this was an executive

0:23:54.240 --> 0:23:56.520
<v Speaker 1>coming to the fiscal year for twenty twenty one, and

0:23:56.560 --> 0:24:00.840
<v Speaker 1>they titled it quote an unsustainable fiscal path. And in

0:24:00.880 --> 0:24:04.960
<v Speaker 1>this they showed that the amount of debt held by

0:24:04.960 --> 0:24:09.720
<v Speaker 1>the public is going to go up by astronomical amounts.

0:24:09.880 --> 0:24:11.800
<v Speaker 1>Like I said, by about the year, they showed about

0:24:11.840 --> 0:24:14.040
<v Speaker 1>by the year twenty forty five, we've been two hundred percent,

0:24:14.400 --> 0:24:18.480
<v Speaker 1>but they showed by the year like twenty eighty six

0:24:18.720 --> 0:24:24.560
<v Speaker 1>hundred percent, what six hundred percent, So we are on

0:24:24.720 --> 0:24:26.760
<v Speaker 1>an unsustainable path. Let me give you a couple of

0:24:26.760 --> 0:24:29.440
<v Speaker 1>other data points then we'll move on. But what else

0:24:29.520 --> 0:24:32.919
<v Speaker 1>was in the report or what else is relevant to

0:24:33.000 --> 0:24:37.320
<v Speaker 1>the report? I should say, is that this is based

0:24:37.320 --> 0:24:39.399
<v Speaker 1>off of the debt, right, the amount of outlay. So

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:42.720
<v Speaker 1>we again they're showing seven hundred billion dollars in interest

0:24:43.040 --> 0:24:47.640
<v Speaker 1>being owed, but again rates are going up, which means

0:24:47.640 --> 0:24:50.119
<v Speaker 1>though oh more. Now, a lot of the debt that

0:24:50.160 --> 0:24:53.680
<v Speaker 1>the government has is locked in by timeline. So there's

0:24:54.160 --> 0:24:58.640
<v Speaker 1>zero to one year maturities, there's one to three year maturities,

0:24:58.680 --> 0:25:01.800
<v Speaker 1>there's five year, ten year, twenty year thirty year maturities.

0:25:02.160 --> 0:25:05.000
<v Speaker 1>So not just as the FED continues to raise rates

0:25:05.240 --> 0:25:07.639
<v Speaker 1>doesn't mean all of the rate goes up, which is

0:25:07.680 --> 0:25:10.280
<v Speaker 1>why the FED is showing a seven hundred billion dollar

0:25:10.359 --> 0:25:12.680
<v Speaker 1>amount even though I'm sorry, the Treasury is showing seven

0:25:12.720 --> 0:25:15.240
<v Speaker 1>hundred billion oh, even while the FED is raising rates.

0:25:15.280 --> 0:25:17.000
<v Speaker 1>It's because a lot of that debt is locked in.

0:25:17.200 --> 0:25:19.359
<v Speaker 1>But that's part of the problem. So what we know

0:25:19.520 --> 0:25:22.159
<v Speaker 1>is that all the US government debt, we can see

0:25:22.160 --> 0:25:24.760
<v Speaker 1>what the maturities are, and what we can see is

0:25:24.800 --> 0:25:27.520
<v Speaker 1>that fifty percent of the debt, of the thirty one

0:25:27.520 --> 0:25:31.520
<v Speaker 1>trillion of that matures in the next three years and

0:25:31.640 --> 0:25:35.000
<v Speaker 1>is going to have to be refinanced. Now the FED

0:25:35.080 --> 0:25:37.200
<v Speaker 1>is telling us they're going to raise rates and leave

0:25:37.320 --> 0:25:41.200
<v Speaker 1>them there, raise rates and leave them there. Now they're

0:25:41.200 --> 0:25:44.920
<v Speaker 1>talking about maybe get into six percent. So what does

0:25:44.920 --> 0:25:48.800
<v Speaker 1>that mean for the outstanding government debt and what should

0:25:48.840 --> 0:25:51.959
<v Speaker 1>we expect. I'm going to tell you exactly what that

0:25:52.080 --> 0:25:54.280
<v Speaker 1>looks like, and then we're going to look at some

0:25:54.359 --> 0:25:57.719
<v Speaker 1>of this economic data to really back this up, and

0:25:57.800 --> 0:26:01.280
<v Speaker 1>it is it's not good, not good now. And so

0:26:01.520 --> 0:26:04.720
<v Speaker 1>when you have these Paul Krugman's of the world painting

0:26:04.760 --> 0:26:08.439
<v Speaker 1>these rosy pictures as the article that I read to

0:26:08.480 --> 0:26:12.679
<v Speaker 1>you from stated it's criminal. If a CEO did this,

0:26:12.720 --> 0:26:14.480
<v Speaker 1>it would be criminal. And so I want you to

0:26:14.520 --> 0:26:16.479
<v Speaker 1>understand this now. The reason why it's important to understand

0:26:16.480 --> 0:26:20.120
<v Speaker 1>it is because it basically shows what's inevitable. So if

0:26:20.119 --> 0:26:21.720
<v Speaker 1>you want to know what you should be thinking about

0:26:21.760 --> 0:26:24.480
<v Speaker 1>with your business, or your retirement account or your house,

0:26:24.800 --> 0:26:26.159
<v Speaker 1>then you want to stay tuned to what I have

0:26:26.200 --> 0:26:29.240
<v Speaker 1>because it's going to show what is inevitable. If you're

0:26:29.240 --> 0:26:30.960
<v Speaker 1>just tuning in, you're listening to the Mark Moa show

0:26:31.000 --> 0:26:33.600
<v Speaker 1>talking about the decentralized revolution this week, talking about the

0:26:33.640 --> 0:26:36.240
<v Speaker 1>financial revolution that's happening. I got a lot more to

0:26:36.240 --> 0:26:38.000
<v Speaker 1>cover when I come back. Don't go away, I'll be

0:26:38.080 --> 0:26:42.199
<v Speaker 1>right back, all right, Welcome back. If you just tune in,

0:26:42.200 --> 0:26:44.600
<v Speaker 1>you're listening to the Mark Moa Show talking about, of

0:26:44.600 --> 0:26:47.040
<v Speaker 1>course each and every week, the decentralized revolution. We're talking

0:26:47.040 --> 0:26:50.800
<v Speaker 1>about right now, the financial revolution piece that's happening, and

0:26:50.840 --> 0:26:53.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm telling you what's inevitable. All right. I was setting

0:26:53.800 --> 0:26:56.399
<v Speaker 1>up the read new information from the Treasury report. If

0:26:56.440 --> 0:26:58.240
<v Speaker 1>you're missed in this, don't worry. You can go catch

0:26:58.280 --> 0:27:00.240
<v Speaker 1>it on the archives just go check out the Mark

0:27:00.320 --> 0:27:02.800
<v Speaker 1>Moss Show on your favorite podcast player, or you can

0:27:02.840 --> 0:27:05.520
<v Speaker 1>watch me and listen to me on YouTube under the

0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:08.800
<v Speaker 1>Market Disruptors YouTube channel. Check it out, and while you're

0:27:08.800 --> 0:27:11.200
<v Speaker 1>at it, follow me on social media at one Mark

0:27:11.240 --> 0:27:13.480
<v Speaker 1>Moss at that's just the number one, Mark Moss. Shoot

0:27:13.480 --> 0:27:15.600
<v Speaker 1>me a message, tell me you're listening, ask me some questions.

0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:17.960
<v Speaker 1>I'd love to engage with there. All right, so let's

0:27:18.040 --> 0:27:20.240
<v Speaker 1>keeping the treasury up at night. Remember the treasury the

0:27:20.359 --> 0:27:22.600
<v Speaker 1>US government is that of the thirty one and a

0:27:22.600 --> 0:27:25.679
<v Speaker 1>half trillion dollars of debt they owe, it's locked in

0:27:25.760 --> 0:27:29.359
<v Speaker 1>on these different maturity dates. But fifty percent of the

0:27:29.480 --> 0:27:31.720
<v Speaker 1>debt is maturing and is going to have to be

0:27:31.800 --> 0:27:36.080
<v Speaker 1>refinanced in just the next three years. And so remember

0:27:36.080 --> 0:27:40.080
<v Speaker 1>those CBO projections I was telling you where by twenty

0:27:40.119 --> 0:27:43.439
<v Speaker 1>thirty where at two trillion dollars a year? Well, and

0:27:43.680 --> 0:27:47.359
<v Speaker 1>how grossly misstated those are, because one, the income is

0:27:47.400 --> 0:27:50.399
<v Speaker 1>going to continue to go down, but also the amount

0:27:50.440 --> 0:27:51.959
<v Speaker 1>of interest expense is going to go up. And so

0:27:52.000 --> 0:27:54.360
<v Speaker 1>we can see fifty percent matures the next three years,

0:27:54.359 --> 0:27:57.760
<v Speaker 1>and it's going to be replaced at rates of wherever

0:27:57.800 --> 0:28:03.600
<v Speaker 1>we're at for five six percent. So how's that going

0:28:03.640 --> 0:28:08.080
<v Speaker 1>to work. It's going to take that seven hundred billion

0:28:08.119 --> 0:28:11.720
<v Speaker 1>dollar number and that's going to push it through the roof.

0:28:12.080 --> 0:28:14.280
<v Speaker 1>We're going to go to over a trillion dollars a

0:28:14.359 --> 0:28:20.360
<v Speaker 1>year of just interest only. That's that's where we're headed. Fun, fun, fun,

0:28:20.400 --> 0:28:23.040
<v Speaker 1>fun stuff. So that's why Paul Krugman is wrong. Now,

0:28:23.119 --> 0:28:26.359
<v Speaker 1>if your Social Security or if you're on SO security

0:28:26.440 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 1>or expecting to get so secured at one point, I

0:28:29.200 --> 0:28:31.199
<v Speaker 1>have something to tell you that you may not like,

0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:34.000
<v Speaker 1>and that's that it is set to start running a

0:28:34.040 --> 0:28:36.520
<v Speaker 1>shortfall by the end of the decade. As a matter

0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:40.600
<v Speaker 1>of fact, if the Sociecurity funds become insolvent and there's

0:28:40.600 --> 0:28:44.400
<v Speaker 1>no change to current laws, beneficiaries would see more than

0:28:44.440 --> 0:28:49.000
<v Speaker 1>a twenty percent reduction in benefits. So I'm not planning

0:28:49.000 --> 0:28:51.160
<v Speaker 1>on getting any at all by the time I retire.

0:28:51.360 --> 0:28:53.800
<v Speaker 1>And if you're on it, that's something to be paying

0:28:53.840 --> 0:28:57.080
<v Speaker 1>attention to. You might start seeing a reduction there, a drawdown,

0:28:57.120 --> 0:28:59.520
<v Speaker 1>which is going to be super important if you're depending

0:28:59.560 --> 0:29:02.840
<v Speaker 1>on that all. But again they're based in all of

0:29:02.840 --> 0:29:08.040
<v Speaker 1>this information on economic data. One the amount of revenue

0:29:08.040 --> 0:29:10.720
<v Speaker 1>they're going to collect. But Again, if the economy continues

0:29:10.760 --> 0:29:14.240
<v Speaker 1>to go downhill, then the amount of tax revenue to

0:29:14.240 --> 0:29:17.520
<v Speaker 1>collect also goes downhill, which puts the deficit even higher.

0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:22.040
<v Speaker 1>And we can see that the economy is seemingly barreling

0:29:22.200 --> 0:29:25.800
<v Speaker 1>into a recession. No matter what they want to tell

0:29:25.800 --> 0:29:30.160
<v Speaker 1>you with the data, the jobs data, the unemployment data,

0:29:30.240 --> 0:29:32.440
<v Speaker 1>it's all wrong. Everything, everything you've learned is wrong. So

0:29:32.480 --> 0:29:34.040
<v Speaker 1>we can see here if we look at some different

0:29:34.040 --> 0:29:37.000
<v Speaker 1>economic indicators, we can try to find it ourselves. There's

0:29:37.000 --> 0:29:42.040
<v Speaker 1>this conference boards Leading Economic Indicators. It's continued. It's declined

0:29:42.080 --> 0:29:46.520
<v Speaker 1>in January, dropping zero point three percent month over month,

0:29:47.320 --> 0:29:49.719
<v Speaker 1>so that's not good. We can see it's the tenth

0:29:49.880 --> 0:29:54.880
<v Speaker 1>straight monthly decline in the LI Leading Economic Indicator. It's

0:29:54.920 --> 0:29:59.840
<v Speaker 1>the longest streak of declines since Lehman, which was twenty

0:30:00.400 --> 0:30:05.000
<v Speaker 1>straight months of decline, so we're currently in the longest

0:30:05.040 --> 0:30:10.560
<v Speaker 1>streak since Layman happened. Among the leading indicators, we have

0:30:10.640 --> 0:30:16.240
<v Speaker 1>deteriorating manufacturing new orders, so manufacturers aren't ordering, so manufacturing

0:30:16.360 --> 0:30:19.160
<v Speaker 1>production is going down. Remember, wealth is not money, wealth

0:30:19.280 --> 0:30:22.120
<v Speaker 1>is goods and services, So when manufacturers aren't producing goods

0:30:22.120 --> 0:30:25.880
<v Speaker 1>and services, that's not good. Also, leading indicators are consumers,

0:30:25.920 --> 0:30:33.040
<v Speaker 1>expectations of business conditions, credit conditions, and all of that

0:30:33.080 --> 0:30:36.640
<v Speaker 1>combined more than offset the strength supposed strength that we

0:30:36.680 --> 0:30:41.760
<v Speaker 1>had in the labor markets. The Conference Board expects high inflation,

0:30:42.480 --> 0:30:47.640
<v Speaker 1>rising interest rates, and contracting consumers spending to tip the

0:30:47.720 --> 0:30:50.720
<v Speaker 1>US economy into recession in twenty twenty three. So if

0:30:50.760 --> 0:30:55.720
<v Speaker 1>that happens, tax revenues go down. It says this is

0:30:56.720 --> 0:30:59.120
<v Speaker 1>on a year of year basis, the li is down

0:30:59.280 --> 0:31:04.000
<v Speaker 1>six point zero three percent, which is close to the

0:31:04.040 --> 0:31:06.760
<v Speaker 1>biggest year over year drop since two thousand and eight.

0:31:08.680 --> 0:31:11.000
<v Speaker 1>So we're on the longest streak since we saw in

0:31:11.040 --> 0:31:13.719
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and eight. It's the we're almost to the

0:31:13.760 --> 0:31:16.280
<v Speaker 1>same size of drop that we saw in two thousand

0:31:16.280 --> 0:31:20.360
<v Speaker 1>and eight. It's not a good sign for GDP. And

0:31:20.400 --> 0:31:22.280
<v Speaker 1>if it's not a good sign for GDP, what does

0:31:22.280 --> 0:31:25.120
<v Speaker 1>that mean, that means tax revenues go down. We can

0:31:25.160 --> 0:31:28.720
<v Speaker 1>also see subprime auto loan delinquencies just had a thirteen

0:31:29.040 --> 0:31:32.240
<v Speaker 1>year high. All this money that got injected into the

0:31:32.280 --> 0:31:35.239
<v Speaker 1>system through the COVID pandemic got you know, all these

0:31:35.240 --> 0:31:37.959
<v Speaker 1>companies to expand very quickly, like Amazon started building out

0:31:37.960 --> 0:31:40.080
<v Speaker 1>all these new shipping centers, started hiring all these people.

0:31:40.280 --> 0:31:41.920
<v Speaker 1>All these people got hired on the new jobs, and

0:31:41.960 --> 0:31:44.520
<v Speaker 1>they went out and bought cars with that stimmy. But

0:31:44.600 --> 0:31:46.680
<v Speaker 1>now all the layoffs are happening, and now people can't

0:31:46.680 --> 0:31:49.120
<v Speaker 1>afford those cars. Now I've been hearing stories and reading

0:31:49.200 --> 0:31:53.080
<v Speaker 1>reading stories of all these cars at car auction lots

0:31:53.120 --> 0:31:56.480
<v Speaker 1>that have never even been registered, meaning they're brand new,

0:31:56.800 --> 0:31:58.760
<v Speaker 1>they're less than one or two years old, where people

0:31:58.760 --> 0:32:01.320
<v Speaker 1>bought them, probably on their stimmy, and then never even

0:32:01.400 --> 0:32:04.200
<v Speaker 1>got to the first registration where they had to pay

0:32:04.640 --> 0:32:08.000
<v Speaker 1>for the tags. And now we're starting to see that

0:32:08.320 --> 0:32:13.280
<v Speaker 1>the FED might start understanding this, because the problem is

0:32:13.280 --> 0:32:17.840
<v Speaker 1>is that they are hell bent on getting inflation back

0:32:17.920 --> 0:32:20.920
<v Speaker 1>down to this two percent supposedly I don't even know where. Well,

0:32:21.200 --> 0:32:23.200
<v Speaker 1>there's a story this week I saw where did two

0:32:23.200 --> 0:32:27.000
<v Speaker 1>percent come from? Supposedly New Zealand just pulled that number

0:32:27.000 --> 0:32:28.560
<v Speaker 1>out of thin air. Oh, let's go with a two

0:32:28.600 --> 0:32:32.080
<v Speaker 1>percent inflation rate, And apparently that's what stuck. But the

0:32:32.120 --> 0:32:34.800
<v Speaker 1>problem is, as the FED continues to try to bring

0:32:34.880 --> 0:32:40.240
<v Speaker 1>inflation down, they're pushing asset prices down and helm price

0:32:40.320 --> 0:32:42.600
<v Speaker 1>down to make you feel poor. But as you feel poor,

0:32:42.880 --> 0:32:44.840
<v Speaker 1>and as you have no cap gains, the government doesn't

0:32:44.880 --> 0:32:47.680
<v Speaker 1>get the funding at the same time as their spendings

0:32:47.720 --> 0:32:51.320
<v Speaker 1>going up. They're already a zombie company and solvent, which

0:32:51.400 --> 0:32:55.480
<v Speaker 1>means they're only even more insolvent. So the question is,

0:32:55.800 --> 0:32:58.360
<v Speaker 1>or the question or the question that I would ask myself,

0:32:58.400 --> 0:33:02.160
<v Speaker 1>is what does all this mean? What does all this mean? Mark?

0:33:02.400 --> 0:33:05.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, okay, you've made a case the economy is

0:33:05.840 --> 0:33:11.040
<v Speaker 1>going into recession. The Treasury itself, for its own report

0:33:11.120 --> 0:33:13.440
<v Speaker 1>says that it's insolvent and it's only be going to

0:33:13.480 --> 0:33:17.360
<v Speaker 1>come more insolvent. What does this mean. It means that

0:33:17.520 --> 0:33:21.880
<v Speaker 1>money printing is inevitable. That's what this means. So what

0:33:22.040 --> 0:33:26.080
<v Speaker 1>this means is that the federal government is insolvent. They're bankrupt.

0:33:26.520 --> 0:33:30.760
<v Speaker 1>They haven't filed for bankruptcy, but they're insolvent. They're spending

0:33:30.920 --> 0:33:34.800
<v Speaker 1>way more on just mandatory expenses than they bring in

0:33:34.800 --> 0:33:36.800
<v Speaker 1>in income, and at the same time their income is

0:33:36.840 --> 0:33:38.800
<v Speaker 1>going down, their expenses are going up. So we have

0:33:38.800 --> 0:33:40.560
<v Speaker 1>to refinance all this dead at higher rates and all

0:33:40.560 --> 0:33:45.480
<v Speaker 1>these things. So no government with a money printer will

0:33:45.520 --> 0:33:48.760
<v Speaker 1>go bankrupt. So this means they're going to print money.

0:33:48.760 --> 0:33:52.520
<v Speaker 1>So while we have all this posturing and the Fed says,

0:33:52.560 --> 0:33:54.400
<v Speaker 1>they don't, you know, they want to continue to tighten

0:33:54.440 --> 0:33:57.160
<v Speaker 1>the markets. They don't want to ease the markets. We

0:33:57.280 --> 0:34:00.560
<v Speaker 1>know what's inevitable, and I believe the markets it's inevitable,

0:34:00.560 --> 0:34:03.680
<v Speaker 1>which is why the markets aren't going down. Jerome Powell

0:34:04.120 --> 0:34:06.640
<v Speaker 1>keeps one in the markets to go down, but they don't.

0:34:08.239 --> 0:34:10.480
<v Speaker 1>I saw this article this week talking about how the

0:34:10.520 --> 0:34:13.320
<v Speaker 1>Fed minutes appear to argue against what Powe was saying

0:34:13.440 --> 0:34:16.279
<v Speaker 1>in the presser, and they wanted him to go back

0:34:16.280 --> 0:34:20.920
<v Speaker 1>and reiterate again. But Powell declined to try to talk

0:34:20.960 --> 0:34:25.399
<v Speaker 1>down financial markets, saying, we're just going to have to

0:34:25.440 --> 0:34:28.719
<v Speaker 1>see seeing Look, I told them what's going to happen.

0:34:28.880 --> 0:34:30.239
<v Speaker 1>Let's just leave it up to them. They're going to

0:34:30.280 --> 0:34:35.600
<v Speaker 1>figure this out. But the markets don't believe what the

0:34:35.640 --> 0:34:37.880
<v Speaker 1>Fed is saying. And the reason why they don't believe

0:34:37.880 --> 0:34:40.840
<v Speaker 1>it is because they know what's inevitable. They know that

0:34:40.880 --> 0:34:43.360
<v Speaker 1>the treasury is going broke and they're going to have

0:34:43.480 --> 0:34:46.319
<v Speaker 1>to print the money. No government, the money printer will

0:34:46.360 --> 0:34:49.000
<v Speaker 1>go broke. And so while we don't know exactly what's

0:34:49.000 --> 0:34:50.840
<v Speaker 1>going to happen over the next two to three months,

0:34:51.920 --> 0:34:53.600
<v Speaker 1>we do know what's going to happen over the next

0:34:53.640 --> 0:34:56.480
<v Speaker 1>two to three years. Now, what's going to happen over

0:34:56.520 --> 0:34:59.799
<v Speaker 1>the next two to three years is massive amounts of

0:35:00.040 --> 0:35:02.920
<v Speaker 1>money printing. The US dollar is going to have to

0:35:02.960 --> 0:35:06.719
<v Speaker 1>get weaker. When the US dollar gets weaker, it will

0:35:06.800 --> 0:35:11.480
<v Speaker 1>push asset prices higher. There's no other way now, Like

0:35:11.520 --> 0:35:13.320
<v Speaker 1>I said, the other way is the government goes bankrupt.

0:35:13.719 --> 0:35:16.000
<v Speaker 1>But of course, as I said, no government with the

0:35:16.040 --> 0:35:19.560
<v Speaker 1>money printer will go bankrupt, and so I think the

0:35:19.680 --> 0:35:24.399
<v Speaker 1>chance of that happening is slim to none. Now, there

0:35:24.440 --> 0:35:27.760
<v Speaker 1>are two types of defaults. Of course, there's the default

0:35:27.800 --> 0:35:31.040
<v Speaker 1>where I don't pay you, and there's the default where

0:35:31.040 --> 0:35:32.879
<v Speaker 1>I just pay you back with a bunch of made

0:35:32.960 --> 0:35:35.399
<v Speaker 1>up money that's not worth as much as what you're

0:35:35.480 --> 0:35:38.600
<v Speaker 1>actually owed. So I pay you back the million dollars

0:35:38.640 --> 0:35:40.000
<v Speaker 1>I owe you, but it only buys you half a

0:35:40.040 --> 0:35:43.600
<v Speaker 1>million dollars worth goods today. And that's exactly what's happening,

0:35:43.760 --> 0:35:45.719
<v Speaker 1>and that's where we're going. And so if you're trying

0:35:45.719 --> 0:35:51.120
<v Speaker 1>to plan what should I do with my business, my investments, etc.

0:35:51.719 --> 0:35:55.360
<v Speaker 1>If you think long term, you know it's inevitable the

0:35:55.520 --> 0:35:58.759
<v Speaker 1>money printer will burr again. If you're just tuning in

0:35:58.800 --> 0:36:00.920
<v Speaker 1>you're listening to the Markmas Show. We've been talking about

0:36:01.680 --> 0:36:05.200
<v Speaker 1>what the Treasury report said and the inevitability of money printing.

0:36:05.640 --> 0:36:08.719
<v Speaker 1>The financial revolution is here and we're witnessing it. Thanks

0:36:08.719 --> 0:36:09.480
<v Speaker 1>so much for listening.