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Speaker 1: Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: Ryan Warmley, joined by Andrew Rickson. We are talking divisional

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Speaker 1: round predictions. It is hard to believe, Ericson, that we

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Speaker 1: only have seven games left in the twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: to twenty six NFL season. It's wild how quick it goes.

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Speaker 1: The playoffs always go extra fastest because like you hear

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Speaker 1: it half to teams every time and it just goes

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Speaker 1: very quickly. But we are here into what is largely

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Speaker 1: considered the best weekend of the of the football calendar.

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Speaker 1: I think it might be partial to Championship Game Sunday.

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Speaker 1: I really enjoy that doubleheader every year, but as a

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Speaker 1: whole weekend, this is obviously just about as good as

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Speaker 1: it gets. What do you think about the slate we

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Speaker 1: have in front of us here?

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Speaker 2: I'm afraid that it's not going to be living up

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Speaker 2: to what happened last week, where how wild Card weekend

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Speaker 2: was just phenomenal, just absolutely electric. So many fourth quarter

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Speaker 2: changes where it looked like this underdog was gonna win

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Speaker 2: and they end up winning, but they look that they

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Speaker 2: were gonna lose, and Jordan Love posts like an amazing

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Speaker 2: stat line and the lose anyway, just absolutely bonkers. So

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Speaker 2: I'm afraid that it's just not gonna live up to

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Speaker 2: last weekend, which means it's going to be somewhat disappointing,

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Speaker 2: but still when the Patriots are on. I will be

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Speaker 2: in attendance at Gellette Stadium this week, so I will

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Speaker 2: be back in the home team loud and it should

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Speaker 2: be a lot of fun, hoping it's a lot of

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Speaker 2: fun where the Patriots win.

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Speaker 3: Funny you mentioned that Jordan Love game.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously that was, like, you know, maybe the

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Speaker 1: game of the of the weekend, which was a wild weekend,

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Speaker 1: and it's a good example of how my predictions in

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Speaker 1: the wild card round went. I said we were getting

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Speaker 1: this Jordan Love offensive explosion. All my pro I had

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Speaker 1: multiple props on Jordan Love. I called this Packers big

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Speaker 1: scoring game, but I said that they would win.

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Speaker 3: In the end.

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Speaker 1: I almost wanted to give myself a half point on

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Speaker 1: it because I got half the prediction right.

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Speaker 3: But I gave myself the loss.

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Speaker 1: No need to worry about it because because the Packers

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Speaker 1: got the loss. But that was very reflective of how

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Speaker 1: my predictions went. I think I went three and three

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Speaker 1: on the official predictions. I think I went like five

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Speaker 1: and one on the prop bets, Like it was just

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Speaker 1: I was I was getting the side angles correct that

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Speaker 1: you would actually put money on, including the Puka first touchdown,

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Speaker 1: which was my best bet of the weekend, not my

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Speaker 1: pre weekend best bet, but it was my most successful

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Speaker 1: bet of the weekend plus five fifty, So that one

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Speaker 1: I was really happy with.

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Speaker 3: But the predictions themselves, sadly just three and three.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's one of those situations where you could try

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Speaker 2: to go up, you know, you place a bet, it's like, hey,

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Speaker 2: this one didn't quite hit, but spiritually it hit, So

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Speaker 2: can I get paid out pretty pretty please? And they

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Speaker 2: will just slowly turn away from you and me. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: the Pooka call shout out to you first touchdowns, that's

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Speaker 2: something I haven't dabbled in as much this year. I

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Speaker 2: know that my first couple of years I was doing

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Speaker 2: that a lot, and it's a ton of fun. It's

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Speaker 2: one of those like ultimate adrenaline rushes where you don't

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Speaker 2: have to wait very long for a hit, except in

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Speaker 2: the instances where you get like a Steelers Texans game

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Speaker 2: where there are no touchdowns and it's just kind of

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Speaker 2: like the wild Wild West of oh is the first

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Speaker 2: touchdout also going to be the last touchdown, So if

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Speaker 2: it doesn't hit right away in one of the first drives,

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Speaker 2: it can be kind of a sweat as well. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: Poka going off me, he could have had multiple touchdowns

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Speaker 2: and like again, the Panthers don't cover that game if

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Speaker 2: he doesn't drop that pass. Right. So, even though my

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Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers plus ten and a half was the lock

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Speaker 2: of all locks, there was a scenario where it was

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Speaker 2: not the lock of all locks and they did actually

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Speaker 2: end up getting blown out in one part of the universe.

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Speaker 1: Well that's that's another one where I lost the prediction.

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Speaker 1: But I hit the first touchdown score. I mean, like

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Speaker 1: I just I just couldn't get him both right. You

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Speaker 1: went four and two in this round, so we went

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Speaker 1: to combined seven and five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're looking at the green back in the green,

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Speaker 2: which is good.

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Speaker 3: Not overall, but in the green for a week.

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Speaker 1: We had enough of a down stretching to making our

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Speaker 1: way the end of the we did. We did great

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Speaker 1: to start end of the regular season, not so strong.

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Speaker 1: Now a decent start to the playoffs. Here, we'll see

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Speaker 1: how we do this week, and by the way, for

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Speaker 1: the next two weeks, we're gonna have multiple predictions on

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Speaker 1: those games because obviously next week there's only two games,

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Speaker 1: and then you know, the Super Bowl only one game,

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Speaker 1: So we will still have this version of the show.

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Speaker 1: It'll just be more predictions on the same games as

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Speaker 1: opposed to one each for each game, which is what

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Speaker 1: we are doing today, starting off with the Saturday afternoon

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Speaker 1: game Bills at Broncos.

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Speaker 3: Now, the Bills started off as favorites. They are.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting they are favorites on some books and underdogs

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Speaker 1: on others. We of course care most about hard Rock Bet.

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Speaker 1: They are underdogs in hard Rock Bet is Bills plus

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Speaker 1: one at that book. They are, like I said, favored elsewhere.

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Speaker 1: So if you really like the idea of getting the

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Speaker 1: Broncos as an underdog, I'm not going to encourage you

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Speaker 1: to go bet elsewhere, but you can find that elsewhere. Again,

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Speaker 1: we are only going to be sharing the hard Rock

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Speaker 1: Bet line, which is Bills plus one, so they are

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Speaker 1: the underdog here. Ericson, I'll start with you, what's your

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Speaker 1: prediction for Bills at Broncos.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Shout out to hard Rock Bet for having the

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Speaker 2: best number on the best team in this game, the

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Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills. So I would go straight for the money

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Speaker 2: line here, not mess around with these plus one minus

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Speaker 2: one and a half. Wherever you're shopping, if you had

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Speaker 2: hard rock bet, you want to get the Bills because

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Speaker 2: Bills on the money line, that is one of the

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Speaker 2: best values that you can get. And ultimately, I think

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Speaker 2: that the Bills are going to win this game same

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Speaker 2: way they won last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And

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Speaker 2: I was on the Jaguars side last week. But in hindsight,

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Speaker 2: I don't look at that as Wow, what a disasterisk

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Speaker 2: call it. It was a close game, like it was

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Speaker 2: a tight game, went down to the final drive. Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: obviously did not end up getting the win, and Buffalo

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Speaker 2: willed its way to victory with Josh Allen and the

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Speaker 2: fact they were able to do it without James Cook

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Speaker 2: really having a big rushing game. If you look at

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Speaker 2: some of the splits, Buffalo has won the majority of

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Speaker 2: their games when James Cook has gone off. They're nine

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Speaker 2: to zh straight up when they rushed for at least

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty rushing yards, just three and I

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Speaker 2: believe four and five when they've been under one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty rushing yards, but that didn't stop them from

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Speaker 2: winning last week against Jacksonville. So I think that the

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Speaker 2: anyone backing Buffalo And this was kind of the same

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Speaker 2: analysis last week with those that wanted to root for

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Speaker 2: the Buffalo side, it's just okay, well they have Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen and he's the best quarterback playing in this game.

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Speaker 2: And it seems like very rudimentary like analysis, but it

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Speaker 2: works right. If he is playing and he's healthy, then

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Speaker 2: you know he can stack up against any other quarterback

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Speaker 2: in the NFL and any other team in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: And I think it's really interesting when you look at

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Speaker 2: who Josh Allen has lost to in the postseason. He

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Speaker 2: lost to Deshaun Watson and this was his rookie year,

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Speaker 2: so very very young quarterback at the time playing in

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Speaker 2: a road playoff game. Deshaan Watson was the better quarterback

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Speaker 2: at that time. Patrick Mahomes he's lost to multiple times

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Speaker 2: in the playoffs, and Joe Burrow. That's it. So basically,

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Speaker 2: unless there was a scenario where there was a quarterback

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Speaker 2: in the the same tier as Josh Allen, he doesn't

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Speaker 2: lose these playoff games. And I kind of wish I

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Speaker 2: took more of that into consideration last week. I don't

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Speaker 2: think that think, but lieving that the Jaguars were a

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Speaker 2: better overall team was the wrong take because again it

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Speaker 2: was a close game. But now in a similar spot, Okay,

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Speaker 2: on the road against the Denver Broncos. Great defense for Denver,

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Speaker 2: but who's a better quarterback, Bonix or Josh Allen? Like,

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Speaker 2: who do I have more faith than it's going to

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Speaker 2: have that second half comeback? Both of these teams have

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Speaker 2: been very, very good in the second halves of games,

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Speaker 2: a lot of big comebacks. But I look at Denver

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Speaker 2: and look at how they've played in close games this year.

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Speaker 2: They're eleven and two in close games, so they've definitely

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Speaker 2: been on the right side of luck when it comes

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Speaker 2: to these one score contests, and I just think against

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Speaker 2: a gamer like Josh Allen, maybe their luck runs out

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Speaker 2: a little bit here. So I like the Bills, who,

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Speaker 2: even though they're not underdogs everywhere across sports books, they

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Speaker 2: feel like the underdogs. They feel like the team that

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Speaker 2: people are writing off. They can't finish it. They don't

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Speaker 2: have any wide receivers, the defense is overrated, they can't

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Speaker 2: stop the run, YadA, YadA, YadA, And yet you look up, Oh,

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Speaker 2: what do you know? The Bills win again. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go with the Buffalo Bills winning here. And although

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Speaker 2: this doesn't really correlate with my prop because I'm still

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Speaker 2: betting against the Bills run defense being any good. R J.

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Speaker 2: Harvey's gonna go over forty nine and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 2: I think this number is just way too low for

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Speaker 2: what we've seen from this Bill's run defense. Week seventeen,

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Speaker 2: Harvey fourteen carries for forty three yards, but he had

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Speaker 2: a fifty percent success rate, and the Broncos rushing successor

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Speaker 2: in that Week seventeen game fifty six point three percent.

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Speaker 2: That was their second highest in a game this season,

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Speaker 2: and He's got at least fourteen carries in four of

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Speaker 2: his last five games. Harvey's struggled in some of the

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Speaker 2: tougher matchups he's had on Paper Chargers Chiefs, but in

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Speaker 2: softer spots like against the Raiders Green Bay Packers, He's

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Speaker 2: gone over fifty rushing yards. He also average seven yards

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Speaker 2: per carry against the Aforemenchin Jaguars, who are one of

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Speaker 2: the best run defense, if not the best run defense

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Speaker 2: in the NFL Buffalo Bills. Again, we know they're not

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Speaker 2: a good run defense. Fifth most rushing yards allowed per

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Speaker 2: game this season. So that's my take on Bill's Broncos.

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Speaker 1: We are going against each other on this. I do

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Speaker 1: think Denver wins. You know, I was the only one

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Speaker 1: that I recall maybe I'm misremembering, but on our shows,

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Speaker 1: I was the only one last February who was picking

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Speaker 1: the Eagles because I was like, I get that it's

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Speaker 1: really scary to go against the best player in this game,

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Speaker 1: which is Mahomes.

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Speaker 3: But you know, but I just think the Eagles are

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Speaker 3: the better team.

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Speaker 1: I kind of feel that way about this, not as strongly,

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Speaker 1: but I'm like, I get that it's scary to go

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Speaker 1: against Josh Allen, who I think is going to be

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Speaker 1: the best player on the field. That's in my prediction.

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Speaker 1: But I just think the Broncos are the better team.

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's gonna be some kind of blowout

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Speaker 1: of the Broncos, like you know the Eagles had in

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. But but I just think the Broncos

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Speaker 1: are the better of overall team. You mentioned, you know,

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen that he's only lost to these great quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: before you know, Deshaun Watson before he went off the

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Speaker 1: deep end, or at least before we knew he was

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Speaker 1: off the deep end.

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Speaker 3: But this is the.

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Speaker 1: Worst Bills team, this worst supporting cast Josh has had

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Speaker 1: too and I think that matters, And like I think,

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Speaker 1: I think it was a good process to be picking

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Speaker 1: the Jags last week. It was just that it was

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Speaker 1: you couldn't overcome Josh Allen. But I still like believe

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Speaker 1: in that process of like this is the better team

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Speaker 1: and the Bills are, like I know everybody's talking about,

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Speaker 1: you know, if Allen doesn't make the Super Bowl, it's

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Speaker 1: what an indictment on him because there's no Ma Homes

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Speaker 1: or Lamar Burrow in the AFC playoffs this year. But like,

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Speaker 1: this is still not that good of a team. It's

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're getting maybe little bit healthier. They've opened

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Speaker 1: up the practice windows for some of these players. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if those guys are actually gonna be on

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Speaker 1: the field for this game or not. The Broncos are better.

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Speaker 1: This game's in Denver, and that is an actual advantage

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Speaker 1: like that not every team has a home field advantage.

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Speaker 1: Can I live out here like Denver? In January is

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Speaker 1: tough to go out and play. Josh Allen's a superhero,

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Speaker 1: but he's also getting really banged up. Like we keep

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Speaker 1: seeing him go to the blue Tent. You know, he

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Speaker 1: went there twice against the Jags. The Broncos are really physical.

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Speaker 1: It's a tough place to play. It's gonna be cold,

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Speaker 1: like I would not be surprised to see. I don't

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Speaker 1: think this defense is as good as the Texans defense,

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Speaker 1: but I think the Broncos have a pretty good case

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Speaker 1: as the second best defense in football, maybe third behind

245
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Speaker 1: Seattle at worst, one of the clear Tier one defenses

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Speaker 1: in the league this season. That's really hard when you're

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Speaker 1: going on the road. This team is rested. Also, you know,

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Speaker 1: Sean Payton has been there before. I know, like Alan

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Speaker 1: and McDermott have played in playoff games before, but you

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Speaker 1: know Peyton's done it at a really high level. I

251
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Speaker 1: think the Broncos are probably really mad after last year's playoffs.

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Speaker 3: They went one and done.

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Speaker 1: Not as the one seed, but they went one and

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Speaker 1: done against the Bills and got blown out. They lost

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Speaker 1: thirty one to seven in that game last year. I

256
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Speaker 1: think they're going to come in angry. You know, Bo

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Speaker 1: Nicks is a He's not amazing, but he's a better

258
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Speaker 1: quarterback than he was as a rookie, right like this

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Speaker 1: running game has Archie Harvey. Now it didn't last year

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Speaker 1: against a really bad rushing defense. And I think that Alan,

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Speaker 1: despite the Bills having a good offensive line, is going

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Speaker 1: to get beat up in this game from a Broncos

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Speaker 1: team that you know sacks the co opposing quarterback as

264
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Speaker 1: well as anybody. And I think it's going to feel

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Speaker 1: like Alan is going to keep them within you know,

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Speaker 1: striking range throughout this game because he's the best player

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Speaker 1: in the field.

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Speaker 3: But I think the Broncos are going to feel.

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Speaker 1: Like they're in control most of the game, even if

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Speaker 1: it's a close score, and I think they're ultimately going

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Speaker 1: to win despite Allen being the best player in the field.

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Speaker 1: And kind of similar to you, my prop maybe doesn't

273
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Speaker 1: necessarily go along with my pick. I have Josh Allen

274
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Speaker 1: over one and a half passing touchdowns. I had him

275
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Speaker 1: under last week because I predicted that the quarterbacks were

276
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Speaker 1: kind of going to largely struggle in that game, at

277
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Speaker 1: least statistically, and that you know, Alan was just likely

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Speaker 1: to run it in as opposed to throw it. I

279
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Speaker 1: think everybody's looking at like, hey, this this Broncos defense

280
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Speaker 1: is really good, and this game's in Denver and all

281
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Speaker 1: this stuff I just said, and maybe going to fade

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen passing, And I want to kind of go

283
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Speaker 1: against that because I do think Allen is going to

284
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Speaker 1: be the best player on the field. I just don't

285
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Speaker 1: think it's going to matter because I think, you know,

286
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Speaker 1: nine of the next ten best players are on the

287
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Speaker 1: Denver side, and again they're rested in Denver.

288
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Speaker 2: Two follow ups number one to your touchdown call. With

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen throwing for one and a half passing touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: I think Kean Coleman might score touchdown in this game. Yeah,

291
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Speaker 2: Like the coaching staff is so much like he's got

292
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Speaker 2: to step up, and you just look at all the

293
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Speaker 2: receivers that just got hurt. Kyle Shavers played the second

294
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Speaker 2: half of last week's game with the torn ACL. Gave

295
00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,839
Speaker 2: Davis he tore his ACL. They just signed Christian Wilkerson

296
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Speaker 2: to the active roster from the practice squad. Brandon Cooks like,

297
00:12:58,160 --> 00:12:59,800
Speaker 2: they need someone to step up, and we saw young

298
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Speaker 2: call earlier this year. Right, he did step up in

299
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Speaker 2: that one game against the Ravens and was like, oh,

300
00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:05,839
Speaker 2: is he gonna break out his year two? And then

301
00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,439
Speaker 2: like that could have been farther from the case because

302
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Speaker 2: he had just so many off the field issues, maturity issues.

303
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Speaker 2: But Buffalo needs him right now. So if if Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen and the Bills are going to have this upset

305
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Speaker 2: or they're going to win this game, I think ke

306
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Speaker 2: On Coleman has to do something. And although again not

307
00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,680
Speaker 2: a separator by any means, but you're not getting separation

308
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,600
Speaker 2: against Patrick Tertan and these secondary guys in the Broncos anyway.

309
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Speaker 2: So maybe this is where his contested catch the ability

310
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Speaker 2: can actually show up. And it's worth noting when these

311
00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,600
Speaker 2: teams played each other last year, Kean Coleman didn't catch

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00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:36,600
Speaker 2: a touchdown, but he did catch two point conversion, so

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Speaker 2: they do kind of have that in the bat. Okay,

314
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Speaker 2: we can use him in the red zone as a weapon,

315
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Speaker 2: especially with the Broncos probably putting a lot of their

316
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Speaker 2: defensive secondary and attention on the tight ends like Dalton

317
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Speaker 2: kin Kid and Dawson Knox, because that's obviously Josh Allen

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Speaker 2: has leaned on. And then my other follow up for you,

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Speaker 2: and I want to, you know, feel how you're about

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Speaker 2: this particular matchup. So do you feel better about Okay,

321
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Speaker 2: I'm up as in the Broncos, the team I'm backing,

322
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Speaker 2: or up by four, but Josh Allen has the ball

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Speaker 2: at the end of the game. Is that the scenario

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Speaker 2: you want to be in? Or do you want to

325
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Speaker 2: be down by four and you have bon Nicks has

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00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:11,720
Speaker 2: to drive and win the game? Which situation do you

327
00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:14,400
Speaker 2: want to be in? As someone that's backing the Broncos.

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Speaker 3: I'd rather be down. I don't want Josh Allen to

329
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Speaker 3: touch the ball if I can.

330
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Speaker 2: So you'd rather be down with Bonix having to Will's

331
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Speaker 2: way to victory for your team?

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Speaker 1: Yes, because bo Nicks in the fourth quarter when it's

333
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,120
Speaker 1: trying to seem to victory is a lot different than

334
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:28,920
Speaker 1: bon Nicks in the first half, at least.

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Speaker 3: The way it's worked out this season. No, no, no, no.

336
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Speaker 2: And then that's why again I asked the kind of

337
00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:33,680
Speaker 2: like tongue in chee because I was like, oh, I'm

338
00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:35,440
Speaker 2: going to put him in a tough spot here, But

339
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Speaker 2: I think that from your perspective, that's probably the right

340
00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:39,760
Speaker 2: way to take it, because bon Nicks, again, to his credit,

341
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,040
Speaker 2: has been lights out in the second half of games.

342
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Speaker 2: We'll see how long that that lasts. But definitely someone

343
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Speaker 2: that has been clutch in a lot of big spots

344
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Speaker 2: this year.

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Speaker 1: I will say too, there's one of these picks that

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Speaker 1: I feel amazingly good about. In one of the games

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Speaker 1: on this slate, the rest I actually did kind of

348
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Speaker 1: go back and forth with, So I mean that makes

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Speaker 1: it a really exc slate to me that I find

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Speaker 1: it tricky to predict some of these games. Only one

351
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Speaker 1: of the four was I like automatic, took took no

352
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Speaker 1: time to think about it.

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Speaker 3: I wrote down my prediction right away.

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Speaker 1: The other three I really did kind of toss and

355
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:13,480
Speaker 1: turn with a bit so the and this is not

356
00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:16,480
Speaker 1: the one that I knew right away, So you know,

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Speaker 1: if it goes the other way, I won't be totally surprised,

358
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:21,960
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna think the broncos here. We have got

359
00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:24,320
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360
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365
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00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,560
Speaker 1: Ericson let's go to forty nine Ers at Seahawks. This

367
00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,240
Speaker 1: is the Saturday night game. Also, by the way, this

368
00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:49,280
Speaker 1: was like clearly the correct layout of these games, knowing

369
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Speaker 1: that they want to put the one seeds on Saturday,

370
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:55,200
Speaker 1: like Bill's Broncos afternoon, Seahawks forty nine Ers night, and

371
00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,040
Speaker 1: then you know Texas Patriots early in the day Sunday

372
00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 1: late game rant like this was the correct way to

373
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:02,880
Speaker 1: schedule out this late. I just want to give thefl

374
00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:06,040
Speaker 1: credit for that. Niners they were plus seven and a

375
00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,160
Speaker 1: half last time. I look, let's see, okay, that's down

376
00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 1: to seven, so Niners are not plus seven here in

377
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,840
Speaker 1: Seattle on hard rock bet ericson what's your prediction?

378
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 2: I will say, though, on the schedule analysis that you

379
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,800
Speaker 2: gave out, don't tell that to either the forty nine

380
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,280
Speaker 2: Ers or the Buffalo Bills because they're both playing on

381
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,040
Speaker 2: a short week against teams coming off a bye week.

382
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Speaker 1: But they always do that. The one seeds always play Saturday.

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00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:31,960
Speaker 1: It feels like because they're like it's already been a

384
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Speaker 1: full week off, like they get them going early I

385
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Speaker 1: guess as far as I recall.

386
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Speaker 2: I guess the way they look at it as well.

387
00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 2: I mean, they're already out of rest disadvantage anyway, so

388
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 2: what's another day like really gonna do. And then you

389
00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,520
Speaker 2: look at like Kyle Shanahan being like, dude, we just

390
00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:46,560
Speaker 2: put like two more guys on injury reserve. We couldn't

391
00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 2: get an extra day, Like no, no, no, you can't.

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Speaker 1: It's strictly me saying it's the right schedule from knowing

393
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,080
Speaker 1: the way the NFL wants to do it, maybe not

394
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,200
Speaker 1: necessarily from the competitive advantage now.

395
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:58,320
Speaker 2: Again, but they don't care about that. That's all about

396
00:16:58,320 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 2: who's gonna get the most views.

397
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Speaker 1: But I think Texans had to play on Sunday because

398
00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:04,240
Speaker 1: they played Monday, right if you want to think about

399
00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,480
Speaker 1: the rest stuff. So like I guess you could switch

400
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,639
Speaker 1: you know, Rams Bears with Seahawks Niners, but then you

401
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 1: know the Bills are still the one getting this advantage.

402
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,199
Speaker 2: So yeah, nobody Again at the end of the day,

403
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:16,720
Speaker 2: I know him is someone's gonna be fine.

404
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 1: A reason to be if you want the rest advantage

405
00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,440
Speaker 1: win your conference, right, that's.

406
00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:25,919
Speaker 2: Exactly when your schedule. So for me, I like the

407
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,399
Speaker 2: Seahawks a lot in this spot. We just kind of

408
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:29,880
Speaker 2: talked about it a little bit here with the rest

409
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,919
Speaker 2: advantage rest disadvantaged. If there's any team that could use arrest,

410
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 2: it's the San Francisco forty nine Ers. And going back

411
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,359
Speaker 2: to that Week eighteen matchup again, these teams played just

412
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,120
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago, and in that matchup, I mean,

413
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,960
Speaker 2: Seattle dominated the forty nine Ers. So despite the fact

414
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,040
Speaker 2: that the score was thirteen to three, anybody that watched

415
00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,200
Speaker 2: that game, four Niners were lucky to lose by only

416
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,200
Speaker 2: ten points despite being the home team. So this is

417
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:58,280
Speaker 2: our NFL next Gen stats. Four Niners offense generated negative

418
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,680
Speaker 2: zero point four to six expected points added for playing

419
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,399
Speaker 2: Week eighteen against the Seahawks, their lowest mark of the season.

420
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,000
Speaker 2: They posted just a forty point five percent success rate,

421
00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 2: the third lowest mark of the year. McCaffrey limited just

422
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,600
Speaker 2: twenty three yards on eight carries twenty five percent success rate,

423
00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,960
Speaker 2: lowest second of the season, and he failed to force

424
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,160
Speaker 2: a mistackle on a rushing attempt for the first time

425
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,399
Speaker 2: in a game since Week twelve of twenty twenty two

426
00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:23,840
Speaker 2: minimum of eight carries. So now Trent Williams didn't replay

427
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:25,680
Speaker 2: in that game, so that is kind of one factor.

428
00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,200
Speaker 2: But who are they not going to have is another

429
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 2: really big part of their offense, and that's George Kittle.

430
00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:32,119
Speaker 2: And this I'm actually gonna kind of do this a

431
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 2: little bit reverse. So my prediction is the Seahawks are

432
00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:36,240
Speaker 2: gonna win a cover. But I do want to hittle

433
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,200
Speaker 2: my proper because I already just talked about Christan McCaffrey

434
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,919
Speaker 2: a little bit. So McCaffrey, I think he's gonna finish

435
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 2: under fifty seven and a half rushing yards. That is

436
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:45,879
Speaker 2: where his rushing prop was the last time I checked.

437
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 2: And that's because George Kittle. We talk about him a

438
00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,280
Speaker 2: ton as a receiver, especially for fantasy football purposes, but

439
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,160
Speaker 2: in real life football, you guys watch George Kittle play.

440
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 2: He is one of the best run blockers among the

441
00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,200
Speaker 2: tight ends. And if you look at what happened to

442
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,919
Speaker 2: CMC during the beginning of the season without Kittle, his

443
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:07,199
Speaker 2: rushing yardage was terrible. The efficiency was not there. He

444
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:09,920
Speaker 2: has gone under his rushing arts prop up fifty seven

445
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 2: and a half rushing yards and six of his last

446
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,960
Speaker 2: seven games without George Kittle in the lineup. The only

447
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 2: time that he went over this number this year without

448
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 2: George Kittle was actually Week seventeen, and that was against

449
00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 2: Chicago Bears in that crazy shootout game where I mean

450
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,440
Speaker 2: the Bears have like no linebackers left, so that I

451
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 2: think was very more matchup specific. You look at Seattle's

452
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 2: defense's nowhere near the Chicago Bears even. I mean, this

453
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 2: is an elite defense that already shut down CMC just

454
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,400
Speaker 2: two weeks ago. The forty nine Ers are front runners.

455
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 2: They play so much better ahead than playing from behind.

456
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:41,240
Speaker 2: They're not a team that's built to play from behind.

457
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 2: Because the reason why Kyles Shannon is so bad as

458
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,959
Speaker 2: an underdog versus as a favorite Christian McCaffrey when he's

459
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 2: been an underdog with the forty nine Ers seven to

460
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:50,919
Speaker 2: zero towards the under on his rushing yards as an

461
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:52,639
Speaker 2: underdog the last two seasons. And if you're kind of

462
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,400
Speaker 2: interested in how I'm kind of generating these filters and splits,

463
00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:58,200
Speaker 2: it's part of the Betting pros app the BP prop

464
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 2: at chiet sheet. The analyzer filter by is my team favorite?

465
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 2: Is my team an underdog who's playing in this game.

466
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 2: So it's a really cool way to kind of look

467
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 2: at splits when certain players are in and out in

468
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 2: certain situations of a team, because it's easy to look

469
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 2: up and be like, oh, the last three weeks they've

470
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 2: done this, this, this, But if the upcoming matchup isn't

471
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,639
Speaker 2: similar to those past matchups, then I don't think it

472
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 2: really carries as much weight. Whereas, Okay, when the forty

473
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,880
Speaker 2: nine ers are not favored, okay, negative game script, you're

474
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,560
Speaker 2: not gonna see as much CMC rushing effectively. What's interesting, too,

475
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 2: is in someone mentioned this on X when I posted

476
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 2: the CMC rushing yardage prop. They asked, oh, well, what

477
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,880
Speaker 2: about the receiving. Well, it's like the total opposite, right,

478
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 2: It's like over over over over over. So I would

479
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 2: expect Fortinitars playing with a negative game script. I think

480
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 2: that the Seahawks kind of smashier. And I was talking

481
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 2: to Fits about it in Slack and he was like, ericson,

482
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,919
Speaker 2: why aren't you higher on the Seahawks. We put in

483
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 2: the projections for the spreads, the totals for betting post

484
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 2: to kind of spit out, and I mean he was

485
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 2: looking at he would lay nine or ten points with

486
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 2: the Seattle Seahawks and as I thought about it, aren't,

487
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,880
Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, I mean the Ford NAR's defense is

488
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 2: absolutely terrible. Kill is such an integral part of their offense.

489
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 2: How he affects cmc rested in for the Seattle and

490
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 2: if you look at Sam Darnold. So this is from

491
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 2: Matt Parol actually mentioned this on the Betting Pro Show

492
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 2: with fits Donald thirteen and oh straight up ten and

493
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 2: three against the spread as a six point plus favorite.

494
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 2: So when the market is really believing in Sam Donald,

495
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 2: they're gonna kill this team, they do so, I like

496
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 2: back in the Seahawks here laying the points. I thought

497
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 2: the Ford Nites were gonna getlown out last week, and

498
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,400
Speaker 2: the minute that Lane Johnson got ruled out, I immediately

499
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 2: knew that was not gonna happen. I don't think that

500
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 2: they do it two weeks in a row. I think

501
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 2: eventually all these injuris are going to catch up with them.

502
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 2: And I think against Seattle, who's already dominated them this season,

503
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,239
Speaker 2: this is not the Eagles offense that has looked so

504
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 2: inept at times. I think the Ford and Irish defense

505
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 2: gets exposed. I think that Seattle just rolls. So give

506
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 2: me the Seahawks against the spread.

507
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 1: This was one of the tougher ones for me to pick.

508
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,119
Speaker 1: I do not feel as strongly as you. I am

509
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 1: going with the Niners not to win, but to cover

510
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 1: where and we're gonna we're gonna leave that seven and

511
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: a half line because that's what we both made our

512
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: picks at. Even though it's moved, but we both submitted

513
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 1: when it was seven and a half. I kind of

514
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 1: see this as a close defensive game. It's much less

515
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 1: about thinking that the Niners offense is gonna look different

516
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 1: against this defense the second time around. I mean, like

517
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 1: Mike McDonald has been really good against this Shanahan system

518
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,160
Speaker 1: even before getting to Seattle. That was a big reason

519
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 1: why the Seahawks wanted to hire him, because the Ravens

520
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 1: defense was excellent against this like NFL leading offensive scheme

521
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 1: when he was in Baltimore, and that like really carried

522
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,360
Speaker 1: a lot of weight with them. So you know, being

523
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 1: in the same division as shanahana McVay. So like I

524
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,439
Speaker 1: I do believe that the Seahawks are going to do

525
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 1: a good job against this offense, especially with Kittle out,

526
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,880
Speaker 1: Like that's just like the cherry on top of expecting

527
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: the Niners offense to struggle, But I don't know that

528
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,880
Speaker 1: I'm really buying into the Seahawks offense being very good

529
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 1: as as a Raven sandwich.

530
00:22:58,200 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 3: Everybody knows.

531
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 1: I've been paying very close to attention to a lot

532
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: of these head coach candidates that the Ravens have interviewed.

533
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 1: One that they have interviewed is Clint Kubiak, One that

534
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: they have requested to interview is Robert Sala. So, like, obviously,

535
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 1: like I watched the NFL, I've been paying attention to

536
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 1: these guys already, but I've been kind of like looking

537
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: extra close at them just in thinking about them as

538
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 1: possibilities for the Ravens. And the more I look the

539
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: more the less impressed I come away from Clint Kubiak,

540
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 1: and the more impressed I come away.

541
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 3: From Robert Sala.

542
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 1: And I wonder if this is a game where coaching

543
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: is kind of enough to keep it close these are

544
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 1: This is the third time these two have faced each

545
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 1: other this season. You know, it's you know, obviously divisional rivalry.

546
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 1: These two teams know each other extremely well. It's a

547
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 1: big number over a touchdown for a divisional round game

548
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 1: is pretty sizable.

549
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 3: And then I know you mentioned that.

550
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: Darnald has done better, you know when he is favorite

551
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: of at least this much as you mentioned that Peroult mentioned,

552
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 1: But I am just like not wired to really trust Darnald,

553
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: especially when I think the coaching advantages on the other

554
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 1: side of the ball. The Niners are super banged up right, like,

555
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 1: this is not the ideal form of San Francisco's defense.

556
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: But I don't need them to win. I just need

557
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 1: him to cover. They could lose by a touchdown and

558
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 1: still come away correct in this prediction.

559
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 3: For me, I think this is gonna be a low

560
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 3: scoring game.

561
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: I couldn't quite get to the point of picking the

562
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 1: under on forty five and a half, although I do

563
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 1: definitely lean towards the under in this one. The other

564
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 1: thing to ericson and this is maybe more gut feel

565
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 1: than it is driven by bio logic and analysis. I

566
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: don't feel like both one seeds are gonna come out

567
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: and smash, and not that I have the Broncos smashing,

568
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: but I do have them winning their game. So I

569
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: kind of wanted to go I kind of wanted to

570
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 1: fade at least against the spread one of these teams,

571
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: and I felt like it was easier to do that

572
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 1: with the Seahawks, given the quarterback that I'm fading, and

573
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 1: given the large line and the trust I have in

574
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: the coaching staff for San Francisco. As a general rule,

575
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 1: so my prop is the under. Like I said, I

576
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 1: couldn't quite get there for the prediction itself. The official

577
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 1: prediction is that the Niners are going to cover seven

578
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 1: and a half in Seattle.

579
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 2: I think that the under is the sharp way to

580
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 2: play it. You look at the last four times these

581
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 2: teams have played McDonald versus Shanahan again, quarterbacks aside. Seahawks

582
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,479
Speaker 2: is a little bit different defensively this year than compared

583
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 2: to last season, especially early on the year with McDonald

584
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: know his system sometimes takes time for the defensive players

585
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 2: to really understand everything and how it works. But the

586
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 2: last three games have all been unders and no game

587
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,880
Speaker 2: has exceeded thirty seven points. So you're taking out expulsive

588
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 2: playmakers like a George Kittle out of this offense. Jake

589
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 2: Tungus fun guy. But when you eliminate such a big

590
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,920
Speaker 2: play threat like Kittle, I think that leans in towards

591
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,959
Speaker 2: the under here. So I would agree with you that

592
00:25:57,960 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 2: that's how I would play it as well if I

593
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 2: was looking looking at the total, especially with that at

594
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: forty four and a half forty five and a half points.

595
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 2: It's not like one of these things like I never

596
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 2: want to bet unders mind it's like thirty eight and

597
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: a half where you're not getting a lot of value.

598
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:10,719
Speaker 1: One.

599
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: I think there was value in the under there, so

600
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 2: I would agree with you there on the total play.

601
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 3: I almost I'm not going to do it because you know,

602
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 3: I made my decision.

603
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 1: I'm going to I made my bet. I'm gonna lie

604
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: in it, but I almost want to switch. I almost

605
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: want to make my my like prop sort of side pick.

606
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 1: It's not a prop, but like just kind of picking

607
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers plus seven and a half and

608
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: my official prediction under.

609
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 3: Because you can do that through you can.

610
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,679
Speaker 2: No, that's no, that's the point of the show. We

611
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 2: talk it through, and then because I don't even have

612
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 2: my hard rock best bet yet, I'm gonna announce it

613
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 2: at the end.

614
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 1: All right, if you're okay with me switching, then I

615
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 1: am going to switch to the under cause because I

616
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: feel better about it being a close defensive game than

617
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 1: I do about the Niners covering. I'm just worried about

618
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: this their offense against this defense keeping it close enough.

619
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 1: And if the Seahawks, you know, break one big play

620
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 1: with JSN, I worried that that'll be a lot to overcome.

621
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 1: But I feel really good about the under. So if

622
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: you're okay with that, I will switch to the.

623
00:26:58,520 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 3: Under forty five and a half.

624
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 1: It's proved official prediction, all right. But I do still

625
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 1: think the Niners cover. Like I said, I just don't

626
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 1: feel nearly as good about it. If you want a

627
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 1: chance to win the ultimate symbol of fantasy glory, the

628
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Championship Belt, courtesy of our good friends at

629
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,360
Speaker 1: Trophy Smack, the number one destination for epic fantasy.

630
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 3: Football hardware, then this is your moments.

631
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 1: This massive gold plated belt is built to make a statement.

632
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 1: It's bold, it's heavy, and it's guaranteed to hurt turn

633
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: heads in your league.

634
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 3: Don't just win your championship. Wear it.

635
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: To enter, all you need to do is subscribe to

636
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel right now, drop a comment

637
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 1: below in any of our videos.

638
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:32,719
Speaker 3: That is it.

639
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel,

640
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 1: so make sure to turn on notifications so you don't

641
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,719
Speaker 1: miss your chance to claim this championship belt and flex

642
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 1: on your entire league. It's gonna be hilarious when this

643
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: is a high scoring game and the Niners cover and

644
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 1: I lose both sides of it. Okay, let's go to

645
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: Texans APT Patriots and ericson. I will tell you this

646
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 1: was my favorite one. This is the one I wrote

647
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: down right away, no hesitation. I am taking the under,

648
00:27:57,800 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 1: even though it is the lowest total of the week.

649
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 1: It's at forty one on hard rock Bet. Let me

650
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: double check see if that's moved at all. Yep, still

651
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 1: forty one on hard rock Bet, and I'm taking.

652
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 3: The under here. I think it was under easily.

653
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: Honestly, the Texans defense, for my money, is the best

654
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 1: defensive football. I've been saying that for months at this point.

655
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 1: Not that I'm the only one, but I have felt

656
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 1: strongly about that for months. Certainly looked, you know, like

657
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 1: that was vindicated, you know in that game against the

658
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,120
Speaker 1: Steelers where they absolutely dominated them. And for as good

659
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 1: as Drake may is, I am just not like this

660
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 1: is still his first playoff run. He did struggle against

661
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 1: this Jesse Minter led Chargers defense, and that defense is

662
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: not nearly even remotely as close to as talented as

663
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: the Texans defense is. The Texans defense has made a

664
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 1: lot of really good opponents look really bad this season.

665
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: You know, even like thinking back to against Josh Allen,

666
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 1: who's like as much of a contemporary of this season

667
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 1: of Drake may as anybody, they held him to nineteen points,

668
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 1: right Like they held the Chiefs to ten points. Obviously

669
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: weird chief season, you know, like just looking back, like

670
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: on their schedule, it's a lot of really good teams,

671
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: Like the Ravens didn't have Lamar in that game, but

672
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: they had Dereck Henry and they held them to ten points,

673
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 1: right Like they held the Niners to fifteen points back

674
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: in October when they you know, their team was a

675
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 1: little bit healthier. It's like you just go down the

676
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 1: line and it does a lot of just really impressive

677
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 1: defensive performances against really good teams. And I am also

678
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 1: wired to just kind of believe, like they won in

679
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: the wildcard game.

680
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 3: They were a good team. They should have won that.

681
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 1: Like, I'm not convinced that this Patriots team is making

682
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl run. I actually really strongly considered just

683
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 1: picking the Texans to win this game. Honestly, ericson, it

684
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: would not surprise me if they did, at the very least.

685
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 1: Picking them to cover the plus three, I really like

686
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 1: that bet. But the Unders the way I want to

687
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: go because the Texas defense, I just think, is that good,

688
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 1: and I think Vrabel is a good enough defensive coach

689
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 1: that he is going to kind of frustrate stra I mean,

690
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: Stroud looked pretty dark frustrated against the Steelers. I could

691
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 1: see a similar kind of performance from him against the Patriots.

692
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 1: But the Houston defense keeping it really low scoring. And again,

693
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 1: if this was in the thirties, maybe I would like

694
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 1: be more hesitant about it this number being in the forties.

695
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 1: I don't care that Drake may is one of the

696
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: two best quarterbacks in football this season.

697
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 3: I don't care about any of that. I like.

698
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: I just I am as much of a believer in

699
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 1: this Texans defense as you can be, and I'm gonna

700
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 1: take the under as long as I have the opportunity

701
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 1: to do so.

702
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that it's really interesting what I did

703
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 2: before these last games played out. I looked at some

704
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 2: of the look ahead lines, because some books will post

705
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 2: future matchups in those lines, so even before we knew

706
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,959
Speaker 2: who was playing who in the divisional round, there are

707
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 2: certain sports books that had, oh, this is what the

708
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: lines are going to be if it's Patriots Texans. This

709
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 2: is what the line's gonna be if it's Patriots Steelers.

710
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 2: And what it was before we saw these teams play,

711
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 2: before the Patriots played, before the Texans played, it was

712
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 2: the total was at forty four and a half points.

713
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 2: So obviously, after Texans defense shuts out the Steelers, that

714
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 2: gets bet down. The Patriots offense doesn't do anything against

715
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: the Chargers defense, really, it goes down. So I thought

716
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 2: that number was way too high. Anyway, at forty four

717
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 2: and a half.

718
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say that if that was the number,

719
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 1: that would be my hard rock best bet of the millennium.

720
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, and I think that, But it also has

721
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 2: to go with we gravitate towards what we just saw. Oh, well,

722
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 2: the Rogers couldn't do anything, so obviously the Patriots are

723
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 2: gonna do nothing on offense. And I opened up this

724
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: week to agreeing with you now that the Texans are

725
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 2: gonna win, because come on right, I'm not gonna I'm

726
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 2: not gonna say the tech but maybe they cover.

727
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 1: But but by the way, by the way, setting aside

728
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: Week eighteen, which is obviously weird in that Colts game,

729
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: setting aside that the Texans have gone under that number

730
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: forty four in every week except.

731
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 3: For one since Week ten.

732
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 1: So like to end the season like that, that number

733
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 1: would have been pretty ludicrous, I think yeah.

734
00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 2: And there is always an edge to that too, where

735
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 2: if you bet on games before you even though the

736
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: outcome of the next game, well, you can get a

737
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 2: lot of value, but you could also get screwed because

738
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 2: if quarterbacks get hurt or injuries. So again, it's wagering

739
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 2: at the end of the day. So there's always gonna

740
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 2: be some type of risker you're going to take on,

741
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 2: but there's also value to be had if you're willing

742
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: to take on the risk. I agreed with basically everything

743
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 2: you said about the under in this game. That's kind

744
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 2: of how I saw it as well, especially at forty one.

745
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, let me give my prop too quickly, because

746
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 1: I forgot to give that Drake may under twenty twenty

747
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 1: to excuse me, two hundred and twenty four and a

748
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 1: half passing yards, Drake may under that kind of going

749
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 1: along just with like, I think the offenses are going

750
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 1: to struggle, so go ahead, but the I just wanted

751
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: to throw out the prop too.

752
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that makes sense, very correlated. I would assume

753
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: if you threw that in the same game parlay Builder

754
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 2: on betting pros, I'm sure that it would be an

755
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 2: A plus corel a plus plus correlation with the under

756
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: in the game being a little bit disappointing from the

757
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 2: offensive production side of things. Now, I will say one

758
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 2: of the things with the under in this game is

759
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 2: the Patriots can generate a lot of explosive plays, especially

760
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: on the field, like that has really been Drake May's.

761
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 2: That's been his difference in his impact on this Patriots

762
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: offense that basically has not had an explosive playmaker since

763
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 2: like Randy Moss. It was just like so long that

764
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: they can never generate anything big plays down the field,

765
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 2: They had no juice anywhere offensively. They get Henderson and

766
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 2: then they really changed the dynamics of this offense. And

767
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 2: what I thought was interesting was going back. So Drake

768
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 2: May's first NFL start last year was against the Houston

769
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 2: Dexans at home at Gillette. Patriot's got smoked in that game.

770
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 2: Because obviously they were terrible last year. But I thought

771
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: it was really interesting how Drake May played in that

772
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 2: game against a similar defense. So I thought, like, exactly

773
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 2: the same, but still Demiko Ryans as the head coach,

774
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 2: still Will Anderson, still Danielle Hunter like rushing the passer.

775
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 2: So I think that experience of facing this defense already

776
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 2: in some capacity is going to be it's going to

777
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 2: bode well for Drake May in this offense. And two

778
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 2: things that are kind of X factors for me are

779
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 2: his mobility. Number one, Aaron Rodgers can't move, so when

780
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 2: he's under pressure, like, you're not generating big plays. But

781
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 2: Drake May has the ability to shake off a pass

782
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 2: rusher by time and then chuck it downfield to Kaishaan Boody.

783
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 2: Kayshon Boody caught Drake May's first touchdown in the NFL

784
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,959
Speaker 2: after he burned Derek Stingley on a go route. Both

785
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 2: guys went to LSU, so there's a familiarity there. And

786
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 2: speaking of players that are familiar with this Texans defense,

787
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 2: look at Stefan Diggs. He was on the Texans last season.

788
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 2: He was actually a big part why the Texans killed

789
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 2: the Patriots last year because he was really effective, I

790
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 2: guess Christian Gonzales. So I think that having some familiarity

791
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 2: with this Texans defense, I think that gives the Patriots

792
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 2: a little bit more of an edge. So I think

793
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 2: that there are chances for New England to generate some big,

794
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 2: explosive plays. The offensive line is significantly better than it

795
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 2: was last year. Drake May rushed for thirty eight yards

796
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 2: the last time he faced this defense. We saw last

797
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 2: week when hey, I couldn't generate anything down the field

798
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 2: or as much, Well, he's going to use his legs.

799
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 2: And I know you kind of threw away Week eighteen

800
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: as a weird game against the colt and I would

801
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 2: agree for the most part, it was kind of a

802
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 2: weird game. But in the first half, the Texas were

803
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 2: playing their guys and Briley Leonard was like lighting up

804
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 2: this defense and how is he doing it? Big plays

805
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 2: downfield to Alec Pierce. Like the Patriots have those guys

806
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 2: with Kayshawn Boody generating big plays, Kyle Williams big plays,

807
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 2: Trayvon Henderson big plays. So I think if this bet

808
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 2: or if this game does go over, even if it's

809
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 2: buy a little bit it's because the Patriots get one

810
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 2: or two big explosive plays with some of their playmakers,

811
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 2: like they've done all year long. So ultimately, I like

812
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,359
Speaker 2: the Patriots to win this game they're playing at home.

813
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 2: I when you look at the Patriots as field goal favorites,

814
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 2: I believe that they've won eleven straight. So they've won

815
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 2: eleven straight as favorites, and they have ten wins this

816
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 2: season by at least three points or more. So they've

817
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 2: covered and won games as field goal kind of margins

818
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 2: for mostly all year. So I like New England to win.

819
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 2: I think that the experience, like I talked about with

820
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 2: Drake may is going to vode well for him and

821
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 2: this team. And if Nicole Collins doesn't play, that's such

822
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:03,479
Speaker 2: a significant loss to this Texans offense because I feel

823
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 2: like they might struggle, especially with how good the Patriots

824
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 2: run defense. This is like my last point here, and

825
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 2: this ties into my prop Woody marks under sixty and

826
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards. Woody Mark's coming off his best

827
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 2: game as a pro last week against the Steelers, going

828
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 2: over one hundred yards for the first time in his

829
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 2: NFL career. I don't think that's going to sustain here

830
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 2: because this Patriots run defense. I talked about it last week,

831
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 2: I believe with betting the under on o'maryon Hampton where

832
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: Berry he didn't really even play in that game, but

833
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 2: no running back had allowed or no running back the

834
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 2: Patriots had faced had gone over sixty rushing yards through

835
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 2: the first eleven games of the season. What was constant

836
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 2: during those first eleven games. They had Milton Williams, they

837
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 2: had Robertsplane, they had all their defensive guys and starters

838
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 2: back in the lineup. Those guys played in the Wildcart Round.

839
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 2: The Chargers running backs combined for twelve carries for thirty

840
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 2: yards two point seven yards per carry. So Woody Marks

841
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 2: is not getting anywhere near one hundred rushing yards, nowhere

842
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 2: near sixty rushing yards this week. Potentially no Nico Collins,

843
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 2: I don't think the Texans offense is goalle to keep

844
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 2: up here. Drake may can generate a couple of big plays,

845
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 2: and that's more like the paage to win cover minus

846
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 2: two and a half.

847
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,279
Speaker 1: I mean that that the Nico Collinson is part of

848
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,240
Speaker 1: why I went with the under and not the Texans

849
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 1: covering too, because again I mean like it's just really

850
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 1: hard for me to imagine this Texans offense getting to

851
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: like seventeen points maybe, And then I'm like, if the

852
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:21,879
Speaker 1: defense is as good as I really believe it is,

853
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 1: then you know, the Patriots would need to get to

854
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 1: twenty four just to push a forty one, you know line,

855
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,800
Speaker 1: if the Texans aren't getting higher than seventeen, if anything

856
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 1: other than that, and I like, I just don't see this.

857
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:36,720
Speaker 1: Like I think the Patriots could get a big play,

858
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 1: maybe even too, but is that going to be enough

859
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 1: to score in the high twenties against this defense?

860
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 3: Like I really think this is like, you know, it's

861
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 3: not quite like the.

862
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: Eighty five Bears or the two Bucks or the two

863
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 1: thousand Ravens, but like I do think it's it's like

864
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: up there, and it's a I think it's a good

865
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 1: enough defense to carry a bad offense to a Super Bowl,

866
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: especially in a field like this.

867
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 3: So I'm not saying that the Texans are my pick

868
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 3: to make the Super Bowl, but like, very.

869
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 1: Good enough defense that that is the best unit on

870
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: the field, and that is going to carry weight with me,

871
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 1: especially again against a really young quarterback in just his

872
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: second playoff game ever, who kind of struggled in his

873
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: first one, not that he was bad at this is

874
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 1: not at all and knocking a drink may, I just

875
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 1: mean like they didn't score a ton, Like you know,

876
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: it wouldn't surprise me if we see something a similar

877
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: offensive output.

878
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 2: He played a And I was talking about this on

879
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 2: some of the betting shows last week because my I

880
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 2: think one of my best bets last week was the

881
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 2: under in that game because Chargers Patriots game was forty

882
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,359
Speaker 2: six and a half points that total was and like,

883
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: watching that game, you think that total is ludicrous, Like

884
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 2: what were we thinking here? And that's because the Patriots

885
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 2: have only played two top ten defenses all year. They've

886
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 2: played the Browns and then they played the Chargers, and

887
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: this will be the third one they play. So again,

888
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 2: I'm not saying that even though I think that there's

889
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 2: a chance that could go over forty one, it's it

890
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 2: would be more likely because there's turnovers and there's short fields.

891
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 2: Because we saw both of these quarterbacks. I mean, Stroud could, dude,

892
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 2: why could he not like handle the weirdest And Drake

893
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 2: May had some turnovers against the Chargers, So.

894
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 1: That was Mike Tomlin devil magic in that and getting

895
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:08,760
Speaker 1: it all out of his system before retiring.

896
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, we.

897
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 1: Can move on from this one, by the way, like

898
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna bring this up on the next one too,

899
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 1: Like you gotta take the Patriots like minus three. You

900
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 1: can't just have your prediction be that, oh, the favorite's

901
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 1: gonna win this game, that like, no wonder you have

902
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 1: a better record than me and this I'm actually out

903
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 1: here making picks against the spread, and you're like, oh,

904
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: this team that's favored by three points at home and

905
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:31,839
Speaker 1: is the much higher they're gonna win the game.

906
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 2: Okay, okay, okay, yeah, I'll update mind to the Patriots covering.

907
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 3: All right, thank you. I appreciate that.

908
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 1: We're going live during another NFL playoff game. Join Joe

909
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 1: Pisapia and Scott Bogman at four or fifteen pm Easter

910
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 1: in this Saturday for a first half betting live stream

911
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: as the Buffalo Bills take on the Denver Broncos. We're

912
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 1: tracking line movement in real time, breaking down live odds,

913
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 1: and calling out bets as the game unfolds. Get in

914
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 1: before kickoff and catch us live on the Betting Pros

915
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. That's YouTube dot com. Slash betting pros. All right,

916
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 1: ericson Rams at Bears. Rams are minus three and a half,

917
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 1: and this is I was just referencing this to your prediction,

918
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 1: is that the Rams win.

919
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 3: You got you gotta s take minus the points here.

920
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: You can't say that the team favored by three and

921
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 1: a half is gonna win and that's your big prediction here.

922
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 2: I mean, I can do whatever I want. The predictions.

923
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 2: Don't say I have it because I because this game

924
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,400
Speaker 2: for me is the hardest one of.

925
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: The Okay, so I will admit too, I found them

926
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 1: all hard except for Patriots Texans, but I thought this

927
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 1: was the hardest.

928
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 3: So I'm in total agreement with you there.

929
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 2: You have a West Coast indoor team going on the

930
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: road to play the Bears in what's going to feel

931
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 2: like five degree weather, right, and the quarterback is dealing

932
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 2: with this like finger injury. So that's why I'm kind

933
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 2: of terrified of this game because everything suggests, hey, Rams

934
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 2: just steamroll. The Bears can't keep this up. They can't

935
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,720
Speaker 2: keep sucking for three quarters and then just like pulling

936
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,399
Speaker 2: out a w and the fourth quarter you have the

937
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 2: laflor brother thing going on where Micha Lafloor is part

938
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 2: of the ramstaf. He is the brother of Matt Lafour,

939
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 2: who hates Ben Johnson. Ben Johnson hates the Packers and

940
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 2: all this, you know, all this nonsense. So this one

941
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 2: is tough for me. I ultimately that's why I sided

942
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 2: with the Rams winning because I'm trying to basically be

943
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 2: a coward if anything, that's my prediction. I love this prop.

944
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 2: This is like way more confidence level Luther Burden going

945
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 2: over two and a half receptions. I was really high

946
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 2: on Jalen Cocher last week against the Los Angeles Rams.

947
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 2: That was one of my favorite props. It was one

948
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 2: of the rops I hit last week on the show,

949
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 2: was the first one we talked about between the Panthers

950
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 2: and Rams over three and a half receptions. Is because

951
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 2: the Rams can't stop can't stop slot receivers, right, that

952
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 2: is one of their biggest weaknesses in their secondary saw

953
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:45,880
Speaker 2: Jalen Cocher not just blow up in Week nineteen, but

954
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 2: he had a very productive game in the first matchup

955
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 2: against the Rams earlier in the season because he's deployed

956
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 2: from the slot burden. Last week in the wildcar R

957
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:56,720
Speaker 2: ran fifty one percent of his routes from the slot,

958
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 2: he got three balls for forty two yards on seven

959
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 2: targets in total. He also had five targets in the

960
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 2: first half. And although Roman duons that came back into

961
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,720
Speaker 2: the lineup last week, Burden has at least three catches

962
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 2: in nine straight games, including his last five games with

963
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 2: the Roman Dunes that in the lineup. So I don't

964
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 2: feel as confident about the spread or total in this

965
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,800
Speaker 2: particular matchup because of the weather, because of a quarterback

966
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,919
Speaker 2: injury potential, and because of the Bears just pulling out

967
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 2: these fourth quarter magic. I love this prop the most.

968
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 2: This is one of my favorite props that we've talked about,

969
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 2: is Burden going over to and outf for sept because

970
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 2: it's been absolute money for the majority of the year

971
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 2: the second half of the season, and the matchup against

972
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 2: the Rams is just just a slot funnel and that's

973
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 2: where Burden is primarily deployed in this Bears passing game.

974
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 1: The weather in this game is the reason why I'm

975
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: not like all in on the Rams. If not for

976
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 1: that situation, I'd be like really high on Rams covering

977
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:57,839
Speaker 1: this easily. But like the really cold, you know, Chicago weather,

978
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 1: does scare me genuinely. My ultimate prediction here is I

979
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 1: have the Rams winning, and I didn't say they were

980
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:06,880
Speaker 1: going to cover.

981
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 3: But I had to make to make it a little

982
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 3: more just like.

983
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 1: Beyond that, I added a note that this ends up

984
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 1: being the most fun game on the slate, which I

985
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:17,240
Speaker 1: think it could very easily be. I think this could

986
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 1: be a really high scoring back and forth. I do

987
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 1: have the under as my propier or not proper like

988
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 1: I the under as a pick that I like.

989
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 3: It was at forty nine when I wrote it down.

990
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:27,879
Speaker 1: It's moved down to forty eight and a half here,

991
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,280
Speaker 1: but obviously it's still the highest of the week.

992
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 3: I do like it to go under, you know, given

993
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 3: the weather and everything.

994
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 1: But I still think this will be a back and forth, fun,

995
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 1: feel like the ball's moving type of a game. You know,

996
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:42,760
Speaker 1: it'll be in question late. I think eventually this bears

997
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 1: like crazy late game. Luck is going to run out.

998
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 1: I think it happens here, and I think the Ram

999
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: like for as much as the weather scares me, and

1000
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,279
Speaker 1: the idea of like Stafford with a bad back at

1001
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 1: thirty eight years old getting knocked down onto the you know,

1002
00:43:56,960 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 1: the hard ground. Cole tundra of a social field exactly

1003
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 1: as much as that like scares me and everything. I

1004
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:08,959
Speaker 1: am just like I have felt basically since like late

1005
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 1: October that the Rams are the best team in football,

1006
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 1: and I know that it's been a little shakier in

1007
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 1: the last month and a half year. Maybe that's just

1008
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 1: they're a bad matchup with the Panthers for some reason.

1009
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 3: I don't know.

1010
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: I don't I don't want to hold when the same

1011
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 1: team that I don't think is as good as the

1012
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 1: team I like keeps winning or making it closer than

1013
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 1: it should be. I'm inclined to say like sometimes like

1014
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 1: teams are just like not a great matchup for you,

1015
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 1: and I don't want to overreact to that when a

1016
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 1: the Rams still came out with the win and be like, like,

1017
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:44,640
Speaker 1: I just I just still think they're the best team

1018
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,759
Speaker 1: in the NFL, and I think they're gonna end up

1019
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 1: winning here despite being on the road, despite the weather,

1020
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:53,319
Speaker 1: because I don't think the Bears are there yet.

1021
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 3: I think the Bears are good. I think they're fun.

1022
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 1: I think the marriage between Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams

1023
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 1: is gonna be really, really quite enjoyable for.

1024
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 3: The next decade, but this.

1025
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,279
Speaker 1: Is their first year of this marriage. This is a

1026
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 1: very very flawed defense. This is still an up and

1027
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 1: down offense. I don't think that the Bears, are who

1028
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: have really relied on their run game for a lot

1029
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:16,399
Speaker 1: of the season, are going to be able to run

1030
00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 1: that well on the Rams. I think they can throw

1031
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 1: on the Rams, but if the weather is you know,

1032
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 1: not great, that could impact them too, even though that's

1033
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 1: their home field. So I just think there's just enough

1034
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 1: that I think the Rams kind of hold them off

1035
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 1: at the end and bring this this run of crazy

1036
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: late game luck for the Bears. I don't want to

1037
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 1: call it all luck, because there's obviously a level of

1038
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,880
Speaker 1: like you know, mental fortitude to win those games, but

1039
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 1: like you know, ultimately it's a version of luck, and

1040
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 1: I think that that version of luck runs out this week.

1041
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: It's not sustainable. That shouldn't be your strategy. It's funny.

1042
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 2: I think they were talking to or reporter was talking

1043
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 2: to one of the defensive backs for the Bears, and

1044
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter he was talking about, Oh, well,

1045
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 2: we're going to get a turnover, because it's like, oh,

1046
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:03,719
Speaker 2: we've just been banking on these turnovers to win these

1047
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,760
Speaker 2: games every single week, and well what if that doesn't

1048
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:09,799
Speaker 2: happen against to your point, one of the best, if

1049
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 2: not the best team in the NFL. And it's funny,

1050
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,360
Speaker 2: as we've talked about this when we started, was not

1051
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 2: confident in making my pick. I think I actually gonna

1052
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 2: take the Rams. It gets the spread, especially with the

1053
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:22,760
Speaker 2: line moving a little bit, so I think it opened

1054
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 2: closer to Rams minus four and a half. Now I

1055
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 2: think it's down to Rams minus three and a half,

1056
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 2: and I think I'm gonna take the Rams. And again,

1057
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 2: listening to you kind of talk about it, we agreed

1058
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 2: on some of the similar points. A couple things I

1059
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:37,840
Speaker 2: want to note. So the Bears are gonna be with

1060
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 2: out their starting left tackle Ozzie Tripillo because he got

1061
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 2: injured last week. So that's a big loss to their

1062
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 2: offensive line. Whereas Matthew Stafford, they're gonna get one of

1063
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,799
Speaker 2: their offensive linemen back, Kevin Dotson. He's gonna come back

1064
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 2: to the starting lineup. And the thing too about the Rams.

1065
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 2: Last year, we saw them go to Philadelphia play in

1066
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 2: a snowstorm and almost win that game outright, So maybe

1067
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 2: we're over blowing this weather thing just a little bit.

1068
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:04,399
Speaker 2: And the other thing too, is the Rams can also

1069
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:07,720
Speaker 2: run the football, right, They got two really good running backs,

1070
00:47:07,719 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 2: and what do we see the Bears not be able

1071
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 2: to do at all all year is stop the run

1072
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 2: because all their linebackers injury. They just put TJ. Edwards

1073
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:17,280
Speaker 2: on injured reserve with a broken leg, so they're running

1074
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 2: out of bodies. Maybe this game is just Stafford. Hey,

1075
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 2: I've already locked up the MVP. I just want to

1076
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:23,919
Speaker 2: get the w hand it off to Kyron Williams, handed

1077
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 2: off to Blake Coorum. They can't stop the run, and

1078
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:27,920
Speaker 2: we don't even give them a chance to have a

1079
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 2: comeback in the fourth quarter because we're playing bullyball with

1080
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 2: our two running backs. So maybe that's a way that

1081
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:35,960
Speaker 2: you can spin it to really being pro Rams while

1082
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 2: also kind of considering the weather factor playing in and

1083
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 2: to your point about the Panthers kind of being their

1084
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 2: their kryptonite. If you look at the Rams on the

1085
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 2: road since twenty twenty three, they're eleven and four against

1086
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 2: the spread as a road favorite, twelve and two straight up,

1087
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 2: and they're eleven and two against the spread versus all

1088
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 2: teams not name the Carolina Panthers. So like when they

1089
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,400
Speaker 2: go on the road like they are road warriors, despite

1090
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:02,359
Speaker 2: playing on the West Coast having to travel a ton.

1091
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 2: It's by having to play outdoors a lot of the time,

1092
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 2: playing in colder weather elements. So yeah, I'm not sure

1093
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: how we got here, but I think I am feeling

1094
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 2: more confident about laying the points here with the Rams,

1095
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 2: and maybe we're getting some value on being afraid of

1096
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 2: the weather when maybe we're overblown. I mean, or more

1097
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 2: often than not, I don't think I've ever made a

1098
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 2: great decision because I took consideration of what the weather

1099
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 2: is going to be. I'm usually always regretted.

1100
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 1: Well, we are picking the Rams, right, We're just saying it,

1101
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 1: like despite the weather, So it's not like it's it's keeping.

1102
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 1: It's just like we're less gung ho because of the weather.

1103
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 1: We're not not picking the Rams because of it. Like

1104
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:39,759
Speaker 1: I think it would be a mistake to say I

1105
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:41,879
Speaker 1: really believe in the Rams as much as I do,

1106
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 1: but I'm going to pick the Bears solely because it's

1107
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,720
Speaker 1: going to be cold outside, Like that would be crazy,

1108
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:51,399
Speaker 1: but it's enough to make it not my hard rock

1109
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 1: best bet of the week. But it's like I still

1110
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:57,879
Speaker 1: am picking the Rams here, and and I'm not picking

1111
00:48:57,920 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 1: them against the spread. I'm just picking them straight up.

1112
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 1: If I was forced to pick against the spread, I

1113
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 1: would probably still take the Rams. We're doing against three

1114
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 1: and a half. We're squad riding Rams minus three and

1115
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:07,359
Speaker 1: a half.

1116
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 2: Let's go.

1117
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, so I I, you know, and and the Bears.

1118
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 3: I'm looking here.

1119
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 1: I I typically just look at the odds for you know,

1120
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:23,839
Speaker 1: against spread and everything, because that's what we usually pick. Here,

1121
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:28,800
Speaker 1: the Rams money line would be minus two hundred, which

1122
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: I wouldn't feel. I wouldn't like I would lay the

1123
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:34,280
Speaker 1: points at that number.

1124
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 2: Well it's three. It's three and a half right at

1125
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 2: hard Rock bets three and a half. So there again,

1126
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 2: that has been going down. So there's been money coming

1127
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 2: out on the Bears because I think when I checked

1128
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 2: yesterday it was minus four and a half. So I

1129
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 2: think that there are concerns about the weather and maybe

1130
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 2: we're overblowing it. It's like, go, Rams, man, run the

1131
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 2: football with common wills, play corn. They can't stop the

1132
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 2: run and they won't have a chance to come back

1133
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter because Sean McVay is gonna lay

1134
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 2: the hammer, just pounding the rock well.

1135
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 1: Speaking of hard rock bet, today's show is brought to

1136
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 1: you by our presenting sponsor, hard rock Bet. So it's

1137
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:08,719
Speaker 1: time for hard rock best Bets of the Week, presented

1138
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:10,799
Speaker 1: by hard rock bet Erickson. What is your hard rock

1139
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:11,800
Speaker 1: best bet of the week.

1140
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:14,799
Speaker 2: I am going to go with the New England Patriots

1141
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 2: covering against the Houston Texans minus three or minus three

1142
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 2: and a half. The Patriots this year have won eleven

1143
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 2: straight games as favorites. They've won ten games this season

1144
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 2: by at least three points or more. Yes, Houston has

1145
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:34,520
Speaker 2: an elite defense, but Patriots have Drake may so give

1146
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 2: me the Pats laying the points at home.

1147
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 1: You mentioned that the Patriots have won eleven straight games

1148
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 1: against the spread. The Texans have just won like ten

1149
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 1: straight games period, like they just keep winning.

1150
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 3: I am not. I'm so so it's funny because.

1151
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:52,479
Speaker 2: We're going head to head with our hard rock best bets.

1152
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I'm so tempted to take Houston

1153
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 1: plus three. At the end of the day, I will

1154
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:01,319
Speaker 1: stick to my guns and say Texas's under forty one

1155
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 1: is my hard rock best bet of the week. I

1156
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:06,880
Speaker 1: am very, very tempted to go against you, so Honestly,

1157
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:09,359
Speaker 1: I'm tempted. I'll tell you, just looking up the money line,

1158
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:11,399
Speaker 1: I'm tempted to take the Texans on the money line.

1159
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 1: I they're plus one forty five at hard Rock Bet.

1160
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 1: I think the defense is the best unit in the playoffs,

1161
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:22,600
Speaker 1: and like I've been thinking about them as a dark

1162
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 1: horse super Bowl contender in a year like this where

1163
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 1: there's nothing like who's the obvious like superhero they have

1164
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:31,399
Speaker 1: to beat. It's just Josh Allen. They've beaten Josh Allen

1165
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 1: already this season. Like, I really do think as a

1166
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 1: dark horse contender, They're really intriguing to me with this defense.

1167
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,080
Speaker 1: And if Stroud can just like not turn the ball

1168
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,600
Speaker 1: over four times in a game like I would feel

1169
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 1: even better about it. So I am so tempted to

1170
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 1: parlay the under with Texans money line or Houston plus three,

1171
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:52,239
Speaker 1: but I can't quite get there. This is supposed to

1172
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:53,840
Speaker 1: be what I feel best about, so I will I

1173
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 1: will stick with just what I do feel best about,

1174
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 1: which is the same game as you. But I'm taking

1175
00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:01,280
Speaker 1: the under here at forty one. As I already talked about.

1176
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:03,479
Speaker 1: Those were our hard Rock Best bets of the week.

1177
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:05,880
Speaker 1: Remember hard Rock Bet has live in game betting, so

1178
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 1: you're never too late to the action. Find a winner

1179
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:10,360
Speaker 1: or grab that player prop you meant to play, and

1180
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 1: live bet between snaps and just a few easy taps

1181
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 1: bonus bets. If you win, just place a five dollars

1182
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:17,239
Speaker 1: bet and if it hits, you get not only your

1183
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Speaker 1: winnings but also an extra one hundred and fifty dollars

1184
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 1: in bonus bets. So just because your team may be

1185
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 1: out of it, that doesn't mean you have to sit

1186
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 1: on the sidelines this postseason. Between same game parlays, live betting,

1187
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,839
Speaker 1: it can't mis welcome offer and new promos dropping every day,

1188
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:31,800
Speaker 1: hard Rock Bet has you covered all postseason long. Download

1189
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 1: a hard Rock Bet app and make your first deposit.

1190
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 4: Payble and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by

1191
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:38,799
Speaker 4: the Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the

1192
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:39,399
Speaker 4: Seminal hard.

1193
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 3: Rock Digital LLC in other states.

1194
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:46,280
Speaker 4: Must be twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,

1195
00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:49,479
Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply.

1196
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 4: Concerned about gambling in Florida, I call one eight three

1197
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 4: to three play wise in Indiana, if you are someone

1198
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 4: you know as a gambling problem, laws help called one

1199
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:58,719
Speaker 4: eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one

1200
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 4: hundred gambler in Arizona, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

1201
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 3: Erickson will get out of here on that.

1202
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:07,759
Speaker 1: Enjoy the game, Enjoy the weekend as a whole, but

1203
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 1: enjoy particularly going to the game. I've only attended one

1204
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 1: Ravens postseason game in my life. They lost, but it

1205
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 1: was very fun to be a part of that atmosphere

1206
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 1: going into that, So enjoy it. I will not be

1207
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 1: rooting for the Patriots, but I will be rooting for

1208
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:22,320
Speaker 1: you to have a good time.

1209
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 2: Oh, I appreciate that. I've actually been to multiple Ravens

1210
00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:28,920
Speaker 2: playoff games. Ravens playoff games, well, yeah, because they're always

1211
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 2: they're always visiting. Yes, So I was at the Billy

1212
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 2: Cundiff game, so that was a big highlight for me.

1213
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 2: I was also at the Ray Rice game where he

1214
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,240
Speaker 2: went for like a billion yards. I think Joe Flaccoll

1215
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 2: attempted like four passes.

1216
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:46,400
Speaker 1: He ran for like an eighty year touchdown. The first

1217
00:53:46,440 --> 00:53:48,400
Speaker 1: play the game and just never stopped.

1218
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:51,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I've been to some wins, been to some losses,

1219
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 2: hopefully going to a win and hopefully we can talk

1220
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:57,240
Speaker 2: about the Patriots next week here on the Prediction Show,

1221
00:53:57,480 --> 00:53:58,800
Speaker 2: and not the Houston Texas.

1222
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:03,280
Speaker 1: That that Condiff one that was the the heartbreaker.

1223
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:04,880
Speaker 3: Like of all the Ravens have had a lot of

1224
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 3: heartbreakers in.

1225
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 1: The last decade and a half, that was the one that, like,

1226
00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 1: especially in the pre Lamar era, was the like, this

1227
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:18,600
Speaker 1: was a super Bowl level team and like Flacco outplayed Brady.

1228
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 3: And it didn't matter.

1229
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 2: So well, the Patriots end up losing the Super Bowl anyway,

1230
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:25,680
Speaker 2: So really it's not that great of a memory either.

1231
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:27,839
Speaker 3: Well because it's not just the Billy Coundiff game.

1232
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: It's the Lee Evans game followed by Billy Kundiff and.

1233
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:36,280
Speaker 3: I think about that a lot here in Baltimore.

1234
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,000
Speaker 1: All Right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there

1235
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 1: for Ericson on Ryan Warmly. Thanks everybody for tuning in.

1236
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 1: We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening to the

1237
00:54:44,000 --> 00:54:47,160
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show,

1238
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:49,880
Speaker 1: the best freeway to support us is by leaving a

1239
00:54:49,920 --> 00:54:53,760
Speaker 1: positive review on Apple Podcasts. At fantasypros dot com, Slash

1240
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 1: review or on Spotify.

1241
00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 3: Follow us on x

1242
00:54:56,920 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 1: Instagram and TikTok at fantasy Pros, and subscribe your YouTube

1243
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 1: channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros