1 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:08,240 Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is 2 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Joe Rico, and 3 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: today we are starting up a very exciting series ADP battles. 4 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: I know that you guys get into draft rooms. Sould 5 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 1: I select player A? Should I select player B? It's 6 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: always a bit of a question. So today we're getting 7 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 1: it started off with starting pitchers, and I don't think 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 1: there's anybody better that we could have brought on than 9 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: Nick Pollock and Inosarus. Here as we are going to 10 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 1: be breaking down ten different starting pitcher debates. Fellas. I 11 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,480 Speaker 1: really appreciate you making the time today. How's it going. 12 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,279 Speaker 2: It's great. Yeah, it's good to see Joe. We love 13 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 2: this podcast. We've done it in multiple years. I think 14 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,559 Speaker 2: with you now so and you're the reason why we 15 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: have the craft. So thank you appreciate. 16 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 1: I'm a co parent. I guess there's one out of 17 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 1: the I don't know how you'd want to put me 18 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: in the custody agreement there, but yeah, a conversation a 19 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,319 Speaker 1: couple of years ago at First Pitch Arizona walking down 20 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: a hallway with Eno. After we've had a couple of 21 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: beers talking about podcasts, and there you go. Theft the 22 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: craft exists now, so I'm taking some credit for that 23 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 1: at least. EMO. Thank you so much for hopping on today. Man, 24 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: how you doing, no problem? 25 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 3: This is my favorite time of the year. I'm in 26 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 3: Oh my god, I'm probably on the clock. I'm in 27 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 3: like three slow drafts at the same time right now. 28 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 2: We'll make a big live on the stream. It'd be great. 29 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:25,479 Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe I will. 30 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: Maybe it'll be slow drafts, quick drafts. There's I got 31 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: a lot of stuff. We got tout wars tomorrow, there's 32 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: an auction on Thursday. There's all kinds of stuff going 33 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: on right now. And I know you guys are also 34 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: getting ready for your drafts. So we are going to 35 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: be breaking down a lot of starting pitcher battles today. 36 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: I'm using Yahoo ADP, but these are also very close 37 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: on a lot of different sites, but Yahoo is probably 38 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: the most popular one, so we're picking from there. But 39 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: I think these will apply regardless of where you are playing. 40 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: And we're gonna get start off with kind of a 41 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: hot one and it's gonna be those two pitchers who 42 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: are going in and around the first round, and there 43 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 1: will be some people who say I'm not taking a 44 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: picture in the first round one way or another. There 45 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: will be some people who say, whatever happens, I'm leaving 46 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: with an ace in those first twelve or fifteen picks. 47 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: So for those people, you know, we'll start with you. 48 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: They're on the clock. Let's say it's pick thirteen fourteen, 49 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,399 Speaker 1: and you got Tarique Schooble and you got Paul Schmes 50 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: up there. Who are you choosing from if you are 51 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: going to take a picture in that range. 52 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 3: Mmm, I'm going fal Skiens. Dude, I'm going false Skins. 53 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 3: I don't, don't. It's really hard to make a decision 54 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 3: between those two. I do think there's a little whiff 55 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 3: of more health risk with Terry Skoogle. You're talking about 56 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 3: two significant arm injuries that he's undergone in the last 57 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 3: four or five years, and he has these kind of 58 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 3: cross body mechanics that he fights, and he's always trying 59 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 3: to not be his crossbody. And I don't know if 60 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 3: that if that's the source of it, of some of it, 61 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:00,799 Speaker 3: or if you just throw that was really hard, you know. 62 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 3: That's the other aspect of it is he throws really hard. 63 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 3: He does have like a decent gap between. You know, 64 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 3: he's kind of one of those guys who saved something 65 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 3: in the tank and he like maxes out at like 66 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 3: ninety nine, but it kind of sits ninety six, which 67 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 3: is good. But and he seems like he's super healthy 68 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 3: right now. But I that's where I ended up kind 69 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 3: of because I think both of them in terms of 70 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:27,360 Speaker 3: arsenal's below strikeout rates. You know, situations home parks even 71 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 3: are in ideal landing spots. 72 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: Nick, you agree or you have a different opinion. 73 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 2: I'm going to go with scooball and it's just more 74 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 2: for pitchability, for I trust his scoobl if I'm going 75 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 2: for the first pitch on the draft as someone's just like, yeah, 76 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 2: I know that you have a full arsenal to be 77 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 2: able to get through anything that you've showcased that you 78 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 2: can go six seven innings in games and be that 79 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 2: workers already. And what's actually really interesting at pol skiings 80 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 2: like we will watch him he go, oh yeah, this 81 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 2: guy should be like a thirty five percent strikeout easy, 82 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 2: no problem. You might be surprised to see that. Plv 83 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 2: our projections here pitchro List have him in a sub 84 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 2: thirty percent strike out rate, and I think that's because 85 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 2: the forcinger doesn't get a ton of whiffs. It's more 86 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 2: about horizontal movement surprize on that forcingers then actually allows 87 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 2: for more contact on it when they're laid on, it 88 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 2: kind of goes back towards the handle, which is great, 89 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 2: good outs, but it's not actually the big strike up 90 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 2: pitch that's a splinker really for Paul Skins and without 91 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,040 Speaker 2: I don't know, it doesn't have an absurd whiff slider right, 92 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 2: it's good, but it's not this like, okay, cool, wait 93 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 2: for this Dylancy slider coming. It doesn't make the full 94 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 2: package quite yet for Paul Skins to say that, yes, 95 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 2: this is clearly going to be a thirty five percent 96 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 2: strike ouery guy. And then yeah, Scooble, I think is 97 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 2: just more of a complete thing that I feel. Yeah, 98 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 2: this is my SP one. I'm going to be totally 99 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 2: fine with us. 100 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 1: SP one and SP two for both of you guys though, 101 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 1: or is there really Nick? 102 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 2: Where's number two? For me? 103 00:04:58,279 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: Come on? 104 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:00,040 Speaker 2: Every want to watch them in spring? That game, I 105 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 2: was just like, this is yeah, it's just dumb. He's 106 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 2: just dumb. 107 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: We're going to get to Garrett Crochet later he is 108 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: one of my favorites, top five guy for me. But 109 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: that is something that I think you're differing from a 110 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 1: lot of the industry on there, going with Crochet at 111 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 1: number two. But I love it. I love it, don't. 112 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 2: I don't listen to the industry. I am the industry 113 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 2: and I'm just kidding. I just I don't let it 114 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:17,799 Speaker 2: get biased. 115 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 1: That's the way to do it. You know, if you're 116 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 1: going to do your own rankings, it's good to not 117 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: look at anybody else's, put your own down and then 118 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: maybe look at other people's after see if you're way 119 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: too high, way too low on a guy. But that 120 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: is the way to do it. And you know you 121 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: mentioned Garret Crochet. Let's jump right into that battle. We 122 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 1: got a couple of former White Sox, then move to 123 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: Red Sox, big Lefties. There's some comparisons here. I've heard 124 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet refer to as Chris sale Light in some aspects, 125 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: and they are going Nick looks a little bit of 126 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: Paul there. We'll let I'm talk in a second. But 127 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: big Lefty. I think that's where it comes from White 128 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 1: Sox to Red Sox. I think that it doesn't go 129 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:52,160 Speaker 1: too much farther than that, but they're both going right 130 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: around the same adp of thirty eight or thirty nine. Nick, 131 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: we'll start with you on this one. What do you 132 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 1: think about that? Com First of all, do you have 133 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: a preference between the two of them this year? I 134 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: guess you do. 135 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 2: I mean, I understand it going from the White Sox, 136 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 2: the Red Sox, lefties, dominant aces, all that kind of stuff. 137 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 2: Untally get it. But what Garrick Crochet does is I'd 138 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 2: like to draft pictures who you can just throw fastballs 139 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 2: for strikes and guys can't hit them, Like that's yours. 140 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 2: The stablest floor you could possibly owe for is, Yeah, 141 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 2: the guy's just gonna throw the fastballs and like, well, 142 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 2: I can't do that. And then he has a cutter 143 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 2: off of that that looks just similar to it, and 144 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 2: that was amazing just as a two pitch pitcher last year. 145 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 2: And then he had the sweeper moved away from the 146 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 2: traditional slider that was effective for him. He's also having 147 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 2: the sinker now that is phenomenal against lefties. I mean, 148 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 2: it's just he's dumb as a pitcher and I feel 149 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 2: like he should just strike out ten guys every single 150 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 2: time he pitch is better situation now in Boston. I 151 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 2: would even argue that those I want to say that 152 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 2: Fenway is worse and it's a bad place to pitch. Sure, 153 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 2: but my understanding is that it should actually turn a 154 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 2: lot of it's the left field that might be home 155 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,279 Speaker 2: runs into doubles. And when you talk about guys, especially 156 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 2: at this kind of a level, what are the ways 157 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 2: that they actually have a bad year Ray, It's not 158 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 2: the doubles that burn them, it's the home runs. So 159 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 2: there's some sort of suppression going on for home runs 160 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 2: for greater Crochet. That's a good thing in my view, 161 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 2: because then now they're on second, I'll just right on 162 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 2: the next guy. I love Garrett Crochet. I really can't 163 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 2: express this enough. It's such a fantastic season in a 164 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 2: runway for him to just be the sp one and fantasy. 165 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 1: You know, we've talked, I believe on the show last year, 166 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: and I think it was in the Nick Paveta context 167 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 1: about how Fenway is a weird park to pitch, and 168 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: there's a lot of pitchers who don't love it. 169 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 2: Necessarily. 170 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: It's a little bit weird from a couple of different aspects, 171 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: it's pretty unique park, and you concern on your part 172 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: there of Crochet going to Boston and again that debate 173 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:46,239 Speaker 1: of Crochet versus Sale, do you lean one way or another? 174 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 3: Here I ended up falling into this the situation with 175 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 3: evaluating Fenway and thinking that it's actually some of it 176 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 3: is like very sort of psychological because a lot of 177 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 3: the pictures were saying, oh, you know, the mound is lower, 178 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 3: and then when I started asking them about it, like oh, 179 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 3: what do you mean by that? And like where's you know, 180 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 3: where are you coming from? All that, they started talking 181 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,679 Speaker 3: about things about like how close the backstop was and 182 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 3: like how there's no foul ground, and so they started 183 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 3: talking about things that had nothing to do with the 184 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 3: mound size anymore. And I realized that I just think 185 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 3: that to some there's like a psychological aspect having talk 186 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 3: to Garrett Crochet like that dude does not think like that, 187 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 3: Like he is that he like he he has you 188 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 3: can see it too. He has these dominant pitches and 189 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 3: he just throws dominant pitches. You know. He's just the 190 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 3: guy's like I just throw the I throw the ball 191 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 3: real hard, dude. And I'm not saying he doesn't have 192 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 3: touch and he can't add the sinker and all that 193 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 3: stuff is good. But like he's he's it doesn't surprise 194 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 3: me at all that he had this time as a reliever, 195 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 3: Like he kind of has that, Like I come out here, 196 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 3: I just throw my best pitches as hard as I can, 197 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 3: and I get out, you know. So I actually don't 198 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 3: think that Boston will be that much of a problem 199 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 3: for him. And what also happened was the psychology you 200 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 3: were just talking about, of consensus psychology. So I was 201 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,839 Speaker 3: just looking at this, and you know, Nick, you know, 202 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 3: I could tell he's about to say that it's great 203 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 3: Crochet over Chrissale and I'm not along with him, nodding 204 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 3: along with him. I'm like, oh, yeah, totally, I totally 205 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 3: agree with you. I look over my rankings. I have 206 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:29,079 Speaker 3: Sail ahead of Crochet and I'm like, why do I 207 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:30,959 Speaker 3: have Saale ahead of Crochet? And I look across and 208 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 3: I'm like, Okay, Crochet has better stuff. Plus Crochet has 209 00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 3: a lower era projected, Crochet has a higher strikeout ray projected. 210 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 3: What am I doing here? And then I was like, oh, 211 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 3: it's got to be innings, right, And I'm like, well, 212 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,560 Speaker 3: I gave great Crochet one hundred and sixty two innings 213 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 3: and I gave Chris Sale one hundred and ffty six. 214 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 3: Is people cannot forget that Chris Sale is often injured 215 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 3: guy too. You know, Chris Sale was the guy before 216 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,600 Speaker 3: Crochet that couldn't get healthy, you know, like you know, 217 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 3: So if I've got Crochet for more innings and more 218 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 3: strikeouts and a lower era, I just I just flipped 219 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 3: them in the ranks. So oh no, But is this 220 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 3: consensus that's happening? Is you know, am I not being 221 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:17,959 Speaker 3: beholden to my to my own ranks? Is that what's happening? 222 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 3: Is this is how consensus? 223 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 2: What are the ranks vibes? 224 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 3: Guys? 225 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 1: It's interesting because both of them do have that kind 226 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: of injury risk to some extent. Crochet with a huge 227 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: innings jump. I understand being a little bit skeptical, and 228 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 1: he's also very expensive. But the talent, like you guys 229 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: have laid out, it's unimpeachable. He is brilliant, he really is. Nick. 230 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 2: I've really got to emphasize the White Sox did everything 231 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 2: you could ever dream of for Garrett Crochet to be healthy. Now, 232 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 2: I mean, they just let him go three four innings 233 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 2: for the entirety of the second half, despite all of 234 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 2: our fantasy teams being so upset. They didn't mean giving 235 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 2: him an opener. 236 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 1: They just give him. 237 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 3: But he didn't shut him down completely. They didn't like 238 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:04,440 Speaker 3: pitch him. They pitched him the full season, just not 239 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 3: the full season, which is I think probably ideal. Like 240 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,319 Speaker 3: you still kept him on this schedule, like made him 241 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 3: stretch out, you know, and they didn't fully stop them. 242 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 3: If you fully stop in pitching, the ramp back up 243 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 3: is so hard. Absolutely for every week that you're not 244 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 3: doing anything, there's like three weeks of getting back on track. 245 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 1: So we have a consensus. I think of Garrett Crochet 246 00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 1: as much as Chris Sale, I think is probably fairly safe. 247 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 1: The age is a little bit worrying. You can't just 248 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: ignore all the things that he's done in the past. 249 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 1: There's not like, I don't think a huge like elbow 250 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: risk or whatever, but there's just been a lot of 251 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: different injuries and at his age you just never really know. 252 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: But that's an interesting one and it's interesting to see 253 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: EEno make that flip here live on the air. I 254 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,719 Speaker 1: always love to see things like that happen before we 255 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:54,079 Speaker 1: keep going. I want to remind you guys about the 256 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 1: Draft Wizard. You got to use Draft Wizard to get 257 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 1: expert rankings, perform quick mock drafts, and receive real time 258 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 1: advice during your draft to build a winning team. Practice 259 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 1: your draft strategy in minutes at any time with fast, 260 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 1: realistic mock drafts powered by expert insights. Get live draft 261 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: advice and player recommendations every time you're on the clock. 262 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: So if you're ready to win, heat to fantasypros dot 263 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 1: com slash MLB Draft Wizard or download our app MLB 264 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 1: Draft Wizard today and start drafting smarter, not harder. All right, 265 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: here's an interesting one. We're gonna pit a couple of 266 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 1: big dogs. One of them I'm very interested in this year, 267 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: and that's Jacob de Gram, And we're gonna go up 268 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: against Nick's guy, and that's Cole Reagan's. They're both going 269 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 1: right around ADP of forty eight in some high stakes drafts. 270 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: Jacob de Gram will go up higher. And if you 271 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: see a couple of one hundred mile an hour radar 272 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: gunshots who knows where main events season, we'll have him going. 273 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: But you know, we'll kick it back to you to 274 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 1: start off this one, Jacob Degram or Cole Reagan's at 275 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 1: an ADP of around forty eight. 276 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:48,559 Speaker 3: You know, this is one of those ones too in 277 00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 3: the in the projections, I owe lower projected era, higher 278 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 3: projected strikeout raid for Jake Degram. That settles it, and 279 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,319 Speaker 3: I won't I won't wander over to the Oh, my god, 280 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 3: the inn category. My god, what is this? I mean, 281 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:07,200 Speaker 3: like de Gram has like been so amazing, you know, 282 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,559 Speaker 3: in when he's been in, but it's been like fifty innings, 283 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 3: you know, over the last three years or something. So 284 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 3: it's like, I don't know, I don't know what number 285 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 3: you put there. I put one hundred and thirty two 286 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 3: innings next to him. For Reagan's, I have one hundred 287 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 3: and seventy six. You know, I do think that if 288 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 3: one was like, you know, a back end rotation guy, 289 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 3: then I would take one hundred and thirty innings. I 290 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 3: still have de Grom fairly high, but when you have 291 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 3: Cole Reagan's, the extra fifty innings could be a big difference. 292 00:13:36,559 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 3: I mean that's wins. You know, you strikeouts as a quantity, 293 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 3: even if maybe by rate, de Grahm is higher. So 294 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 3: I like Reagan's a lot even in One thing that 295 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,559 Speaker 3: did bug me was that Reagan's lost more velo over 296 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,199 Speaker 3: the last last season. Of course last season than any 297 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 3: other starting pitcher. But I believe Nick said that he 298 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:00,679 Speaker 3: had some fixes for that. He thought in his low line. 299 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I talked to Reagan's about he was saying that 300 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 2: it was more about his bottom half and not his arm, 301 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,880 Speaker 2: which is good. He was saying it was mechanical. I 302 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 2: personally just think it was fatigue and effects in different ways, 303 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 2: and I think the time was a little bit different 304 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 2: for it. But Reagan's didn't have any like in this 305 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,199 Speaker 2: off season was like, I'm fine, I'm all good. I'm 306 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 2: just I am ramping back up normally, which is fun 307 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 2: and it's weird for me to not be in on 308 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 2: the ray guns pew pew pew. But I think this 309 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 2: is really important of a question as a fantasy manager. 310 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 2: Are you in a draft and home, Are you in 311 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 2: a best ball league? Are you in a super deep league? 312 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 2: I personally do my rankings based on a twelve teamer, 313 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 2: and I think that's the most consistent one in the 314 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 2: twelve team or shallower or actually at wing our users 315 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 2: more than say fifteen teamers in deeper right, So with 316 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 2: that in mind, you have to understand that what you're 317 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 2: gaining with de Gram, which is not your other like 318 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 2: your number five starter one thirty innings, It's that you're 319 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 2: getting to Gram at five six innings, and then he stops, 320 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 2: and then it's Il and then you get that replacement. 321 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 2: And if you think about these players as a roster 322 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 2: spot as opposed to as a player, well, we're thinking 323 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 2: Cole Reagan's with that innings projection to be throughout the 324 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 2: entire season, but then it's dea Gram plus whoever you 325 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 2: get in this year, the sp pool is as deep 326 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 2: as I've ever seen it. I mean, the quality of 327 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 2: a replacement pitcher is insanely good relative to the top 328 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 2: end here. So I'm actually favoring to Graham for this 329 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 2: reason that I have this guy that I know is 330 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 2: quality and going to be absurdly good. We saw him 331 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 2: throw ninety nine in September last year, like he's good 332 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 2: to go. Not to mention, de Gram was a workhorse 333 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 2: until twenty twenty one, and then he had the precursor 334 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 2: to TJ that took him out for a little bit. 335 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 2: I think there's another injury fair, but then he had 336 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 2: the TJ after that, So it's realy two injuries to 337 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 2: me that he's had over the course of the last 338 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 2: four years, and now he has a healthy elbow. I 339 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 2: know that sounds weird to say, like, well, maybe du 340 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 2: Gram isn't just like destined for fifty innings or something 341 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 2: like that. I know you said one thirty two. I 342 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 2: love one thirty two. My gosh, one hundred and thirty 343 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 2: two d Grom plus whoever comes in for another forty 344 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 2: whatever it is after that. 345 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 4: Oh, oh, oh my gosh, put it around me and 346 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 4: give me some hot co coke because I'm cozy. 347 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 3: That's a still managed to be like back in top 348 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 3: twenty five guy last year with one hundred and thirty 349 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 3: five innings. 350 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 2: That's oh my gosh. So I'm in a da Gram. 351 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 2: I know you are Joe too, but I just think 352 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 2: this is such a good quality. And also know you 353 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 2: as a manager in May, you were going to be 354 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 2: regretting not having d Grom. You're just going to see 355 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 2: your buddy over there be like, oh, I just got 356 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 2: eight innings in twelve stregas Grom. You're like, what am 357 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 2: I doing? Why did you know? That's what it's going 358 00:16:56,240 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 2: to be called. But hey, I'll take Cole Reagan's all 359 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 2: day too. I think he's spent on both inside of 360 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 2: my top ten. So I'm a big with. 361 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:06,440 Speaker 1: With de Gram. It's like you said it, Nick, when 362 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: we were doing that podcast together in Arizona. It was 363 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,760 Speaker 1: FTN podcast that you don't give me the guy who 364 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:13,679 Speaker 1: has the clean elbow. He is when he's healthy, the 365 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: best pitcher in baseball. And I think, honestly, maybe I'm 366 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 1: reading too much into the comp but why can't he 367 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: do what Verlander did a couple of years ago and 368 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: what Chris Sale did last year at an older age 369 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 1: coming off of injuries. Everybody's kind of down and out 370 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: on you. Why can't Jacob to Grom be the sp 371 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 1: one growing one hundred and thirty and forty innings? 372 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 3: The list for second Tommy John's is worse. 373 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,160 Speaker 1: That's the that's the problem. But it was how long 374 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 1: ago was his first Tommy John? It was a good 375 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 1: while back, wasn't It. 376 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 3: Was in college? 377 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 1: College? Right? Yeah? Does that make a difference the space 378 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:42,360 Speaker 1: between them? 379 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,160 Speaker 2: No, like second Timmy John. The data is weird. We're 380 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 2: changing how we're using the picture. 381 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 3: Two. 382 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like they don't know what to really make 383 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:54,120 Speaker 2: out of second. 384 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 3: The best the best one so far is Navy vol Me. 385 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 1: Oh yeah about Reagan's What about Reagan's. 386 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 3: Revision? 387 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 2: I think he had he had his first one and 388 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:08,360 Speaker 2: it wasn't good and they had to redo it. 389 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, does that count as too or is that count 390 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: still counts one? 391 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 3: I don't know. 392 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 2: You're going on. 393 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:21,159 Speaker 3: Yes, Strider is an interesting case too, because they it 394 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 3: didn't tear fully and so he got only I think 395 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 3: the internal brace, and so it's that that might be 396 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 3: a one point five. Who knows? 397 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: Who knows these days with the braces and the Tommy 398 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 1: I mean, we don't even with o Tani too, and 399 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: until I go off subject, but like, do we ever 400 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: even were we ever even told exactly what his procedure was? 401 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 3: That was a brace too? I was really annoyed about that. 402 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,160 Speaker 3: Just tell us, come on. 403 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: Tell us, what's the secret for I don't know. 404 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 2: He had a very normal doctor. 405 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's yes, that's the kind of details we got. 406 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 3: It's like, what, no, what was this surgery? Dude? 407 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: Hard to keep track anymore. But those are kind of 408 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 1: the elite battles we're gonna go through today inside the 409 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 1: top fifty eightp But let's keep it going with Shota 410 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 1: Imanaga versus Logan Web, two guys that I think are 411 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 1: both pretty solid, pretty stable options. You get more strikeouts 412 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 1: with a Monaga Web, more of the ground ball guy. Nick, 413 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: We'll start with you on this one strong preference between 414 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: these two. 415 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:30,639 Speaker 2: I'm gonna lead Imanaga. I'm a little surprised that his 416 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 2: four seemer didn't get a ten percent plus swing striker 417 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 2: against lefties or righties last year, but I do love 418 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,120 Speaker 2: the fact of how consistent that splitter is. And yes, 419 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 2: I believe in a splitter. It's amazing. I know as 420 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 2: a number two pitch, but this is just one of 421 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 2: the best and most consistent ones. And then I was 422 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,400 Speaker 2: actually really impressed by his sweeper against lefties. And it's 423 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 2: a two pitch mix that should work on both both 424 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 2: handedness matters consistently. It's a great situation for him, and 425 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 2: with Logan Web actually myself liking him more as I 426 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 2: looked further into him. He had horrible luck on his 427 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 2: change up last year. The ICR marks that is the 428 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 2: ideal contact allowed, which is just a better version for 429 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 2: hard hit rate. I jumped up massively on this change 430 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:22,120 Speaker 2: despite actually not really utilizing it any differently and having 431 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 2: still amazing PLV marks and everything. And I think it's 432 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 2: because Batters became ready for it. Finally they knew that 433 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 2: Logan Web was just like, I'm going to throw sixty 434 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,199 Speaker 2: change ups in a game guy, So he actually had 435 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 2: to change what he was doing a bit and worked 436 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 2: in a bit more of those sliders involved with obviously 437 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,119 Speaker 2: the sink or two and it kind of and it worked. 438 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 2: But I feel like now Web can come back and 439 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 2: get better luck on that change up with his better 440 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 2: mix now and just I like them both. By the 441 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 2: end of the day. I feel like Web, we saw 442 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 2: a one oh six whip and then we saw the 443 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 2: one twenty three, and it's just yeah, you are going 444 00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 2: to allow more hits because you are a ground ball guy. 445 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 2: Ground ball guy, right, that's just your nature. While Imanaga 446 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 2: is extreme flyball Rickley helps him, uh, and it's it 447 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 2: generally seems to me you have a better whip with Managa. 448 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 2: Maybe he's close to the same strikeouts just due to 449 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 2: a volume of Web, but there's more potential of Web 450 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 2: hurting you for a full year like his one twenty three. 451 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 2: What did over as many innings as he did than 452 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,360 Speaker 2: in Minaga, who would have to be more of the 453 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 2: era side of the home. It's really become a massive 454 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 2: problem from over the years. So that's why I'm leaning 455 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:29,879 Speaker 2: in Minaga over Web. 456 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: You know, you got a stuff plus got a little 457 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: bit of facelift recently and Logan webs change up is 458 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 1: at one oh nine. Now that is his best pitch 459 00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 1: according to Stuff. Is that where you're leaning into that 460 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:43,679 Speaker 1: change up with Web? Or are you going on the 461 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 1: Emanaga side here? 462 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,200 Speaker 3: This is This is amazing because it's like a philosophical question. 463 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 3: I mean, this is this is a there's a path. 464 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: On the road. 465 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 3: These these these pictures are not the same. Oh this 466 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,159 Speaker 3: is Logan Web is a throwback back to you know, 467 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 3: the eighties when we had lower strikeout rates and everybody 468 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,479 Speaker 3: wanted a great change up like he has. And you know, 469 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,719 Speaker 3: Shota is like kind of like where we went with 470 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,880 Speaker 3: the sport after that. You know, high ride for seamer 471 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 3: of a splitter coming off of it and more strikeouts 472 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 3: and homers, and you know, I'm a little surprised. The 473 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 3: whips conversation is interesting because ground botherers do have higher 474 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 3: whips usually, but they're projected for like a difference of 475 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:38,439 Speaker 3: like one one point one ish for for Shota and 476 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 3: like one point one four ish for Webs. So like, 477 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 3: and I could look at last year's number for Web 478 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:47,880 Speaker 3: and say, well, they didn't really have a shortstop all year, 479 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 3: and now they're gonna have Willie Damis, and like the 480 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 3: guy that was their shortstop is going to be much 481 00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 3: better defensively at the second base. This might be a 482 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:58,160 Speaker 3: way better defensive infield, you know, all around. Just with 483 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 3: that that change, and then I just have in terms 484 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:07,119 Speaker 3: of projections, I have a like three point five for 485 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 3: Logan Web and Era and a three point nine three 486 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 3: point eight eight for Showta, So like, I'm going to 487 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 3: take that, and I think that that bulk is where 488 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 3: I get some of those strikeouts back. And sometimes when 489 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 3: you're think of talking about like you know, a roster 490 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 3: slot versus a player, I think about this also, like 491 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 3: if you play in a weekly league and you have 492 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 3: the choice between Logan Web and someone might give up 493 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 3: more homers or a reliever for example, And some people 494 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 3: might say, well, a Logan Web start, you may not 495 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,919 Speaker 3: get more strikeouts than a reliever. The problem is that 496 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,159 Speaker 3: Logan Web goes seven deep a lot, you know, and 497 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,640 Speaker 3: so yes, his strikeout per batter might not be like great, 498 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:49,800 Speaker 3: but in terms of a roster slot for that week, 499 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,240 Speaker 3: you can still expect five or six strikeouts. Can you 500 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 3: expect five or six strikeouts from a reliever that you 501 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 3: put it in there instead? 502 00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:56,959 Speaker 1: I don't know. 503 00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 3: Maybe sometimes not always, Sometimes they get us once, you know. 504 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 3: So in terms of like a roster spot, what you 505 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,199 Speaker 3: can get when you put Logan Web in is a 506 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 3: really good chance to win five or six strikeouts really 507 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 3: low lyra I think that's really dependable. And what I 508 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 3: find also is that there are more sort of health 509 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 3: risks that are super exciting in the top in like 510 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 3: the first ten fifteen than usual, or maybe just just 511 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 3: where the game is headed. Your crochets and your sales. 512 00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,679 Speaker 3: Like those guys, if you started with a crochet, you 513 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 3: should probably back them up with the Logan Web as 514 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 3: opposed to backing up with Showtai Monic. I think because 515 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 3: you're starting to layer risk a little bit. So I 516 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,680 Speaker 3: just love Logan Web in this like grouping of kind 517 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 3: of like Pablo Lopez, Aaron Nola, like, you know, these 518 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 3: guys are going to be pretty good and give you 519 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,959 Speaker 3: a lot of innings and could really back you up 520 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:55,360 Speaker 3: really nicely if you took. 521 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,400 Speaker 1: A risk of your first guy very high floor. Yeah, 522 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 1: like at the grom webpairing. I kind of like that 523 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,640 Speaker 1: if you do something like that, I kind of dig it, Nick, 524 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 1: What do you think I mean? 525 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 5: Oh man, I call it by the way, I moved 526 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 5: Web back and forth multiple times, and I had like 527 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 5: Webin and Minaga close and I think by the end 528 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 5: I had it not too far away. 529 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 2: It is interesting to hear about, right, adamis coming in 530 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 2: at shore. You got Chapman there third two. That does 531 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 2: make me more inclined than again, he's always pretty much 532 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,920 Speaker 2: had this eight hyper nine. It's just like, it's what 533 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 2: Web does. And I don't want to get too optimistic 534 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 2: that Web is going to figure out exactly which what 535 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 2: is pitch mix is last year. 536 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:42,920 Speaker 3: The cutter is good, I think the cutter is good, 537 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 3: and the cutter is going to be That's that's that's 538 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 3: what the upside is. If the cutter is good, I 539 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 3: could see him pushing the strike out right to like 540 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 3: twenty two to twenty three. He's done that before, right, 541 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,640 Speaker 3: So the other aspect is that something I wasn't really 542 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 3: working to my rankings about in Monaga. But I just 543 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,439 Speaker 3: it's just in my head is that your we do 544 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,400 Speaker 3: see Japanese pitchers in their second year be affected by 545 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 3: the increased to workload the previous year, right they And 546 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 3: I didn't want to act on that because I am 547 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 3: actually really optimistic on you know, it's just overall skill set, 548 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,479 Speaker 3: like it just works, this works really well. I'm not 549 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,840 Speaker 3: gonna I don't. I personally don't have that three to nine, 550 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 3: which I get because of the home run rates. But 551 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,280 Speaker 3: even with the amazing season of storr of the year 552 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,159 Speaker 3: that Monaga had last year, it was still a fantastic 553 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 3: run Even after and including that what Niner running game 554 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 3: and all those others, it was still like a three 555 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 3: four year a after that. So including that blow up, 556 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 3: I just think that Managa is just those three pitches work. 557 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 2: That's that's good and that will get over velocity and everything. 558 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 2: It works. 559 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,679 Speaker 3: I think the fast is getible and that his like 560 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 3: brand of high ride fastball is like more and more 561 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:58,639 Speaker 3: gettible for hitters, like they more they now have a 562 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 3: strategy when it comes to ride. 563 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 2: They know what you're doing. 564 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 3: I target at the top half of the ball. I 565 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 3: do this, I had this move, I have this, I 566 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 3: do this. I'm I'm flattered with my swing whatever it is. 567 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 3: I think that they've all figured out coping mechanisms for 568 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 3: that type of fastball, and then if you take away 569 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 3: some of the power of the ride, what you got 570 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 3: left is a ninety one mile on our fastball. 571 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:19,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. 572 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 2: The rule of thumb, I mean, I can't really go 573 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 2: against this, you know, because I think your real thumb 574 00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 2: is do they throw ninety bye? I'm out. It's a 575 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 2: pretty good rule. Oh man, what is webs? It's like 576 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 2: ninety two? Right, ninety two? Ninety three? Yeah? 577 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:39,720 Speaker 1: Okay, who well you managa no, no, no, web. 578 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:41,920 Speaker 2: But it's a sinker, really not. He doesn't throw his 579 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 2: sports anymore. Thankfully he doesn't should not touch it. 580 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 3: Still, it still got about a mile per hour on chota. 581 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 2: Okay. 582 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 1: Also, am I the only one who occasionally in my 583 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 1: head we'll say, Brandon web? Is that just a me thing? 584 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,880 Speaker 2: I'll go to sleep saying it. 585 00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: I just called it. 586 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,800 Speaker 3: Chris Chris Bryant, Kobe Bryan Pond this morning. 587 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,680 Speaker 1: That's right, I MA, that's awesome. Let's keep it going 588 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,120 Speaker 1: and we're gonna lean heavily into injury risk here at 589 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:12,200 Speaker 1: ADP of around eighty six. Max Freed versus Tyler Glass. Now, 590 00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 1: you know you, when we did a show together, the 591 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: same kind of show last year, you listed off all 592 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:18,879 Speaker 1: the things that Max Freed had wrong with him and 593 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,959 Speaker 1: the chances of elbow injuries recurring. He's dealt with four 594 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,159 Speaker 1: arm problems the last couple of seasons. I'm kind of 595 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: worried about him. But then there's Tyler Glass now, who 596 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,639 Speaker 1: doesn't exactly give you that warm and fuzzy feeling. So 597 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 1: if forced to choose between these two, let's call it 598 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 1: the fifth, sixth, seventh round kind of range, depending on 599 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,120 Speaker 1: leagu's siye, who are you leaning with? Between Max Freed 600 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 1: and Tyler Glass? Now? 601 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 3: I have them literally next to each other, and I 602 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,560 Speaker 3: have Glass now one spot ahead. 603 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 1: Yeah. 604 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 3: I just I think there's been the reading between the lines. 605 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,200 Speaker 3: I think there's been good news. And sometimes we're not 606 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 3: doctors and we have to play along and try to 607 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 3: figure these things out. But you know, he went on 608 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 3: a radio show Tyler Glass now did during the playoffs 609 00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 3: and said, yeah, no, everything's fine. And then and then 610 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 3: when he first reported the spring, he said something like Yeah, 611 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 3: it wasn't ever torn or anything. It was just, you know, 612 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 3: all the news has been good so far and I 613 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 3: had and I feel good. So that's and then I 614 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 3: what I can point to is that he was kind 615 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,200 Speaker 3: of I think it was like the twenty first best 616 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:21,120 Speaker 3: starting pitcher last year if you look retroactively, and I 617 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:22,640 Speaker 3: if you look under the hood, he could have done 618 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:24,400 Speaker 3: better than he had last year, like a three four 619 00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,959 Speaker 3: five ERA with all the strikeouts he could have, Like 620 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 3: Sierra says, he deserved a two ninety RA, you know, 621 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,960 Speaker 3: and Sierra's actually a pretty powerful stat for how old 622 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 3: it is and uh it's skill indiactive era on Fangrass 623 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 3: and it's still a pretty pretty powerful, pretty predictive stat 624 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 3: two ninety RA. So if Gosta comes back and only 625 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 3: gives you, only gives you one hundred and thirty five innings, 626 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 3: but this year it's more like the three ten or 627 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 3: the two ninety that he deserved last year, then he's 628 00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 3: going to be better than the twenty first pitcher at 629 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 3: the end of the season and he's going around there. 630 00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 3: So you know, that's where your upside is is same 631 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 3: as last year. Totals wise, with Freed, I do have 632 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,240 Speaker 3: more innings for him, but I have an era that's 633 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 3: projected to be higher like A like you know, a 634 00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:17,320 Speaker 3: third of three point three higher. And I have FREEDA 635 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 3: has never given the strikeout rate that a Glass now does. 636 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 3: So you have to think about that too. Is that 637 00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 3: like if they if you give both the same amount of innings, 638 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:27,520 Speaker 3: you're going to get like twenty fewer strikeouts from from 639 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,440 Speaker 3: Freed And that's a category. 640 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 1: So any ballpark concerns the Yankee Stadium. 641 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 3: I mean the ball flies out of Atlanta to to 642 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 3: some degree. And there's something he's I think he does 643 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 3: have some homer suppression in his arsenal, and I think 644 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 3: it's friendlier to left handed batters in New York and 645 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 3: he's lefty, Like what do you think I think it'll 646 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:53,800 Speaker 3: be all? 647 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm favorable and both they're both inside my 648 00:30:56,040 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 2: top fifteenth and the two spots separating. It goes back 649 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 2: to the initial thing before is do you want are 650 00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:04,520 Speaker 2: you in a shallow in a league that you want 651 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,840 Speaker 2: to go for the quality per game. It might be 652 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 2: a little bit different though with Glass now, because you 653 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 2: might see a six mint rotation, you might see them 654 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 2: skiff a start or so as opposed to just a 655 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:20,440 Speaker 2: flat IL stint, and that has me a little not 656 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 2: as into that as I would want to be for 657 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,480 Speaker 2: Glas now. For that reason, I think Max Freed is 658 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,760 Speaker 2: just massively undervalued. He had a three thirty eight ARRA 659 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 2: last year and everyone goes, oh my god, oh it's terrible, 660 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 2: and that was the highest he's had in I think 661 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:42,080 Speaker 2: ages and maybe his rookie season. He's also someone that 662 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 2: needs to rev up, and we see this every single 663 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 2: April typically, but then he won the IL and then 664 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,840 Speaker 2: he needed a couple of starts to actually get back 665 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 2: to where he was and that's the difference of his 666 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 2: era is really him coming back from the IL and 667 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,560 Speaker 2: reving up again, and that's it's Max Freed. He also 668 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,400 Speaker 2: has room to grow even with this change up that 669 00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 2: used to be there a bit. It lagged behind him 670 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,479 Speaker 2: against rities, also dealing with lefties with a little stranger 671 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 2: last year. Honestly, I think he's just gonna throw more 672 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 2: cutters inside of lefties and sorry not cutters as sinkers 673 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 2: inside of lefties and that should be great. I also 674 00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,240 Speaker 2: want to point out that the i L injury that 675 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,640 Speaker 2: he had, I als think that Max Freed had was inflammation, 676 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 2: not a tear. It wasn't a strain in that time either, 677 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,760 Speaker 2: And the Yankees signing him the way that they did 678 00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,600 Speaker 2: would not be doing that if they felt that this 679 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 2: was actually a ticking time bomb of an elbow injury. 680 00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 2: So I have a lot of faith in this and 681 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 2: I see it as this is such a. 682 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 3: Great way that flexor injury was. It was not a 683 00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 3: strange just better with Freed. The flexor injury was not 684 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 3: a strain, it was it was a arm. 685 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,640 Speaker 2: Elbow inflammation is what I have here. You're talking about 686 00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 2: the one before, the previous Yeah, yeah, the one before 687 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:55,520 Speaker 2: I'm talking about last year's Okay, that was elbow information. 688 00:32:56,200 --> 00:33:00,400 Speaker 2: So I am talking to Stephen Lyman about strains. Strains 689 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,480 Speaker 2: in the past two they heal, and if they're healed, 690 00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,400 Speaker 2: then they're good. We've seen that from Zach Wheeler. We've 691 00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 2: seen that from Zach Allen, and I feel good about 692 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 2: this right now in this way of just what Max 693 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,200 Speaker 2: Free's health is. So I think this is an amazing 694 00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,640 Speaker 2: situation right now. He's on the Yankees, which obviously not 695 00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 2: much different from Atlanta. But this is your like e 696 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,840 Speaker 2: a whip king with you know, strike out an ending 697 00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,480 Speaker 2: like tons of winds. I love this from Max Free 698 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,080 Speaker 2: getting him everywhere I can. It's just kind of do 699 00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 2: I want the upside quality per inning with glasnow more? 700 00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 2: And so I think I have Freed eleven and glassnow 701 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,520 Speaker 2: at thirteen just. 702 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 1: To be Devil's advocate, Like, you know, do the repetitive 703 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 1: injuries to the arm, whether it's strange like however, whatever 704 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 1: the severity is, do the year on year injuries to 705 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 1: the arm combined with the new destination do they maybe 706 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:51,800 Speaker 1: give you some pause? Oh? 707 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:55,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I do. And that did factor in a little bit. 708 00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 3: And so I've had this, I've read this period research 709 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 3: that suggests that that forearm strains are precursors to Tommy John. 710 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,960 Speaker 3: So it's just sort of what we've seen in the marketplace. 711 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,600 Speaker 3: But you know, there's a couple of interesting things about that. 712 00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 3: Is there something underlying in the mechanics that's doing this 713 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 3: that's rather than the actual injury leading to the next thing, 714 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 3: you know what I mean, Like they doing something wrong 715 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,360 Speaker 3: that then leads to TJ rather than the actual injury 716 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:24,160 Speaker 3: leading to the next So I think that's really interesting 717 00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,680 Speaker 3: from linement about you know, what happens once this thing 718 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,040 Speaker 3: is healed. The other aspect of this is like there's 719 00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 3: a philosophical question is like how long does something matter 720 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:39,040 Speaker 3: to you in terms of health? Because we have Zach 721 00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:44,880 Speaker 3: Wheeler to a lot of people's annoyment annoyance. In my rankings, 722 00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:48,240 Speaker 3: I've been using Jeff Zimmermann's health ratings and Zach Wheeler 723 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,480 Speaker 3: has the same health rating. I forget who was there's 724 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,400 Speaker 3: two seventy seven percenters. 725 00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,279 Speaker 2: They were like, yeah, that's a low one though. 726 00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,080 Speaker 3: Seventy seven, Yeah, it's seventy seven is a little bit low. 727 00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,120 Speaker 3: They just thought that's low. Let me see who it 728 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 3: could have been. Got Ryan Pepio at seventy seven, Ronaldo 729 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 3: Lopez at seventy six, Gavin Williams at seventy seven. So yeah, 730 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:11,680 Speaker 3: do you think of Wheelers healthier than those guys? And 731 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:13,880 Speaker 3: I think most people, if you didn't show them anything, 732 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,600 Speaker 3: would say, hey, yeah, yeah, Wheeler's a study's a horse, 733 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:20,320 Speaker 3: he's a guy. But then one of the inputs into 734 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,960 Speaker 3: Zimmerman's thing is have you ever had an arm injury 735 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,319 Speaker 3: or have you ever had dj you know, like, how 736 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,279 Speaker 3: many elbow injuries have you had? Period? And not how 737 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:31,239 Speaker 3: long ago were they? They he does have a little 738 00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,400 Speaker 3: separation where he's like, have you ever had it? And 739 00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:34,839 Speaker 3: then you have had it in the last two years. 740 00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:36,400 Speaker 3: If you had the last two years, it's worse. If 741 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,760 Speaker 3: you've ever had it, it's still in there. So that's 742 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:41,920 Speaker 3: that's what I wonder. How much of that is true? 743 00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,360 Speaker 3: Is it still in there somewhere? Is there something in 744 00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 3: Maxwreeths mechanics that lead that led to that strain that 745 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 3: will lead to something worse later? You know? Is it 746 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:53,000 Speaker 3: still in there somehow even if the thing itself has healed. 747 00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,000 Speaker 3: I don't know the answer to that, and I think 748 00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,239 Speaker 3: that's what makes health forecasting so hard. But since you're 749 00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,279 Speaker 3: comparing him to an other guy who gets hurt a lot, 750 00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,319 Speaker 3: you know, I have a difference in innings of like 751 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,680 Speaker 3: twenty innings. To me, once that happens, I'm I'm like, Okay, 752 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,680 Speaker 3: neither these guys gets an a for me health wise, 753 00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,319 Speaker 3: So I'll just take I'll just take what I think 754 00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:15,520 Speaker 3: will better innings in glass. 755 00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 1: Now, is there something to be said about a picture 756 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,080 Speaker 1: who has just been healthy for so many years then 757 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,200 Speaker 1: they're just kind of due for an injury? There is 758 00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,399 Speaker 1: that just I know it's not analytical. It's not about 759 00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,799 Speaker 1: the speed or about anything like that. But is there 760 00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,359 Speaker 1: something to be said about He's been healthy for six 761 00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,600 Speaker 1: years in a row. Pictures can't stay healthy. He's just due. 762 00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:32,440 Speaker 1: Is that? Is that crazy to say? You know? 763 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 2: The worst thing that we do as analysts is trying 764 00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:40,120 Speaker 2: and figure out health and volume. It's just oh gosh. 765 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:39,840 Speaker 1: You know. 766 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,120 Speaker 2: And at the end of the day, really everybody listening 767 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:46,920 Speaker 2: is go with your gut about it. I sandye al 768 00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,520 Speaker 2: Qatara is just all right, here's a horse. 769 00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,239 Speaker 3: He's a horse's horse, and then he goes down. Verlander 770 00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,000 Speaker 3: pitched so many innings. 771 00:36:55,040 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 2: Right, it's just you can't, you can't, and good luck everyone. 772 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,000 Speaker 3: Generally good though. I think that's good. 773 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 2: We'll be here when you need someone. When they go down, 774 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:09,160 Speaker 2: come talk to us. 775 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,920 Speaker 1: That's fantastic. We're gonna keep it going in a second, 776 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,319 Speaker 1: but first I want to round you guys about our 777 00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:16,799 Speaker 1: Draft Assistant. Use it to make the best decisions during 778 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,239 Speaker 1: your fantasy draft. It connects directly to your draft and 779 00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:22,359 Speaker 1: provides both real time pick suggestions and estimations on which 780 00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:24,879 Speaker 1: players might get taken before your next pick. The Draft 781 00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 1: Assistant fully integrates your customized cheat sheets and suggest picks 782 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,520 Speaker 1: based on your rankings, team build, adp and other factors. 783 00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,359 Speaker 1: Experience a smarter way to draft at fantasypros dot com, 784 00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:38,480 Speaker 1: slash Assistant or on the MLB Draft Wizard app. All right, guys, 785 00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 1: we're gonna be a little bit more rapid fire in 786 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:41,399 Speaker 1: the second half here or else they're going to start 787 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:42,840 Speaker 1: yelling at me for going long on this one. But 788 00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 1: let's go on to Luis Castillo versus Spenser Schwellenbach and 789 00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:47,720 Speaker 1: Nick we'll start with you on this one. 790 00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:52,439 Speaker 4: Oh gosh, okay, I've been I got myself a little 791 00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,600 Speaker 4: bit lower on Schwellenbach talking to Eric Smolski because he said, 792 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,319 Speaker 4: who are the most who are the pictures who are 793 00:37:58,360 --> 00:37:59,440 Speaker 4: most likely to be busts? 794 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:05,560 Speaker 2: It's like, oh damn, Spencer Schollenbach. And I love what 795 00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 2: Schwallenbach does. He has a white arsenal, multiple whip pitches, 796 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:11,640 Speaker 2: throws ninety six. You like that, you know it's ninety six. 797 00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,200 Speaker 2: It's great, but it actually is the more hittable fastball, 798 00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,120 Speaker 2: which is weird. And also, as if, I don't like 799 00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:21,440 Speaker 2: ninety six either, But it's a great situation. And Atlanta's 800 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,399 Speaker 2: gonna go every five days gonna gets some wins. It's 801 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:27,680 Speaker 2: all there. And I'm a big fan of Spencer Swallenbach, 802 00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:30,920 Speaker 2: while with Luis Castillo, it seems so strange to me 803 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:35,200 Speaker 2: to have Nola, Gallon and Castillo outside of my top 804 00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,440 Speaker 2: thirty for the first time ever, just because these are 805 00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,600 Speaker 2: all pitchers to me, who yes, they will be productive 806 00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:46,000 Speaker 2: for your teams. It's just what is the line of Hey, 807 00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,520 Speaker 2: twelve teamer versus fifteen teamer? What kind of whip and 808 00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,839 Speaker 2: earra am I okay? With what kind of risk am 809 00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,320 Speaker 2: I putting myself into them getting worse as opposed to 810 00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:57,760 Speaker 2: be better? And with Castillo, we saw the degrading fastball, 811 00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:00,279 Speaker 2: We've seen his change of just not be the pitch 812 00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,840 Speaker 2: that it used to be. It all has all, it 813 00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,720 Speaker 2: has all the signs of this getting worse before things improve. 814 00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:12,279 Speaker 2: So I have Swallenbach ahead of Castillo. I don't know 815 00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:16,239 Speaker 2: if I love that. I am going to assume that 816 00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,120 Speaker 2: Seattle being the anti Corps is still going to be 817 00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,600 Speaker 2: a thing, so at least you've got that going for you. 818 00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:26,920 Speaker 2: But I just think that Spencer Swellenbach is a super 819 00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,440 Speaker 2: talented arm who has all the tools at his disposal. 820 00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:35,279 Speaker 2: Really good command too, and is just primed to be 821 00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,319 Speaker 2: that fantastic hundred and seventy inning guy that you wanted 822 00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:38,560 Speaker 2: to be. 823 00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:41,759 Speaker 1: Still worries me. The fastball velo has gone down each 824 00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:43,839 Speaker 1: of the last three seasons. The swinging strike rate went 825 00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,160 Speaker 1: way down. I worry a little bit about starting him 826 00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:47,919 Speaker 1: away from home. At home, You're not worried at all, 827 00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:50,759 Speaker 1: but the splits between I mean, all Mariner's pitchers were 828 00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,439 Speaker 1: very drastic home and away last year. You know, any 829 00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,680 Speaker 1: concern about Castillo now as he's into his mid kind 830 00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:00,440 Speaker 1: of thirties versus the up and ascending specter Swellenbach. 831 00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:07,080 Speaker 3: Oh, as an older man myself, Yes, I'm concerned about that. 832 00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:11,920 Speaker 3: But you know, one thing that was really strange about 833 00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:19,080 Speaker 3: his season last year was that he for some reason 834 00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:25,160 Speaker 3: started throwing the slider softly. And I don't know, I 835 00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,000 Speaker 3: think he actually even said something that like somebody told 836 00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:31,160 Speaker 3: him it would be better that way, and so he 837 00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,480 Speaker 3: kind of opened the season with a slider in the 838 00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:37,120 Speaker 3: eighty fives and eighty five is kind of a magic 839 00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:41,560 Speaker 3: number where all sliders are better after over eighty five, 840 00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,319 Speaker 3: And I don't really know why he was doing that, 841 00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:46,800 Speaker 3: And at some point he started throwing it hard again, 842 00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,960 Speaker 3: and he was doing it more sort of eighty eight, 843 00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,000 Speaker 3: eighty seven, eighty eight like he used to. And if 844 00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:55,120 Speaker 3: you just kind of cut the season off where he 845 00:40:55,200 --> 00:41:02,200 Speaker 3: started throwing the slider harder, you get better numbers overall. 846 00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:08,040 Speaker 3: You get a what is this here, a twenty four 847 00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:11,719 Speaker 3: percent k rate, you know, and you get a three 848 00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:16,040 Speaker 3: five ERA. And I think that, like just generally he's 849 00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,880 Speaker 3: better with that, with that side of the way it 850 00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:22,320 Speaker 3: was he figured that part out. I'd like his arsenal. 851 00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:24,279 Speaker 3: I know his change up isn't as good, but I 852 00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,920 Speaker 3: think he still has change up sinker in him. And 853 00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:31,520 Speaker 3: he also has four seam slider. I think he's got 854 00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:34,279 Speaker 3: such a high floor because of his park. I have 855 00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:38,920 Speaker 3: him comfortably ahead of schwan Bach. I don't know where necessarily. 856 00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:42,640 Speaker 3: Maybe the three seven five RA projection for Schwambach is off, 857 00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,680 Speaker 3: but that's the number I've got, And so schwam Black 858 00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:51,160 Speaker 3: is more, you know, around Hunter Green for me, which 859 00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:55,479 Speaker 3: is love them, excited about them, but down a little 860 00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,520 Speaker 3: bit lower, whereas Luis Castillo is back in that Pablo 861 00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:02,680 Speaker 3: Lopez logan web area where I'm like, this is really 862 00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,640 Speaker 3: bankable innings. I just think it's it's it's again. It's 863 00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:09,120 Speaker 3: a floor versus ceiling argument again, like Nick has been saying, 864 00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:12,680 Speaker 3: it's right, the smaller league, the less you care about floor. 865 00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:16,879 Speaker 3: My biases are towards deeper leagues. I do care about floor. 866 00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,399 Speaker 3: So that's that that I'll show up in my rankings. 867 00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,799 Speaker 1: It's totally fair. Let's keep it going. And this one 868 00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,560 Speaker 1: is also more of a younger guy versus an older 869 00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,800 Speaker 1: guy type of argument. Grayson Rodriguez and Sonny Gray. Grayson 870 00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:32,440 Speaker 1: Rodriguez hasn't really turned into that ace level pitcher like 871 00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:34,040 Speaker 1: a lot of people thought he was going to, at 872 00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,799 Speaker 1: least not initially. Still absolutely potential for it, but he 873 00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:40,520 Speaker 1: hasn't quite lived up to expectations. Sonny Gray just had 874 00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,200 Speaker 1: one of his best seasons at age of thirty five 875 00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:45,080 Speaker 1: or thirty six. He hit the thirty percent strikeout right. 876 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,200 Speaker 1: Nick and I were talking about this before we started recording, 877 00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,239 Speaker 1: just really fantastic stuff. It's kind of a tricky one 878 00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,879 Speaker 1: going right around pick one hundred and five. This one 879 00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,560 Speaker 1: we will start with Eno. I've probably mixed it up 880 00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:57,120 Speaker 1: who I'm starting with on each one here, but let's 881 00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,520 Speaker 1: we'll go back to Eno for this one. Spccer. 882 00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:02,399 Speaker 3: We're supposed to be faster too. We're supposed to be fast, 883 00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,760 Speaker 3: all right, So this early two for me, it's super 884 00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,160 Speaker 3: super easy. I want Grayson Rodriguez. I can't believe that 885 00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,400 Speaker 3: they're actually next to each other in the rankings. I 886 00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:11,399 Speaker 3: don't know this. It actually sort of boggles my mind 887 00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,799 Speaker 3: a little bit. I do think that what happened with 888 00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:16,520 Speaker 3: Sunny Gray is that he started throwing that sweeper like 889 00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:19,439 Speaker 3: forty percent of the time so much, so much, and 890 00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:21,960 Speaker 3: what we saw in the playoffs, or it was the 891 00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,800 Speaker 3: playoffs last year or just the end of the season 892 00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,720 Speaker 3: or the playoffs before, we've seen We've seen batters start 893 00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:29,759 Speaker 3: to get better at that. We've seen the batters get 894 00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:33,080 Speaker 3: better at sweepers across the league generally every year they 895 00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:35,480 Speaker 3: reach at them less and they swing at them more 896 00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,000 Speaker 3: on the strike zone, and so they're getting used more 897 00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,359 Speaker 3: used to the sweeper shape. So I think that's going 898 00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:42,439 Speaker 3: to happen for him this year. I think that like, yes, 899 00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,560 Speaker 3: it is this one great shining duel he has, which 900 00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,440 Speaker 3: is this amazing breaking ball, but everything around it is 901 00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:51,279 Speaker 3: not as great anymore. He's getting older. Grayson Rodriguez has 902 00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:53,520 Speaker 3: has come to camp with the sweeper. The one thing 903 00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:56,080 Speaker 3: he was missing was something that got right. He's out. 904 00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,040 Speaker 3: He has reverse splits because he has a great change up. 905 00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:00,200 Speaker 3: But you're telling me, I now have a guy the 906 00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,799 Speaker 3: four seam, a sinker. He can maybe even bring the 907 00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,200 Speaker 3: cutter back in. Gotta have a sweeper, and he has 908 00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:07,760 Speaker 3: a plus change. That's a big wide arsenal with Velo 909 00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:10,560 Speaker 3: with command. I think he's you know, I think last 910 00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:12,239 Speaker 3: year when we did this, we had a question of like, 911 00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,440 Speaker 3: who's somebody that's outside of the top twenty five that 912 00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:19,120 Speaker 3: could jump in. That's Grace and Rodriguez from me. In fact, 913 00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:21,839 Speaker 3: he's in my top twenty five because I think this 914 00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:23,960 Speaker 3: is the year for him. I think he's just on 915 00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:25,440 Speaker 3: the cusp of a breakout. 916 00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:29,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that. I mean, Grayson Arreganz doesn't 917 00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:31,000 Speaker 2: need to have that cutter. He used to throw one, 918 00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,319 Speaker 2: but it was like eighty six. It wasn't like a 919 00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:36,720 Speaker 2: hard cutter. And for an elite extension guy like Grasa Arriguez, 920 00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:38,799 Speaker 2: it throws ninety six plus. I think he throws ninety eight, 921 00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:43,560 Speaker 2: like what works out that you know, ninety three or 922 00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,319 Speaker 2: something and just just slightly different to get that strip 923 00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,080 Speaker 2: pick because that's what's happening with Grayson Rodriguez. He doesn't 924 00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:51,799 Speaker 2: have reliable strip pitches outside of that fastball, and the 925 00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,279 Speaker 2: fastball should be missing all these bats, but it's not 926 00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:56,160 Speaker 2: because the guys are just going up there and looking 927 00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,360 Speaker 2: for the fastballs. Why this changeup that is not located 928 00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,560 Speaker 2: well right now to lefties is doing so well because 929 00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:04,680 Speaker 2: they're just selling out for that heater a ton and 930 00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,120 Speaker 2: having something that's a little bit more deceptive at the 931 00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:09,400 Speaker 2: near velocity ban like a sinker. I would say against 932 00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,160 Speaker 2: right handers, two is going to do wonders for him. 933 00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,400 Speaker 2: And I have to imagine, even though the cutter is 934 00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,840 Speaker 2: the legendary thing of the Baltimore orioles Bane, I guess whatever, 935 00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:20,960 Speaker 2: over the years where they banned them from throwing them, 936 00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:25,080 Speaker 2: I think they're a little bit more more. They liked 937 00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,239 Speaker 2: it a lot more than they used to. Now with 938 00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:29,960 Speaker 2: Sunny Gray. What's crazy is you can look at put 939 00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,480 Speaker 2: away rates just for strikeouts. He had a thirty percent 940 00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:34,520 Speaker 2: strike out right out of nowhere, and you can just 941 00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:36,839 Speaker 2: look at how efficient in a two strike count, how 942 00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,680 Speaker 2: often does this pitch strike the batter route That is 943 00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:42,000 Speaker 2: a putaway rate. Let me see like twenty five percent. 944 00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,040 Speaker 2: It's like, oh man, that's really good. Good job. Twenty 945 00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,440 Speaker 2: eight percent on the sweeper last year you got underneath lefties. 946 00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:50,719 Speaker 2: But the sinker to four seamers had forty percent. And 947 00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:52,759 Speaker 2: it's not like he thok like five of them like 948 00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,759 Speaker 2: he did backdoor sinkers to right handers, and a forty 949 00:45:55,800 --> 00:46:00,280 Speaker 2: percent rate is just absurd. There's I've never actually seen 950 00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:02,520 Speaker 2: that on a regularly used pitch. 951 00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:05,160 Speaker 3: So that's going to be pitching backwards in a way 952 00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:07,480 Speaker 3: like he's. Yeah, they're all keyed in on the sweeper 953 00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:09,439 Speaker 3: because he's throwing it so often, so he's and then. 954 00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:12,319 Speaker 2: Van there comes to the sinker back door and it's like, oh, 955 00:46:12,320 --> 00:46:14,440 Speaker 2: that's going to be a thing now, okay, cool, great, 956 00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,040 Speaker 2: we're going to change this and I'll let it be 957 00:46:16,160 --> 00:46:19,960 Speaker 2: forty percent called strike strike three here, So yes, you're 958 00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,279 Speaker 2: gonna see that put away rate get worse, which means 959 00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,160 Speaker 2: the strike every gets worse, which means Sunny Gray is 960 00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:27,919 Speaker 2: and that great and then yeah, Chris is gonna be ace. 961 00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:31,239 Speaker 1: So can't wait unanimous. I mean I came in kind 962 00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,080 Speaker 1: of thinking it's close, but you guys have kind of 963 00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,239 Speaker 1: talked me talked me off the sunny Gray ledge. I 964 00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:37,760 Speaker 1: think I am going to be more on the Grayson's side. 965 00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:39,759 Speaker 1: I look at the career numbers and I think they 966 00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:41,400 Speaker 1: like they leave a bit to be desired. If like 967 00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:42,919 Speaker 1: the average person is going to look and say, okay, 968 00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:44,920 Speaker 1: it's a four eleven era is a one twenty nine 969 00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:46,640 Speaker 1: career whip. I think the average person will be kind 970 00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:48,520 Speaker 1: of put off if they're not digging deep. But that's 971 00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:50,319 Speaker 1: why we do these shows. Ladies and gentlemen. Make sure 972 00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,920 Speaker 1: you're subscribing so you can get all the greatest intel. 973 00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:55,160 Speaker 1: Let's keep it going though, and we're gonna talk about 974 00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:57,600 Speaker 1: a couple of guys who have switched jerseys over the years, 975 00:46:58,000 --> 00:46:59,840 Speaker 1: guys that have at various times both been close to 976 00:46:59,880 --> 00:47:02,040 Speaker 1: my heart, and that's Robbie Ray and Kevin Gosman. 977 00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,279 Speaker 2: It's far and away Robbi Ray to me, I think 978 00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:08,480 Speaker 2: he's a much better pitcher since since with the Jay's 979 00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,880 Speaker 2: and then going off to Seattle. I mean, he's been stellar. 980 00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,080 Speaker 2: He came back from Tommy John last year, had like 981 00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:18,799 Speaker 2: one or two weird starts, but otherwise was great. And yeah, 982 00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:20,840 Speaker 2: he's gonna get all these strikeouts. It's a good situation. 983 00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:24,600 Speaker 2: In San Francisco, like Robbie Ray's what you want Kevin 984 00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:28,560 Speaker 2: Gosman to be. Like, we're hoping Kevin Gosman's like Robbie Ray, 985 00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:32,360 Speaker 2: and he won't be. So I'm going Robbie Ray. 986 00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:37,839 Speaker 3: All day here, like perfect no notes I had. You know, 987 00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:42,200 Speaker 3: Goswin has almost a run higher Sierra, and he had 988 00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,799 Speaker 3: a ten point five percent swinging strike rate last year 989 00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:47,839 Speaker 3: and Ray had a sixteen percent swinging strike rate. I 990 00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:51,520 Speaker 3: know which number I prefer. So the fastball is also 991 00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,360 Speaker 3: for Ray is going in the right direction. He gained 992 00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:57,840 Speaker 3: some ticks back after the ve though, after the surgery, 993 00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:02,840 Speaker 3: whereas Gossmin's is just dropping and dropping dropping. At some point, 994 00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:06,960 Speaker 3: I think he may even have like a disastrous season, 995 00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:10,480 Speaker 3: like in terms of disaster season percentage, like I think 996 00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:12,880 Speaker 3: Gosman's is higher the latest that for me. 997 00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:17,200 Speaker 1: Know, let's keep it going now with just a couple 998 00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,440 Speaker 1: more left and another two guys who IM really invested 999 00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:21,719 Speaker 1: in both of them this year to be honest, and 1000 00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:24,960 Speaker 1: that's Zach Efflin and Brandon Fought, both both going around 1001 00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:28,279 Speaker 1: one eighty five to one ninety range. You know, let's 1002 00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:30,879 Speaker 1: start with you on this one. Brandon Fought the young 1003 00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:34,040 Speaker 1: and ascending guy who the underlying numbers are very good, 1004 00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:36,200 Speaker 1: Versus Zach Efflin, who's maybe a little bit boring but 1005 00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,160 Speaker 1: maybe a little bit more reliable. You have a preference 1006 00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:38,919 Speaker 1: between the two of them. 1007 00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:44,520 Speaker 3: I'm taking neither right now. 1008 00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:46,160 Speaker 2: I'm not. 1009 00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:51,000 Speaker 3: Versus the board. I'm either shopping in other places or 1010 00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,440 Speaker 3: I don't know. I haven't. I have zero shares of 1011 00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:57,400 Speaker 3: them right now. And the problem for me is Brandon 1012 00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:00,680 Speaker 3: Fott still doesn't have an approach versus lefties that I 1013 00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:05,000 Speaker 3: that I trust. I keep waiting for something he needs 1014 00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:06,880 Speaker 3: to add something. He did add the sinker, and that 1015 00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,320 Speaker 3: made him great against Righty's. He's kind of a sinker 1016 00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:13,239 Speaker 3: sweeper guy against Righty's. Against lefties, he's just throwing the 1017 00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,200 Speaker 3: kitchen sink and hoping it works. And I don't. I don't. 1018 00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:17,919 Speaker 3: I don't know that it's going to be any better 1019 00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:22,520 Speaker 3: this year. I if he really came out and was like, oh, guys, 1020 00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:25,400 Speaker 3: you've got to see my cutter, I think I would 1021 00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:29,200 Speaker 3: listen because that that could that could change things for him. 1022 00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:31,719 Speaker 3: If he like was like I'm gonna rea, I'm gonna 1023 00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:35,279 Speaker 3: emphasize my curve, I might listen because it's his Chaine 1024 00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:36,040 Speaker 3: Up's not very good. 1025 00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:36,600 Speaker 1: Uh. 1026 00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:42,480 Speaker 3: Eflyn is a bad fastball, older guy that is just 1027 00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:45,200 Speaker 3: trying to dance all around his breaking balls, and like 1028 00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:46,680 Speaker 3: he wants all he wants to do is throw his 1029 00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:48,680 Speaker 3: breaking ball. But he has to throw the fastball enough. 1030 00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:53,680 Speaker 3: And I think those guys the disaster percentage again, you know, 1031 00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:58,440 Speaker 3: is there because at some point they just ignore the 1032 00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:02,520 Speaker 3: fastball and start hitting the sliders, you know, And he's 1033 00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:04,680 Speaker 3: kind of close to that line. I feel like where 1034 00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:07,239 Speaker 3: they're just going to stop paying attention to his fastball. 1035 00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:12,600 Speaker 3: Any case, neither one of them has like standouts in 1036 00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:16,480 Speaker 3: terms of projections or arsenal mixes or anything that kind 1037 00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,000 Speaker 3: of makes me want to take them. 1038 00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:18,520 Speaker 1: They would. 1039 00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:20,560 Speaker 3: I would take them if they fell to me, And 1040 00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:22,840 Speaker 3: in that case, I would prefer I guess fought because 1041 00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,680 Speaker 3: he's younger. Something could go right. Fastball is a little 1042 00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:25,960 Speaker 3: bit better. 1043 00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:27,799 Speaker 1: It's interesting, thoughts. Seems to be like kind of an 1044 00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:29,600 Speaker 1: industry darling this year. I've seen him a on a 1045 00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:32,279 Speaker 1: lot of sleeper lists. But it doesn't seem like either 1046 00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:34,600 Speaker 1: of you guys agreed. Nick, you don't, You're shicking your head. 1047 00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:38,000 Speaker 2: No, There's so many reasons why I love this man. 1048 00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:41,200 Speaker 2: And Alice was so ready for him to, like when 1049 00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:42,919 Speaker 2: we talked about him last week, to be like, oh gosh, 1050 00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:43,840 Speaker 2: you li Fought, don't you? 1051 00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:48,399 Speaker 3: Because Nord But. 1052 00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:51,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the same exact thing I've just he's a 1053 00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:54,000 Speaker 2: guy who's who can get really good command at times, 1054 00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:56,840 Speaker 2: get into that rhythm and just lowcate this perfectly in 1055 00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:58,600 Speaker 2: that one perfectly and it's great and he goes in 1056 00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:00,960 Speaker 2: these little stretches there and goes, well this. It reminds 1057 00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:04,000 Speaker 2: me of Jorn Montgomery then of just Jorn Montgomery would 1058 00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,359 Speaker 2: have these moments and then like Okay, he's great now, 1059 00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:10,400 Speaker 2: no no, no, hold hold on, he stills kind of a 1060 00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:12,520 Speaker 2: lot of problems that he still hasn't quite figured out right, 1061 00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:16,480 Speaker 2: And yeah, until Fought finds a proper weapon against left handers, 1062 00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:20,799 Speaker 2: yeah you're gonna have some problems there. I both I 1063 00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:23,160 Speaker 2: have both of them underneath my top eighty, believe it 1064 00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:26,200 Speaker 2: or not. It's also because in twelve Teamers, the way 1065 00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:29,120 Speaker 2: it's structured for me is at fifty to fifty five 1066 00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,239 Speaker 2: is like, these are guys I'm not dropping the entire year, 1067 00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:34,200 Speaker 2: like I'm drafting this, I'm not dropping them. Then after 1068 00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:36,879 Speaker 2: that for the next like twenty or so is all 1069 00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:40,640 Speaker 2: about ceiling. It's just about what who do I think 1070 00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:43,840 Speaker 2: is possible to be amazing for my team and not 1071 00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,320 Speaker 2: dropped ever. And I can also make a quick decision 1072 00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:49,360 Speaker 2: on them in the season. I can know in the 1073 00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:51,440 Speaker 2: first week or two and maybe even before the season 1074 00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:53,319 Speaker 2: starts that I am. 1075 00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:56,719 Speaker 3: Wanted to or not going to be decision making exactly. 1076 00:51:56,800 --> 00:52:00,560 Speaker 2: So they're after that group. So I'm putting them outside 1077 00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:03,200 Speaker 2: of that easy decision category because I don't think we're 1078 00:52:03,200 --> 00:52:06,080 Speaker 2: gonna see that from Thought, and with Eflyn, I have 1079 00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:10,120 Speaker 2: slightly higher because I do think that Eflyn will be 1080 00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:14,080 Speaker 2: valuable as a win guy for the Orioles. Like he's not. 1081 00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:18,080 Speaker 2: I think he's a Toby. He'll be fine, you know. 1082 00:52:18,280 --> 00:52:20,800 Speaker 2: And I think a lot of teams, especially in twelve teamers, 1083 00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,919 Speaker 2: if you draft e Flyn, you probably aren't gonna drop him. 1084 00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:26,000 Speaker 2: While with Thought is gonna have like a series of 1085 00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:28,799 Speaker 2: three games you just go what is this? What is this? 1086 00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:30,680 Speaker 2: And you're gonna rage quitting. 1087 00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:32,319 Speaker 3: Or you know, he's gonna make a lot of people 1088 00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:34,120 Speaker 3: look smart by starting the season with that. 1089 00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:37,560 Speaker 2: I just I just so I don't know, maybe we're 1090 00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,040 Speaker 2: gonna be looking super dumb and thoughts off. So I'm 1091 00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:42,880 Speaker 2: gonna be the greatest thing ever, But I'm not. 1092 00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:44,400 Speaker 1: I'm not. I think for me, I'm definitely more interested 1093 00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:46,080 Speaker 1: in e Flyn and it comes down to just whip. 1094 00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:49,000 Speaker 1: I'm really focused on Whip. The last three years, the 1095 00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:51,840 Speaker 1: whips are under one twenty in every season. As I 1096 00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:54,160 Speaker 1: pulled him up here one fifteen, one oh two, one twelve. 1097 00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:56,960 Speaker 1: The stuff is about average. It's a good team. I 1098 00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,719 Speaker 1: don't think he's amazing, but I think it's like an 1099 00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:02,279 Speaker 1: SP five or six. I think I'm more interested than 1100 00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:05,200 Speaker 1: you guys are personally fought. I think it's just that's 1101 00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:05,920 Speaker 1: interesting that. 1102 00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:08,520 Speaker 2: You can grind out a start whip. 1103 00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:14,120 Speaker 3: Whip is also underrated. When I first started, Whip was 1104 00:53:14,160 --> 00:53:16,480 Speaker 3: my was my darling. You know. That's how That's how 1105 00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:19,759 Speaker 3: I spotted the starting pitchers back in two thousand and 1106 00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:22,160 Speaker 3: two in my first fantasy draft, I was using whip 1107 00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:25,440 Speaker 3: to identify the sleepers, and then John Legaza, who writes 1108 00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,200 Speaker 3: at The Athletic, recently found that whip actually is one 1109 00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:32,000 Speaker 3: of the better predictive stats. Still, So I mean, what 1110 00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:33,400 Speaker 3: do you what are you trying to do? You're trying 1111 00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,600 Speaker 3: not to give up walks and hints in an inning. 1112 00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:37,560 Speaker 3: You know, probably if you're good at that, you're good. 1113 00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:38,360 Speaker 3: You're a good picture. 1114 00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:41,200 Speaker 1: The strikeouts aren't going to blow you away. It's not amazing, 1115 00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:43,640 Speaker 1: but I think you can stabilize some of the some 1116 00:53:43,640 --> 00:53:45,160 Speaker 1: of the whips later on. But we'll have to revisit 1117 00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,239 Speaker 1: this one later on. If I'm betting on this, you 1118 00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:49,920 Speaker 1: guys are probably right, but I'm gonna I'm gonna still 1119 00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:51,000 Speaker 1: draft that one here and there. 1120 00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:52,799 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think we're both on the same 1121 00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:56,960 Speaker 2: page or a better. It's just not really something we're 1122 00:53:57,000 --> 00:53:57,680 Speaker 2: not going to target. 1123 00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:04,439 Speaker 3: I have thought I had, yeah, but I don't think. 1124 00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:06,200 Speaker 3: I don't think people are drafting them. I mean, I've 1125 00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:08,040 Speaker 3: fought in the like at fifty. 1126 00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:09,840 Speaker 2: So it's probably not yeah, right exactly. 1127 00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:11,799 Speaker 3: I was gonna be drafted off of my rankings. 1128 00:54:12,120 --> 00:54:14,640 Speaker 1: Let's finish it off with one more, a couple more 1129 00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:18,239 Speaker 1: darlings of mine, Christopher Sanchez and Ryan Pepio. There was 1130 00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:20,319 Speaker 1: some talk about Sanchez adding a pitch. I want to 1131 00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:22,480 Speaker 1: say it was a cutter that change up, especially in 1132 00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:25,080 Speaker 1: that stuff. Plus update looks really really good, you know, 1133 00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:27,880 Speaker 1: and I think that he's just a really good pitcher 1134 00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:30,879 Speaker 1: and a good situation. Pepio. I don't like him as much, 1135 00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:32,920 Speaker 1: but somebody that I still landed on here and there. 1136 00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:35,359 Speaker 1: I think the skills are still very good for both 1137 00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:37,319 Speaker 1: of them. Really, But Nick, let's start with you on 1138 00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,319 Speaker 1: this one. I think Sanchez peaked your interest a little bit. 1139 00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:40,600 Speaker 1: I think I've seen you tweet a couple of things 1140 00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:42,640 Speaker 1: about him. Is that your lead here? 1141 00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:45,400 Speaker 2: Well, I mean I am excited that he's throwing a 1142 00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:48,880 Speaker 2: cutter because he needs one badly. He throws sinkers just like, 1143 00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,520 Speaker 2: ah whatever, he's the fast ball and I'm just like, dude, 1144 00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:53,759 Speaker 2: he can't. He can't do that. And have you know 1145 00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:56,120 Speaker 2: you're gonna have that one twenty whip again if you 1146 00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:58,160 Speaker 2: do that, because you're gonna have a much higher hit 1147 00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:00,359 Speaker 2: for nine. Oh wait, hold on a second. That sink 1148 00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:03,560 Speaker 2: of that as a massive ICR to right handers. Maybe 1149 00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:05,239 Speaker 2: if you throw that as a cutter instead and you 1150 00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:07,239 Speaker 2: can still have this very effective change up, like an 1151 00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:09,399 Speaker 2: amazing one, and then you have a cutter in said 1152 00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:11,760 Speaker 2: that gets out instead of the sinker that is very hittable. 1153 00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:13,719 Speaker 2: That makes sense to me. Also, I love the fact 1154 00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:16,640 Speaker 2: that Christopher Sanchez moved from outside to inside against lefties 1155 00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:18,960 Speaker 2: with that sinker last year. Yes, he was thrown away 1156 00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:22,320 Speaker 2: to lefties with a sinker with a super like twenty 1157 00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:24,920 Speaker 2: inch horizontal and trying to do cult strikes back door 1158 00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:26,440 Speaker 2: and said jamming them and it drove me up the 1159 00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:31,600 Speaker 2: wall and he changed it. That's great. I'm really torn 1160 00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:36,200 Speaker 2: because Ryan Pepio, to me, I think he's just so good. 1161 00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:39,239 Speaker 2: I think that fastball, I know the trop makes four 1162 00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:41,600 Speaker 2: seamers better and he's not going to be in that. 1163 00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,799 Speaker 2: And also the human weather is going to make the 1164 00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:47,160 Speaker 2: Nikey dimensions a little bit worse for pitchers that does 1165 00:55:47,160 --> 00:55:51,880 Speaker 2: in New York. But oh, it's such a good fastball. 1166 00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:55,439 Speaker 2: And the change up was an eighty grave pitch coming up, 1167 00:55:55,880 --> 00:55:57,919 Speaker 2: and then he lost the feel of it, and then 1168 00:55:58,120 --> 00:56:00,680 Speaker 2: he has it every so often for the most Brasil 1169 00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:03,440 Speaker 2: has it. And a slider I think is fantastic too, 1170 00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:05,560 Speaker 2: Like he has the three pitch mix with old sever 1171 00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:08,120 Speaker 2: Aino that I always really want to see guys have, 1172 00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:12,239 Speaker 2: and he just needs more time to get comfortable with it. 1173 00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:15,520 Speaker 2: And I think there's a very legitimate top twenty upside 1174 00:56:15,520 --> 00:56:19,239 Speaker 2: from Ryan Pepio. It's just it's not a good situation 1175 00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:22,160 Speaker 2: I think for him, while Sanchez is just so much safer. 1176 00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:23,920 Speaker 2: You know, he's going to get wins up the lazoo. 1177 00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:25,840 Speaker 2: You know he's gonna go deep into games. You know 1178 00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:27,840 Speaker 2: he's gonna have a Johnny Goodie, Right, he should have 1179 00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:29,839 Speaker 2: a better whip. If that's a cutter, Is he gonna 1180 00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:33,920 Speaker 2: have a twenty percent carry? Maybe? I hope not, but 1181 00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:36,640 Speaker 2: I you know, it could be better now with that cutter. Right, 1182 00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:39,840 Speaker 2: So I want to say Sanchez for deeper leagues and 1183 00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:42,919 Speaker 2: then Pepio for shallower leagues. But you know you can 1184 00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:44,320 Speaker 2: decide for all of us. 1185 00:56:44,920 --> 00:56:48,279 Speaker 3: I'm like fully in on Pepio, like I have. I 1186 00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:51,799 Speaker 3: have shares. I think I've done like five drafts and 1187 00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:55,640 Speaker 3: I have four shares. Yeah, so I'm all over Pepio 1188 00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:59,480 Speaker 3: where he is. If he if he gets you know, 1189 00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:02,279 Speaker 3: in Pa did, maybe i'lso have a hard time with him. 1190 00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:06,120 Speaker 3: But right now I do see that like stuff inflation 1191 00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:08,000 Speaker 3: going away, that could be a problem. But he had 1192 00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:09,920 Speaker 3: a one O eight stuff plus on the four seam, 1193 00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:12,080 Speaker 3: So if it's like one O three, that's still better 1194 00:57:12,120 --> 00:57:15,040 Speaker 3: than most starters four seams. So I think it's a 1195 00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:18,880 Speaker 3: really good pick. And I think, I don't know, maybe 1196 00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:20,280 Speaker 3: he does go in and out of the change up, 1197 00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:22,760 Speaker 3: but it is that was his bread and butter coming up. 1198 00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:25,320 Speaker 3: So I have confidency I'm gonna give him that change 1199 00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:27,920 Speaker 3: up and give him an elite change up. And then 1200 00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:31,240 Speaker 3: he really developed like a good hard gyro slider. It 1201 00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:33,840 Speaker 3: was really important to him because he's a little bit 1202 00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:37,120 Speaker 3: like I forget we were talking about Grace and Rodriguez, 1203 00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:39,920 Speaker 3: where he doesn't have great command of any of his pitches. 1204 00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:42,360 Speaker 3: And then if you if he gets behind. Before he 1205 00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:44,240 Speaker 3: had the hard gyroslider, he had to go to the 1206 00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:47,040 Speaker 3: four seam, so you the hitter would anticipate, oh, I 1207 00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:49,080 Speaker 3: know what pitch is coming. It's gonna be the four seam. 1208 00:57:49,440 --> 00:57:51,400 Speaker 3: And if it's in the zone and got spanked, and 1209 00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:52,960 Speaker 3: if it was out of his zone, they took it 1210 00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:55,480 Speaker 3: so they knew what pitch was coming. Now with the 1211 00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:58,160 Speaker 3: hard gyro slider, he can he has multiple pitches he 1212 00:57:58,200 --> 00:57:59,920 Speaker 3: can go to when he needs a strike. I think 1213 00:58:00,040 --> 00:58:04,040 Speaker 3: it's an amazing repertoire of like this hard sort of gyroslider, 1214 00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:08,000 Speaker 3: cutter thing, great four seam, great change up, bigger slider, 1215 00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:11,919 Speaker 3: bigger like slower breaking ball, so it's a four pitch mix. 1216 00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:14,760 Speaker 3: The command rose. I think you're in his rearview mirror. 1217 00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:17,200 Speaker 3: I think he's going to ascend into himself this year 1218 00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:18,960 Speaker 3: where this is like it's a little bit like Grayson, 1219 00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:21,320 Speaker 3: where it's like he's shown us the little parts. He's 1220 00:58:21,360 --> 00:58:24,480 Speaker 3: got all the stuff and everything looks pretty good. And 1221 00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:26,920 Speaker 3: for what it's worth, has the innings now to kind 1222 00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:28,920 Speaker 3: of come out and do one hundred and seventy you know, 1223 00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:30,720 Speaker 3: both these guys can come out and give us one 1224 00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:33,680 Speaker 3: hundred and seventy five innings, be in the mix, get 1225 00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:35,800 Speaker 3: cy young boats. This is how I think of it. 1226 00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:38,040 Speaker 3: I think they have that type of talent. So I'm 1227 00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:40,160 Speaker 3: all over reput and I don't mean to say anything 1228 00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:42,040 Speaker 3: bad about Sanchez, but Sanchez to me is like a 1229 00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:45,200 Speaker 3: Sandial Contra, which is great. It's a Sandale Contra startup kid. 1230 00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:48,480 Speaker 3: It's really good, but that doesn't come with that top 1231 00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:51,400 Speaker 3: end strikeout rate and on the front end. So until 1232 00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:54,960 Speaker 3: he shows me that you know that next step in 1233 00:58:55,040 --> 00:58:57,040 Speaker 3: terms of strikeouts, even getting it to twenty three or 1234 00:58:57,040 --> 00:59:00,160 Speaker 3: twenty four percent, that's when I think he had It's 1235 00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:03,560 Speaker 3: like ace like upside right now. Right now, it's it's 1236 00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:06,320 Speaker 3: Sandy in a much worse park, you know, than than 1237 00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:09,520 Speaker 3: Sandy had back in the day. Sandy, without necessarily knowing 1238 00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,320 Speaker 3: Sandy was like, oh, you might have a bad strike out, right, 1239 00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:14,120 Speaker 3: but he's gonna give me two hundred and ten innings, 1240 00:59:14,120 --> 00:59:17,160 Speaker 3: so I still get some good strikeouts, you know. Yeah, 1241 00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:20,360 Speaker 3: I don't know if you give Christopher Sanchez that yet. 1242 00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:22,760 Speaker 3: So I like them both, but Pepio is the guy 1243 00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:23,280 Speaker 3: I really love. 1244 00:59:24,520 --> 00:59:27,360 Speaker 2: We're in on Zandy al Kintar, right, yeah, I. 1245 00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:30,560 Speaker 1: Mean, especially after the other day ninety ninety nine. I mean, 1246 00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:32,640 Speaker 1: I hope the price doesn't jack up six rounds. But 1247 00:59:32,680 --> 00:59:35,760 Speaker 1: I've drafted I think I have them on four teams 1248 00:59:35,760 --> 00:59:38,120 Speaker 1: this year out of like I don't know, I'm a degenerate. 1249 00:59:38,160 --> 00:59:39,840 Speaker 1: I've drafted a bunch of gladiators and stuff. But I 1250 00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:42,120 Speaker 1: think I've drafted Sandy four times. It's like a one 1251 00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:45,200 Speaker 1: sixty eightyp. I mean, if it doesn't work out, okay, 1252 00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:47,840 Speaker 1: but if it does work o hell, he's probably gonna 1253 00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:48,200 Speaker 1: get trade. 1254 00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:51,080 Speaker 3: But as as with Sanchez, like with both of them, 1255 00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:53,400 Speaker 3: they're you know, if you're topping out a twenty percent, 1256 00:59:53,600 --> 00:59:56,640 Speaker 3: then you like Logan web is Loggi Wag was ranking 1257 00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:59,919 Speaker 3: for me. For them is like a ceiling like they're 1258 01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:03,040 Speaker 3: they're that kind of grouping where they're just like, y'all 1259 01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:04,800 Speaker 3: are all going to have like three two three three 1260 01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:08,960 Speaker 3: eras and a twenty percent strike out right, And that's 1261 01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:10,760 Speaker 3: going to be annoying in some ways and great in 1262 01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:12,600 Speaker 3: other ways. And it's gonna be hard for me to 1263 01:00:12,640 --> 01:00:14,320 Speaker 3: be like, oh, you could be a top ten pitcher 1264 01:00:14,320 --> 01:00:16,800 Speaker 3: in this league, like I have zero percent for that 1265 01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:19,920 Speaker 3: for Logan Web. I might have like a two percent 1266 01:00:20,160 --> 01:00:23,800 Speaker 3: for Christmas Sanchez and like an eight percent of top 1267 01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:25,680 Speaker 3: ten percentage ability. 1268 01:00:25,760 --> 01:00:29,200 Speaker 1: You know, that's very interesting, guys. This has been a 1269 01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:31,960 Speaker 1: fantastic conversation, as it usually is with the two of you. 1270 01:00:32,000 --> 01:00:33,720 Speaker 1: I hope you get to do the show every single year, 1271 01:00:33,760 --> 01:00:35,160 Speaker 1: and I want to give you guys a chance to 1272 01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:37,439 Speaker 1: let everybody know where you can be found, what work 1273 01:00:37,440 --> 01:00:39,480 Speaker 1: he got going on, any upcoming things you want to plug, 1274 01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:40,800 Speaker 1: you know, let's start off with you. 1275 01:00:41,480 --> 01:00:45,479 Speaker 3: I got breakout hitters today and we're doing a cool 1276 01:00:45,480 --> 01:00:49,760 Speaker 3: collaboration coming up on Wednesday where you're going to see 1277 01:00:50,240 --> 01:00:59,080 Speaker 3: multiple articles about new pitches from Nick and Lance Prozowski 1278 01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:02,000 Speaker 3: and so and Eric Eric Simolski we're all going to 1279 01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:04,880 Speaker 3: come out on Wednesday with we link to each other. 1280 01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:07,040 Speaker 3: We've been talking about who we're taking and why we're 1281 01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:08,840 Speaker 3: taking them, so we have an idea of what what 1282 01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:12,240 Speaker 3: everyone else is thinking. So that's a fun thing that's 1283 01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:14,280 Speaker 3: coming out. We're in we're kind of in draft kids season, 1284 01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:17,600 Speaker 3: so I'll have my my picture breakouts soon and all 1285 01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:18,200 Speaker 3: that fun stuff. 1286 01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:19,640 Speaker 1: Got to be keeping up with, you know, if you 1287 01:01:19,640 --> 01:01:21,360 Speaker 1: don't want to fall behind the curve. Even if you're 1288 01:01:21,360 --> 01:01:23,160 Speaker 1: not a big fantasy person, you probably are if you're 1289 01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:24,480 Speaker 1: listening to the show, but even if you're just looking 1290 01:01:24,520 --> 01:01:26,680 Speaker 1: for picture analysis, these are the two guys that go 1291 01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:28,840 Speaker 1: to Nick Picture List. What's going on over there? 1292 01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:30,920 Speaker 2: My friend, we've got some time. You might want to 1293 01:01:30,960 --> 01:01:33,880 Speaker 2: read my top four hundred. That's seventy five thousand words, 1294 01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:41,280 Speaker 2: just hanging out, just kick back with my tie thirteen. Yeah, 1295 01:01:44,480 --> 01:01:47,000 Speaker 2: but but yeah, it's so go go have film with that. 1296 01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:48,920 Speaker 2: It's free on the website at pictures dot com. But 1297 01:01:49,120 --> 01:01:50,880 Speaker 2: if you want to read ad free, you can get 1298 01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:53,720 Speaker 2: peel Plus, which we actually dropped the price to just 1299 01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:58,400 Speaker 2: sixty dollars a year. Join our incredible discord with over 1300 01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:02,280 Speaker 2: a thousand people that it's the nicest community of people 1301 01:02:02,360 --> 01:02:04,640 Speaker 2: who if you have questions like we answer it for you, 1302 01:02:04,760 --> 01:02:07,880 Speaker 2: and it's the best place to talk baseball on the internet. 1303 01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:10,240 Speaker 2: I cannot express that enough, but yeah, we got a 1304 01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:12,640 Speaker 2: life Draft assistant. Also, that's a web app coming out 1305 01:02:13,040 --> 01:02:15,680 Speaker 2: in like a week, so be on the lookout for that, 1306 01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:19,160 Speaker 2: which you can use all POV projections and everything inside 1307 01:02:19,160 --> 01:02:19,680 Speaker 2: of It's gonna be. 1308 01:02:19,680 --> 01:02:23,040 Speaker 1: Great, fantastic website. It is aesthetically pleasing and it also 1309 01:02:23,080 --> 01:02:25,480 Speaker 1: gives you everything you need to know, literally everything you 1310 01:02:25,480 --> 01:02:27,640 Speaker 1: need to know at pitcher List when you're evaluating not 1311 01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:30,040 Speaker 1: just pictures, you can evaluate hitters as well. It's not 1312 01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:31,880 Speaker 1: just Nick. There's a whole team of guys doing great 1313 01:02:31,880 --> 01:02:33,919 Speaker 1: stuff over there. So make sure you guys are checking 1314 01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:36,520 Speaker 1: out everything at picture List, everything at the Athletic, and 1315 01:02:36,600 --> 01:02:38,200 Speaker 1: make sure you guys are tuning into these shows because 1316 01:02:38,200 --> 01:02:39,760 Speaker 1: we've got a couple more of them planned up. Derek 1317 01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:42,960 Speaker 1: Van Riper, Jeff Erickson, Vlad Sadler, Greg Jewett. We got 1318 01:02:43,000 --> 01:02:44,520 Speaker 1: a lot of people coming on over the next few 1319 01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:47,280 Speaker 1: weeks to break down ADP and get into these battles. 1320 01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:49,120 Speaker 1: I hope you guys enjoyed what you saw today. But 1321 01:02:49,240 --> 01:02:52,280 Speaker 1: until next time. For Nick Pollock and Enosarrus, I'm Joel Rico. 1322 01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:53,960 Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next time right here on the 1323 01:02:53,960 --> 01:02:55,600 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast. 1324 01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:59,240 Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast. 1325 01:02:59,480 --> 01:03:02,080 Speaker 6: If you love show, the best freeway to support us 1326 01:03:02,080 --> 01:03:04,600 Speaker 6: is by leaving a positive review on Apple. 1327 01:03:04,320 --> 01:03:05,600 Speaker 2: Podcasts or Spotify. 1328 01:03:05,840 --> 01:03:09,440 Speaker 6: Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, 1329 01:03:09,520 --> 01:03:12,200 Speaker 6: and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com 1330 01:03:12,240 --> 01:03:13,800 Speaker 6: slash Fantasy Pros MLB