WEBVTT - How You Get and Actually Keep a Job at a Multi-Strat Hedge Fund

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Jill Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, there's a

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<v Speaker 2>lot we've discussed about multi strategy hedge funds, but there's

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<v Speaker 2>still a lot we don't know. And specifically, although I've

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<v Speaker 2>come to learn things about comp and alignment and the

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<v Speaker 2>importance of risk management and risk models and all that stuff,

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<v Speaker 2>I actually don't know, like how how the pods make

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<v Speaker 2>good trade.

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<v Speaker 3>This is part two hundred and ninety eight of our

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<v Speaker 3>attempt to understand multi strat hedge funds.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what it is.

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<v Speaker 3>But you're right, we haven't really looked at it from

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<v Speaker 3>the I guess the perspective of a PM who is

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<v Speaker 3>actually working there, and what it takes to get hot fired,

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<v Speaker 3>what it takes to avoid getting fired, and things like that.

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<v Speaker 2>I have a feeling that like avoiding getting fired is

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<v Speaker 2>a really big part of the story, Like you want

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<v Speaker 2>to do well right, you want to make money and

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<v Speaker 2>all that, but I also get the impression that you

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<v Speaker 2>just want to hang onto that seat for a really

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<v Speaker 2>long time, and that a big part of I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know if the game is the word. But a big

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<v Speaker 2>part of the game is yeah, holding onto that seat,

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<v Speaker 2>avoiding being part of any given call, Avoiding having your

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<v Speaker 2>name show up on Bloomberg in a story that gets

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<v Speaker 2>read spiked about so and so out after losing two

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and sixty million or whatever in the trade.

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<v Speaker 3>This is exactly what I was wondering, like, how do

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<v Speaker 3>the drawdowns actually impact a bunch of pms. Is it

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<v Speaker 3>like really embarrassing and does it have like an actual

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<v Speaker 3>effect on their trading? I imagine it does, and it

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<v Speaker 3>must have an effect on their confidence as well. But

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<v Speaker 3>I am very interested in this subject, and we have

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<v Speaker 3>joked a number of times about, you know, if we

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<v Speaker 3>were at a multistrat hedge fund things like that. So

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<v Speaker 3>maybe we'll get a better idea.

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<v Speaker 2>We definitely have to learn more about the pod level,

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<v Speaker 2>because I do get the pressure from talking to some people.

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<v Speaker 2>We talked to Running Cosgrave recently. It's like, oh, you

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<v Speaker 2>just put a bunch of people in a room and

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<v Speaker 2>if you have the risk management right, it kind of

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<v Speaker 2>works out. Anyway, We're going to continue our journey of

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<v Speaker 2>learning more about these big out.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a natural affinity between podcasts and pod shops.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, it's pretty sad. God, wouldn't you hate it if,

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<v Speaker 2>like if we screwed up or like we had like

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<v Speaker 2>an episode that didn't do very well and our traffic

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<v Speaker 2>was down or something, and there was like a big

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<v Speaker 2>article on It's like Joey Tracy out after you know,

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<v Speaker 2>after one month of underperformance of the podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh yeah, Well, this is the other thing, Like what

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<v Speaker 3>happens if you outperform for like half the year and

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<v Speaker 3>then you underperform for the second half of the year,

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<v Speaker 3>And how is that actually calculated in terms of your comp.

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<v Speaker 2>Totally And this came up before, which is that people

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<v Speaker 2>who have really good starts the fund at the fund level,

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<v Speaker 2>you don't want them taking off risk just to lock

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<v Speaker 2>in their annual bonuses. These are important questions. Anyway, let's

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<v Speaker 2>dive right into it. We have the perfect guest, someone

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<v Speaker 2>with a long track record and experience across many as

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<v Speaker 2>spects of this space. We're going to be speaking with

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<v Speaker 2>Brian Yelvington. He's currently a consultant for executive search firm

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<v Speaker 2>Carrington Fox, but he's been a former analyst in PM

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<v Speaker 2>at several large multi strat funds, Millennium or Capital et cetera,

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<v Speaker 2>A few others in there, and so up. Brian, thank

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<v Speaker 2>you so much for coming on odd lots.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you for having me. Great to be here. I

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<v Speaker 4>always enjoy the podcast and enjoy hearing the very subject

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<v Speaker 4>you guys come up with.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, thank you, we'd love to hear it. We're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>clip that and put it in the mix before we

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<v Speaker 2>go on, like why do you just give us the

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<v Speaker 2>real brief version of like who are you? And why

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<v Speaker 2>are we talking to you? Other than the fact that

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<v Speaker 2>if I go to your LinkedIn page there are a

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<v Speaker 2>bunch of famous companies listed on it.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, probably a few too many for my taste, to

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<v Speaker 4>be honest, I've kind of been one of the few

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<v Speaker 4>people who've been both a pod PM as well as

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<v Speaker 4>kind of helped bring those people into a large multi strat.

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<v Speaker 4>I left the risk taking world and went to work

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<v Speaker 4>in the business development area. Business development is just to

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<v Speaker 4>badly disguise you from this for manager selection, although it

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<v Speaker 4>means very different things at very different firms. So I've

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<v Speaker 4>seen it both from junior analysts side to a senior

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<v Speaker 4>PM to the person who's the necessary, if not sufficient

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<v Speaker 4>gatekeeper at a hedge fund.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm trying to think where to start because there's so

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<v Speaker 3>much for us to talk about. But if I'm a

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<v Speaker 3>PM and I am applying to a multi strat, what

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<v Speaker 3>would my CV or resume actually look like? And then

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<v Speaker 3>b would I even be applying to a multi strat?

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<v Speaker 3>Or would I be headhunted and they would find me?

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<v Speaker 4>The chances are generally better that if you're an established PM,

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<v Speaker 4>you would probably come either through direct from the BD

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<v Speaker 4>team who said, we need somebody who represents the same

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<v Speaker 4>risk that Tracy represents. We hear she's great, We'd love

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<v Speaker 4>to speak to her, or through an executive search firm

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<v Speaker 4>who's there's a lot of turnover in this industry and

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<v Speaker 4>they do a lot of business as a result.

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<v Speaker 2>So how do you know if someone is actually good?

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<v Speaker 2>Because this seems to be like one of the core

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<v Speaker 2>challenges in really all investing, right, like past results are

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<v Speaker 2>no guarantee of future returns. Everything always says that you

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<v Speaker 2>don't know what's just a lucky streak, et cetera. So

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<v Speaker 2>let's go through this process you want to establish if

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<v Speaker 2>someone is actually a good investor or trader or portfolio

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<v Speaker 2>manager or whatever. Walk us through the steps of like

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<v Speaker 2>how you actually would identify if Tracy is good at

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<v Speaker 2>her job exactly.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, first to caveat, you're never going to know, Okay.

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<v Speaker 4>The reason that past performance is not indicative of future

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<v Speaker 4>returns is because it's the future and we never know

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<v Speaker 4>how somebody's going to act. So what I'm going to

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<v Speaker 4>do during our first conversation Tracy is I'm going to

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<v Speaker 4>ask sort of like you guys did a little bit

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<v Speaker 4>about your background. I'm going to be looking for things

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<v Speaker 4>like where we might know people in common, where you

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<v Speaker 4>might have worked through a really good group or something

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<v Speaker 4>like that that had a great reputation. And then we're

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<v Speaker 4>going to get into the nitty gritty of the conversation

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<v Speaker 4>where I asked you in great detail, you know, what

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<v Speaker 4>is your edge? That part's actually not too detailed. You

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<v Speaker 4>should be able to elucidate that sort of standing on

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<v Speaker 4>one foot. Then I'm going to go into wait.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, can you pause, just give me if that's an

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<v Speaker 2>easy part, what is it? Because this is actually something

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<v Speaker 2>that I'm completely in the dark about. How does someone

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<v Speaker 2>go about articulating an edge in plan English during an interview?

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<v Speaker 2>Like what does that actually sound like? You say? Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>Like Brian, what's your edge. You used to trade fixed

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<v Speaker 2>income at where and where? Brian, what was your age?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I probably didn't have a very good one, but

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<v Speaker 4>my edge was usually from the research side. What I

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<v Speaker 4>will tell you is pms who are extremely good at

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<v Speaker 4>their jobs, have boiled down what their edge is to

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<v Speaker 4>a very well defined two or three sentence elevator pitch

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<v Speaker 4>style answer. And the reason that they're able to do

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<v Speaker 4>that is because this is something they've been doing a

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<v Speaker 4>long time, and they've made a huge number of mistakes,

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<v Speaker 4>and they know exactly the alpha that they want to identify,

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<v Speaker 4>are good at identifying and what they go after. So

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to sound different for everybody. For you know,

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<v Speaker 4>a macro RV type of fund, it may be that

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<v Speaker 4>they really anticipate the the shifts and monetary policy. For

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<v Speaker 4>a credit fund, it's that maybe they understand, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>corporate actions and they're really good at reading between the

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<v Speaker 4>lines of maybe even a specific niche of companies. So

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to differ, but you can usually tell by

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<v Speaker 4>someone's answer there how much they thought of it. The

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<v Speaker 4>bad answers tend to be something that relies on experience.

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<v Speaker 4>I'll note that there are too many octagenarian PMS or

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<v Speaker 4>something that relies on well, I'm just really good at this.

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<v Speaker 4>You kind of have to be able to identify it

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<v Speaker 4>to be good at it.

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<v Speaker 3>So going back to performance metrics, like what figures or

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<v Speaker 3>numbers are actually available? Well, here, you know, does a

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<v Speaker 3>potential PM come bearing sharp ratios? And then how does

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<v Speaker 3>the potential hiring firm actually do due diligence on some

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<v Speaker 3>of those numbers.

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<v Speaker 4>It's difficult. And the reality is that you know P

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<v Speaker 4>and L even within a firm as a BD person,

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<v Speaker 4>and again BD is very different from firm to firm.

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<v Speaker 4>But if I were to hire Tracy as PM.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm regretted using myself as an example, by the way.

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<v Speaker 4>No, we're going to have you do well, okay, right,

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<v Speaker 4>we'll flunk out somebody else. But if we were to

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<v Speaker 4>hire Tracy in some places, I might not even be

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<v Speaker 4>aware of how she's doing six months after we hired,

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<v Speaker 4>and others I would have kind of perfect inside p

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<v Speaker 4>and ls are extremely closely guarded secrets and usually they're

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<v Speaker 4>not discussed within the firm except for a very few

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<v Speaker 4>select group of people. And nobody's going to attest to

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<v Speaker 4>that P and L. Right, you of your own accord, Tracy,

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<v Speaker 4>might provide some assurance to somebody. Maybe it's because your

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<v Speaker 4>past cap or something. They can't ask, but you can

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<v Speaker 4>certainly say, hey, by the way, there's proof that I

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<v Speaker 4>did what I did. That's your priority.

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<v Speaker 2>Wait why can't they ask?

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<v Speaker 4>I believe that's the employment law. Yeah, you're allowed to ask.

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<v Speaker 4>It might not been designed to protect hedge fund pms,

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<v Speaker 4>but I believe it does cover them somewhat.

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<v Speaker 2>Tracy, I've brought up a bunch of chodes. I told you.

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<v Speaker 2>I have talked about the time that I interviewed at

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<v Speaker 2>a prop trading firm, right many many times.

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<v Speaker 3>Joe, Yes, are you going to tell the story again?

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<v Speaker 3>You can if you want.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll just tell the brief one, which is that when

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<v Speaker 2>I was living in Austin, which you are, Brian, you're

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<v Speaker 2>there now, I interviewed at a prop trading firm when

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<v Speaker 2>I was right out of college. There were two hundred interviews,

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<v Speaker 2>and they asked me about my own trading when I

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<v Speaker 2>used to date trade on each trade by myself, and

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<v Speaker 2>I told them a little about my trades. They made

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<v Speaker 2>me play a video game to test my hand and

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<v Speaker 2>I coordination, and then they made me play ping pong

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<v Speaker 2>against the CEO. I'm not really sure what that was

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<v Speaker 2>all about, but then I was one of I was one.

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<v Speaker 2>I was one of four people who got to offer

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<v Speaker 2>the job, and then for some reason I didn't take it.

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<v Speaker 3>Didn't you work at a sandwich shop?

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<v Speaker 2>To the now, I'm making sandwiches at the Wheatsville food

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<v Speaker 2>co Op at the time, and all my friends were

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<v Speaker 2>working there. I was like, I don't really feel like

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<v Speaker 2>working the corporate life just yet. And everything worked out

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<v Speaker 2>and it was fine. That's still one of the stranger

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<v Speaker 2>times in my life. But it was kind of like

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<v Speaker 2>this where they asked me specifics. All right, here's a

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<v Speaker 2>more important question. It's great to say, like, if you're

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<v Speaker 2>a PM, then you show, but the first you got

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<v Speaker 2>to become a PM. What does an analyst do? So

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<v Speaker 2>so a PM has a pod and they have analysts

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<v Speaker 2>in their pod, what does an analyst actually do?

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<v Speaker 4>Just as with the street, you know how they're analysts

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<v Speaker 4>and function and analysts and rank as you will, pods

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<v Speaker 4>will generally have analysts covering, you know, specific areas. Basically

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<v Speaker 4>at most firms, it's sort of a euphemism. If you

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<v Speaker 4>have trading authority you're either a trader, a SUBPM, or

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<v Speaker 4>a PM. If you do not have trading authority, but

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<v Speaker 4>you're still committing or contributing to investment decisions, you're an analyst.

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<v Speaker 4>It's just a generic catch all term. But you are

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<v Speaker 4>generally in charge of building the you know, specific type

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<v Speaker 4>of surveillance that the pod needs. You may have names

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<v Speaker 4>or industries or specific areas of a specific market to cover,

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<v Speaker 4>and you're being eyes and ears, and you will have

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<v Speaker 4>specific projects. Yeah, in our current environment, there's no no

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<v Speaker 4>shortage of things to test out and look into as

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<v Speaker 4>to how policies may change. So if you're in a macropod,

0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:40.240
<v Speaker 4>you're probably pretty busy right now.

0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:44.680
<v Speaker 3>Presumably you don't have to make perfect PowerPoint presentations for

0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:47.600
<v Speaker 3>potential deals and things like that. It's much more idea

0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:49.920
<v Speaker 3>generation and I guess like back testing.

0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:52.480
<v Speaker 4>There's you know there. Again, it kind of depends on

0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:54.480
<v Speaker 4>the type of pod that you're in. If you're in

0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:57.680
<v Speaker 4>a very directional macropod, you're probably looking for a lot

0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:00.960
<v Speaker 4>of historical analogs, you know, house pods, he responded in

0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:06.199
<v Speaker 4>the past. If you are in a more quantitatively oriented pod,

0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:09.040
<v Speaker 4>maybe something that does some form of arbitrage. He has

0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:13.840
<v Speaker 4>lots of back testing, lots of mathematical confetency. But it's

0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:18.120
<v Speaker 4>interesting who I've seen make the jump. I've seen a salesperson.

0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:22.199
<v Speaker 4>We basically just sent out a weekly commentary with a

0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:26.560
<v Speaker 4>model portfolio in it, and people loved it, and PM said, Hey,

0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:28.880
<v Speaker 4>we want to talk to this person. Who you go

0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:34.160
<v Speaker 4>talk to him? For US analysts public machine analysts. Joey

0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:36.439
<v Speaker 4>and I actually have a mutual friend that you've had

0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.080
<v Speaker 4>on the show before who was kind of writing for

0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:41.280
<v Speaker 4>a newsletter, and it was a newsletter. I can tell

0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.880
<v Speaker 4>you that most every PM I knew in macro was

0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:49.760
<v Speaker 4>reading and he built his audience on Twitter or X. Sorry,

0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:51.439
<v Speaker 4>that doesn't make a very good verb.

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:10.240
<v Speaker 3>All right? And then if I am running a pod shop,

0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:14.840
<v Speaker 3>what exactly am I looking for in terms of potential PM?

0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 3>So I get probably past performance, even though as we discussed,

0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:23.160
<v Speaker 3>it's not a perfect indicator of future performance. But am

0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:26.960
<v Speaker 3>I looking at personality like would I hire a complete

0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:29.440
<v Speaker 3>jerk who happens to be a star trader because it

0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 3>doesn't really matter how he works with other people because

0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:35.720
<v Speaker 3>he's going to be completely independent, Or would I be

0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:38.760
<v Speaker 3>looking at it very holistically and taking a sort of

0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 3>moneyball approach where I'm trying to fill in or plug

0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:48.640
<v Speaker 3>specific gaps in my overall business with maybe players or

0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:51.000
<v Speaker 3>traders that are undervalued by the market.

0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:55.360
<v Speaker 4>I think you're always trying to play the moneyball approach. However,

0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:59.360
<v Speaker 4>most puge funds differ a lot in how internally they communicate.

0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:03.520
<v Speaker 4>There are some hedge funds where you're really not allowed

0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.040
<v Speaker 4>to talk to people from other pods, Like I might

0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:09.360
<v Speaker 4>say something to you Tracy, like I like the market here,

0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:12.280
<v Speaker 4>I don't like it here, But I would never say,

0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:15.520
<v Speaker 4>you know, I'm shorting the two year versus the three year.

0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:20.040
<v Speaker 4>DBO one weighted something specific, and that's to avoid kind

0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 4>of cross contamination of the pods. Whereas there are others

0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 4>who really value the esprie de corps and they like

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:32.200
<v Speaker 4>to have people collaborate and those places. Not only are

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.960
<v Speaker 4>you going to have the typical meetings with BD and

0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:37.320
<v Speaker 4>risk and the CIO, but you're also going to meet

0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 4>a lot of other pms to make sure that you

0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:40.920
<v Speaker 4>know you're not a jerk.

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:44.720
<v Speaker 2>Let's talk more about getting a job as an analyst.

0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:46.600
<v Speaker 2>There are probably a lot of people, maybe they're in

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:50.800
<v Speaker 2>college listening to this episode right now. I think that

0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 2>if I were young and in college and didn't have

0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:56.040
<v Speaker 2>any obligations, I would like, Oh, this sounds really fun

0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 2>working for a multi strategy hedge funds. I would love

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:01.800
<v Speaker 2>to get my door in one. What would be like?

0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:04.080
<v Speaker 2>What should I do to get that first role.

0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:08.280
<v Speaker 4>There are a few firms that hire direct from college,

0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 4>direct from university. Those are very very small programs. Normally,

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:15.040
<v Speaker 4>there's only a few of them at scale. I would

0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:18.440
<v Speaker 4>say typically people who first move into a pod as

0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:22.160
<v Speaker 4>an analyst or perhaps a sub PM generally come from

0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:26.080
<v Speaker 4>the cell side or maybe prop but they generally have

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:28.760
<v Speaker 4>spent a couple of years on the cell side, have

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.880
<v Speaker 4>a lot of the great training that the street can provide,

0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.680
<v Speaker 4>and have advanced themselves to where they are saying, you know,

0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.240
<v Speaker 4>I no longer just want to make markets. I actually

0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:39.440
<v Speaker 4>want to trade my own risk.

0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:41.840
<v Speaker 2>So you get a job on the cell side, and

0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:46.120
<v Speaker 2>you establish yourself as someone who knows something, who people

0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 2>like reading from, and who people like reading their You

0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:51.720
<v Speaker 2>know their takes and their models and have interesting insights

0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 2>to say about whatever asset classes is being traded.

0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:57.680
<v Speaker 4>Either that or you have a business that actually would

0:15:57.680 --> 0:16:01.120
<v Speaker 4>work good on the buy side happens to be in

0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:04.320
<v Speaker 4>the cell side. But in terms of how you get

0:16:04.320 --> 0:16:07.640
<v Speaker 4>that first job, I would say, be useful. I think

0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.400
<v Speaker 4>that everybody is kind of concentrated on the you know,

0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:12.560
<v Speaker 4>I want to be coming up with the ideas that

0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:14.680
<v Speaker 4>go into the book, and you sort of grow into

0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:18.240
<v Speaker 4>that slowly. But if you're somebody who you know has

0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:21.080
<v Speaker 4>read the history or done the work or researched, you

0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:24.040
<v Speaker 4>know what happens when on the first bed cut, what

0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:27.320
<v Speaker 4>happens on the last what happened in the dollar the

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:29.920
<v Speaker 4>last time we had tariffs. Those sorts of analogs in

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.680
<v Speaker 4>the macro world are very good. If you understand restructurings,

0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:36.960
<v Speaker 4>you're probably going to be pretty valuable to high yield

0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:40.120
<v Speaker 4>or distress pod. You're not going to get that. You know,

0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:43.680
<v Speaker 4>I've got the con kind of job right away, So

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:45.840
<v Speaker 4>you need to be useful in the job you're applying for.

0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:48.640
<v Speaker 1>And then you.

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:51.160
<v Speaker 3>Kind of touched on this before, but I would love

0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:55.080
<v Speaker 3>to hear more what are the pools that multistraats are

0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:58.200
<v Speaker 3>actually drawing from and have those changed over time, Like

0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:00.960
<v Speaker 3>you know, when they first started popping up, were they

0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.520
<v Speaker 3>hiring from fund of funds? And the cell side, and

0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:07.240
<v Speaker 3>then as they progress, maybe get a little bit more

0:17:07.320 --> 0:17:13.360
<v Speaker 3>experimental and start diversifying into other industries to draw pms from.

0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:15.800
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean, for instance, we've seen a lot of

0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:19.280
<v Speaker 4>interesting commodities pms over the past few years, and a

0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.400
<v Speaker 4>lot of those are at trade houses, or perhaps they worn't.

0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:25.280
<v Speaker 4>For large boiling gas companies, a lot of which are

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:29.600
<v Speaker 4>really more engineering than trading, they'll look anywhere if there's

0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:33.840
<v Speaker 4>sort of, you know, a definable edge. And we were

0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:37.480
<v Speaker 4>talking a little bit about the process of interviewing. Part

0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:39.480
<v Speaker 4>of what somebody is looking for is, you know, can

0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:41.760
<v Speaker 4>we do what you do? I'll give you an example.

0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.000
<v Speaker 4>Funds really want to expand their balance sheet and be

0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:47.160
<v Speaker 4>as efficient with it as possible. If we look at

0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:51.320
<v Speaker 4>gross notional exposure to net assets for multistrats, we hovered

0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:55.000
<v Speaker 4>around ten ten x through about twenty twenty, and since

0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:59.360
<v Speaker 4>then now we're between fourteen and sixteen and that's grossing

0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:04.040
<v Speaker 4>sets up as a multiple of their investible assets. So

0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:06.280
<v Speaker 4>that tells you they're looking for things that are a

0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:11.480
<v Speaker 4>little bit more highly leverageable. But any edge they will

0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:14.720
<v Speaker 4>look at. You know, fifteen years ago, no multistrap traded

0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:17.840
<v Speaker 4>munis most all of them do. Now, you know, there

0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:22.480
<v Speaker 4>were certain businesses like index rebounel, things of that nature

0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:25.760
<v Speaker 4>basis type trades that once were the exclusive province of

0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:29.639
<v Speaker 4>the street and now because in the ability of a

0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:32.399
<v Speaker 4>lot of these multi strats to effectively lose use their

0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:36.960
<v Speaker 4>balance sheet, they can engage in those businesses. Right.

0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:38.880
<v Speaker 2>This is run of the themes that's come up as

0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:41.000
<v Speaker 2>the sort of like post dog frank era or a

0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:44.199
<v Speaker 2>lot of certain types of trades that used to exist

0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:46.399
<v Speaker 2>in house at the major banks are now have now

0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:51.360
<v Speaker 2>effectively been outsourced in some manner to buyside entities where

0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:54.480
<v Speaker 2>it's more appropriate to take these risks. Let's talk about

0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:57.200
<v Speaker 2>your time when you were a PM. We talked about

0:18:57.200 --> 0:18:59.600
<v Speaker 2>the value of the seat and not getting fired. And

0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:01.760
<v Speaker 2>I also get the impression that on a sort of

0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:03.480
<v Speaker 2>day to day or week to week or trade to

0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:07.200
<v Speaker 2>trade basis, there's a lot of constraints from the risk manager.

0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:11.439
<v Speaker 2>Talk about the incentives of the PM to survive and

0:19:11.440 --> 0:19:12.840
<v Speaker 2>make it to the next year and make it to

0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:13.800
<v Speaker 2>the next bonus season.

0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:16.920
<v Speaker 4>I mean, you can essentially think of working for a

0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:21.240
<v Speaker 4>multistrat is you're running your own business. Okay, you're sort

0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:23.800
<v Speaker 4>of running your own fund. But you only have one client,

0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:26.200
<v Speaker 4>so you have to make very sure that that client's happy.

0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:31.399
<v Speaker 4>Your constraints are usually put in, you know, two terms.

0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:34.439
<v Speaker 4>You'll often hear the term capital thrown around. You know,

0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:39.920
<v Speaker 4>Tracy manages seven hundred million in XYZ and Joe has

0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:44.480
<v Speaker 4>fifty million in ABC, that sort of thing. The truth is,

0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:48.320
<v Speaker 4>those aren't really easily comparable numbers, right. The hedge fund

0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:53.200
<v Speaker 4>itself is inherently leveraged. They'll typically allocate somewhere between three

0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:57.280
<v Speaker 4>and four times their notional value, maybe even more in

0:19:57.359 --> 0:20:01.760
<v Speaker 4>terms of allocations to traders a billion dollars, you're allocating

0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:05.680
<v Speaker 4>out theoretically three or four billion. But there are two

0:20:05.760 --> 0:20:08.160
<v Speaker 4>numbers that are going to matter a lot to a PM.

0:20:08.280 --> 0:20:10.840
<v Speaker 4>The first one is how much can I lose? That's

0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:14.000
<v Speaker 4>your draw down, and there are two ways to measure that.

0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:16.399
<v Speaker 4>Most hedge funds are going to measure it on a

0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:20.280
<v Speaker 4>peak to trough basis, meaning even if you're up five,

0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:24.040
<v Speaker 4>if you give back suppose you're stopped is seven. If

0:20:24.080 --> 0:20:26.719
<v Speaker 4>you give back seven, then that's going to be your

0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:29.520
<v Speaker 4>draw down, even though you really weren't down from zero

0:20:29.920 --> 0:20:32.719
<v Speaker 4>much at all. The other way to measure that is

0:20:32.760 --> 0:20:36.399
<v Speaker 4>from zero from flat. So you can actually be fired

0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:38.560
<v Speaker 4>from one of these places and be up money on

0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 4>the year. When it happens, you just gave back too

0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:43.320
<v Speaker 4>much of your sort of new money.

0:20:43.600 --> 0:20:47.280
<v Speaker 2>So actually explain that further a why would you fire

0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:51.920
<v Speaker 2>someone who's managed money profitably? But then here's another related

0:20:52.040 --> 0:20:54.320
<v Speaker 2>question to that is, like you hear about, Okay, someone

0:20:54.320 --> 0:20:57.120
<v Speaker 2>gets fired from place X, and then they go get

0:20:57.200 --> 0:21:01.359
<v Speaker 2>a new job at place y. But if there objectively talented,

0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:03.960
<v Speaker 2>and maybe they're not, but if by some measure that

0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:07.239
<v Speaker 2>it can be established that they're talented, why are the

0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:10.640
<v Speaker 2>pods so quick to fire them? I mean, I get, yeah,

0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:12.959
<v Speaker 2>you lose money, that's not good. But if you know

0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:16.080
<v Speaker 2>losing money happens if the person has talent, why the

0:21:16.160 --> 0:21:16.720
<v Speaker 2>quick fires.

0:21:17.280 --> 0:21:20.280
<v Speaker 4>It helps if you think of the multistraat itself as

0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:25.000
<v Speaker 4>managing a portfolio themselves, but it's a portfolio of risk takers.

0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:29.399
<v Speaker 4>Not to be reductive, but generally most of those types

0:21:29.440 --> 0:21:32.240
<v Speaker 4>of decisions are made on a fund by fund basis.

0:21:32.680 --> 0:21:35.359
<v Speaker 4>In other words, you know, maybe this person is not

0:21:35.600 --> 0:21:38.399
<v Speaker 4>as uncorrelated to what we have as we already thought.

0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:41.560
<v Speaker 4>They are not really making a lot of money. They

0:21:41.680 --> 0:21:44.240
<v Speaker 4>just exceeded their draw down, because it's not like they

0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:47.479
<v Speaker 4>don't know that it's a picatrough number. They're perfectly aware

0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:51.520
<v Speaker 4>of it. Or perhaps there's another opportunity in the market

0:21:51.560 --> 0:21:54.639
<v Speaker 4>to replace them with someone better. They're always looking to

0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:58.480
<v Speaker 4>optimize their portfolio of risk takers as far as the

0:21:58.560 --> 0:22:01.359
<v Speaker 4>other firm. They could be thinking, this person does fit

0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:04.200
<v Speaker 4>what we need and we really like their risk profile.

0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:07.879
<v Speaker 4>Even a really great PM is going to have a

0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:11.680
<v Speaker 4>significant draw down every two to five years, and there

0:22:11.720 --> 0:22:14.199
<v Speaker 4>aren't too many who've gone ten plus years with no

0:22:14.359 --> 0:22:16.840
<v Speaker 4>losing gears. You know, you just don't want to be

0:22:16.880 --> 0:22:20.600
<v Speaker 4>that person who experiences that five percent of the time

0:22:20.680 --> 0:22:22.960
<v Speaker 4>broad down in your first few months. And a new thought.

0:22:23.800 --> 0:22:26.959
<v Speaker 3>I used to know a credit guy who always said, like,

0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:29.479
<v Speaker 3>you're not a proper credit trader until you've had at

0:22:29.560 --> 0:22:34.040
<v Speaker 3>least one major blow up. Maybe maybe that's true. But

0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:36.920
<v Speaker 3>on this note, Okay, if I get a big draw down,

0:22:37.119 --> 0:22:40.199
<v Speaker 3>I understand maybe it depends on where I am with

0:22:40.320 --> 0:22:42.120
<v Speaker 3>my career, and if I get it in the first

0:22:42.119 --> 0:22:44.800
<v Speaker 3>six months of working at a shop, that would be

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:48.000
<v Speaker 3>very bad. But if it's in you know, year six

0:22:48.160 --> 0:22:51.280
<v Speaker 3>or something, maybe it doesn't matter so much, But how

0:22:51.359 --> 0:22:54.840
<v Speaker 3>embarrassed am I when that happens? And am I like

0:22:55.240 --> 0:22:59.960
<v Speaker 3>publicly shamed within the organization for this happening? Or how

0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:01.080
<v Speaker 3>does it work exactly?

0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:04.040
<v Speaker 4>You know, it's sort of funny because obviously we had

0:23:04.440 --> 0:23:06.719
<v Speaker 4>a period just a few months back where there were

0:23:06.720 --> 0:23:11.359
<v Speaker 4>a lot of headlines about large losses. Is the marketplace

0:23:11.600 --> 0:23:14.680
<v Speaker 4>views it, it's going to feel awful to the PM, right,

0:23:14.800 --> 0:23:16.959
<v Speaker 4>you never want to be on the screen for a loss.

0:23:17.280 --> 0:23:19.680
<v Speaker 4>But whenever you see somebody up there with one hundred

0:23:19.720 --> 0:23:22.520
<v Speaker 4>million dollar loss, that means they had one hundred million

0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:26.040
<v Speaker 4>to lose, which means that they were managing a large

0:23:26.040 --> 0:23:28.919
<v Speaker 4>book and they were taking a lot of risk. And

0:23:29.000 --> 0:23:31.160
<v Speaker 4>if you'll notice, some of those pms from a few

0:23:31.160 --> 0:23:34.320
<v Speaker 4>months ago are still exactly where they were. You are

0:23:34.480 --> 0:23:39.440
<v Speaker 4>really generally better off getting bounced for a large loss

0:23:39.800 --> 0:23:41.040
<v Speaker 4>than you are a small one.

0:23:41.640 --> 0:23:44.280
<v Speaker 2>This goes fits with something one of my beliefs that

0:23:44.400 --> 0:23:47.959
<v Speaker 2>a billionaire is someone who either has positive one billion

0:23:47.960 --> 0:23:50.800
<v Speaker 2>dollars in net worth or negative one billion in one

0:23:50.840 --> 0:23:53.240
<v Speaker 2>billion in debt, because you have to be like really

0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:55.919
<v Speaker 2>rich to have lost that much money. And anytime you

0:23:56.000 --> 0:23:59.160
<v Speaker 2>hear about like a former billionaire and they lost everything.

0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:02.440
<v Speaker 2>They're almost all as still somehow living large. So being

0:24:02.520 --> 0:24:06.119
<v Speaker 2>deeply deeply in debt is almost as good as having

0:24:06.640 --> 0:24:09.480
<v Speaker 2>tons of money. So I'm glad to hear this. How

0:24:09.480 --> 0:24:12.000
<v Speaker 2>does that constrain your actual trading? Okay, you know that

0:24:12.160 --> 0:24:14.240
<v Speaker 2>draw down number, you know at the point we're going

0:24:14.320 --> 0:24:16.159
<v Speaker 2>to get stopped out of the seat, How does that

0:24:16.240 --> 0:24:19.480
<v Speaker 2>actually translate into thinking about the trades that you put on?

0:24:20.160 --> 0:24:22.720
<v Speaker 4>I hate to do And it depends, But it sort

0:24:22.760 --> 0:24:26.160
<v Speaker 4>of depends on where you're at. Because even though common

0:24:26.240 --> 0:24:30.439
<v Speaker 4>draw down for limits are usually somewhere between seven and

0:24:30.520 --> 0:24:33.880
<v Speaker 4>ten percent for what's called a stop out, you might

0:24:33.960 --> 0:24:36.639
<v Speaker 4>end up getting your capital reduced well before that at

0:24:36.720 --> 0:24:39.280
<v Speaker 4>three and a half or five, and that makes it

0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:42.879
<v Speaker 4>really really hard to come back. The key is, you know,

0:24:42.960 --> 0:24:45.560
<v Speaker 4>do you have a process, do you have risk management

0:24:45.560 --> 0:24:50.720
<v Speaker 4>and portfolio construction where you are still applying your risk management.

0:24:50.760 --> 0:24:53.240
<v Speaker 4>I'm only going to risk as much my risk capital.

0:24:53.359 --> 0:24:56.240
<v Speaker 4>What is between me and a capital reduction or draw down?

0:24:57.080 --> 0:24:59.879
<v Speaker 4>I'm going to be pick here. I'm going to trade smaller.

0:25:00.400 --> 0:25:02.600
<v Speaker 4>There are a lot of funds that have you know,

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:07.000
<v Speaker 4>internal coaches, psychologists like it's windy Rhodes is based on

0:25:07.240 --> 0:25:11.480
<v Speaker 4>real people who do real things. And you know, certain

0:25:11.520 --> 0:25:13.479
<v Speaker 4>firms will sit you down and talk to you, or

0:25:13.520 --> 0:25:16.320
<v Speaker 4>they'll make you take a time out. Other firms will

0:25:16.359 --> 0:25:19.920
<v Speaker 4>just say that's it, you're out. But psychologically it makes

0:25:19.960 --> 0:25:22.520
<v Speaker 4>you you want to get it back, which is not

0:25:22.560 --> 0:25:24.720
<v Speaker 4>a great feeling because even when you get there, you're

0:25:24.760 --> 0:25:30.240
<v Speaker 4>just at flat and it really impacts your risk taking tolerance.

0:25:31.000 --> 0:25:33.080
<v Speaker 4>I think one of the best things that you know,

0:25:33.280 --> 0:25:35.199
<v Speaker 4>I ever heard was if you're kind of in a

0:25:35.240 --> 0:25:38.400
<v Speaker 4>losing street, just get flat and go away. Don't keep

0:25:38.440 --> 0:25:41.240
<v Speaker 4>any marginal things. You can always buy it back later.

0:25:41.320 --> 0:25:43.960
<v Speaker 4>You can always sell it later. But get your mind right.

0:25:44.000 --> 0:25:47.679
<v Speaker 4>But it does negatively affect you and you kind of

0:25:47.840 --> 0:25:51.080
<v Speaker 4>stew your thinking either to I'm going to take more

0:25:51.119 --> 0:25:53.719
<v Speaker 4>bets to get it back faster, or I'm not going

0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:56.320
<v Speaker 4>to do anything because I'm going to be so picky.

0:25:57.080 --> 0:26:00.080
<v Speaker 4>Overtrading is really common. I'll give you a for example. Well,

0:26:00.520 --> 0:26:03.959
<v Speaker 4>people coming from the cell side almost always overtrade when

0:26:04.000 --> 0:26:06.760
<v Speaker 4>they first get to the buyside. The reason is trading

0:26:06.800 --> 0:26:09.320
<v Speaker 4>has a positive expected value for them. They are in

0:26:09.359 --> 0:26:13.720
<v Speaker 4>the bid ask. Not only that, but facilitation desk on

0:26:13.760 --> 0:26:18.199
<v Speaker 4>the cell side. They lose money if VALL explodes, but

0:26:18.240 --> 0:26:21.640
<v Speaker 4>they generally make a lot of more money after it subsides.

0:26:21.800 --> 0:26:24.600
<v Speaker 4>The bid ask widens out and they could collect a

0:26:24.600 --> 0:26:26.320
<v Speaker 4>lot of clients flow in the back end of that.

0:26:26.840 --> 0:26:29.159
<v Speaker 4>One of the questions that I always ask people is,

0:26:29.240 --> 0:26:31.359
<v Speaker 4>you know, tell me about your biggest draw down. What

0:26:31.440 --> 0:26:34.439
<v Speaker 4>did happen, When was it, what was going on? What happened?

0:26:34.480 --> 0:26:37.320
<v Speaker 4>Would you do? And the sell side traders will always

0:26:37.359 --> 0:26:40.679
<v Speaker 4>have very quick times to recovery, and they expected to

0:26:40.680 --> 0:26:43.960
<v Speaker 4>get it back, but that's not the positive expected value

0:26:44.080 --> 0:26:46.520
<v Speaker 4>you have on the buy side. It costs your money

0:26:46.600 --> 0:27:00.720
<v Speaker 4>to trade.

0:27:02.440 --> 0:27:05.440
<v Speaker 3>Brian, tell me about your biggest draw down and what

0:27:05.480 --> 0:27:07.720
<v Speaker 3>it was and what you did well.

0:27:07.760 --> 0:27:10.440
<v Speaker 4>My biggest drug I was losing my job. I can't

0:27:10.520 --> 0:27:14.399
<v Speaker 4>name numbers, but essentially I violated my own risk. I

0:27:14.480 --> 0:27:18.359
<v Speaker 4>usually never speculated on outright vault, and I had a

0:27:18.400 --> 0:27:23.240
<v Speaker 4>long VALL position, and I normally would have structured that

0:27:23.359 --> 0:27:26.320
<v Speaker 4>as a spread, and I didn't. And though I was

0:27:26.400 --> 0:27:31.240
<v Speaker 4>directionally right, I bought really expensive wall and therefore didn't

0:27:31.240 --> 0:27:34.760
<v Speaker 4>make much money. Got hit on volatility in a much

0:27:34.840 --> 0:27:37.840
<v Speaker 4>larger fashion than I thought I would, And I was

0:27:37.880 --> 0:27:40.320
<v Speaker 4>in that camp of not a big draw down, and

0:27:40.359 --> 0:27:43.560
<v Speaker 4>it was almost unreal to people that I knew, Like,

0:27:43.640 --> 0:27:46.760
<v Speaker 4>why would they let you go? Because there's not a

0:27:46.760 --> 0:27:50.640
<v Speaker 4>lot of verifiable information out there. That always sounds very

0:27:50.680 --> 0:27:54.000
<v Speaker 4>suspect to people. I wish I could be more colorful

0:27:54.000 --> 0:27:54.199
<v Speaker 4>for that.

0:27:54.400 --> 0:27:58.040
<v Speaker 3>No, no, no, then that's really helpful. But on this note,

0:27:58.240 --> 0:28:01.840
<v Speaker 3>I'm also curious. Do pms ever go to like risk

0:28:01.920 --> 0:28:05.199
<v Speaker 3>managers or the people above them and beg for like

0:28:05.680 --> 0:28:08.800
<v Speaker 3>either more money or more risk tolerance.

0:28:09.440 --> 0:28:13.600
<v Speaker 4>Oh? Absolutely, And a lot of firms actually have, you know,

0:28:13.760 --> 0:28:16.960
<v Speaker 4>programs where if you have something that's really scalable that

0:28:17.040 --> 0:28:19.280
<v Speaker 4>you think is very functional, they may give you sort

0:28:19.280 --> 0:28:21.720
<v Speaker 4>of a side account and you get paid on that,

0:28:21.880 --> 0:28:24.840
<v Speaker 4>but it's not part of your regular book. Once you

0:28:24.880 --> 0:28:27.359
<v Speaker 4>work in BD, a lot of the people who you

0:28:27.440 --> 0:28:30.000
<v Speaker 4>bring in sort of ask you questions like, Hey, I

0:28:30.040 --> 0:28:31.960
<v Speaker 4>want to do this, Who should I ask? When should

0:28:31.960 --> 0:28:35.560
<v Speaker 4>I ask? I generally tell pms, unless it's an actual

0:28:35.600 --> 0:28:39.280
<v Speaker 4>trade idea, don't just ask for more capital unless it's

0:28:39.320 --> 0:28:42.680
<v Speaker 4>one of two situations. Number One, you just got there

0:28:42.720 --> 0:28:44.920
<v Speaker 4>because they love you, you haven't done anything wrong, and

0:28:44.960 --> 0:28:47.440
<v Speaker 4>they just probably paid up to get you. Number Two,

0:28:47.520 --> 0:28:50.400
<v Speaker 4>you've just made a hundred million bucks. Other than those

0:28:50.400 --> 0:28:52.480
<v Speaker 4>two situations, don't ask for things.

0:28:53.400 --> 0:28:56.680
<v Speaker 2>Wait, let's learn more about violating your own risk book.

0:28:56.760 --> 0:29:01.000
<v Speaker 2>There's a famous story from Stan Druckenmiller. He apparently like

0:29:01.080 --> 0:29:04.400
<v Speaker 2>bought the very top of the internet bubble, and he says,

0:29:04.480 --> 0:29:06.960
<v Speaker 2>you asked me what I learned. I didn't learn anything.

0:29:07.080 --> 0:29:08.760
<v Speaker 2>I already knew that I wasn't supposed to do that.

0:29:08.800 --> 0:29:11.480
<v Speaker 2>I was just an emotional basket case and couldn't help myself.

0:29:11.680 --> 0:29:13.520
<v Speaker 2>So maybe I learned not to do it again, but

0:29:13.600 --> 0:29:16.280
<v Speaker 2>I already knew that. When a fund manager is sort

0:29:16.280 --> 0:29:18.640
<v Speaker 2>of like violate or a PM is violating some of

0:29:18.680 --> 0:29:22.040
<v Speaker 2>their own things, do they know it? Do they feel differently?

0:29:22.040 --> 0:29:24.120
<v Speaker 2>Do they get like some sort of acidic taste in

0:29:24.160 --> 0:29:27.200
<v Speaker 2>their mouth? When I like go on tilt when I

0:29:27.240 --> 0:29:29.160
<v Speaker 2>play poker, I always sort of know it, but I

0:29:29.200 --> 0:29:31.760
<v Speaker 2>can't help myself anyway. Like I just do it and

0:29:31.800 --> 0:29:33.280
<v Speaker 2>I go all in and I know I hadn't then

0:29:33.320 --> 0:29:35.400
<v Speaker 2>I have to embarrassingly walk out of the table. Like

0:29:35.640 --> 0:29:37.920
<v Speaker 2>what does that feel like? Talk about like what's going

0:29:37.960 --> 0:29:40.440
<v Speaker 2>on in someone's brain when they're like taking these risks

0:29:40.560 --> 0:29:41.760
<v Speaker 2>that on paper they shouldn't be.

0:29:42.000 --> 0:29:45.160
<v Speaker 4>Well, usually you only recognize in the rear view. If

0:29:45.200 --> 0:29:47.440
<v Speaker 4>you slow down and think through the trade, you know,

0:29:47.520 --> 0:29:50.680
<v Speaker 4>you sort of realize that, hey, you probably shouldn't do this.

0:29:51.600 --> 0:29:54.320
<v Speaker 4>But I think you're parallel with being on tilt at

0:29:54.320 --> 0:29:57.120
<v Speaker 4>a poker table. It's it's that knowledge, you know, as

0:29:57.120 --> 0:30:00.000
<v Speaker 4>can you call somebody or after you raise that instant

0:30:00.160 --> 0:30:04.520
<v Speaker 4>feeling that man, I just leaped up. It's that feeling,

0:30:04.560 --> 0:30:06.440
<v Speaker 4>only you're going to feel it for a few days,

0:30:06.600 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 4>and you're going to get a little email or call

0:30:08.880 --> 0:30:11.760
<v Speaker 4>from your risk manager, and then you're not going to

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 4>know what that sit down is going to be like.

0:30:13.560 --> 0:30:16.520
<v Speaker 4>It might be, Hey, no big deal, get back out there,

0:30:17.120 --> 0:30:20.400
<v Speaker 4>you know, don't worry about it. It may be an

0:30:20.520 --> 0:30:23.640
<v Speaker 4>entirely different conversation. You may be told to go to

0:30:23.760 --> 0:30:26.880
<v Speaker 4>HR don't take your jacket, or take your jacket, I

0:30:26.920 --> 0:30:29.400
<v Speaker 4>should say. But it isn't a bad feeling. And I

0:30:29.440 --> 0:30:32.600
<v Speaker 4>think some of the better mentors that I've had through

0:30:32.600 --> 0:30:34.520
<v Speaker 4>the years have kind of taught me like that mental

0:30:34.560 --> 0:30:37.760
<v Speaker 4>health thing and where you're at is very important. And

0:30:37.800 --> 0:30:41.520
<v Speaker 4>I think it's even worse when you're at a multistraat

0:30:41.680 --> 0:30:46.160
<v Speaker 4>or a situation where you have a single plot that's

0:30:46.240 --> 0:30:49.840
<v Speaker 4>it if that one client isn't happy, you are probably

0:30:50.120 --> 0:30:54.480
<v Speaker 4>out for at least six months and potentially much longer.

0:30:54.640 --> 0:30:57.680
<v Speaker 4>The BD process to bring a new PM on board

0:30:57.800 --> 0:30:59.960
<v Speaker 4>is somewhere around three months on its own.

0:31:00.560 --> 0:31:03.200
<v Speaker 2>Do you do post mortems on winning and losing trades?

0:31:03.280 --> 0:31:03.520
<v Speaker 3>Kind of?

0:31:03.680 --> 0:31:06.360
<v Speaker 2>You know, like after I forget talk about poker, you

0:31:06.440 --> 0:31:08.960
<v Speaker 2>go back and you run the poker hand through a

0:31:09.040 --> 0:31:11.240
<v Speaker 2>solver and you see if you played it correctly, often

0:31:11.280 --> 0:31:13.720
<v Speaker 2>whether you made money or lose money. Is there an

0:31:13.720 --> 0:31:16.880
<v Speaker 2>equivalent process that's done in the trading world.

0:31:17.240 --> 0:31:19.840
<v Speaker 4>N hundred percent. As a matter of fact, if you

0:31:19.920 --> 0:31:22.840
<v Speaker 4>guys have never had Brent Donnelly on, he wrote a

0:31:22.840 --> 0:31:25.160
<v Speaker 4>book called Alfit Trader, and I've probably never seen that

0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:27.400
<v Speaker 4>information written down in one place before.

0:31:27.520 --> 0:31:29.760
<v Speaker 2>But right, yeah, we should have them back on or

0:31:29.800 --> 0:31:31.479
<v Speaker 2>something to talk about just now, but keep tell us

0:31:31.480 --> 0:31:33.640
<v Speaker 2>more about it from your perspective, Yes.

0:31:33.520 --> 0:31:36.520
<v Speaker 4>You know, and that is part of the other process,

0:31:36.600 --> 0:31:39.440
<v Speaker 4>like we mentioned edge, like the other parts of the

0:31:39.440 --> 0:31:41.760
<v Speaker 4>beating process that I want to know the process by

0:31:41.760 --> 0:31:44.680
<v Speaker 4>which somebody selects trades. I want to know about their

0:31:44.840 --> 0:31:47.760
<v Speaker 4>portfolio construction, and I want to know their approach to risk,

0:31:48.560 --> 0:31:52.440
<v Speaker 4>Especially on risk, you'll find that very good pms, and

0:31:52.600 --> 0:31:56.280
<v Speaker 4>especially these firms, the firms themselves, even though the PM

0:31:56.360 --> 0:31:59.080
<v Speaker 4>may not see it, they know exactly how many bets

0:31:59.120 --> 0:32:01.760
<v Speaker 4>you've taken. They know about your hit rate, they understand

0:32:01.800 --> 0:32:04.960
<v Speaker 4>your skew. They can sort of tell when you're deviating

0:32:05.000 --> 0:32:08.120
<v Speaker 4>from your wrist mandate. They have a lot of analytics.

0:32:08.800 --> 0:32:11.280
<v Speaker 4>But it's been my experience that the best pms look

0:32:11.320 --> 0:32:14.080
<v Speaker 4>at it themselves. They're almost religious with it. You know,

0:32:14.160 --> 0:32:16.640
<v Speaker 4>how did I do today? It's very similar to an

0:32:16.680 --> 0:32:20.920
<v Speaker 4>athlete watching tape or a dancer. My daughters loves dance.

0:32:21.000 --> 0:32:23.160
<v Speaker 4>You know, she'll watch tape of herselves. This is what

0:32:23.200 --> 0:32:25.600
<v Speaker 4>I missed, this is what I didn't do. And the

0:32:25.720 --> 0:32:28.640
<v Speaker 4>great benefit of doing it in a statistical fashion is

0:32:28.680 --> 0:32:31.200
<v Speaker 4>you can remove, oh, I won't count that because it

0:32:31.320 --> 0:32:34.280
<v Speaker 4>was a Tuesday and a full moon. Any excuse you

0:32:34.360 --> 0:32:37.840
<v Speaker 4>have goes out the window. Those are the numbers on

0:32:37.880 --> 0:32:38.400
<v Speaker 4>this note.

0:32:38.440 --> 0:32:41.840
<v Speaker 3>And since Joe brought up poker earlier, are there like

0:32:42.040 --> 0:32:47.760
<v Speaker 3>popular ways to become a better better better? Does that

0:32:47.800 --> 0:32:48.320
<v Speaker 3>work for all?

0:32:48.560 --> 0:32:49.040
<v Speaker 2>Better?

0:32:49.160 --> 0:32:52.000
<v Speaker 3>A better better better? And I'm thinking, you know, I'm

0:32:52.000 --> 0:32:55.200
<v Speaker 3>thinking back to Liar's Poker. That's a famous example. And

0:32:55.280 --> 0:32:58.680
<v Speaker 3>then wasn't there something at Jane Street that Sam Bankman

0:32:58.760 --> 0:33:02.200
<v Speaker 3>Freed was doing a bunch of different like gambling games

0:33:02.600 --> 0:33:03.240
<v Speaker 3>things like that.

0:33:03.400 --> 0:33:03.720
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:33:04.040 --> 0:33:07.480
<v Speaker 3>Like what is popular in terms of I guess building

0:33:07.600 --> 0:33:09.760
<v Speaker 3>up your risk returnals.

0:33:10.240 --> 0:33:14.800
<v Speaker 4>Well, I think anything where you have some element of strategy,

0:33:14.880 --> 0:33:16.640
<v Speaker 4>And I think one of the reasons that poker is

0:33:16.680 --> 0:33:21.400
<v Speaker 4>so popular is that it combines not only strict strategy

0:33:21.560 --> 0:33:24.120
<v Speaker 4>like you might see in chess, but also a fair

0:33:24.160 --> 0:33:27.400
<v Speaker 4>degree of complete randomness and you're going to take some

0:33:27.520 --> 0:33:30.720
<v Speaker 4>bad beats and that's going to happen in trading. It's

0:33:30.720 --> 0:33:33.400
<v Speaker 4>easy to forget, but a really good PM might have

0:33:33.440 --> 0:33:36.680
<v Speaker 4>a fifty two fifty three percent hit rate on their trades.

0:33:37.000 --> 0:33:39.480
<v Speaker 4>It becomes what their skew is how much they make

0:33:39.520 --> 0:33:42.080
<v Speaker 4>on their winners versus how much they lose on their losers.

0:33:42.720 --> 0:33:45.680
<v Speaker 4>So anything where you're actually becoming more in tune to

0:33:45.960 --> 0:33:49.320
<v Speaker 4>your own risk taking, your ability to think in what

0:33:49.800 --> 0:33:53.240
<v Speaker 4>most people call probabilistic terms, or thinking in bets after

0:33:53.280 --> 0:33:56.280
<v Speaker 4>they any Duke book, any exercise like that, and I

0:33:56.280 --> 0:33:58.920
<v Speaker 4>think poker is probably just the most popular. It's also

0:33:58.960 --> 0:34:01.520
<v Speaker 4>a great fun I don't know whether i'd say team

0:34:01.520 --> 0:34:04.920
<v Speaker 4>building game, but it's a fun social game that people

0:34:04.960 --> 0:34:08.440
<v Speaker 4>play often around hedge funds, and it fits with the

0:34:08.480 --> 0:34:10.880
<v Speaker 4>gambling mentality, so we hear about it a lot, but

0:34:10.920 --> 0:34:13.400
<v Speaker 4>there are a lot of different internal games that people

0:34:14.239 --> 0:34:14.919
<v Speaker 4>engage in.

0:34:15.800 --> 0:34:18.120
<v Speaker 2>I just have one last question, and it goes back

0:34:18.120 --> 0:34:19.920
<v Speaker 2>to the role of the analyst, and you mentioned, oh,

0:34:19.920 --> 0:34:22.040
<v Speaker 2>maybe you know, an analyst could be valuable if they

0:34:22.080 --> 0:34:24.279
<v Speaker 2>really know the history of what happens, if they're X

0:34:24.400 --> 0:34:28.000
<v Speaker 2>or Y. I can just look that up on three

0:34:28.120 --> 0:34:32.719
<v Speaker 2>on chagbtr perplexity these days, like, how realistic is it

0:34:32.960 --> 0:34:38.120
<v Speaker 2>in your view that firms could meaningfully reduce analyst headcount

0:34:38.600 --> 0:34:42.279
<v Speaker 2>by using artificial intelligence, or if they save money on

0:34:42.440 --> 0:34:46.280
<v Speaker 2>by using artificial intelligence, would that just create new roles

0:34:46.480 --> 0:34:49.000
<v Speaker 2>for more sort of advanced research. Where are we at

0:34:49.000 --> 0:34:51.319
<v Speaker 2>with this? You must talk to people about what they're

0:34:51.320 --> 0:34:51.759
<v Speaker 2>doing with this.

0:34:52.239 --> 0:34:55.600
<v Speaker 4>I think there's lots of things they can do. And obviously,

0:34:55.840 --> 0:34:58.839
<v Speaker 4>you know you're talking about pret secretive organizations, so there's

0:34:58.840 --> 0:35:02.800
<v Speaker 4>an enterprise sharing issue there to deal with. But yeah,

0:35:02.880 --> 0:35:07.239
<v Speaker 4>a lot of things could be really computerized. But you're

0:35:07.280 --> 0:35:10.959
<v Speaker 4>also looking for people who are going to be able

0:35:10.960 --> 0:35:13.560
<v Speaker 4>to tie the story and the narrative and with what

0:35:13.719 --> 0:35:16.120
<v Speaker 4>was going on with the instruments, and it's probably not

0:35:16.280 --> 0:35:19.239
<v Speaker 4>something so simple as you know, what did the dollar

0:35:19.440 --> 0:35:22.000
<v Speaker 4>in do the last time the FED hiked? It might

0:35:22.040 --> 0:35:25.320
<v Speaker 4>be something more like what was a red screens puts

0:35:25.360 --> 0:35:28.800
<v Speaker 4>foot steepener doing the last time the FED hiked, which

0:35:29.440 --> 0:35:32.640
<v Speaker 4>you're going to require a lot of modifications to those

0:35:32.680 --> 0:35:36.280
<v Speaker 4>AI models. I'm always hesitant to talk about this because

0:35:36.400 --> 0:35:38.520
<v Speaker 4>I can remember we were told that all the paper

0:35:38.520 --> 0:35:40.760
<v Speaker 4>companies were going to go out of business because everybody

0:35:40.800 --> 0:35:42.759
<v Speaker 4>was going to read everything online. And what happened. We

0:35:42.880 --> 0:35:43.759
<v Speaker 4>just all printed it.

0:35:44.520 --> 0:35:47.200
<v Speaker 2>Oh, yeah, that's true. And they and they a lot

0:35:47.239 --> 0:35:50.440
<v Speaker 2>of them also sell cardboard boxes and so they benefited

0:35:50.440 --> 0:35:53.520
<v Speaker 2>from e commerce. Those same companies actually absolutely.

0:35:53.600 --> 0:35:58.719
<v Speaker 4>Georgia Pacific is probably huge in Amazon's warehouse. But I

0:35:58.760 --> 0:36:02.440
<v Speaker 4>think that there will always people who because this industry

0:36:02.480 --> 0:36:04.960
<v Speaker 4>thrives on you know, I can do this even though

0:36:05.000 --> 0:36:07.960
<v Speaker 4>the odds are very much against me, and they will

0:36:07.960 --> 0:36:11.359
<v Speaker 4>definitely use any edge they can get informationally as far

0:36:11.360 --> 0:36:15.960
<v Speaker 4>as analytics or anything like that. But usually there's something

0:36:16.680 --> 0:36:19.400
<v Speaker 4>that you're going to have to ask that maybe not

0:36:19.520 --> 0:36:23.160
<v Speaker 4>everybody understands or nos. I think everybody who's in this

0:36:23.239 --> 0:36:25.239
<v Speaker 4>business got into it in one way or another, and

0:36:25.320 --> 0:36:29.520
<v Speaker 4>somebody handed them what I just generically call, you know,

0:36:29.680 --> 0:36:33.120
<v Speaker 4>street born, which is the market Wizard's books or any

0:36:33.200 --> 0:36:35.640
<v Speaker 4>of those types of things, and they're fantastic because what

0:36:35.760 --> 0:36:37.560
<v Speaker 4>I got out of reading those types of books is

0:36:37.600 --> 0:36:40.360
<v Speaker 4>there's a lot of different ways to make money. You

0:36:40.520 --> 0:36:43.040
<v Speaker 4>just have to find out what you're good at and

0:36:43.320 --> 0:36:46.400
<v Speaker 4>how you can apply your particular set of skills and

0:36:46.480 --> 0:36:49.440
<v Speaker 4>attributes to doing it. And I think that there's going

0:36:49.520 --> 0:36:52.400
<v Speaker 4>to be somebody who gets really good at asking you

0:36:52.560 --> 0:36:55.319
<v Speaker 4>one of these am models market questions, and that person

0:36:55.320 --> 0:36:58.680
<v Speaker 4>who's going to get built up. We're already seeing increase

0:36:58.800 --> 0:37:02.319
<v Speaker 4>for heads of AI at several different funds, and I

0:37:02.320 --> 0:37:04.600
<v Speaker 4>think that that's going to continue as they explore more

0:37:04.640 --> 0:37:07.120
<v Speaker 4>and more, you know, what they can actually do with it.

0:37:07.600 --> 0:37:09.759
<v Speaker 4>They have no problem spending money on the either the

0:37:09.760 --> 0:37:12.239
<v Speaker 4>AI or the human being. It will ultimately come up

0:37:12.280 --> 0:37:14.080
<v Speaker 4>to who can perform.

0:37:14.719 --> 0:37:18.720
<v Speaker 3>So how do you avoid I guess group think among

0:37:18.760 --> 0:37:22.479
<v Speaker 3>your pms, because the whole point of multistrats is those

0:37:22.719 --> 0:37:26.399
<v Speaker 3>uncorrelated returns, and you don't want everyone just putting on

0:37:26.800 --> 0:37:31.480
<v Speaker 3>the same trades, either literally or maybe through another angle.

0:37:31.920 --> 0:37:36.759
<v Speaker 3>And I'm thinking specifically about journalism. So some newspapers used

0:37:36.800 --> 0:37:40.160
<v Speaker 3>to always move reporters from a certain beat after they'd

0:37:40.200 --> 0:37:42.640
<v Speaker 3>been there for like ten years or something, and the

0:37:42.719 --> 0:37:45.160
<v Speaker 3>idea was just to shake it up a little bit

0:37:45.280 --> 0:37:48.120
<v Speaker 3>and make sure that they're not getting like too cozy

0:37:48.200 --> 0:37:51.799
<v Speaker 3>or too comfortable with that particular industry. The downside of

0:37:51.840 --> 0:37:55.360
<v Speaker 3>doing that, of course, is that you lose expertise. But

0:37:55.560 --> 0:37:58.279
<v Speaker 3>I'm just wondering, like, how do people, yeah, how do

0:37:58.360 --> 0:38:01.839
<v Speaker 3>people avoid that group think aspect and make sure that

0:38:01.960 --> 0:38:05.040
<v Speaker 3>everyone's doing you know, new stuff kind of independently.

0:38:05.600 --> 0:38:10.160
<v Speaker 4>Well. One way is limiting the communication between the pods.

0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:13.480
<v Speaker 4>Some places do not really allow their pods to communicate.

0:38:14.160 --> 0:38:19.640
<v Speaker 4>Another way is basically structurally, you don't want to see

0:38:19.680 --> 0:38:22.360
<v Speaker 4>people hang on to each other's trades. You're going to

0:38:22.400 --> 0:38:24.879
<v Speaker 4>be looking at this from you know, a macro view

0:38:24.920 --> 0:38:27.120
<v Speaker 4>within the firm. You're going to see this type of

0:38:27.160 --> 0:38:30.000
<v Speaker 4>trade that this person had on is increasing in size

0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:33.279
<v Speaker 4>in the firm. But by and large, if you've fired right,

0:38:33.360 --> 0:38:37.400
<v Speaker 4>you're going to hire independent thinkers, and a seasoned PM

0:38:37.440 --> 0:38:40.440
<v Speaker 4>will tell you I might like somebody else's idea, but

0:38:40.520 --> 0:38:44.719
<v Speaker 4>I can't really trade it properly unless it's my idea too,

0:38:44.840 --> 0:38:46.839
<v Speaker 4>I kind of have to adopt that as my own.

0:38:47.239 --> 0:38:50.000
<v Speaker 4>So group think is not as prevalent as you would

0:38:50.000 --> 0:38:53.000
<v Speaker 4>think because it's structurally prohibited in some places and the

0:38:53.000 --> 0:38:56.440
<v Speaker 4>places where it's not. You know, a seasoned PM is

0:38:56.480 --> 0:38:59.279
<v Speaker 4>like any I may love that trade that you pitched me, Joe,

0:38:59.320 --> 0:39:02.959
<v Speaker 4>but yours and I can't. I'm not doing my job

0:39:03.080 --> 0:39:04.840
<v Speaker 4>if I say, Joe, when are we getting out of this?

0:39:05.080 --> 0:39:08.080
<v Speaker 4>That's not what I'm paid to do. So part of

0:39:08.120 --> 0:39:09.800
<v Speaker 4>it is on the part of the PM internally, and

0:39:10.040 --> 0:39:11.640
<v Speaker 4>then the other part of it is on the fact

0:39:11.680 --> 0:39:13.640
<v Speaker 4>that they don't want to be seen as copying the

0:39:13.719 --> 0:39:14.880
<v Speaker 4>p next guy's trades.

0:39:15.120 --> 0:39:16.960
<v Speaker 2>All right, but just real quickly, maybe you don't want

0:39:16.960 --> 0:39:19.480
<v Speaker 2>to do groupthink or copy the next guy's trades. But

0:39:19.560 --> 0:39:22.200
<v Speaker 2>if there's a hot beta, right, you're always looking for alpha.

0:39:22.280 --> 0:39:25.560
<v Speaker 2>But if there's a hot beta like AI beta or whatever,

0:39:25.800 --> 0:39:29.560
<v Speaker 2>or falling inflation beta like some of these long term trends,

0:39:29.680 --> 0:39:32.520
<v Speaker 2>but that's not your thing. Do pms find ways to

0:39:32.640 --> 0:39:36.200
<v Speaker 2>backdoor their acid class into the hot trade in a

0:39:36.239 --> 0:39:40.040
<v Speaker 2>way that like may the fact to become trade crowding.

0:39:40.960 --> 0:39:43.600
<v Speaker 4>Yeah. A former boss of mine used to say, there's

0:39:43.640 --> 0:39:47.480
<v Speaker 4>never been a risk management framework the smart trader could outwit.

0:39:48.000 --> 0:39:49.879
<v Speaker 2>That's what I'm wondering. That's like, is it this cat

0:39:49.920 --> 0:39:52.120
<v Speaker 2>and mouse game where you're, in part trying to outwit

0:39:52.160 --> 0:39:54.439
<v Speaker 2>the person who could tap you on the shoulder by

0:39:54.480 --> 0:39:56.359
<v Speaker 2>trading something that looks like something else.

0:39:56.920 --> 0:39:59.759
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, there's a lot of downside to doing that, you know,

0:39:59.760 --> 0:40:02.239
<v Speaker 4>if you don't have a trade kind of properly thought out.

0:40:03.000 --> 0:40:06.239
<v Speaker 4>But you know, in general, if I hire one of

0:40:06.280 --> 0:40:09.280
<v Speaker 4>you to trade credit and the other one to trade

0:40:09.320 --> 0:40:12.600
<v Speaker 4>the front end of the yield curve, and you know,

0:40:12.719 --> 0:40:16.080
<v Speaker 4>all of a sudden, Brazil is very hot the real

0:40:16.719 --> 0:40:19.200
<v Speaker 4>and you're both asking me for limits on the real Like,

0:40:19.719 --> 0:40:23.360
<v Speaker 4>you won't have limits in something that you don't already trade,

0:40:23.760 --> 0:40:27.040
<v Speaker 4>so you can't really deviate for your mandate too much.

0:40:27.560 --> 0:40:29.560
<v Speaker 2>It's kind of a I'll just find a credit spread

0:40:29.600 --> 0:40:32.600
<v Speaker 2>that's correlated with the rail yeah.

0:40:32.320 --> 0:40:34.920
<v Speaker 4>Or you know, there are a lot of ETFs that

0:40:35.000 --> 0:40:39.160
<v Speaker 4>basically contain macro trades if you will, and I have

0:40:39.320 --> 0:40:41.880
<v Speaker 4>often wondered, you know, are those there so that mutual

0:40:41.920 --> 0:40:45.320
<v Speaker 4>fund managers can you know, and investigate equities, can speculate

0:40:45.360 --> 0:40:48.319
<v Speaker 4>on the yield curve. But there are always ways to

0:40:48.480 --> 0:40:51.080
<v Speaker 4>do it. You just have to kind of hire the

0:40:51.160 --> 0:40:54.480
<v Speaker 4>right people who aren't necessarily going to do that. And

0:40:54.520 --> 0:40:56.920
<v Speaker 4>if you get in trouble for something like that, I

0:40:57.000 --> 0:40:58.880
<v Speaker 4>sort of like to say that this is the second

0:40:58.880 --> 0:41:04.000
<v Speaker 4>most waryuristic streight in America. Word gets out is large

0:41:04.040 --> 0:41:06.040
<v Speaker 4>of an industry, it is, it's not that big in

0:41:06.080 --> 0:41:10.640
<v Speaker 4>an individual areas. And if somebody has really done something untoward,

0:41:11.000 --> 0:41:13.520
<v Speaker 4>then it's people are going to hear about it.

0:41:13.640 --> 0:41:16.759
<v Speaker 2>Brian Yelvington, thank you for coming on odd Lots and

0:41:16.800 --> 0:41:21.520
<v Speaker 2>talking about getting and keeping multistraat jobs. Our journey continues.

0:41:21.560 --> 0:41:23.840
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much. Really appreciate chatting with you.

0:41:24.200 --> 0:41:26.120
<v Speaker 4>Thank you, thank you for having me. It's great to

0:41:26.120 --> 0:41:27.160
<v Speaker 4>get to talk to you guys.

0:41:39.960 --> 0:41:41.960
<v Speaker 2>Tracy, if I were like young, I think I or

0:41:42.000 --> 0:41:43.680
<v Speaker 2>if I were in college or something, I think I

0:41:43.680 --> 0:41:45.080
<v Speaker 2>would have taken that trading job.

0:41:45.120 --> 0:41:45.279
<v Speaker 4>Now.

0:41:45.320 --> 0:41:47.839
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I like the way my direction, life direction went.

0:41:47.880 --> 0:41:50.600
<v Speaker 2>But if I wanted to do over, I'm curious what

0:41:50.640 --> 0:41:51.839
<v Speaker 2>that fork in the road looks like.

0:41:51.920 --> 0:41:54.680
<v Speaker 3>There'ought Yeah, that's so sad will.

0:41:54.560 --> 0:41:56.799
<v Speaker 2>Be a different puck, you know, Like I feel like

0:41:57.160 --> 0:41:59.200
<v Speaker 2>I would I would trade you know what happened, there

0:41:59.200 --> 0:42:01.680
<v Speaker 2>would still be an odd one. I would trade for

0:42:01.719 --> 0:42:05.080
<v Speaker 2>a while, I would blow up. I would get a

0:42:05.160 --> 0:42:07.719
<v Speaker 2>job in journalism, and then I would be one of

0:42:07.760 --> 0:42:10.759
<v Speaker 2>those journalists who reminds all of their colleagues all of

0:42:10.800 --> 0:42:12.759
<v Speaker 2>the times that they used work and finance. You know,

0:42:12.880 --> 0:42:14.799
<v Speaker 2>I would find like the person on the call, they're like,

0:42:15.160 --> 0:42:17.200
<v Speaker 2>I just love the you know, It's like I was like, oh,

0:42:17.440 --> 0:42:20.120
<v Speaker 2>I used to work in a multi strategy hedge fun. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,

0:42:20.120 --> 0:42:21.480
<v Speaker 2>well I used to be a trader. Anyway.

0:42:21.520 --> 0:42:23.919
<v Speaker 3>Sorry, keep going, Joe, how many times have you brought

0:42:24.040 --> 0:42:27.160
<v Speaker 3>up that interview with the trading company on this note?

0:42:27.200 --> 0:42:27.439
<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

0:42:27.480 --> 0:42:31.080
<v Speaker 3>Okay, that was really interesting. One thing that kind of

0:42:31.440 --> 0:42:35.680
<v Speaker 3>jumps out at me is the last discussion about you know,

0:42:35.760 --> 0:42:38.959
<v Speaker 3>how do you avoid everyone just taking on the same risk.

0:42:39.719 --> 0:42:44.800
<v Speaker 3>It really seems to me like it's correlation built on correlation,

0:42:44.960 --> 0:42:47.759
<v Speaker 3>built on correlation, right, And I often think correlation is

0:42:47.800 --> 0:42:51.279
<v Speaker 3>one of the hardest things to actually nail down on

0:42:51.360 --> 0:42:55.399
<v Speaker 3>Wall Street. So you know, you gotta wonder so far,

0:42:55.800 --> 0:42:59.960
<v Speaker 3>so far, you know, a bunch of multistrats survived April

0:43:00.080 --> 0:43:02.360
<v Speaker 3>pretty well, so I guess we'll see.

0:43:02.800 --> 0:43:05.160
<v Speaker 2>I think if I were a risk manager and I

0:43:05.239 --> 0:43:09.000
<v Speaker 2>had one person trading credit and the other person trading

0:43:09.040 --> 0:43:11.680
<v Speaker 2>the short end of the old curve, and suddenly there

0:43:11.680 --> 0:43:14.680
<v Speaker 2>are month to month return started looking identical, and it

0:43:14.760 --> 0:43:18.440
<v Speaker 2>happened to be identical with the person who traded Brazilian rayal.

0:43:18.920 --> 0:43:22.160
<v Speaker 2>That would set off a red flag for me. You know, like,

0:43:22.200 --> 0:43:26.560
<v Speaker 2>I feel like the return profile itself is probably part

0:43:26.600 --> 0:43:29.520
<v Speaker 2>of the hint, right that even if you can't really

0:43:29.640 --> 0:43:33.640
<v Speaker 2>articulate why this person's traded is secretly this person's trade

0:43:33.680 --> 0:43:36.680
<v Speaker 2>in disguise. If there re tuned profile looks too similar,

0:43:36.719 --> 0:43:38.680
<v Speaker 2>that probably sets off some red flags.

0:43:39.000 --> 0:43:42.600
<v Speaker 3>We got to talk to a risk manager, don't Yeah,

0:43:42.640 --> 0:43:43.359
<v Speaker 3>we should do that.

0:43:43.440 --> 0:43:46.000
<v Speaker 2>Okay, if you're a risk manager, you want to talk

0:43:46.040 --> 0:43:48.440
<v Speaker 2>about what that job is like or if you know,

0:43:48.480 --> 0:43:50.520
<v Speaker 2>one shoots a message.

0:43:50.239 --> 0:43:51.319
<v Speaker 3>All right, shall we leave it there.

0:43:51.400 --> 0:43:52.080
<v Speaker 2>Let's leave it there.

0:43:52.200 --> 0:43:54.600
<v Speaker 3>This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast.

0:43:54.719 --> 0:43:58.000
<v Speaker 3>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

0:43:57.760 --> 0:44:00.600
<v Speaker 2>And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

0:44:00.800 --> 0:44:04.040
<v Speaker 2>Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carman Arman dash Ol

0:44:04.080 --> 0:44:07.399
<v Speaker 2>Bennett at Dashbot and Kilbrooks at Kilbrooks. From our Odd

0:44:07.440 --> 0:44:10.000
<v Speaker 2>Lots content go to Bloomberg dot com slash od lots

0:44:10.000 --> 0:44:12.600
<v Speaker 2>were the daily newsletter and all of our episodes, and

0:44:12.640 --> 0:44:14.680
<v Speaker 2>you can chat about all of these topics twenty four

0:44:14.719 --> 0:44:18.839
<v Speaker 2>to seven in our discord Discord dot gg slash od lots.

0:44:18.680 --> 0:44:21.160
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0:44:21.400 --> 0:44:25.520
<v Speaker 3>ongoing exploration of multistrap funds, then please leave us a

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