1 00:00:01,240 --> 00:00:08,799 Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel 2 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: Football Seasons. Here no better place to get in on 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: the action. FanDuel app is safe, you get paid fast, 4 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,760 Speaker 1: A lot of ways to play the spread, the money line, 5 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: team totals, players, props, a lot of stuff over unders, 6 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 1: jump into the action. Same game parlays are my favorite. 7 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fan 8 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 1: Duel app today. All right, let's have some thoughts on 9 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: the rams unspectacular performance as Buffalo dominates the Rams offensive 10 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: line and overall dominates Matt Stafford mcvah and the Rams offense. 11 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: First time Sean mcvay's lost an opener, we'll get to 12 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: fake questions, real answers, and sharp versus square with Chad 13 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: Millman after my rent. So two big thoughts. Mahomes maybe 14 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: the best quarterback in the NFL, or some would say 15 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers the back to back MVP. Josh Allen's the 16 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 1: most talented quarterback in the NFL. Much bigger than Rogers 17 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: and Mahomes, runs much better than Rogers and Mahomes, much 18 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: stronger than Rogers and Mahomes. Because of his size, hasn't 19 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: been hurt like Rogers and Mahomes. He's a little wild 20 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: at times. He takes big swings, but it's one of 21 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 1: the things I really like about the young quarterbacks, Herberts 22 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: and Burrow, Josh Allen. You know, sometimes I feel like 23 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: the Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Rogers really good, but they 24 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: kind of play safe. Josh Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, they just 25 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: let it rip. And that's why I find Josh Allen 26 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: the most entertaining player in the league to watch. He's 27 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 1: a little bit Cam Newton, but a much better thrower. 28 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: He's a little bit Big Ben, but I think a 29 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: better runner. I don't think we've ever seen anything like him. 30 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 1: It reminds me of Yannis when he broke into the NBA. 31 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: Yannis was not as polished as Lebron. He wasn't as 32 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: great offensively as Kevin Durant, couldn't shoot like Steph Curry. 33 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: But about four years ago, when you would watch Yannis, 34 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: like watching Josh Allen, you would go, oh, he's the 35 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: most talented guy in the league. He can dominate at 36 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 1: the rim, he can shoot, he can handle the ball, 37 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,240 Speaker 1: he can dominate in the offensive end. You can't stop 38 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 1: him inside and it just took a while for Yannis 39 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: to develop some nuances, refine sand papers game, and now 40 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: he's the most dominant player in the league. It's no 41 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: longer Durant or Lebron or Steph Curry, it's Yannis. And 42 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: I feel watching Alan, he was easily the best player 43 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 1: on a field with multiple Hall of So that's my 44 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: first takeaway. And I feel with Josh Allen. When somebody's 45 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:10,399 Speaker 1: really great, they make other great players look pretty ordinary. 46 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 1: You put Jordan on the floor with Charles Barkley, and 47 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 1: he made Charles one of the fifteen best players I've 48 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,959 Speaker 1: ever seen, look kind of ordinary. How average did Matt 49 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: Stafford look? He looked small, he looked reluctant, He couldn't 50 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: avoid sacks, he couldn't push the ball down the field consistently. 51 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: So you know, Allen looked like he was at a 52 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: completely different jet stream than Stafford. So let's pivot now 53 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: to Stafford. It was a bad performance by the Rams. 54 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: And when a team struggles offensively, it's usually two reasons. 55 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: One of them your offensive line's getting worked. So over 56 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: the course of a season, you can correct a lot 57 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: of your problems. For instance, Allen Robinson didn't do much well. 58 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 1: Stafford missed some camp. Robinson is new. They'll be better 59 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: down the line. Cam Acre, the running back, appears to 60 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 1: be in the doghouse. He didn't play. He probably will 61 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: as the season progresses. Obji'll come back. Stafford will have 62 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 1: better nights. But the problem of the offensive line. I 63 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: said this all week on FS one and Fox Sports radios. 64 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 1: Andrew Whitworth is going to get Hall of Fame votes. 65 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: And the backup to Whitworth is capable, but he's not elite. 66 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 1: And boy did you see that now? There's not a 67 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 1: lot of Von Millers in the NFL. That's about as 68 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 1: good a Russia And as he'll face, he will face 69 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: a Bosa a couple of times with the Niners. And 70 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 1: the Bills can rotate eight to nine defensive linemen. I 71 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 1: mean they really, they are the deepest defensive front in 72 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:45,679 Speaker 1: the league. So that's about as good a defensive front 73 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 1: and as good as an edge rusher as the Rams 74 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 1: note Boom in the left tackle replacing Andrew Whitworth will 75 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: face all year. Not a lot of Sundays, Monday's Thursdays 76 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: are going to look like that. That said, a lot 77 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: of the Rams issues timing between Stafford and Robinson, the 78 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: availability of cam Akers. Those are correctable. If you're not 79 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: great at left tackle, nobody's given you one in the 80 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: middle of a season. Now, maybe you get to the 81 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 1: trading deadline and a team with a good left tackle says, 82 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: we'll give them to you, give us some draft picks, 83 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 1: and maybe the Rams say, listen, we just we got 84 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 1: to get better at left tackle. But that is a position. 85 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 1: There's a reason that the Niners went out and paid 86 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: a fortune for a left tackle, Miami Dolphins went to 87 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,479 Speaker 1: the Saints and paid a fortune for a left tackle. 88 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: When you have a quarterback like a Garoppolo not overly mobile, 89 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 1: or a Stafford, you know, a toua by that left 90 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: tackles important and you could really see all night long 91 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: their centers find their right tackles. Fine, Rams aren't very 92 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 1: good right now a left tackle, they're capable. And again 93 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 1: Buffalo is so loaded on the defensive front. It was 94 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,840 Speaker 1: a turnstyle. I mean, von Miller really had his way, 95 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 1: and so that's part of the problems. And I'm not 96 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 1: sure how correctable it is. Do you wait to the 97 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: trading deadline, do you cross your fingers you don't face 98 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: Buffalo again. Listen, I had the Bills beating the Rams 99 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: and the Super Bowl, so you know these are really 100 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 1: elite teams. But I thought all the problems started with 101 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 1: the Rams. O line gave up what six seven sacks? 102 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: Stafford at the end had his third interception. It all 103 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: starts there. Now we heard about Stafford's elbow offseason. It 104 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: was sore. It was also sore last year. Did the 105 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: Rams downplay the incident? Stafford just did not throw the 106 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,599 Speaker 1: ball down the field. Now there's no o bj Alan 107 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: Robinson's not really a deep threat. Cooper cup is occasionally, 108 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 1: but as good as less Snead is as a GM 109 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 1: A couple of years ago. Second round, his first pick 110 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:58,039 Speaker 1: was two two at well the wide receiver Ole Miss. 111 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: He's been a bust and less Need does not have 112 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: a lot of busts. But he's small. I've been told 113 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 1: he's kind of immature. He's not ready to play, he's 114 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: not dependable. Stafford doesn't really trust him. They really need 115 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: an over the top component. That's why they reached for 116 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 1: him in the second round. Tiny guy way one hundred 117 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:24,559 Speaker 1: and seventy four out of college, That's why they reached 118 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: for him. They felt Cooper Cup could give them the 119 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: intermediates you know of. Van Jefferson could give them intermediates 120 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: Robert Woods similar. They didn't have an over the top 121 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: vertical threat at well. Looks like a bust. So that's 122 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: why you probably you probably stick around with OBJ. Like 123 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: when I watched the night, my takeaway was, all right, 124 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: I'm not moving OBJ. That's seven and a half million 125 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: a halve in cap space. I'm giving it to OBJ. Now. 126 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: He may not play till November. But you know, the 127 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:57,119 Speaker 1: overwhelming takeaway is Josh Allen was easily the best player 128 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: on the field. The Rams offensive line was easily the 129 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: weakest unit on the field. Ball game. All right, fake questions, 130 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: real answers, plus Chad Milman for my sharp or square 131 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: segment for the next what fifteen twenty weeks? Fake questions, 132 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: real answers, stuff I want to talk about. Don't want 133 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: to wait for you to ask me. Fake questions, real answers. 134 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: Here we go, Dear Colin, does Zach Wilson's injury already 135 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: confirm all your concerns about him? Yes? I said, of 136 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: all the first round quarterbacks, he had a chance to bust, 137 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: and it wasn't all his fault Woody Johnson, and I've 138 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: known three different head coaches who have worked for him 139 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: Rex Ryan Herm Edwards, Eric Mangini. He is not a 140 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: good owner. I like Joe Douglas the GM, but I 141 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:49,679 Speaker 1: think he missed on vecton the left tackle. Robert Sala 142 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: fourth best coach, arguably in his own division. And Zach 143 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 1: Wilson is what I thought he would be a little small, 144 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: a little cocky, and a little careless. He had one 145 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: good game last year. I don't think he's talented enough 146 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:09,599 Speaker 1: and most aren't to overcome a bad O line, bad ownership, 147 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,439 Speaker 1: and the fourth best coach in a division doesn't mean 148 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 1: he can't rebound. But my concerns about him size, kind 149 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: of small, O line, too much hero ball, tends to 150 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 1: be a little reckless have absolutely all been confirmed. Dear Colin, 151 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 1: what do you make of the off the leash t 152 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: shirts printed by Baker Mayfield before he faces the Browns? Listen? 153 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: We all have friends, and it took me a long 154 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: time to realize this, but sometimes you have to accept 155 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 1: friends for who they are. We all have the perpetually 156 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: late friend, we all have the moody friend. Listen, even 157 00:09:56,679 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 1: if you like Baker Mayfield, you would admit he's impulsive. 158 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: He can't help himself. We've all got friends like that. 159 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: You know, you give him a hundred bucks, it burns 160 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: a hole in their pocket. I think Baker's always been 161 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: able to harness his emotion for great individual revenge game performances. 162 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: That's why I think he'll beat Cleveland. But he's undisciplined. 163 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 1: He can't help himself. So if you like him, he 164 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 1: just got to accept him for what he is. Dear Colin, 165 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:31,199 Speaker 1: Clemson football coach Dabo Sweeney new contract ten years, a 166 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:35,719 Speaker 1: hundred and fifteen million. Let me guess you think it's 167 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 1: a fair deal. Actually, I think he's underpaid. Remember in baseball, 168 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 1: they have something called the war wins above replacement. We 169 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 1: should have in college football car coach above replacement. Anybody 170 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: that coached at Clemson, anybody, an average coach, would make 171 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 1: seven to seven and a half million. So with this contract, 172 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: he's going to make about, you know, eleven million. So 173 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:07,079 Speaker 1: what he's making is four million dollars more than anybody 174 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 1: would make even if they were just okay at Clemson. 175 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 1: Is Dabo Sweeney worth four million dollars a year more? Well, 176 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 1: considering Clemson makes about eight million dollars a home game, 177 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: and he wins almost all home games. I'm gonna say 178 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: he's worth it. I'll say it again when the Clemsons, 179 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:35,079 Speaker 1: the Oklahoma's, the Texas, the usc the Alabama's, Michigan's are winning, 180 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 1: it's not crazy if you tie revenue to great coaching. 181 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 1: Michigan got empty really fast pre Harbaugh Coliseum got empty 182 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:52,960 Speaker 1: real fast pre Lincoln Riley fifteen million, twenty million dollars 183 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: a year. We all know college football as a business 184 00:11:56,360 --> 00:12:00,839 Speaker 1: doesn't bother me at all. Dear Colin, who's the most 185 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 1: overrated good team in the NFL entering the season? I 186 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: don't think it's close. The Dallas Cowboys, Vegas FanDuel all 187 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: these places that make prognostications have Dallas ninth ninth best 188 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:21,680 Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds, tied with the ravens Lamar Jackson, in 189 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 1: my opinions, better than Dak. The owners better, the front 190 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 1: office is better, and the coach is way better. How 191 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: do they both have top nine odds? Let me ask 192 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: you this, what is Dallas great at today? Is Dak great? Oh? 193 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 1: Stop it? No? Receiving corps was great, Yes, it was 194 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 1: a year ago when they had Ceedee lamb Amari Cooper 195 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: and Cedric Wilson. It is no longer great. What about 196 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 1: Zeke He's looked great in camp. He's been declining for 197 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: three years. The offensive line was great, now below average. 198 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: They lost Randy Gregory, so the defensive line is not 199 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: as good as last year. Treyvon Diggs is a high risk, 200 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: higher reward corner who didn't have a great camp. Yes, 201 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: Michael Parsons is great, so is their right guard Zack Martin. 202 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: They have two Hall of Fame talents. There's twenty two 203 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 1: starters on offense and defense alone. I don't think they're 204 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: a top fifteen team in the NFL. In fact, if 205 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 1: you put them in the AFC West with the Broncos, 206 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the Chargers, and the Raiders, if they would 207 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: allow a fifth team, they would be fifth in the 208 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 1: AFC West. Because the Raiders do some things really well, 209 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: like past the ball. They have great weapons hunter Renfro, 210 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs. They have great players, 211 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: good left tackle Colton Miller, young healthy. The Raiders do 212 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 1: some things exceptionally well. They have two elite pass rushers, 213 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: including Max Crosby, what are the Cowboys great at? I 214 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 1: don't think they're great at anything, front office, owner, coach, quarterback. 215 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 1: There's an argument Dacks their third best player. He ain't close. 216 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,440 Speaker 1: He is not close to a top five quarterback in 217 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 1: this league. Kick off Week one with Fan Duel, America's 218 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: number one sports book. Joined today, Get started one hundred 219 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in free bets, Get granted when you 220 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: place your first five dollars bet. Promo code though, is 221 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: Colin to get in on the action. Olway's Colin turn 222 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: game day into payday. 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All of our 249 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: odds provided by fanduels starting today for the next twenty 250 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: weeks we bring him on every Friday morning. We call 251 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: it Sharper Square. I am a square. I will give 252 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: him the games I'm considering for my blazing five, I 253 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: usually have about seven. I'm leaning one way, and then 254 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 1: at the end, I'll say, you give me a really 255 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 1: sharp pick on your own, and maybe I'll steal that. 256 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: It's all about me. Listen, it is Colin Cowher's Volume 257 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: podcast network. Okay, mistakes. Look at this right here. That 258 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: espresso is Fancytown. Yeah, okay, let's get to the ones 259 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: I've liked all offseason. I've already laid a little let 260 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: us Vikings. It's now one and a half. I got 261 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: a better line Vikings plus one and a half at 262 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 1: home where they have always Kirk Cousins has always been 263 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: formidable against the Packers. Say what you want about Captain Kirk. 264 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 1: I think they're going to win straight out. I think 265 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 1: Green Bay by Thanksgiving October. Maybe the rookies then then 266 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: are ready to be big contributors. I don't think it's 267 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: going to be the first week of the season. I'm 268 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,360 Speaker 1: going to take the Vikings straight out sharp or square 269 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 1: that is very sharp, very very sharp. The Packers going 270 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 1: on the road to play the Vikings. Everyone will always 271 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: make a big deal about how Aaron Rodgers has owned 272 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 1: his division, how Aaron Rodgers against the spread has owned 273 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: his division. The majority of that is against the Lions 274 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 1: and the Bears. It's not as much success against the Vikings. 275 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 1: And I do think we saw some of this last 276 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: year early in the season with the Packers too. You 277 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: are going to have a transition period without Davante Adams, who, 278 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 1: by the way, was especially effective against the Vikings. So 279 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,360 Speaker 1: now Aaron Rodgers is going in with receivers nobody's heard 280 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 1: of who he hasn't really played with. Alan Lazard has 281 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:09,639 Speaker 1: been banged up, and you've got an offense in Minnesota 282 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:13,440 Speaker 1: again Captain Kirk who knows. But you've got a great 283 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: running back, You've got an all pro caliber receiver. You've 284 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: got an offense that will probably be more explosive, probably 285 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 1: be a lot more efficient on first down, and not 286 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,360 Speaker 1: put Kirk Cousins in positions where he has to make 287 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 1: bad decisions. You mentioned this line has moved. That is 288 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,200 Speaker 1: a fact. It has moved from about two and a 289 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 1: half down to right now. It's Minnesota is let's say 290 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: plus one and a half, So sharp my friend. Okay, 291 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,360 Speaker 1: this one's a little dicier because the Lions old lines 292 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 1: a tad beat up and it is the strength of 293 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,640 Speaker 1: their football team. I'm going to take Detroit now down 294 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:56,080 Speaker 1: to three and a half at home, lively dog against Philadelphia. 295 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: I think Philadelphia by years and is a better team. 296 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 1: But again, lesser teams don't know they're lesser teams in September, 297 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 1: especially a Dan Campbell team that's chewing up kneecaps and 298 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: running through firewalls. So I like the Lions here getting 299 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 1: more than a field goal at home. Sharper Square, classic 300 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 1: sharp spot. This is one that Wise Guys pegged as 301 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: soon as the lines came out the Lions. You mentioned 302 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 1: the offensive line. It is a strength of their team. 303 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 1: It is one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. 304 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,959 Speaker 1: They've also got really good talent on the edges at 305 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: running back and at receiver. Jared Goff is perfectly serviceable. 306 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: It's been a team that last year, even in spite 307 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: of having a three thirteen in one record, never gave up, 308 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 1: especially against the spread. They were effective. The Wise guys 309 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:55,679 Speaker 1: fell in love with them. They were a team that 310 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 1: everybody is pagged as being one of those teams that 311 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: will not quit. Wise, guys are going to be with 312 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 1: this team all season long. They like the Lions plus four. 313 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:06,119 Speaker 1: A lot of them are taking a little bit of 314 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 1: a taste on the money line for the Lions to 315 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 1: win outright, all right? I like dogs. This week Texans 316 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 1: plus seven and a half hosting the Colts. The Culture, 317 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 1: the better team they have in recent years, started slow. 318 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: Matt Ryan is new. I think they need and will 319 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:30,880 Speaker 1: eventually get production from Alec Pierce, the early draft pick 320 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 1: from Cincinnati. But right now, you cross your fingers if 321 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: Paris Campbell can be productive and healthy. It's kind of 322 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: a one man band in Michael Pittman. The Culture gonna 323 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:45,959 Speaker 1: win some low scoring games this year. And Davis Mills 324 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 1: ain't bad. It's not bad. I think a live dog. 325 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: I think you've got new people in the building. They 326 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: play with a lot of spirit early. I think it's 327 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: closer than we think. I'm taking in Texans seven and 328 00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: a half, sharp or square, it's totally sharp. When you 329 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: were saying not bad, not bad, if I closed my eyes, 330 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 1: it's almost like I was on crib your enthusiasm, I 331 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: could hear he is not bad. He's not bad. Davis 332 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: Mills bad if he had stayed If he had stayed 333 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 1: in college for another year, you could argue he would 334 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 1: have been top ten quarterback drafted in the NFL this year. 335 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: There wouldn't have been talking about Kenny Pickett or anybody else. 336 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 1: That would have been Davis Mills because he played well 337 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 1: enough as a rookie to earn the right to have 338 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: that job. Hey, by the way, his completion percentage his 339 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: first year with an average O line, his passer rating. 340 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 1: I've said this about Tuah. If you'd never seen him 341 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: play and looked at his numbers and said, defensive coach, 342 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,439 Speaker 1: battle line, you'd be like, Then you see Tuah and 343 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 1: you're like, he's small. His deep ball dies. If you 344 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: never saw Davis Mills play and he said, second worst 345 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 1: old line in the league, not much to work with, 346 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:05,920 Speaker 1: bad coach. Here's the numbers. He's got a fairly live 347 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: arm and a long neck, and everybody knows that when 348 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 1: you have a really long neck that portends greatness in 349 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 1: a quarterback. That's why that's why the wise guys love 350 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,120 Speaker 1: the Texans right now. Well, it's interesting. This is the 351 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 1: biggest delta between the public betting markets and the professional 352 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,360 Speaker 1: betting markets. So if you go to Action network dot com, 353 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 1: you look in the app, you can see how many 354 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: tickets are a game, the percentage of the betting tickets 355 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 1: and the percentage of the money. Right now, looking at 356 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: the stats, it's about fifty five percent of the tickets 357 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 1: are on the Colts. Tickets are always an indication of 358 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: public money. The percentage of money is eighty six percent. 359 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 1: That is an indication of professionals liking the Texans. Eighty 360 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 1: six percent on the Texans biggest delta there is of 361 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: any game. It's why even though the majority of the 362 00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 1: bets are coming in on the Colts, the line has 363 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,120 Speaker 1: moved down. It was at eight and a half on Sunday, 364 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: it went down to seven and a half. Kylin, it's 365 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 1: now at seven. This is when I would say, all right, 366 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:10,679 Speaker 1: it could be time to back off. You want to 367 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: be careful. But the Texans wise guys love them. Okay, 368 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw this at you. This is the last 369 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,479 Speaker 1: dog I'll throw you because I like some favorites, So 370 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: this is the last dog. Bears now is down to 371 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: six and a half. Don't like it as much at seven. 372 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 1: I'm very interested. So what we know about Trey Lance 373 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 1: at this point. He completes fifty five percent of his 374 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 1: throws when he plays NFL games, and Kyle Shanahanna has 375 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: publicly as knowledge he's not consistent. That's what we know. 376 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:49,439 Speaker 1: We know center, right guard, right tackle, Niners OH line 377 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:53,760 Speaker 1: is okay. We know the Niners have a much much 378 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 1: better roster. But Matt Eberflus defensive coach, first game, throw 379 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: the tricks at you. A decent front seven. I think 380 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: their corners are okay. I think it's low scoring. I 381 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 1: think Kyle Shanahan has an uber conservative game plan, keep 382 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,880 Speaker 1: Chicago close even if they sputter offensively. If it gets 383 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:24,879 Speaker 1: to seven, sharper square, I take the Bears. Yeah. I agree. 384 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 1: It was actually a game that I was struggling with 385 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,159 Speaker 1: a lot this week because I'm from Chicago, because I 386 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,919 Speaker 1: have such low expectations for the Bears. This is a 387 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 1: great lesson for anybody who's sort of new to gambling, 388 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 1: is how to keep your emotional biases out of it. 389 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 1: Because you think you know your team better, you think 390 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 1: you have an edge because you understand philosophy, you understand personnel, 391 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: you understand scheme, whatever it is. At the end, of 392 00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: the day, you bet the number, and the number this 393 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 1: morning was Bears plus seven. I woke up this morning 394 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 1: and I was like, what am I doing? How am 395 00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 1: I not betting the Bears plus seven with essentially rookie 396 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:05,640 Speaker 1: quarterback going on the road. It's a huge number. If 397 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: it gets back to seven, people should take it. At 398 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,199 Speaker 1: six and a half, it's a pass, Okay, I have 399 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: one more dog. I'm interested in the numbers. Not ideal, 400 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: but I think they could win handily Jags plus two 401 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 1: and a half against the Commanders. Commanders had a bad camp. 402 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 1: Jags by all accounts, great camp, and if you look 403 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 1: at the biggest free agent spender over the last five 404 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:32,439 Speaker 1: six years, they generally improve their win total substantially. I 405 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,679 Speaker 1: think the Jags are a better team. We don't know 406 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 1: it yet, but I think they're a better team. I 407 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,639 Speaker 1: think they're going to go into DC and beat the Commanders. 408 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: Sharper square, totally sharp. This is another one of those 409 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 1: numbers that has dropped precipitously at one through a key number. 410 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 1: A key number is three. It's called the key number 411 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 1: because a majority of games land on key numbers three, seven, ten, 412 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,680 Speaker 1: four is becoming a key number because of the two 413 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 1: point conversion. The Jags were four point underdogs. They are 414 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 1: now two and a half point underdogs. That number is dropping, 415 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,679 Speaker 1: by the way, It will probably be at two before kickoff, 416 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,719 Speaker 1: if not one and a half. Everyone agrees with you, 417 00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 1: look to me, I'm very bullish on the Jacks. We 418 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 1: talked about this on the Favorite podcast. We love the 419 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 1: Jags as seven and a half to one to win 420 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 1: the AFC South. I bet Trevor Lawrence seventy to one 421 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:35,160 Speaker 1: to lead the NFL in touchdown passes. I could see 422 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,159 Speaker 1: a lot of people talking about Trevor Lawrence as an 423 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 1: MVP candidate. We can say how we want about Frank 424 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 1: Reich and what he did with Nick Foles, and he 425 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 1: was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles when they won 426 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Doug Peterson was the coach. Doug Peterson 427 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 1: did plenty, and with the way Frank Reich has handled 428 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,400 Speaker 1: quarterbacks the last few years, you've seen that Doug Peterson 429 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 1: probably was much more involved than anybody who's giving them 430 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:02,399 Speaker 1: credit for. You give a really awful, freewheeling offensive coach 431 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: a quarterback like Trevor Lawrence, I'd say go get the 432 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,360 Speaker 1: Jags as AFC South to win before the season kicks off. 433 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: Definitely take the Jags at plus two and a half. Okay, 434 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 1: here are my favorites. In his career, the very impulsive 435 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:22,359 Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield has been able to harness that emotion for 436 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:28,400 Speaker 1: singular games. The revenge win over Ohio State, the revenge 437 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 1: wins over Texas Tech where he had huge games, the 438 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 1: revenge win over Hugh Jackson when he went to the Bengals, 439 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 1: the win over Pittsburgh. Now, over the course of time, 440 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: he is impulsive and he can't channel that emotion properly. 441 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 1: He's got too much of an ego. He tends to 442 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,199 Speaker 1: be again, somebody that doesn't take a deep breath. He 443 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,439 Speaker 1: never falls on the sword. He creates controversies instead of 444 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,439 Speaker 1: suppressing them. Is what's the great quarterbacks do. But in 445 00:27:56,480 --> 00:28:00,480 Speaker 1: these one game situations, chip on his should, I'm going 446 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,479 Speaker 1: to prove you wrong. I've seen it at Oklahoma, I 447 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:07,480 Speaker 1: saw it in Cleveland. He's been very good. He can 448 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,479 Speaker 1: harness it for a week. Carolina is going to win 449 00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 1: outright minus one and a half. They were three and 450 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,159 Speaker 1: oz to start the year last year with Darnold, and 451 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:18,360 Speaker 1: they're a better football team. I like Carolina to win 452 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 1: this game by a touchdown. Sharper Sharp, I'm huge on 453 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 1: Carolina this year as well. I have them over six 454 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 1: and a half wins. I'm a big fan of Baker 455 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,439 Speaker 1: in this spot last year for everything you said is true. 456 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 1: He gets in his own way. He was also injured 457 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 1: last year, and I think that had a big impact 458 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: on his ability to perform. I think in one game, 459 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 1: first game of the year, against a team that doesn't 460 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 1: have its top quarterback that he is very bitter about. 461 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 1: That alone makes it the right side. I also think 462 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 1: the Panthers, like at home, their defense is improved just 463 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,239 Speaker 1: by virtue of Acre Mayfield being on the offense than 464 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 1: Sam Darnold being on the offense. It gives them more 465 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: of an opportunity to perform better. Christian McCaffrey healthy, maybe 466 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 1: for the only time this year because they'll have to 467 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:15,640 Speaker 1: play a game, So now it's a good time to 468 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 1: bet the Panthers. So yes, one hundred percent, especially with 469 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 1: this line dropping a little bit. Okay, one more favorite. 470 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 1: I hate doing this. I really hate it because I 471 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 1: get talked into stuff. Kansas City minus five and a half. Okay, 472 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 1: time out. Arizona had a weird offseason. JJ Watt may 473 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 1: not play, DeAndre Hopkins will not play. Kansas City Andy 474 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 1: Reid is absolutely a messiah in September. They've got a 475 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 1: lot to prove on the Tyreek Hill deal. They want 476 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 1: to you know, there's a lot of there's a lot 477 00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 1: of questions about well they be as productive. I think 478 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 1: they'll be as productive. I don't think they'll have the 479 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:07,400 Speaker 1: lightning strike ability with Tyreek Hill. He's your errand judge. 480 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,240 Speaker 1: You can get you can get runs very fast. That 481 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 1: won't be that team, but the production will not drop. 482 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 1: I think Kansas City could could pound him a little bit. Here. 483 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:26,040 Speaker 1: Chiefs minus five and a half sharper square right side, 484 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 1: wrong number, so good instincts. This is funny because over 485 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 1: the years we've known each other for a long time, 486 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 1: you've gotten much much sharper when it comes to these 487 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,800 Speaker 1: kinds of conversations and a lot of your picks today, 488 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:46,719 Speaker 1: the Texans, the lie Ends like these are very sharp picks. 489 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 1: One of the basic principles in betting. And I explain 490 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: this because there's probably a lot of new people listening 491 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 1: who are are net new to betting, right because your 492 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 1: podcast network is getting so much bigger, So you want 493 00:30:59,920 --> 00:31:03,040 Speaker 1: to get the best of the number. The best of 494 00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: the number here was three. And so now what's happened 495 00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 1: is there's been a backlash to the Kansas City backlash. 496 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:14,360 Speaker 1: People were like, oh, without Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs are screwed. 497 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes right, and people started to 498 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 1: doubt his ability. He's a future Hall of Fame quarterback 499 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,320 Speaker 1: who's won an MVP and has won a Super Bowl 500 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,560 Speaker 1: and can perform like a few people we've ever seen. 501 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 1: Their offensive line is still really good. They still have 502 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,800 Speaker 1: really talented players. The Arizona Cardinals barely can put together 503 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 1: a defense right now. They've got Kyler Murray who was inconsistent. 504 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 1: They've got Cliff Kingsbury who's consistently inconsistent when it comes 505 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 1: to calling plays. They're missing their best wide receiver. To me, 506 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 1: the Chiefs are the right side. But I'm not going 507 00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 1: to do it because if this game lands on three 508 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:56,479 Speaker 1: or four, I'm going to be angry and I'm going 509 00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:58,800 Speaker 1: to realize why didn't I bet the best of the number. 510 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 1: So for me, it's a ass But I think it's 511 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,520 Speaker 1: the right side. Okay. And finally, on sharp and Square, 512 00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:09,160 Speaker 1: I always say, you like these ugly games, and I 513 00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 1: do not. If I can't watch it or don't want 514 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:12,880 Speaker 1: to watch it, I have a hard time betting it. 515 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 1: So give me a game this week that the Sharps 516 00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 1: the real The guys that have that have uh they 517 00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 1: live in Chicago and eat nothing but steaks. Who are 518 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 1: they betting this week? Um, there's a couple of games 519 00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,960 Speaker 1: we didn't talk about. I'm gonna, I'm gonna give you 520 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 1: some options and then I'm gone. I'm talking about I'm 521 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,640 Speaker 1: a guess one. Okay, the guys that have a t 522 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:42,120 Speaker 1: bone for breakfast like the Giants. The Giants are an 523 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,600 Speaker 1: interesting one. Uh. There is a lot of sharp sentiment 524 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,680 Speaker 1: on the Giants. Personally, I'm not buying it, Uh, not 525 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 1: at all. Now. Daniel Jones nine or no on the 526 00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:55,240 Speaker 1: road against the spread, so he obviously he's always been. 527 00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 1: That's the that's sort of the line on him is 528 00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 1: that he's better away from home than he is at home. 529 00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,720 Speaker 1: I just don't think he's good enough. And I think 530 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 1: the stat is rookie head coaches in their first game 531 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,920 Speaker 1: are three and nineteen since twenty and eighteen. So now 532 00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 1: you've got a rookie head coach going on the road 533 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 1: to play a team that has a very good head 534 00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 1: coach and a competent quarterback and they're not huge favorites. 535 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,480 Speaker 1: A lot of wise guys like the spot. They've been 536 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 1: getting a lot of sentiment. I'm not a Giants fan 537 00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,320 Speaker 1: in this spot. There's a couple of others that are 538 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,680 Speaker 1: interesting to me. Would you like to guess again? You 539 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:36,120 Speaker 1: want me to give you one, I'm done guessing, all okay? 540 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 1: I bet the Steelers plus six and a half. And 541 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,480 Speaker 1: to me, that number is too big, too much hype 542 00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:49,560 Speaker 1: on the Bengals. It's irrational. The numbers inflated, too much 543 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 1: of a sort of discount on Mitch Trubisky being the quarterback. 544 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin is the guy you bet in an underdog spot. 545 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 1: Don't forget Duck Hodges, don't forget Easton Rudolph, Don't forget 546 00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 1: this guy has won with bad quarterbacks throughout his career. 547 00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,840 Speaker 1: He's one of the best coaches against the spread since 548 00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,640 Speaker 1: he's been in the league. It's a rob rob Mike 549 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,839 Speaker 1: Tomlin spot. He lives for these spots. He's terrible when 550 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,800 Speaker 1: he's a favorite at home on the road. Mike Tomlin 551 00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,560 Speaker 1: with a good defense. You're back Mike Tomline at plus 552 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,560 Speaker 1: six and a half. But the game that I like, 553 00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:25,759 Speaker 1: that I'm going to convince you of and you would 554 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:30,840 Speaker 1: never watch this game. The Atlanta Falcons plus five and 555 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:36,400 Speaker 1: a half at home against the New Orleans Saints. Since 556 00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 1: two thousand and four divisional dogs in Week one, fifty eight, 557 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,920 Speaker 1: thirty two and two against the spread. That's sixty four 558 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:48,160 Speaker 1: percent over the last eight years. That's there are twenty 559 00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,719 Speaker 1: nine and nine and if you shrink it even more 560 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen, the percentage is even greater. I've got 561 00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:01,640 Speaker 1: a rookie head coach going on the road, a very inconsistent, 562 00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:06,160 Speaker 1: unreliable quarterback. We know what we get in Jameis Winston, right, 563 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,279 Speaker 1: we know what he's going to be. He's a little 564 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,120 Speaker 1: bit quirky. He's gonna make bad decisions. He's going to 565 00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 1: make incredible throws. He's gonna throw for a lot of yards. 566 00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:18,440 Speaker 1: Dennis Allen is not Sean Payton. Sean Payton. He's a 567 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 1: guy who knows his way around a number. He knows 568 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,960 Speaker 1: how to cover a spread. I don't get that from 569 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,759 Speaker 1: Dennis Allen, who, in his few years coaching has not 570 00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:29,080 Speaker 1: been very good against the spread. Meanwhile, you've got a 571 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:33,240 Speaker 1: coach second year of the offense. He likes Swiss Army players. 572 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,719 Speaker 1: He's increased the number of Swiss Army players on his 573 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:39,279 Speaker 1: roster in this spot at a dead number like five 574 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 1: and a half. You gotta take the ugly home dog. 575 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 1: By the way, New FanDuel customers get one hundred and 576 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,200 Speaker 1: fifty dollars in free bets with any five dollars bet. 577 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 1: All right, we covered a lot of ground. Can I 578 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:55,960 Speaker 1: sell you on a Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks plus six 579 00:35:56,000 --> 00:36:01,280 Speaker 1: and a half? Okay? I can't do it. I cannot 580 00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:04,040 Speaker 1: bet on Geno Smith. I can't. There's things I can't 581 00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,560 Speaker 1: do in life. There's things I can't do. I'll never 582 00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,480 Speaker 1: jump out of a plane. I'll never bet on Geno Smith. 583 00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,440 Speaker 1: Betting means doing bad things. I'll never kill a man 584 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:19,759 Speaker 1: verse three. Okay, jump out of a plane, kill a man. 585 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,239 Speaker 1: Bet on Gino Smith. I can't do it. Those are 586 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 1: definitely really solid rules to live by. Here's the thing. 587 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:33,319 Speaker 1: Here's the thing. If you were if someone proposed to you, 588 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:38,000 Speaker 1: if you don't bet on Gino Smith, I will kill 589 00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 1: this man. Would you bet on Gino Smith. No, can't 590 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,799 Speaker 1: do it. Can't cross that line. I can't be I 591 00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:48,640 Speaker 1: can't be seduced into going across. There are lines and 592 00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 1: parameters and boundaries. You know. He's I remember meeting him 593 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,200 Speaker 1: at the parking lot in ESPN. They were bringing all 594 00:36:56,239 --> 00:37:01,279 Speaker 1: the acc quarterbacks or something, and Gino Smith was there. 595 00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 1: He's a big, strapping kid, nice enough, but I remember 596 00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,920 Speaker 1: I had the same feeling later years later with Marcus Mariota, 597 00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:10,680 Speaker 1: or maybe it was before or later. It was in 598 00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:13,600 Speaker 1: the same time that I want my quarterbacks to be 599 00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,440 Speaker 1: like eye contact and engaging, because you have to be 600 00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,320 Speaker 1: in a huddle, and Gino and Marcus Mariota are so 601 00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:24,360 Speaker 1: non verbal, and it bothers me. I don't need you 602 00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,239 Speaker 1: to be Chris Rock. You know, you don't have to 603 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:30,840 Speaker 1: be Bill Burr. You gotta look at me in the eye. 604 00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,000 Speaker 1: You gotta be engaging. You're gonna have to talk up teammates, 605 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:38,200 Speaker 1: and I've never been able. Yeah, I can't get it. 606 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,919 Speaker 1: I can't unsee the moment I met Mariota or met 607 00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:46,480 Speaker 1: Gino Smith. They were big, strong athletes, non verbal at 608 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:51,720 Speaker 1: the world's most verbal position. And also I think Marcus 609 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,000 Speaker 1: is actually pretty talented That's why the Atlanta bet. When 610 00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:59,080 Speaker 1: he's upright, he's pretty good. He's pretty good player. Not 611 00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:01,000 Speaker 1: a lot of weapons, but pretty good player. I can't 612 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:04,680 Speaker 1: bet on Gino because he has accuracy issues on like Mariota. 613 00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,319 Speaker 1: He can't run off script. I get nothing. He won't 614 00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:11,399 Speaker 1: look me in the eye. He's nonverbal, he's not accurate. Shit, 615 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 1: I jump out of a plane with a dead man 616 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:21,000 Speaker 1: before I got Geno Schmidt. I feel like there's certain 617 00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,400 Speaker 1: spots in a year where you know you want to 618 00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:28,239 Speaker 1: bet on a team. Last year, Jacksonville against Indie. Maybe 619 00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:30,520 Speaker 1: it was the year before, like Jacksonville beat Indie in 620 00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:32,600 Speaker 1: Week one, that was a time when you know you 621 00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,799 Speaker 1: bet Jacksonville. This year, when the schedule came out and 622 00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,600 Speaker 1: we saw the Lions plus four against the Eagles, that 623 00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:40,799 Speaker 1: was a time where I knew we want to bet 624 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,279 Speaker 1: the Lions. You probably want to get a little bit 625 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,960 Speaker 1: of a taste on the money line. This is one 626 00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:48,720 Speaker 1: of those spots. It's a highly emotional situation for Russell 627 00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:52,840 Speaker 1: Wilson coming into a new offense, into a now hostile 628 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:55,960 Speaker 1: environment that used to be his home, with a team 629 00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,560 Speaker 1: that you know, say what you want about Gino, they 630 00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,880 Speaker 1: still got met half on the outside. They still have 631 00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:05,720 Speaker 1: serviceable running backs. It's still Pete Carroll in a game 632 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,120 Speaker 1: which he is going to be thinking about motivating his 633 00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,640 Speaker 1: team in different ways. They'll get up for one game 634 00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,719 Speaker 1: this year they're a terrible team. They'll get up for 635 00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,080 Speaker 1: one game. This is the game, and six and a 636 00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:21,720 Speaker 1: half is a big, big number. Chad Millman Action Network 637 00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:27,040 Speaker 1: every Friday is called Sharper Square. I'm clearly the latter. 638 00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:32,240 Speaker 1: I'm getting better, but this is one of my favorite 639 00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:33,960 Speaker 1: segments because I do feel like we are at some 640 00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,279 Speaker 1: point not only educating me obviously, but the audience a 641 00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:39,560 Speaker 1: little bit. We all get Sharper. So it's good see Anyboddy, 642 00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:41,520 Speaker 1: Good to see you, two man. Good luck this weekend 643 00:39:55,840 --> 00:40:02,880 Speaker 1: the volume. Make sure to check out The Draymond Green Show. 644 00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,600 Speaker 1: I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of 645 00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:09,680 Speaker 1: the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective understands behind 646 00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:13,240 Speaker 1: the rope. Also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton, 647 00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,080 Speaker 1: Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The Draymond Green 648 00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:22,000 Speaker 1: Show wherever you get your podcasts, only on the Volume 649 00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:23,720 Speaker 1: Podcast Network.