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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.

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Speaker 1: We're going to get to you in a minute. Biden's

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Speaker 1: big speech and this ceasefire proposal that maybe his, maybe Israel's,

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Speaker 1: maybe Jimas's. We'll get to all of that with our

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Speaker 1: guests in a minute. But we have some other major

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Speaker 1: breaking news with regard to Israel and Joe Biden. Let's

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Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. So Israeli Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Benjamin NETANYAHUO, fresh off of likely facing international criminal court

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Speaker 1: ARRUSS warrants, has now officially been invited to deliver and

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Speaker 1: address to Congress.

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Speaker 4: We can put this up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: All four congressional leaders signed off on this invitation. After

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Speaker 1: weeks of delay, the letter US went out, So Sager,

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Speaker 1: thanks to Mike Johnson, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, and to

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Speaker 1: King Jeffries, true bipartisan uniparty coming together, all of them

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Speaker 1: to invite a man who continues to carpet bomb babies

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Speaker 1: and centerate children inside of tents where they've been discored.

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Speaker 2: What is so foolish about this is I do not

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Speaker 2: understand how these reel establishment and how the US Congress

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Speaker 2: did not learn its lesson from twenty fifteen that moment.

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Speaker 2: I mean, and you'll definitely know this, Crystal, back during

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Speaker 2: the Iran Deal. At that time, the consensus around Israel

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Speaker 2: was probably ten times more ironclad than it is today.

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Speaker 2: And look, I know what everybody thinks, but that means

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Speaker 2: you really can't imagine what it was like back then.

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Speaker 2: What broke open any ability to even criticize an Israeli

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Speaker 2: prime minister was the flagrant violation of international norms of

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Speaker 2: an Israeli prime minister coming to the United States at

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Speaker 2: the behest of the opposition party to openly speak against

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Speaker 2: the international priority and the foreign policy priority of the

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Speaker 2: President of the United States, who at that time was

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Speaker 2: Barack Obama. That little little thing cracked open the ability

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Speaker 2: to criticize Apak, which mobilized against the Iran Deal bob

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Netanyahu and actually gave Democrats the ability to

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Speaker 2: back their president Barack Obama against the leader Netanyahu. And

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Speaker 2: from that very very day, the Israeli Party or the

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Speaker 2: Israeli government has basically aligned itself fully with the Republican Party,

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Speaker 2: where the Republican Party will always one hundred percent go

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Speaker 2: to bat for Israel. Mount Don't get me wrong, It's

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Speaker 2: not like the Democratic Party of today has not been

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Speaker 2: also going along with it. But as you and I know,

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Speaker 2: with the base where they are and the younger voters

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Speaker 2: on top of enough of you know, these people don't

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Speaker 2: get enough attention. It's not just the ilhan Omars of

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Speaker 2: the world. There's a lot Rokan, I mean, many others.

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Speaker 4: And is risking his seat market taking hands.

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Speaker 2: You know, these are not household names. But who are

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Speaker 2: out there being like listen, I'm not voting for this anymore.

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Speaker 2: That is still extraordinary, never would have happened, or even

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Speaker 2: like a Chris van Hall, right, a Chris van Holl again,

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Speaker 2: he's continued to vote for it.

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Speaker 5: But the fact that he even talks differently about with Warren,

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Speaker 5: it's like standard issue Democrat, you know, who's like close

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Speaker 5: to leadership that will even talk critically of Israel, speak

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Speaker 5: critically of the Biden.

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Speaker 1: Administration's approach to Israel. It is different than it was

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Speaker 1: even just a few years ago. I mean, it's just

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Speaker 1: remarkable to me because again this goes back to where

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Speaker 1: we were talking about the Ukraine segment, all the talk

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Speaker 1: about human rights, international law, Putin's a war crimne, all.

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Speaker 4: Of this stuff.

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Speaker 1: Bibing at Yaho is facing a West Warren's from the

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Speaker 1: ICC for war crimes. The ICJ has just on the

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Speaker 1: heels of them saying or after they said, this is

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Speaker 1: like applausibly a genocide and we're going to investigate. Now

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Speaker 1: they've issued an injunction saying you have to stop this

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Speaker 1: invasion of Raffa. They did not stop the invasion of Raffa.

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Speaker 1: Not only that Biden himself there was a red line

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Speaker 1: with regard to invasion of Rafa that they completely blue pass,

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Speaker 1: and there's a full on invasion, completely humiliating him and

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Speaker 1: once again exposing his total weakness. You have Bibi's own

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Speaker 1: government falling apart. Benny Gantz and Yoev Golant, who are

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Speaker 1: the other two ministers in the war cabinet. So it's

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Speaker 1: bb Yoev Glant and Benny Gantz. So those two are

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Speaker 1: basically ready to quit the war cabinet. The country is

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Speaker 1: in chaos with you know, mass protests and huge divisions

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Speaker 1: over what to do going forward, just with regard to

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Speaker 1: the hostages. They you know, overwhelmingly support the extent and

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Speaker 1: the horror of these wars. The society does. But nevertheless,

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Speaker 1: he's on the rocks. You had Chuck Schumer previously, Mry

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Speaker 1: gave him holding. He needs to go calling for regime change.

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Speaker 4: What happened to that? What happened to that?

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Speaker 1: And now's the moment when you're going to rescue this

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Speaker 1: guy with this huge honor and have him come and

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Speaker 1: address Congress like it's just grotesque. It's honestly just grotesque

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Speaker 1: for them to do this at this moment. And and

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Speaker 1: on top of this, we have additional Biden officials who

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Speaker 1: continue to resign over just unconscionable situations that they are

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Speaker 1: being put in. So this is Alex Smith. He was

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Speaker 1: interviewed over on Democracy Now. He's a former contractor for USAID.

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Speaker 1: He says he was pushed out of USAID Samantha Power,

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Speaker 1: you know, big humanitarian, etc. So I wrote a whole

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Speaker 1: book about genocide. After he made a presentation on maternal

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Speaker 1: and child health impacts of the Israeli war on Gaza,

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Speaker 1: they told him, you can either resign or get fired.

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Speaker 1: How dare you write a report about maternal and child

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Speaker 1: health impacts of the war on Gaza. He decided to resign.

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Speaker 1: Here is what he had to say to democracy Now.

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Speaker 6: It was told to remove words like Palestine, Palestinians, Israel,

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Speaker 6: Gaza border, and several others, and then there was a

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Speaker 6: column of preferred language. I went along with that. I

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Speaker 6: removed the word Palestine from the organization name UNFPA Palistine

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Speaker 6: because that was objected to. I removed a map that

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Speaker 6: UNOCHE provided that was acknowledged as an accurate map, but

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Speaker 6: that couldn't be included because it showed the borders and

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Speaker 6: the sea borders of Gaza. Also on that Monday, I

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Speaker 6: was told this is a very sensitive issue because an

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Speaker 6: hour before we were having our chat, the ICC request

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Speaker 6: for an indictment came down from the prosecutor, and so

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Speaker 6: I was told that it's a sensitive issue because of that.

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Speaker 6: I mentioned that I was a legal fellow at the

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Speaker 6: ICC back when I was in law school that I

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Speaker 6: had worked on specifically starvation as a weapon of war,

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Speaker 6: and that was an area of interest of mine, and

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Speaker 6: that I thought it would be useful to talk about

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Speaker 6: international humanitarian law frameworks as they apply to every country,

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Speaker 6: Gaza included. And I think that set off alarm bells.

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Speaker 6: There were many more layers of editing, and then on Tuesday,

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Speaker 6: I was told that the presentation was canceled. Before I

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Speaker 6: was told the presentation was deleted from the conference.

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Speaker 7: Website, Congress Member Castro said, so there's famine already occurring there.

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Speaker 7: Samantha Power said yes. Castro then asked Power how many

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Speaker 7: children were at risk of dying in the coming weeks

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Speaker 7: due to famine. She said, in northern Gaza, the rate

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Speaker 7: of malnutrition prior to October seventh was almost zero. It's

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Speaker 7: now one in three, one in three kids. So was

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Speaker 7: she aware of the demand that was made of you

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Speaker 7: to change all the language.

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Speaker 6: I don't know. I don't know who in leadership was

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Speaker 6: told about the presentation. I know that there was a

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Speaker 6: lot of chatter that I wasn't privy to about my

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Speaker 6: presentation in the days leading up to it, But I

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Speaker 6: don't know if she has seen the presentation slides or

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Speaker 6: my resignation letter.

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Speaker 1: So, in addition, we covered last week a State Department

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Speaker 1: official named Stacy Gilbert who also had resigned. We're getting

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Speaker 1: more details over the specifics of her resignation.

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Speaker 4: Put this up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: So she'd sent an email to her colleagues explaining she

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Speaker 1: was leaving because of an official finding by the department

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Speaker 1: she worked in that Israel was not deliberately obstructing the

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Speaker 1: flow of food or other aid in the Gaza, according

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Speaker 1: to the posts. She took issue in particular with the

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Speaker 1: former State Department report to Commerce on mid tenth noting

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Speaker 1: Israel to not fully cooperate in the first months of

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Speaker 1: the Gaza war, but it had significantly increased humanitarian access

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Speaker 1: more recently, in fact, after a spike in humanitarian deliveries

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Speaker 1: in late April and early May, they have fallen to

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Speaker 1: near zero in the weeks since. So she's effectively blowing

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Speaker 1: the whistle at this point, saying this report was a croc.

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Speaker 1: They're just lying in this report, and it's an untenable

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Speaker 1: situation for me as a professional, and that is why

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Speaker 1: she decided to resign. So you have in both instances

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Speaker 1: officials resigning over the suppression of accurate information about what

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Speaker 1: Israel is doing with regards to Gaza.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's important.

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Speaker 2: I mean, really, what we're watching is like the disintegration

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Speaker 2: of a lot of the humanitarian people who work in

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Speaker 2: the Biden administration at the actual bureaucratic level.

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Speaker 3: Because these people I've actually.

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Speaker 8: Met many of them.

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Speaker 2: I kind of went to school with a lot of

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Speaker 2: these Yeah, these types, they really believe in that mission.

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Speaker 2: Kind of what we talked previously about with respect to Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: They're probably the most Slava Ukraine people out there, Like

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Speaker 2: this is horrible, this is a legal invasion. They're big,

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Speaker 2: like in an international law respectors, you know, and all

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Speaker 2: of that. And so for them to watch this kind

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Speaker 2: of revert right back to real politic almost in a way,

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Speaker 2: or not even really, but at least in terms of

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Speaker 2: the way the Biden administration justifies the Israeli actions and goasa.

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Speaker 3: That's a bridge too far from them.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that violates thirty years really of their understanding

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Speaker 2: of the international system Samantha Power is probably the best example.

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Speaker 2: Now let me be clear, I think her ideology is

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Speaker 2: deeply destructive and wrong, but she wrote the entire book

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Speaker 2: to justify a doctrine called responsibility to Protect, which basically

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Speaker 2: says that the United States, anywhere where humanitarian law as

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Speaker 2: we understand it is being violated, should use the force

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Speaker 2: of the US military and of the US Empire to

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Speaker 2: work directly to make that happen, regardless of the security

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Speaker 2: real politic cost. Now I deeply, deeply disagree with that,

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Speaker 2: but that ideology, and she herself is really what rules.

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Speaker 2: What I would say is the international relations student and

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Speaker 2: others who kind of came up in that era like

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Speaker 2: I did and ended up working at a place like

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Speaker 2: USAID or for the Biden campaigner anywhere else.

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Speaker 3: So for them, I mean, I get it because I

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Speaker 3: literally know these people. That's why they can't stomach what's

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Speaker 3: happening right now.

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Speaker 1: The problem with her doctrine is it can be used

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Speaker 1: far too easily, and is used far too easily to

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Speaker 1: just engage in interventions or wherever the hell of the

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Speaker 1: US feels like it. And you know, use, you know,

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Speaker 1: these liberal humanitarian justifications for just going in and meddling

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Speaker 1: with other people countries. So and you know, again not

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Speaker 1: because of the humanitarian peace, but because of our own

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Speaker 1: interest as perceived by the elites.

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Speaker 4: In this country. But she wrote a book.

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Speaker 1: She got a Pulitzer for this thing problem from How

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Speaker 1: America and the Age of Genocide, talking all about, you know,

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Speaker 1: why the problem of genocide persists, and how America becomes

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Speaker 1: complicit and ignores these problems, et cetera, et cetera. Now

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Speaker 1: here you are here, you are so pressing a report

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Speaker 1: on the horrors being inflicted on women, mothers and children

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Speaker 1: in Gaza. So yeah, anyone with like a shred of

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Speaker 1: self respect, it just it becomes a bridge too far.

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Speaker 1: It's one thing probably if the report's okay, they're being

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Speaker 1: massaged as that USAID contractor was talking about.

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Speaker 4: Oh you know, some of the language was changed.

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Speaker 1: I could kind of like live with that, but it

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Speaker 1: gets to a point where it's like, no, now, this

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Speaker 1: just doesn't reflect reality, Like you're just lying and it's

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Speaker 1: blatant and it's brazen. Not everyone has completely lost their

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Speaker 1: soul in the way of like Matthew Miller. I don't

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Speaker 1: think John Kirby ever had one. You know, the dude

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Speaker 1: that people outrageously say looks like you whatever his name is.

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Speaker 2: These other states that is to use to use their

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Speaker 2: term that is a blood libel right against me and

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Speaker 2: against our people. He's not even from the same region

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Speaker 2: of India, the right, We don't all look the same.

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Speaker 2: That's like saying a dude from West Virginia is the

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Speaker 2: same as some guy from Los Angeles, right, It ain't

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Speaker 2: the same folks, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, Well, anyway, the biggest problem with him is that, like,

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Speaker 1: I mean, they'll just you see these increasingly preposterous situations

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Speaker 1: and things that they try to defend, which are I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's it's just so brazen that you even have what's

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Speaker 1: his name, Ed O'Keeffe, who's like, how many more charred corpses?

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Speaker 1: Like that's how hard even the mainstream press is going

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Speaker 1: at this point, because they're just they're just sick of

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Speaker 1: being lied to and propagandized on a daily basis, at

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Speaker 1: least those of them who even have a shred of

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Speaker 1: a shred of self respect and integrity. So in any case,

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Speaker 1: noteworthy that you continue to have this letter of resignations,

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Speaker 1: and also very noteworthy what they have to say about

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Speaker 1: the direct lies and suppression of accurate information coming out of.

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Speaker 4: The Godza Strip.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and get to this huge news with

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Speaker 1: regard to Joe Biden. So this was a crazy situation.

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Speaker 1: We're going to have omar on in just a minute

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Speaker 1: to help us make sense of it. So last week,

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Speaker 1: pretty soon after the whole Trump verdict came out, we

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Speaker 1: get this notice that Biden is going to give a

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Speaker 1: major address on them to least and on Israel Palestine,

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Speaker 1: which was weird because it's like, you know, you probably

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Speaker 1: want to let the Trump news like this is good

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Speaker 1: for you. You probably want to let that settle. But okay,

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Speaker 1: let's see what you have to say. So he comes

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Speaker 1: out and he announces what he describes as a ceasefire

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Speaker 1: proposal that he makes a big show of saying came

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Speaker 1: from the Israelis. Now, there were few things that were

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Speaker 1: weird about this. First of all, it sounded very much

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Speaker 1: like actually a proposal that came from Hamas not that

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Speaker 1: long ago, that Hamas had agreed to and the Israelis rejected.

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Speaker 1: In addition, in spite of the fact that he claims

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Speaker 1: this came from the Israelis, he also spent a lot

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Speaker 1: of time in the speech trying to persuade the Israelis

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Speaker 1: that they should accept the deal that they purportedly.

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Speaker 4: Had themselves developed.

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Speaker 1: But then nevertheless goes on to you know, put the

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Speaker 1: onus on Hamas and say, you know it's this is

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Speaker 1: on you, and you're the ones who have to accept

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Speaker 1: this deal. So there's a lot that was strange and

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Speaker 1: confusing going on here. The timing of it was also interesting,

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Speaker 1: coming on Friday with the Sabbath starting, knowing that there

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Speaker 1: was going to be no ability for the Israeli government

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Speaker 1: to react for a full day, so that was noteworthy

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Speaker 1: as well. In any case, let's take a listen to

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Speaker 1: a little bit of what Joe Biden had to say,

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Speaker 1: and then we can tell you about the reaction and

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Speaker 1: what the hell is going on here.

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Speaker 4: Take a listen.

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Speaker 9: After intensive diplomacy carried up by my team, my many

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Speaker 9: conversations leaders of Israel cutter in Egypt and other Middle

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Speaker 9: Eastern countries, Israel has now offered Israel is offered a

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Speaker 9: confrehensive new proposal. It's a roadmap to an endurance, cease

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Speaker 9: fire and the release of all hostages. Staces work relentlessly

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Speaker 9: to support Israeli security, to get humanitarian supplies in the Gaza.

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Speaker 9: You get a ceasefire and a hostage deal to bring

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Speaker 9: this war to an end. Yesterday, With this new initiative,

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Speaker 9: we've taken an important step in that direction, and I

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Speaker 9: want in love with you today as to where we

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Speaker 9: are and what might be possible. But I need your help.

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Speaker 9: Everyone who wants peace now must raise their voices. Let

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Speaker 9: the leaders know they should take this deal, work to

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Speaker 9: make it real, make it lasting, and forge a better

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Speaker 9: future out of the tragic terror attack and war. It's

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Speaker 9: time to begin this new stage. But the hostage them home,

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Speaker 9: for Israel to be secure, the suffering to stop. It's

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Speaker 9: time for this war to end.

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Speaker 1: Time for this war to end. All right, let's put

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Speaker 1: the details of this proposal up on the screen. Some

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Speaker 1: things are left, I think intentionally vague, but this is

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Speaker 1: the framework that the White House tweeted out along with

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Speaker 1: texts that said Israel has now offered again putting this

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Speaker 1: on Israel, a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the

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Speaker 1: release of all the hostages. Yesterday this proposal was transmitted

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Speaker 1: to katarb to Hamas. Today I want to lay on

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Speaker 1: its terms of the world. So this is a three

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Speaker 1: phase deal. It's similar to what we has been floated

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Speaker 1: and bandied amount for a while. But you've gotten phase one,

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Speaker 1: a complete ceasefire whichra all of Israeli forces from populated

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Speaker 1: areas in Gaza, release of some hostages, and some remains

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Speaker 1: of hostages. Palestinian civilians can return to their homes in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: That has been a key demand from the hamaside, and

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Speaker 1: a surge and humanitarian aid in Phase two, which according

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Speaker 1: to Biden, and this is actually critical. Phase one would

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Speaker 1: continue with the complete ceasefire until the Phase two details

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Speaker 1: could all be worked out. That was previously a major

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Speaker 1: sticking point on the Israeli side. Okay, Phase too permanent

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Speaker 1: and to hostilities exchange for the release of remaining living hostages.

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Speaker 1: Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza, and in phase three you

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Speaker 1: have major reconstruction plans. This is quote unquote day after

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Speaker 1: final remains of hostages are returned to their families. We

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Speaker 1: have some reaction from all sides to this. Again proposal

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Speaker 1: that supposedly came from the Israelis. Let's put this up

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Speaker 1: on the screen from bb Net and yaho. He says

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Speaker 1: Israel's conditions for ending the war have not changed. The

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Speaker 1: destruction from maasa's military and governing capabilities, the freeing of

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Speaker 1: all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a

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Speaker 1: threat to Israel. Israel will continue to insist these conditions

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Speaker 1: are met before permanent ceasefire is put in place. The

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Speaker 1: notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before

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Speaker 1: these conditions are fulfilled is a non starter.

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Speaker 4: A non starter.

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Speaker 1: Now, he doesn't definitively say no to this proposal, but

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Speaker 1: the language seems to suggest there was another statement from

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Speaker 1: the israelis Let's put this up on the screen. This

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Speaker 1: is a statement from the Prime Minister's office, again from Bibi.

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Speaker 1: The Government of Israel's United and its desired to return

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Speaker 1: the hostages as soon as possible is working to achieve

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Speaker 1: this goal. The Prime Minister authorized the negotiating team to

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Speaker 1: present a proposal to that end, which would also enable

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Speaker 1: Israel to continue the war until all its objectives are achieved,

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Speaker 1: including the struction from US as military and governing capabilities.

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Speaker 1: The actual proposal put forward by Israel, including the conditional

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Speaker 1: transition from one phase to the next, allows Israel to

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Speaker 1: uphold those principles so that one is a little more

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Speaker 1: ambiguous in terms of the orientation. Of course, the far

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Speaker 1: right ministers Ben Gaveran's Mochritz immediately freaked out, we could

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Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. They told nan Yaho

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Speaker 1: that if this proposal is implemented, they will leave the coalition,

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Speaker 1: they will top the government if he goes through with this.

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Speaker 1: And you know, Socager, I'm interested to get your reaction meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: and we'll get to this in a minute. Hamas actually

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Speaker 1: responded positively said they're interested in engaging with this. So

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Speaker 1: I'm not really sure what's going on here, I think so.

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Speaker 1: I think the vagueness of what Biden put forward is

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Speaker 1: a key piece here. The critical sticking point between the

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Speaker 1: Israelis and Hamas has always been Hamas wants a complete

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Speaker 1: end to the war and the Israelis don't, at least

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Speaker 1: not at this point. I mean, we just had an

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Speaker 1: Israeli minister come out and say this is going to

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Speaker 1: go on till the end of the year, like we're

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Speaker 1: nowhere close to being finished.

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Speaker 2: Year.

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Speaker 1: You've had Bibe saying consistently like we're nowhere close to done,

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Speaker 1: and no indication that he's ready to.

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Speaker 4: Wrap this war up whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: So there are a lot of things pointing in conflicting directions.

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Speaker 1: I think what happened is that the Israelis did put

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Speaker 1: forward something that was colorably close to this, at least

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Speaker 1: under duress from Biden and within the war cabinet from

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Speaker 1: Yoev Galant and Benny Gantz. Biden sort of seized on

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Speaker 1: that in what would be a clever maneuver to put

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Speaker 1: pressure on the Israelis if it was combined, yes, with

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Speaker 1: any willingness to withhold weapons and actually use any sort

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Speaker 1: of leverage.

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Speaker 4: To accomplish this goal.

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Speaker 1: But since that is not being put on the table whatsoever,

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Speaker 1: it's probably just another opportunity for Biden humiliation.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely. I think you're correct.

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Speaker 2: My general read is, like you said, there was some

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Speaker 2: sort of handshake agreement or understanding which the Israeli government

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Speaker 2: had kind of agreed to in principle.

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Speaker 3: Biden's like, look, we're going to roll with this.

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Speaker 2: We're just going to I mean, it's a clever move,

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Speaker 2: you know, that people have done in the past, Akin

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Speaker 2: to during the Cuban missile crisis.

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Speaker 3: Khruschet says, it's two notes.

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Speaker 2: We only respond to the first one, and we just

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Speaker 2: decided that the second one never mattered, except very critically

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Speaker 2: in this case, is that all political incentives in that

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Speaker 2: country are against Bbe actually agreeing to this under pressure,

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Speaker 2: and there was no commeserate actual threat like in that

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Speaker 2: situation of ever doing anything. I only don't know really

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Speaker 2: what to make of this because all the reporting currently

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Speaker 2: indicates that the Israeli government did agree at least to

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Speaker 2: some of this in principle, but they don't have any

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Speaker 2: real Okay, let's separate a couple of things. There's actual

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Speaker 2: cease fire deal, and there's also a lot of what

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Speaker 2: Biden said, as I understand it is the very first

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Speaker 2: time that he's ever said, but the war has to

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Speaker 2: end and not a temporary ceasefire number one, number two,

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Speaker 2: and let's not forget about this too. He is saying,

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Speaker 2: at least this is his opinion and presumably that of

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Speaker 2: US intelligence. Hamas has been degraded to the point where

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Speaker 2: there will no longer be in October seventh, akaa, the

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Speaker 2: actual you know, the actual war outlay from the beginning,

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Speaker 2: the goal of war has been achieved. And third, what

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Speaker 2: he's really committing to is not quote unquote the total

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Speaker 2: destruction of Hamas. He is effectively admitting that US policy

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Speaker 2: right now is that, yeah, Hamas terrorists have been degraded,

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Speaker 2: but working with these people in some political fashion for

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Speaker 2: the future day after Gaza is basically non ago.

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Speaker 3: All of that.

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Speaker 2: I agree with, actually, but you know, do these Raelies

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Speaker 2: accept that condition? Will the American political right except that

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Speaker 2: condition obviously?

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Speaker 1: Know?

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Speaker 3: So that's really where a lot of the.

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Speaker 1: Problem comes right now, right So it reminds me of

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Speaker 1: the way that the Biden administration tried to persuade Israel

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Speaker 1: when it came to so you recall the whole Israel

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Speaker 1: Iran exchange. Israel attacks and Iranian embassy and kill some

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Speaker 1: of their high level military commanders. Iran then response, and

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Speaker 1: the US tried to persuade Israel like we shot down

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Speaker 1: all their stuff that they shot it. Take that as

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Speaker 1: a win, like, declare victory. And that's basically what is

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Speaker 1: being said here too, is I mean the subtext is

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Speaker 1: your original goal of destroying him oud Like we all

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Speaker 1: know that that is ridiculous, was ridiculous, has always been ridiculous.

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Speaker 4: So just frame what you've done as a win.

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Speaker 1: Just we like, eh, they're degraded and this many battalions

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Speaker 1: taken down this much of the tunnel system, and we

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Speaker 1: promised they can't do another October seventh whatever, Like, take

436
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 1: that as the win and wrap this thing up again.

437
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 1: Since there's no willingness to actually or US power in

438
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,360
Speaker 1: this regard, it's only war words.

439
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 4: How much does it mean? Not a whole lot.

440
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 1: But to your point Zager about we have gotten confirmation

441
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 1: from a number of sources that the Israelis did somewhat

442
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 1: agree to some facets of this or some semblance of

443
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 1: what Biden put for We could put this up on

444
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 1: the screen. You had a senior Israeli official say the quote,

445
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 1: the plan presented by Biden is indeed the offer made

446
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 1: by the War cabinet. Again, the war cabinet is bibing

447
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: at Yahoo. You have Galant and Benny Gantz through the

448
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 1: mediators to Hamas. However, there is one main difference between

449
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: the President's speech and the actual offer made by Israel.

450
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: Quote Israel has never agreed that negotiations between Stage one

451
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 1: and Stage two can continue indefinitely and during that time

452
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 1: the cease fire last. This might mean Hamas can keep

453
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: the hostages that were not freedom continue to negotiate forever,

454
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 1: thus achieving the end of the war, will still holding

455
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 1: onto the hostages. The attached quote from the President's speech

456
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 1: is what they are referring to. But again the main

457
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 1: point is that they confirm it's an Israeli proposal.

458
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 4: This is a key part though.

459
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 1: Because Okay, if you recall, in Phase one, there is

460
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: a complete ceasefire and there's an exchange of a significant

461
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 1: number of the hostages and the hostage remains, So it

462
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 1: could be that the Israelis in floating something approximating this.

463
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 1: We're thinking they could do another like temporary ceasefire, sort

464
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 1: of like what was done early in the war, and

465
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: get a lot of their hostages back and claim that

466
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 1: as a victory and then go back to the war

467
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: and tie up the negotiations. Because what they're saying here

468
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 1: this senior is really official is no, no, no. We

469
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 1: never agree that that Phase one would last indefinitely with

470
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 1: the ceasefire until we work out Phase two. We want

471
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 1: to be able to go back to shooting and bombing

472
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 1: if we can't work out the details of Phase two.

473
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 1: So that may have been the thinking is we'll put

474
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 1: forward what appears to be a decent faith like Phase

475
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 1: three ceasefire, total ceasefire proposal to play. Kate Hamasu's demand

476
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 1: is that this thing ends completely with no intention of

477
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 1: really ever going ba on Phase one. That's kind of

478
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 1: what I read as one possibility into this. As I

479
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 1: mentioned before, I let's put this up on the screen.

480
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 1: From the Hamas side, they say they positively view the

481
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 1: Gaza seasfowl. Read this specific language quote. Hamas confirms its

482
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: readiness to deal positively in a constructive manner with any

483
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: proposal that is based on the permanent ceasefire and the

484
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 1: full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza strip, the

485
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 1: reconstruction of gods, the return of the displace to their places,

486
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: along with the fulfillment of a genuine prisoner swap deal

487
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 1: if the occupation clearly announces commitment to such deal. So

488
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: that's the HMAS side of things. We'll see how they

489
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 1: react to the specifics in this proposal. But Soger, that's

490
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 1: kind of.

491
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 3: Where we are.

492
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 8: Yeah.

493
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 2: I think that's a good place to bring in our guest,

494
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 2: Omar Badar, he's standing by.

495
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 3: Let's get to it.

496
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 4: All right, guys.

497
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 1: Very happy to be joined in studio today by Omar Badar.

498
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 1: He is a Palestinian American political analyst who has been

499
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 1: just such a great resource on all of these things.

500
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 4: So great to see you, Omar, Thank you so much.

501
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 8: Good to seeing me here.

502
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, our pleasure.

503
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 1: So we just went through what Biden said, the ceasefire

504
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: propose that is purportedly from the Israelis. But the Israelis

505
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 1: aren't so sure that they're in love with this thing

506
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: at this point. I mean, what did you make up

507
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 1: this whole situation?

508
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 10: Yeah, look, I think it's worth backing up just to

509
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:11,160
Speaker 10: kind of set the context for this a little bit

510
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 10: in talking about what Israel's goals are in this process.

511
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 8: Right, they have two stated goals.

512
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 10: One is the defeat of Hamas militarily and the second

513
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 10: is the forcible retrieval of hostages. And those two declared

514
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 10: goals have been a complete and total failure on their part,

515
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 10: There's just no question about it. There is a third,

516
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 10: not officially declared, but very strongly implied, and it's very

517
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 10: visible when you look at the situation on the ground,

518
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 10: which is effectively to ethnically cleanse Gaza through this genocidal

519
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 10: violence campaign that they are currently carrying out, and that

520
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,399
Speaker 10: they see as a way to actually achieve one of

521
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 10: those goals, the defeat of Hamas in an indirect way,

522
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 10: you know, to use the language of Benjamin Attiniaoho himself,

523
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 10: he's talking about thinning the population in Gaza down to

524
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 10: a minimum, and that's how he sees a path forward

525
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 10: where he can present an image of victory when there is.

526
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 3: No victory otherwise for Israel to be had.

527
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 10: So cease fire proposal that Israel has put forward has

528
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 10: been one that is predicated on Israel getting to have

529
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 10: its cake and eat it too.

530
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 8: So they want the temporary ceasefire.

531
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 10: Hamass releases all the hostages and then the genocidal vinyls

532
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 10: continue so that Israel can still get the victory that

533
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 10: they want out of it. Obviously, that's a ridiculous proposition.

534
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,479
Speaker 10: It's a non starter. There is no incentive for Hamas

535
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 10: to accept it, and it's not going to lead to

536
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 10: anything positive. This is not anybody who starts from a

537
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 10: functioning moral compass cannot go along with a proposal like that.

538
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 2: Okay, and then let's get to the ceasefire proposal itself.

539
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 2: What is the incentive here? What are the details? And

540
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 2: then the incentive so we set it up, you know,

541
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 2: in terms of that, But what are the details that

542
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 2: jumped out at you as to whether this is sincere

543
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 2: or not and what you will actually be accepted.

544
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,880
Speaker 10: Yeah, So in contrast to this, Israeli position, the Hamass

545
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 10: position is we're willing to give up the hostages, but

546
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 10: we need a permanent ceasefire. Sure, and there seems to

547
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:52,640
Speaker 10: have been an Israeli proposal at some point that has

548
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 10: that as a staggered process, where you start with a

549
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 10: temporary six weeks ceasefire, you do most of the hostage

550
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 10: prisoner exchanges, and then you potentially transition into a permanencyas

551
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 10: fire that is based on some conditions. In this case,

552
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 10: Israel's conditions are still Israeli victory, the defeat of Hamas,

553
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 10: the elimination of Hamas rule and Gaza. And I think

554
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 10: what Biden did here is he ad libbed his own

555
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 10: little detail, his own spin on the Israeli plan, which

556
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 10: is to say, this transition from phase one to phase

557
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 10: two is one in which the ceasefire will just continue

558
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 10: indefinitely so long as there is talking happening, and that

559
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 10: is suspicious for both Israel and Hamas. Interestingly, from Hamas's perspective,

560
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,239
Speaker 10: what they're worried about is that they do give up

561
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 10: most of the hostages in phase one. Israel says, Okay,

562
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 10: the negotiations are not working. Right back to the genocide

563
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 10: and so there's no incentive for them to say as

564
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 10: to that. From Israel's perspective, what Nataniyaho's worried about is

565
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 10: that this, and it seems to be the more likely interpretation,

566
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 10: is that Biden is trying to chorus Israel into a

567
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 10: permanencyas fire by saying that between phase one and Phase two,

568
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 10: this is an indefinite cease fire as long as some

569
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 10: kind of talking is happening, And what there were about

570
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 10: is that you are going to get to phase one

571
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 10: and as long as Hamas is engaging in some kind

572
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 10: of conversation, then the ceasefire is effectively permanent. That's where

573
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 10: the suspicion comes from on both sides. But from Nataniejo's perspective,

574
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 10: given the fact that when you listen to Biden's speech,

575
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 10: it's heavily emphasized on the idea that there is no

576
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 10: total Israeli victory, that people in Israel's cabinet are not

577
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 10: going to like this proposal, it seems to be shifting

578
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 10: in the direction of pressure on the Israeli government to

579
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 10: really start letting go of the fantasy that they're going

580
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 10: to have some sort of epic victory at.

581
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 1: The end of this, and the most just trying to

582
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: frame what they've done already is look, you've as good job, guys.

583
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 10: And the most critical part of that is that I

584
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 10: think this shift in Biden's approach came after the Israeli

585
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:45,239
Speaker 10: military announced just a few days before that that they

586
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 10: anticipate the campaign and Gaza to last at least another

587
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 10: eight months. Biden knows this is not going to work

588
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 10: for him. The election is coming up well before that.

589
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 10: The level of rage and anger that exists domestically within

590
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 10: the United States about this genocidal campaign that the US

591
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 10: is arming and funding is just you know.

592
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 8: Really through the roof.

593
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 10: And finally, Biden seems to be understanding that this policy

594
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 10: of allowing Israel to behave with impunity to do whatever

595
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 10: it wants, the car blanche approach that he has given

596
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 10: the Israeli government is going to lead to very very

597
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 10: negative consequences for Biden. And now he's trying to up

598
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 10: the pressure a little bit to move things around.

599
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: Because he's still thinking, like, Okay, I think I could

600
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: still rescue the real act if I get this set

601
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:25,959
Speaker 1: some sort of a ceasefire and some sort of a

602
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: Saudi normalization deal and that's what he's really betting on.

603
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: So when you have them coming out and saying we're

604
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 1: not wrapping this up till twenty twenty five at least, Yeah,

605
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: he's seeing the writing on the wall of how foolish

606
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 1: that is, how unlikely that is to.

607
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 10: Happen, and frankly, the fact that it's obviously all part

608
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 10: of a ploy that Nataniahu wants to get Trump into

609
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,479
Speaker 10: office so that he can have completely needs to, you know,

610
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 10: just loosen the reins entirely for Israel to do whatever

611
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 10: it once.

612
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 1: And I want to emphasize what you were just saying

613
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 1: about this Phase one phase two because it seems like

614
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: a detail, but it's really important. This is what we

615
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 1: were just talking about before you came in. A senior

616
00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: Israeli official said that the plan presented by Biden is

617
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: indeed the offer made by the War Cabinet. However, there

618
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: is one main difference. Quote Israel has never agreed that

619
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 1: negotiations between Phase one and Phase two can continue indefinitely

620
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: and during that time the ceasefire last, and that's exactly

621
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 1: what you're pointing to here, Omar, And just to underscore

622
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 1: for people again, it seems like what israel thought is

623
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: that they could float this proposal that sort of meet

624
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: some of the demands of Hamas. That way they can

625
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: get a lot of their hostages back. But then if

626
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: the negotiations fall apart, so we never go to phase two,

627
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: we just go back to shooting. We just go back

628
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: to the campaign as it was before. So we can

629
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 1: bring this form of a victory to the Israeli public

630
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 1: of basically like you know, continued annihilation and destruction.

631
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 8: Yeah, a stre that's exactly right.

632
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 10: And the first time Israel presented this proposal without this

633
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 10: indefinite ceasefire part between phases one and two, Hamas said

634
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 10: no to it. And is really Press reported that Nataniajo

635
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 10: has effectively relieved that Hamas had said no to it

636
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 10: because he's very nervous about the prospect of Israel being

637
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 10: in a position where they're going to be worse into

638
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 10: a permanent ceasefire as a result of that, and it's

639
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 10: not something for personal reasons, it's not something that he wants.

640
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 10: The second this onslaught ends is immediately the second that

641
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 10: there is accountability for Benjamin Attaniahu, and it's you know,

642
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 10: getting out of office is one thing, and potentially worse,

643
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 10: this is about completely ruining his legacy, and he's just

644
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 10: clinging with his clause, trying to salvage some image of victory,

645
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 10: not just for his immediate political position, but for his

646
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 10: legacy as well, and that's simply just not going to happen.

647
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 8: There is no realistic path forward.

648
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 10: And the question is how many more Palestinian children are

649
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 10: going to be slaughtered in order to feed Nataniaja's fantasy?

650
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 10: And at what point is our government going to say

651
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 10: enough is enough?

652
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 2: So that's the question is then and then what is

653
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 2: the fallout from this? Is this just going to dissolve

654
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 2: like every other cease fire? I mean already these reelis

655
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 2: have effectively disabout it at least somewhat.

656
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 3: The Hummus, as you said.

657
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 2: Is kind of supportive of it, but not really in

658
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 2: terms of the talking. And then the US just seems

659
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 2: to be on the phone all the time. So what

660
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 2: is the likely you know, one week from now, what

661
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 2: do you think is going to beepp.

662
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 10: Look, I think the only question that can answer that

663
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 10: is to say, is Biden going to find a backbone

664
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 10: on this or not? And so far, if the record

665
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 10: is indicative of anything, it's that he does not have

666
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 10: a backbone on this issue. But now that he has

667
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 10: made this public statement, the level of humiliation for the

668
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 10: President at this point, if Israel just knocks this proposal

669
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 10: off and moves on carrying on doing whatever it wants,

670
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 10: it's just deeply embarrassing, and it just speaks to something

671
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 10: fundamentally rotten in the relationship between the United States and Israel. Frankly,

672
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 10: where for literally decades the official American position has been

673
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 10: oppositioned to the Israeli occupation, opposition to settlements, calling for

674
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 10: more Palestinian and freedom movement and statehood and so on.

675
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 8: But policy in practice is the exact opposite.

676
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 10: It is providing Israel with unlimited military funding, unconditional diplomatic support,

677
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 10: using its veto at the UN left and right to

678
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 10: shield Israel from accountability. That contradiction is just so obvious

679
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 10: and so tragic and so frankly embarrassing to the United

680
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 10: States across the world. And something's got to give at

681
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 10: some point. And this is where we've upped the ante

682
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 10: to a maximum. And if Biden one more time, I mean,

683
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 10: just at this point, it's difficult to put into words.

684
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 1: Wow, help us understand the is rarely domestic political context,

685
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 1: so that the war cabinet is just three people. It's

686
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: Baby Nanas, you have Glant, the defense minister, it's Benny Gans.

687
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 1: Benny Gans and you have Glan have both been making noises,

688
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 1: issuing ultimatums, making noises about leaving this.

689
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 4: Cabinet you had.

690
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: Apparently smo Church and Ben Gevere were not read in

691
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 1: on whatever this proposal originally was. They immediately freak out

692
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: threatened to leave Bibe's coalition that could potentially topple his government.

693
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 1: How are we of other Yeah? Or Lapie says no,

694
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,399
Speaker 1: we'll back you up, so the government will fall. What

695
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: is what are the political calculations here for Bib at this.

696
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 4: Point, because unfortunately only four percent.

697
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 1: Of Jewish Israelis say that the IDEAF has gone too

698
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 1: far in Gaza, However, there are splits and divides in society,

699
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 1: specifically with regard to the hostages. There's been a huge

700
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 1: protest movement that once the government to be war focused

701
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 1: on bringing home the hostages. So how is how is

702
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,720
Speaker 1: his political future being determined in this moment?

703
00:34:58,840 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think.

704
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 10: There's a contrast that both of these things are true.

705
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 10: But when he talks about the threat that Smotrich and

706
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 10: ben vere pose to his ministership if they were to quit,

707
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 10: that government falls apart. That I think is the one

708
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 10: that he's more invested in, because at the end of

709
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 10: the day, the more pragmatic, when you know pragmatic in

710
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 10: the Israeli context, we should always preface these things on benigansticide,

711
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 10: those are competition for Natiniaho. These are not people that

712
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 10: Nataniaho can trust we're going to have his back. Really

713
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 10: in the long term, they might have his back long

714
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 10: enough to actually get this deal sorted out for the

715
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 10: sake of getting some hostages back, But in the long term,

716
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 10: they're not really invested in Nataniaho.

717
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 8: They see him as an opponent.

718
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 10: They want a different a change in leadership, and so

719
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 10: Nataniaho has no long term incentive to actually go.

720
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 8: Along with that line.

721
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 10: And right now you have the dynamic is set that

722
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 10: in a way where Nataniaho is being effectively accused of

723
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 10: really straining their relationship between Israel and the United States

724
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 10: to a maximum. But again, just when you look at

725
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 10: what's happening domestically in the United States is even more disheartening.

726
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 10: The way in which cong lines up Walt Wall to

727
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 10: effectively back Natanyaho at a time in which Natiniajo is

728
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 10: facing all this pressure domestically even in Israel of people

729
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 10: who want him to make that deal. Who's wanted by

730
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 10: the ICC the prosecutor. The warrants are not officially out,

731
00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 10: but the ICC prosecutor is looking for a warrant for

732
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 10: Nataniajo for the atrocious war crimes he has committed. And

733
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:22,839
Speaker 10: for this to be a time in which the US

734
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 10: Congress is willing to give Nataniahu some backing, I think

735
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 10: is incredibly trying, and.

736
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: In inviting him to come speak to them talk a

737
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:34,720
Speaker 1: little bit about the Saudi normalization deal that the Biden

738
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,399
Speaker 1: administration seems to really be you know, putting a lot

739
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 1: of stock in really putting a lot of sort of

740
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: political chips on.

741
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 10: That, you know, not just beyond this audio deal in particular,

742
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 10: it's the Abraham Accords more broadly, are just such an

743
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 10: inflated talking point that people just make so much more

744
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,279
Speaker 10: of them than actually there is to be merited. These

745
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,720
Speaker 10: are governments that are already secretly in alliance with Israel.

746
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 10: They have a common enemy in the Iran. There are

747
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 10: on the same team for the sake of domestic consumption.

748
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 10: They're not eager to be on good terms with Israel

749
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 10: publicly because they know that's very costly. Even in Saudi Arabia,

750
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 10: the polls about what people think of Israel, and it's.

751
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 8: Onslaught on Palestinians.

752
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 10: I mean just significant, very very significant, dominant opposition over

753
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 10: ninety percent of people who want to see Saudi Arabia

754
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,240
Speaker 10: basically completely cut off Israel and isolate Israel as a result.

755
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 10: So these governments understand that this is a deeply unpopular

756
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 10: move to normalize relations. At the same time, they see

757
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 10: the incentive to get closer to the United States, to

758
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 10: operate more openly against Iranian interest in the region, and

759
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 10: so on. So they do want that deal, but talking

760
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:39,959
Speaker 10: about it as if it's some kind of peace deal,

761
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 10: this magnificent thing. There is no war to begin with,

762
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,799
Speaker 10: There is no conflict between these governments and Israel, So

763
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 10: to even talk about it as some kind of grand

764
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 10: peace deal, it's just completely ridiculous, And it's a talking

765
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 10: point that Trump has used, and it's really unfortunate to

766
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 10: see people like President Biden and many Democrats pay lift

767
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 10: service to the idea that this is something that is

768
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 10: really significant that ought to be replicated and promoted if

769
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 10: it actually means anything at the end of it.

770
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 3: I mean, this gets a broader question I think of.

771
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 2: You know, if Trump does get into office and this

772
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 2: mess lands in his lap, how do you think it's

773
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 2: going to play out for him?

774
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 3: So obviously I agree.

775
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,439
Speaker 2: He will give Natseniau everything he wants in the short

776
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 2: term or at the very least the Israeli government, But

777
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 2: one of his grand motivations was creating peace. But behind

778
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 2: the scenes, do you think that even after this, that

779
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 2: it is possible for the Saudis, the UAE, and the

780
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:30,240
Speaker 2: other Gulf regimes to steal back some sort of Abraham

781
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 2: Accords framework given the level of pushback they would get

782
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:35,360
Speaker 2: in their own countries. Now, at this point, it seems

783
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,240
Speaker 2: to me that it's blown up, blown up the Abraham

784
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 2: Accords probably for all time.

785
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's it's interesting to see how that all plays out.

786
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 10: Saudi Arabia has made very clear that basically any kind

787
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 10: of normalization with Israel depends on Palestinians being back in statehood,

788
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 10: right whether they actually stick to that long term, I mean,

789
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 10: right now, it's a particularly enraging moment in the region.

790
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,760
Speaker 10: Whether when things die down that changes or not remains

791
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 10: to be seen. But it's funny that there is this

792
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 10: contrast between Trump and Biden on a personal level on

793
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 10: this issue. Trump on a personal level does not give

794
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 10: a crap about Israel. It just really does not rear

795
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 10: one with the other. It's all about him. But the

796
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 10: incentives for him politically in the Republican Party is to

797
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:12,240
Speaker 10: be as pro Israel as possible.

798
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 8: And you see it in all of the rhetoric right now.

799
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 10: Everything is directed at Biden as being insufficiently pro Israel

800
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 10: and how he's going to do more. And if Trump's

801
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 10: history shows anything, it shows that indeed to be his

802
00:39:22,920 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 10: calculus that he's put between Jared Kushner and David Friedman

803
00:39:26,520 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 10: and all kinds of pro Israel extremists that have been

804
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,840
Speaker 10: put in place, giving Israel whatever it wants, recognizing Jerusalem

805
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 10: as Israel's capital, kicking out the Palestinian ambassador in the

806
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 10: United States, shutting down the American Consul of the East Jerusalem,

807
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 10: all of that. I mean, it's very clear that it's

808
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:45,839
Speaker 10: most likely what Trump is going to do is in

809
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 10: fact make things worse for purely personal interest reasons, even

810
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 10: though he does not care about Israel one way or

811
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:51,239
Speaker 10: the other.

812
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 8: Biden is the exact opposite.

813
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 10: Biden has a deep emotional investment in Israel, but all

814
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,879
Speaker 10: of his political incentives are saying, cut this out. Your

815
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 10: base does not want this policy of continuing to support

816
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 10: this murderous onslaught. You know, it's an apartheid regime that

817
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 10: is engaged in just absolutely horrific violence against an occupied people.

818
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 10: And Israel's message to the world is there's no path

819
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 10: forward in which Palestinians are free. They have to live

820
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 10: permanently under siege and occupation, and if they don't like it,

821
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:18,879
Speaker 10: they can leave, or if they don't want to leave,

822
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 10: then they can die.

823
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:21,760
Speaker 8: That's what Israel is offering.

824
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 10: And the idea that somebody who pretends to be concerned

825
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 10: about human rights and freedom and democracy and all of

826
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 10: that can sit here and back a government who stated

827
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 10: policy is this, it's just absolutely outrageous. I mean, it's

828
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 10: really it's difficult to find the worst to describe how

829
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 10: ugly and distasteful and outrageous that kind of position is.

830
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 1: The last thing I was curious to get from you, Omars.

831
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: We covered this somewhat mysterious shooting incident between Egyptian soldiers

832
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 1: on the border and the IDF. One Egyptian soldier was killed.

833
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 1: Neither government wants to talk about it. What did you

834
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 1: make of that, the significance of it, What did you

835
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 1: read into that?

836
00:40:56,080 --> 00:41:00,360
Speaker 10: Yeah, I don't think politically it's very significant. Obviously, anytime

837
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 10: you've got two army shooting at each other, that is

838
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:05,480
Speaker 10: significant as an individual incident. But the Israeli government and

839
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 10: the Egyptian government are very very close. I mean, the

840
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 10: only real point of contention between them is whether Israel

841
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 10: wants to ethnically cleanse Palestinians in Gaza, and Egypt has

842
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,800
Speaker 10: made clear absolutely they will not accept a flood of

843
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 10: Palestinians crossing the border into their country.

844
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 8: That is the real point of tension.

845
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 10: But beyond that, they have every interest in maintaining a

846
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 10: positive relationship between the two countries, and I think the

847
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,439
Speaker 10: Egyptians are trying to put more pressure on the United

848
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 10: States to put an end to the onslaught in Gaza

849
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 10: in order to reduce the likelihood that there is going

850
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 10: to be a forcible transfer of Palestinians out of Gaza.

851
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 10: But beyond that, those are governments that are effectively on

852
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 10: the same team. The human rights violations of the Egyptian

853
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:45,880
Speaker 10: government are absolutely unspeakable. Both of them are huge recipients

854
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 10: of US military funding, so in the sense because they

855
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 10: are on the same team in the broad scheme of things,

856
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 10: I think they're both interested in playing the significance of

857
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 10: this down and not really making anything out of it.

858
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 10: It may have been just individuals on the border who

859
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 10: decided to shoot at each other and things got out

860
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 10: of had for a little bit, and everybody's eager to

861
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:02,239
Speaker 10: just move on from that, got it.

862
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 2: Well, Amar, really great to have you to have your

863
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 2: analysis here. It's been very helpful for me, so thank

864
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 2: you very much.

865
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 8: Thank you for joining me.

866
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 4: Thanks.

867
00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 8: I really appreciate being with you.

868
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:11,879
Speaker 3: Yep, and we'll see you guys later