WEBVTT - Examining Market Downturns: Microsoft, Nvidia, and TSM's Stock Potential

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<v Speaker 3>All right, So the question is that everybody wants to

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<v Speaker 3>know is too far? How far will the stock market fall?

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<v Speaker 3>So they can know when to get in. And then

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<v Speaker 3>also a lot of companies are down right and Video

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<v Speaker 3>is down over twenty five percent Microsoft, Microsoft is down,

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<v Speaker 3>Apple is down to TSM is down over twenty percent.

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<v Speaker 3>Out of all of those like major blue chip companies,

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<v Speaker 3>what's the what's the most attractive right now in this

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<v Speaker 3>down market that we're in.

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<v Speaker 4>I will go Microsoft first, TIA some second, and Video third. Really,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm here to give truth if y'all have got good

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<v Speaker 4>almostly DC. I don't care. Y'all should have been looking.

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<v Speaker 4>I told you when it was gonna fall. Yeah, And

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<v Speaker 4>notice when everybody start copying on CNBC and some of

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<v Speaker 4>you Internet gurus, everyone's like it's easy analysis. I'm like,

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<v Speaker 4>why didn't you say it two months ago? Like if

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<v Speaker 4>a company goes up eleven x over a two or

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<v Speaker 4>three year period, how many deviations does it have to

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<v Speaker 4>revert to the mean for the price to level up?

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<v Speaker 4>So I think the MV be a move right now,

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<v Speaker 4>is overvalued. I think TSM may be underpriced.

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<v Speaker 2>Now.

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<v Speaker 5>Who's going to win in the end? Microsoft because they

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<v Speaker 5>have relationships on both sides. They're buying from both cartels,

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<v Speaker 5>so they'll be fine. But I will put TSMS second.

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<v Speaker 5>For everybody in stock club, you're not paying our price

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<v Speaker 5>is our price? If I made you money, please put

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<v Speaker 5>yes in chat. But normally we're moved. I'm not looking

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<v Speaker 5>for the obvious investment. I'm looking for a contrarian investment.

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<v Speaker 5>And unless China overtakes, I don't think it happened this year.

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<v Speaker 4>Maybe next please please I hope not, because if not,

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<v Speaker 4>we really we Why two K didn't happen. But why

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<v Speaker 4>two twenty five four if they get if.

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<v Speaker 1>They get ts, yeah, let's overweight twenty thirty or something

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<v Speaker 1>like that. Maybe hopefully never, but at least by that

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<v Speaker 1>time when we have boundaries here on on all soil.

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<v Speaker 3>So Microsoft is the most attractive thing that you see

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<v Speaker 3>right now, hands down.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm going to disagree with you, okay, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to put in videos still at number one. Well

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of reasons, and Microsoft is part of the reason.

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<v Speaker 1>If we're talking about Capex and even with Microsoft reported

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<v Speaker 1>that was an issue and Amazon reported That's when.

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<v Speaker 2>I was like, all right, this is glaring, this is

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<v Speaker 2>clear and meta as well.

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<v Speaker 1>But Microsoft, Amazon specifically, which we noticed my is my

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<v Speaker 1>favorite company. When I was looking at the spendshers and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm like, well they increased spending by forty three percent,

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<v Speaker 1>Like wow, well where did it go?

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<v Speaker 2>Yep AI Innovation who they spending it with.

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<v Speaker 4>Of course you got to spend it with half, right,

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<v Speaker 4>So you.

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<v Speaker 1>Spend it with them, that's Amazon. Well, then you go

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<v Speaker 1>into Microsoft and the same thing. Cap X were obviously

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<v Speaker 1>already know their relationship with open Ai, which is getting

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<v Speaker 1>you got to keep eye on that relationship. Because it's

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<v Speaker 1>it feels like something tricky is about to happen. But again,

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<v Speaker 1>AI innovation, who are they spending it with? And video matter?

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<v Speaker 4>Sam Allman. If you think you're gonna run off of

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<v Speaker 4>the plug of Microsoft, it feels yea, I'll put you

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<v Speaker 4>on a plane with both. First.

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<v Speaker 2>Now you look like you're trying to run off with

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<v Speaker 2>the plane.

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<v Speaker 4>You can try. You're going to be one eight some rumblings.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, So now you've got Amazon, you got Microsoft, and

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<v Speaker 1>now Meta again when you they already told you their

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<v Speaker 1>commitment to it, to the spending, and they've said, look,

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<v Speaker 1>we're in the beginning stages of this. We're not slowing

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<v Speaker 1>down for a second, right, And so you got these

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<v Speaker 1>three major huge mega caap you're talking about trillion dollar

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<v Speaker 1>evaluations or market caps if all of them are spending

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<v Speaker 1>with this person, that person still remains dominant to me.

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<v Speaker 1>The fact that it's come down under ninety and we

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<v Speaker 1>kind of hinted it last week when we were like,

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<v Speaker 1>what what's the number? We hinted at it. Now that

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<v Speaker 1>it's down at I think it hit ninety four today.

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<v Speaker 1>I was on a plane pissed somebody, right, Oh my gosh,

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<v Speaker 1>I like it at this number, and so I put

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<v Speaker 1>them at number one. I have TSM at three, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm I'm I'm going to move.

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<v Speaker 2>Apple back in there.

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<v Speaker 1>Even with the sell off from the oral of Omaha,

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<v Speaker 1>I still like Apple.

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<v Speaker 4>We got to talk about it.

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<v Speaker 2>The service business.

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<v Speaker 1>When I looked at the earnings, I said, oh, my gosh,

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<v Speaker 1>you're talking about eighty three billion. I mean, how many

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<v Speaker 1>companies even have that evaluation, which is ridiculous. But the

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<v Speaker 1>technology inside of the New sixteam, from what everybody's saying,

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<v Speaker 1>and I know this is still in the beta phase,

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<v Speaker 1>is that this isn't one of those situations where oh,

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<v Speaker 1>I'll wait to get the next phone. If you want

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<v Speaker 1>to have the capabilities, you have to get this phone. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>So I throwing them in there, and then I'll put TSM.

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<v Speaker 4>Speaking of capabilities, so you're still having video b A

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<v Speaker 4>number one. Even though they put black Ball.

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<v Speaker 2>On hold, they didn't put it on hold.

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<v Speaker 4>So what the kids saying, So this is good.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm glad you said that.

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<v Speaker 3>So the.

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<v Speaker 2>Rumblings are that it is being delayed.

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<v Speaker 1>They're not going to be shipped out at the same

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<v Speaker 1>capacity that they said they were going to. They're still

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<v Speaker 1>going to be shipped out at the and this year

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<v Speaker 1>it won't be at the same level of capacity, and

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<v Speaker 1>it has to do with TSM.

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<v Speaker 2>Really, TSM does it.

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<v Speaker 1>They're trying to keep up with the demand and have

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<v Speaker 1>the actual technology that they need to create those ships

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<v Speaker 1>for blackwell, yeah, it's super challenging, and so they're trying

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<v Speaker 1>to keep up with the demand, which now again supply

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<v Speaker 1>chain situation. Now that's when put out class Yeah, yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's tricky because the slogan was new product every year,

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<v Speaker 1>and the first year that you announced it, we're having

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<v Speaker 1>a delay on.

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<v Speaker 2>The first product. So that is a little shaky.

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<v Speaker 3>So okay. For n Video, they are facing an anti

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<v Speaker 3>trust lawsuit. Florida based hedge fund with seventy billion dollars

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<v Speaker 3>in assets, sent a letter to their clients recently saying

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<v Speaker 3>mega megacap technology stocks were in a bubble and it

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<v Speaker 3>was very skeptical that big tech companies would keep buying

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<v Speaker 3>chip makers graphics processing units GPUs in such high value.

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<v Speaker 3>Hedge Fund warns that chip stocks may be in a bubble,

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<v Speaker 3>which have enjoyed a huge rally from driven investors fevering

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<v Speaker 3>over genitive AI. So long story short, they were they

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<v Speaker 3>were they're bullish on their bearish on in video they

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<v Speaker 3>said that gob hype bubble. The demand is going to

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<v Speaker 3>slow down, and like I said, they have they have

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<v Speaker 3>a pending lawsuit from the government anti trust.

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<v Speaker 4>Sounds good, you gotta go kiss the listen. You already

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<v Speaker 4>sold two million bricks. You y'all lost some black Well,

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<v Speaker 4>like ho there back in the day, It's okay, it's okay.

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<v Speaker 4>The truth. Is there going to be some slow down

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<v Speaker 4>as the person that made this a catalyst stock? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>Is it going to fall to the floor? No, no, absolutely,

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<v Speaker 4>But is there going to be as like it's all okay.

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<v Speaker 4>I'll ask you guys, have you ever seen a company

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<v Speaker 4>have seven x growth every year over year for a

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<v Speaker 4>five or six year period. We're I take the stock

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<v Speaker 4>and product out of it, we're entering a mathematical anomaly.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, remember I don't know if remember, but remember when

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<v Speaker 3>I I was talking about Ripple, and then I also

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<v Speaker 3>was saying that, like, you know, when Ripple got to

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<v Speaker 3>the point where it's market cap made the CEO like

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<v Speaker 3>the fifth richest person in the world, and it really

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<v Speaker 3>just and then I was saying, like, you know, I

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<v Speaker 3>just didn't think that in video was a more like

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<v Speaker 3>when they had when they have market caps and they're

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<v Speaker 3>bigger than every company in the world. Damn there, Google, Amazon.

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<v Speaker 3>I just don't think that in video is a is

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<v Speaker 3>a company that is more valuable than a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>these companies that they have higher valuations than it just

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<v Speaker 3>at a certain point time such.

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<v Speaker 2>Which one, Yeah, who would you put there?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, and then we have a conversation about the AI

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<v Speaker 4>bubble being true and over.

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<v Speaker 3>I just don't think that in video is a more

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<v Speaker 3>important company like in the grand scheme of life right

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<v Speaker 3>now and what Google has built, what Amazon has built.

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<v Speaker 3>At one point they was more valuable than Apple, Like

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, you know, it's it's it's difficult, Like you

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<v Speaker 3>know what I mean. It's like somebody that just got

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<v Speaker 3>drafted and they are ready in the goat conversation after

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<v Speaker 3>two years, I'm saying, Lebron, that's twenty years. So it's like,

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<v Speaker 3>all right, so if you so now you say Anthony

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<v Speaker 3>Edwards is better than Michael Joyan, right, if you want to.

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<v Speaker 4>Ti of them first two three years, maybe if he

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<v Speaker 4>came out to Game one. Okay, this is the true

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<v Speaker 4>and video is powering all the major tech companies at

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<v Speaker 4>some point though, if Blackwell does not coming out of

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<v Speaker 4>the speed that it needs to, somebody could take that lead.

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<v Speaker 4>That lead could go to TSM. We're in a battle

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<v Speaker 4>off than that, Like that was aie that co pilot

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<v Speaker 4>runs off of. Everyone reacts the ship.

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<v Speaker 1>It's still contingent though, right, Like so it's still contingent

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<v Speaker 1>on TSM producing. So they actually they need each other.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't until and Video decides that.

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<v Speaker 4>But that, I mean, it's an inevitable and video cannot

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<v Speaker 4>Number three rule and branding. You cannot be attached to

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<v Speaker 4>a supplier for a long period of time if you

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<v Speaker 4>want to be the pre eminent leader in the world.

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<v Speaker 4>Apple went through this. But like you've got to detach

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<v Speaker 4>and make your own stuff on ground especially so now

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<v Speaker 4>you the point now, now, yeah, that was the point

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<v Speaker 4>I was going to.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like, yes, they will detach, right, and then if

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<v Speaker 1>they detach, which is going to take ten years, right,

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<v Speaker 1>if you even get to the technologies, what happens to

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<v Speaker 1>the revenue If you're not spending with the company that

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<v Speaker 1>is building your chips, the revenue goes up. The valuation

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<v Speaker 1>is going to go higher. If everybody That's why I said,

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<v Speaker 1>if it's a slow down, then go read Meta's earnings report. Correct,

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<v Speaker 1>Go read Microsofts, Go read Amazons, go read Apples. Where

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<v Speaker 1>is their capecks going? If it's a slowdown, then those

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<v Speaker 1>companies wouldn't be spending at that levels that they are.

0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:58.000
<v Speaker 1>And each of those CEOs said that we're not slowing

0:11:58.000 --> 0:11:59.320
<v Speaker 1>down anytime soon.

0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:04.320
<v Speaker 4>Yep, also too. Y'all know, historically I've hated RSI, but

0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:08.120
<v Speaker 4>if we look at the RSI on the Monkey, my

0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:09.880
<v Speaker 4>real numbers is ninety five and five. It is the

0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:11.959
<v Speaker 4>last like big ninety fives.

0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:12.880
<v Speaker 2>Which one are you looking at?

0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:18.400
<v Speaker 4>What company? Nvidia currently? They're currently at sixty nine right now,

0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:21.880
<v Speaker 4>So if we're going off mathematical averages, they should pull

0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:26.480
<v Speaker 4>back for sixty two to ninety four days as a result.

0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:30.840
<v Speaker 4>Great bond opportunity if it gets there. But we have

0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:33.680
<v Speaker 4>been over sold, and I do agree with evaluation metric,

0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:36.920
<v Speaker 4>but we have to have a bigger conversation in corporate America.

0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.240
<v Speaker 4>Enough companies are not producing shit that really matters. That's

0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:44.280
<v Speaker 4>my issue. So if they are the supplier the cartel

0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:47.520
<v Speaker 4>to all the tech monopolies and only seven companies can

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.560
<v Speaker 4>really buy from them, what about the military companies that

0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:54.120
<v Speaker 4>are falling apart would have low profit margin three percent

0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:56.280
<v Speaker 4>profit marks. You can't run a company off three percent

0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:56.960
<v Speaker 4>profit margins.

0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:57.760
<v Speaker 2>Do you ask that question?

0:12:57.800 --> 0:12:59.439
<v Speaker 4>No, great rate cuts.

0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:02.960
<v Speaker 1>So we spoke about data dump and the answer to

0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:06.480
<v Speaker 1>that question is the number two supply. So even during

0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:09.920
<v Speaker 1>this pullback, if you watch AMD over the past week

0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:12.920
<v Speaker 1>two weeks, it's been kind of steady. There's actually been

0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:15.800
<v Speaker 1>up maybe two or three percent because of some of

0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:17.680
<v Speaker 1>that issue. But I agree with you, right, and we

0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:19.160
<v Speaker 1>kind of went over this a few weeks ago. But

0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:22.200
<v Speaker 1>we have to get to the point where they're going

0:13:22.280 --> 0:13:27.400
<v Speaker 1>to have to start seeing the byproduct of the spend. Right,

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:31.679
<v Speaker 1>has it increased efficiency? Probably has it increased revenue? We

0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:32.160
<v Speaker 1>don't know.

0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:36.360
<v Speaker 3>Well, the hotel only to hotel, an.

0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:40.880
<v Speaker 6>Illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child in Massachusetts.

0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:44.520
<v Speaker 6>An MS thirteen gang member from El Salvador accused of

0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 6>murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with filming and

0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:52.560
<v Speaker 6>selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just some of

0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:56.240
<v Speaker 6>the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President Donald J.

0:13:56.360 --> 0:14:00.160
<v Speaker 6>Trump's leadership. I'm Christine Noman, the United States Secretary of

0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:04.960
<v Speaker 6>Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are

0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.440
<v Speaker 6>at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred

0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:12.320
<v Speaker 6>thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you are here illegally,

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:16.120
<v Speaker 6>your next you will be fine nearly one thousand dollars

0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:20.320
<v Speaker 6>a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will never return. But

0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 6>if you register using our CBP home app and leave now,

0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:27.400
<v Speaker 6>you could be allowed to return legally. Do what's right,

0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:32.920
<v Speaker 6>leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws, border and families

0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:33.960
<v Speaker 6>will be protected.

0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:36.200
<v Speaker 4>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,