WEBVTT - Baltimore Collapse and Market Bulls 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.160 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.400 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:50.360 my equity conversation of the day, so I'm going to 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:50.680 have it. 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:52.560 Immediately on the podcast. 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:54.680 Single best idea, which we'll get out here in the 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:58.880 number of hours. Julian, Emmanuel, you and ed Heiman are 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:01.959 sitting around having an He's got that black penalt, He's 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:02.400 trying to. 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:03.480 Get your white shirt dirty. 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:07.679 You're writing up the ed Heeiman evercore Isi. Note, what 0:01:07.920 --> 0:01:11.240 is the surprise of Hymen and Emmanuel in the last 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:12.000 ninety days? 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:15.839 Ed Heeyman is rarely surprised. What's been the surprise? 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:20.039 I think ed has been surprised by this stickiness of inflation. 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:23.160 And if you think about what the Fed's narrative has 0:01:23.280 --> 0:01:27.520 been since the December pivot, you should be surprised by 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:31.319 it because it doesn't make sense with that conversation, with 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:35.760 any precedent that we are familiar with with regard to inflation. 0:01:36.080 --> 0:01:39.319 Ed still sees the trajectory. As you know, he's been 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:43.560 aggressive and early on the inflation falling story. He thinks 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:46.039 this is just a bump in the road, but likely 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:49.480 takes that sort of getting to that last mile a 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:51.160 week or economy in the second half. 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:54.960 All right, So Julie, for this market here as long 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:58.560 as we can remember, TeX's been leading this market, big text, 0:01:58.560 --> 0:02:01.000 been leading this market upward and down. Or if you 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:04.200 think about that twenty twenty two, can tech still lead. 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:05.000 This market going forward? 0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:08.280 Well, tech can still lead the market. But what we've 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:12.400 seen over the last several weeks in particular, but actually 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:16.360 this goes back a number of months, is record dispersion 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:17.280 among stocks. 0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:18.080 Think about it. 0:02:18.160 --> 0:02:22.079 Right before the bear market in twenty twenty two, it 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.680 was called fang. Then when we started turning in twenty 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:29.519 twenty three, we got to the magnificent seven. Now it's 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:33.359 ostensibly really only the Magnificent four. And what troubles us 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:36.480 when we look at the second quarter expecting more volatility, 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:40.440 is that Magnificent four is starting to look a little 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:41.560 less magnificent. 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:44.000 To be clear, here, this is the hallmark of you 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:46.400 and Ed Hyman. You're in the market. I don't hear 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:47.120 go to cash. 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:51.120 Oh yeah, no, absolutely absolutely not. Look, this is one 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.800 of these times again, and you know, you go back 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:58.920 and you think of the times where there may have 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:03.320 been a motion reasons, there may have been stress reasons, 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:05.519 And March of twenty twenty is the purpose. 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:06.320 I was thinking. 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:10.840 October of eighty six, Lenny Dykch's home run in Game three. 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:13.720 For the Mets. The ball has never come down. It 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:14.160 went over. 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:17.320 Everett was lost over marblehead. I mean, what the Mets 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:19.760 did in nineteen eighty six, we've never gotten over. 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:23.399 I'm staring at your red Sox jacket, Tom, and all 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:25.280 I can say is Bill Buckner, and I knew you 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:26.600 were expecting that. 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:31.320 Duncasses out here, So Brama walked by with a white sign. 0:03:31.400 --> 0:03:32.760 Bill Buckner, it's opening. 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:38.320 Paul, save us here, Julian, you and your strategist brethren 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:40.520 on Wall Street. I see you guys trip it over 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:42.760 each other trying to keep raising your ear end targets 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:43.760 for twenty twenty four. 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:47.720 How are you thinking about valuation here? 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.760 This is the arch question, Paul. This is a single 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:51.960 best question right there. 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:56.800 We're taking a different tack here, Paul, okay, and ended 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:59.480 its earnings and valuation driven as it should be. Now 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:03.280 I will say is that my focus on valuation has 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:07.000 been unlike anything I recall in my career. Frankly, I 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:11.560 was managing money in Y two K. So that's why 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:13.760 the first thing we have to do is step back 0:04:13.800 --> 0:04:16.839 and say, the market is exuberant, but it is nowhere 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:19.840 near irrational. Twenty eight times what you saw in Y 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:22.600 two K, which would imply sixty two hundred or so 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:25.800 in the S and B is exuberant. But from our 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:30.560 point of view, with the accumulated sort of perfection priced 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:33.719 in and the possibility that the FED isn't going to 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:37.800 be able to deliver, and that eleven percent earnings growth 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:41.159 which has been basically the baseline for the last couple 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:45.359 of months, has downside as we think it does. The 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:47.719 way the way you want to think about this is 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:53.040 how do you stay in your core positions with perhaps 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:56.480 a tilt towards defense and not get scared because the 0:04:56.960 --> 0:05:02.400 history of making a sub our returns in investing comes 0:05:02.400 --> 0:05:06.120 from selling into down markets, as opposed to just sort 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:10.719 of thinking about how you position when things are good 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:11.240 as they are. 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:14.240 Now, do we still chase this market? I mean, if 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:17.320 I chase this market, I feel like and I'm I'm 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:20.120 Joe portfolio manager out there, Joe an investor with my 0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:21.680 four to one K, I feel like I have to 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:24.600 be in those magnificent four or five names, whatever they are. 0:05:24.720 --> 0:05:24.960 Well. 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:29.080 So, actually, the amazing thing is the options market is 0:05:29.240 --> 0:05:32.080 this is one of these very rare times where you're 0:05:32.120 --> 0:05:35.120 allowed to have your cake and eat it too, because 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:41.560 the combination of this incredible retail investor FOMO. Remember the 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:44.520 market is being moved in large part by zero days 0:05:44.560 --> 0:05:47.120 to expiration options trading on the part of the public, 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:50.440 where you control a million dollars worth of stock for 0:05:50.600 --> 0:05:54.080 less than ten thousand dollars and the position closes every day. 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:57.880 That kind of FOMO and five percent interest rates give 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:01.159 you the ability to stay in those mag seven names 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:03.680 but actually have downside protection. 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:06.760 Julian Emmanuel, I think he's trying to get me to 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:08.440 be my first trade. Thank you so much for the 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:10.200 evercore I I We'll get him back here for a 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:25.120 much longer conversation in the coming days. The little window 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:28.120 into the childhood of Tom Keene. It was a twisted 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:31.080 and strange childhood. I would read the Wall Street Journal 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:34.279 the day after I would sit in the pretty fancy 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:38.840 dining room, and my father would read today's Wall Street Journal, 0:06:38.960 --> 0:06:41.120 and I would read the one before, which was folded 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:44.960 up neatly and with engineering blue and red pencil and 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:48.239 probably with an Oberlin napkin on it from my mother 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:54.360 would be underlined Centrist political theory, and it started with 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:59.000 Scoop Jackson, HHH, Ed Burkham Massachusetts and others. 0:06:59.240 --> 0:07:00.720 Nobody is riven. 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:06.039 The centrist conversation forward like Richard Haas serving multiple presidents, 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:11.360 multiple parties and Paul There is a interview, I should say, 0:07:11.400 --> 0:07:15.320 a conversation with Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut where Hass 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:18.280 is impossibly young in two thousand and four, and we 0:07:18.320 --> 0:07:21.640 are so honored today to bring invest in or Hassan 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:23.400 to talk about our. 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:25.960 Modern centrist Joe Lieberman. 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:30.240 Boy, are we starving Richard Haass for centrist politics? 0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:34.320 I have this vision, Tom, that it's only a matter 0:07:34.360 --> 0:07:38.120 of time before the Post Office issues a stamp. And 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:40.800 it's a series of centrists, and it basically has a 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:45.040 thing endangered species. And Joe Lieberman was one of the best. 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:50.119 I look at his politics and his courage at the time, 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:54.360 and a lot of heat and critique of moving left 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:57.040 to right. Do you have a tendency now to see 0:07:57.080 --> 0:08:01.160 people from the polarized right moving to the center or 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:03.640 is that a fiction for another day and age? 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.920 I think it's mostly a fiction for another day and age. 0:08:07.960 --> 0:08:12.680 Most of the incentives or pressures in American politics, from money, 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:16.080 to political support to attention, is to move, if I 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:19.040 may use a football metaphor in this opening day of baseball, 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:22.560 towards the end zones rather than the middle of the field. 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:25.000 Takes a lot of guts. It takes off in a 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:28.160 willingness even to lose. If you're going to put country 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:31.840 before party or your own personal ambitions, you've got to 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.199 be prepared to lose. And I haven't noticed Tom a 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:35.880 whole lot of people who are prepared to. 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:38.800 Richard, there's so many hotspots around the world we could 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:42.319 benefit from your analysis here. Let's start with the Middle East. 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:45.760 I know you've had recently someone's perceived as a radical plan, 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:48.720 a radical suggestion for President Biden about how he should 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:52.000 deal with mister net Yahu as it relates to what's 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:53.920 happening in Goazack, you share that with us. 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:57.200 Yeah, What I basically been saying is he doesn't have 0:08:57.240 --> 0:08:59.920 a partner in this Israeli government or this is really 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:03.720 prime Minister. All of his efforts at persuading them haven't 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:06.200 amounted to much of anything. So he's got to go 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:08.560 over their head. He's got to speak directly to the 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:12.840 Israeli people about Israel's future. If it wants to remain 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:17.040 a secure, prosperous Jewish democratic state, it's got to choose 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:19.320 a different path in Gaza, it's got to choose a 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:23.720 different path in the West Bank. And I even suggested 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:26.280 he go to the Kanessa, do it from the floor 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:28.760 of the Israeli Parliament. Take a page out of bb 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:32.240 nets and Yahoo's book who came to Washington spoke from 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:36.240 the Congress to speak against the Iran nuclear deal? But 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:38.000 I don't quite care whether he does it from the 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:41.320 Knesse or not. I think, though, what we're actually seeing 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:45.320 is the administration is moving away from a policy that's 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:49.280 predicated on persuading bb nets in Yahoo, and they're dealing 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:52.320 much more with the policy that's either independent, we're going 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:55.400 to provide aid, we're going to veto this resolution or 0:09:55.440 --> 0:10:00.440 introduce our own and essentially pressuring the Israeli government. So 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:01.760 I think it's a healthy change. 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:06.920 What is the status of net Yahu in Israel right now? 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:10.040 Does he still have the support given how what's happened 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:11.480 over the last several months. 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:16.240 Yeah, I mean the poll show he's quite unpopular. But 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:18.960 there's only two ways to remove a sitting prime minister, 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:23.480 and that's through a parliamentary reshuffle or an election. At 0:10:23.480 --> 0:10:26.439 the moment, I don't see a parliamentary reshuffling coming about. 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:29.160 It's not clear to me that his current coalition partners 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:31.800 want to dump them, not because they love him, but 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:35.680 they love being in power. And at the moment, no 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.079 one's there's not a mechanism to get from here to 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:41.160 new elections. It's possible to bru the government could be 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:43.679 brought down on any number of issues. If you remember, 0:10:43.760 --> 0:10:47.480 before October seventh, the dividing issue in Israel was about 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:50.440 the role of the courts and democracy. Now there's big 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.760 debates about whether the ultra Orthodox ought to be conscripted. 0:10:54.080 --> 0:10:56.280 So there's lots of ways, lots of fault lines in 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.920 Israeli politics. But at the moment, like it or not, 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:01.680 kan Yahoo as Prime Minister. 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:04.960 Ambassador House, we stagger into April. We have a clear 0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:08.200 image of history of a lame duck Congress. Can we 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:12.920 have a lame duck State Department, a lame duck foreign policy? 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:17.400 I think that's too critical because most foreign policy doesn't 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:20.200 travel through the Congress. I mean the Ukraine situation. The 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:24.000 funding THEIRTOP is in some ways different because again it 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:27.000 requires congressional approval. So they're the real issue is what 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:29.960 is the House of Representatives do? What are the Republicans do? 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:33.280 But I think in the Middle East, with China and 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:35.280 so forth, like can a lot of other areas, do 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:38.960 your presidents enjoy a lot of discretion, a lot of latitude. 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:40.920 So I don't think it's fair to say that even 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:43.880 though the State Department, to be honest, is a weak duck, 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:46.920 most of the energy now in American farm policy doesn't 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:47.600 come from State. 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:48.319 I would say the. 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:52.120 Lion's share comes from the National Security Council. Are some 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:54.360 of the issues you talk about on this show. I 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:56.960 would say even the Commerce department counts for a lot. 0:11:57.200 --> 0:11:59.200 I don't want to get into your personal knitting here 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:02.040 in your forty eight over day, but you know he's 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:03.320 working seven days a week. 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:05.640 You know he's slowing down here. 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:09.200 Did any of the CEOs that greeted mister g in China? 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:12.320 Did any of them get a host briefing? And if not, 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:16.520 how do you brief CEOs and confronting the new China? 0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:20.280 They did not in this case. So I spend a 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:22.000 lot of my day, give them my new life and 0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:25.440 centerviews bucking to CEOs. I think China's probably the single 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:31.199 most frequently raised issue, Tom. Look, Chi Jinping is courting CEOs. 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:34.360 He did it in San Francisco in November, if you recall, 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:38.000 he's doing it now. He is hoping that American CEOs 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:41.480 essentially become all lobby for what China wants in the 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:47.280 US relationship, which essentially is fewer towers, lower tariffs, lower 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:52.040 constraints on investment, lower constraints on trade, and he's hoping 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:55.320 that he can essentially get them to press the government 0:12:56.880 --> 0:13:00.800 to ease up on China. That's why twenty twenty four. 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:03.360 I mean, that's what China wants in twenty twenty four. 0:13:03.840 --> 0:13:08.080 What the Biden administration wants is no new hotspot with 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:11.600 Taiwan or North Korea or anything else. But no, that's 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:15.079 what this is about. And I think American CEOs need 0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:18.360 to understand that anything to deal with technology is going 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:21.600 to be constrained with China, and if there's a crisis 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:26.760 over Taiwan, nothing is immune from political pressure. 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:29.800 Richard has thank you so much, particularly those comments on 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:39.000 Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut Anna Wan, she's had a bloomberg 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:41.840 economics and what will you listen for from the chairman? 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.600 Is this a speech of substance or is this a nuisance? 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:50.120 By that, I assume you're talking about Powell. Yes, yes, 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:53.840 I think you know right. So since the FOMC we 0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:57.200 have heard, the most important speeches so far has been Waller, 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:01.600 and we heard from Waller, who is the more hawkish 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:06.280 side of the FOMC, saying that while the FOMC is 0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.960 not over overreacting to the hot inflation prints in the 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:12.959 first two months of the year, they must react to it. 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:15.559 And I think that is the message that would come 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:19.560 through in powell speech that they're taking, they will be 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:23.720 taking a very cautious approach to a deliberate approach to 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:28.840 interpreting the inflation data. That said, tomorrow we are also 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:33.360 going to get the core PC inflation data. And if 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.040 Powell and everybody on the Wall Street is right, then 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:39.240 it's going to come in at zero point three percent 0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.720 for core PC and two point eight percent for year 0:14:42.760 --> 0:14:45.120 over year, which is the okay inflation number. 0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.560 And we had some I guess some look back economic 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.880 data today. The GDP number four the fourth quarter revised, 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:54.960 our community revised higher three point four percent. The survey 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:58.200 was three point two percent. We also had continuing claims 0:14:58.280 --> 0:15:01.840 kind of regular line of the expectations. Anything that we 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:05.400 receive today economic news wise, alter your opinion at all. 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:10.360 Yeah, I thought the most interesting data today is the GDI. 0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:15.360 So GDI grew at over four point eight percent in 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:18.680 real terms in the fourth quarter, and as you know, 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:22.160 the most GDI is supposed to be equal to GDP. 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:25.000 Yet over the past two years, the biggest, one of 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.200 the biggest puzzle in economics is that they are not. 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:31.120 And GDI has been finally running below and. 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:33.400 Can you define GDI from me? And I'm guessing some 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:34.840 other listeners and viewers. 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:40.520 Yes, So GDI means gross domestic income and it measures 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:42.800 the income side of things. So it's supposed to be 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:49.240 wage compensation plus firms profits plus governments profits that that 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:54.240 would equal GDP, which measures the expenditure side of things. 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.600 So what we saw in the very very strong GDI 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:02.320 number for fourth quarter is this big pop in firm 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:06.480 profits and drilling down into so there's a you know, 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:11.080 a thirteen percent increase on net operating surflus of firms 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:15.840 and drilling down it turns out it's a category called 0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:20.080 dividend and business current transfer payments that rose by thirty 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:23.480 percent on a quarterly seasonal adjusted basis in the fourth 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:28.480 quarter that drove this giantantic pop in GDI. And what 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:32.040 that means is it's the stock rally. So I think 0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:36.360 the stock rally and easier financial conditions in stock market 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.800 in the fourth quarter is starting to really show up 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:42.760 in hard data. So we saw that in GDI today 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:46.880 and in the Personal Income Report that comes out tomorrow 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.560 we will be paying attention to also the line item 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:52.480 called personal dividend income. 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:54.320 You saund like you on a green span of thirty 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:56.520 years ago, analog simply, here are we going to get 0:16:56.520 --> 0:17:01.640 a nominal GDP of that supports revenue of corporations in America. 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.800 It does looked like that was happening in the fourth quarter. 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:12.199 Perhaps that was the fundamentals that's driving the stock market rally. 0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:15.120 Okay, Anna, thank you so much, doctor Wong as head 0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:29.119 of all of Bloomberg Economics in America. You look at 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:31.840 the front pages around the world. Shout out the Globe 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:35.879 and Mail in Toronto on point yesterday with a speech 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:39.320 by the Deputy governor the Bank of Canada and Halifax. 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:40.600 That's how he is. Wow. 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:46.399 And she ripped apart the Canadian productivity story. 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:49.119 Well, she tore it. I've never seen a speech like 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:52.120 that in America. She tore them. People are really upset 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.200 about it. That's your front page look from Canada. 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:57.240 I did an audible there, at least I didn't mean 0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:58.720 to get out in front of the Globin. 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:00.000 Man, what do you start? 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:02.760 That's okay, and welcome back, by the way, thank you. 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:06.159 So we're starting with this was like our top story today. 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:09.800 Long time Connecticut US Senator Joe Lieberman passed away yesterday. 0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:12.399 He was eighty two complications from a fall. But the 0:18:12.480 --> 0:18:16.000 reaction from friends and from rivals. They are just starting 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:17.359 to pour in, so I wanted to get to a 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:19.480 few of them. You had Al Gore, the former vice 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:22.440 president who chose Lieberman, you know, and his running mate 0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:24.879 during two thousand election. He said it was an honor 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:27.600 to stand side by side with him on the campaign trail. 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:29.560 Then you have former President George W. 0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:29.960 Bush. 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.760 He was the victor with Cheney, you know, over the 0:18:32.760 --> 0:18:35.679 Gore Lieberman ticket. He said, in both loss and victory, 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:39.000 Joe Lieberman was always a gentleman. And this one I 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:41.480 find I really enjoyed this one. Senator Lindsay Grahama of 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.840 South Carolina, he was close to Lieberman and Senator John McCain. 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:48.520 They called themselves the three amigos. He said, the good 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:50.800 news is that he's in the hands of loving God. 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:53.520 He said. The bad news John McCain is giving him 0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:55.960 an earful about how screwed up things are. And he 0:18:56.040 --> 0:19:00.960 signed that statement as the last amigos amount here. 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:03.919 And what is so important, particularly for younger people to 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:08.560 understand the Senator Lieberman is this was a throwback, Lisa, to. 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:13.280 What was normal. You had Mario Cuomo, you. 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:19.879 Had Scoop Jackson, you had hhh, Hubert Humphrey in Minnesota, 0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:24.600 and Joe Lieberman was the centrist you know, became far 0:19:24.720 --> 0:19:30.040 more centrist here from another time in place in what 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:34.040 so said Paul is his politics is now odd. 0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:35.520 Yeah and singular. 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:37.960 I mean you think about him and John McCain, two 0:19:38.040 --> 0:19:40.080 ends of the spectrum, but you could just absolutely see 0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:43.360 them after a day in having a cocktail again. 0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:44.640 Yeah, what else do you have here? 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:48.320 Sure this was an interest from Politico. The Baltimore Bridge design. 0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:52.639 They're saying it likely contributed to that loss of the bridge. 0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:54.639 So the collapse are saying could have been avoided if 0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:57.280 it had this simple fenders that's what they're calling it. 0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.480 That could have been standard issue on new bridges since 0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:02.920 the nineteen nineties. So it's installed around the supporting beams. 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:05.679 That's what these are. Because the ships are getting bigger, 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:07.440 and that's the issue. You had the Dolly, It was 0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.679 a thousand feet long. It had tons and tons of 0:20:10.720 --> 0:20:11.359 cargo on. 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:18.600 Its changed many cargo things were on top, I mean ten, yeah, twelve, 0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:19.920 fifty stacked high. 0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:20.120 Yeah. 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:21.520 I don't know. I don't know how that works. I 0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:23.119 don't know how they stay afloat. I don't know. How 0:20:23.119 --> 0:20:25.760 they don't flip over out in the open sea. It's 0:20:25.800 --> 0:20:29.240 just extraordinary. But it's I can't imagine designing a bridge 0:20:29.240 --> 0:20:31.320 to withstand a ship running into it. 0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:33.400 Right, And that's the problem. The ships weren't as big 0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:35.840 back then when you know these were designed. The fenders 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:37.639 were started back when the when the bridge was designed. 0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:39.720 But it makes some sense, but they just didn't put 0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:42.400 them on them this time. Okay, so this is from 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:45.960 tech Crunch LinkedIn. Something different you might see on LinkedIn. 0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:50.639 They're having short form videos, so similar to TikTok. So 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:54.080 a lot of people are starting doing you know, Instagram, YouTube, Snapchat, Netflix, 0:20:54.080 --> 0:20:56.720 they all do these short form videos. So here's where 0:20:56.720 --> 0:20:58.680 you find it. If you go over to LinkedIn, it's 0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:02.240 in their navigation bar, new video tab, And then when 0:21:02.240 --> 0:21:04.439 you click on it, you start seeing this little feed 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:06.840 of all these you know, short form videos that go 0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:09.800 by and you can swipe through it, you can like it, 0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:12.320 you can comment, you can share it. So it's very 0:21:12.359 --> 0:21:15.520 similar to TikTok. How it can be different for LinkedIn 0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:17.520 is the question. I guess you have to focus on 0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:20.480 careers and professionalism, but I don't know, Tom, you got 0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:22.639 to start working on those short short stores medium. 0:21:22.840 --> 0:21:25.800 This is an untold story then social as Microsoft took 0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:29.040 over LinkedIn, and I would suggest as an amateur that 0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:33.480 very quietly they have changed it. I would editorialize, they've 0:21:33.480 --> 0:21:38.200 improved it. And it's shocking the difference in flow now 0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:42.440 between LinkedIn and mister Musk's X, which I still call 0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:45.280 Twitter would but they're going to TikTok LinkedIn? 0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:46.320 Is that what you're telling me? 0:21:46.400 --> 0:21:48.240 It's all about video short form. 0:21:48.359 --> 0:21:51.720 Yes, it keeps people entertaining doing it is. 0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:54.320 Too they you know, we're thinking of doing Paul Sweeney's 0:21:54.320 --> 0:21:55.480 short forms on YouTube. 0:21:57.359 --> 0:21:58.679 T monetize. 0:21:58.920 --> 0:21:59.639