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Speaker 2: my equity conversation of the day, so I'm going to
Speaker 2: have it.
Speaker 3: Immediately on the podcast.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, which we'll get out here in the
Speaker 2: number of hours. Julian, Emmanuel, you and ed Heiman are
Speaker 2: sitting around having an He's got that black penalt, He's
Speaker 2: trying to.
Speaker 3: Get your white shirt dirty.
Speaker 2: You're writing up the ed Heeiman evercore Isi. Note, what
Speaker 2: is the surprise of Hymen and Emmanuel in the last
Speaker 2: ninety days?
Speaker 3: Ed Heeyman is rarely surprised. What's been the surprise?
Speaker 1: I think ed has been surprised by this stickiness of inflation.
Speaker 1: And if you think about what the Fed's narrative has
Speaker 1: been since the December pivot, you should be surprised by
Speaker 1: it because it doesn't make sense with that conversation, with
Speaker 1: any precedent that we are familiar with with regard to inflation.
Speaker 1: Ed still sees the trajectory. As you know, he's been
Speaker 1: aggressive and early on the inflation falling story. He thinks
Speaker 1: this is just a bump in the road, but likely
Speaker 1: takes that sort of getting to that last mile a
Speaker 1: week or economy in the second half.
Speaker 4: All right, So Julie, for this market here as long
Speaker 4: as we can remember, TeX's been leading this market, big text,
Speaker 4: been leading this market upward and down. Or if you
Speaker 4: think about that twenty twenty two, can tech still lead.
Speaker 3: This market going forward?
Speaker 1: Well, tech can still lead the market. But what we've
Speaker 1: seen over the last several weeks in particular, but actually
Speaker 1: this goes back a number of months, is record dispersion
Speaker 1: among stocks.
Speaker 3: Think about it.
Speaker 1: Right before the bear market in twenty twenty two, it
Speaker 1: was called fang. Then when we started turning in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty three, we got to the magnificent seven. Now it's
Speaker 1: ostensibly really only the Magnificent four. And what troubles us
Speaker 1: when we look at the second quarter expecting more volatility,
Speaker 1: is that Magnificent four is starting to look a little
Speaker 1: less magnificent.
Speaker 2: To be clear, here, this is the hallmark of you
Speaker 2: and Ed Hyman. You're in the market. I don't hear
Speaker 2: go to cash.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, no, absolutely absolutely not. Look, this is one
Speaker 1: of these times again, and you know, you go back
Speaker 1: and you think of the times where there may have
Speaker 1: been a motion reasons, there may have been stress reasons,
Speaker 1: And March of twenty twenty is the purpose.
Speaker 3: I was thinking.
Speaker 2: October of eighty six, Lenny Dykch's home run in Game three.
Speaker 3: For the Mets. The ball has never come down. It
Speaker 3: went over.
Speaker 2: Everett was lost over marblehead. I mean, what the Mets
Speaker 2: did in nineteen eighty six, we've never gotten over.
Speaker 1: I'm staring at your red Sox jacket, Tom, and all
Speaker 1: I can say is Bill Buckner, and I knew you
Speaker 1: were expecting that.
Speaker 2: Duncasses out here, So Brama walked by with a white sign.
Speaker 3: Bill Buckner, it's opening.
Speaker 5: Paul, save us here, Julian, you and your strategist brethren
Speaker 5: on Wall Street. I see you guys trip it over
Speaker 5: each other trying to keep raising your ear end targets
Speaker 5: for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4: How are you thinking about valuation here?
Speaker 3: This is the arch question, Paul. This is a single
Speaker 3: best question right there.
Speaker 1: We're taking a different tack here, Paul, okay, and ended
Speaker 1: its earnings and valuation driven as it should be. Now
Speaker 1: I will say is that my focus on valuation has
Speaker 1: been unlike anything I recall in my career. Frankly, I
Speaker 1: was managing money in Y two K. So that's why
Speaker 1: the first thing we have to do is step back
Speaker 1: and say, the market is exuberant, but it is nowhere
Speaker 1: near irrational. Twenty eight times what you saw in Y
Speaker 1: two K, which would imply sixty two hundred or so
Speaker 1: in the S and B is exuberant. But from our
Speaker 1: point of view, with the accumulated sort of perfection priced
Speaker 1: in and the possibility that the FED isn't going to
Speaker 1: be able to deliver, and that eleven percent earnings growth
Speaker 1: which has been basically the baseline for the last couple
Speaker 1: of months, has downside as we think it does. The
Speaker 1: way the way you want to think about this is
Speaker 1: how do you stay in your core positions with perhaps
Speaker 1: a tilt towards defense and not get scared because the
Speaker 1: history of making a sub our returns in investing comes
Speaker 1: from selling into down markets, as opposed to just sort
Speaker 1: of thinking about how you position when things are good
Speaker 1: as they are.
Speaker 4: Now, do we still chase this market? I mean, if
Speaker 4: I chase this market, I feel like and I'm I'm
Speaker 4: Joe portfolio manager out there, Joe an investor with my
Speaker 4: four to one K, I feel like I have to
Speaker 4: be in those magnificent four or five names, whatever they are.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 1: So, actually, the amazing thing is the options market is
Speaker 1: this is one of these very rare times where you're
Speaker 1: allowed to have your cake and eat it too, because
Speaker 1: the combination of this incredible retail investor FOMO. Remember the
Speaker 1: market is being moved in large part by zero days
Speaker 1: to expiration options trading on the part of the public,
Speaker 1: where you control a million dollars worth of stock for
Speaker 1: less than ten thousand dollars and the position closes every day.
Speaker 1: That kind of FOMO and five percent interest rates give
Speaker 1: you the ability to stay in those mag seven names
Speaker 1: but actually have downside protection.
Speaker 2: Julian Emmanuel, I think he's trying to get me to
Speaker 2: be my first trade. Thank you so much for the
Speaker 2: evercore I I We'll get him back here for a
Speaker 2: much longer conversation in the coming days. The little window
Speaker 2: into the childhood of Tom Keene. It was a twisted
Speaker 2: and strange childhood. I would read the Wall Street Journal
Speaker 2: the day after I would sit in the pretty fancy
Speaker 2: dining room, and my father would read today's Wall Street Journal,
Speaker 2: and I would read the one before, which was folded
Speaker 2: up neatly and with engineering blue and red pencil and
Speaker 2: probably with an Oberlin napkin on it from my mother
Speaker 2: would be underlined Centrist political theory, and it started with
Speaker 2: Scoop Jackson, HHH, Ed Burkham Massachusetts and others.
Speaker 3: Nobody is riven.
Speaker 2: The centrist conversation forward like Richard Haas serving multiple presidents,
Speaker 2: multiple parties and Paul There is a interview, I should say,
Speaker 2: a conversation with Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut where Hass
Speaker 2: is impossibly young in two thousand and four, and we
Speaker 2: are so honored today to bring invest in or Hassan
Speaker 2: to talk about our.
Speaker 3: Modern centrist Joe Lieberman.
Speaker 2: Boy, are we starving Richard Haass for centrist politics?
Speaker 6: I have this vision, Tom, that it's only a matter
Speaker 6: of time before the Post Office issues a stamp. And
Speaker 6: it's a series of centrists, and it basically has a
Speaker 6: thing endangered species. And Joe Lieberman was one of the best.
Speaker 2: I look at his politics and his courage at the time,
Speaker 2: and a lot of heat and critique of moving left
Speaker 2: to right. Do you have a tendency now to see
Speaker 2: people from the polarized right moving to the center or
Speaker 2: is that a fiction for another day and age?
Speaker 6: I think it's mostly a fiction for another day and age.
Speaker 6: Most of the incentives or pressures in American politics, from money,
Speaker 6: to political support to attention, is to move, if I
Speaker 6: may use a football metaphor in this opening day of baseball,
Speaker 6: towards the end zones rather than the middle of the field.
Speaker 6: Takes a lot of guts. It takes off in a
Speaker 6: willingness even to lose. If you're going to put country
Speaker 6: before party or your own personal ambitions, you've got to
Speaker 6: be prepared to lose. And I haven't noticed Tom a
Speaker 6: whole lot of people who are prepared to.
Speaker 4: Richard, there's so many hotspots around the world we could
Speaker 4: benefit from your analysis here. Let's start with the Middle East.
Speaker 4: I know you've had recently someone's perceived as a radical plan,
Speaker 4: a radical suggestion for President Biden about how he should
Speaker 4: deal with mister net Yahu as it relates to what's
Speaker 4: happening in Goazack, you share that with us.
Speaker 6: Yeah, What I basically been saying is he doesn't have
Speaker 6: a partner in this Israeli government or this is really
Speaker 6: prime Minister. All of his efforts at persuading them haven't
Speaker 6: amounted to much of anything. So he's got to go
Speaker 6: over their head. He's got to speak directly to the
Speaker 6: Israeli people about Israel's future. If it wants to remain
Speaker 6: a secure, prosperous Jewish democratic state, it's got to choose
Speaker 6: a different path in Gaza, it's got to choose a
Speaker 6: different path in the West Bank. And I even suggested
Speaker 6: he go to the Kanessa, do it from the floor
Speaker 6: of the Israeli Parliament. Take a page out of bb
Speaker 6: nets and Yahoo's book who came to Washington spoke from
Speaker 6: the Congress to speak against the Iran nuclear deal? But
Speaker 6: I don't quite care whether he does it from the
Speaker 6: Knesse or not. I think, though, what we're actually seeing
Speaker 6: is the administration is moving away from a policy that's
Speaker 6: predicated on persuading bb nets in Yahoo, and they're dealing
Speaker 6: much more with the policy that's either independent, we're going
Speaker 6: to provide aid, we're going to veto this resolution or
Speaker 6: introduce our own and essentially pressuring the Israeli government. So
Speaker 6: I think it's a healthy change.
Speaker 4: What is the status of net Yahu in Israel right now?
Speaker 4: Does he still have the support given how what's happened
Speaker 4: over the last several months.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean the poll show he's quite unpopular. But
Speaker 6: there's only two ways to remove a sitting prime minister,
Speaker 6: and that's through a parliamentary reshuffle or an election. At
Speaker 6: the moment, I don't see a parliamentary reshuffling coming about.
Speaker 6: It's not clear to me that his current coalition partners
Speaker 6: want to dump them, not because they love him, but
Speaker 6: they love being in power. And at the moment, no
Speaker 6: one's there's not a mechanism to get from here to
Speaker 6: new elections. It's possible to bru the government could be
Speaker 6: brought down on any number of issues. If you remember,
Speaker 6: before October seventh, the dividing issue in Israel was about
Speaker 6: the role of the courts and democracy. Now there's big
Speaker 6: debates about whether the ultra Orthodox ought to be conscripted.
Speaker 6: So there's lots of ways, lots of fault lines in
Speaker 6: Israeli politics. But at the moment, like it or not,
Speaker 6: kan Yahoo as Prime Minister.
Speaker 2: Ambassador House, we stagger into April. We have a clear
Speaker 2: image of history of a lame duck Congress. Can we
Speaker 2: have a lame duck State Department, a lame duck foreign policy?
Speaker 6: I think that's too critical because most foreign policy doesn't
Speaker 6: travel through the Congress. I mean the Ukraine situation. The
Speaker 6: funding THEIRTOP is in some ways different because again it
Speaker 6: requires congressional approval. So they're the real issue is what
Speaker 6: is the House of Representatives do? What are the Republicans do?
Speaker 6: But I think in the Middle East, with China and
Speaker 6: so forth, like can a lot of other areas, do
Speaker 6: your presidents enjoy a lot of discretion, a lot of latitude.
Speaker 6: So I don't think it's fair to say that even
Speaker 6: though the State Department, to be honest, is a weak duck,
Speaker 6: most of the energy now in American farm policy doesn't
Speaker 6: come from State.
Speaker 3: I would say the.
Speaker 6: Lion's share comes from the National Security Council. Are some
Speaker 6: of the issues you talk about on this show. I
Speaker 6: would say even the Commerce department counts for a lot.
Speaker 2: I don't want to get into your personal knitting here
Speaker 2: in your forty eight over day, but you know he's
Speaker 2: working seven days a week.
Speaker 4: You know he's slowing down here.
Speaker 2: Did any of the CEOs that greeted mister g in China?
Speaker 2: Did any of them get a host briefing? And if not,
Speaker 2: how do you brief CEOs and confronting the new China?
Speaker 6: They did not in this case. So I spend a
Speaker 6: lot of my day, give them my new life and
Speaker 6: centerviews bucking to CEOs. I think China's probably the single
Speaker 6: most frequently raised issue, Tom. Look, Chi Jinping is courting CEOs.
Speaker 6: He did it in San Francisco in November, if you recall,
Speaker 6: he's doing it now. He is hoping that American CEOs
Speaker 6: essentially become all lobby for what China wants in the
Speaker 6: US relationship, which essentially is fewer towers, lower tariffs, lower
Speaker 6: constraints on investment, lower constraints on trade, and he's hoping
Speaker 6: that he can essentially get them to press the government
Speaker 6: to ease up on China. That's why twenty twenty four.
Speaker 6: I mean, that's what China wants in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 6: What the Biden administration wants is no new hotspot with
Speaker 6: Taiwan or North Korea or anything else. But no, that's
Speaker 6: what this is about. And I think American CEOs need
Speaker 6: to understand that anything to deal with technology is going
Speaker 6: to be constrained with China, and if there's a crisis
Speaker 6: over Taiwan, nothing is immune from political pressure.
Speaker 2: Richard has thank you so much, particularly those comments on
Speaker 2: Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut Anna Wan, she's had a bloomberg
Speaker 2: economics and what will you listen for from the chairman?
Speaker 2: Is this a speech of substance or is this a nuisance?
Speaker 7: By that, I assume you're talking about Powell. Yes, yes,
Speaker 7: I think you know right. So since the FOMC we
Speaker 7: have heard, the most important speeches so far has been Waller,
Speaker 7: and we heard from Waller, who is the more hawkish
Speaker 7: side of the FOMC, saying that while the FOMC is
Speaker 7: not over overreacting to the hot inflation prints in the
Speaker 7: first two months of the year, they must react to it.
Speaker 7: And I think that is the message that would come
Speaker 7: through in powell speech that they're taking, they will be
Speaker 7: taking a very cautious approach to a deliberate approach to
Speaker 7: interpreting the inflation data. That said, tomorrow we are also
Speaker 7: going to get the core PC inflation data. And if
Speaker 7: Powell and everybody on the Wall Street is right, then
Speaker 7: it's going to come in at zero point three percent
Speaker 7: for core PC and two point eight percent for year
Speaker 7: over year, which is the okay inflation number.
Speaker 4: And we had some I guess some look back economic
Speaker 4: data today. The GDP number four the fourth quarter revised,
Speaker 4: our community revised higher three point four percent. The survey
Speaker 4: was three point two percent. We also had continuing claims
Speaker 4: kind of regular line of the expectations. Anything that we
Speaker 4: receive today economic news wise, alter your opinion at all.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I thought the most interesting data today is the GDI.
Speaker 7: So GDI grew at over four point eight percent in
Speaker 7: real terms in the fourth quarter, and as you know,
Speaker 7: the most GDI is supposed to be equal to GDP.
Speaker 7: Yet over the past two years, the biggest, one of
Speaker 7: the biggest puzzle in economics is that they are not.
Speaker 7: And GDI has been finally running below and.
Speaker 4: Can you define GDI from me? And I'm guessing some
Speaker 4: other listeners and viewers.
Speaker 7: Yes, So GDI means gross domestic income and it measures
Speaker 7: the income side of things. So it's supposed to be
Speaker 7: wage compensation plus firms profits plus governments profits that that
Speaker 7: would equal GDP, which measures the expenditure side of things.
Speaker 7: So what we saw in the very very strong GDI
Speaker 7: number for fourth quarter is this big pop in firm
Speaker 7: profits and drilling down into so there's a you know,
Speaker 7: a thirteen percent increase on net operating surflus of firms
Speaker 7: and drilling down it turns out it's a category called
Speaker 7: dividend and business current transfer payments that rose by thirty
Speaker 7: percent on a quarterly seasonal adjusted basis in the fourth
Speaker 7: quarter that drove this giantantic pop in GDI. And what
Speaker 7: that means is it's the stock rally. So I think
Speaker 7: the stock rally and easier financial conditions in stock market
Speaker 7: in the fourth quarter is starting to really show up
Speaker 7: in hard data. So we saw that in GDI today
Speaker 7: and in the Personal Income Report that comes out tomorrow
Speaker 7: we will be paying attention to also the line item
Speaker 7: called personal dividend income.
Speaker 2: You saund like you on a green span of thirty
Speaker 2: years ago, analog simply, here are we going to get
Speaker 2: a nominal GDP of that supports revenue of corporations in America.
Speaker 7: It does looked like that was happening in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 7: Perhaps that was the fundamentals that's driving the stock market rally.
Speaker 2: Okay, Anna, thank you so much, doctor Wong as head
Speaker 2: of all of Bloomberg Economics in America. You look at
Speaker 2: the front pages around the world. Shout out the Globe
Speaker 2: and Mail in Toronto on point yesterday with a speech
Speaker 2: by the Deputy governor the Bank of Canada and Halifax.
Speaker 3: That's how he is. Wow.
Speaker 2: And she ripped apart the Canadian productivity story.
Speaker 3: Well, she tore it. I've never seen a speech like
Speaker 3: that in America. She tore them. People are really upset
Speaker 3: about it. That's your front page look from Canada.
Speaker 2: I did an audible there, at least I didn't mean
Speaker 2: to get out in front of the Globin.
Speaker 3: Man, what do you start?
Speaker 8: That's okay, and welcome back, by the way, thank you.
Speaker 8: So we're starting with this was like our top story today.
Speaker 8: Long time Connecticut US Senator Joe Lieberman passed away yesterday.
Speaker 8: He was eighty two complications from a fall. But the
Speaker 8: reaction from friends and from rivals. They are just starting
Speaker 8: to pour in, so I wanted to get to a
Speaker 8: few of them. You had Al Gore, the former vice
Speaker 8: president who chose Lieberman, you know, and his running mate
Speaker 8: during two thousand election. He said it was an honor
Speaker 8: to stand side by side with him on the campaign trail.
Speaker 8: Then you have former President George W.
Speaker 7: Bush.
Speaker 8: He was the victor with Cheney, you know, over the
Speaker 8: Gore Lieberman ticket. He said, in both loss and victory,
Speaker 8: Joe Lieberman was always a gentleman. And this one I
Speaker 8: find I really enjoyed this one. Senator Lindsay Grahama of
Speaker 8: South Carolina, he was close to Lieberman and Senator John McCain.
Speaker 8: They called themselves the three amigos. He said, the good
Speaker 8: news is that he's in the hands of loving God.
Speaker 8: He said. The bad news John McCain is giving him
Speaker 8: an earful about how screwed up things are. And he
Speaker 8: signed that statement as the last amigos amount here.
Speaker 2: And what is so important, particularly for younger people to
Speaker 2: understand the Senator Lieberman is this was a throwback, Lisa, to.
Speaker 3: What was normal. You had Mario Cuomo, you.
Speaker 2: Had Scoop Jackson, you had hhh, Hubert Humphrey in Minnesota,
Speaker 2: and Joe Lieberman was the centrist you know, became far
Speaker 2: more centrist here from another time in place in what
Speaker 2: so said Paul is his politics is now odd.
Speaker 3: Yeah and singular.
Speaker 4: I mean you think about him and John McCain, two
Speaker 4: ends of the spectrum, but you could just absolutely see
Speaker 4: them after a day in having a cocktail again.
Speaker 3: Yeah, what else do you have here?
Speaker 8: Sure this was an interest from Politico. The Baltimore Bridge design.
Speaker 8: They're saying it likely contributed to that loss of the bridge.
Speaker 8: So the collapse are saying could have been avoided if
Speaker 8: it had this simple fenders that's what they're calling it.
Speaker 8: That could have been standard issue on new bridges since
Speaker 8: the nineteen nineties. So it's installed around the supporting beams.
Speaker 8: That's what these are. Because the ships are getting bigger,
Speaker 8: and that's the issue. You had the Dolly, It was
Speaker 8: a thousand feet long. It had tons and tons of
Speaker 8: cargo on.
Speaker 2: Its changed many cargo things were on top, I mean ten, yeah, twelve,
Speaker 2: fifty stacked high.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I don't know. I don't know how that works. I
Speaker 4: don't know how they stay afloat. I don't know. How
Speaker 4: they don't flip over out in the open sea. It's
Speaker 4: just extraordinary. But it's I can't imagine designing a bridge
Speaker 4: to withstand a ship running into it.
Speaker 8: Right, And that's the problem. The ships weren't as big
Speaker 8: back then when you know these were designed. The fenders
Speaker 8: were started back when the when the bridge was designed.
Speaker 8: But it makes some sense, but they just didn't put
Speaker 8: them on them this time. Okay, so this is from
Speaker 8: tech Crunch LinkedIn. Something different you might see on LinkedIn.
Speaker 8: They're having short form videos, so similar to TikTok. So
Speaker 8: a lot of people are starting doing you know, Instagram, YouTube, Snapchat, Netflix,
Speaker 8: they all do these short form videos. So here's where
Speaker 8: you find it. If you go over to LinkedIn, it's
Speaker 8: in their navigation bar, new video tab, And then when
Speaker 8: you click on it, you start seeing this little feed
Speaker 8: of all these you know, short form videos that go
Speaker 8: by and you can swipe through it, you can like it,
Speaker 8: you can comment, you can share it. So it's very
Speaker 8: similar to TikTok. How it can be different for LinkedIn
Speaker 8: is the question. I guess you have to focus on
Speaker 8: careers and professionalism, but I don't know, Tom, you got
Speaker 8: to start working on those short short stores medium.
Speaker 2: This is an untold story then social as Microsoft took
Speaker 2: over LinkedIn, and I would suggest as an amateur that
Speaker 2: very quietly they have changed it. I would editorialize, they've
Speaker 2: improved it. And it's shocking the difference in flow now
Speaker 2: between LinkedIn and mister Musk's X, which I still call
Speaker 2: Twitter would but they're going to TikTok LinkedIn?
Speaker 3: Is that what you're telling me?
Speaker 4: It's all about video short form.
Speaker 8: Yes, it keeps people entertaining doing it is.
Speaker 2: Too they you know, we're thinking of doing Paul Sweeney's
Speaker 2: short forms on YouTube.
Speaker 4: T monetize.
Speaker 3: What else do you have?
Speaker 8: All Right, Finally we're working less on Fridays than we
Speaker 8: used to. No shocker here, but so the rush hours
Speaker 8: back in the midweek, right, you have everything buzzing, you know,
Speaker 8: but on Fridays it's a little bit quieter, sometimes a
Speaker 8: ghost town, a lot of people working from home. But
Speaker 8: here's the study. It says that the average worker now
Speaker 8: signs off an hour earlier on Friday. So that's what
Speaker 8: they're starting to see. But they're saying it's okay. They're
Speaker 8: giving the green light the thumbs up because they're saying
Speaker 8: it helps with productivity. People are taking it easier, so
Speaker 8: it supercharges them. It gives them an extra boost. They're happier.
Speaker 8: But that's what they're seeing.
Speaker 4: I've given up. So I've given up and I'm flex
Speaker 4: all you want today.
Speaker 2: I'll say this, the productivity of France is about equivalent
Speaker 2: to the United States, and they work a lot less.
Speaker 2: There is something to what you just said, Lisa, that
Speaker 2: somehow if you work less you get the same or
Speaker 2: more done.
Speaker 3: That's what the academic says. Interesting. I'm really torn here.
Speaker 3: I'm really troubled.
Speaker 2: What I will say is with all the technology, maybe
Speaker 2: that marginal three hours on Friday, Paul is a weekend.
Speaker 3: Yeah, effort.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I don't know. You've said it all
Speaker 4: long time. Companies adapt, people adapt, systems adapt, and maybe
Speaker 4: that's just kind of what we're doing here, adapting.
Speaker 2: So well where we all here five days a week, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 8: Well as picking up as we talking, you see people
Speaker 8: passing by here outside.
Speaker 3: It is picking up, not right now, but.
Speaker 8: There are people before going through.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Lisa Mateo.
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