1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is 11 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 2: my equity conversation of the day, so I'm going to 12 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 2: have it. 13 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 3: Immediately on the podcast. 14 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 2: Single best idea, which we'll get out here in the 15 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 2: number of hours. Julian, Emmanuel, you and ed Heiman are 16 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,959 Speaker 2: sitting around having an He's got that black penalt, He's 17 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 2: trying to. 18 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 3: Get your white shirt dirty. 19 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 2: You're writing up the ed Heeiman evercore Isi. Note, what 20 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 2: is the surprise of Hymen and Emmanuel in the last 21 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: ninety days? 22 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,839 Speaker 3: Ed Heeyman is rarely surprised. What's been the surprise? 23 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 1: I think ed has been surprised by this stickiness of inflation. 24 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 1: And if you think about what the Fed's narrative has 25 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: been since the December pivot, you should be surprised by 26 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 1: it because it doesn't make sense with that conversation, with 27 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 1: any precedent that we are familiar with with regard to inflation. 28 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: Ed still sees the trajectory. As you know, he's been 29 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 1: aggressive and early on the inflation falling story. He thinks 30 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 1: this is just a bump in the road, but likely 31 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: takes that sort of getting to that last mile a 32 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: week or economy in the second half. 33 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 4: All right, So Julie, for this market here as long 34 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 4: as we can remember, TeX's been leading this market, big text, 35 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 4: been leading this market upward and down. Or if you 36 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 4: think about that twenty twenty two, can tech still lead. 37 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 3: This market going forward? 38 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: Well, tech can still lead the market. But what we've 39 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 1: seen over the last several weeks in particular, but actually 40 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: this goes back a number of months, is record dispersion 41 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: among stocks. 42 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 3: Think about it. 43 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 1: Right before the bear market in twenty twenty two, it 44 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: was called fang. Then when we started turning in twenty 45 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,519 Speaker 1: twenty three, we got to the magnificent seven. Now it's 46 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 1: ostensibly really only the Magnificent four. And what troubles us 47 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: when we look at the second quarter expecting more volatility, 48 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: is that Magnificent four is starting to look a little 49 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: less magnificent. 50 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 2: To be clear, here, this is the hallmark of you 51 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 2: and Ed Hyman. You're in the market. I don't hear 52 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 2: go to cash. 53 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, no, absolutely absolutely not. Look, this is one 54 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: of these times again, and you know, you go back 55 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 1: and you think of the times where there may have 56 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: been a motion reasons, there may have been stress reasons, 57 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,519 Speaker 1: And March of twenty twenty is the purpose. 58 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 3: I was thinking. 59 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 2: October of eighty six, Lenny Dykch's home run in Game three. 60 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 3: For the Mets. The ball has never come down. It 61 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 3: went over. 62 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 2: Everett was lost over marblehead. I mean, what the Mets 63 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 2: did in nineteen eighty six, we've never gotten over. 64 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,399 Speaker 1: I'm staring at your red Sox jacket, Tom, and all 65 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: I can say is Bill Buckner, and I knew you 66 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: were expecting that. 67 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 2: Duncasses out here, So Brama walked by with a white sign. 68 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 3: Bill Buckner, it's opening. 69 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 5: Paul, save us here, Julian, you and your strategist brethren 70 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 5: on Wall Street. I see you guys trip it over 71 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 5: each other trying to keep raising your ear end targets 72 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 5: for twenty twenty four. 73 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 4: How are you thinking about valuation here? 74 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 3: This is the arch question, Paul. This is a single 75 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 3: best question right there. 76 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: We're taking a different tack here, Paul, okay, and ended 77 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: its earnings and valuation driven as it should be. Now 78 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: I will say is that my focus on valuation has 79 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 1: been unlike anything I recall in my career. Frankly, I 80 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 1: was managing money in Y two K. So that's why 81 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: the first thing we have to do is step back 82 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 1: and say, the market is exuberant, but it is nowhere 83 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 1: near irrational. Twenty eight times what you saw in Y 84 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: two K, which would imply sixty two hundred or so 85 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 1: in the S and B is exuberant. But from our 86 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: point of view, with the accumulated sort of perfection priced 87 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 1: in and the possibility that the FED isn't going to 88 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: be able to deliver, and that eleven percent earnings growth 89 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 1: which has been basically the baseline for the last couple 90 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:45,359 Speaker 1: of months, has downside as we think it does. The 91 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 1: way the way you want to think about this is 92 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: how do you stay in your core positions with perhaps 93 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 1: a tilt towards defense and not get scared because the 94 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 1: history of making a sub our returns in investing comes 95 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: from selling into down markets, as opposed to just sort 96 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 1: of thinking about how you position when things are good 97 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: as they are. 98 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 4: Now, do we still chase this market? I mean, if 99 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 4: I chase this market, I feel like and I'm I'm 100 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 4: Joe portfolio manager out there, Joe an investor with my 101 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 4: four to one K, I feel like I have to 102 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 4: be in those magnificent four or five names, whatever they are. 103 00:05:24,720 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 3: Well. 104 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 1: So, actually, the amazing thing is the options market is 105 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: this is one of these very rare times where you're 106 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: allowed to have your cake and eat it too, because 107 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: the combination of this incredible retail investor FOMO. Remember the 108 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: market is being moved in large part by zero days 109 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: to expiration options trading on the part of the public, 110 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: where you control a million dollars worth of stock for 111 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 1: less than ten thousand dollars and the position closes every day. 112 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 1: That kind of FOMO and five percent interest rates give 113 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 1: you the ability to stay in those mag seven names 114 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: but actually have downside protection. 115 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 2: Julian Emmanuel, I think he's trying to get me to 116 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 2: be my first trade. Thank you so much for the 117 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 2: evercore I I We'll get him back here for a 118 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 2: much longer conversation in the coming days. The little window 119 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 2: into the childhood of Tom Keene. It was a twisted 120 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 2: and strange childhood. I would read the Wall Street Journal 121 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,279 Speaker 2: the day after I would sit in the pretty fancy 122 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:38,840 Speaker 2: dining room, and my father would read today's Wall Street Journal, 123 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 2: and I would read the one before, which was folded 124 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 2: up neatly and with engineering blue and red pencil and 125 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,239 Speaker 2: probably with an Oberlin napkin on it from my mother 126 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 2: would be underlined Centrist political theory, and it started with 127 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 2: Scoop Jackson, HHH, Ed Burkham Massachusetts and others. 128 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 3: Nobody is riven. 129 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:06,039 Speaker 2: The centrist conversation forward like Richard Haas serving multiple presidents, 130 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 2: multiple parties and Paul There is a interview, I should say, 131 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 2: a conversation with Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut where Hass 132 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 2: is impossibly young in two thousand and four, and we 133 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 2: are so honored today to bring invest in or Hassan 134 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 2: to talk about our. 135 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 3: Modern centrist Joe Lieberman. 136 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 2: Boy, are we starving Richard Haass for centrist politics? 137 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 6: I have this vision, Tom, that it's only a matter 138 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 6: of time before the Post Office issues a stamp. And 139 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 6: it's a series of centrists, and it basically has a 140 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 6: thing endangered species. And Joe Lieberman was one of the best. 141 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:50,119 Speaker 2: I look at his politics and his courage at the time, 142 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 2: and a lot of heat and critique of moving left 143 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 2: to right. Do you have a tendency now to see 144 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 2: people from the polarized right moving to the center or 145 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 2: is that a fiction for another day and age? 146 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 6: I think it's mostly a fiction for another day and age. 147 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 6: Most of the incentives or pressures in American politics, from money, 148 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 6: to political support to attention, is to move, if I 149 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 6: may use a football metaphor in this opening day of baseball, 150 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 6: towards the end zones rather than the middle of the field. 151 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 6: Takes a lot of guts. It takes off in a 152 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 6: willingness even to lose. If you're going to put country 153 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 6: before party or your own personal ambitions, you've got to 154 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 6: be prepared to lose. And I haven't noticed Tom a 155 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 6: whole lot of people who are prepared to. 156 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 4: Richard, there's so many hotspots around the world we could 157 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:42,319 Speaker 4: benefit from your analysis here. Let's start with the Middle East. 158 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 4: I know you've had recently someone's perceived as a radical plan, 159 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 4: a radical suggestion for President Biden about how he should 160 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 4: deal with mister net Yahu as it relates to what's 161 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 4: happening in Goazack, you share that with us. 162 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 6: Yeah, What I basically been saying is he doesn't have 163 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 6: a partner in this Israeli government or this is really 164 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 6: prime Minister. All of his efforts at persuading them haven't 165 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,200 Speaker 6: amounted to much of anything. So he's got to go 166 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 6: over their head. He's got to speak directly to the 167 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 6: Israeli people about Israel's future. If it wants to remain 168 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 6: a secure, prosperous Jewish democratic state, it's got to choose 169 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 6: a different path in Gaza, it's got to choose a 170 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 6: different path in the West Bank. And I even suggested 171 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 6: he go to the Kanessa, do it from the floor 172 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 6: of the Israeli Parliament. Take a page out of bb 173 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 6: nets and Yahoo's book who came to Washington spoke from 174 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 6: the Congress to speak against the Iran nuclear deal? But 175 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 6: I don't quite care whether he does it from the 176 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 6: Knesse or not. I think, though, what we're actually seeing 177 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 6: is the administration is moving away from a policy that's 178 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 6: predicated on persuading bb nets in Yahoo, and they're dealing 179 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,320 Speaker 6: much more with the policy that's either independent, we're going 180 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 6: to provide aid, we're going to veto this resolution or 181 00:09:55,440 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 6: introduce our own and essentially pressuring the Israeli government. So 182 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 6: I think it's a healthy change. 183 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 4: What is the status of net Yahu in Israel right now? 184 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 4: Does he still have the support given how what's happened 185 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 4: over the last several months. 186 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean the poll show he's quite unpopular. But 187 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 6: there's only two ways to remove a sitting prime minister, 188 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 6: and that's through a parliamentary reshuffle or an election. At 189 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,439 Speaker 6: the moment, I don't see a parliamentary reshuffling coming about. 190 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 6: It's not clear to me that his current coalition partners 191 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 6: want to dump them, not because they love him, but 192 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:35,680 Speaker 6: they love being in power. And at the moment, no 193 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,079 Speaker 6: one's there's not a mechanism to get from here to 194 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 6: new elections. It's possible to bru the government could be 195 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 6: brought down on any number of issues. If you remember, 196 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 6: before October seventh, the dividing issue in Israel was about 197 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 6: the role of the courts and democracy. Now there's big 198 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 6: debates about whether the ultra Orthodox ought to be conscripted. 199 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 6: So there's lots of ways, lots of fault lines in 200 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 6: Israeli politics. But at the moment, like it or not, 201 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 6: kan Yahoo as Prime Minister. 202 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 2: Ambassador House, we stagger into April. We have a clear 203 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 2: image of history of a lame duck Congress. Can we 204 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 2: have a lame duck State Department, a lame duck foreign policy? 205 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 6: I think that's too critical because most foreign policy doesn't 206 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 6: travel through the Congress. I mean the Ukraine situation. The 207 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 6: funding THEIRTOP is in some ways different because again it 208 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 6: requires congressional approval. So they're the real issue is what 209 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 6: is the House of Representatives do? What are the Republicans do? 210 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 6: But I think in the Middle East, with China and 211 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 6: so forth, like can a lot of other areas, do 212 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 6: your presidents enjoy a lot of discretion, a lot of latitude. 213 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 6: So I don't think it's fair to say that even 214 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 6: though the State Department, to be honest, is a weak duck, 215 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 6: most of the energy now in American farm policy doesn't 216 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 6: come from State. 217 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:48,319 Speaker 3: I would say the. 218 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 6: Lion's share comes from the National Security Council. Are some 219 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 6: of the issues you talk about on this show. I 220 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 6: would say even the Commerce department counts for a lot. 221 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 2: I don't want to get into your personal knitting here 222 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 2: in your forty eight over day, but you know he's 223 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 2: working seven days a week. 224 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 4: You know he's slowing down here. 225 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 2: Did any of the CEOs that greeted mister g in China? 226 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 2: Did any of them get a host briefing? And if not, 227 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 2: how do you brief CEOs and confronting the new China? 228 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 6: They did not in this case. So I spend a 229 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 6: lot of my day, give them my new life and 230 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 6: centerviews bucking to CEOs. I think China's probably the single 231 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:31,199 Speaker 6: most frequently raised issue, Tom. Look, Chi Jinping is courting CEOs. 232 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 6: He did it in San Francisco in November, if you recall, 233 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,000 Speaker 6: he's doing it now. He is hoping that American CEOs 234 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 6: essentially become all lobby for what China wants in the 235 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 6: US relationship, which essentially is fewer towers, lower tariffs, lower 236 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 6: constraints on investment, lower constraints on trade, and he's hoping 237 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 6: that he can essentially get them to press the government 238 00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 6: to ease up on China. That's why twenty twenty four. 239 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 6: I mean, that's what China wants in twenty twenty four. 240 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 6: What the Biden administration wants is no new hotspot with 241 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 6: Taiwan or North Korea or anything else. But no, that's 242 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:15,079 Speaker 6: what this is about. And I think American CEOs need 243 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 6: to understand that anything to deal with technology is going 244 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 6: to be constrained with China, and if there's a crisis 245 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 6: over Taiwan, nothing is immune from political pressure. 246 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 2: Richard has thank you so much, particularly those comments on 247 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 2: Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut Anna Wan, she's had a bloomberg 248 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 2: economics and what will you listen for from the chairman? 249 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 2: Is this a speech of substance or is this a nuisance? 250 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 7: By that, I assume you're talking about Powell. Yes, yes, 251 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,840 Speaker 7: I think you know right. So since the FOMC we 252 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 7: have heard, the most important speeches so far has been Waller, 253 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 7: and we heard from Waller, who is the more hawkish 254 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 7: side of the FOMC, saying that while the FOMC is 255 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 7: not over overreacting to the hot inflation prints in the 256 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,959 Speaker 7: first two months of the year, they must react to it. 257 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,559 Speaker 7: And I think that is the message that would come 258 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 7: through in powell speech that they're taking, they will be 259 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 7: taking a very cautious approach to a deliberate approach to 260 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 7: interpreting the inflation data. That said, tomorrow we are also 261 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 7: going to get the core PC inflation data. And if 262 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 7: Powell and everybody on the Wall Street is right, then 263 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 7: it's going to come in at zero point three percent 264 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 7: for core PC and two point eight percent for year 265 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 7: over year, which is the okay inflation number. 266 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 4: And we had some I guess some look back economic 267 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 4: data today. The GDP number four the fourth quarter revised, 268 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 4: our community revised higher three point four percent. The survey 269 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 4: was three point two percent. We also had continuing claims 270 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 4: kind of regular line of the expectations. Anything that we 271 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 4: receive today economic news wise, alter your opinion at all. 272 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, I thought the most interesting data today is the GDI. 273 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 7: So GDI grew at over four point eight percent in 274 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 7: real terms in the fourth quarter, and as you know, 275 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 7: the most GDI is supposed to be equal to GDP. 276 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 7: Yet over the past two years, the biggest, one of 277 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 7: the biggest puzzle in economics is that they are not. 278 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 7: And GDI has been finally running below and. 279 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 4: Can you define GDI from me? And I'm guessing some 280 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 4: other listeners and viewers. 281 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 7: Yes, So GDI means gross domestic income and it measures 282 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 7: the income side of things. So it's supposed to be 283 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 7: wage compensation plus firms profits plus governments profits that that 284 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 7: would equal GDP, which measures the expenditure side of things. 285 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 7: So what we saw in the very very strong GDI 286 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 7: number for fourth quarter is this big pop in firm 287 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 7: profits and drilling down into so there's a you know, 288 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 7: a thirteen percent increase on net operating surflus of firms 289 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 7: and drilling down it turns out it's a category called 290 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 7: dividend and business current transfer payments that rose by thirty 291 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 7: percent on a quarterly seasonal adjusted basis in the fourth 292 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 7: quarter that drove this giantantic pop in GDI. And what 293 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 7: that means is it's the stock rally. So I think 294 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 7: the stock rally and easier financial conditions in stock market 295 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 7: in the fourth quarter is starting to really show up 296 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 7: in hard data. So we saw that in GDI today 297 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 7: and in the Personal Income Report that comes out tomorrow 298 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 7: we will be paying attention to also the line item 299 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 7: called personal dividend income. 300 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 2: You saund like you on a green span of thirty 301 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 2: years ago, analog simply, here are we going to get 302 00:16:56,520 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 2: a nominal GDP of that supports revenue of corporations in America. 303 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 7: It does looked like that was happening in the fourth quarter. 304 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 7: Perhaps that was the fundamentals that's driving the stock market rally. 305 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 2: Okay, Anna, thank you so much, doctor Wong as head 306 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 2: of all of Bloomberg Economics in America. You look at 307 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 2: the front pages around the world. Shout out the Globe 308 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 2: and Mail in Toronto on point yesterday with a speech 309 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 2: by the Deputy governor the Bank of Canada and Halifax. 310 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 3: That's how he is. Wow. 311 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 2: And she ripped apart the Canadian productivity story. 312 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 3: Well, she tore it. I've never seen a speech like 313 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,120 Speaker 3: that in America. She tore them. People are really upset 314 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 3: about it. That's your front page look from Canada. 315 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 2: I did an audible there, at least I didn't mean 316 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 2: to get out in front of the Globin. 317 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 3: Man, what do you start? 318 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 8: That's okay, and welcome back, by the way, thank you. 319 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,159 Speaker 8: So we're starting with this was like our top story today. 320 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 8: Long time Connecticut US Senator Joe Lieberman passed away yesterday. 321 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,399 Speaker 8: He was eighty two complications from a fall. But the 322 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 8: reaction from friends and from rivals. They are just starting 323 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 8: to pour in, so I wanted to get to a 324 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 8: few of them. You had Al Gore, the former vice 325 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 8: president who chose Lieberman, you know, and his running mate 326 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 8: during two thousand election. He said it was an honor 327 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 8: to stand side by side with him on the campaign trail. 328 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 8: Then you have former President George W. 329 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 7: Bush. 330 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 8: He was the victor with Cheney, you know, over the 331 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:35,679 Speaker 8: Gore Lieberman ticket. He said, in both loss and victory, 332 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 8: Joe Lieberman was always a gentleman. And this one I 333 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 8: find I really enjoyed this one. Senator Lindsay Grahama of 334 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 8: South Carolina, he was close to Lieberman and Senator John McCain. 335 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 8: They called themselves the three amigos. He said, the good 336 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 8: news is that he's in the hands of loving God. 337 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 8: He said. The bad news John McCain is giving him 338 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 8: an earful about how screwed up things are. And he 339 00:18:56,040 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 8: signed that statement as the last amigos amount here. 340 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,919 Speaker 2: And what is so important, particularly for younger people to 341 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 2: understand the Senator Lieberman is this was a throwback, Lisa, to. 342 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 3: What was normal. You had Mario Cuomo, you. 343 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 2: Had Scoop Jackson, you had hhh, Hubert Humphrey in Minnesota, 344 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 2: and Joe Lieberman was the centrist you know, became far 345 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 2: more centrist here from another time in place in what 346 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 2: so said Paul is his politics is now odd. 347 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 3: Yeah and singular. 348 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 4: I mean you think about him and John McCain, two 349 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:40,080 Speaker 4: ends of the spectrum, but you could just absolutely see 350 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,360 Speaker 4: them after a day in having a cocktail again. 351 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:44,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, what else do you have here? 352 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 8: Sure this was an interest from Politico. The Baltimore Bridge design. 353 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 8: They're saying it likely contributed to that loss of the bridge. 354 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 8: So the collapse are saying could have been avoided if 355 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 8: it had this simple fenders that's what they're calling it. 356 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 8: That could have been standard issue on new bridges since 357 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,920 Speaker 8: the nineteen nineties. So it's installed around the supporting beams. 358 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 8: That's what these are. Because the ships are getting bigger, 359 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 8: and that's the issue. You had the Dolly, It was 360 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,679 Speaker 8: a thousand feet long. It had tons and tons of 361 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:11,359 Speaker 8: cargo on. 362 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 2: Its changed many cargo things were on top, I mean ten, yeah, twelve, 363 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 2: fifty stacked high. 364 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 7: Yeah. 365 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 4: I don't know. I don't know how that works. I 366 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 4: don't know how they stay afloat. I don't know. How 367 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 4: they don't flip over out in the open sea. It's 368 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 4: just extraordinary. But it's I can't imagine designing a bridge 369 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 4: to withstand a ship running into it. 370 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 8: Right, And that's the problem. The ships weren't as big 371 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 8: back then when you know these were designed. The fenders 372 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 8: were started back when the when the bridge was designed. 373 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 8: But it makes some sense, but they just didn't put 374 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 8: them on them this time. Okay, so this is from 375 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 8: tech Crunch LinkedIn. Something different you might see on LinkedIn. 376 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 8: They're having short form videos, so similar to TikTok. So 377 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 8: a lot of people are starting doing you know, Instagram, YouTube, Snapchat, Netflix, 378 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 8: they all do these short form videos. So here's where 379 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 8: you find it. If you go over to LinkedIn, it's 380 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 8: in their navigation bar, new video tab, And then when 381 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,439 Speaker 8: you click on it, you start seeing this little feed 382 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,840 Speaker 8: of all these you know, short form videos that go 383 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 8: by and you can swipe through it, you can like it, 384 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 8: you can comment, you can share it. So it's very 385 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 8: similar to TikTok. How it can be different for LinkedIn 386 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 8: is the question. I guess you have to focus on 387 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 8: careers and professionalism, but I don't know, Tom, you got 388 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,639 Speaker 8: to start working on those short short stores medium. 389 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 2: This is an untold story then social as Microsoft took 390 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 2: over LinkedIn, and I would suggest as an amateur that 391 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 2: very quietly they have changed it. I would editorialize, they've 392 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:38,200 Speaker 2: improved it. And it's shocking the difference in flow now 393 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 2: between LinkedIn and mister Musk's X, which I still call 394 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 2: Twitter would but they're going to TikTok LinkedIn? 395 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 3: Is that what you're telling me? 396 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 4: It's all about video short form. 397 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 8: Yes, it keeps people entertaining doing it is. 398 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 2: Too they you know, we're thinking of doing Paul Sweeney's 399 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 2: short forms on YouTube. 400 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:58,679 Speaker 4: T monetize. 401 00:21:58,920 --> 00:21:59,639 Speaker 3: What else do you have? 402 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,000 Speaker 8: All Right, Finally we're working less on Fridays than we 403 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 8: used to. No shocker here, but so the rush hours 404 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,719 Speaker 8: back in the midweek, right, you have everything buzzing, you know, 405 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 8: but on Fridays it's a little bit quieter, sometimes a 406 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 8: ghost town, a lot of people working from home. But 407 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 8: here's the study. It says that the average worker now 408 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 8: signs off an hour earlier on Friday. So that's what 409 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 8: they're starting to see. But they're saying it's okay. They're 410 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,120 Speaker 8: giving the green light the thumbs up because they're saying 411 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 8: it helps with productivity. People are taking it easier, so 412 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 8: it supercharges them. It gives them an extra boost. They're happier. 413 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 8: But that's what they're seeing. 414 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,719 Speaker 4: I've given up. So I've given up and I'm flex 415 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 4: all you want today. 416 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 2: I'll say this, the productivity of France is about equivalent 417 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 2: to the United States, and they work a lot less. 418 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 2: There is something to what you just said, Lisa, that 419 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 2: somehow if you work less you get the same or 420 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 2: more done. 421 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 3: That's what the academic says. Interesting. I'm really torn here. 422 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 3: I'm really troubled. 423 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 2: What I will say is with all the technology, maybe 424 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 2: that marginal three hours on Friday, Paul is a weekend. 425 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, effort. 426 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:12,919 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I don't know. You've said it all 427 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 4: long time. Companies adapt, people adapt, systems adapt, and maybe 428 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 4: that's just kind of what we're doing here, adapting. 429 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 2: So well where we all here five days a week, Yeah, exactly. 430 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,160 Speaker 8: Well as picking up as we talking, you see people 431 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 8: passing by here outside. 432 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 3: It is picking up, not right now, but. 433 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 8: There are people before going through. 434 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 3: Thank you, Lisa Mateo. 435 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast bringing you the best 436 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 437 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. 438 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 3: Visit the Bloomberg. 439 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 2: Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings 440 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 2: from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters 441 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 2: in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 442 00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:00,439 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 443 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,760 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.